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Title: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: IceAgeComing on February 01, 2019, 06:49:17 AM Around a month away: I'll do a more detailed effort post on the background of the election as far as I can gather soon. Because I'm lazy I'm going to copy and paste my post on it from AAD.
So as Latvia settles down; we shift towards another Baltic election as Estonia votes in early March. I'll try to post a big post on this in the future but in quick summary: in 2015 the Reform Party (the liberal party; one of the primary forces behind Estonia's very liberal economic policies) topped the poll and managed to form a coalition with the Social Democrats (who're questionably social democratic; although they were willing in the past to resign from government or let themselves be sacked so they aren't totally spineless) and Pro Patria (a right wing party who're the subject of a merger between two parties that were the typical Baltic new hot things for a while before dying). In 2016 after the three parties didn't get on the junior partners booted out Reform and instead formed a government with the Centre Party (who're also a Liberal party; tend to be more to the left, more populist and get a large chunk of their support from the Russian minority which is why they were treated like Harmony for a long time until they knifed long time leader Edgar Savisaar for someone more popular with the other parties) under Jüri Ratas. Not much has really changed in terms of government policy I think: I admit to not following Estonia quite as closely as I should but I'll try to read up a little if I have time between work stuff. Estonian polling is of dubious value: the current opinion polls all show generally a close contest between both Reform and the Centre Party for the position of biggest party and between government and opposition. The main change is the growth of EKRE who're a... rather dodgy right-wing populist party with links to not very nice groups in America - perhaps one of their more memorable things was advocating for "the correct teaching" of the Nazi occupation. In the last election they got around 8% of the vote and finished sixth; in this election they're polling at near 20% and are the clear third place party behind the big two. The main issue for the government is that both their junior partners have fallen in support quite strongly: the Social Democrats are around 10% and Pro Patria are polling near the threshold of 5%. There are a couple of other parties worth keeping an eye on: E200 is one of those weird technocratic mass movement type deals which is probably comically corrupt: former Pro Patria leader Margus Tsahkna has joined them and seems to be their only real big name; and the Greens have flirted with the threshold at times and seem to be the only Green party in the region that actually cares about the environment and isn't obviously just the machine of a rich person which is probably why they've not been in the Estonian parliament since 2011. I'm also pretty sure that Estonia is the only EU country where the top two parties are members of the same European Party - Centre and Reform are both members of ALDE. Doesn't mean that they get on with each other though! Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: _ on February 01, 2019, 11:23:49 AM So apparently there are the normal Greens (Estonian Greens), and Richness of Life which is another Green party? I don't understand why Richness of Life exists, they'll probably just stop the regular Greens from breaking the threshold...
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: IceAgeComing on February 04, 2019, 05:27:18 AM So apparently there are the normal Greens (Estonian Greens), and Richness of Life which is another Green party? I don't understand why Richness of Life exists, they'll probably just stop the regular Greens from breaking the threshold... They exist because their leader (Artur Talvik; he led the Free Party list at the last election despite not being a party member, then he joined and became leader, and then he resigned to form his own party: which is entirely typical for the region - as is him not standing as the parties PM candidate for some reason) wanted his own political force and for no other reason. The region historically has had a lot of these sort of parties (weird vague populist centrist parties who stand for nice sounding things like direct democracy or anti-corruption: and then inevitably die when it turns out they don't practice what they preach) and I'd less look at their stated ideology and more where their leaders came from. From what I can gather they aren't polling well at all so they may well not get anywhere close - the voting system in Estonia lets people vote for candidates and if an individual candidate gets enough votes to win a seat then they get in despite thresholds: and since Talvik is their only candidate of note he might just get in by himself. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on February 07, 2019, 05:12:27 AM Centre Party prefers current coalition to continue. However, Pro Patria might find it to awkward to continue the centre-left cooperation:
Quote Looking for coalition partners after the general election on 3 March, the Centre Party's first choice will be the Social Democrats (SDE) and Pro Patria, Centre deputy chair and Minister of Economic Affairs Kadri Simson said in an interview. Ms Simson told daily Maaleht that if the Centre wins the upcoming election, she thinks its current partners in the government would be the party's first choice for next government also. "We've seen that even with such different world views, it's still possible to find a consensus that moves Estonia forward," Ms Simson told the paper. The current coalition of Centre, SDE and Pro Patria dates back to late 2016, when the two junior partners of what until that point was a Reform-led government toppled Prime Minister Taavi Rõivas, and Jüri Ratas took over. This replaced a predominantly centre-right government led by Reform into a predominantly centre-left government led by the Centre Party, a fact conservative junior partner Pro Patria has had difficulties with. The government's continuous infighting on positions such as the UN Global Compact on Migration as well as personal animosities as between Pro Patria's justice minister, Urmas Reinsalu, and his SDE colleagues has been an issue on a quarterly basis at the very least. Taking into account Pro Patria's increasingly right-leaning rhetoric in the ongoing campaign, the question remains whether there will be enough common ground left come election day. https://news.err.ee/908098/simson-coalition-with-sde-pro-patria-first-choice-of-centre-party Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on February 07, 2019, 05:27:56 AM Even if the government does win a majority, it would seem very unwise for Pro Patria to continue with Center and SDE, unless they want to be annihilated electorally by EKRE and Reform.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on February 07, 2019, 05:43:01 AM The Interior Ministry has calculated the new distribution of seats between multi-member constituencies. 958,571 persons are eligible to vote.
valimisringkond nr 1 (Tallinna Haabersti, Põhja-Tallinn ja Kristiine) – 10 mandaati; valimisringkond nr 2 (Tallinna Kesklinna, Lasnamäe ja Pirita) – 13 mandaati; valimisringkond nr 3 (Tallinna Mustamäe ja Nõmme) – 8 mandaati; valimisringkond nr 4 (Harju- ja Raplamaa) – 15 mandaati; valimisringkond nr 5 ( Hiiu-, Lääne- ja Saaremaa) – 6 mandaati; valimisringkond nr 6 (Lääne-Virumaa) – 5 mandaati; valimisringkond nr 7 (Ida-Virumaa) – 7 mandaati; valimisringkond nr 8 (Järva- ja Viljandimaa) – 7 mandaati; valimisringkond nr 9 (Jõgeva- ja Tartumaa) – 7 mandaati; valimisringkond nr 10 (Tartu linn) – 8 mandaati; valimisringkond nr 11 (Võru-, Valga- ja Põlvamaa) – 8 mandaati; valimisringkond nr 12 (Pärnumaa) – 7 mandaati. Two of the Tallinn constituencies (1 & 2) as well as the constituency surrounding Talinn (4) all gain a seat while the constituency 9 (around Tartu), 11 (South-East) and 12 (Pärnu) all lose a seat. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: IceAgeComing on February 07, 2019, 07:38:40 AM EKRE is clearly where Pro Patria are worried about their votes going; certainly being involved in government while the UN migration pact is a thing isn't helping them. Although Reform also would have supported it so in some ways they'd be in the same situation regardless and there were reasons why they booted Reform out of office earlier on.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on February 26, 2019, 08:04:30 AM That's a hell of a gender gap.
At 8 PM yesterday, 21.5% had already voted early. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on February 26, 2019, 10:58:22 AM Leading party by constituency, although several of them are very tight. The Centre Party is ahead in the three Tallinn constituencies and Ida-Virumaa. Reform party leads in Tartu and the 4 Central constituencies. Reform and EKRE tied in the constituency surrounding Tartu, and EKRE ahead in the South-East and the Western islands constituency.
() Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on February 26, 2019, 11:05:30 AM There is speculation about a coalition between Centre and Reform after the election.
Reform PM candidate Kaja Kallas says that there that are "three big issues. The rest of the topics can be negotiated. But in matters of principle, we won't compromise,". Kallas also repeats that EKRE is the only party, she will not negotiate with. The three big issues are taxation, citizenship and language in schools. The Reform Party is opposed to the progressive taxation elements introduced by the current government. The Reform Party wants to keep the current citizenship system, while Centre wants to open up for some forms of expedited naturalisation, especially in the case of people of families who have resided in Estonia for an extended amount of time. Where the Centre Party is leaning towards keeping up Estonia's Russian schools, the Reform Party wants an entirely Estonian-based education system, starting as early as nursery school. https://news.err.ee/914570/kallas-tax-citizenship-schools-main-obstacles-to-centre-reform-coalition Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 02, 2019, 10:55:28 AM Almost 40% have already voted early (many of them online), up from 33% in 2015. Reform overperform in the early and online vote, Center and EKRE on election day.
The last Kantar poll has Reform at 27%, Center at 25% and EKRE down four points at 17%. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on March 02, 2019, 05:38:27 PM ERR editor Dario Cavegn predict a Centre-Reform coalition.
Quote This editor's prediction is now what it was two years ago: that we are inevitably gravitating towards a coalition of the Centre Party and the Reform Party. A deal between political dinosaurs Edgar Savisaar (Centre) and Siim Kallas (Reform) might have made the latter president in 2016, but failed against opposition in both parties: enough of the old guard, not another round of that ever-same late-1990s stand-off. But this failed attempt at consolidation was followed by Centre's swiftly getting rid of Savisaar, replacing him with Jüri Ratas, which catapulted it into the political limelight and made Mr Ratas prime minister within just a short time. Now, in early 2019, one may well think the two parties could actually help each other, whether they like it or not: Centre, still disorganised and not quite done yet with its own housekeeping, could do with an experienced partner. In turn, there seem to be plenty of people in the Reform Party who would welcome the opportunity to do things slightly differently, ie without the 1990s neoconservative dogma of Isamaa's tax and social policy hanging over their heads. In this sense, going into government together, though unthinkable until just a short time ago, would give both parties room to breathe and develop. Another detail is that while Reform could have made Centre's frozen agreement with United Russia an issue again, it didn't. In fact, the matter hardly surfaced, even in the final phase of the campaign. This may be a sign that Reform regarding a potential coalition is at least keeping its options open. A Centre-Reform government could be both interdependent and sober enough to tackle Estonia's current issues, from tax policy to healthcare to business and infrastructure and transport. In a nutshell, it is this combination that would have both the political potential as well as the real-life power in parliament to redefine Estonia's course—while in any other combination, the muddling-through would likely continue. https://news.err.ee/916096/editor-s-prediction-centre-to-win-form-next-government-with-reform-party Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Tender Branson on March 03, 2019, 03:03:56 AM It's interesting how turnout in Eastern Europe rises, once countries and their people get wealthier ...
Turnout could hit 70% today, up from 58% in the 2000s. It has been steadily rising. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: FredLindq on March 03, 2019, 04:18:29 AM If ER is the strongest party we will have a great coalition ER+EK or ER+SDE+I like Taavi Rõivas' second cabinet. If EK is the largest party we will have a great coalition EK+ER or EK+SDE+I like the current guvernment. All this since ER has said that they cant cooperate with EKRE.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 07:27:22 AM It's interesting how turnout in Eastern Europe rises, once countries and their people get wealthier ... Slovenia and Poland are among the more wealthy countries in Central and Eastern Europe and also among the countries that have the lowest turnout (Bulgaria has higher turnout than Poland). Montenegro, on the other hand, has pretty decent turnout (in the 70s). Turnout in many places in Western Ukraine tends to be in the high 70s; across the border, in much richer Slovakia and Poland, it is much lower. Turnout mostly seems to be negatively affected by a) extensive corruption and b) the existence of a broad sense that ideology doesn't play a real and meaningful role in politics - of course, the two are interconnected. Hungary had high very high turnout by CEE standards (70%) because the ideological difference between Fidesz and the opposition was so clear. On the other hand, widespread clientelism can also drive up turnout (suspecting this is the case in Montenegro). Countries that have more "fluid" party systems seem to have lower turnout too, as voters are less connected to parties. But this doesn't explain all cases (such as relatively low turnout in Poland, where corruption is relatively low compared to other countries in the region, ideology matters, and the party system isn't all that fluid). Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 08:58:29 AM Turnout at 12 was 47% compared to 42% in 2015.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 11:22:46 AM 57.2% had voted at 4 PM compared to 56% in 2015. Kind of disappointing that the promising turnout increase seems to be evaporating on e-day.
Low turnout on e-day should be good news for Reform, who overperformed by a lot in the early vote, and bad news for Center and especially EKRE. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: PetrSokol on March 03, 2019, 12:43:35 PM Is somewhere pls the live tv coverage?
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 12:48:53 PM Compared to 2015, turnout in Ida-Viru county at 4 PM was down by 6 points at 41.6%. This is the Center stronghold in the northeast of the country, bordering Russia and harboring many ethnic Russians. Lack of enthusiasm for Center among Russians after their stint in government?
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 12:50:49 PM Is somewhere pls the live tv coverage? Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on March 03, 2019, 12:59:44 PM E-vote results should be the first to come. They looked like this in 2015:
Reform Party 37,5% (2015 election overall: 27,7%) Pro Patria and Res Publica (IRL) 17,2% (13,7%) Social Democratic Party (SDE) 16,9% (15,2%) Free Party 12% (8,7%) Centre Party 7,7% (24,8%) Conservative People’s Party (EKRE) 6,9% (8,1%) Polls should close now, right? But the watch at ERR seems to count down with an additional hour? Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 01:09:09 PM Polls have now closed according to ERR. But there will be no exit poll and the hall behind the reporter seems empty, so perhaps the party just starts a bit later.
In the meantime I found this Election Compass (https://valijakompass.err.ee/default/default/et). The options range from completely agree to completely disagree (from left to right), with "no opinion" as the farthest option on the right. My result: EKRE 73% Free Party (Vabaerakond) 69% Pro Patria (Isamaa) 69% Reform 62% Eesti 200 61% Richness of Life 59% Center 55% Green 54% Social Democrats 50% () Without pluses and minuses for the importance of statements they are all between 56% and 67% agreed, with the Greens and the SocDems at 56% and Eesti 200 at 67%. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 01:26:48 PM Apparently Reform leading candidate Kaja Kallas just did a 180 on whether Center is their preferred coalition partner. Kallas now says they're not. They also exclude EKRE, so I wonder what they think would be their alternative path to 51.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on March 03, 2019, 01:33:49 PM Apparently Reform leading candidate Kaja Kallas just did a 180 on whether Center is their preferred coalition partner. Kallas now says they're not. Did they state that it would be their preferred partner beforehand? I just saw her ruling out EKRE as a coalition partner. Which basically leaves Centre, or a return to SDE+Isamaa if E200 does not come in. Would not be particularly clever if they ruled out one of them as well. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 01:37:37 PM Apparently Reform leading candidate Kaja Kallas just did a 180 on whether Center is their preferred coalition partner. Kallas now says they're not. Did they state that it would be their preferred partner beforehand? I just saw her ruling out EKRE as a coalition partner. Which basically leaves Centre, or a return to SDE+Isamaa if E200 does not come in. Would not be particularly clever if they ruled out one of them as well. Center prefer a continuation of their coalition with SDE and Pro Patria. This should be the internet vote. As expected, but Center somewhat weaker and Reform somewhat stronger: Reform 40% EKRE 13.5% Pro Patria 12.6% Centre Party 11.7% Social Democrats 11.4% Estonia 200 5.5% In 2015 this was: Reform 37.5% Pro Patria 17.2% Social Democrats 16.9% Free Party 12% Centre 7.7% EKRE 6.9% Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on March 03, 2019, 01:38:47 PM First results have come in. https://rk2019.valimised.ee/et/election-result/election-result.html
It seems this is the E-votes. As expected massive support for Reform party here. But they are on 40.0%, higher than in the e-vote in 2015. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: FredLindq on March 03, 2019, 01:44:54 PM Change in the e-vote compared with last Election
ER +2.5 EKRE +6.6 I -5.6 EK +4.0 SDE -5.5 E200 +5.5 Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Tender Branson on March 03, 2019, 01:47:53 PM Good result for Kaja Kallas ...
Looks like she and Reform will win and become the new PM. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: bigic on March 03, 2019, 01:53:26 PM Kallas didn't say that Center is her preferred coalition partner. She only said that it's possible, with 3 points of disagreement that IIRC are her conditions for such a coalition - everything else being open to negotiation.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: PetrSokol on March 03, 2019, 01:57:56 PM On-line blog in English about elections on TV webpage
https://news.err.ee/916211/election-night-live-blog-follow-events-live-starting-19-55-eet-sunday Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: FredLindq on March 03, 2019, 02:10:28 PM I think that 5,5% for E200 is to little for the in order cross the 5-% threshold. I think that they Will get a smaller share in the election day votes.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: bigic on March 03, 2019, 02:11:35 PM My results of the ERR political compass:
Reform 71% Richness of Life 68% Estonia 200 66% Social Democrats 64% Centre 64% Greens 60% Pro Patria 55% Free Party 54% EKRE 48% I took the test in Russian and translated the questions I didn't understand using Google Translate. Political compass: () Left/right - economic left/right Up - social liberalism Bottom - social conservatism Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 02:11:54 PM Offline votes are coming in pretty quickly now. Reform down to 37.2%, EKRE up to 15.1% and Center to 13.4%.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 02:20:56 PM Reform 36.8% - 43
EKRE 15.4% - 16 Center 13.7% - 14 Pro Patria 12.6% - 13 SDE 11.2% - 11 E200 5.2% - 4 Doesn't bode well for E200. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: FredLindq on March 03, 2019, 02:22:26 PM If the changes in the e-votes are the same as in the election day voting we could have a result like this.
ER 30% 33 seats EK 29% 32 EKRE 15% 16 SDE 10% 11 I 8% 9 I still think that E200 will not make it. So ER+EK 65 seats (grand liberal coalition) or ER+SDE+I 53 seats (centre right coalition) or EK+SDE+I 52 seats (current centreleft coalition) Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 02:29:35 PM Reform 35.4%, EKRE 15.9%, Center 15%, Isamaa 12.4%, SDE 11.1%, E200 5.1%. We're going to see E200 dip under the threshold pretty soon. Center will overtake EKRE as expected.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: FredLindq on March 03, 2019, 02:36:23 PM 211 out off 451 districts counted
Reform 34,7% - 40 EKRE 16,2% - 17 Center 15,6% - 16 Pro Patria 12,4% - 13 SDE 11,1% - 11 E200 5,0% - 4 Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 02:36:28 PM ERR.ee has preliminary results by district: https://news.err.ee/916323/updated-live-preliminary-results-by-party-district-mandates-candidates.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 02:43:14 PM 235 polling stations out of 451 in, and E200 now below the threshold. EKRE still performing strongly, going to do better than the 17% expected in the poll of polls. Isamaa doing pretty well too:
Reform 34.1%, EKRE 16.6%, Center 16%, Isamaa 12.4%, SDE 11%, E200 4.9%. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 02:45:51 PM Center have now overtaken EKRE.
Turnout was 63.1% (-1.1%). Disappointing. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on March 03, 2019, 02:48:02 PM Not a lot of election day polling places counted in Tallinn yet, so Centre Party should get a decent boost from there.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: FredLindq on March 03, 2019, 03:01:50 PM 298 out off 451 districts counted
Reform 32,3% - 38 Center 17,9% - 20 EKRE17,3% - 19 Pro Patria 12,1% - 13 SDE 10,7% - 11 E200 4,9% - 0 Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 03:09:46 PM 329/451 in, Center now really starting to gain steam. EKRE not gaining as much anymore, so perhaps the 30 or so polling stations that just came in were from Tallinn.
Reform 31.5%, Center 19.2%, EKRE 17.4%, Isamaa 11.9%, SDE 10.5%, E200 4.8% Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on March 03, 2019, 03:17:17 PM Nothing election day counted in Tartu yet. Normally a Reform stronghold, so even though their e-vote share is very high, they should also gain a good bit of election day votes from there. Also should get a fair few from the Constituency around Tallinn.
Also around 50 polling places left to count election day votes in Talinn, so plenty of Centre votes there. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on March 03, 2019, 03:20:40 PM Every interview by Anna Pihl at the Isamaa party reminds me of the famous Danish TV cop
() Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 03:21:43 PM Still a lot of polling stations in Tallinn, but also to the Southwest of Tallinn where Reform and EKRE are doing very well. Thinking Center will end up in the low-mid 20s, Reform in the high 20s and EKRE around 18%.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: PetrSokol on March 03, 2019, 03:22:41 PM Doesnt it seem that Centre cant catch Reform. I counted about 400 k votes in and the last time it was 577 k. Now is the difference R vs. K 50 k....
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: FredLindq on March 03, 2019, 03:25:50 PM 363 out off 451 districts counted
Reform 30,7% - 36 Center 20,2% - 23 EKRE 17,5% - 19 Pro Patria 11,8% - 12 SDE 10,4% - 11 E200 4,7% - 0 Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on March 03, 2019, 03:25:59 PM Comparing to 2015 number of votes:
10 639 votes left in Tallinn 1 28 878 votes left in Talinn 2 13 926 votes left in Tallinn 3 So around 53.443 votes left. And Centre gets what, half of them? Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 03:26:19 PM The southwest has flipped from Reform to EKRE.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on March 03, 2019, 03:32:53 PM For the other constituencies, compared to 2015
Around Tallinn 10 336 votes Western Islands 4 083 votes Lääne-Viru 1 258 votes North East 8 305 votes Järva- and Viljandimaa 3 621 votes Around Tartu 3 600 votes Tartu 24 176 votes South-East 7 342 votes South-West 84 votes Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 03:35:07 PM Comparing to 2015 number of votes: 10 639 votes left in Tallinn 1 28 878 votes left in Talinn 2 13 926 votes left in Tallinn 3 So around 53.443 votes left. And Centre gets what, half of them? 43% Center, 22% Reform in Tallinn 2. 30% Reform, 24% Center in Tallinn 3. But that includes early votes (not sure if it includes internet votes though), so yes, Center should still gain quite a lot. Maybe enough to get to their 2015 result, but I don't think so. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on March 03, 2019, 03:38:44 PM I can't see election results at polling place level, but unless turnout is way down, more than 8 000 votes lleft in North-East, so perhaps Narva or somewhere like that, where I guess Centre will get 75-80% of election day vote?
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 03:38:57 PM Isamaa are doing pretty well, so most of the EKRE vote seems to come from the Free Party and... SDE?
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: FredLindq on March 03, 2019, 03:39:31 PM I would say that the most interesting issue now is if the current centre left coalition EK+I+SDE gets a majority (51 seats). With 386 out off 451 districts counted they have 46.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on March 03, 2019, 03:40:35 PM Tartu and Tallinn surroundings should count the other way for the Centre Party, and still plenty left in the former in particular, so yeah it's not certain the 2015 result can be reached
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 03:40:43 PM I can't see election results at polling place level, but unless turnout is way down, more than 8 000 votes lleft in North-East, so perhaps Narva or somewhere like that, where I guess Centre will get 75-80% of election day vote? Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 03:47:24 PM 399/451
Reform 30%, Center 21.3%, EKRE 17.7%, Isamaa 11.6%, SDE 10.2%, E200 4.6% Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: bigic on March 03, 2019, 03:51:26 PM 405/451. Reform now below 30%. Although I think that Reform will be the only party that could lead a coalition, as it doesn't look that the current government coalition will retain the majority, and the only other option that Centre has is a grand coalition with Reform.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 03:53:37 PM At this pace Center definitely aren't reaching their 24.8% from 2015. They're going up by 0.2% every five polling stations or so. With about 45 polling stations left they'd be around 23.5%.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: FredLindq on March 03, 2019, 03:54:52 PM Right now EKRE is up 9,6% and I down 2,1% and EVA (Estonian Free Party) down 7,5%....
So EKREs gains mainly comes from EVA and some parts from I. SDE is down 5,0% and E200 gets 4,6%. So I would say that SDE lost their votes to E200. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: bigic on March 03, 2019, 03:59:04 PM It certainly isn't as simple as it seems, which is proved by many voter movement surveys.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 04:04:29 PM The southeastern electoral district now flipped to EKRE-blue too. It was expected to the first district to go EKRE. But with a difference of four votes between EKRE and Reform and two polling stations left to be counted, this remains a nailbiter.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on March 03, 2019, 04:10:44 PM I can't see election results at polling place level, but unless turnout is way down, more than 8 000 votes lleft in North-East, so perhaps Narva or somewhere like that, where I guess Centre will get 75-80% of election day vote? Now fully counted. Centre Party on 13 707, down massively from 20 328 votes in 2015. From 59.0% to 47.9% combined with a lower turnout. I have heard Narva a few times mentioned on the stream. I don't know if there are any specific issue, or maybe just being in government means Centre can't be as pro-Russian as wished? Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: bigic on March 03, 2019, 04:16:02 PM There is a pro-Russian "Estonian United Left Party" and they didn't profit at all, so most of the voters disappointed with Centre went into abstention.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 04:21:48 PM Also worth noting that because of Center's underperformance (and SDE's loss, which is actually bigger), the current coalition will almost certainly lose its majority: they are at 47 now. Good for Reform's position in negotiations, as there is no plausible path to a coalition for Center that does not involve Reform now.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 04:30:35 PM 428/451
Reform 29.4%, Center 22.2%, EKRE 17.7%, Isamaa 11.5%, SDE 10%, E200 4.6% 14 of the outstanding precincts are in areas where Center can't be expected to do well and where Reform/EKRE will do well instead, so I think this is about it. Big win for Reform, who have just reiterated their unwillingness to negotiate with the other big winner, EKRE. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on March 03, 2019, 04:31:25 PM So it seems like a general pattern for the Centre Party. A bit to some progress in many places (as they become a more normal, respectable party for those with Estonia ethnicity), but losing some to many votes in their key areas in Tallinn and Ida-Viru among those with Russian ethnicity.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on March 03, 2019, 04:36:02 PM Some of the SDE casualties, according to ERR."As things stand at present, both speaker of the Riigikogu Eiki Nestor, and culture minister Indrek Saar, both of SDE, will not be returned to parliament."
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 04:39:05 PM Had to laugh at that person Nestor being the longest sitting MP. What's in a name?
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: mgop on March 03, 2019, 04:39:16 PM either way prime minister will be from centre party, they can choose who they want for coalition
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: bigic on March 03, 2019, 04:40:21 PM either way prime minister will be from Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: mgop on March 03, 2019, 04:41:21 PM either way prime minister will be from KESKERAKOND! Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 04:41:47 PM either way prime minister will be from KESKERAKOND! Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on March 03, 2019, 04:42:44 PM Kristina Šmigun-Vähi, the first Estonian woman to win a medal at the Winter Olympics with two golds in cross-country skiing, will likely enter parliament for the Reform Party
() Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 04:46:38 PM With 435 precincts in, one seat has shifted from Reform to EKRE: Reform at 34, EKRE at 20 now.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 04:49:08 PM Prime Minister Jüri Ratas (Center) says that his party will "do its utmost" to be part of the next coalition.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 04:52:07 PM Remaining precincts:
6 in Tallinn 4 in the Reform stronghold outside Tallinn 2 in the part of the Southeast where EKRE are leading Reform by 4 votes 2 in Tartu City 1 in Tartu County 1 in the part of the Northeast where Center don't do well Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: bigic on March 03, 2019, 04:53:39 PM Ratas has 2 options - a grand coalition with Reform (likely) or a coalition including EKRE (very unlikely, and probably excluded by Centre)
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 04:54:46 PM Ratas has 2 options - a grand coalition with Reform (likely) or a coalition including EKRE (very unlikely, and probably excluded by Centre) Ratas does have two options: a grand coalition with Reform or the opposition. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 04:58:51 PM Three of Tallinn's precincts have come in and EKRE's 20th seat has now become Center's 26th, leaving them only one seat down from 2015 at 22.7%. Wonder whether Reform, EKRE or Center will ultimately get it. I think it will be Reform or EKRE given the outstanding precincts.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 05:07:23 PM EKRE leader Mart Helme now talking about Center-EKRE-Isamaa, who would have a comfortable majority. Hard to see how that would not be suicide for both Center and EKRE. The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact wasn't a success, guys... and you should know!
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 03, 2019, 05:36:24 PM Everything is in.
Reform 28.8% (+1.1%) - 34 seats (+4) Center 23% (-1.7%) - 26 seats (-1) EKRE 17.8% (+9.7%) - 19 seats (+12) Pro Patria 11.4% (-2.3%) - 12 seats (-2) SDE 9.8% (-5.4%) - 10 seats (-5) EE200 4.5% (new) - 0 seats Greens 1.8% (+0.9%) - 0 seats Richness of Life 1.2% (new) Free Party 1.2% (-7.5%) 0 seats (-8 seats) - No center-left majority anymore, Reform (who seem to have a very effective vote distribution, gaining 4 seats with only +1.1%) hold the balance of power. Strong result for Reform, Isamaa and especially EKRE: good. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Ethelberth on March 04, 2019, 02:32:39 AM In which universe Estonia had left wing majority.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 04, 2019, 07:45:40 AM Ruuben Kaalep, the leader of EKRE's alt-right youth organization Blue Awakening which was expelled from the ECR youth organization, was elected in Tartu City with 566 votes. Another EKRE candidate, Indrek Särg, received 2,221 votes in the same district but was not elected due to his lower position on the EKRE list and is angry about this. Kaalep says he agrees but "seeks to change the electoral system from within parliament" and does not give up his seat.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: FredLindq on March 05, 2019, 11:43:33 AM https://news.postimees.ee/6537206/kaja-kallas-our-first-choice-is-a-government-with-isamaa-and-sde
Kaja Kallas: "our first choice is a government with Isamaa and SDE" Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on March 05, 2019, 11:48:42 AM https://news.postimees.ee/6537206/kaja-kallas-our-first-choice-is-a-government-with-isamaa-and-sde Kaja Kallas: "our first choice is a government with Isamaa and SDE" the reasonable and most likely option given SDE's support of center right governments in the past. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on March 05, 2019, 12:04:06 PM and as I always do, if it was a fully national proportional system instead of constituency proportional.
+ and - Compared to actual result Reform: 29 (-5) Centre: 23 (-3) Conservative People's: 18 (-1) Pro Patria: 12 (+/- 0) Social Democrats: 10 (+/- 0) Estonia 200: 5 (+5) Greens: 2 (+2) Richness of Life: 1 (+1) Estonian Free Party: 1 (+1) Incoming Government (K-I-SDE): 45, 6 short of majority Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: bigic on March 06, 2019, 08:45:22 AM Reform Party chose to begin talks with the Centre Party.
https://news.err.ee/917068/reform-to-begin-coalition-talks-with-centre-party Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on March 09, 2019, 05:44:25 AM Centre rejects Reform's offer to begin coalition talks
"The board of the Centre Party, which was the first runner-up in the 2019 Riigikogu election and received an invitation on Wednesday from the election-winning Reform Party, opted to turn down the offer. Addressing the press following the board's meeting on Friday, Centre chairman and outgoing Prime Minister Jüri Ratas said that it was differences of opinion when it came to tax matters that ended up being the red line. Mr Ratas said that under such conditions, the Centre Party could not launch coalition talks with Reform.Kadri Simson added that the conditions set by the Reform Party were too ultimatum-like. "We received input that it would only be possible to enter talks [with them] only if the resulting government were to begin implementing the Reform Party's programme," she added. According to Jaanus Karilaid, Reform's planned tax reform would not allow for Centre's planned extraordinary pension hike." Kallas: Reform to approach Isamaa, Social Democrats next "Following the rejection of the Centre Party, the first runner-up in the 2019 Riigikogu election, of the election-winning Reform Party's invitation to launch coalition talks, the board of the Reform Party decided on Friday to approach the Social Democratic Party (SDE) and Isamaa next. "The board of our party decided to propose launching coalition talks with the Social Democrats and Isamaa," Ms Kallas said, addressing the press following the Reform Party board meeting on Friday afternoon. "Just as I told [Centre chairman] Jüri Ratas, this cooperation would be on equal terms between equal partners, and it is our good will to form a functioning government for Estonia that could solve the challenges facing Estonia and offer people a better future." https://news.err.ee/918142/centre-rejects-reform-s-offer-to-begin-coalition-talks https://news.err.ee/918169/kallas-reform-to-approach-isamaa-social-democrats-next Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: bigic on March 11, 2019, 06:12:51 AM Not exactly expected
https://news.err.ee/918712/centre-board-announces-decision-to-begin-coalition-talks-with-isamaa-ekre Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on March 11, 2019, 11:39:50 AM EKRE and Isamaa have approved. Coalition talks will start.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan on March 12, 2019, 04:10:04 AM I wonder how EKRE voters will react on cooperating with main political arm of Russian minority in Estonia? Question of russian language in education probably will be some major obstacle in coalition talks.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: bigic on March 12, 2019, 04:59:16 AM Raimond Kaljulaid resigns from the Centre Party's board - he is one of four members who voted against talks with EKRE. https://news.err.ee/918972/raimond-kaljulaid-quits-centre-board-over-party-talks-with-ekre Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on March 15, 2019, 09:35:38 AM Kantar Emor poll for Postimees suggests that Centre and Isamaa voters are not that happy with the proposed coalition with EKRE, particularly the Russian Centre voters.
Among all voters, Reform-Isamaa-SDE is on 30%, Reform-Centre on 29% and Centre-EKRE-Isamaa on 24%. EKRE voters of course massively support the latter, but the newspaper write that Centre and Isamaa voters prefer the other option with them in without stipulating the exact shares. Citizens of other nationalities clearly prefer a coalition between Center and Reform (44 percent), wile only 8 percent of non-Estonian-speakers support a Center-EKRE-Isamaa union. Centre falls from 23 to 19 %, and is down from 67% to 48.9% support among Russian-speakers. These voters mainly seem to go to SDE and Estonia 200. The latter is at 7.3% in this poll, i.e. above the threshold. ERR report that Centre, EKRE and Isamaa have reached agreement on culture, sport and youth work in a potential coalition. I guess those are probably not the most controversial areas, but it shows progress and puts pressure on Reform. https://news.postimees.ee/6545414/poll-voters-prefer-other-coalitions https://news.err.ee/920493/centre-isamaa-ekre-reach-agreement-on-sports-culture-youth-work Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on March 19, 2019, 03:46:14 AM Toom: Centre vote on EKRE, Isamaa talks first that ran along ethnic lines
The Centre MEP Yana Toom says that the vote to start negotiations with EKRE and Isamaa in the party board was the first to run along ethic lines with the "Russian wing" being voted down. "[EKRE] isn't a party I would want to be with in a coalition," Ms Toom said. "That's just how it is. I don't think that the voters would forgive me if I did." She added that if this comes up again in a board meeting, she will likely vote against such a coalition. "Perhaps we've got a miracle in store and Helme and Seeder suddenly say that there won't be a changeover to 100% Estonian-speaking education, and that everyone with a grey passport will be made a citizen," she joked. "Then I'd tell myself, okay Toom, perhaps this is a deal with the devil, but at least we get a few things done we've been fighting for." https://news.err.ee/920779/toom-centre-vote-on-ekre-isamaa-talks-first-that-ran-along-ethnic-lines Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Diouf on March 27, 2019, 12:17:56 PM Kaja Kallas says she's willing to give up PM spot to form coalition with the Centre Party. However, former Prime Minister and current EU Commissioner Andrus Ansip said that such a move would be illogical, and that the Reform party should instead be willing to compromise on their proposal to make €500 a month tax free for everyone. This was one of Kallas' ultimate demands, and one reason why the Centre Party left negotiations, but Ansip says that it's too expensive and an obvious place to give way.
https://news.err.ee/923938/kallas-would-consider-leaving-position-of-prime-minister-to-ratas https://news.err.ee/923991/ansip-wouldn-t-offer-ratas-prime-minister-but-compromise-on-tax-instead Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: bigic on April 04, 2019, 01:01:20 PM https://news.err.ee/926616/polluaas-seeder-kallas-elected-riigikogu-president-vice-presidents
55 votes for the proposed coalition's candidates for president and first vice-president of the parlament. The three parties (Centre, EKRE, Isamaa) have 57 MPs between them - one of them abstained and one of them voted with the opposition. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on April 06, 2019, 07:06:04 AM The coalition agreement should be presented today and someone in EKRE will chair parliament. What an unlikely (yet great) outcome of the election this is.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Ex-Assemblyman Steelers on April 08, 2019, 01:08:15 PM https://news.err.ee/927689/gallery-centre-ekre-isamaa-coalition-deal-signed-into-being
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: DavidB. on April 08, 2019, 01:15:44 PM Apparently Reform officially still get to attempt to form a coalition now, which is utterly pointless because Center, EKRE and Isamaa simply have a majority and Reform (therefore) won't get one.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Ex-Assemblyman Steelers on April 08, 2019, 04:38:59 PM They had only 44 I think, and Centre coalition 59 votes. So, I think it's pretty clear who will be in power.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: bigic on April 09, 2019, 03:14:04 AM Actually it's 56 for the Centre EKRE Isamaa coalition after departure of one Centre rebel Raimond Kaljulaid. Reform and SDE have 44 seats, and Raimond will probably support them - their candidates for the leadership of the Parliament got 45 votes.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: kelestian on April 09, 2019, 04:13:27 AM what about russian schools, which position prevailed in coalition agreement?
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Tender Branson on April 17, 2019, 02:54:12 PM Reform and Kallas have failed with their minority government attempt ...
Centre + EKRE + Isamaa are now in charge, after receiving majority approval in parliament. Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: rob in cal on May 01, 2019, 11:27:21 AM The new coalition government is intriguing in that it includes EKRE with its ethnic Estonian nationalism and the Centre with its support in the ethnic Russian community. I wonder if its a case of EKRE thinking these Slavic Estonians aren't so bad after all compared to all these non-European potential migrants. In the 1990's wasn't the Austrian FPO against eastern Europeans coming into Austria, and now they don't seem as against them as they were since they are still European.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: rob in cal on May 01, 2019, 04:04:53 PM Also read that EKRE wants Swiss style direct democracy reforms. Seems a common trend among right wing populist parties to support this, which makes sense as they would probably have a better chance of getting more parts of their agenda through with direct referenda on some issues.
Title: Re: Estonian Parliamentary Election, 3rd March 2019 Post by: Colbert on October 17, 2021, 09:00:36 AM No thread about the municipal election ?
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