Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/State Elections => Topic started by: Sestak on March 26, 2019, 11:21:26 PM



Title: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Sestak on March 26, 2019, 11:21:26 PM
So, tonight was all around pretty good for Dems in this department (result in WISC, whatever it may be, notwithstanding).

Next week is much more boring - 3 primaries in Florida and an R vs R race in Georgia.

Luckily we’ll probably have Israeli election results to discuss that day.


Old thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=288367.0


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: ON Progressive on March 26, 2019, 11:23:10 PM
It does look like it might just be a Kiley-Dahle race (although any combination involving any combination of Kiley/Dahle/Pflueger is not impossible). Hopefully Kiley wins in that case.

What makes Kiley preferable?

Kiley is a bit more moderate (not saying much), and his assembly seat opening up would lead to a possibly competitive special election.

Is HD-06 less republican than HD-01 overall?

Significantly less.

AD-06: 52-41 Trump, trending D
AD-01: 57-36 Trump, trending R


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 26, 2019, 11:27:49 PM
SD-1 60% in:

Steve Baird
(Party Preference: DEM)
8,606   
6.0%
Silke Pflueger
(Party Preference: DEM)
37,940   
26.5%
Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
39,726   
27.8%
Theodore Dziuba
(Party Preference: REP)
2,662   
1.9%
Rex Hime
(Party Preference: REP)
12,812   
9.0%
Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
41,206   
28.8%

If this is seriously going to be R v R, maybe the California Republican Party has finally stopped declining.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on March 26, 2019, 11:27:50 PM
It does look like it might just be a Kiley-Dahle race (although any combination involving any combination of Kiley/Dahle/Pflueger is not impossible). Hopefully Kiley wins in that case.

Ah ok then, definitely go Kiley.
What makes Kiley preferable?

Kiley is a bit more moderate (not saying much), and his assembly seat opening up would lead to a possibly competitive special election.

Is HD-06 less republican than HD-01 overall?

Significantly less.

AD-06: 52-41 Trump, trending D
AD-01: 57-36 Trump, trending R

Ah well, go Kiley then (between the two of them).

Also damn, Dalhe's ahead of Pflueger now.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Fubart Solman on March 26, 2019, 11:28:09 PM
There seems to be a lull in returns; I'll work to add in actual vote numbers as well as updated percentages by county.

Alpine has a bit over 100 votes in. Pflueger leads there, as is expected for Alpine. Overall, it's 15-40-24% Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 24-63-38 votes Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

El Dorado is still 35-28-19 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. No update on reporting either. 11,372-8,853-6,085 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Lassen: no votes yet.

Modoc: 9-10-70 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 146-173-1,184 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Not shocking.

Nevada: 10-40-35 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 2,255-8,754-7,655 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Pflueger is from Truckee, located in Nevada County.

Placer: 41-26-16 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 13,761-8,696-5,233 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Kiley's home county. It's larger than a fair number of the counties in Dahle's district, but the senate district does not include Roseville.

Plumas claims 100% reporting. 14-25-45 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 737-1,265-2,326 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Sacramento claims nearly 100% reporting, but earlier caveats about Sac County are still in play. The portions of Sac County in this senate district are the more conservative (though somewhat trending Dem) parts of the county. 45-26-10 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 9,022-5,213-1,972 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Shasta: 16-14-53 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 2,658-2,306-8,651 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Sierra: 14-26-46 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 126-244-424 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Claims 100% reporting

Siskiyou claims about 50% reporting. 11-26-46 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 837-1,905-3,421 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Current Totals: 28.8%-26.5%-27.8% Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 41,206-37,940-39,726 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Narrow lead for Kiley and Dahle, but still very much a three-way race between them and Pflueger for the top two spots.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Fubart Solman on March 26, 2019, 11:39:45 PM
Lassen just dumped a big load of Dahle votes. 6-12-71 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 243-460-2,789 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

The current standings overall are 28.7%-26.5%-27.9% Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 41,374-38,096-40,200 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Pflueger is about 2,000 votes down.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 26, 2019, 11:59:12 PM
SD-33 - 7% in:

Al Austin, II
(Party Preference: DEM)
981   
4.8%
Thomas Jefferson Cares
(Party Preference: DEM)
614   
3.0%
Denise Diaz
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,291   
6.3%
Chris Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
507   
2.5%
Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
6,208   
30.4%
Ana Maria Quintana
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,559   
7.6%
Ali Saleh
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,599   
7.8%
José Luis Solache
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,337   
6.5%
Leticia Vasquez Wilson
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,154   
5.6%
Martha Flores Gibson
(Party Preference: REP)
1,576   
7.7%
Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
3,303   
16.2%
Cesar Flores
(Party Preference: GRN)
309   
1.5%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 27, 2019, 12:25:34 AM
72% in:

Steve Baird
(Party Preference: DEM)
8,770   
5.9%
Silke Pflueger
(Party Preference: DEM)
38,714   
26.1%
Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
42,312   
28.6%
Theodore Dziuba
(Party Preference: REP)
2,941   
2.0%
Rex Hime
(Party Preference: REP)
13,293   
9.0%
Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
42,037   
28.4%



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: smoltchanov on March 27, 2019, 12:28:45 AM
Good for Democrats, that they have clear frontrunner in SD-33. Otherwise - race could easily go into R_R run-off... And in SD-1 Democrats must root for Kiley now...


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 27, 2019, 12:31:38 AM
30% in:

Al Austin, II
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,023   
4.6%
Thomas Jefferson Cares
(Party Preference: DEM)
652   
2.9%
Denise Diaz
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,412   
6.3%
Chris Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
534   
2.4%
Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
6,705   
30.1%
Ana Maria Quintana
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,751   
7.9%
Ali Saleh
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,780   
8.0%
José Luis Solache
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,576   
7.1%
Leticia Vasquez Wilson
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,264   
5.7%
Martha Flores Gibson
(Party Preference: REP)
1,695   
7.6%
Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
3,560   
16.0%
Cesar Flores
(Party Preference: GRN)
328   
1.5%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 27, 2019, 12:33:45 AM
In the 33rd, Dems are winning 75%-24%. In the 1st, GOP is winning 68%-32%.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on March 27, 2019, 01:00:45 AM
Well, hopefully Dem votes in this district go to Kiley. Big missed opportunity if they don’t.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 27, 2019, 01:07:50 AM
85% in:

Al Austin, II
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,138   
4.2%
Thomas Jefferson Cares
(Party Preference: DEM)
700   
2.6%
Denise Diaz
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,941   
7.1%
Chris Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
622   
2.3%
Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
8,134   
29.8%
Ana Maria Quintana
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,376   
8.7%
Ali Saleh
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,489   
9.1%
José Luis Solache
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,999   
7.3%
Leticia Vasquez Wilson
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,439   
5.3%
Martha Flores Gibson
(Party Preference: REP)
1,920   
7.0%
Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
4,131   
15.1%
Cesar Flores
(Party Preference: GRN)
402   
1.5%



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on March 27, 2019, 01:09:53 AM
85% in:

Al Austin, II
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,138   
4.2%
Thomas Jefferson Cares
(Party Preference: DEM)
700   
2.6%
Denise Diaz
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,941   
7.1%
Chris Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
622   
2.3%
Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
8,134   
29.8%
Ana Maria Quintana
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,376   
8.7%
Ali Saleh
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,489   
9.1%
José Luis Solache
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,999   
7.3%
Leticia Vasquez Wilson
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,439   
5.3%
Martha Flores Gibson
(Party Preference: REP)
1,920   
7.0%
Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
4,131   
15.1%
Cesar Flores
(Party Preference: GRN)
402   
1.5%



So Gonzalez is basically guaranteed this seat.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: smoltchanov on March 27, 2019, 01:09:59 AM
Well, hopefully Dem votes in this district go to Kiley. Big missed opportunity if they don’t.

Absolutely.... Kiley is a conservative, of course, but, at least - sane. Dahle - isn't....


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on March 27, 2019, 01:11:09 AM
Well, hopefully Dem votes in this district go to Kiley. Big missed opportunity if they don’t.

Absolutely.... Kiley is a conservative, of course, but, at least - sane. Dahle - isn't....

More importantly, though, is the competitiveness of the vacated House seat.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Fubart Solman on March 27, 2019, 01:20:38 AM
Not much has changed since Wulfric's last update:

Brian D. Dahle (Party Preference: REP) 42,807 28.7%

Kevin Kiley (Party Preference: REP) 42,302 28.3%


Silke Pflueger (Party Preference: DEM) 38,979 26.1%

Rex Hime (Party Preference: REP) 13,443 9.0%

Steve Baird (Party Preference: DEM) 8,815 5.9%

Theodore Dziuba (Party Preference: REP) 2,979 2.0%

Kiley and Dahle are currently in the lead, but Pflueger may still have a shot depending on late arriving ballots. I'll try to keep you folks updated once a day or so.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Holmes on March 27, 2019, 01:23:22 AM
Commentary of the night goes to Wulfric who said the most Republican, white and rural senate district in California potentially going R v R means the CA GOP might have ended its decline.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: ON Progressive on March 27, 2019, 01:35:26 AM
Commentary of the night goes to Wulfric who said the most Republican, white and rural senate district in California potentially going R v R means the CA GOP might have ended its decline.

Can’t be a special election without Wulfric making galaxy brain takes.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: smoltchanov on March 27, 2019, 01:38:44 AM
Well, hopefully Dem votes in this district go to Kiley. Big missed opportunity if they don’t.

Absolutely.... Kiley is a conservative, of course, but, at least - sane. Dahle - isn't....

More importantly, though, is the competitiveness of the vacated House seat.

That too. But most likely it will still stay Republican.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: smoltchanov on March 27, 2019, 04:00:54 AM
Dahle and Kiley in run-off. Leans Kiley if Democrats will not do dumb thing......


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 27, 2019, 07:54:54 AM
The thing that really makes that take Galaxy brain is the California late votes, which always lean Democrat. Congresswoman Kim can tell you how the Day of vote always matches the late vote.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: lfromnj on March 27, 2019, 08:29:54 AM
The thing that really makes that take Galaxy brain is the California late votes, which always lean Democrat. Congresswoman Kim can tell you how the Day of vote always matches the late vote.

I am pretty sure in the Orange county commisonor race the late votes Leaned R or it went like Leaning R and only the very last leaned D.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 27, 2019, 09:02:21 AM
It's over. Everything is in aside from late stuff, it won't be enough. R v R


Steve Baird
(Party Preference: DEM)
9,035
5.8%
Silke Pflueger
(Party Preference: DEM)
40,304
25.8%
Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
44,764
28.7%

Theodore Dziuba
(Party Preference: REP)
3,222
2.1%
Rex Hime
(Party Preference: REP)
14,223
9.1%
Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
44,519


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 27, 2019, 09:05:27 AM
At least this one worked out

Al Austin, II
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,177
4.1%
Thomas Jefferson Cares
(Party Preference: DEM)
725
2.5%
Denise Diaz
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,999
7.0%
Chris Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
636
2.2%
Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
8,700
30.6%

Ana Maria Quintana
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,461
8.7%
Ali Saleh
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,577
9.1%
José Luis Solache
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,060
7.2%
Leticia Vasquez Wilson
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,479
5.2%
Martha Flores Gibson
(Party Preference: REP)
1,964
6.9%
Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
4,224
14.9%

Cesar Flores
(Party Preference: GRN)
432
1.5%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 27, 2019, 09:05:59 AM
Next Elections are the LA runoffs on Saturday.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Politician on March 27, 2019, 09:08:52 AM
Predictions are LaCombe +10 and Aucoin +10.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Holmes on March 27, 2019, 09:14:24 AM
The thing that really makes that take Galaxy brain is the California late votes, which always lean Democrat. Congresswoman Kim can tell you how the Day of vote always matches the late vote.

Hard to say, since like I said, it’s the most white, rural and Republican senate district in the state. It’ll probably buck expected trends.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Fubart Solman on March 27, 2019, 11:04:01 AM
The thing that really makes that take Galaxy brain is the California late votes, which always lean Democrat. Congresswoman Kim can tell you how the Day of vote always matches the late vote.

Hard to say, since like I said, it’s the most white, rural and Republican senate district in the state. It’ll probably buck expected trends.

This isn’t “Avalanche” Ami Bera’s US House district, that’s for sure. I won’t say it’s over until it’s over, but the Pflueger campaign should probably be looking at packing things up.

Well, hopefully Dem votes in this district go to Kiley. Big missed opportunity if they don’t.

Absolutely.... Kiley is a conservative, of course, but, at least - sane. Dahle - isn't....

More importantly, though, is the competitiveness of the vacated House seat.

California Democrats struggle with winning Clinton +5 assembly seats, let alone one Trump won by double digits. This will be another snoozer.

I think it will be “surprisingly close” to outsiders. Aka 54-46 if it’s a Dem vs a Rep in the general.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 27, 2019, 03:15:41 PM
Maine State Rep. Dale Denno (D-45) has resigned to seek treatment for cancer. Special likely coming in June. Denno won his second term in November by 30 points and 1,700 votes (a lot in tiny Maine House districts).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Theodore on March 28, 2019, 07:59:33 AM
Maine State Rep. Dale Denno (D-45) has resigned to seek treatment for cancer. Special likely coming in June. Denno won his second term in November by 30 points and 1,700 votes (a lot in tiny Maine House districts).

Very sad, I hope he gets better soon


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Fubart Solman on March 28, 2019, 10:53:51 AM
The Sacramento Bee reports that counting in CA’s 1st Senate District should be done by April 4th, one week from today. Ballots are likely still coming in. (https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article228465849.html)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: smoltchanov on March 30, 2019, 01:56:57 AM
Waiting with interest results in Louisiana's HD-18. Because, IMHO - this district is one of the few "atypical" districts in the whole country: district really suited and willing to go for a rather conservative (in real, not modern, where Dianne Feinstein is a "conservative", sense of this word) Democrat. Previous Democratic representative was moderate conservative (again - in real sense of these words), and such Democratic candidates are the best here. It's similar in some way to some other "backwater districts", still existing here and there. The best example for me remains Florida's Liberty county: absolutely rural, with 70+% Democratic registration, electing (IIRC) Democrats only for local offices, and, at the same time - 19,75% for HRC, 23.34% - for Bill Nelson, and 19,65% for Andrew Gillum. HD-18 has substantially more Blacks, and still went for "local liberal" Mary Landrieu (51.28%) in 2014, but -  strongly rejected HRC 2 years later..


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 30, 2019, 11:49:46 AM
LA Runoff Results: https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/graphical/

Polls close at 9 ET. We've got 3 leg races and 2 judicial races to keep your attention.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Badger on March 30, 2019, 04:38:34 PM
Commentary of the night goes to Wulfric who said the most Republican, white and rural senate district in California potentially going R v R means the CA GOP might have ended its decline.

Yeah , that was truly facepalm Worthy even by his standards.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: ON Progressive on March 30, 2019, 08:03:50 PM
Here were the final early voting numbers in HD-18 and HD-62:




HD-18's primary had a combined 75% Dem vote between 4 Dems, while HD-62 had the lone R get 45.5% with 30.8% going to the Indy and the remaining 23.7% going to the three Democrats.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Continential on March 30, 2019, 08:07:26 PM
I live in PA-37 and I swear, I sort of like D. Raja.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Politician on March 30, 2019, 08:15:53 PM

Looks like this is over.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 30, 2019, 08:39:22 PM
Judge, Court of Appeal -- 2nd Circuit, 2nd Dist., Election Section 2
9 of 122 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Jason Trevor Brown (REP)   17.69%   691
"Jeff" Thompson (REP)   82.31%   3,216
State Representative -- 17th Representative District
0 of 27 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Rodney McFarland, Sr. (DEM)   41.19%   465
"Pat" Moore (DEM)   58.81%   664
State Representative -- 18th Representative District
3 of 41 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 3 of 4 parishes
Click here for Results by Parish
Tammi G. Fabre (REP)   26.97%   558
Jeremy S. LaCombe (DEM)   73.03%   1,511
State Representative -- 62nd Representative District
9 of 64 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Roy Daryl Adams (IND)   46.42%   1,050
Dennis Aucoin (REP)   53.58%   1,212
District Judge -- 24th Judicial District Court, ES 1, Div. E
6 of 82 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Frank A. Brindisi (REP)   58.26%   878
Christy Howley (DEM)   41.74%   629


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: DINGO Joe on March 30, 2019, 09:10:58 PM
LaCombe wins with just under 70% and Roy Daryl beats Aucoin.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 30, 2019, 09:13:15 PM
Projected Winners in Bold:

Judge, Court of Appeal -- 2nd Circuit, 2nd Dist., Election Section 2
72 of 122 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Jason Trevor Brown (REP)   21.97%   1,655
"Jeff" Thompson (REP)   78.03%   5,877
State Representative -- 17th Representative District
All 27 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Rodney McFarland, Sr. (DEM)   36.75%   1,398
"Pat" Moore (DEM)   63.25%   2,406
State Representative -- 18th Representative District
39 of 41 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Tammi G. Fabre (REP)   32.37%   2,013
Jeremy S. LaCombe (DEM)   67.63%   4,205
State Representative -- 62nd Representative District
56 of 64 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Roy Daryl Adams (IND)   54.06%   2,614
Dennis Aucoin (REP)   45.94%   2,221
District Judge -- 24th Judicial District Court, ES 1, Div. E
51 of 82 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Frank A. Brindisi (REP)   57.40%   2,586
Christy Howley (DEM)   42.60%   1,919


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: ON Progressive on March 30, 2019, 09:27:11 PM
JBE has to be very happy with the state legislative results tonight.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on March 30, 2019, 09:56:34 PM
I hope Roy Adams caucuses with us.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 30, 2019, 10:17:56 PM
Wrapping Up:

 
64 of 64 precincts reporting - 100%
absentee reporting - 100%   Votes
2,925   Roy Daryl Adams (IND)  54%
2,529   Dennis Aucoin (REP)  46%
Total: 5,454
Unofficial Turnout: 17.7%
District Judge -- 24th Judicial District Court, ES 1, Div. E
 
82 of 82 precincts reporting - 100%
absentee reporting - 100%   Votes
3,625   Frank A. Brindisi (REP)  57%
2,762   Christy Howley (DEM)  43%
Total: 6,387
Unofficial Turnout: 7.1%


-------------


More elections on 4/2 - ME HD 52, PA SD 37, MS HD 101 Runoff (R v R)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 30, 2019, 10:31:55 PM
TITANIUM D LOUISIANA


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: ON Progressive on March 30, 2019, 11:29:16 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 30, 2019, 11:29:46 PM


()

Its fairly clear that the dem voters pushed the Indie over the top here. 


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: smoltchanov on March 31, 2019, 12:31:49 AM


()

Its fairly clear that the dem voters pushed the Indie over the top here. 

Sure. Adams ran as typical southern populist: solid conservative on most social issues (100% pro-life, for example), but - more moderate on economy. So it was only natural for Democrats to support HIM in run-off. But- in addition to Democratic support he got supported by his Republican predecessor in this seat as well (though he was a Republican, he was, essentially, of the same type as Adams, and frequently quarreled with more "pure" members of his party).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Brittain33 on March 31, 2019, 10:55:22 AM
It would surprise me if Adams chose to caucus with the Dems since they're a minority and likely to stay one.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on March 31, 2019, 11:02:16 AM
I live in PA-37 and I swear, I sort of like D. Raja.

LOL I'm going to hit a big fat (X) on that one.

The guy is clinically insane.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: smoltchanov on March 31, 2019, 02:39:58 PM
It would surprise me if Adams chose to caucus with the Dems since they're a minority and likely to stay one.

Me too. He ran as more centrist candidate compared with AuCoin, but still - rather conservative. And, as i said above, support from his Republican predecessor was an important element of his campaign. Most likely he will stay Indie. Less likely - will join Republicans (though they will not be happy, that he beat their "official" candidate). Least likely - joins Democrats


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Comrade Funk on March 31, 2019, 02:43:46 PM
I live in PA-37 and I swear, I sort of like D. Raja.

LOL I'm going to hit a big fat (X) on that one.

The guy is clinically insane.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on March 31, 2019, 09:26:35 PM
Wow, completely didn’t realize there were specials yesterday. Goddammit Louisiana, you just had to be ahead of the curve on weekend elections.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on March 31, 2019, 11:32:54 PM
I really want Iovino to beat that pos Raja.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 01, 2019, 10:30:21 PM
I really want Iovino to beat that pos Raja.

Tbf, I'd be quite shocked if she doesn't blow him out of the water.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on April 02, 2019, 08:03:32 AM
I really want Iovino to beat that pos Raja.

Tbf, I'd be quite shocked if she doesn't blow him out of the water.

Good, keep our fingers crossed 🤞


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 06:38:33 PM
Polls close in 20 minutes here in PGH. Praying for an Iovino win!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 06:42:34 PM
So Reschenthaler's PA seat is the big contest today, right?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on April 02, 2019, 06:42:52 PM
Polls close in 20 minutes here in PGH. Praying for an Iovino win!
Me too dude, Iovino should pull it off but does she pull a decent margin?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Nyvin on April 02, 2019, 06:43:49 PM
So Reschenthaler's PA seat is the big contest today, right?

That and the WI Supreme Court


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 06:44:57 PM
So Reschenthaler's PA seat is the big contest today, right?

That and the WI Supreme Court

I meant for State Legs lol. Yeah WI SC and Chicago runoffs are also today, but don't go in this thread.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 06:46:33 PM
PA stuff is here: https://decisiondeskhq.com/election-results-wisconsin-supreme-court-chicago-mayor-pa-sd-37/

This twitter should give us results for Maine and Mississippi eventually: https://twitter.com/electionwatchus?lang=en

Polls close at the top of the hour.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 06:47:57 PM
Polls close in 20 minutes here in PGH. Praying for an Iovino win!
Me too dude, Iovino should pull it off but does she pull a decent margin?

I’d imagine. This is the second time Raja is running for the seat, he lost the first time. Plus, he was whooped in a Wagner-2018 style for Allegheny commissioner in 2012.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 06:51:56 PM
Polls close in 20 minutes here in PGH. Praying for an Iovino win!
Me too dude, Iovino should pull it off but does she pull a decent margin?

I’d imagine. This is the second time Raja is running for the seat, he lost the first time. Plus, he was whooped in a Wagner-2018 style for Allegheny commissioner in 2012.

Wasn’t the Allegheny CE race after that? Cuz he lost the senate seat in 2012 (back when it was much more Republican in its voting habits than it is now, funny enough). He underperformed Mitt Romney of all people by like 15% lol

Something like that. Point is, Iovino should win the seat comfortably. I’m still nervous, but my worries are probably going to be for nothing.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Nyvin on April 02, 2019, 06:58:28 PM
Which of the candidates in the Chicago mayorial race is the Democrat. I expect them to win easily.

They're both Democrats, but Lightfoot is generally considered the progressive.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 07:00:03 PM
Which of the candidates in the Chicago mayorial race is the Democrat. I expect them to win easily.

Well first off, it’s “nonpartisan”, but both the candidates are Democrats. Second off, we have a thread for the mayoral race.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 07:01:59 PM
Polls have closed in PA SD-37.

First off: an anecdotal turnout nugget that shows very good news for Iovino:



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on April 02, 2019, 07:08:08 PM
If Democrats win this Pennsylvania Election, and also the Wisconsin Election (they need to just win the Pennsylvania Election though they need a substantial margin in the Wisconsin Election), it will be time to call the whole 2020 Presidential Race for the Democratic nominee.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 07:08:45 PM
If Democrats win this Pennsylvania Election, and also the Wisconsin Election (they need to just win the Pennsylvania Election though they need a substantial margin in the Wisconsin Election), it will be time to call the whole 2020 Presidential Race for the Democratic nominee.

Quoting for future use, given how wrong your 2016 and 2018 predictions were.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: IceSpear on April 02, 2019, 07:18:56 PM
If Democrats win this Pennsylvania Election, and also the Wisconsin Election (they need to just win the Pennsylvania Election though they need a substantial margin in the Wisconsin Election), it will be time to call the whole 2020 Presidential Race for the Democratic nominee.

()


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 07:25:57 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 07:26:52 PM


As expected. At least we haven't started off with catastrophe.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 07:31:42 PM
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     52.3%   146
D Raja (Republican)     47.7%   133
1 of 224 (0%) Precincts Reporting, 279 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 07:34:43 PM
The first votes are coming out of Pleasant Hills, which was Trump +6, Casey +9, and Wolf + 12, so this is very good for Iovino.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on April 02, 2019, 07:36:25 PM
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     52.3%   146
D Raja (Republican)     47.7%   133
1 of 224 (0%) Precincts Reporting, 279 Total Votes

For reference, Bob Casey won this precinct by 9% in 2018. And this precinct is a bit to the right of the district.
so an underperformance, but not in loser territory.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on April 02, 2019, 07:36:38 PM
This is a sign of a close race.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 07:36:40 PM
Looking solid so far.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 07:41:06 PM
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     54.7%   1,474
D Raja (Republican)     45.3%   1,223
12 of 224 (5%) Precincts Reporting, 2,697 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 07:42:53 PM
Where's this vote coming from?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on April 02, 2019, 07:43:08 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on April 02, 2019, 07:43:10 PM

Hardly. Casey won the seat by 12%, so if this precinct is representative (big if), that would point to a 7 or 8% Iovino win.

Anything less than 12.5% is a close race.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 07:43:36 PM
Team Raja not at all confident about tonight



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: LimoLiberal on April 02, 2019, 07:44:11 PM
I'm not sure if I like the early numbers so far... Iovino doing better than Clinton, but much worse than Lamb in some Allegheny precincts.

I'm looking at this map for reference: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 07:44:37 PM
Team Raja not at all confident about tonight



Could be trying to expectation-set. Just keep in mind.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 07:45:18 PM
Team Raja not at all confident about tonight



Could be trying to expectation-set. Just keep in mind.

Or they’re not confident they’re going to win.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on April 02, 2019, 07:46:06 PM
<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>
Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: LimoLiberal on April 02, 2019, 07:46:53 PM
deleted


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on April 02, 2019, 07:47:13 PM
Team Raja not at all confident about tonight



Could be trying to expectation-set. Just keep in mind.
wouldn't they do something more public then like releasing a bad internal?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on April 02, 2019, 07:47:20 PM
<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>
Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 07:47:34 PM
Team Raja not at all confident about tonight



Could be trying to expectation-set. Just keep in mind.

Or they’re not confident they’re going to win.

Well, yes - if they were confident they wouldn't need to set expectations. This way they can try to frame a mid single-digit loss as an "overperformance" - doesn't necessarily mean double digit landslide is coming. (Of course it could also be their honest expectation, but no way to be sure).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 07:48:51 PM
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     57.3%   5,400
D Raja (Republican)     42.7%   4,022
41 of 224 (18%) Precincts Reporting, 9,422 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on April 02, 2019, 07:49:53 PM
<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>
Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.
To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on April 02, 2019, 07:50:53 PM
<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>
Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.
To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.
He was referring to the special election.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 07:51:38 PM
Hmmmm.....

Quote from: Wikipedia article: D. Raja
Doraisamy Raja is a politician and the member of Rajya Sabha from Tamil Nadu. He is from the Communist Party of India(CPI) and he is the National Secretary of the Party since 1994.[1][2][3] [4]


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 07:52:25 PM
66/214

Iovino: 54.99% 8,335
Raja: 44.81% 6,791


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on April 02, 2019, 07:52:34 PM
<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>
Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.
To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.
He was referring to the special election.
How do you know this? He never specified.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 07:53:23 PM
<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>
Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.
To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.
He was referring to the special election.
How do you know this? He never specified.

Why are we spending this much time analyzing a Limo post?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 07:53:53 PM
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     55.1%   8,335
D Raja (Republican)     44.9%   6,791
66 of 224 (29%) Precincts Reporting, 15,126 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: LimoLiberal on April 02, 2019, 07:54:04 PM
<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>
Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.
To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.
He was referring to the special election.
How do you know this? He never specified.

1) Lamb had TWO 2018 "performances", the special in March and the November general, so you're confusing everybody here.
2) I'm referring to his performance in the special because that district contained a wider portion of Southern Allegheny county (thus more precincts to compare to SD-37)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 07:55:24 PM

Yeah, but Iovino doesn't need to match Lamb's special performance here lol.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 07:56:02 PM

Yeah, but Iovino doesn't need to match Lamb's special performance here lol.

Pretty much every pundit following the race on Twitter is saying Iovino is hitting her benchmarks.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on April 02, 2019, 07:56:03 PM
<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>
Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.
To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.
He was referring to the special election.
How do you know this? He never specified.

Why are we spending this much time analyzing a Limo post?
Honestly? Trying to pass the time as the results continue to come in :P.

<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>
Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.
To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.
He was referring to the special election.
How do you know this? He never specified.

1) Lamb had TWO 2018 "performances", the special in March and the November general, so you're confusing everybody here.
2) I'm referring to his performance in the special because that district contained a wider portion of Southern Allegheny county (thus more precincts to compare to SD-37)
But as you very well know, this was a disproportionate swing.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 07:57:15 PM
42% in

Iovino: 54.20% 11,342
Raja: 45.63% 9,550


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 07:57:18 PM
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     54.3%   11,342
D Raja (Republican)     45.7%   9,550
90 of 224 (40%) Precincts Reporting, 20,892 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 07:57:28 PM
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     54.3%   11,342
D Raja (Republican)     45.7%   9,550
90 of 224 (40%) Precincts Reporting, 20,892 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: LimoLiberal on April 02, 2019, 07:58:52 PM
I think Iovino would need a more than 2000 vote margin out of Allegheny to feel safe. Washington county in a comparable 2015 special netted 2000 votes for Reschenthaler (R), and he won district-wide by 10.

https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/Special/CountyBreakDownResults?officeId=0&districtId=59&ElectionID=50&ElectionType=S&IsActive=0


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 07:59:48 PM
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     53.9%   14,161
D Raja (Republican)     46.1%   12,131
109 of 224 (49%) Precincts Reporting, 26,292 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 08:00:23 PM
Looking pretty solid right now.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 08:01:09 PM
Yeah, Iovino probably has this.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Horus on April 02, 2019, 08:01:29 PM
Isn't Raja sort of a Brian Fitzpatrick suburban "moderate" type? Could explain why he might improve on Trump's numbers in this sort of district, though this is Allegheny county, a place with... quirky voting patterns to say the least.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: LimoLiberal on April 02, 2019, 08:01:57 PM
Unless something goes horribly wrong, Iovino has this. Not enough votes in Washington county to make up for remaining Dem votes in Mt. Lebanon, Upper St. Clair, and Bethel Park.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 08:02:12 PM
Isn't Raja sort of a Brian Fitzpatrick suburban "moderate" type? Could explain why he might improve on Trump's numbers in this sort of district, though this is Allegheny county, a place with... quirky voting patterns to say the least.

NOOOOOOOOOO! He's more like Saccone. He ran attack ads comparing Iovino to AOC and Bernie.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on April 02, 2019, 08:03:37 PM
Unless something goes horribly wrong, Iovino has this. Not enough votes in Washington county to make up for remaining Dem votes in Mt. Lebanon, Upper St. Clair, and Bethel Park.
Woah. This is the first non-troll post I have seen in a while from limo.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 08:04:19 PM
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     53.5%   17,163
D Raja (Republican)     46.5%   14,909
133 of 224 (59%) Precincts Reporting, 32,072 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on April 02, 2019, 08:04:29 PM
Majority of precincts reporting.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 08:04:59 PM
61% in, Iovino up 7% (2,200).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 08:08:15 PM
71% in

Virtually unchanged.

Iovino: 53.6% 20,095
Raja: 46.2% 17,329

That should be ball game.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Nyvin on April 02, 2019, 08:09:08 PM
71% in

Virtually unchanged.

Iovino: 53.6% 20,095
Raja: 46.2% 17,329

That should be ball game.

It'll probably be called any minute now.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on April 02, 2019, 08:09:37 PM
Still a smidge nervous, but we got this guys!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on April 02, 2019, 08:09:47 PM
Wow, Democrats have been on a tear in the Pittsburgh suburbs lately.

They have a real shot at flipping the Senate chamber next year.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 08:10:56 PM
Wow, Democrats have been on a tear in the Pittsburgh suburbs lately.

They have a real shot at flipping the Senate chamber next year.

Unless the GOP can recover here, PA will probably vote for the Democrat by a comfortable margin in 2020.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Duke of York on April 02, 2019, 08:12:15 PM
Wow, Democrats have been on a tear in the Pittsburgh suburbs lately.

They have a real shot at flipping the Senate chamber next year.

Unless the GOP can recover here, PA will probably vote for the Democrat by a comfortable margin in 2020.

That also depends on who they nominate


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 08:13:16 PM
Wow, Democrats have been on a tear in the Pittsburgh suburbs lately.

They have a real shot at flipping the Senate chamber next year.

Unless the GOP can recover here, PA will probably vote for the Democrat by a comfortable margin in 2020.

That also depends on who they nominate

Yang is probably the only one who could really screw up here.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 08:14:11 PM
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     53.7%   20,095
D Raja (Republican)     46.3%   17,329
152 of 224 (68%) Precincts Reporting, 37,424 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 08:14:39 PM
I think we have this. D+1.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on April 02, 2019, 08:15:11 PM

Heck yeah!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 08:17:19 PM
andidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     53.5%   22,082
D Raja (Republican)     46.5%   19,168
164 of 224 (73%) Precincts Reporting, 41,250 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 08:18:48 PM
A lot of people keep talking about the one township in Washington county that could really help Raja, but that only accounts for 8% of the votes in the entire district so IDK what's keeping them from calling it.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on April 02, 2019, 08:19:11 PM
Apparently Peters Township hasn't reported anything yet. Very conservative suburb in Washington County. I'd expect the margin to narrow some more when those results start coming in, but I'm not sure there's enough there to clinch it for Raja.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 08:20:22 PM
Apparently Peters Township hasn't reported anything yet. Very conservative suburb in Washington County. I'd expect the margin to narrow some more when those results start coming in, but I'm not sure there's enough there to clinch it for Raja.

Someone on Twitter said that Pam's Allegheny margin has to be below 1.5K for Washington to be able to clinch it for Raja, but her margin is at 3K.

EDIT: Now at 3.2K


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Nyvin on April 02, 2019, 08:21:13 PM
Washington county will narrow the race slightly, but 12 precincts aren't going to turn a 7 point margin.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on April 02, 2019, 08:21:38 PM
Washington county will narrow the race slightly, but 12 precincts aren't going to turn a 7 point margin.

My thoughts as well.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 08:22:43 PM
Pennsylvania State Senate General Election 37
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     53.6%   23,503
D Raja (Republican)     46.4%   20,376
172 of 224 (77%) Precincts Reporting, 43,879 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 08:30:16 PM
Iovino lead up to 3.9K


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 08:30:28 PM
Pennsylvania State Senate General Election 37
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     53.8%   27,484
D Raja (Republican)     46.2%   23,624
198 of 224 (88%) Precincts Reporting, 51,108 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 08:32:23 PM
Turnout could be at 30% which is pretty spectacular for a special election.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: lfromnj on April 02, 2019, 08:33:37 PM
Turnout could be at 30% which is pretty spectacular for a special election.

I mean its a rich suburban district. Its of course great for a SE but its not that out of line for this district. It looks Iovino will win but I wonder what the differences will be between the 2012 win and the the 2018 win.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 08:36:54 PM
WULFRIC PROJECTION:

Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     53.9%   28,663
D Raja (Republican)     46.1%   24,536
205 of 224 (92%) Precincts Reporting, 53,199 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 08:36:54 PM
Raja has conceded.

D+1


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Nyvin on April 02, 2019, 08:37:56 PM
Woohoo!  Nice victory for PA Dems!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 08:54:14 PM
Since apparently the last one was locked (and is basically at capacity)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 08:55:01 PM
Anyway DDHQ has finally called the race for Iovino.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 08:56:33 PM
We are still waiting for results in MS HD 101


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 08:59:33 PM
Lol @whoever merged this, you do realize I’ll have to make another one 15 posts from now?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 08:59:33 PM
Iovino's lead (if holds at current) would mean a 13-point shift from Trump in the district and would solidify the D-trend of the PGH suburbs.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Kevinstat on April 02, 2019, 09:03:03 PM
Maine House Distrct 52 (City of Bath) Special Election Results:

Sean C. Paulhus (D-Bath) 968 (66.48%)
Kenneth D. Sener (R-Bath) 488 (33.52%)

I got those numbers from a post by the losing candidate's campaign Facebook account on that campaign's Facebook page.  Apparently there are 7,029 registered voters in Bath which puts turnout (by that measure) at 20.71%.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 09:05:41 PM
Maine House Distrct 52 (City of Bath) Special Election Results:

Sean C. Paulhus (D-Bath) 968 (66.48%)
Kenneth D. Sener (R-Bath) 488 (33.52%)

I got those numbers from a post by the losing candidate's campaign Facebook account on that campaign's Facebook page.  Apparently there are 7,029 registered voters in Bath which puts turnout (by that measure) at 20.71%.

How does that compare to the district’s past voting?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Kevinstat on April 02, 2019, 09:13:36 PM
Maine House Distrct 52 (City of Bath) Special Election Results:

Sean C. Paulhus (D-Bath) 968 (66.48%)
Kenneth D. Sener (R-Bath) 488 (33.52%)

I got those numbers from a post by the losing candidate's campaign Facebook account on that campaign's Facebook page.  Apparently there are 7,029 registered voters in Bath which puts turnout (by that measure) at 20.71%.

How does that compare to the district’s past voting?

First of all, I see that the result (in terms of who won and it being a Dem hold had already been announced on this thread, but I guess I was the first to post numbers.  I've heard that Jennifer DeChant (the Democrat who vacated the seat) got over 70% in 2018.  The seat's been held by Democrats since 2002.  It was a Republican seat for a think quite a while before that (held by one Republican who served from the late 70s to 1994 and then another who served from '94 to 2002.  Both moved on to the Senate, and the second one became a Democrat like a month after beeing reeelected in 2004.  He was unseated in 2006 but another Democrat won the seat two years later.  That Senate seat had long been Republican like the House seat.

I haven't looked recently at the results for the House seat (which was missing some of Bath before the 2013 redistricting) from 2002 on, but I think it's safe to say it's a very Democatic district nowadays.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 09:19:11 PM


That wraps up tonight


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on April 02, 2019, 09:19:16 PM
Lol Peters Township didn't even dent the margin.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Brittain33 on April 02, 2019, 09:20:15 PM
Lol @whoever merged this, you do realize I’ll have to make another one 15 posts from now?

I saw that you said the previous thread was locked, so I assumed I did that by mistake, unlocked, and merged.

I don’t see why we can’t let this thread run out the night and start a new one with the next race.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 09:21:06 PM


That wraps up tonight

What, did all the vote dump at once?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 09:24:00 PM
Lol Peters Township didn't even dent the margin.

I just have to laugh at all the "pundits" on twitter who refused to call the race for Pam, even when she was 3.9K votes ahead, because they thought the one township from Washington could actually make up the difference ::)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 09:27:39 PM
Lol Peters Township didn't even dent the margin.

I just have to laugh at all the "pundits" on twitter who refused to call the race for Pam, even when she was 3.9K votes ahead, because they thought the one township from Washington could actually make up the difference ::)

Wait they were waiting on literally one township? Lmao.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 09:31:53 PM
Lol Peters Township didn't even dent the margin.

I just have to laugh at all the "pundits" on twitter who refused to call the race for Pam, even when she was 3.9K votes ahead, because they thought the one township from Washington could actually make up the difference ::)

Wait they were waiting on literally one township? Lmao.

Yeah... I mean, they were being careful, but Raja had to win like 98% of the vote in that township to beat Iovino by a vote...


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Kevinstat on April 02, 2019, 09:34:16 PM
Maine House Distrct 52 (City of Bath) Special Election Results:

Sean C. Paulhus (D-Bath) 968 (66.48%)
Kenneth D. Sener (R-Bath) 488 (33.52%)

I got those numbers from a post by the losing candidate's campaign Facebook account on that campaign's Facebook page.  Apparently there are 7,029 registered voters in Bath which puts turnout (by that measure) at 20.71%.

How does that compare to the district’s past voting?

Okay, here are the results from 2014 on (since the district grew to become all of Bath):

2014: DeChant (D-inc) 2,435 (65.95%), Daniels (R) 1,257 (34.05%)
2016: DeChant (D-inc) 3,021 (64.45%), Weidner (R) 1,666 (35.55%)
2018: DeChant (D-inc) 2,959 (71.61%), Weidner (R) (same guy) 1,173 (28.39%)
2019 (unofficial): Paulhus (D) 968 (66.48%), Sener (R) 488 (33.52%)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 09:34:48 PM
Lol @whoever merged this, you do realize I’ll have to make another one 15 posts from now?

I saw that you said the previous thread was locked, so I assumed I did that by mistake, unlocked, and merged.

I don’t see why we can’t let this thread run out the night and start a new one with the next race.

Well, tonight’s results are done now. I’m going to go ahead and start the new thread; feel free to continue discussions on today’s races here.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Brittain33 on April 02, 2019, 09:39:30 PM
Lol @whoever merged this, you do realize I’ll have to make another one 15 posts from now?

I saw that you said the previous thread was locked, so I assumed I did that by mistake, unlocked, and merged.

I don’t see why we can’t let this thread run out the night and start a new one with the next race.

Well, tonight’s results are done now. I’m going to go ahead and start the new thread; feel free to continue discussions on today’s races here.

Sounds good, I’ll do the stickying later this week.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Kevinstat on April 02, 2019, 09:41:22 PM
Maine House Distrct 52 (City of Bath) Special Election Results:

Sean C. Paulhus (D-Bath) 968 (66.48%)
Kenneth D. Sener (R-Bath) 488 (33.52%)

I got those numbers from a post by the losing candidate's campaign Facebook account on that campaign's Facebook page.  Apparently there are 7,029 registered voters in Bath which puts turnout (by that measure) at 20.71%.

How does that compare to the district’s past voting?

Okay, here are the results from 2014 on (since the district grew to become all of Bath):

2014: DeChant (D-inc) 2,435 (65.95%), Daniels (R) 1,257 (34.05%)
2016: DeChant (D-inc) 3,021 (64.45%), Weidner (R) 1,666 (35.55%)
2018: DeChant (D-inc) 2,959 (71.61%), Weidner (R) (same guy) 1,173 (28.39%)
2019 (unofficial): Paulhus (D) 968 (66.48%), Sener (R) 488 (33.52%)

Okay, I guess there was some category of votes (there had to have been more than 10 absentee votes) amounting to 10 votes not counted.  The results are now:

Sean C. Paulhus (D-Bath) 975 (66.51%)
Kenneth D. Sener (R-Bath) 491 (33.49%)


Title: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 09:44:44 PM
So, tonight was all around pretty good for Dems in this department (result in WISC, whatever it may be, notwithstanding).

Next week is much more boring - 3 primaries in Florida and an R vs R race in Georgia.

Luckily we’ll probably have Israeli election results to discuss that day.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sestak on April 02, 2019, 09:45:34 PM
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=317244.0


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 02, 2019, 09:53:04 PM
The Democrats just flipped the Green Bay Mayorship... or is that being discussed in another thread?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: 💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his) on April 02, 2019, 10:56:37 PM
I'm assuming PA 37 stuff goes in here?



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on April 03, 2019, 05:41:01 AM
PA 37 is good news, though was hoping Iovino's margin would be higher than +4%. But probably too much to expect it to be close to Wolf (+16%) or Casey (+12%), but hey it's still way above Trump's margin, so that's good. While other states have faltered in special elections for Ds this year, PA has been a bright spot. Still resisting Trump.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 03, 2019, 02:54:34 PM
Schedule:

4/9: Florida HD 7 R primary, HD 38 R Primary, Georgia HD 28 (R v R)
4/16: Connecticut HD 19
4/23: South Carolina HD 14, Tennessee SD 22
4/30: Wisconsin AD 64
5/7: Connecticut HD 130
5/21: Pennsylvania SD 33, SD 41, HD 11


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Badger on April 03, 2019, 09:35:59 PM
If Democrats win this Pennsylvania Election, and also the Wisconsin Election (they need to just win the Pennsylvania Election though they need a substantial margin in the Wisconsin Election), it will be time to call the whole 2020 Presidential Race for the Democratic nominee.

Quoting for future use, given how wrong your 2016 and 2018 predictions were.

People in glass houses.....


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Badger on April 03, 2019, 09:38:10 PM
I'm not sure if I like the early numbers so far... Iovino doing better than Clinton, but much worse than Lamb in some Allegheny precincts.

I'm looking at this map for reference: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html

(Points and laughs at the Republican hack pretending to be a Democrat...poorly)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Fubart Solman on April 07, 2019, 12:29:35 PM
Final results from CA’s 1st Senate District {Primary: March 26th}: (https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/upcoming-elections/2019-sd1/final-official-election-results-senate-district-1/)

Brian Dahle (R) 57,725
Kevin Kiley (R) 54,290

Silke Pflueger (D) 49,164
Rex Hime (R) 18,050
Steve Baird (D) 10,855
Theodore Dzuiba (R) 4,672

The two assemblymen (Dahle and Kiley) will face off on June 4th.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on April 08, 2019, 10:51:24 AM
Final results from CA’s 1st Senate District {Primary: March 26th}: (https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/upcoming-elections/2019-sd1/final-official-election-results-senate-district-1/)

Brian Dahle (R) 57,725
Kevin Kiley (R) 54,290

Silke Pflueger (D) 49,164
Rex Hime (R) 18,050
Steve Baird (D) 10,855
Theodore Dzuiba (R) 4,672

The two assemblymen (Dahle and Kiley) will face off on June 4th.

As i said earlier - Lean Killey if Democrats are smart and will choose "slightly better" Republican candidate in run-off, Lean Dahle if they are dumb and will stay home "en masse"...


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Fubart Solman on April 08, 2019, 11:47:36 AM
Final results from CA’s 1st Senate District {Primary: March 26th}: (https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/upcoming-elections/2019-sd1/final-official-election-results-senate-district-1/)

Brian Dahle (R) 57,725
Kevin Kiley (R) 54,290

Silke Pflueger (D) 49,164
Rex Hime (R) 18,050
Steve Baird (D) 10,855
Theodore Dzuiba (R) 4,672

The two assemblymen (Dahle and Kiley) will face off on June 4th.

As i said earlier - Lean Killey if Democrats are smart and will choose "slightly better" Republican candidate in run-off, Lean Dahle if they are dumb and will stay home "en masse"...

Yeah, my parents and I (2 Dems and a RINO who’s about to go No Party Pref) are going to vote for Kiley. I’d rather have our assemblyman than someone else’s as my senator. Plus I’ll get another special election.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: lfromnj on April 08, 2019, 12:21:54 PM
The special for NJ SD-01 isn’t til November but appointed Democratic incumbent Bob Andrzejczak is fighting to hold a Trump +9 seat that also went for Kim Guadagno and Bob Hugin, the latter by a landslide. I think he should be able to overcome that given his own impressive electoral performance when he was one of the district’s assemblymen. He’s a Bronze Star disables veteran so that probably has helped him significantly over perform the district’s lean in the past. He’s most likely being groomed by the Norcross machine to run for NJ-02 at some point after Van Drew retires or is defeated.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/gop-maintains-registration-edge-in-ld-1/amp/

Its a slightly republican district but for some reason D's have recently held this district at the state level for the past decade. It is Obama trump. Funfact about NJ. The state senate leader for both majority and minority along with the minority state house leaders represent obama Trump district for majority senate leader and Romney Clinton for the minority leaders.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 09, 2019, 02:58:37 PM
Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/95134/Web02-state.226435/#/


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on April 09, 2019, 03:01:43 PM
Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 09, 2019, 06:01:11 PM
Polls are closed


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on April 09, 2019, 06:27:12 PM
Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ON Progressive on April 09, 2019, 06:29:33 PM
Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on April 09, 2019, 06:32:49 PM
Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.

Why was Erwin not seated after winning by 67 votes?

Also, why was the 2 vote win nullified?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ON Progressive on April 09, 2019, 06:34:16 PM
Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.

Why was Erwin not seated after winning by 67 votes?

The 67 vote win was nullified because there were a lot of voters who were given an HD-28 ballot even though they didn't live in the seat.

The 2 vote win was nullified because 4 voters were found to have been ineligible by a court.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on April 09, 2019, 06:48:03 PM
Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.

Why was Erwin not seated after winning by 67 votes?

The 67 vote win was nullified because there were a lot of voters who were given an HD-28 ballot even though they didn't live in the seat.

The 2 vote win was nullified because 4 voters were found to have been ineligible by a court.

Did those 4 voters split exactly 3-1 for Erwin?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ON Progressive on April 09, 2019, 06:54:47 PM
Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.

Why was Erwin not seated after winning by 67 votes?

The 67 vote win was nullified because there were a lot of voters who were given an HD-28 ballot even though they didn't live in the seat.

The 2 vote win was nullified because 4 voters were found to have been ineligible by a court.

Did those 4 voters split exactly 3-1 for Erwin?

There's zero way to know that because of secret ballot, but it's not unreasonable to believe the outcome could have changed off those ineligible voters so they nullified it.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 09, 2019, 06:54:53 PM
Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.

Why was Erwin not seated after winning by 67 votes?

The 67 vote win was nullified because there were a lot of voters who were given an HD-28 ballot even though they didn't live in the seat.

The 2 vote win was nullified because 4 voters were found to have been ineligible by a court.

Did those 4 voters split exactly 3-1 for Erwin?

No way of knowing. The state only has a record that they voted, and did so illegally. The identity of who cast which ballot is secret.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MaxQue on April 09, 2019, 06:55:49 PM
Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.

Why was Erwin not seated after winning by 67 votes?

The 67 vote win was nullified because there were a lot of voters who were given an HD-28 ballot even though they didn't live in the seat.

The 2 vote win was nullified because 4 voters were found to have been ineligible by a court.

Did those 4 voters split exactly 3-1 for Erwin?

It is not known how these voted, so the election has been cancelled because the winner was uncertain.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 09, 2019, 06:56:27 PM
First Precinct:

CHRIS ERWIN (REP)82.59%1,774
REP REP   DAN GASAWAY (I) (REP)17.41%374
2,148




Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 09, 2019, 07:02:47 PM
3/17 in:

CHRIS ERWIN (REP)81.82%1,917
REP REP   DAN GASAWAY (I) (REP)18.18%426
2,343


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 09, 2019, 07:04:32 PM
Florida so far:

Republican
Contest Results by County
Compare State to County
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Lynda Bell   
REP   1,603   
19.4%
Virginia Fuller   
REP   367   
4.44%
Jason Shoaf   
REP   4,043   
48.93%
Mike Watkins   
REP   2,249   
27.22%
Total    8,262

   
State Representative, District 38
Republican
Contest Results by County
Compare State to County
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Randy Maggard   
REP   4,461   
61.77%
David "Mac" McCallister   
REP   2,761   
38.23%
Total    7,222   


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 09, 2019, 07:20:33 PM
15/17 in:

CHRIS ERWIN (REP)77.31%4,106
REP REP   DAN GASAWAY (I) (REP)22.69%1,205
5,311


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 09, 2019, 07:21:38 PM
Florida so far:

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Lynda Bell   
REP   1,812   
19.61%
Virginia Fuller   
REP   406   
4.39%
Jason Shoaf   
REP   4,553   
49.28%
Mike Watkins   
REP   2,468   
26.71%
Total    9,239   

State Representative, District 38
Republican
Contest Results by County
Compare State to County
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Randy Maggard   
REP   4,520   
61.88%
David "Mac" McCallister   
REP   2,784   
38.12%
Total    7,304   


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 09, 2019, 07:46:21 PM
Final:

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Lynda Bell   
REP   1,876   
19.53%
Virginia Fuller   
REP   408   
4.25%
Jason Shoaf   
REP   4,705   
48.97%

Mike Watkins   
REP   2,618   
27.25%
Total    9,607   

State Representative, District 38
Republican
Contest Results by County
Compare State to County
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Randy Maggard   
REP   4,520   
61.88%

David "Mac" McCallister   
REP   2,784   
38.12%
Total    7,304   


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 09, 2019, 08:25:36 PM
Final:

CHRIS ERWIN (REP)75.48%4,586
REP REP   DAN GASAWAY (I) (REP)24.52%1,490
6,076

Next week we'll have a special for CT HD 19.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on April 10, 2019, 04:02:15 AM
Well, Florida's HD-7 is one more of "atypical dystricts". It's frequently called "the last Dixie district in Florida" (and one of the last - in the whole nation: very rural, mostly white, Democratic (but conservative) on very local level (especially in such counties as Liberty, where all local offices are held by Democrats, IIRC...), but - very Republican higher up (less, then 30% HRC in 2016), and so on). The last Democrats elected from district predecessor (Robert Trammell until 1994, and Jamie Westbrook (who ran later as Democrat, Republican and Indie) in 1996) were at least moderate conservatives (in real, not modern, sense of these words)..... Liberals or even moderates have no chances in this district now, and Democrats have no "real conservatives" in legislature since at least 1998-2000, so - it will surely stay Republican in general election...


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Politician on April 16, 2019, 07:40:13 PM
Democrats HOLD CT House District 19: https://ctmirror.org/2019/04/16/democrats-tammy-exum-wins-special-house-election/


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 17, 2019, 05:37:44 AM
Democrats HOLD CT House District 19: https://ctmirror.org/2019/04/16/democrats-tammy-exum-wins-special-house-election/

21% turnout!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Kevinstat on April 17, 2019, 05:06:25 PM
Maine State Rep. Dale Denno (D-45) has resigned to seek treatment for cancer. Special likely coming in June. Denno won his second term in November by 30 points and 1,700 votes (a lot in tiny Maine House districts).

Very sad, I hope he gets better soon
Unfortunately, he passed away (https://www.pressherald.com/2019/04/17/former-cumberland-lawmaker-dies-after-resignation-in-march/) yesterday.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Politician on April 23, 2019, 07:02:59 PM
Woah, Democrat leads in deep-red SC-LD-14: http://wlbg.com/2019/04/23/sc-house-district-14-election-results/?62227


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mr.Phips on April 23, 2019, 07:25:52 PM
Woah, Democrat leads in deep-red SC-LD-14: http://wlbg.com/2019/04/23/sc-house-district-14-election-results/?62227

For like a second.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ON Progressive on April 23, 2019, 07:36:49 PM
Ended up being 56-43 GOP in HD-14, which is quite a solid over-performance for a Trump +37 seat.

TN SD-22 ended up being very similar to Presidential margins. Trump won it 58-36, and the Republicans held it 59-39.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ebsy on April 23, 2019, 10:02:10 PM
The Tennessee seat ended up being much closer than initial counts suggested, giving a big swing towards the Democrat:

()

Democrats getting 44% in both of these districts is a very good performance to say the least.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ebsy on April 23, 2019, 10:21:17 PM
There are going to be two special elections for vacant Missouri House seats in November, 99 and 158, both Republican held.

99 is an interesting seat, stretching from one of the wealthiest areas of Missouri/St. Louis County, Manchester and Twin Oaks, down through more middle class Valley Park, which straddles the border with Jefferson County. The incumbent, Jean Evans, only won by 6 points last year and I would bet that Claire McCaskill carried the seat handily, while Trump won it only 49/44 against Romney's 55/43 victory. I imagine that Democrats are going to contest this seat heavily in their search for a way out of the super minority in the House. This seat covers terrain that has been moving towards the Democrats rapidly and is definitely one to watch.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on April 24, 2019, 04:29:51 PM
Ended up being 56-43 GOP in HD-14, which is quite a solid over-performance for a Trump +37 seat.

TN SD-22 ended up being very similar to Presidential margins. Trump won it 58-36, and the Republicans held it 59-39.

#RepublicansInDisarray


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 30, 2019, 12:11:46 PM
Tonight we have an election for WI State Assembly District 64. Polls close at 9 PM.

NC-3 coverage is at: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=307977.0


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Drew on April 30, 2019, 06:56:45 PM
WI AD-64 results:

Kenosha County (vast majority of the district): http://www.co.kenosha.wi.us/1405/Current-Election-Results

Racine County: https://racinecounty.com/government/county-clerk/election-information/election-results

Polls close 8 CDT


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Politician on April 30, 2019, 08:08:01 PM
12/56 in:

Tip McGuire (D): 426
Mark Stalker (R): 301


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Politician on April 30, 2019, 08:10:57 PM
41/56 in:

Tip McGuire (D): 1923
Mark Stalker (R): 1136

Calling this for McGuire.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: DINGO Joe on April 30, 2019, 08:12:41 PM
Stalker is a horrible name


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on April 30, 2019, 08:47:06 PM

https://ballotpedia.org/Russell_C._Fagg (https://ballotpedia.org/Russell_C._Fagg)

WI AD-64 was a 15-point improvement for the Ds from 2016.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr. Arch on April 30, 2019, 11:40:26 PM
Final Results for WI AD-64:

McGuire (D): 4,424 (62%)
Stalker (R): 2,677 (38%)

D+24


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: DINGO Joe on May 01, 2019, 12:08:17 AM

https://ballotpedia.org/Russell_C._Fagg (https://ballotpedia.org/Russell_C._Fagg)

WI AD-64 was a 15-point improvement for the Ds from 2016.

Rather be a cigarette than a stalker.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gass3268 on May 01, 2019, 09:17:13 AM
WI AD-64 is clearly a Dempack but I always like to see over performances from 2012.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: lfromnj on May 05, 2019, 12:10:51 AM
https://www.twincities.com/2019/05/04/mn-republican-representative-matt-grossell-arrested-saturday-in-st-paul-for-trespassing/

Minnesota Representative arrested for trespassing. D's did hold this district until 2014 but its gone. Its +30 Trump and the black Kenyan muslim did better than Klobuchar in 2018 in this district(He only lost it by 2 vs 3 points for Klobuchar.)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on May 05, 2019, 01:45:02 AM
I know you are kidding, but just for any gullible people out there that could be reading this, for the millionth time, Obama is not a muslim.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on May 05, 2019, 05:30:54 PM
I know you are kidding, but just for any gullible people out there that could be reading this, for the millionth time, Obama is not a muslim.

Obama and Hillary both are both more Christian than Trumpolini.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on May 07, 2019, 02:52:04 PM
Tonight: CT HD 130

Polls close at 8 ET


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on May 07, 2019, 03:25:32 PM

It probably won’t even be close. The district contains downtown Bridgeport


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on May 08, 2019, 01:32:34 AM
Democratic Hold:

A special election for District 130 of the Connecticut House of Representatives was held on May 7. Unofficial results showed 23-year-old Antonio Felipe (D) winning with 47.2% of the vote. Felipe will be the youngest member in the state House. The second place finisher, Kate Rivera, earned 34.8% of the vote and was the first petition candidate running for the Connecticut General Assembly to qualify for full public campaign financing.
 


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Fubart Solman on May 09, 2019, 01:06:33 PM
Just got my ballot in the mail for the runoff for California’s First Senate District. The election is on June 4th. Haven’t opened my ballot yet, but I know that it’s between two Republicans. I’m going to vote for Kevin Kiley because he’s my local assemblyman (don’t want a senator from Lassen County) and I want another special election or two. Kiley’s assembly district has a slight chance (read 0.1%) of flipping, while Brian Dahle's (Kiley’s opponent) district won’t flip.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on May 19, 2019, 09:02:48 PM
Schedule:

5/21: PA SD 33 & 41, HD 11
6/4: CA SD 1 & 33; NJ SD 1
6/11: AL HD 11
6/18: FL HD 7, 38, 97


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 21, 2019, 11:00:16 AM
Schedule:

5/21: PA SD 33 & 41, HD 11
6/4: CA SD 1 & 33; NJ SD 1
6/11: AL HD 11
6/18: FL HD 7, 38, 97


I'm fairly confident all the PA stuff today is safe Republican.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 04:03:49 PM
Results Pages:

SD 33 - https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/Special/OfficeResults?ElectionID=73&ElectionType=S&IsActive=1
SD 41 - https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/Special/OfficeResults?ElectionID=74&ElectionType=S&IsActive=1
HD 11 - https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/Special/OfficeResults?ElectionID=76&ElectionType=S&IsActive=1

all polls close at 8 ET


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 08:07:40 PM
9% in:

41st Senatorial District County Breakdown
BOSER, SUSAN
(DEM)
33.73%
    Votes: 533
PITTMAN, JOE
(REP)
66.27%
    Votes: 1,047


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 08:31:50 PM
First numbers out of HD 11

11th Legislative District County Breakdown
DOCTOR, SAMUEL JOSEPH
(DEM)
43.85%
    Votes: 1,445
MUSTELLO, MARCI
(REP)
56.15%
    Votes: 1,850


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 08:36:34 PM
1% in:

33rd Senatorial District County Breakdown
HAMMOND, SARAH E
(DEM)
26.32%
    Votes: 533
MASTRIANO, DOUG
(REP)
73.68%
    Votes: 1,492


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 08:41:58 PM
WULFRIC PROJECTION:

33% in
41st Senatorial District County Breakdown
BOSER, SUSAN
(DEM)
28.37%
    Votes: 2,773
PITTMAN, JOE
(REP)
71.63%
    Votes: 7,001


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 10:54:02 PM
33rd Senatorial District County Breakdown
HAMMOND, SARAH E
(DEM)
30.47%
    Votes: 3,445
MASTRIANO, DOUG
(REP)
69.53%
    Votes: 7,863


BOSER, SUSAN
(DEM)
34.4%
    Votes: 12,708
PITTMAN, JOE
(REP)
65.6%
    Votes: 24,236


11th Legislative District County Breakdown
DOCTOR, SAMUEL JOSEPH
(DEM)
42.61%
    Votes: 4,312
MUSTELLO, MARCI
(REP)
57.39%
    Votes: 5,808


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: lfromnj on May 22, 2019, 12:52:10 AM
The 11th district loss was very impressive for democrats. Heard the Democrats ran some iron worker.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on May 22, 2019, 01:36:37 AM
The 11th district loss was very impressive for democrats. Heard the Democrats ran some iron worker.

Agree. The only "bright spot" for Democrats in yesterday's elections..


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on May 22, 2019, 02:00:12 PM
The 11th district loss was very impressive for democrats. Heard the Democrats ran some iron worker.

Agree. The only "bright spot" for Democrats in yesterday's elections..

Tbf, these are wealthier suburbs and exurbs getting bluer.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: DINGO Joe on May 22, 2019, 10:31:52 PM
33rd Senatorial District County Breakdown
HAMMOND, SARAH E
(DEM)
30.47%
    Votes: 3,445
MASTRIANO, DOUG
(REP)
69.53%
    Votes: 7,863


BOSER, SUSAN
(DEM)
34.4%
    Votes: 12,708
PITTMAN, JOE
(REP)
65.6%
    Votes: 24,236


11th Legislative District County Breakdown
DOCTOR, SAMUEL JOSEPH
(DEM)
42.61%
    Votes: 4,312
MUSTELLO, MARCI
(REP)
57.39%
    Votes: 5,808


That turnout in SD 33 seems wildly different from the other two.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Brittain33 on May 24, 2019, 10:14:17 AM
That turnout in SD 33 seems wildly different from the other two.

It does. Were the Allegheny local and county primary elections a big draw?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Seattle on May 24, 2019, 04:24:34 PM
LD-1 State Senator Guy Palumbo (D) has resigned effective 5/24 to take a job at Amazon.
This will trigger a November special, I believe. Should be Safe D.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on May 25, 2019, 12:59:04 AM
LD-1 State Senator Guy Palumbo (D) has resigned effective 5/24 to take a job at Amazon.
This will trigger a November special, I believe. Should be Safe D.

Amazon, probably, pays more....


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on May 25, 2019, 12:15:29 PM
That turnout in SD 33 seems wildly different from the other two.

It does. Were the Allegheny local and county primary elections a big draw?

There were competitive DA and council primaries that fueled turnout.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Fubart Solman on May 28, 2019, 08:59:52 PM
Went up to Shingle Springs looking at cars yesterday. There were a fair number of Kiley and Dahle signs dotting the highway. A lot more Kiley signs in Folsom though. I got three mailers from Dahle and groups campaigning for him. I’m voting Kiley since it’s more likely he could be raplced by a Dem than Dahle could. Still have to fill out my ballot though.

One week to go until the election in CA Sen-1.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Fubart Solman on June 04, 2019, 11:32:57 AM
Went up to Shingle Springs looking at cars yesterday. There were a fair number of Kiley and Dahle signs dotting the highway. A lot more Kiley signs in Folsom though. I got three mailers from Dahle and groups campaigning for him. I’m voting Kiley since it’s more likely he could be raplced by a Dem than Dahle could. Still have to fill out my ballot though.

One week to go until the election in CA Sen-1.

CA Senate Districts 1 and 33 have their special elections today.

There will be a special assembly election no matter the result of SD 1. Either the northern rural counties (Assembly District 1 - Brian Dahle) or Sacramento suburbs (Assembly District 6 - Kevin Kiley) will have a special election in the coming months. Both Dahle and Kiley are Republicans; Ted Gaines (whose resignation triggered this election) is a Republican as well.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on June 04, 2019, 12:26:21 PM
Went up to Shingle Springs looking at cars yesterday. There were a fair number of Kiley and Dahle signs dotting the highway. A lot more Kiley signs in Folsom though. I got three mailers from Dahle and groups campaigning for him. I’m voting Kiley since it’s more likely he could be raplced by a Dem than Dahle could. Still have to fill out my ballot though.

One week to go until the election in CA Sen-1.

CA Senate Districts 1 and 33 have their special elections today.

There will be a special assembly election no matter the result of SD 1. Either the northern rural counties (Assembly District 1 - Brian Dahle) or Sacramento suburbs (Assembly District 6 - Kevin Kiley) will have a special election in the coming months. Both Dahle and Kiley are Republicans; Ted Gaines (whose resignation triggered this election) is a Republican as well.

Given the district - not surprising. Rooting for Kiley. But - one question: until not so long ago this territory used to elect Democrats not infrequently. What happened? Were these Democrats rather conservative or what?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ebsy on June 04, 2019, 02:46:42 PM
The MO HD 99 is heating up for November. Both the Dems and GOP have recruited serious candidates and I got a call from the Dem group today asking me to canvass. Presumably the Republicans are mobilizing as well. Both candidates appear to be upper middle class professional wine moms which is pretty hilarious.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Fubart Solman on June 04, 2019, 03:18:42 PM
Went up to Shingle Springs looking at cars yesterday. There were a fair number of Kiley and Dahle signs dotting the highway. A lot more Kiley signs in Folsom though. I got three mailers from Dahle and groups campaigning for him. I’m voting Kiley since it’s more likely he could be raplced by a Dem than Dahle could. Still have to fill out my ballot though.

One week to go until the election in CA Sen-1.

CA Senate Districts 1 and 33 have their special elections today.

There will be a special assembly election no matter the result of SD 1. Either the northern rural counties (Assembly District 1 - Brian Dahle) or Sacramento suburbs (Assembly District 6 - Kevin Kiley) will have a special election in the coming months. Both Dahle and Kiley are Republicans; Ted Gaines (whose resignation triggered this election) is a Republican as well.

Given the district - not surprising. Rooting for Kiley. But - one question: until not so long ago this territory used to elect Democrats not infrequently. What happened? Were these Democrats rather conservative or what?

I’m not an expert, but I think that there was a lot of logging going on in places like Lassen and Plumas Counties. They were some of the best counties for the CA Dems back maybe 40-50 years ago like you mentioned.

Polls in California close at 8 PM local time, 11 PM Eastern. (6 hours and 40 or so minutes)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 04, 2019, 07:05:04 PM
District 1: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/special/state-senate/district/1
District 33: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/special/state-senate/district/33

There's also a race for NJ Senate District 1, not seeing a results page for that though.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mr. Matt on June 04, 2019, 07:15:24 PM
The NJ Senate race is only the primary (both D & R unopposed). Special elections outside of November haven't been done for legislative races since the late 1980s, the party appointee serves until/continue to serve that election.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on June 04, 2019, 07:36:45 PM
The NJ Senate race is only the primary (both D & R unopposed). Special elections outside of November haven't been done for legislative races since the late 1980s, the party appointee serves until/continue to serve that election.

What a waste then. Unopposed special state legislative election primaries are fully pointless to run and almost invariably going to result in extremely low turnout.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Fubart Solman on June 04, 2019, 10:17:50 PM
Placer came in big for Kiley. I'm guessing these were absentees that were mailed in early.

17,576 61.4% Kiley
11,028 38.6% Dahle


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Fubart Solman on June 04, 2019, 10:20:21 PM
Sacramento came in big for Kiley as well.

11,918 71.4% Kiley
4,766 28.6% Dahle

Modoc in big for Dahle

1,317 84.5% Dahle
204 13.1% Kiley

Totals:
29,698 63.4% Kiley
17,111 36.6% Dahle

Edit: El Dorado decently for Kiley, maybe not as much as I would've guessed.

14,720 55.1% Kiley
11,975 44.9% Dahle

Total

45,566 60.2% Kiley
30,151 39.8% Dahle

Again, results are still early. If it's a close race by the end of the night, we might not know for a week or so. Ballots have until Friday to arrive at their respective county offices if they were postmarked by today.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Fubart Solman on June 04, 2019, 10:24:21 PM
Plumas went big for Dahle as could be expected.

1,435 68.7% Dahle
655 31.3% Kiley


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Fubart Solman on June 04, 2019, 10:30:53 PM
Nevada big for Dahle

10,040 67.1% Dahle
4,924 32.9% Kiley

Total

68,099 57.4% Kiley
50,575 42.6% Dahle

Siskyou also big for Dahle

3,942 68.4% Dahle
1,821 31.6% Kiley

Totals
54,080 53.2% Kiley
47,536 46.8% Dahle


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Fubart Solman on June 04, 2019, 10:36:57 PM
Oh Jesus Shasta

14,282 80% Dahle
3,572 20% Kiley


Dahle is now in the lead
Totals:
61,818 51.7% Dahle
57,652 48.3% Kiley

Sierra went for Dahle
533 67% Dahle
263 33% Kiley


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Fubart Solman on June 04, 2019, 10:43:05 PM
SD 33, entirely within LA County (to replace Ricardo Lara)

5.2% Reporting
18,684 69.2% Gonzalez (D)
8,304 30.8% Guerrero (R)

My posts will be back to SD 1


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Fubart Solman on June 04, 2019, 10:45:15 PM
Lassen also went big for Dahle. It's his home county.

2,686 80.9% Dahle
636 19.1% Kiley

Totals:
64,546 52.5% Dahle
58,300 47.5% Kiley
 


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Fubart Solman on June 04, 2019, 11:15:41 PM
Alpine County is up to 80% reporting

126 73.3% Dahle
46 26.7% Kiley

Totals:
64,956 52.6% Dahle
58,435 47.4% Kiley
Supposedly 54.1% reporting. Not sure how much I believe the reporting percentage. In the March primary, there were 194,756 total voters, including 49,000 for the legitimate Dem. Right now we're at about 123,500 give or take.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Fubart Solman on June 04, 2019, 11:28:54 PM
Alpine County is up to 80% reporting

126 73.3% Dahle
46 26.7% Kiley

Totals:
64,956 52.6% Dahle
58,435 47.4% Kiley
Supposedly 54.1% reporting. Not sure how much I believe the reporting percentage. In the March primary, there were 194,756 total voters, including 49,000 for the legitimate Dem. Right now we're at about 123,500 give or take.

It's now up to 60.7% reporting district wide with a negligible vote change.

65,102 52.6% Dahle
58,636 47.4% Kiley


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on June 04, 2019, 11:38:55 PM
Democrats probably decided to be idiots and sit SD-1 election out completely. Well, they are likely to have a right-wing nutjob Dahle representing them..


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Fubart Solman on June 05, 2019, 12:07:01 AM
Probably my last update for the night:

65,956 52.8% Dahle
58,902 47.2% Kiley
66% reporting

It's definitely looking like Dems sat this one out, which is disappointing. Not sure if they would've swung it for Kiley, but jeez people, at least vote for the best of the Republicans (whoever you think that may be) or the one who's more likely to be replaced by a Dem (0.5% chance vs 0% chance).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on June 05, 2019, 12:11:54 AM
Probably my last update for the night:

65,956 52.8% Dahle
58,902 47.2% Kiley
66% reporting

It's definitely looking like Dems sat this one out, which is disappointing. Not sure if they would've swung it for Kiley, but jeez people, at least vote for the best of the Republicans (whoever you think that may be) or the one who's more likely to be replaced by a Dem (0.5% chance vs 0% chance).

One more confirmation of the fact, that continuing ideologisation and polarisation of American politics makes it more and more idiotic with every passig year.... Reasonably sure, that 2020 will be even worse...


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on June 05, 2019, 01:15:18 AM
BTW, situation in SD-33 is somewhat interesting too. Of course it was (and is) a reliable Democratic district, where HRC got almost 84% of votes. But Gonzalez undrperformed (and Guerrero - overperformed) rather significantly - it's about 69-31 now. I understand quite well, that this is a very low turnout special, but still - remarkable.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on June 05, 2019, 07:25:36 AM
BTW, situation in SD-33 is somewhat interesting too. Of course it was (and is) a reliable Democratic district, where HRC got almost 84% of votes. But Gonzalez undrperformed (and Guerrero - overperformed) rather significantly - it's about 69-31 now. I understand quite well, that this is a very low turnout special, but still - remarkable.

Rule 3 of Specials: Hispanic vote drops off precariously during any non-november election. We have seen this already this years in Texas specials, saw it before 2018 in California specials, saw it in the Texas primary...its only Nevada that sometimes bucks the trend if the national parties are pouring in cash for a certain election.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 05, 2019, 10:58:14 AM
Final:

Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
70,556   
53.1%

Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
62,259   
46.9%

Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
26,343   
69.0%

Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
11,835   
31.0%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Fubart Solman on June 05, 2019, 11:00:32 AM
Final:

Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
70,556   
53.1%

Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
62,259   
46.9%

Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
26,343   
69.0%

Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
11,835   
31.0%


I’d like to note that there’s still ballots to be counted in both races, but I think it’s safe to call both.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: DINGO Joe on June 05, 2019, 01:46:55 PM
BTW, situation in SD-33 is somewhat interesting too. Of course it was (and is) a reliable Democratic district, where HRC got almost 84% of votes. But Gonzalez undrperformed (and Guerrero - overperformed) rather significantly - it's about 69-31 now. I understand quite well, that this is a very low turnout special, but still - remarkable.

Like Oryx said, it's not remarkable, it's pretty typical.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on June 05, 2019, 02:40:08 PM
BTW, situation in SD-33 is somewhat interesting too. Of course it was (and is) a reliable Democratic district, where HRC got almost 84% of votes. But Gonzalez undrperformed (and Guerrero - overperformed) rather significantly - it's about 69-31 now. I understand quite well, that this is a very low turnout special, but still - remarkable.

Like Oryx said, it's not remarkable, it's pretty typical.

When party candidate doubles his party Presidential candidate's percentages in his/her race - it's remarkable. At least - for me.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Annatar on June 09, 2019, 03:14:34 AM
I'm not a big believer in the idea special election swings tell us much about what will happen in a general election, especially in a Presidential year but for what its worth, the average swing in the 29 special elections since the midterms where both parties together got at least 90% of the vote has been 6.1% towards the dems compared to Trump-Clinton and 0.8% compared to Obama-Romney, the average in the 2017-2018 cycle was 11.2% vs Clinton's number and 5.9% compared to Obama according to DailyKos. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dXQhlzCAw05fC7P21eCivdfLOB-F3nykPVRPzG49U9g/edit#gid=0

For a more exact comparison, in the first 29 special elections post Nov 8 2016 which went through to August of 2017 the average swing vs Clinton was 12.5% in the dems favour and 9.6% vs Obama. Again I'm not sure this really means anything but it might be a marker of reduced democratic energy.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 11, 2019, 05:29:49 PM
Today we have the special primary for Alabama HD 74. The Republican Primary is hotly contested; the democratic primary consists of one candidate running unopposed. Results will be here: http://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionnight/countyResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1001040&cid=03

Additionally we have the special general for Maine HD 45. Democrats are expected to hold the seat.

Polls close at 8 ET


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Politician on June 11, 2019, 07:32:27 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 11, 2019, 07:40:14 PM
7% in:

Michael Fritz (REP)   
chart
10.42%
5
Tobias Grant (REP)   
chart
2.08%
1
Jesse Caleb Heifner (REP)   
chart
2.08%
1
Jay King (REP)   
chart
4.17%
2
Charlotte Meadows (REP)   
chart
60.42%
29
Daniel Sparkman (REP)   
chart
20.83%
10


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on June 11, 2019, 07:56:58 PM


"All I know is he's won, per the local party. Maine doesn't post SOS results, but ideally I'll find numbers within the next hour" ( https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1138604721185394688 )

Perhaps it was this tweet from House Majority Leader Matt Moonen: https://twitter.com/mattmoonen/status/1138603403712651264 .

I think he did that with at least one of the earlier special elections this year.  I wish people would just wait until the actual numbers came in, but of course if the victory is underwhelming the party would want the victory to be the "breaking news."


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 11, 2019, 08:50:48 PM
Final:

Percent
Votes
Michael Fritz (REP)   
chart
22.30%
618
Tobias Grant (REP)   
chart
6.93%
192
Jesse Caleb Heifner (REP)   
chart
11.58%
321
Jay King (REP)   
chart
4.15%
115
Charlotte Meadows (REP)   
chart
43.96%

1,218
Daniel Sparkman (REP)   
chart
11.08%
307
   
2,771


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on June 11, 2019, 09:01:20 PM
According to the Portland Press Herald, Moriarty (D) carried Cumberland (like 82% of the district based on 2010 census figures) 1,221 votes (61.73%) to 757 (38.27%). They don't have results from the Gray portion of the district (most of Gray is in another district), but while the Gray portion does seem to be a bit more Republican it's clear Moriarty has won, most likely north of 60%.

www.pressherald.com/2019/06/11/local-election-results-for-southern-maine/


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on June 11, 2019, 09:59:17 PM
According to the Portland Press Herald, Moriarty (D) carried Cumberland (like 82% of the district based on 2010 census figures) 1,221 votes (61.73%) to 757 (38.27%). They don't have results from the Gray portion of the district (most of Gray is in another district), but while the Gray portion does seem to be a bit more Republican it's clear Moriarty has won, most likely north of 60%.

www.pressherald.com/2019/06/11/local-election-results-for-southern-maine/

portion of Gray in the district (unofficial, of course everything's unofficial until the losing candidate indicates that he will not request a recount, although that may have already happened): Moriarty (D) 68 (59.13%), Hughes (R) 47 (40.87%).

Overall: Moriarty (D) 1289 (61.59%), Hughes (R) 804 (38.41%).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MaxQue on June 12, 2019, 08:15:34 AM
Final:

Percent
Votes
Michael Fritz (REP)   
chart
22.30%
618
Tobias Grant (REP)   
chart
6.93%
192
Jesse Caleb Heifner (REP)   
chart
11.58%
321
Jay King (REP)   
chart
4.15%
115
Charlotte Meadows (REP)   
chart
43.96%

1,218
Daniel Sparkman (REP)   
chart
11.08%
307
   
2,771

Fritz should be in bold too, this is Alabama, so there is a runoff.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on June 18, 2019, 08:34:41 PM
Republicans hold both FL-07 and FL-38. Result in FL-38:

Randy Maggard REP 9,615 55.58%

Kelly Smith DEM 7,684 44.42%

may be considered rather good for Democrats despite loss, result in HD-07:

Jason Shoaf REP 11,604 71.3%

Ryan Terrell DEM 4,670 28.7%

- surely not, as Democratic candidate managed to underperform even HRC in this rural, ancestrally Democratic, but solidly conservative district. Probably - he simply doesn't fit it....

Excellent paper on HD-07 and it's peculiar politics is here:

https://mcimaps.com/hd7-2019-special-election-the-last-of-floridas-conservative-democratic-districts/

In some cases it's ridiculous: very rural Liberty county, with about 70% Democratic registration and all-Democratic for county offices, went almost 4-1 for Republican candidate (and almost equally divided by registration Lafayette, which is majority-Democratic on county level: 7-1). Democrats continue to crater in rural South. They are lucky, that South became less rural of late.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 18, 2019, 08:46:21 PM
There are no further state leg specials until August.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: skbl17 on July 10, 2019, 12:40:07 PM
Special election for GA-HD-71 to be held on September 3 (https://gov.georgia.gov/sites/gov.georgia.gov/files/related_files/document/07.05.19.01.pdf) due to the resignation of Rep. David Stover. The eastern Coweta-based district is solidly Republican (it was R+[some number greater than 45] in 2018).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ebsy on July 21, 2019, 06:43:02 PM
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/st-louis-state-rep-bruce-franks-says-he-s-leaving/article_0ff62be2-8182-5a64-8cbd-8f48c51239e5.html

Representative Bruce Franks is resigning on the 31, currently represents a House district that covers most of Downtown St. Louis and some neighborhoods north. Heavily black and Democratic. Special election should be in November.

Hopefully the Hubbards don't manage to stage a come back here, one would think two seats on the Board of Aldermen would be enough.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 13, 2019, 05:13:34 PM
August 6th Elections:

WA State Senate 40 (1st Round): Lovelett (D) and Miller (R) advanced
WA State House District 13, Position 2 (1st Round): Yabarra (R) and Verhey (D) advanced

Schedule for the late summer and fall. Primaries and uncontested races are not included.

8/20: Pennsylvania House 85, South Carolina House 19
8/27: California State Assembly District 1 (1st Round)
9/3: Georgia House 71 (1st Round)
10/1: South Carolina House 84, Georgia House 71 (Runoff)
10/8: New Hampshire House 9th Rockingham District

11/5: VOTE-O-RAMA!!!

Alabama: House 42
Arkansas: House 36
California: Assembly 1 (Runoff)
Missouri: House 22, 36, 74, 78, 99, 158
New Jersey: Senate 1
New York: Senate 57
Texas: House 100
Washington: Runoffs for Senate 40 and House 13, Position 2


11/12: Alabama House 74


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ebsy on August 13, 2019, 05:31:21 PM
It's crazy how many members have ditched the Missouri House of Reps. I knew things were bad but it must be a lot worse to serve than I thought.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: libertpaulian on August 13, 2019, 06:20:48 PM
Any pickup opportunities for either party?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Politician on August 13, 2019, 06:29:01 PM
Any pickup opportunities for either party?
Here's how I would rate the races:
PA-HD-85: Safe R
SC-HD-19: Safe R

CA-AD-1: Safe R

GA-HD-71: Safe R

SC-HD-84: Safe R

NH-HD-Rockingham 8: Tossup

AL-HD-42: Safe R
AR-HD-36: Safe D
MO-HD-22/36/74/78: Safe D
MO-HD-99: Tossup
MO-HD-158: Safe R
NJ-SD-1: Lean D
NY-SD-57: Safe R
TX-SD-100: Safe D
WA-SD-40: Safe D
WA-HD-13B: Safe R


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: lfromnj on August 13, 2019, 06:30:37 PM
Any pickup opportunities for either party?


Some Texas GOP rep retired, very unlikely pickup by Democrats.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ebsy on August 17, 2019, 01:02:45 PM
Any pickup opportunities for either party?

MO-HD 99 is drawing a lot of resources from both parties. I would say Democrats are slightly favored to pick it up.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 20, 2019, 07:09:28 PM
Results:

SC: https://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/96549/Web02-state.228807/#/
PA: https://electionreturns.pa.gov/

Nothing in yet


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ON Progressive on August 20, 2019, 07:18:28 PM
Just absentee vote in SC so far:

Carrie Counton (D) 40
Patrick Haddon (R) 36

This does indicate an R blowout in all likelihood given the Democratic lean of absentees (the state Senate special election in this area in March had a massive Dem lead in absentees)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ON Progressive on August 20, 2019, 07:24:10 PM
Everything just dumped in at once:

Patrick Haddon (R) 61%
Carrie Counton (D) 39%

Pretty much what you'd expect, really. Counton winning 2 precincts is actually pretty impressive given that zero of the precincts in this seat voted for Tina Belge in the SD-06 special in March.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lisa's voting Biden on August 20, 2019, 07:41:06 PM
Everything just dumped in at once:

Patrick Haddon (R) 61%
Carrie Counton (D) 39%

Pretty much what you'd expect, really. Counton winning 2 precincts is actually pretty impressive given that zero of the precincts in this seat voted for Tina Belge in the SD-06 special in March.
Less than 10% turnout is depressing.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lisa's voting Biden on August 20, 2019, 08:26:38 PM
45% of PA-85 in:

Rowe - 66.75% (2927 votes)

Rager-Kay - 33.25% (1458 votes)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lisa's voting Biden on August 20, 2019, 08:37:19 PM
65% of PA-85 in

Rowe - 62.7% (4159 votes)

Rager-Kay - 37.3% (2474 votes)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lisa's voting Biden on August 20, 2019, 09:17:56 PM
100% of PA-85 in

Rowe - 62.62% (6489 votes)

Rager-Kay - 35.79% (3874 votes)

FINAL: R +26.83

By County
Snyder
Rowe - 72.92 % (3035 votes)

Rager-Kay - 27.08% (1127 votes)

Union
Rowe - 55.70% (3454 votes)

Rager-Kay - 44.30% (2747 votes)

Previous Results
2018
R +35.4
2014
R +38.4


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 20, 2019, 10:03:34 PM
Certainly a disappointing night.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: soundchaser on August 20, 2019, 10:07:23 PM

Not *that* disappointing — that’s a pretty sizable swing in PA. Bodes well for next year.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on August 20, 2019, 10:38:02 PM

Its not disappointing at all. Both of these were very red districts


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lisa's voting Biden on August 20, 2019, 10:59:01 PM
A 9-point swing to the D candidate after a Dem wave year is not disappointing if you're a democrat. Does not bode well for 2020.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 20, 2019, 11:01:13 PM
A 9-point swing to the D candidate after a Dem wave year is not disappointing if you're a democrat. Does not bode well for 2020.

Anything short of a win is a disappointment.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lisa's voting Biden on August 20, 2019, 11:05:43 PM
A 9-point swing to the D candidate after a Dem wave year is not disappointing if you're a democrat. Does not bode well for 2020.

Anything short of a win is a disappointment.
What did you honestly expect with two safe R districts? I'd save that energy for tossup races.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Annatar on August 21, 2019, 05:42:34 AM
The dems ran 3% ahead of Clinton in District 19 in SC and 8.2% in District 85 in PA, overall medium sized swings. So far we have had 34 special elections with both parties since the midterms and the dems have run 5.6% ahead of Clinton's number in them, in 2018 in the 49 special elections where both parties stood, dems ran 11.2% ahead of Clinton and of the 68 elections in 2017, dems also ran 11.2% ahead of Clinton.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on August 21, 2019, 09:07:13 AM
The fact that the PA special ran ahead of even 2018 bodes very well.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ON Progressive on August 21, 2019, 03:31:18 PM
A 9-point swing to the D candidate after a Dem wave year is not disappointing if you're a democrat. Does not bode well for 2020.

Anything short of a win is a disappointment.
What did you honestly expect with two safe R districts? I'd save that energy for tossup races.

Especially since the PA district has two counties that have literally never voted D since the Civil War.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 27, 2019, 07:59:20 PM
Follow Results for the CA Special tonight here: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/special/state-assembly/district/1

If no one gets 50%, the top two go to a runoff.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr. Arch on August 27, 2019, 10:21:44 PM
Follow Results for the CA Special tonight here: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/special/state-assembly/district/1

If no one gets 50%, the top two go to a runoff.

First results coming in (5.3% reporting):

Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
   6,707   
42.5%

   Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
   5,767   
36.5%

   Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
   2,010   
12.7%

   Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
   525   
3.3%

   Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
   786   
5.0%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 27, 2019, 10:24:29 PM
9% in:

Candidate   Votes
Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
11,942   
33.9%
Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
12,443   
35.4%
Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
8,253   
23.5%
Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
945   
2.7%
Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
1,594   
4.5%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 27, 2019, 10:32:29 PM
13% in:

   Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
12,835   
34.2%
Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
13,595   
36.3%
Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
8,386   
22.4%
Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
962   
2.6%
Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
1,708   
4.6%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr. Arch on August 27, 2019, 10:40:35 PM
24.5% in:

Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
   24,132   
40.9%
   Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
   20,976   
35.5%
   Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
   9,817   
16.6%
   Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
   1,223   
2.1%
   Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
   2,921   
4.9%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 27, 2019, 10:57:16 PM
PROJECTION:

Candidate   Votes
Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
24,899   
39.9%
Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
22,772   
36.5%

Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
10,061   
16.1%
Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
1,282   
2.1%
Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
3,410   
5.5%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 28, 2019, 10:42:35 AM
Final:

Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
27,786   
39.1%
Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
25,669   
36.2%

Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
12,298   
17.3%
Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
1,305   
1.8%
Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
3,943   
5.6%

This is a tough district for a Dem to win, but these results point to anything being possible in Round 2. The Democrat won the most votes in this first round, and 5/9 counties went either for the Democrat or the third-place candidate. Republicans are clearly disunified and split. Should be an interesting runoff.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lisa's voting Biden on August 28, 2019, 06:17:47 PM
Final:

Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
27,786   
39.1%
Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
25,669   
36.2%

Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
12,298   
17.3%
Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
1,305   
1.8%
Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
3,943   
5.6%

This is a tough district for a Dem to win, but these results point to anything being possible in Round 2. The Democrat won the most votes in this first round, and 5/9 counties went either for the Democrat or the third-place candidate. Republicans are clearly disunified and split. Should be an interesting runoff.
Voted for Cox by 22.4% and Trump by 20.6. It's Titanium R. The runoff will be fairly straightforward and Dahle will win by 25-26 points.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MaxQue on August 28, 2019, 07:40:24 PM
Final:

Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
27,786   
39.1%
Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
25,669   
36.2%

Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
12,298   
17.3%
Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
1,305   
1.8%
Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
3,943   
5.6%

This is a tough district for a Dem to win, but these results point to anything being possible in Round 2. The Democrat won the most votes in this first round, and 5/9 counties went either for the Democrat or the third-place candidate. Republicans are clearly disunified and split. Should be an interesting runoff.
Voted for Cox by 22.4% and Trump by 20.6. It's Titanium R. The runoff will be fairly straightforward and Dahle will win by 25-26 points.

I struggle to see how the margin will be over 22. You did some people voted D now and will vote for Dahle in the runoff?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Fubart Solman on August 29, 2019, 03:46:14 PM
Can’t believe I missed this one. I blame the issues I’ve been having getting the paper delivered.

But yeah, it’s titanium R in the general. So Dahle’s sister/wife/daughter/whatever will in all likelihood be the next assemblywoman.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on September 04, 2019, 09:16:48 AM
GA-71 Result:

NINA BLACKWELDER (REP)6.86%343
JILL E. PROUTY (DEM)22.11%1,106
MARCY WESTMORELAND SAKRISON (REP)34.20%1,711
PHILIP SINGLETON (REP)36.84%1,843

5,003


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 01, 2019, 07:45:40 PM
GA-71 Runoff:

MARCY WESTMORELAND SAKRISON (REP)41.14%1,788
PHILIP SINGLETON (REP)58.86%2,558
4,346

SC-84 - 57% in:

REP Melissa Oremus96.69%146
NON NON   Write-in3.31%5
151


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 08, 2019, 10:10:47 PM
Final results GOP Vose edges Democrat Andrews in Epping, 880-806.

(NH Rockingham 9)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 11:48:21 AM
Strap in everyone, we have special elections tonight:



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Fubart Solman on November 05, 2019, 05:36:24 PM
There’s also one in the far northeastern corner of California, Assembly District 1, to replace Brian Dahle. Dahle won the special election for the 1st Senate District after Ted Gaines resigned to take his seat on the state Board of Equalization.

Republican Megan Dahle (Brian’s wife) is facing Democrat Elizabeth Betancourt. In all likelihood, this one will be a snooze and will stay Republican.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: libertpaulian on November 05, 2019, 06:23:44 PM
The Texas one will be interesting, especially now that Texas is in a post-Beto environment.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 10:06:36 PM
()

BIG pickup for Missouri Democrats in West County.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2019, 10:17:02 PM
()

Democrat leading in HD-28 against an extremely divided GOP field, think this heads to a runoff.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lisa's voting Biden on November 05, 2019, 10:33:50 PM
Republicans flip NJ SD-01.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: lfromnj on November 05, 2019, 10:35:56 PM
Another California special
https://www.pe.com/2019/10/30/state-sen-jeff-stone-to-resign-after-accepting-department-of-labor-job/
Eastern riverside county
Trump +2, seems Likely R too me IMO.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Bojack Horseman on November 05, 2019, 10:47:43 PM

How many did we lose in the Assembly?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gracile on November 05, 2019, 10:52:26 PM

This is Jeff Van Drew's old seat, further showing that he might face some serious trouble come 2020.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lisa's voting Biden on November 05, 2019, 11:00:43 PM
Republicans picked up Assembly District 1, 2, and are currently leading in District 38.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 05, 2019, 11:33:49 PM
Results:

AL-42: Republican Van Smith was the winner: https://www.wsfa.com/2019/11/06/van-smith-wins-special-election-state-house-district-seat/

AR-36: Election was cancelled due to republicans not contesting the Seat. Democrat Denise Ennett was the winner of the Democratic Primary.

GA-152: Going to a December 3 Runoff:

State Representative, District 152
69% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING
Jim Quinn (R) 3,833 42%
 Bill Yearta (R) 3,164 34%

Mary Egler (D) 1,378 15%
Tyler Johnson (R) 829 9%

KY-18 and 63: Republican wins in both cases; was covered on the main ky results thread

MS-50: Another Republican win: https://www.sunherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article237048004.html

NJ-1: Republican hold per NYT

NY-57: Easy republican hold:


State Senate - District 57 - Special General
121 of 215 Precincts Reporting - 56% Updated: 22:52 ET
Party Name Votes Vote %
GOP Borrello, George 25,508 71.90 %
Dem Morgan, Austin 9,970 28.10 %

TN-77 Primary:

Tennessee House District 77 - Republican Primary
View County Breakdown (Republican)
Candidate Votes %
Rusty Grills 4,210 55.90%
Casey L Hood 1,918 25.47%
Bob Kirk 759 10.08%
Vanedda Prince Webb 644 8.55%

Tennessee House District 77 - Democratic Primary
View County Breakdown (Democratic)
Candidate Votes %
Michael Smith 526 100.00%

TX-28: Going to D v R runoff https://patch.com/texas/sugarland/texas-state-house-28-2019-election-results

TX-100: Going to a D v D runoff https://patch.com/texas/dallas-ftworth/texas-state-house-100-2019-election-results

TX-148: Going to a D v R Runoff https://patch.com/texas/houston/texas-state-house-148-2019-election-results

-----------


Missouri Results here: https://enr.sos.mo.gov/

Dems have won District 22, District 36, District 74, District 78, District 99
GOP has won District 158


Washington results here: https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/Legislative-All.html

Dems won District 40; GOP won District 13-2.

Stay tuned for the California result





Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: lfromnj on November 06, 2019, 12:53:41 AM

This is Jeff Van Drew's old seat, further showing that he might face some serious trouble come 2020.
Meh the real problem is the R's flipping NJ2.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 06, 2019, 01:19:37 AM
Republicans win CA - 1:

Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
33,411
42.4%
Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
 45,303
57.6%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ebsy on November 06, 2019, 01:23:33 AM
WRONG, Republicans did not win HD-99 in Missouri.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 06, 2019, 01:26:59 AM
Schedule for the rest of the year:


11/12: AL House 74
12/3: Georgia House 152 Runoff
12/10: AR House 22 Primary
12/19: TN House 77
TBD: TX Runoffs for House 28, 100, 148


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 06, 2019, 01:27:12 AM
WRONG, Republicans did not win HD-99 in Missouri.


fixing


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MarkD on November 06, 2019, 12:04:05 PM
A Democrat winning MO HD99 is rather surprising. I don't think that area has ever elected a Democrat before, at least, not in the last few decades. If there was any district in SW St. Louis County that would elect a Democrat, it would be 99, and most of the other adjacent districts that surround it are more heavily Republican than 99. A year ago the incumbent won re-election with only 53%, but two years before that she won her first election with 58%, while the district voted for Trump by a margin of only 5 percentage points and in general supported the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. In 2014, the district re-elected an incumbent Republican with 63.5%, and two years before that it voted for him by 59%, while generally supporting the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. So this is a big win for the Democrats. It's hard to say whether this Democrat can win a whole term next year.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 06, 2019, 12:13:02 PM
A Democrat winning MO HD99 is rather surprising. I don't think that area has ever elected a Democrat before, at least, not in the last few decades. If there was any district in SW St. Louis County that would elect a Democrat, it would be 99, and most of the other adjacent districts that surround it are more heavily Republican than 99. A year ago the incumbent won re-election with only 53%, but two years before that she won her first election with 58%, while the district voted for Trump by a margin of only 5 percentage points and in general supported the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. In 2014, the district re-elected an incumbent Republican with 63.5%, and two years before that it voted for him by 59%, while generally supporting the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. So this is a big win for the Democrats. It's hard to say whether this Democrat can win a whole term next year.

And the trends continue. I'm actually wondering how the WOW counties will look like in WI next year.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Annatar on November 06, 2019, 12:19:27 PM
There were plenty of legislative districts Dems won in 2017-18 special elections due to low turnout overall that they ended up losing in the 2018 midterms when turnout was higher overall.

For example Dems won Senate District 1 in WI in June 2018 by 3% after Trump had won it only to lose it again in the midterms. 28,427 people voted in SD 1 in the June Special compared to 86,678 in the midterms when it flipped back to being Republican.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ebsy on November 06, 2019, 12:23:30 PM
HD-99 contains Manchester, one of the tony suburbs in West St. Louis County notable for its strip malls which stretch for miles along Manchester as well as Valley Park, a more middle class Meramec River suburb that is protected by a big 'ole army corps of engineers levee. That it is now represented by a Democrat is frankly insane, but that's suburban trends for you.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on November 07, 2019, 06:53:41 PM
I’m guessing Nicole Galloway won HD-99 last year since she crushed it pretty much everywhere in the suburbs, but does anyone know if McCaskill did as well?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ebsy on November 08, 2019, 12:41:09 PM
I’m guessing Nicole Galloway won HD-99 last year since she crushed it pretty much everywhere in the suburbs, but does anyone know if McCaskill did as well?
Both did, yes. I believe by quite a bit as well, but I don't have the numbers on hand.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: crazy jimmie on November 08, 2019, 04:30:46 PM
A Democrat winning MO HD99 is rather surprising. I don't think that area has ever elected a Democrat before, at least, not in the last few decades. If there was any district in SW St. Louis County that would elect a Democrat, it would be 99, and most of the other adjacent districts that surround it are more heavily Republican than 99. A year ago the incumbent won re-election with only 53%, but two years before that she won her first election with 58%, while the district voted for Trump by a margin of only 5 percentage points and in general supported the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. In 2014, the district re-elected an incumbent Republican with 63.5%, and two years before that it voted for him by 59%, while generally supporting the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. So this is a big win for the Democrats. It's hard to say whether this Democrat can win a whole term next year.

And the trends continue. I'm actually wondering how the WOW counties will look like in WI next year.

If 2018 results are any indication.. pretty bad for Democrats but I am thinking the Democrat could pass 40% in Ozaukee County.

Wisconsin is bucking the "trends" slightly but it could royally suck for Democrats if Trump does as well in 2020 as 2016 in driftless and WOW does not move.

HD-99 contains Manchester, one of the tony suburbs in West St. Louis County notable for its strip malls which stretch for miles along Manchester as well as Valley Park, a more middle class Meramec River suburb that is protected by a big 'ole army corps of engineers levee. That it is now represented by a Democrat is frankly insane, but that's suburban trends for you.

It is insane especially since it was not that long ago that it was being discussed that Democrats needed to win seats in the lead belt and northern Missouri to break the GOP supermajority. Now it is clear we can break the supermajority in the suburbs. We have some room to grow locally on both sides of the state.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 08, 2019, 09:27:10 PM
A Democrat winning MO HD99 is rather surprising. I don't think that area has ever elected a Democrat before, at least, not in the last few decades. If there was any district in SW St. Louis County that would elect a Democrat, it would be 99, and most of the other adjacent districts that surround it are more heavily Republican than 99. A year ago the incumbent won re-election with only 53%, but two years before that she won her first election with 58%, while the district voted for Trump by a margin of only 5 percentage points and in general supported the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. In 2014, the district re-elected an incumbent Republican with 63.5%, and two years before that it voted for him by 59%, while generally supporting the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. So this is a big win for the Democrats. It's hard to say whether this Democrat can win a whole term next year.

And the trends continue. I'm actually wondering how the WOW counties will look like in WI next year.

If 2018 results are any indication.. pretty bad for Democrats but I am thinking the Democrat could pass 40% in Ozaukee County.

Wisconsin is bucking the "trends" slightly but it could royally suck for Democrats if Trump does as well in 2020 as 2016 in driftless and WOW does not move.


Well, Trump failed to crack 60% in Waukesha in 2016. I wouldn't be surprised if he got, maybe, around 55% this time around--something like 55-42.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MarkD on November 09, 2019, 04:28:55 AM
I’m guessing Nicole Galloway won HD-99 last year since she crushed it pretty much everywhere in the suburbs, but does anyone know if McCaskill did as well?
Both did, yes. I believe by quite a bit as well, but I don't have the numbers on hand.

I've calculated a few statistics about HD-99. Clarifying what I said above, this district voted for Trump in 2016 by 49.32% to Clinton's 44.21%; meanwhile the district generally supported the Republican ticket by 53.43% to 43.47%. But you're right that in 2018 it swung to Galloway and McCaskill. In District 99, Galloway won the Auditor's race 56.86% to 38.36%, while McCaskill carried the district by 53.20% to Hawley's 44.24%. And Democrat Cort VanOstran carried the district with 50.19% to Rep. Wagner's 48.10%. At the same time (as I noted above) the incumbent Republican state Rep. won with only 53%.

Don't count on this Democratic swing in HD-99 seeping into any adjacent districts, though. HD-99 shares boundaries with HD-90, which already swung to the Democrat earlier this decade, HD-89, HD-96, HD-98, and HD-100, all of which are much more heavily Republican than HD-99. Each of those districts supported the Republican ticket by at least 60% in 2016. (I suppose I could calculate how well Galloway, McCaskill, and VanOstran did in 89, 96, 98, and 100, but that's going to take some more time.)

There's only one other district anywhere in St. Louis County that Democrats have a good chance to pick up soon and that's HD-94 in SE County. Besides that, there are one or two possible districts in St. Charles County, such as HD-65 and HD-106, and certainly Democrats need to put in a lot of effort to win back some seats in Jefferson County that flipped Republican only in the relatively recent past.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 12, 2019, 08:18:23 PM
Later tonight, results for the AL-74 special will appear here: http://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionnight/statewideResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1001055


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 12, 2019, 10:14:24 PM
Later tonight, results for the AL-74 special will appear here: http://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionnight/statewideResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1001055

The Republican won with 69%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Annatar on November 13, 2019, 09:00:37 AM
Later tonight, results for the AL-74 special will appear here: http://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionnight/statewideResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1001055

The Republican won with 69%

What was Trump's percentage in this seat, Dailykos doesn't show the numbers for it in its elections sheet.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Annatar on November 13, 2019, 09:04:00 AM
An interesting milestone, according to Daily Kos. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dXQhlzCAw05fC7P21eCivdfLOB-F3nykPVRPzG49U9g/edit#gid=0

In special elections post Nov 6 2018 the swing is now 0.3% towards the GOP when looking at 2012 Romney vs Obama, that is dems have done 0.3% worse in special elections on average since Nov 2018 than Obama did. Compared to 2016, Dems are doing 4.8% better, they have slipped below the 5% mark for the average swing.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on November 13, 2019, 10:49:48 PM
There will (almost certainly) be a special election next year in Maine House District 35 (Westbrook north of the Presumpscot River) to replace Ann Peoples (D), who died yesterday (https://www.pressherald.com/2019/11/13/westbrooks-ann-peoples-dies-at-72/?fbclid=IwAR1B-x-QWdVcxHLrkhMTUbOxPEeGP1lGkCLGqkgCs5RT1_4Kb--0Feg9QMQ) at age 72.  She had apparently been ill for some time.

Under the Maine Constitution, which is very strict about filling vacancies in the State Senate, a vacancy in the Maine House of Representatives "may" be filled by special election but doesn't actually have to be filled before the end of the term.  Either the Maine Constitution or state statutes (I believe the latter) require municipal officers in a city or town in the district to pass an order asking the Governor to declare the vacancy and order a special election before one can be held (for State Representative).  I know in 2012 a Republican State Representative accused and I believe eventually convicted of pocketing Clean Election cash delayed resigining until early in that year, and no special election was held.  But for a vacancy occurring before the end of the year, it may be unheard of for a special election not to take place.  It might not be until March 3, when the state has its Presidential Primaries (that would save Westbrook from having to hold a separate election, plus would be rather convenient for Democrats who might have more incentive to turn out), but with polls being open throughout the state anyway on that date I assume the election will be held then if not earlier (my guess is it will be on that date).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: jimrtex on November 20, 2019, 02:04:55 AM

January 28, 2020


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on December 01, 2019, 11:52:10 PM
Two special elections for previously Republican-held state senate seats in Massachusetts will be held early next year, likely coinciding with the state’s Democratic Presidential primary on March 3rd. It’s important to note that the state senate sets the dates for these specials, not Gov. Baker (R).

In Don Humason’s (R) Hampden County seat, the only candidate to announce so far is State Rep. John Velis (D). He probably starts out as the overwhelming favorite to flip the seat since any Republican path to victory in this seat runs through running up the score in Westfield, a Trump-won town that Mr. Velis represents in the lower house. The senate seat overall voted for Clinton 52-41. Likely D.

In the Plymouth-Barnstable seat vacated by Vinny DeMacedo, four Democrats are running to replace him and two Republicans. Three of the Democrats have elected office experience whereas none of the Republicans do in this 49-44 Clinton seat. Lean D.

If Democrats flip both of these seats, they will have a 36-4 advantage in the state senate. It is remarkable how pathetic the Massachusetts GOP is outside of their gubernatorial streak: I realized two Democrats sit in Trump seats in the state senate, including one in a 51-41 Trump sear!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 03, 2019, 09:23:34 PM
Not sure if this belongs in this thread, but I don't know where else to put it so...

The Savannah, GA mayorship flipped tonight. Democrat Van Johnson beat Republican first-term incumbent Eddie DeLoach by 23 points.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ON Progressive on December 03, 2019, 10:23:35 PM
Since this somehow hasn't been mentioned here, I'll mention this:

Kentucky State House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins will resign from the State House, which he has served in since 1987, to take a role as a senior adviser for Governor-elect Andy Beshear.

This resignation will open up Adkins' Romney +17/Trump +39 seat for a special election. It should be noted that Beshear did carry this district 51-47, so Democratic ancestry is still fairly strong here in state elections.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on December 03, 2019, 10:39:06 PM
Since this somehow hasn't been mentioned here, I'll mention this:

Kentucky State House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins will resign from the State House, which he has served in since 1987, to take a role as a senior adviser for Governor-elect Andy Beshear.

This resignation will open up Adkins' Romney +17/Trump +39 seat for a special election. It should be noted that Beshear did carry this district 51-47, so Democratic ancestry is still fairly strong here in state elections.

I'm shocked Trump didn't carry it by more tbh


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on December 03, 2019, 10:42:16 PM
Since this somehow hasn't been mentioned here, I'll mention this:

Kentucky State House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins will resign from the State House, which he has served in since 1987, to take a role as a senior adviser for Governor-elect Andy Beshear.

This resignation will open up Adkins' Romney +17/Trump +39 seat for a special election. It should be noted that Beshear did carry this district 51-47, so Democratic ancestry is still fairly strong here in state elections.

I'm shocked Trump didn't carry it by more tbh

If there is any Trump +YUGE open seat that a Dem can still win, it's this one.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lisa's voting Biden on December 04, 2019, 12:02:27 AM
Not sure if this belongs in this thread, but I don't know where else to put it so...

The Savannah, GA mayorship flipped tonight. Democrat Van Johnson beat Republican first-term incumbent Eddie DeLoach by 23 points.
Another mayoral race of interest - Boise, Idaho. This is a nonpartisan office, but both candidates are effectively Democrats.

The incumbent, Dave Bieter, has served since 2004. His most recent victory was 2015, where he won by ~40%.

Now in 2019, he has become wildly unpopular. He barely hit 30% while his main challenger Lauren McLean hit 46%.

A runoff election was held today, and he lost by 31%, not winning a single precinct in the city.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ON Progressive on December 04, 2019, 12:46:44 AM
Since this somehow hasn't been mentioned here, I'll mention this:

Kentucky State House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins will resign from the State House, which he has served in since 1987, to take a role as a senior adviser for Governor-elect Andy Beshear.

This resignation will open up Adkins' Romney +17/Trump +39 seat for a special election. It should be noted that Beshear did carry this district 51-47, so Democratic ancestry is still fairly strong here in state elections.

I'm shocked Trump didn't carry it by more tbh

It’s still probably the least rough East KY seat for Dems upballot because Elliott is still somewhat more D than a lot of its neighbours and Rowan has Morehead State University.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Nyvin on December 04, 2019, 09:17:53 AM
Not sure if this belongs in this thread, but I don't know where else to put it so...

The Savannah, GA mayorship flipped tonight. Democrat Van Johnson beat Republican first-term incumbent Eddie DeLoach by 23 points.

Deloach winning in 2015 was probably a fluke more than anything.   Savannah is 55% black and quite urban obviously.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 05, 2019, 09:58:11 PM
Another republican flips with Chad Mayes standing under No Party Preference (https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article238093644.html), defecting from the Assembly GOP. His districts straddles Riverside and San Bernadino counties. It's increasingly clear that you will find better luck as a faction inside the state democratic party than as a GOP politician on the outside.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: lfromnj on December 05, 2019, 10:05:53 PM
Chad Mayes also represents a Trump district lol.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Yellowhammer on December 06, 2019, 12:21:59 AM

More like Virgin Mayes if you ask me


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 10, 2019, 12:08:40 PM
Last week:

A former mayor edged out his opponent in a close runoff special election Tuesday for a vacant southwest Georgia state House seat.

Bill Yearta, a jeweler and former mayor of Sylvester, received about 115 more votes than his opponent Jim Quinn, according to unofficial results from the Secretary of State’s office.


The two Republicans — both former mayors — faced off Tuesday to replace former state Rep. Ed Rynders, R-Albany, who resigned earlier this year. They were the top two vote-getters in a four-way special election last month.

Yearta received about 50.9% of the more than 6,700 votes cast on Tuesday,


Tonight we have the AR-22 Primary


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 11, 2019, 01:17:08 AM
()


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: lfromnj on December 19, 2019, 11:58:19 PM
Btw Wulfric you forgot tonights TN HD 77.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 20, 2019, 12:32:10 AM
The first post impeachment Special did not end well.

Rusty Grills   Republican   3,344   85.24%
Michael Smith   Democratic   504   12.85%
Max Smith   Independent   39   0.99%
Ronnie Henley   Independent   21   0.54%
Billy M Jones   Independent   15   0.38%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on December 20, 2019, 05:28:06 AM
The first post impeachment Special did not end well.

Rusty Grills   Republican   3,344   85.24%
Michael Smith   Democratic   504   12.85%
Max Smith   Independent   39   0.99%
Ronnie Henley   Independent   21   0.54%
Billy M Jones   Independent   15   0.38%

Democrats seems to be dead as dodo in this ancestrally Democratic area..


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 21, 2019, 12:30:09 AM
Schedule:

1/14: AR-34 Primary, CT-48, CT-132, KY-38, PA-48, MN-30A Primary
1/21: CT-151, MN-60A Primary, NH Merrimack District 24 Primary
1/28: GA-171 Jungle, Runoffs for TX 28, 100 (D v D), 148
2/4: MA 32nd Middlesex Primary, MN-30A, 60A, RI-56 Primary, GA-13 Jungle
2/11: AR-34 Primary Runoff (if needed)
2/25: PA-190, GA-171 Runoff (if needed), KY-67, KY-99


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on January 05, 2020, 04:11:54 PM
There will (almost certainly) be a special election next year in Maine House District 35 (Westbrook north of the Presumpscot River) to replace Ann Peoples (D), who died yesterday (https://www.pressherald.com/2019/11/13/westbrooks-ann-peoples-dies-at-72/?fbclid=IwAR1B-x-QWdVcxHLrkhMTUbOxPEeGP1lGkCLGqkgCs5RT1_4Kb--0Feg9QMQ) at age 72.  She had apparently been ill for some time.

Under the Maine Constitution, which is very strict about filling vacancies in the State Senate, a vacancy in the Maine House of Representatives "may" be filled by special election but doesn't actually have to be filled before the end of the term.  Either the Maine Constitution or state statutes (I believe the latter) require municipal officers in a city or town in the district to pass an order asking the Governor to declare the vacancy and order a special election before one can be held (for State Representative).  I know in 2012 a Republican State Representative accused and I believe eventually convicted of pocketing Clean Election cash delayed resigining until early in that year, and no special election was held.  But for a vacancy occurring before the end of the year, it may be unheard of for a special election not to take place.  It might not be until March 3, when the state has its Presidential Primaries (that would save Westbrook from having to hold a separate election, plus would be rather convenient for Democrats who might have more incentive to turn out), but with polls being open throughout the state anyway on that date I assume the election will be held then if not earlier (my guess is it will be on that date).
It's starting to look like there will not be a special election in Maine's House District 35 (and in Maine's House District 128, whose incumbent Arthur "Archie" Verow died December 19, 2019) after all.  Rep. Peoples's funeral wasn't held until December 14, over a month after her passing, and by that time enough day-to-day stuff might have gone on in Westbrook that the "okay, now we need to request that the Governor declare a special election to fill the vacancy" never occurred to municipal officers in the city.  Rep. Verow's funeral was on December 30.  Neither special election has been called yet, and there may not be enough time for them to be held on March 3 when Maine holds its presidential primaries (both major parties, although President Trump is the only candidate on the Republican ballot) and a special referendum election on blocking Maine's "no complete vaccination, no public school, no exceptions" policy passed on a mostly party-line vote in the Legislature last year.

Municipal officials (like municipal clerks) were already grumbling a bit about the extra expense and hassle of a third election next year (in addition to the June 9 primary election for congressional, state and county offices and the November 3 General Election), so municipal officers (elected officials) in Westbrook and Brewer won't likely give the Governor authorization to call a special election if they think that might result in their having yet another election to provide for.  The statutory adjournment date for this year's regular session of the Maine Legislature is April 15 (the third Wednesday in April), so unless there was an anticipated special session in the summer or fall it doesn't look like a special election would be called for June 9.  So the two seats (and any others that become vacant during the remainder of this term) will likely remain unfilled until the 130th Maine Legislature is sworn in on I believe December 2 of this year (the first Wednesday in December).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: jbrian on January 10, 2020, 03:26:47 AM
bump


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on January 10, 2020, 07:51:52 PM
There will (almost certainly) be a special election next year in Maine House District 35 (Westbrook north of the Presumpscot River) to replace Ann Peoples (D), who died yesterday (https://www.pressherald.com/2019/11/13/westbrooks-ann-peoples-dies-at-72/?fbclid=IwAR1B-x-QWdVcxHLrkhMTUbOxPEeGP1lGkCLGqkgCs5RT1_4Kb--0Feg9QMQ) at age 72.  She had apparently been ill for some time.

Under the Maine Constitution, which is very strict about filling vacancies in the State Senate, a vacancy in the Maine House of Representatives "may" be filled by special election but doesn't actually have to be filled before the end of the term.  Either the Maine Constitution or state statutes (I believe the latter) require municipal officers in a city or town in the district to pass an order asking the Governor to declare the vacancy and order a special election before one can be held (for State Representative).  I know in 2012 a Republican State Representative accused and I believe eventually convicted of pocketing Clean Election cash delayed resigining until early in that year, and no special election was held.  But for a vacancy occurring before the end of the year, it may be unheard of for a special election not to take place.  It might not be until March 3, when the state has its Presidential Primaries (that would save Westbrook from having to hold a separate election, plus would be rather convenient for Democrats who might have more incentive to turn out), but with polls being open throughout the state anyway on that date I assume the election will be held then if not earlier (my guess is it will be on that date).
It's starting to look like there will not be a special election in Maine's House District 35 (and in Maine's House District 128, whose incumbent Arthur "Archie" Verow died December 19, 2019) after all.  Rep. Peoples's funeral wasn't held until December 14, over a month after her passing, and by that time enough day-to-day stuff might have gone on in Westbrook that the "okay, now we need to request that the Governor declare a special election to fill the vacancy" never occurred to municipal officers in the city.  Rep. Verow's funeral was on December 30.  Neither special election has been called yet, and there may not be enough time for them to be held on March 3 when Maine holds its presidential primaries (both major parties, although President Trump is the only candidate on the Republican ballot) and a special referendum election on blocking Maine's "no complete vaccination, no public school, no exceptions" policy passed on a mostly party-line vote in the Legislature last year.

Municipal officials (like municipal clerks) were already grumbling a bit about the extra expense and hassle of a third election next year (in addition to the June 9 primary election for congressional, state and county offices and the November 3 General Election), so municipal officers (elected officials) in Westbrook and Brewer won't likely give the Governor authorization to call a special election if they think that might result in their having yet another election to provide for.  The statutory adjournment date for this year's regular session of the Maine Legislature is April 15 (the third Wednesday in April), so unless there was an anticipated special session in the summer or fall it doesn't look like a special election would be called for June 9.  So the two seats (and any others that become vacant during the remainder of this term) will likely remain unfilled until the 130th Maine Legislature is sworn in on I believe December 2 of this year (the first Wednesday in December).
Special election set to fill House District 128 seat (https://www.maine.gov/sos/news/2020/specialelecthd128.html)

Deadline for filing "caucus" (municipal committee) paperwork (Democrats, Republicans and Green( Independent)s) / nominating petitions (everyone else):  5 p.m. on Thursday, January 23, 2020.
Write-in candidate deadline:  5 p.m. on Tuesday, January 28, 2020.
Election date: Tuesday, March 3, 2020 (to coincide with Maine's Presidential Primaries and a referendum on whether or not to block the law passed last year eliminating all excemptions (philisophical and religious) to Maine's vaccination requirement for attending public schools)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on January 10, 2020, 07:53:28 PM
There will (almost certainly) be a special election next year in Maine House District 35 (Westbrook north of the Presumpscot River) to replace Ann Peoples (D), who died yesterday (https://www.pressherald.com/2019/11/13/westbrooks-ann-peoples-dies-at-72/?fbclid=IwAR1B-x-QWdVcxHLrkhMTUbOxPEeGP1lGkCLGqkgCs5RT1_4Kb--0Feg9QMQ) at age 72.  She had apparently been ill for some time.

Under the Maine Constitution, which is very strict about filling vacancies in the State Senate, a vacancy in the Maine House of Representatives "may" be filled by special election but doesn't actually have to be filled before the end of the term.  Either the Maine Constitution or state statutes (I believe the latter) require municipal officers in a city or town in the district to pass an order asking the Governor to declare the vacancy and order a special election before one can be held (for State Representative).  I know in 2012 a Republican State Representative accused and I believe eventually convicted of pocketing Clean Election cash delayed resigining until early in that year, and no special election was held.  But for a vacancy occurring before the end of the year, it may be unheard of for a special election not to take place.  It might not be until March 3, when the state has its Presidential Primaries (that would save Westbrook from having to hold a separate election, plus would be rather convenient for Democrats who might have more incentive to turn out), but with polls being open throughout the state anyway on that date I assume the election will be held then if not earlier (my guess is it will be on that date).
It's starting to look like there will not be a special election in Maine's House District 35 (and in Maine's House District 128, whose incumbent Arthur "Archie" Verow died December 19, 2019) after all.  Rep. Peoples's funeral wasn't held until December 14, over a month after her passing, and by that time enough day-to-day stuff might have gone on in Westbrook that the "okay, now we need to request that the Governor declare a special election to fill the vacancy" never occurred to municipal officers in the city.  Rep. Verow's funeral was on December 30.  Neither special election has been called yet, and there may not be enough time for them to be held on March 3 when Maine holds its presidential primaries (both major parties, although President Trump is the only candidate on the Republican ballot) and a special referendum election on blocking Maine's "no complete vaccination, no public school, no exceptions" policy passed on a mostly party-line vote in the Legislature last year.

Municipal officials (like municipal clerks) were already grumbling a bit about the extra expense and hassle of a third election next year (in addition to the June 9 primary election for congressional, state and county offices and the November 3 General Election), so municipal officers (elected officials) in Westbrook and Brewer won't likely give the Governor authorization to call a special election if they think that might result in their having yet another election to provide for.  The statutory adjournment date for this year's regular session of the Maine Legislature is April 15 (the third Wednesday in April), so unless there was an anticipated special session in the summer or fall it doesn't look like a special election would be called for June 9.  So the two seats (and any others that become vacant during the remainder of this term) will likely remain unfilled until the 130th Maine Legislature is sworn in on I believe December 2 of this year (the first Wednesday in December).
Special election set to fill House District 128 seat (https://www.maine.gov/sos/news/2020/specialelecthd128.html)

Deadline for filing "caucus" (municipal committee) paperwork (Democrats, Republicans and Green( Independent)s) / nominating petitions (everyone else):  5 p.m. on Thursday, January 23, 2020.
Write-in candidate deadline:  5 p.m. on Tuesday, January 28, 2020.
Election date: Tuesday, March 3, 2020 (to coincide with Maine's Presidential Primaries and a referendum on whether or not to block the law passed last year eliminating all excemptions (philisophical and religious) to Maine's vaccination requirement for attending public schools)
Meanwhile in House District 35, whose incumbent died over a month before the incumbent in House District 128 (and her funeral also happened first), no special election has been announced yet, and whoever drafted today's press release announcing the special election in House District 128 seemed to be trying to preemptively answer any questions as to why a special election was being held where the incumbent died later but not where the incumbent died earlier.  I don't recall ever seeing a paragraph like the following one in a press release announcing a special election (I checked and no equivalent paragraph was there for the announcements of the three state house special elections held last year):

"Per State election law, vacancies in House seats are not filled automatically; the municipal officers of the affected municipality must inform the governor if there is a need to fill the vacancy before the next general election. The governor shall then issue a proclamation and order a special election. The municipal officers of the City of Brewer so informed Gov. Janet Mills on January 3, 2020 and Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap signed the vacancy proclamation announcing the special election on Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2020."


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ebsy on January 14, 2020, 04:05:47 PM


Half of the Democrats in Senate seats in Kansas City are getting appointed to state jobs. Both Holsman and Curls are senior (Curls the most senior member of the Senate) and Holsman was known to have wanted to extend term limits so he could run again, as both of them were term limited this year. If they are confirmed and resign their seats, this should set up two special elections this summer to fill out the rest of their terms. Both seats are extremely Democratic: 7th: 67-27 Clinton; 80-17 Clinton. The real contest will be within the democratic committees in the senatorial district, who will decide who the Democratic nominee will be for each seat. As they were already term limited there are likely quite a few house members that were already looking to move up, so I expect fierce competition for the nominations.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on January 14, 2020, 11:37:31 PM
 Tonight's Results:

AR-34 Primary:

 H. "OTIS" TYLER (DEM)  .  .  .  .  .  .         51    7.38            37             0            12             2             0
 JOY C. SPRINGER (DEM)  .  .  .  .  .  .        295   42.69           213             0            59            23             0
 LEE MILLER (DEM) .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .        109   15.77            80             0            22             7             0
 RYAN D. DAVIS (DEM) .  .  .  .  .  .  .        236   34.15           162             0            67             7             0
    Over Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .          0                     0             0             0             0             0
   Under Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .          3                     0             0             3             0             0

Runoff is on February 11th.



 CT-48/132: Democrats held the 48th while Republicans held the 132nd: https://www.courant.com/politics/hc-pol-special-election-results-20200115-npilqx5brzhaxmqjgte4dxvmse-story.html


KY-38: Republican hold 8,637 - 4,943. https://www.wdrb.com/news/republican-mike-nemes-wins-kentucky-district-special-election/article_4b00a1ba-3730-11ea-b9d6-b7a73fc0f19f.html


PA-48:
SCHROEDER, MICHAEL
(DEM)
35.3%
    Votes: 9,945
ARNOLD, DAVID J
(REP)
64.7%
    Votes: 18,228


MN-30A Primary:

Republican    Candidate    Totals    Pct    Graph
      Kathy Ziebarth    170    13.02%    
      Paul Novotny    1136    86.98%    
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    Candidate    Totals    Pct    Graph
      Chad Hobot    152    100.00%    


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Annatar on January 19, 2020, 09:41:22 PM
In the 52 special elections now where both parties share of the vote combined exceeded 90% since the 2018 midterms, Dems have out-performed Clinton by 3.9% and run behind Obama by 1.2%.

In the special elections held post 2016 through to the midterms, democrats had outperformed Clinton by 11.2% on average and Obama by 5.9%.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ebsy on January 20, 2020, 08:17:36 PM
There really is a lot less attention on these special elections than the ones in 2017-2018. Democrats (and maybe Republicans as well) are a lot more focused on the Democratic primary and national politics.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gracile on January 20, 2020, 10:02:16 PM
There really is a lot less attention on these special elections than the ones in 2017-2018. Democrats (and maybe Republicans as well) are a lot more focused on the Democratic primary and national politics.

The Democrats' relative powerlessness after 2016 was probably a big part of their success in special elections during that period as well. Trump in the White House, Republicans controlling Congress, and substantial Republican control at the state legislative level lead to extremely high turnout and attention/money given to races that might not have been given otherwise. Feeling like you have nothing is a powerful motivating force.

Now that Democrats have retaken the House and made modest gains in state legislatures (as well as focus being turned to the presidential race), these special elections are not seen as a high priority as they were in 2017/2018.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: lfromnj on January 26, 2020, 05:36:43 PM
https://ctmirror.org/2020/01/21/gops-harry-arora-wins-special-election-in-greenwich/

GOP holds on in Clinton +15 seat suburban seat in CT in Greenwich most SW town.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: lfromnj on January 28, 2020, 11:35:55 AM
Today is the 28th texas house special


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lisa's voting Biden on January 28, 2020, 11:38:16 AM
Today is the 28th texas house special
Where's the best place to look at results as they come in?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on January 28, 2020, 06:59:20 PM
Ok Texas HD 148 will be a safe D hold, but I have a feeling the margin will be very underwhelming since it a largely hispanic seat and the republican is hispanic while the dem is not, I will guess around a 58-42 ish dem win


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ajc0918 on January 28, 2020, 08:00:34 PM
TX-28 Results: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/TX/Fort_Bend/100355/web/#/summary


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ajc0918 on January 28, 2020, 08:02:35 PM
Early vote + absentee:
Gates (R) 59%
Markowitz (D) 41%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on January 28, 2020, 08:27:59 PM
These Dem losses are getting ridiculous. The one in Greenwich, CT was especially irritating.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on January 28, 2020, 08:30:15 PM
Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on January 28, 2020, 08:32:44 PM
Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

Dude this isn't even good trolling.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on January 28, 2020, 08:33:30 PM
Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

Dude this isn't even good trolling.

I’m genuinely curious

Early vote tells you jack about ED voting


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on January 28, 2020, 08:40:59 PM
Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

Dude this isn't even good trolling.

I’m genuinely curious

Early vote tells you jack about ED voting


Please stahp


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on January 28, 2020, 08:46:20 PM
What is the partisanship and demographic profile of this district like?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: UncleSam on January 28, 2020, 08:47:13 PM
Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

Dude this isn't even good trolling.

I’m genuinely curious

Early vote tells you jack about ED voting


Please stahp
Why are you acting like he’s trolling when he’s asking a legitimate question

Obviously the R is favored (Probably strongly)  based on the early vote but what’s the EV history in this district? Is it conclusive? Or is it still possibly a tight race?

If it doesn’t end up being a tight race then I kind of wonder why that is tbh. Does Gates have good connections within the district? I know a lot of outside D money went into this one.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on January 28, 2020, 08:58:27 PM
Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

Dude this isn't even good trolling.

I’m genuinely curious

Early vote tells you jack about ED voting


Please stahp
Why are you acting like he’s trolling when he’s asking a legitimate question

Obviously the R is favored (Probably strongly)  based on the early vote but what’s the EV history in this district? Is it conclusive? Or is it still possibly a tight race?

If it doesn’t end up being a tight race then I kind of wonder why that is tbh. Does Gates have good connections within the district? I know a lot of outside D money went into this one.

In a normal election, it is possibly the deciding race for control of the state house in a statistical sense.  In the special, everyone involved seemed to be behaving as if the Republican was obviously going to win.  This is unsurprising though, because Texas Republicans have a long history of running up the score in special elections vs. GE numbers, similar to Georgia.  This was true even in 2018.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ON Progressive on January 28, 2020, 09:01:47 PM
Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

Dude this isn't even good trolling.

I’m genuinely curious

Early vote tells you jack about ED voting


Please stahp
Why are you acting like he’s trolling when he’s asking a legitimate question

Obviously the R is favored (Probably strongly)  based on the early vote but what’s the EV history in this district? Is it conclusive? Or is it still possibly a tight race?

If it doesn’t end up being a tight race then I kind of wonder why that is tbh. Does Gates have good connections within the district? I know a lot of outside D money went into this one.

We can pretty much say this is over on the early vote. While Ds IIRC tend to do better on Election Day in Texas, they don't do dramatically better. And they'd have to, since you'd need nearly 60% of election day votes (assuming 12000 e-day votes) to see Dems win here at this point.

As for why it went this way (in order of my personal view of importance):
1) This district's Democratic base is mostly voters who aren't reliable for turning out in special elections, such as Latino/Hispanic voters.
2) This is a pretty Republican seat still. It's not as non-Atlas red as it used to be, but there's still a fair ways to go before you consider this a purple seat.
3) Gates has a ton of money, which let him severely outspend Democrats even with the outside money that came in.
4) Eliz ran a terrible campaign according to people I know on the ground, basically only targeting solidly Democratic voters in her GOTV and not even attempting persuasion in a district that you need crossover votes to win as a Democrat.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on January 28, 2020, 09:15:38 PM
Pretty much what I expected. If democrats are flipping Cruz seats, even marginal ones, that depend on low propensity Hispanics for a democratic victory as well as a sizable chunk of the white suburban vote, things are really looking horrible for republicans. This result is pretty much in line with what we have seen for the past few months-- slight democratic tilt, but not comparable to the 2017 special elections.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Nyvin on January 28, 2020, 09:25:00 PM
Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

Dude this isn't even good trolling.

I’m genuinely curious

Early vote tells you jack about ED voting


Please stahp
Why are you acting like he’s trolling when he’s asking a legitimate question

Obviously the R is favored (Probably strongly)  based on the early vote but what’s the EV history in this district? Is it conclusive? Or is it still possibly a tight race?

If it doesn’t end up being a tight race then I kind of wonder why that is tbh. Does Gates have good connections within the district? I know a lot of outside D money went into this one.

It voted 43.01% Hillary and 53.21% Trump in 2016 if that helps.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Annatar on January 28, 2020, 10:19:05 PM
All the numbers are in for GA 171, Trump won this seat 62.2-36.5 over Clinton, the margin being 25.7%. Today the combined R vote was 66.7% to the D vote of 33.3%. R Margin was 33.4%.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on January 28, 2020, 10:50:52 PM
Dems need to hang their heads in shame over this one. What a f***** embarrassment.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on January 28, 2020, 10:55:07 PM
Dems need to hang their heads in shame over this one. What a f***** embarrassment.
Over the Georgia result are you serious? Thats a ruby red district


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on January 28, 2020, 10:56:07 PM
Dems need to hang their heads in shame over this one. What a f***** embarrassment.
Over the Georgia result are you serious? Thats a ruby red district

I was referring to TX-HD28.

I'm already irritated with the Connecticut special election loss.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Annatar on January 28, 2020, 11:23:04 PM
Results in fully for TX HD 28, GOP margin is roughly 16%, somewhat better than Trump's 10% margin but not really a surprise, consistent with post 2018 midterm trend of democrats running slightly ahead to behind Clinton in special elections.

I would just add that turnout was very healthy for a special election at 20%, often these kinds of elections have 10% turnout.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Yellowhammer on January 28, 2020, 11:24:38 PM
Dems need to hang their heads in shame over this one. What a f***** embarrassment.
Over the Georgia result are you serious? Thats a ruby red district

I was referring to TX-HD28.

I'm already irritated with the Connecticut special election loss.

Democratic special election advantage is all but gone, perhaps even beginning to invert into a Republican advantage.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on January 28, 2020, 11:27:02 PM
Dems need to hang their heads in shame over this one. What a f***** embarrassment.
Over the Georgia result are you serious? Thats a ruby red district

I was referring to TX-HD28.

I'm already irritated with the Connecticut special election loss.

Democratic special election advantage is all but gone, perhaps even beginning to invert into a Republican advantage.

Check yourself:



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: SnowLabrador on January 29, 2020, 06:58:22 AM
Dems need to hang their heads in shame over this one. What a f***** embarrassment.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on January 29, 2020, 12:28:21 PM
Last two weeks of specials:

CT-151:

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Harry_Arora.jpg

Harry Arora (R)    54.4    2,345
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Moss.jpg

Cheryl Moss (D)    45.6    1,965
Ballotpedia Logo

There were no incumbents in this race. Source

Total votes: 4,310


MN-60A Primaries:

   Sydney Jordan (D)    28.5    1,318
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Jessica Intermill (D)    21.1    976
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Sonia Neculescu (D)    17.2    792
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Amal Ibrahim (D)    7.4    342
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Aaron Neumann (D)    5.8    269
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Zachary Wefel (D)    3.9    179
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Aswar_Rahman.png

Aswar Rahman (D)    3.8    175
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Susan Whitaker (D)    3.7    171
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Saciido Shaie (D)    3.4    157
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Piyali Nath Dalal (D)    3.2    149
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Mohamed Issa Barre (D)    1.9    89
Ballotpedia Logo

There were no incumbents in this race. Source

Total votes: 4,617
Republican primary election
The Republican primary was canceled due to lack of interest.

NH Merrimack 24 Primaries:

   Kathleen Martins (D)    100    66
Ballotpedia Logo

There were no incumbents in this race. Source

Total votes: 66
Republican primary election
Special Republican primary for New Hampshire House of Representatives Merrimack 24
Elliot Axelman defeated John Leavitt and David Ross in the special Republican primary for New Hampshire House of Representatives Merrimack 24 on January 21, 2020.

Candidate   %   Votes
✔   
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Elliot Axelman (R)    59.0    311
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/John_A._Leavitt.jpg

John Leavitt (R)    21.8    115
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

David Ross (R)   19.2    101


GA-171:

   Joe Campbell (R)    58.3    2,830
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Jewell Howard (D)    33.4    1,620
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Tommy Akridge (R)    8.4    407
Ballotpedia Logo

There were no incumbents in this race. Source

Total votes: 4,857


TX-28 Runoff:

   Gary Gates (R)    58.0    17,457
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Elizabeth_Markowitz.jpg

Elizabeth Markowitz (D)    42.0    12,617
Ballotpedia Logo

There were no incumbents in this race. Source

Total votes: 30,074

TX-100 Runoff:

   Lorraine Birabil (D)    66.3    1,643
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

James Armstrong III (D)    33.7    836
Ballotpedia Logo

There were no incumbents in this race. Source

Total votes: 2,479


TX-148 Runoff:

   Anna Eastman (D)    65.5    4,527
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/17F4140D-599C-4C7F-AEF9-024CB18B3CE5.jpg

Luis LaRotta (R)    34.5    2,388







Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on January 29, 2020, 12:42:57 PM
This thread never covered the MI-34 primary back on 1/7, so here's that:

   Cynthia Neeley (D)    29.1    1,158
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Sean Croudy (D)    14.3    570
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Santino Guerra (D)    11.5    458
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Charis Lee (D)    10.7    427
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Claudia Milton (D)    9.9    394
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Michael Clack (D)    7.8    309
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Monica Galloway (D)    7.6    302
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Candice Mushatt (D)    6.0    238
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Sherwood Pea Jr. (D)    2.3    90
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Vincent Lang (D)    0.7    27
Ballotpedia Logo

There were no incumbents in this race. Source

Total votes: 3,973
Republican primary election
Special Republican primary for Michigan House of Representatives District 34
Adam Ford advanced from the special Republican primary for Michigan House of Representatives District 34 on January 7, 2020.

Candidate   %   Votes
✔   
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Adam_Ford.jpg

Adam Ford (R)    100    137



------------------


Schedule:

2/4: MA 32nd Middlesex Primary, MN-30A, 60A, RI-56 Primary, GA-13 Jungle
2/11: AR-34 D Primary Runoff
2/25: PA-190, KY-67, KY-99
3/3: AR-22, AR-34, CA-28 JUNGLE, GA-13 Runoff (if needed), RI-56, ME-128, MA 32nd Middlesex, MA Primaries: Second Hampden & Hampshire, Plymouth & Barnstable, 37th Middlesex, Third Bristol
3/10: MI-34, NH Merrimack 24
3/17: PA 8, 18, 58
3/31: MA Second Hampden & Hampshire, Plymouth & Barnstable, 37th Middlesex, Third Bristol


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on February 02, 2020, 07:37:17 PM
Special election set to fill House District 128 seat (https://www.maine.gov/sos/news/2020/specialelecthd128.html)

Deadline for filing "caucus" (municipal committee) paperwork (Democrats, Republicans and Green( Independent)s) / nominating petitions (everyone else):  5 p.m. on Thursday, January 23, 2020.
Write-in candidate deadline:  5 p.m. on Tuesday, January 28, 2020.
Election date: Tuesday, March 3, 2020 (to coincide with Maine's Presidential Primaries and a referendum on whether or not to block the law passed last year eliminating all excemptions (philisophical and religious) to Maine's vaccination requirement for attending public schools)
Candidates who will be on the ballot:

Garrel R. Craig (R) - former State Rep. (served Dec. 2016 to Dec. 2018; unseated the guy who just died in 2016 only to be unseated himself in a 2018 rematch, although 2018 was a very Democratic year)
Kevin J. M. O'Connell (D) - former Mayor of Brewer

No idea if any write-in candidates declared by this past Tuesday's write-in candidate deadline.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 02, 2020, 09:38:56 PM
Special election set to fill House District 128 seat (https://www.maine.gov/sos/news/2020/specialelecthd128.html)

Deadline for filing "caucus" (municipal committee) paperwork (Democrats, Republicans and Green( Independent)s) / nominating petitions (everyone else):  5 p.m. on Thursday, January 23, 2020.
Write-in candidate deadline:  5 p.m. on Tuesday, January 28, 2020.
Election date: Tuesday, March 3, 2020 (to coincide with Maine's Presidential Primaries and a referendum on whether or not to block the law passed last year eliminating all excemptions (philisophical and religious) to Maine's vaccination requirement for attending public schools)
Candidates who will be on the ballot:

Garrel R. Craig (R) - former State Rep. (served Dec. 2016 to Dec. 2018; unseated the guy who just died in 2016 only to be unseated himself in a 2018 rematch, although 2018 was a very Democratic year)
Kevin J. M. O'Connell (D) - former Mayor of Brewer

No idea if any write-in candidates declared by this past Tuesday's write-in candidate deadline.

Rs win by at least 5%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on February 02, 2020, 11:29:24 PM
Special election set to fill House District 128 seat (https://www.maine.gov/sos/news/2020/specialelecthd128.html)

Deadline for filing "caucus" (municipal committee) paperwork (Democrats, Republicans and Green( Independent)s) / nominating petitions (everyone else):  5 p.m. on Thursday, January 23, 2020.
Write-in candidate deadline:  5 p.m. on Tuesday, January 28, 2020.
Election date: Tuesday, March 3, 2020 (to coincide with Maine's Presidential Primaries and a referendum on whether or not to block the law passed last year eliminating all excemptions (philisophical and religious) to Maine's vaccination requirement for attending public schools)
Candidates who will be on the ballot:

Garrel R. Craig (R) - former State Rep. (served Dec. 2016 to Dec. 2018; unseated the guy who just died in 2016 only to be unseated himself in a 2018 rematch, although 2018 was a very Democratic year)
Kevin J. M. O'Connell (D) - former Mayor of Brewer

No idea if any write-in candidates declared by this past Tuesday's write-in candidate deadline.

Rs win by at least 5%


Seems like any easy Dem hold if it’s on the day of the primary


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on February 04, 2020, 05:50:10 PM
Special election set to fill House District 128 seat (https://www.maine.gov/sos/news/2020/specialelecthd128.html)

Deadline for filing "caucus" (municipal committee) paperwork (Democrats, Republicans and Green( Independent)s) / nominating petitions (everyone else):  5 p.m. on Thursday, January 23, 2020.
Write-in candidate deadline:  5 p.m. on Tuesday, January 28, 2020.
Election date: Tuesday, March 3, 2020 (to coincide with Maine's Presidential Primaries and a referendum on whether or not to block the law passed last year eliminating all excemptions (philisophical and religious) to Maine's vaccination requirement for attending public schools)
Candidates who will be on the ballot:

Garrel R. Craig (R) - former State Rep. (served Dec. 2016 to Dec. 2018; unseated the guy who just died in 2016 only to be unseated himself in a 2018 rematch, although 2018 was a very Democratic year)
Kevin J. M. O'Connell (D) - former Mayor of Brewer

No idea if any write-in candidates declared by this past Tuesday's write-in candidate deadline.
I just found out that no write-in candidates filed the necessary declaration of write-in candidacy by the January 28 deadline.  Not that anyone likely cares, but I usually like to include that information when I'm posting who the candidates are in a special election.  There will still be a write-in box (there always is on "people elections" in Maine), but any write-in votes will be counted as blank ballots.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 04, 2020, 06:39:34 PM
Polls close in 21 minutes in GA. Results: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/101150/web/#/summary


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lisa's voting Biden on February 04, 2020, 07:11:14 PM
Polls close in 21 minutes in GA. Results: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/101150/web/#/summary
Polls have been closed for a little bit now. When are we going to see precincts report in?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 04, 2020, 07:15:21 PM
Polls close in 21 minutes in GA. Results: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/101150/web/#/summary
Polls have been closed for a little bit now. When are we going to see precincts report in?
Patience is a virtue


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 04, 2020, 07:25:17 PM
Early Vote from Lee County:

Votes
DEMMary Egler
66
6.36%
REPJim Quinn
833
80.25%
REPCarden H. Summers
139
13.39%

There are nine counties in the district, don't put too much stock in this one result.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 04, 2020, 07:44:47 PM
11% in:

Mary Egler
13.30%
475
REPJim Quinn
39.75%
1,420
REPCarden H. Summers
46.95%
1,677
Votes Cast
3,572


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 04, 2020, 07:56:55 PM
8/76 in:

DEMMary Egler
12.59%
513
REPJim Quinn
44.71%
1,822
REPCarden H. Summers
42.70%
1,740
Votes Cast
4,075


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 04, 2020, 09:00:50 PM
Mary Egler
1,487
15.21%
REPJim Quinn
4,026
41.17%
REPCarden H. Summers
4,266
43.62%
Votes Cast
9,779

53/76 in


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 04, 2020, 10:32:29 PM
Votes
DEMMary Egler
1,759
14.71%
REPJim Quinn
5,043
42.18%
REPCarden H. Summers
5,154
43.11%

Votes Cast
11,956

Going to a runoff between two Republicans. It's another failure for the Democratic Party.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 04, 2020, 10:36:35 PM
MN 30A:
Republican      Paul Novotny   1983   63.48%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Chad Hobot   1141   36.52%   
WRITE-IN**      WRITE-IN**   0   0.00%   

MN 60A:

Legal Marijuana Now      Marty Super   247   11.49%   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor      Sydney Jordan   1879   87.44%   
WRITE-IN**      WRITE-IN**   23   1.07%   




Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 04, 2020, 10:44:16 PM
MA-32 Primary: https://patch.com/massachusetts/melrose/kate-lipper-garabedian-wins-special-house-primary

RI-56 Primary: A primary was scheduled for February 4, 2020, but was canceled when Joshua Giraldo (D) was the only candidate to file for election.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Zaybay on February 05, 2020, 07:42:29 AM
Votes
DEMMary Egler
1,759
14.71%
REPJim Quinn
5,043
42.18%
REPCarden H. Summers
5,154
43.11%

Votes Cast
11,956

Going to a runoff between two Republicans. It's another failure for the Democratic Party.

Yes, it certainly was a failure for the Democrats to secure a spot in *checks notes* a rural Georgia seat that went Trump overwhelmingly.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on February 05, 2020, 09:27:06 AM
Votes
DEMMary Egler
1,759
14.71%
REPJim Quinn
5,043
42.18%
REPCarden H. Summers
5,154
43.11%

Votes Cast
11,956

Going to a runoff between two Republicans. It's another failure for the Democratic Party.

Yes, it certainly was a failure for the Democrats to secure a spot in *checks notes* a rural Georgia seat that went Trump overwhelmingly.

14.71% in a district with 32% Black population is NOT good anyway..


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 11, 2020, 11:48:59 PM
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 34
Vote for One  1
 JOY C. SPRINGER (DEM)  .  .  .  .  .  .        372   50.00           251             0            83            38             0
 RYAN D. DAVIS (DEM) .  .  .  .  .  .  .        372   50.00           276             0            82            14             0
    Over Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .          0                     0             0             0             0             0
   Under Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .          0                     0             0             0             0             0


Uh....welp.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Brittain33 on February 14, 2020, 07:46:43 AM
Votes
DEMMary Egler
1,759
14.71%
REPJim Quinn
5,043
42.18%
REPCarden H. Summers
5,154
43.11%

Votes Cast
11,956

Going to a runoff between two Republicans. It's another failure for the Democratic Party.

Yes, it certainly was a failure for the Democrats to secure a spot in *checks notes* a rural Georgia seat that went Trump overwhelmingly.

14.71% in a district with 32% Black population is NOT good anyway..

True. But it’s a special election, so either a candidate has a campaign and pulls the voters in, or doesn’t. If the Democrat is a Some Guy with no campaign and the Republicans bring out their voters, this is the result.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on February 15, 2020, 01:11:25 PM
Votes
DEMMary Egler
1,759
14.71%
REPJim Quinn
5,043
42.18%
REPCarden H. Summers
5,154
43.11%

Votes Cast
11,956

Going to a runoff between two Republicans. It's another failure for the Democratic Party.

Yes, it certainly was a failure for the Democrats to secure a spot in *checks notes* a rural Georgia seat that went Trump overwhelmingly.

14.71% in a district with 32% Black population is NOT good anyway..

True. But it’s a special election, so either a candidate has a campaign and pulls the voters in, or doesn’t. If the Democrat is a Some Guy with no campaign and the Republicans bring out their voters, this is the result.

Here i agree...


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 18, 2020, 08:13:41 PM
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 34
Vote for One  1
 JOY C. SPRINGER (DEM)  .  .  .  .  .  .        372   50.00           251             0            83            38             0
 RYAN D. DAVIS (DEM) .  .  .  .  .  .  .        372   50.00           276             0            82            14             0
    Over Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .          0                     0             0             0             0             0
   Under Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .          0                     0             0             0             0             0


Uh....welp.


Update:

The state has thrown out three provisional ballots that were under consideration to be counted.

There is a state directed recount scheduled for tomorrow evening

There are also up to 5 late overseas military ballots, those will be counted Friday.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on February 18, 2020, 09:22:38 PM
Why is nobody talking about the Wisconsin Supreme Court Primary today?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gass3268 on February 18, 2020, 09:42:29 PM
Why is nobody talking about the Wisconsin Supreme Court Primary today?

Because it's not a state legislature special election! :p

There's discussion in the Wisconsin Megathread.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 20, 2020, 02:11:52 AM
Springer has taken a one vote lead in the AR 34 Runoff: http://www.votepulaski.net/Elections/2020/House34SpecRUNOFF02112020/Recount/DOC021920-02192020211146.pdf

The race remains undecided - there may be up to five military ballots to count, and those will not be counted until Friday.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 22, 2020, 01:26:42 AM
Joy C. Springer has officially won the AR 34 Primary Runoff. The margin was 373-372. General is on Super Tuesday.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 25, 2020, 02:55:38 PM
Today's Elections:

Last Polls close at 7 ET: KY-67, KY-99
Polls close at 8 ET: PA-190 Results may be at: https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on February 25, 2020, 06:27:49 PM
Today's Elections:

Last Polls close at 7 ET: KY-67, KY-99
Polls close at 8 ET: PA-190 Results may be at: https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/

KY 67: https://campbellcountyclerkky.com/february-25-special-election-results/

dems should hold ky 67
Trump may have won it 49-44 but even Stumbo won it by 5-6.

And I think we will also hold ky 99 but we will see

ky 67 had 30 precincts in their 2018 election, and here are some maps

()

()


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 25, 2020, 06:33:53 PM
Trying to figure out how many precincts are in the seat


Precincts Reporting: 4

State Representative, 67th Representative District (Unexpired Term)

Mary Jo WEDDING (REP): 132
Rachel ROBERTS (DEM): 380


Edit: Possibly 16 precincts - https://campbellcountyclerkky.com/special-election-info/


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 25, 2020, 06:43:28 PM
Precincts Reporting: 10

State Representative, 67th Representative District (Unexpired Term)

Mary Jo WEDDING (REP): 317
Rachel ROBERTS (DEM): 805


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 25, 2020, 06:44:17 PM
PA: https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/Special/OfficeResults?ElectionID=79&ElectionType=S&IsActive=1


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 25, 2020, 06:49:14 PM
Precincts Reporting: 17

State Representative, 67th Representative District (Unexpired Term)

Mary Jo WEDDING (REP): 870
Rachel ROBERTS (DEM): 1594


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on February 25, 2020, 06:50:02 PM
Looking good in HD67!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on February 25, 2020, 06:57:56 PM
KY 99

()


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on February 25, 2020, 06:59:38 PM

Ancestral Ds coming in strong.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on February 25, 2020, 07:00:15 PM
()


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on February 25, 2020, 07:00:59 PM

It is also Redwine's home turf where he has been an education activist for 40 years.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on February 25, 2020, 07:03:15 PM
Man, I thought Dems were screwed because of McGovern though


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on February 25, 2020, 07:03:51 PM
()


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on February 25, 2020, 07:06:35 PM
()

Not good


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 25, 2020, 07:07:12 PM
Precincts Reporting: 30

State Representative, 67th Representative District (Unexpired Term)

Mary Jo WEDDING (REP): 1602
Rachel ROBERTS (DEM): 2906


This should be everything, I'll keep an eye on the page for a while though


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on February 25, 2020, 07:07:25 PM

For a Trump +45 county, I think a Dem lead is pretty good myself


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on February 25, 2020, 07:09:36 PM

Ok sorry my bad, you are right it is good, but not a good sign to keep the seat. Redwine won it by 10ish while Beshear by 20ish and Beshear barely won the seat.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on February 25, 2020, 07:10:36 PM

Ok sorry my bad, you are right it is good, but not a good sign to keep the seat.

That’s fair, but we really have no business holding this seat anyway.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on February 25, 2020, 07:11:04 PM
()


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on February 25, 2020, 07:11:19 PM

Ok sorry my bad, you are right it is good, but not a good sign to keep the seat.

That’s fair, but we really have no business holding this seat anyway.

Fair enough


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on February 25, 2020, 07:13:12 PM
No it aint over not a D hold yet, all of Lewis county is out.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 25, 2020, 07:14:14 PM
Redwine (D): 3,337
White (R): 2,694

Lewis County Still out


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on February 25, 2020, 07:16:12 PM
()

Projected D win, hold.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 25, 2020, 07:18:12 PM
Precincts Reporting: 31

State Representative, 67th Representative District (Unexpired Term)

Mary Jo WEDDING (REP): 1649
Rachel ROBERTS (DEM): 2955


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on February 25, 2020, 07:18:50 PM

()

Slightly better news


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 25, 2020, 07:20:03 PM
Redwine (D): 3,395
White (R): 2,712

Lewis County Still out


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on February 25, 2020, 07:22:42 PM
Based on turnout and margins on a model or two I have ran I expect White to net around 1000ish from Lewis, letting him win by 300ish.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on February 25, 2020, 07:24:13 PM
()

It is over.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 25, 2020, 07:26:52 PM
Redwine (D): 3,789
White (R): 4,768

Oof.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on February 25, 2020, 07:35:56 PM
Beshear doing well enough in Eastern Kentucky prolly had more to do with Bevin being sh!t than Adkins stumping for him


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ctherainbow on February 25, 2020, 07:36:51 PM
Are ya'll ready for the hotly contested and riveting edge-of-your-seat action in PA's 190th?

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.




Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on February 25, 2020, 07:39:05 PM
The suburban-rural realignment trucks on.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on February 25, 2020, 07:39:51 PM
Are ya'll ready for the hotly contested and riveting edge-of-your-seat action in PA's 190th?

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.



Yee

()

Trump vs HRC


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on February 25, 2020, 07:40:56 PM
Hopefully Roni Green breaks the corruption streak in that seat.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ctherainbow on February 25, 2020, 07:42:18 PM
Hopefully Roni Green breaks the corruption streak in that seat.

If she doesn't, I propose that we pack up the PA 190th Dems, the Florida Dems, and the Iowa Dems and ship them all off to Wyoming.    :p


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on February 25, 2020, 07:45:37 PM
Hopefully Roni Green breaks the corruption streak in that seat.

If she doesn't, I propose that we pack up the PA 190th Dems, the Florida Dems, and the Iowa Dems and ship them all off to Wyoming.    :p

Boot the NC and PA GOP to Vermont.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on February 25, 2020, 07:49:06 PM
PA-190 HD:
0 out of 80 precincts reporting

PROJECTED WINNER: GREEN, GWENDOLYN VERONICA
(DEM)

0%
    Votes: 0

LOGAN, WANDA
(REP)
0%
    Votes: 0


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ctherainbow on February 25, 2020, 07:53:46 PM
PA-190 HD:
0 out of 80 precincts reporting

PROJECTED WINNER: GREEN, GWENDOLYN VERONICA
(DEM)

0%
    Votes: 0

LOGAN, WANDA
(REP)
0%
    Votes: 0

Accurate.   >_<

Also, off-topic, but how does one add in that little check mark when posting?  Asking for a friend(me).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 25, 2020, 08:01:30 PM
Polls are closed in PA. Obligatory Reminder that the most Liberal Precincts typically come first.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ctherainbow on February 25, 2020, 08:08:05 PM
Polls are closed in PA. Obligatory Reminder that the most Liberal Precincts typically come first.

Damn, you right.  We'll have to wait for those 90% Dem precincts to come in and deal with the flood of 95% precincts.    :p


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on February 25, 2020, 08:13:06 PM
PA-190 HD:
0 out of 80 precincts reporting

PROJECTED WINNER: GREEN, GWENDOLYN VERONICA
(DEM)

0%
    Votes: 0

LOGAN, WANDA
(REP)
0%
    Votes: 0

Accurate.   >_<

Also, off-topic, but how does one add in that little check mark when posting?  Asking for a friend(me).

Yes we can be our own friends lol.

I just searched checkmark

()

clicked on the wiki article, and then highlighted the checkmark

()

paste it

()

hope it helps :)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ctherainbow on February 25, 2020, 08:14:40 PM
Yes we can be our own friends lol.

I just searched checkmark

()

clicked on the wiki article, and then highlighted the checkmark

()

paste it

()

hope it helps :)

Thanks!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 25, 2020, 08:38:34 PM
No results still. Did anyone vote in PA?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ctherainbow on February 25, 2020, 09:40:23 PM
PA-190

20% reporting

626(84.94%) Green(D)

111(15.06%) Logan(R)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ctherainbow on February 25, 2020, 09:42:08 PM
PA-190

41.25% reporting

1,210(86.18%) Green(D)

194(13.82%) Logan(R)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ctherainbow on February 25, 2020, 09:53:00 PM
PA-190

57.50% reporting

1,683(86.53%) Green(D)

262(13.47%) Logan(R)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ctherainbow on February 25, 2020, 10:03:41 PM
PA-190

76.25% reporting

2,168(86.1%) Green(D)

350(13.9%) Logan(R)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 25, 2020, 10:13:14 PM
WNN PROJECTION: DEM WINS PA 190!



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ctherainbow on February 25, 2020, 10:24:34 PM
PA-190

95% reporting

2,562(86.2%) Green(D)

410(13.8%) Logan(R)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on February 25, 2020, 11:52:07 PM
It seems, that present day Democratic party became as unacceptable to voters in most rural districts as present day Republican is in most urban ones. The same tendencies were clear in last year state legislative elections in Louisiana and Mississippi (except majority Black districts of course).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on February 25, 2020, 11:54:35 PM
It seems, that present day Democratic party became as unacceptable to voters in most rural districts as present day Republican is in most urban ones. The same tendencies were clear in last year state legislative elections in Louisiana and Mississippi (except majority Black districts of course).

Yeah, but the problem for the Republicans is that rural America is shrinking while suburban and urban America is growing and turning bluer. Demographics is going to hit the GOP like a freight train in the next two decades and I find it hard to imagine the party surviving in its current form.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on February 26, 2020, 12:37:58 AM
It seems, that present day Democratic party became as unacceptable to voters in most rural districts as present day Republican is in most urban ones. The same tendencies were clear in last year state legislative elections in Louisiana and Mississippi (except majority Black districts of course).

Yeah, but the problem for the Republicans is that rural America is shrinking while suburban and urban America is growing and turning bluer. Demographics is going to hit the GOP like a freight train in the next two decades and I find it hard to imagine the party surviving in its current form.

Probably. We will see.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 26, 2020, 01:55:56 PM
FINAL:

GREEN, GWENDOLYN VERONICA
(DEM)
86.26%
    Votes: 2,637
LOGAN, WANDA
(REP)
13.74%
    Votes: 420


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 26, 2020, 03:16:16 PM
Schedule:

3/3: AR-22, AR-34, CA-28 JUNGLE, GA-13 Runoff (R v R), RI-56, ME-128, MA 32nd Middlesex, MA Primaries: Second Hampden & Hampshire, Plymouth & Barnstable, 37th Middlesex, Third Bristol
3/10: MI-34, NH Merrimack 24
3/17: PA 8, 18, 58
3/31: MA Second Hampden & Hampshire, Plymouth & Barnstable, 37th Middlesex, Third Bristol
4/21: MS 88 JUNGLE


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Frodo on February 29, 2020, 02:20:56 PM
The first of many to follow in eastern Kentucky as November approaches:

Republican Wins Longtime Democratic Statehouse Seat In Eastern Kentucky (https://wfpl.org/republican-wins-longtime-democratic-statehouse-seat-in-eastern-kentucky/)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on March 01, 2020, 12:58:33 AM
The first of many to follow in eastern Kentucky as November approaches:

Republican Wins Longtime Democratic Statehouse Seat In Eastern Kentucky (https://wfpl.org/republican-wins-longtime-democratic-statehouse-seat-in-eastern-kentucky/)

Naturally. Democratic label is toxic in most rural areas, especially - in the South.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on March 01, 2020, 08:54:20 AM
It seems, that present day Democratic party became as unacceptable to voters in most rural districts as present day Republican is in most urban ones. The same tendencies were clear in last year state legislative elections in Louisiana and Mississippi (except majority Black districts of course).

Gee Captain Moderate, when was the last time Republicans have made serious efforts to win Clinton + 40 seat’s? I’ll give you a hint: they don’t try because they know it’s a lost cause. This district was a Trump +40 seat. It was gone this minute Beashear appointed Adkins to his cabinet.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mr.Phips on March 01, 2020, 10:16:14 AM
The first of many to follow in eastern Kentucky as November approaches:

Republican Wins Longtime Democratic Statehouse Seat In Eastern Kentucky (https://wfpl.org/republican-wins-longtime-democratic-statehouse-seat-in-eastern-kentucky/)

Looking at the districts, I wouldn’t be surprised if Republicans picked up 10 more seats in the Kentucky House this November.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Frodo on March 01, 2020, 03:40:19 PM
The first of many to follow in eastern Kentucky as November approaches:

Republican Wins Longtime Democratic Statehouse Seat In Eastern Kentucky (https://wfpl.org/republican-wins-longtime-democratic-statehouse-seat-in-eastern-kentucky/)

Looking at the districts, I wouldn’t be surprised if Republicans picked up 10 more seats in the Kentucky House this November.

That would be a 70+ majority.  And Imagine how much larger their House majority could grow after redistricting. 


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on March 02, 2020, 01:12:19 AM
The first of many to follow in eastern Kentucky as November approaches:

Republican Wins Longtime Democratic Statehouse Seat In Eastern Kentucky (https://wfpl.org/republican-wins-longtime-democratic-statehouse-seat-in-eastern-kentucky/)

Looking at the districts, I wouldn’t be surprised if Republicans picked up 10 more seats in the Kentucky House this November.

That would be a 70+ majority.  And Imagine how much larger their House majority could grow after redistricting. 


Say a prayer for Kentucky tonight...


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on March 02, 2020, 01:42:44 AM
Beshear beating Bevin is just a blip on the radar, McConnell will be fine, screw u Olowokandi for beating Johnson and I over the head with it.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 03, 2020, 02:37:21 PM
Poll Closings for tonight:

7 ET: GA
8 ET: ME, RI, MA
8:30 ET: AR
11:00 ET: CA


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 03, 2020, 06:31:17 PM
Polls are about to close in the state of Georgia. Results: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/101655/web.241347/


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 03, 2020, 07:25:34 PM
No counties are complete yet.

REPJim Quinn
983
73.80%
REPCarden H. Summers
349
26.20%
Votes Cast
1,332


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 03, 2020, 11:10:54 PM
GA:

Jim Quinn
48.04%
5,799
48.04%
REP
Carden H. Summers
51.96%
6,273
51.96%

Votes Cast
12,072


AR-22: 22 †    McGrew 69% Rep.    Bowers 31% Lib.
Maine Amendment:  1 - Reject Repealing Exemptions    Yes 26%    No 74%    

Still awaiting returns from AR-34, CA-28, and ME-128.

RI and MA do not have an election night reporting source and will come at a later date.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 04, 2020, 02:07:05 AM
AR-34: 34 †    Springer 78% Dem.    Talley 22% Ind.    100%

CA-28 is uncalled. Preliminaries: 28 †    Melendez 42% Rep.    Silver 21% Dem.    22%

MAINE:
128 †    O'Connell 58% Dem.    Craig 42% Rep.    100%

Question    Yes    No    Rpt.
1 - Reject Repealing Exemptions    Yes 27%    No 73%    81%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 04, 2020, 09:57:30 AM
We can call a RUNOFF SPOT in CA-28 for Melendez!

Anna Nevenic
(Party Preference: DEM)
   3,926   
2.9%
   Elizabeth Romero
(Party Preference: DEM)
   29,309   
21.7%
   Joy Silver
(Party Preference: DEM)
   27,810   
20.6%

   Melissa Melendez
(Party Preference: REP)
   56,073   
41.5%

   John Schwab
(Party Preference: REP)
   18,132   
13.4%


Italicized candidates are in contention for the second slot as votes continue to be counted.

RI-56: Giraldo (D) wins unopposed
MA Hampden and Hampshire Primary: Veils (D) and Cain (R) unopposed
MA Plymouth and Barnstable Primary: Moran (D) and McMahon (R)
MA 37th Middlesex Primary: Sena (D) and Chastain (R)
MA 3rd Bristol Primary: Doherty (D) and Dooner (R)


MA 32nd Middlesex:



Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kate_Lipper_Garabedian.jpg
   Kate Lipper-Garabedian   (D)    
 
82.8
 
   8,084
   


Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Brandon_Reid.jpg
   Brandon Reid   (R)    
 
17.2
 
   1,680



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 10, 2020, 05:18:36 PM
Tonight we have the elections in MI-34 and NH Merrimack 24. Polls will close by 8 in NH and by 9 in MI.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 10, 2020, 08:16:03 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on March 10, 2020, 08:37:16 PM


That's an R to D flip in a Trump +10 district.

Also going to be a big stinger for the NH GOP. They dug deep to hold on there.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MaxQue on March 10, 2020, 09:51:53 PM


WMUR is reporting 1000-961 as the result.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 10, 2020, 10:39:57 PM
Cynthia Neeley will represent most of the city of Flint in the Michigan House.

She is the wife of Flint Mayor Sheldon Neeley, who held the seat before he won election as mayor of Flint last November. With more than 70 percent of the votes counted, Neeley led her opponent, republican Adam Ford by a margin of 86 to 8 percent.

https://www.michiganradio.org/post/cynthia-neeley-wins-34th-house-seat


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 11, 2020, 05:26:38 AM
These special elections wins, especially in Maine and New Hampshire, show that after a post-2018 slump the Democratic base is again energized and engaged. Let's hope it remains like that till November.  


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Anti Democrat Democrat Club on March 11, 2020, 02:05:34 PM


That's an R to D flip in a Trump +10 district.

Also going to be a big stinger for the NH GOP. They dug deep to hold on there.

The NHGOP running an absolute lunatic didn't help either. Their candidate was a Free Stater who literally called for NH to secede from the US.

Also comparing LGBT rights to pedophilia and democracy to gang rape. I've seen some nutjob candidates and representatives, and Axelman is one of the craziest.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 16, 2020, 02:40:04 PM
Elizabeth Romero (D) gets the second spot in the California Senate 28 Special Jungle. R v D runoff.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 17, 2020, 11:43:13 AM
Three Specials in Pennsylvania Tonight. Polls close at 8 ET. Results will be on the PA-SOS website after polls close.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ctherainbow on March 17, 2020, 10:14:44 PM


Where are they getting this info from?  Neither the state nor Bucks County have released results yet.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on March 17, 2020, 10:18:35 PM


Where are they getting this info from?  Neither the state nor Bucks County have released results yet.

I doubt it, but let’s hope she gets Young Kim’d

nvm bucks county reported she did win


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ctherainbow on March 17, 2020, 10:21:27 PM

Helen Tai'd would be an even more locally applicable analogy.    :p


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ctherainbow on March 17, 2020, 10:24:36 PM
Partial results just posted on BucksCo website:

25/27 precincts

Hayes(D) - 3,343(46.50%)
Tomlinson(R) - 3,826(53.21%)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 17, 2020, 11:25:57 PM

HAYES, HAROLD M
(DEM)
46.63%
    Votes: 3,343
TOMLINSON, KATHLEEN C
(REP)
53.37%
    Votes: 3,826



PRAH, ROBERT JR
(DEM)
40.57%
    Votes: 3,293
DAVANZO, ERIC M
(REP)
52.58%
    Votes: 4,267

BACH, KENNETH J
(LIB)
6.85%
    Votes: 556



HEASLEY, PHIL
(DEM)
24.63%
    Votes: 1,288
BONNER, TIMOTHY R
(REP)
75.37%
    Votes: 3,941



A stellar night for the GOP!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on March 18, 2020, 06:06:54 AM
Disappointing results in PA, though that one district almost always goes GOP downballot.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on March 18, 2020, 06:16:53 AM
Disappointing results in PA, though that one district almost always goes GOP downballot.

Looking at the big drops in Democratic turnout in places like Illinois compared to the primaries last week, it seems to me that Democrats are probably much more risk-averse to turning out during this whole pandemic whereas Republican primary turnout from last week to this week wasn’t much affected


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ctherainbow on March 18, 2020, 07:23:33 PM
Disappointing results in PA, though that one district almost always goes GOP downballot.

Yeah, District 8 is pretty safely R, and Democrats did not do as well there as they did in 2018.

However, in both of the competitive districts, Democrats improved upon their 2018 margins, in District 18 by 1.1%, and in District 58 by 2.3%.  Both of the counties these districts are located in are on COVID lockdown, and lower turnout elections generally favor the GOP.  However, the COVID risk is disproportionate for the elderly, who are also generally reliable GOP voters, so that probably erased any GOP special election advantage in this low-turnout election.  Overall, while still disappointing that none of the seats flipped, this is still an improvement for Dems.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 18, 2020, 07:25:42 PM
Margin grows in the 18th with final returns in:

HAYES, HAROLD M
(DEM)
44.58%
    Votes: 3,631
TOMLINSON, KATHLEEN C
(REP)
55.42%
    Votes: 4,514


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Brittain33 on March 18, 2020, 07:52:26 PM
I thought the name looked familiar... her father is a state senator from Bucks County. That might have helped her a bit.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on March 18, 2020, 08:01:46 PM
Hopefully Presidential turnout will send her back to the funeral home... she operates one.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 24, 2020, 09:52:45 PM
The Massachusetts Elections Previously scheduled for March 31 will now be split between May 19 and June 2. Thank the Virus.

An Election scheduled for April in Mississippi has been rescheduled for June 23.

Special Elections previously planned in New York have been cancelled and the seats will remain vacant for the balance of the term.

Next Election is May 12th in CA Senate 28.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Coastal Elitist on May 08, 2020, 04:49:15 PM
California senate district 28 is having a special election on the same day as CA-25. Republicans are looking good on current returns: https://tableau.the-pdi.com/t/CampaignTools/views/28thSDSpecialAVTracker/2020SpecialElectionTrackerVB?:iid=2&:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&:embed=y
45% Republican
37% Democrat
18% NPP/Oth


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on May 12, 2020, 06:48:32 PM
Tonight is CA-SEN 28. Polls close at 11 ET. Not seeing a results page yet.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on May 12, 2020, 09:05:03 PM
Results Page: https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/special/state-senate/district/28


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on May 12, 2020, 09:59:01 PM
polls are closing


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on May 12, 2020, 10:53:46 PM
Elizabeth Romero
(Party Preference: DEM)
    75,248
44.1%
    Melissa Melendez
(Party Preference: REP)
    95,378
55.9%


A disappointing loss for the Dems


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort on May 12, 2020, 11:37:31 PM
Elizabeth Romero
(Party Preference: DEM)
    75,248
44.1%
    Melissa Melendez
(Party Preference: REP)
    95,378
55.9%


A disappointing loss for the Dems

What? Riverside County has been represented by Republicans in the State Senate for decades.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ON Progressive on May 13, 2020, 08:19:32 AM
Elizabeth Romero
(Party Preference: DEM)
    75,248
44.1%
    Melissa Melendez
(Party Preference: REP)
    95,378
55.9%


A disappointing loss for the Dems

Literally a seat that voted for Trump and Cox, but OK.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on May 18, 2020, 05:05:16 PM
Two Massachusetts special senate elections tomorrow, both formerly held by Republicans. In the 2nd Hampshire and Hampden district, State Rep. John Velis (D) faces off against Navy Reservist John Cain (R). Velis should be favored to flip this 52-41 Clinton seat, and he even represents a part of the district that voted for Trump, Westfield, in the state House.

In the Plymouth and Barnstable district, Falmouth selectwoman Susan Moran (D) faces off against 2018 AG nominee Jay McMahon (R) in this 49-44 Clinton seat. Democrats have struggled to turn out in the COVID era specials so far, so this should be good to watch.

If Democrats flip both of these seats, there will only be 4 Republicans remaining in the 40-member state senate. Of the three senate districts Donald Trump won in the state, Republicans only hold one of them. That should tell you how pathetic the state of the Massachusetts GOP is in, Charlie Baker aside.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on May 19, 2020, 07:30:50 PM
Velis up in the first returns.

https://www.wwlp.com/election-results/


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on May 19, 2020, 07:40:38 PM
Velis is up 70-30 with 25% in. Looks like we can call it a D flip.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on May 19, 2020, 07:42:49 PM
Velis is up 70-30 with 25% in. Looks like we can call it a D flip.
Probably a muted incumbency bump? Assuming this holds, that would be an absolutely massive swing to democrats.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on May 19, 2020, 07:44:21 PM
Velis is up 70-30 with 25% in. Looks like we can call it a D flip.
Probably a muted incumbency bump? Assuming this holds, that would be an absolutely massive swing to democrats.

He represents the more Republican part of the district that Trump won, so it makes sense that he would overperform the total baseline when you include the bluer parts of the seat, like Holyoke


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on May 19, 2020, 07:53:08 PM
Apparently Velis got 71% in Westfield--a town Trump won by 4%. This is going to be an insane blowout when the blue part of the district comes in.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ON Progressive on May 19, 2020, 08:02:45 PM
Apparently Velis got 71% in Westfield--a town Trump won by 4%. This is going to be an insane blowout when the blue part of the district comes in.

Where did you find that?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on May 19, 2020, 08:06:23 PM
Apparently Velis got 71% in Westfield--a town Trump won by 4%. This is going to be an insane blowout when the blue part of the district comes in.

Where did you find that?

From Daily Kos, but I can't access the tweet in question at work.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ON Progressive on May 19, 2020, 08:07:39 PM
https://www.capecodtimes.com/news/20200519/polls-close-in-special-plymouth--barnstable-district-election

Here's the page for the Plymouth-Barnstable election.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on May 19, 2020, 08:10:49 PM
https://www.capecodtimes.com/news/20200519/polls-close-in-special-plymouth--barnstable-district-election

Here's the page for the Plymouth-Barnstable election.
So far, the results are tracking very very closely to 2016... McMahon leading by less than a point with the two Trump towns in.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on May 19, 2020, 08:11:10 PM
https://www.capecodtimes.com/news/20200519/polls-close-in-special-plymouth--barnstable-district-election

Here's the page for the Plymouth-Barnstable election.

Looks like a pickup in this seat too if Moran is carrying Sandwich (a narrow Romney-Clinton town)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ON Progressive on May 19, 2020, 08:20:16 PM
https://www.capecodtimes.com/news/20200519/polls-close-in-special-plymouth--barnstable-district-election

Here's the page for the Plymouth-Barnstable election.

Looks like a pickup in this seat too if Moran is carrying Sandwich (a narrow Romney-Clinton town)

Eh, the result in Pembroke isn't so great.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on May 19, 2020, 08:26:16 PM
Velis wins by 29% in the complete results.

I think we can say Plymouth-Barnstable is done too. McMahon only won Bourne (his hometown) by 1476 to 1406. Trump won this town. That's not enough to overcome the baseline.

With that, the Massachusetts GOP is left with four seats in the state senate, tied for their record low point ever.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on May 19, 2020, 08:27:26 PM
New update.

Moran leads 60.3%-39.7%

This looks over.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on May 19, 2020, 08:36:10 PM
The Massachusetts GOP begins and ends with Charlie Baker


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on May 19, 2020, 08:43:29 PM
The Massachusetts GOP begins and ends with Charlie Baker

They’re quickly approaching Hawaii GOP levels of irrelevance.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ON Progressive on May 19, 2020, 08:47:11 PM
The Plymouth town clerk emailed me a spreadsheet showing there are 4722 votes in that town.

Given that McMahon is down 2124 votes, he would need to win 72.5% of the vote in Plymouth.

He's done.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on May 19, 2020, 09:05:27 PM
The state of the Massachusetts GOP is even more embarrassing when you see that Democrats have 2 of 3 Trump state senate seats, including the reddest one in the state that went for Trump 51-41


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: lfromnj on May 19, 2020, 09:09:40 PM
The state of the Massachusetts GOP is even more embarrassing when you see that Democrats have 2 of 3 Trump state senate seats, including the reddest one in the state that went for Trump 51-41

Rhode islands a bigger meme because there actually are  a significant amount ofTrump seats there.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on May 19, 2020, 09:12:57 PM
The state of the Massachusetts GOP is even more embarrassing when you see that Democrats have 2 of 3 Trump state senate seats, including the reddest one in the state that went for Trump 51-41

Rhode islands a bigger meme because there actually are  a significant amount ofTrump seats there.

That actually makes a lot of sense. Rhode Island favors Republicans geographically in that Democrats are clustered in the Providence and Newport, so in theory they should hold a lot more seats in the legislature than they do.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: lfromnj on May 19, 2020, 09:14:56 PM
The state of the Massachusetts GOP is even more embarrassing when you see that Democrats have 2 of 3 Trump state senate seats, including the reddest one in the state that went for Trump 51-41

Rhode islands a bigger meme because there actually are  a significant amount ofTrump seats there.

That actually makes a lot of sense. Rhode Island favors Republicans geographically in that Democrats are clustered in the Providence and Newport, so in theory they should hold a lot more seats in the legislature than they do.

Yeah which is just pathetic because there is a reason to try in Rhode Island in that you could probably get atleast 1/3 of the legislature in some years. The funniest meme about the RI GOP is that during the legalization of gay marriage all the no votes came from Democrats


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Brittain33 on May 20, 2020, 07:27:48 AM
1 of the 4 is scandal-plagued Dean Tran who flipped his seat to Republicans and could easily lose.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on May 20, 2020, 08:22:06 AM
1 of the 4 is scandal-plagued Dean Tran who flipped his seat to Republicans and could easily lose.

The other? Conservative Fattman from conservative district and relatively moderate Tarr and O'Connor from Democratic-leaning districts?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on May 20, 2020, 02:21:11 PM
New update.

Moran leads 60.3%-39.7%

This looks over.

A disappointing defeat in a seat Republicans no doubt hoped they would be able to hold.  A grim harbinger of worsening Republican prospects for November.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on May 20, 2020, 02:39:44 PM
1 of the 4 is scandal-plagued Dean Tran who flipped his seat to Republicans and could easily lose.

The other? Conservative Fattman from conservative district and relatively moderate Tarr and O'Connor from Democratic-leaning districts?

Tarr hasn’t been challenged in a long time, but his district is very blue. The only one of the remaining four that would be safe if Democrats tried is Fattman, but his district isn’t super conservative—Trump only won it by 1%. O’Connor and Tran are very vulnerable this year.

Republicans have kept fumbling the ball on Democrat Anne Gobi’s seat for the past decade. They couldn’t even win it as an open seat in 2014 of all years lol. This is the 51-41 Trump seat based mostly in Worcester


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on May 20, 2020, 02:52:54 PM
I still think the MA Dems are more incompetent than the anything. Seriously, why else would they let Baker win in a 33.48 point rout in a 27.20 point Clinton state and in a heavily Democratic year.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on May 20, 2020, 03:02:01 PM
I still think the MA Dems are more incompetent than the MA Reps. Seriously, why else would they let Baker win in a 33.48 point rout in a 27.20 point Clinton state and in a heavily Democratic year.

Because he wouldn't have lost even if they had seriously contested it.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Brittain33 on May 20, 2020, 06:15:25 PM
I still think the MA Dems are more incompetent than the anything. Seriously, why else would they let Baker win in a 33.48 point rout in a 27.20 point Clinton state and in a heavily Democratic year.

Beyond their control.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on May 20, 2020, 06:27:23 PM
I still think the MA Dems are more incompetent than the MA Reps. Seriously, why else would they let Baker win in a 33.48 point rout in a 27.20 point Clinton state and in a heavily Democratic year.

Because he wouldn't have lost even if they had seriously contested it.

And the Massachusetts GOP actually lost seats in the legislature as Charlie Baker was winning by 33% speaks for itself.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on May 21, 2020, 12:24:01 AM
I still think the MA Dems are more incompetent than the anything. Seriously, why else would they let Baker win in a 33.48 point rout in a 27.20 point Clinton state and in a heavily Democratic year.

Beyond their control.

+1


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on May 21, 2020, 12:30:39 AM
1 of the 4 is scandal-plagued Dean Tran who flipped his seat to Republicans and could easily lose.

The other? Conservative Fattman from conservative district and relatively moderate Tarr and O'Connor from Democratic-leaning districts?

Tarr hasn’t been challenged in a long time, but his district is very blue. The only one of the remaining four that would be safe if Democrats tried is Fattman, but his district isn’t super conservative—Trump only won it by 1%. O’Connor and Tran are very vulnerable this year.

Republicans have kept fumbling the ball on Democrat Anne Gobi’s seat for the past decade. They couldn’t even win it as an open seat in 2014 of all years lol. This is the 51-41 Trump seat based mostly in Worcester

Thanks! I meant "relatively conservative")))


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on May 22, 2020, 11:38:40 PM
OR state senate 10 Dem Primary (Special November 3):

Deb Patterson (D) 90.8 12,949
Charles Womble (D) 9.2 1,309
Other/Write-in votes 0.8 109



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on June 03, 2020, 02:01:27 AM


We bagged another one


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 04, 2020, 03:14:14 PM
37th Middlesex:

Danillo Sena (D)    74.2    4,226
Catherine Clark (R)    25.8    1,471



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 13, 2020, 10:22:23 PM
June 9th Results:

GA Senate 4:



Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/BillyHickman_Georgia.png
   Billy Hickman (R)    
 
33.3
 
   11,792
    

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
   Scott Bohlke (R)    
 
32.0
 
   11,322

   

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
   Stephen Sammons (Independent)    
 
16.4
 
   5,791
   

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KathyPalmer.jpeg
   Kathy Palmer (R)    
 
15.5
 
   5,480
   

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
   Neil Singleton (R)    
 
2.9
 
   1,025

Runoff: August 11th



SC-115 Primaries:



Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Carol_Tempel.jpg
   Carol Tempel      
 
37.7
 
   1,729
   

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Wetmore.jpg
   Spencer Wetmore      
 
34.1
 
   1,567
   


Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/EileenDougherty.jpg
   Eileen Dougherty      
 
28.2
 
   1,296

Ballotpedia Logo
   


Republican primary election

   Candidate
   
%
   Votes
   

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
   Josh Stokes      
 
52.2
 
   2,209
   


Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
   Kathleen Wilson      
 
47.8
 
   2,020


Democratic Runoff: June 23
General: August 11


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LimoLiberal on June 23, 2020, 12:21:27 PM
There's a special election today for Kentucky Senate District 26 in Jefferson and Oldham Counties. It's a Trump +12 and Beshear +10 district in the northern Louisville suburbs. Doctor Karen Berg (D) is facing Businessman Bill Ferko (R). Berg ran for this seat in 2018 but lost 52-46 to incumbent Ernie Harris (R) who stepped down this April.

The highly contested U.S. Senate primary on the Democratic side as well as general D enthusiasm (especially in the suburbs) might give Berg a boost. She has the Facebook enthusiasm with nearly 2x as many likes as Ferko. I'd rate this race a tossup.

Polls close at 6 PM.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mr.Phips on June 23, 2020, 12:34:54 PM
There's a special election today for Kentucky Senate District 26 in Jefferson and Oldham Counties. It's a Trump +12 and Beshear +10 district in the northern Louisville suburbs. Doctor Karen Berg (D) is facing Businessman Bill Ferko (R). Berg ran for this seat in 2018 but lost 52-46 to incumbent Ernie Harris (R) who stepped down this April.

The highly contested U.S. Senate primary on the Democratic side as well as general D enthusiasm (especially in the suburbs) might give Berg a boost. She has the Facebook enthusiasm with nearly 2x as many likes as Ferko. I'd rate this race a tossup.

Polls close at 6 PM.

Berg needs to keep Oldham county within 10 to win.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LimoLiberal on June 23, 2020, 06:43:52 PM
Ferko (R) leading 79-21 in the Oldham county election day vote. Could portend a blowout win, but I bet the election day electorate was significantly more conservative than absentee ballots.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LimoLiberal on June 23, 2020, 10:46:34 PM
Ferko (R) leading 79-21 in the Oldham county election day vote. Could portend a blowout win, but I bet the election day electorate was significantly more conservative than absentee ballots.

Ok, I got my hands on the actual numbers from Oldham county.

Democrat – Karen Berg has 1,124 votes (21%)

Republican – Bill Ferko has 4,118 votes (79%)

This is only the Oldham county in-person early and election day vote. We're missing the Jefferson county election day, in-person, and mail-in as well as the Oldham county mail-in. But still, things look pretty good for Ferko, no? Trump only won Oldham county 62-31!

No. No. No.

According to this article (https://www.oldhamera.com/content/county-clerk-releases-partial-numbers-primary-election), there were 20,000 mail-in ballots requested in Oldham county. Nearly 4x the number of ballots counted so far. That doesn't even include the tens of thousands of ballots from Jefferson county yet to be counted.

I've already seen tweets touting how well Ferko is doing and it makes me want to scream. Not because Ferko can't win, because he certainly can and he's arguably the favorite. But when you have 5,000 ballots counted in a race with at least 30,000 more ballots to count it is incredibly irresponsible to act like those ballots are representative. Especially when there's an emerging divide between Democrats and Republicans on the use of mail-ins.

In conclusion, we're f***ed in November if mail-in ballot use continues at this rate. People who should know something about how unrepresentative results from different voting methods can be are getting caught up in the excitement of Election Night.

Anyways, I have no idea who will win this race. Talk to me in a week!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Bidenworth2020 on June 24, 2020, 12:10:52 AM
Ferko (R) leading 79-21 in the Oldham county election day vote. Could portend a blowout win, but I bet the election day electorate was significantly more conservative than absentee ballots.

Ok, I got my hands on the actual numbers from Oldham county.

Democrat – Karen Berg has 1,124 votes (21%)

Republican – Bill Ferko has 4,118 votes (79%)

This is only the Oldham county in-person early and election day vote. We're missing the Jefferson county election day, in-person, and mail-in as well as the Oldham county mail-in. But still, things look pretty good for Ferko, no? Trump only won Oldham county 62-31!

No. No. No.

According to this article (https://www.oldhamera.com/content/county-clerk-releases-partial-numbers-primary-election), there were 20,000 mail-in ballots requested in Oldham county. Nearly 4x the number of ballots counted so far. That doesn't even include the tens of thousands of ballots from Jefferson county yet to be counted.

I've already seen tweets touting how well Ferko is doing and it makes me want to scream. Not because Ferko can't win, because he certainly can and he's arguably the favorite. But when you have 5,000 ballots counted in a race with at least 30,000 more ballots to count it is incredibly irresponsible to act like those ballots are representative. Especially when there's an emerging divide between Democrats and Republicans on the use of mail-ins.

In conclusion, we're f***ed in November if mail-in ballot use continues at this rate. People who should know something about how unrepresentative results from different voting methods can be are getting caught up in the excitement of Election Night.

Anyways, I have no idea who will win this race. Talk to me in a week!
Really great to see you putting out substantive analyses.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 24, 2020, 02:08:13 PM
Special general election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 88
Robin Robinson defeated Michael Walker and Jason Dykes in the special general election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 88 on June 23, 2020.

Candidate   %   Votes
✔   
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Robin Robinson (Nonpartisan)    65.1    1,471
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Michael Walker (Nonpartisan)    33.0    745
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Jason Dykes (Nonpartisan)    1.9    43



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LimoLiberal on June 25, 2020, 09:59:34 AM
The in-person vote just dropped from Jefferson county in KY SD-26.

Berg (D) gained 460, Ferko (R) gained 484.

Ferko now leads 4602-1584, or 75% to 25%.

The vast majority of votes still uncounted with mail-ins not to be opened until 6/30.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mr.Phips on June 25, 2020, 10:08:57 AM
The in-person vote just dropped from Jefferson county in KY SD-26.

Berg (D) gained 460, Ferko (R) gained 484.

Ferko now leads 4602-1584, or 75% to 25%.

The vast majority of votes still uncounted with mail-ins not to be opened until 6/30.

The in person vote in Jefferson was that small?  The Jefferson portion of the district is larger than Oldham.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LimoLiberal on June 25, 2020, 10:22:49 AM
The in-person vote just dropped from Jefferson county in KY SD-26.

Berg (D) gained 460, Ferko (R) gained 484.

Ferko now leads 4602-1584, or 75% to 25%.

The vast majority of votes still uncounted with mail-ins not to be opened until 6/30.

The in person vote in Jefferson was that small?  The Jefferson portion of the district is larger than Oldham.

I believe the Oldham number contains both election day and in-person early voting. My guess is the Jefferson number is just the election day.



With these numbers there are at least 16,000 mail-in ballots from Jefferson in SD-26 and likely more.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mr.Phips on June 25, 2020, 10:48:33 AM
The in-person vote just dropped from Jefferson county in KY SD-26.

Berg (D) gained 460, Ferko (R) gained 484.

Ferko now leads 4602-1584, or 75% to 25%.

The vast majority of votes still uncounted with mail-ins not to be opened until 6/30.

The in person vote in Jefferson was that small?  The Jefferson portion of the district is larger than Oldham.

I believe the Oldham number contains both election day and in-person early voting. My guess is the Jefferson number is just the election day.



With these numbers there are at least 16,000 mail-in ballots from Jefferson in SD-26 and likely more.

Berg would need to get at least in the high 50s there to pull off a win.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LimoLiberal on June 30, 2020, 09:26:26 AM
BREAKING: Oldham County mail-ins have been counted

()

According to the Facebook post, the final results in the county were as following.

Berg (D) - 9738 (46.7%)
Ferko (R) - 11101 (53.2%)

Adding the election day votes from Jefferson County already counted, the margin becomes

Berg (D) - 10198 (46.8%)
Ferko (R) - 11585 (53.2%)

Trump won the Oldham County part of this district 62-31 while winning districtwide by 12 points. Berg narrowed the margin to just 53-47, outperforming the 2016 margin by 25 points. Clinton actually won the Jefferson County portion of the district 50-44. The only logical conclusion is that Berg is on-track to win once the thousands of Jefferson mail-ins come in, and possibly by a substantial margin.




Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LimoLiberal on June 30, 2020, 09:43:23 AM
BREAKING: BERG WINS WITH JEFFERSON MAIL-INS



Final results:

Berg (D) - 24771 (57%)
Ferko (R) - 18705 (43%)

That concludes your LimoLiberal election night week coverage. :)

Democrats have increased their Kentucky State Senate caucus to 10 of 38.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ON Progressive on June 30, 2020, 09:55:09 AM
Wow, that’s a quite impressive win.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 30, 2020, 01:02:22 PM
CHARLESTON, S.C. (WCBD) – On Friday, Spencer Wetmore was declared the official winner of the SC House 115 Democratic Primary Runoff and the Democratic Special Election Primary runoff, following a recount due to the close race.

Wetmore beat Carol Tempel 1424 to 1416 in the Primary runoff, and 1438 to 1433 in the Special Election runoff to secure the Democratic nomination.

---------

Today there is one special - Oklahoma state senate 28


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LimoLiberal on June 30, 2020, 03:53:14 PM
CHARLESTON, S.C. (WCBD) – On Friday, Spencer Wetmore was declared the official winner of the SC House 115 Democratic Primary Runoff and the Democratic Special Election Primary runoff, following a recount due to the close race.

Wetmore beat Carol Tempel 1424 to 1416 in the Primary runoff, and 1438 to 1433 in the Special Election runoff to secure the Democratic nomination.

---------

Today there is one special - Oklahoma state senate 28

SC HD-115 numbers:

2016 prez: Trump 48-45
2018 HD: McCoy (R-inc) 51-49

Putting this suburban Charleston district at Lean D considering trends and the national environment. This district probably voted for Joe Cunningham by double digits.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on July 01, 2020, 12:34:13 PM
BREAKING: BERG WINS WITH JEFFERSON MAIL-INS



Final results:

Berg (D) - 24771 (57%)
Ferko (R) - 18705 (43%)

That concludes your LimoLiberal election night week coverage. :)

Democrats have increased their Kentucky State Senate caucus to 10 of 38.

That’s bigger than Beshear’s margin here, correct?

Also, this dramatic change in result is a preview of the chaos that’s going to ensue in November when Trump has a huge lead in all the battlegrounds due to only Election Day votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on July 02, 2020, 11:06:30 PM

Special Republican primary for Oklahoma State Senate District 28

Zack Taylor defeated Mike Haines and Christian Ford in the special Republican primary for Oklahoma State Senate District 28 on June 30, 2020.

   Candidate
   
%
   Votes
✔    

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
   Zack Taylor      
 
59.3
 
   5,679
   

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MikeHaines.jpg
   Mike Haines      
 
33.4
 
   3,197
   

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
   Christian Ford      
 
7.3
 
   698


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on July 11, 2020, 09:42:18 PM
From LA tonight:

State House District 54 Special
Updated 10:39 PM ET
100% reporting
Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.   
Joseph Orgeron
Rep.
4,040   54.6%   
James Cantrelle
Rep.
1,450   19.6   
Donny Lerille
Rep.
808   10.9   
Kevin Duet
Rep.
691   9.3   
Phil Gilligan
Rep.
242   3.3   
Dave Carskadon
Rep.
175   2.4


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on July 14, 2020, 06:03:46 PM
Results for tonight's special in TX: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/14/us/elections/results-texas-primary-runoff-elections.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive&region=Navigation

Scroll down to special Senate General


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on July 14, 2020, 10:30:58 PM
14†   Eckhardt 51% Dem.   Rodriguez 34% Dem.   23%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on July 15, 2020, 04:31:06 PM
https://www.kvue.com/article/news/politics/vote-texas/texas-primary-runoff-election-results-2020-state-senate-district-14/269-a81964d8-b0c1-4807-b0f7-b3c3b65af34d

TX-14 Special Senate going a runoff.

Next specials are in August:

Aug. 4 - Primaries in AL-49, MI-4, WA-38
Aug. 11 - GA-4 Runoff (R v R), SC-115
Aug. 18 - Primaries in AK-M, FL-20
TBD - TX-14 Runoff (D v D)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 08, 2020, 09:00:16 PM
Republican primary election
Special Republican primary for Alabama House of Representatives District 49
The following candidates ran in the special Republican primary for Alabama House of Representatives District 49 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate   %   Votes
✔   
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Russell Bedsole    34.8    919
✔   
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Mimi Penhale    31.4    829

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Chuck Martin    24.3    640
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Donna_Strong.jpg

Donna Dorough Strong    6.7    177
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Jackson McNeely    2.2    57
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

James Dean    0.6    17


Runoff scheduled for September 1




Special Democratic primary for Michigan House of Representatives District 4
The following candidates ran in the special Democratic primary for Michigan House of Representatives District 4 on August 4, 2020.

Scroll for more

Candidate   %   Votes
✔   
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/AbrahamAiyash.jpg

Abraham Aiyash    37.9    5,208

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Michele_Oberholtzer.png

Michele Oberholtzer    14.7    2,023
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Tawanna_Simpson.jpg

Tawanna Simpson    12.6    1,729
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/TonyaPhillips.jpg

Tonya Myers Phillips    10.5    1,446
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/dholmes.jpg

Delorean Holmes    7.8    1,071
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Shahab Ahmed    6.2    853
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Christopher Collins    5.4    742
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/AbrahamShaw2.jpg

Abraham Shaw    1.9    266
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Sigmunt Szczepkowski Jr.    1.2    165
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Anthony Ali    1.1    152
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Gregory Reyner    0.8    104

Special primary for Washington State Senate District 38
Incumbent June Robinson, Kelly Fox, and Bernard Moody are running in the special primary for Washington State Senate District 38 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate   %   Votes
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/June_Robinson.jpeg

June Robinson (D)    46.2    10,019
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png


Kelly Fox (D)    13.8    2,997
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Bernard Moody (R)    39.9    8,639
    Other/Write-in votes    0.1    21


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 11, 2020, 07:14:10 PM
Dems flip a coastal Charleston seat in SC.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TrendsareUsuallyReal on August 11, 2020, 07:23:01 PM
Dems flip a coastal Charleston seat in SC.



It's not even close either. One of my best friends is from Folly Beach too, small world.

Pretty good sign for Cunningham, as this was a Trump +3 seat entirely within SC-01.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 11, 2020, 09:18:13 PM
Calling the GA-4 Runoff (R v R) for Hickman


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on September 01, 2020, 04:05:13 PM
Special Republican primary for Alaska State Senate District M
Incumbent Josh Revak defeated Ray Metcalfe and Harold Borbridge in the special Republican primary for Alaska State Senate District M on August 18, 2020.

Candidate   %   Votes
✔   
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/DSC00226-min.JPG

Josh Revak    64.6    1,653
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Ray_Metcalfe.jpg

Ray Metcalfe    24.9    636
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Harold Borbridge    10.5    268
Ballotpedia Logo

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. Source 1 Source 2

Total votes: 2,557
Alaska Democratic and Independence parties primary election
Special Alaska Democratic and Independence parties primary for Alaska State Senate District M
Anita Thorne defeated Nicholas Willie in the special Alaska Democratic and Independence parties primary for Alaska State Senate District M on August 18, 2020.

Candidate   %   Votes
✔   
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Anita Thorne    83.2    1,090
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Nicholas Willie    16.8    220


Democratic primary election
The Democratic primary election was canceled. Kathy Lewis advanced from the special Democratic primary for Florida State Senate District 20.

Republican primary election
The Republican primary election was canceled. Daniel Burgess advanced from the special Republican primary for Florida State Senate District 20.

Special Republican primary for South Carolina House of Representatives District 107
Case Brittain defeated Mark McBride in the special Republican primary for South Carolina House of Representatives District 107 on August 18, 2020.

Candidate   %   Votes
✔   
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Case Brittain    70.4    1,980
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Mark McBride    29.6    832


FYI: TX-10 result: https://austonia.com/politics/eckhardt?xrs=RebelMouse_fb&ts=1595865112&fbclid=IwAR2KxDbow5RYlFdYEMVO6lZLebB7Zp1l_IfLBxYMV-JYgyOoXoJDFNpNxYc


next specials:

9/22: MS Senate 15, 39; MS House 37, 66
9/29: TX Sen 30
10/6: AL House 33 Primary - Canceled due to uncontested races




Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on September 23, 2020, 01:47:52 PM
What we have so far:

Special general election for Mississippi State Senate District 15
Bart Williams and Joyce Meek Yates advanced to a runoff. They defeated Bricklee Miller and Levon Murphy Jr. in the special general election for Mississippi State Senate District 15 on September 22, 2020.

Candidate   %   Votes
✔   
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Bart Williams (Nonpartisan)    33.6    2,942
✔   
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Joyce Meek Yates (Nonpartisan)    27.9    2,442
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Bricklee Miller (Nonpartisan)    24.6    2,154
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Levon Murphy Jr. (Nonpartisan)    13.9    1,214
Ballotpedia Logo

There were no incumbents in this race. Source

Total votes: 8,752

Special general election for Mississippi State Senate District 39

Scroll for more

Candidate
✔   
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Jason Barrett (Nonpartisan)
✔   
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Bill Sones (Nonpartisan)
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   Beth Brown (Nonpartisan)
   

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   Mike Campbell (Nonpartisan)
   

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   Ben Johnson (Nonpartisan)
   

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/CindyBryan.jpeg
   Cindy Bryan (Nonpartisan)
   

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   Josh Davis (Nonpartisan)
   

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   Michael Smith (Nonpartisan)
   

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   Prentiss Smith (Nonpartisan)

Ballotpedia Logo

There were no incumbents in this race.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on September 23, 2020, 07:15:53 PM

Special general election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 37

David Chism and Lynn Wright advanced to a runoff. They defeated Vicky Rose in the special general election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 37 on September 22, 2020.

   Candidate
✔    

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/DavidChism.jpg
   David Chism (Nonpartisan)
✔    

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   Lynn Wright (Nonpartisan)
   


Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/vicky_rose.jpg
   Vicky Rose (Nonpartisan)


Special general election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 66

   Candidate
✔    

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   Bob Lee Jr. (Nonpartisan)
✔    

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   De'Keither Stamps (Nonpartisan)

   

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   Kathryn Perry (Nonpartisan)
   

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Aug132020411PM_80182230_20170418_LinkedIn9328.jpg
   Fabian Nelson (Nonpartisan)
   

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   Calvin Williams (Nonpartisan)
   

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   Gregory Divinity (Nonpartisan)


All 4 runoffs will take place on October 13th.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on September 23, 2020, 08:34:16 PM
Seems kind of pointless having a runoff that close to the general election.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on September 23, 2020, 09:07:39 PM
Seems kind of pointless having a runoff that close to the general election.

The Mississippi legislature isn't up for election again until 2023.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on September 23, 2020, 09:19:54 PM
Seems kind of pointless having a runoff that close to the general election.

The Mississippi legislature isn't up for election again until 2023.
They could still hold the special elections in November and not have any extra costs.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on September 29, 2020, 04:49:19 PM
Results page for tonight: https://results.texas-election.com/races

Poll closing at 8 ET


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on September 29, 2020, 10:09:07 PM
Advances to Runoff. Stay tuned for timing.

CRAIG CARTER    REP   3,802   5.53%
ANDY HOPPER    REP   2,471   3.59%
SHELLEY LUTHER    REP   21,814   31.7%
JACOB MINTER    DEM   14,493   21.06%
DREW SPRINGER    REP   21,903   31.83%
CHRIS WATTS    REP   4,324   6.28%
(I) - Incumbent   Race Total   68,807   Spacing


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 14, 2020, 06:00:45 PM

Special general runoff election for Mississippi State Senate District 15

Bart Williams defeated Joyce Meek Yates in the special general runoff election for Mississippi State Senate District 15 on October 13, 2020.

   Candidate
   
%
   Votes
✔    

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
   Bart Williams (Nonpartisan)    
 
53.6
 
   4,067

   

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   Joyce Meek Yates (Nonpartisan)    
 
46.4
 
   3,520


Special general runoff election for Mississippi State Senate District 39

Jason Barrett defeated Bill Sones in the special general runoff election for Mississippi State Senate District 39 on October 13, 2020.

   Candidate
   
%
   Votes
✔    

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/jasonbarrettimage-1.JPG
   Jason Barrett (Nonpartisan)    
 
56.1
 
   4,482

   

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
   Bill Sones (Nonpartisan)    
 
43.9
 
   3,508


Special general runoff election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 37

Lynn Wright defeated David Chism in the special general runoff election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 37 on October 13, 2020.

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
   Lynn Wright (Nonpartisan)    
 
63.8
 
   1,544

   

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/DavidChism.jpg
   David Chism (Nonpartisan)    
 
36.2
 
   875


Special general runoff election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 66

De'Keither Stamps defeated Bob Lee Jr. in the special general runoff election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 66 on October 13, 2020.

   Candidate
   
%
   Votes
✔    

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
   De'Keither Stamps (Nonpartisan)    
 
61.5
 
   909

   

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
   Bob Lee Jr. (Nonpartisan)    
 
38.5
 
   570


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 14, 2020, 06:12:05 PM
Schedule for the rest of the year:


NOVEMBER 3 VOTE-O-RAMA:

AK State Senate District M
AR House District 96 (uncontested)
FL Senate District 20
GA Senate District 39 D Primary
HI Senate District 16
IL Senate District 6 (uncontested)
IL Senate District 11
MI House District 4 (uncontested)
MS House District 87
NJ Senate District 25
NJ Assembly District 25
OK Senate District 28 (uncontested)
OR Senate District 10
SC House District 107
VA House District 29
WA Senate District 38

November 17:

AL Senate District 26 D Primary
AL House District 49

November 24:

MS House District 87 Runoff (if necessary)

December 1:

GA Senate District 39 D Primary Runoff (if necessary)

December 15:

AL Senate District 26 D Primary Runoff (if necessary)

December 19:

TX Senate District 30 Runoff (R v R)



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: jimrtex on November 12, 2020, 08:54:16 AM
Advances to Runoff. Stay tuned for timing.

CRAIG CARTER REP 3,802 5.53%
ANDY HOPPER REP 2,471 3.59%
SHELLEY LUTHER REP 21,814 31.7%
JACOB MINTER DEM 14,493 21.06%
DREW SPRINGER REP 21,903 31.83%
CHRIS WATTS REP 4,324 6.28%
(I) - Incumbent Race Total 68,807 Spacing

Final results:

Luther(R) 22,242
Springer(R) 22,127
Minter(D) 14,825
Watts(R) 4,321
Carter(R) 3,448
Hopper(R) 2,456

December 19 for runoff.

Luther was jailed for opening her hair salon in defiance of government officials, and then refused to apologize.

Springer is a representative for a very rural House district (22 counties) whose most noteworthy bill was pushing through a filing fee for Libertarian Party candidates. He had never had a Libertarian or Green Party opponent (5 elections). He had never had a Democratic opponent until this year, when he received 85% of the vote. He did have Republican opponents in 2012 when he won the primary runoff for an open seat.

It turned out that Luther had never voted in a primary.

The special election was triggered by Senator Pat Fallon becoming the Republican nominee for TX-4 when John Ratcliffe became Director of National Intelligence. Fallon has been elected with 75% of the vote. Texas permits special elections to be triggered in anticipation of a vacancy (Fallon resigned effective with start of the new term - such a resignation has to be unconditional, but Fallon was assured of election). The timing of the special election permitted it to be resolved before the legislature meets next spring.

If Springer is elected to the Senate, a special election would be triggered for his House seat, which likely won't be resolved before the legislature meets.

Turnout will be the key in the special election, the week before Christmas. The district includes parts of Collin and Denton, but they were only about 1/4 of the vote in the special election. Parker and Grayson had more votes than either, and Wichita was not far behind. In the 2018 election (concurrent with the gubernatorial election) about 1/3 of the votes were from Collin and Denton.

The Dallas/Fort Worth news media won't cover a special election on the northern edge of their coverage, while those in in Wichita Falls, Sherman, and Stephenvillle and smaller cities will.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on November 16, 2020, 11:19:58 PM
The special election was triggered by Senator Pat Fallon becoming the Republican nominee for TX-4 when John Ratcliffe became Director of National Intelligence. Fallon has been elected with 75% of the vote. Texas permits special elections to be triggered in anticipation of a vacancy (Fallon resigned effective with start of the new term - such a resignation has to be unconditional, but Fallon was assured of election). The timing of the special election permitted it to be resolved before the legislature meets next spring.
I suggested such a "deferred resignation" or "voluntary commutation" of a term (but a non-rescindable one) when the Augusta City Council was conducting a review of the City Charter in early 2018.  It's quite common to have a City Councilor get elected Mayor in the middle of their Council term or for a regular Board of Education member to get elected Board of Education Chair in the middle of their Board term.  Sometimes they're unopposed in the latter case (I think an open seat for Mayor will almost always result in a contested race).

The City Attorney raised concerns about the idea, like what if someone changed their mind?  (I might have omitted the non-rescindable part, which seemed obvious to me, but I had mentioned how there's a risk one could be out of office if they lost the race they were running for after voluntarily commuting their term to prevent a potential vacancy that would otherwise occur if they won.)  A City councilor beat me to the punch and said, "Make it irrevocable," but the City Attorney still had concerns about it and at the end everyone agreed that there wasn't really a problem with the occasional vacancies that come up.

Then there were three Council vacancies for 2+ months in 2019 when three City Councilors had to resign as they were moving out of the city.  And two of them held seats that were up anyway and Augusta doesn't do the New York/Texas thing about having special elections for a ~2 month term in November so two of those vacancies were from July or August through the end of the year (the third, which interestingly enough they did allow her to remain on the Council until a time (late August) that normally would have been too late to have a special election after with the various petitioning and ballot preparation requirements (I don't know if municipal elections are required to accommodate UOCAVA voters, but they might be), sort of following my "deferred resignation" idea, but somewhat haphazardly, ... that third vacancy was filled in a November election so that guy, a former Councilor who was unopposed, took office at the City Council meeting following the election).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: jimrtex on November 17, 2020, 01:10:28 PM
The special election was triggered by Senator Pat Fallon becoming the Republican nominee for TX-4 when John Ratcliffe became Director of National Intelligence. Fallon has been elected with 75% of the vote. Texas permits special elections to be triggered in anticipation of a vacancy (Fallon resigned effective with start of the new term - such a resignation has to be unconditional, but Fallon was assured of election). The timing of the special election permitted it to be resolved before the legislature meets next spring.
I suggested such a "deferred resignation" or "voluntary commutation" of a term (but a non-rescindable one) when the Augusta City Council was conducting a review of the City Charter in early 2018.  It's quite common to have a City Councilor get elected Mayor in the middle of their Council term or for a regular Board of Education member to get elected Board of Education Chair in the middle of their Board term.  Sometimes they're unopposed in the latter case (I think an open seat for Mayor will almost always result in a contested race).

The City Attorney raised concerns about the idea, like what if someone changed their mind?  (I might have omitted the non-rescindable part, which seemed obvious to me, but I had mentioned how there's a risk one could be out of office if they lost the race they were running for after voluntarily commuting their term to prevent a potential vacancy that would otherwise occur if they won.)  A City councilor beat me to the punch and said, "Make it irrevocable," but the City Attorney still had concerns about it and at the end everyone agreed that there wasn't really a problem with the occasional vacancies that come up.

Then there were three Council vacancies for 2+ months in 2019 when three City Councilors had to resign as they were moving out of the city.  And two of them held seats that were up anyway and Augusta doesn't do the New York/Texas thing about having special elections for a ~2 month term in November so two of those vacancies were from July or August through the end of the year (the third, which interestingly enough they did allow her to remain on the Council until a time (late August) that normally would have been too late to have a special election after with the various petitioning and ballot preparation requirements (I don't know if municipal elections are required to accommodate UOCAVA voters, but they might be), sort of following my "deferred resignation" idea, but somewhat haphazardly, ... that third vacancy was filled in a November election so that guy, a former Councilor who was unopposed, took office at the City Council meeting following the election).
It is not a UOCAVA requirement that non-federal offices conform, but it may be a state or local requirement.

There was a close legislative election in Texas, and during the contest it was discovered all sorts of odd things happen.

A UOCAVA voters had been sent a ballot, and election officials had just crossed through all the non-federal races. The voter had voted straight ticket, and it was argued that he would have voted for the Republican legislative candidate. There is also some distinction based on whether the return was "indefinite". Apparently it was intended to distinguish between expatriates who might never return and therefore had lost any local connection, even though as US Citizens they may retain a federal interest; but other voters may say their return is indefinite because they have not made reservations, or perhaps a job assignment might or might not be extended for another 6 months.

So the law has been changed to include some state races for UOCAVA voters. It has little practical impact because the elections are concurrent with the federal elections. That is not true for local elections.

Other oddities from that election. Texas requires a voter to be absent from the county for the entire early voting period as well as election day. It also requires the application to made from outside the county. Someone was going to be working in Germany, but they sent their application from the Austin airport as they were leaving the country. They had an address in Germany where the ballot could be sent, but had not literally been in Germany when the application was made (it might have been legal to send the application during a layover in DFW, Chicago, or New York.

Another voter had bought a house in a different county and district. They claimed that their dogs had moved (and they drove out every day to feed them) but that they still lived in Austin.

Another person was couch surfing. They claimed that most of friends they had stayed with were in the district.

=====

There was a similar resignation of a senator this last spring. Special elections are ordinarily held on the uniform election day in May or November. The Senator had taking another position so he timed his resignation to happen just before the election. This would mean that his replacement could take office immediately before election. The election was cancelled because of COVID-19 and rescheduled to July, so there was a gap after all.

======

Another Senator was running for Congress and was almost certain to be elected. But she for some reason refused to make an actual resignation. She claimed that the special election was not scheduled concurrent with the general election because she was a Democrat, Hispanic, and female. But is was because she refused to say I resign effective date X. The special election ran into the legislative session.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 18, 2020, 01:26:35 AM
November 3 Results:


Special general election for Alaska State Senate District M

Incumbent Josh Revak defeated Andy Holleman in the special general election for Alaska State Senate District M on November 3, 2020.

Candidate

%
Votes


Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/DSC00226-min.JPG
Josh Revak (R)
 
57.6
 
 10,363



Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/AndyHolleman1.jpeg
Andy Holleman (Independent)

42.1

7,586
  Other/Write-in votes

0.3

55

AR House District 96 (uncontested) - Jill Bryant (R) elected


Special general election for Florida State Senate District 20

Daniel Burgess defeated Kathy Lewis in the special general election for Florida State Senate District 20 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate

%
Votes


Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Danny_Burgess.jpg
Daniel Burgess (R)
 
54.8
 
 141,607



Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kathy_Lewis-1.jpg
Kathy Lewis (D)

45.2

116,685


Special Democratic primary for Georgia State Senate District 39

Candidate

%
Votes


Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Sonya Halpern
 
45.2
 
 31,074



Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/LindaPritchett1.jpg
Linda Pritchett
 
25.4
 
 17,460



Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
JoAnna Potts

15.5

10,654


Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Zan Fort

13.9

9,578

HI Senate District 16 Bennette Misalucha (D) per https://www.civilbeat.org/2020/11/hawaii-legislature-gop-loses-a-house-seat-stays-even-in-the-senate/

IL Senate District 6 (uncontested) - Sara Feigenholtz (D)



Special general election for Illinois State Senate District 11

Incumbent Celina Villanueva defeated Mary Ellen Brown and Richard Mayers in the special general election for Illinois State Senate District 11 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate

%
Votes


Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/CelinaVillanueva1.jpg
Celina Villanueva (D)
 
78.5
 
 38,548



Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MariBrown.jpg
Mary Ellen Brown (Democracy in America)

21.5

10,571


Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Richard Mayers (Independent) (Write-in)


0


MI House District 4 (uncontested) - Abraham Aiyash (D)



Special general election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 87

Joseph Tubb and Matthew Conoly advanced to a runoff. They defeated David Wayne Morgan in the special general election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 87 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate

%
Votes


Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Joseph Tubb (Nonpartisan)
 
45.7
 
 3,677



Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Matthew Conoly (Nonpartisan)
 
37.7
 
 3,035



Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
David Wayne Morgan (Nonpartisan)

16.5

1,331

New Jersey
State Senate - District 25 - Special General

Party Name Votes Vote %
GOP
Bucco, Anthony M. i
 
65,964
 
54.08%


Dem
Mehta, Rupande

56,007

45.92%

State Assembly - District 25 - Special General

Party Name Votes Vote %
GOP
Dunn, Aura i
 
63,354
 
52.53%


Dem
Draeger, Darcy

57,242

47.47%

OK Senate District 28 (uncontested) - Zack Taylor (R)

OR Senate District 10 - TOO CLOSE TO CALL


Special general election for South Carolina House of Representatives District 107

Case Brittain defeated Tony Cahill and Wm Dettmering III in the special general election for South Carolina House of Representatives District 107 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate

%
Votes


Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Case Brittain (R)
 
65.5
 
 15,956



Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Tony Cahill (D)

32.7

7,963


Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Wm Dettmering III (L)

1.8

427
  Other/Write-in votes

0.1

28


Special general election for Virginia House of Delegates District 29

Bill Wiley defeated Irina Khanin in the special general election for Virginia House of Delegates District 29 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate

%
Votes


Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Bill Wiley (R)
 
63.7
 
 28,787



Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Irina_Khanin.jpg
Irina Khanin (D)

36.2

16,365
  Other/Write-in votes

0.1

64


Special general election for Washington State Senate District 38

Incumbent June Robinson defeated Bernard Moody in the special general election for Washington State Senate District 38 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate

%
Votes


Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/robinson.jpg
June Robinson (D)
 
59.7
 
 36,681



Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Bernard Moody (R)

40.2

24,739
  Other/Write-in votes

0.1

72



Overall:

GOP Victories: 8
Dem Victories: 5
Uncalled: 1
Primary Only: 1
Non-Partisan: 1


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 18, 2020, 01:30:41 AM
November 17 Results:


AL STATE REPRESENTATIVE, DISTRICT 49
          
Percent
   
Votes
Cheryl Patton (DEM)    
chart
   
36.74%
   
930
Russell Bedsole (REP)    
chart
   
63.18%
   
1,599

Write-In    
chart
   
0.08%
   
2
 
 
 
2,531


AL STATE SENATOR, DISTRICT 26 (DEM Primary)
          
Percent
   
Votes
Deborah Anthony (DEM)    
chart
   
3.85%
   
202
Linda Douglas Burkette (DEM)    
chart
   
10.32%
   
541
Kirk Hatcher (DEM)    
chart
   
47.93%
   
2,513
John Knight (DEM)    
chart
   
20.81%
   
1,091

Janet May (DEM)    
chart
   
7.63%
   
400
Tashina Morris (DEM)    
chart
   
9.46%
   
496
 
 
 
5,243


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on November 26, 2020, 08:54:41 PM
Special general election for Oregon State Senate District 10

Deb Patterson defeated incumbent Denyc Boles and Taylor Rickey in the special general election for Oregon State Senate District 10 on November 3, 2020.

   Candidate
   
%
   Votes
✔    

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/DebPattersonNEW1.JPG
   Deb Patterson (D / Working Families Party)    
 
48.5
 
   37,725

   

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Denyc-Boles.jpg
   Denyc Boles (R)    
 
47.8
 
   37,149
   

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
   Taylor Rickey (L)    
 
3.6
 
   2,775
        Other/Write-in votes    
 
0.2
 
   145


Special general runoff election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 87

Joseph Tubb defeated Matthew Conoly in the special general runoff election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 87 on November 24, 2020.

   Candidate
   
%
   Votes
✔    

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/JosephTubb.jpg
   Joseph Tubb (Nonpartisan)    
 
58.3
 
   930

   

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MatthewConoly.jpg
   Matthew Conoly (Nonpartisan)    
 
41.7
 
   666



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 01, 2020, 07:18:44 PM
Following GA State Sen 39 tonight: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/107395/web.264614/#/summary

No R filed so whoever wins this wins the seat


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 01, 2020, 09:41:18 PM
61/122 in:

Sonya Halpern (DEM)
2,040
79.66%
 
Linda Pritchett (DEM)
521
20.34%
Votes Cast
2,561


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 01, 2020, 11:13:38 PM
Projected winner at 112/122 in:

Sonya Halpern (DEM)
4,379
80.84%

 
Linda Pritchett (DEM)
1,038
19.16%
Votes Cast
5,417


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 02, 2020, 12:52:39 AM
Final:

Sonya Halpern (DEM)
4,404
80.85%

 
Linda Pritchett (DEM)
1,043
19.15%
Votes Cast
5,447


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LtNOWIS on December 05, 2020, 12:29:34 AM
There's a January 5th special election in Virginia's 90th state house district, in Eastern Norfolk. Safe Democratic seat. Both parties are selecting their candidates in party nominating contests this weekend.

https://www.wtkr.com/news/voters-to-pick-party-nominees-for-open-local-house-of-delegates-seat-this-weekend


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LtNOWIS on December 08, 2020, 08:08:43 PM
Jennifer Carrol Foy also stepped down in Virginia, to focus more on her race for governor. That special will also be January 5.

https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/december/headline-886147-en.html


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Drew on December 19, 2020, 06:27:28 PM
A special election for Wisconsin AD-89 to replace the resigning John Nygren (R) has been scheduled for 4/6/21, the same day as the spring elections in the state.  The primary would be 2/16/21 in alignment with the statewide primary day.  Safe R.

https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/WIGOV/2020/12/18/file_attachments/1630860/EO099-SpecialElection89th.pdf


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 19, 2020, 10:05:40 PM

Special Democratic primary runoff for Alabama State Senate District 26

Kirk Hatcher defeated John Knight in the special Democratic primary runoff for Alabama State Senate District 26 on December 15, 2020.

   Candidate
   
%
   Votes
✔    

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KirkHatcherAL78.jpg
   Kirk Hatcher      
 
74.2
 
   3,961

   

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Knight_j.jpeg
   John Knight      
 
25.8
 
   1,374



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on December 19, 2020, 10:48:43 PM
TX-Sen 30:

STATE SENATOR, DISTRICT 30 - UNEXPIRED TERM
Click for Contest Details
CANDIDATE NAME   PARTY   EARLY VOTES   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
SHELLEY LUTHER   REP   16,344   25,146   43.55%
DREW SPRINGER   REP   21,284   32,599   56.45%
(I) - Incumbent   Race Total   57,745   Spacing


Jan. 2021 schedule:

1/5: VA House 2 & 90
1/19: AL House 33


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: jimrtex on December 31, 2020, 01:07:44 AM
TX-Sen 30:

STATE SENATOR, DISTRICT 30 - UNEXPIRED TERM
Click for Contest Details
CANDIDATE NAME PARTY EARLY VOTES TOTAL VOTES PERCENT
SHELLEY LUTHER REP 16,344 25,146 43.55%
DREW SPRINGER REP 21,284 32,599 56.45%
(I) - Incumbent Race Total 57,745 Spacing

Jan. 2021 schedule:

1/5: VA House 2 & 90
1/19: AL House 33

1/23 TX House 68, to replace Drew Springer who has been elected to the Senate.

If TX-68 were a state it would be the 42nd largest (behind WV, but ahead of MD, HI, MA, VT, NH, NJ, CT, DE, RI). It is extremely R. Springer had not had an opponent since winning the Republican primary in 2012, until this year when S. Lamb (D) ran. Springer won 85% to 15%

With 22 counties, there may be all kinds of county officials who might jump in the special election, unless the resign-to-run law applies.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LimoLiberal on January 05, 2021, 04:48:31 PM
Rainy day in NoVA for two special elections in the House of Delegates. HD-02 in eastern Prince William County and parts of Stafford County (think Quantico), vacated by Jennifer Carroll-Foy who's running for governor, and HD-90 in Norfolk, vacated by Joe Lindsey who was appointed to a judgeship. Democrats should win both but HD-02 could be closer than expected. Polls close at 7 PM.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LtNOWIS on January 05, 2021, 09:52:45 PM
Final unofficial results:

VA-HD-02:

Candi P. M. King (D)
4,386    51.49%


Heather F. Mitchell  (R)
4,123    48.40%



VA-HD-90: 

Angelia Williams Graves (D)
3,668    63.49%


Sylvia Marie Bryant (R)
2,103    36.40%


https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2021%20January%20Special/Site/GeneralAssembly.html


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: crazy jimmie on January 05, 2021, 09:55:46 PM
Final unofficial results:

VA-HD-02:

Candi P. M. King (D)
4,386    51.49%


Heather F. Mitchell  (R)
4,123    48.40%




Does not mean democrats are doomed in the VA elections of 2021.. but all the more reason to not take a risk in the gubernatorial primary!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on January 07, 2021, 06:51:02 PM
Very worrisome, signs of a 2021 bloodbath?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: walleye26 on January 17, 2021, 08:04:33 PM
Hey guys, we have an Alabama special on Tuesday, 1/19. Looks safe R.  https://news.ballotpedia.org/2021/01/11/special-election-to-be-held-jan-19-in-alabama-state-house-district/ (https://news.ballotpedia.org/2021/01/11/special-election-to-be-held-jan-19-in-alabama-state-house-district/)

TX 68th HD is titanium R following that on Jan 23.

IA Sen 41 is on Jan 26th, Miller-Meeks old district, should be Lean/Likely R.

WI has two specials on April 6. I am in SD-13, Fitzgerald’s senate district, and AD-89 up north is also open following Nygren’s resignation. 89 is safe R, but something weird is happening in SD-13. I live here, and there is an independent “Trump Conservative” party member named Spencer Zimmerman who is running. I doubt he gets more than 2% of the vote, but if there is a high Dem turnout in the Dane county portion here, as well as an unexpected protest vote, there is a tiny chance they could win it. For now, Safe R, unless something weird happens.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Drew on January 18, 2021, 12:31:08 PM
WI has two specials on April 6. I am in SD-13, Fitzgerald’s senate district, and AD-89 up north is also open following Nygren’s resignation. 89 is safe R, but something weird is happening in SD-13. I live here, and there is an independent “Trump Conservative” party member named Spencer Zimmerman who is running. I doubt he gets more than 2% of the vote, but if there is a high Dem turnout in the Dane county portion here, as well as an unexpected protest vote, there is a tiny chance they could win it. For now, Safe R, unless something weird happens.

Zimmerman is a perennial candidate who I don’t believe even lives in the district.  He seems to consistently get around 2% of the vote when he runs as a 3rd party/independent.  He doesn’t seem likely to significantly affect the outcome.  Pretty close to Safe R I’d say.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: walleye26 on January 18, 2021, 07:30:13 PM
WI has two specials on April 6. I am in SD-13, Fitzgerald’s senate district, and AD-89 up north is also open following Nygren’s resignation. 89 is safe R, but something weird is happening in SD-13. I live here, and there is an independent “Trump Conservative” party member named Spencer Zimmerman who is running. I doubt he gets more than 2% of the vote, but if there is a high Dem turnout in the Dane county portion here, as well as an unexpected protest vote, there is a tiny chance they could win it. For now, Safe R, unless something weird happens.

Zimmerman is a perennial candidate who I don’t believe even lives in the district.  He seems to consistently get around 2% of the vote when he runs as a 3rd party/independent.  He doesn’t seem likely to significantly affect the outcome.  Pretty close to Safe R I’d say.

Did not know he was a perennial candidate. That probably makes it safe R, but the margins still are going to be worth watching.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on January 19, 2021, 05:34:19 AM
WI has two specials on April 6. I am in SD-13, Fitzgerald’s senate district, and AD-89 up north is also open following Nygren’s resignation. 89 is safe R, but something weird is happening in SD-13. I live here, and there is an independent “Trump Conservative” party member named Spencer Zimmerman who is running. I doubt he gets more than 2% of the vote, but if there is a high Dem turnout in the Dane county portion here, as well as an unexpected protest vote, there is a tiny chance they could win it. For now, Safe R, unless something weird happens.

Zimmerman is a perennial candidate who I don’t believe even lives in the district.  He seems to consistently get around 2% of the vote when he runs as a 3rd party/independent.  He doesn’t seem likely to significantly affect the outcome.  Pretty close to Safe R I’d say.
Might be a bit different now that it seems like the GOP is pretty splintered and some conservatives might be angry at them for letting Biden be innagurated.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LtNOWIS on January 21, 2021, 04:23:43 PM
Nobody posted the Alabama results from Tuesday:

AL-HD-33:

Ben Robbins (R)
2,232    68.19%


Fred Crum (D)
1,037    31.68%

https://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionnight/statewideResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1001110


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: walleye26 on January 24, 2021, 11:03:47 AM
Nobody posted the Alabama results from Tuesday:

AL-HD-33:

Ben Robbins (R)
2,232    68.19%


Fred Crum (D)
1,037    31.68%

https://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionnight/statewideResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1001110
Not actually a bad result for Dems, since in 2018 it was 67-33 for the GOP.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on January 26, 2021, 03:23:38 PM
State senate election in Meeks’ old district today.
This is a swingier area so it could be an interesting election.
Meeks won as a non-incumbent in 2018 with around a 4% margin.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on January 26, 2021, 07:16:03 PM
State senate election in Meeks’ old district today.
This is a swingier area so it could be an interesting election.
Meeks won as a non-incumbent in 2018 with around a 4% margin.
We have a Rain in Nova-esque information drop.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: jimrtex on January 26, 2021, 07:16:53 PM
TX 68th HD is titanium R following that on Jan 23.

That is an understatement.

David Spiller(R) 43.9%
Craig Carter (R) 18.1%
John Berry (R) 17.4%
Jason Brinkley (R) 16.3%
Charles Gregory (D) 4.3%

Gregory got zero votes in Cottle and King counties.

Spiller and Carter advance to the special runoff, though Texas does permit a candidate to withdraw from the runoff. Given that the House is in session, Carter might be talked into withdrawing.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on January 26, 2021, 07:26:09 PM
TX 68th HD is titanium R following that on Jan 23.

That is an understatement.

David Spiller(R) 43.9%
Craig Carter (R) 18.1%
John Berry (R) 17.4%
Jason Brinkley (R) 16.3%
Charles Gregory (D) 4.3%

Gregory got zero votes in Cottle and King counties.

Spiller and Carter advance to the special runoff, though Texas does permit a candidate to withdraw from the runoff. Given that the House is in session, Carter might be talked into withdrawing.

Rip. This was a McGovern 1972 County. And a Mondale 1984 County.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on January 26, 2021, 07:29:12 PM
TX 68th HD is titanium R following that on Jan 23.

That is an understatement.

David Spiller(R) 43.9%
Craig Carter (R) 18.1%
John Berry (R) 17.4%
Jason Brinkley (R) 16.3%
Charles Gregory (D) 4.3%

Gregory got zero votes in Cottle and King counties.

Spiller and Carter advance to the special runoff, though Texas does permit a candidate to withdraw from the runoff. Given that the House is in session, Carter might be talked into withdrawing.
This is actually a severe underperformance from 2018, panic time?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on January 26, 2021, 07:41:23 PM
TX 68th HD is titanium R following that on Jan 23.

That is an understatement.

David Spiller(R) 43.9%
Craig Carter (R) 18.1%
John Berry (R) 17.4%
Jason Brinkley (R) 16.3%
Charles Gregory (D) 4.3%

Gregory got zero votes in Cottle and King counties.

Spiller and Carter advance to the special runoff, though Texas does permit a candidate to withdraw from the runoff. Given that the House is in session, Carter might be talked into withdrawing.
This is actually a severe underperformance from 2018, panic time?
The turnout for these election is almost nothing and in titanium R areas like this no democrat is gonna be a consistent voter.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: walleye26 on January 26, 2021, 08:06:54 PM
Will be interesting to see the Iowa election result tonight. Today at my home (Dodge County, WI) we got over 6” of snow with 30mph winds. It was a blizzard. Parts of Iowa and Northern Illinois were much worse, so if the GOP voters waited until Election Day, that will help Dems.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on January 26, 2021, 11:25:07 PM

Republcian win by +10.6, more evidence of democrats entering there dying throes in rural Iowa.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on January 26, 2021, 11:28:00 PM
That’s not a totally awful performance for dems



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on January 26, 2021, 11:33:22 PM
Trump won SD41 by 21 points


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on January 26, 2021, 11:47:21 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on January 26, 2021, 11:50:52 PM
Chaz is a moron. Trump won Iowa sd41 by 21 pts


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on January 26, 2021, 11:51:58 PM
Chaz is a moron. Trump won Iowa sd41 by 21 pts
Stewart came within 2 points of flipping it in 18.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 26, 2021, 11:58:57 PM
Chaz is a moron. Trump won Iowa sd41 by 21 pts
Stewart came within 2 points of flipping it in 18.

Both true. But the reason why everyone obsessed about special elections from 2017-2018 was because Dems were outperforming Clinton everywhere except Connecticut and a few other places, sometimes by massive margins. And it wasn't driven by past results, it was driven by education, suburbanization, and the trend. This regions is one of those culturally smalltown/rural areas, as highlighted by these two results, where the GOP trend is strong, but Dems enjoyed the benefits of local voters. So if we were to follow the playbook of the past few years, its not all that good of a result for the GOP, or Stewart in perticular.

In fact Chaz got burned rather bad betting on localism in 2020, so I wonder why he's still committed to that over the national topline.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MT Treasurer on January 27, 2021, 12:09:58 AM
R trends lagging behind in a low-turnout special state legislative election with unrepresentative turnout patterns (especially in a state like IA) isn’t surprising. This election was not 'bad news' for the GOP, and expecting Republicans to match or exceed Trump's margin in a race like this would be rather foolish.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on January 27, 2021, 12:49:04 AM
Bad omen considering in person was also probably reduced.
2022 is already shaping up to be an R wave.
Panic time!
Panic time!

Eh screw it America is communist and this cesspool of a country deserves to fail.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Figueira on January 27, 2021, 08:20:40 AM
This was a fun race to volunteer in, even though it didn't end well for Mary Stewart. It's hard to read much into the results when the previous state legislative results are so far from the recent presidential results.

There is a special election coming up in Maine in March for Shenna Bellows's seat. Also an R trending swing district but in this case the Democrats are defending it.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Pollster on January 27, 2021, 10:21:45 AM
It's really just futile overall to make extrapolations for 2022 from a special election that took place under both pandemic and blizzard conditions and pre-redistricting, none of which are likely to be the case in November 2022. However, Dems underperforming 2018 but overperforming 2020 is probably not the worst case scenario for them.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Red Wall on January 29, 2021, 07:25:48 AM
It's really just futile overall to make extrapolations for 2022 from a special election that took place under both pandemic and blizzard conditions and pre-redistricting, none of which are likely to be the case in November 2022. However, Dems underperforming 2018 but overperforming 2020 is probably not the worst case scenario for them.
Special elections are predictive of regular election results, many tried to spin the R candidate underperformed Trump, including the IA democratic party, but not on the fact that a 3 point loss became a 11 point loss which is just dowballot trends lagging. Technically Ossof also underperformed Hillary in GA-6 in 2017 but Tom Pryce had won it by 24 points (despite Trump only winning by 1) so he actually shed 20 points from his margin.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on January 29, 2021, 10:04:38 AM
A sample size of 2 elections is not very good, but these two elections would suggest a GOP blowout.
Let’s hope for more data soon.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: crazy jimmie on January 29, 2021, 10:55:52 AM
A sample size of 2 elections is not very good, but these two elections would suggest a GOP blowout.
Let’s hope for more data soon.

I would not worry too much about the VA HD 02 Special Election. Very few voters even knew there was an election occurring.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on January 29, 2021, 11:04:29 AM
A sample size of 2 elections is not very good, but these two elections would suggest a GOP blowout.
Let’s hope for more data soon.

I would not worry too much about the VA HD 02 Special Election. Very few voters even knew there was an election occurring.
I’m not counting that one.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Anti Democrat Democrat Club on January 31, 2021, 05:16:57 AM


Former CA-50 candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar puts out a bizarre press release in the AD-79 race. He humble-brags about leading the polls and how his exploratory committee saw a path to victory

and then passes on running because he doesn't want to get in the way of a woman of color.

Now I'm just watching this guy's career because it's like a trainwreck in real time. utter self immolation.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on January 31, 2021, 05:56:55 AM

Former CA-50 candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar puts out a bizarre press release in the AD-79 race. He humble-brags about leading the polls and how his exploratory committee saw a path to victory

and then passes on running because he doesn't want to get in the way of a woman of color.

Now I'm just watching this guy's career because it's like a trainwreck in real time. utter self immolation.
maybe he's hoping the CA-50 get's redrawn to be more favourable and he get it nextime ?
Didn't he also get in trouble for being very alt-right and giving an interview to like a white nationalist group ? maybe he's trying to score woke points to get more favourable ?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Anti Democrat Democrat Club on January 31, 2021, 02:14:40 PM
maybe he's hoping the CA-50 get's redrawn to be more favourable and he get it nextime ?
Didn't he also get in trouble for being very alt-right and giving an interview to like a white nationalist group ? maybe he's trying to score woke points to get more favourable ?

I mean he's openly said he's open to challenging Issa if the conditions are right.

Either way, he's proven he's devoid of principle.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LtNOWIS on February 24, 2021, 07:10:07 PM
TX-HD-68

David Spiller (R)
4,158   63%


Craig Carter (R)
2,452   37%

Per OurCampaigns, Spiller won all but two counties.


()


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ctrepublican512 on February 24, 2021, 11:51:41 PM
is there a website that lists upcoming special elections?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: jimrtex on February 25, 2021, 11:11:46 AM
is there a website that lists upcoming special elections?

talkelections.org


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on March 02, 2021, 10:55:42 PM
https://www.bostonherald.com/2021/03/02/jeffrey-turco-claims-victory-in-19th-suffolk-primary-to-replace-deleo/

Democrats nominate somebody who voted for Trump in 2016 in a Massachusetts state house seat from the Boston metro area that voted 60-36 for Clinton.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Figueira on March 09, 2021, 08:51:53 PM
https://bangordailynews.com/2021/03/09/politics/follow-the-election-results-in-maine-senate-district-14/

Hickman (D) wins in Maine!!! Democratic hold, but it's a swing district so still exciting.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on March 09, 2021, 08:56:02 PM
https://bangordailynews.com/2021/03/09/politics/follow-the-election-results-in-maine-senate-district-14/

Hickman (D) wins in Maine!!! Democratic hold, but it's a swing district so still exciting.
It's a Trump-Biden district, the democratic nominee a progressive african american won it an absolute landslide after Biden won it by a point.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on March 09, 2021, 11:27:33 PM
The Democrats are poised to flip Michelle Steel's OC Board of Supervisors seat. This will be the first time in over 100 years the Dems will hold this seat, and this victory cuts the GOP's majority to 3-2.

There is no runoff here so if Foley maintains her lead, she wins.



EDIT: There are only 5K in-person votes outstanding. The seat is hers.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Tintrlvr on March 09, 2021, 11:50:38 PM
Why did 3 Rs and 2 Ds run for the seat if there's no runoff?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on March 10, 2021, 12:01:20 AM
Why did 3 Rs and 2 Ds run for the seat if there's no runoff?

Yea, that was a failure.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mike Thick on March 10, 2021, 03:23:05 AM
I was pretty tuned out of this one but expected Moorlach to win handily. Pleasantly surprised, guess it makes sense with the vote splitting.

Just a few years ago, Moorlach was this titan of OCGOP with a 25-year career in tons of different state and county level jobs. Went from that to losing re-election narrowly, then getting utterly creamed when he ran for his old supervisorial seat. Now OCDems are a stone’s throw from flipping the board. “Political earthquake” is overused these days but this is one


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Pollster on March 10, 2021, 09:55:58 AM
Even with the benefit of vote splitting, it still looks like Dems combined got 51%. Quite impressive.

Does anybody from the area know if either of the Dem candidates had special local appeal or name recognition, or is this just a product of trends? Or both?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on March 10, 2021, 10:28:25 AM
Even with the benefit of vote splitting, it still looks like Dems combined got 51%. Quite impressive.

Does anybody from the area know if either of the Dem candidates had special local appeal or name recognition, or is this just a product of trends? Or both?

Foley is the mayor of Costa Mesa and is quite popular from what I have read.

It's also probably a product of trends considering the combined votes for the Dem candidates nearly accounted for a majority of those cast, and the district is R+8 in registration.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: prag_prog on March 10, 2021, 11:03:28 AM
Even with the benefit of vote splitting, it still looks like Dems combined got 51%. Quite impressive.

Does anybody from the area know if either of the Dem candidates had special local appeal or name recognition, or is this just a product of trends? Or both?
In the final tally, Foley's vote share did go down...final tally once after results were updated with EDay votes had Dems at 49% (assuming all Dem leaning votes went to Foley + Rappaport)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: walleye26 on March 16, 2021, 08:50:31 PM
Here in Wisconsin SD-13 (Fitzgerald’s old seat) I’ve been getting pummeled with mail. Jagler has been sending out mail a ton and I recently got one from Mary Winker, the Democrat. Still safe R, but the results will be interesting to see.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on March 24, 2021, 02:13:39 AM
Another Virginia special election, no change from the presential results. Safe Republican Hold.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: walleye26 on March 29, 2021, 01:24:37 PM
I know that this is a special state legislature thread, but I wanted to include the Wausau (my hometown!) school board election here too, in addition to WI’s two specials next Tuesday. What is happening in Wausau is an exceptionally brutal school board campaign, and it’s one of the most bitter I’ve ever seen in my lifetime.
Wausau (about 40,000 people) started the year virtually, as did many others before slowly transitioning to a hybrid model. Some Wausau students open enrolled in neighboring farm districts who were in person to start.

Enter the conflict: Wausau school board President Tricia Zunker (the Dem nominee for WI-7 last year) along with two others are up for re-election. The local GOP has slammed them for keeping everything virtual to start the year and for Wausau losing enrollment. Three challengers, Karen Vanderburg, Jon Creisher, and Cody Nikolai are running a joint campaign (something I haven’t seen before) with the slogan “Restoring Confidence.” They want a full reopening and have been slamming the Wausau school board for various Covid measures. It’s caused a complete cluster***k in Wausau: tempers have flown at school board meetings, the three challengers are accused of being bankrolled by the local GOP (they have raised large amounts of money) and have had ethics complaints lodged against them for not disclosing who is paying for their ads (the three said their printer forgot to put the “paid for by” at the bottom of their yard signs and are essentially accusing the media of a hit job). It’s a mess.

Kevin Hermening, the Marathon County GOP chairman, said “Tricia Zunker as Wausau School Board President is a waste of physical space on this planet. She is heartless, doesn’t understand science, hasn’t read a single research article about the failure of online schooling in the spring.” In addition, he implied she did illegal things for raising funds for her Congressional race (without evidence) and predicted an indictment. For what, I’m not sure. In the post Trump era, welcome to local politics.

Anyway, since it’s my hometown, I wanted to add this.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Frenchrepublican on March 30, 2021, 07:30:13 AM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: walleye26 on April 05, 2021, 10:38:40 AM
Tomorrow is special Election Day (as well as State Super) in WI. Important development in the SD-13 special election (where I live.) Although the Democrat, Melissa Winker, faces extremely long odds in this contest (Baldwin even lost this district by 6 in 2018) she got a bit of good news last week. Don Pridemore, a Republican who lost the primary to Jagler (he got 33% of the vote in the GOP primary) announced he is waging an aggressive write in campaign. He’s even getting people writing in letters to the editor now. Pridemore was a state assemblyman, so he has some name ID in this district. Trump Conservative Party candidate Spencer Zimmerman is also running.
Although Zimmerman probably won’t get more than 3%, Pridemore could draw in a fair amount (closer to 10 perhaps?) and spoil Jagler’s win.
 https://www.wiscnews.com/bdc/opinion/letters/letter-write-in-pridemore-on-ballot/article_559d85b7-8cc9-5d46-8831-c5bbd0ff9894.html (https://www.wiscnews.com/bdc/opinion/letters/letter-write-in-pridemore-on-ballot/article_559d85b7-8cc9-5d46-8831-c5bbd0ff9894.html)
http://


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mr.Phips on April 05, 2021, 10:40:21 AM
Tomorrow is special Election Day (as well as State Super) in WI. Important development in the SD-13 special election (where I live.) Although the Democrat, Melissa Winker, faces extremely long odds in this contest (Baldwin even lost this district by 6 in 2018) she got a bit of good news last week. Don Pridemore, a Republican who lost the primary to Jagler (he got 33% of the vote in the GOP primary) announced he is waging an aggressive write in campaign. He’s even getting people writing in letters to the editor now. Pridemore was a state assemblyman, so he has some name ID in this district. Trump Conservative Party candidate Spencer Zimmerman is also running.
Although Zimmerman probably won’t get more than 3%, Pridemore could draw in a fair amount (closer to 10 perhaps?) and spoil Jagler’s win.
 https://www.wiscnews.com/bdc/opinion/letters/letter-write-in-pridemore-on-ballot/article_559d85b7-8cc9-5d46-8831-c5bbd0ff9894.html (https://www.wiscnews.com/bdc/opinion/letters/letter-write-in-pridemore-on-ballot/article_559d85b7-8cc9-5d46-8831-c5bbd0ff9894.html)
http://

This if this is within 20 points I’ll be very surprised.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: walleye26 on April 05, 2021, 03:55:01 PM
Yes, I expect Jagler to win by about 15-20, but I think it’ll be interesting to keep an eye on margins in places like Beaver Dam and Columbus. Special elections are just so unpredictable and the fact that Pridemore is going on some write-in offensive against Jagler is interesting.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Hope For A New Era on April 06, 2021, 02:20:53 PM
Oklahoma State Senate 22 special election today. Bice's old seat. Curious to see the results.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on April 06, 2021, 08:12:11 PM
Wow, with 20% of the vote in, the dem is leading in SD22, by 3 votes.

909-906

won the early vote by 20%!!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: walleye26 on April 06, 2021, 08:25:18 PM
Winker has a small lead in SD-13, but half of Dane’s precincts are in, and 60% of Waukesha’s.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on April 06, 2021, 08:50:27 PM
FWIW, the oklahoma early vote was a total mirage in SD22.

GOP candidate up 63-36 with 55% of vote in.

just amazing

dem won AB/EV 59-41

losing eday by 35 points


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on April 06, 2021, 09:02:38 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on April 06, 2021, 10:11:58 PM
I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on April 06, 2021, 10:23:54 PM
I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on April 06, 2021, 10:28:16 PM
I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.
Margin of error or not, any over performance or underperformance can’t be brushed off without some extreme circumstances. This isn’t proof of anything obviously, it’s one tiny race, but it’s a datapoint.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on April 06, 2021, 10:31:17 PM
I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.
Margin of error or not, any over performance or underperformance can’t be brushed off without some extreme circumstances. This isn’t proof of anything obviously, it’s one tiny race, but it’s a datapoint.

I disagree. The average overperformance compared to 2020 results so far in 2021 state-level special elections has been about 2.3 R.

That doesn't mean jack. squat imo.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on April 06, 2021, 10:34:10 PM
I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.
Margin of error or not, any over performance or underperformance can’t be brushed off without some extreme circumstances. This isn’t proof of anything obviously, it’s one tiny race, but it’s a datapoint.

I disagree. The average overperformance compared to 2020 results so far in 2021 state-level special elections has been about 2.3 R.

That doesn't mean jack. squat imo.
Yes...yes it does.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Hope For A New Era on April 07, 2021, 06:40:07 AM
Wisconsin SD13 results:

Jagler 51.16
Winker 43.77
Zimmerman 4.55
Schmitz 0.52

D overperformance, and a pretty substantial one. R+7.39 here, while 2018 was R+18.18.

Even if you assign the entire third-party vote to Republicans (ASP would probably split more evenly, but whatever), that's still only R+12.46.

I guess that just goes to show how powerful the Trump-on-the-ballot effect is in Wisconsin.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Pollster on April 07, 2021, 09:03:07 AM
Piping in here to point out that there are no margins of error in actual election results.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Meatball Ron on April 07, 2021, 09:50:29 AM
I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.
Margin of error or not, any over performance or underperformance can’t be brushed off without some extreme circumstances. This isn’t proof of anything obviously, it’s one tiny race, but it’s a datapoint.

I disagree. The average overperformance compared to 2020 results so far in 2021 state-level special elections has been about 2.3 R.

That doesn't mean jack. squat imo.

Source on the 2.3 point R over-performance? There is a tracker that circulates on Twitter (I am struggling to find it right now but will edit this post when I do) that most recently showed a slight Democratic over-performance in fact.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Frenchrepublican on April 07, 2021, 09:54:52 AM
I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.
Margin of error or not, any over performance or underperformance can’t be brushed off without some extreme circumstances. This isn’t proof of anything obviously, it’s one tiny race, but it’s a datapoint.

I disagree. The average overperformance compared to 2020 results so far in 2021 state-level special elections has been about 2.3 R.

That doesn't mean jack. squat imo.

Source on the 2.3 point R over-performance? There is a tracker that circulates on Twitter (I am struggling to find it right now but will edit this post when I do) that most recently showed a slight Democratic over-performance in fact.

Here is the link :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vf9-VFavJ3lyYsSrKX1ECuP5DyVlegDtG-UJLpQvh7s/edit#gid=702358838


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Meatball Ron on April 07, 2021, 09:58:27 AM
I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.
Margin of error or not, any over performance or underperformance can’t be brushed off without some extreme circumstances. This isn’t proof of anything obviously, it’s one tiny race, but it’s a datapoint.

I disagree. The average overperformance compared to 2020 results so far in 2021 state-level special elections has been about 2.3 R.

That doesn't mean jack. squat imo.

Source on the 2.3 point R over-performance? There is a tracker that circulates on Twitter (I am struggling to find it right now but will edit this post when I do) that most recently showed a slight Democratic over-performance in fact.

Here is the link :

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vf9-VFavJ3lyYsSrKX1ECuP5DyVlegDtG-UJLpQvh7s/edit#gid=702358838

Thank you!

So yes - slight Democratic overperformance. Nothing we can read into I suspect.

Edit: ah, I am noticing these calcs are based on 2016 numbers. An overperformance of Clinton may not translate to an overperformance of Biden, since Biden did better than Clinton. The tracker circulating on Twitter that I was referring to I *believe* had mostly Biden 2020 #s and only calculated swing for races for which 2020 data was available.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Frenchrepublican on April 07, 2021, 09:58:51 AM
Wisconsin SD13 results:

Jagler 51.16
Winker 43.77
Zimmerman 4.55
Schmitz 0.52

D overperformance, and a pretty substantial one. R+7.39 here, while 2018 was R+18.18.

Even if you assign the entire third-party vote to Republicans (ASP would probably split more evenly, but whatever), that's still only R+12.46.

I guess that just goes to show how powerful the Trump-on-the-ballot effect is in Wisconsin.

It just shows that when the main statewide race features two democrats many republicans voters are simply not going to turn out to the polls. (What a surprise).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MT Treasurer on April 07, 2021, 12:01:21 PM
Wisconsin SD13 results:

Jagler 51.16
Winker 43.77
Zimmerman 4.55
Schmitz 0.52

D overperformance, and a pretty substantial one. R+7.39 here, while 2018 was R+18.18.

Even if you assign the entire third-party vote to Republicans (ASP would probably split more evenly, but whatever), that's still only R+12.46.

I guess that just goes to show how powerful the Trump-on-the-ballot effect is in Wisconsin.

It just shows that when the main statewide race features two democrats many republicans voters are simply not going to turn out to the polls. (What a surprise).

Don’t ruin the narrative/disturb the echo chamber.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on April 07, 2021, 01:12:16 PM
Blue Avs if this was a Republican over performance would be talking about how this is a terrible sign for Dems in the midterms and how the House will certainly flip (which it will but I digress)
Now that it’s a Dem over performance, they chose to ignore the data? Y’all are falling into the Atlas Dem trap of 2020 where all polls that showed Biden/Dems not doing great were “junk” for some reason.
Go ahead, I personally would rather it be on your side anyways lmao.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on April 07, 2021, 04:39:47 PM
Blue Avs if this was a Republican over performance would be talking about how this is a terrible sign for Dems in the midterms and how the House will certainly flip (which it will but I digress)
Now that it’s a Dem over performance, they chose to ignore the data? Y’all are falling into the Atlas Dem trap of 2020 where all polls that showed Biden/Dems not doing great were “junk” for some reason.
Go ahead, I personally would rather it be on your side anyways lmao.

We have 100+ years of data showing that the party out of power does well in house midterm elections

Senate and gubernatorial more mixed

Repubs need to flip like 5 seats in 2022. That is incredibly easy and should be a layup with good recruiting.

As Harry enten and others have said, out of power parties gaining house seats in midterm races is almost as predictable as the sun rising in the east.

It repubs can’t flip 5 seats, then they deserve a leadership-cleansing.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on April 07, 2021, 05:15:34 PM
Blue Avs if this was a Republican over performance would be talking about how this is a terrible sign for Dems in the midterms and how the House will certainly flip (which it will but I digress)
Now that it’s a Dem over performance, they chose to ignore the data? Y’all are falling into the Atlas Dem trap of 2020 where all polls that showed Biden/Dems not doing great were “junk” for some reason.
Go ahead, I personally would rather it be on your side anyways lmao.

We have 100+ years of data showing that the party out of power does well in house midterm elections

Senate and gubernatorial more mixed

Repubs need to flip like 5 seats in 2022. That is incredibly easy and should be a layup with good recruiting.

As Harry enten and others have said, out of power parties gaining house seats in midterm races is almost as predictable as the sun rising in the east.

It repubs can’t flip 5 seats, then they deserve a leadership-cleansing.
I'm not f[inks]ing arguing that. You do realize I am a proud Doomercrat, right?
But again, you are falling into the spiral Atlas Dems fell into pre-2020 a bit, although you probably will not suffer as much embarrassment because 2022 will be good for the gop, your logic that we can just cherrypick data is bull- and only will work in very partisan years.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on April 11, 2021, 01:46:21 AM
Okay. Here are the upcoming elections:

April 13: New Hampshire House, D-21
April 13: Connecticut House, D-112


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on April 12, 2021, 01:02:00 PM
Oh, I forgot to mention, it appears that the WI-89 election which also took place that day was pretty good for Democrats. Although incumbency explains some stuff, we did have our best election in that district since 2012.
Will be interesting to watch the next two specials on the 13th.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Hope For A New Era on April 12, 2021, 01:19:30 PM
Wisconsin SD13 results:

Jagler 51.16
Winker 43.77
Zimmerman 4.55
Schmitz 0.52

D overperformance, and a pretty substantial one. R+7.39 here, while 2018 was R+18.18.

Even if you assign the entire third-party vote to Republicans (ASP would probably split more evenly, but whatever), that's still only R+12.46.

I guess that just goes to show how powerful the Trump-on-the-ballot effect is in Wisconsin.

It just shows that when the main statewide race features two democrats many republicans voters are simply not going to turn out to the polls. (What a surprise).

Don’t ruin the narrative/disturb the echo chamber.

Okay, explain why 2018 didn't have the extreme-R rural margins of 2016 and 2020 then.

Trump and Obama are the same. They have a large number of low-propensity voters who only show up to vote for their guy.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on April 12, 2021, 03:08:26 PM
Wisconsin SD13 results:

Jagler 51.16
Winker 43.77
Zimmerman 4.55
Schmitz 0.52

D overperformance, and a pretty substantial one. R+7.39 here, while 2018 was R+18.18.

Even if you assign the entire third-party vote to Republicans (ASP would probably split more evenly, but whatever), that's still only R+12.46.

I guess that just goes to show how powerful the Trump-on-the-ballot effect is in Wisconsin.

It just shows that when the main statewide race features two democrats many republicans voters are simply not going to turn out to the polls. (What a surprise).

Don’t ruin the narrative/disturb the echo chamber.

Okay, explain why 2018 didn't have the extreme-R rural margins of 2016 and 2020 then.

Trump and Obama are the same. They have a large number of low-propensity voters who only show up to vote for their guy.
Which one of these years was a D wave?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Hope For A New Era on April 12, 2021, 03:53:37 PM
Wisconsin SD13 results:

Jagler 51.16
Winker 43.77
Zimmerman 4.55
Schmitz 0.52

D overperformance, and a pretty substantial one. R+7.39 here, while 2018 was R+18.18.

Even if you assign the entire third-party vote to Republicans (ASP would probably split more evenly, but whatever), that's still only R+12.46.

I guess that just goes to show how powerful the Trump-on-the-ballot effect is in Wisconsin.

It just shows that when the main statewide race features two democrats many republicans voters are simply not going to turn out to the polls. (What a surprise).

Don’t ruin the narrative/disturb the echo chamber.

Okay, explain why 2018 didn't have the extreme-R rural margins of 2016 and 2020 then.

Trump and Obama are the same. They have a large number of low-propensity voters who only show up to vote for their guy.
Which one of these years was a D wave?

2018. I'm saying the reason 2018 was a D wave and 2020 wasn't was Trump being on the ballot, because he brings out thousands upon thousands of low-propensity voters who are otherwise probably not very political at all, or at least not ideological. It's the same reason 2010 and 2014 were R waves while 2012 was sort of a no-wave. Obama brought out low-propensity voters in huge numbers too, and when he was not on the ballot, Dems collapsed.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Anti Democrat Democrat Club on April 13, 2021, 08:10:58 PM
I hope IndyRep doesn't mind me hijacking his thread. NH state rep election. Quickly D-trending suburb with a history of voting R.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on April 13, 2021, 08:34:03 PM
They just released the result



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: VAR on April 13, 2021, 08:35:39 PM
Really doesn’t bode well for Hassan IMO, but we’ll see I guess.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on April 13, 2021, 08:37:23 PM
Really doesn’t bode well for Hassan, but we’ll see I guess.

this result is in line with the 2016 result, which was a hillary win statewide.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: VAR on April 13, 2021, 08:42:54 PM
Really doesn’t bode well for Hassan, but we’ll see I guess.

this result is in line with the 2016 result, which was a hillary win statewide.

So? Hassan needs to do well in places like this to have a prayer statewide because the working-class areas could swing harder against her.

Anyway, let’s not extrapolate too much from this


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on April 13, 2021, 09:30:47 PM
GOP won the CT special election by 7.

who won this in 2020? biden or trump?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on April 13, 2021, 09:35:49 PM
GOP won the CT special election by 7.

who won this in 2020? biden or trump?
Biden, but republican are pretty strong down-ballot in this district.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on April 13, 2021, 09:45:32 PM
GOP won the CT special election by 7.

who won this in 2020? biden or trump?
Biden, but republican are pretty strong down-ballot in this district.

Thanks for the info.

Nothing to read into much.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on April 13, 2021, 09:51:19 PM
GOP won the CT special election by 7.

who won this in 2020? biden or trump?
Biden, but republican are pretty strong down-ballot in this district.

Thanks for the info.

Nothing to read into much.


It's a Trump +11 2016 to a Biden +0.2 in 2020, so probably a case of trends taking time to make their way downballot.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Frenchrepublican on April 14, 2021, 08:11:07 AM


For now dem candidates running in special elections have underperformed Biden by 0.6 on average.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Brittain33 on April 14, 2021, 12:56:39 PM
For now dem candidates running in special elections have underperformed Biden by 0.6 on average.

Makes sense since that’s roughly what happened in federal downballot races last year, too.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: walleye26 on April 27, 2021, 07:34:36 PM
WI AD-37 will be July 13. That’s Jagler’s old seat. Likely R, contains Watertown, Columbus, parts of De Forest and a few townships of Dane County, and Waterloo.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on May 02, 2021, 12:47:19 PM
Major special election coming in May 18. Senate district 20 in PA has a vacancy and there will be a special to determine who gets the vacant seat.

This seat is based primarily in Lackawanna County (Scranton) and is also in Cartwright’s house district.
The Democratic incumbent won this seat in 2018 (D+8 year) by a 22% margin.

Although that number seems high, this is prime Trump voter territory and a seat Republicans will want to win. If the GOP does pull it off, it would signal doom for Democrats in their WWC holdings. On the other hand, if Democrats do better than expected (honestly any margin over 10% in my opinion) it will support the Atlas rhetoric about low propensity Trumpers.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Frenchrepublican on May 02, 2021, 03:46:21 PM
Major special election coming in May 18. Senate district 20 in PA has a vacancy and there will be a special to determine who gets the vacant seat.

This seat is based primarily in Lackawanna County (Scranton) and is also in Cartwright’s house district.
The Democratic incumbent won this seat in 2018 (D+8 year) by a 22% margin.

Although that number seems high, this is prime Trump voter territory and a seat Republicans will want to win. If the GOP does pull it off, it would signal doom for Democrats in their WWC holdings. On the other hand, if Democrats do better than expected (honestly any margin over 10% in my opinion) it will support the Atlas rhetoric about low propensity Trumpers.

LOL, Biden won this district by 9 and Clinton still won it by 4 (yeah, it actually trended left), it's clearly not '' Trump territory ''.

Moreover the district you are talking about is not SD20 but SD22.

Concerning the special election it is very unlikely that the GOP will be able to win it, a Biden+9 district in a such area is probably safe/likely D and if the GOP is able to put it in the single digit it would be alreday pretty impressive.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on May 02, 2021, 03:48:01 PM
Major special election coming in May 18. Senate district 20 in PA has a vacancy and there will be a special to determine who gets the vacant seat.

This seat is based primarily in Lackawanna County (Scranton) and is also in Cartwright’s house district.
The Democratic incumbent won this seat in 2018 (D+8 year) by a 22% margin.

Although that number seems high, this is prime Trump voter territory and a seat Republicans will want to win. If the GOP does pull it off, it would signal doom for Democrats in their WWC holdings. On the other hand, if Democrats do better than expected (honestly any margin over 10% in my opinion) it will support the Atlas rhetoric about low propensity Trumpers.

LOL, Biden won this district by 9 and Clinton still won it by 4 (yeah, it actually trended left), it's clearly not '' Trump territory ''.

Moreover the district you are talking about is not SD20 but SD22.

Concerning the special election it is very unlikely that the GOP will be able to win it, a Biden+9 district in a such area is probably safe/likely D and if the GOP is able to put it in the single digit it would be alreday pretty impressive.

IDK though the Rust Belt is where we really need fresh data.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on May 02, 2021, 04:46:12 PM
Major special election coming in May 18. Senate district 20 in PA has a vacancy and there will be a special to determine who gets the vacant seat.

This seat is based primarily in Lackawanna County (Scranton) and is also in Cartwright’s house district.
The Democratic incumbent won this seat in 2018 (D+8 year) by a 22% margin.

Although that number seems high, this is prime Trump voter territory and a seat Republicans will want to win. If the GOP does pull it off, it would signal doom for Democrats in their WWC holdings. On the other hand, if Democrats do better than expected (honestly any margin over 10% in my opinion) it will support the Atlas rhetoric about low propensity Trumpers.

LOL, Biden won this district by 9 and Clinton still won it by 4 (yeah, it actually trended left), it's clearly not '' Trump territory ''.

Moreover the district you are talking about is not SD20 but SD22.

Concerning the special election it is very unlikely that the GOP will be able to win it, a Biden+9 district in a such area is probably safe/likely D and if the GOP is able to put it in the single digit it would be alreday pretty impressive.
These are the types of places the GOP will want over performances in by now to have a good chance at nabbing some of these WWC seats.

It will be very possibly competitive, and writing off this district is not something I would advise.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Frenchrepublican on May 04, 2021, 03:09:16 PM
Major special election coming in May 18. Senate district 20 in PA has a vacancy and there will be a special to determine who gets the vacant seat.

This seat is based primarily in Lackawanna County (Scranton) and is also in Cartwright’s house district.
The Democratic incumbent won this seat in 2018 (D+8 year) by a 22% margin.

Although that number seems high, this is prime Trump voter territory and a seat Republicans will want to win. If the GOP does pull it off, it would signal doom for Democrats in their WWC holdings. On the other hand, if Democrats do better than expected (honestly any margin over 10% in my opinion) it will support the Atlas rhetoric about low propensity Trumpers.

LOL, Biden won this district by 9 and Clinton still won it by 4 (yeah, it actually trended left), it's clearly not '' Trump territory ''.

Moreover the district you are talking about is not SD20 but SD22.

Concerning the special election it is very unlikely that the GOP will be able to win it, a Biden+9 district in a such area is probably safe/likely D and if the GOP is able to put it in the single digit it would be alreday pretty impressive.
These are the types of places the GOP will want over performances in by now to have a good chance at nabbing some of these WWC seats.

It will be very possibly competitive, and writing off this district is not something I would advise.

I mean, Biden underperformed every statewide democratic candidates in northeastern PA and despite that he still won the seat by 9, there is no reason to expect the GOP to take this seat, especially considering how dem friendly it is downballot.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: VAR on May 18, 2021, 10:59:54 AM
Here's some info about the four state legislative special elections in Pennsylvania today.

HD 59 (rural Western PA)
Trump +44 -- Barletta +22 -- Wagner +18 -- Trump +41
Watch the margins here.

HD 60 (rural Western PA)
Trump +49 -- Barletta +27 -- Wagner +24 -- Trump +48
Watch the margins here as well.

SD 22 (primarily Lackawanna County)
Clinton +4 -- McGinty +13 -- Casey +23 -- Wolf +30 -- Biden +9
Lackawanna County Commissioner Chris Chermak (R) is running against State Rep. Martin Flynn (D-Scranton) in this district that has shifted toward Republicans over the last decade. Chermak faces an uphill battle not only because of the district's partisan lean, but also because this area is heavily Democratic downballot. Democrats should be concerned if Chermak outruns Trump, and if he wins, it would be a devastating sign for them in the Rust Belt.

SD 48 (Lebanon & southern Dauphin)
Trump +25 -- Barletta +13 -- Wagner +4 -- Trump +20
Neutral-trending district with a few urban/suburban pockets--watch the margins here, too, I suppose.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on May 18, 2021, 12:40:50 PM
Watch Chermak win.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on May 18, 2021, 07:35:23 PM
Any news on these?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Brittain33 on May 18, 2021, 08:26:49 PM

Follow @ChazNuttycombe on Twitter.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Wormless Gourd on May 18, 2021, 08:32:21 PM
PA-SEN 22

Marty Flynn
DEM
11,084   49.88%

Chris Chermak
GOP
8,608   38.73%

Marlene Sebastianelli
GRE
2,282   10.27%

Nathan Covington
LIB
249   1.12%

4% in, but that Green vote is bizarrely high. Apparently the Scranton Times endorsed them? Why?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gass3268 on May 18, 2021, 08:34:23 PM
46.94% Flynn (D)
39.22% Chermak (R)
9.82% Sebastianelli (G)
1.09% Covington (L)

114/163 but no mail yet.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on May 18, 2021, 08:34:53 PM
270towin is actually ahead of the PA SOS in reporting.

In PA-SEN-48, Clements is up 67-27 with ~5,000 votes in. 250,000 people live in the district, so I would think that with state legislature S.E. turnout that this isn't very good.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on May 18, 2021, 09:01:31 PM
Oh my God Chermak might do it...


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on May 18, 2021, 09:02:02 PM
46.94% Flynn (D)
39.22% Chermak (R)
9.82% Sebastianelli (G)
1.09% Covington (L)

114/163 but no mail yet.
Seems to be a very good result for the democrats. up by 7 with no mail-in votes and strong green spoiler.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 18, 2021, 09:04:08 PM
PA-SEN 22

Marty Flynn
DEM
11,084   49.88%

Chris Chermak
GOP
8,608   38.73%

Marlene Sebastianelli
GRE
2,282   10.27%

Nathan Covington
LIB
249   1.12%

4% in, but that Green vote is bizarrely high. Apparently the Scranton Times endorsed them? Why?



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on May 18, 2021, 09:04:50 PM
61% in (PA-SEN 22)
Flynn (D): 46.5%
Chermak (R): 42.9%
Sebastianelli (G): 9.5%
Covington (L): 1.1%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Wormless Gourd on May 18, 2021, 09:07:35 PM

I love when local newspapers still have some muscle on these issues, gives me hope.

61% in (PA-SEN 22)
Flynn (D): 46.5%
Chermak (R): 42.9%
Sebastianelli (G): 9.5%
Covington (L): 1.1%
DDHQ has the same numbers saying 74% in. Can't be right, and it seems too close if mail-ins aren't counted yet?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on May 18, 2021, 09:10:11 PM

I love when local newspapers still have some muscle on these issues, gives me hope.

61% in (PA-SEN 22)
Flynn (D): 46.5%
Chermak (R): 42.9%
Sebastianelli (G): 9.5%
Covington (L): 1.1%
DDHQ has the same numbers saying 74% in. Can't be right, and it seems too close if mail-ins aren't counted yet?

Well I assume the Green voters would normally go Blue, which means its really 56-42. Considering a long-time incumbent only won the general with 61%.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Devils30 on May 18, 2021, 09:16:31 PM
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1394836455248302080

Seems like we can pencil in a Dem win but lets see about the margin.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on May 18, 2021, 09:20:59 PM
A high single digits Dem win is about what we expected.
Nothing surprising here.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mexican Wolf on May 18, 2021, 09:24:32 PM
Why is the 48th Senate District taking so long to report results? 270towin is still only showing 5,000-some votes counted. Not that I expect anything other than Gebhard winning comfortably, but it would be interesting to see the overall margin.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: lfromnj on May 18, 2021, 09:25:17 PM
The Green got the endorsement of the local newspaper FWIW.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gass3268 on May 18, 2021, 09:25:48 PM
Mail vote just dropped, Flynn up by ~14


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Wormless Gourd on May 18, 2021, 09:27:15 PM
Lackawanna mails-ins were brutal:

Flynn: 8,413

Chermak: 2,013


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on May 18, 2021, 09:27:45 PM
Lackawanna mails-ins were brutal:

Flynn: 8,413

Chermak: 2,013
Holy-

I guess the mail in divide is not going to stop even as Covid dwindles down.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on May 18, 2021, 09:28:12 PM
Clements still leading by 13.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Hope For A New Era on May 18, 2021, 09:28:27 PM
270towin now:

Marty Flynn DEM    29,023    51.57%
Chris Chermak GOP    21,346    37.93%
Marlene Sebastianelli GRE    5,292    9.40%
Nathan Covington LIB    614    1.09%


D+13.64, with a strong Green candidate. That's pretty impressive, especially considering the Green vote. In theory, the "under the surface result" could be as much as D+23, putting it on par with Casey 2018, though I suspect that in reality the newspaper endorsement has created some unusual voting patterns. The true two-party result would probably be something like D+18 or so, if I had to guess.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on May 18, 2021, 09:30:26 PM
That lead should evaporate pretty quickly when more reporting comes.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 18, 2021, 09:35:19 PM
270towin now:

Marty Flynn DEM    29,023    51.57%
Chris Chermak GOP    21,346    37.93%
Marlene Sebastianelli GRE    5,292    9.40%
Nathan Covington LIB    614    1.09%


D+13.64, with a strong Green candidate. That's pretty impressive, especially considering the Green vote. In theory, the "under the surface result" could be as much as D+23, putting it on par with Casey 2018, though I suspect that in reality the newspaper endorsement has created some unusual voting patterns. The true two-party result would probably be something like D+18 or so, if I had to guess.

Yeah, at the end of the day this is going to be a result with a MOE. The localist nature of the green candidate means you can't just assume everyone is a federal dem, but it also isn't 50-50. I'm sure a precinct analysis post-election which compares her vote to the Dem/Rep vote will give us a clear answer, but that is a detail which will be lost in the hot takes.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Devils30 on May 18, 2021, 09:51:56 PM
It's a solid result for the Dems, with the greens included it's about 61-39 when giving Libertarians to GOP.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MT Treasurer on May 18, 2021, 09:54:17 PM
It's a solid result for the Dems, with the greens included it's about 61-39 when giving Libertarians to GOP.

Assuming that all Green voters would have broken for the Democrat is nonsense.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Devils30 on May 18, 2021, 09:59:32 PM
It's a solid result for the Dems, with the greens included it's about 61-39 when giving Libertarians to GOP.

Assuming that all Green voters would have broken for the Democrat is nonsense.

It's not a 50-50 thing with these types, sorry. Not 100% of course but the vast majority absolutely are Biden over Trump and D over R.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Hope For A New Era on May 18, 2021, 10:19:40 PM
It's a solid result for the Dems, with the greens included it's about 61-39 when giving Libertarians to GOP.

Assuming that all Green voters would have broken for the Democrat is nonsense.

It's not a 50-50 thing with these types, sorry. Not 100% of course but the vast majority absolutely are Biden over Trump and D over R.

The strong Green performance comes from a newspaper endorsement, though. It's an "all politics is local" phenomenon. I don't doubt that a majority of the Green voters are Democrats, but I wouldn't be surprised to see as much as 40% of them normally being Rs. I'm just assuming they split evenly until we know more (that way if they turn out to be strongly D it's a nice surprise later).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on May 18, 2021, 10:32:04 PM
Not sure what thread this goes in, but the 2 amendment curtailing gov emergency powers are up big


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on May 18, 2021, 10:49:24 PM
Not sure what thread this goes in, but the 2 amendment curtailing gov emergency powers are up big

Ahaha sometimes I really hate the people in this state.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: PSOL on May 18, 2021, 11:03:21 PM
“40% R” JFC people, maybe 40% abstention perhaps.

Again, the Green Party *is* seen as culturally to the Left of Democrats, that doesn’t attract a voter pool that is 40% conservative. Why then isn’t the Libertarians getting anything then?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Hope For A New Era on May 18, 2021, 11:24:36 PM
It looks like we have a D overperformance in SD22 (Biden +9, Flynn +13 with a Green candidate getting 9) and HD59 (Trump +41, Rossi +33), and an R overperformance in SD48 (Trump +20, Gebhard +32) and HD60 (Trump +48, Major +57).

So, here we are with inconclusive special election results. Again.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gass3268 on May 18, 2021, 11:42:08 PM
Not sure what thread this goes in, but the 2 amendment curtailing gov emergency powers are up big

Ahaha sometimes I really hate the people in this state.

I'm not sure it's over yet.





Plus not a single mail in vote has been counted in Chester County.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on May 18, 2021, 11:47:33 PM
What's the amendment again?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Not Me, Us on May 18, 2021, 11:59:18 PM

First one changes the requirement for the legislature to end an emergency order to a simple majority rather than the current supermajority. Second one makes emergency orders expire automatically after 21 days unless the legislature extends it. Partisan power grab by the gerrymandered Republicans in the legislature.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on May 19, 2021, 12:10:20 AM
Will it pass?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on May 19, 2021, 12:19:51 AM

Both are up like 150,000 votes.

Many are calling it already. The margin might just be too insurmountable at this point.

Plus, this isn't necessarily a partisan vote. There are no party labels on this question.

Not unrealistic to think a lot of dems in PA are done with covid restrictions.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: IAMCANADIAN on May 19, 2021, 12:22:30 AM

First one changes the requirement for the legislature to end an emergency order to a simple majority rather than the current supermajority. Second one makes emergency orders expire automatically after 21 days unless the legislature extends it. Partisan power grab by the gerrymandered Republicans in the legislature.
Preventing the governor from keeping emergency powers indefinitely is a partisan power grab?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on May 19, 2021, 09:44:09 AM
It looks like we have a D overperformance in SD22 (Biden +9, Flynn +13 with a Green candidate getting 9) and HD59 (Trump +41, Rossi +33), and an R overperformance in SD48 (Trump +20, Gebhard +32) and HD60 (Trump +48, Major +57).

So, here we are with inconclusive special election results. Again.
Shove them into the averages I guess and hope for the best.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Devils30 on May 19, 2021, 10:10:45 AM
It's partisan because the current Governor is a Dem but might not really be applicable to much in the future.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: compucomp on May 19, 2021, 11:00:51 AM

Both are up like 150,000 votes.

Many are calling it already. The margin might just be too insurmountable at this point.

Plus, this isn't necessarily a partisan vote. There are no party labels on this question.

Not unrealistic to think a lot of dems in PA are done with covid restrictions.

I agree that there has to be many Dems voting yes on these amendments, particularly in Philadelphia county, where Yes is getting ~30% of the vote, 10-15% above what Republicans usually get.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 25, 2021, 05:02:54 PM


We got a breakdown of the vote, including the green share. There was a geographic concentration to her vote, which reflects the localness of her candidacy. It looks like she mainly pulled from the dem corner - or at least the Trump Dem - side of the spectrum. Definitely some Republican support of course, especially when you have a geographic rather than ideological voter base.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on June 03, 2021, 01:29:00 PM
Georgia has two legislative special elections on June 15, both in House districts formerly held by Republicans.  HD-156 is safe R, but HD-34 looks like it could potentially be interesting; it's a suburban district (Cobb County) where the former incumbent, Bert Reeves, won 56-44 in 2020, a decline from his winning percentages of 58% in 2018 and 64% in 2016.  There are two Republicans, two Democrats, and one Libertarian running.  If no one gets a majority on June 15, there will be a runoff between the top two on July 13.

Does anyone local have more insight on this race?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Holy Unifying Centrist on June 04, 2021, 08:34:44 PM
Georgia has two legislative special elections on June 15, both in House districts formerly held by Republicans.  HD-156 is safe R, but HD-34 looks like it could potentially be interesting; it's a suburban district (Cobb County) where the former incumbent, Bert Reeves, won 56-44 in 2020, a decline from his winning percentages of 58% in 2018 and 64% in 2016.  There are two Republicans, two Democrats, and one Libertarian running.  If no one gets a majority on June 15, there will be a runoff between the top two on July 13.

Does anyone local have more insight on this race?


I'm curious what the Biden-Trump numbers are in HD-34


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on June 04, 2021, 08:41:02 PM
Georgia has two legislative special elections on June 15, both in House districts formerly held by Republicans.  HD-156 is safe R, but HD-34 looks like it could potentially be interesting; it's a suburban district (Cobb County) where the former incumbent, Bert Reeves, won 56-44 in 2020, a decline from his winning percentages of 58% in 2018 and 64% in 2016.  There are two Republicans, two Democrats, and one Libertarian running.  If no one gets a majority on June 15, there will be a runoff between the top two on July 13.

Does anyone local have more insight on this race?


I'm curious what the Biden-Trump numbers are in HD-34

According to CNAnalysis, it was Trump +4. Though I'm sure Biden improved there a ton compared to Hillary. And even though it's a suburban Atlanta district, I think the fact that Trump won it should be enough to keep it in Republican hands.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: OneJ on June 08, 2021, 08:54:46 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MATTROSE94 on June 09, 2021, 11:14:39 AM
I would love to see this map happened. Too bad Maggie Hassan is a weak incumbent who will lose 53-45 against Chris Sununu. Even if Donald Trump won in 2020, Chris Sununu would have still been the favorite against Maggie Hassan IMO.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on June 10, 2021, 11:07:41 PM
Kind of interesting to note. Oregon State Rep. Mike Nearman was expelled because he let armed far-right protestors into the State Capitol back in December. Oregon has got to be one of the most polarized states in the country. You have the far-left DSA types in Portland and the far-right militia types in the rural areas.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: DINGO Joe on June 12, 2021, 10:40:15 PM
There was an election in LA to fill Troy Carter's Senate seat vacated when he defeated Karen Carter Peterson to win the LA 02 Congressional seat.  The winner was State Rep Gary Carter Jr who is not related to KCP but is Troy Carter's nephew.  It's a black majority district with a white part of Plaquemines Parish attached.  And that's the results, with white people winning Plaquemines and Carter Jr. the rest. 

https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/graphical

This means that LA state house 102 is open.  No word on how many Carters will run for that seat.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on June 12, 2021, 11:46:03 PM
Kind of interesting to note. Oregon State Rep. Mike Nearman was expelled because he let armed far-right protestors into the State Capitol back in December. Oregon has got to be one of the most polarized states in the country. You have the far-left DSA types in Portland and the far-right militia types in the rural areas.


Apparently his district is a biden district according to a tweet I saw.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on June 13, 2021, 10:40:43 AM
There was an election in LA to fill Troy Carter's Senate seat vacated when he defeated Karen Carter Peterson to win the LA 02 Congressional seat.  The winner was State Rep Gary Carter Jr who is not related to KCP but is Troy Carter's nephew.  It's a black majority district with a white part of Plaquemines Parish attached.  And that's the results, with white people winning Plaquemines and Carter Jr. the rest. 

https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/graphical

This means that LA state house 102 is open.  No word on how many Carters will run for that seat.

Interesting.  Some argument to be made between these results and the LA-02 special that D's are structurally stronger in the NOLA area vs. the recent past.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Spectator on June 13, 2021, 10:57:28 AM
Kind of interesting to note. Oregon State Rep. Mike Nearman was expelled because he let armed far-right protestors into the State Capitol back in December. Oregon has got to be one of the most polarized states in the country. You have the far-left DSA types in Portland and the far-right militia types in the rural areas.


Apparently his district is a biden district according to a tweet I saw.


Whoever said that didn’t do their research. His seat is heavily red at 57-41 Trump.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on June 14, 2021, 06:52:32 AM
Yeah, Louisiana Dems have been strong this year so far. They've been outperforming in a ton of these special elections. Granted, low turnout - but they got 83% of the vote in a Biden 70% district.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on June 15, 2021, 06:40:22 PM
Very early returns in the Georgia special elections, from https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/109802/web.276935/#/summary.  Both seats were previously held by Republicans.

HD-34 (a suburban Cobb County district that voted for Trump by a few points):

David Blinkhorn (R) 273 9.34%
Sam Hensley Jr. (D) 579 19.81%
Chris Neill (L) 16 0.55%
Devan Seabaugh (R) 1179 40.34%
Priscilla G. Smith (D) 876 29.97%

If no one wins a majority tonight, there will be a runoff in four weeks.

HD-156 (solid R):

Wright Gres (D) 111 11.90%
Leesa Hagan (R) 660 70.74%
Wally Sapp (R) 162 17.36%



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on June 15, 2021, 07:10:56 PM
HD-34:

David Blinkhorn (R) 295 9.43%
Sam Hensley Jr. (D) 625 19.99%
Chris Neill (L) 18 0.58%
Devan Seabaugh (R) 1255 40.13%
Priscilla G. Smith (D) 934 29.87%


HD-156:

Wright Gres (D) 188 10.65%
Leesa Hagan (R) 934 52.92%
Wally Sapp (R) 643 36.43%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on June 15, 2021, 07:35:09 PM
HD-34 isn't updating frequently, but HD-156 is.  It's going to be close as to whether Hagan wins outright or the two Republicans go to a runoff.  At the moment she has a majority with exactly nothing to spare (2010 out of 4019)!

HD-34 (0% complete):

David Blinkhorn (R) 295 9.43%
Sam Hensley Jr. (D) 625 19.99%
Chris Neill (L) 18 0.58%
Devan Seabaugh (R) 1255 40.13%
Priscilla G. Smith (D) 934 29.87%


HD-156 (75% complete):

Wright Gres (D) 598 14.88%
Leesa Hagan (R) 2010 50.01%
Wally Sapp (R) 1411 35.11%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on June 15, 2021, 08:12:24 PM
Results continue to trickle in sloooowly.  I've got some other stuff to do before bedtime, so this will be my last update.  You can follow the SoS results at https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/109802/web.276935/#/summary.  I'll predict that HD-34 goes to a runoff between Seabaugh (R) and Smith (D), while HD-156 could be either an outright Hagan win or a runoff between the two R's.

HD-34 (0% complete):

David Blinkhorn (R) 383 9.76%
Sam Hensley Jr. (D) 755 19.25%
Chris Neill (L) 29 0.74%
Devan Seabaugh (R) 1654 42.16%
Priscilla G. Smith (D) 1102 28.09%


HD-156 (75% complete):

Wright Gres (D) 602 14.45%
Leesa Hagan (R) 2026 48.63%
Wally Sapp (R) 1538 36.92%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on June 15, 2021, 08:26:46 PM
Results continue to trickle in sloooowly.  I've got some other stuff to do before bedtime, so this will be my last update.  You can follow the SoS results at https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/109802/web.276935/#/summary.  I'll predict that HD-34 goes to a runoff between Seabaugh (R) and Smith (D), while HD-156 could be either an outright Hagan win or a runoff between the two R's.

HD-34 (0% complete):

David Blinkhorn (R) 383 9.76%
Sam Hensley Jr. (D) 755 19.25%
Chris Neill (L) 29 0.74%
Devan Seabaugh (R) 1654 42.16%
Priscilla G. Smith (D) 1102 28.09%


HD-156 (75% complete):

Wright Gres (D) 602 14.45%
Leesa Hagan (R) 2026 48.63%
Wally Sapp (R) 1538 36.92%
Where are you getting numbers?
Edit: It has come to my attention that I can’t read.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: VAR on June 15, 2021, 08:52:02 PM
HD-34 is 100% in. Seabaugh (R) and Smith (D) advance to a runoff. The two Republicans in the race won 59% of the vote, which is an improvement over Trump and Reeves' performance.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Devils30 on June 15, 2021, 09:14:22 PM
HD-34 is 100% in. Seabaugh (R) and Smith (D) advance to a runoff. The two Republicans in the race won 59% of the vote, which is an improvement over Trump and Reeves' performance.

Dems are doing awful in the multi-candidate races such as these, TX-6 and better in the higher profile races like NM-1, GA runoffs. That state Senate seat in Scranton was kind of in the middle but Ds are doing better in the regular D vs R one on one matchups. Dems will not win traditionally R districts in anything without trying.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LtNOWIS on June 16, 2021, 12:37:48 AM
HD-34 is 100% in. Seabaugh (R) and Smith (D) advance to a runoff. The two Republicans in the race won 59% of the vote, which is an improvement over Trump and Reeves' performance.

Dems are doing awful in the multi-candidate races such as these, TX-6 and better in the higher profile races like NM-1, GA runoffs. That state Senate seat in Scranton was kind of in the middle but Ds are doing better in the regular D vs R one on one matchups. Dems will not win traditionally R districts in anything without trying.

It makes sense. If you're a Republican, you have 2+ Republicans who have a real shot at winning. You have a real reason to turn out, because this determines who is actually going to represent you for a while. If you're a Democrat, you have not shot in a safely R seat, and there's no point in turning out to vote for some doomed person who's 100% certain to lose, either in round 1 or round 2.

So you have one party having an actually important election, and one party having the symbolic walkover election in a safe seat, at the same time. From what I recall we've seen the same thing in Louisiana-style special elections in safe blue seats.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on June 16, 2021, 05:37:31 AM
Well HD-34 is certainly a disappointing result for Dems. Hopefully the one-on-one is better, but Rep +19 in a district Trump won by a few is horrific. Hopefully Dems actually try in the runoff.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on June 27, 2021, 03:13:50 PM
2nd-term Republican lawmaker will resign his seat next month (https://bangordailynews.com/2021/06/24/politics/2nd-term-republican-lawmaker-will-resign-his-seat-next-month/)

Fecteau represents Maine House District 86, part of Augusta.  The other side of the Kennebec River from where I live is in that district.

There will almost certainly be a special election this year for the seat, on (odd-year) "Election Day" (November 2) or earlier.  Probably November 2, although as there will be a fall special session to tackle redistricting at least (who knows what other big issues might come up), I wouldn't 100% rule out it being called earlier.  There was a special State House election in like September 2011 with the justification being a special session to tackle redistricting, but that was when LePage was Governor.  For State House vacancies (unlike State Senate vacancies) the Governor can't act to fill a vacancy until the municipal officers make some proclamation or whatnot informing the Governor of the need to fill a vacancy.  A State Rep. from Westbrook died on November 12, 2019, and a State Rep. from Brewer died on December 19, 2019, but a special election ended up being held in early 2020 in Brewer (on March 3, the date of Maine's Presidential Primary) but not in Westbrook (where the seat went unfilled until the person elected for the new term in November 3, 2020 took office at the beginning of that term on December 2, 2020).  A paragraph (https://www.maine.gov/sos/news/2020/specialelecthd128.html) (3rd paragraph after the headline) was added to the public notice of the Brewer special election by Secretary of State's Office that seemed to me like classic CYA.  Having watched past City Council discussion regarding vacancies (although these were for municipal positions, City Council or School Board), I imagine the Augusta City Council won't proclaim a vacancy if they're not sure it will be on November 3, sparing the city the cost of a special standalone election.  They may delay their "proclamation" until it wouldn't make any sense to schedule the election before November 2 (like the earliest possible Tuesday to hold it was only being 2 or 3 weeks prior).  I'm an officer (Treasurer) of the Augusta Democratic Committee (I'm not quite sure what the actual name is, like if and where "City" or "Municipal" is in there), so I'll be involved in helping the Democratic nominee in the special election, whenever it is.

This district (or its main predecessor, the one entirely on the west side of Augusta and including the northwest corner of the city) was represented by a Democrat from the 1978 election (before 1978, most of Augusta (or all of it before 1974) was in a multi-member State House district) to the 1994 election, when the Democrat elected in 1978 was unseated (the district had gained some people and lost a smaller number of people (the equivalent of three blocks, largely non-residential), but the bigger factor was probably the Republican wave that year).  That Republican termed out in 2002 and was replaced by a Democrat who was reelected in a slightly expanded district in 2004.  Democrats held open seats in 2006 and 2010 (a Democrat was unopposed in 2008 after the Republicans nominated a guy who had done some major trolling in the past that came to light after they nominated him to fill a post-primary hole, and then basically told their own candidate to withdraw so Democrats couldn't campaign on this candidate's past), but when Rep. Maeghan Maloney gave up her seat in 2012 to run successfully for Kennebec-Somerset DA, Republican Matt Pouliot, who was a post-primary replacement, defeated 2006-2010 Rep. Patsy Crockett, who herself was a post-primary replacement but it's not the same when you're a recent incumbent.  Pouliot was reelected 2 to 1 in the somewhat altered district in 2014 even though I'd heard the changes to the district made it more Democratic, and was unopposed in 2016.  Justin Fecteau (R), the current Rep. who is resigning as of the end of July 4 (eccentric much?), while seemingly a "some dude" in 2018, defeated an At-Large city councilor by a 2.13% that year and was reelected by 13.63% in 2020 (both two-way races, and both not counting blanks).

The Democratic city councilor (although local elections are officially nonpartisan in most municipalities in Maine and really seem to function that way in many of them, including Augusta) who narrowly lost in 2018 now lives in Saco.  There are a number of possible Democratic candidates I can think of, from the recent losers in that district to the guy who served from 1978 to 1994 who's kind of an "elder statesman" now, to Maine's first openly lesbian State Senator (from a neighboring district) who later moved to Augusta and served a term on the City Council.  One person I thought of as a promising candidate is apparently a "hard No."  On the Republican side, Councilor Heather Pouliot, wife of Sen. (former Rep.) Matt Pouliot, seems like a likely candidate and could probably clear the field in her party if she ran.  If she didn't run, there's a former city councilor (two different stints serving partial terms following vacancies) who would be formidable.  But serving in the Maine Legislature is very different from being on the City Council (only part-time pay with full-time daytime work during much of the sessions, although the benefits are decent), so a lot of the people I'm thinking of might not be able to afford to run.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on June 29, 2021, 10:24:29 PM
Results from a saftley democratic AD-18 california district.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on July 04, 2021, 12:07:12 PM
Results from a saftley democratic AD-18 california district.

Does anyone know the party affiliation of the various candidates?  Was there an R (or Independent, Green, or Peace & Freedom, etc.) candidate in there?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: DINGO Joe on July 05, 2021, 01:36:22 AM
All D except Slauson-R and Britton-NP


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on July 13, 2021, 07:30:53 AM
The runoff in Georgia HD-34 between Devan Seabaugh (R) and Priscilla Smith (D) is today.  Here's a local article:

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-the-little-election-with-big-names-behind-it/VKU2F32ACNBULB7YOKI62KS3RY/

The district is in suburban Cobb County and is R-leaning (Trump +4 IIRC) so I expect Seabaugh to win, but an upset isn't completely out of the question.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Drew on July 13, 2021, 07:44:56 AM
WI has a special today for an Assembly seat which includes a portion of Dane along with mostly conservative rural areas.

The special election in AD-37 happens today.  It was 56-41 R in 2020, which was a D swing from 62-38 R in 2016 (the 2018 race was uncontested as the D was kicked off the ballot).  The district includes a portion of Dane County including DeForest, Columbia County (only Columbus), and portions of Jefferson and Dodge.  The Dem will have to run it up in Dane and Columbia in order to have any chance at an upset.  There is an ideologically conservative independent candidate from DeForest who got 3% in 2020 and is running again.  The D and R are both from Columbus.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: walleye26 on July 13, 2021, 11:44:52 AM
Here’s the local article on the WI assembly race:
 https://www.channel3000.com/special-election-to-fill-wisconsin-assembly-vacancy/ (https://www.channel3000.com/special-election-to-fill-wisconsin-assembly-vacancy/)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on July 13, 2021, 06:27:31 PM
I had forgotten that in addition to HD-34, the HD-156 runoff is also today.  It's a solid R district and the contestants are Leesa Hagan and Wally Sapp, both Republicans.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on July 13, 2021, 06:30:09 PM
Any decent people to follow on twitter for state level races like this? Seems like hardly any of the usual election followers are talking about results


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on July 13, 2021, 06:50:34 PM
Any decent people to follow on twitter for state level races like this? Seems like hardly any of the usual election followers are talking about results

IMO the two best Georgia political reporters on Twitter are Greg Bluestein of the AJC (@bluestein) and Stephen Fowler of Georgia Public Broadcasting (@stphnfwlr), but I haven't seen either of them tweet anything about tonight's runoffs.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on July 13, 2021, 06:51:52 PM
Georgia results here (none yet): https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/109978/web.276935/#/summary


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on July 13, 2021, 07:18:53 PM
In person early vote just dropped in hd34



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Nyvin on July 13, 2021, 07:40:40 PM
In person early vote just dropped in hd34



Welp, doesn't look like any upset is happening here tonight.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on July 13, 2021, 07:43:10 PM
way too early.

this is just in person early vote, which Rs do ok in.

Absentee vote and eday vote still out.

Dems in georgia mainly vote absentee by mail.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on July 13, 2021, 08:20:46 PM
Big vote dump in HD34

Rep 3485
Dem 2549


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on July 13, 2021, 08:26:27 PM
How Dem are absentees expected to be?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on July 13, 2021, 08:29:18 PM

Not as much as would be needed.  I'd say Seabaugh is very very very likely to win at this point.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on July 13, 2021, 08:35:26 PM

Not as much as would be needed.  I'd say Seabaugh is very very very likely to win at this point.

Weirdly enough, about 220 absentees have been counted and Seabaugh won them


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Drew on July 13, 2021, 08:42:36 PM
WI has a special today for an Assembly seat which includes a portion of Dane along with mostly conservative rural areas.

The special election in AD-37 happens today.  It was 56-41 R in 2020, which was a D swing from 62-38 R in 2016 (the 2018 race was uncontested as the D was kicked off the ballot).  The district includes a portion of Dane County including DeForest, Columbia County (only Columbus), and portions of Jefferson and Dodge.  The Dem will have to run it up in Dane and Columbia in order to have any chance at an upset.  There is an ideologically conservative independent candidate from DeForest who got 3% in 2020 and is running again.  The D and R are both from Columbus.

Penterman (R) leading Adams (D) roughly 50-48 with all of Dane/Columbia/Dodge reporting.  It's only the strongly R Jefferson remaining.  There won't be an upset, but we'll see what the final margin looks like.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on July 13, 2021, 09:02:37 PM
Not sure what the absentee dump will do to the margin, but the R is up 63-37 in HD34 with about 9k total votes reporting.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: walleye26 on July 13, 2021, 09:13:46 PM
WI has a special today for an Assembly seat which includes a portion of Dane along with mostly conservative rural areas.

The special election in AD-37 happens today.  It was 56-41 R in 2020, which was a D swing from 62-38 R in 2016 (the 2018 race was uncontested as the D was kicked off the ballot).  The district includes a portion of Dane County including DeForest, Columbia County (only Columbus), and portions of Jefferson and Dodge.  The Dem will have to run it up in Dane and Columbia in order to have any chance at an upset.  There is an ideologically conservative independent candidate from DeForest who got 3% in 2020 and is running again.  The D and R are both from Columbus.

Penterman (R) leading Adams (D) roughly 50-48 with all of Dane/Columbia/Dodge reporting.  It's only the strongly R Jefferson remaining.  There won't be an upset, but we'll see what the final margin looks like.

I just checked Jefferson County’s website, and Penterman has 1,089 votes to Adams (D) 675, with one small precinct in Watertown still out. The two-person percentage should be about 55-45 when all said and done. Adams also won Waterloo 149-113, which I believe Trump won.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on July 13, 2021, 09:21:46 PM
Ok….so it appears 100% of vote is in in HD34

The rep won by 26 points

What the hell is that about?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Drew on July 13, 2021, 09:25:05 PM
WI has a special today for an Assembly seat which includes a portion of Dane along with mostly conservative rural areas.

The special election in AD-37 happens today.  It was 56-41 R in 2020, which was a D swing from 62-38 R in 2016 (the 2018 race was uncontested as the D was kicked off the ballot).  The district includes a portion of Dane County including DeForest, Columbia County (only Columbus), and portions of Jefferson and Dodge.  The Dem will have to run it up in Dane and Columbia in order to have any chance at an upset.  There is an ideologically conservative independent candidate from DeForest who got 3% in 2020 and is running again.  The D and R are both from Columbus.

Penterman (R) leading Adams (D) roughly 50-48 with all of Dane/Columbia/Dodge reporting.  It's only the strongly R Jefferson remaining.  There won't be an upset, but we'll see what the final margin looks like.

I just checked Jefferson County’s website, and Penterman has 1,089 votes to Adams (D) 675, with one small precinct in Watertown still out. The two-person percentage should be about 55-45 when all said and done. Adams also won Waterloo 149-113, which I believe Trump won.

Jefferson all in now, looks like 54-44 R overall.  So a bit of an overperformance for D's despite the loss.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: AncestralDemocrat. on July 13, 2021, 09:30:23 PM
Not sure what the absentee dump will do to the margin, but the R is up 63-37 in HD34 with about 9k total votes reporting.
Quite a strong result in what was a 3.9+ Trump district..


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on July 13, 2021, 09:47:51 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Annatar on July 14, 2021, 12:36:05 AM
Here are the results of the 4 special elections vs 2020, I have rounded to the nearest full number with the change in margin in brackets, according to DDHQ all the votes are in.

GA HD-34: Trump +4, R+26 (+22)
AL SD-34: Trump+42, R+61 (+19)
AL HD-73: Trump+33, R+50 (+17)
WI SD-37: Trump +11, R+10 (-1)

Overall Republicans ran significantly ahead of Trump on average although with variation with SD-37 in WI voting like 2020.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on July 14, 2021, 12:42:33 AM
Here are the results of the 4 special elections vs 2020, I have rounded to the nearest full number with the change in margin in brackets, according to DDHQ all the votes are in.

GA HD-34: Trump +4, R+26 (+22)
AL SD-34: Trump+42, R+61 (+19)
AL HD-73: Trump+33, R+50 (+17)
WI SD-37: Trump +11, R+10 (-1)

Overall Republicans ran significantly ahead of Trump on average although with variation with SD-37 in WI voting like 2020.

low black turnout in GA and AL?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on July 14, 2021, 05:38:26 AM
WTF happened in HD-34? R+26 in a Trump +4 district? Come on.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MRS DONNA SHALALA on July 14, 2021, 09:45:42 AM
WTF happened in HD-34? R+26 in a Trump +4 district? Come on.

Students aren't at Kennesaw State right now which was a significant source of the district's Dem electorate.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on July 14, 2021, 11:04:30 AM
WTF happened in HD-34? R+26 in a Trump +4 district? Come on.

Students aren't at Kennesaw State right now which was a significant source of the district's Dem electorate.

What percent of KSU students are registered to vote in HD34 rather than their home?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MRS DONNA SHALALA on July 14, 2021, 11:55:41 AM
WTF happened in HD-34? R+26 in a Trump +4 district? Come on.

Students aren't at Kennesaw State right now which was a significant source of the district's Dem electorate.

What percent of KSU students are registered to vote in HD34 rather than their home?

No idea, but it's a big school and the practice isn't uncommon for on-campus students (I was registered at my dorm address many moons ago). If even 5% of the 41000 enrolled students were registered in HD34, it'd be enough to significantly swing this election.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on July 14, 2021, 12:12:59 PM
WTF happened in HD-34? R+26 in a Trump +4 district? Come on.

Students aren't at Kennesaw State right now which was a significant source of the district's Dem electorate.

What percent of KSU students are registered to vote in HD34 rather than their home?

No idea, but it's a big school and the practice isn't uncommon for on-campus students (I was registered at my dorm address many moons ago). If even 5% of the 41000 enrolled students were registered in HD34, it'd be enough to significantly swing this election.

I just find it so hard to believe one university being out of school is the difference between 26 point win and a 4 point win


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on July 14, 2021, 01:11:25 PM
WTF happened in HD-34? R+26 in a Trump +4 district? Come on.

Students aren't at Kennesaw State right now which was a significant source of the district's Dem electorate.

What percent of KSU students are registered to vote in HD34 rather than their home?

No idea, but it's a big school and the practice isn't uncommon for on-campus students (I was registered at my dorm address many moons ago). If even 5% of the 41000 enrolled students were registered in HD34, it'd be enough to significantly swing this election.

I just find it so hard to believe one university being out of school is the difference between 26 point win and a 4 point win

It's not implausible given the size of the student population and how low-turnout the special election was.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: mds32 on July 25, 2021, 07:33:42 PM
The Aug. 17th CT-SD-36 special will be one to watch. With the Dem-leaning Independent candidate in the race the Republicans have a serious shot at retaking this previously Republican seat. Along with the Republican advantage we've seen in CT special elections the seat is ripe for a Republican flip.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on July 25, 2021, 07:40:38 PM
The Aug. 17th CT-SD-36 special will be one to watch. With the Dem-leaning Independent candidate in the race the Republicans have a serious shot at retaking this previously Republican seat. Along with the Republican advantage we've seen in CT special elections the seat is ripe for a Republican flip.

That's in Greenwich right? I actually really like the Republican who's running there. He ran last year and actually got pretty close even as Biden carried the district by a solid amount.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: mds32 on August 09, 2021, 08:53:52 AM
The Aug. 17th CT-SD-36 special will be one to watch. With the Dem-leaning Independent candidate in the race the Republicans have a serious shot at retaking this previously Republican seat. Along with the Republican advantage we've seen in CT special elections the seat is ripe for a Republican flip.

That's in Greenwich right? I actually really like the Republican who's running there. He ran last year and actually got pretty close even as Biden carried the district by a solid amount.

Yes in fact the Republican recently won the endorsement of the Greenwich and Stamford police unions. This race seems to be a clear toss-up.

https://www.greenwichtime.com/elections/article/Republican-Fazio-gets-endorsement-of-police-union-16361472.php


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on August 09, 2021, 09:55:07 AM
The Aug. 17th CT-SD-36 special will be one to watch. With the Dem-leaning Independent candidate in the race the Republicans have a serious shot at retaking this previously Republican seat. Along with the Republican advantage we've seen in CT special elections the seat is ripe for a Republican flip.
That's my uncle's district, they've natrualized recently and he's a rich investment bankers. He seemed to be a mostly disinterested obama voter with his wife being a Romney supporter back in 2012 who complained about Obama giving people welfare and bussing people to the poll but got turned off hard by Trump and jumped into the #resist camp. They both probably voted federarly straight-ticket democrat in 2018 and 2020 but am not sure how they are going to vote on a state level.

I should ask him abou it.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on August 09, 2021, 10:14:40 AM
The Aug. 17th CT-SD-36 special will be one to watch. With the Dem-leaning Independent candidate in the race the Republicans have a serious shot at retaking this previously Republican seat. Along with the Republican advantage we've seen in CT special elections the seat is ripe for a Republican flip.

That's in Greenwich right? I actually really like the Republican who's running there. He ran last year and actually got pretty close even as Biden carried the district by a solid amount.

Yes in fact the Republican recently won the endorsement of the Greenwich and Stamford police unions. This race seems to be a clear toss-up.

https://www.greenwichtime.com/elections/article/Republican-Fazio-gets-endorsement-of-police-union-16361472.php

Is it really a surprise a Republican got the endorsement of a police union though?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: mds32 on August 09, 2021, 10:24:45 PM
The Aug. 17th CT-SD-36 special will be one to watch. With the Dem-leaning Independent candidate in the race the Republicans have a serious shot at retaking this previously Republican seat. Along with the Republican advantage we've seen in CT special elections the seat is ripe for a Republican flip.

That's in Greenwich right? I actually really like the Republican who's running there. He ran last year and actually got pretty close even as Biden carried the district by a solid amount.

Yes in fact the Republican recently won the endorsement of the Greenwich and Stamford police unions. This race seems to be a clear toss-up.

https://www.greenwichtime.com/elections/article/Republican-Fazio-gets-endorsement-of-police-union-16361472.php

Is it really a surprise a Republican got the endorsement of a police union though?

Local elections are fickle in union states particularly so I don't know.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: mds32 on August 15, 2021, 08:15:39 PM
At this point I am thinking Fazio (R) pulls off the win on Tuesday by two points. Not an earthshattering win but the Republicans will flip the seat. The Republican overperformance in CT Special Elections (similar to OK Democrats), the Independent (D) in the race, the previous 2020 Republican candidate, and with what's going on right now make me think that CT-SD-36 will be the first special election flip of the year.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on August 17, 2021, 08:11:16 PM
Fazio just won.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: SnowLabrador on August 17, 2021, 08:40:49 PM
Okay, so what does this mean for 2022? Red wave?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on August 17, 2021, 08:42:05 PM
Okay, so what does this mean for 2022? Red wave?

No

Result was similar to 2020


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Devils30 on August 17, 2021, 09:16:56 PM
This district is like the inverse of ancestral Dems in southern WV.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: crazy jimmie on August 18, 2021, 02:55:50 AM
Uh... that connecticut result is not exactly proving my theory that college whites will switch en masse to the GOP now..

The Democrats barely won that area in 2018 and 2020 down ballot and now barely lost in in a far worse environment for Democrats.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on August 18, 2021, 09:45:48 AM
Uh... that connecticut result is not exactly proving my theory that college whites will switch en masse to the GOP now..

The Democrats barely won that area in 2018 and 2020 down ballot and now barely lost in in a far worse environment for Democrats.

and the Indie candidate was also a defacto Dem, wasn't he?

This essentially had the same result as 2020.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gass3268 on August 18, 2021, 10:11:44 AM
Still a loss and disappointing, but this was actually a better result for the Democrat than I thought it would be. For whatever reason Dems struggle in CT special elections, even happened during the Trump years.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on August 18, 2021, 10:14:41 AM
Still a loss and disappointing, but this was actually a better result for the Democrat than I thought it would be. For whatever reason Dems struggle in CT special elections, even happened during the Trump years.

"Ancestral" party infrastructure can really make a difference in special elections.  See also: Oklahoma Dems.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on August 18, 2021, 11:36:30 AM
Still a loss and disappointing, but this was actually a better result for the Democrat than I thought it would be. For whatever reason Dems struggle in CT special elections, even happened during the Trump years.

Yeah, I wouldn't even count this as struggling either. I mean, Biden did win by 20, but downballot it's been much redder, so for the Dem to only lose by 2 (with an indie D spoiler) in a Biden off-year, I'd say this is not bad at all


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on August 19, 2021, 01:51:11 PM
A data point of starting to emerge:

The gop is overperforming their 2020 margins by 3.5 pts right now

It’ suggests the house is a total toss up.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on August 21, 2021, 05:24:59 PM
A data point of starting to emerge:

The gop is overperforming their 2020 margins by 3.5 pts right now

It’ suggests the house is a total toss up.


It sounds more like safe R to me.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Boobs on September 07, 2021, 07:08:06 PM


Dems flip a Biden +3, Romney/McCain+bajillion state house seat in Bedford.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Devils30 on September 07, 2021, 08:10:11 PM


Dems flip a Biden +3, Romney/McCain+bajillion state house seat in Bedford.

Romney won this by 26 in 2012! These results are pretty meaningless but still a good sign for Dems to win an off-year in an ancestrally R seat like this.

Not really too relevant but not  terribly consistent with Biden at 44/54 in NH either.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lief 🗽 on September 07, 2021, 10:14:44 PM
A great result, and a strong vindication by the voters of President Biden's decision to withdraw from Afghanistan.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on September 08, 2021, 05:22:32 AM
Yeah, it's a small special election but given that its a college educated town that votes R in local elections (and at the R prez level pre-Biden), doesn't really scream "Biden is down -10% in approval in NH!"


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on September 08, 2021, 09:08:15 PM

Huge chance the democrats loose this seat.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Devils30 on September 10, 2021, 08:44:38 PM
Yeah, it's a small special election but given that its a college educated town that votes R in local elections (and at the R prez level pre-Biden), doesn't really scream "Biden is down -10% in approval in NH!"

Bedford voted R in the NH-1 House election last fall 50-49%. If Dems can start winning these types of places down ballot more it will help a lot in the House.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Person Man on September 11, 2021, 06:21:22 PM
It looks like on the whole, Democrats are holding their own and will probably only narrowly lose by an amount where they can win back in 2024.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Devils30 on September 12, 2021, 02:26:16 PM
It looks like on the whole, Democrats are holding their own and will probably only narrowly lose by an amount where they can win back in 2024.

Pappas only won this town by 0.6 in 2018 FWIW also.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Pollster on September 14, 2021, 09:59:32 AM
Special election happening tonight in Iowa HD-37, district is just north of Des Moines entirely within Polk county. Went from 55/43 Romney to 51/42 Trump to 50/48 Trump. Incumbent Republican John Landon died in July. He defeated Dem Andrea Phillips (who is the Dem nominee in the special) 53/47 in 2020 and by 57/43 in 2016. He defeated a different Dem candidate 52/48 in 2018.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gass3268 on September 14, 2021, 01:21:44 PM
Special election happening tonight in Iowa HD-37, district is just north of Des Moines entirely within Polk county. Went from 55/43 Romney to 51/42 Trump to 50/48 Trump. Incumbent Republican John Landon died in July. He defeated Dem Andrea Phillips (who is the Dem nominee in the special) 53/47 in 2020 and by 57/43 in 2016. He defeated a different Dem candidate 52/48 in 2018.

Gonna guess the Republican wins by 5.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on September 14, 2021, 01:23:11 PM
is this a suburban district?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on September 14, 2021, 01:24:21 PM

Yes. A very fast-growing one, at that.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on September 14, 2021, 03:58:24 PM
R+9


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 14, 2021, 06:38:41 PM
BTW, the Dem in the Tennessee race was accused of sexual assualt today and resigned as chair of Hamilton county Democrats. Its in the local news. So don't be surprised if there is a exceptionally strong R overperformance there when compared to past elections.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 14, 2021, 08:31:27 PM
100% now reporting in IA HD-37:

Mike Bousselot GOP    5,920    51.64%
Andrea Phillips DEM    5,543    48.36%

Decision Desk has called it for Bousselot.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Pollster on September 14, 2021, 08:32:59 PM
With 12/12 precincts reporting according to the Polk county auditor (https://auditor.polkcountyiowa.gov/Election/election_Summary.asp?election_date=20210914), Republican Mike Bousselot appears to have won 52/48, the same margin by which the Republican won this seat in 2018, and a modest D improvement over 2020's result at the state house level.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on September 14, 2021, 08:33:18 PM
Trends are real I guess. Maybe 2022 will be a 2020/2018 in the suburbs but a 2016 or worse everywhere else.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on September 14, 2021, 08:33:39 PM
Hmmm, slight dem overperformance from 2020.

not much to read into.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 14, 2021, 08:34:03 PM
Trends are real I guess. Maybe 2022 will be a 2020/2018 in the suburbs but a 2016 or worse everywhere else.

Or maybe one shouldn’t read this much into a single special election with very low turnout.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on September 14, 2021, 08:34:42 PM
Trends are real I guess. Maybe 2022 will be a 2020/2018 in the suburbs but a 2016 or worse everywhere else.

Or maybe one shouldn’t read this much into single special elections with very low turnout.
Probably but that’s no fun.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on September 14, 2021, 08:37:05 PM
The problem with analyzing elections is that IN REAL TIME areas trend one way or another.

2020 election was almost a year ago.

It isn't out of the question that a lot of people have moved to this iowa district since then and they are liberal.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on September 14, 2021, 08:38:14 PM
Trends are real I guess. Maybe 2022 will be a 2020/2018 in the suburbs but a 2016 or worse everywhere else.

Or maybe one shouldn’t read this much into a single special election with very low turnout.
Well individual races shouldn't be read into, but one bright spot for democrats is that there's no real trend of underperformance in state house races like the republicans had in 2017 before the 2018 blue wave.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Devils30 on September 14, 2021, 08:41:32 PM
Trends are real I guess. Maybe 2022 will be a 2020/2018 in the suburbs but a 2016 or worse everywhere else.

That’s a pretty weak win for GOP. If trends continue it might help Rs with seats like PA-8, WI-3 but screw them over in Georgia, Arizona and metro Philly, Milwaukee. I wonder if Dem $ is best going to offensive opportunities in Cali, that along with new NY maps seem best chance.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MT Treasurer on September 14, 2021, 08:45:09 PM
Well individual races shouldn't be read into, but one bright spot for democrats is that there's no real trend of underperformance in state house races like the republicans had in 2017 before the 2018 blue wave.

Can’t emphasize enough that that also has a lot do with the Democratic base becoming increasingly affluent and high-propensity. Even larger patterns in these state legislative elections are only worth cautiously reading into if there’s no large disparity in the turnout of the two parties (especially relative to what we can expect from a regular November election).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Devils30 on September 14, 2021, 08:50:26 PM
Well individual races shouldn't be read into, but one bright spot for democrats is that there's no real trend of underperformance in state house races like the republicans had in 2017 before the 2018 blue wave.

Can’t emphasize enough that that also has a lot do with the Democratic base becoming increasingly affluent and high-propensity. Even larger patterns in these state legislative elections are only worth cautiously reading into if there’s no large disparity in the turnout of the two parties (especially relative to what we can expect from a regular November election).

Republicans at some point should ditch the tax cuts for the rich and be a real working class party. The right politician could pull it off, but would need to ditch the white nationalism without ditching social conservatism.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on September 15, 2021, 07:34:05 AM
Hmmm, slight dem overperformance from 2020.

not much to read into.

It's funny how every time a Dem does better than expected, it's "not much to read into" but every time they do worse than expected it's "DEMS IN DISARRAY!!!!"

I'm honestly shocked it was basically the same result as 2020 Prez and actually better for Dems than the 2020 house race. Looks like the suburban backlash against Reps is still real.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 15, 2021, 07:52:25 AM
In the meantime...



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Person Man on September 27, 2021, 07:40:21 AM
Trends are real I guess. Maybe 2022 will be a 2020/2018 in the suburbs but a 2016 or worse everywhere else.

Or maybe one shouldn’t read this much into single special elections with very low turnout.
Probably but that’s no fun.

So basically an election that looks a lot like a reverse of 2020 where an unpopular incumbent is beaten, but where the victory of Pyrrhic because of a new and underappreciated openness to vote differently within neglected parts of the challenger's base.

In 2020, Biden was supposed to sweep the coastal south and dominate down-ballot only to barely win because a lot of people who Republicans relied on not showing did show up to vote for them. In 2022 and 2024 a lot of people Republicans think will come out in droves for them, come out for Democrats instead. The result will be a weak R congress that either get overturned in a D reelection or is never "complete" until there is a R trifecta.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on September 28, 2021, 10:54:20 PM
big yikes for dems out of the HD118 special election jungle in texas tonight

gop vote share: 50.34%
dem vote share: 49.66%

biden won this place by 15 points in 2020


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on September 28, 2021, 10:59:58 PM
It seems like Democrats consistently underperform in Texas specials.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 29, 2021, 01:16:13 PM
Why do Democrats always do horribly in special elections in Texas, no matter what the national environment is?
They lost what looked to be an easy seat even in 2018.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on October 12, 2021, 03:33:28 PM
There is an iowa special election today

Hd29


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: BoiseBoy on October 12, 2021, 03:42:45 PM
There is an iowa special election today

Hd29
This seat went to Breckenridge (D) by 3.1 in 2020, after a 17.6 DEM win in 2018. I would not expect them to hold onto this seat. It went Trump +12.3 to Trump +15.9.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on October 12, 2021, 08:43:29 PM
Republican got 60% of the vote



Yikes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on October 12, 2021, 08:46:57 PM
This country deserves to fail.
Every single American deserves what is coming, including all of us.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Devils30 on October 12, 2021, 08:51:16 PM
It's just one piece of the puzzle. But the idea that Wisconsin is going red, Georgia blue seems strengthened by 2021 elections. IA is a bad omen for Ds in WI but are states like MI, PA suburban enough to avoid a Dem meltdown?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: S019 on October 12, 2021, 08:53:02 PM
This was a Trump+16 seat, Dems did not have a chance here once the incumbent retired.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: SnowLabrador on October 12, 2021, 09:16:42 PM
I predict the Genocidal Obstructionist Pricks will win the GCB by at least 5 points.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: SnowLabrador on October 12, 2021, 09:23:09 PM
This was a Trump+16 seat, Dems did not have a chance here once the incumbent retired.

Yeah, but they literally lost by 20 points when it was seen as just Tilt R. That's not a good sign for them.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Devils30 on October 12, 2021, 09:32:52 PM
This was a Trump+16 seat, Dems did not have a chance here once the incumbent retired.

Special election themes so far:

Dems holding their own in suburbs..they got Biden numbers in a couple in NH and IA a month ago and beat their 2020 state rep numbers in both. See also NM-1.

GOP continuing to improve in small towns, see tonight in IA. Also improved a bit with rural Hispanics in Cali while not doing anything special with urban ones in CA or NM-1.

Wwc areas that are more urban are inconclusive. Dems did well in the Scranton state senate election but that’s such a small sample.

It’s 2016-20 trends continued.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Spectator on October 12, 2021, 09:34:05 PM
This was a Trump+16 seat, Dems did not have a chance here once the incumbent retired.

Yeah, but they literally lost by 20 points when it was seen as just Tilt R. That's not a good sign for them.

Freudian slip?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Devils30 on October 12, 2021, 09:35:01 PM
This was a Trump+16 seat, Dems did not have a chance here once the incumbent retired.

Yeah, but they literally lost by 20 points when it was seen as just Tilt R. That's not a good sign for them.

Not a single Dem in the House is in a district greater than Trump +6. And zero Trump state Dems are on the 2022 Senate ballot. This seat was going to flip period but rurals keep trending R.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: UncleSam on October 13, 2021, 04:24:14 AM
I wouldn’t say a D underperformance of four points is that bad, but it does indicate that whatever remaining ancestral D strength remained in this area downballot is gone. Doesn’t bode well for WI-3, WI-Sen, anything in IA ever, or even possibly some stuff in MN come 2022.

I don’t think this says much about the state of things outside this region, however, and shouldn’t be extrapolated too much - it’s only a few thousand votes.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 13, 2021, 05:10:33 AM
This was a Trump+16 seat, Dems did not have a chance here once the incumbent retired.

It’s still hilarious because those are the 'low-propensity Republicans' Abby Finkenauer/(IA) Democrats are counting on to say home in 2022 "without Trump on the ballot" (as if IA's Republican trend totally doesn’t predate Trump or any other R nominee wouldn’t have easily won the state or whatever).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Devils30 on October 13, 2021, 08:07:38 AM
I wouldn’t say a D underperformance of four points is that bad, but it does indicate that whatever remaining ancestral D strength remained in this area downballot is gone. Doesn’t bode well for WI-3, WI-Sen, anything in IA ever, or even possibly some stuff in MN come 2022.

I don’t think this says much about the state of things outside this region, however, and shouldn’t be extrapolated too much - it’s only a few thousand votes.

For WI the Dems are better asking the court for another Milwaukee area D seat rather than saving the current version of WI-3.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on October 13, 2021, 09:44:00 AM
If I ever had a dictatorship, first thing I would do is end corn subsidies. The farmers want conservative politics? They can get that.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skunk on October 13, 2021, 10:56:12 AM
This country deserves to fail.
Every single American deserves what is coming, including all of us.
Please go outside. A Democrat losing some random special election in Iowa is not going to cause the downfall of America.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: S019 on October 13, 2021, 01:30:54 PM
This was a Trump+16 seat, Dems did not have a chance here once the incumbent retired.

It’s still hilarious because those are the 'low-propensity Republicans' Abby Finkenauer/(IA) Democrats are counting on to say home in 2022 "without Trump on the ballot" (as if IA's Republican trend totally doesn’t predate Trump or any other R nominee wouldn’t have easily won the state or whatever).

Oh I agree, the "low propensity Republicans" stuff was always a meme, if anything there'll be complacent "low propensity" Democrats who will stay home, because they don't feel a need to vote (this happened to Dems in 2010 and 2014, and happened to the GOP in 2018).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 14, 2021, 12:07:12 PM
Oh I agree, the "low propensity Republicans" stuff was always a meme, if anything there'll be complacent "low propensity" Democrats who will stay home, because they don't feel a need to vote (this happened to Dems in 2010 and 2014, and happened to the GOP in 2018).

I’m not entirely sold on any "low-propensity Democrats" narrative either. I feel like high-turnout midterm elections will increasingly be the rule rather than exception and both the R base and D base will be fairly engaged going into 2022, which will seriously reduce potential for R gains in rapidly D-trending areas but also make both the Senate and the House something of an uphill battle for Democrats. While many overstate how high-propensity the D base has become (and rule out the possibility of even slight R gains with more reliable/suburban/college-educated voters, many of whom are still swing voters and not Democrats) and/or exaggerate how "unreliable" the D base was in 2010 and 2014 (or 2013, as McAuliffe's win that year illustrates), the overall CW that the D base has become more reliable even in off-year/midterm elections is probably true, and I’d argue that many of the high-profile special elections (NM-1, GA runoffs, less so CA because of the all-mail system) have confirmed this. However, the flip side of this is that we also haven’t seen Republicans lose ground (compared to 2020) in most Biden-era special elections, and there’s every reason to believe that the November elections will see higher turnout than the special elections.

My issue was more that the "low-propensity Republicans/Trumpists" theory was particularly ludicrous when applied to the analysis of Iowa elections given that Ernst actually did better in 2014 than 2020 (that state swung more sharply to the right than any other Obama state/swing state in 2014), and that was without Trump being a factor in a year when Democrats held up very well in other D-leaning states at the federal level. This 'low-propensity Trump voters' narrative also completely downplays a host of other factors which would more than compensate for a modest drop-off in "Trumpist turnout" in most cases (party out of the White House being more engaged than when they are in control of the White House, state's general rightward shift continuing unabated, the serious decline in Biden's approval numbers, the probability of slight R gains in suburban areas similar to D gains in non-college-educated areas in 2018 vs. 2016, etc.). Also, the vast majority of Trump 2020 voters in IA (and elsewhere) aren’t "Trumpists" so much as they are Republicans, i.e., they’re largely loyal to Trump but also voted for Romney in 2012.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ChineseConservative on October 14, 2021, 12:17:59 PM
If I ever had a dictatorship, first thing I would do is end corn subsidies. The farmers want conservative politics? They can get that.

This would amount to a regressive benefit that hurts poorer Americans, as it would only exacerbate the problem of poorer Americans spending a larger percentage of their income on groceries.

Keep the farm subsidies that benefit the GOP farmers and in turn benefit low income Democrat voters. win win.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kamala’s side hoe on October 16, 2021, 01:46:54 AM
If I ever had a dictatorship, first thing I would do is end corn subsidies. The farmers want conservative politics? They can get that.

This would amount to a regressive benefit that hurts poorer Americans, as it would only exacerbate the problem of poorer Americans spending a larger percentage of their income on groceries.

Keep the farm subsidies that benefit the GOP farmers and in turn benefit low income Democrat voters. win win.

The left-wing/liberaltarian argument against corn subsidies is that they are used to grow excess corn that is used to produce high fructose corn syrup (HFCS), which is added to many cheap processed foods and is bad for you if you eat too much of it (like if you are lower income and live in a food desert). HFCS has been linked to higher rates of diabetes and obesity, causing worse health outcomes and a public health burden.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: NOVA Green on October 16, 2021, 11:53:50 PM
If I ever had a dictatorship, first thing I would do is end corn subsidies. The farmers want conservative politics? They can get that.

This would amount to a regressive benefit that hurts poorer Americans, as it would only exacerbate the problem of poorer Americans spending a larger percentage of their income on groceries.

Keep the farm subsidies that benefit the GOP farmers and in turn benefit low income Democrat voters. win win.

The left-wing/liberaltarian argument against corn subsidies is that they are used to grow excess corn that is used to produce high fructose corn syrup (HFCS), which is added to many cheap processed foods and is bad for you if you eat too much of it (like if you are lower income and live in a food desert). HFCS has been linked to higher rates of diabetes and obesity, causing worse health outcomes

Ethanol might be another argument for/against providing subsidies to the small family corn farmers in places such as Iowa.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Person Man on October 19, 2021, 05:18:54 AM
If I ever had a dictatorship, first thing I would do is end corn subsidies. The farmers want conservative politics? They can get that.

This would amount to a regressive benefit that hurts poorer Americans, as it would only exacerbate the problem of poorer Americans spending a larger percentage of their income on groceries.

Keep the farm subsidies that benefit the GOP farmers and in turn benefit low income Democrat voters. win win.

The left-wing/liberaltarian argument against corn subsidies is that they are used to grow excess corn that is used to produce high fructose corn syrup (HFCS), which is added to many cheap processed foods and is bad for you if you eat too much of it (like if you are lower income and live in a food desert). HFCS has been linked to higher rates of diabetes and obesity, causing worse health outcomes

Ethanol might be another argument for/against providing subsidies to the small family corn farmers in places such as Iowa.



Poor people can’t afford doctors and taxpayers can’t afford programs for their exasperated medical conditions.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gracile on October 26, 2021, 01:52:11 PM
There's a special election today in the Cheshire 9 house district in New Hampshire (a Biden +15.8/Clinton +11.1 district).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on October 26, 2021, 04:33:57 PM
There's a special election today in the Cheshire 9 house district in New Hampshire (a Biden +15.8/Clinton +11.1 district).

I am guessing the margin will be around clinton's

was this a romney district?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LimoLiberal on October 26, 2021, 06:45:50 PM
Youngkin is done.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on October 26, 2021, 06:46:09 PM
The dem won 65-34

Substantial over-performance from Biden’s +16 win

Wonder what happened here?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on October 26, 2021, 06:48:56 PM
The dem won 65-34

Substantial over-performance from Biden’s +16 win

Wonder what happened here?
New hampshire backlash against the governing R trifecta ?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: SnowLabrador on October 26, 2021, 07:58:09 PM
Maybe the low-propensity Trump supporter hypothesis might have some merit after all. Still, Sununu is quite popular in New Hampshire.

I am saying it right now: If Hassan wins, I will leave the forum forever.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 26, 2021, 08:25:20 PM
Maybe the low-propensity Trump supporter hypothesis might have some merit after all.

But this didn’t happen at all in IA, where Republicans performed very well in that special election (and arguably outperformed expectations). It’s crazy how much IA and NH have diverged since 2012 after voting so similarly five presidential elections in a row.

NH-SEN 2010 was arguably a more anomalous result than IN-PRES 2008 (which was at least partly foreshadowed by the 2006 House gains in IN).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on October 27, 2021, 06:28:43 AM
Isn't this like the 2nd or 3rd smaller local NH election where Dems have outperformed this year?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on October 27, 2021, 10:06:43 AM
Maybe the low-propensity Trump supporter hypothesis might have some merit after all.

But this didn’t happen at all in IA, where Republicans performed very well in that special election (and arguably outperformed expectations). It’s crazy how much IA and NH have diverged since 2012 after voting so similarly five presidential elections in a row.

NH-SEN 2010 was arguably a more anomalous result than IN-PRES 2008 (which was at least partly foreshadowed by the 2006 House gains in IN).
Maybe it’s all the angry NH women voting D.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MillennialModerate on November 01, 2021, 05:06:40 AM
Can someone give me a quick break down of what the chances are of VA having a trifecta? And aka having voting restrictions passed?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Politics Fan on November 01, 2021, 08:07:26 PM
Can someone give me a quick break down of what the chances are of VA having a trifecta? And aka having voting restrictions passed?
It’s literally impossible for reps to win one as the Senate isn’t up. Assuming that Dems have about a 50/50 chance to retain the Gov mansion and HOD along with those outcomes being highly correlated. I would say prob 50/50 assuming both outcomes are highly correlated.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: BigSkyBob on November 02, 2021, 07:20:50 AM
Can someone give me a quick break down of what the chances are of VA having a trifecta? And aka having voting restrictions passed?

Barring party switches, or resignations zero for Republicans inasmuch as the State Senate does not stand for election this year. The Democratic trifecta isn't looking too good either.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: lfromnj on November 02, 2021, 07:31:35 AM
Can someone give me a quick break down of what the chances are of VA having a trifecta? And aka having voting restrictions passed?

State legislature can't flip as state senate isn't up till 2023. Rs would either have to hope for a special  and win it or wait till 2023 with updated maps. Issue is the house map will be updated too, most of the house gerrymander is useless by now with dummymanders in NOVA and the Richmond/Hampton roads being redrawn anyway but I guess Rs still get 2 seats from Albemarle which is triple split after the Charlottesville sink and the Blacksburg gerrymander. Dems do hold the Blacksburg  seat as of now though but it is a key district for an R trifecta. Contractions in NOVA won't help Rs either. There is a bit of a dummymander in areas like PWC where the GOP tried a 4R 1 D map which held as 3 R 2 D till 2017 so you can still carve out reasonably winnable seats for the GOP near Gainesville and in between Manassas and I95 so that could help a bit in that the new seats would be winnable although a new seat would also have to come into Loudoun as well.   Generally 2.5 seats will be added to NOVA  which could theoretically still be winnable for Rs if you draw PWC in a R favorable manner but not incredibly so.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Person Man on November 02, 2021, 07:38:55 AM
The dem won 65-34

Substantial over-performance from Biden’s +16 win

Wonder what happened here?
New hampshire backlash against the governing R trifecta ?

1) local demographic change or 2) New Hampshire might be the Delaware, Colorado, or Nevada of the 2022 cycle.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Senator Incitatus on November 02, 2021, 01:41:45 PM
The dem won 65-34

Substantial over-performance from Biden’s +16 win

Wonder what happened here?

Highly educated New England special election voters don't follow national trends. In 2017–18, special elections in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island were among the strongest trends toward Republicans in the country. They all still swung strongly to Democrats in both 2018 and 2020.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on November 02, 2021, 01:51:30 PM
The dem won 65-34

Substantial over-performance from Biden’s +16 win

Wonder what happened here?

Highly educated New England special election voters don't follow national trends. In 2017–18, special elections in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island were among the strongest trends toward Republicans in the country. They all still swung strongly to Democrats in both 2018 and 2020.

Also there was the special Senate election in Greenwich where a Republican flipped a seat that Biden carried by over 20.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Senator Incitatus on November 02, 2021, 02:01:45 PM
The dem won 65-34

Substantial over-performance from Biden’s +16 win

Wonder what happened here?

Highly educated New England special election voters don't follow national trends. In 2017–18, special elections in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island were among the strongest trends toward Republicans in the country. They all still swung strongly to Democrats in both 2018 and 2020.

Also there was the special Senate election in Greenwich where a Republican flipped a seat that Biden carried by over 20.

Yes; in addition to the strong education leading to ticket-splitting, the strong tradition of parochialism means it's hard to read even state trends into these races.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on November 02, 2021, 10:44:37 PM
Maine House District 86 special election

Democrat LaRochelle elected to fill Augusta-area House seat previously held by Republican (https://www.centralmaine.com/2021/11/02/democrat-larochelle-elected-to-fill-augusta-area-house-seat-previously-held-by-republican/)

Given that House District 86 (which will gain some territory to become House District 59 for next year's primary and general elections) is entirely in the city of Augusta, the use of "area" in the headline is curious.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on November 30, 2021, 09:15:51 PM
http://thelocalne.ws/2021/11/30/belsito-is-first-democrat-to-take-4th-essex-since-1858/

Democrat Jamie Belsito wins special election for 4th Essex district in Massachusetts. A Democrat has not won this district since 1858.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on November 30, 2021, 09:18:29 PM
http://thelocalne.ws/2021/11/30/belsito-is-first-democrat-to-take-4th-essex-since-1858/

Democrat Jamie Belsito wins special election for 4th Essex district in Massachusetts. A Democrat has not won this district since 1858.
By what margin did it vote Biden ?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 30, 2021, 09:19:31 PM
http://thelocalne.ws/2021/11/30/belsito-is-first-democrat-to-take-4th-essex-since-1858/

Democrat Jamie Belsito wins special election for 4th Essex district in Massachusetts. A Democrat has not won this district since 1858.
By what margin did it vote Biden ?

He won it by about 30 points.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on November 30, 2021, 09:20:48 PM
http://thelocalne.ws/2021/11/30/belsito-is-first-democrat-to-take-4th-essex-since-1858/

Democrat Jamie Belsito wins special election for 4th Essex district in Massachusetts. A Democrat has not won this district since 1858.
By what margin did it vote Biden ?

He won it by about 30 points.
It's easy to forget just how rapid the realignment in new england has been in some places.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on November 30, 2021, 10:16:36 PM
Is there a particular reason dems couldn’t crack this seat in previous cycles?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Not Me, Us on November 30, 2021, 10:21:41 PM
Is there a particular reason dems couldn’t crack this seat in previous cycles?

It had an R incumbent since 1998, back when the MAGOP was much stronger. I assume it was incumbency advantage and it being a non-polarized local office. Brad Hill, the former incumbent, was appointed by Baker to a state position, so he was probably quite moderate, but I don't know for sure.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on November 30, 2021, 10:23:02 PM
Is there a particular reason dems couldn’t crack this seat in previous cycles?

Massive ticket splitting is still fairly common in New England. There's a GOP State Rep in Vermont who won by 16 points even as Biden got nearly 80% of the vote in her district.

For this seat, I think the previous incumbent was personally popular and went unopposed most of the time. Democrats hold such huge legislative majorities in Massachusetts that they probably felt there was no point in challenging him.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on November 30, 2021, 11:41:18 PM
It's pretty stunning how New England continues to produce some pretty good results for the Democrats in specials this cycle despite the underperformance everywhere else.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on December 01, 2021, 10:48:19 AM
New England consistently has been the most based part of the country.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: lfromnj on December 07, 2021, 11:02:19 PM


Overperform of Trump 2016 as well.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: BigSerg on December 15, 2021, 10:05:01 AM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: BoiseBoy on December 15, 2021, 12:13:24 PM

Total turnout for this district was 1,088 people. In 2020, turnout was at 5,622 people despite there being no opposition in the race. In 2018, turnout was at 5,088 people.

This is only 19.4% of last year's showing. I'd chalk the result up to that, first and foremost.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on December 18, 2021, 11:49:10 PM
One upcoming one in Washington:



Both Reps are Democrats and this is a seat Biden won by double digits.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on December 19, 2021, 08:47:31 AM
The dem won 65-34

Substantial over-performance from Biden’s +16 win

Wonder what happened here?

Highly educated New England special election voters don't follow national trends. In 2017–18, special elections in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island were among the strongest trends toward Republicans in the country. They all still swung strongly to Democrats in both 2018 and 2020.

Also there was the special Senate election in Greenwich where a Republican flipped a seat that Biden carried by over 20.

Yes; in addition to the strong education leading to ticket-splitting, the strong tradition of parochialism means it's hard to read even state trends into these races.
I'm in that district now, my aunt voted for the democrat despite being pro-life, anti-weed whiel my uncle who's an Elon musk stan just didn't vote. Apparently the democrat canidate was considered kinda weird by the residents.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LtNOWIS on December 23, 2021, 07:14:47 AM
VA-HD-89 set for a January 11 special election. Safe blue seat in Hampton Roads, being vacated by former AG candidate Jay Jones.

https://www.pilotonline.com/government/virginia/vp-nw-democrat-nominee-89th-house-district-20211222-imfswbabvvbrzbpxh6p3br7xju-story.html


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Boobs on January 03, 2022, 06:44:48 PM
Lorena Gonzalez CA-HD-80 is resigning to take a job with the AFL-CIO. Safe Dem district (Gonzalez won with 72% in 2020) but also around 70% Hispanic, so margin might be interesting.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Unelectable Bystander on January 11, 2022, 08:49:58 AM
It sounds like there are a few special elections tonight. Some of them are non-competitive districts in Florida, but one election in Maine looking interesting. It’s a mostly white 58-41 dem district that might give a good sense of the environment. Anybody know if this is true?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on January 11, 2022, 09:58:45 PM
It sounds like there are a few special elections tonight. Some of them are non-competitive districts in Florida, but one election in Maine looking interesting. It’s a mostly white 58-41 dem district that might give a good sense of the environment. Anybody know if this is true?

Jim Boyle (D): 57%
Tim Thorsen (R): 38%
Suzanne Phillips (I): 5%

https://bangordailynews.com/2022/01/11/politics/former-gubernatorial-candidate-easily-holds-portland-area-legislative-seat-for-democrats/


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Politics Fan on January 26, 2022, 01:38:19 AM
Democrats held D+9 CT LD 144 56-44 today

https://www.fox61.com/amp/article/news/local/fairfield-county/democrat-hubert-delany-wins-144th-state-representative-seat-in-house-connecticut/520-7d5bc4d6-aab3-4b79-b963-e280caf28f1c (https://www.fox61.com/amp/article/news/local/fairfield-county/democrat-hubert-delany-wins-144th-state-representative-seat-in-house-connecticut/520-7d5bc4d6-aab3-4b79-b963-e280caf28f1c)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Unelectable Bystander on February 08, 2022, 08:16:01 PM
What are the expectations for tonight’s mayoral and senate races?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Boobs on February 08, 2022, 10:05:01 PM
Republicans hold AR-SD-07 in Washington County, Arkansas, by just 34 votes (!), or 0.84%. This seat went for Trump by 14%. Jim Bob Duggar ran in the R primary earlier but lost.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on February 08, 2022, 10:08:07 PM
Republicans hold AR-SD-07 in Washington County, Arkansas, by just 34 votes (!), or 0.84%. This seat went for Trump by 14%. Jim Bob Duggar ran in the R primary earlier but lost.

I'm sure the turnout was very low, but that's absolutely insane. Special elections really can be weird. Who said all politics was national?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Boobs on February 08, 2022, 10:10:14 PM
Republicans hold AR-SD-07 in Washington County, Arkansas, by just 34 votes (!), or 0.84%. This seat went for Trump by 14%. Jim Bob Duggar ran in the R primary earlier but lost.

I'm sure the turnout was very low, but that's absolutely insane. Special elections really can be weird. Who said all politics was national?

The winning R got only about 2/3rds of the total GOP primary turnout for the special while the Democrat turned out about 2.5x the Democrat primary. Reportedly the Repub didn't campaign past the primary.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on February 08, 2022, 10:10:35 PM
Republicans hold AR-SD-07 in Washington County, Arkansas, by just 34 votes (!), or 0.84%. This seat went for Trump by 14%. Jim Bob Duggar ran in the R primary earlier but lost.

I saw this in my twitter feed. Yes this is a Dem trending part of the state, but I suspect the root cause of the result is the Dugger's poisoning local politics with the trial, rightful scandal, and media coverage. Which is why the R primary got at lot more votes then the R now - people wanted him away from their lives.

Also, the other major race of the night, OKC mayor, is a landslide for incumbent David Holt. This in unsurprising given the token nature of the three opposition candidates.  


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Brittain33 on February 08, 2022, 10:15:39 PM
This is going to mess up the charts tracking swing since 2020.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on February 08, 2022, 10:21:17 PM
Republicans hold AR-SD-07 in Washington County, Arkansas, by just 34 votes (!), or 0.84%. This seat went for Trump by 14%. Jim Bob Duggar ran in the R primary earlier but lost.
Absoutley insane perfomance for the democrat in the special even with all the special factors.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on February 09, 2022, 01:34:15 AM
Republicans hold AR-SD-07 in Washington County, Arkansas, by just 34 votes (!), or 0.84%. This seat went for Trump by 14%. Jim Bob Duggar ran in the R primary earlier but lost.

I am now going to use this result to predict a uniform swing of 13% towards the Democrats in every race in the nation this fall. That's how it works right?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on February 12, 2022, 07:23:12 PM
On April 5th, there'll be a special for a GOP-held State House seat in East Cobb and North Fulton, with a possible runoff on May 3: https://apnews.com/article/georgia-special-elections-elections-house-elections-0bf78e85e04327c9ca0803995e381874

I think I saw that Biden narrowly won the district, but the former State Rep won by 10 in 2020. Still could be an interesting indicator of what might happen in Georgia this fall.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on February 19, 2022, 02:43:32 PM
On April 5th, there'll be a special for a GOP-held State House seat in East Cobb and North Fulton, with a possible runoff on May 3: https://apnews.com/article/georgia-special-elections-elections-house-elections-0bf78e85e04327c9ca0803995e381874

I think I saw that Biden narrowly won the district, but the former State Rep won by 10 in 2020. Still could be an interesting indicator of what might happen in Georgia this fall.


Republican + 28 probably


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on February 19, 2022, 04:17:00 PM
Last Tuesday there was a special election in CA Assembly District 49. The Democrat won by 67%-33% (it's CA so results will trickle in for another month). In 2020 Democrats won this district 68%-32%. There was also another AD primary in a San Francisco area district with all Democrats.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on February 22, 2022, 01:14:10 PM
It’s so weird, you would expect Dems to be getting slaughtered given the polls and VA/NJ.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on February 22, 2022, 01:18:26 PM
It’s so weird, you would expect Dems to be getting slaughtered given the polls and VA/NJ.

Special elections usually have very low turnout that can cause weird results. Like that one in Northwest Arkansas where a Trump +14 district ended up being a squeaker.

Plus at that level, campaign/candidate quality will matter more.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on February 22, 2022, 01:19:40 PM
Also two state leg elections today, one in Connecticut (71) and one in Kentucky (42)

71 was only Trump+5, but it is more R downballot.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on February 22, 2022, 01:22:18 PM
It’s so weird, you would expect Dems to be getting slaughtered given the polls and VA/NJ.

Special elections usually have very low turnout that causes weird results.

state legislative specials are quite predicative of the national mood.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on February 22, 2022, 07:44:40 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: BoiseBoy on February 22, 2022, 07:57:17 PM

Based on what I've read it's primarily because of decreased black turnout.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on February 22, 2022, 08:03:14 PM
Dems won HD42 in kentucky 95-4. Lol


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on February 22, 2022, 08:07:42 PM
Dems won HD42 in kentucky 95-4. Lol

Guys, Rand Paul's race is a tossup!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Unelectable Bystander on February 22, 2022, 08:12:43 PM


Interesting that it was the entire city of Jacksonville and not just some random state house district. It’s only one race, but this shows that minority dem apathy towards Biden does matter. Either that or Jacksonville titan Marco Rubio was on the ballot


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on February 22, 2022, 08:28:46 PM
The R won in CT HD71

Waiting on margin


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on February 22, 2022, 08:30:51 PM
So…

The gop just won 77-23 in a Trump +6 seat in CT

Dems win 94-5 in a Biden +77 seat


I don’t get these conflicting signals


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MRS DONNA SHALALA on February 22, 2022, 08:34:53 PM
So…

The gop just won 77-23 in a Trump +6 seat in CT

Dems win 94-5 in a Biden +77 seat


I don’t get these conflicting signals

Source on CT result? Not seeing anything on DDHQ.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on February 22, 2022, 08:36:06 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MT Treasurer on February 22, 2022, 08:36:10 PM
The one reason the Jacksonville election should concern Democrats is that that city/Duval County is generally similarly 'inelastic' as GA and probably the one part of the state closest (demographically/electorally) to GA, so if we’re seeing this kind of swing away from Democrats here and it’s a sign of things to come, even GA's more 'inelastic' character isn’t going to prevent a GOP win in that state given that GA Republicans only need a fraction of the Jacksonville swing. A 52-48 GOP win in GA honestly doesn’t sound that inconceivable either in a very Republican environment.

This is also a victory for DeSantis, who involved himself heavily in these local campaigns.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MRS DONNA SHALALA on February 22, 2022, 08:51:34 PM


I'd hold out on speculating till we see an official tabulation, there's a chance that this is just ED votes.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on February 23, 2022, 02:18:21 PM
And boom. There’s confirmation of the polls.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: lfromnj on February 23, 2022, 03:05:23 PM
By the is the Jacksonville election all of Duval or just the city itself? The county was Biden +4 but the city was Biden +5.5.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on February 23, 2022, 03:39:28 PM
For the record not only does the Jacksonville City Council have a Republican majority, all five of the at-large seats except previously this one are Republican-held. Jacksonville also has a Republican mayor: https://ballotpedia.org/Jacksonville,_Florida

Obviously this isn't good news for Democrats or "no big deal" considering both parties really played up the election but municipal elections aren't usually a good barometer of national elections and can be skewed by issues that have no relevance nationally.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on February 23, 2022, 03:45:11 PM
By the is the Jacksonville election all of Duval or just the city itself? The county was Biden +4 but the city was Biden +5.5.
The non-Jacksonville municipalities have their own governments so just the city. Still the last time all of these at-large seats were up the Republicans won 4/5 of the seats. Obviously a much whiter electorate than the Presidential one. And thus also not really a good barometer, based on the 2019 results you'd assume Trump would be running pretty strong in the area when Duval County actually swung against him and Biden was the first Democrat to win it since 1976. (Hillary probably narrowly won the city of Jacksonville even if not Duval County though and Obama might've squeaked out a victory in 2008 as well.)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on March 02, 2022, 07:49:51 AM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on March 08, 2022, 07:48:06 PM
A couple elections tonight in Florida. SD-33 and HD-88. Both are heavily Democratic and majority Black.

With most of the vote in

SD-33:

Rosalind Osgood (DEM) 80.65%
Joseph C. Carter (REP) 19.35%

HD-88:

Jervonte "Tae" Edmonds (DEM) 80.02%
Guarina Torres (REP) 19.98%

Both would be a small improvement for Democrats on the Biden/Trump numbers.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on March 22, 2022, 08:49:09 PM
Special election tonight in NY 43rd Assembly District. 95% in.

1       Brian A. Cunningham    Democratic            1848            62.18%   
 
2       Mesidor Azor    Republican                        63    2.12%   
 
3       Mesidor Azor    Conservative                        25    0.84%   
 
4       Jelanie Deshong    Working Families     1028    34.59%   
 
5       WRITE-IN                                                       8    0.27%

Extremely blue district and very low turnout but no sign of of improvement Republican/Conservative candidate over past elections, Trump got 8% in 2016.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: NewYorkExpress on March 26, 2022, 10:57:26 PM
Special election tonight in NY 43rd Assembly District. 95% in.

1 Brian A. Cunningham Democratic         1848          62.18%
 
2 Mesidor Azor Republican                     63 2.12%
 
3 Mesidor Azor Conservative                     25 0.84%
 
4 Jelanie Deshong Working Families 1028 34.59%
 
5 WRITE-IN                                                8 0.27%

Extremely blue district and very low turnout but no sign of of improvement Republican/Conservative candidate over past elections, Trump got 8% in 2016.


I'm curious as to what's so objectionable about Cunningham for Deshong to do so well. The Working Families nominee doesn't usually do this well in New York Elections (when they aren't also the Democratic nominee), without some real issues related to the Democratic nominee.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: locked_out on March 28, 2022, 10:16:30 AM
Special election tonight in NY 43rd Assembly District. 95% in.

1 Brian A. Cunningham Democratic         1848          62.18%
 
2 Mesidor Azor Republican                     63 2.12%
 
3 Mesidor Azor Conservative                     25 0.84%
 
4 Jelanie Deshong Working Families 1028 34.59%
 
5 WRITE-IN                                                8 0.27%

Extremely blue district and very low turnout but no sign of of improvement Republican/Conservative candidate over past elections, Trump got 8% in 2016.


I'm curious as to what's so objectionable about Cunningham for Deshong to do so well. The Working Families nominee doesn't usually do this well in New York Elections (when they aren't also the Democratic nominee), without some real issues related to the Democratic nominee.

There has been quite a backlash to the tactics of the Brooklyn Democratic Party (from New Kings Democrats etc) and the perceived underhanded way in which they hand out nominations in local specials (which contribute to a huge % of how people end up in Assembly/Senate). In a race with turnout this low, the activist groups probably comprise a big % of overall votes.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MRS DONNA SHALALA on March 29, 2022, 11:12:36 AM
Special election tonight in NY 43rd Assembly District. 95% in.

1 Brian A. Cunningham Democratic         1848          62.18%
 
2 Mesidor Azor Republican                     63 2.12%
 
3 Mesidor Azor Conservative                     25 0.84%
 
4 Jelanie Deshong Working Families 1028 34.59%
 
5 WRITE-IN                                                8 0.27%

Extremely blue district and very low turnout but no sign of of improvement Republican/Conservative candidate over past elections, Trump got 8% in 2016.


I'm curious as to what's so objectionable about Cunningham for Deshong to do so well. The Working Families nominee doesn't usually do this well in New York Elections (when they aren't also the Democratic nominee), without some real issues related to the Democratic nominee.

There has been quite a backlash to the tactics of the Brooklyn Democratic Party (from New Kings Democrats etc) and the perceived underhanded way in which they hand out nominations in local specials (which contribute to a huge % of how people end up in Assembly/Senate). In a race with turnout this low, the activist groups probably comprise a big % of overall votes.


Pretty much this ^. Here's an article that lays it out: https://www.brooklynpaper.com/brian-cunningham-democratic-nomination-43/


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on March 29, 2022, 09:42:19 PM
Wtf



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on March 29, 2022, 09:49:33 PM
Some quick research: The Republican is black (usually doesn't matter but if he has some ties to the local black community that could help in a very low turnout special election) and he owns a few car dealerships meaning he has high name recognition with his name everywhere on billboards in the area...and of course it was a dirt low turnout election the Democrats probably didn't even try for considering it was still a Safe R seat. But winning over 90% in a district that's over 30% black means he either actually won the black vote or turnout utterly cratered in heavily black areas. We'll have to look at the precinct results to see.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ProgressiveModerate on March 29, 2022, 10:54:17 PM
Some quick research: The Republican is black (usually doesn't matter but if he has some ties to the local black community that could help in a very low turnout special election) and he owns a few car dealerships meaning he has high name recognition with his name everywhere on billboards in the area...and of course it was a dirt low turnout election the Democrats probably didn't even try for considering it was still a Safe R seat. But winning over 90% in a district that's over 30% black means he either actually won the black vote or turnout utterly cratered in heavily black areas. We'll have to look at the precinct results to see.

My guess is more the latter though maybe he could've come closer with the black vote than usual. The thing is there's a notable chunk the black electorate well above 50% who in this day and age will never vote GOP no matter what.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on March 29, 2022, 11:08:43 PM
Some quick research: The Republican is black (usually doesn't matter but if he has some ties to the local black community that could help in a very low turnout special election) and he owns a few car dealerships meaning he has high name recognition with his name everywhere on billboards in the area...and of course it was a dirt low turnout election the Democrats probably didn't even try for considering it was still a Safe R seat. But winning over 90% in a district that's over 30% black means he either actually won the black vote or turnout utterly cratered in heavily black areas. We'll have to look at the precinct results to see.

My guess is more the latter though maybe he could've come closer with the black vote than usual. The thing is there's a notable chunk the black electorate well above 50% who in this day and age will never vote GOP no matter what.
Probably the closest example we'll get is Joseph Cao's victory in LA-02 in 2008. Cao probably holds the record for Republican Representative who represented the most Democratic district of the 21st century and possibly since when the South was crazy and unpredictable, but regardless for those too young to remember it (wow I feel old), the Democratic incumbent Bill Jefferson was incredibly blatantly corrupt (famous for the FBI finding a brick of cash in his freezer) and the Democrats tried to oust him in 2006, but he won the runoff against another more liberal Democrat by appealing to Republicans on cultural issues since he was one of those socially conservative black Democrats and though his opponent was black too she didn't really appeal to the community and won on a bizarre black + Republican coalition. In 2008 the Democrats kind of gave up, but in a strange twist Hurricane Gustav postponed the primary which was actually held election day, and the runoff after that, Jefferson was facing the Republican Cao so most people assumed he would win again.

However Cao was able to narrowly win. And the precinct results are fascinating, Cao not only won the Republican areas but also the white liberal areas in New Orleans that voted heavily for Obama, and in the predominately black wards...turnout fell through the floor. One speculated theory is Jefferson would've pulled through on Election Day, but since this was held about a month after Obama's victory, the sort of tribalism that made black voters support him no longer applied and they didn't care about the "he's a crook but at least he's one of us" sort of mindset too much. Not many of them voted for Cao, but many of them just stayed home no longer caring about Jefferson enough to bail him out. Of course Cao lost big in 2010 to Cedric Richmond.

Again we need precinct results to really see what happened here.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on March 29, 2022, 11:48:32 PM
Wtf



Welp that's it then. Uniform swing means Republicans will have around 400 seats in the House and sweep the Senate & Governor races.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ElectionsGuy on March 30, 2022, 12:21:25 AM
Wtf



Welp that's it then. Uniform swing means Republicans will have around 400 seats in the House and sweep the Senate & Governor races.

Yikes. I see the whole "R's aren't improving in special elections" talking point based on a few cherry-picked races implying that an R wave is unlikely just crashed and burned tonight.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Shaula🏳️‍⚧️ on March 30, 2022, 03:46:13 AM
Wtf



Welp that's it then. Uniform swing means Republicans will have around 400 seats in the House and sweep the Senate & Governor races.

Yikes. I see the whole "R's aren't improving in special elections" talking point based on a few cherry-picked races implying that an R wave is unlikely just crashed and burned tonight.
I think extrapolating from any state legislature special election is a little silly. There have been wildly different results in seemingly every race.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ElectionsGuy on March 30, 2022, 10:49:31 AM
Wtf



Welp that's it then. Uniform swing means Republicans will have around 400 seats in the House and sweep the Senate & Governor races.

Yikes. I see the whole "R's aren't improving in special elections" talking point based on a few cherry-picked races implying that an R wave is unlikely just crashed and burned tonight.
I think extrapolating from any state legislature special election is a little silly. There have been wildly different results in seemingly every race.

Yep. The aggregated trend is what matters most. That is on the Republican's side this cycle, even with lots of sporadic results. A 90% win is pretty insane though especially for a district like that, would love to know how that happened. Obviously, that's not going to be replicated in any major races for November.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Schiff for Senate on March 30, 2022, 01:30:17 PM
Some quick research: The Republican is black (usually doesn't matter but if he has some ties to the local black community that could help in a very low turnout special election) and he owns a few car dealerships meaning he has high name recognition with his name everywhere on billboards in the area...and of course it was a dirt low turnout election the Democrats probably didn't even try for considering it was still a Safe R seat. But winning over 90% in a district that's over 30% black means he either actually won the black vote or turnout utterly cratered in heavily black areas. We'll have to look at the precinct results to see.

I think literally that - that the Democrats didn't bother fielding a candidate here - has to explain it. I'm guessing if he won over 90% and outperformed by 62 points, that has to be more than just a strong GOP candidate. He probably didn't have a Democratic opponent and instead faced an Independent, Green and/or Libertarian who scraped together a few votes.

EDIT: Okay, although that would make a lot of sense, it's not what happened. Per 270toWin, (https://www.270towin.com/news/2022/03/29/live-results-south-carolina-state-senate-special-election_1346.html) there was in fact a Democratic nominee, but somehow, she won just 9.7% of the vote (to Mike Reichenbach's 90.1% - per 270toWin, it's 90.3%, but I'm going with what Ballotpedia said, which is that he won just 90.1% and that 14 votes were for write-in candidates (https://ballotpedia.org/Mike_Reichenbach)). It's also an interesting point that the GOP primary was competitive but that the Democratic primary had just one candidate. Also, one of my other suspicions was confirmed - the Democratic candidate (Suzzane La Rochelle) was white. I'm guessing this meant that a lot of African-American Democrats decided not to support a white Democrat over a black Republican and probably they mostly stayed home while more than usual went for Reichenbach.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Canis on April 20, 2022, 03:08:20 AM
Progressive Matt Haney has won the special election for AD 17 in a landslide


Im very happy about this after Calcare was killed it was decided that progressives would organize for pro Calcare candidates in the assembly and senate to get a majority of votes to pass it next year and this is our first victory hopefully we have several more in November!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on April 23, 2022, 10:46:22 AM
Progressive Matt Haney has won the special election for AD 17 in a landslide


Im very happy about this after Calcare was killed it was decided that progressives would organize for pro Calcare candidates in the assembly and senate to get a majority of votes to pass it next year and this is our first victory hopefully we have several more in November!

Haney is (of course, it's San Francisco after all) a progressive, but in this particular race he was "less progressive" then his opponent. As i said above - it's San Francisco: you seldom get anyone  but "progressive",  from it... In distant past even it's Republican officeholders (of course - there are none today) tended to be progressive too.... (best example being former congressman Richard Welch, who was never opposed by Democrats in his SF district, and, generally, was much closer to pragmatic liberal Democrats of his time then to typical Republicans)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MaxQue on April 23, 2022, 11:17:46 AM
Progressive Matt Haney has won the special election for AD 17 in a landslide


Im very happy about this after Calcare was killed it was decided that progressives would organize for pro Calcare candidates in the assembly and senate to get a majority of votes to pass it next year and this is our first victory hopefully we have several more in November!

Haney is (of course, it's San Francisco after all) a progressive, but in this particular race he was "less progressive" then his opponent. As i said above - it's San Francisco: you seldom get anyone  but "progressive",  from it... In distant past even it's Republican officeholders (of course - there are none todey) tended to be progressive too.... (best example being former congressman Richard Welch, who was never opposed by Democrats in his SF district, and, generally, was much closer to pragmatic liberal Democrats of his time then to typical Republicans)

From what I heard, the main defining trait of Campos was not being progressive or not, but being a NIMBY.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on April 23, 2022, 01:08:30 PM
Progressive Matt Haney has won the special election for AD 17 in a landslide


Im very happy about this after Calcare was killed it was decided that progressives would organize for pro Calcare candidates in the assembly and senate to get a majority of votes to pass it next year and this is our first victory hopefully we have several more in November!

Haney is (of course, it's San Francisco after all) a progressive, but in this particular race he was "less progressive" then his opponent. As i said above - it's San Francisco: you seldom get anyone  but "progressive",  from it... In distant past even it's Republican officeholders (of course - there are none todey) tended to be progressive too.... (best example being former congressman Richard Welch, who was never opposed by Democrats in his SF district, and, generally, was much closer to pragmatic liberal Democrats of his time then to typical Republicans)

From what I heard, the main defining trait of Campos was not being progressive or not, but being a NIMBY.

Yeah, but most still considered him to be more "ideologically progressive", while Haney was rather a sort of "pragmatic progressive"...


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: libertpaulian on May 03, 2022, 08:09:33 PM
()

Are we starting to see the backlash to Dobbs?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on May 03, 2022, 08:19:09 PM
()

Are we starting to see the backlash to Dobbs?

Oh huh this was a republican seat, right ? Did it vote for Biden ?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: libertpaulian on May 03, 2022, 08:25:21 PM
Whoa.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on May 03, 2022, 08:32:27 PM
Whoa.



Wait, isn't this the a**hole who told his daughter that if she was being raped she just needs to "lie back and enjoy it"?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 03, 2022, 08:33:59 PM
()

Are we starting to see the backlash to Dobbs?


Reminder that this election is meaningless, given that the legislature does not sit until after the November vote. Though now there is rumors of a tiny special session for abortion trash laws, but the net impact is still the same.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on May 03, 2022, 08:49:10 PM
Whoa.


This is the guy who told his daughter to just lay back and enjoy it if she was being raped, pretty obvious reason why.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on May 03, 2022, 08:54:07 PM
Boom:

DEM pickup.



ET is saying this district is going to be Biden +10 after redistricting, so she has a good chance at keeping this even after the midterms.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 03, 2022, 08:54:29 PM
()

Are we starting to see the backlash to Dobbs?

Oh huh this was a republican seat, right ? Did it vote for Biden ?
I drew it in DRA...Biden 47.17% - Trump 51.26%. All the precincts were close, Biden only won one.

Also:
Ossoff 43.54% - Perdue 56.46%
Warnock 44.77% - Loeffler 55.23%
Abrams 41.37%   - Kemp 57.06%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on May 03, 2022, 08:56:14 PM
Lib ET gunna be insufferable tonight



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on May 03, 2022, 09:00:34 PM
Georgia Race shows solid republican lead.

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/112811/web.285569/#/detail/54500


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 03, 2022, 09:00:50 PM
Boom:

DEM pickup.


This seat was Trump 57.28% - Biden 40.77%.

Even Schuette 54.05% - Whitmer 42.29%.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on May 03, 2022, 09:02:47 PM
There’s got to be more to the story

Was the gop guy a creep


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mehmentum on May 03, 2022, 09:04:56 PM
There’s got to be more to the story

Was the gop guy a creep
He told his daughter that if she got raped she should just lay back and enjoy it.  So yeah, he's an odious piece of sh**t deservedly going down in flames.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MRS DONNA SHALALA on May 03, 2022, 09:12:17 PM
There’s got to be more to the story

Was the gop guy a creep
He told his daughter that if she got raped she should just lay back and enjoy it.  So yeah, he's an odious piece of sh**t deservedly going down in flames.

so a generic republican then


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Adam Griffin on May 03, 2022, 10:07:41 PM
()

Are we starting to see the backlash to Dobbs?

Oh huh this was a republican seat, right ? Did it vote for Biden ?
I drew it in DRA...Biden 47.17% - Trump 51.26%. All the precincts were close, Biden only won one.

Also:
Ossoff 43.54% - Perdue 56.46%
Warnock 44.77% - Loeffler 55.23%
Abrams 41.37%   - Kemp 57.06%

Abrams/Warnock/Ossoff Average: R +13.02
Current Results (100% Reporting): R +13.06

()


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gass3268 on May 03, 2022, 11:28:50 PM
Pretty good night for Democrats in Michigan



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on May 04, 2022, 12:48:14 AM
I certainly wouldn't look too much at specials to determine how things will go in a few months, but this certainly paints a little rosier picture for Democrats than I expected before.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 04, 2022, 01:36:05 AM
I certainly wouldn't look too much at specials to determine how things will go in a few months, but this certainly paints a little rosier picture for Democrats than I expected before.
Whitmer can probably breathe a bit easier at least.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Matty on May 04, 2022, 01:38:47 AM
I certainly wouldn't look too much at specials to determine how things will go in a few months, but this certainly paints a little rosier picture for Democrats than I expected before.

Much better to look at the average swing this year in all races plus polling.....if anything, the outlook has gotten worse for the dems.

I believe the GOP lead on rcp is higher now than it was on this day in 2010.

It just seems kind of hackish in my opinion to continue to argue that 2022 is going to be a precedent defying midterm when 4 years ago arguing that 2018 was going to be an historic D wave when much of the fundamentals remain the same: GCB polling, presidential approval, swing averages in special elections, etc.

I get this board is mostly dem, but it seems like y'all are setting yourself up for disappointment. Elected democrats know what is coming.

The elephant in the room is simple: the repubs only need to flip like 4 seats. If they needed to flip 20, that would be an interesting story/debate.

But 4 seats is a piece of cake when the sitting president is sporting low 40s approvals.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on May 04, 2022, 07:16:11 AM
I certainly wouldn't look too much at specials to determine how things will go in a few months, but this certainly paints a little rosier picture for Democrats than I expected before.

Much better to look at the average swing this year in all races plus polling.....if anything, the outlook has gotten worse for the dems.

I believe the GOP lead on rcp is higher now than it was on this day in 2010.

It just seems kind of hackish in my opinion to continue to argue that 2022 is going to be a precedent defying midterm when 4 years ago arguing that 2018 was going to be an historic D wave when much of the fundamentals remain the same: GCB polling, presidential approval, swing averages in special elections, etc.

I get this board is mostly dem, but it seems like y'all are setting yourself up for disappointment. Elected democrats know what is coming.

The elephant in the room is simple: the repubs only need to flip like 4 seats. If they needed to flip 20, that would be an interesting story/debate.

But 4 seats is a piece of cake when the sitting president is sporting low 40s approvals.

I wouldn't go by this, considering there was not only way more polling in 2010, but better quality polling, especially for the GCB.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on May 04, 2022, 06:31:34 PM
That Michigan result is just the sort of good news I needed to hear after a harrowing day. My sense of inherent cynicism can't help but take over though and make me fear that it was just another Akin-Mourdock-Moore-esque fluke, or because it was a special election, or something. I really don't want to read too much into and have hope for November and beyond. 

Then again, maybe the key to Democrats mitigating the incoming Republican wave is to get them to talk about rape as often as possible. Somehow they are still f***ing up with this and people still actually care?!

Anyway, I said I was going to go back on hiatus a few posts ago, but I think this relatively positive post is the best one to do it on-leave on a high note and all that.

I'll probably be back for the next national travesty! See you then!...it shouldn't be long...


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ProgressiveModerate on May 04, 2022, 07:17:35 PM
Again always take special elections that coincide with primaries with a huge grain of salt as turnout can often be lopsided. Still MI Dems had a relatively good night considering


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on May 07, 2022, 04:21:09 PM
I certainly wouldn't look too much at specials to determine how things will go in a few months, but this certainly paints a little rosier picture for Democrats than I expected before.

Much better to look at the average swing this year in all races plus polling.....if anything, the outlook has gotten worse for the dems.

I believe the GOP lead on rcp is higher now than it was on this day in 2010.

It just seems kind of hackish in my opinion to continue to argue that 2022 is going to be a precedent defying midterm when 4 years ago arguing that 2018 was going to be an historic D wave when much of the fundamentals remain the same: GCB polling, presidential approval, swing averages in special elections, etc.

I get this board is mostly dem, but it seems like y'all are setting yourself up for disappointment. Elected democrats know what is coming.

The elephant in the room is simple: the repubs only need to flip like 4 seats. If they needed to flip 20, that would be an interesting story/debate.

But 4 seats is a piece of cake when the sitting president is sporting low 40s approvals.
Um…the swing over the past few months compared to 2020 has not been bad at all, and debatably even positive for Democrats when compared to 2020 if you account for incumbency.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ProgressiveModerate on May 10, 2022, 09:32:48 PM
I certainly wouldn't look too much at specials to determine how things will go in a few months, but this certainly paints a little rosier picture for Democrats than I expected before.

Much better to look at the average swing this year in all races plus polling.....if anything, the outlook has gotten worse for the dems.

I believe the GOP lead on rcp is higher now than it was on this day in 2010.

It just seems kind of hackish in my opinion to continue to argue that 2022 is going to be a precedent defying midterm when 4 years ago arguing that 2018 was going to be an historic D wave when much of the fundamentals remain the same: GCB polling, presidential approval, swing averages in special elections, etc.

I get this board is mostly dem, but it seems like y'all are setting yourself up for disappointment. Elected democrats know what is coming.

The elephant in the room is simple: the repubs only need to flip like 4 seats. If they needed to flip 20, that would be an interesting story/debate.

But 4 seats is a piece of cake when the sitting president is sporting low 40s approvals.
Um…the swing over the past few months compared to 2020 has not been bad at all, and debatably even positive for Democrats when compared to 2020 if you account for incumbency.

Special elections do tend to be kinda... miscellaneous and just because a clear trend doesn't present doesn't mean in hindsight people will point out things are tell tale signs that weren't so obvious at the time.

This does kinda make me think though that in 2022, state legistlative Dems won't underperform federal and gov elections as badly as in 2020.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 17, 2022, 10:11:19 PM
Democrats held Pennsylvania's 5th Senate District which was vacant after the incumbent was elected to a judge spot in November.

DILLON, JAMES
(DEM)
54.05%
    Votes: 14,510
OROPEZA, SAMUEL E
(REP)
45.95%
    Votes: 12,335

Was a Biden +10 district, so that seems to be an R+2 swing.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on May 17, 2022, 10:39:45 PM
Democrats held Pennsylvania's 5th Senate District which was vacant after the incumbent was elected to a judge spot in November.

DILLON, JAMES
(DEM)
54.05%
    Votes: 14,510
OROPEZA, SAMUEL E
(REP)
45.95%
    Votes: 12,335

Was a Biden +10 district, so that seems to be an R+2 swing.
weird breakdown as well.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on May 18, 2022, 03:48:22 PM
Democrats held Pennsylvania's 5th Senate District which was vacant after the incumbent was elected to a judge spot in November.

DILLON, JAMES
(DEM)
54.05%
    Votes: 14,510
OROPEZA, SAMUEL E
(REP)
45.95%
    Votes: 12,335

Was a Biden +10 district, so that seems to be an R+2 swing.
weird breakdown as well.


Reporting error for that ward, perhaps?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on May 26, 2022, 05:54:37 AM
Interestingly, Democrats seem to be holding up a bit better in Pennsylvania in general than in much of the country.  I kinda wonder if the Republican wave may be a little weaker there in November compared to much of the country. 


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on June 14, 2022, 10:59:43 PM


Outperforming both Biden and Mills for the record.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ProgressiveModerate on June 15, 2022, 12:39:36 AM
Kinda strange cause special elections have been a really mixed bag thus far, but again special elections tend to have really weird dynamics and poor turnout that are only a slice of the electorate.

Also, in Maine Democrats seem to ahve residual downballot support, especially in the northern p[art of the state which has gotten much redder on the federal level; kinda the inverse of what we see in VT and NH where Rs tend to outperform by default.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on June 15, 2022, 09:22:06 AM
Interestingly, Democrats seem to be holding up a bit better in Pennsylvania in general than in much of the country.  I kinda wonder if the Republican wave may be a little weaker there in November compared to much of the country. 

Pennsylvania tends to buck the national trend quite a bit, we're just a "quirky" state I guess. 2014 is a great example, but again, I will always keep bringing up the 2021 SC race as well. Biden's approval was barely better than it was at that point, and Dems only lost that race by <1%.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MRS DONNA SHALALA on June 22, 2022, 12:56:12 PM


Outperforming both Biden and Mills for the record.

That's a 7 point improvement over 2020 for the dems!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on October 23, 2022, 01:33:09 PM
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/10/08/democrats-push-to-win-texas-house-by-promising-massive-health-care-expansion/

With Abbott lead down to two Ds aim to take TX H


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: EastwoodS on November 08, 2022, 05:12:57 PM
There’s a one hour wait to vote in Ft. Myers right now.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 08, 2022, 05:24:05 PM
There’s a one hour wait to vote in Ft. Myers right now.

Terrible mismanagement by the Republican state government!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: EastwoodS on November 08, 2022, 05:28:57 PM
There’s a one hour wait to vote in Ft. Myers right now.

Terrible mismanagement by the Republican state government!
Awful yes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Spectator on November 12, 2022, 03:57:13 PM
Jen Kiggans’ election to Congress will trigger a special election in her old blue leaning state senate district in Virginia Beach. Democrat Virginia Beach city councilman and former football player Aaron Rouse has already announced and raised over $100k and looks like the early frontrunner.

https://www.13newsnow.com/article/news/local/virginia/virginia-senate-needs-special-election-fill-remainder-jen-kiggans-seat/291-4073077b-0e1d-42f7-9b53-77aebbe6f91e

The seat was Biden +9 but Youngkin +4. Funny enough it seems like it voted for Luria in the VA-02 race since the seat is a couple points bluer than VA Beach as a whole and Luria tied in Virginia Beach.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Spectator on November 14, 2022, 02:38:49 PM
Luria endorsed Rouse today at his campaign launch, so I think it’s a safe bet he’s the Dem nominee.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 14, 2022, 05:18:28 PM


201 for majority (for some reason).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 14, 2022, 05:47:21 PM
What happens if it ties 200-200?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: xavier110 on November 14, 2022, 06:10:42 PM

Knowing NH, they probably hold a vote on best form of tie breaker, and then hold a public vote on who hosts the tie breaker, and then have another vote on whether they need to have a convention on tie breaking methods to reevaluate their options.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 14, 2022, 10:19:39 PM

Given that the people in this chamber are paid the equivalent of nothing and few are permeant politicians (what do you expect), probably defections. Not actually that uncommon here.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 16, 2022, 04:45:28 PM


Immediate special election in North Georgia likely - Safe R, Dems didn't run anyone here last week.


One of the recounts in NH has presently resulted in a Tie. One potential outcome if this persists is a special election, which may decide the chamber pending other recounts.


PA Dems presently lead in 112 seats, or a bare majority. However, one Dem died before election day, one is Summer Lee and going to Washington, and one is set to become the new Lt. Gov. All three represent(ed) deep blue east Allegheny seats, so after the inaugural session Reps will have a few weeks with more state reps until the seats are filled.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 17, 2022, 03:17:16 PM


Alert for potential special in western MI (Muskegon and northern lakeshore). Won by 5.6%.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on November 23, 2022, 11:01:46 PM

D-trending seat, but probably still out of reach at this time, Trump+4 in 2020 (I imagine Evers lost it by a similar margin based on the areas.)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Hope For A New Era on November 26, 2022, 10:20:02 PM

D-trending seat, but probably still out of reach at this time, Trump+4 in 2020 (I imagine Evers lost it by a similar margin based on the areas.)

Trump +4 seat might be doable with appropriate turnout patterns. Any clear candidates? There is one D state House incumbent who lives in the district, perhaps they would be interested.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 28, 2022, 04:57:26 PM
NH found an error in the recount that flipped a 20-some vote Republican lead to a 1 vote Democratic lead.  It is back to a 20-some vote Republican lead and this was just upheld in court.  With this, it appears R's have secured 201 seats and outright control of the chamber.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 28, 2022, 05:02:13 PM
Luria endorsed Rouse today at his campaign launch, so I think it’s a safe bet he’s the Dem nominee.

This one will be really interesting to watch.  Because the new state senate map unwound a clearly gerrymandered seat that linked up several college towns in western VA, Dems will need to pick up at least one seat elsewhere to hold the chamber on the new maps.  However, there are 3-4 good opportunities to do this and the new median seat is left of the state.  The best 2 opportunities are in Richmond and western NOVA. 

This special election takes place on the old maps, which should favor the Dem pretty meaningfully.  However, if the Dem becomes the incumbent, they will have to win a true toss up seat in November 2023 to stay.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 28, 2022, 07:12:14 PM
Luria endorsed Rouse today at his campaign launch, so I think it’s a safe bet he’s the Dem nominee.

This one will be really interesting to watch.  Because the new state senate map unwound a clearly gerrymandered seat that linked up several college towns in western VA, Dems will need to pick up at least one seat elsewhere to hold the chamber on the new maps.  However, there are 3-4 good opportunities to do this and the new median seat is left of the state.  The best 2 opportunities are in Richmond and western NOVA. 

This special election takes place on the old maps, which should favor the Dem pretty meaningfully.  However, if the Dem becomes the incumbent, they will have to win a true toss up seat in November 2023 to stay.

There is a new Biden + 20 Virginia Beach seat that I believe the Dem nominee said he is running in regardless.  The true tossup seat is the Delmarva peninsula seat that Lynwood Lewis holds.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 28, 2022, 07:19:22 PM
Luria endorsed Rouse today at his campaign launch, so I think it’s a safe bet he’s the Dem nominee.

This one will be really interesting to watch.  Because the new state senate map unwound a clearly gerrymandered seat that linked up several college towns in western VA, Dems will need to pick up at least one seat elsewhere to hold the chamber on the new maps.  However, there are 3-4 good opportunities to do this and the new median seat is left of the state.  The best 2 opportunities are in Richmond and western NOVA. 

This special election takes place on the old maps, which should favor the Dem pretty meaningfully.  However, if the Dem becomes the incumbent, they will have to win a true toss up seat in November 2023 to stay.

There is a new Biden + 20 Virginia Beach seat that I believe the Dem nominee said he is running in regardless.  The true tossup seat is the Delmarva peninsula seat that Lynwood Lewis holds.

Oh, interesting.  I figured they would force the new guy/gal into the most competitive seat in the area.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Spectator on November 29, 2022, 01:16:14 PM
Luria endorsed Rouse today at his campaign launch, so I think it’s a safe bet he’s the Dem nominee.

This one will be really interesting to watch.  Because the new state senate map unwound a clearly gerrymandered seat that linked up several college towns in western VA, Dems will need to pick up at least one seat elsewhere to hold the chamber on the new maps.  However, there are 3-4 good opportunities to do this and the new median seat is left of the state.  The best 2 opportunities are in Richmond and western NOVA. 

This special election takes place on the old maps, which should favor the Dem pretty meaningfully.  However, if the Dem becomes the incumbent, they will have to win a true toss up seat in November 2023 to stay.

There is a new Biden + 20 Virginia Beach seat that I believe the Dem nominee said he is running in regardless.  The true tossup seat is the Delmarva peninsula seat that Lynwood Lewis holds.

The special is taking place under the old lines, which was Biden +10. The general will be in a Biden +20 seat.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on November 30, 2022, 12:40:11 PM
Luria endorsed Rouse today at his campaign launch, so I think it’s a safe bet he’s the Dem nominee.

This one will be really interesting to watch.  Because the new state senate map unwound a clearly gerrymandered seat that linked up several college towns in western VA, Dems will need to pick up at least one seat elsewhere to hold the chamber on the new maps.  However, there are 3-4 good opportunities to do this and the new median seat is left of the state.  The best 2 opportunities are in Richmond and western NOVA. 

This special election takes place on the old maps, which should favor the Dem pretty meaningfully.  However, if the Dem becomes the incumbent, they will have to win a true toss up seat in November 2023 to stay.

There is a new Biden + 20 Virginia Beach seat that I believe the Dem nominee said he is running in regardless.  The true tossup seat is the Delmarva peninsula seat that Lynwood Lewis holds.

The special is taking place under the old lines, which was Biden +10. The general will be in a Biden +20 seat.

Did Biden win the new version of the (currently Dem-held) Eastern Shore seat?  If so, by how much?  Do we also have Youngkin numbers for it?

Update: I can see that it was a Youngkin blowout with 57.7%.  Overall, there were 20 Yougkin seats and 20 McAuliffe seats in the VA state senate.  There are exactly 21 seats where Youngkin did worse than his statewide margin (R+2).  2 of the Youngkin seats have Dem incumbents.  I believe this Virginia Beach CD is the only McAuliffe seat that (formerly) had an R incumbent.   

In the 2022 congressional elections, the Eastern Shore district was 54% R.   Democratic candidates won 24 seats, winning the same 21 by more than their statewide margin (D+3).

Based on this, I do expect Dems to most likely hold the chamber. 

Biden obviously won a couple more seats with the double digit statewide margin.   


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 30, 2022, 01:24:06 PM
Luria endorsed Rouse today at his campaign launch, so I think it’s a safe bet he’s the Dem nominee.

This one will be really interesting to watch.  Because the new state senate map unwound a clearly gerrymandered seat that linked up several college towns in western VA, Dems will need to pick up at least one seat elsewhere to hold the chamber on the new maps.  However, there are 3-4 good opportunities to do this and the new median seat is left of the state.  The best 2 opportunities are in Richmond and western NOVA.  

This special election takes place on the old maps, which should favor the Dem pretty meaningfully.  However, if the Dem becomes the incumbent, they will have to win a true toss up seat in November 2023 to stay.

There is a new Biden + 20 Virginia Beach seat that I believe the Dem nominee said he is running in regardless.  The true tossup seat is the Delmarva peninsula seat that Lynwood Lewis holds.

The special is taking place under the old lines, which was Biden +10. The general will be in a Biden +20 seat.

Did Biden win the new version of the (currently Dem-held) Eastern Shore seat?  If so, by how much?  Do we also have Youngkin numbers for it?

Update: I can see that it was a Youngkin blowout with 57.7%.  Overall, there were 20 Yougkin seats and 20 McAuliffe seats in the VA state senate.  There are exactly 21 seats where Youngkin did worse than his statewide margin (R+2).  2 of the Youngkin seats have Dem incumbents.  I believe this Virginia Beach CD is the only McAuliffe seat that (formerly) had an R incumbent.    

In the 2022 congressional elections, the Eastern Shore district was 54% R.   Democratic candidates won 24 seats, winning the same 21 by more than their statewide margin (D+3).

Based on this, I do expect Dems to most likely hold the chamber.  

Biden obviously won a couple more seats with the double digit statewide margin.  

Trump very narrowly carried the Dem held Eastern Shore seat.  The expectation was that if Kiggins didn’t beat Luria, Kiggins would have run for reelection in this district.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 30, 2022, 08:31:56 PM
So the NY Dems are moving against recent assembly candidate and presumptive victor in AD-49, Lester Chang. (https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2022/11/30/brooklyn-republican-lester-chang-assembly-vote-unseat-special-election) Prior to 2022, Chang was kinda a perennial GOP candidate, running twice for seats that covered lower Manhattan, his prior address. This year he ran for and marginally won a majority-Chinese seat in the Sunset Park/South Brooklyn area versus an Italian Democratic incumbent (note something similar happened in the state senate seat only the ethnicity of the parties candidates are swapped, flipping the results). During the campaign there were accusations that he had not moved to Brooklyn at least 1 year in advance of the vote, as per NY law, so legally could not stand.

Residency requirements are kinda BS, but the electorate clearly believes them important as seen by the recent 90-10 victory for stricter requirements in MD, and they vary by state depending on how important the voters of a specific state or their politicians deem them necessary. So it is in the Assembly's right to refuse to seat Chang and have Hochul call a Special Election, though awkwardly Chang could legally stand for said special and get seated if he wins (hopefully this time vs a Chinese Dem).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 05, 2022, 08:56:33 AM
Regarding the Jan. 3 special election to replace the late Georgia House Speaker David Ralston:


Talk show host and Georgia House candidate accused of illegal voting]Talk show host and Georgia House candidate accused of illegal voting (https://www.ajc.com/politics/brian-k-pritchard-accused-of-illegal-voting-amid-run-for-georgia-house/GJX7SSIHLVHLJNSIWHUKVWLHQI/)

Quote
Conservative North Georgia talk show host Brian K. Pritchard, a candidate for the state House who rails against election fraud, allegedly voted illegally nine times while serving a felony sentence in a $33,000 forgery and theft case, state officials say.

The Georgia attorney general’s office wrote Thursday that Pritchard broke state law each time he voted before his sentence was completed, according to a filing with the Office of State Administrative Hearings. State law prohibits felons from voting.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on December 05, 2022, 09:11:28 AM
Regarding the Jan. 3 special election to replace the late Georgia House Speaker David Ralston:


Talk show host and Georgia House candidate accused of illegal voting]Talk show host and Georgia House candidate accused of illegal voting (https://www.ajc.com/politics/brian-k-pritchard-accused-of-illegal-voting-amid-run-for-georgia-house/GJX7SSIHLVHLJNSIWHUKVWLHQI/)

Quote
Conservative North Georgia talk show host Brian K. Pritchard, a candidate for the state House who rails against election fraud, allegedly voted illegally nine times while serving a felony sentence in a $33,000 forgery and theft case, state officials say.

The Georgia attorney general’s office wrote Thursday that Pritchard broke state law each time he voted before his sentence was completed, according to a filing with the Office of State Administrative Hearings. State law prohibits felons from voting.

By now it's a surprise when a Republican doesn't do what he accuses others of doing.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 08, 2022, 10:28:09 AM



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: lfromnj on December 08, 2022, 06:30:21 PM


FL special election . Overall a pretty safe district in Marion County that excludes the black precincts of Ocala.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on December 10, 2022, 09:11:47 AM


Sad, guy was only 45 and that sounds like a terrible way to go.

District is Safe D but a special could provide some interesting insight on college campus turnout.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gracile on December 10, 2022, 12:07:07 PM


Sad, guy was only 45 and that sounds like a terrible way to go.

District is Safe D but a special could provide some interesting insight on college campus turnout.

Illinois doesn't have special elections for state legislators. A member of the same party as the departing member is appointed to the seat when it becomes vacant.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Anti Democrat Democrat Club on December 13, 2022, 07:25:23 PM


Our first special election in NH, on February 6th, is a tiebreaker to resolve a 2022 election.

Incumbent Democrat Chuck Grassie originally lost to David Walker, another elected official, by 1 vote. A recount later revealed a tie, causing both candidates to withdraw their challenges and let it go to the state legislature.

There really isn't much settled precedent here on what to do in this situation. NH politics being arcane as it is, left it to the state legislature to decide. They had two options: hold another election, or break the tie themselves. They narrowly voted to hold another election, and here we are.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: NOVA Green on December 13, 2022, 10:58:01 PM
Apologies if it has already been mentioned, but didn't see it elsewhere.

Really wondering what Atlas Nation thinks about this one....

Very, very long article so apologies if my quotes might have been longer than normal.

If so, Mods pls merge...

Quote
More than a month after the elections in Pennsylvania, which were among the most closely watched in the country, a question remains unanswered in the state’s House of Representatives: Who, exactly, is in charge?

For now, both the Democratic and Republican parties are claiming a majority in the chamber, and representatives from both parties have declared themselves the House majority leader. Both are accusing the other party of ignoring the will of the voters, the rule of law or some combination thereof. With the House set to reconvene, and presumably to choose a speaker in less than three weeks, the question now sits with the courts.

Quote
Democrats also won a majority of seats in the State House for the first time in a dozen years, even as Republicans maintained control of the State Senate. But the margin in the House appeared to be wafer-thin, 102-101, decided by fewer than 65 votes in a race in the Philadelphia suburbs. It turned out to be even more tenuous — one of the victorious lawmakers was dead.

Quote
Republicans saw a stalemate. Until a special election could be held in Mr. DeLuca’s district, they reasoned, each party had 101 representatives, and neither could claim a majority in the House.

Quote
What happens now is anyone’s guess.

Quote
Among them is a Senate bill that would put a handful of constitutional amendments proposed by Republicans on a statewide ballot — including ones that would establish a voter ID requirement, expand the legislature’s power and assert that there is no state constitutional right to abortion. If each chamber approved the bill during the upcoming legislative session, the questions would be put to a statewide vote.




https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/13/us/pennsylvania-house-control.html


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on December 15, 2022, 04:20:18 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 16, 2022, 09:14:50 PM
We might have a special election soon in Georgia HD-116119:




Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 16, 2022, 09:41:28 PM
We might have a special election soon in Georgia HD-116:



The new seat is 119. 116 was last decades version. Seats are roughly numbered north-south, so the reapportionment of districts shifted the numbering scheme around even though the seat barely changed.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: CityofSinners on December 20, 2022, 07:45:31 AM
@Nova Green

This is a proper mess. Legally speaking I can't think dems can't do much. Whichever party has a quorum and the most votes in the chambers can set the agenda.

It is dubious from a moral and small d democratic standpoint to circumvent the voters will like this. Dems share some of the blame for running candidates for two offices at once.
A resign to run law and stricter rules for setting special election dates would help in the future to prevent a mess like this.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 26, 2022, 08:49:03 AM
Georgia will have linked special elections on January 31.  SD-11 opened up when Sen. Dean Burke (R-Bainbridge) resigned to become the Department of Community Health’s new chief medical officer.  Then in HD-172, Rep. Sam Watson (R-Moultrie) resigned to run for the SD-11 vacancy.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/south-georgia-state-house-member-resigns-from-office/P232W2HKH5EQXF4ESCCJY3U6BU/ 


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 27, 2022, 04:37:46 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on December 30, 2022, 08:57:05 AM
I'm in Virginia Beach and just saw an attack ad hitting Kevin Adams on abortion, seems like this might be an expensive race given how closely divided the state senate is.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ProgressiveModerate on December 31, 2022, 10:02:22 PM
I'm in Virginia Beach and just saw an attack ad hitting Kevin Adams on abortion, seems like this might be an expensive race given how closely divided the state senate is.

Actually quite important, given there’s like 1 or 2 conservative/moderate Democrats in the VA-Sen who may help pass mild abortion restrictions and such


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on January 01, 2023, 04:07:20 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 03, 2023, 03:53:15 PM
Better here I guess?



D"s + Half of R's elect Jason Stephens over Derek Merrin. More info shortly, but might immediately throw a wrench into any attempt at mid-decade redraws under the current state framework.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 03, 2023, 04:43:12 PM


Directly related to the 2 soon to be 3 special elections in Allegheny: since D's lack the votes presently to command a majority, they get a good deal to ensure ideal functionality.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on January 03, 2023, 04:49:13 PM
Could bipartisanship actually be coming back into favor in this country?  That would be a very encouraging development.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: NewYorkExpress on January 05, 2023, 04:00:09 PM
We will have a special election in Connecticut HD-100 after State Representative Quentin Williams died in a traffic accident. (https://ballotpedia.org/How_vacancies_are_filled_in_state_legislatures)

Quote
A Connecticut state representative was killed overnight in a wrong-way highway crash after having attended the governor’s inaugural ball and his own swearing-in ceremony for a third term, House Democratic leaders said Thursday.

Quentin Williams, a Democrat from Middletown known as “Q,” died in the crash on Route 9 in Cromwell.

He was 39.

State police said both drivers were killed and one of the vehicles became fully engulfed in flames. State police have not yet released the names of the victims.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Hope For A New Era on January 05, 2023, 07:49:01 PM
Better here I guess?



D"s + Half of R's elect Jason Stephens over Derek Merrin. More info shortly, but might immediately throw a wrench into any attempt at mid-decade redraws under the current state framework.



Directly related to the 2 soon to be 3 special elections in Allegheny: since D's lack the votes presently to command a majority, they get a good deal to ensure ideal functionality.


2x Combo!

May they be omens.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Virginiá on January 05, 2023, 08:27:50 PM
Given Republicans still control the state senate and this likely puts those power grab / voter suppression constitutional amendments Republicans wanted to ram through with their brief pseudo-majority on the shelf, sounds like a good outcome for Democrats.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on January 08, 2023, 12:42:21 PM
What are the odds the D wins Kiggans old seat this Tuesday? The early voting #s look promising.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ProgressiveModerate on January 08, 2023, 09:04:56 PM
What are the odds the D wins Kiggans old seat this Tuesday? The early voting #s look promising.

Generally, special elections in VA tend to be dreadful for Ds, but most other things seem to be working in Ds favor:

This is a Biden + 10 district, though it did go for Youngkin by 4.
In 2022, Ds won most Biden + 10 seats with relative ease nationally, with some obvious exceptions that had unique circumstances.
D candidate seems slightly better than R imo, but I'm prolly biased.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Spectator on January 10, 2023, 09:24:36 AM
What are the odds the D wins Kiggans old seat this Tuesday? The early voting #s look promising.

Lean D. Democrats seem to be taking it seriously.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Pollster on January 10, 2023, 09:39:04 AM
What are the odds the D wins Kiggans old seat this Tuesday? The early voting #s look promising.

Youngkin idiotically announced his abortion ban proposal a solid month before this special election, giving Democrats ample time to use it and use it well.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on January 10, 2023, 11:31:32 AM
Interesting, Kiggans only just barely won this district in 2019 and actually lost it in last year's House race



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Spectator on January 10, 2023, 11:54:09 AM
Interesting, Kiggans only just barely won this district in 2019 and actually lost it in last year's House race



VPAP is also being seriously misleading here. Completely ignoring 2020 and 2018.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mr.Phips on January 10, 2023, 05:11:54 PM
Interesting, Kiggans only just barely won this district in 2019 and actually lost it in last year's House race



VPAP is also being seriously misleading here. Completely ignoring 2020 and 2018.

And also, I thought Hillary won here in 2016. 


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: BenjiG98 on January 10, 2023, 05:37:32 PM
Interesting, Kiggans only just barely won this district in 2019 and actually lost it in last year's House race



VPAP is also being seriously misleading here. Completely ignoring 2020 and 2018.

And also, I thought Hillary won here in 2016. 
She did win it by 0.3%.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on January 10, 2023, 06:00:02 PM
Interesting, Kiggans only just barely won this district in 2019 and actually lost it in last year's House race



VPAP is also being seriously misleading here. Completely ignoring 2020 and 2018.

And also, I thought Hillary won here in 2016. 
She did win it by 0.3%.

Is this a result of the issue where VA didn't allocate absentees by precinct until literally last year?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mr.Phips on January 10, 2023, 06:03:00 PM
Interesting, Kiggans only just barely won this district in 2019 and actually lost it in last year's House race



VPAP is also being seriously misleading here. Completely ignoring 2020 and 2018.

And also, I thought Hillary won here in 2016. 
She did win it by 0.3%.

Is this a result of the issue where VA didn't allocate absentees by precinct until literally last year?

If that’s the case, then maybe Turpin actually won in 2019?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Person Man on January 10, 2023, 06:11:17 PM
At least if Democrats win tonight, it basically kills Youngkin's legislative agenda.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 10, 2023, 07:27:58 PM
Apparently there's additional special elections in Safe R hd24, and Safe D Hd35, but you wouldn't know it from the media coverage.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: CityofSinners on January 10, 2023, 07:31:04 PM
https://twitter.com/vpapupdates Has live coverage


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GALeftist on January 10, 2023, 08:00:59 PM
I *think* I'd rather be Rouse with 10k early ballots outstanding? Knock on wood


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 10, 2023, 08:02:41 PM
Could Virginia be competitive in 2024? I could see it being closer than a state like Michigan at least. Youngkin seems to have really shifted the state to the right.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on January 10, 2023, 08:07:18 PM
Could Virginia be competitive in 2024? I could see it being closer than a state like Michigan at least. Youngkin seems to have really shifted the state to the right.

one election is not indicative of a trend.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gass3268 on January 10, 2023, 08:09:37 PM
Could Virginia be competitive in 2024? I could see it being closer than a state like Michigan at least. Youngkin seems to have really shifted the state to the right.

It's more so that Democrats in Virginia have to relay on minority turnout, which has been down since Biden was elected.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Nyvin on January 10, 2023, 08:10:57 PM
I *think* I'd rather be Rouse with 10k early ballots outstanding? Knock on wood

Also looks like the more Republican northern part of the district is reporting faster than the Democratic southern part.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lief 🗽 on January 10, 2023, 08:16:00 PM
Could Virginia be competitive in 2024? I could see it being closer than a state like Michigan at least. Youngkin seems to have really shifted the state to the right.

one election is not indicative of a trend.

2021 and 2022 were already pretty bad for Democrats in this state.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: CityofSinners on January 10, 2023, 08:22:40 PM
Could Virginia be competitive in 2024? I could see it being closer than a state like Michigan at least. Youngkin seems to have really shifted the state to the right.
How much did Beshear or Edwards shift their states to the left?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gass3268 on January 10, 2023, 08:24:31 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gass3268 on January 10, 2023, 08:26:50 PM
Looks like Adams narrowly won in person early, Rouse is winning absentees big with still a 1/3rd left to count.





Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Brittain33 on January 10, 2023, 08:30:34 PM
Could Virginia be competitive in 2024? I could see it being closer than a state like Michigan at least. Youngkin seems to have really shifted the state to the right.

one election is not indicative of a trend.

2021 and 2022 were already pretty bad for Democrats in this state.

2022 was mixed, a bad 2022 would have seen Spanberger lose. It does seem like Republicans have rebounded a bit in Hampton Roads and near Richmond but not at all in NoVa.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Nyvin on January 10, 2023, 08:30:55 PM
Rouse pulls ahead by 623 votes.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Nyvin on January 10, 2023, 08:31:46 PM
Could Virginia be competitive in 2024? I could see it being closer than a state like Michigan at least. Youngkin seems to have really shifted the state to the right.

one election is not indicative of a trend.

2021 and 2022 were already pretty bad for Democrats in this state.

2022 was mixed, a bad 2022 would have seen Spanberger lose. It does seem like Republicans have rebounded a bit in Hampton Roads and near Richmond but not at all in NoVa.

Hung Cao did incredible in VA-10, but I assume that's a fluke and not a new norm.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gass3268 on January 10, 2023, 08:31:57 PM
5 precincts left, Rouse up by 623 votes.  


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gass3268 on January 10, 2023, 08:33:35 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Spectator on January 10, 2023, 08:39:11 PM
Luria overwhelming won 4/5 of the remaining election day precincts. Rouse has this.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ferguson97 on January 10, 2023, 08:42:36 PM
It's crazy how underdiscussed this race it, it will make or break the GOP trifecta in Virginia. Youngkin having another 2 years of a trifecta could make a huge difference in a future presidential run.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ProgressiveModerate on January 10, 2023, 08:42:58 PM
The precinct map on VAP looks like an R win, but the few black D precincts are just so lopsided.

It's also nice to see black Dems be able to win more and more regularly outside of 40%+ black districts.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ferguson97 on January 10, 2023, 08:45:27 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Nyvin on January 10, 2023, 08:45:48 PM
It's crazy how underdiscussed this race it, it will make or break the GOP trifecta in Virginia. Youngkin having another 2 years of a trifecta could make a huge difference in a future presidential run.

Youngkin never had a trifecta, and R's held this seat prior.  Rouse winning would make the Senate go from 21D-19R to 22D-18R.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gracile on January 10, 2023, 08:46:05 PM
Yeah, Rouse has this.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: CityofSinners on January 10, 2023, 08:51:19 PM
This election feels both like a re-run of 2022 and a preview of the VA 2023 election. Dems go all-in on abortion and repubs do the same for crime/inflation.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 10, 2023, 08:57:30 PM
The precinct map on VAP looks like an R win, but the few black D precincts are just so lopsided.

It's also nice to see black Dems be able to win more and more regularly outside of 40%+ black districts.

You do know the mail/early aren't yet allocated to precinct because of VA law?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ProgressiveModerate on January 10, 2023, 08:58:11 PM
The precinct map on VAP looks like an R win, but the few black D precincts are just so lopsided.

It's also nice to see black Dems be able to win more and more regularly outside of 40%+ black districts.

You do know the mail/early aren't yet allocated to precinct because of VA law?

Oh that makes a lot more sense. I was like goddam


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gass3268 on January 10, 2023, 09:06:44 PM
This is great because Republicans+Morrissey no longer have the trifecta in VA.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: libertpaulian on January 10, 2023, 09:10:54 PM
Rs have held this seat for almost 30 years. This is historic.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ferguson97 on January 10, 2023, 09:16:37 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: libertpaulian on January 10, 2023, 09:19:41 PM

The Bitecofer Theory destroyed yet again.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on January 10, 2023, 09:20:21 PM
Winning by 0.9% in a Youngkin +4.3 seat would verbatim be consistent with holding at 22D on the new map, with the potential 23rd D seat (Youngkin +5.2, also in Hampton Roads) going to a recount.  The 21st D seat on the new map is meaningfully easier than this one at Youngkin +0.6 and it's also in high turnout outer NOVA.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Nyvin on January 10, 2023, 09:21:05 PM
What's great for Rouse is that he has a perfect safe D seat to run in for the November election that has no incumbent.   SD-22 is Biden+20 and covers a good portion of the old SD-7.   He'll have that seat all decade easily.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on January 10, 2023, 09:23:02 PM
What's great for Rouse is that he has a perfect safe D seat to run in for the November election that has no incumbent.   SD-22 is Biden+20 and covers a good portion of the old SD-7.   He'll have that seat all decade easily.

I think he challenges Kiggans for the CD in 2024.

Not sure how wise that would be given he underperformed Luria's loss at the CD level meaningfully tonight.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Vosem on January 10, 2023, 09:24:53 PM
This is great because Republicans+Morrissey no longer have the trifecta in VA.

Morrissey is an independent, sure, but he's representing a deep-blue seat and usually votes with Democrats.

Anyway, I think the VA-7 result is fine for national Republicans. It represents a small swing right from the 2022 results (Luria won here by 3 points, Rouse by just 1) in a place that's trending Democratic really fast (Clinton+1, Biden+10). By swing from 2020 this suggests a national environment of R+4, and by swing from 2022 it's R+5. (Also, definitely a point of evidence against Democrats usually having a turnout advantage in specials. OTOH, the fair reaction would be that traditional majority parties often have turnout advantages in specials, so maybe this result could coexist with Democrats usually having a turnout advantage in special elections).

It's kind of a bad result for Virginia Republicans, though; as mentioned above this is a seat they had held for decades, and their victory here was one of a few bright spots in 2017. They probably don't have a route to a state Senate majority without this seat, or ones much like it.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ferguson97 on January 10, 2023, 09:32:28 PM
Democrats focused heavily on abortion for this campaign. It's an absolute killer for the GOP, my god.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on January 10, 2023, 09:33:39 PM
This is great because Republicans+Morrissey no longer have the trifecta in VA.

Morrissey is an independent, sure, but he's representing a deep-blue seat and usually votes with Democrats.

Anyway, I think the VA-7 result is fine for national Republicans. It represents a small swing right from the 2022 results (Luria won here by 3 points, Rouse by just 1) in a place that's trending Democratic really fast (Clinton+1, Biden+10). By swing from 2020 this suggests a national environment of R+4, and by swing from 2022 it's R+5. (Also, definitely a point of evidence against Democrats usually having a turnout advantage in specials. OTOH, the fair reaction would be that traditional majority parties often have turnout advantages in specials, so maybe this result could coexist with Democrats usually having a turnout advantage in special elections).

It's kind of a bad result for Virginia Republicans, though; as mentioned above this is a seat they had held for decades, and their victory here was one of a few bright spots in 2017. They probably don't have a route to a state Senate majority without this seat, or ones much like it.

While I agree with your points overall, it should be noted that VA Dems have consistently performed poorly in specials south of the DC area.  Historically, it's been similar to the R turnout machine in TX specials.  There was a special in the Hampton Roads senate district adjacent to this one in 2014 and the Dem only won an Obama +5-10 seat by <10 votes!

I would describe recent Dem results in VA as "good enough to win statewide by 2012-16 margins."  Looks like Biden's 2020 #'s really were a one-off, though.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: CityofSinners on January 10, 2023, 09:40:08 PM
The nice thing for partisans is, that you have so many comparisons to make the result look good for your side.
Republicans can talk about the seat being Biden+10 and trending left, their candidate outperformed Kiggans by 2 points, abortion not hurting them that much.
Democrats can talk about the seat being in republican hands for 30 years, Youngkin winning the seat by 4 and their prior bad performance in VA special elections.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Vosem on January 10, 2023, 09:40:18 PM
Democrats focused heavily on abortion for this campaign. It's an absolute killer for the GOP, my god.

Biden+10 --> Luria+3 --> D+1?

No, it isn't. And kind of too bad, because the GOP would be a better party if they kicked this one.

This is great because Republicans+Morrissey no longer have the trifecta in VA.

Morrissey is an independent, sure, but he's representing a deep-blue seat and usually votes with Democrats.

Anyway, I think the VA-7 result is fine for national Republicans. It represents a small swing right from the 2022 results (Luria won here by 3 points, Rouse by just 1) in a place that's trending Democratic really fast (Clinton+1, Biden+10). By swing from 2020 this suggests a national environment of R+4, and by swing from 2022 it's R+5. (Also, definitely a point of evidence against Democrats usually having a turnout advantage in specials. OTOH, the fair reaction would be that traditional majority parties often have turnout advantages in specials, so maybe this result could coexist with Democrats usually having a turnout advantage in special elections).

It's kind of a bad result for Virginia Republicans, though; as mentioned above this is a seat they had held for decades, and their victory here was one of a few bright spots in 2017. They probably don't have a route to a state Senate majority without this seat, or ones much like it.

While I agree with your points overall, it should be noted that VA Dems have consistently performed poorly in specials south of the DC area.  Historically, it's been similar to the R turnout machine in TX specials.  There was a special in the Hampton Roads senate district adjacent to this one in 2014 and the Dem only won an Obama +5-10 seat by <10 votes!

I would describe recent Dem results in VA as "good enough to win statewide by 2012-16 margins."  Looks like Biden's 2020 #'s really were a one-off, though.

Yeah, my post points out that one reason this result might not imply as strong an outcome for the GOP as it seems is that this is a historically GOP area, and both parties often overperform in specials in places that are trending against them. You get way fewer new registrations for specials, and relatively new voters are less likely to hear about them, so you get an older electorate -- not just in years-lived, but in years-lived-in-the-constituency.

There are two other special elections going on in VA tonight -- one in a safe D area, and one in a safe R -- how are they doing?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: libertpaulian on January 10, 2023, 09:45:55 PM
The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario is a reelected Biden, Speaker Jeffries, and McConnell controlling the Senate calendar once again (unless Sherrod Brown pulls off a miracle).



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on January 10, 2023, 09:47:21 PM
There are two other special elections going on in VA tonight -- one in a safe D area, and one in a safe R -- how are they doing?

I think the Dem in Fairfax is doing worse than McAuliffe, let alone Biden. The Republican in Appalachia is also underperforming Trump by a decent amount.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on January 10, 2023, 09:48:41 PM
The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario is a reelected Biden, Speaker Jeffries, and McConnell controlling the Senate calendar once again (unless Sherrod Brown pulls off a miracle).



This result 1. wasn't all that amazing for Dems (their candidate did 2% worse than Luria in 2022) and more importantly 2. shouldn't be extrapolated outside of VA.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: libertpaulian on January 10, 2023, 09:48:44 PM
There are two other special elections going on in VA tonight -- one in a safe D area, and one in a safe R -- how are they doing?

I think the Dem in Fairfax is doing worse than McAuliffe and the Republican in Appalachia is also underperforming Trump by a decent amount.
lol nothing makes sense anymore


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Spectator on January 10, 2023, 09:48:58 PM
What's great for Rouse is that he has a perfect safe D seat to run in for the November election that has no incumbent.   SD-22 is Biden+20 and covers a good portion of the old SD-7.   He'll have that seat all decade easily.

I think he challenges Kiggans for the CD in 2024.

Not sure how wise that would be given he underperformed Luria's loss at the CD level meaningfully tonight.

Minority turnout is always lower than white turnout in off years.

I think Rouse will run against Kiggans at some point, either in 2024 or 2026. He has the ambition for it.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on January 10, 2023, 09:49:29 PM
There are two other special elections going on in VA tonight -- one in a safe D area, and one in a safe R -- how are they doing?

I think the Dem in Fairfax is doing worse than McAuliffe and the Republican in Appalachia is also underperforming Trump by a decent amount.
lol nothing makes sense anymore


Nah, it's just mean reversion in specials most likely.   There's also this weird thing where VA Dems have always done better in the state senate.  They were only ever below 19/40 seats for one cycle (2003-07), while they got consistently blown out in the HoD for a couple decades. 


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: libertpaulian on January 10, 2023, 09:50:25 PM
The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario is a reelected Biden, Speaker Jeffries, and McConnell controlling the Senate calendar once again (unless Sherrod Brown pulls off a miracle).



This result 1. wasn't all that amazing for Dems (their candidate did 2% worse than Luria in 2022) and more importantly 2. shouldn't be extrapolated outside of VA.
All true, but this is a special election in the dead of winter during the first full "normal" work week after the holiday season. People have just gotten over Christmas, Hanukkah, and/or NYE celebrations and are still trying to get back in a political mood.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on January 10, 2023, 09:56:38 PM
Democrats focused heavily on abortion for this campaign. It's an absolute killer for the GOP, my god.

Biden+10 --> Luria+3 --> D+1?
More accurately. Youngkin +10 -> D+1 because it's ridiculous to compare high turnout federal elections to low turnout specials especially when the democrat vote is depedant on low turnout black communities.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on January 10, 2023, 09:59:44 PM
Democrats focused heavily on abortion for this campaign. It's an absolute killer for the GOP, my god.

Biden+10 --> Luria+3 --> D+1?
More accurately. Youngkin +10 -> D+1 because it's ridiculous to compare high turnout federal elections to low turnout specials especially when the democrat vote is depedant on low turnout black communities.

This seat was Youngkin +4.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ferguson97 on January 10, 2023, 10:01:41 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Vosem on January 10, 2023, 10:07:07 PM
Democrats focused heavily on abortion for this campaign. It's an absolute killer for the GOP, my god.

Biden+10 --> Luria+3 --> D+1?
More accurately. Youngkin +10 -> D+1 because it's ridiculous to compare high turnout federal elections to low turnout specials especially when the democrat vote is depedant on low turnout black communities.

Youngkin+4, but yes, you could also look at it that way.



Lean of the seat/Virginia statewide result/implied lean of the seat relative to Virginia as a whole:
2016-POTUS: D+0/D+5/R+5
2017-Gov: D+8/D+9/R+1
2018-Sen: D+14/D+16/R+2
2019-StSen: R+1/D+13/R+14 (Kiggans is a beast)
2020-POTUS: D+10/D+10/D+0 (slightly left of the state here, by like 0.1 points)
2020-Sen: D+13/D+12/D+1
2021-Gov: R+4/R+3/R+1
2022-House: D+3/D+4/R+1
2023-StSen: D+1/??/??

With the exception of Kiggans' first victory, which is a massive outlier, since 2016 this seat has always been within 0-2 points of the Virginia statewide result. (To be fair to Democrats, more often slightly right than slightly left). I think "D+1" here implies VA as a whole is basically tied, which given that it's a Likely D state is not that good for Democrats.

(But this is one special result, specials are often weird, and we're getting two more of these today.)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 10, 2023, 10:07:48 PM
Democrats focused heavily on abortion for this campaign. It's an absolute killer for the GOP, my god.

Biden+10 --> Luria+3 --> D+1?
More accurately. Youngkin +10 -> D+1 because it's ridiculous to compare high turnout federal elections to low turnout specials especially when the democrat vote is depedant on low turnout black communities.

This seat was Youngkin +4.

Also, reminder that the seat may not be as blue as Biden+10 for 2020, cause of VAs inability at the time to match mail voters to precincts.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on January 10, 2023, 10:11:01 PM
Democrats focused heavily on abortion for this campaign. It's an absolute killer for the GOP, my god.

Biden+10 --> Luria+3 --> D+1?
More accurately. Youngkin +10 -> D+1 because it's ridiculous to compare high turnout federal elections to low turnout specials especially when the democrat vote is depedant on low turnout black communities.

This seat was Youngkin +4.

Also, reminder that the seat may not be as blue as Biden+10 for 2020, cause of VAs inability at the time to match mail voters to precincts.

That's a good point.  Also, CD-07 is almost surely bluer than it looks and CD-10 redder than it looks because of this same issue in Prince William.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on January 10, 2023, 10:24:47 PM
Glad to see we are overinterpreting low turnout special election margins already. The only thing that really matters is Dems flipped a seat and now have a much safer margin in the VA Sen. Too bad the Dem had to be a former Packer though :).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on January 10, 2023, 10:33:28 PM
Glad to see we are overinterpreting low turnout special election margins already. The only thing that really matters is Dems flipped a seat and now have a much safer margin in the VA Sen. Too bad the Dem had to be a former Packer though :).

Well, yes, this makes a big difference because it puts them out of lose control because one person gets sick (or accepts a Youngkin appointment) range.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Person Man on January 10, 2023, 11:31:40 PM
The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

These results do not suggest anything about the November 2024 national/federal elections, of course.

Of course not, if only because we don’t know if there’s going to be a major crisis/clusterfick or scandal


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MT Treasurer on January 10, 2023, 11:34:38 PM
The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

These results do not suggest anything about the November 2024 national/federal elections, of course.

I would also add that Youngkin himself only won by 2 in what was a perfect storm against Democrats (wrong issues, wrong candidate, wrong national environment, no blunders on the R side & R convention system). If anything, that election actually proved how resilient Democratic strength in Virginia is (it’s interesting how people have recently displayed a habit of downplaying it or overcompensating for having failed to predict Youngkin's win).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Vosem on January 11, 2023, 12:54:22 AM
Anyway, results have been finalized (100% counted; these aren't close so I doubt there'll be recounts) in the two House specials:

HD-24:
2023 special: R 63-37
2021 result: R 73-27
2020 POTUS: 67-31
2017 Gov: R 65-34
2016 POTUS: 64-31
Actually an enormous over-performance for Democrats!

HD-35:
2023 special: D 67-33
2021 result: D 69-31
2020 POTUS: D 71-27
2017 Gov: D 70-29
2016 POTUS: D 66-27
A pretty good result for Republicans!

Anyway, the swing from 2021 (note that for SD-7 this is gubernatorial and for the HDs this is House of Assembly, but those are really similar results at ~R+3 statewide) is D+5, D+20 (!), and R+4, for an average swing of D+7, implying something like D+4 statewide...which is actually the exact result from 2022. (In 2022, D+4 statewide in VA implied R+3 nationally. In 2020, it would've meant R+2).

If we do swing from 2020 POTUS instead, we have swings of R+9, D+10, and R+6, for an average swing of R+2. This is actually substantially better for Democrats even though the topline swings are rougher; it implies D+8 statewide in VA, which on 2020-POTUS numbers implies a national environment of D+1, and on 2022-congressional numbers implies D+2.

(Tldr: we had three legislative elections tonight, and they implied a solid R victory in HD-35, a close-and-unsatisfying R victory in SD-7, and then a crazy landslide D victory in HD-24. Pick which narrative you want!)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: crazy jimmie on January 11, 2023, 01:24:22 AM
HD 35 was my old district when I lived in Nova. I doubt many people even knew an election was going on.

Candi King won handily in Nov 2021 despite a close call in a January special election in 2021 for HD-02.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dan the Roman on January 11, 2023, 06:06:55 AM
The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

These results do not suggest anything about the November 2024 national/federal elections, of course.

I would also add that Youngkin himself only won by 2 in what was a perfect storm against Democrats (wrong issues, wrong candidate, wrong national environment, no blunders on the R side & R convention system). If anything, that election actually proved how resilient Democratic strength in Virginia is (it’s interesting how people have recently displayed a habit of downplaying it or overcompensating for having failed to predict Youngkin's win).

Why I was skeptical of "lean r" predictions for the state senate following the 2021 elections. If that was the GOP peak, then they had no margin for error. Literally none if there are only 20 Youngkin seats. 2021 was close enough it is quite plausible Youngkin would have lost post-Dobbs in 2022.

The GOP has bounced back from its late 2010s nadir, but it is still a very different state for them with a low ceiling.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on January 11, 2023, 08:07:36 AM
What's great for Rouse is that he has a perfect safe D seat to run in for the November election that has no incumbent.   SD-22 is Biden+20 and covers a good portion of the old SD-7.   He'll have that seat all decade easily.

I think he challenges Kiggans for the CD in 2024.

Not sure how wise that would be given he underperformed Luria's loss at the CD level meaningfully tonight.

Low turnout special elections for local offices always give weird swings. What matters most is that this is a flip and he now has a springboard to run for congress.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on January 11, 2023, 09:18:05 AM
What's great for Rouse is that he has a perfect safe D seat to run in for the November election that has no incumbent.   SD-22 is Biden+20 and covers a good portion of the old SD-7.   He'll have that seat all decade easily.

I think he challenges Kiggans for the CD in 2024.

Not sure how wise that would be given he underperformed Luria's loss at the CD level meaningfully tonight.

Not sure why you'd compare a higher turnout midterm to a lower turnout special (even though turnout was pretty damn good for a January special)

Luria likely would've lost in last nights electorate, given how even more R-skewing it was than 2022, so it's pretty impressive that Rouse still won. Just goes to show the GOP brand is still toxic in swingy areas, especially on abortion.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on January 11, 2023, 09:18:41 AM
Glad to see we are overinterpreting low turnout special election margins already. The only thing that really matters is Dems flipped a seat and now have a much safer margin in the VA Sen. Too bad the Dem had to be a former Packer though :).

I don't get this comment, considering most of the 2022 special elections post-Roe *were* indicative of the general themes that would take us into the midterms lol


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Pollster on January 11, 2023, 09:26:50 AM
Looks like last night's VA results continued the November 2022 patterns of Republicans overperforming in safe D areas but Democrats showing enormous resilience in more competitive areas. The Dem overperformance in the safe R seat is a bit new and we'll need to see if that becomes a pattern as well or is restricted only to special elections.

This dynamic is a mixed bag for Andy Beshear who will need rock solid margins and likely even overperformances in Kentucky's solid blue counties to win re-election (though overperforming in safe R areas, assuming that pattern holds, will help him enormously).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: crazy jimmie on January 11, 2023, 11:55:21 AM
I am unsure whether MI or VA will vote further left in 2024.

MI did have better overall results than VA the past couple of years, but VA did vote to the left of Michigan in the house vote.

2021 was really state specific issues along with the fact that NoVa was never going to vote like a major urban city county.

Can't wait for 2025 when the Democrats do just a bit better than 2021 in Nova but much better in Richmond and Hampton Roads and win the governorship.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: crazy jimmie on January 11, 2023, 12:20:32 PM
In little known special elections the online right can enjoy their temporary fantasy land of Nova being a Republican/Swing area.

()

()

The general election results makes complete sense for generic candidates in that district.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mr.Phips on January 11, 2023, 12:24:06 PM
In little known special elections the online right can enjoy their temporary fantasy land of Nova being a Republican/Swing area.

()

()

The general election results makes complete sense for generic candidates in that district.

This has always been a district where Dems have relied on lower propensity minority voters.  They actually lost this as an open seat in 2015 (after finally narrowly winning it in 2013).  Of course it flipped right back in 2017.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on January 11, 2023, 06:31:16 PM
I'm very pleased that we're still winning on the backs of Republicans unnecessarily wading into the abortion issue. Suck it, Dumbkin! Hopefully Democrats can take back the House of Delegates and keep the Senate this November and inconvenience his phony ass even more. 


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on January 15, 2023, 10:28:49 AM
A few more ballots were counted, extending Rouse's lead about an extra 0.5%

Rouse (D) 19,784 — 50.72%
Adams (R) 19,187 — 49.19%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on January 15, 2023, 12:46:56 PM
A few more ballots were counted, extending Rouse's lead about an extra 0.5%

Rouse (D) 19,784 — 50.72%
Adams (R) 19,187 — 49.19%

Interesting.  As of 2022, VA allows same day voter registration, but they treat the ballots as provisional until they can verify them a few days later.  As of 2020, VA also allows absentees postmarked by election day to count if they arrive by the Friday  after.  In this case, these ballots had a meaningful impact.  In 2020, the ED provisional vote would skew R and the latest-arriving mail-ins would be less D than average.  It looks like we have reverted to the pre-COVID pattern of these votes being very D. 


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on January 15, 2023, 06:15:50 PM
The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario is a reelected Biden, Speaker Jeffries, and McConnell controlling the Senate calendar once again (unless Sherrod Brown pulls off a miracle).


And there goes the scandal point.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on January 15, 2023, 06:32:32 PM
The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario is a reelected Biden, Speaker Jeffries, and McConnell controlling the Senate calendar once again (unless Sherrod Brown pulls off a miracle).


And there goes the scandal point.

Trump has literally the same scandal though so this feels different.  Either no big deal or it makes it more likely we get totally different nominees from both sides.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on January 15, 2023, 06:41:58 PM
The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario is a reelected Biden, Speaker Jeffries, and McConnell controlling the Senate calendar once again (unless Sherrod Brown pulls off a miracle).


And there goes the scandal point.

Trump has literally the same scandal though so this feels different.  Either no big deal or it makes it more likely we get totally different nominees from both sides.

I'm pretty pessimistic on how Documentgate will unfold, but I will say that if the scandal doesn't end up bad enough to allow Biden the circumstance of facing Trump in a rematch, it's neutralized by Trump's version of it still being objectively worse in stark contrast.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on January 16, 2023, 04:42:50 PM
The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario is a reelected Biden, Speaker Jeffries, and McConnell controlling the Senate calendar once again (unless Sherrod Brown pulls off a miracle).


And there goes the scandal point.

Trump has literally the same scandal though so this feels different.  Either no big deal or it makes it more likely we get totally different nominees from both sides.

I'm pretty pessimistic on how Documentgate will unfold, but I will say that if the scandal doesn't end up bad enough to allow Biden the circumstance of facing Trump in a rematch, it's neutralized by Trump's version of it still being objectively worse in stark contrast.

Besides knowing Trump he might well get into even worse nonsense in the coming 20 months.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: mpbond on January 16, 2023, 09:25:36 PM
The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario is a reelected Biden, Speaker Jeffries, and McConnell controlling the Senate calendar once again (unless Sherrod Brown pulls off a miracle).


And there goes the scandal point.

Trump has literally the same scandal though so this feels different.  Either no big deal or it makes it more likely we get totally different nominees from both sides.

I'm pretty pessimistic on how Documentgate will unfold, but I will say that if the scandal doesn't end up bad enough to allow Biden the circumstance of facing Trump in a rematch, it's neutralized by Trump's version of it still being objectively worse in stark contrast.

I think the fact that this is happening to both of them simultaneously shows that these documents not being where they are supposed to be is more common than we think and it wouldn't surprise me if more are found in other politicians homes/offices. It may not even be malicious either, it could be just laziness or incompetence. Either way i'm sure both of the parties will treat this fairly and responsibly as always!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on January 18, 2023, 08:42:11 AM
A few more ballots were counted, extending Rouse's lead about an extra 0.5%

Rouse (D) 19,784 — 50.72%
Adams (R) 19,187 — 49.19%

Looks like this is the final update:

Rouse (D) 19,923 — 50.84%
Adams (R) 19,227 — 49.07%

Rouse wins by 1.77%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on January 25, 2023, 08:47:32 AM
There is yet another vacancy in the Georgia House (the fifth so far) as Mike Glanton (D-Jonesboro) resigned after 14 years in office.  There will be a special election on March 21 to fill the HD-75 vacancy.  The district is Safe D; Glanton was reelected with 89% of the vote in November.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/democratic-state-rep-mike-glanton-resigns-from-georgia-house/45MQYJZGQBGEVFRADBLFIEVKEA/


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 31, 2023, 09:36:09 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on February 01, 2023, 11:31:02 AM
Dems did fine in the PA special last night. I think it was like 4% worse than Biden (R+35) but 5% better than the D in the actual senate election in 2020 (R+44)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on February 07, 2023, 12:12:10 PM
are Democrats favored in all three specials in Pennsylvania today?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Nyvin on February 07, 2023, 01:36:42 PM
are Democrats favored in all three specials in Pennsylvania today?

HD-32 is Biden+26

HD-34 is Biden+62

HD-35 is Biden+16

Should all be safe D really,  35 would only flip in a major, big time failure by the PA Dems.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on February 07, 2023, 08:17:38 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on February 08, 2023, 12:13:38 AM
So Democrats overperformed by around 40 points.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on February 08, 2023, 08:51:55 AM

What happened that they overpreformed so much? Did Republicans not show up?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on February 08, 2023, 09:09:08 AM

What happened that they overpreformed so much? Did Republicans not show up?

I mean these are all normally Safe Blue seats the GOP wouldn't bother with. Sure they said that they would try this time, given the tightness of the chamber, but really this just seems like the 'forgone conclusion landslide' type of outcome.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ferguson97 on February 08, 2023, 09:15:12 AM

What happened that they overpreformed so much? Did Republicans not show up?

I think at this point it's safe to say that Democrats just have an advantage in special elections due to recent changes in coalitions.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on February 08, 2023, 09:23:08 AM
PA Dems continue to be on beast mode. Huge overperformances last night - the fact that they all even outperformed *Shapiro* is pretty incredible

HD-32
2020 prez: D+26
2022 gov: D+43
2022 HD: D+72 (vs. Green candidate, no R on ballot)
2023 special: D+50

HD-34
2020 prez: D+62
2022 gov: D+73
2023 special: D+76

HD-35
2020 prez: D+16
2022 gov: D+37
2022 HD: D+32
2023 special: D+49


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on February 08, 2023, 12:45:02 PM
PA Dems continue to be on beast mode. Huge overperformances last night - the fact that they all even outperformed *Shapiro* is pretty incredible

HD-32
2020 prez: D+26
2022 gov: D+43
2022 HD: D+72 (vs. Green candidate, no R on ballot)
2023 special: D+50

HD-34
2020 prez: D+62
2022 gov: D+73
2023 special: D+76

HD-35
2020 prez: D+16
2022 gov: D+37
2022 HD: D+32
2023 special: D+49

These are margins that say Republicans didn't even make an effort here especially in HD-35 and also that Democrats remain active and are not asleep at the wheel.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on February 08, 2023, 07:55:36 PM
Allegheny county is just one of those areas in the country where the demographics are working hard against the Republicans. It just keeps getting uglier for them with every election.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on February 09, 2023, 09:57:47 AM
Allegheny county is just one of those areas in the country where the demographics are working hard against the Republicans. It just keeps getting uglier for them with every election.

I heard Democrats used messaging as the the three elections deciding control of the house and that may have helped with turnout. If you tell people their vote will matter they have a higher chance of turning out.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on February 09, 2023, 09:59:29 AM
Allegheny county is just one of those areas in the country where the demographics are working hard against the Republicans. It just keeps getting uglier for them with every election.

I heard Democrats used messaging as the the three elections deciding control of the house and that may have helped with turnout. If you tell people their vote will matter they have a higher chance of turning out.

Yeah, from what I can tell, Allegheny Dems put a ton of effort into these specials and didn't take them for granted. The results speak for themselves IMO.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on February 09, 2023, 10:24:21 AM
Allegheny county is just one of those areas in the country where the demographics are working hard against the Republicans. It just keeps getting uglier for them with every election.

I heard Democrats used messaging as the the three elections deciding control of the house and that may have helped with turnout. If you tell people their vote will matter they have a higher chance of turning out.

Yeah, from what I can tell, Allegheny Dems put a ton of effort into these specials and didn't take them for granted. The results speak for themselves IMO.

agreed. It doesn't explain the lack of turnout by Republicans though. Democrats are clearly still engaged post midterms.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on February 12, 2023, 09:37:03 PM


A very red district, and given past votes, not likely to receive much welcome from his "new" party. It appears a move out of desperation: expecting to easily lose the GOP primary based on the county line endorsement loses, he's gonna try a Hail Mary on the other side of the ballot.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on February 21, 2023, 07:21:43 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gass3268 on February 21, 2023, 08:15:27 PM
Democrat with a big over performance in a white Louisville based district. EDIT: Mitch McConnell's state house seat!



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on February 21, 2023, 09:32:12 PM


Not only did Trump endorse the crazy lady, but Democrats spent money to boost her.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 21, 2023, 10:19:43 PM
Wow, a beautiful night for the Democratic Party (and by extension, America). The voters have spoken and they want Secretary Mayor Pete to keep crashing trains!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on February 28, 2023, 10:47:32 PM
Three specials in Connecticut were held today.

The Dem won CT-100 by 37.7, when Biden won it by only 32.2


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on March 01, 2023, 11:17:06 AM
Three specials in Connecticut were held today.

The Dem won CT-100 by 37.7, when Biden won it by only 32.2

They won the other two as well. CT-6 was a Democrat and independent.

CT 148 they underperformed by a few points.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on March 01, 2023, 07:51:18 PM


Zabel won his last race by 30 points so the district is not in danger of flipping, but if he resigns it would result in the PA House being temporarily tied.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on March 05, 2023, 08:44:25 PM
(Now former) Maine State Representative Clinton Collamore (D-House District 45) was indicted on January 24 (https://www.bangordailynews.com/2023/02/16/politics/clinton-collamore-maine-lawmaker-signature-plea-fraud-charges/) for aggravated forgery and other charges stemming from his 2022 campaign (you can get public funding if you get enough people to give $5 contributions to the Maine Clean Election Fund "in honor of" your campaign (my own terminology there)), immediately called by State House Speaker of his own party to resign (and yes, some friendly media reporters may have asked the Speaker's office for a comment and put her call for Collamore to resign at the head of the story), and finally did so (https://www.bangordailynews.com/2023/02/16/politics/clinton-collamore-maine-lawmaker-signature-plea-fraud-charges/) on February 16 when he was arraigned.

Special elections State Representative in Maine can't happen until municipal officials in a municipality in the district send a communication to the Governor asking for one, and apparently such notice didn't reach the Governor (or at least that news didn't reach the Secretary of State's Office) until Friday (I had gotten impatient and emailed them on Thursday; I don't live in that district but am always interested in special elections in Maine).  No press release about a special election was released on Friday, but I imagine there will be one tomorrow.

As for when the election will be held, it may depend on when towns in that district have elections already scheduled.  With the various requirements (including people overseas being able to cast UOCAVA ballots), the earliest the election could probably be held is in June.  The second Tuesday in June, which would be June 13 this year. is a common election day in Maine (that's when the congressional (both chambers), state and county office primaries are held in even years).  But I wouldn't completely rule out the election being scheduled for November 7, which will be a statewide election with multiple referendum questions.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on March 08, 2023, 01:42:23 PM
State house special election incoming! This is a Biden +30 seat though, so no worries of it flipping



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 08, 2023, 04:35:57 PM
https://apnews.com/article/matt-fariss-virginia-lawmaker-charged-hit-run-d465cac031f39294126feb978e9a996c (https://apnews.com/article/matt-fariss-virginia-lawmaker-charged-hit-run-d465cac031f39294126feb978e9a996c)

 A Virginia state lawmaker charged in what authorities are calling a hit-and-run swerved his SUV toward a woman after they argued, striking her and leaving her with minor injuries, according to police and allegations outlined in court documents.

Del. Matt Fariss, a 54-year-old Republican who has represented part of central Virginia in the House of Delegates for over a decade, faces two felony charges — malicious wounding and being involved in a hit-and-run — plus misdemeanor reckless driving. Fariss has denied the allegations.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: NewYorkExpress on March 17, 2023, 10:50:53 AM
Possible Special Election in Connecticut as State Representative Robin Comey (HD-102) was arrested for DUI and has already been stripped of all committee assignments. (https://www.courant.com/2023/03/16/state-rep-robin-comey-arrested-for-drunken-driving-near-state-capitol/)

Quote
State Rep. Robin Comey was removed from all committee assignments Friday after being arrested on drunken driving charges following a car crash near the state Capitol in Hartford, officials said.

Comey had been driving her Honda with legislative plates with the number “102” that shows that she represents her hometown of Branford. The car flipped over and landed upside down on its roof Thursday night on Capitol Avenue between Lawrence and Babcock streets. She was handcuffed at the scene by Hartford police following a field sobriety test.

House Speaker Matt Ritter of Hartford said Friday that Comey, an assistant majority whip, had been removed from all leadership assignments until further notice.

“This was an extremely dangerous situation, and somebody could have been seriously injured, including Rep. Comey,” Ritter said. “My immediate reaction is to think about Rep. Comey’s next steps. I hope she focuses on her health and wellbeing, and I know that her friends and colleagues will support her in any way we can.”



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 21, 2023, 07:36:03 AM
There's a special election in Georgia HD-75 today.  The district is Safe D; the previous occupant, Mike Glanton, won with 89% in 2022 (with slightly different boundaries).  Today's contest features two Democrats, Herman Andrews and Eric Bell II, and one Republican, Della Ashley.  If nobody gets a majority, a runoff will be held on April 18.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on March 22, 2023, 02:04:48 AM
There's a special election in Georgia HD-75 today.  The district is Safe D; the previous occupant, Mike Glanton, won with 89% in 2022 (with slightly different boundaries).  Today's contest features two Democrats, Herman Andrews and Eric Bell II, and one Republican, Della Ashley.  If nobody gets a majority, a runoff will be held on April 18.

Update on this - Eric Bell cleared the 50% threshold by over ten points, and the two Ds combined for 89%.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on March 23, 2023, 11:00:51 PM
(Now former) Maine State Representative Clinton Collamore (D-House District 45) was indicted on January 24 (https://www.bangordailynews.com/2023/02/16/politics/clinton-collamore-maine-lawmaker-signature-plea-fraud-charges/) for aggravated forgery and other charges stemming from his 2022 campaign (you can get public funding if you get enough people to give $5 contributions to the Maine Clean Election Fund "in honor of" your campaign (my own terminology there)), immediately called by State House Speaker of his own party to resign (and yes, some friendly media reporters may have asked the Speaker's office for a comment and put her call for Collamore to resign at the head of the story), and finally did so (https://www.bangordailynews.com/2023/02/16/politics/clinton-collamore-maine-lawmaker-signature-plea-fraud-charges/) on February 16 when he was arraigned.

Special elections State Representative in Maine can't happen until municipal officials in a municipality in the district send a communication to the Governor asking for one, and apparently such notice didn't reach the Governor (or at least that news didn't reach the Secretary of State's Office) until Friday (I had gotten impatient and emailed them on Thursday; I don't live in that district but am always interested in special elections in Maine).  No press release about a special election was released on Friday, but I imagine there will be one tomorrow.

As for when the election will be held, it may depend on when towns in that district have elections already scheduled.  With the various requirements (including people overseas being able to cast UOCAVA ballots), the earliest the election could probably be held is in June.  The second Tuesday in June, which would be June 13 this year. is a common election day in Maine (that's when the congressional (both chambers), state and county office primaries are held in even years).  But I wouldn't completely rule out the election being scheduled for November 7, which will be a statewide election with multiple referendum questions.
2 ex-lawmakers may face off in June for swing Maine House district along coast (https://www.bangordailynews.com/2023/03/15/politics/maine-coastal-house-district-special-election/)

The election is on June 13.  The caucus paperwork (for candidates of qualified parties) / filing (for Unenrolled ("Independent") candidates) deadline is March 31.  Presumably the write-in deadline is a week later, since it usually is for special elections.  But I've never seen a write-in declare for a special Legislative election.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gracile on March 28, 2023, 09:38:27 PM
Big overperformance in VA SD-09 (Rep. McClellan's vacant district) tonight:



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on March 28, 2023, 10:32:04 PM
Big overperformance in VA SD-09 (Rep. McClellan's vacant district) tonight:



I'm becoming pretty confidant about Protasiewicz's chances.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Spectator on March 29, 2023, 07:09:04 AM
SD-08 should be a flip based on WI Dems historically overperforming in special elections.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: windjammer on March 31, 2023, 03:58:50 PM
SD-08 should be a flip based on WI Dems historically overperforming in special elections.
It's historically republican so more republican downballot though


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: walleye26 on April 01, 2023, 06:18:22 AM
SD-08 should be a flip based on WI Dems historically overperforming in special elections.
It's historically republican so more republican downballot though

Yeah, the seat is in all 3 WOW counties (and a little bit of northern MKE county), so it’ll be hard for Dems to win (it was Trump +5) but with recent trends towards the Democrats, this is a pickup possibility for them. I still think they fall about 2-3 points short though.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on April 03, 2023, 09:28:06 AM
VA SD9 looks like it's done counting, the GOP has fallen below 10% there now.

Bagby (D) 89.84%
Imholt (R) 9.92%
Write-In 0.25%

Final result is pretty much D+80


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Yoda on April 04, 2023, 06:39:05 AM
SD-08 should be a flip based on WI Dems historically overperforming in special elections.


Thank God. The prospect of WI republicans having the numbers to impeach whoever they feel like for completely political reasons is gruesome. Can't wait for Janet to rule correctly on gerrymandering and make their undeserved majorities go bye bye.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: NewYorkExpress on April 26, 2023, 04:27:52 PM
Special election in New Hampshire upcoming, with Benjamin Bartlett's resignation.

The district, Rockingham 1, was one the closest in New Hampshire and in the entire country.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: NewYorkExpress on May 06, 2023, 04:34:08 PM
It looks like we will have an imminent special election in Texas HD-2, after a subcommittee recommended expelling State Rep. Bryan Slaton. (https://www.kxan.com/news/texas-politics/texas-house-committee-recommends-expelling-rep-bryan-slaton/)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MaxQue on May 13, 2023, 04:58:18 PM
It looks like we will have an imminent special election in Texas HD-2, after a subcommittee recommended expelling State Rep. Bryan Slaton. (https://www.kxan.com/news/texas-politics/texas-house-committee-recommends-expelling-rep-bryan-slaton/)

Resigned on the 8th, expelled on the 10th (without being expelled, he would have been paid until the special election under Texas law).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Pollster on May 14, 2023, 09:19:52 AM
DeSantis has tapped Republican State Rep. Fred Hawkins to be the next President of South Florida State College, setting up a special election in the competitive 35th State House District (Biden +5) that contains a small portion of Orlando, its western Orange County suburbs, and most of unincorporated Osceola County.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: lfromnj on May 14, 2023, 12:09:59 PM
DeSantis has tapped Republican State Rep. Fred Hawkins to be the next President of South Florida State College, setting up a special election in the competitive 35th State House District (Biden +5) that contains a small portion of Orlando, its western Orange County suburbs, and most of unincorporated Osceola County.



I think you mean eastern.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Pollster on May 14, 2023, 03:41:00 PM
DeSantis has tapped Republican State Rep. Fred Hawkins to be the next President of South Florida State College, setting up a special election in the competitive 35th State House District (Biden +5) that contains a small portion of Orlando, its western Orange County suburbs, and most of unincorporated Osceola County.



I think you mean eastern.

Yes, thanks.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: NewYorkExpress on May 14, 2023, 08:40:13 PM
There will be a special election in Kentucky HD-93 after the incumbent, Lamin Swann died. (https://www.lex18.com/news/state-representative-from-lexington-dies-at-age-45)

This is a suburban Lexington District. Swann won 53.8-46.2 in 2022.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on May 15, 2023, 04:01:32 PM
Interested to see the margin in the Delco state house special election tomorrow. It was Biden 62-37 and Fetterman 64% I think but Dems have not taken it lightly - Shapiro cut a video, Biden released an endorsement, and Dems have spent $1M+ on their candidate (Rs have not spent anywhere close to that). The last two Dems in this seat were mired by scandal so I would assume it's more of a better be safe than sorry situation. But at the same time, PA Dems have also just been on their game - they put lots of money and resources into the Allegheny specials in February when they were all safe D seats too


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on May 15, 2023, 09:34:45 PM
Interested to see the margin in the Delco state house special election tomorrow. It was Biden 62-37 and Fetterman 64% I think but Dems have not taken it lightly - Shapiro cut a video, Biden released an endorsement, and Dems have spent $1M+ on their candidate (Rs have not spent anywhere close to that). The last two Dems in this seat were mired by scandal so I would assume it's more of a better be safe than sorry situation. But at the same time, PA Dems have also just been on their game - they put lots of money and resources into the Allegheny specials in February when they were all safe D seats too

I expect the margin might be a little lower due to higher Republican turnout but Democrats are framing this very well and it would be a massive upset if they lost.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on May 15, 2023, 10:10:27 PM
If Biden and Fetterman both won this seat by 25+ points, there's absolutely no excuse for a Democratic defeat, although also extremely unlikely. But if Republicans can limit it to just a 15 point loss...well also not a good look but in a low turnout election tough to gauge much from. I guess we'll see.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on May 16, 2023, 08:03:05 PM
Yeah, this shouldn't even be close



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom on May 16, 2023, 09:23:32 PM
Yeah, this shouldn't even be close



Boyd currently at +53.8


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on May 16, 2023, 09:45:41 PM


Always run like you are a couple points behind. Good for PA Dems taking nothing for granted.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on May 16, 2023, 10:04:29 PM
Not really the place to post this but not really worth another thread. Three props for goverment money to build a new arena for the Arizona Coyotes (NHL) go down.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 17, 2023, 01:36:43 AM
Republicans staying classy as always.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on May 18, 2023, 08:40:54 AM
Lost in some of the kerfuffle was that Dems really did well in PA's HD108 on Tuesday

HD108: R+20 (Trump +32)
HD163: D+21 (Biden +26)

A 12% overperformance from Trumps margin in a red district. Ds did 5% worse than Biden in 163, but that's not too surprising.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Person Man on May 18, 2023, 09:36:24 AM
Republicans staying classy as always.



In the words of King Arthur in The Holy Grail “you make me sad”.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on May 22, 2023, 06:32:10 PM


Always run like you are a couple points behind. Good for PA Dems taking nothing for granted.

Example #1,983,203 of the PA Dems being an S-tier state party


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Epaminondas on June 10, 2023, 09:25:45 AM
Special in Maine HD45 this Tuesday: https://www.wabi.tv/2023/03/16/house-district-45-special-election-announced/

Unlike in most states, the Dems seems have to have a stronger hold on the State Senate than the House, which came close to flipping back in 2020.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ferguson97 on June 13, 2023, 03:39:21 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Epaminondas on June 14, 2023, 08:35:21 AM
Maine HD45 flips to the GOP 52-48

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1668786891540373504

Maine being unpredictable as usual, though this is a net drop from Trump's 2020 result.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: walleye26 on July 16, 2023, 08:45:28 AM
This Tuesday (7/18) will feature a special election in WI assembly district 24 (Grafton, portions of Mequon, the village of Germantown, and parts of Menominee Falls). Trump won this district by 16 in 2020, but Evers narrowed that a few points and Janet only lost it by low double digits.

While the Republican candidate is heavily favored, this is a district trending left. The margin will be interesting to see.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on July 17, 2023, 07:24:22 PM
Bath Rep. Sean Paulhus resigns to take register of probate appointment (https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pressherald.com%2F2023%2F07%2F17%2Fbath-rep-sean-paulhus-resigns-to-take-register-of-probate-appointment%2F%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR1T3axUVDhsRtvmjsDoyJCWH7xPm6rsNTn0cNvLGb5HXsjaw1BvFTg3DNg&h=AT0Vw0w1x0V6xTQH5x7-Mszg_7WoOo4b9KgTWybgCdJXSHfEKqsl_lN5LBJPribtdmpVXS_DwGQFHYCKhhWKYdMFeL2-Xdqtlif6Y9Es1s5dMZxEnvs-3z_jvs69oGgMdwzdPHIIkorU)

The special election hasn't been called yet (the Maine Constitution requires an "immediate election" to fill State Senate vacancies but merely says that State House vacancies "may be filled by a new election", and Maine statute requires municipal officers (Board of Selectmen, City Council, etc.) in an affected municipality (so, the Bath City Council in this case, since the district is simply the City of Bath) to notify the Governor of the need to fill the vacancy), but will almost certainly be held on November 7.

Pretty safe D seat nowadays.  The guy who resigned himself won a special election in 2019, 975 votes (66.5%) to 491 (33.5%).  (Maine State Representatives only represent 9,022 people on average based on 2020 census figures, and when you couple that with an irregular election (I'm not sure if there was anything on the Bath municipal ballot) you can get low figures like these.)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Devils30 on July 18, 2023, 08:42:17 PM
This Tuesday (7/18) will feature a special election in WI assembly district 24 (Grafton, portions of Mequon, the village of Germantown, and parts of Menominee Falls). Trump won this district by 16 in 2020, but Evers narrowed that a few points and Janet only lost it by low double digits.

While the Republican candidate is heavily favored, this is a district trending left. The margin will be interesting to see.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/election-results-wisconsin-state-assembly-24-special-election/

Trump +16, looks like another major GOP underperformance in the suburbs. Dems continue to make gains in the WOW.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: walleye26 on July 18, 2023, 09:41:31 PM
This Tuesday (7/18) will feature a special election in WI assembly district 24 (Grafton, portions of Mequon, the village of Germantown, and parts of Menominee Falls). Trump won this district by 16 in 2020, but Evers narrowed that a few points and Janet only lost it by low double digits.

While the Republican candidate is heavily favored, this is a district trending left. The margin will be interesting to see.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/election-results-wisconsin-state-assembly-24-special-election/

Trump +16, looks like another major GOP underperformance in the suburbs. Dems continue to make gains in the WOW.

It also looks like the Democratic candidate outright won the Menominee Falls portion of the district. I was expecting him to do better in the Ozaukee County portion, but he only lost it by 5 to the GOP candidate. The fact that he got nearly 42% in Germantown is nuts for a Dem. I know it’s only one special election, but yeah, Trump won this by 16 and the GOP candidate winning by 7 is absolutely awful for the WISGOP.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: NewYorkExpress on July 18, 2023, 10:27:35 PM
This Tuesday (7/18) will feature a special election in WI assembly district 24 (Grafton, portions of Mequon, the village of Germantown, and parts of Menominee Falls). Trump won this district by 16 in 2020, but Evers narrowed that a few points and Janet only lost it by low double digits.

While the Republican candidate is heavily favored, this is a district trending left. The margin will be interesting to see.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/election-results-wisconsin-state-assembly-24-special-election/

Trump +16, looks like another major GOP underperformance in the suburbs. Dems continue to make gains in the WOW.

It also looks like the Democratic candidate outright won the Menominee Falls portion of the district. I was expecting him to do better in the Ozaukee County portion, but he only lost it by 5 to the GOP candidate. The fact that he got nearly 42% in Germantown is nuts for a Dem. I know it’s only one special election, but yeah, Trump won this by 16 and the GOP candidate winning by 7 is absolutely awful for the WISGOP.

This is a good sign for Tammy Baldwin. If Democrats are doing this well in specials a year out, it's hard to see how she isn't favored next fall.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on July 19, 2023, 08:20:33 AM
Another Dem overperformance in a special election... where have I seen this before


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on July 19, 2023, 09:03:34 AM
Another special election coming to PA! Safe D seat though.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Devils30 on July 19, 2023, 12:08:43 PM
Another Dem overperformance in a special election... where have I seen this before

The aggregate of GOP underperformances in suburbs/exurbs point to an additional round of Democratic gains coming in Waukesha/Ozaukee (WI) Cumberland (PA), Ottawa (MI), Forsyth (GA) and similar places in TX, NC along with counties like Hamilton (IN), Hunterdon (NJ), Delaware (OH).

How does the GOP offset this? They don't. In theory they can get a lot of working class Hispanics in NV, AZ but they will learn these states are not Florida quite fast.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on July 20, 2023, 02:27:48 PM
Another special election coming to PA! Safe D seat though.



I wonder if she is somehow related to our Phil.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on August 01, 2023, 08:13:10 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: NewYorkExpress on August 02, 2023, 09:00:32 PM


Safe D


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Badger on August 03, 2023, 08:57:07 AM
Another special election coming to PA! Safe D seat though.



I wonder if she is somehow related to our Phil.

I'd love to be a fly in the wall for that Thanksgiving dinner. :D


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on August 03, 2023, 10:22:05 AM


I don't think this guy can win a closely divided district like this.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on August 03, 2023, 11:00:56 AM
It's New Hampshire, a Qanon backing republican won a Biden Senate district.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 03, 2023, 09:23:05 PM
()

One would expect the expelled members to be returned with expanded margins of support, right?

Well what about a no-name Dem overperforming by 14 points in a uber-red truly rural east Tennessee seat? Well the previous incumbent did resign in scandal so there is that I guess.

()


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on August 04, 2023, 09:33:34 AM
Double digit overperformances from Biden in 2020: +13 and +14.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Brittain33 on August 04, 2023, 11:15:01 AM
Any explanation for the difference in turnout between Nashville and the other two? I can guess, but curious if anyone knows details.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: NewYorkExpress on August 13, 2023, 09:04:38 PM
There will be a special election in SC-SD 19, following the death of John Scott. (https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/south-carolina-state-sen-john-scott-longtime-democratic-102238177)

Quote
State Sen. John Scott, a longtime South Carolina lawmaker who served for more than three decades, died Sunday after a stint in the hospital, according to Democrats across the state. He was 69.

Scott had been at the Medical University of South Carolina in Charleston, since Friday, when he was hospitalized for an undisclosed medical issue, according to Senate officials.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mr. Matt on August 14, 2023, 10:51:06 AM
Not a resignation, but a special convention will be needed in NJ- Dick Codey (aka the Governor after McGreevey) is retiring after 50 years in the legislature, this after defeating another incumbent in the June primary.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2023/08/ex-gov-codey-will-not-seek-re-election-to-nj-senate-ending-50-year-tenure.html
https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/codey-will-retire-drops-bid-for-re-election-to-n-j-senate/


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Nyvin on August 15, 2023, 10:05:21 PM
The progressive is in first as of now for the top two primary in San Diego's district 4 election for county supervisor

https://www.livevoterturnout.com/ENR/sandiegocaenr/17/en/Index_17.html


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on August 18, 2023, 07:46:25 PM
Bath Rep. Sean Paulhus resigns to take register of probate appointment (https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pressherald.com%2F2023%2F07%2F17%2Fbath-rep-sean-paulhus-resigns-to-take-register-of-probate-appointment%2F%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR1T3axUVDhsRtvmjsDoyJCWH7xPm6rsNTn0cNvLGb5HXsjaw1BvFTg3DNg&h=AT0Vw0w1x0V6xTQH5x7-Mszg_7WoOo4b9KgTWybgCdJXSHfEKqsl_lN5LBJPribtdmpVXS_DwGQFHYCKhhWKYdMFeL2-Xdqtlif6Y9Es1s5dMZxEnvs-3z_jvs69oGgMdwzdPHIIkorU)

The special election hasn't been called yet (the Maine Constitution requires an "immediate election" to fill State Senate vacancies but merely says that State House vacancies "may be filled by a new election", and Maine statute requires municipal officers (Board of Selectmen, City Council, etc.) in an affected municipality (so, the Bath City Council in this case, since the district is simply the City of Bath) to notify the Governor of the need to fill the vacancy), but will almost certainly be held on November 7.

Pretty safe D seat nowadays.  The guy who resigned himself won a special election in 2019, 975 votes (66.5%) to 491 (33.5%).  (Maine State Representatives only represent 9,022 people on average based on 2020 census figures, and when you couple that with an irregular election (I'm not sure if there was anything on the Bath municipal ballot) you can get low figures like these.)

Special election set to fill House District 50 seat (https://www.maine.gov/sos/news/2023/SpecialElectionSetHouseDistrict50.html)

Committee nominating paperwork (for party candidates) / nominating petitions with at least 50 valid signatures (for non-party candidates) due: 5:00 p.m. on Friday, September 1, 2023

Write-in candidate declaration deadline: 5:00 p.m. on Wednesday, September 6, 2023 (I've never seen a write-in candidate declare for a special election in the period when there have been such deadlines; until 2007 the deadline for a write-in candidate to declare was either non-existent (pre-1999) or was 3 days after the election; when you're only dealing with 1/151 of the state (population-wise as of the last census and so, very roughly, voter-wise), your chances of getting an eccentric individual to declare as a write-in diminish).

Election date: Tuesday, November 7, 2023


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on August 22, 2023, 08:00:22 PM


NH special election,  for a very blue seat. The special which could tie/flip the chamber, depending on how one tabulates the Independents, is next month.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 22, 2023, 08:26:30 PM


NH special election,  for a very blue seat. The special which could tie/flip the chamber, depending on how on tabulates the Independents, is next month.

But I read that Democrats are PANICKED in Virginia and that Republicans will easily win the trifecta.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: NewYorkExpress on August 22, 2023, 08:36:31 PM

NH special election,  for a very blue seat. The special which could tie/flip the chamber, depending on how on tabulates the Independents, is next month.

But I read that Democrats are PANICKED in Virginia and that Republicans will easily win the trifecta.

I don't think either party gets a trifecta in Virginia. I think both Houses filp, and Democrats pick up the Governor's Mansion in 2025.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: dspNY on August 22, 2023, 09:21:53 PM
Democrats now outperforming 2020 by 7.7% and 2016 by 12.4% when all special elections are averaged. I really think the pollsters are missing a LOT of Dem-leaning voters

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ajyphWQru9TgDDiBe8kvEmApBEXND2wl9MVaxi1dndk/edit#gid=0


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on August 22, 2023, 10:02:40 PM


NH special election,  for a very blue seat. The special which could tie/flip the chamber, depending on how one tabulates the Independents, is next month.
That ME HD45 special election with the 2.5% D "overperformance" from the 2020 Presidential election was actually an R flip from 2022.  Of course, the D who resigned did so pretty much in disgrace (https://www.bangordailynews.com/2023/02/16/politics/clinton-collamore-maine-lawmaker-signature-plea-fraud-charges/), after falsifications in getting public "Clean Election" funding (without which the Republican nominee would likely have won this seat in 2022) were exposed (although ultimately the falsifications weren't as bad as had been thought and the felony charges were dropped; and yes, I know how plea deals work and it doesn't necessarily mean the guy didn't do the worse stuff but in this case the judge noted how the case was different from other violations (https://lcnme.com/currentnews/collamore-pleads-guilty-to-misdemeanors-felonies-dismissed/) of the Maine Clean Election Act that had resulted in heavier sentences).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on August 26, 2023, 10:54:29 PM
Democrats now outperforming 2020 by 7.7% and 2016 by 12.4% when all special elections are averaged. I really think the pollsters are missing a LOT of Dem-leaning voters

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ajyphWQru9TgDDiBe8kvEmApBEXND2wl9MVaxi1dndk/edit#gid=0

Special elections shouldn't be extrapolated too much for upcoming regular elections, BUT they have been a pretty consistent indicator of the national environment. The 2022 midterms demonstrated this to great effect.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on August 26, 2023, 10:56:55 PM
Democrats now outperforming 2020 by 7.7% and 2016 by 12.4% when all special elections are averaged. I really think the pollsters are missing a LOT of Dem-leaning voters

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ajyphWQru9TgDDiBe8kvEmApBEXND2wl9MVaxi1dndk/edit#gid=0

Special elections shouldn't be extrapolated too much for upcoming regular elections, BUT they have been a pretty consistent indicator of the national environment. The 2022 midterms demonstrated this to great effect.
House Democrats underperformed Biden by 7.3% in the 2022 midterms.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on August 27, 2023, 01:37:57 AM
Democrats now outperforming 2020 by 7.7% and 2016 by 12.4% when all special elections are averaged. I really think the pollsters are missing a LOT of Dem-leaning voters

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ajyphWQru9TgDDiBe8kvEmApBEXND2wl9MVaxi1dndk/edit#gid=0

Special elections shouldn't be extrapolated too much for upcoming regular elections, BUT they have been a pretty consistent indicator of the national environment. The 2022 midterms demonstrated this to great effect.
House Democrats underperformed Biden by 7.3% in the 2022 midterms.

And yet Republicans only net nine seats in a year that was less Republican than it should have been. That's the point I'm making from the previous post. The special elections from the summer largely weren't Democratic wins but suggested that in the year's environment, something was happening not reflective of a GOP wave.

I would also say that special elections suggested the same thing in 2020, particularly the CA-27 special, to what ended up as Republicans' benefit


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on August 29, 2023, 10:45:59 PM


Not a legislative special but an interesting local special. 2020 election denial don't play even in a red county. Warren County IA.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on August 30, 2023, 07:25:57 AM

Not a legislative special but an interesting local special. 2020 election denial don't play even in a red county. Warren County IA.

Came here to post that but you beat me to it.  The linked article is worth a read.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on August 30, 2023, 08:15:28 AM
Also seems likely that if Virginia dems wouldve actually fielded a candidate in their special last night, it would've been a pretty big overperformance too.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on August 30, 2023, 08:30:17 AM
Also seems likely that if Virginia dems wouldve actually fielded a candidate in their special last night, it would've been a pretty big overperformance too.



why didn't they field a candidate here?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 30, 2023, 08:36:06 AM

why didn't they field a candidate here?

Nobody wanted to play the role of sacrificial lamb?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on August 30, 2023, 09:27:19 AM

why didn't they field a candidate here?

Nobody wanted to play the role of sacrificial lamb?

no general or special election election should be unopposed. Get a random person to run in a district as red as this. have it be a high school senior for all I care.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on August 30, 2023, 09:40:42 AM
Indiana State Senator Chip Perfect (R-Lawrenceburg) is resigning effective September 26, but in Indiana such vacancies are filled by the party committee rather than by special election.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: NewYorkExpress on August 31, 2023, 05:25:22 AM
There could be a special election upcoming in AL HD-10, following David Cole's indictment for voter fraud.

Cole only won here 51.6-45 last year, so this could be a possible Democratic gain, either in a special election or in 2024 when the seat is normally up.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mr.Phips on August 31, 2023, 07:51:37 AM
There could be a special election upcoming in AL HD-10, following David Cole's indictment for voter fraud.

Cole only won here 51.6-45 last year, so this could be a possible Democratic gain, either in a special election or in 2024 when the seat is normally up.

Also only went 50%-48% for Trump in 2020.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on September 10, 2023, 05:33:48 PM
Bath Rep. Sean Paulhus resigns to take register of probate appointment (https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pressherald.com%2F2023%2F07%2F17%2Fbath-rep-sean-paulhus-resigns-to-take-register-of-probate-appointment%2F%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR1T3axUVDhsRtvmjsDoyJCWH7xPm6rsNTn0cNvLGb5HXsjaw1BvFTg3DNg&h=AT0Vw0w1x0V6xTQH5x7-Mszg_7WoOo4b9KgTWybgCdJXSHfEKqsl_lN5LBJPribtdmpVXS_DwGQFHYCKhhWKYdMFeL2-Xdqtlif6Y9Es1s5dMZxEnvs-3z_jvs69oGgMdwzdPHIIkorU)

The special election hasn't been called yet (the Maine Constitution requires an "immediate election" to fill State Senate vacancies but merely says that State House vacancies "may be filled by a new election", and Maine statute requires municipal officers (Board of Selectmen, City Council, etc.) in an affected municipality (so, the Bath City Council in this case, since the district is simply the City of Bath) to notify the Governor of the need to fill the vacancy), but will almost certainly be held on November 7.

Pretty safe D seat nowadays.  The guy who resigned himself won a special election in 2019, 975 votes (66.5%) to 491 (33.5%).  (Maine State Representatives only represent 9,022 people on average based on 2020 census figures, and when you couple that with an irregular election (I'm not sure if there was anything on the Bath municipal ballot) you can get low figures like these.)

Special election set to fill House District 50 seat (https://www.maine.gov/sos/news/2023/SpecialElectionSetHouseDistrict50.html)

Committee nominating paperwork (for party candidates) / nominating petitions with at least 50 valid signatures (for non-party candidates) due: 5:00 p.m. on Friday, September 1, 2023

Write-in candidate declaration deadline: 5:00 p.m. on Wednesday, September 6, 2023 (I've never seen a write-in candidate declare for a special election in the period when there have been such deadlines; until 2007 the deadline for a write-in candidate to declare was either non-existent (pre-1999) or was 3 days after the election; when you're only dealing with 1/151 of the state (population-wise as of the last census and so, very roughly, voter-wise), your chances of getting an eccentric individual to declare as a write-in diminish).

Election date: Tuesday, November 7, 2023

Democrat running unopposed in Bath special election for Maine House seat (https://www.pressherald.com/2023/09/05/democrat-running-unopposed-in-bath-special-election-for-maine-house-seat/)

The deadline for write-in candidates to declare for the seat (so votes cast for them will be counted in the official results and not treated as blanks) was last Wednesday.  I don't know if anyone declared by the deadline.  It usually doesn't happen in State House special elections in Maine (only ~1/151 of the  potential vanity candidates in the state would live in the district), but in a situation where there's only one candidate on the ballot, it might be more likely.  Still, being the only candidate on the ballot would be a huge advantage, and it's a pretty safe Democratic seat nowadays anyway (which is perhaps why the Republicans didn't bother to field a candidate; maybe they feel this way they can keep some "momentum" from their pickup win in the Maine House District 45 special election in June).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 12, 2023, 04:31:24 PM


This is tonight.  Could easily provide potential fuel for the NY doomers or the NY realists depending on the outcome.  The district itself is kinda a gerrymandered fusion of White Republican, orthodox jew, white liberal,  Chinese, and Hispanic neighborhoods. Also reminder NY is better than in 2020 and modernized their counting laws before 2022, so we will know the winner tonight in all but the tightest results.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on September 12, 2023, 08:33:24 PM


I'm not going to read anything into a special with less than 5K total votes but at least the doomers will be quite for another week.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on September 12, 2023, 08:34:52 PM


I'm not going to read anything into a special with less than 5K total votes but at least the doomers will be quite for another week.

I'll take it.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 12, 2023, 08:50:10 PM
Matching Biden, which is what'll probably happen when the 1% of remaining late mail show up, is more than what Dems would want in a political climate that on paper should favor the GOP. In practice though, everything so far has been Dem improvements, which has raised the standards.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Naperville Politics Guy on September 12, 2023, 09:55:51 PM
Man, we really about to will single digits NY06 into existence


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ProgressiveModerate on September 12, 2023, 10:30:39 PM
It appears what happened in AD-27 is the Dem did massively better than Biden/Hochul with the Orthodox Jews, but did really really bad in the whiter Whitestone/College Point suburbs. Def a significant regional/neighborhood divide going on under the hood here.

In some way, the precincts result spell bad news for NY-Dems because of how bad they did in suburban Whitestone and College Point (literally 30+ points worse than Biden). The only reason the topline margin was good was because this Dem had unique appeal and outright won the Orthodox communities around Queens College whereas the Republican gains elsewhere seem more engrained.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Vosem on September 12, 2023, 11:19:06 PM


Horrific performance with the non-Orthodox vote, but still a comfortable Democratic victory on the whole on the strength of uniform Orthodox voting. Probably net bad news for NYC Dems, but I don't think it really means anything outside of NYC.

EDIT: Underrated Hochul Administration accomplishment -- apparently New York actually counts votes quickly now?!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: kwabbit on September 12, 2023, 11:36:59 PM
This probably would’ve gone R if not for the Orthodox flipping. Did the GOP still hope to flip it despite Berger securing the Orthodox vote? There were huge swings in the North and that wasn’t enough to make it close.

Is there any chance the Orthodox will endorse Biden over Trump? I keep on thinking that the GOP has finally broken the loyalty of the Orthodox to Democrats but down ballot it still seems to go Dem most of the time.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ProgressiveModerate on September 12, 2023, 11:42:53 PM


Horrific performance with the non-Orthodox vote, but still a comfortable Democratic victory on the whole on the strength of uniform Orthodox voting. Probably net bad news for NYC Dems, but I don't think it really means anything outside of NYC.

EDIT: Underrated Hochul Administration accomplishment -- apparently New York actually counts votes quickly now?!

Ye in 2022 the votes were counted p fast as well. NY Dems passed an elections bill which actually fixed the slow vote counting.

Also ye, most of these extreme hard right shifts are due to local political reasons, but I could see them slowly bleed over to the federal level. Unlikely Biden does as bad as Hochul in many of these NYC communities, but could def lose ground from 2020.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: warandwar on September 12, 2023, 11:58:03 PM


Horrific performance with the non-Orthodox vote, but still a comfortable Democratic victory on the whole on the strength of uniform Orthodox voting. Probably net bad news for NYC Dems, but I don't think it really means anything outside of NYC.

EDIT: Underrated Hochul Administration accomplishment -- apparently New York actually counts votes quickly now?!
There was not "uniform" orthodox voting here - that's pretty clear from the map. Communal support was split although the Democrat got the majority. This area of Queens is more modox than hasidish, as well.  Pomonok (also in the south) isn't orthodox, it is basically one big public housing project as well as a bunch of apartments built for union electricians and their families (a coworker lives there). Whitestone and thereabouts have been trending hard right for years now - that's the area represented by Paladino in the City Council. All told, I don't think it really says anything new, other than the "migrant!" line isn't any more effective than the "crime!" line. 


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on September 13, 2023, 08:30:42 AM
Seems like Berger will basically match Biden with final mail-ins, so I'd call this a win. Incredibly low turnout, but Dems will obviously like to see that this was nowhere near Hochul or even Schumer levels.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ajc0918 on September 13, 2023, 08:38:17 AM
Turnout in this election was like 4% or something. Don't extrapolate.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on September 13, 2023, 02:35:28 PM
We finally got a special election in a diverse urbanized district with a lot of people who are neither white nor black.  This result in NYC seems broadly consistent with R's outright winning the Hispanic and Asian vote in 2024? 


The question I have here is by how much would the R have won by if the Orthodox Jewish community had voted as R as they did in 2020?  Or as R as they did in 2022?  And how would that compare with the actual Biden/Trump or Hochul/Zeldin results?  That should probably be the benchmark unless we for some reason anticipate the leaders of this community would endorse Biden or congressional Dems in 2024.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: crazy jimmie on September 13, 2023, 02:44:13 PM
The evidence is piling up that Illinois and Colorado will vote to the left of New York in 2024. With the caveat about special election quirkiness.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on September 13, 2023, 02:48:26 PM
We finally got a special election in a diverse urbanized district with a lot of people who are neither white nor black.  This result in NYC seems broadly consistent with R's outright winning the Hispanic and Asian vote in 2024? 
Not with single digits turnout, and also mostly driven by NYC issues and patterns that don't matter outside of NYC.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on September 13, 2023, 05:55:01 PM
Seems like Berger will basically match Biden with final mail-ins, so I'd call this a win. Incredibly low turnout, but Dems will obviously like to see that this was nowhere near Hochul or even Schumer levels.

That's all I really wanted to see out of this special election. I don't know what it truly says about New York swinging and trending right or not, but the 2022 results probably won't be the norm going forward, even if there is still a rightward swing.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on September 13, 2023, 06:03:50 PM
Seems like Berger will basically match Biden with final mail-ins, so I'd call this a win. Incredibly low turnout, but Dems will obviously like to see that this was nowhere near Hochul or even Schumer levels.

That's all I really wanted to see out of this special election. I don't know what it truly says about New York swinging and trending right or not, but the 2022 results probably won't be the norm going forward, even if there is still a rightward swing.

I think that was an outlier due to Hochul's dreadful campaign.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on September 13, 2023, 06:41:00 PM
We finally got a special election in a diverse urbanized district with a lot of people who are neither white nor black.  This result in NYC seems broadly consistent with R's outright winning the Hispanic and Asian vote in 2024? 
Not with single digits turnout, and also mostly driven by NYC issues and patterns that don't matter outside of NYC.
1. The Asians/Hispanics that voted in 2024 and not in this election are most likely very blue but I’m growing increasingly convinced the “only vote in presidential years” ones are probably Lean R


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: warandwar on September 14, 2023, 09:56:23 AM
We finally got a special election in a diverse urbanized district with a lot of people who are neither white nor black.  This result in NYC seems broadly consistent with R's outright winning the Hispanic and Asian vote in 2024? 


The question I have here is by how much would the R have won by if the Orthodox Jewish community had voted as R as they did in 2020?  Or as R as they did in 2022?  And how would that compare with the actual Biden/Trump or Hochul/Zeldin results?  That should probably be the benchmark unless we for some reason anticipate the leaders of this community would endorse Biden or congressional Dems in 2024.

The most non white section of this district (Pomonk) voted strongly blue. Whitestone is still a cop (i mean italian) neighborhood, the asian neighborhoods are further east in Bayside.
This jewish community is like the base of the Weprins. Very different from williamsburg or crown heights.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on September 14, 2023, 01:18:07 PM
PA special election coming this Tuesday.

From 2022:
Requests were DEM 78.1 / REP 12.6 / IND 8.8
Returns were DEM 78.1 / REP 12.3 / IND 9.3

Final result in 2022 was D 63.6% - R 36.4%



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on September 14, 2023, 02:12:44 PM
PA special election coming this Tuesday.

From 2022:
Requests were DEM 78.1 / REP 12.6 / IND 8.8
Returns were DEM 78.1 / REP 12.3 / IND 9.3

Final result in 2022 was D 63.6% - R 36.4%



Very impressive for a special election. With a one seat majority you can't take any chances. In the three specials early this year Democrats framed them as deciding control of the house and it worked. Turnout was decent.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Atlas Force on September 14, 2023, 03:36:34 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on September 14, 2023, 03:58:05 PM


wow. Its as if hes not even trying. money isn't everything but with numbers like that Id say this is slightly lean D.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 14, 2023, 08:07:45 PM


You vote on Thursday in Nashville.

EDIT: Dem ended up winning 75% to 22.5%, or an overperformance compared to Biden's 45-point margin.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Atlas Force on September 14, 2023, 09:52:37 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on September 15, 2023, 08:03:55 AM
Interesting how most of the press continues to be silent or completely not acknowledge these continued special election results that show Dems overperforming. Something is not clicking here with actual results and polling.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on September 15, 2023, 11:27:42 AM
Interesting how most of the press continues to be silent or completely not acknowledge these continued special election results that show Dems overperforming. Something is not clicking here with actual results and polling.

The Dobbs effect


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 15, 2023, 01:07:19 PM
Interesting how most of the press continues to be silent or completely not acknowledge these continued special election results that show Dems overperforming. Something is not clicking here with actual results and polling.

 Not only they don't acknowledge these results, reading their reporting you'll come away almost sure that Republicans are on the verge of sweeping trifectas in Virginia and Kentucky.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: 15 Down, 35 To Go on September 15, 2023, 01:51:21 PM
Interesting how most of the press continues to be silent or completely not acknowledge these continued special election results that show Dems overperforming. Something is not clicking here with actual results and polling.

I think it's more that, except in certain high-income suburbs or some racially polarized rural areas, Republicans now have a base that turns out less than Democrats' base.  In low turnout special elections in most areas, Democrats are overperforming.

It's not a coincidence that the one major special election since 2016 where Republicans overperformed was the highest profile one, GA-6 in 2017 (and also in the sort of area where turnout dynamics could still favor Republicans in off cycles).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on September 15, 2023, 01:53:17 PM
Interesting how most of the press continues to be silent or completely not acknowledge these continued special election results that show Dems overperforming. Something is not clicking here with actual results and polling.

I think it's more that, except in certain high-income suburbs or some racially polarized rural areas, Republicans now have a base that turns out less than Democrats' base.  In low turnout special elections in most areas, Democrats are overperforming.

It's not a coincidence that the one major special election since 2016 where Republicans overperformed was the highest profile one, GA-6 in 2017 (and also in the sort of area where turnout dynamics could still favor Republicans in off cycles).

Will be interesting to see if we have actually reached the point where lower turnout helps Dems in MS and VA.   I think we're already there in LA and KY.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on September 16, 2023, 12:49:16 PM
Minnesota State Representative Ruth Richardson has resigned to become the regional director of Planned Parenthood, thus setting up a special election in 52B to be held on normal election day in November.

This is an essentially Safe DFL seat, I don't have Biden numbers post redistricting but Walz won it by 30 points and even Ellison did by 19, but as always the margins might be interesting. Notably this is actually the seat where I went to work for over a decade, and technically is still where I'm based out of even working at home, although the office will be closing at the end of the month.

But what makes it even more interesting is that precursors to this seat elected both Tim Pawlenty and Doug Wardlow, the rabidly anti-LGBT whackjob who ran for Attorney General in 2018 and probably is why Ellison is AG today. Although he only served a single term after riding the 2010 wave, and at the time the seat didn't include the Mendota area which has always been fairly DFL, even when Pawlenty was in the State House (it wasn't part of the district then either.)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on September 17, 2023, 11:35:50 AM
It’s really odd how the polls are showing a tied environment, but special elections, which are very indicative of the national environment, show a Democratic landslide.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on September 17, 2023, 06:43:51 PM
It’s really odd how the polls are showing a tied environment, but special elections, which are very indicative of the national environment, show a Democratic landslide.



They were pretty indicative of the fact that last year was not going to be the expected red wave, so I don't see why that would be much different this year or next year. Even with turnout differences that still was the case ladt year. MN-1 and NE-1 obviously weren't very close in November like they were in the summer, but they were clear indications that Democrats were more motivated than expected.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on September 18, 2023, 03:41:27 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on September 18, 2023, 03:49:01 PM


Great news. should be an easy hold as a good portion of Pittsburgh is in the district including the neighborhoods of Lawrenceville, Strip District and Morningside. the suburbs of  Etna and Millvale are blue leaning. Shaler township is very competitive. Trump won it very narrowly.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on September 18, 2023, 07:05:13 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 19, 2023, 03:22:32 PM




And a tie is a back on with a matching resignation from the GOP. The November seat is safe D. Interestingly, there now are enough seats up to flip control, but that is kinda meaningless in this massive effectively-tied chamber featuring independents.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on September 19, 2023, 05:34:42 PM



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on September 19, 2023, 06:32:03 PM
Reminder that tonights PA district was Biden +23 in 2020 and D+27 in 2022.

NH was Trump+0.4 (49.1-48.7) and Hassan+8 (52.5-44.5)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on September 19, 2023, 07:03:06 PM
This was the Trump +6 town



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on September 19, 2023, 07:07:47 PM
All VBM are in for PA HD-21 and Dem is up 82-17.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on September 19, 2023, 07:33:06 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Brittain33 on September 19, 2023, 07:39:54 PM
This is why I’m not stressing about Biden’s poll numbers yet. There’s time for that next year.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on September 19, 2023, 07:40:54 PM
NH turnout was also no slouch - 60% of 2022!



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 19, 2023, 08:38:22 PM
The PA one is looking to finish about 65-35 Dem.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on September 19, 2023, 08:41:14 PM
The PA one is looking to finish about 65-35 Dem.

It was never in much doubt given part of  Pittsburgh is the district but a nice over performance.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Person Man on September 19, 2023, 08:48:43 PM
The PA one is looking to finish about 65-35 Dem.

It was never in much doubt given part of  Pittsburgh is the district but a nice over performance.

If that can be kept up, Pennsylvania looks bullish.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on September 19, 2023, 09:08:43 PM


Case in point, Shaler township went from Trump+.1 to Dem+10. But this shouldn't be that surprising,  the wealthier areas voters in a place like Allegheny are going to seak out more obscure political information for a special election.  Essentially,  these areas would have both the districts Republicans and it's most motivated Dems.

Another way of looking at it is that the 2022 coalitions with their large Democratic geographic biases seemingly have not changed. But the overall environment has, and in a way that favors the Democrats.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Skill and Chance on September 20, 2023, 07:28:07 AM
This is why I’m not stressing about Biden’s poll numbers yet. There’s time for that next year.

Single issue Trump people don't vote in special elections.  Like the difference between presidential and non-presidential turnout during Obama's presidency, but with the parties reversed.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on September 20, 2023, 07:38:26 AM
This is why I’m not stressing about Biden’s poll numbers yet. There’s time for that next year.

Single issue Trump people don't vote in special elections.  Like the difference between presidential and non-presidential turnout during Obama's presidency, but with the parties reversed.

Not exactly true - much like last years specials, GOP turnout is not bad at all.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Unelectable Bystander on September 20, 2023, 07:45:16 AM

Case in point, Shaler township went from Trump+.1 to Dem+10. But this shouldn't be that surprising,  the wealthier areas voters in a place like Allegheny are going to seak out more obscure political information for a special election.  Essentially,  these areas would have both the districts Republicans and it's most motivated Dems.

Another way of looking at it is that the 2022 coalitions with their large Democratic geographic biases seemingly have not changed. But the overall environment has, and in a way that favors the Democrats.



I agree with your post other than that it implies an improved Dem environment. You can still have a more dem-leaning electorate, even if GOP precincts uniformly turn out more than Dem precincts, if there is a confounding variable within the precincts (namely differences in turnout by partisanship and education level).

The same thing happened on the NE-1 special. GOP precincts turned out more than Dem precincts in the special but the special almost certainly had higher overall Dem turnout based on how much better the GOP candidate performed in November.

I would buy into a Dem-leaning environment if we are given data that Shaler township had the same voter registration and education distribution as 2020 or 2022.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on September 20, 2023, 11:24:11 AM
At this point, Democrats have to be pretty heavy favorites to win back the Virginia HoD this year, no?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: windjammer on September 20, 2023, 11:26:56 AM
At this point, Democrats have to be pretty heavy favorites to win back the Virginia HoD this year, no?
I tend to think that way. I have the feeling that the medias are trying to make some narrative about how great youngkin is but Virginia is too dem for that.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Person Man on September 20, 2023, 12:27:40 PM
At this point, Democrats have to be pretty heavy favorites to win back the Virginia HoD this year, no?
I tend to think that way. I have the feeling that the medias are trying to make some narrative about how great youngkin is but Virginia is too dem for that.

The narrative is definitely different than 2021.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Holmes on September 20, 2023, 02:20:03 PM
At this point, Democrats have to be pretty heavy favorites to win back the Virginia HoD this year, no?

Maybe, but Dems are also trying their best in Virginia to lose in November.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on September 20, 2023, 02:25:29 PM
At this point, Democrats have to be pretty heavy favorites to win back the Virginia HoD this year, no?

Maybe, but Dems are also trying their best in Virginia to lose in November.

lol what


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Anti Democrat Democrat Club on September 20, 2023, 05:12:45 PM


Guzofski was f**king nuts - literally on tape believing demons were real - but this was a shocking result to say the least. I'm starting to get false hope again.

(FWIW I still think the state senate and executive council are Lean R - the maps are gerrymandered to sh*t. All I know is that Cryans will attempt a comeback in EC-2 because that's what he does.)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on September 20, 2023, 05:17:16 PM
But but but.. I was told by Riverwalk NH was winnable for Trump


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on September 20, 2023, 09:28:18 PM
At this point, Democrats have to be pretty heavy favorites to win back the Virginia HoD this year, no?

Maybe, but Dems are also trying their best in Virginia to lose in November.

what? Where are you getting this notion from?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Person Man on September 21, 2023, 11:42:54 AM
At this point, Democrats have to be pretty heavy favorites to win back the Virginia HoD this year, no?

Maybe, but Dems are also trying their best in Virginia to lose in November.

what? Where are you getting this notion from?

Still obsessed with the lady in my district.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Atlas Force on September 21, 2023, 12:54:11 PM


Guzofski was f**king nuts - literally on tape believing demons were real



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on September 23, 2023, 09:11:36 AM
Final votes bump margin up to D+31.0 in PA HD-21, so officially an 8.1% swing from Bidens result (was 7.5% on election night)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on September 23, 2023, 09:29:23 AM
But but but.. I was told by Riverwalk NH was winnable for Trump
The special elections mean nothing, as Democrats have outperformed in almost every single one. This is especially in places where Democrats rely on college educated whites, who turn out in low turnout elections (as opposed to where the Democratic coalition is more minority reliant, in which they tend to underperform in special elections as minorities are less likely to turn out in low turnout elections).

The last poll done here was pretty bad for Trump, and moves my priors a bit. Still, NH is a state where there is often a huge polling shift in the last minute, and could easily be the first state (past the big 7) to flip in a good night for Trump. Also the same poll had Clinton up by 11 in NH in their final poll.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on September 23, 2023, 09:50:50 AM
But but but.. I was told by Riverwalk NH was winnable for Trump
The special elections mean nothing, as Democrats have outperformed in almost every single one. This is especially in places where Democrats rely on college educated whites, who turn out in low turnout elections (as opposed to where the Democratic coalition is more minority reliant, in which they tend to underperform in special elections as minorities are less likely to turn out in low turnout elections).

The last poll done here was pretty bad for Trump, and moves my priors a bit. Still, NH is a state where there is often a huge polling shift in the last minute, and could easily be the first state (past the big 7) to flip in a good night for Trump. Also the same poll had Clinton up by 11 in NH in their final poll.

Like I said in the other thread, UNH has had some whacky results, but you can't only include 2016. They accurately hit 2020 on the margin, and also severely underrated *Democrats* in 2022.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: oldtimer on September 23, 2023, 10:03:13 AM
The Democratic overperformance in White areas looks like +10 on whatever Biden got, similar to 2022.

Very bad news for Republicans in the swing states.

What's worse for them is that they are not doing better in Minority areas anymore, we no longer see any of those big GOP gains we got accustomed in 2022.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Person Man on September 23, 2023, 12:33:01 PM
The Democratic overperformance in White areas looks like +10 on whatever Biden got, similar to 2022.

Very bad news for Republicans in the swing states.

What's worse for them is that they are not doing better in Minority areas anymore, we no longer see any of those big GOP gains we got accustomed in 2022.

Yes, they were also collapsing with people of color, I would say that we are heading for a 2008 situation. However, with the white vote stabilizing, we could be in for a 2012 like situation. Which would probably mean that the big seven are still close, but more like Michigan than Wisconsin. Brandon might even pick up North Carolina and get Kerry margins in Ohio.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: oldtimer on September 23, 2023, 04:55:28 PM
The Democratic overperformance in White areas looks like +10 on whatever Biden got, similar to 2022.

Very bad news for Republicans in the swing states.

What's worse for them is that they are not doing better in Minority areas anymore, we no longer see any of those big GOP gains we got accustomed in 2022.

Yes, they were also collapsing with people of color, I would say that we are heading for a 2008 situation. However, with the white vote stabilizing, we could be in for a 2012 like situation. Which would probably mean that the big seven are still close, but more like Michigan than Wisconsin. Brandon might even pick up North Carolina and get Kerry margins in Ohio.

Oh I doubt that.

The state polling is very bad for Republicans in NH, ME, MN, VA ect, but they still hold OK in the others and have leads in FL, OH, IA, NC, GA, AZ , sometimes large leads.

It's the contradition between Democrats winning NH by 15 points and Republicans winning Ohio by 15 points that I don't like.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on September 24, 2023, 06:27:55 PM
The Democratic overperformance in White areas looks like +10 on whatever Biden got, similar to 2022.

Very bad news for Republicans in the swing states.

What's worse for them is that they are not doing better in Minority areas anymore, we no longer see any of those big GOP gains we got accustomed in 2022.

Yes, they were also collapsing with people of color, I would say that we are heading for a 2008 situation. However, with the white vote stabilizing, we could be in for a 2012 like situation. Which would probably mean that the big seven are still close, but more like Michigan than Wisconsin. Brandon might even pick up North Carolina and get Kerry margins in Ohio.

That's a bit too much wishful thinking to me.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Person Man on September 24, 2023, 08:43:16 PM
The Democratic overperformance in White areas looks like +10 on whatever Biden got, similar to 2022.

Very bad news for Republicans in the swing states.

What's worse for them is that they are not doing better in Minority areas anymore, we no longer see any of those big GOP gains we got accustomed in 2022.

Yes, they were also collapsing with people of color, I would say that we are heading for a 2008 situation. However, with the white vote stabilizing, we could be in for a 2012 like situation. Which would probably mean that the big seven are still close, but more like Michigan than Wisconsin. Brandon might even pick up North Carolina and get Kerry margins in Ohio.

That's a bit too much wishful thinking to me.

The fundamentals always change, but if they don’t get worse, this is reasonable.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on September 25, 2023, 05:51:37 PM
The Democratic overperformance in White areas looks like +10 on whatever Biden got, similar to 2022.

Very bad news for Republicans in the swing states.

What's worse for them is that they are not doing better in Minority areas anymore, we no longer see any of those big GOP gains we got accustomed in 2022.

Yes, they were also collapsing with people of color, I would say that we are heading for a 2008 situation. However, with the white vote stabilizing, we could be in for a 2012 like situation. Which would probably mean that the big seven are still close, but more like Michigan than Wisconsin. Brandon might even pick up North Carolina and get Kerry margins in Ohio.

That's a bit too much wishful thinking to me.

The fundamentals always change, but if they don’t get worse, this is reasonable.

I would love for that to be true. And if so, that's remarkable news for Sherrod Brown.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: warandwar on September 27, 2023, 05:30:20 PM
The Democratic overperformance in White areas looks like +10 on whatever Biden got, similar to 2022.

Very bad news for Republicans in the swing states.

What's worse for them is that they are not doing better in Minority areas anymore, we no longer see any of those big GOP gains we got accustomed in 2022.

The amount of writing here on a New Hampshire house election that had less voters than an average city block in nyc is completely unjustifiable


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Radicalneo on October 08, 2023, 10:50:45 AM
The Democratic overperformance in White areas looks like +10 on whatever Biden got, similar to 2022.

Very bad news for Republicans in the swing states.

What's worse for them is that they are not doing better in Minority areas anymore, we no longer see any of those big GOP gains we got accustomed in 2022.

The amount of writing here on a New Hampshire house election that had less voters than an average city block in nyc is completely unjustifiable
Agree


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on October 11, 2023, 12:35:09 PM
Special election in Minnesota watch:

https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-news/charges-minnesota-lawmaker-was-twice-the-legal-limit-at-time-of-arrest

0.16 BAC. Pretty serious.

I do expect there will be calls for her to resign. Incidentally in 2022 her performance sort looks like just on the cusp of possibly competitive and she won by 7 points but was a clear underperformer, but it's a district Walz won by 17 points and even Ellison slightly outran her by winning by 8 points. So really tough to see how this seat flips in a special election.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ReallySuper on November 07, 2023, 04:35:38 PM
everyones paying attention to a different election in ky rn, but theres a special house election in south lexington. it should be an easy dem hold, esp. with beshears coattail effect. its more notable bc of the minor controversy in the democratic nomination--basically, a moderate/establishment member of the party committee that selected the nominee, adrielle camuel, was chosen by her colleagues on the committee to be the nominee, over emma curtis (a young trans activist who was pretty visible during the protests against sb150 this spring and had raised $10,000 and gotten lots of endorsements in just one month of her campaign). even though this process was obviously completely unfair, emma curtis conceded the primary and endorsed camuel... until the latter said in a tv interview that she got into the race in order to combat the "extremes on both sides" of the debate over lgbtq+ rights. after pushback, she 'clarified' her statement by saying she was not talking about sb150 but about democrats who attack those in their own party and therefore help the gop (lmao). then emma curtis rescinded her endorsement in september.

this wont really affect the result but like its a total fail on the part of camuel and the party


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 07, 2023, 05:07:55 PM
Just a copy-paste of everything that is up tonight:

- Kentucky HD-93, what should be a safe D seat in and outside Lexington.

- Maine HD-50, a safe D small-town coastal seat. Uncontested Dem.

- Massachusetts Senate, Hampshire and Worcester. Potentially competitive district covering the rurals west west of Worcester, but including a bit of the city and a number of suburban towns. Dem held but buy a <10% margin in 2022.

- New Hampshire Hillsborough HD-03: A safe D seat in downtown Nashua.

- Rhode Island SD-01, uber-D majority minority seat in downtown Providence.

- South Carolina SD-42, a uber-D plurality African American district in North Charleston.

- Texas HD-02, A safe R district in East Texas.  But because of the jungle primary special election rules, and that there are 5 republican candidates,  there will probably be a runoff.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 07, 2023, 08:02:23 PM
Dem won the KY race, something like 57.5-42.5. Nowhere near the blowout expected given the governor race, closer to the national numbers. Perhaps the issue illustrated above left some tarnish.

Dems obviously win the Rhode island seat in a landside, and are the declared winners in the Maine one.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 07, 2023, 11:16:11 PM
TX HD-02 is going to a runoff between two Republicans, as expected.

Dems win 82-18 in SC SD-42






Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ReallySuper on November 08, 2023, 11:36:06 PM
Dem won the KY race, something like 57.5-42.5. Nowhere near the blowout expected given the governor race, closer to the national numbers. Perhaps the issue illustrated above left some tarnish.

Dems obviously win the Rhode island seat in a landside, and are the declared winners in the Maine one.

by my calculation, beshear outpolled the dem house candidate by 10.5 points in her district (68.8% to 58.3%) and won every precinct in it but one (where he tied cameron exactly). one of the biggest gaps was in camuel's worst precinct, where she got just 34% of the vote but beshear won it with 51.5%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Splash on November 09, 2023, 12:17:51 AM
Two Democrats in the Michigan State House won elections for mayor yesterday. On the one hand, this means that the Democrats will lose their functioning majority in the chamber for a couple of months, but it'll also mean that we'll have two special elections. Both of the seats are Safe D, IIRC.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on November 09, 2023, 08:22:02 AM
Republicans won the MA State Senate race by over 8 points. I guess there's nowhere to go but up when you're at rock bottom, but it's a start.

Apparently the new state GOP chair put a serious effort into flipping it. According to my buddy who used to work for Baker's campaign, former chair Jim Lyons was basically the Kelli Ward of MA in that he totally destroyed the state GOP apparatus, but got no attention because the state is already so blue. It's good that they're at least trying to turn things around now.

It won't become competitive at the federal level anytime soon, but down the road, I think MA is way more likely to elect another Republican governor than MD is.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: cg41386 on November 09, 2023, 10:10:24 AM
Republicans won the MA State Senate race by over 8 points. I guess there's nowhere to go but up when you're at rock bottom, but it's a start.

Apparently the new state GOP chair put a serious effort into flipping it. According to my buddy who used to work for Baker's campaign, former chair Jim Lyons was basically the Kelli Ward of MA in that he totally destroyed the state GOP apparatus, but got no attention because the state is already so blue. It's good that they're at least trying to turn things around now.

It won't become competitive at the federal level anytime soon, but down the road, I think MA is way more likely to elect another Republican governor than MD is.

MA has always been open to electing the "right" kind of GOP governors.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on November 09, 2023, 05:56:23 PM
Two Democrats in the Michigan State House won elections for mayor yesterday. On the one hand, this means that the Democrats will lose their functioning majority in the chamber for a couple of months, but it'll also mean that we'll have two special elections. Both of the seats are Safe D, IIRC.

when will the specials be?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on November 22, 2023, 10:18:49 PM
Maine State Representative Lois Galgay Reckitt (D-South Portland) died on October 30.  No special election has been called yet (the South Portland City Council would have to send a letter to the Governor asking her to call a special election, which will probably happen since there's over a year left on her term and the special election could coincide with Maine's Presidential Primary on March 5 (while such a date might benefit Republicans the seat is rock-solid D nowadays; it's on the northeast end of South Portland while it's the western end that used to sometimes elect Republicans into the mid-2000s (decade)).  Also, terms beginning on or after the third Wednesday in June of the odd year (so in the last ~73% of a term considering that terms start on the first Wednesday in December after the election) no longer count as terms for term-limits purposes under a law change enacted this year, so there's no reason why a prospective successor (and Rep. Reckitt or Galgay Reckitt (not sure if it was a dual but non-hyphenated last name or if she just liked to have her middle (and maiden) name shown on documents and such) would have been term-limited next year so people may already have been planning to run) wouldn't want to get into office sooner.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Virginiá on November 23, 2023, 09:36:04 AM
Two Democrats in the Michigan State House won elections for mayor yesterday. On the one hand, this means that the Democrats will lose their functioning majority in the chamber for a couple of months, but it'll also mean that we'll have two special elections. Both of the seats are Safe D, IIRC.

when will the specials be?

https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/whitmer-calls-for-special-election-to-fill-seats-in-michigan-legislature/

Quote
In a letter to Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, Whitmer requested a special primary election to be held on Jan. 30, 2024, and a general election on April 16.

Republican and Democratic candidates who wish to run for the seats must file affidavits of identity and nominating petitions or filing fee by 4 p.m. on Monday, Nov. 27.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 05, 2023, 07:14:01 PM
Reminder: the Minnesota Legislative District 52B special election is tonight.  Results will be here (https://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20231205) after polls close at 8pm CST.  The seat is Safe DFL.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on December 05, 2023, 07:18:26 PM
Reminder: the Minnesota Legislative District 52B special election is tonight.  Results will be here (https://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20231205) after polls close at 8pm CST.  The seat is Safe DFL.

Special election in FL HD 118 as well. It's in Miami-Dade county so past results have been all over the map but the last occupant was a Republican who won by a big margin, 68-32.

 https://enr.electionsfl.org/DAD/3465/Summary/

Trump won this district 58-42


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on December 05, 2023, 07:21:50 PM
FL HD-118 after mail/in person early.

Mike Redondo (REP) 50.98% 3,841

Johnny Gonzalo Farias (DEM) 46.28% 3,487

Francisco 'Frank' De La Paz (NPA) 2.75% 207

Not a lot of election day votes but what there are should favor the Republican.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Devils30 on December 05, 2023, 07:50:21 PM
Pretty big underperformance in such a red trending district for the GOP.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on December 05, 2023, 07:54:11 PM
With 47 of 51 election day precincts in. Nearly final results.

Mike Redondo (REP) 51.71% 4,505

Johnny Gonzalo Farias (DEM) 45.71% 3,982

Francisco 'Frank' De La Paz (NPA) 2.58% 225


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on December 05, 2023, 08:32:19 PM




I've seen some speculation that DeSantis's plummeting approvals from his shamble of a presidential campaign,  and the recent news about the state GOP chair, are to blame for this.

Though we won't have too speculate too hard, there's another FL special in a much more Dem seat in a few weeks.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Brittain33 on December 05, 2023, 08:33:14 PM
Can’t read too much into this when turnout was so abysmal. There were more than 57,000 votes cast here in 2022. Although I guess it’s surprising any time when Republican turnout is as bad as Democratic turnout in Florida.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on December 05, 2023, 08:43:35 PM
Before the polls close in MN-52B some past margins:

Biden (20) +29
Smith (20) +23
Walz (22) +30
Ellison (22) +19
Richardson* (22) +24

* DFL state Rep who won the seat in 2022 and resigned causing this special.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Atlas Force on December 05, 2023, 08:51:20 PM
Lol



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on December 05, 2023, 08:57:14 PM
Obviously this is a very underwhelming result for the GOP, but it's worth noting that Florida's rightward shift isn't just because of Miami-Dade County.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: jvmh2009 on December 05, 2023, 09:29:39 PM
Looks like an underperformance in minnesota


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on December 05, 2023, 09:39:46 PM
It should also be noted that the Dem in this Miami-Dade special, who almost matched Nelson/Gillum 2018 numbers Districtwide, was very much an unserious perennial candidate.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on December 05, 2023, 09:40:32 PM
Obviously this is a very underwhelming result for the GOP, but it's worth noting that Florida's rightward shift isn't just because of Miami-Dade County.
The cause of the shift in Miami-Dade; Hispanic Clinton-Trump voters, is the same as the cause of the shift statewide.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on December 05, 2023, 09:45:56 PM
Obviously this is a very underwhelming result for the GOP, but it's worth noting that Florida's rightward shift isn't just because of Miami-Dade County.
The cause of the shift in Miami-Dade; Hispanic Clinton-Trump voters, is the same as the cause of the shift statewide.

In some places like Osceola and parts of Tampa, yes. But it's more because of the conservative white retirees flooding into the state.

Democrats have collapsed in counties like Volusia, Pasco and Hernando. Others like Collier, Lee, Sarasota, Manatee, Lake, Brevard, Sumter aren't getting worse for them percentage-wise but are continuing to produce bigger raw vote margins for Republicans that favorable trends in the Jacksonville metro and Seminole just can't overcome.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on December 05, 2023, 09:47:58 PM
Looks like an underperformance in minnesota

Not everything's reported yet, but yes. I'm surprised. I figured this is the exact kind of district where Democrats would hold up very well.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: DrScholl on December 05, 2023, 09:50:31 PM
The recurring themes of these special elections is either that the GOP is not generating enthusiasm or that Democrats are turning out voters despite being the incumbent party nationally. One of my theories is that Republicans are relying more and more on a set of unreliable voters that Trump brought into the fold that care only about Trump.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on December 05, 2023, 09:53:24 PM
At 80% reported, MN SD-52B is only D +16.7, underperforming Biden's 29 and even Clinton's 18.

Maybe Florida is just trending left and Minnesota is just trending right. Or special elections don't mean much.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on December 05, 2023, 09:58:29 PM
Everybody has something to hang their hat on tonight. I didn't expect 54B to be Biden/Trump numbers, this is an area of the state where Trump is toxic and ran well behind generic Republicans, but I expected more like Tina Smith's +23 than the +16-18 it is likely to end up. Oh well.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on December 05, 2023, 10:04:11 PM
Obviously this is a very underwhelming result for the GOP, but it's worth noting that Florida's rightward shift isn't just because of Miami-Dade County.
The cause of the shift in Miami-Dade; Hispanic Clinton-Trump voters, is the same as the cause of the shift statewide.

In some places like Osceola and parts of Tampa, yes. But it's more because of the conservative white retirees flooding into the state.

Democrats have collapsed in counties like Volusia, Pasco and Hernando. Others like Collier, Lee, Sarasota, Manatee, Lake, Brevard, Sumter aren't getting worse for them percentage-wise but are continuing to produce bigger raw vote margins for Republicans that favorable trends in the Jacksonville metro and Seminole just can't overcome.
Rubio 22 barely outperformed Scott 18 in Sumter (and underperformed in the villages), despite way outperforming overall.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on December 05, 2023, 10:07:55 PM
Final MN SD-52B results: D +17.5. Was Clinton +18.3, Biden +29.1. Suburban Minneapolis district.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on December 05, 2023, 10:11:36 PM
Final MN SD-52B results: D +17.5. Was Clinton +18.3, Biden +29.1.

Eyeballing it, I would think this seat is at least 70-75% white and 55-60% college-educated. Considering that, pretty weak for Democrats.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on December 06, 2023, 12:59:31 PM
Turnout was decent for a December special election but still much lower than main elections, so wouldn't read too much into it, but interesting is that D dropoff by percentage occurred more in some precincts than others.

MENDOTA HTS P-2
Virnig (DFL) 246 50.72%
Lonnquist (R) 235 48.45%

Walz (DFL) 925 59.56%
Jensen (R) 607 39.09%

MENDOTA HTS P-3
Virnig (DFL) 333 63.55%
Lonnquist (R) 188 35.88%

Walz (DFL) 973 64.48%
Jensen (R) 511 33.86%

MENDOTA CITY
Virnig (DFL) 24 68.57%
Lonnquist (R) 11 31.43%

Walz (DFL) 67 60.91%
Jensen (R) 39 35.45%

So in that case actually a swing to the Democrat, but a very small sample, and not even a big sample in the governor race.

EAGAN P-01
Virnig (DFL) 328 57.04%
Lonnquist (R) 241 41.91%

Walz (DFL) 1,341 59.95%
Jensen (R) 849 37.95%


EAGAN P-10
Virnig (DFL) 314 55.58%
Lonnquist (R) 241 42.65%

Jensen (R) 670 34.88%
Walz (DFL) 1,207 62.83%

On a whole Walz won the district 63.92% to 33.94%. But the total number of votes cast (6,618) was lower than Jensen's losing vote total (7,783)
Virnig generally held up better in Eagan than Mendota Heights, but that's not odd at all because she currently sits on the school board that covers Eagan, and Lonnquist is from Mendota Heights. I'm going out on a limb and guessing P-2 is her home precinct. So factors like that plus much lower turnout can give results like this.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Brittain33 on December 06, 2023, 02:53:22 PM
Am I understanding right, both special elections showed 2016 results?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: jvmh2009 on December 06, 2023, 06:49:36 PM
Could it be that the R had run in more campaigns as was known more+ Virnig being a bad candidate?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on December 06, 2023, 07:14:38 PM
Changing my predictions:

Minnesota: Likely D > Tossup.

Florida: Safe R > Tossup.

(not really)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on December 09, 2023, 11:21:06 AM
Why have recent special elections shown Republicans outperforming massively with college educated whites (ie NH, MA, MN, and even MS-Gov) while underperforming with Cubans?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ottermax on December 09, 2023, 02:34:20 PM
Why have recent special elections shown Republicans outperforming massively with college educated whites (ie NH, MA, MN, and even MS-Gov) while underperforming with Cubans?

I don't think we have enough evidence to make this claim. If you look at other state elections this November such as Virginia and Kentucky, Democrats did well.

Perhaps there's a slight anti-incumbent mood right now, but again not enough evidence to support that either.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on December 09, 2023, 02:41:33 PM
Why have recent special elections shown Republicans outperforming massively with college educated whites (ie NH, MA, MN, and even MS-Gov) while underperforming with Cubans?

I don't think we have enough evidence to make this claim. If you look at other state elections this November such as Virginia and Kentucky, Democrats did well.

Perhaps there's a slight anti-incumbent mood right now, but again not enough evidence to support that either.
Democrats did not do well in Virginia relative to Biden 2020, and Kentucky saw the largest left trends in the Appalachia coalfields.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on December 09, 2023, 06:54:15 PM
Why have recent special elections shown Republicans outperforming massively with college educated whites (ie NH, MA, MN, and even MS-Gov) while underperforming with Cubans?

I don't think we have enough evidence to make this claim. If you look at other state elections this November such as Virginia and Kentucky, Democrats did well.

Perhaps there's a slight anti-incumbent mood right now, but again not enough evidence to support that either.
Democrats did not do well in Virginia relative to Biden 2020, and Kentucky saw the largest left trends in the Appalachia coalfields.

In Virginia the Republicans threw all they had into those races though. Investment, I feel, is becoming an underrated aspect of campaigns these days.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on December 10, 2023, 04:29:51 PM
Maine State Representative Lois Galgay Reckitt (D-South Portland) died on October 30.  No special election has been called yet (the South Portland City Council would have to send a letter to the Governor asking her to call a special election, which will probably happen since there's over a year left on her term and the special election could coincide with Maine's Presidential Primary on March 5 (while such a date might benefit Republicans the seat is rock-solid D nowadays; it's on the northeast end of South Portland while it's the western end that used to sometimes elect Republicans into the mid-2000s (decade)).  Also, terms beginning on or after the third Wednesday in June of the odd year (so in the last ~73% of a term considering that terms start on the first Wednesday in December after the election) no longer count as terms for term-limits purposes under a law change enacted this year, so there's no reason why a prospective successor (and Rep. Reckitt or Galgay Reckitt (not sure if it was a dual but non-hyphenated last name or if she just liked to have her middle (and maiden) name shown on documents and such) would have been term-limited next year so people may already have been planning to run) wouldn't want to get into office sooner.
South Portland council sets November 2024 vote to fill vacant seat in Legislature (https://www.pressherald.com/2023/12/06/south-portland-council-sets-november-2024-vote-to-fill-vacant-seat-in-legislature/) (Portland Press Herald)

The heading of the article is not entirely accurate, as there was already going to be an election for the seat (and all 186 "full fledged" (my own terminology)* Legislative seats) in November 2024, and that's the only election there will be for that seat in November.  This isn't a New York State or Texas congressional district.

The short time frame between when the election would most likely have been (March 5, coinciding with the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries in Maine) and the statutory end of the Second Regular Session of the 131st Maine Legislature (terms were for only one year until the one elected in 1880 apart from seemingly one 2-year term in the 1840s, which is how the Maine Legislature got ahead of the U.S. Congress in terms of the number of the terms) was cited as a main reason in the City Council vote against requesting that a special election be scheduled, as well as the cost involved in printing the special election ballots even if the state would pay for that, which councilors didn't seem sure about.  It's an uber-safe D seat.  It was the other end of South Portland which was competitive back in the 1990s and 2000s (decade), but even it seems safe D nowadays.

*Maine also has largely non-voting seats (although preferences in the committees they sit in are noted) for the Penobscot Nation, Passamaquoddy Tribe and the Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians, but elections for those seats in tribal council or whatever are likely held on a different day.  As it turns out, the Penobscot and the Maliseet (the latter of whom only got their seat in late 2011 or early 2012) have left their seats unfilled in protest of what they see as unfair treatment by the state.  The Passamaquoddy had joined the Penobscot in the initial withdrawal of their representatives in May 2015 several years ago, but they appointed a member following the 2016 elections and the Maliseet chose not to appoint a member after the 2018 elections and from then on.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 11, 2023, 04:41:14 PM



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Atlas Force on December 11, 2023, 05:02:35 PM






Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2023, 08:11:43 PM
Oklahoma results tonight: https://results.okelections.us/OKER/?elecDate=20231212


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on December 12, 2023, 08:32:49 PM
Early + Mail is D +8. Looks like a large Democratic overperformance though the total is only 500 or so votes right now.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on December 12, 2023, 08:42:11 PM
Still D +8 with 20% EDay precinct reporting. Could be a flip of a Trump +20 district.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2023, 08:42:43 PM
5 of 23 precincts reporting:

Candidate Choice   Absentee Mail   Early Voting   Election Day   Total Votes   
Percent

DUSTY DEEVERS (REP)   111   137   257   505   
46.12%

LARRY BUSH (DEM)   118   172   300   590   
53.88%

Total   229   309   557   1,095


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on December 12, 2023, 08:43:46 PM
The caveat is that the EDay reporting precincts look disproportionately bluer from the more densely populated parts of the district. Only 1/7 of the rural part has reported with 6/21 overall.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on December 12, 2023, 08:51:46 PM
Based on completed precinct results looks like a 20-25% R underperformance versus 2022’s R +35 result.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2023, 08:54:54 PM
10 of 23 precincts reporting:

Candidate Choice Absentee Mail Early Voting Election Day Total Votes
Percent

DUSTY DEEVERS (REP) 111 137 791 1,039
48.42%

LARRY BUSH (DEM) 118 172 817 1,107
51.58%

Total 229 309 1,608 2,146


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on December 12, 2023, 09:02:58 PM
Deevers seems to be doing well in the first rural denser precinct reported, outperforming Stitt by 10 and only underperforming the 2022 R by 13.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2023, 09:03:44 PM
Deevers takes the lead with 15 of 23 precincts reporting:

Candidate Choice   Absentee Mail   Early Voting   Election Day   Total Votes   
Percent

DUSTY DEEVERS (REP)   111   137   1,574   1,822   
50.85%

LARRY BUSH (DEM)   118   172   1,471   1,761   
49.15%

Total   229   309   3,045   3,583


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2023, 09:09:04 PM
Deevers now up 55-45 with 19/23 precincts reporting.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on December 12, 2023, 09:12:20 PM
Finished at R +10.96, a 9 point underperformance of Trump 2020 and 26 point underperformance of 2022. Candidate wanted to ban all abortion and porn.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2023, 09:18:26 PM
Finished at R +10.96, a 9 point underperformance of Trump 2020 and 26 point underperformance of 2022. Candidate wanted to ban all abortion and porn.

He also wants to ban no-fault divorce, according to what I've seen on Twitter.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Yellowhammer on December 12, 2023, 09:48:03 PM
Finished at R +10.96, a 9 point underperformance of Trump 2020 and 26 point underperformance of 2022. Candidate wanted to ban all abortion and porn.

He also wants to ban no-fault divorce, according to what I've seen on Twitter.

Good


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Senator Incitatus on December 12, 2023, 09:49:53 PM
Finished at R +10.96, a 9 point underperformance of Trump 2020 and 26 point underperformance of 2022. Candidate wanted to ban all abortion and porn.

He also wants to ban no-fault divorce, according to what I've seen on Twitter.

This is actually probably the least controversial of the three.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2023, 09:58:19 PM
Finished at R +10.96, a 9 point underperformance of Trump 2020 and 26 point underperformance of 2022. Candidate wanted to ban all abortion and porn.

He also wants to ban no-fault divorce, according to what I've seen on Twitter.

This is actually probably the least controversial of the three.

I suspect that it would be the most unpopular policy of the three, although I’d like to see some surveys on it.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on December 13, 2023, 10:06:46 AM
Interesting that the Dem outperformed the most in the urban areas, something we don't normally see in these specials.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on December 13, 2023, 06:58:18 PM
Dusty Deevers sounds like a porn name.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on December 15, 2023, 02:47:11 PM

This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on December 15, 2023, 03:56:14 PM

This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.
Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on December 15, 2023, 04:00:52 PM

This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.
Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

You hope


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Tekken_Guy on December 15, 2023, 04:03:35 PM

This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.
Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

It isn’t going to flip. It’s a more WWC seat so special election overperformances are harder for Rs here.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on December 15, 2023, 04:56:22 PM
This makes the State House now tied, although I think it's moot because the legislature isn't in session. And it means it flipping would flip control, meaning that the Democrats aren't going to just ignore it.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 15, 2023, 05:33:13 PM

This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.
Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

Not impossible to see D+20, given what happened in Oklahoma on the same night.  One conclusion is as valid as the other.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 15, 2023, 05:39:39 PM

This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.
Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

Based off of… one special election?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 15, 2023, 07:33:21 PM

This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.
Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

Based off of… one special election?

And completely ignoring the other one on the same night.  But he sees through (R)ose-colored glasses.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on December 15, 2023, 09:03:04 PM

This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.
Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

Based off of… one special election?

And completely ignoring the other one on the same night.  But he sees through (R)ose-colored glasses.
I have long believed that Florida is trending left, so the result was expected. Their only other recent outperformance (which wasn't even as big as Florida's) was against someone who called for banning no-fault divorce, abortion, and porn.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on December 15, 2023, 09:44:20 PM
Maine State Representative Lois Galgay Reckitt (D-South Portland) died on October 30.  No special election has been called yet (the South Portland City Council would have to send a letter to the Governor asking her to call a special election, which will probably happen since there's over a year left on her term and the special election could coincide with Maine's Presidential Primary on March 5 (while such a date might benefit Republicans the seat is rock-solid D nowadays; it's on the northeast end of South Portland while it's the western end that used to sometimes elect Republicans into the mid-2000s (decade)).  Also, terms beginning on or after the third Wednesday in June of the odd year (so in the last ~73% of a term considering that terms start on the first Wednesday in December after the election) no longer count as terms for term-limits purposes under a law change enacted this year, so there's no reason why a prospective successor (and Rep. Reckitt or Galgay Reckitt (not sure if it was a dual but non-hyphenated last name or if she just liked to have her middle (and maiden) name shown on documents and such) would have been term-limited next year so people may already have been planning to run) wouldn't want to get into office sooner.
South Portland council sets November 2024 vote to fill vacant seat in Legislature (https://www.pressherald.com/2023/12/06/south-portland-council-sets-november-2024-vote-to-fill-vacant-seat-in-legislature/) (Portland Press Herald)

The heading of the article is not entirely accurate, as there was already going to be an election for the seat (and all 186 "full fledged" (my own terminology)* Legislative seats) in November 2024, and that's the only election there will be for that seat in November.  This isn't a New York State or Texas congressional district.

The short time frame between when the election would most likely have been (March 5, coinciding with the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries in Maine) and the statutory end of the Second Regular Session of the 131st Maine Legislature (terms were for only one year until the one elected in 1880 apart from seemingly one 2-year term in the 1840s, which is how the Maine Legislature got ahead of the U.S. Congress in terms of the number of the terms) was cited as a main reason in the City Council vote against requesting that a special election be scheduled, as well as the cost involved in printing the special election ballots even if the state would pay for that, which councilors didn't seem sure about.  It's an uber-safe D seat.  It was the other end of South Portland which was competitive back in the 1990s and 2000s (decade), but even it seems safe D nowadays.

*Maine also has largely non-voting seats (although preferences in the committees they sit in are noted) for the Penobscot Nation, Passamaquoddy Tribe and the Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians, but elections for those seats in tribal council or whatever are likely held on a different day.  As it turns out, the Penobscot and the Maliseet (the latter of whom only got their seat in late 2011 or early 2012) have left their seats unfilled in protest of what they see as unfair treatment by the state.  The Passamaquoddy had joined the Penobscot in the initial withdrawal of their representatives in May 2015 several years ago, but they appointed a member following the 2016 elections and the Maliseet chose not to appoint a member after the 2018 elections and from then on.
Special election to be held March 5 to fill vacant state House seat in South Portland (https://www.pressherald.com/2023/12/15/special-election-to-be-held-march-5-to-fill-vacant-state-house-seat-in-south-portland/) (Portland Press Herald)

Special election set to fill House District 122 seat (https://www.maine.gov/sos/news/2023/SpecialElectionHD122.html) (Secretary of State's Office press release on the election being scheduled and the various deadlines)

Party committee (D/R/Green/Libertarian) "caucus" paperwork/non-party candidate petition (50 signatures needed) deadline: 5:00 p.m. on Friday, December 29, 2023

Write-in candidate deadline (for a "declaration of write-in candidacy", without which votes cast for you are counted as blanks): 5:00 p.m. on Wednesday, January 3, 2024

Election date: Tuesday, March 5, 2024 (coincident with Maine's Democratic and Republican Presidential Primary elections)

It appears that everyone assumed the order on last week's meeting would be passed, and so no one actually contacted them urging them to pass it while someone did speak on the other side at last week's meeting.  But when it became known that the Council had voted to leave the seat vacant, residents of the vacant House districts and others in the city, including other members of the South Portland legislative delegation, started contacting City Councilors, who reversed course in a 6-1 (although the Mayor reported it as 5 to 1, like he's able to vote at the same time as the other Councilors but his vote only is only counted officially if it breaks a tie).

If you have like 70 minutes to kill and want to see how municipal government discussions of special elections go in Maine's fourth largest city (26,498 people as of and according to the 2020 census), you can view recordings of the December 5, 2023 meeting (https://videoplayer.telvue.com/player/NzN-Z2CpIDNbXMWB16nIzGKjRlHJozGq/playlists/4006/media/840580) (relevant portion from 26:05 to 36:26) and the December 12, 2023 meeting (https://videoplayer.telvue.com/player/NzN-Z2CpIDNbXMWB16nIzGKjRlHJozGq/playlists/4006/media/842309) (relevant portion from to 1:01 to 58:05).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on December 15, 2023, 10:47:18 PM

This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.
Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.
The Republican in that Minnesota special election already had a network and ground game set up because she was the candidate for that seat in 2022. That went far in a low turnout election. This seat was unopposed last election so there's no one comparable.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on December 16, 2023, 12:36:27 AM

This is a Biden +10 seat in Lower Bucks County, although the incumbent (who was a Dem) was unopposed last year.
Not impossible to see a flip, given what happened in Minnesota. It really seems like the special election environment has changed post November.

You’re making a huge assumption based on just one election.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on December 20, 2023, 01:40:54 PM



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Boobs on December 20, 2023, 05:44:29 PM



 I believe Arizona does not have legislative special elections, and instead vacancies are filled by a committee of the departing member's party.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MaxQue on December 20, 2023, 07:43:10 PM



 I believe Arizona does not have legislative special elections, and instead vacancies are filled by a committee of the departing member's party.

That committee selects three persons, the final choice is made by the relevent county government (Maricopa; 4 R, 1 D).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on December 21, 2023, 10:26:33 PM
()

Something seems up since the restart of student loan payments and Israel-Gaza in October.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on December 22, 2023, 01:14:00 PM
()

Something seems up since the restart of student loan payments and Israel-Gaza in October.

Those things may not be helping Democrats, but I think it's hard to discern what impact they have in down-ballot races entirely.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Birdish on December 22, 2023, 01:45:24 PM
Those swings seem extremely random with no discernable pattern. Also, having a special election 4 days before Christmas on a random Thursday seems like a recipe for nonexistent turnout.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on December 22, 2023, 02:36:22 PM
Special elections only count when there is a D overperformance.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: jvmh2009 on December 27, 2023, 02:45:00 PM
Okay. I married ethan chens and Nathan rakichs sheets to analyze by year,month,state,etc for each year starting with 2017. Check out the link below. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yjP5MyzWY0KITB1YWyZmCQ8T_-geDfVx7Z4aHq93PwQ/edit?usp=drivesdk

Other than 2017/2018 dems do worse in november,december,and january than the other months.  What's really interesting is looking at the year average and the popular margin for each year.... it's eerily accurate. We will see how 2024 special elections go, but if they stay somewhat similar next year.... may be looking at a blowout. Or the whole special election analysis is astrology for election nerds... which is the theory I lean towards.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on January 02, 2024, 09:15:10 PM

15 point over performance by a democrat in a heavily black district, more evidence of blexit.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on January 02, 2024, 09:34:51 PM

15 point over performance by a democrat in a heavily black district, more evidence of blexit.
Majority black district in South Carolina for reference.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on January 03, 2024, 10:53:52 AM
Interesting that Dems continue to do well in these majority black specials. But I was told Dems would continue to implode with black voters...


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on January 03, 2024, 10:57:58 AM
Interesting that Dems continue to do well in these majority black specials. But I was told Dems would continue to implode with black voters...

and i was told there had been shift in special elections showing a worsening environment for Democrats yet this seems to indicate what happened in Minnesota and Delaware were outliers. Fun fact Tamika Devine ran for mayor of Columbia in 2022.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on January 03, 2024, 01:04:55 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on January 03, 2024, 02:03:31 PM

Trump +25 district.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Schiff for Senate on January 03, 2024, 02:21:01 PM

Trump +25 district.

Atlanta suburbs or elsewhere?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Tekken_Guy on January 03, 2024, 02:28:16 PM

Trump +25 district.

Atlanta suburbs or elsewhere?

Augusta suburbs.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on January 03, 2024, 02:45:17 PM

Trump +25 district.

Atlanta suburbs or elsewhere?
Columbia County is suburban Augusta, but the district seems to be on the fringes, so kind of a  mix of Augusta suburbs with exurbs and some rural areas (it also stretches outside the county.)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on January 03, 2024, 03:07:35 PM

Trump +25 district.

Atlanta suburbs or elsewhere?
Columbia County is suburban Augusta, but the district seems to be on the fringes, so kind of a  mix of Augusta suburbs with exurbs and some rural areas (it also stretches outside the county.)

I believe Spectator has mentioned he's from Columbia County.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on January 09, 2024, 08:11:17 PM



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on January 09, 2024, 10:53:56 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on January 10, 2024, 04:34:48 AM
Democrats overperform in deep blue districts, Republicans overperform in deep red ones.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on January 10, 2024, 10:02:57 AM
Democrats overperform in deep blue districts, Republicans overperform in deep red ones.

Not exactly true, Dems overperformed in the Alabama special last night. I believe it was R+66 in a Trump +73 district


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Brittain33 on January 10, 2024, 11:15:56 AM
Virginia who? never heard of her. When's the next real special election? (waves hands)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ajc0918 on January 16, 2024, 08:51:38 AM
It's Election Day in FL House District 35 which was previously held by a republican but was won by Biden in 2020. Dems went into election day with a 650 voter turnout advantage (D+4.8%). Election day is expected to be heavily GOP and the race is expected to be close.

Both sides have spent over $1.5M+ with the GOP having a spending edge (typical in Florida).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Brittain33 on January 16, 2024, 01:57:36 PM
I’ve gotten so many calls for this race because of my phone number being incorrectly linked with a Democrat named Karen in this district.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on January 16, 2024, 02:46:17 PM
As a lover of NJ politics, I still can't get over the fact that the Democratic candidate here is named Tom Keen.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on January 16, 2024, 04:17:18 PM
Where is Wbrocks67 to tell us how this means Dems will win in 2024 by a landslide?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on January 16, 2024, 04:31:12 PM
Where is Wbrocks67 to tell us how this means Dems will win in 2024 by a landslide?

Sis you are one of the last people to mock anyone about election predictions after 2022...


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Nyvin on January 16, 2024, 07:20:33 PM
Wow, the Democrat won BIG with NPA's.



Impressive comeback for the Dem in FL.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on January 16, 2024, 07:21:10 PM
From DDHQ:

Tom Keen   DEM   11,376   
51.3%

Erika Booth   GOP   10,778   
48.7%

>99% est. reporting


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on January 16, 2024, 07:22:54 PM
I suppose Riverwalk deserves his accolades.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on January 16, 2024, 07:23:09 PM
Another example of why you take party turnout with a grain of salt in local races.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ferguson97 on January 16, 2024, 07:25:04 PM
Nikki Fried is magic


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: DrScholl on January 16, 2024, 07:26:46 PM
It helps when your opponent is a Moms for Liberty idiot.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Atlas Force on January 16, 2024, 07:31:45 PM
As a lover of NJ politics, I still can't get over the fact that the Democratic candidate here is named Tom Keen.

“Tom Keen” is also the name of a character in the show The Blacklist (https://t.co/mN5M8ifRuf)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 16, 2024, 07:33:06 PM
Another example of why you take party turnout with a grain of salt in local races.

As usual these days, Dems outperforming the supposed baseline of the electorate hard thanks to persuasion/conversion.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Atlas Force on January 16, 2024, 07:36:18 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on January 16, 2024, 07:51:05 PM
A special election in a state likely to trend left in 2024 doesn't mean much. The overall special election picture since November has been good for Republicans.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on January 16, 2024, 07:54:55 PM
Another example of why you take party turnout with a grain of salt in local races.

As usual these days, Dems outperforming the supposed baseline of the electorate hard thanks to persuasion/conversion.
No, it's because every single right-leaning person has reregistered as R in Florida. This gives R a huge registration advantage in Florida, but it doesn't translate to actual votes.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on January 16, 2024, 08:07:19 PM
Nice, and with a turnout disadvantage.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on January 16, 2024, 08:07:56 PM
Another example of why you take party turnout with a grain of salt in local races.

As usual these days, Dems outperforming the supposed baseline of the electorate hard thanks to persuasion/conversion.
No, it's because every single right-leaning person has reregistered as R in Florida. This gives R a huge registration advantage in Florida, but it doesn't translate to actual votes.

I was talking about the voter registration of the actual voters in this special election, which is readily available in real time on Florida counties websites. There were over 1,000 more registered Republicans voting than Democrats. "Twitter election experts" were all over these stats and predicting an easy Republican win.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on January 16, 2024, 08:14:35 PM
Another example of why you take party turnout with a grain of salt in local races.

As usual these days, Dems outperforming the supposed baseline of the electorate hard thanks to persuasion/conversion.
No, it's because every single right-leaning person has reregistered as R in Florida. This gives R a huge registration advantage in Florida, but it doesn't translate to actual votes.

I was talking about the voter registration of the actual voters in this special election, which is readily available in real time on Florida counties websites. There were over 1,000 more registered Republicans voting than Democrats. "Twitter election experts" were all over these stats and predicting an easy Republican win.
Rs went from a 100k registration deficit to a 700k registration advantage in Florida in the last 3 years. This doesn't reflect the reality of how the state actually shifted. Thus, Ds are winning most the NPAs in Florida right now.

There have been certain posters who keep talking about how the massive Republican gain in registration in Florida means that the state has shifted right a lot. I have consistently pushed back on this for the last few months.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on January 16, 2024, 08:23:00 PM
I suppose one copium point the Republicans could make is turnout was still fairly low, it was only about 37% of 2022's. But that's not really that bad for a January special, and kind of destroys any narrative that Democrats are demoralized.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ProgressiveModerate on January 16, 2024, 08:30:07 PM
Literally the first remotely positive sign for Dems in FL in forever, though it's still an underperformance of Biden 2020. In general, though, greater Orlando is one of the few places in FL where Dems have made decently consistent gains over the past 2 decades. One thing that is impressive though is this is a seat where Dems rely in large part on non-white voters, non-white voters that don't always show up.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on January 16, 2024, 08:52:28 PM
Literally the first remotely positive sign for Dems in FL in forever, though it's still an underperformance of Biden 2020. In general, though, greater Orlando is one of the few places in FL where Dems have made decently consistent gains over the past 2 decades. One thing that is impressive though is this is a seat where Dems rely in large part on non-white voters, non-white voters that don't always show up.

It's not though? They had the Jacksonville Mayoral race and another special in December that were both really great for them in the last few months.

This is a Biden +5/DeSantis +12 district. To act as if a D winning by 3% here, when they were also outspent 5:1 is anything but a great performance would be completely wrong.

Most stunning thing here is how they likely won Indies by huge margins. Once again hard to matchup with polls that show Indies going for double digits nationally to Trump.

Oh and last thing, basically ignore everyone who tries to forecast FL races on Twitter during the day. Nearly everyone got it wrong.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Devils30 on January 16, 2024, 10:16:57 PM
Literally the first remotely positive sign for Dems in FL in forever, though it's still an underperformance of Biden 2020. In general, though, greater Orlando is one of the few places in FL where Dems have made decently consistent gains over the past 2 decades. One thing that is impressive though is this is a seat where Dems rely in large part on non-white voters, non-white voters that don't always show up.

It's not though? They had the Jacksonville Mayoral race and another special in December that were both really great for them in the last few months.

This is a Biden +5/DeSantis +12 district. To act as if a D winning by 3% here, when they were also outspent 5:1 is anything but a great performance would be completely wrong.

Most stunning thing here is how they likely won Indies by huge margins. Once again hard to matchup with polls that show Indies going for double digits nationally to Trump.

Oh and last thing, basically ignore everyone who tries to forecast FL races on Twitter during the day. Nearly everyone got it wrong.

I don't think Dems are going to slip as much in Orlando, Duval, Pinellas counties compared to Dade, Palm Beach and areas clearly trending away from them.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on January 16, 2024, 11:04:30 PM
My take on this is that Democrats' only chance to have a future in Florida is exclusively through special elections. I'll take it, but I am still certain that Florida is not worth large-scale investment by Democrats in the future.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mr. Matt on January 17, 2024, 07:12:26 AM
As a lover of NJ politics, I still can't get over the fact that the Democratic candidate here is named Tom Keen.

This one won 34 years to the day the original Tom Kean left office.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Person Man on January 17, 2024, 10:20:45 AM
How much did Biden win it by? The Democrat won this by 3. So if Biden did well here, it could be bad for Democrats, but if it was really close, this actually is good. Crazy thing is I considered moving to this district once. There is a nice little community/lifestyle center called Avalon Park there.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on January 17, 2024, 10:28:26 AM
How much did Biden win it by? The Democrat won this by 3. So if Biden did well here, it could be bad for Democrats, but if it was really close, this actually is good. Crazy thing is I considered moving to this district once. There is a nice little community/lifestyle center called Avalon Park there.

Biden won by 4.9%, D last night won by 2.6%, so a 2% underperformance. But honestly given the spending disparity, DeSantis winning it by double digits in 2022, and how allegedly 'unpopular' Biden/Ds are nationwide, that number in a vacuum is pretty damn good imo.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Person Man on January 17, 2024, 10:43:38 AM
How much did Biden win it by? The Democrat won this by 3. So if Biden did well here, it could be bad for Democrats, but if it was really close, this actually is good. Crazy thing is I considered moving to this district once. There is a nice little community/lifestyle center called Avalon Park there.

Biden won by 4.9%, D last night won by 2.6%, so a 2% underperformance. But honestly given the spending disparity, DeSantis winning it by double digits in 2022, and how allegedly 'unpopular' Biden/Ds are nationwide, that number in a vacuum is pretty damn good imo.

That would still map to a Democrat +2% environment, which could keep things really close in the House and Presidency. Especially if Trump isn't as efficient this time.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on January 17, 2024, 11:13:33 AM
How much did Biden win it by? The Democrat won this by 3. So if Biden did well here, it could be bad for Democrats, but if it was really close, this actually is good. Crazy thing is I considered moving to this district once. There is a nice little community/lifestyle center called Avalon Park there.

Biden won by 4.9%, D last night won by 2.6%, so a 2% underperformance. But honestly given the spending disparity, DeSantis winning it by double digits in 2022, and how allegedly 'unpopular' Biden/Ds are nationwide, that number in a vacuum is pretty damn good imo.

That would still map to a Democrat +2% environment, which could keep things really close in the House and Presidency. Especially if Trump isn't as efficient this time.

538 has the partisan lean of the seat as D+1, so yes this would be a 2% overperformance.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ηєω ƒяσηтιєя on January 17, 2024, 12:46:15 PM
The special election win is cool and all but Florida is still Florida.

It's a Trump state through and through and his voters will show up for him in November.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on January 17, 2024, 02:05:54 PM
The special election win is cool and all but Florida is still Florida.

It's a Trump state through and through and his voters will show up for him in November.
Yeah I don't think anyone disputes that, but it is a counter to the "Dems in disarray" narrative.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: It’s so Joever on January 17, 2024, 02:07:28 PM
Red avatars are cheering a slight underperformance of Biden on here.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ajc0918 on January 17, 2024, 02:57:38 PM
Yes, the Dem in Florida underperformed Biden but relative to the partisan composition of the special election he overperformed. In this special election the electorate was 10% more Republican than in 2020, and yet the Democratic candidate only underperformed Biden by ~2.3 points. This is a testament of getting friendly NPAs out to vote.


()

https://mcimaps.substack.com/p/issue-150-democrats-flip-fl-house


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: heatcharger on January 17, 2024, 05:39:06 PM
The only real takeaway is that 6 week abortion bans are absolutely killing Republicans with women and there’s no point denying it.

TRUMP does not have this problem.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on January 17, 2024, 05:44:35 PM
The only real takeaway is that 6 week abortion bans are absolutely killing Republicans with women and there’s no point denying it.

TRUMP does not have this problem.
Keep telling yourself that lol.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Atlas Force on January 17, 2024, 06:03:33 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on January 17, 2024, 06:58:58 PM
The only real takeaway is that 6 week abortion bans are absolutely killing Republicans with women and there’s no point denying it.

TRUMP does not have this problem.
Keep telling yourself that lol.
Even if Biden improves in Florida, he probably will still do worse in the rest of the nation.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on January 17, 2024, 07:02:55 PM
Red avatars are cheering a slight underperformance of Biden on here.

It's the Florida bell curve. The last time we were able to celebrate any election in Florida was when the two Miami districts flipped Democrat for one term back in 2018.


The only real takeaway is that 6 week abortion bans are absolutely killing Republicans with women and there’s no point denying it.

TRUMP does not have this problem.

Yeah, the guy who is bragging about overturning Roe V. Wade won't have a problem.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 23, 2024, 05:29:26 PM
Potentially more interesting than the NH Presidential Primary are the Two Special legislative elections occurring concurrently. As per usual in the NH state House, the balance is on a knifes edge, but realistically control isn't changing. 3 Independents (2 former D 1 former R) could give Dems control if they so wished at several points since last years Specials, but a 1 seat majority in a 400 man chamber is worth less than then their paychecks.

Up tonight is 2 of 4 vacancies. One D, one R. The upcoming two are D. Again, if D's just hold their own the math is 199 R - 196 D, 3 I. So Dems would like the Flip to nominally put them ahead after March, but that's going to be hard given turnout will probably favor the GOP.

Also up tonight is a D held seat in Connecticut.

NH Coos 1 (GOP Held) Trump+8. Stratford, Northumberland, Lancaster, and Dalton along the Vermont Border. Flip unlikely since the universe of voters will likely be more Republican.

NH Coos 6 (Dem Held) Biden+12. Bunch of ski towns and empty hamlets in the southeast corner of the county. The only time the GOP carried this in the last decade was the two Sununu landslides, so a GOP flip through presidential enthusiasm is also unlikely.

CT HD 155 (Dem Held) Biden+24. White Southern part of West Haven outside of New Haven.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on January 23, 2024, 06:29:31 PM
Only on this forum would people spin a flip as bad news for the Democrats. You all have a worse case of Dems in Disarray syndrome than Politico.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on January 23, 2024, 09:17:44 PM
Dems held onto CT HD 155 by 32 points, an 8-point improvement from Biden '20.

Not sure about the status of the NH races.

EDIT: Reps look likely to flip Coos 6 in NH. Should probably discard the race while talking about special election-national environment correlation because of the obvious Republican turnout advantage.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Vosem on January 23, 2024, 09:58:44 PM
Dems held onto CT HD 155 by 32 points, an 8-point improvement from Biden '20.

Not sure about the status of the NH races.

EDIT: Reps look likely to flip Coos 6 in NH. Should probably discard the race while talking about special election-national environment correlation because of the obvious Republican turnout advantage.

Notably, the Democratic victory in Connecticut was 54-22, with an independent winning 21%.

Would theoretically be a very impressive victory for the GOP in New Hampshire but obviously it's fully explained by the circumstances.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Atlas Force on January 24, 2024, 02:10:28 AM
The independent in the Connecticut race, Edward O’Brien, is the former mayor of West Haven (the previous representative for this district is the current mayor, her resigning to take that office is why there was a special in the first place). O’Brien was a Democrat while he was mayor - impressive that the actual Dem candidate overperformed Biden even with the vote split.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GM Team Member and Senator WB on January 24, 2024, 08:37:04 AM


EDIT: Reps look likely to flip Coos 6 in NH. Should probably discard the race while talking about special election-national environment correlation because of the obvious Republican turnout advantage.

especially because NH's districts are so small. Easily could be a question of personal or local connections for a specific candidate more than anything else.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on January 30, 2024, 09:46:09 AM
Special election incoming in Georgia HD-139:

Quote
Georgia Rep. Richard Smith, who led the powerful House Rules Committee that set the agenda for votes in the state House, has died suddenly at age 78 after fighting the flu.

Smith, a Republican from Columbus, was known for his steady leadership as a close ally to both current House Speaker Jon Burns and his predecessor, House Speaker David Ralston.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/georgia-rep-richard-smith-chairman-of-house-rules-committee-dies/KNNTEZ5ZZVBNFGFSWHJGFHTKKA/

And a weird bit:

Quote
Three Rules chairman have died in office in recent years: Smith, state Rep. Jay Powell in 2019, and state Rep. John Meadows in 2018.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 30, 2024, 07:31:47 PM
Special election runoff tonight in East Texas between two Republicans. I don't think I can summarize it better than JMC, so..:





Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Babeuf on January 30, 2024, 09:00:28 PM
The other relevant divide here is that Dutton is backed by Speaker Phelan and the House establishment, whereas Money is backed by Abbott, Paxton and the state party. Kind of a preview of the big upcoming primaries against Phelan and his allies in the House.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 30, 2024, 09:08:18 PM
The other relevant divide here is that Dutton is backed by Speaker Phelan and the House establishment, whereas Money is backed by Abbott, Paxton and the state party. Kind of a preview of the big upcoming primaries against Phelan and his allies in the House.

Overall vote with all EV no precincts:

Money 3164, Dutton 3120. Apparently in the Blanket Primary Money did about 4 points worse with Precincts compared to EV.

So yes, I would say a good preview for bitter primary divides.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on January 30, 2024, 10:27:29 PM
With apparently 100% of the vote in, Dutton Wins.

The EV was Money 3164, Dutton 3120 as stated before.

E-Day precincts were 3702 Dutton, 3551 Money.

So Dutton wins 50.4% to 49.6%. Very tight as to be expected from a proxy for various regional and state interests.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ProgressiveModerate on January 31, 2024, 12:01:53 AM
Special election runoff tonight in East Texas between two Republicans. I don't think I can summarize it better than JMC, so..:





I know there's been some infighting in the TX GOP with many rural members opposing certain aspects of Abbott's agenda like vouchers that would hurt their local schools and such. Is the divide in this race just 100% pro-Abbott vs disagreeing with Abbott on certain issues.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: progressive85 on February 09, 2024, 07:55:56 PM
There is an under-the-radar PA House race in Bucks County that can determine the balance of power.  The election will be on Tuesday.

It is District 140, to fill the vacancy left by John Galloway (D).
https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_District_140 (https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_District_140)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on February 09, 2024, 08:18:03 PM
There is an under-the-radar PA House race in Bucks County that can determine the balance of power.  The election will be on Tuesday.

It is District 140, to fill the vacancy left by John Galloway (D).
https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_District_140 (https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_District_140)

Every state house race in PA determines control lol. This is a rather Dem leaning seat adjacent to Levittown and Trenton.

There's quite a few specials up on Tuesday. In addition to NY03, there is:

- Oklahoma HD39, what should be a safe R hold outside OKC.

- Georgia HD125 and SD30, both should be safe R holds. The house seat is in the suburbs north of Augusta,  the senate seat in the exurbs southwest of Atlanta. Both didn't even have Dem challengers in 2022. Though there may be runoffs since there is a large number of Republicans in each race.

- NY HD77, should be a safe D hold in the Bronx.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: progressive85 on February 09, 2024, 08:33:19 PM
There is an under-the-radar PA House race in Bucks County that can determine the balance of power.  The election will be on Tuesday.

It is District 140, to fill the vacancy left by John Galloway (D).
https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_District_140 (https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_District_140)

Every state house race in PA determines control lol. This is a rather Dem leaning seat adjacent to Levittown and Trenton.

There's quite a few specials up on Tuesday. In addition to NY03, there is:

- Oklahoma HD39, what should be a safe R hold outside OKC.

- Georgia HD125 and SD30, both should be safe R holds. The house seat is in the suburbs north of Augusta,  the senate seat in the exurbs southwest of Atlanta. Both didn't even have Dem challengers in 2022. Though there may be runoffs since there is a large number of Republicans in each race.

- NY HD77, should be a safe D hold in the Bronx.

I forgot about NY 3 on Tuesday too... thank u

Yes, just to clarify for everyone.  In the PA House, the parties are basically tied so that any vacancy (and there have been a few since the 2022 election) and PA House is one of those key swing chambers.  Republicans were thought to be the favorites but Democrats, under the new maps, did much better than anyone thought and took an unexpected majority.

So every single vacancy in PA matters because it could possibly tip control.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on February 10, 2024, 09:56:00 AM
We could be looking at an overperformance for PA HD140 on Tuesday vs. 2020 prez, since it's pretty blue downballot (McCaffery won by 22 last year)

2016 prez: Clinton +10
2020 prez: Biden +10
2022 senate: Fetterman +16
2022 congressional: Fitzpatrick +3
2023 Supreme Court: McCaffery +22


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on February 13, 2024, 02:35:07 PM



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Atlas Force on February 13, 2024, 03:24:54 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on February 13, 2024, 07:58:56 PM
Early vote has Republican Timothy J. Bearden ahead in GA SD-30 by >50%, with a Dem in second place.

HD-125 is currently looking at a R v R runoff between Gary Richardson with over 40% of the vote and CJ Pearson with 28%.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on February 13, 2024, 08:06:17 PM
Early vote has Republican Timothy J. Bearden ahead in GA SD-30 by >50%, with a Dem in second place.

HD-125 is currently looking at a R v R runoff between Gary Richardson with over 40% of the vote and CJ Pearson with 28%.

FWIW, the state GOP leadership has been working hard against Pearson.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on February 13, 2024, 08:10:26 PM
And that’s that in Pennsylvania. Dems hold the state house and Prokopiac is poised to outperform Biden very heavily.

It was Biden +10 btw.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on February 13, 2024, 08:11:20 PM
Very curious what the final margin will be but jesus christ, that is just an insane #. GOP continues to drop the ball with VBM.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on February 13, 2024, 08:29:59 PM
Dem currently ahead in the Oklahoma race as well 229-198-10.

Obviously all EV and a small total with 0 precents reporting.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on February 13, 2024, 09:00:53 PM
It's wild though that it's 9pm and there's no election day results in PA. Not sure what's going on there.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on February 13, 2024, 09:01:41 PM
GA SD 30 is done:

Timothy J. Bearden (Rep) 4,548, 58.87%,

Ashley Kecskes Godwin (Dem) 1,327, 17.18%

Robert ''Bob'' Smith (Rep) 989,  12.80%

Renae Bell (Rep) 862, 11.16%

Bearden wins outright.

Also the GOP has take a confident lead in their Oklahoma defense after some precincts reported. 51-45


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on February 13, 2024, 09:23:01 PM
It’s looking like a 21-point over performance for the Dem in the Oklahoma race.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 13, 2024, 09:23:16 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on February 13, 2024, 09:23:31 PM
Oklahoma HD39 Done.

ERICK HARRIS (REP)   2,507, 50.37%

REGAN RAFF (DEM)   2,246, 45.13%

RICHARD PRAWDZIENSKI (LIB)   224 4.5%

Another classic Oklahoma Dems overperforance, this time in a Trump+26 seat, Though not enough.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on February 13, 2024, 09:25:23 PM
Wow. Looks like PA/OK should balance out GA lol.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on February 13, 2024, 09:56:48 PM
GA HD-125 done. Safe R seat, what non-Republicans who did turn out would likely have been swayed towards one of the top two republicans given the targeted campaigns and comparatively big spending. Runoff between the two.

Gary Richardson (Rep) 1,691, 37.47%

CJ Pearson (Rep) 1,389, 30.78%
 
Jim Steed (Rep) 794, 17.59%

Kay Turner (Dem) 612, 13.56%

John Turpish (Lib) 27, 0.60%



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on February 13, 2024, 10:18:14 PM
PA HD140
60% in now

D 77.5%
R 22.5%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Atlas Force on February 13, 2024, 10:28:54 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on February 13, 2024, 10:29:19 PM

7/33 precincts added and only about 1.5K votes added to the total from the EV. Unlike NY-03, this one almost certainly was affected by snow.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on February 13, 2024, 10:30:02 PM
PA HD140
67% in

D 73%
R 27%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on February 13, 2024, 10:33:20 PM


Also in NY, the Bronx vote has stalled at 1.4k total votes with some precincts not in. Looking like a Dem underperformance - but still a overall landslide - seemingly cause of this hyperfixation by the Republican on one neighborhood block.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on February 13, 2024, 10:37:28 PM

Also in NY, the Bronx vote has stalled at 1.4k total votes with some precincts not in. Looking like a Dem underperformance - but still a overall landslide - seemingly cause of this hyperfixation by the Republican on one neighborhood block.

This takes “all politics is local” to a new level.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Economy is Getting Worse on February 13, 2024, 10:41:42 PM
The R in NY AD77 outperformed Trump by 17.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on February 13, 2024, 10:49:33 PM
PA HD140
D 70%
R 30%

80% in

We're likely looking at a D+30-35 win I think at least by the end. Would be a 20-25% overperformance over Biden (+10)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on February 13, 2024, 10:51:21 PM
PA HD140
D 70%
R 30%

80% in

We're likely looking at a D+30-35 win I think at least by the end. Would be a 20-25% overperformance over Biden (+10)

wow not even close. I heard this district was bluer down ballot but this is insane.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on February 13, 2024, 11:22:21 PM
PA wasn't even close, as noted above. With all precincts in:

Jim Prokopiak (Dem)   6,462, 67.33%   

Candace Cabanas (Rep) 3,079, 32.08%

Write-in    56, 0.58%



As far as the final special election in the Bronx, the NYS BOE has it stalled for a while at 54/63 Precincts.

Landon C. Dais 1,026, 73.60%

Norman Sobe McGill, 288, 20.66%

Others and Write Ins, 80, 5.74%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Progressive Pessimist on February 14, 2024, 12:48:40 AM
Wow. Looks like PA/OK should balance out GA lol.

So lean D Pennsylvania, tossup Oklahoma, and safe R Georgia?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MRS DONNA SHALALA on February 14, 2024, 07:30:08 AM


Also in NY, the Bronx vote has stalled at 1.4k total votes with some precincts not in. Looking like a Dem underperformance - but still a overall landslide - seemingly cause of this hyperfixation by the Republican on one neighborhood block.

For context, this is actually a single housing development, and the R candidate is the president of the residents association of this development (and also lives there).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on February 14, 2024, 10:23:21 AM


Also in NY, the Bronx vote has stalled at 1.4k total votes with some precincts not in. Looking like a Dem underperformance - but still a overall landslide - seemingly cause of this hyperfixation by the Republican on one neighborhood block.

For context, this is actually a single housing development, and the R candidate is the president of the residents association of this development (and also lives there).
They say all politics is local. Could explain the result.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 05, 2024, 08:42:01 AM
Two Specials today, both in states up for Super Tuesday.  But neither are interesting 

Maine HD122: Seat immediately adjacent to Portland by the southern Bridge. Often goes uncontested D. The special doesn't even have a Republican,  just 2 Indies and a Dem.

Massachusetts House Worcester 6: South Central MA, a very rural seat between Springfield and Worcester.  This is as close to Safe R as you get in MA, and past incumbent Peter Durant often went without Dem opponents. There isn't anyone other than the Republican on the ballot this time,  at least according to ballotpedia.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on March 06, 2024, 04:23:22 PM
I just learned of this via the Minnesota Secretary of State site looking up election results for the primary, but there is a special election in the Minnesota House for seat 27B. The special primary was held a week ago and the general is March 12.

It's a Safe R seat and was previously held by former House Speaker Kurt Daudt. What's odd is Daudt announced his resignation in January but I can't find any specific reasons why, he made no mention of taking a private sector job or even "spend more time with his family" (he's unmarried and has no children.) He just stepped down abruptly. And Daudt has been suspected of corruption in the past, he once had $50k of debt wiped out for seemingly no reason.

But again, absurdly Safe R seat regardless. If you still want to compare numbers Trump won it 70.9 to 27 for Biden, and Daudt won 73.23-26.61 in 2022. Scott Jensen won it over Walz 68.43-27.81.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on March 12, 2024, 02:00:01 PM
Three tonight. The one in Minnesota I mentioned above and two in Kentucky, House districts 24 and 26. The two Kentucky seats are also very Safe R.

Dull night with nothing interesting in the presidential primaries either.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on March 12, 2024, 05:05:55 PM
Three tonight. The one in Minnesota I mentioned above and two in Kentucky, House districts 24 and 26. The two Kentucky seats are also very Safe R.

Dull night with nothing interesting in the presidential primaries either.

The Minnesota and Kentucky elections are next week


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on March 19, 2024, 10:21:27 PM
Minnesota results:
R   Bryan Lawrence   1,752   84.52%
DFL   Brad Brown   319   15.39%
WI   WRITE-IN   2   0.10%

Turnout was less than 10% though and the DFL didn't even really bother with a campaign or GOTV (no reason to) so this is about as useful as reading entrails after eating a plate of lasagna.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on March 19, 2024, 10:35:00 PM
Minnesota results:
R   Bryan Lawrence   1,752   84.52%
DFL   Brad Brown   319   15.39%
WI   WRITE-IN   2   0.10%

Turnout was less than 10% though and the DFL didn't even really bother with a campaign or GOTV (no reason to) so this is about as useful as reading entrails after eating a plate of lasagna.
'

at least it wasn't uncontested.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on March 19, 2024, 10:46:13 PM
Minnesota results:
R Bryan Lawrence 1,752 84.52%
DFL Brad Brown 319 15.39%
WI WRITE-IN 2 0.10%

Turnout was less than 10% though and the DFL didn't even really bother with a campaign or GOTV (no reason to) so this is about as useful as reading entrails after eating a plate of lasagna.
'

at least it wasn't uncontested.
Same guy who ran in 2022.

Also in 2022 despite receiving only 26.61%, he still got almost three times as many votes (4815) as the winning Republican did this time.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on March 20, 2024, 11:22:54 AM
Kentucky results: https://criticalreport.substack.com/p/ky-state-house-districts-24-26-specials

KY-HD 24:
Courtney Gilbert (R) 62.5% 1,025
Johnny Pennington (D)  22.7% 372
Craig Astor (Independent) (Write-in) 14.9% 244

Was Trump 78.5-20.2. Biden still received more votes (4,332) than were cast in the entire special.

KY-HD 26:
...actually Republican Peyton Griffee won unopposed. He received 100% of the vote...and a total of 75 votes. LMAO.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on March 20, 2024, 01:19:59 PM
Kentucky results: https://criticalreport.substack.com/p/ky-state-house-districts-24-26-specials

KY-HD 24:
Courtney Gilbert (R) 62.5% 1,025
Johnny Pennington (D)  22.7% 372
Craig Astor (Independent) (Write-in) 14.9% 244

Was Trump 78.5-20.2. Biden still received more votes (4,332) than were cast in the entire special.

KY-HD 26:
...actually Republican Peyton Griffee won unopposed. He received 100% of the vote...and a total of 75 votes. LMAO.

I would like to have seen him get zero votes. That would have been even funnier. I hate when people run unopposed in a special or general election. I always leave it blank in that case.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on March 20, 2024, 01:37:49 PM
Kentucky results: https://criticalreport.substack.com/p/ky-state-house-districts-24-26-specials

KY-HD 24:
Courtney Gilbert (R) 62.5% 1,025
Johnny Pennington (D)  22.7% 372
Craig Astor (Independent) (Write-in) 14.9% 244

Was Trump 78.5-20.2. Biden still received more votes (4,332) than were cast in the entire special.

KY-HD 26:
...actually Republican Peyton Griffee won unopposed. He received 100% of the vote...and a total of 75 votes. LMAO.

I would like to have seen him get zero votes. That would have been even funnier. I hate when people run unopposed in a special or general election. I always leave it blank in that case.
I mean in theory at least he would've definitely voted for himself, so that means he was guaranteed one vote. Now THAT would've been hilarious.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on March 20, 2024, 04:13:32 PM
Kentucky results: https://criticalreport.substack.com/p/ky-state-house-districts-24-26-specials

KY-HD 24:
Courtney Gilbert (R) 62.5% 1,025
Johnny Pennington (D)  22.7% 372
Craig Astor (Independent) (Write-in) 14.9% 244

Was Trump 78.5-20.2. Biden still received more votes (4,332) than were cast in the entire special.

KY-HD 26:
...actually Republican Peyton Griffee won unopposed. He received 100% of the vote...and a total of 75 votes. LMAO.

I would like to have seen him get zero votes. That would have been even funnier. I hate when people run unopposed in a special or general election. I always leave it blank in that case.
I mean in theory at least he would've definitely voted for himself, so that means he was guaranteed one vote. Now THAT would've been hilarious.

He should have not even voted for himself.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: DrScholl on March 20, 2024, 05:26:14 PM
In California local races that go uncontested don't even go on the ballot.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 26, 2024, 08:01:44 PM
Anyone seen results yet from the competitive Alabama HD-10 special?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on March 26, 2024, 08:17:46 PM
56% reporting:

Marilyn Lands   DEM   1,812   
64.1%

Teddy Powell   GOP   1,014   
35.9%

The seat is vacant after Republican state rep. David Cole resigned following a guilty plea to voter fraud back in August. The 10th District lies in southwest Madison County including parts of Huntsville.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 26, 2024, 08:29:24 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on March 26, 2024, 08:43:23 PM
Trump +1 district, by the way, so the flip isn’t a huge surprise, but the margin is sure to be eye popping.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ajc0918 on March 26, 2024, 08:44:20 PM
Trump +1 district, by the way. So the flip isn’t a huge surprise, but the margin is sure to be eye popping.

IVF and abortion issues are so toxic for republicans. They want to ban IVF and outlaw contraception which doesn't sit well with most (sane) voters.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Boobs on March 26, 2024, 08:50:18 PM
Lands is doing better than Doug Jones in 2017; the only logical conclusion is that Alabama loves abortion even more than it hate pedophiles.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Secretary of State Liberal Hack on March 26, 2024, 09:08:29 PM
Apparently it's the only white majority seat the democrats hold in Alabama now.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Roll Roons on March 26, 2024, 09:20:02 PM
What's crazy is that for the most part, Dobbs actually helped Republicans in religious areas like the Deep South and Utah.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 26, 2024, 09:42:11 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Atlas Force on March 26, 2024, 10:29:46 PM


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on March 26, 2024, 10:35:58 PM
Trump +1 district, by the way. So the flip isn’t a huge surprise, but the margin is sure to be eye popping.

IVF and abortion issues are so toxic for republicans. They want to ban IVF and outlaw contraception which doesn't sit well with most (sane) voters.

Yeah, it's going to be another potent issue for the Democrats. Alabama and federal Republicans both immediately denounced the ALSC's ruling and apparently that wasn't enough.

It also doesn't help their case that the Life at Conception Act, which is a policy priority of the national GOP, explicitly bans IVF in all 50 states. Can't really blame the voters for not trusting them.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lief 🗽 on March 26, 2024, 10:40:31 PM
SOTU Bump is now manifesting down-ballot too…


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Alben Barkley on March 26, 2024, 10:55:59 PM
Don’t do that Alabama… don’t give me hope.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: ProgressiveModerate on March 26, 2024, 10:57:51 PM
Don’t do that Alabama… don’t give me hope.

It's crazy how if this overperformance held statewide in AL in 2024 Pres AL would be a swing state.

Obv for a variety of reasons this won't be the case and Trump easily wins Alabama, likely by more than 20%.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Minnesota Mike on March 26, 2024, 11:40:10 PM
Hate to be that guy but there is a lot of over reacting to an election with less than 6,000 total votes.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Indy Texas on March 26, 2024, 11:45:36 PM
Imagine you're a college educated white person in Madison County.

You work at NASA and were gunning for a promotion when Space Force was due to set up there but then Tommy Tuberville tanked that by taking a sledgehammer to military leadership over abortion.

You and your wife have been having a hard time having a kid and were saving up for IVF but now Republicans have decided you can't do that either.

I'd be Brandonpilled AF by now too.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TheElectoralBoobyPrize on March 27, 2024, 12:10:43 AM
Don’t do that Alabama… don’t give me hope.

It's crazy how if this overperformance held statewide in AL in 2024 Pres AL would be a swing state.

Obv for a variety of reasons this won't be the case and Trump easily wins Alabama, likely by more than 20%.

It might mean Madison County is in play...Trump's never been that popular here.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on March 27, 2024, 01:08:08 AM
Don’t do that Alabama… don’t give me hope.
Alabama has already given me great hope.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on March 27, 2024, 01:09:57 AM
Fun fact: prior to this literally every single district in both chambers of the Alabama legislature was held by the same party that carried it in 2020. I think the only state in the country for which that was true.

So notable for that. Although a Trump+1 district in a D-trending area makes sense.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: walleye26 on March 27, 2024, 09:05:36 AM
Madison County is probably one of the places Biden could flip in Alabama. Jones won it in 2017, it was close in 2020, and had a big trend leftward 16-20. I think Trump only won it by 8. Since then, I think some of this stuff that the Alabama Supreme Court and Senator Tuberville have done probably have turned off some people there.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Liminal Trans Girl on March 27, 2024, 07:54:19 PM


Cotton on the roadside, Cotton in the ditch...


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Schiff for Senate on March 27, 2024, 09:00:28 PM


Insane.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: TheElectoralBoobyPrize on March 27, 2024, 10:41:46 PM
Madison County is probably one of the places Biden could flip in Alabama. Jones won it in 2017, it was close in 2020, and had a big trend leftward 16-20. I think Trump only won it by 8. Since then, I think some of this stuff that the Alabama Supreme Court and Senator Tuberville have done probably have turned off some people there.

It was Haley's best county in the state by far though technically only Trump's second-worst since he got a lower percentage in a very low-population county (Wilcox) where there were a lot of votes cast for candidates who had dropped out. 

My guess is Trump still narrowly ekes out a win here.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: DrScholl on March 27, 2024, 10:43:18 PM
Hate to be that guy but there is a lot of over reacting to an election with less than 6,000 total votes.

The problem with that logic is that Democrats have traditionally been on the losing end in these sort of elections. This should have been an easy hold for Republicans, but they lost it big. And it's in exactly the type of area they cannot afford to lose in actual swing states. Once again Democrats have demonstrated that they have solved much of the turnout problems they had in the past.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Benjamin Frank 2.0 on March 28, 2024, 06:42:22 AM
One of my worst ever predictions was in 2018 when I predicted that Democrat Peter Joffrion would either defeat Republican Mo (problems) Brooks (or Mo Brooks Mo Problems) or would at least be competitive with him in the Alabama 5th Congressional district because this is the Huntsville based district.

Obviously I was totally wrong about that, but, I did have a point: the (white) people in Huntsville aren't exactly the same as the (white) people in the rest of Alabama.

What I didn't appreciate is that Huntsville just isn't a large enough part of the Congressional district to make enough of a difference.

So, I don't think Democrats should make much of winning a Huntsville based district.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on March 28, 2024, 10:38:10 AM
Trump +1 district, by the way. So the flip isn’t a huge surprise, but the margin is sure to be eye popping.

IVF and abortion issues are so toxic for republicans. They want to ban IVF and outlaw contraception which doesn't sit well with most (sane) voters.
Democrats need to turn this into Defund the Police for Republicans: banning IVF and contraception are probably even less popular.