Talk Elections

Just curious on opinions.  Obviously there are things we don't know yet that will impact on this, but just an early ballpark.

I could see 5-9% potentially if he gets enough attention but not much more than that.

Less than 5%

Less than half of Gary Johnson 2016.

.2%

Lmao.

In all seriousness, less than 3% generously. Do people seriously think a fiscally right wing (like, one even farther right than the GOP’s economic policy) and socially liberal agenda has mass appeal?

1-2%.

2% at most, but that may well be decisive in close swing states. The 2016 Libertarian ticket was theoretically strong, considering that it had two former governors, as opposed to random Some Dude freaks. Yes, Johnson made himself look like an idiot, but that didn't stop Trump at any point. They still only got 3% despite running against historically unpopular Democratic and Republican candidates. Howard Schultz has even less appeal than Gary Johnson, and the 2020 Democrat will most likely be more popular than Hillary. He will absolutely not win any electoral votes, and the only effect he may have on the race is spoiling it.

1-3%.

Less than 2%

1-2%. There is no market for his type of politics, and Schultz is literally Some Rich Dude. Trump had been a household name for decades and had toyed with the idea of running for president many times before.

It's interesting, because the opposite (fiscally left wing, socially conservative) really could have mass appeal.  Yet there's never an independent candidate proposing to run on that platform.

Less than 1%

Perot 92 levels.

0.3%

The state where he will do the state is likely to be the Washington state (since Starbucks' headquarters are in Seattle), so it should not cause so much problem for any of the two nominees of the 2 major parties.

1.5-3% unless he is able to somehow get into the heated, but the major parties will make sure that doesn’t happen. If he did get into the debates, 10-20 %.

He is running for the "hate Trump but would vote for him over the Dem" vote, so somewhere around 7-10%.

4-7%

How much fat is in nonfat milk?

Same percent as that.

What about soy “milk”?

2-3% against an establishment Dem, 3-5% against Warren, 4-6% against Sanders.

same

He might beat Gary Johnson's numbers if he's lucky.

0.5% or so. He runs behind the Libertarian nominee.

Given that he probably won't get ballot access in CA, TX, or NY, it's hard to see how his vote total exceeds that.

Edit: NY is easier than I thought, but FL is tougher.

Major hurdles:

CA: 1% of registered voters (nearly 200k) by August 2020.

TX: 1% of voters in last presidential election (~90k) by May 2020.

FL: 1% of registered voters (upwards of 120k) by July.

NC: 2% of total votes for governor (~94k) by June.


I see no way he makes NC, for example.

For FL and NC, are those months for this year?

2020.

Ah. Ok. That’s a lot better. Aren’t there some states where it’s easier to make a new party? I think Nader and McMullin had to do that in some states.

If Schultz is serious (if), he should put 10 million aside for a massive bribery campaign against Libertarian Party delegates. It wouldn't even be counter to LP activists ideas to sell out for cash. That'd get him on the ballot everywhere.

Less than 1 percent. He won't get on the ballot in almost any big state.

1% at most. No one cares about this guy and he will have no appeal to any significant voter demographic.

If he's willing to spend a good chunk of his fortune like Perot, I could see him getting as high as 10-15%.

Heck, with that money he could do the same thing with Green Party state contests/national convention and do the same thing. Get both ballot lines just by buying the time of people in places like Delaware which have literally dozens of people participating in the state contest. Just a matter of finding a hundred or so folks who don't mind pretending to be Green Party activists for an afternoon. Have them support the intended delegates.

The Green Party probably wouldn't even think of trying to divine why a bunch more people than usual showed up as they'd be happy to finally have a few more names to put on the mailing list. So probably pretty good odds he'd be able to get away with it and buy out the Green nomination. Or at least have a good go at it. They do have a whole bunch of delegates that just kind of pop into existence from the states that don't have contests. Still wonder how that works...

In a way that was George Wallace's campaign; pro-segregationist, but a normal New Deal Democrat on policy issues. He had more mass appeal than any 3rd party candidate has had since, so that proves your point

If he runs, there will be a #BoycottStarbucks movement among the left.

Anyway, I really don't see him getting more than 5% at the most.  Hillary Clinton won't be on the ballot, and Donald Trump will be on the ballot.  Provided the Democratic nominee is not hated more than Hillary (spoiler alert: he/she won't be), Shultz will be unable to get more than 5%, and that's being generous.  At this point, most Democratic voters don't see a third party candidate as a viable option since we all saw what sitting it out/voting for someone else did for us in 2016--the presumption that Hillary was going to win was strong enough so that a lot of people simply voted for Stein or someone else, or didn't vote at all; that won't be the case in 2020.

Could he do damage to the Democratic candidate?  Sure.  But unless something changes in our political landscape AND the Democratic nominee is utterly terrible, then I don't see a bunch of liberal voters swinging toward a candidate they all know won't win and they all realize would swing the election to Trump.

On the other hand, I could see a genuine case to be made that Shultz would attract a lot of Trump 2016 voters who are disappointed with his first term but can't bring themselves to vote Democratic.  He could wind up doing more damage to Trump.

How the hell is Schultz going to get signatures of 89,932 Texan registered voters who didn't vote in either the Republican or Democratic Presidential Primary of 2020 by late May of that year?

The guy's platform is basically "don't raise my taxes", lol. Very appealing to middle class Americans.