Talk Elections

The trial of the Catalan separatist leaders began today and tomorrow the budget plan of the Pedro Sánchez government is likely to be rejected. Recently the talks between central government and the Catalan administration were broken and the right wing parties called a mass rally in Madrid in the wake of a political storm. These events mark the end of the legislative period. Rumours point to general elections in April (either 14 or 28) and the May 26 'Super Sunday' is still a possibility.

The old Spanish elections and politics thread has reached 93 pages and I think it's time to start a new one.

El País: "Impassioned opening arguments at Catalan separatists’ trial in Madrid"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/12/inenglish/1549985125_369586.html


TV3/Catalunya Radio: "The keys of the Catalan independence trial" (link provided by tack 50)

https://www.ccma.cat/324/keys-catalan-independence-trial/

I'll repost a couple of general election maps. They show results by province (Congress of Deputies) with circles representing the most populous municipalities

2015 general election

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2016 general election

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Election call tomorrow for April 14 or 28. (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-politics-election/spanish-pm-to-announce-snap-election-soon-after-budget-vote-sources-idUSKCN1Q1287)

Will the Senate be up for election in a snap election?  I can see PSOE doing well in the Senate election at least even if PP+C+VOX majority seems likely in the Lower House.

  So no plans to consolidate the vote with European elections in May?

That might be the target after all if Rivera finds his marbles and blocks the tripartite Right coalition.

On that subject, how do C's maintain their Catalan electorate in particular if they ally with Vox. Loads of them are ex-PSOE and/or from immigrant background. It makes little sense.

In theory not necesarily, Sanchez could legally call an election only for Congress.

In practice, it would certainly be for both, there is no reason to separate them.

And yes I also could see PSOE doing well in the Senate. Worth noting that article 155 (direct rule) is paseed by the Senate and not Congress so theoretically PSOE coule block it if PP/Cs/Vox attempt to pass it


It's unclear, another possible date is the 26th of May alongside the EU (and local) elections.

However most of the PSOE leadership don't want this in order not to contaminate their local campaigns with national issues

Edit: Blatantly hijacking this post in the first page several months later to add a link to the previous thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=205125.0

Maybe others can chime in here, but I get the feeling that the C's hierarchy of governments is:

Anything with C's leading
PP+C's
PSOE+C's
PP+C's+VOX







Anything with Podemos(or Podemos allies) or separatists

We didn't really get to see any theoretical government besides the PP+C's+VOX in Andalusia, but I suspect that was because of Mathematical reasons over anything else. With that in mind, the C's decision process post election is probably going to depend on math rather then anything else. Who will have the numbers: PSOE, or PP+VOX?

So they can sell this to their Catalan electorate by saying  "it was the mathematical option, PSOE+C's lacked majority." If PSOE+C's has a majority, then A C's red line will be a Harsh Catalan policy. This satisfies both sides of their Catalan coalition - the hard Spanish nats and the former PSOEs. If not, then they can say "PSOE won't do whats right for Spain and Catalonia, so we went with PP+VOX."

The government is headed for defeat in Congress over 2019 budget

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/13/inenglish/1550045962_704191.html


The finance minister performed well yesterday against the right wing opposition and the Catalan separatists. Talking in socio-economic terms, the budget includes a rise in the minimum wage to 900 Euros and more investment in Catalonia (the region has a deficit in transport infrastructure, among other things). Also, strategic reasons would have made advisable that Catalan nationalists support the budget plan. However, they are at odds with strategy.

The trial left a meaningful picture showing the division within the independence movement.

Catalan premier Quim Torra greets the defendants. Most of them turn their heads, except ERC leader Oriol Junqueras and former regional ministers Santi Vila (formerly PDeCAT) and Carles Mundó (ERC). The expression of Junqueras (down right in the picture) and Vila (in front of the woman in red) is very eloquent.

The political debate is totally focused in Catalonia. The national and the international context favour the Triple Alliance.

Celeste-Tel poll for eldiario.es

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/constante-Vox-mantiene-derechas-opciones_0_867213569.html

PSOE 23.7%
PP 23.1%
Cs 19.2%
UP and allies 15.8%
VOX 8.9%
ERC 2.8%
PDeCAT 1.7%
EAJ-PNV 1.2%

Correlation similar to Andalusia. Right wing majority (PP, Cs and VOX). I'd bet that VOX is a couple of percentage points higher at the expense of PP.
 

Spanish Parliament Blocks 2019 Budget Bill

This question has no easy answer, because vote dynamics in Catalonia are extremely complex. The electoral behaviour of the non-nationalist half of Catalonia is particularly volatile. The Catalan electorate votes in different ways, depending on the type of election. Cs performed very strongly in the 2015 and 2017 regional elections, getting 17.9% and 25.3% of the vote (second and first place, respectively). However, the Cs performance in the 2015 and 2016 general elections was somewhat disappointing: 13% in 2015 (5th place) and 10.9% in 2016 (6th). The leading coalition in both general elections was En Comú Podem. Most of the ECP support came from the metropolitan strongholds traditionally voting for the socialists, but it's very likely that ECP caught some nationalist vote as well. Most of the Cs support in regional elections came from the same metropolitan municipalities, as well it caught many PP voters (Cs performance in some affluent neighbourhoods in Barcelona was quite impressive). On the other hand, the VOX rise might hurt Cs to some extent. Catalonia is not the best place for VOX on paper, but I heard there are some polls saying that VOX might step into the city hall winning some councilors in Barcelona...

https://twitter.com/abc_es/status/1096119204560977925?s=19

That's tomorrow. I'm excited.

Everybody is saying that elections will be on April 28.

Pedro Sánchez will make an announcement tomorrow morning (10:00 CET)

I assume the argument for April 28 elections vs in May is to force C to show its hand.  If C ends up backing a government in alliance with VOX that could drive some C-PSOE marginal voters to swing over to PSOE.  To have the the elections the same time as EU and local elections will not give PSOE this possible advantage in local elections.

A Cs spokesman has said already that deals with Pedro Sánchez are not on the table.  Oranges claim that Sánchez is a radical who has betrayed the country. It's the same mantra of Casado: Sánchez is sold to populists, separatists and friends of ETA. It's a complete nonsense, but right wing voters buy this message. Moderate and centrist voters could be different. It's clear that PP, Cs and VOX will arrange a government deal if they have the numbers. The socialists will try to exploit the picture of Casado (PP),  Rivera (Cs) and Abascal (VOX) together in the Colón square past Sunday. That's what I call the (reactionary) Triple Alliance. Once the government broke talks with separatists, socialists hope to mobilize voters contrary or reluctant over talks policy as well as moderate voters fearful of the VOX radicalism.

Anyway I think it's not going to be easy to mobilize left wing voters, on the fear of the Triple Alliance, and reverse the right wing drive. The electoral behaviour of left wing voters is different from the right wing ones. They need some illusion and a strong motivation to turn out in great numbers, while the right eing voters are more practical (their aim is to preserve the status quo). Right now average polling is PSOE 24%, PP 21%, Cs 18%, UP 15%, VOX 11%

That's politiking: C's realize that VOX is a danger to the third leg of the weird coalition of Macron-style Liberals, Classical Liberals, and Hard-Right Nationalists. I suspect they might be singing a different tune if C's and PSOE have the numbers (they don't right now) and Sanchez offers a big compromise to C's like Article 155.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/02/15/actualidad/1550216540_890788.html

Pedri Sanchez has finally called the election for the 28th of April

Cs secretary general José Manuel Villegas was crystal clear yesterday: they won't make deals with the PSOE until Pedro Sánchez is replaced in leadership. Also, the visions of PSOE and Cs on the Catalan crisis are radically opposed: PSOE favours dialogue without concessions on self-determination, Cs seeks the implementation of a "harsh 155" in total coincidence with the PP (VOX would send the tanks too, I suspect). It's true that certain socialist 'barons' (regional leaders) have more coincidences with Cs and PP on Catalonia (recently there was a proclamation in the Extremadura regional assembly), but they are not all the PSOE and the leader is Sánchez.  Additionally the tone of Albert Rivera has been very harsh with Pedro Sánchez since the no confidence motion. I suspect there is some personal hatred. Rivera is very ambitious (Sánchez too) and possibly he saw himself as the saviour of Spain after replacing Mariano Rajoy as PM. The bold move of Pedro Sánchez in late May disrupted his dreams of glory. On the other hand, Rivera is not Macron.

Worth noting that today 3 "new" parties announced their intention to run alone and not in coalitions:

-New Canaries (NCa). A centre-left Canarian nationalist party. Strong in the eastern province of Las Palmas but weak in the western province of Santa Cruz de Tenerife. They contested the 2016 election alongside PSOE and got 1 senator and 1 MP. While that Senator is pretty much gone, they should be able to hold their MP, but it will be close.

-Regionalist Party of Cantabria (PRC): A centrist, progressive and somewhat populist Cantabria regionalist party, led by Premier Miguel Ángel Revilla. They rarely contest national elections but apparently this time they will. They should be able to easily get 1 seat, but nothing else.

-Actúa: : An IU splinter mostly; led by former IU leader Gaspar Llamazares and former judge Baltasar Garzón. Unlike the other 2, this one seems unlikely to get any seats but we shall see.

All 3 are very good parties in my (biased) opinion, but we shall see.

Pedro Sánchez calls snap election for April 28

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/15/inenglish/1550218263_541173.html


ERC leader and former deputy premier Oriol Junqueras claims to be a political prisoner

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/14/inenglish/1550154512_860484.html


Oriol Junqueras procalimed his love for Spain and for the Spanish peoples and culture. He also stated to be happy to speak in Spanish in the trial, because it gave him the opportunity to be heard by all Spaniards. Defendants were given the possibility to speak in Catalan, although there is no simultaneous translation and testimonies would be translated afterwards.

A key factor in the trial is to determine wether violence was employed or encouraged by independence leaders, because violence is an essential requirement to be found guilty of rebellion. The maximum penalty for rebellion is 25 years, much higher than the penalty for disobedience.


Joaquim Forn took the stand afterwards. Forn was the member of the Catalan government in charge of regional police (the equivalent of the Interior minister). He took questions from the public prosecutor and provided documentation showing the orders he gave to the Mossos de Esquadra (regional police) on October 1, 2017 (the date of the informal referendum). I'd say this strategy of defence was more effective than the previous political speech of Junqueras. The presiding judge Manuel Marchena rebuked th prosecutor's insistence to repeat the same questions to Joaquim Forn, in order to get the desired answer. Furthermore, judge Marchena didn't allow the Vox lawyers who reoresent the private prosecution to make their questions, once the defendants refused to take them. Marchena is regarded as a conservative leaning judge, as well as a smart one. Marchena is showing very scrupulous with procedural guarantees, because he is fully aware this trial is getting a lot of attention worldwide. Also, the defences have stated the will appeal before the Strasbourg Court in case their defendants are not acquitted of all charges. It is very important for the court to ensure the due process guarantees.

Sorry, but I don't think that New Canaries or the Cantabria regionalists have many chances of winning seats. These parties perform much better in regional elections.

PRC ran unsuccessfully in the 2011 general elections, getting 12.5% (around 44k votes). That time the Cantabria Regionalist Party came close, but this time there is a lot of competence. PP, PSOE, Cs, Podemos and Vox will be running too and the province only has 5 seats.

The results of NC in Las Palmas province, either running in its own or in a joint list with the Canary Coalition (CC), have been rather poor in previous elections. NC (in coalition with CCN) got 7.5% in 2008 and no seats, while the NC-CC-PNC joint list got 11.3% in 2011 and 1 seat. Unless NC runs with CC again, the chances are slim because regionalist vote will be splitted.

I concur the electoral chances of Actúa are virtually zero. The party of Gaspar Llamazares and Baltasar Garzón was rejected by Más Madrid at regional level. The platform led by Íñigo Errejón seeks to ally with Podemos, IU and Equo. Llamazares has been always hostile to Podemos and he is a figure of the past, with little electoral appeal outside his Asturias home turf.

Despite the great fragmentation of the electoral space, Spain faces the next election confronted to a binary choice: the Left or the Triple Alliance. The crisis in Podemos and the breaking of the alliance with the Catalan nationalists have weakened the block led by Pedro Sánchez, despite the PSOE is leading in the polls. On the opposite side, the triple alliance (PP, Cs and VOX) has many chances of winning a majority according to the polls. Cs leader Albert Rivera rejects categorically an alliance with Pedro Sánchez (he says the PSOE is not constitutionalist, while remains in silence when asked about Vox) and deliberately opts for the right wing alliance that governs in Andalusia with the support of the far right. Pedro Sánchez started campaigning yesterday placing himself in front of the right wing alliance of Colón Square. In the picture below you can spot Santiago Abascal (Vox), Pablo Casado (PP) and Albert Rivera (Cs)


NYT: "Yet Another Election for Spain Reveals Deeper Strains"

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/15/world/europe/spain-snap-election.html


Evolution of the vote since the 1977 elections

I'm a lot more optimistic about those 2.

Because of how D'Hondt works, PRC would need to come in 5th at worst, and get more than half of what the 1st place finisher gets. That's probably somewhere around 13-15% (depending on how much you think PP will fall), which doesn't seem unreachable to me. Revilla is popular and he has a legit shot. His seat would probably come off Podemos' seat. (1-1-1-1-1 split)

Similarly, NC managed to get 7% in 2008; back when they were a lot less popular (at the time they didn't even have regional representation, falling below the threshold in the 2007 regionals!).

I could see NC getting 10% and 1 seat. Pedro Quevedo has also been a high profile MP for the most part. CC is small enough to ignore; they got 3% and I imagine at least a handful of those might move to NC if they have a chance (while CC doesn't).

GESOP / El Periódico de Catalunya

PSOE 27.4% 115-117 seats
PP 19.9% 75-77 seats
CS 14.5% 44-47 seats
UP 13.6% 36-39 seats
VOX 13% 43-46 seats

ERC 16-17 seats
PDeCAT 2-3 seats
Others 8-10 seats

lol cs 14.5% that poll is manipulated

There was another poll today which seems to be a lot more reasonable than the GESOP one

GAD3 for La Vanguardia

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There will probably be a third one published, this time by Sociométrica-El Español

Interesting how C's+PSOE has a majority here, but the Right wing Triumvirate doesn't despite having a higher combined vote-share then C's+PSOE. This basis appears to be built on VOX a horrible vote/seat ratio, worse then even C's during their peak last winter. I guess we really have no idea how the VOX vote will be distributed in this regard, with the obvious exception being high voteshares in the exclaves.

I don't think the GESOP poll is unreasonable. It's assuming that VOX is eroding the PP and the Cs base in a greater extent than the GAD3 poll does. Given that VOX is setting the agenda of the other two right wing parties, it's plausible. It's worth noting that GESOP predicts the ERC hegemony in the Catalan nationalism, at the expense of the total collapse of the PDeCAT. I think both pollsters are interpreting vote transfers within blocks (left, triunvirate and separatists) in a different way.

The seat allocation is not easy to estimate, but there are models that provide an approximate result. It's important to remark the seat allocation is not based on nationwide results, rather it's based on the addition of the results in the 52 districts (50 multi-member corresponding to provinces; 2 single-member corresponding to autonomous cities). We actually have 52 general elections in Spain (one for every district, in Congress and Senate).

I think these polls show that there's a little ray of light for Pedro Sánchez, thanks to the particular nature of our electoral system. Most of the provincial electoral districts have less than seven seats. The parties placed first and second have a bonus in seat allocation, while third parties below 15% have a bad vote/seat ratio. In case the PSOE manages to come in first place with a result not far from 30% and 120 seats, I think it's pissible to avert a majority for the Triple Alliance. We have the precedent of the 2015 elections, with the PP coming first (28.7%, 123 seats) and the left wing parties winning less seats than PP and Cs, despite their higher combined vote share.

The majority suppprting the no confidence motion against Rajoy could not be replicated, according to the last poll. However, it'd be interesting to see how Albert Rivera would act in a scenario in which PSOE and Cs have the numbers and the Holy Trinity falls short of a majority, given that he and other Cs spokepersons say they'll never support the 'traitor' Sánchez.

Oh I understand how seats are allocated in Spain, that's why I mentioned the awful Vote/seat ratio, and compared it to C's's surgee. Back then, C's wasn't polling a full 'slate' of seats on it's vote/seat ratio - the surge votes were coming more from strongholds rather then evenly dispersed.

Pedro Sánchez is already in campaign mode. He called to mobilization in a crowded act taking place this morning in Mérida, alongside with the Extremadura premier Guillermo Fernández Vara. The PSOE leader appealed to progressives and centrists. "The threat exists, we are seeing it in Europe and other parts of the world" said Sánchez in reference to the far right rise in Europe and the Bolsonaro takeover in Brazil. Other messages conveyed by Sánchez: conquering the future instead of going backwards; moderation, progress, common sense and dialogue against the aggressive nationalism of the Spanish Right* and the demands of the Catalan separatists. Yesterday Pedro Sánchez attended a campaign act in Seville, alongside with Susana Díaz. He focused on employment and social advancements.

* _{There is a testosterone overload that affects the leaders of the "triphallic right", according to Justice minister Dolores Delgado. She meant that the Spanish Right has three heads ("Tricéfala"), but her lapsus has provoked some jokes ;D}

 In the cabinet meeting held on Friday the government finally approved the exhumation of the Franco's remains:

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/15/inenglish/1550228747_208145.html


The following piece explains which policies will have to be shelved as a general election is called

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/15/inenglish/1550228667_985380.html


Also, Pedro Sánchez released his "Survival Manual". He reveals some details on how the no confidence motion was forged. This is another campaign act, of course.

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The political correspondent of El País Carlos E Cué wrote a good story back in the day

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/04/inenglish/1528097589_351691.html




 

Hmm... It seems that there's some kind of trend towards PSOE and PP. PSOE numbers are going up because, probably, of the implosion of Podemos and PP seems to be gaining some voters from C's. Sociométrica poll is the only, of the 3 released yesterday, that shows PP and C's tied for second place.

Could that photo of Rivera next to Abascal be hurting C's? Maybe some C's moderate voters didn't liked what they saw and are now returning to PP, and some, who knows, to PSOE.

There is an extreme volatility with sudden turns in public opinion, so we should be cautious with analyses and intetpretations. I think the only prediction that we can support right now is that PSOE, Cs and of course VOX will get better results, while PP and UP are bound to lose support. In the case of Cs, I think the picture in Colon Square and the government deal in Andalusia, which undeniably associate the oranges with the far right, are potentially harmful. At least the PSOE will try to take advantage of these developments to recover ground in the centre. The talks policy damaged PSOE in previous months (additionally the crisis in Catalonia exacerbates division within the party), as well the bad communication policy: the Calvo's blunder with the "mediator" was the origin of the political storm that ended in the Colon Square rally, a failed sttempt of the Spanish Right to bring Sánchez down with a massive demonstration. The attendance was around 50k, a clear underperformance. In addition the picture of the Triple Alliance gives ammunition to the PSOE. Some people say the failure of the Colon Square rally and that picture determined Pedro Sánchez and his inner circle to call elections in April. I think your assumption that moderate Cs voters may turn to PP over that picture doesn't make much sense, because Pablo Cssado is a hardcore conservative with stances close to VOX. The Santiago Abascal party was the only winner in Colón Square. On the ither hand, VOX is growing mainly at the expense of PP but also at the expense of Cs. The result of VOX within the rightwing block may determine if the Triple Alliance wins a majority or not

Interesting. When i say moderate C's voters coming back to PP, I mean former PP voters that were a bit turned off by the corruption scandals and all, and now are coming back to PP because C's seems to be just like PP. But, you're right, that maybe doesn't makes sense.

Interesting chronicle of the NYT correspondent Raphael Minder from El Ejido, the Andalusian stronghold of VOX. Minder is the author of a book entitled 'The Struggle for Catalonia'

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/16/world/europe/spain-elections-vox-far-right.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FSpain&action=click&contentCollection=world&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=collection


PP, Cs and VOX seek to differentiate their offer in order to catch all the vote right of the centre, says a chronicle in El País. The parties of the Triple Alliance have a total coincidence in what regards the implementation of direct rule in Catalonia (VOX goes further, advocating the suppression of all regional autonomy). Other headlines: "Casado whips out fear of chaos if the PP doesn't win". "Rivera encourages to bury the Two Spains (the "reds" and the "blues")". There's another article talking about the strategies to escape (or not) from the Colón Square picture. The Spanish Right seeks to transform that picture in government deals, while the Left seeks to use it to mobilize voters.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/02/16/actualidad/1550342351_459051.html

Another interesting headline in El Confidencial, a centre-right leaning digital paper: "Spain has no room to implement a great tax cut". Is this a message for the triumvirate (particularly for Pablo Casado)?

https://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2019-02-17/casado-promesa-bajada-impuestos-margen_1830074/

eldiario.es: "Podemos seeks to renew its alliances in the middle of a serious crisis to become a party of government"

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/Podemos-IU-aliados_0_868263923.html

Meanwhile Manuela Carmena and Íñigo Errejón launched their campaign in Madrid: the act was a big breakfast (handmade fairy cakes and chocolate) with 2000 supporters in a working class neighbourhood called Villaverde

https://www.eldiario.es/madrid/Carmena-Errejon-arrancan-campana-conjunta_0_868613262.html

The Minister of Public Works José Luis Ábalos was insulted by a semiretired policeman yesterday night in Mérida (Extremadura). The offender called "Rojo" ("Red") to Ábalos, so presumably the ideology of that man is "Blue" (or maybe "Vox Green").

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/02/17/5c69900321efa0be238b4662.html

  So what is the vote % crossover point for a party running throughout the country like Vox to win a seat share approximate to its vote share. Looks like right now its 8.8% in the last poll gets it about 4.5 % of the seats. This wastage alone might be enough to deny the PP, C, and Vox a majority.

Well, no one really knows, but the more the better. (Try to think of Spain's seat to vote ratio as exponential instead of linear)

Keep in mind that the vote-seats ratio is not only dependant on the party's results, but also in the results of everyone else.

A good example is that PSOE got 175 seats (exactly half) in 1989 with only 39.6% of the popular vote.

Meanwhile in 2008 PSOE got only 169 seats with 43.7% of the vote.

The reason for this is that in 1989 the opposition was quite divided, with the 2nd largest party being PP with 25.8% of the vote. Meanwhile in 2008 the opposition was also unified with PP getting 39.9% of the vote.

Which is one of PSOE's strengths right now - they are polling in the High 20s whereas everyone else is between 10 and low 20s. So there are going to be quite a few PSOE 'bonus' seats thanks to their nationwide appeal and lead on the pack. The previous La Vanguardia poll for example has them getting between 15 and 20 seats above the pure proportional result.

The threshold to have a good vote/seat ratio is estimated at 15%, but the increasing fragmentation makes it unclear. Also, the ratio may depend on which provinces a said party is stronger, given that seat allocation by province favours the less populated (the "empty Spain"). That's why some polls predict that PP could win more seats than Cs with a similar vote share. PP performs strongly in rural Spain and among the eldest, while it performs poorly among the youngest voters. Another feature of the system is that nationalist and regionalist parties use to have a better ratio than third parties nationwide, because peripheral parties have their vote concentrated in a few provinces.

2016 General Election (vote share/ % of seats)

PP (33% /39,1%), PSOE (22.6%/24.3%), UP (21.2%/20.3%), Cs (13.1%/9.1%)

ERC (2.6%/2.6%), CDC (2%/2.3%), EAJ-PNV (1.2%/1.4%), EH Bildu (0.8%/0.6%), CC (0.3%/0.3%)

Kiko Llaneras made an estimation for El País on the Vox effect over the rightwing seats, assuming the combined vote of the Triple Alliance is at 49% (percentage may oscillate depending on the mobilization of the left). It seems the rightwing majority is assured with Vox getting more than 11%. I'd take it with a grain of salt, because there are multiple variables. Mobilization is key

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/02/16/actualidad/1550336107_552865.html?rel=lom

Cs political bureau agrees unanimously not making deals with Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE after the general elections. By the moment this decision doesn't affect deals at regional and local level. Cs secretary general José Manuel Vilegas said that talking and making agreements with the separatists (the "coup plotters" in the vision of the Spanish Right) is one of the most serious and deplorable actions ever performed by a Spanish government. Cs leader Albert Rivera stated past Friday that Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE must go to the opposition. Rivera seeks the repetition of the coalition agreements in Andalusia, with the difference that he hopes to lead the government himself. Cs would be a "modern" and "liberal" alternative in Rivera's words, while the PP represents a "conservative" one somewhat tarnished by corruption. Rivera has no opinion of Vox, because that party has no seats in the Spanish parliament.

Loyal to his hyperbolic rhetoric style, PP leader Pablo Casado compares the current political situation of Spain with the situation after the death of Franco. Casado assures that separatists are ready to launch a second assault to the Spain's integrity with the PSOE's collusion.

The Vox campaign in Madrid targets low income municipalities with high proportion of immigrant population, which usually lean to the left

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2019/02/17/madrid/1550425964_576994.html

The GAD3 poll released by La Vanguardia provides a little ray of light. According to it, a majority of Spaniards favours dialogue as the way to solve the conflict in Catalonia. Talks between central and regional governments are supported by 52.3%, while 34.2% supports the implementation of direct rule in Catalonia (article 155). A poll conducted by GAD3 three months ago showed opposite results. The turn in public opinion is attributed either to the dragging effect of the government's discourse or to a reaction against inflated rhetoric and overacting.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20190217/46528947189/la-mayoria-de-los-espanoles-elige-el-dialogo-para-resolver-la-crisis-catalana.html

 

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So, there's this poll. The left is getting trounced in Madrid, though that's not really new anyway.

I was meaning to ask, what are the best pollsters in Spain? What pollsters should I turn a blind eye to?

Best pollsters (or at least the most accurate thus far) seems to have been GAD3, which has also been consistently good.

Worst pollster by far is CIS. It barely counts as a poll at this point. If Sánchez loses the election, then it might become good again as it's owned by the government. Traditionally it wasn't the most accurate pollster but the methodology and information provided was really good.

Of the private pollsters, the worst seems to be Metroscopia

Vox takes its anti-immigration message to Madrid

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/18/inenglish/1550506982_047374.html


Brussels fears Spain becomes in the new Italy

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/18/inenglish/1550477002_732280.html?rel=mas


Cs decision to rule out deals with socialists has been received with some skepticism, because many people remember Albert Rivera promising that he'd never support Mariano Rajoy before the 2016 elections. There is a tough competition between the three rightwing parties, with Pablo Casado and the PP engaged in an absurd rhetoric radicalism (part ideological conviction, part fear of Vox) and the oranges not wanting to get left behind (some voters switching from PP to Cs might be tempted to vote for Vox). Also, the tactical turn to the right is motivated by the desire of Albert Rivera to become the next PM by leading the rightwing block. Rivera is not particularly good at strategy, on the other hand. Depending on election results, it might be some pressure for a PSOE-Cs agreement that provides stability to the Spanish government. However, the differences over the crisis management in Catalonia (talks policy Vs article 155) and the tough rhetoric of Albert Rivera make an agreement very difficult. We'll have to wait after the elections to see what happens.


This is not a proper poll. Rather it's an extrapolation to the province of Madrid of a nationwide poll. No doubt that Madrid is a right leaning province, but I think the PSOE will get better results in the general elections.

Apparently El Periódico de Cataluña published a poll about whether the Catalan issue should be solved with talks or with another round of article 155 (direct rule).

This wouldn't be noteworthy if it wasn't because they took crosstabs for several regions of Spain. The results are here:

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Quite surprising to say the least. First of all, I'm surprised talks aren't just winning, but that they are winning handily. Brute force was a lot more popular a couple months ago.

Either way looking at the crosstabs obviously the Basques and Catalans are almost unanimously opposed. Galicia is also quite opposed.

Beyond that there aren't many significant differences elsewhere.

Giles Tremlett reviews the Podemos crisis in The Guardian, What went wrong?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/19/podemos-spanish-politics


There is the Errejón factor. The differences between him and Pablo Iglesias went beyond alliance policy and strategy. They had a long time friendship which was underminded and broken by politics. Errejón is regarded by many as the most talented of the Podemos founders


Another interesting angle is the relationship between the Podemos leadership and the mayors of Madrid and Barcelona: Manuela Carmena and Ada Colau


There are problems in the relationship between Podemos and the regional allies


Tremlett says that Podemos should ask itself why the three most powerful women in the alternative left (Carmena, Colau and Oltra) operate outside the party, as well as mentions the role of speakswoman in Congress Irene Montero (she's a young and talented politician, a former member of the communist youth who hapens to be the Iglesias' couple). He finishes saying the Andalusia results prove that "something went badly wrong". His diagnosis is "internal strife and narrowness of vision"

Pedro Sánchez presented yesterday the PSOE's pre-campaign. The slogan is "The Spain You Want". I just watched the video and it's good, conveys the message of an inclusive Spain where everybody fits in. It's filmed in b/w

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3vxiVaW7wk




The GAD3 poll has the same results on the same question (see a previous post) and it's noteworthy. This turn in public opinion provides a ray of light, IMO

If Podemos is drubbed, will Iglesias try and stay on anyway?

The problem with Podemos is that style of leadership focused on the cult of the Pablo Iglesias personality. It won't be easy to replace him. I remember some rumours pointing Irene Montero as a possible leader after the next general elections. I think she has a raw talent to develop, but she has some disadvantages as well: too young, couple of Pablo Iglesias... Ideologically she and the Pablo Iglesias inner circle are a bit Leninist for my taste. The communist youth makes its mark.

On a related note, I read today there are problens with the Podemos and IU alliances in some regions. There are regions like Asturias and Murcia where both organizations will run separate lists. Madrid and other regions are in the air.  IU might ally with Anticapitalistas (the far-left wing of Pidemos) in some places ...  

I think the comparison of Andalusia and the Castillas is quite interesting, would have expected it to be the other way round based on traditional partisan support - I suppose the fact that it isn't is quite telling.

The leader of the opposition in Catalonia Inés Arrimadas is about to enter national politics. She will run for the province of Barcelona in the next general elections. The decision will be officially announced today in a campaign act taking place in Madrid with Cs leader Albert Rivera. Arrimadas will replace Cs spokesman in Congress and former journalist Juan Carlos Girauta on the top of the Barcelona list. Girauta will top the list for Toledo because he's moving his residence to that province. The Operation Arrimadas has been forged with great secrecy, to the point that high officers like secretary general José Manuel Villegas were completely unaware. The news has created internal shock and raised some opposition in an organization totally controlled by Rivera. Arrimadas is very popular for her role in Catalonia and is the only person in the party who could overshadow the supreme leader. Tomorrow she will travel to Belgium in order to perform an act in front of the Puigdemont's residence in Waterloo and remember the ousted premier that the Catalan republic does not exist. Arrimadas could be replaced by regional deputy Lorena Roldán as the Cs spokeswoman in Catalonia. The decision is interpreted as a firm intent to fight with all weapons against PP for the leadership of the Spanish Right.

According to El País, the decision made by the Cs leadership to veto government deals with the PSOE is motivated by public opinion surveys. Demoscopic information shows that there are many rightwing undecided voters that could switch to PP, Cs or Vox. Most of these voters repudiates Pedro Sánchez, as well there is a dangerous vote transfer from Cs to Vox. People like economist Luis Garicano defended not ruling out deals with PSOE, but demoscopic evidence was apparently very strong and finally the decision was approved unanimously.

Disturbing news from Andalusia: Vox asks for the names of gender violence workers, claiming that many of them are not qualified and their decisions are ideologically motivated

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/22/inenglish/1550852190_868783.html


There is some purge flavour floating in the air...


The fact that a most people in Andalusia and the Castillas supports the implementation of direct rule is telling, but not very surprising. As for the comparison between these regions, maybe the sample size is not large enough to establish meaningful conclusions. The CIS surveys might be more helpful in that regard, because they have larger samples and make questions on territorial issues. Anyway the opposition of Andalusians to the separatist drive in Catalonia and the divisive effect of that drive within the Spanish Left influenced the last regional elections. Events in Catalonia have always a deep impact in Andalusia for many and varied reasons. Catalonia is sometimes called the "9th province" of Andalusia because there are more than 1 million of people with Andalusian ancestry living there. It's worth noting that the stance of the PSOE branches in Andalusia, Extremadura and Castilla La Mancha is tougher than the stance of the national PSOE. Their 'barons' or regional leaders (Susana Díaz, Guillermo Fernández Vara and Emiliano García-Page) are not the best friends of Pedro Sánchez. Recently the Extremadura regional assembly made a proclamation supporting of the implementation of article 155 in Catalonia with the votes of PSOE, PP and Cs (Podemos opposed)

New poll by Sigma Dos for El Mundo:
PSOE: 27.3% (110-114)
PP: 19.1% (71-75)
C's: 16% (54-58)
UP: 14.4% (37-39)
VOX: 13.3% (44-46)
Left Block: 41.7% Right Block: 48.4%
Coalitions: PSOE+UP+Nationalists: 173-179 seats/PSOE+C's: 164-172 seats/PP+VOX+C's: 169-179 seats

New poll by Sondaxe for La Voz de Galicia:
PSOE: 28.2% (116)
PP: 19.3% (76)
VOX: 14.2% (51)
UP: 14.2% (39)
C's: 13.5% (40)
Left Block: 42.4% Right Block: 47%
Coalitions: PSOE+UP+Nationalists: 183 seats/PSOE+C's: 156 seats/PP+VOX+C's: 167 seats

The PSOE strategy of conquering the center seems to be working very well. Centrist voters are fleeing from C's due to the party's cuddling with the far-right and its veto on a PSOE-C's coalition. The only problem for them is that their preferred option (PSOE-C's) is very far away from the 176 seats necessary for a majority, they'd need to win the separatists' support once again, which would much more difficult this time around.

The Invymark poll has better numbers for the right: PSOE 24.3%, PP 21%, Cs 20.2%, UP 13.9%, VOX 11.3%

I would like to think that PSOE is recovering ground in the centre at the expense of Cs, but it seems that socialists make gains at the expense of Podemos. Sigma Dos and Sondaxe are showing that VOX is biting PP and Cs alike. The turn to the right of PP and Cs seems to be motivated by the rise of the far right at their expense.

Invymark has been overestimating the right for quite some time now. It is published by the progressive La Sexta, so they're probably trying to mobilize the left.
If you look at the combined left total in Sigma Dos , you can see that the gap with the right is becoming smaller. And take a look at the variations with the previous Sigma Dos poll:
PSOE: 27,3% +4,7 (110-114) +18
PP: 19,1% -0,1 (71-75) +1
Cs: 16,0% -2,8 (54-58) -12
UP: 14,4% -1,4 (37-39) -8
VOX: 13,3% +0,4 (44-46) +1
Clearly PSOE is taking away some vote from C's too, not from UP alone.

Honestly, I don't consider PSOE-UP-Nationalists (other than PNV) to be a viable coalition. If ERC and PDECat refused to even pass Sánchez's budget, why would they vote for him as PM?

The PP/C's seem, like Michael, to be losing moderate/centrist voters to PSOE. Of course, PSOE is benefiting with the implosion of Podemos, while the rightwing turn of PP and C's isn't also benefiting them because, i say, people prefer the original, Vox, than those who try to copy it, and might i say, very badly.

I think PP would be doing a much better under Soraya Saenz Santamaria than with Casado. She would attract moderate voters that, now, seem to be fleeing from C's to PSOE. But i would like to hear Tack's, Velasco's or Michael's opinion.

Honestly, I have my doubts about whether the PP would be doing better now with Soraya. On one hand, yes, a lot of moderate voters that are going to the socialists now would be supporting the PP. But on the other hand, one of Vox's main argument is that the PP is too soft and it resonates even with the very conservative Casado at the helm. With Soraya leading the party Vox would have more support right now.

Overall I think both effects would roughly cancel each other; but there are also many unknowns about what the party would have done under Soraya. For example, would it have reached an agreement with Vox in Andalusia?

I think that Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría would have been a better leader for the PP, obviously. Even though I would never vote for parties like PP pr Cs for ideological and sentimental reasons, I realize that healthy democracies need parties that represent people with liberal and conservative views. I believe that it's in everybody's interest that the main parties have a decent leadership. Santamaría is more skillful than Casado and has a lot of experience in government. She knows how the machinery of the state works, as well as she has a pragmatic approach to politics. Casado is a conservative hack unexperienced and a with dubious academic credentials, the puppy of Esperanza Aguirre and José ;María Aznar. My impression is that Casado could be an incompetent and potentially dangerous PM. Certainly Soraya would have been less prone to rhetorical excess and the PP would have been more centered and moderate under her leadership. However, I'm afraid the Vox surge is an inevitability. It's caused by indignation and anger, triggered by the Catalan crisis (possibly thre are more underlying causes). Vox is the party that represents the rightwing indignados. Despite everything, I think it's better that mainstream liberal and conervative parties preserve their values and personality instead of buying the far right agenda, mimicking its rhetorical excess and ideological extremism. It'd be a way to contain the phenomenon within a relative marginality in the short term... although I think the strategy of the cordon sanitaire doesn't work in the long term, because it doesn't target the root causes. Indeed, I think voters would prefer the original to the copy...

It's worth noting that the only poll that was done with both candidates found Soraya performing worse than Casado. Granted, that was well before the Vox surge, from a fairly unknown pollster (Top Position) and hypothetical polling in general is pretty bad.

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Still it's the only concrete data point we have.

I personally think Soraya would make for an infinitely better PM than Casado. She might also be more effective at getting moderate Cs and maybe PSOE voters (I could even see her running to the left of Cs on many issues!)

However, I also think she would lose even more to Vox. My hypothetical is that if Soraya was PP leader, polling would probably be closer to something like:

PSOE: 26%
PP: 19%
Vox: 19%
UP: 14%
Cs: 11%

Others 11%

So ironically not much change in PP, but Cs collapsing. Though I could also see PP not being effective at getting Cs voters so it would be Cs doing well and PP going the way of the dodo.

The trial of the Catalan separatist leaders continues. By the moment the prosecution is having a hard time proving that separatists resorted to violence, the essential requirement of the charge of rebellion (defendants are also charged with sedition, misuse of public funds and disobedience). We are only at the early stages, though

Jordi Cuixart: "The referendum was the biggest exercise in civil disobedience in Europe"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/26/inenglish/1551194163_039224.html


Important testimonies are scheduled in the upcoming days, including: Mariano Rajoy (former Spanish PM), Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría (former Deputy PM), Artur Mas (former Catalan premier) and Íñigo Urkullu (Basque premier)

The prosecutor0s office in Madrid will request three years and three months of prison for Cristina Cifuentes, the former premier who is accused of forging her Master's degree certificate.

Foreign Affairs minister Josep Borrell will be the top candidate of the PSOE in the upcoming EP elections.

Cs hired a former speaker of the Castilla y León regional assembly creating some controversy. Silvia Clemente resigned her position and the PP memberhip a few days ago, in order to run in the Cs primary election to nominate the party's candidate. Clemente has been in politics more than 20 years, holding several regional portfolios (cultire, environment and agriculture). She alleged that PP premier Alfonso Pérez Mañueco lacks ambition and a project for the region, but she was about to lose her position in the PP electoral list. There are some doubts on her honesty because Clemente's husband spent 1 million euros of unknown origin in a refurbishment, as well the same enterprise in charge of the works at her hisband's house was given contracts by the regional Department of Agriculture during Clemente's tenure. She will be opposed in the primaries by a Cs regional deputy called Francsco Igea. Clemente will run as an independent because the Cs leadership gave her a special permission and she is backed by Secretary general José Manuel Villegas. The move was an "unpleasant surprise" for the PP. In case Silvia Clemente gets the nomination, post-eletion agreements with the incumbent premier seem difficult. The PSOE in Castilla y León is happy with this conflict in the right.

The CIS has published its monthly poll and as always, the numbers are just ridiculous:
PSOE: 33.3% (up 3.4%)
PP: 16.7% (up 1.8%)
C's: 15.3% (down 2.4%)
UP: 14.5% (down 0.9%)
VOX: 5.9% (down 0.6%)
ERC: 3.3% (down 1.4%)
Left Block: 47.8% Right Block: 37.9%

Also mind that the survey was made during the relator mess, making it even less believable. If during those days the PSOE was on 33%, how much is Tezanos giving his party next time? 40%? 50%? Other notable aspects of the "poll" are VOX being laughably underestimated and ERC losing nearly a third of its voters for no apparent reason.

Basque premier mediated between Mariano Rajoy and Carles Puigdemont ahead of the independence declaration by the Catalan parliament

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/28/inenglish/1551369776_890031.html


This testimony is very interesting and quite telling as well. It was not a secret that Urkullu and others mediated between the Spanish and the Catalan governments. Recently the Spanish Right created a political storm over the proposal (poorly explained by Deputy PM Carmen Calvo) to sppoint a "rapporteur", in order to coordonate the meetings of a future Catalan party talks. Casado and Rivera cried "high treason" and went to Colón Square with Abascal, making the Vox's campaign.


Everything you need to know about the CIS poll is in El Mundo Today

https://www.elmundotoday.com/2019/02/la-senora-del-psoe-que-responde-a-las-encuestas-del-cis-vuelve-a-pronosticar-la-victoria-de-pedro-sanchez/?fbclid=IwAR39WQUM88T-W_v2hLQDx5szA5JspmBc6JIag8Ik47PBdToMbLMJOIV8REs

I predict that Pedro Sánchez is going to win as that woman did, or at least the PSOE will come first. The question is the margin and its influence in the final composition of the parliament. I would take a beer with the 'traitor' Pedro Sánchez too...

It seems the key to this election is the vote share of UP and VOX.  There seems to be an inflection point around 13%-14% vote share (which could shift because it depends on the vote share of other parties) where above this threshold there will be a surge of seats and below it the seat haul seems low. So the question becomes is the VOX vote share like 10%-11% or 13%-14%.  Just like the question is also will UF vote share be 11%-12% or 14%-15%.  The polls seems to indicate that for both parties both levels of support are possible.  Weather one or both or none of these 2 parties gets around that inflection point seems critical to the nature of government formation post election.

Woman's Day demonstrations will take place in four days. According to a 40dB poll released yesterday by El País 64.5% of women under 25 declare themselves feminist, almost twice than 5 years ago. Support for feminism decreases among women aged between 35 and 54 years and increases again among those aged above 55. Men are less concerned: 45.9% under 25 declare themselves feminist and the percentage decreases with older age.


Nearly a half of women and a third of men think that the goal of feminism is the real equality between genders. PSOE and Podemos voters agree at a higher rate; in contrast 70% of Vox voters rejects that feminism pursues equality.

Podemos and PSOE are rated as the most feminist parties with a great difference over Cs, PP and Vox:


The most important goals of the feminist movement are, in decreasing order: eliminate the glass ceiling, fight gender based violence, harassment and sexual assaults, gender stereotypes, domestic work equally, abortion, gender quotas, inclusive language.

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2019/03/03/actualidad/1551638433_568255.html

A Spanish ultraconservative organization has launched a campaign against "feminazis"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/01/inenglish/1551428604_932895.html


On the other hand, Cs launched a somewhat misguided "liberal feminist" manifesto in a desperate attempt to differentiate from Vox. Oranges admit the existence of gender based violence and commit themselves against that plague. They say that feminism is not a monopoly of the left. In my opinion, the problem is their idea of "liberalism" in relation to prostitution and surrogacy. Cs advocates for a regulation of these practices, considering that being into prostitution and womb renting are a matters of free choice, ignoring the socioeconomic circumstances that force women to sell their bodies.

As you see, feminism is a campaign issue.

The last thing appearing in the Wikipedia's summary of polls is a Key Data analysis ("poll of polls") released by Público that estimates the following results:

PSOE 25.1%, PP 21.5%, Cs 18%, UP 14.5%, Vox 10.9%, ERC 3.1%, PDeCAT 1.5%, EAJ-PNV 1.3%

Seats estimated:

The same argument can be made against wage labour, which is precisely why I disagree with such arguments against prostitution and surrogacy - I consider them morally equivalent to wage labour, and the reactionary right arguments against prostitution and surrogacy are also based on the premise that they are not morally equivalent with wage labour.

Electomania.es apparently will be publishing vote estimations all weekdays for all elections that will happen. (so mondays for the general election, tuesdays for the EU elections, etc)

These are not proper polls, but estimations based off an online panel. So you shoud treat them with caution.

http://electomania.es/ep4m/#idc-cover

Also, apparently premier Ximo Puig (PSOE) of the Valencian Community will call a snap regional election for the day of the general election (28th of April), probably trying to capitalize on the PSOE surge nationally.

https://www.lasprovincias.es/politica/puig-convoca-consell-adelanto-electoral-comunitat-valenciana-20190304090807-nt.html

Ironically, Puig was originally against a "super sunday" yet he will now call for one lol

If confirmed, there would be several firsts:

-First regional election to happen the same day as a general election since Andalucia 2008

-First snap regional election in a "non historic" autonomous community (ie not Andalucia/Catalonia/Basque Country/Galicia) since Asturias 2012

-First snap regional election that won't get a regular election when the original election term is over (wouldn't even make sense in this case)

Over the last 15 years, several autonomous communities passed new autonomy statutes giving themselves more powers, among those the power to call snap regional elections and not be confined to holding them alongside the local elections. However, the Valencian Community will be the first to exercise this power.

I'm currently rating the Valencian regional elections as lean PP. Puig is an underdog, but he is not overly disadvantaged.

My opinion is that prostitution and surrogacy imply the commodification of the women's body, not to mention the sordid elements surrounding prostitution and sexual exploitation. Wage labour implies that you sell your workforce to the employer, not necessarily your body in a sexually exploitative way. Maybe there's a difference after all, but possibly all these things are to be discused in other boards... As for surrogacy, I  just heard to Inés Arrimadas saying that Cs only supports it when surrogacy is "altruist", not the "womb renting". I find difficult to imagine a woman of middle or high socioeconomic status breeding a child for other woman only for altruist reasons. Apparently the Cs folks think otherwise

I find this electopanel super interesting. I'll be constantly checking it.

Valencia premier Ximo Puig (PSOE) calls regional election on April 28, alongside general elections. This decision is aimed to increase turnout, taking afvantage of the Pedro Sánchez's traction and give nationwide visibility to the Valencia region. PSOE governs in coalition with leftwing regionalist Compromis and the Podemos confidence and supply. Compromis was opposed to this date, preferring May 26 alongside local elections. Compromis is led by deputy premier Mónica Oltra; another leading figure of the regionalists is the mayor of the capital city of Valencia Joan Ribó.

Very, very risky. A regional election on April 28 means a worse result for Compromis, securing the PSPV's status as the main left-wing party, but it also means that the campaign will probably be nationalized, helping the right-wing parties. Could be the political suicide of the year.

Time to repost the 2015 map


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Valencian_regional_election

The moves in Valencia are a classic case of poltiicians playing for the short term. Back when PSOE was down to the triumvirate, they didn't want to taint the locals. Now that they are about equal and PSOE is rising, local leaders want to hop on that train. Of course things can change in a month, so its a a rather short sighted move.

The snap election in Andalusia was already a political suicide. Susana Diaz miscalculated her forces, expecting to win easily without the help of her enemy Pedro Sánchez and the national PSOE. The plan of Susana Diaz was to repeat her deal with Ciudadanos and wait the right moment to adjust accounts with Pedro Sánchez, once the fragile coalition with Podemos and the peripheral nationalists was beginning to break down. Then she could take revenge. The wear of the Andalusian socialists after 37 years in government and the corruption scandals (ERE case and others), as well as the repercusions of the Catalan conundrum, created the conditions for disaster. Four previous regional elections were called in Andalusia in coincidence with the Spanish general elections. In all cases the PSOE performed well.

Ximo Puig appears to be a pragmatist. He supported Susana Diaz in the leadership contest, but now he has an acceptable relationship with Pedro Sánchez (the PM's right hand José Luis Abalos is Valencian). Puig is seeking to  repeat a left-wing majority, because a deal with Cs is very unlikely in Valencia. Cs regional candidate Toni Cantó says that Puig is a  Trojan Horse of the Catalans. Puig is fron Morella, a small town of the Castellón province located near to the border with Aragon and Catalonia, in the NW corner of the region (see the deep red in the map). He is more moderate than Susana Diaz and other socialist 'barons' in what concerns the management of the Catalan crisis. His relationship with Compromis has been reasonably good, although the move to call a snap election is opposed by Mónica Oltra (however she stated the coalition will be repeated, although she hopes to win and be the next premier). Obviously Puig is seeking to reinforce the PSPV-PSOE at the expense of Compromis. The move is a relief for Unidos Podemos as well, because the cpincidence with general elections might help to reduce losses. Puig is taking a risk, but maybe this tactical move will work (or maybe not).

PP will not attend the Women's Day march today while Pablo Casado attacks "left-wing feminists"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/07/inenglish/1551946883_713484.html


While I think it's undeniable the radical and the far right are misogynist and it's  necessary to denounce leaders like Trump or Bolsonaro (among others) in a Women's Day march, possibly it would have been better to negotiate the declaration's wording. Despite Casado and some radicals in the PP, there some are right-wing women believing in gender equality (feminism is not about sex war) that should be in the march. However and in my view, the double standard of PP and Cs with regards to Vox detracts legitimacy to their complaints.

Vox member arrested on alleged sexual abuse of disabled man.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/06/inenglish/1551879031_488424.html


In other news, Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias will return to a more active role on March 23, after his paternity leave. This image was briefly posted in the party's Twitter account and raised criticism due to its "messianic" message. It says:

"VUELVE" ("HE COMES BACK"). "Pablo Iglesias meets again with the people".

Maybe this is not the best way to refute the personality cult allegations...

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Ok, so today was Womens' day. Like last year, there was a strike programmed, which seems to be completely nonexistent, although I have to say it was marginally more successful than last year.

I do expect the protests this to be huge though, certainly larger than last year.

The main difference is obviously the fact that Vox is a lot larger than last year, wiht their controversial anti-feminist platform, as well as the PP turn to the right.

Today El Mundo published a poll about this issue. Here are its results:

Do you think it's reasonable that the anti gender violence law has stronger punishments for men than for women because of their physical superiority?

(Yes-No)

Men: 35-55
Women: 34-50
Overall: 34-53

Do you think your significant other is sexist? (machista)

(Yes-no)

Men: 2-87
Women: 12-77
Overall: 7-82

Do you consider yourself a feminist?
(Yes-no)

Men: 37-55
Women: 49-47
Overall: 43-51

I personally know mistreated women
(Yes-no)

Men: 40-59
Women: 48-52
Overall: 44-55

Do you consider Spanish politics to be sexist?

Men: 55-40
Women: 71-22
Overall: 64-31

Full poll, with party and age crosstabs: https://www.elmundo.es/papel/historias/2019/03/08/5c81477efdddffe7208b463a.html

Actually, forget what I said earlier, the strike was actually a (partial) success this year.

Electric consumption is down 2% right now. That is indeed low, but putting it in comparison to other strikes puts them into context:

-The 2012 general strike saw roughly a 14% decrease.

-The 2017 Catalan strike saw roughly a 3% decrease

-The 2018 women's strike saw no decrease at this time, peaking at a 2% decrease around 8:30 (the time of the protests)

Assuming the energy consumption data follows a 2018-like pattern, that means the strike will see a 5% decrease or so at its peak, and a 2% decrease over the whole day.

Those are numbers comparable to the Catalan strike, albeit spread out across the whole country, and with less people to strike (7.5 million Catalans vs 23 million women, and that doesn't count the handful of men who follow the strike as well)

Still, certainly a lot bigger than last year.

It's not posible to compare the women's strike with a general strike for various reasons. To begin eith this one is for women: men are asked to support it by replacing women in all the tasks usually performed by the latter, including non-paid activities traditionally feminine such as homework and caring. Another aspect tp take into account is that unions are not calling the strike, just giving legal coverage. Mainstream unions (UGT and CCOO) are supporting 2h strikes by shift work, while other unions are supporting 24h strikes. Women can choose one option or another. Comparisons in electric consumption decrease with the 2012 general strike or the 2017 strike in Catalonia are not appropiate.

El País:  "Students lead the protests for the International Women's Day"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/08/inenglish/1552051103_915747.html


Feminist marches throughout Spain were massive. According to the government's delegations, around 350k gathered in Madrid (170k the previous year, according the same sources) and 220k in Valencia. Local police estimated 200k people in the Barcelona march. Even taking the estimation made by El País for the Madrid march, which is 230k at the declaration's reading, the figure is much higher tan the attendance to the right wing rally in Colón Square. I'm not implying a correlation between these figures and possible election results, just to be clear. I think it's undeniable these protests will have political repercussions, but it's up to see if they can contribute to mobilize certain voter groups (for instance: left-wing, young and female). In any case, I think these marches are positive because I believe that achieving real gender equality is a worthwile cause.

Gallery:

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/08/album/1552057387_882592.html#foto_gal_1

NYT has an interesting peace on the raise of the minimum wage

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/07/business/spain-minimum-wage.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FSpain

Are PP, Vox or C's saying they'll repeal Sanchez's minimum wage increase?

So according to the polls, the Basque Nationalist Party is going to decide who would become PM?
What is their opinion of VOX? I guess they won't like supporting an hardcore centralist party?

As far as I know, the PP supports a gradual increase of minimum wage similar to the one agreed between the Mariano Rajoy administration, unions and employers organizations. PP submitted a counterproposal in late 2018 to increase minimum wage to 773 Euros in 2019, instead of the 900 Euros agreed between PSOE and UP.

On the other hand, Cs is proposing to create a commission, something like a panel of experts or a board of economists, an advisory organ that reports to the government. The minimum wage would be fixed by the government on the recommendations of said panel.

I don't know what is the Vox proposal on minimum wage.

 

I guess PP and Cs will incorporate these proposals in their platforms. Vox has a 100 point manifesto plenty of populist hooks, but I'm afraid they don't care very much about details. I don't know if these parties are going to launch an overt campaign against the increase of minimum wage. Possibly it will be more profitable for them campaigning on other issues related to identity politics.


Obviously the PNV folks have a terrible opinion of a party like Vox that stands for the abolition of regional autonomy. There was already a big concern in the PNV ranks last year, when Cs took the lead in the polls. Cs is not as radically centralist as to support the abolition of the autonomous communuties. However the Oranges are very vocal against the special tax system ruling in the Basque Country (Concierto Económico), because they consider it's a privilege. Cs is more centralist than PP on this question, since the PP doesn't oppose the Concierto. The PNV has made advantageous agreements in the past with PP administrations (either Rajoy or Aznar) in exchange for confidence and supply or support for the national budget. However the PNV will never support a coalition that incorporates Cs or Vox,  given their radical centralist stance. Basque nationalists are more prone to support a government led by Pedro Sánchez,  although not without monetary or other considerations. The problem for Pedro Sánchez is not the PNV, rather it's the reliance upon Catalan separatist parties. The decision of Cs to put a veto on Sánchez and his party fixes two opposite blocks and leaves no room for other combinations

Here's the new round of polling:
GAD3 for ABC:
PSOE: 30.6%(134 seats)
PP: 22.1% (87 seats)
C's: 13.2% (38 seats)
VOX: 12.1% (36 seats)
UP: 11.8% (30 seats)
Left Block: 42.4% Right Block: 47.4%
Coalitions: PSOE+UP+Nationalists: 189 seats; PSOE+C's: 172 seats; PP+C's+VOX: 161 seats

Sociométrica for El Español:
PSOE: 27.6%(119-121 seats)
C's: 17.8% (63-65 seats)
PP: 17.5% (69-71 seats)
UP: 14.1% (37-39 seats)
VOX: 12.1% (31-34 seats)
Left Block: 41.7% Right Block: 47.4%
Coalitions: PSOE+UP+Nationalists: 182-186 seats; PSOE+C's: 182-186 seats; PP+C's+VOX: 163-170 seats

Invymark for La Sexta:
PSOE: 25.2%(107 seats)
PP: 20.4% (81 seats)
C's: 20.3% (73 seats)
UP: 13.2% (34 seats)
VOX: 11.5% (28 seats)
Left Block: 38.4% Right Block: 52.2%
Coalitions: PSOE+UP+Nationalists: 165 seats; PSOE+C's: 181 seats; PP+C's+VOX: 182 seats

Each poll is saying something different: for GAD3, C's is going down to 2016 levels and for Sociométrica and Invymark the party is tied with PP. For GAD3 and Sociométrica the right-wing block is going to lose seats, while Invymark says it will win a majority. The only thing that seems clear is that PSOE is going to win by a substantial margin. Everything else is up in the air.
It should be noted, however, that the pollsters that work for conservative media outlets (GAD3 and Sociométrica) are the ones that are giving the left victory, while the one that works for a progressive outlet (Invymark)  is giving it to the right.
What's happening is very clear. No pollster knows what is going to happen and they're just trying to mobilize their camp's voters. Right wing pollsters are trying to water down the possibility of a right-wing government supported by VOX so that leftist voters fall in complacency while the left-wing ones are doing the opposite in order to mobilize the left.

Ciudadanos (Cs) held primary elections on Sunday to nominate candidates for the upcoming elections in April and May. The primary election to select the regional candidate in Castilla y León turned out to be a fiasco, the first serious setback for Albert Rivera and his controversial policy of "recruiting talent" from other parties. Independent pre-candidate Silvia Clemente was proclaimed on Sunday over national deputy Francisco Igea, after winning the contest by a narrow margin of 35 votes. The nomination of Clemente was suspended on the following day, after her rival demanded an audit of the voting records. It was discovered the sum of the votes for the candidates exceeded the votes cast by 81. The party's guarantee commission declared these votes null and proclaimed Igea as the winner. As said in a previous post, Silvia Clemente is a controversial and long time PP member who was speaker of the regional assembly and held several portfolios in the regional government. This apparent voting fraud adds up to various suspicions over her past activities. Clemente had the overt support of Cs secretary general José Manuel Villegas. Nobody at Cs has taken the responsibility for the voting fraud, nor gave any explanation aside saying it was "someone's error". Bad business for a party that claims to be a champion against corruption.

60% of undecided voters are women, according to the last CIS survey. In other words, 4 million women have yet to decide who to vote in April and May

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/05/inenglish/1551780068_025839.html

First of all, there has been a deal in Navarra between UPN (Right wing regionalists, traditionally close to PP), PP and Cs to run together in the general and regional elections. This is probably good news for conservatives, as it will optimize their vote much more efficiently than with separate parties. For the general election this gives them at least 2 Congress seats with a chance at 3. In the Senate it gives them either 1 or 3 Senators (I don't think htey will be locked out). And in the regional and local elections, it will optimize their vote as there was a real risk of both PP and Cs falling below the threshold. This is especially important for Pamplona mayor, where the Bildu incumbent is probably not favoured (albeit far from dead on arrival). The regioanl election is harder, but not impossible.

The platform will be called "Navarra suma" (Navarra adds up)

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20190311/pp-ciudadanos-upn-pacto-electoral-navarra-7347336

And speaking of regional elections...

---

Electomanía has been publishing weekly estimations for all elections (local, regional, general, EU) reciently. These aren't proper polls, but instead are "online panels".

I don't think they are of much use for the general election. However, given the lack of polling for the May regional elections (for good reason), I think their regional polls are worth checking out, as they will probably be the only polls we get until after the general election (and even after it, who knows how many regional polls we will get, there's also the EU election after all).

The only one that looks totally wrong is the Balearic Islands one (they give out 63 seats when there are only 59 seats in the Assembly). However there are other weird facts like the fact that they give Vox extremely good numbers and the fact that they seem to predict a lot of ticket splitting between the general, EU, local and regional elections.

In any case, here they are for this week.

http://electomania.es/ep13m/

Asturias
PSOE 15
PP 10
Cs 6
Vox 5
Podemos 5
IU 3
Foro Asturias 1 (right wing regionalists, PP split)

Castille-Leon
PSOE 28
PP 25
Vox 15
Cs 9
UP 3
UPL 1 (Centrist Leon regionalists)

Cantabria
PRC 10 (centre-left Cantabria regionalists)
PP 7
PSOE 6
Vox 5
Cs 4
UP 3

La Rioja
PSOE 10
PP 7
Cs 5
Vox 5
UP 4
PR+: 2 (centrist Riojan regionalists)

Navarra
UPN 14 (right wing Navarra regionalists/unionists, pro Spanish unity and the like)
PSOE 10
GBai 10 (centrist Navarra nationalists, pro joining the Basque Country, kind of a Navarra branch of PNV to some extent)
EH Bildu 8 (left wing Basque secessionists)
Podemos 4
IU 2
Cs 2

Madrid
PSOE 40
Vox 26
PP 24
Cs 20
MM 11 (left wing, Podemos split led by Íñigo Errejón)
Podemos 11

Extremadura
PSOE 24
PP 14
Vox 13
Cs 8
UP 6

Castille-La Mancha
PSOE 13
PP 10
Vox 5
Cs 3
UP 2

Murcia
PP 12
PSOE 11
Cs 10
Vox 8
UP 4

Aragon
PSOE 19
PP 16
Vox 11
UP 8
Cs 8
PAR 3 (centre-right Aragon regionalists)
ChA 2 (left wing Aragon regionalists)

Valencia (election in April, not May)
PSOE 29
PP 22
Compromís 15 (left wing Valencia nationalists)
Vox 15
Cs 13
UP 5

Balearic Islands (going with percentages as the seat count doesn't add up)

PSOE: 20.6%
PP 16.9%
Cs: 13.5%
MES: 13.3% (left wing Balearic Islands nationalists)
Vox: 11.5%
UP: 10.0%
PI: 8.0% (centre-right Balearic Islands nationalists)
MPM: 1.5% (brand of MES in Minorca)
GxF: 0.5% (centre-left Formentera local party)

Canary Islands

PSOE 20
CC 16 (centre-right Canarian nationalists)
PP 12
NCa 7 (left wing Canarian nationalists)
UP 6
Cs 4
ASG 3 (centre-left La Gomera local party)
Vox 2

---

If these "panel" is to be belived, my predictions would be:

Asturias: PSOE-Podemos-IU
Castille-Leon: PP-Vox-Cs
Cantabria: PRC-PSOE-UP
La Rioja: PSOE-PR+-Cs !!!
Navarra: PSOE-GBai-Podemos-IU
Madrid: Vox-PP-Cs !!
Extremadura: PP-Cs-Vox
Castille-La Mancha: PP-Vox-Cs
Murcia: PP-Cs-Vox
Aragon: PP-Cs-Vox
Valencia: PSOE-Compromís-UP
Balearic Islands: PSOE-Mes-MPM-GxF-PI
Canary Islands: PSOE-NCa-UP-ASG

The most surprising result by far is La Rioja. A community which everyone thought was safe for PP, but where this panel predicts there's a possibility of PSOE taking back the region for the first time since 1991. Other long term flips involve the Canary Islands going to PSOE for the first time since 1993, Navarra going to PSOE for the first time since 1995 and (technically) Madrid flipping for the first time since 1995 (if we forget about 2003's Tamayazo).

In terms of trends, this panel also predicts the left holding a lot better in places they reciently captured that have a regional language or some sort of regionalist movement (Balearic Islands, Canary Islands, Valencia, Navarra) than even in their strongest strongholds like Castille-La Mancha or Extremadura.

Extremadura would be particularly damaging as, like with Andalucia, there has never been a right wing majority there. Extremadura is probably the closest community to Andalucia sociologically speaking. Unlike Andalucia Extremadura did have a PP premier at one point though; when in 2011 Jose Antonio Monago (PP) led a minority government propped up by IU abstaining. But even then, PSOE+IU had a majority on paper, it's just that IU decided to prop up a PP minority instead.

Finally, here are my personal ratings:

Asturias: 2 way tossup (PSOE-PP)
Castille-Leon: Safe PP
Cantabria: Lean PRC
La Rioja: Likely PP
Navarra: 3 way tossup (PSOE-GBai-UPN)
Madrid: 3 way tossup (PSOE-Cs-PP)
Extremadura: 2 way tossup (PSOE-PP)
Castille-La Mancha: 2 way tossup (PSOE-PP)
Murcia: Likely PP
Aragon: Likely PP
Valencia: 2 way tossup (PSOE-PP)
Balearic Islands: Lean PSOE
Canary Islands: Lean PSOE
Ceuta: Lean PP
Melilla: Lean PP

I think I used too many tossups :P But I do think there is genuinely a lot of uncertainty about the regional elections; even more than for the general one.

Indeed. This deal forces Cs to modulate its stance against the special tax system of Navarre, which is more or less similar to that of the neighbouring Basque Country. On the other hand, this opposition is the main reason of the Cs weakness in the "Foral Territories" (Navarre and the Basque provinces). The chances of winning seats for Cs in the Navarrese regional elections and in the Basque provincial elections (Diputaciones Forales) are very slim running in its own. I heard the following rationale to Luis Garicano, who is the Cs chief economist and top candidate for the EP elections: Cs will respect the economic agreement of Navarre because it's in the Spanish Constitution; however, Cs is still against these regional particularities and would support the abolition of Fueros and economic agreements in the event of a constitutional reform.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basque_Economic_Agreement


In other news, PP leader Pablo Casado is asking VOX not to run in small provinces (in terms of seats), in order to prevent a split of the rightwing vote that favours PSOE.

El País: "Spain’s Vox gets nearly €3m in public funds despite tough talk on subsidies"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/13/inenglish/1552465079_939994.html


There is a faction of the CUP that intends to run in the general elections for the Catalan provinces. This decision may provoke a split in the organization, whose traditional policy (endorsed in a recent meeting) is not running in Spanish elections. The CUP is a far-left pro-independence party that advocates the unilateral path for the Catalan Republic. Its deputies in the regional parlament ceased to support the Catalan government, criticizing the excessive "autonomism" of the Torra administration. The CUP was founded as a sum of local candidacies running in local elections throughout Catalonia. It gained a small but loyal voter base on grassroots work. Subsequently in October 2012 the CUP ran its first regional elections, getting 3.5% and winning 3 seats. In the September 2015 elections the CUP more than doubled its share, getting 8.2% and winning 10 seats. The reason of this increase is that many ERC voters disgruntled by the coalition with the right wing nationalists (ERC and CDC ran together in the JxSI ticket) switched to the CUP. By the December 2017 elections the CUP decreased again (4.4% and 4 seats). Much of the CUP voters in regional elections went to En Comú Podem and ERC in the 2015 and 2016 general elections (others presumably abstained).

PP leader Pablo Casado is getting rid of the Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría supporters in the compilation of electoral lists. Former Labour minister Fátima Báñez announced that she quits politics, following other retiring members of the Rajoy administration close to Santamaría. Additionally the former general coordinator of the PP Fernando Martínez Maíllo (the "Rajoy's Fireman") has been ousted from the top position in Zamora province. The cleansing of the rival faction is creating some unrest within the PP ranks. The former ministers who supported María Dolores de Cospedal in the first round of the leadership contest have been rewarded for their support to Casado in the second round.  Former Justice minister Rafael Catalá will top the list in Cuenca and former Agriculture minister Isabel García de Tejerina will run for Valladolid. The star draftee of the Casado's project is Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo, a journalist and former deputy (2008-2015) very close to Aznar who leads the FAES foundation. Álvarez de Toledo replaces current PP parliamentary spokeswoman Dolors Montserrat as the top candidate in Barcelona province, where she will have to compete against the Cs rising star Inés Arrimadas. Aside from her, the profile of the new candidates picked by Casado is not very high. It's clear the PP leader wants a loyal and ideologically homogeneous parliamentary group that doesn't create problems, particularly when electoral results are expected to be bad. A right-wing majority in general elections could save Casado's face, as it happened to Juan Manuel Moreno in Andalusia.

On the other hand Pedro Sánchez is facing a relative opposition from Susana Díaz and other regional 'barons'' in the compilation of the PSOE lists. The Andalusia and Aragon branches are negotiating the lists around the clock with the federal PSOE. Four cabinet members will top provincial lists in Andalusia. There is some conflict in Seville, where the top candidate will be Finance minister María Jesús Montero. Pedro Sánchez wants to place two members of the federal executive loyal to him in the positions 2 and 4: the delegate of the government in Andalusia Alfonso Díaz de Celis and adviser in La Moncloa Francisco Salazar. Given the 'zipper list' system, these nominations would displace a Susana Díaz henchman called Antonio Paradas to the 6th position with very little chances of being elected. Pradas played a starring role in the ousting of Pedro Sánchez from the PSOE leadership, so he is not loved by the PM. The PSOE's federal commission has veto power in the compilation of electoral lists.

Podemos is facing problems in Galicia, where the coalition of the 2015 and 2016 general elections is broken. En Marea will run in its own as a separate party, while the nationalist party Anova decided not to contest the general elections. Deprived of its nationalist partners, Podemos will ally with IU and Equo (presumably under the Unidas Podemos banner). En Marea was founded in November 2015 as a coalition incorporating Podemos, Anova, IU and some municipal alliances (Marea Atlántica, Compostela Oberta and Ferrol en Común) that succeed in the May 2015 elections. The election of a new party leadership in late 2018 led to a split between the supporters of leader Luis Villares and the allied parties (Podemos, Anova, IU). The faction supporting Villares seeks the complete independence of the organization, in order to create a separate parliamentary group in the Spanish Congress. Currently the En Marea deputies are ascribed to the UP parliamentary group (4 out of 5 members voted to pass the 2019 budget and 1 voted against).

A Catalan pro-independence march took place yesterday in Madrid. Attendance figures vary depending on sources: the police says 18k, the organizers 120k and El País mewspaper estimates 55k. The most important thing is that people marched peacefully and the police forces of the oppressive Spanish state prevented incidents with far-right elements. Actually the people of Madrid is quite friendly and hospitable and treated well the Catalans.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/16/madrid-braces-for-major-catalan-independence-march


Here's a sample of the Vox campaign in WhatsApp. The far-right party launched a successful campaign in social networks for the Andalusian elections, targeting particular market niches such as hunters, bullfight lovers, participants in Holy Week processions (cofrades), angry fathers in divorce process...

"Facing with those who only offer fear, the #EspañaViva will show once again that it is not afraid of anything or anyone

On April 28 make history with your vote

This video has to be seen all over Spain! Resend to all your contacts and spread it in your groups of friends and family"

Catalan premier Quim Torra gets 24 hours to remove separatist symbols from public buildings

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/19/inenglish/1552982328_757950.html


Vox leader Santiago Abascal is disappeared fom public forum. This absence is deliberate and is aimed to prevent the candidate's image is eroded. The lack of visibility of the Vox leader contrasts sharply with the feverish activity of the PP leader. Actually the message of Vox is being conveniently amplified by Pablo Casado and it's for free. A prominent Vox member called Iván Espinosa de los Monteros suggested in recent statements that separatist and Marxist parties should be banned. Vox is recruiting as candidates a series of retired generals, as well as former PP members from the radical wing such as former deputy Gil Lázaro.

WhatsApp is very popular in Spain and parties like PP and Vox are turning to it in order to reach a wider audience

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/18/inenglish/1552900378_672737.html


Recruiting former generals and hyperactivity in social networks, while avoiding the public exposition of the candidates, are common points between the Vox and the Bolsonaro campaigns

To go into more detail about the Vox candidates, they've already presented a handful of candidates for Congress.

First of all, the more "normal" candidates. Their top 3 for Madrid seems to be:

1. Santiago Abascal (Party leader and candidate for PM)
2. Javier Ortega Smith (secretary general)
3. Ivan Espionsa de los Monteros (vicesecretary of international relations of the party)

Other candidates include:

-Ignacio Gil Lázaro for Valencia (former PP congressman)
-3 retired generals for Alicante, Castellón and Cádiz.
-Writer Jose María Marco for Senate in Madrid

Not sure when was the last time there were former military members in Congress. Podemos ran Julio Rodríguez (another retired general) last time, but he didn't get a seat.

Last time there was a military minister was all the way back in 1981 with Manuel Gutiérrez Mellado, Deputy Prime Minister (and minister of defense) under Adolfo Suárez.

Worth noting that one of the 3 Vox generals (the one for Cádiz) signed a manifesto publicly defending the figure of Franco and claiming the 1936 coup was justified. Definitely scary stuff that looks out of the 1970s at best.

https://www.canarias7.es/nacional/vox-desvela-sus-primeros-candidatos-para-el-28a-NA6828294
https://elpais.com/politica/2019/03/17/actualidad/1552842527_993443.html

My guesses for other prominent figures of Vox:

-Rocío Monasterio for some sort of Madrid position (either mayor or regional parliament)
-Ignacio Garriga (the infamous "Vox black person", who is half black from Equatorial Guinea) for some sort of Barcelona position (probably Congress). Could see him running for mayor instead though
-Jose Antonio Ortega Lara (high profile ETA victim) either for Congress in Burgos or for regional parliament in Castille-Leon.

However, this all pales in comaprison to Vox's most colourful candidate so far. Fernando Paz, candidate for Congress in Albacete. He has apparently compared homosexuality with a disease, repeatedly praised francoism and denied the Holocaust. He has also taken part in meetings of neonazi parties like Alianza Nacional or Falange.

https://www.ultimahora.es/noticias/nacional/2019/03/19/1066029/candidato-vox-homofobo-negacionista-del-holocausto.html
https://www.larazon.es/espana/fernando-paz-el-polemico-candidato-de-vox-que-ve-la-homosexualidad-como-una-enfermedad-HM22485165

I imagine he will be purged from the party (but not the Francoist general). But still this definitely can't be helping Vox.

This Fernando Paz is indeed very "colorful". I'm somewhat skeptical in what regards your last assumption. I'm pretty sure the Vox folks were fully aware of his "controversial opinions". This guy is not only well known in far right circles, he has intervened in talk shows like El Gato al Agua defending Billy El Niño ("Billy The Kid" a renowned torturer of the Franco's police). My impression is that Vox is deliberately promoting this kind of "politically incorrect" candidates, because they perceive the context is very favourable to be openly and unashamedly extremist. No, I don't think that Vox will purge him. For the sake of precision, Alianza Nacional ("National Alliance") is neo-Nazi, but Falange is... Falangista (or Joseantoniana).

On a more or less related note, there is another allegedly neo-Nazi organization called Hogar Social that now is a political party. Hogar Social began as a sort of charity organization that helps only Spaniards. It gained visibility by occupying some emblematic buildings in Madrid. HS has links with Casa Pound in Italy. Apparently the surge of Vox leaves no room for other far-right party. According to El Confidencial, the dream of the HS leader Melisa Rodríguez is fading

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2019-01-07/el-boom-de-vox-y-el-ocaso-de-hogar-social-madrid-el-lento-final-del-sueno-de-melisa_1741750/

The lovely Vox Gang (left to right): Iván Espinosa de los Monteros, Santiago Abascal, Javier Ortega Smith* and Rocío Monasterio


The statements by Iván Espinosa de los Monteros are very interesting. He regards ïñigo Errejón as "one of the most dangerous foes". He says that behind his nice boy face the Podemos founder hides an "anti-Spanish and radical leftist bile extremely dangerous for our country". He also regards Cs leader Albert Rivera as a leftist that attracts rightwing voters beguiled by his clean and shaved appearance, in contrast to the "dirty" and pony-tailed Pablo Iglesias. He also said something about the "pretty girls" of Cs, likely referring to Inés Arrimadas. He admits having supported PP in the past, but he stopped voting them "as one quits hard drugs". In short: the man is arrogant, contemptuous and sexist. He might not be brilliant from an intellectual point of view, but he is politically incorrect and speaks in direct and forceful sentences ideal for Twitter and WhatsApp. Prestigious journalist Iñaki Gabilondo says that Vox represents the Francoism, something he thought it was left behind. The far-right was always hanging around, but it was hidden and to a great extent contained in the PP That's all in the past, for a number of reasons. Now the genie is out of the bottle: welcome to the Age of Populism.

* Ortega Smith represents the private prosecution in the trial to the Catalan separatist leaders and he is revealing as a pretty incompetent attorney. I would say it's a good thing.

Apparently Abascal today was in Warsaw talking with representatives of PiS and Kaczyński himself. It seems they will probably follow the route of FvD and DLF.

So is the Spanish left realigning, losing its support in various fiefdoms in the south to urban areas and more urban/high cost of living areas?

I would say yes and no. The left is definitely losing its support in the southern fiefdoms, but it's not necesarily gaining in urban areas, but instead areas that aren't fully "culturally Spanish/Castillian"

I didn't publish them here, but I've been doing PVI graphs for all Spanish autonomous communities. And one of the maps I made was a 2000-2016 trend map:

()

Take the map with a huge amount of caution as I included parties like the Basque PNV or the Catalan CiU/PDECat on the right even if they would never support a PP government (especially not now, in 2000 it was a lot more likely)

Also keep in mind that the results in the African cities and the Canary Islands are distorted by unusually strong performances by GIL (in Ceuta/Melilla) or a quite left wing CC in the Canary Islands (led by Román Rodríguez back then, who is clearly a lefty at least now and even split from his former party)

Still, the PVI evolution is striking. Especially the fact that the South has trended a lot more than the North.

Fun fact I got from my graphs: 2016 was the first time Extremadura voted to the right of the nation since 1979. It also saw the worst results ever for the Spanish left in Andalucia, with a PVI of Left+5 (in 2000 it was at Left+24).

If you wonder why the left lost Andalucia, an important part is its march to the right. Since the current national polling average seems to be around Right+8; it's far from weird that Andalucia flipped.

I could share the full Excel sheet or the graphs if you want.

Still, while the left seems to be losing its old fiefdoms, it isn't winning necesarily in urban areas. I would expect small town places like Castellón or Álava to flip well before Madrid does.

Borrowing Atlas terms, it seems the Spanish left is losing its Andalusian #populists <3 while gaining among Barcelona/Valencia Catalan coastal elitists.

Political debate in Spain is not focused on serious issues such as economy, climate change or the future of pensions. These subjects are crucial for the future, but they are too complex to be condensed in a tweet. Instead our leaders prefer launching wars on symbols or foolish proposals, turning the political arena into a circus. Two examples:

Catalan premier Quim Torra is getting everyone tired, including his coalition partners

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/22/inenglish/1553263956_201609.html


Vox leader wants that Spaniards can keep guns at home, alleging they are a "common sense party" that supports the right to self defense. Apparently the rest of parties are not under the influence of the NRA.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/21/inenglish/1553170075_849436.html

I think the map in the previous post shows that Podemos (and its allies in Catalonia, Valencia and Galicia) performed strongly in peripheral regions by 2015 and 2016. Now the Podemos alliances in Valencia and Galicia are broken and En Comú Podem is expected to lose support in Catalonia. Back in 2004 and 2008, the PSOE got extraordinary results in Catalonia and the Basque Country, as well gained ground in Galicia and the Islands..  but there was a PP surge in Valencia by the 2008 election. I think the PSOE will make gains in Catalonia,  but it will be miles away from the  2004-2008 marks. I'd say peripheral regions with vernacular languages (particularly Catalonia and the Basque Country) tend to support the Spanish Left in general elections when there's a perceived threat to their identity posed by the Spanish Right. That was the case in the elections won by Zapatero in 2004 and 2008. The Podemos success in Catalonia could be partly motivated by its stance favorable to a referendum on self determination. On the other hand, I think it's likely the crisis in Catalonia will help to continue the rightward trend in Southern Spain. Anyway there is a lot of volatility that makes the next election outcome very uncertain. It'd be better to wait results in order to see the evolution of geographical trends .

Thing is, 1 election is an outlier, but several elections make a trend.

Even if you did a hypothetical 2000-2011 map (the only election you did not mention), it wouldn't be terribly different from that one for the most part.

I think the movement in Catalonia and the Basque country is not based on the Spanish left performing better, but instead on a nationalist realignment.

Think about this, in 2000, Batasuna was banned and both EA and ERC were very small compared to PNV and CiU. In 2016, ERC is actually larger than PDECat and Bildu is much larger than the old EA.

While the result of the election is very unclear, I think the geographic trends are very clear and will actually accelerate in 2019. I think there will now be a realignment based on the division between a left wing periphery and a right wing centralist Spain.

Honestly the most striking result for me is not the fact that the periphery is moving left and the center/Castillian Spain is moving right, but the north-south division within Castillian Spain.

Places like Cantabria or La Rioja have barely moved at all while Andalucia has moved right very fast. It's not even that "they were conservative already and they had nowhere to go"; as conservative stronghold Murcia was actually the place that moved the furthest right alongside Andalucia (from Right+11 in 2000 to Right+27 in 2016 for a trend of 16 points)

Yesterday I overlooked this. Finally Vox "purged" pseudo-historian Fernando Paz claiming ignorance of his opinions on the Holocaust and homosexuality. According to party sources (a WhatsApp statement made by a certain Manuel Mariscal) Fernando Paz resigned his candidacy. Apparently the reason behind the "purge" is that Vox is trying to establish relations and get economic support from people linked to the right wing of the Republican Party (Iván Espinosa de los Monteros visited the US in previous days) and a candidate supporting the Holocaust denial is not acceptable for them. Also, the Jewish community on Spain showed concern with the candidacy of a person with such lamentable opinions. The size of the Spanish Jewish community is small (around 40k), but it has a good relationship with the country's political and economic right.

However Vox recruited Jorge Cutillas to run for La Rioja. Cutillas is a candidate with good fascist credentials, a former  member of Fuerza Nueva (FN) that later joined other far right parties. Cutillas was accused of the stoning, alongside other FN members, of some buses with 250 Basque schoolchildren that were visiting Madrid in 1982. Cutillas claims that year he was in Ceuta doing military service.

Also, since I was speaking about Spanish electoral geography, I guess I should mention that GAD3 and ABC published a poll where they split their results by province.

They claim they will release full results by autnonomous community for some of them tomorrow or on Monday.

But today they released their poll with maps

()

The map both confirms and dismisses some of the claims I've made about trends. The blocks map clearly shows how Catalonia and the Basque Country are strong left wing areas (then again not surprising as PP has always had problems there). Andalucia is split. It's still a very left wing area even if it's trending right. I guess it's still not enough to get anything other than a tie out of it.

Surprisingly, the Canary Islands vote left! They have always been a right wing stronghold or at worst a tossup. So to see them going left is surprising to say the least.

As for the party map, it's a PSOE landslide. They even win in several places that weren't even won by Felipe González in 1982 (Lugo and Pontevedra in Galicia and Soria in Castille-Leon) despite a much bigger popular vote gap (48-27 compared to what, 31-21 at best here?). Of course back then there was a more marked 2 party system, sort of.

It's true that several elections make a trend, but the fact is that Podemos and En Comú Podem won the last two general general elections in the Basque Country and Catalonia while PP and PSOE fell sharply. On the other hand, the PSOE got a very strong result in the 2008 elections there. In both cases the Spanish Left got some "borrowed" nationalist votes, a tactical support that made possible in 2008 the best historical results for the PSOE in the Basque Country and the second best (after 1982) in Catalonia. The generic left (Spanish and peripheral nationalist) didn't perform well in 2000 and 2011, with the exception of the surge of Amaiur in the Basque Country and Navarre after ETA ceased terrorist activity. In what regards the realignment of the nationalist vote, the situations in Catalonia and the Basque Country are different. While in last general elections ERC surpassed the heirs of Convergència in Catalonia, the PNV remains as the hegemonic force of the Basque nationalism despite the surge of Amaiur (later EH Bildu).

Catalonia

2000: PSC-PSOE 34.4, CiU 28.8, PP  22.8, ERC 5.6, ICV 3.5, EUiA 2.2 (L 45.7 / R 51.6)
2004:  PSC-PSOE 39.4, CiU 20.8, ERC 15.9, PP 15.6, ICV-EUiA 5.6 (L 60.9 / R 36.4)
_{The high unpopularity of the second Aznar adminsitration in Catalonia damaged CiU tangentially and contributed to the spectacular increase of ERC from 1 to 8 seats in Congress.}
2008: PSC-PSOE 45.4, CiU 20.9, PP 16.4, ERC 7.8, ICV-EUiA 4.9, Cs 0.7 (L 58.1 / R 38.5)
2011: CiU 29.3, PSC-PSOE 26.6, PP 20.7, ICV-EUiA 8.1, ERC 7, UPyD 1.1 (L 41.7 / R 51.1)
_{It was the first time since 1977 that PSC-PSOE was not coming in first place}
2015: ECP 24.7, ERC 16, PSC-PSOE 15.7, DiL 15.1, Cs 13, PP 11.1 (L 56.4 / R 39.2)
_{The Podemos alliance with ICV, EUiA and BComú wins the first general elections held after the beginning of the drive to independence in 2012}.
2016: ECP 24.5, ERC 18.1, PSC-PSOE 16.1, CDC 13.9, PP 13.3, Cs 10.9 (L 58.7 / R 41.1)

Basque Country

2000: EAJ-PNV 30.4, PP 28.2, PSOE 23.3, EA 7.5, IU 5.4 (L 36.2 / R 58.6)
2004: EAJ-PNV 33.7, PSOE 27.2, PP 18.9, IU 8.2, EA 6.5, Aralar 3-1 (L 45 / R 52.6)
2008: PSOE 38.4, EAJ-PNV 27.1, PP 18.5, IU 4.5, EA 4.5, Aralar 2.6, UPyD 0.9 (L 50 / R 46.5)
2011: EAJ-PNV 27.4, Amaiur 24.1, PSOE 21.5, PP 17.8, IU 3.7, UPyD 1.8 (L 49.3 / R 47)
_{Amaiur incorporates Sortu (heirs of Batasuna), EA and Aralar. The ban of Batasuna introduced a factor of distortion in previous election results. Notice that PP didn't grow in its best election nationwide.}
2015: Podemos 25.9, EAJ-PNV 24.7, EH Bildu 15, PSOE 13, PP 11.6, Cs 4.1, IU 2.9 (L 56.8 / R 40.4) _{Podemos wins at the expense of the PSOE and EH Bildu}
2016: UP 29, EAJ-PNV 24.9, POE 14.2, EH Bildu 13.3, PP 12.8, Cs 3.5 (L 56.5 / R 37.5)

PSOE winning Barcelona and Tarragona (according to GAD3) means that socialists might win  next general elections in Catalonia. Let's see what say the polls tomorrow...

40dB poll for El País with a seat projection not favourable for the right-wing bloc


If we have to believe what pollsters are telling us, Vox stopped its increase and is standing somewhere between 10% and 12%. However Vox is getting all the media attention and is the most popular party in social networks replacing Podemos. Is the polling industry aware of under the radar movements?

Podemos leader came back tonight in a rally that took place in Madrid. The message conveyed by Pablo Iglesias was, in my biased opinion, contradictory and unconvincing. He intended to be self-critical admitting that internal conflict has been shameful and damaging for Podemos, but on the other hand he continues hurling darts against rivals: "we made mistakes but we have never been on the wrong side" Iglesias made some recriminations to Madrid Mayor Manuela Carmena and demanded her to reveal which party she will support. Carmena said in a recent interview that she voted Podemos in past elections and has decided her vote in the next, but she doesn't want to say it publicly (it wouldn't be surprising that she intends to vote for the PSOE, but she is an independent after all). Carmena's ally and Iglesias' rival Ïñigo Errejón said that he will vote Podemos again, but stated there's too much sectarianism in the party and he feels liberated in his new platform for regional elections. Iglesias attacked the "Trio of Colón" (PP,Cs and Vox) and assumed that Podemos will be part of a coalition with the PSOE if they have the numbers, although hr doesn't rule out a deal between PSOE and Cs despite the promises of Albert Rivera. The Podemos leader states that he doesn't believe the polls, but I'd say there was some depression floating in the air and this is going to be a very difficult campaign for him. Thousands of people attended the rally, but sources say the square next to the Reina Sofía Museum was not filled completely. There are many valuable persons that are no longer in Podemos and they are missed.

The Sonadxe poll for La Voz de Galicia predicts that Vox will come in thir place. The right-wing bloc would win 172 seats, 4 seats short of majority. The Left would win 148 seats, 28 short of a majority. The previous 40dB poll gives a chance for a PSOE-Cs majority, but according to the seat projection in this poll reds and oranges would be 19 seats short.

PSOE 26.9% (113 seats), PP 189% (78), VOX 13.9% (50), Cs 13.8% (44), UP 13.4% (35), Others 7.9% (30)

https://www.lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/elecciones/2019/03/23/vox-tercera-izquierda-baja-derecha-suma/00031553370410907718658.htm

.El Caudillo's long shadow

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/23/franco-ghost-exhumatiob-spain-elections-far-right-vox-party

Finally ABC released the GAD3 poll. Narciso Michavila has good news for PSOE, bad for Cs and terrible for Podemos


The Left (PSOE+UP) gets a combined 42.4% winning 158-161 seats.

The Right (PP, Cs and Vox) gets a combined 46.5%, winning 155-164 seats. The coalition Navarra Suma (UPN, PP and Cs) would win 2 additional seats, but the rightwing bloc would be still short of a majority.

A PSOE-Cs alliance would be 4 to 8 seats short of a majority

Pedro Sánchez would need the support of ERC to win the investiture, alongside the support of UP, PNV and Compromís. With these numbers, the support of JxCAT (CDC) would not be necessary.

Other investiture options might involve someone's abstention in a second vote.  First investiture vote requires absolute majority (176 votes). Second investiture votes requires simple majority (more votes in favour than against).

Why are CC on the right? Couldn't they support a PSOE government?

I wouldn't trust the graphs illustrating opinion polls very much. The last one is not good...

CC is a regionalist party of the Canary Islands. Ideologically the Canary Coalition is on the centre-right, although above all things it's a regional interests party. CC has governed the Canary Islands since 1991: most of the times in coalition with the PP, but occasionally in coalition with the PSOE or forming minority governments. CC made a coalition agreement with the PSOE after the 2015 regional elections, but currently governs in minority with the confidence and supply of the PP and the ASG (PSOE split in La Gomera island). In Madrid CC votes occasionally with PP and PSOE, usually depending on regional interests. Currently the relationship between PSOE and CC (central and regional governments) is not good. The CC deputy Ana Oramas abstained in the no confidence motion against Mariano Rajoy, but initially it was going to vote alongside PP and Cs. Oramas is regarded a good parliamentarian, but her party's support has dropped over the years. CC won 4 seats Congress at its peak, but currently it holds a single member for Santa Cruz de Tenerife.

Could? Absolutely, but it's not the most likely thing in the world.

Relations between CC and PSOE are quite bad since CC kicked out PSOE of the regional government in 2016 (since then CC has led a weak minority government in the islands). CC also dislikes UP a lot. However, CC could support a PSOE government, especially a PSOE-Cs one, but not a PSOE-UP one.

On the other hand, I don't think CC would prop up a PP-Cs-Vox government either.

CC is nominally centrist, but clearly much closer to the right than the left. Still their placement is incorrect on the graph. If we were doing a graph based on ideology, my proposal would be:

Bildu-ERC-UP-PSOE-PDECat-PNV-CC-Cs-Navarra Suma-PP-Vox

Today the preliminary lists for the General election got published. Some of these will drop out by the 2nd of April when election authorities determine whether the required paperwork is in order or not.

I won't cover all 52 provinces, but here is the full list as published by the election authorities:

https://www.boe.es/boe/dias/2019/03/27/pdfs/BOE-A-2019-4492.pdf

For my province of Las Palmas (which is also Velasco's province I think?) the lists we have are (as per usual, lists with a chance at getting seats nationally or just getting an ok result are coloured while minor lists are in black):

Canarian Coalition-Canarian Nationalist Party (CC-PNC)
Citizens-Party of the citizenry (Cs)
New Canaries (NCa)
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)
Canaries Now-Nationalist Alternative and Popular Unity (AHORA CANARIAS)
Communist Party of the Canarian People (PCPE)
Animalist Party against the Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)
For a Fairer World (PUM+J)
United We Can (Podemos-IU-Equo)
People's Party (PP)
Humanist Party (PH)
Zero Cuts-Green Group (Recortes Cero-GV)
Vox (Vox)

So 13 lists in total, albeit only 5 for fringe parties and of those 5, 3 are the kind of party that has a small, but constant niche (Canarian Secessionists, Tankie Communists and the Zero Cuts people) That seems kind of low, with only 2 truly fringe parties (PH and PUM+J). Kind of happy that my signature for the Humanist party didn't go unnoticed though :P

1 month an 1 day for the election and Albert Rivera is proposing a coalition agreement to Pablo Casado, overlooking both parties would need the Vox support. This offer sounds like Rivera is admitting that Cs is going to lose the battle for the hegemony of the Spanish Right. Casado replied that it sounds like a good idea if the Right has the numbers, but maybe it's too late to ensure a rightwing majority in Senate (Cs rejected a PP offer on a joint list). Albert Rivera is nervous because of the bad polling. José Antonio Zarzalejos, who is a former editor of the ABC newspaper and one of the smartest conservative analysts in Spain, warns that Vox is destroying the democratic Right (conservative PP and liberal Cs). In a recent interview to El País in Rome Steve Bannon says that PP and Cs are already speaking the Vox language: this is what the apostle of national-populism calls "take a product to market".

IU membership in Madrid voted against a coalition with Podemos for regional elections, against the wishes of national leader Alberto Garzón. IU Madrid will run with Anticapitalistas (far-left faction of Podemos) in a list called Madrid En Pie, so the alternative left will be splitted in three (Podemos, Más Madrid and the new list). Possibly this ensures a rightwing majority in the regional assembly. "Narcissism of the Small Differences". Headache. 


Yes, I'm resident Las Palmas province. The PCPE folks are the greatest, IMO: they never fail.

José Manuel Villarejo is a retired police superintendent imprisoned since November 2017, charged as the alleged leader of a police mafia. Mr Villarejo admitted today before the National High Court that he had access to the contents of a cellular phone belonging to an aide of Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias. According to the defence lawyer, the corrupt policeman denied any involvement in the theft of said phone that contained personal and political information of Pablo Iglesias. Mr Villarejo tried to Justify having information concerning Pablo Iglesias (it was found in a pen drive when Villarejo was arrested) alleging there was an ongoing police investigation.

By 2016 and shortly after the Podemos irruption in Congress with 69 seats, that is to say in the heyday of the Pablo Iglesias party, the online newspaper OK Diario released a fake news on an alleged police report that said the Iran government financed Pablo Iglesias and people close to him. This writing was called the PISA report (PISA means Pablo Iglesias Limited Company) and its authorship is attributed to a so-called patriotic brigade within the police, during the term of Rajoy's Interior minister Jorge Fernández Díaz, whose alleged leader was Mr Villarejo. Said reports were dismissed by a judge in June 2016, ruling they lacked evidence. The final goal of these reports was apparently to bring Podemos down and prevent a negotiation between the Pablo Iglesias party and the PSOE led by Pedro Sánchez.

Yesterday Pablo Iglesias testified before the Court as injured party. He could not reveal details due to sub iudice rule, but stated his commitment to the truth, justice, institutions, dirt cleansing, etcetera

Regarding Villarejo, I personally think hes best recient report has been the fact that he claims that Morocco and France's secret service did the Madrid bombings.

I have to say, that's a nice change of pace from the usual right wing "ETA did the Madrid bombings and PSOE hid the evidence" conspiracy.

The claim on an alleged involvement of French and Moroccan intelligence (in partnership with ETA) is far from being new. Back in the day people like Federico Jiménez Losantos was airing that nonsense.

...what motive did they suggest the French and Morroccan spooks had in blowing up 200 civilians?

The conspiracy tends to think that when Aznar sided with the US, UK and Poland over France and Germany when the Irak war and in other EU related votes (like the Nice treaty), France was extremely angry and wanted some sort of revenge.

Similarly, Morocco wanted revenge for the "Perejil island war". So they conspirated together to create a terrorist attack on Madrid.

The conspiracy also claims that another motive for the attack was that it would cause a change in government, with PSOE being much more friendly to French and Moroccan interests than PP.

Does it make sense? In my opinion no, but still it's a common conspiracy theory. In fact when Villarejo outed that, Vox and PP started with "11-M truthism", claiming that we don't know the full truth.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/03/11/actualidad/1552335784_713196.html

https://www.twitter.com/Santi_ABASCAL/status/1105000639543869440

New set of polls

Metroscopia / 20 minutos

PSOE 28.7 (116-126), PP 19 (72-78), Cs 16.3 (53-62), UP 14 (35-41), VOX 11.7 (30-37), Others 11.3 (29-31)*

* ERC 14, CDC (JxCAT) 6, PNV 6, EH Bildu 2-4, CC 1

IMOP 7 El Confidencial

PSOE 31 (133), PP 20 (77), Cs 14.9 (53), UP 11.9 (28), VOX 10.1 (27), ERC 3.3 (14), JxCAT 1.3 (4), EAJ-PNV 1.2 (6), EH Bildu 1.1 (3), Compromis 0.7 (3), PACMA 2 (1), CC ? (1)

Celeste-Tel / eldiario.es

PSOE 27 (110-115). PP 22.9 (93-95), Cs 16.7 (56-59), UP 12.1 (31-33), VOX 9.1 (18-20), ERC 2.8 (11-13), JxCAT 1.7 (5), EAJ-PNV 1.2 (6), Compromis 1.6 (4-5), EH Bildu 0.7 (2-3), En Marea 0.7 (3), N+ 0.5 (1), CC 0.3 (1)

After this, I don't think there's any pollster showing a right wing majority in terms of seats. Although all but one pollster do show a right wing victory in the popular vote, generally around 6 points or so.

There was a Vox rally in Barcelona this morning, with the presence of the leading figures of the far-right party. Attendance was estimated at 15k by organizers and only 5k by the local police. Pro-independence and far-left groups, namely the CDR (Committeesfor the Defense of the Republic), called a counter demonstration in protest. The Mossos de Esquadra (regional police) prevented that Vox supporters and pro-independence groups clashed. According to La Vanguardia at least 7 people were arrested in the incidents between the Mossos and the pro-independence protesters. Vox advocates the suppression of regional police, as well as the suspension of regional autonomy, the ban of pro-independence parties and so on.

The most relevant political issue right now concerns the revelations on the dirty war launched by the Villarejo's patriotic brigade against Podemos

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/29/inenglish/1553846581_687820.html


Some bizarre statements made by the son of former PM Adolfo Suárez, who runs in the second position of the PP list for Madrid, raised controversy. Apparently Neanderthals were pro-choice

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/29/inenglish/1553847183_963327.html


This article about the animal welfare PACMA might be interesting for someone

https://www.politico.eu/article/pacma-animal-rights-party-spain-rise-of-the-spanish-vegans/



I think NC Report for La Razón still does. Anyway Francisco Marhuenda is a PP hack.

Given that there's one month left and that's a very long time in modern politics, nothing can be taken for granted. I think the main risk for the PSOE is that Podemos collapses completely, to the point that socialists get isolated in parliament. In case UP resists in the 11-12 pp soil, PSOE is around 30 pp and the right-wing vote remains fragmented, everyhing  is going reasonably well for Sánchez. The worst thing that socialists could do is getting too confident, though

The aquienvoto test for who you should vote for has been updated with questions and parties for 2019.

www.aquienvoto.org

Here are my results:

ERC: 64%
PSOE: 62%
UP: 62%
Bildu: 60%
PNV: 59%
PDECat: 55%
Cs: 49%
PP: 43%
Vox: 30%

Honestly very surprised to see ERC on top and UP tied with PSOE. Everything else as expected though.

UP 84%
PSOE 79%
EH Bildu 78%
ERC 70%
EAJ-PNV 56%
PDeCAT 54%
Cs 44%
PP 28%
VOX 17%

My results:
EAJ-PNV 67,39%
Ciudadanos 58,95%
PDeCAT 56,99%
PSOE 51,58%
ERC 47,37%
PP 45,92%
EH Bildu 45,26%
UP 43,16%
Vox 30,77%

My "spider" compared to EAJ-PNV's
()

Compared to that of Ciudadanos
()

UP 76%
EH Bildu 74%
ERC 73%
PSOE 71%
PDeCAT 65%
EAJ-PNV 62%
Cs 48%
PP 28%
Vox 21%

PSOE 68%
C 66%
UP 55%
PP 43%
Vox 34%

PP: 68
C's: 60
VOX: 56
PSOE: 48
Unidos Podemos: 32

Can't vote anyway, so...

Vox 71%
PP 68%
Cs 52%
PSOE 47%
EAJ-PNV 40%
PDeCat 37%
ERC 33%
UP 30%
EH Bildu 22%

Clearly most aligned with Vox and PP. Differences: Vox is more economically right-wing and more opposed to decentralization/autonomy for separatists than I am (I don't think rolling back already existing types of decentralization will be conducive in any way), which is no surprise. On the other hand I'm apparently even more pro-law and order than them.

()

()

didn't realise I was such a law and order hawk :\

Your "spider web" web is very similar to mine when I took the test yesterday.  I don't think I'm a hawkish person, but I know there's a difference between liberty and libertarianism ;)

I have many coincidences with EH Bildu and ERC, regardless the national question. I'm not hawkish on issues like the implementation of article 155 in Catalonia, which I strongly oppose because I consider undesirable a permanent state of emergency. I recall I had a 100% match with EH Bildu on environmental policies, but only 40% pn decentralization. Maybe the reason is that I voted "neutral" on the indy ref question, mostly because of boredom and bad precedents (Brexit, Colombia plebiscite)  

()
PSOE 70%
Cs 59%
Podemos 56%
PP 53%
PDeCat 53%
ERC 51%
EH Bildu 50%
EAJ-PNV 48%
VOX 44%

EH Bildu 82%
Unidos Podemos 81%
ERC 74%
PSOE 64%
PNV 61%
PDeCAT 58%
Ciudadanos 51%
PP 24%
Vox 17%

Not sure how much got lost in translation, but this seems accurate.

PP 63%
EAJ-PNV 62.7%
PDeCat 58%
ERC 53%
Ciudadanos 52%
PSOE 51%
Podemos 48%
EH Bildu 46%
Vox 37%

What a strange result. I didn't think I'd still end up with PP with all my decentralist answers.

EAJ PNV: 54%
Ciudadanos: 52,3%
PSOE: 50%
PP: 47,8%
Vox: 46,4%
ERC: 45,3%
PDeCat: 44,8%
UP: 42,3%
EH Bildu: 41,4%

CEO* poll

Spanish genereal election in Catalonia (2016 seats in brackets):

ERC 24.5% 15 seats (9)
PSC-PSOE 23.7% 11-13 seats (7)
ECP 15.4% 7-9 seats (12)
 JxCAT 12.1% 5-7 seats ( 8 )
Cs 11.7% 5-6 seats (5)
PP 5.9% 2 seats (6)
FR** 2.5% 0-1 seat
Vox does not appear

Parliament of Catalonia (2017 seats in brackets)

ERC 40-43 (32)
Cs 28-29 (36)
JxCAT 22-24 (34)
PSC 21-23 (17)
CatComú-Podem 8-9 ( 8 )
CUP 8 (4)
PP 3-4 (4)

* CEO is a sociological institute depending on the Catalan government, the equivalent to the Spanish CIS

** Front Republicá ("Republican Front") is a far-left separatist coalition that incorporates a faction of the CUP. The top candidate for Barcelona is Albano Dante Fachín, a former leader of Podemos in Catalonia born in Argentina. The candidate of En Comú Podem (ECP) for Barcelona is Jaume Asens, a philosopher and political scientist who is councilor in the Barcelona City Hall. This candidacy raised some opposition within Podemos because Asens is pro-independence.

The other top candidates running for Barcelona province are:

Oriol Junqueras: ERC leader and fromer deputy premier, who is being tried before the Supreme Court

Public Administrations minister Meritxell Batet for the PSC-PSOE

Former leader of the pro-independence organization ANC (Catalan National Assembly) Jordi Sánchez for JxCAT. He is in preventive detention and being tried like the ERC leader.

Opposition leader in the Parliament of Catalonia and Cs national spokeswoman Inés Arrimadas

Journalist and historian Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo for the PP, a hardliner against separatism

Previous general election polls in Catalonia predict a tight ERC-PSC contest

Recently Pedro Sánchez compared the Catalan secessionist bid with Brexit, arguing that both are based on lies

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/03/spanish-pm-pedro-sanchez-brexit-catalan-independence-bid-both-based-on-lies


 

The PSOE electoral slogan was presented this week. Its translation is "Make It Happen" ("Haz Que Pase") and apparently is inspired in a scene of the film Titanic, or at least that's what the Govt spokeswoman told to the press. The message it tries to convey is that people can make possible a better Spain by turning out and voting for the socialists. However, the double meaning of the sentence and the Titanic reference were ammunition for the PP. The campaign of the conservative party replied with comparisons between the government and the Titanvic sinking and sentences in the style of "haz que se pase pronto", whose translation could be "make the government to pass quickly"

It's been almost 3 years since the 2016 general election, but El País has published a map of results and turnout by precinct for the 2016 general election.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/03/28/actualidad/1553783809_455746.html

Really interesting map tbh, I only wish we had an option to show the party results directly as well, but extremely interesting nontheless.

3 new polls tonight:

GAD3 for ABC

PSOE 31% (138)
PP 21% (88)
Cs 15% (48)
UP 12% (29)
Vox 10% (17)

ERC 13
PNV 6
JxCat 5
N+ 2
Bildu 2
CC 1
Compromis 1

Right wing bloc: 46% (155 including N+)
Left wing bloc: 43% (167)
PSOE+Cs: 46% (186)

GESOP for El Periódico de Catalunya

PSOE 30% (130)
PP 21% (86)
Cs 15% (49)
UP 12% (31)
Vox 11% (22)

ERC 14
JxCat 5
(other nationalists unespecified)

Right wing bloc: 46% (157)
Left wing bloc: 42% (161)
PSOE+Cs: 44% (179)

NC Report for La Razón

PSOE 27% (110)
PP 24% (100)
Cs 16% (56)
UP 12% (30)
Vox 9% (21)

ERC 12
PNV 6
JxCat 5
Compromís 5
N+ 2
Bildu 2
En Marea 2
CC 1

Right wing bloc: 50% (178 including NS+)
Left wing bloc: 39% (140)
PSOE+Cs: 43% (166)

NC Report is the only one still giving the right a majority, though still all give the right very healthy leads in the popular vote. Of course because of vote splitting and the fact that no nationalist parties will make deals with PP-Cs-Vox, they don't just need to win, they need to win a landslide to get an overall majority, which seems hard.

2 of the 3 polls give a hypothetical PSOE+Cs government a majority. While ruled out by Cs, I think it's a very likely possibility. Even if they fall short by a handful of seats, I wouldn't completely rule out a PNV abstention or support by CC or N+

Finally, a PSOE+UP+nationalist government is possible in 2 polls as well, but I wouldn't trust that government to happen unless Sánchez gives Catalonia a referendum (not happening) or they win big enough that PNV support would be enough on its own. Maaaybe ERC could abstain, but I wouldn't trust that at all.

If the right doesn't get a majority, and neither Cs nor the Catalans give up, then we will see repeat elections.

Why is the right losing support?

Will Bildu be more likely to support a Sanchez government than the Catalan nationalists?

The GAD3 and the GESOP polls indicate a level of support similar to the 2016 elections (PP+Cs 46%, PSOE+UP 43%), so the right is not losing much support. The problem for the right is that now it's splitted in three and the electoral system penalizes dispersion. Leaving aside some centre-left voters returning to PSOE over the Cs turn to the right, according to pollsters  most of the vote transfers are taking place within blocs. Cs boosted past year taking advantage of the PP collapse, as it was the natural choice for voters right of the centre disgruntled over the crisis in Catalonia or the corruption scandals. Now many voters are switching from Cs to Vox, attracted either by radicalism or by novelty. Polls say that Vox has slowed its growth, but there can be no assurance with this party. Apparently the PP has stopped falling and is stable on a 20-21 pp soil. Another factor to take into account is the mobilization of left-wing voters, becasue they are more prone to abstain if they feel disappointed. In the 2016 elections UP lost 1 million of voters in comparison with the Podemos and IU results in 2015 and the correlation between blocs was reversed (PSOE+Podemos+IU got 46% in 2015, PP+Cs got below 43%). It seems the fear of Vox might help to mobilize the left, but that's uncertain. Also, there is a sizeable amount of undecided voters that will make their decision in the final days. The last campaign days after Easter holidays will be decisive.


No. EH Bildu voted the no confidence motion against Rajoy, but later rejected any type of cooperation with the PSOE government. The Bildu folks are at the very least as radically pro-independence as the Puigdemont supporters. Anyway the correlation of forces makes EH Bildu much less relevant than the PNV and the Catalan nationalists.

The debate over euthanasia has been dominating the news cycle for the past few days. The cause of this is the assisted suicide performed by Ángel Hernández on his wife María José Carrasco, who was suffering from multiple sclerosis and had asked her husband multiple times to help her commit suicide in order to end the pain she was suffering. During the last days before the event Ángel recorded multiple videos in which he mantains conversations with his wife about her situation and her wishes, and in the last two videos he asks her wether she is ready to die (she says the sooner the better) and finally Ángel helps her ingest potassium chloride, effectively killing her. He immediatly turned himself in to the police and spent the night in jail, but he was released the next day without charges.
PM Sánchez later said in an interview in Telecinco that he was 'overwhelmed' by the images and he promised to regulate euthanasia if he's re-elected, while at the same time he criticised parliamentary obstructionism on the issue by C's and PP.
UP is following more or less the same line as PSOE.
C's has performed a flip-flop of sorts. The party now says it wants a cross-party consensus to legalize assisted suicide but on very limited circumstances, even though they blocked the grand total of 19 times a bill proposed by the government that would've have allowed the practice.
Meanwhile PP and Vox say they remain diametrically opposed to euthanasia and have supported palliative care instead.
Polls say that over 80% of Spaniards are in favor of euthanasia. The unexpected entrance of euthanasia in the public debate a few weeks before an election that was supposed to be about Catalonia and Spanish unity seems to be very good news for the left, which is being very successful in setting the tone of the campaign.

Actually, I do believe EH Bildu would be more likely to support a Sánchez government than the Catalans (especially than JxCat, who seems very radicalized and almost as gone as CUP. You know things are bad when ERC, the tradicinally hardcore independence party are now the moderates).

While Bildu is just as radically-pro independence as the Catalans, their rethoric is a lot more concilliatory. In a way, they remind me of ERC circa 2004; which did support Zapatero's first government. They clearly want to be decisive in Sánchez's government judging from some of Otegui's remarks.

The main issue in my opinion with Bildu is not the fact that they are pro-independence, but instead their very clear ties to ETA.

The image of PSOE being propped up by the same guys who 10 years ago cheered whenever a Socialist councillor was murdered by ETA would be a very hard one to swallow, even more so than doing deals with the Catalans.


I think it is basically Cs supporters moving towards PSOE because of their sharp turn to the right and the new appeareance of Vox. We have gone from 50-40 style results to 47-43.

As I said earlier, because of vote splitting and the fact that the right can't be propped up by any nationalist parties (except maaybe CC and even that one would be unclear), they don't just need to win; they need to win big.

A good example of how this election might turn out could be a "reverse 1996". In 1996 the left (PSOE+IU) very clearly beat the right (PP) 48-39. However because of vote splitting, PSOE+IU didn't have a majority and Aznar was able to get in government propped up by nationalists.

How does vote splitting affect the result? Is it because there are three competitive parties on the right and only two on the left?

Yes, pretty much. Plus the fact that PSOE is ahead and the fact that UP seems to be holding around 13% so it gets penalized less than Vox (but more than Cs). Of course there's also a chance that polls are wrong and Vox gets less penalized than we expect.

It seems that for the most part it will be small provinces with a handful of seats that will decide the results. And in those provinces very small even swings can have dramatic effects. Here's an article explaining it, with a diagram:

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/03/02/actualidad/1551556252_287887.html

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This is an estimate of how many seats in small provinces (between 1 and 5 seats; which count up to 99 seats in total) each party would get depending on their national vote.

As you can see, small increases or decreases in the popular vote nationally mean very large swings.

CIS mega-survey released today. Even though the vote estimation is controversial, there is a lot of interesting data. The sample size is massive and there are seat projections for every province, which must be taken with a grain of salt but give some clues on a number of issues (for instance, the geographical distribution of the Vox support)

Provinces where Vox has chances of winning seats. The result in Barcelona could be a shock


Catalonia: ERC landslide, PSC resurrection, En Comú Podem and JxCAT lose ground, mediocre results for Cs, Vox amazement, PP on the verge of extinction and PACMA could get in


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Why the Vox strength in the Comunitat Valencia? The Catalan link?

Vox is a new party and its strength by regions is yet unknown. However, Vox is mostly a split of the PP and the vote patterns in the Andalusian elections suggest the far right party is stronger in the places where PP is traditionally strong. Extrapolating to the rest of Spain, most of the analyses and predictions point that Vox has better chances in regions that lean PP in general elections like Madrid, Valencia or Murcia. On the opposite side, Vox is expected to perform poorly in peripheral regions with proper language like Basque Country and Navarre, as well in Catalonia and Galicia (despite the latter is a traditional PP stronghold). So according to these expectations, Vox winning 3 seats in Barcelona would be a shocking result. Notice that Vox does not appear in the results of the CEO poll that I posted before. One of these two is going to be wrong. 

 The link between Catalonia and Valencia is complex. The Valencian region has a proper language that is a variation of the Catalan language, although there are Castilian speaking areas within the region (inland and southern sections). These linguistic zones are usually related to colonization in the Middle Ages after the Reconquista, either with Catalan or Aragonese settlers. There are two opposing political traditions in Valencia, one is Catalan-friendly and the other is fiercely anti-Catalan (Blaverism). Compromís could be an example of regionalist party of the first tradition and the historical Unió Valenciana of the second (UV formed electoral alliance and later merged with the PP). The Catalan nationalists ERC and the CUP have branches in Valencia, but they are rather marginal. Obviously Vox could garner a strong support among the anti-Catalan sector of the population.

Honestly, if we have to take the CIS poll at large with a bit of caution, the province/regional crosstabs should be taken with a ton of caution. Valencia is not the worst offender, IMO Barcelona would be (no way Vox is that high in Barcelona, even with an abysmal PP candidate)

If we are trying to analyze Vox's impact in Valencia, I would instead look at polls for the regional election which takes place the same day. Last poll (from late March) seems to point out this:

PSOE: 29%
PP: 22%
Cs: 15%
Compromís: 14%
Vox: 7%
UP: 6%

Granted, this is not a particularly great indicator as there will be quite a bit of split ticket voting; particularly for Compromís, but I could also see it happening with Vox.

I actually think Vox will slightly underperform or perform roughly on par with their national results in Valencia.

They might get plenty of seats though, since both Valencia and Alicante have quite a bit of seats (15 and 12 respectively). I could easily see Vox getting 2 in each province.

Frankenstein, ETA and the eight-headed serpent: the verbal aggression of Pablo Casado might be an act of desperation

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/09/inenglish/1554792934_759961.html



I think Vox will win seats in Barcelona. Maybe 1 or 2 instead of 3, I don't know. The relative success of PxC (Platform for Catalonia) in some local elections years ago suggests there's some ground for a xenophobic far-right party that advocates a radical Spanish nationalism, especially in the Metropolitan region of Barcelona. The CEO poll must be wrong

  So in some of the 3 and 4 seat districts it would make sense for Vox and UP voters to vote tactically for either the PP or PSOE, if they want to help the bigger party closer to them on the ideology scale and when their party has a low chance to win one of the seats. Has tactical voting like this occured in recent Spanish elections?

Oh, absolutely. Before 2015 tactical voting was extremely common among IU voters, often voting PSOE as the lesser evil. 2008 being the greatest example

Today the CIS released a poll for the Valencian regional elections taking place on the same date as the general elections. The PSPV-PSOE led by premier Ximo Puig appears as the clear winner


GAD3 conducted a poll for Las Provincias local newspaper (March 31) with the following estimation:

PSPV-PSOE 28.8% (33), PP 22.4% (24), Cs 14.6% (15), Compromís 14.4% (13-14), VOX 7.1% (7-8), UP 6.7% (5-7)

I'd say PP is too low in the CIS poll and VOX is too low in both

and there is no way that cs will be that high in valencia

Actually, Cs' number seems alright.

However, the poll taken at large is complete junk. Their general election poll was surprisingly reasonable, but there's no way the left wins a landslide this big in Valencia.

Valencia is still, at best, a community roughly around the national average; and all election polls are predicting a right wing victory in the popular vote; and vote splitting won't hurt the right all that much in the regional election compared to the national election (Remember even Castellón gives out 24 seats in the regional election; compared to 5 in the national one)

Yes, there will be split ticket voting, especially regarding Compromís, and that split ticket voting will help the left, but the Valencian election is no better than a tossup for the left, and I'm even tempted to give PP a small advantage.

Anyways, my ratings for the 28th of April elections since the campaign will start tonight at midnight:

General election (largest party): Likely PSOE
General election (largest bloc, popular vote): Likely right wing bloc
General election (largest bloc, seats): Lean right wing bloc

General election (most likely government): Lean new election (if we get a government, it's lean PSOE-Cs)

Valencian election (largest party): Likely PSOE
Valencian election (likeliest government): Tossup

Also, we have now confirmed that there will be a single main debate during the campaign. All 5 main party leaders (Sánchez, Casado, Rivera, Iglesias and Abascal) will be invited and have confirmed they will go.

The debate will be hosted by private broadcaster Atresmedia, the ones in charge of the main 4-way 2015 debate as well.

There was also an offer to do a 4 way debate (without Vox) on the public broadcaster TVE, but Sánchez allegedly refused. The thing about TVE is that they have to be (even more) impartial than private broadcasters, so they were only allowed to invite parties with seats in Congress.

Of course, there will be more debates, generally with smaller parties and surrogates for the main ones. For example in 2016 we got a "women's debate" (Andrea Levy vs Margarita Robles  vs Carolina Bescansa vs Inés Arrimadas) and an "economic debate" (Luis de Guindos, Jordi Sevilla, Alberto Garzón and Luis Garicano). Both also done by Atresmedia.

I think the left has a chance to retain majority in Valencia, better than some might expect. The coalition government between PSOE and Compromís has been pretty stable and reasonably efficient, to the point that some people compare the regional political situation with Portugal. The current government came after a long period of PP in power with crushing majorities, whose turbulent final period was marked by massive corruption scandals. Valencia became synonymous with cronyism, squandering and wrongdoing  3 of 4 PP premiers are charged in legal proceedings: Francisco Camps, José Luis Olivas and Eduardo Zaplana. The latter has been already 8 months in prison and is accused of hiding 20 millions abroad... The contrast with the present period is so brutal that I'd be surprised if voters forget so fast. Anyway I concur the result is likely to be tight in what regards the balance between left and the rightwing blocs. The actual Vox support is yet unknown and could make the difference as in Andalusia, but I doubt the turnout will be so depressed in the left to create a similar shock.

Just as a reminder, the previous regional election was a landslide for the left. The parties left of the centre (PSOE, Compromís, Podem and EUPV) got 55% of the vote, while the parties right of the centre (PP, Cs and UPyD) got around 40%. PACMA (0.8%) and Vox (0.4%) were under radar.

However the right performed better in general elections. In 2015 the left (Compromís-Podem, PSOE, EUPV-IU) got 49% of the vote and the right (PP, Cs) 47%. In 2016 the left (Compromis-Podem-EUPV, PSOE) got 46% and the right (PP, Cs) got 50%.

 PACMA got 1.3% in 2016 and now the CIS says the animal rights party has chances of winning a seat for Valencia in the next general election. Winning a seat in that province requires approx 5% of the vote. The PACMA seat for Barcelona seems to be easier to win, given that it requires to get 3% and the PACMA already got 1.8% in 2016.

The party just released a well crafted campaign video. The PACMA "Re-Evolution" begins to fight against the Vox "Involution"

https://pacma.es/videos/empieza-la-reevolucion/

Tonight the campaign started officially. From now on there are 15 days left for Spaniards to decide if they want Frankenstein (PSOE, UP and peripheral nationalists), the Colón Triumvirate (PP, Cs and Vox) or a repetition of elections. Isn't it an exciting perspective?

Divide and conquer: the strategy of Pedro Sánchez

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/12/inenglish/1555052464_524300.html


This is going to be a weird campaign. Vox leader Santiago Abascal started his triumfal tour in Covadonga, which is an appropriate choice because that location in Asturias is the site of the inaugural battle of the Reconquista, or at least that's what the national mythology says (likely the Battle of Covadonga was just a skirmish).¡Santiago y Cierra España! The campaign will coincide with the Easter holidays; the colorful Holy Week processions will take place in Andalusia as usual. The three leaders pf the Spanish Right announced their presence in the Cristo de la Buena Muerte ("Christ of the Good Death") procession taking place in Málaga, but the organizers (a confraternity called Cofradía de Mena) have requested them not to go in order to prevent the vent turns nto a campaign act. This is true Spanish folklore: the wooden sculpture of the Christ id ¡s carried on the shoulders of the brave legionaires. The Spanish Legion is a military unit made in the likeness of its French counterpart and is very linked historically to the colonial wars in Northern Morocco (Rif), the Spanish Civil War and Franco. Currently the Legión is an elite unit that takes part in UN missions abroad.

El País average polling: PSOE 29.3%, PP 19.9%, Cs 15.5%, UP 13.6%, Vox 10.7%  

Podcast in English

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/03/inenglish/1554292100_462357.html

GAD3 for ABC

PSOE 30.9% (135-137). PP 21.3% ( 85-91), Cs 13.5% (43-46), UP 12% (29-30), Vox 11.2% (25-29), ERC (12-13), EAJ-PNV (6), JxCAT (4-5), EH Bildu (2), NA+ (2), Compromís (1), CC (1)

Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es

PSOE 27.3% (112-117), PP 23.9% (99-102), Cs 15.9% (51-56), UP 13.1% (32-37), Vox 7.8% 812-14), ERC 2.8% (12-13), EAJ-PNV 1.2% (6), JxCAT 1.6% (5), Compromís 1.5% (4-5), Eh Bildu 0.8% (2-3), En Marea 0.5% (3), NA+ 0.5% (1), CC 0.3% (1), PACMA 1.5% (0)

Honestly, I thinks is very hard to understand the stability of Compromís, I mean, the coalition covers a broad range of movements with different views on Valencian identity (well, not blaverism), from strong Valencianism to people who want to establish the Catalan Countries. I think it is great, but also is weird in a country like Spain, where the left tends to implode and ends divided.

Also I think the Valencian Community (or Pais Valencia) is the place (with Murcia) where Cs and Vox can do really well. Both are communities with historically strong provincial PPs that governed alone for many years but now are with notorious signs of exhaustion (the case of PP in Valencia is really crazy). Right wing people in those communities now have real options. I think Cs can also exploit the language card in Valencia with some success.

Compromís is indeed a strange coalition of Valencian regionalists (BNV or Bloc is the main partner) with some former IU members integrated in the party of Mónica Oltra (the ecosocialist IdPV). I think the main reasons that cement Compromís are electoral success and the charisma and leadership of Mónica Oltra. The Valencian Nationalist Bloc amalgamates several parties and it has a remarkable territorial implementation in the Valencian-speaking countryside, but it's weak in the most populous urban centres. The Bloc failed to win regional seats in 2003 due to the 5% threshold ruling in Valencia (it got 4.7%). In the following election the Bloc shifted to the left and established an alliance with EUPV (the regional branch of IU). This coalition was called Compromís PV ("Commitment for the Valencian Country") and proved rather unsuccessful (CPV got 8% in 2007, while EUPV and Bloc got a combined 10.8% in the previous election). The bad electoral result worsened a relationship between coalition partners that was pretty awkward already. Eventually an internal rift within the EUPV led to the split of Mónica Oltra, Joan Ribó and other EUPV members that established a new party in the likeness of the Catalan ICV (the ecosocialist IdPV). Oltra and her party kept the alliance with the Bloc, while the 'orthodox' faction of the EUPV followed its own path. Oddly enough the reshaped Compromís and EUPV were successful in the 2011 elections, as both parties managed to be above threshold (Compromís 7.2%, EUPV 5.9%). The new Compromís was initially led by the Bloc leader Enric Morera, with Mónica Oltra as deputy leader and parliamentary spokeswoman. However Oltra was always the most charismatic figure of the coalition: she came out as a tenacious and combative parliamentarian, very vocal against the corrupt administration of Francisco Camps. Her popularity and appeal among the young voters living in the cities contributed decisively to the success of Compromís. Enric Morera, on the other hand, is calm and measured so his personality is  in some respect complementary to that of Oltra. I'd say the success of Compromís is due to a rare balance between its heterogeneous components, both personal and organizational. On a side note, Compromís has parted ways with Podemos recently Oltra is in good terms with the former second-in-line Íñigo Errejón...


Yes, both Cs and Vox have good chances there. In the case of Valencia the anti-Catalan factor has been always a strong electoral card for the rightwing parties. The profile of the Cs candidate Toni Cantó is clearly anti-Catalan and "hardline liberal", in contrast with the social-liberal and environmentalist credentials of the 2015 candidate Carolina Punset. The latter is daughter of the popular science commentator and former UCD member Eduardo Punset and left Cs due to ideological differences, complaining the party abandoned it's alleged initial social-liberal orientation. 

This article about the battle for the "Emptied Spain" is worth reading, particularly because it's a key feature of the upcoming general election

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-battle-for-spains-empty-center/

GAD3 poll for La Vanguardia


It's good news for the PSOE, although the pollster warns there's a high degree of uncertainty because 26% of voters could switch to other parties and change the result.

Vote share: PSOE 31.1, PP 21 (including NA+), Cs 14.4, UP 11.4, Vox 11.2, ERC 3.6, PACMA 1.4, EAJ-PNV 1.2, JxCAT 1.2, EH Bildu 0.7, Compromís 0.5, CC 0.3, Front Republicá 0.2

Right 46.6% 151-161 seats
Left 42.5% 164-169 seats
PSOE+Cs 45.5% 181-185 seats

Velasco,
Could you tell us which small parties, from the least likely to the most mikely, could support a PSOE-Podemos government?
Thanks!

I think it's pretty clear, as of now, that PSOE will win with around the same % PP got in 2016, 33%. It will be interesting to see what happens in PP/C's after the elections, and if the results are what polls predict. Will Casado be kicked out of the PP leadership and Soraya makes a comeback? And C's? Will they eat their words and form an agreement with PSOE, or will there be a "refoundation" of the Spanish right like in the late 80's with a merge of PP and C's, if that's even possible.

Also, curiously, and for now, the Spanish elections are receiving almost zero coverage from the Portuguese media. Interesting, but that may change in the next few days, i assume.

Sondaxe poll for Voz de Galicia newspaper: (https://www.lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/elecciones/2019/04/13/pp-mantiene-bastion-galicia-pese-caida-prevista-espana/00031555179726778130709.htm)

32.9% PP, 10 seats (-2)
29.7% PSOE, 10 (+4)
11.5% C's, 1 (+1)
10.9% UP, 2 (-3)
  4.9% Vox, 0
  4.4% BNG, 0
  2.4% En Marea, 0
  3.3% Others

If PP loses Galicia... Yikes.

I guess you mean regionalist parties.

Traditional PP allies like UPN (Navarre) and Foro (Asturias) will never support it for obvious reasons. The Canary Coalition (CC) will never support a government including Podemos and is currently in bad terms with the PSOE. JxCAT is  dominated by Puigdemont supporters and won't back it, unless Pedro Sánchez is willing to make concessions on self-determination (extremely unlikely). I guess EH Bildu wouldn't support it for the same reasons, regardless there's more ideological proximity. ERC is currently in a more pragmatic stance than JxCAT in what regards the path to Catalan independence; it's possible that ERC leadership would want to back a PSOE-led government, but it would face pressure from pro-independence grassroots if there are no concessions on the part of Sánchez. The PNV has less ideological proximity to the Spanish Left than ERC and Bildu,  but its approach is far more pragmatic and the Basque nationalists want to prevent that Cs touches power (either in a rightwing coalition or with the PSOE). Finally Compromis (Valencia) would support a PSOE-Podemos government in all likelihood.


The polls are favourable for Pedro Sánchez, but getting too confident is the worst thing socialists can do and I guess they are fully aware of that after Andalusia. The PSOE seems to be engaged in a catch all strategy and the socialists are apparently successful in regaining voters from Podemos and Cs. Additionally polls say they are attracting a cross-generational support and that's very positive for them. However that base of support is far from being consolidated. There is a high proportion of undecided voters that could decide the election one way or another, depending on which side they go in the final days.  Moreover the rightwing vote is splitted and this favours Sánchez,  but it's also very motivated to show up on election day. Mobilizing the leftwing vote is key, not only for the PSOE but to prevent the UP collapse. Will the fear of Vox be enough to make lefties go to the polls?

I don't foresee a Soraya comeback. Possibly the natural candidate to replace Pablo Casado in case of crushing defeat is Alberto Núñez Feijoó. Casado is far from being consolidated in leadership, but there are too many people in the PP disliking Santamaría. The Galician premier is the only consensus figure that could unite the party.

In the case of Cs the problem is that Rivera left all his eggs in the basket of the Colón Trio. A PSOE-Cs coalition would be the preferred option for the European Commission and pretty much by the business world and everything related to establishment. It's not easy to eat your own words when they are so weighty. Additionally the decision to place Inés Arrimadas as candidate for Barcelona might reveal a bad idea if she is not able to improve the orange performance in that key province. Prospects are not particularly favourable. Arrimadas is the obvious replacement for Rivera. I still think she's a valuable politician, but her showing after the last electoral success in Catalonia has been rather disappointing IMO.

The PSOE unveiled its "low key" platform in a campaign act that took place in Leganés, a working class located south of Madrid. Pedro Sánchez promised  a constitutional reform to "shield" pensions before an aged audience gathered in a senior centre. Recently the economic guru Daniel Lacalle, who is a staunch neoliberal and runs in the PP list for Madrid, made a campaign gaffe as he suggested a drastic reduction in pensions to maje the state system "sustainable". Later Lacalle claimed he was misunderstood, in a similar way that Pablo Casado charges against the press when he makes gaffes or controversial statements. Lacalle is promising a "fiscal revolution" with massive tax reductions that "will save 705 Euros to the average taxpayer" (and presumably a much larger amount to the richest taxpayers). On the other hand, Pablo Casado announced on Monday that he will apply the Political Parties Law to those organizing "escraches" ("escrache" is an Argentinian word that means "exposure protest" that may be synonym with "bullying" or "harassment"). Rightwing candidates and leaders Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo, Albert Rivera and Santiago Abascal have faced "escraches" from radical pro-independence supporters in Catalonia and the Basque Country.

Brief summary of proposals to tackle some of the country's main problems: five parties, two models

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/15/inenglish/1555313118_338133.html

Catalan crisis: PP, Cs and Vox promise to apply Article 155 and introduce direct rule, regardless the dubious constitutionality of such measure. PP is promising to intervene on subjects ranging from education to media outlets; Cs would ask the Catalan premier to comply with the Constitution and intervene in case of negative answer; Vox would rather suppress regional autonomy.

 The PSOE is trying to overlook the Catalan conundrum during the campaign. Its proposal is strengthening self-government and opposing both direct rule and independence referendum.

Podemos supports a negotiated referendum in which they'll support that Catalonia remains with an improved self-rule.

Gender issues: Vox advocates the repeal of the legislation against gender based violence. but PP and Cs defend it and want to address issues like the salary gap. PSOE and Podemos seek to strengthen LGTBI rights. The purple party wants to achieve gender parity in institutions like the Cabinet (I thought that was achieved already) or the Supreme Court within a 4 year period. as well as reform criminal legislation to protect victims of sexual assault (the case known as La Manada raised a lot of indignation).

Taxes: Leftist parties want that highest earners, big comapnies and banks pay more taxes. The PSOE announced new taxes on financial transactions and digital services, as well as a higher income tax rate for the wealthy.

The PP promises to cut the highest tax rate from 45% to 40%, bringing corporate tax below 20%, eliminating inheritance tax, estate tax, etcetera. Cs would reduce highest tax rate to 44%, act against corporate tax deductions and eliminate inheritance tax. Vox advocates massive tax reductions.

Pensions: Vague pledges for "reform" to achieve "sustainability". Vox would likely demolish the state system.

Employment: The right supports measures that reduce of workers' rights and make firing cheaper. The PP wants to go further the 2012 reform in order to continue the "progress on market flexibility", while the left wants to repeal part of this legislation to reinforce workers' rights and tackle job insecurity.

Nearly every party promises to improve the situation of the  workers through tax breaks and subsidies. Cs in particular always claims to be the party that best defends their insterests. There's some consensus on making paternity and maternity leaves equal.

Immigration: PP wants to fight smugglers and reinforce the southern borders, expand international treaties for repatriation of irregulars. All Venezuelan would be granted residency permits. The PSOE supports orderly immigration" and "maximum respect for human rights". Podemos seeks the abolition of immigrant holding centers (CIE), issue "humanitarian visas" and facilitate family reunification. Cox wants to deport all illegal immigrants, as well as legal immigrants who have committed a crime. Also, Cox wants to build an "insurmountable wall" to protect Ceuta and Melilla from the hordes coming from Africa. The last proposal has a clear resemblance with that of Donald Trump for the Mexican border. 

Even though Cs has vowed not to form a coalition with PSOE, their stances on Catalonia and gender issues are surprisingly compatible.

Sub-national polling is not always reliable, but anyway Sondaxe is already placing PSOE ahead of the PP in Galicia.

There is a compilation of polls at sub-national level in the Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-national_opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Spanish_general_election

Also, the opinion polling for the upcoming Valencian regional elections is favourable for the leftwing parties. The three last polls appearing in the Wiki page (NC Report, 40dB and Invest Group) estimate a majority for PSOE, Compromís and UP.

In my opinion there are some pollsters that deserve more credit than others. Regardless, I think that all the opinion polls must be taken with some grains of salt. The Vox factor is very difficult to measure. Nobody knows of the Vox support will peak in the final days, with thousands of angry conservatives and abstentionists showing up for the far right party, or it will deflate. Next week the Vox leader Santiago Abascal will confront the rest of leaders in the TV debate. I don't expect a great performance by the far right leader, because he's not a good speaker and lacks intellect or human qualities. But these times are very strange. so we'll see.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/14/spain-vox-party-on-course-to-break-into-mainstream-politics

Do you really think so? PSOE supports more self-government for Catalonia and dialogue with separatists, while Cs spokepersons say they have nothing to talk with them. In what regards gender issues, Cs supports surrogacy and the legalization of prostitution. PSOE opposes firmly to surrogacy and its stance on prostitution leans to abolition.

Fair. I was trying to keep my hope high for a PSOE-based coalition I guess 😶

The fact that PSOE and Cs have serious differences doesn't imply the impossibility to reach agreements in the future. Actually a PSOE-Cs agreement would please many factual powers and they will certainly push for it, providing that numbers fit. However the hardline stance against dialogue on the part of Cs is a serious obstacle, regardless both parties concur in their opposition to a referendum on self-determination in Catalonia. Also, the federalism advocated by the PSOE clashes with  the Cs centralist leanings. Not to mention Rivera's promises and his harsh words against Sánchez. However, Rivera promised in 2015 and 2016 that he would never deal with Sánchez and Rajoy. Everybody knows he did in both cases. Moreover, one of the main traits of Pedro Sánchez is his flexibility, something that can be intrepreted in a positive or a negative light. Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias is warning against the possibility of a PDOE-Cs deal. Obviously that's a campaign argument with the purpose of retaining leftwing voters susceptible to flee to PSOE. Iglesias is also seeking a result that makes the seats won by UP necessary for government formation...

My preliminary estimate is that VOX should get 13.5 to 15% in the election.

Also: it seems as if VOX will not appear in any debate because of their 0.2% or something they received in the 2016 election and therefore no seats in parliament.

Spanish election law article 66.2 says that only parties getting more than 5% in the last election can take part in debates and I guess this also applies to private TV channels ...

PSOE have staged something of a comeback recently, no? Before it looked like they would only be slightly above the PP.

Also worth noting that UP has feminized their name to Unidas Podemos.

The five-candidate debate suspended by the Central Electoral Board (Junta Electoral Central, JEC). ERC, PNV and CC appealed before the JEC complaining for being left out

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/17/inenglish/1555485592_606737.html


Prior to the 2015 general elections, Atresmedia organized a debate including Pablo Iglesias (Podemos) and Albert Rivera (Cs), alongside with Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) and Deputy PM Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría representing the PP (PM Mariano Rajoy refused to go). By then Podemos and Cs didn't have seats in Congress, but the 5% rule was relaxed to include other nationwide elections. Given that Podemos got 8% in the 2014 EP elections and Cs got more than 5% in the local elections held in May 2015, their candidates were allowed to participate in the debate. Anyway Pablo Iglesias stated that it is absurd to veto candidates in private network debated and I tend to agree with that.

Pedro Sánchez had accepted to participate in the five-candidate debate with the Vox leader because it was deemed suitable for his campaign strategy. It would have been a  great opportunity to show the Trio of Colón (PP, Cs and Vox) together and place himself at the centre of the stage: a moderate candidate advocating common sense, confronted to the radicalized and vociferous rightwing opposition. The divide and conquer strategy performed by Sánchez has certain resemblance with the strategy employed by Miterrand with the FN in the 80s. Apparently not everybody in the PSOE agreed with that course, but in any case the decision of the electoral board is a setback for the campaign.

Yesterday night there was a debate in TVE between representatives of the six parliamentary groups. Participants were: Cayetana Älvarez de Toledo (PP), María Jesús Montero (PSOE), Irene Montero (Podemos), Inés Arrimadas (Cs), Gabriel Rufián (ERC) and Aitor Esteban (PNV).

The highlight was an intervention of the PP candidate for Barcelona; "I find fascinating -told to the Treasure minister María Jesús Montero- that point in your platform saying you will guarantee with the Penal Code anything that is "no" is "yes", is "no". A silence is a "no"? Are you saying "yes", "yes" until the end? Cayetana Älvarez de Toledo was referring to the controversy on the sexual consent of women, in relation with the ruling of a case known by La Manada that raised widespread indignation. In summer 2016 a young woman was forced to have sexual relationships with 5 men during Los Sanfermines, a big fiesta that takes place in Pamplona (Navarre). Nearly everybody in Spain considered it was a multiple violation. However the court ruled it was sexual abuse but no violation, because the victim didn't say "no" explicitly to the five men. That rule provoked a wave of protests and a debate on whether silence implies consent or not. The PSOE intends to legislate in order that everything that is not explicit consent is considered a "no". Obviously Älvarez de Toledo disagrees with that proposal. The harsh tone of Älvarez de Toledo on this and other subjects (she attacked Sánchez too, in relation with Catalonia) raises enthusiasm in the faction of the PP close to Pablo Casado, but some supporters of Mariano Rajoy fear that it could help to mobilize the left.

A new poll has VOX with more than 14% support.

The way this is going (like in Finland), they will get 14-17% ... up from 0.2% in 2016.

The 'war on debates' came to an end. PM Pedro Sánchez accepted to participate in the debates organized by the public channel TVE and the private network Atresmedia that will take place on two consecutive days, Monday 22 (TVE) and Tuesday 23 (Atresmedia). Initially Pedro Sánchez stated his intention to participate only in the debate organized by Atresmedia, but after the exclusion of Vox he changed his mind and said he would participate in the debate organized by TVE and asked the public broadcaster RTVE to change the date from Monday to Tuesday. The RTVE manager accepted the request raising criticism among opposition leaders (whom maintained their commitment with the Atresmedia debate on Tuesday) and the journalists of the public channel. So we'll have two opportunities to watch the four candidates: Pedro Sánchez (PSOE), Pablo Casado (PP), Albert Rivera (Cs) and Pablo Iglesias (UP).

ERC leader Oriol Junqueras is giving a press conference today from prison, as the electoral board allowed the tried separatist leaders to do so via streaming. He stated that "neither by act nor by omission we will permit a far right government".

The Economist editorializes it'd be good that Pedro Sánchez gets a result allowing him to form a stable government and deems economically dangerous a PSOE-Pdemos coalition. Also, it warns that a rightwing triumvirate would aggravate conflict in Catalonia and be a step in the wrong direction for a country that fought so hard against the ghosts of the Franco's nationalism.
 
In a similar line, Brussels fears that the election may not end political instability

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/18/inenglish/1555570052_174296.html


  

This is an extraordinary map of the 2016 results by precinct or census section

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/17/actualidad/1555522788_557334.html

Results in my precict were UP 33%, PP 28%, PSOE 23%, Cs 11%

Some takes from the 2016 map

Madrid: PP wins in the wealthy districts along the Paseo de la Castellana, getting more than 80% of the vote in some precincts located in the Salamanca district. Unidos Podemos wins in emblematic neighbourhoods of the Madrid centre such as the multicultural Lavapiés (Podemos birthplace), Chueca (the LGTB quarter) and Malasaña (nightlife)


Barcelona: The red belt around Barcelona turned purple in the 2015 and 2016 elections. En Comú Podem was the winning party in most pf the Barcelona's neighbourhoods, while the PP resisted in the wealthiest sections of Sarrià-Sant Gervasi and Les Corts in competetion with CDC

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40 dB poll for El País. PP performing below 20% would be a catastrophe for Casado

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The real campaign begins tomorrow with the TV debate in two rounds

So the Right-Left percentages haven't really changed, its just the distribution between the blocks that has shifted to the benefit of sanchez.

Whats really interesting is that PSOE-C's has a hypothetical majority (never mind how realistic) only on 43% of the vote.

Not that unrealistic at all. The theshold for getting an overall majority as a single party seems to start at around 40% of the vote but depends also on how divided the opposition is.

Felipe González got exactly 175/350 seats in 1989 with only 39.6% of the popular vote. On an even more surprising fact, UCD came only 7 seats away from a majority with only 34.8% of the popular vote. The party that has benefited the most from the election system historically is still UCD, Spain's election system was designed on purpose so UCD would get a majority with roughly 35% of the popular vote while PSOE would need closer to 40%.

However, trends have definitely made this less clear and more about just benefiting large parties though there's still a very small right wing bias when all things are equal (which only mattered during the 2 party system era)

The math for blocs is certainly a lot more complicated though. But it's not that weird for PSOE+Cs to be with a majority with only around 43% of the vote.

Also, here's how my precinct looks like. This is particularly interesting as I live in the same town as Velasco :P (albeit in very different places it seems)

PP 39%
UP 23%
Cs 18%
PSOE 16%
CC 1%

With weird polarized politics like that it's got to be an middle-upper class suburb or neighborhood of Madrid.

Well, with CC being an option and being in the same town as Velasco, it can't be Madrid :P

It is indeed a middle or upper-middle class suburb though. Also one of the more ex-urban kinds of suburb, not close at all to the city center.

CC got approximately the same votes as PACMA in LPGC ;D. The neighbourhood where I have my 'official' residence (I am registered there, but that doesn't imply I live there all the time) is working class with some middle class patches and is urban. Other places in town where I lived when I was a child are more PP leaning, though. Particularly in the precinct where is located the clinic where I was born and what was my grandparents' house the PP got more than 50% of the vote.

I believe that Malasaña is the best neighborhood in the whole world. Good to know how people vote there, although it seemed obvious when I stayed there. I remember that the first flag I saw was a republican one.

On a side note, I know Vallecas has a left-wing reputation, but is amazing the numbers from the neighborhood, you have the two parties from the left of center performing well there. One precinct has UP over 50% and PSOE over 20%. Nevertheless, Salamanca offsets those results haha.

Also, the results from Salamanca and Valladolid are very interesting (from my point of view). Those cities are known for being very right wing, but the PP performed really well in the respective downtowns. It should be interesting to see how this would move on sunday (I think Cs and Vox could perform well there).

How are CC numbers in regional/municipal elections in LPGC??? Probably better than those numbers from the general election but I don't think much better.

Other question, how people see NCa vs CC?

The numbers are bad. LPGC is the most populous city in the Canary Islands and the CC's black hole. NC has better numbers, obviously. However NC has been always comparatively weaker in the capital, while it's stronger in the rest of the Gran Canaria island. Particularly the NC's historical strongholds are located in the GC1 corridor, a major road that runs through the east coast connecting the capital with the tourist resorts in the south (Maspalaomas-Playa del Inglés).

2015 regionalist vote in LPGC (local, regional and insular):

- In the local elections NC got 7.5% of the vote winning 2 councilors
CC got 3.2% of the vote failing to reach the 5% threshold to win councilors

- In the regional elections NC got 9.3% of the vote (18.4% in the Gran Canaria constituency) and CC got 3.6% (6.2% in Gran Canaria)

- Similarly in the elections for the Cabildo (insular government) NC performed worse in the capital (17% in LPGC and 26.5% in Gran Canaria), while the CC Numbers were uniform (5.4% in the capital and 5.6% overall).

NC came first in the elections for the Cabildo mostly due to the popularity of its candidate Antonio Morales, who got better results than party leader Román Rodríguez in regional elections. I voted for Morales, despite I'm not a big fan of his party. I backed him because he was the most viable candidate to defeat PP, as well he's decent and more palatable to me than the former CC premier Román Rodríguez (1999-2003).  

The rivalry between CC and NC is basically related to the pleito insular, that it's to say the rivalry between the two most populous islands: Tenerife and Gran Canaria. CC has been historically dominated by a party of Tenerife "independents" (mostly coming from UCD) called ATI*, which was the main component of a preexisting federation of insular parties. NC is a split of CC whose origin is the dispute for power between ATI and the Gran Canaria branch led by Román Rodríguez, who sought for another term as premier. I think there was some implicit agreement on rotating premiers from TF and GC that ATI wanted to break in order to place its candidate Paulino Rivero (2007-2015). The origins of the NC members are different from those of ATI, as many of them came from leftwing regionalist parties like Asamblea Canaria (AC-INC) or Unión del Pueblo Canario (UPC). Even former PCE members joined CC back in the day... However the ideology and principles of some leftist elements melted into the CC's big tent. Currently NC governs the Cabildo (in coalition with PSOE and 2 councilors formerly in Podemos), several GC municipalities and is part of the local government of LPGC (PSOE-Podemos-NC).

*The Tenerife Group of Independents (ATI) is ideologically right of the centre and has been the dominant political force in the island for many years at local, insular and regional levels. All the past and present CC premiers are from ATI, except Román Rodríguez.    

Good showing from Rivera, it seems. Pablo Iglesias not bad, Sanchéz average and total car crash for Pablo Casado.

I couldn't see the whole debate, but there's another tomorrow night. A panel of 8 experts in El País gives the following verdict: Iglesias 4, Rivera 3, Sánchez 1, Casado 0.
 
https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/22/actualidad/1555942966_982643.html


Iglesias resembled too much former IU leader Julio Anguita with his constant invocations to the constitution, but on the other hand it's a good way to counterattack the aggresive 'constitutionalism' of the right claiming that PSOE and Podemos are 'unconstitutional'. Both Iglesias and Rivera are good in TV debates, while Sánchez is average at best. Casado has experience in talk shows, but the experts consider that he crashed tonight.

I gather the leader of Vox was not in the debate?

IIRC Spanish debates are limited to parties that got a certain percentage of the vote in the previous election.

Indeed. Sánchez wanted to invite Vox, but election authorities ruled that it was not legal to invite them.

I think the criteria used by the election authorities was that only parties above 5% at a recient national election would get the right to take part in the debate.

In 2015 they could get around this for Podemos and Cs with a loophole, as Podemos got 8% in the 2014 European election and Cs got 6.5% nationwide in the local elections.

No such luck this time for Vox though, as their only election was the Andalucia regional one, but that was a regional, not national election.

Is that actually a bad thing for Vox though? Would they actually quite like the mantle of “outsider” going into these elections?

Not really. Many people think that it's better for Vox being outside in order to take the role of victim.  Additionally Vox leader Santiago Abascal lacks experience in debates,  as well as an dialectical tools or an elaborate discourse. While the four leaders debate again tonight Vox will organize a big campaing act in Las Rozas, an affluent PP stronghold near Madrid. They have their own agenda and are running a parallel campaign strongly focused on social networks. Abascal is making very few public appearances. Bolsonaro style.

To be fair Bolsonaro did have a very big reason not to do public appearances.

As for Vox, they don't seem to me likme they are doing any less rallies than the other parties. Plus their ralies have huge attendance numbers apparently.

I believe if there's one party polls are underpolling, it has to be Vox. I certainly don't believe the polls giving them around 8%; they are clearly in double digits.

How can people seriously rate Rivera in debate performances. He came across as so overdramatic and rushed at the same time. His final speech basically akin to the kind of speech a sh**tty football coach gives to his team. Arrimadas was infinitely better in the debate previous to this one with the small parties. She is like an anaconda on any slip up her oponent lets on.  

In general the tone of the debates reflects the campaign though : lamentable.

Abascal speaks at campaign rallies,  but he's much more elusive than other candidates and only talks to friendly media. Btw, Vox spokepersons are stating their intent to lock down not only public TV channels (including the golpista TV3, of course) but unfriendly private channels too...

I dislike Rivera too, but he clearly managed to gain ground to Casado appealing to the same audience target. The football coach call works with some voters, sadly.

The final debate is being tough with Pablo Casado and Albert Rivera attacking Pedro Sánchez,  in open competition for the leadership of the Right. Many interruptions and too much finger-pointing. The fact check in media reveals the three told lies or inaccuracies. The only one who keeps a correct tone is Pablo Iglesias, and I'm not member of his fan club. In my ipinion the Podemos leader is the clear winner of the night...

Last night's debate was marked by its harsh tone, the fight between Casado and Rivera for the leadership in the right and a clear divide between blocs with Pedro Sánchez saying a deal with Cs is not in his plans. Pablo Iglesias separated himself from the others, surprising many with his serene and propositive approach. Certainly his expectations are lower than three years ago, but this version of the Podemos leader is more likeable than the arrogant prick he was before. The Podemos leader is undoubtedly smart and once again he showed up as a good communicator. On the other hand, Casado recovered ground to an overacting and histrionic Rivera. Pedro Sánchez survived and sometimes it seemed he showed a half smile while his rivals in the right fought each other. Sánchez clashed with Rivera, partly because the Cs leader was annoying and partly to diminish Casado's protagonism. Iglesias came occasionally to defend Sánchez, assuming the role of guardian of the leftist essences and loyal collaborator. The sync beetween the candidates left of the centre was much better than that of the right.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/24/inenglish/1556088918_583955.html


One of the highlights was the exchange of poisoned gifts between Rivera and Sánchez. Many people think their rivalry enters personal grounds and it seems obvious they loathe each other. After this debate the possibility of a PSOE-Cs agreement looks more unlikely than ever...


Enric Juliana's assessment in La Vanguardia

Pedro Sánchez. More energetic and tighter than previous day. He repeatedly sought hand-to-hand combat with Rivera. He showed a letter suggesting the creation of blacklists in the Justice department of the Andalusian regional government managed by Cs with devastating effect. He broke with Cs and accused oranges of complicity with the far right.

Pablo Casado. He sought to get back on his feet and at times he managed to do so. His tone in the debate was more moderate than in campaign (but he showed up more combative than previous day), Visibly upset with Rivera.

Albert Rivera. This time he couldn't lead the way with the deal of brio he showed on Monday. Sánchez and Casado blocked him. He went too fast (overacting) and got lost with his constant interruptions to rivals.

Pablo Iglesias. Professoral, attenuated, controlled, constitutional, asking moderation to the other candidates. He was the most solid speaker and there will be consensus on proclaiming him the winner of the second debate. An unseen version of Iglesias defending Podemos as a party of government.

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MINUTO-POLITICO-Recta-campana-decidir_13_892190773_26522.html

A leading candidate for the Madrid Community says the governance of the city centre in relation to reducing car emissions is all wrong because traffic jams when you go out to dinner are part of the city's heritage.

I am really starting to think the Spanish Right is the dumbest Right in Western Europe.

Isabel Diaz Ayuso stands out as one of the dumbest PP candidates promoted by Casado. Maybe she's not the worst. Recently the PP candidate for Huelva in general elections said that Pedro Sánchez "seats at the table with violators and pedophiles". The daughter of Juan José Cortés was killed by one of those criminals and that's a tragedy, but the man does not have a skill level to run in elections. One of the 'new' Casado candidates is articulate and smart, case of Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo, but she's too radical and confrontational and has been placed in Barcelona to set fire to the flames with very bad prospects of electoral success. I think that Casado's PP is making the Vox campaign and most of the new set of candidates is mediocre. Sometimes is I miss the Rajoy's boring predictability.

What a coincidence, shortly after the brilliant statements of the PP regional candidate in Madrid, Cs hires former Madrid premier Ängel Garrido to run in the regional list. Garrido replaced Cristina Cifuentes after her resignation over the master degree scandal and is a close friend of hers. The new orange team draftee sought to run as the PP's candidate for premiership, but Pablo Casado replaced him and appointed Isabel Díaz Ayuso. According to El País, Garrido decided to take revenge at Easter because his team of collaborators was relegated in the regional lists. Garrido had previously accepted to run in the 4th position of the PP list for the EP elections.

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2019/04/24/madrid/1556131657_186311.html

Facebook takes down far-right groups days before Spanish election

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/25/facebook-takes-down-far-right-groups-days-before-spanish-election


Pierre Moscovici: "We need a pro-European, proactive government in Spain"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/25/inenglish/1556176223_194937.html

Is Electomania seriously getting around the polling ban by pretending to be talking about emojis?

The "Andorra fruit market" in previous elections was better. It was referring to the polls released by a paper from Andorra during the ban. I'm afraid the "emojipanel" is only a version of the "electopanel" and the latter is a fake poll. Our electoral law is more absurd than ever...

I mean Vox voters have been anything but shy,Vox surged following Andalusia in part because people now felt that they were a legitimate party. If there is another Vox surge its because polls fail to account for turnout (once again see Andalusia) or there is something going on post-debates that the polls cannot capture because of the ban.

What are PSOE and Podemos at in the screenshot?

I will not be suprised if Vox has 15%+ but to be first will be difficult. But not impossible.

it would require some pretty serious sampling errors to have been made by pretty much all of the posters. Far more than any sort of "shy" effect could seriously justify.

Thank you so much for this!

Mi precinct looked like this:

PP 33
PSOE 32
UP 25
C's 11

It seems mine is the only blue precinct of the small barrio where I live. PSOE won the rest, even though the rest of the city is painted in blue.

Yes they are. Not quite the old "Andorra fruit market", but better than nothing. One of the more absurd things about Spanish election law.

And as Velasco said, the Electopanel is not a proper poll, but more like an online panel.

It's better than nothing, and they did perform remarkably well in the Andalusian election, but it's not a proper poll. In other words, we have absolutely no clues about what is going to happen.

As for Vox coming in first for the right, it's very unlikely. An scenario like 2015 but on the right is more likely though (Vox coming third and remarkably close to PP; like 1-2 points behind just like UP in 2015 came within 1.5% of PSOE)

There certainly can be a polling error that puts Vox way up ahead, but not sure if even that would be enough to put them in first.

Also, just realized I haven't posted any campaign posters/Slogans. So since today is the last campaign day, here you go!

PSOE: Make it happen / The Spain you want

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PP: Safe value

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Cs: Let's go Ciudadanos

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UP: History is written by you

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Vox: For Spain

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PACMA: Join the Re-evolution
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Regional parties. Posting only links in order not to make this too large.

ERC: It's about freedom
https://www.segre.com/uploads/imagenes/bajacalidad/2019/04/14/_41768210_ba719594.jpg?d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e

JxCat: You are our voice, you are our strength
https://www.segre.com/uploads/imagenes/bajacalidad/2019/04/14/_41768211_71765438.jpg?d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e

PNV: The Basque Country moves us, zurea gurea (no idea what that means)
https://www.eaj-pnv.eus/img/ho19/eaj-facebook-orokorrak19.jpg

Bildu: To advance
(Can't find an actual campaign poster, so here's a random rally)
https://static.deia.eus/images/2019/04/18/acto-electoral-de-eh-18931073_31851_11.jpg

CC: Fighting for the Canaries
http://ccfuerteventura.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/pegada-carteles-4.jpg

Compromís: Unstoppable
https://www.elperiodic.com/archivos/imagenes/noticias/2019/03/27/baldo-imparables-28a.jpeg

BNG: Galicia now
https://www.adiantegalicia.es/upload/images/carteles-bng.jpg

NCa: To defend the Canaries / Canaries with a future
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Qa_I0_4zipc/XK_O7pfMO9I/AAAAAAABFAs/amjHtcIfNqksQwQ-KJSL9VCVaEI9-z1lQCLcBGAs/s1600/Nueva%2BCanarias%2Barranc%25C3%25B3%2Bsu%2Bcampa%25C3%25B1a%2Belectoral%2B%2Bdel%2B28-A%2Ben%2Bla%2Bmedianoche%2Bdel%2Bjueves%2Bcon%2Bla%2Btradicional%2Bpegada%2Bde%2Bcarteles%2B2.jpg

PRC: Cantabria wins
https://www.publico.es/tremending/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/revilla-1132x670.jpg

(yes, that's a meme, couldn't find a proper pic but the poster itself is unaltered)

FR: We are a wall: Republic / Vote a breakdown, vote republic
https://www.rac1.cat/r/GODO/R1/p0/WebSite/Imagenes/2019/04/12/img_20190412-143245_muntat_front_repub-kPQH--1084x766@RAC1-Web.jpg

These are all the regional parties with a chance at a seat.

It's nearly impossible that Vox becomes the largest party in the right. However, from what I've been collecting and without polling evidence, there could be a Vox surge in the last minute pushing the far right to 15% and not far from the third place (in competition with Cs and UP). Right now the WhatsApp groups must be coming from the wound with fake news and propaganda. In case this surge happens, it'd be at the expense of PP and Cs but also on the mobilization of angered voters who don't believe in politics anymore (thus support antipolitics). PP's campaign staff assumes the loses will be big but the conservatives would call victory if a Vox surge brings them back to power. Some people feel the PSOE's progression halted and now socialists are below the 30% mark. UP might have recovered some ground thanks to the revelations on the dirty war against the purples during the Rajoy administration and the good performance of Pablo Iglesias in the TV debates.

I'm not making a prediction and I hope the Franco's comeback won't happen, but I'm crossing fingers and preparing myself for the most dangerous possibility. Just in case. Also, take into account the election of Donald Trump in 2016 was something like the accession to the throne of Caligula and his horse. This created a bandwagon effect in the rest of the wold (Bolsonaro, Salvini, etcetera).

In the news, Casado considers the possibility of including Vox in government in case of rightwing majority.

Pedro Sánchez: "There is a real risk that the right could join with the far right"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/26/inenglish/1556261539_359058.html

  Any sense of what  the combined seat total of PSOE plus UP would be for a viable Sanchez government?

176?... The Catalans brought down this govt after all. The combined vote total doesn't need to be 50%+1 though, likely something around 43%.

Potential Govts:

1) Pure Left: PSOE+Podemos
2) Pure Right: PP+C's+Vox
3) Centrist, if nothing else works: PSOE+C's
4) The chaos from 2015/16 continues, and small parties are needed

Sanchez has been dealt the winning hand though, he just needs to play his cards right (And he has for a while now).

The best result for the left would be a seat count that makes the support of catalan separatists unnecesary. Given that PNV will win around 6 seats and Compromis might win 3, I'd say more than 165. Below that mark ERC would become decisive for the conformation of majorities. Also, it'd be important the combined seats of PSOE, UP, PNV and Compromis exceed those of PP, Cs and Vox. In that case Pedro Sánchez could pass a second investiture vote with the abstention of the catalan separatists.  The more decisive are the latter, the more unstable and weak will be a leftwing government.

Most likely 167. Combined with an expected 6 for PNV and 3 for Compromis that would add up to 176.

Same. Going to shul now, on this special occasion I will be praying for Vox and the right 🙏🏻

In Vox's defense (never thought I'd say that), they did eventually have to take him out of the list

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20190321/461160389167/fernando-paz-vox-albacete-renuncia-caceria-mediatica.html

They do have plenty of other "colourful" candidates, including 2 pro-Francoist former generals

I think that I said it before, but Vox didn't take him out based on moral scruples. Far from that, Vox asked him to 'resign' because an Holocaust negationist was not acceptable for the Vox's friends in the Alt-Right wing of the Republican Party (and by extension certain powerful donors linked to them, as well as the Israeli Right). Also, the Jewish community in Spain is small but it has good connections with the Spanish mainstream right and the business world. There was an obvious concern regarding possible coalition partners with candidates showing Nazi sympathies...

With the campaign coming to a close, here is my prediction

PSOE: 27% (110)
PP: 21% (79)
UP: 15,5% (50)
Cs: 15,5% (49)
Vox: 11% (32)
PACMA: 2% (1)

ERC: 3% (10)
JxCat: 1,5% (5)
PNV: 1,2% (6)
Compromís: 1,1% (3)
Bildu: 0,8% (3)
BNG: 0,5% (0)
FR: 0,4% (1)
CC: 0,3% (1)
PRC: 0,15% (0)
NCa: 0,15% (0)

By bloc:

Right: 47.5% (160)
Left: 42.5% (160)
PSOE-Cs: 42.5% (159)

End result: Big mess, new elections in October

I take it you are expressing pessimism?

Yeah, somewhat, particularly for PSOE; but my prediction isn't that pessimistic and could be worse (like say a PP-Cs-Vox majority)

In fact if you believe ERC would support Sánchez this result would actually give him a decent working majority of PSOE-UP-ERC-PNV, with no need for PDECat.

Plus the option of a "coalition of chaos" that excludes the Catalans (PSOE-UP-PNV-Bildu-Compromís-PACMA) would be at 173, only 2 seats short of a majority. Though that is still 2 seats short.

I was thinking more in the vein of 'chaos.' Math, polls, and the MOE denitely seems to favor Spain getting a govt, rather then returning to 2015. But chaos is certainly a option.

For example, one situation we are discussing is a Vox surge. But such a surge (say 2-3%) likely pulls overwhelmingly from PP. Because of D'hodt, this likely causes the conservatives to lose seats overall thanks to the vote cut. PSOE from a govt. But if Vox pulls and surges based on turnout, and PP retains their vote, then theres a conservative govt as the left looses % overall.

Guess PSOE will win some more anti-right voters causing UP to lose some more. Also think Vox is being underpolled again. The right should hope turnout will remain low and left-wingers are lulled into sleep thinking the right won't reach a majority due to Sanchez' strong campaign, but the sheer gap between PSOE and PP means PSOE will get a really beneficial vote-seat ratio. I think the right will either win a razor-thin majority or will be extremely close to having one.

PSOE 28%, PP 19%, Cs 16%, Vox 14%, UP 10%.

I personally believe chaos and no government is the most likely option. I am very pessimistic about ERC's chances of supporting Sánchez, and those are at least 11 seats that he desperately needs and won't get. Without the Catalans, Sánchez's chances of forming government drop drastically.

On the other hand, the right also seems unlikely to get a majority and unlike the left, they can't rely on any regional parties whatsoever (not even CC would support a Vox-backed government)

Of the 3 combinations, I think PSOE-Cs would be the most likely, but after Cs has rejected it so harshly, I doubt it's happening. Plus it's unclear if it would add up in the first place. This one can rely a bit more on regional allies, but not much more. CC would certainly support this, and so would PRC (if they get in), but that's 2 seats at most (and most likely just one). I thought PNV could support this, but after Cs' hardline campaign and extremely harsh critizism of the Basque economic arrangement, it isn't happening.

So overall, probably chaos, but it all depends on what ERC does.

How long will it take before we get new elections then?

It's a fixed date from the day the confidence vote happens. My rough estimate would be a 2nd election some time after the summer, probably in autumn. Last time that happened the election was in December and the repeat election in June. So expect approximately 6 months between elections.

VOX leader Santi Abascal reminds me of a Spanish version of Salvini in Italy, which means VOX should perform really well tomorrow.

My prediction therefore is as followed:

27.3% PSOE (+4.7%)
20.6% PP (-12.4%)
17.1% VOX (+16.9%)
14.2% Cs (+1.1%)
13.5% UP (-7.7%)
  7.3% Others

51.9% Right (+5.6%)
40.8% Left (-3.0%)

Turnout: 70.4% (+3.9%) - this is based on all eligible voters incl. Spanish voters abroad

I think Santiago Abascal has little in common with Matteo Salvini, leaving aside that both are far right demagogues and have a beard. One of the main differences between Vox and other far right parties like Lega in Italy is the lack of a charismatic link between the party leader and his voters. In the case of Spain the Vox trademark is stronger than Abascal.

https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1121856949883154433

Welp.

Is that Vox slogan "España Viva" viewed as a dog whistle to the slogan in the Franco era (the one starting with "España una") or does it not have that connotation?

The right is going to win the election.

They belong to the same political family and it's obvious that Salvini supports Abascal and not Sánchez. What proves and what's the point in embedding tweets like that?


Do you mean "Una, Grande y Libre"? "España Viva" might have that connotation for some people, likewise a slogan like "Make Spain Great Again" could be interpreted in that way. I think it's obvious the Franco's spirit is there, but Vox is not campaigning on overtly Francoist slogans.

Since you had just stated that they aren't similar and Salvini tweeted an endorsement? Didn't Salvini use to advocate for the separatists in the past? I dunno, I don't think I really "get" Europe's politics yet.

Lega yes, Salvini not so much.

Obviously I was referring to the style of leadership. Salvini is a charismatic leader; Abascal is not.

Well, you need to define "win".

Win the popular vote? Yeah, that is almost a certainty. Almost all polls seem to give the right an advantage of somewhere around 5 points. There is only one poll or 2 predicting a left wing victory in the popular vote and even those give narrow victories of 1 point

Win more seats than the left? That one is iffy. Because of the way Spanish elections work, with a somewhat but not fully proportional system; this one is doable but far from a certainty. I'd give it a 50% chance of happening

Being able to actually make government?. This one, while possible, is actually unlikely, I'd give it a 20-25% chance of happening. The right is a heavy underdog for this because while PSOE-UP could theoretically get into government with as little as 155 seats (if you assume getting ERC is doable), the right needs at least 176 as they can't rely in any regional parties whatsoever, not even the Canarians.

The right can easily win, but for a PP-Cs-Vox government, winning is not enough, they need to win big.

Where is PACMA's best shot of winning a seat? Madrid presumably?

Also, everyone assuming that VOX will surge by 3 points over all the polling... remember that everyone expected the same thing in France, and Sweden, and in both cases neither happens. VOX having virtually no electoral history or "last time voters" makes them harder to poll, but it doesn't necessarily mean that the polls are massively underestimating them.

According to the CIS, Barcelona and Valencia. I think Barcelona and Madrid, in this order. In both cases it's enough to get 3% of the vote to win a seat in Congress. PACMA performed slightly better in Barcelona (1.8%) with regard to Madrid (1.1%) in 2016.


Yes, that surge in the last minute is only a possibility. Additionally the demoscopic silence forced by our electoral law helps to spread rumours and foster fantasy. The theory of a Vox surge is based on the precedent of the Andalusian elections, when opinion polls undetected its real strength because the final rush occurred in the last days during the polling ban. People guess if there's a "shy effect" it would affect Vox. The far right party is expected to perform strongly in Madrid, Castilla, Andalusia, Murcia or Valencia. However the Vox results in Catalonia, Basque Country or Galicia will be presumaably weak. There will be surprises omorrow night, that's for sure. Vox has chances to come in third place, but maybe it won't fulfill some expectations or flights of imagination (or maybe it will, who knows). I think the game is open and nothing is written.

The issue about Populist parties like VOX, RN, Lega, AFD and SD is that they do not have any sort of loyal voter base, like PP and PSOE. Like Podemos and Cs they came out of nowhere, and could disappear just as quickly, as their voters find another party to channel their hatred/disgust of the establishment, corruption, immigrants, catalans... I think they could depending on the circumstances either do way better than polls expect (like Brexit, Finns, AFD, Salvini) or way worse like (FN and SD). I suspect the former, but both is equally possible.  

Assuming PSOE-UP does not get the numbers to form a government, under what circumstances will C join up with PSOE?  I assume if the PP-C gap is small then C will prefer to stay in opposition so it can overtake PP as the main party of the Right while a large PP-C gap would see C join up with PSOE?  If so I guess there is a contradiction since a weaker C performance also means that a PSOE-C alliance might not be able to form a stable government.     

PSOE-C would require a huge 180 on behalf of Rivera. Which he could do because he's done it before, but after his present campaign it would be even more difficult. And he himself seems much more of a right-winger than he liked to admit, though he's showing more of his true colors now.

I think Rivera has made a strategic mistake by aligning himself to the right to such an extent, which weakens both the combined right and C's by causing PSOE-C swing voters who don't necessarily appreciate PP (let alone Vox) to move to the PSOE. Might as well just shut up about your coalition preferences, win more votes, join a right-wing coalition (or even lead it), and have these voters leave you for PSOE afterwards while you're in government anyway.

A huge proportion of people aren't decided. I'm worried if more of them are right wing voters than left wing ones...especially because it makes sense given how unstablised the right wing is I guess?

Well, RN in particular do have a well established electorate, which is why the pollsters tend to get them right (going off topic a bit - in the first round at least, in the second round the pollsters were wrong because it meant trying to understand how many non-FN voters would choose Le Pen, which was a situation that hadn't really happened before and was therefore harder to poll...).

With pollsters getting RWPP scores wrong, it is usually down to them simply asking the wrong people/sampling wrong/estimating "likelyhood to vote" etc.. wrong, rather than a "shy voter" effect - which imo, is an effect that people tend to massively overestimate. In particular, your "normal" RWPP voter tends to be someone who is harder to reach through conventional phone or internet poll (older, less educated, lower income, potentially less politically motivated and therefore less likely to answer the phone or sign up to an online panel). However, with VOX, iirc, one of the things that came out of Andalusia is that their electorate tends to be a little bit different to the clichéd "left behind working class" RWPP voter (which is, of course, nowhere near as accurate as is commonly presented). Someone correct me if I am wrong, but I think they were often demographically closer to the traditional right-wing/PP voter than, say, Le Pen voters in the rural east of France, which has always been volatile.

Anyway, what I'm saying is, yeah, there is a very good chance they are being polled incorrectly - but it could go in either direction - and it probably isn't correct to call it a "shy voter" effect.

If Cs is to be believed, maybe, maybe they would support a PSOE-Cs government led by someone else instead of Sánchez; presumably led by a moderate like Susana Díaz (though after the Andalusian election, probably not her especifically)

But even that seems unlikely as they have shifted extremely hard to the right. Plus Cs' efforts to remove Rajoy as PP leader in 2016 failed and I can't see them succeeding this time.

If Vox overtakes Cs (meaning a weak PP government or a 3 way coalition) or even worse, PP (meaning PM Abascal) then things with PSOE-Cs would get more interesting. But if the order is PP-Cs-Vox, I can't see any way for PSOE-Cs to happen.

Has Rivera explicitly said that he would form a government with PP and Vox?

Anyway, I agree that, from the Andalusia results, the Vox electorate was more PP-like than RWPP-like.
Might be that, as they become more and more known nation-wide, they manage to reach also the latter votes.
This also seems to me the only chance for a rightwing government.

Things have definitely changed a lot from when Sanchez was forced to step down a while ago, anyway...

Exactly.
Lega was slowly disappearing when Salvini became secretary, after scandals concerning the theft of 49 million euros. He single-handedly changed it from a northern secessionist right-wing party to a national and nationalist RWPP, in large part also thanks to his communication style and his spin doctors.
It's clear that Salvini supports Vox, as much as he supports any right-wing anti-establishment party aroun the globe. He's also looking for support for his new group in the European Parliament. But that doesn't mean that Abascal is Salvini-like (except for the beard and the ugliness).

They pretty mcuh no choice, they did that move when all the voters who supported for their hardline about Catalans moved to Vox/PP and they fell in polls to nearly 10%.

It was a choice between either confirming their new selling point or giving up on it and searching a new one (but an electoral campaign isn't the time to do that).

Anyway, the myth that Spain is immune to far-right populist parties will crash and burn tomorrow.

And from what I have read, it will crash and burn pretty hard, as VOX has a very successful outreach campaign on the ground and will end up with 15-20%.

Not impossible (and from your lips to God's ears), but sounds way too high and would certainly require a massive polling error. Placing my bets on 12-14% territory.

It seems you are taking the more conservative approach in guesstimating the result, while I take the more realistic one. Years of massive unemployment, dissatisfaction with life and misery among a very large group of Spanish voters, imported crime and immigration from Africa and the Middle East (tolerated by the Socialist PM) and their likelihood to support fast rising startup parties like Cs and Podemos in the past suggest that there could be some massive polling error tomorrow and that voters are not telling pollsters their true intentions.

But I don't know much about Spain and what is true in other countries may not be true there, so my prediction could also be completely nuts.

A very critical factor will be turnout. Spain always had high turnout rates, but, the unpopularity of the main parties, plus the fact that all seem quite bad, could mean that turnout could fall to the lowest rate ever. This will heavily impact the balance between the left and right blocs.

These kind of things are hard to gauge. But there are also things suggesting higher turnout this time. 2016 was so soon after the previous election, so there might have been some fatigue. Also, I think we have seen elsewhere a turnout boost when anti-immigration parties surge in the polls as they tend to attract many previous non-voters. Also the polarizing climate between the right-wing parties and independence movements might motivate more persons to go vote.
On the other hand, I guess Podemos' downturn could be partly due to their voters sitting out. Disappointed with the party's disunity, and lack of ability to affect real change?

I understand your joy and happiness with the Vox surge in Spain, since you share a similar eorldview. However this post shows your deep ignorance of Spanish politics, as you admit in the last paragraph. I will have to ask you to read something before you post here. I would never dare to poke my nose into the Austrian thread without a mimimum knowledge of issues, or at least a minimum interest to understand the reality of the country. Please, go away with your Breitbart and your Tweeter

It's just my hunch, of course, and you're right that there also also things that could make turnout increase on both sides. But, look what happened in Andalusia last year. Turnout was only 56%, with a huge depressed PSOE electorate and a unprecedented surge of Vox voters coming from the two main parties.

My view is that the majority of undecided voters are centrist/center-right voters who don't know what to do. They don't like Sanchéz, feel that the PP has become desperate, that C's is flip floping on many things and Vox, well, could be just unacceptable. They may just stay home. This time around, low turnout could benefit the left. We'll see.

Nonetheless, the level of uncertainty, drama and fear is unprecedented in Spanish politics.

A) I can post my 1 or 2 cents on any topic or issue and on any thread I want, even in the Spanish election thread.

B) I do share some points with VOX on immigration, for sure. But I also oppose many other of their positions such as the abortion ban, the dissolution of the Spanish regions or their hostility to the media and press freedom. Just because I share their common-sense view on immigration, it doesn't make me a Breitbarterer or a supporter of VOX as you falsely claim.

You can post your two cents as long as you are respectful. That post of yours is not respectful and is plenty of inaccuracies. I think it's obvious that you share the same worldviews of the far right. Opinion is free. Trolling, falsehood and disrespect are not. I think you don't have an actual interest in Spain and there are plenty threads where uou can share your hatred of immigrants. Please, Tender, go.

Please explain this further. I would like to see what exactly you mean by these accusations ...

Or let's not and stay focused on the election. Will we get one last emojipanel today?

Next stop for crashing and burning the myth of immunity to far right populism: Portugal? :P

15-20% is way, way too high though. As DavidB has said, 12-14% seems more realistic for a "Vox surge" scenario. I'd cap Vox at 15%

And that's of course if you assume a surge in the first place. It's also possible that polls actually got them right (which would mean 11%) or that they overestimated them (very unlikely though)

While Tender's take was indeed bad, he did express it in a respectful way. Inaccuracies and bad takes are not disrespectful. And I won't say anything else on the matter, unless we want to have the mods have to clean up this mess.


No, the people behind it said they weren't publishing any more panels. They have said they will keep taking answers to their panel though, and publish an "Exit panel" as a sort of exit poll.

We will also get 2 proper polls made during the campaign though, like we had in the Catalan and Andalusian elections. One will be done by GAD3 for TVE (the national public TV). Another will be done by IMOP for Cadena COPE (a large private radio station which leans conservative). They will both be released at 20:00 Spanish time when polls close in the mainland.

No proper exit polls though. (or Andorra fruit polls for that matter).

Okay, as someone who is rather out of touch on Spanish politics, I have a question regarding the ERC and a PSOE government.  Would the ERC demand a government sponsored referendum for Independence in exchange for supporting the government?  Or do they have a different price? 

Also, what progress have any of the other regionalists/nationalists, particularly Basque ones, made this election?

One question. These will be the first Spanish elections I'll follow live and with a general idea of what's happening. Any suggestions on which news sites to check out, which accounts should I follow on twitter, and the sort?

If any of our Spanish posters could give us a brief overview of all regionalists that are expected to win seats ("ERC: left-wing, Catalan nationalist, could/could not support PSOE" etc) that would be much appreciated as well. It's very unclear to me. Are there any that could provide support to a right-wing government?

That's a good idea

Speaking of Vox surges, El País and Kiko Llaneras have published what they believe are the 6 most likely ways for the polls to fail. They recognize that while polls are generally accurate, there is always a polling mistake somewhere. So here it is

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https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/27/actualidad/1556358041_818858.html

And here are the scenarios they believe are most likely if polls miss:

1: Vox surge (like other examples across Europe)
2: More general right wing surge (kind of like Andalucia)
3: Podemos makes a comeback (kind of like 2015)
4: The trends during the first half of the campaign keep going
5: PP resilience (kind of like 2016)
6: 100% accurate polls

Yes, 100% accurate polls would also qualify as a mistake historically speaking. Also, I believe scenario 4 is not happening, as the debates pretty much stopped any PSOE momentum and benefited Cs.


Yeah, they will probably ask for that plus a pardon for the Catalan politicians in jail. PSOE is almost definitely not accepting it (I can see them pardoning the Catalan politicians or commuting their sentences under some circumstances; but a referendum is not happening, ever, under PSOE).

Whether they will accept empty words about dialogue and comprehension or adopt a harsh line of "referendum now", I do not know. I personally believe they won't.

As for the Basques, I don't really get the question. PNV is not actively pushing for independence. Bildu is indeed actively for independence, but they've adopted a very moderate approach on that and do openly say they will support Sánchez. Very surprising for a party where a large part of the membership supported the murders of local PSOE officials by ETA as reciently as 11 years ago!

PNV is 100% reliable for Sánchez IMO, while Bildu is more or less where ERC is. However, because of ETA, PSOE can't exactly ask for Bildu support openly, it gives absolutely horrible optics.

Considering that there were two back-to-back debates during the polling blackout, the likelihood that the polls fail in disastrous fashion seems pretty likely. I think that the most plausible scenario would be an eyepopping Podemos overperformance, which wouldn't be difficult to accomplish. In the end though, there's a lot of uncertainty. No "side" has reason to feel very confident because we're all in the dark.

Here you go. All chances are assuming a PSOE-UP government.

For PSOE-Cs, no one would support that except NA+, CC, PRC and maybe Compromís (this last one is very unlikely though).

For PP-Cs-Vox, only NA+ would support that.

Certain to get seats

ERC: Left wing, Catalan secessionist. Unclear if they would support PSOE (lean no). Expected seats: 10-15

JxCat: Centre-right, Catalan secessionist. Probably would not support PSOE, but not 100% certain. Expected seats: 4-8

PNV: Centre-right. Basque nationalist. Almost 100% certain that they would support PSOE. Expected seats: 6

Compromís: Left wing. Valencian nationalist. Almost 100% certain to support PSOE. Expected seats: 3-5

Bildu: Left wing. Basque secessionist. Unclear if they would support PSOE (lean yes personally but very debatable). Expected seats: 2-4

Navarra Suma: Right wing. Navarra regionalist. Coalition between PP, Cs and UPN in Navarra, but all seats will go to UPN because of how the list was made. Expected seats: 2. Almost 100% certain not to support Sánchez.

May or may not enter

BNG: Left wing. Galician secessionist. Almost 100% certain to support PSOE. Expected seats: 0-2

CC: Centre-right. Canarian nationalist. Almost 100% certain to NOT support PSOE. Expected seats: 0-1

FR: Far left. Catalan secessionist. Almost 100% certain to NOT support PSOE. Expected seats: 0-2

NCa: Centre-left. Canarian nationalist. Almost 100% certain to support PSOE. Expected seats: 0-1

PRC: Centre-left, but quite populist. Cantabria regionalist. Almost 100% certain to support PSOE. Expected seats: 0-1

Many thanks!

There's still polls, they just measure ***ahem*** people's fruit and vegetable preferences, or what hairstyle people like...

As said before, the "emojipanel" is a fake poll. There are polls commissioned by parties and other organizations, but they are not released. Also, there is a high degree of uncertainty everywhere.

last demoscopia / okdiario (04/26)

PSOE 27 (117)
PP 21 (84)
C 15 (51)
Vox 13 (41)
Podemos 12 (28)

So a very short majority (176) for the right.

So my 2 cents (in respectful way of course):

I think (and strongly hope) that vox is underestimated:

PSOE 25
PP 20
VoX 16
C 15
Podemos 12

Is Okdiario breaching the polling ban?

Is there any 'seat calculators'/estimators' out there? Like I said on my Twitter, D'Hondt ends up apportioning seats in a Tangential way (Hard to win low%, easy to win high%) but the 'midpoint' of those Tangential functions differs based on overall parties and your national distribution. I have a good feeling that the Right vote is going cut itself to pieces considering Vox's Andalusia numbers correlated linearly with PP+C's numbers, but I would like to confirm/get an estimate with a calculator.

Ok, so whats the seat target figure for combined right wing parties that gets Casado in as PM?  Somewhere in the low 170's?

After a quick research, I was able to find this, which somehow gives a rough estimation. It only allows you to change the main 5 parties and fixes the "others" percentage at 6% (which is too low in my opinion). Still, I guess it's good enough for a rough estimate.

https://politibot.io/juega-a-repartir-escanos-asi-se-asignaran-segun-el-voto-el-28a/

For PP-Cs-Vox, it's 176 (ie an absolute majority) or bust. 174 if you want to be technical and count NA+ separately.

They can't depend on any regional parties whatsoever, not even CC (which is usually very happy about making deals with PP!)

Not sure if these internal polls from PSOE and Podemos have been posted yet:

PSOE internal poll: PSOE 30-31%, PP 15-17%, Vox 13-16%, C's ?, Podemos ?
Podemos internal poll: PSOE 30%, Podemos 15%, PP 15%, C's 15%, Vox 15%

My read of these polls is that, on the one hand, there's every reason to believe that it's in the interests of both PSOE and Podemos to show a Vox surge in order to mobilize their base. It's noteworthy that both polls appear to be very similar, of course, but both parties have similar interests. Simultaneously, the debates were a trainwreck for PP and, frankly, for the C's as well, with both Rivera and, especially, Casado coming off as feuding clowns incapable of governing.

My updated prediction:

()

That would leave a massive 13% for „other“ parties.

Who would get that ?

PACMA and the regionalists. But it's going to be off either way, given the polling blackout, the bad polls in the first place, and the uncertain debate effects. I'm just guessing the right will slightly outperform the polls and be around 175 (not sure on which side...).

Obviously these "internal polls" are biased leaks. Yesterday I read about a PP internal poll giving 50 seats to Vox and a range between 60 and 120 seats to the PP. These informations must be taken with loads of salt.

Regarding the debates, they must be seen taking into account that every candidate is seeking to appeal a different audience. Casado tried a 'moderate' and 'institutional' approach on the first night and was overcome by Rivera's aggressiveness. So Rivera succeed in the eyes of his potential audience, that is to say among voters right of the centre. On second night, Casado sought a body-to-body combat with the aim to recover the lost ground. It can be argued the rightwing candidates showed a lamentable image of confrontation, if compared with the synergy between Sánchez and Iglesias.  However, it's highly unlikely the debates favour vote transfers between ideological blocs in the present context of extreme polarization.

Ideally PP C and VOX all get around 16%-18% from a seat optimization point of view for the Right wing forces which is what I am hoping for.  While I suspect VOX might be under-polled I think there is a chance it might be over-polled as pollsters overcompensate for what took place in Andalusia.  Also I think there might be last minute VOX->PP tactical voting if there is a belief that VOX might not cross the threshold to get seats. Hopefully I am wrong and VOX can have a strong election night.

Dk, does hairdressing preference reporting count?

okdiario.com/espana/cortes-pelo-raya-derecha-centro-o-barba-hipster-logran-ya-mas-votos-que-izquierdas-4035605

The Andorran Market has been a thing for years and no one in power has done anything to change it, despite it being public knowledge (and reported on every Spanish newspaper)

It seems as if this is going to be the official results page from the Interior Ministry:

https://www.resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Inicio/es

El Pais:

https://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/generales.html

El Mundo:

https://www.elmundo.es/elecciones/elecciones-generales/resultados

Polls are now open.

A first measurement of turnout will come at 14:00 local time.

36.9 million people are eligible to vote today, of which 34.8 million are in Spain and 2.1 million are Spanish citizens abroad.

Your optimism is duly noted.

The voting weather is great today, sunny and up to 30°C in the South and a bit cooler in the North:

()

Only 1 out of 60.038 precincts is not up and running yet.

https://www.resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Avances/Total-nacional/0/es

Update (10:54):

Now all 60.038 precincts are up and running.

This is interesting (according to me).
In the 2015 elections the left (PSOE, IU and Podemos later om UP) got 161 seats and in 2016 they got 156 seats and Electopanel predicts that the will get 162 this time. Left regionalist parties (ERC, EHB and Compromis) got 11 seats in 2015, 11 in 2016 and 19 this time (Compromis is standing alone this time). The left in total got 172 seats in 2015, 167 in 2016 and is predicted to get 171 this time. Not much change in three elections!

The right (PP and C's and this time Vox and NS) got 166 seats in 2015, 163 in 2016 and is predicted to get 169. Not much change.

Centreright regionalist parties (JPC earlier DEL and CDC, PNV and CC) got 15 seats in 2015, 14 in 2016 and is predicted to get 11 this time. Not much change there either.

I'm so bad at predictions and this is probably wrong, but at some point I'll get it right and look brilliant. So here it goes.

PSOE: 130
PP: 75
Cs: 45
Podemos: 35
Vox: 33
Otros: 32

PSOE-Podemos make a vote-and-supply deal with smaller parties to prop up a minority government.

To be fair 2015 and 2016 were 2 back to back elections so no surprise that there wasn't much change. The fact that 2019 may also be similar to those 2 is uncommon, but not exactly unprecedented.

There are other examples of 2 consecutive elections having similar results like 1977-1979 or 2004-2008.

Also, regarding where to watch the results, I'd personally recommend the private websites (El País or El Mundo; or really any Spanish news site) over the official website

The main issue is that for some reason the official websites for results separate the results of Podemos proper and their alliances. So this time you get "Podemos-IU-Equo" and "ECP-Guanyem el canvi" (in Catalonia) which is misleading.

It seems that my fears about turnout were a bit too pessimistic... (until now)

At 14:00h, turnout is up 4% from 2016 and reaches 41.4%

So if i’m reading the turnout numbers right, turnout is up most in both right-leaning regions (Castille,Valencia etc) and separatist leaning ones (Catalonia, Basque Country). Not so much in places like Andalusia. Does not seem great for PSOE?

My hunch is that would tend to dilute the vote share of Vox and the separatists, but who knows, I guess.

Turnout is up all across Spain. However the thing is that while turnout is up massively in Catalonia (in many places matching the turnout from the regional elections!), in the rest of Spain the increase is a more moderate one of about 4%

()

Within Catalonia it looks like a secessionist surge more than a unionist one, judging by the fact that Girona and Lleida are the provinces with higher turnout

Also, this preliminary turnout report is the highest since 1993 and 2nd highest in history. Turnout may well reach the mid 70s.

From a more detailed report, it looks like the right and the left are both turning out, just in different parts of the country.

Here's for example El Ejido, the one municipality where Vox won in the Andalusian regional election:

2016: 34.5%
2019: 40.7%

Compare that to Andalucia at large:

2016: 37.6%
2019: 38.9%

So in Andalucia we might see the same phenomenon as in the regional election where it is the right that flocks to the polls.

In Catalonia meanwhile while turnout is up everywhere, secessionist rural areas (like Vic) are up more than unionist areas (like L'Hospitalet)

Finally, decided to compare a rich neighbourhood in Madrid (Salamanca) to a poor/working class one (Villa-Vallecas). Turnout seems to have increased equally on both.

Just what we needed, more uncertainty :P

It's not hugely helpful in this context to look at autonomias anyway. When you look at turnout in a more granular or especially municipal level the picture is pretty interesting. PP hub Lugo and Vox base town of Almeria have only small turnout bumps. While leftist Alcocorn in Madrid has a more significant bump. It's also hard to predict what Catalonia will do, and a massive turnout in Barcelona could augur a major result for Podemos or the separatist parties.

But as a general rule the turnout is mostly up 3-5 points across the board without really favoring either the right or left.

This is meaningless observation anyway but the turnout is 1/8 higher than 2016 across Spain, and 1/3 higher in Catalonia. Quite impressive...

Was gonna say something like this, and it's also probably worth remarking that those areas in Aragon and Castilla y Leon that look like they are having big increases in turnout are also pretty sparsely inhabited. With the exception of Zaragoza, it will take pretty big swings in the likes of Teruel to move any seats at all.

Honestly, I wouldn't read anything into the reports at all. We always overreact to turnout reports, and get it wrong more often than right tbh.

When the voting will end?

20:00 CET in mainland Spain and Balearic Islands
20:00 GMT in Canary Islands

High turnout is always good news. regardless the final results (cross fingers). I voted minutes ago and there was more people in my polling place than previous elections. People is getting the importance of this general election and is going to vote.

At this rate next decade. Spain should just have elections every every month until someone gets a majority.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1122491926907957255?s=19

Here's another case of confusing turnout. Madrid's the most conservative of the bunch, but it has the average turnout. Frankly, if we remove Catalonia, it just looks like turnout is up everywhere by 2-4 points with a few exceptions.

Another good example of confusing turnout is Andalusia. On the surface, it looks bad for PSOE. But then on further analysis, the province with the highest turnout, Seville, is the only one where PSOE+AA had more votes then PP+C's+Vox in 2018.

The strong rise in turnout should be good news for VOX, as a lot of previously disappointed people seem to be coming into the fold now with that additional choice for them.

On the other hand, urban people will turn out against them - which might keep them "under control". I think my 17% for VOX should come pretty close to the actual results later during the night.

I wouldn't dare to predict anything, because my crystal ball is not sending clear signs to me. It seems the Steve Bannon's oracle is talking through a medium from Austria. Everything is possible, but it seems clear that it's imposible to avert intoxication

Once again, you demonstrate your lack of understanding about Spanish politics. Rural areas do not lean uniformity to the conservatives/centralists, and urban areas do not lean uniformly to the left. The rural south also has much more voters then the rural north, making both geographic 'regions' parities on the national level. Vox is likely to get a 'good' score in Madrid for instance. The only place turnout is truly surging compared to the nation is in Catalonia, which is rightly afraid of the centralists/federalist debate that has dominated this campaign.

Is Andalusia that confusing? In most places the turnout is sub par. The best places are Almeria and Seville. Almeria is obvious. As for Seville if PSOE turnout was strong you expect other high PSOE areas to see turnout increase well.  The solution to the riddle could be Seville was one of the best places for Podemos partner AA. Of course they could be turning out to vote for PSOE...

::)


VOX has only received 0.2% last time, so it is hard to tell where their strongholds are now that they could get ~15% today.

Turnout in Almeria, a Vox stronghold, is well below the national turnout bump.

Thanks to everyone for all the updates!

Does anyone have links for TV coverage online that won't be geoblocked?

Also am I right in saying that Spain has never had a coalition govt at the national level (as opposed to confidence/supply) since the return to democracy?

Thanks!

DC

Yes? And?

All of Andalusia has a lower increase in turnout compared to the rest of the country, Almeria is just the least worst with a 3.6 point increase, not far off the national average.

Anyway Vox tend to do better in areas that have low levels of absolute turnout.

If it's hard to tell where are the Vox strongholds, it should be hard to tell that Vox will get more than 15% (btw, this is the Steve Bannon's prediction). Hard to tell does not imply impossible to guess. The Andalusian results, examined at precinct level, could provide some clues.

Andalusian results indicate that Vox does better in typical right wing strongholds, don't know why this should change.

And honestly, your extreme lack of understanding of Spanish Politics wouldn't be so annoying if you weren't going to delight us with very insightful takes on Vox rise later tonight.

  I do buy into the idea of previous non-voters who lean strongly to the right being more likely to vote this time around with Vox being a viable choice, whereas in previous elections PP was the only viable choice.  So in theory a greater % of the vote going overall to right wing parties just because of this.
  

As much as I want this theory to be true I tend to think higher turnout should work to the benefit of the Left just like in 2004 and 2008.  So far the signs are not good for a Right wing victory.

So 2 hours and 15 minutes to closing.

How does this work - is it just the standard European “exits immieately, then actual counting” formula? If so, then how reliable are Spanish exits?

I actually think it will be like Finland with early vote tallies, although I think that there might be a couple of polls released at 2000. Oddly I don't think they are actually exit polls, per se.

Turnout is up nearly 10% at 6 PM!

18%(!) in Catalonia

What's fun is that literally nobody knows what that actually means for results given the novelty of Vox and where that turnout is especially high.

Catalonia's turnout is ridiculous. Even higher than the regional election right after article 155!

Big changes in the voting pattern compared to earlier. This is looking much better for left than right.

Why would Catalonians be so energized to vote this year? And what would make previous non-voters choose now to finally vote?

Fear is the best motivator. If if the map from earlier is still true, then the two provinces with the highest turnout increase from 2016 are Lerida and Gerona, which always vote separatist. The debate this entire campaign has been around Vox/C's/PP with their centralism, and Catalonia certainly doesn't wish to loose their federal rights.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1122538753728368646

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Also, whats going in valencia? Don't they have a provincial election concurent with the federal one today - so shouldn't they have the highest turnout?

But wouldn't that fear translate into a vote boost for the separists, but also some spillover to the leftist parties who are willing to at least in practice grant at least a little more autonomy?

Regional elections generally have lower turnout. No one who wasn't going to vote in the national election was going to vote in the regional one. So there is no reason for Valencia to increase more than everyone else.

Also, here's a historic analysis of early turnout reports

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Seems like turnout will be somewhere around 2008 levels (74%), which is quite high for what we are used to in the last decade. Unfortunately, beating 2004 (76%) seems unlikely; let alone 1996 (77%) or 1982 (80%)

https://twitter.com/el_pais/status/1122544726463393793

Higher turnout in Ceuta and Melilla (two cities in Africa) seems good for Vox

I mean, we're talking about 60,000 voters. If Vox was putting their electoral future on Ceuta and Melilla then they may not even get into parliament at all.

Well, 80% seems possible if there's no dropoff in the final 2 hours of voting. At least turnout Spain-wide (excl. Spains living abroad). Turnout incl. Spains abroad will be 2% lower than in mainland Spain.

For Ceuta/Melilla it depends on who is turning out. The cities are polarized on religious lines I think, with muslims voting left (on local elections they have their own separate parties though) and non muslims voting right.

If it's a surge on muslims voting, I could actually see PSOE winning those seats on strong vote splits. It wouldn't be unprecedented, they came close in Melilla in 2008 after all (and that's with no vote splitting)

If it's a surge on non-muslims (or even just the surge being equally distributed) then good news for Vox.

If there’s one thing even I as a relative novice to Spanish politics can be confident of it’s that this election will not hinge on the idiosyncrasies of the vote in Ceuta and Melilla...

I know that, but according to recent polling Vox has pretty big support in these two cities (in Ceuta it's even first), so maybe it's an indication of a wider trend in Spain.

Except that in the most conservative parts of Spain, where Vox would be expected to do well, the turnout bump isn't quite as strong as in the autonomous African cities. It seems that, as with Catalonia, it's a local phenomenon and not something that is being replicated elsewhere. The turnout is definitely higher across the board, but what makes those cities unique is that it is up more than in the conservative heartland or the southern coastal provinces.

I'm still not sure that it's accurate to say that Catalonia's turnout bomb is a separatist thing. I think it's more of a just Catatonian thing. Barcelona, which is not known for its rabid separatism, has a turnout spike equal to the region as a whole. I'm sure that we'll see separatist parties do well. I just wouldn't be surprised if the left wing parties also get a boost from the Catalonian vote.

Are there going to be any exit polls?

I don't think so. Only polls done during the last few days. That's what i recall Tack saying.

According to RTVE, 27 million people cast a ballot. A record number.

I was really off regarding turnout... Yikes.

Can someone explain the demographics of Vox voters and how that's different than PP voters?

Not much methinks. At least in their breakout election, Vox Votes correlated to PP+C's support, with a few exceptions in the migrant heavy areas.

- Podemos: 14,5% (46 députés)
- PSOE: 25,5% (105)
- C’s: 15% (51)
- PP: 19,3% (70)
- Vox: 13% (42)

http://electomania.es/exitpanel28a/

According to the polls, no bloc has anything close to a majority.

Gad tracking poll

PSOE - 116-121
PP - 69-73
C's - 48-49
PODEM - 42-45
VOX - 36-38
ERC - 13-14
JXC - 5
Front Republicà - 1

IMOP-Cadena COPE election day poll

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Keep in mind that these are not proper exit polls, but polls done during the campaign blackout period and published today. However the last 2 such polls were mostly accurate

LEFT: 158--166
RIGHT: 153-160
PSOE-C's: 164-170

*Prays for third option*

Those MOE's are huge O_o

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SocioMétrica/El Español has a majority in the MOE for PSOE+C's, and realistically there is a chance for PSOE+Podemos minority here

Excluding the Catalan separatist parties, wouldn't the smaller regionalist ones be more likely to support the left leaning bloc than right leaning?  Looks like it will be a mess and possibly another election later this year although I think smaller parties would be more likely to support left than right.  Right pretty much has to hit 176 or get very close to realistically govern.  And if they do hit that, do they have Popular Party or Citizens lead the way.  I would think Citizens would have a better chance of working with smaller parties than Popular Party.

Likewise if PSOE + Citizens have majority is there any chance Citizens will reverse their cordon sanitaire as there will probably a lot of pressure including from the EU for the two to work together since both are the most pro-EU.

The third option is probably the best, but unfortuantely it has been excluded by Ciudadanos.
If this is the actual result a PSOE/Podemos coalition with support of regional parties seems most likely

If left forms I believe that will be good news for minimum wage workers as they promise a 22% hike.  Terrible though if you make over 150,000 Euros as your taxes will go up.  In fact my understanding is for those making over 300,000 Euros, if PSOE + Podemos tax plan goes through, top marginal rates will be over 50% in 2/3 of Spain (sort of like what we have now in Canada for good or ill, and this tax hike wildly popular with most but hated by rich and economist mixed on idea).

Here's Electomania's "Exit Panel" for what it's worth. Definitely an outlier compared to everyone else

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The only way the right gets into power with these numbers is a new election, which isn't implausible given numbers like this. Assuming the accuracy of the polls, it pretty much comes down to whether Sanchez/Iglesias can at least coax the ERC and Bildu into a vote and supply agreement or whether Spain once again suffers new elections. Apart from the regionalism/separatism, there is a clear majority from the left here. The problem is that the separatism thing is a big thing.

How long till the results start to come through? I'm not sure if I can bear another late night watching early hope turn into crushing despair... :)

An hour.  I feel, I really feel, your pain.

In the next minutes, i think results will start coming in. By 22:00h, the overall image will be clear.

I was watching the "exit polls" on Spanish RTE TV, but was not sure if those were exit polls or something conducted over the previous days ?

Does anyone know if these are proper exit polls done today, or in the last days ?

I think they said they won't release data until the Canaries are done voting.

No exit polls. They are all tracking poll from the last few days.

Three day tracking polls. I have no clue why but Spain doesn't do exit polling.

Yeah, so another 40 mins.

Isn't it that you won't get anything until Canary Islands close at 21.00, even though votes would start to be counted?

The only proper regionalist parties that will apparently make it will be CC and UPN

UPN contested the election alongside PP and Cs as Navarra Suma so I doubt it.

CC hates Podemos so it's also very unlikely, though slightly less likely. CC is a Marxist party in the Groucho sense: "these are our principles, if you don't like them, we have others"; and they did abstain on Sánchez's confidence vote.

However I would not count on them

Hmm, let's wait for the actual vote count then ...

So hopefully we get a proper dump then, rather than freaking out about 6 tiny random municipalities in Castilla where VOX have done really well

But CC-C's-PSOE is reasonably likely, no?

Yeah their counting right now, but results bomb will come at 21.

Election day poll for the Valencian regional election. Unlike the general election ones, this one is VERY different from the earlier polls, so be ready for surprises

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No, Cs has repeatedly excluded a coalition with PSOE!

PP has lost Galicia for the first time ever, according to the polls.

In which direction?

No, because Cs is very against that. If Cs makes a 180 then yeah, it's possible; but I think Cs has gone too far to justify a 180

Compromís (Valencian nationalists) much higher than expected
Cs MUCH lower than expected (like half as much)
Vox overperforming
PP and PSOE slightly underperforming
Podemos slightly overperforming

Expect the map to be near 100% red considering these vote splits, but the block and seat map will be more telling.

From what we have now, it seems as if right-wing voters moved further right (and the right-wing parties all moved right) but moderate voters opted for the PSOE after all, with left-wing UP/PSOE swing voters coming home for UP after Sanchez' debate failure.

If (big if) this is accurate, C's are probably to blame for losing the election for the right by being way too open about how nationalist and right-wing they actually are. They shouldn't even be competing for voters with PP so much, they should also be competing with PSOE and then take their seats to the right.

anyone have a link to results?

BTW IMOP/COPEs Valencia exit poll has Compromis leading by .5%, but lower in seats.

Well, Compromis would suppport PSOE/Podemos of course but they only have one seat in this poll. And PNV (Basque nationalists) supported the PSOE government as well

I posted them earlier today (first results should come in ca. 20 minutes):