Talk Elections

For discussion of all Canadian by-elections (federal and provincial) in 2019. In the interest of clarity they should be in a separate thread and not in the one for 2018.

Ottawa city council votes to hold a by-election in Rideau-Rockcliffe Ward (for April 15) to fill the vacancy of outgoing councillor Tobi Nussbaum, who has been appointed as the CEO of the National Capital Commission.

Nussbaum was a centre-left Liberal, who first won the seat in 2014, defeating former regional chair Peter Clark, a conservative who had only won in 2010 due to a massive vote split with 26% of the vote.

The ward is one of the city's "urban" wards, so it could be won by a progressive, though it typically votes Liberal on a provincial and federal level. It includes the very wealthy Rockcliffe Park neighbourhood, but it doesn't have a very large population.

I know it was discussed in the other forum, but today is Nanaimo by-election in BC.  This could be critical since if the NDP hold it, then they will likely last through this year, but if the BC Liberals pick it up possibility of a spring election.  Greens have already warned if NDP loses this, they will withdraw support although Weaver has made threats before only to pull back.  Notwithstanding Mainstreet's poll, I still think the NDP has a slight edge based on the history of the riding.  But the BC Liberals could pull off an upset for two reasons:

1.  By-elections typically tend to have low turnouts and those angry at the government are more motivated to show up than those happy with the job they are doing.
2.  By-elections skew heavily towards older voters who most polls show BC Liberals on a provincewide basis are leading while younger voters where NDP has a strong lead tend to be less likely to show up in by-elections as opposed to general elections.

I think if this were a general election, I am pretty sure it would go NDP as by-elections take on different dynamics and although the NDP has angered some, they haven't had any major screw ups and most who strongly dislike them probably never voted NDP to begin with and never would.  Amongst the 40% who voted for them in May 2017, I get the impression most of them are pretty happy with how they've governed, while most of the 40% who voted BC Liberal are not and Greens are a mix.

Had John Turmel run in the Nanaimo byelection, he would have won. :(

First two polls reporting

Lib 92
NDP 79
Green 13
Conservative 6
Other 2

3 polls

Lib 164
NDP 132
Green 21
Conservative 9
Other 3

4 polls

Lib 202
NDP 176
Green 28
Conservative 11
Other 3

5 polls

Lib 236
NDP 261
Green 35
Conservative 14
Other 5

7 polls

Lib 289
NDP 398
Green 58
Conservative 17
Other 7

11 polls

Lib: 414
NDP: 644
Green: 96
Con: 25
Libertarian: 23
Van Isle: 7

The Libertarian candidate got 22 votes in the last 4 polls, only got 1 vote in the first 7 polls.

14 polls

Lib: 579
NDP: 875
Green: 131
Conservative: 33
Other: 32

16 polls

Lib: 728
NDP: 995
Green: 165
Con: 38
Other: 32

22 polls

Lib: 1,260
NDP: 1,475
Green: 221
Con: 61
Libertarian: 29
Van Isle: 9

26 polls

Lib: 1,706
NDP: 1,880
Green: 284
Con: 72
Libertarian: 32
Van Isle: 11

31 polls
Lib: 1,971
NDP: 2,321
Green: 360
Conservative: 87
Libertarian: 33
Van Isle: 11

33 polls

Liberal: 2,023
NDP: 2,426
Green: 380
Conservative: 92
Libertarian: 35
Van Isle: 12

40 polls

Liberal: 2,392
NDP: 3,077
Green: 473
Conservative: 111
Libertarian: 38
Van Isle: 18

43 polls

Liberal: 2,717
NDP: 3,495
Green: 526
Conservative: 122
Libertarian: 40
Van Isle: 18

46 polls

Liberal: 3,080
NDP: 3,838
Green: 573
Conservative: 133
Libertarian: 45
Van Isle: 23

51 polls

Liberal: 3,353
NDP: 4,180
Green: 608
Conservative: 147
Libertarian: 46
Van Isle: 25

Looks like much of the green support tactically voted NDP.

53 polls

Liberal: 3,510
NDP: 4,366
Green: 629
Conservative: 165
Libertarian: 47
Van Isle: 27

58 polls

Liberal: 3,844
NDP: 4,780
Green: 696
Conservative: 178
Libertarian 53
Van Isle: 35

Van Isle Party momentum!

60 polls

Liberal: 4,120
NDP: 5,054
Green: 741
Conservative: 185
Libertarian: 57
Van Isle: 40

63 polls

Liberal: 4,470
NDP: 5,320
Green: 783
Conservative: 195
Libertarian: 60
Van Isle: 44

Global and CBC have called it.

64 polls

Liberal: 4,566
NDP: 5,410
Green: 804
Conservative: 206
Libertarian: 60
Van Isle: 44

69 polls

Liberal: 4,854
NDP: 5,711
Green: 870
Conservative: 226
Libertarian: 61
Van Isle: 48

73 polls

Liberal: 5,204
NDP: 6,195
Green: 937
Conservative: 245
Libertarian: 64
Van Isle: 51

77 polls
Liberal: 5,726
NDP: 6,814
Green: 1,022
Conservative: 273
Libertarian: 65
Van Isle: 63

Vancouver Island Party momentum!

81 polls

Liberal: 6,353
NDP: 7,604
Green: 1,136
Conservative: 309
Libertarian: 69
Van Isle: 72

85 polls

Liberal: 6,741
NDP: 8,043
Green: 1,206
Conservative: 326
Libertarian: 71
Van Isle: 73

Oh wow a good foreign election result for once.

90 polls

Liberal: 7,287
NDP: 8,825
Green: 1,309
Conservative: 357
Libertarian: 77
Van Isle: 86

93 polls

Liberal: 7,535
NDP: 9,034
Green: 1,345
Conservative: 374
Libertarian: 77
Van Isle: 89

98 polls

Liberal: 7,770
NDP: 9,447
Green: 1,405
Conservative: 397
Libertarian: 81
Van Isle: 92

101 polls

Liberal: 7,995
NDP: 9,703
Green: 1,457
Conservative: 403
Libertarian: 82
Van Isle: 93

105 polls

Liberal: 8,206
NDP: 10,087
Green: 1,515
Conservative: 416
Libertarian: 85
Van Isle: 96

108 polls

Liberal: 8,272
NDP: 10,165
Green: 1,522
Conservative: 418
Libertarian: 85
Van Isle: 96

Looking at the results here are my thoughts.  I excluded Libertarians and Vancouver Island Party.

NDP: They held the riding and even saw their share of the popular vote go up slightly so generally a good sign as usually by-elections don't favour governing party mind you this was no ordinary by-election as unlike most others where you can launch a protest vote without consequences this was not the case, but still a good showing either way.  Certainly this helps establish themselves as the main progressive party.

BC Liberals: Despite falling short, it looks like they will end up with around 40% which is not a bad showing at all for them.  In many ways it appears a return to two party politics and if you were to apply a uniform swing (which I think with by-elections is always a risky idea) you would more or less get a repeat of the 2005 and 2009 elections.

Greens: Disastrous showing and looks like most Green voters in 2017 have returned to whichever party they voted for previously.  I suspect with PR dead, this might be the best the party will say in a long time.

BC Conservatives: Fact they only got 2% shows they are irrelevant and the fear of vote splitting on the right is totally overblown.

Pollsters: Mainstreet missed this one badly, mind you they showed BC Liberals with similarly big leads in Surrey-Fleetwood which wasn't even close so for them I take their overall provincial and federal numbers seriously, but ignore them on municipal and riding polls as have a good track record on the first two, not so good on the last two.

110/111 polls

Liberal: 8,665
NDP: 10,538
Green: 1,579
Conservative: 442
Libertarian: 86
Van Isle: 100

The one poll (ballot box) outstanding may be the advanced poll, not sure.  If so, there are still several thousands votes to be added tonight.

111/111 polls reporting

Total votes: 21,410
Sheila Malcolmson, NDP, 10,538, 49.2%
Tony Harris, Liberal: 8,665, 40.5%
Michele Ney, Green: 1,579,  7.4%
Justin Greenwood, Conservative, 442, 2.1%
Robin Richardson, Vancouver Island Party, 100, 0.5%
Bill Walker, Libertarian, 86, 0.4%

There are still 2,839 absentee ballots left to be counted. These are likely to fairly heavily favor the NDP.

Do we have a turnout number?

Based on the 2017 results:
NDP - 46.54%   +2.66% 2019 ByE
BCL - 32.54%   +7.96% 2019 ByE
GRN - 19.91%   -12.51% 2019 ByE

For a riding like Nanaimo, that was already strongly NDP, to be almost 50% is a win-win for the NDP; BCL can claim a win here too, 7% increase in a strong NDP riding is a very good showing. This Nanaimo riding has only existed since 2009 and the BCL have not won this high of a % till now. BCL must be happy to see the Conservatives at 2% as well, still no major threat, yet. Bad night for the BCGreens, they fell hard when you look at it, but really they fell back to around their traditional vote in this riding of about 8%.
On the surface it looks like the province will head back to the NDP-BCL two way race, if the Green vote collapses on the island like it did in this by-election. But Nanaimo was already not the strongest Green seat so maybe not.

I am almost convinced Mainstreet just never geocoded their sample. Their numbers were very different from our internal #s.

I think the Greens can't be too upset. A Liberal win resulting in an early election would likely result in them having no more power at all.

will the ndp try to get there leader in the commons in one of the by election?

They already are.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burnaby_South

Turnout in Nanaimo was pretty good for a by-election. If there are 2,839 outstanding ballots, and there are still around 44k electors, then the turnout was about 55%.

Yeah, I think the Green collapse here can’t tell us much about a general election because people won’t be going in thinking their seat will be determining if the government stays alive or not.

Burnaby: Dipper caucus has told Singh he's out if he loses. (https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/jagmeet-singh-caucus-burnaby-south-1.5000442)

Expectations are so low that even when the Liberal candidate was fired over a bozo eruption, the Liberals are still favoured to win.

Where’d it all go wrong for Jagmeet? He cruised to the leadership, and since then I haven’t really been paying much attention to Canadian politics. What happened? Are poll numbers that dismal?

Just drove around Burnaby South today and saw a fair number of Jagmeet Singh signs.  Surprisingly few for Richard Lee while a surprising number for the Conservatives, Jay Shin.  Andrew Scheer even visited the riding so although I would be surprised if the Tories win it, its not totally impossible but unlikely.  Surprisingly saw a fair number of PPC signs and even a burmashave at Royal Oak Station for them where they were handing out flyers.  So will be interesting to see how they do although I suspect with the success of the far right in Europe and the US, many with similar views are emboldened in Canada thus very much in your face about it, but all polling I've seen suggests fairly little support for such policies.  Certainly on social media, PPC supporters are very noticeable, but I've also noticed your anti-immigration and pro-gun types big on social media and may appear to represent the majority of Canadians even though polls show the exact opposite, thus why I think it is important to be cautious here.

That being said still another 24 days away so will check back in a couple weeks to see how things look as often at this point its more a reflection of whom gets their campaign up and running faster.  Indeed the Liberals due to last minute change in candidate may be a bit behind thus why you see fewer Liberal signs then for the Tories or NDP, or as a matter of fact I think I saw more PPC than Liberal signs (but pretty sure many more will vote Liberal than PPC).

Well over 2,000 absentee ballots were counted in Nanaimo and the final results are in and as expected the absentee votes padded the NDP lead by another 600 or so votes. Final results are:

Sheila Malcolmson (NDP)     - 12,114 (49.88%)
Tony Harris (BC Liberal)       -  9,691 (39.90%)
Michele Ney (BC Green)       -  1,783 (7.34%)
Justin Greenwood (BC Con)  -     491 (2.02%)
Robin Richardson (VI Party)  -     112 (0.46%)
Bill Walker (Libertarian)        -      96 (0.40%)
TOTAL Votes CAST 24,287

The turnout ended up being very high for a byelection and was only down about 3,000 votes from the last general election.

In BC, I've generally found Advanced polls favour BC Liberals, but absentee ballots always favour NDP.  While not sure the reason, I believe absentee ballots are most commonly used by public servants who vote at work particularly public school teachers and that group off course tends to favour the NDP.  For advanced polls it tends to be more business types who are away on business travel or seniors especially in colder months who are travelling and those two tend to lean BC Liberals.

On results I would say good for NDP as they won and increased vote share which is rare for a governing party.  But also good for BC Liberals as they saw a bigger jump in support than NDP and best performance here since 2005 using current boundaries.  Disaster for Greens as it seems progressive Greens are flocking to NDP as they are best party to block a BC Liberal win while dissatisfied BC Liberals who went Green in 2017 since they couldn't stomach voting NDP, but felt BC Liberals overstayed their welcome have returned to the BC Liberals.  Also disastrous for BC Conservatives as centre-right voters I think realize BC Liberals are only party who can beat NDP.  My prediction is next election will be more of a traditional two way race and wouldn't be surprised if both NDP and BC Liberals see their share of the popular vote go up while Greens drop back to usual 8-10% range.  Lets remember in 1979, 1983, 1986, 2005, and 2009, NDP got a larger share of the popular vote than they did in 2017 yet lost in those ones due to strong two way races.  On the other hand got a lower share in 1972 and 1996 but won a majority as non-NDP vote was more divided.

One thing I found in last year's Ontario election is that the PCs *and* NDP were advance-poll beneficiaries--and in the NDP's case, I think there's a trend among the younger urban politically-engaged class t/w "selfie voting" for the sake of posting "I voted" on social media; and doing so in advance is an emblem of one's being *really* committed to exercising one's franchise, like somehow, waiting for e-day is "slacking", or something.  (Personally, I prefer e-day, because then I show up in the poll-by-polls.)

Thus, in a riding like Davenport which went 60% NDP, the advance polls gave the NDP something like 3/4 of the vote.

Things can change in a few months.  Jagmeet hasn't Singhed yet.  :D

I think it's too soon to say with the Conservatives.  The party has been a mess for a few years and doesn't even have a permanent leader.

This was the absentee vote result


Votes: 2,877
Sheila Malcolmson (NDP) 1,576
Tony Harris (BC Liberal)   1,026
Michele Ney (BC Green)      204
Justin Greenwood (BC Con)  49
Robin Richardson (VI Party)  12
Bill Walker (Libertarian)        10

There should be a lot of potential for the BC Conservatives. There is long history of rightwing populism there what with Social Credit and Reform etc...(much more so than in Ontario) and there is certainly room to fill on the right wing of the political spectrum. The BC Liberals have yet another federal Liberal as their leader and on top of that Wilkinson is the epitome of a stuffy upper class elitist twit who is a Rhodes scholar and a doctor and a lawyer! And the BC Liberals created the carbon tax.

If the BC Cons ever got their act together and had a decent leader they could easily run as an anti-carbon tax, politically incorrect party of rednecks and get quite a few votes. 

Had PR passed, I think you would be bang on and surprised more right wingers didn't support it as it is not inconceivable somewhere down the road BC Liberals + BC Conservatives could get over 50% in which case they would pull the BC Liberals rightward.

However, strongest support for those policies comes from the over 50 crowd and they remember how the BC Reform Party getting 8% in 1996 split the right wing vote allowing the NDP to win so want to avoid that happening again.  Also many remember the 90s how vote splitting on the right allowed the Liberals federally to easily win without a challenge and more recently how vote splitting on the right helped the NDP in Alberta.  So most over 50 on the right realize only when right is united they can win and thus will support whichever party has the best chance on the right.  Lets remember elections today are less about voting for a party, they are more about keeping out who you dislike.  Left also unites but since in most provinces save Alberta and maybe Saskatchewan, there are more on the left than right so they can risk splits as long as not too big whereas right doesn't have this luxury. 

Interestingly enough Mainstreet research shows BC Conservative strongest amongst millennials even though that is the group where there is least amount of support for such policies and I believe that is because most weren't old enough to remember 1996 whereas boomers do remember it.

I've noticed since 2005, the NDP always does better on absentee ballots than election day ones and so final count always improves things for them.  Any idea why that happens?  My thinking is higher participation of public sector workers in particular since schools often have polling stations many teachers at lunch and staff would vote at the school they work it which may not be in their riding or polling place.  Not sure if this reason but that would be my guess, would be interested if anybody knows the reason as rather than randomly favouring the other party, it seems about 80-90% of the time NDP does better on absentee ballots than election day ones (yes BC Liberals do win absentee ballots in many ridings, but those are ridings they win by large margins to begin with and usually their margin on the absentee ballot is smaller than general election day).

1.The B.C Conservatives went anti-carbon tax in 2013 with a relatively high profile former Conservative M.P, John Cummins, as leader, and their campaign went nowhere.  Cummins was clearly unprepared for the election campaign which he pretty much acknowledged by pointing out that he had to spend a great deal of his time fighting the B.C Conservative Party executive.  So, the evidence based on the 2013 campaign is mixed.

2.In addition to all those things about Wilkinson though, he is an extremely aggressive 'alpha male' which, based on stereotyping anyway, should make him popular with many conservatives.

Wondering if it also reflects a generic younger-person inclination t/w parties other than the "big two"...

Could be, certainly in Europe, millennials tend to gravitate towards non-traditional parties regardless of where they stand on spectrum while in US, at least in democratic primaries you see a strong trend towards favouring outsiders.  I think many millennials since they fear not doing as well as their parent's generation therefore feel the parties who brought that need to be punished and they need to try something different.

True, but in 2013 opposition to the carbon tax was not a rightwing "litmus test" the way it now is for conservatives in Canada. So IMHO, the BC Cons were ahead of their time in 2013. This year, the federal Tories will run a hysterical anti-carbon tax campaign across the country that may "prime the pump" for opposition to it in BC. The other thing is that Cummins himself was a very bad campaigner and was very weak. My point was that IF the BC Cons could ever get themselves a competent leader, there would be a lot of potential for them

Cummins was my M.P for a number of years.  Obviously leading a political party is a step up, but he was far from 'weak.'  As I wrote previously, if Cummins hadn't have had to fight his party executive, he likely would have run a much better campaign.  I think he had just gotten over some physical ailment at the start of the campaign as well.

Anti-PPC pamphlets spotted in Burnaby South, apparently coming from the Tory candidate. (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzZKpSJUYAAp7Sx.jpg:large)

It makes sense though. A little birdie tells me the PPC candidate is pulling ~20% right now :)

Who does that benefit of the two main candidates?

I am surprised they are that high considering how extreme they are, but would be interesting if they do that well.  Saw lots of signs for them on various properties though.

They might undershoot that on election day but I'm almost certain they'll heavily overperform. Shin's internals seem to match up with my source though, he wouldn't be sending out smear letters if he wasn't seeing dark clouds over his campaign. Keep an eye on Chinese voters in particular.


Conventional wisdom is that if the CPC collapses then the Liberals will benefit. I still think Singh will probably win regardless.

edit: it just keeps getting better. Now Thompson is filing a formal complaint (https://www.facebook.com/633429318/posts/10157156781409319/).

If the PPC does well it can only help Jagmeet Singh. It sounds like they may get votes from socially conservative Chinese voters some of whom would have voted for the the Liberal Richard Lee as well as potential Tory voters. I don't see much (if any) NDP/PPC migration.

Agreed, at least for Metro Vancouver. The NDP coaltion looks very different than it did in 1988-1993.

Okay this is the viewpoint of an outsider so grain of salt, but if the PPC perform well here (Like let's say 20% or so), wouldn't that give them a sort of "legitimacy" of sorts and make them seem like a viable option to would-be supporters who are currently sticking with the Tories?

If they broke 20% it would be big news and would likely result in them being treated more seriously by the media and current Tory voters alike. That's a big, big if though. Burnaby is not exactly a right wing stronghold, so 20% for the People's Party would require a Tory collapse and/or a weird migration of the "promiscuous progressive" vote.

BS-High Schoolers(?):PPC 31%, NDP 27%, LPC 18%, CPC 11%, OTH 13% (https://www.facebook.com/LauraLynnBurnabySouth/photos/rpp.315207975764324/334497530502035)


to be clear, I'm pretty skeptical but it isn't like we're going to get any real riding polls so we'll see how this compares to the results

Poll conducted *utilizing* local students.  (You made it sound like it was a Student Vote poll)

Actually, I've been sort of wondering out loud whether PPC was poised for second place behiund Singh.  (First would be an earthquake.)

The reason why the PPC seems to be doing well in Burnaby-South is because their party's candidate is a well-known anti-transgender rights activist in the community, which seems to be appealing to a large section of the Chinese-Canadian population in this plurality Chinese-Canadian riding.

Thompson got like 30% of the municipal election's vote last year so she's running on her own brand in this by-election, not Bernier's. The fundamental reality is that Bernier's overall strategy doesn't align with what seems to be working in this riding, which is appealing to immigrants via going hard-right on LGBT issues.

It's not a coincidence that the PPC is non-existent in the other 2 by-elections happening on Monday, in significantly whiter ridings. Bernier's current message has little appeal to white voters because the Conservatives are already doing a fine job appealing to the less "racially-woke" aspects of the electorate. At the end of the day, the conservative white voters that Bernier is so desperately pining for care more about the oil & gas sector than immigrants.

All that's really up for grabs from the Conservatives are the religious and social conservatives who feel that the CPC is leaving them behind on issues of gay marriage, transgender and abortion rights, but that group is probably more diverse than the country at large because of the influence of both culture and church in many East Asian immigrant communities in Canada. However, if Bernier spends his entire time rallying against immigrants, it's hard to see them embracing him like they did to Ford in Ontario last year.

I used the standard US Election Atlas poll format, so "high schoolers" occupied the polling firm field (since it was apparently conducted by high schoolers).


Partly. You're missing arguably the biggest factor though. The PPC candidate actually was known for getting coffee thrown at her while protesting about the Marrissa Shen case, so she had some Chinese street cred even without her SoCon positions. Somewhat counterintuitively, opposition to
more immigration can be appealing to recent immigrants.

Ah, this is the most peak Atlas discussion I have ever seen.

Do people seriously believe some random in Ontario would have any evidence of the PPC polling 20% in Burnaby South? And why do we care about a poll of "high school students" of 288 people?

FYI:

Polls close at 9:30 ET (6:30 PT) (for York–Simcoe and Outremont)
Polls close at 7:00 PT (10:00 ET) (for Burnaby South)

- I believe Elections Canada (TV Networks) can start broadcasting results once the polls close in Ontario and Quebec, previously they had to wait all the polls closed. However there is only a 30 minute window between the closing times anyway. You won't get any real results in the first 30 minutes anywhere (expect for for odd special poll)

Does immigration / multiculturalism fall in the socially conservative category ? I was going to say maybe the People's party candidate in Burnaby is socially conservative but Bernier and probably what he wants his party to be is not. I was thinking on issues like abortion, same sex marriage, marijuana.

For Outremiont, a former NDP strategist says if the NDP finishes with a strong second place, that would already be a win for the party.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/ndp-byelection-outremont-1.5028818 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/ndp-byelection-outremont-1.5028818)

He doesn't give a percentage result I'm thinking around 25% would be a good result. It's more than half of the score in the last election and there is no leader, or well known person boost. The party is polling less than half of the result province wide.  Mainstreet Research had the NDP at 13% on the island of Montreal in last week's poll with presumably a large margin of error, so 25% would be double that number. In his last projection qc125 website has the NDP below 20% in Outremont, with the margin could be low 20s. The article talks about the environment being a concern for some voters. The Greens are running a well known environmentalist. He had a good result in the Saint-Laurent byelection, the party seems to be polling higher than before so he could do well.

Agreed. That's a garbage poll among garbage polls. I can maybe see the PPC pulling high single digits because its a by election and/or local factors, but 30% is ridiculous. *Prepares to eat crow tonight* :P


Bernier's reception has been quite cool in my social conservative circle due to his personal libertarianism. YMMV

My thoughts are as follows:

Burnaby South

Liberals  Ideally a win is what they want, but in a way a loss might be a blessing in disguise as Singh would stay on as leader unless the Tories pull off an upset and the general view (I am not sure it is necessarily true) is that Singh is a weak leader and will stay low in the polls come election thus a united left.

Conservatives If not a win at least a strong second.  If the CPC + PPC vote exceeds the winner expect the party to move to the right to try and push the PPC down as they can ill afford these splits in a general election.

NDP  A win or Singh is gone although its possible a leadership race might be build more interest and excitement and help the party a bit in the polls.  I think the biggest lift they would get is if the NDP somehow miracously is re-elected in Alberta which while unlikely it is not impossible by any means.

PPC  Get in double digits and have the CPC lose while the CPC + PPC exceeds the winner.  This will push the CPC rightward which is ultimately what the PPC supporters really want.

Outremont

Liberals Win and win big.  To make up for expected losses in ROC, they need to gain in Quebec and this area went heavily PLQ last provincial election and was traditionally a safe Liberal riding so if they lose or barely scrape by may have to go back to the drawing board and work harder on holding everything they have in ROC.

Tories  Get their deposit back although considering how badly the CAQ did here despite winning, this unlike in the suburbs and regions of Quebec really says little about the Tory prospects in Quebec.

NDP  If not a win at least a strong second which shows despite polling they might have chances in other areas, especially areas the QS did well provincially, which was not here.

BQ Get in the double digits as polls suggest a bump with the new leader but the BQ has never won this not even in good elections such as 1993 or 2004.

York-Simcoe

Liberals Get over 30% as usually when Liberals get over 30% here, they usually win overall nationally and provincially.  When in the 20s they go to opposition and when under 20% usually fall to third place. 

Tories Get at least 50% since this is one of the most Conservative ridings in Ontario so when they get under 50%, it usually is a poor showing overall.  Over 60% is a great showing as that usually means a strong majority.

NDP Get over 10% to get their deposit back which I don't think they will do.  Nonetheless the Tories probably want NDP and Greens to do well here as while it won't likely matter here, in the 905 suburbs where things are more competitive, a stronger NDP and Green showing while weaker PPC showing improves their odds while for Liberals, the weaker the NDP and Greens while stronger the PPC is, the better their odds are in the neighbouring suburban ones they currently hold.

This theory has been floated before but I think its just self-serving Liberal spin. It would be one thing if there was some "heir apparent" to Singh waiting in the wings who was fluently bilingual and charismatic and brilliant and all set to sweep the country...but no such person exists (if they did exist they would be leader in the first place). I suppose it is "possible" that if the NDP was forced to get an also-ran from the last contest to step in at the last minute with the party in total disarray that person could turn things around. But its also "possible" than once he gets into the house and has a chance to raise his profile and better introduce himself to Canadians, Singh could turn out to be a far better campaigner than people give him credit for. He certainly wouldsnt be the first opposition party leader who was initially written off by the media who turned out to do well with voters (hello Jean Chretien, Jack Layton, Stephen Harper, Justin Trudeau etc...)

Quito Maggi from Mainstreet has tweeted the following, which while always very skeptical of riding polls all of these seem plausible and would be more or less what I would personally expect.

Liberals

Win Outremont comfortably, slightly behind but still competitive in Burnaby South, while unlikely to win York-Simcoe, but could potentially match their 37% they got in 2015 which would be doable but on the high side.

Tories

CPC still in the running in Burnaby South and judging from his tweet on PPC, could very well have a result where CPC + PPC exceeds winner.  Expected to hold York-Simcoe although if PPC does better than expected could fall below 50% (seems to indicate though right wing vote will exceed 50%), while a non-factor in Outremont.

NDP 

Still favoured in Burnaby South, should come in a distant second in Outremont while distant third in York-Simcoe.

BQ will remain in third in Outremont behind NDP, PPC around 10% give or take a few points in Burnaby South, while not a factor in York-Simcoe overall but could get enough to push CPC below 50%.  Greens will be a close fourth in York-Simcoe while non-factor in Outremont and not running in Burnaby South.

Agreed Singh could outperform expectations and I think this is more what Liberals are thinking not necessarily what will happen.  Nonetheless he starts with negative perceptions but off course things could improve as people see him more.  Nathan Cullen and Charlie Angus I think would do a bit better, Guy Caron probably wouldn't do any better in English Canada but at least would be the best one for trying to hold as many Quebec seats as possible.  Niki Ashton would probably do worse although who knows maybe the era of being moderate is over and people prefer more ideologically driven leaders, but still skeptical.

Just for information and maybe to compare, in 2015 the Bloc finished fourth with 8.4% behind CPC 9.5%. Mulcair won with 44%, LPC got 33.5%.

The skeptic in me is wondering if this is merely disinformation being pushed by anti-CPC forces with the purpose of persuading would-be Conservative voters to cast a tactical vote for a losing candidate.

Does John Turmel have a shot in winning in York-Simcoe? :)

Quite possibly.  Sort of like the Bernie or bust in the US, you have some on the right who won't accept anything short of purity so there hope is split the vote enough the Tories lose and then put in a more right wing replacement.  The PPC doing well here gives them legitimacy thus more likely to happen.

First poll reporting
Outremont
Liberal 61
NDP 12
Others 8

York-Simcoe
Conservative 40
Liberal 24
Others 9

First Polls in

York-Simcoe: Consv - 55%, Lib 32%

Outremont: Lib, 75%, NDP 15%

York-Simcoe 3 polls
Conservative 105
Liberal 53
Others 36

The PC Party leading the People's Party (currently in 6th) in York-Simcoe

Outremont 5 polls
Liberals 162
NDP 74
Green 40
B.Q 38
Conservative 20
PPC 5
Ind 3

York-Simcoe 8/136 polls
Conservative 51-29%

Outremont 10/170
Liberal 50-20%

York Simcoe 10 polls
P.C 55-27%

Outremont 15 polls
Liberal 49-19%

York-Simcoe 15 polls
Conservative 52-29%

Outremont 19 polls
Liberal 46-23% Green 11% B.Q 10%

York-Simcoe 20 polls
Conservative 51-29% NDP 9%

Outremont 23 polls
Liberal 45-24%-11-9

Burnaby South 0 polls
0-0% :)

York-Simcoe 25 polls
Conservative 51-29%-9

Outremont 30 polls
Liberal 47-23%-12-9

York-Simcoe 31 polls
Conservative 50-30%-9  John Turmel 10 votes :)

Outremont 35 polls
Liberal 46-23%-12-9 7% Conservative

York-Simcoe 35 polls
Conservative 51-30%-9 John Turmel 11 votes

Outremont 40 polls
Liberal 45-24%-12-10-6

Outremont
Liberal 1,263
NDP 631
Almost exactly 2-1

Burnaby South Prediction
NDP 40%
Liberal 20%
Conservative 20%
People's Party 20%

York-Simcoe 46/136 polls
Conservative 51-30%-8 John Turmel 15 votes Turmelmentum!

Outremont 55/171 polls
Liberal 45-23%-12-9-7

Burnaby South 1 poll
NDP 15
Liberal 11
PPC 9
Conservative 7
Other 1

York-Simcoe 50 polls
Conservative 51-30-8

Outremont 59 polls
Liberal 44-25-13-9-7

Burnaby South 5 polls
NDP 40-25 Liberal Conservative 19 PPC 15%

Weird:
 # polls reporting  for Burnaby went from 5 to 4, and so did the vote totals

York-Simcoe 60 polls
Conservative 50-31-8

Outremont 70 polls
Liberal 42-26-14-10-6 (Green Party are the major gainers overall in Outremont)

Burnaby South

York-Simcoe 65 polls
Conservative 50-31-8

Outremont 75 polls
Liberal 42-26-14-9-6

Burnaby-South 8 polls
NDP  39-27-19-14

While the talk is of Con + PPC potentially outpolling Singh in BS, the more unforeseen possibility is of NDP + Green outpolling the Libs in Outremont...

York-Simcoe 69/136 (just over half of all polls)
Conservative 51-31-8

Outremont 80 polls
Liberal 42-26-14-9-7

Burnaby South 13 polls
NDP 38-28-21-12

York-Simcoe 75 polls
Conservative 51-31-7

Outremont 85/170 polls (half way)
Liberal 41-27-14-9-7

Burnaby South 15 polls
NDP 39-27-20-13


Unless there is a massive advanced poll outstanding, it looks like turnout in all three by elections will be in the 15-20% range.

York-Simcoe 80 polls
Conservative 51-31-8 John Turmel 34 votes!

Burnaby South 21 polls
NDP 39-27-21-11

NDP is avoiding a disaster scenario in Outremont. Given that a leadership bump that existed for Mulcair is gone, second place at 26% isn’t as horrific as it could’ve been.

Outremont 90 polls
Liberal 41-27-14-9-7

Burnaby South 25 polls
NDP 38-28-22-12

York-Simcoe 85 polls
Conservative 51-32-8

Burnaby South 30 polls
NDP 40-27-21-11

Burnaby South 35 polls
NDP 38-27-22-11

Burnaby South 40/196
NDP 38-27-22-12

CBC Projects, Conservatives to take York-Simcoe.
Liberals to take Outremont

Outremont 99 polls
Liberal 42.5-26-13.5-9-7

Burnaby South 45 polls
NDP 39-26-21.5-11.5

Burnaby South 50 polls
NDP 39-26.5-21-11

Burnaby South 55 polls
NDP 40-26-21-11

York-Simcoe 90 polls
Conservative 51-31-7.5

Outremont 104 polls
Liberal 42.5-26-13-9-7

Burnaby South 60 polls
NDP 39-26.5-21.5-11.5

York-Simcoe 95 polls
Conservative 51-31-7

Burnaby South 65 polls
NDP 38.5-26-22-11

York-Simcoe 100/136 polls
Conservative 51-31-7 John Turmel 48 votes!
Turnout so far 11,163/83,179 registered voters (13.42%)

Outremont 110/170 polls
Liberal 43-26-13-9-7
Turnout so far 7,344 of 70,414 registered voters (10.43%)

Burnaby South 70/196 polls
NDP 38-26.5-22-11
Turnout so far 5,371 of 76,204 registered voters (7.05%)

Burnaby South 75 polls
NDP 39-26-22-11

CBC projects Jagmeet Singh to win Burnaby South

Burnaby South 80 polls
NDP 39-26-22-11

Outremont 115 polls
Liberal 43-26-13-9-6.5

Burnaby South 85 polls
NDP 38.5-27-22-11

So far I would say things are largely turning out as expected.

Liberals: Fairly decent showing.  Up in Outremont, down a bit in York-Simcoe but still north of 30% and usually when Liberals get above 30% there they form government.  Burnaby South underperforming a bit.

Conservatives: Not horrible, but not the kind of numbers that would suggest they are on their way to forming government.  Getting just north of 50% in York-Simcoe so similar to 2015 although surprisingly it is the minor PC Party not People's Party who is splitting the vote.  Outremont getting trashed as expected.  Burnaby South also doing poorly although with People's Party having a well known candidate that seems to be eating into them unlike other two ridings.

NDP: Actually not too bad a night.  Winning Burnaby South by an increased margin and in Outremont still a solid second and over 25% so not totally cratering.  Getting trashed in York-Simcoe as expected.

Bloc Quebecois: No bump, but Outremont not exactly a BQ friendly.

Green Party: A fairly decent night as double digits in Outremont so showing some support there.

People's Party: Getting trashed in York-Simcoe and Outremont so doesn't look like a major threat for vote splitting.  Doing reasonably well in Burnaby South, but could be due to high profile candidate so not sure enough to create a wave for them.

Burnaby South 90 polls
NDP 39-27-22-11

York-Simcoe 105 polls
Conservative 52-31-7

Burnaby South 100/196 polls (just over half way)
NDP 38-27-22-11
8,657 registered voters of 76,204 so far (11.36%)

Burnaby South 105 polls
NDP 38-27-22-11

Burnaby South 120 polls
NDP 38-26-22-12

Burnaby South 125 polls
NDP 38-26-22-11.5

Outremont 120 polls
Liberal 42-26-13.5-10

Burnaby South 130 polls
NDP 38-26-22-11.5

York-Simcoe 109 polls
Conservative 53-30-7

Outremont 125 polls
Liberal 42-27-13-10

Burnaby South 135 polls
NDP 38-26-22-11

Burnaby South 140 polls
NDP 38.5-26-22-11

Which will be the first to finish reporting?

Outremont 130 polls
Liberal 41-27-13-10-6

Burnaby South 145 polls
NDP 38-26-22-11

I will guess Burnaby, start last finish first

York Simcoe 115 polls
Conservative 53-30-7

Outremont 135 polls
Liberal 41-28-13-10-6

Burnaby South 150 polls
NDP 38-26-22.5-11

Burnaby starting counting 30 minutes later than the other 2 ridings but have more polls reporting, however they do have 196 polls vs 136/170.

I'd say *Outremont* is more the underperformance--at least relative to post-Mulcair expectations.  While given how much was invested in Jagmeet, as well as the candidate switcheroo and the division in the non-Jagmeet vote, BS was sort of what could be expected...

And at this moment, NDP + Green *is* ahead of the Libs in Outremont (whether that'll hold, I don't know)

Outremont 145 polls
Liberal 41-27-13-10-6

Burnaby South 155 polls
NDP 38-26-22.5-11.5

Burnaby South 160 polls
NDP 38-25.5-23-11.5

Outremont 150 polls
Liberal 41.5-2713-10-6

Burnaby South 165 polls
NDP 38-26-23-11

Burnaby South 172 polls
NDP 38-26-23-11

Burnaby South 175 polls
NDP 38.5-26-23-11

Jagmeet Singh will likely finish the night with the most raw votes out of all the candidates.

Burnaby South 180 polls
NDP  38.5-26-23-11

Turnout approching 30% in Burnaby, and 20% in York-Simcoe and Outremont

Outremont 160/170 polls
Liberal 40-28-13-10-6

A high profile NDP candidate here probably could have made this a very close race.

Also bodes well for holding Rosemont-La Petite Patrie and maybe other east end Montreal ridings as this area went heavily for the PLQ and I suspect much of the NDP support will come from QS voters provincially whose support was strongest on the east end.

York-Simcoe 120/136 polls
Conservative 53-30-7.5

Burnaby South 185 polls
NDP 39-26-22.5-11

York-Simcoe 125/136
Conservative 53-29.5-7.5

Burnaby South 189/196
NDP 39-26-23-11

York-Simcoe 130/136
Conservative 54-29-7

Do we know who Green voters tend to have as their second choice? I would have thought that with their ideological profile, Canadian Greens would tend to second-preference Liberals - and of course they'd all have to prefer NDP if any meaningful accusation of vote-splitting were to hold water.

How would a ranked ballot play out in Burnaby?

There could a good chance the Conservatives (who finished 3rd) could have taken the riding.


NDP     38.8%
LIB       26.1%
CONSV  22.7%
PPC    10.7%
INDs       1.6%

After the Inds and People's Party are dropped out.

You might have:

NDP  40%
Consv  33%
Liberal: 27%

Could the Conservative's take about 2/3 of the Liberal vote?

York-Simcoe wins!  York-Simcoe has final results first

136/136 polls
16,564 Total votes
8,929 53.9% Conservative Scot Davidson
4,811 29.0% Liberal Shaun Tanaka
1,244 7.5% NDP Jessa McLean
634 3.8% P.C Dorian Baxter
451 2.7% Green, Mathew Lund
314 1.9% People's Party  Robert Geurtz
95 0.6% Libertarian, Keith Dean Komar
64 0.4% Independent, John Turmel
22 0.1% National Citizens Coalition, Adam Suhr

83,179 registered voters, 19.91% turnout

Burnaby South final
22,776 total votes
8,884 39.0% NDP Jagmeet Singh
5,930 26.0% Liberal Richard T Lee
5,130 22.5% Conservative Jay Shin
2,420 10.6% People's Party, Laura-Lynn Thompson
240 1.1% Independent Terry Grimwood
169 .7% Independent Valentine Wu

76,204 registered voters, 29.89% turnout

Final Results from Burnaby South

Independent   Terry Grimwood   240   1.1 %   
Liberal   Richard T. Lee   5,930   26.0 %   
Conservative   Jay Shin   5,133   22.5 %   
NDP- Jagmeet Singh   8,884   39.0 %   
People's Party   Laura-Lynn Thompson   2,420   10.6 %   
Independent   Valentine Wu   169   0.7 %

Scot Davidson (8, 929 votes) did manage to win the raw vote tonight over Jahmeet Singh (8,884). Davidson had a 67 vote lead with 2 polls remaining in Burnaby, however the last 2 polls must have come from special polls which only accounted a total of 65 votes from the 2 polls.

Burnaby had their polls counted quicker.

So, who are the New Democrats that might have won in Outremont?

Tom Mulcair

Outremont, Final Results
15,055 total votes
6,086 40.4% Liberal Rachel Bendayan
3,925 26.1% NDP Julia Sánchez
1,889 12.5% Green Daniel Green
1,683 11.2% B.Q Michel Duchesne
1,098 7.3% Conservative Jasmine Louras
322 2.1% People's Party, James Seale
52 0.3% Independent William Barrett

70,414 registered voters (21.38% turnout)

:|

Aggregate totals

54,395 Total votes
16,827 Liberal
15,157 Conservative
14,053 N.D.P
3,056 People's Party
2,340 Green (2 candidates)
1,683 Bloc Quebecois
1,276 Others
(My totals are off by 3 votes)

Well, that gives Singh a bit of credibility, or at least a chance at it. Can he grasp it?

I think for the NDP York-Simcoe was also surprisingly a good result, at about 7-8% that's just shy of their 9% from 2015, effectively holding their vote in a riding which was not at all considered a target. We have seen massive failures of the NDP in similar seats where the party dropped to 3% or so. Outremont is unfortunate for the NDP, no unexpected thought, but 20% would have been a decent night, so 26% is solid and should allow the party to breath a sigh a relief that Rosemount and Hochelaga are probably better for the NDP then they had thought. Also most of their 2015 survivors who are more personally popular like Ruth Ellen Brosseau and Pierre Luke Dusseault might fair better too.
Burnaby South is nothing but a success for the NDP; Singh winning and increasing the % over the 2015 numbers while the Liberals and Conservatives saw a decrease in votes.

16,827 - 30.9% - Liberals - Good night, gain Outremont but should be concerned with BC

15,157 - 27.9% - Conservatives - OK night, held a seat with some gains but not where they need it. Bad night in Quebec and BC. PPC should be a concern for them if they run good candidates

14,053 - 25.8% - NDP - Good night, Singh in the house is the "start" the party needs, decent result in Outremont, but still a loss, Que is still a concern, especially from the Greens and BQ but BC and Urban seats show some hope

3,056 - 5.6% - PPC - Good candidates can win a solid chunk, and hurt the CONs, probably overstated but 4% nationally is not out of the question

2,340 - 4.3% - Green - Isn't really representative, they are probably double this number. They only represented 3% in Burnaby South in 2015, but could have pulled in more in this by-election I think. Quebec was a good result so see they start to target there I think.  

Well, even Julia Sanchez, had the byelection not taken place w/Jagmeet's leadership under an unelected (yet) cloud (the absence of said cloud which probably would also have drawn a lot of Green vote-parkers their way).  After all, the party *was* privately expected to be happy with a solid 25% second-place result--and that's exactly what happened.

I think what a *lot* of people were expecting was a 50%+ Liberal blowout--SNC-Lavalin probably put a big dent in that.

And as for Burnaby South: it's interesting that after all the byelection psychodrama, the end result almost exactly replicated what Mainstreet polled in mid-January (38.8% NDP vs 39.0%, 26.3% Lib vs 26.0%, 22 % CPC vs 22.5%, 8.7% PPC vs 10.6%)

My final thoughts are:

Liberals: A decent but not great night.  They did regain Outremont, although the win was not as big as many expected, still a win is a win.  In York-Simcoe took a bit of a hit and sort of right on the dividing point as usually when Liberals get over 30% there, they win, when they get below they lose so fell just shy of the 30% mark.  A not so good showing in Burnaby South, but not a total disaster either as results there similar to the Martin/Chretien era when they got 5-9 seats in BC, but not as disastrous as in the Dion/Ignatieff era when they did much worse there.

Tories: Okay showing, but even though some polls suggest they are in the lead, the numbers last night don't seem to allude to that.  Up in York-Simcoe and won big there, but that is a safe Tory riding so to be expected.  Had they gotten over 60% there it might be more newsworthy.  For comparison they got 4 points more than 2015 while 3 points less than Caroline Mulroney did provincially so much like Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands & Rideau Lakes better than 2015, worse than provincially 2018 so suggesting more than the 33 seats won in 2015, but fewer than the 76 seats the Ontario PCs won.  In BC, fell and were hurt by the People's Party cracking double digits so while the other two ridings suggest People's Party not a huge problem overall, if they have strong known candidates it could cost them in some key ones.  Did poorly in Outremont as expected.

NDP:  Actually a fairly decent night at least relative to expectations, but overall fairly average.  Won Burnaby South by a decent margin and Singh now has a seat.  Lost Outremont as expected, but with 26% support didn't implode as badly as polls suggest, suggesting some of the east end Island ridings which are more NDP friendly might still be winneable.  Did poorly in York-Simcoe, but never have done well there.

Green Party: Good showing in Outremont, less so in York-Simcoe so based on that and provincial results suggest they can pull off strong results with the right candidate but still have a long ways to go before being a major contender.

BQ: Polls suggest a bounce due to new leader, but results in Outremont suggest otherwise.  Mind you this riding was never that friendly to the BQ to begin with so probably not the best indicator.

PPC:  Strong showing in Burnaby South but bombed the other two.  That suggests they can damage the Tories and cost them seats if they have strong candidates, but with generic ones the Tories have little to worry about and thus only if a superclose election could they play spoiler.

I guess the NDP put most of their resources into Burnaby, and had to sacrifice Outremont, but as I kept saying a long time ago, the riding is still winnable, even in this environment. It used to be the party's best riding before they made their breakthrough with Mulcair. It's one of the least 'racist' ridings in the province, and is quite federalist, and has a progressive tint. Sure, it has a Liberal tradition, but it still backed Valerie Plante in the Montreal mayoral race over Denis Coderre.

I would say that is generally true, although I think Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie is even more favourable to the NDP.  After all this area went heavily for the PLQ last provincial election despite their terrible results while QS did well on the East Island but less so here.  Now unlike other provinces, Quebec's provincial elections are a different beast so you cannot automatically assume those who voted CAQ will go Conservative, PLQ Liberal, QS NDP, and PQ BQ, its a bit more complicated but it can at least give one an idea of the ideological orientations as the 2018 provincial election was probably the first since the Quiet Revolution fought more on philosophical orientation as opposed to separatism vs. federalism.

Federally I think after 2011, the NDP sweep, you saw Separatism really start to fall to the side as the major or even a major issue in Quebec during the federal election. Immigration (for Conservatives) and Climate Change/Pipelines (for Progressives) are much more important and becoming more dominant as Quebec's issues that they will focus on. Right now, I think the province is still trying to settle and adjust to this orientation, which is why the Liberals are doing very well, they are the safe bucket, they just know them. The PLQ and LPC are pretty much the same for the most part. The new NPDQ is too new to have solidified any provincial-federal relationship, but its there (just no ones paid attention, QS sucked up all that vote).

I think the NDP are relieved to some extent, and I think stronger candidates will be in place in their arguably best chances to keep seats, Laurier--Sainte-Marie and Hochelaga than might have been if the NDP polled under 20%
I agree with the above, but QS voters are much more aligned with the NDP ideologically (minus separation) then with the other parties... even the BQ has moved to the right if i'm not mistaken. There used to more alignment with the NDP and PQ due to social issues/fiscal policy, but the PQ is shifting as well to the right. 

Though that's more the W part (Cote-des-Neiges et al), and a lot of that has skewed by unfavourable provincial riding configuration as well (the real heart of PLQ support in Mont-Royal-Outremont being in Mont-Royal, which had a way of pulling the whole riding in that direction)

In its poll done in late January Léger had numbers on federal vote according to provincial vote. At that time the federal numbers were:
PLC 39, CPC 21, BQ 21, NDP 8, PPC 6, Green 5

Provincial vote: CAQ 42, PLQ, 22, PQ 18, QS 15, Other 3

Data on the second page
https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Politique-QC-publication-le-2-f%C3%A9vrier-2019.pdf (https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Politique-QC-publication-le-2-f%C3%A9vrier-2019.pdf)

CAQ voters: LPC 28, CPC 29, BQ 16, NDP 6, PPC 6, Green 1
PLQ voters: LPC 75, CPC 13, BQ 0, NDP 2, PPC 4, Green 3
PQ voters: LPC 14, CPC 13, BQ 54, NDP 7, PPC 2, Green 3
QS voters: LPC 24, CPC 7, BQ 23, NDP 18, PPC 3, Green 12

At that time the NDP was behind the Liberals and Bloc among QS voters, which might explain why it was in single digit in that poll. NDP and QS seem to share some organizers and volunteers, in Montreal anyway.

I suspect this should be an interesting Green/NDP race.  Greens are strong in Greater Victoria area so this will be test if they can move further up the Island.  Liberals have never been strong here so don't expect them to pick this up.  Tories in theory could win, but they would need very strong splits.  Yes they got 40% in 2011 in this riding, but they are nowhere near 2011 levels in BC, so I would say 30% is probably their ceiling or low 30s and I could just as easily see them staying in the 20s or maybe even teens if some vote tactically.

Agreed; the PM calling this by-election after the NDP win in Burnaby South, arguably there is some wind in the sales of the NDP but the NDP does not have a nominated candidate yet. Two high profile candidates are running:
* Lauren Semple, the event director for the last three Nanaimo Pride festivals, a former Nanaimo Pride president, and former riding assistant to Malcolmson; (I'd say the Socialist backed candidate by who i've seen endorse)
* Bob Chamberlin, vice president of the Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs and elected chief of the Kwikwasut'inuxw Haswa'mis First Nation. (Likely to win the nomination, huge candidate for the party)

The Green candidate is filmmaker and formerly rejected NDP candidate Paul Manly. We basically have a NDP vs Green-ish-NDPer. Now this is not the 2015 NDP so I don't think the criticisms here will stick to the party led by Jagmeet then say if Mulcair was still leader. 

https://www.straight.com/news/1218361/prime-minister-justin-trudeau-calls-election-nanaimo-ladysmith-midst-ndp-nomination

This will distract and occupy the left, which might be some relief for the LPC... but another NDP win will just add fire to the NDP now. Watch for the LPC to behind-the-scenes be helping the Greens.

Would the Liberals really help the Greens right now? That sounds a bit too clever for their own good. The Greens seem to have been a big beneficiary of the Liberals drop in the polls, even more than the Conservatives, presumably because they provide an alternative for progressives upset about the pipeline or LavScam who are too rich to vote NDP.

If the Greens win that by-election, it could solidify them as a legitimate progressive alternative to the Liberals and NDP, which in turn could mean a world of hurt for the Liberals in October. Then again, what do I know. The Liberals have made so many mistakes managing LavScam, maybe they will help the Greens :P

It would not be the first time that the Liberals have outsmarted themselves by trying to promote the Green party thinking it would hurt the NDP only to have the Greens take more votes from the Liberals than anyone else. It happened in 2008 when the Greens scopped up votes from Liberals disgruntled with Dion...also in the last BC election the BC Liberals attempts to promote the Greens under Weaver blew up in their face as the Greens took more votes from the Liberals than they did form the NDP.

This is what the Liberals have been reduced to these day - all tactics and no strategy

There's an Ottawa city council by-election in Rideau-Rockcliffe ward today. To kill time, I've done some canvassing for a candidate here (even though I don't live in the ward).

Located in eastern Ottawa, the ward has a fairly strange shape (https://documents.ottawa.ca/sites/default/files/ward_13_en_0.pdf). There are sharp socioeconomic differences between some of the neighbourhoods included in this ward, from affluent parts like Rockcliffe Park (the wealthiest part of Ottawa) and New Edinburgh to low-income areas like Overbrook. Around 27% of the population is Francophone and 28% are visible minorities. It is a predominantly 'urban' (as opposed to suburban) type of ward, although there are some more suburban areas. Its politics tend to be centre-left liberal/progressive, and most candidates in this by-election generally fit the mould, although there are differences between more outright left-leaning progressives and wishy-washy centrist liberals.

There are no less than 17 candidates running in the by-election, up from just 2 last year (when the incumbent was reelected with 80%). It had the lowest turnout of any ward in 2018, at 37.2%. The candidates are:

Kasia Adamiec: Young woman who I believe is/was a federal civil servant, and has served on a bunch of police/crime-related community organizations and committees. Appears to be moderately centre-right, with fairly boring and unambitious proposals (it seems her top environmental promise is 'composting program in high-rises & condos', so yeah). Randomly endorsed by former Etobicoke Centre Conservative MP Ted Opitz.
Idris Ben-Tahir: Doesn't have any online presence, but unsuccessfully ran for mayor (2010), city council, school board and the federal Tory nomination in Ottawa Centre (2006). Was in the news in 2015 for losing a claim for a disability award from a hazing incident in the RCAF in 1965.
Marc Dorgeville: Financial counsellor and former engineer. Left-wing and green/environmentalist, his top priorities are climate change and poverty. He's also a Francophone, and is also focusing on that. I've done some canvassing with him during the campaign.
Bruce A. Faulkner: Truck driver. Ran for the provincial Libertarian Party in Ottawa Centre in 2014 and 2018, probably the most right-wing candidate.
Johan Hamels: Originally from Belgium (Flanders), he was active in the green party in Flanders and with the federal Green Party in Canada. Obviously a centre-left progressive, focusing on climate change and affordable housing. He is also a Francophone, and has thorough policy planks on Francophone rights and issues.
Peter Heyck: The other candidate in 2018 (who got less than 20% against the incumbent). Has a Twitter account, but doesn't seem to have any kind of platform.
Miklos Horvath: Former (?) civil servant, bilingual. Appears somewhat progressive, and his platform largely laments the poor quality of public services received by residents (esp. transit).
Peter Jan Karwacki: Claims that he would continue outgoing city councillor Tobi Nussbaum's policies, and says the top 2 issues are gang violence and the 'ever-increasing burden on taxpayers of the cost of LRT'.
Rawlson King: President of the Overbrook community association. Explicitly left-wing progressive candidate, and 'unofficial' NDP candidate (endorsed by Ottawa Centre NDP MPP Joel Harden, as well as left/NDP-leaning city councillors Catherine McKenney and Shawn Menard, and school trustees Lyra Evans and Chris Ellis, as well as 2010/2018 left-leaning mayoral candidate Clive Doucet). Has proposals including inclusionary zoning, electoral reform (ranked voting), transit fare freeze, declaring a climate change emergency and a city-wide handgun/assault weapons ban.
Jerry Kovacs: Lawyer, former professor. His top 2 issues are municipal services/infrastructure and community engagement.
Jamie Kwong: Former executive director of the Vanier BIA executive director, she is the main 'pro-business' liberal in the race. Repeats the words 'business leader' a lot. Endorsed by former Liberal MP Bryon Wilfert and former city councillor Bob Monette.
Maurice Lamirande: Old guy who ran for the PCs in Ottawa-Vanier in 1999 and 2003 and was a two-term school trustee on the Conseil des écoles catholiques du Centre-Est. Says he will 'your voice at the table' a lot. Campaign platform seems generic.
Patrick Mayangi: Carleton University grad. I had a class with him a few years ago, seemed like a nice enough guy. Campaign seems to focus a lot on platitudes and empty catchphrases, which sound nice but don't actually mean anything.
Oriana Ngabirano: Reputation manager and public relations specialist. Platform seems to be pretty generic and boring.
Chris Penton: Business development manager. His platform appears fairly centrist and 'pro-business'.
Sheila Perry: Teacher, president of the Federation of Community Associations of Ottawa and president of the Ottawa Council of Women, former president of the Overbrook Community Association. She ran in this ward in 2014. Endorsed by city councillor Jeff Leiper and former city councillor Marianne Wilkinson. Moderately centre-left liberal.
Penny Thompson: President of the Manor Park Community Association. She is officially supported by former Liberal MPP Madeleine Meilleur and former (right-leaning) city councillor Peter D. Clark. I've also heard she is unofficially 'supported' by the mayor, Jim Watson. It makes sense: like him, she's a boring centrist with very unambitious and generic policy goals.

Given such a large field, the winner will probably have a small majority and a low plurality of the vote. I may be entirely wrong, but from my impression of the campaign, I'd wager that the favourites/strongest candidates are: Jamie Kwong, Rawlson King, Penny Thompson, Sheila Perry and maybe Marc Dorgeville and Kasia Adamiec. I won't even try to predict who will win.

Hoping for a Rawlson King victory, obviously. With so many candidates running, his high profile endorsements might help him win, if he can capture most of the left wing vote.

I've only been into that ward once during the campaign, so I don't know who's winning the sign war. I do think  Kwong has the nicest signs though, FWIW.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/rawlson-king-byelection-win-1.5092982?fbclid=IwAR0BKbpZ0SQF1dC7Fi8Ojp0AmlmaXQMaz3suWmpGJvvF1-dyr7ctiIPNTRE

Heh. I should've put some money on it; Turned out it was a King-Kwong race.

+1 more NDP councillor :D And, apparently he will be the first Black city councillor in Ottawa's history.

With 17 candidates, as above, King won with... 18.36%, 1529 votes. Kwong with 1406. over 30% turnout, I would suspect that's pretty decent for a municipal by-election.

That's a VERY good turnout for a municipal by-election. Only a few hundred fewer voters than in last year's municipal election.

Results

R. King 18.36% (+123 votes)
J. Kwong 16.88%
P. Thompson 10.22%
M. Dorgeville 9.53%
S. Perry 8.91%
M. Lamirande 8.5%
J. Hamels 7.98%
K. Adamiec 6.09%
C. Penton 5.29%
O. Ngabirano 2.97%
P. Mayangi 1.62%
M. Horvath 1.07%
All other jokers below 1%

Turnout 30.61%

A good result. Ottawa city council needs more left-wing voices who won't let Jim Watson do whatever he wants, advocate for the sort of ambitious progressive and green public policies this city needs and hopefully hold the developers and contractors accountable. I'm fairly pleased with how well the candidate I supported did, lacking the endorsements and support of the political and business worlds. Pretty good turnout as well for a local by-election which pissed off a lot of people.

Yes, and it's nice to see the mayor's candidate finished third. Of course, in council races the mayor's candidate of choice doesn't run as the "mayor's candidate". I guess Jim wants to be seen as independent, despite the fact he very clearly has a team of councillors who support almost all of his agenda.  If Jim had his campaign team out in full force, he could've easily got Thompson elected.

What sort of "ambitious progressive and green public policies" are you guus thinking of Hash and Hatman?

Well, for me, my main local issues are:

- Support for ranked ballots
- Building more affordable housing
- More bike lanes / multi-use paths
- Lowering (or at least freezing) transit fares
- Not reducing the size of council (preferably increasing it)

Pipe dream: De-amalgamation and/or establish boroughs.

I'm with you on the council size one. Halifax has more MLA's than councillors thanks to size reductions ::)

Yup. As do many western Canadian cities. Ridiculous!

Green Party-commissioned riding poll for Nanaimo-Ladysmith: GRN 36%, NDP 24%, LIB 19%, CON 17%, People's 4%.

https://twitter.com/AJWVictoriaBC/status/1124729833483788288

The NDP would be a far better opposition than the Liberals.

First poll

Voting Results for the electoral district of Nanaimo—Ladysmith
Party   Candidate   Votes   Percent of Votes   Bar graph of percentage of votes
NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   10   12.2 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   1   1.2 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   18   22.0 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   35   42.7 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   0   0.0 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   17   20.7 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   1   1.2 %

Two polls

Voting Results for the electoral district of Nanaimo—Ladysmith
Party   Candidate   Votes   Percent of Votes   Bar graph of percentage of votes
NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   16   15.4 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   1   1.0 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   19   18.3 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   42   40.4 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   0   0.0 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   25   24.0 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   1   1.0 %

Four polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   35   15.2 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   4   1.7 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   32   13.9 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   74   32.0 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   0   0.0 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   85   36.8 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   1   0.4 %   

Eight polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   128   17.9 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   24   3.4 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   78   10.9 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   190   26.6 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   1   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   287   40.2 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   6   0.8 %   

Ten polls

   Candidate   Votes   Percent of Votes   Bar graph of percentage of votes
NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   192   21.6 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   26   2.9 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   96   10.8 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   223   25.1 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   2   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   341   38.4 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   8   0.9 %

Starting to look like the Greens will win this.

Fifteen Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   316   20.1 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   43   2.7 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   194   12.4 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   433   27.6 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   2   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   570   36.3 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   12   0.8 %   

Nineteen Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   427   20.7 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   54   2.6 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   252   12.2 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   554   26.8 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   2   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   760   36.8 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   18   0.9 %   

Over 200 polls in the riding, I wouldn't be making any big judgements just yet.

As I'm rooting for the Greens I rather want to though

The totals have been fairly consistent.

True, I'm just a little cautious is all.

Twenty Five Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   570   20.1 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   68   2.4 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   315   11.1 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   714   25.2 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   2   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   1,141   40.2 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   25   0.9 %

Thirty Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   713   21.3 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   83   2.5 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   380   11.3 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   828   24.7 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   4   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   1,318   39.3 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   29   0.9 %   

Thirty Three Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   848   22.0 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   113   2.9 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   434   11.3 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   939   24.4 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   5   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   1,479   38.4 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   32   0.8 %

Forty Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   1,072   22.7 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   140   3.0 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   521   11.1 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   1,078   22.9 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   7   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   1,856   39.4 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   39   0.8 %



Roy Orbison "It's Over"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a37tFLckO40

Forty Five Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   1,217   22.7 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   171   3.2 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   574   10.7 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   1,240   23.1 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   7   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   2,108   39.3 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   42   0.8 %

Fifty Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   1,395   22.9 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   193   3.2 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   656   10.7 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   1,424   23.3 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   7   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   2,385   39.1 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   44   0.7 %

Fifty Five Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   1,549   23.2 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   209   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   709   10.6 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   1,561   23.4 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   7   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   2,597   38.9 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   47   0.7 %

Sixty Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   1,668   22.9 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   227   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   773   10.6 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   1,718   23.6 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   8   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   2,829   38.9 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   50   0.7 %

Sixty Five polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   1,801   23.0 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   248   3.2 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   826   10.5 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   1,810   23.1 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   10   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   3,097   39.5 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   51   0.7 %

Interesting things to watch for:
1.Who will come in second
2.Will the Liberals get over 10% of the vote.

Seventy Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   1,913   22.4 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   267   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   897   10.5 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   2,041   23.9 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   11   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   3,369   39.4 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   56   0.7 %

Seventy Five Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   2,050   22.4 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   281   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   962   10.5 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   2,220   24.2 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   12   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   3,577   39.0 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   61   0.7 %

Eighty Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   2,194   22.5 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   297   3.0 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   1,028   10.5 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   2,345   24.0 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   13   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   3,812   39.1 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   65   0.7 %   

Eighty Six Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   2,343   22.4 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   326   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   1,115   10.7 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   2,514   24.0 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   13   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   4,077   39.0 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   73   0.7 %

Ninety Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   2,502   22.6 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   343   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   1,189   10.7 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   2,649   23.9 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   15   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   4,293   38.8 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   78   0.7 %

100 Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   2,798   22.8 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   383   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   1,298   10.6 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   2,947   24.0 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   17   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   4,751   38.7 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   83   0.7 %

105 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   2,908   22.7 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   403   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   1,359   10.6 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   3,090   24.1 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   19   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   4,966   38.7 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   85   0.7 %

110 polls
   
NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   3,070   22.7 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   428   3.2 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   1,446   10.7 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   3,265   24.1 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   20   0.1 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   5,214   38.5 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   90   0.7 %

115 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   3,215   22.8 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   441   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   1,516   10.8 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   3,382   24.0 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   22   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   5,432   38.5 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   93   0.7 %   

120 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   3,364   22.7 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   458   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   1,598   10.8 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   3,602   24.3 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   23   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   5,662   38.2 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   101   0.7 %

Both CBC and Global have projected a Green victory.

130 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   3,651   22.6 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   490   3.0 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   1,741   10.8 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   3,959   24.5 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   25   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   6,192   38.3 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   115   0.7 %   

135 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   3,799   22.6 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   508   3.0 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   1,832   10.9 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   4,108   24.4 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   27   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   6,421   38.2 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   120   0.7 %

140 Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   3,939   22.5 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   522   3.0 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   1,930   11.0 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   4,274   24.4 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   28   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   6,686   38.2 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   122   0.7 %

Surprise result! John Turmel has been declared the winner!

150 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   4,324   23.0 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   562   3.0 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   2,043   10.9 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   4,564   24.3 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   29   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   7,139   38.0 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   129   0.7 %

The Greens actually did it!

And now the real fun begins

160 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   4,646   23.1 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   611   3.0 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   2,156   10.7 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   4,944   24.5 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   31   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   7,623   37.8 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   138   0.7 %

170 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   4,953   23.0 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   668   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   2,298   10.7 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   5,255   24.4 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   33   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   8,154   37.9 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   146   0.7 %

180 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   5,230   22.8 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   714   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   2,482   10.8 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   5,664   24.7 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   35   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   8,637   37.7 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   152   0.7 %

195 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   6,083   23.2 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   805   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   2,838   10.8 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   6,474   24.6 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   43   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   9,860   37.5 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   172   0.7 %

200 Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   6,294   23.1 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   828   3.0 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   2,953   10.8 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   6,774   24.9 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   45   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   10,177   37.3 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   177   0.6 %

210 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   6,669   23.1 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   898   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   3,136   10.9 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   7,191   24.9 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   48   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   10,741   37.2 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   185   0.6 %

220 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   7,077   23.5 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   937   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   3,242   10.7 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   7,381   24.5 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   48   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   11,298   37.4 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   192   0.6 %

230 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   7,431   23.5 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   969   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   3,373   10.7 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   7,694   24.3 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   50   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   11,915   37.7 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   200   0.6 %

240 Polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   8,416   23.1 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   1,117   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   3,989   11.0 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   8,996   24.7 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   61   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   13,618   37.4 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   225   0.6 %

250 polls

NDP-New Democratic Party   Bob Chamberlin   9,246   23.0 %   
People's Party   Jennifer Clarke   1,230   3.1 %   
Liberal   Michelle Corfield   4,438   11.0 %   
Conservative   John Hirst   10,040   25.0 %   
National Citizens Alliance   Jakob Letkemann   65   0.2 %   
Green Party   Paul Manly   14,907   37.1 %   
PC Party   Brian Marlatt   247   0.6 %   

Not looking good for Jagmeet.  At this rate, I'm wondering how many seats he'll win.

The Progressive Canadians are still kicking around? Neat.

Lalonde has not confirmed she will be resining, so it's a little pre-mature to say it will be down to 5. Only if she wins the nomination.

Also, anyone thinking there might be something going on with both of these women leaving?  Possible disagreement with Fraser?  Seems more than a coincidence.

Stephen McNeil has called a by-election in Sackville-Cobequid for June 18th. The election is being held to replace former NDP cabinet minister and leadership candidate Dave Wilson, who retired last year. Sackville-Cobequid is traditionally an NDP seat, but it has been close a few times and the Tories are running a star candidate, Steve Craig, the councilor for the area.

Should be an NDP hold, but the Tories have an outside shot at picking up the seat.

Nathalie Des Roisiers (Liberal MPP for Ottawa-Vanier) is resigning to seek a job in academia. This will be the fourth by-election in that area in the last four years (Des Rosiers was elected in a 2016 by-election, and there was one federally in 2017, and a municipal by-election a few weeks ago).

Could be a potential NDP target if they run the right candidate (Emilie Taman maybe?). The demographics are right, but it is seen as a "safe Liberal" seat. But, the NDP came within 9 points of winning it in the 2011 federal election.

Should be a Liberal hold, they're polling 6-7 points higher than before, and this was their highest vote share. In theory, they could hold the by-election the same day as the Federal, but I suspect they wouldn't like that. It's understandable I suppose, this position is far more attractive than sitting next to Mike Schreiner and asking a question every two weeks (not that I have anything against Mike Schreiner, but it tells you all you need to know about the position of the OLP,) especially when you can be confident that Bob Chiarelli or someone can come in and hold the seat for you.

Ok, but by-elections are quite different. Look at recent examples London West, Kitchener-Waterloo and Niagara Falls.

This never happens in Canada.


Wrong end of town for Chiarelli to run in (he's also not a Francophone), plus he's pretty old now, so I'm sure he's had enough of politics.

Had the NDP run a good candidate (and a Franco), they would've won this seat last year. They came so close to winning Ottawa West and did very well in Ottawa South, two much more suburban ridings (with no NDP history!) than Ottawa-Vanier. Ottawa-Vanier is mostly an urban riding, and the western part of it is arguably the most left wing part of the city (especially Sandy Hill). Rideau-Rockcliffe just elected an NDP affiliated city councillor in a by-election. The riding can be won by the NDP.

Don't deny that by-elections are different, especially for the NDP. But at the moment, there's no reason why it should go any other way. On paper, this is a Liberal riding which should stay that way barring something. Chiarelli was still Mayor of Ottawa and I know he would be a good candidate if he ran, but I'm sure the Liberals would want a Francophone replacement. Emilie Taman herself is running in Ottawa Centre, (a better prospect), so she'd have to jump ship quickly. The riding can be won by the NDP, sure, but things are looking up for the OLP, especially in this region as the PCs lose popularity. It's a bit far to say that this should not be a Liberal hold, when all things are considered, just because it's a great opportunity for the NDP. Whatever happens, the PCs should tank.

The Liberals are leaderless at the moment, so things aren't really looking up for them- except for their polling, which is really just an artifact of reverting to the mean. I.e. "the bad lady's gone now, I suppose I can support the Liberals again". But, when it comes to actually voting people might want to support the main opposition party rather than the third party with only a handful of seats and no leader.

I forgot Taman was running federally, so that makes things difficult for the party. They're just beginning to (re)-build a local bench, and so don't have anyone other than Taman who is truly a 'star candidate', at least no one who is Francophone. Rawlson King just got elected to city council, and he's not a Franco, so he's out.  Lyra Evans wasn't a good candidate and isn't a Franco either (though, she's now a school trustee, so she's probably improved as a candidate) Another possibility is my school trustee, Chris Ellis, but again, not a Franco...

It really depends on which way the Libs are perceived as going.  And while Ottawa-Vanier's definitely NDP-targetable on paper, under the circumstance that'd really depend upon conventional wisdom that the Ontario Liberals are headed for oblivion a la the Prairie Liberal parties.  And present polling doesn't support such oblivion theorem...

As long as the by-election occurs when U of O students are back (i.e., September or later), I'd say the NDP has a good chance.

By-elections in ridings with a large university/student component are unique in that students don't have to make the choice where to vote.  In a general, many students decide strategically to vote in their home riding as opposed to their university town one. 

Sackville Cobequid by-election is today.

the results are more back and forth than game 6 of the NBA finals. NDP leads by 16 votes with 16/40 polls in.

31/40; 1269 NDP, 1126 PC, 338 Lib, 296 GP, 16 Atlantica

34 polls in, it's now 1399-1264

All 40 polls--PC 2655, NDP 2472, Lib 655, GP 488, Atlantica 43.  (I presume the advance polls pushed the Tories over.)

Awful

https://twitter.com/EarlWashburn/status/1141157014166544391

I guess the NDP lost a bit to non voters/Greens while the Liberal vote collapsed into the PCs.

Not especially surprising. PC's are up in the polls, had a star candidate, and the NDP could have done a better job. Burill is not a great fit for the area.

Technically not a by-election, but the deferred election in Charlottetown-Hillsborough was today. Polls are now closed, and with the advanced poll in, the PCs have a decent lead:

PC 620
Lib 395
Grn 363
NDP 19

Because it's PEI, that's probably more than half the vote in the district in

https://mobile.twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1150908031569473536?p=v

Good result for the PCs. Bad result for the Greens.

Clearly a honeymoon period. The PCs haven't won a seat in Charlottetown since 2003.

Obviously. And this was going to be their best seat there anyway.

I think people in Charlottetown read that Warren Kinsella was going to work for the Greens and they were so disgusted that they voted PC as a protest

One would hope so.

I doubt most voters in Charlottetown even know who Warren Kinsella is, least of all to the point where they can make ballot-box judgment on him.

And somehow, this result makes me wonder whether the Greens will be an oppositional one-election wonder, a la Mario Dumont's Adequistes, the Carstairs Liberals in Manitoba, the Joliffe CCF in Ontario, etc...

We were being facetious.


I agree. Obviously it's a good result for the PCs, but the Greens and the Liberals were three points apart.

Of course, the Bouchard Bloquistes are certainly the most notable oppositional one election wonder in my view. Jack Layton's NDP too. Obviously those are both federal parties.

We were being facetious.


I agree. Obviously it's a good result for the PCs, but the Greens and the Liberals were three points apart.

Of course, the Bouchard Bloquistes are certainly the most notable oppositional one election wonder in my view. Jack Layton's NDP too. Obviously those are both federal parties.

The Bloc was NOT a "one election wonder". The took 54 seats in 1993, but they went on to take between 40 and 50 seats in 1997, 2000, 2004, 2006 and 2008. They dominated Quebec federally for almost 20 years. It wasn't until the NDP surge of 2011 that they were demolished.

I'm aware. I corrected my post to show what I mean - they were only the official opposition once - as that is what the last few posts have been referring to.

Maybe? Hard to say which seat is "their best". In 2015, their best Charlottetown seat was Brighton, which they lost by 24 votes. In 2011, they nearly won Tracadie-Hillsborough Park, including most of the polls in Hillsborough Park. 2007 was a disaster for the Tories, only breaking 40% in two ridings in the city (best was Lewis Park at 41%). In 2003, they won all but two ridings in Charlottetown, with their best being Belvedere. In other words, it's PEI, so it matters more who the candidates are.

When it comes to federal elections though, the Tories do seem to do the best in Hillsborough Park though.

The Ontario CCF/NDP has quite a history of being in and out of being official opposition. - they were opposition with 34 seats in 1943, then back into 3rd with 8 seats in 1945, then back to being OO with 21 seats in 1948, then back to just 3 seats in 1951. Then a series of election in the 60s and 70s where the NDP and Ontario Liberals were very close...1971: Libs 21 seats, NDP 19 1975: NDP 38 seats, Liberals 36 seats, 1977: OLP 34 seats, NDP 33 seats. In 1987 the NDP became OO to a majority Liberal government with 19 seats to 16 for the PCs, then they won in 1990, then back to third in 1995, 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2014. Now OO again with 40 seats to the OLP's derisory 7.

Though 1993 was really an electoral fluke thanks to the scale of Tory/NDP collapse and Reform fust falling short--and really, thanks to a finite number of viable seats, the Bloc had little or no choice but to plateau or lose ground, while Reform had more elbow room to grow.

And remember that when I'm talking about one-election wonders, I'm not simply talking about ekeing into OO for a single term, I'm talking about dramatic jumps into OO followed by dramatic falls--in which case the CCF's Ontario stints in the 40s count, but *not* Stephen Lewis in 1975, since his falling back into third in 1977 didn't involve a lot of lost ground.

Come to think of it, when it comes to the Maritimes, if we're thinking of governments as well as OO the Darrell Dexter NDP gov't in NS definitely counts--and then there's the matter of the Confederation of Regions in NB, who came from nowhere to become OO in 1991, then were wiped back off the map next election...

Stephen McNeil has called three by-elections (Argyle-Barrington, Northside-Westmount, and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg) as a result of three Tory MLA's winning federal nominations and resigning their seats. Elections are set for the day after Labour Day, so expect super low turnout. One other MLA, Lenore Zann has won a federal nomination but isn't resigning her seat until the writ drops.

I would expect Tory holds in all three seats.

My question is why are they resigning?  All of those seats will be tough to win federally while with Stephen McNeil's numbers in the tank, there is a good chance the PCs will form government after the election in 2021, whereas federally the odds of a Tory win are much lower.

Are you asking why are they resigning or why are they running? If the former the law requires it, if the latter then I agree with you completely.

I would distinguish between d'Entremont and the Cape Bretoners. West Nova would be a relatively Tory friendly seat if it wasn't for the large Francophone minority... but d'Entremont is a Francophone representing a Francophone district, so the federal seat is a great deal more winnable for him than the 2015 result would suggest.

As for MacLeod and Orrell, I have no hard evidence, but there are rumours going around that they don't care for the new provincial leader, which would tilt the scales a bit.

I agree that d'Entremont has the best chance. Interestingly the reverse can be said for the seats they vacated?

What's wrong with Houston. And why is it Cape Breton MLAs that dislike him - add Paon's issues too, although that's mostly her fault.

I think PCs will probably hold all three simply due to how unpopular McNeil is.  Lets remember McNeil's approval ratings now are comparable to Wynne and Selinger at the time of both of their defeats and with by-elections having low turnouts, usually those mad at the government are more motivated to show up than those happy with them.

I would expect the Tories to retain all three resigned seats. They held them in 2009's landslide loss, so it shouldn't be hard to retain them while leading the polls.

As for the Cape Breton thing, I've heard they are upset at Houston for being more Halifax-centric than Baillie was. Cape Breton has trended hard Tory over the past few years, primarily as a result of the Tories focusing on rural healthcare shortages and Houstan has moved away from that. Some of it is also the result of style differences. Houston is quite urbane, almost Trudeauish, while MacLeod and Orrell are more the old-style, back slapping, baby kissing, rubber chicken in a church basement type of politician.

Keep in mind this is all based off rumours, so take what I'm saying with a grain of salt.

Even Doug Ford is more popular than McNeil.

He may be less UNpopular, but neither of them could be described as "popular"

By-elections to replace the three Tory MLA's who resigned to run federally, are being held today; Argyle-Barrington, Northside-Westmount, and Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg. Given the provincial polls, I would expect all three seats to be comfortable Tory holds.

By-elections were held yesterday in Nova Scotia. Two snoozers plus one really weird result:

Argyle-Barrington
Tory: 62% (-3)
Liberal: 31% (+1)
NDP: 3% (-1)
Green: 3% (+3)

Northside-Westmount
Tory: 29% (-34)
Liberal: 21% (nc)
Indy (Danny Laffin) 19%
NDP: 17% (+1)
Indy (Andrew Doyle) 10%
Green: 3% (+3)

Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg
Tory: 44% (-24)
Liberal: 31% (+7)
Indy (Russ Green) 13%
NDP: 8% (nc)
Green: 4% (+4)

Couple quick thoughts:

1) That weird result was due to the then-Tory candidate getting booted mid campaign under questionable circumstances (he got #MeToo'd over an incident that he had disclosed to the party in two seperate candidacies), and running as an Indy

2) The Tories seem to have dropped a bit in Cape Breton from their spectacular highs in 2017. Given that they have taken the lead in the polls since then, that would suggest larger gains in Halifax and the rural mainland.

Bad results for the Tories, a drop in all three ridings (though, strong independent campaigns contributed to that).

The Liberals actually gaining ground in 2 of the 3 ridings is a surprise.

The Sydney River result is especially concerning. Northside-Westmount is understandable given the mess that went on, and the Argyle-Barrington is basically the status quo, but Sydney River? Alfie MacLeod was very popular, but I don't think he was 25%-drop-when-he-retires popular.

I wish the other MLA turned federal candidate had resigned too. That would have provided a non-Tory held seat to help "calibrate" things.


Yes, that definitely surprised me. I was expecting decent sized drops.

In NB former federal and provincial cabinet minister and Saint Croix MLA Greg Thompson passed away. If the Liberals or Greens win the ensuing by-election than the Greens and Liberals would hold a majority of seats in the legislature.


https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5278834 (https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5278834)

I suppose anything is possible but that is a pretty conservative area of the province and the Higgs PC government is still in an apparent honeymoon

NDP MLA Lenore Zann was elected as a Liberal MP for Cumberland-Colchester, prompting her resignation provincially. We should have a by-election for her Truro-Bible Hill--Millbrook-Salmon River seat in the next several months. Should be an interesting test for all three major parties.

Upcoming by-elections:

Nov 24: Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, Laval, QC (municipal)
Dec 2: Jean-Talon, QC (provincial)
Dec 15: District 1, Saguenay, QC (municipal)

I don't think we'll have any others this year.

By-elections to be aslo held in:
Regina Walsh Acres (new Conservative MP for Regina-Lewvan)
Saskatoon Eastview (new Conservative MP for Saskatoon-University)

Are you sure those byelections wouldnt be superseded by the Sask general election set to take place this coming spring?

Those based on past by-elections look like easy NDP pick ups, but after federal election and with anger at Trudeau tough to say.  I do think for Ryan Meilli, Trudeau being re-elected dramatically reduced his odds of winning.  Both UCP in Alberta and Saskatchewan Party are popular as people in both provinces hate Trudeau and those two are seen as standing up to him whereas had Tories won, more focus on their own records and couldn't use feds as whipping boy.

Former Olympic sprinter Bruny Surin is running in that race.

Cool!  He lost in a close three-way race:

Michel Trottier, Parti Laval 1501 (35%) +4%
Bruny Surin, Mouvement lavallois 1419 (33%) -12%
Francine Leblanc, Action Laval 1251 (29%) +17%
Gabriel Vellone, Progrès Laval 83 (2%) (new)

A star candidate for the party that has all but 2 seats on city council, and he lost? The current administration must not be popular.

Can someone explain what the four parties in Laval stand for? Is one more progressive than the others?

They're all vaguely centre left / centre, I think. As with most municipal political parties outside Montreal, they're mostly cults of personalities. Former NDP MP Francois Pilon ran for Parti Laval in 2017 and Action Laval used to be led by Jean-Claude Gobe, a federal Liberal and Adequiste. Wikipedia describes Mouvement lavallois as Social Democratic.

Upon doing more research, it looks like several Mouvement lavallois members defected to Action Laval, so it's not surprising that they Surin didn't do well.

Anybody know when in New Brunswick, Saint Croix by-election will be held.  With the death of Greg Thompson I am guessing the PCs will want to call one before the budget unless they are hoping for an election.  At this point Blaine Higgs has reasonably good poll numbers although often local candidates play an outsized role in Atlantic Canada, but unless Liberals can find a star candidate, probably stays PC.  Greens not particularly strong in this area, while PANB has lost a fair bit never mind is more in the middle parts of the province, the southern parts are more solidly PC.

No clue, but seems it will be at the same time as Shediac Bay (caused by the resignation of Brian Gallant, former Premier).

That makes sense as balance of power the same.  Liberals should easily hold Shediac Bay.

Mainstreet has CAQ +10 in Jean-Talon. (https://lactualite.com/politique/un-chateau-fort-liberal-sur-le-point-de-tomber-dans-jean-talon/)

Doesn't surprise me. Despite this riding having always voted Liberal since its creation in 1966 (and before that since 1952), the Liberals have rarely broken 45% in recent years. Now with an alternative right-of-centre non-separatist party, federalist voters can shop around.

It's not really a particularly federalist riding (relatively speaking); it was only 52% Non, and nearly voted PQ in both 1994 and 1998. Which makes a CAQ victory even less surprising; the issue in the past seems to be that the PQ retained a lot of residual strength and organization even when they weren't in a position to potentially win (e.g., the PQ were still a solid second in 2007 over the ADQ in distant third despite the ADQ knocking the PQ into third province-wide).

Last night was the by-election in Jean-Talon.

Results:

CAQ: 43.4% (+14.8 )
PLQ: 25.0% (-7.5)
QS: 17.0% (-2.2)
PQ: 9.3% (-5.1)
PVQ: 2.8% (+1.0)
PCQ: 1.0% (-0.8 )
Oth: 1.5% (-0.5)

Turnout: 49.2% (-26.0)

CAQ GAIN from PLQ (Swing: 11.2%)

This was the PLQ's last seat outside of the Montreal or Ottawa metro regions, correct? That's going to be a problem in the future.

That's what the local articles I read said. They now hold no seats east of Montreal.

Kind of lays bare the truth that the party is not much more than the English vote.

Yeah, the Liberals are in danger of becoming the Anglo/Allophone party, which won't win them any elections.

At this point, QS has more broader representation in the NA then the Liberals.

They need to pick a spot on the spectrum and stand for a certain ideology.  Problem with PLQ is they are essentially a catch all federalist party with members from across the political spectrum and only thing keeping them united was desire to prevent another referendum.  With that threat gone, most Francophones are switching to which party philosophically aligns most with their views.

Do you think they should be a social liberal party against the cultural conservatism of the CAQ and the socialism of the PQ/QS?

That would seem the logical solution and normally the centre is where elections are won and lost.  Problem is it seems globally and increasingly in Canada you are getting stronger left/right polarization.  All provinces west of Ontario have a centre-right vs. NDP while federally Liberals only survived by moving into NDP territory so it should in theory work.  But there is a question are we still centrists or with most going to echo chambers, are we becoming more polarized with a hollowed out middle.

It's an interesting idea, but that coalition would have similar electoral problems to the Liberals' Anglo/Allo one. Bill 21 is very popular among Francos.

Yeah, it would be a perfect fit if they just want to win Anglo & Allo votes in Montreal.

Problem is, outside of Montreal, Quebec is a fairly homogeneous place. Very hard to tap into that population when they're content with the status quo.

Be an explocitly social democratic progressive Federalist Party, offering a distinction clearly to the left of the CAQ for federalist Franco’s to vote for.

District 1 By-election in Saguenay Saturday:

Jimmy Bouchard, Ind. 30.3%
Daniel Tremblay-Larouche, Ind. 28.1%
Dominic Gagnon, Alliance Saguenay 21.4%, +17.3 (party leader)
Gilles Tremblay, Democratic Renewal 10.9%, -7.6 (this is the mayor's party)
Réjean Hudon, Ind 9.3%

Seat was previously held by an independent. The mayor's party continues to have just 4/16 seats on council. The rest are independents.

Tammy Martin, NDP MLA for Cape Breton Centre has resigned her seat due to poor health. The by-election is expected to be a Liberal-NDP race.

I presume a 2020 thread's called for.

By your command: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=356635.0

By elections have been called for March 10th in Cape Breton Centre and Truro-Bible Hill

Wrong thread klaxon?