Talk Elections

It seems like the MO GOP is settled on white bread and steady Gov. Mike Parson for reelection.

However, former Gov. Eric Greitens may challenge Parson to get his job back after resigning due to scandal.

For the Democrats, I think Russ or Robin Carnahan would be good choices to take back the State House, since Claire McCaskill looks like her political career is over as she is a pundit now.

McCaskill is officially retired from politics.

Russ is probably done too, and Robin hasn’t run statewide since 2008.

I would say the best options are Nicole Galloway, Scott Sifton, Stephen Webber or (ideally) Jason Kander.

I think you meant to say run in 2010 or win in 2008

I completely forgot about 2010 for a reason.  One of the strongest Dem candidates in years against a generic R, and it had to be during a historic midterm.  I was pissed.

Nicole Galloway is probably the smartest option

But Dems would lose her state auditor seat and I think MO is just too Republican and polarized to elect a statewide Democrat, Claire McCaskill who has been in Missouri politics forever, was ousted by someone who spent less than 2 years in their job and drew concerns that he did not campaign well and was sleepwalking.

Galloway would appoint the vacancy in the auditors office to fill the remainder of her term. However, Galloway is highly unlikely to run for governor. We have that office solely because Tom Schweich died by suicide and the Republicans nominated the worst possible opponent imaginable again Galloway in 2018.

Saundra McDowell has been sued 7 times, did not meet the residency requirement, called Galloway a DOG in their debate, and is having her wages garnished.. yet she still got 44% of the statewide vote!

I am still 50/50 if Galloway's win was impressive or not. One one hand her opponent was an interesting character.  But on the other hand the auditors contest was way over shadowed by the US Senate and it was widely assumed whoever won the Senate contest would also win the Auditors contest.


No Robin and Russ Carnahan are NOT going back into politics lmao.. and Greitens is not going anywhere near a gop primary.

LOL, what makes Greitens think he has a chance? Even though it's a GOP primary, Parson should have this handily.

Is Greitens eligible to serving 2nd & 3rd non-consecutive terms ?

No, he gets two terms only.  Which is weird, because every other executive office has no term limits (except for State Treasurer, for some reason).

MO term limits are STUPID. Didn't Hearnes put the 2-term provision in there to succeed himself ? I heard he tried to get a 3rd term in there, but was prevented from doing so.

Do it! Go for it, Greitens! If he gets the nomination again it is probably a Democrats' only chance at winning. It would be lean R over likely R with Parson.

State Rep. Crystal Quade should run. The only Democrat to survive in MO-7, a very Republican district in which I live. Nicole Galloway should run. Fat chance Greitens runs again. His political career is over.

La'Ondrill "Chuck" Brown is the only candidate running for the Democratic nomination. Though he's very inexperienced, I've been watching his campaign and he seems to be Progressive. Claire McCaskill embracing Centrism and alienating Progressive voters in 2018 is why she lost. I voted for Jo Crain. We need a Progressive candidate in 2020 or Parson is going to walk away with this one.

Progressives are destroying the Dems in general. You need to be in the CENTER in order to win statewide elections.

What did Harry Truman say on May 17, 1952?

How did progressive ballot measures fare in Missouri in 2018?

Progressive ballot measures are widely popular, but rural whites in Missouri don't vote based on economic issues, they vote based on cultural issues and racial resentment.

A Sanders-style Democrat wouldn't do any better than a moderate Democrat in Missouri, because basically all Democrats are the same in the minds of the hicks in rural MO.

Compare Jason Kander's 2016 result to Claire McCaskill's 2018 result. Which candidate (1) won a higher vote share overall and (2) came closer to victory?

Ah yes, because Roy Blunt was totally not a weak incumbent, who did not take his challenge seriously

Yes, because Claire McCaskill was totally not an unpopular Senator hated by Missourians, who only won, because her 2012 opponent’s campaign imploded

Kander came slightly closer, but that's really not relevant. he certainly didn't campaign as a "true leftist", and he mostly did better because Roy Blunt was a weak candidate.

McCaskill lost because she was unpopular and Missouri has shifted even further to the right since 2016... if Kander had been the Senate nominee in 2018, I doubt he would have done substantially better than McCaskill, and he certainly still would have lost.

McCaskill and Heidi lost due to balance of power shift in the Senate. There were two females added in NV and AZ and two females subtracted. 

MO is still Democratic friendly outside of a Carnahan or McCaskill running. The state want fresh face

Steve Stenger would be good too, if he ran.

What are Parson's popularity ratings so far ?

It's true though. I'm not going to take it from a Republican from Florida that it isn't. McCaskill was supposed to be the Democratic nominee, yet she was running like a Republican.
As of January 2019: 44% Approve, 18% Disapprove, and 37% Don't Know.

MO is no longer a swing state

If McCaskill actually voted for single-payer healthcare and other liberal ideas, Atlas' dream of seeing her Blanched, would have became a reality

There are just not enough non-Republicans in Missouri anymore, the state is basically Safe GOP

DEMS need to run a Candidate, we can win this seat with Harris-Beto ticket

The state looks gone for the Dems for the foreseeable future. Maybe when the suburbs get bluer they can win, but the rural areas are gone.

They should focus on MO-02 rather than the Governor’s mansion.

In other words: you're suggesting the MO Dems to leave the Show Me State altogether ?

No. All I said is that it would be difficult to run.

MO-02 is the only race we should focus on.

I think Democrats should compete in MO.

Steve Stenger or Stephen Webber would be good, especially if the Carnahans are finished with politics.

Thank God you're not a Democratic strategist.

Bahahahahahaha.  That's the way that you manage to lose STL county in a statewide election.  That would be a total blowout.

Dems should only compete in Missouri if they’re winning by 10+ nationally. Even then it would only be to drag the gubernatorial candidate over the line.

Explain to me what is wrong with Stenger or Webber, and why you think Democrats should cede the country? Remember a 50-state campaign strategy?

I mean such a strategy is a poor one unless you’re winning by so much that it doesn’t matter.

Dude... STL county is one of the four counties MO Dems are guaranteed to win in and that only gets you around 38% (Hillary Clinton).  It's the largest county in the state, and the home of the dem base.  If you can't win in STL county as a Dem, ur not winning the state.
Stenger is incredibly unpopular in the county, and he barely won his last election.  In addition, he's going through some criminal problems of his own.  He'd get crushed.
I totally agree with you that the dems should not cede Missouri, and Webber would be a great candidate.  The idea of Stenger as a viable statewide candidate is so laughable, however, that I had to point it out.

I don't know who Stenger is but why is he so unpopular?

Stenger is the Democrat county executive in charge of St. Louis County, which is the largest county in Missouri.  He's got lots of ethics controversies, clashed with his council members, and is just unable to accomplish anything.  Now, he's under criminal investigation.  The guy isn't popular among the people he's in charge of for these reasons, and without a sizable floor in STL county, you aren't winning in Missouri.

If not Stenger, if the Carnahans, if not McCaskill, or Galloway, why not Susan Montee or Chris Koster again?

Koster was endorsed by the NRA, I wonder if that will be a big problem.

I actually have MO-02 as Safe R for 2020. While I was proven right on my thoughts last cycle.... my thoughts have changed for the next cycle.

Considering that Koster and Kander lost races many thought Democrats were favored in and that McCaskill lost by 6 points and Galloway barely garnered 50% of the vote against a fraud will make Democrats hesitant to contest anything in Missouri.

Though I would agree with you Scott Sifton should run for MO-02. If he does I will revisit my currently rating which is based on lack of resources. Sifton may only be a one term congressman but at least it could raise his profile for a future statewide run.

In other words, I have this at Likely GOP Hold with Parson winning a 1st full 4-year term.

All indications are that Sifton is going to run.

Always interesting to see you guys commenting on Missouri politics to say the least.

are you drunk?

Suggesting Steve Stenger as a statewide candidate is suggestive.

Yeah, Democrats shouldn’t contest any statewide office in MO after they won a statewide race in 2018, almost beat an incumbent Republican Senator in 2016 even as Trump was carrying the state by 18 points, and an unpopular Democratic incumbent lost her Senate race by 5 points.

unsure what bronz will suggest next.

But... taking a guess that within 4 months he will suggest Maria Chappelle-Nadal as the person to defeat Parson.

Agreed

Sifton could perform well in St. Louis County, but his performance in the rurals (especially SEMO) would be dismal. You’re right—MO-02 is a much better option.

Does bronz still think Steve Stenger is a great statewide candidate?

https://fox2now.com/2019/04/29/sam-page-sworn-in-as-new-st-louis-county-executive/

So, Wikipedia lists "Erotic Eric" as potential contender? That'll be hard...

I didn't know he was corrupt. I thought he was a clean candidate.

Why doesn't Chris Koster run?

Everyone in St. Louis knew Stenger was corrupt!

Koster is much too busy making money at Centene to run another doomed campaign for governor.

Steve Stenger? Corrupt.
Claire McCaskill? No. Lost 2018 reelection bid, could have and should have ran in 2016 for governor.
Maria Chappelle-Nadal? No.
Nicole Galloway? No.
Robin Carnahan? No.
Russ Carnahan? No.
Jason Kander? No.

Stephen Webber, Susan Montee, Chris Koster? Possibly.

Is it possible the MO Dems would leave Parson virtually unopposed in 2020 ?

It's very unlikely. They will almost certainely find a sacrificial lamb.

Democrats may do well in 2024 or 2028

If Kander's health issues get sorted out he would be the best candidate for the democrats in 2020, otherwise I would think Galloway would rather wait until 2024 than face an incumbent

I don’t think Kander will run again for office

If Parson wins in 2020, can he run again in 2024?

Missouri’s new abortion ban has Nicole Galloway leaning toward campaign for governor (https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article231153708.html)

Moves to tossup should Galloway win. Molly Kelly, Lisa Brown and Galloway may be next Govs

She probably needs to find another issue to run on because abortion is not a winning issue in a such pro life state

I agree that Galloway is moving towards a run, and would likely win the primary if she did so. Missouri is often surprising to outsiders down ballot, and honestly, abortion is not typically the dividing line here in statewide campaigns. Parson will be a hard nut to crack, especially with Trump on the ballot, but Missouri Democrats have a lot of experience running campaigns against more establishment Republican candidates than they do against an unknown flush with outside money like Greitens. Also, Galloway doesn't have to win to make a big impact: if it is close, she will likely be up in MO-02 by quite a bit and could possibly knock off Wagner, which would make every Missouri Democrat cheer.

McCaskill won MO 2nd, still dems didn’t defeat Wagner

I mean.. Wagner's opponent was a literal "some dude".

Democrats should start rebuilding the bench in the Midwest by targeting MO-02 and IN-05 as rentals and credible campaigns would help with winning some down ballot legislative or local offices as well.

Before anyone gets excited about Galloway we have to remember who her opponent was. Even if it is cancelled out by the fact we had a counter wave, Galloway was appointed in a somewhat controversial matter, and the Auditors race was way overshadowed by the Senate Race.

But her victory last year proved my point. Missouri Democrats could win statewide by efficiently campaigning in the metro areas and reducing GOP margins in some areas north of the Missouri River.

Galloway, Lisa Brown and Molly Kelly can win in 2020. Whereas Dems with Roe on line can lose NC and MT possibly.  Cooper is vulnerable as well, and not up by 15

Whoever said Cooper of NC is vulnerable is CRAZY.