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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections => Topic started by: Ses on March 26, 2019, 11:21:26 pm



Title: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ses on March 26, 2019, 11:21:26 pm
So, tonight was all around pretty good for Dems in this department (result in WISC, whatever it may be, notwithstanding).

Next week is much more boring - 3 primaries in Florida and an R vs R race in Georgia.

Luckily we’ll probably have Israeli election results to discuss that day.


Old thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=288367.0


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on March 26, 2019, 11:23:10 pm
It does look like it might just be a Kiley-Dahle race (although any combination involving any combination of Kiley/Dahle/Pflueger is not impossible). Hopefully Kiley wins in that case.

What makes Kiley preferable?

Kiley is a bit more moderate (not saying much), and his assembly seat opening up would lead to a possibly competitive special election.

Is HD-06 less republican than HD-01 overall?

Significantly less.

AD-06: 52-41 Trump, trending D
AD-01: 57-36 Trump, trending R


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on March 26, 2019, 11:27:49 pm
SD-1 60% in:

Steve Baird
(Party Preference: DEM)
8,606   
6.0%
Silke Pflueger
(Party Preference: DEM)
37,940   
26.5%
Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
39,726   
27.8%
Theodore Dziuba
(Party Preference: REP)
2,662   
1.9%
Rex Hime
(Party Preference: REP)
12,812   
9.0%
Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
41,206   
28.8%

If this is seriously going to be R v R, maybe the California Republican Party has finally stopped declining.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on March 26, 2019, 11:27:50 pm
It does look like it might just be a Kiley-Dahle race (although any combination involving any combination of Kiley/Dahle/Pflueger is not impossible). Hopefully Kiley wins in that case.

Ah ok then, definitely go Kiley.
What makes Kiley preferable?

Kiley is a bit more moderate (not saying much), and his assembly seat opening up would lead to a possibly competitive special election.

Is HD-06 less republican than HD-01 overall?

Significantly less.

AD-06: 52-41 Trump, trending D
AD-01: 57-36 Trump, trending R

Ah well, go Kiley then (between the two of them).

Also damn, Dalhe's ahead of Pflueger now.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on March 26, 2019, 11:28:09 pm
There seems to be a lull in returns; I'll work to add in actual vote numbers as well as updated percentages by county.

Alpine has a bit over 100 votes in. Pflueger leads there, as is expected for Alpine. Overall, it's 15-40-24% Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 24-63-38 votes Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

El Dorado is still 35-28-19 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. No update on reporting either. 11,372-8,853-6,085 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Lassen: no votes yet.

Modoc: 9-10-70 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 146-173-1,184 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Not shocking.

Nevada: 10-40-35 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 2,255-8,754-7,655 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Pflueger is from Truckee, located in Nevada County.

Placer: 41-26-16 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 13,761-8,696-5,233 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Kiley's home county. It's larger than a fair number of the counties in Dahle's district, but the senate district does not include Roseville.

Plumas claims 100% reporting. 14-25-45 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 737-1,265-2,326 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Sacramento claims nearly 100% reporting, but earlier caveats about Sac County are still in play. The portions of Sac County in this senate district are the more conservative (though somewhat trending Dem) parts of the county. 45-26-10 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 9,022-5,213-1,972 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Shasta: 16-14-53 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 2,658-2,306-8,651 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Sierra: 14-26-46 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 126-244-424 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Claims 100% reporting

Siskiyou claims about 50% reporting. 11-26-46 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 837-1,905-3,421 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Current Totals: 28.8%-26.5%-27.8% Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 41,206-37,940-39,726 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Narrow lead for Kiley and Dahle, but still very much a three-way race between them and Pflueger for the top two spots.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on March 26, 2019, 11:39:45 pm
Lassen just dumped a big load of Dahle votes. 6-12-71 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 243-460-2,789 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

The current standings overall are 28.7%-26.5%-27.9% Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 41,374-38,096-40,200 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Pflueger is about 2,000 votes down.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on March 26, 2019, 11:59:12 pm
SD-33 - 7% in:

Al Austin, II
(Party Preference: DEM)
981   
4.8%
Thomas Jefferson Cares
(Party Preference: DEM)
614   
3.0%
Denise Diaz
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,291   
6.3%
Chris Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
507   
2.5%
Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
6,208   
30.4%
Ana Maria Quintana
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,559   
7.6%
Ali Saleh
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,599   
7.8%
Josť Luis Solache
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,337   
6.5%
Leticia Vasquez Wilson
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,154   
5.6%
Martha Flores Gibson
(Party Preference: REP)
1,576   
7.7%
Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
3,303   
16.2%
Cesar Flores
(Party Preference: GRN)
309   
1.5%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on March 27, 2019, 12:25:34 am
72% in:

Steve Baird
(Party Preference: DEM)
8,770   
5.9%
Silke Pflueger
(Party Preference: DEM)
38,714   
26.1%
Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
42,312   
28.6%
Theodore Dziuba
(Party Preference: REP)
2,941   
2.0%
Rex Hime
(Party Preference: REP)
13,293   
9.0%
Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
42,037   
28.4%



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: smoltchanov on March 27, 2019, 12:28:45 am
Good for Democrats, that they have clear frontrunner in SD-33. Otherwise - race could easily go into R_R run-off... And in SD-1 Democrats must root for Kiley now...


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on March 27, 2019, 12:31:38 am
30% in:

Al Austin, II
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,023   
4.6%
Thomas Jefferson Cares
(Party Preference: DEM)
652   
2.9%
Denise Diaz
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,412   
6.3%
Chris Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
534   
2.4%
Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
6,705   
30.1%
Ana Maria Quintana
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,751   
7.9%
Ali Saleh
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,780   
8.0%
Josť Luis Solache
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,576   
7.1%
Leticia Vasquez Wilson
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,264   
5.7%
Martha Flores Gibson
(Party Preference: REP)
1,695   
7.6%
Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
3,560   
16.0%
Cesar Flores
(Party Preference: GRN)
328   
1.5%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on March 27, 2019, 12:33:45 am
In the 33rd, Dems are winning 75%-24%. In the 1st, GOP is winning 68%-32%.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on March 27, 2019, 01:00:45 am
Well, hopefully Dem votes in this district go to Kiley. Big missed opportunity if they donít.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on March 27, 2019, 01:07:50 am
85% in:

Al Austin, II
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,138   
4.2%
Thomas Jefferson Cares
(Party Preference: DEM)
700   
2.6%
Denise Diaz
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,941   
7.1%
Chris Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
622   
2.3%
Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
8,134   
29.8%
Ana Maria Quintana
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,376   
8.7%
Ali Saleh
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,489   
9.1%
Josť Luis Solache
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,999   
7.3%
Leticia Vasquez Wilson
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,439   
5.3%
Martha Flores Gibson
(Party Preference: REP)
1,920   
7.0%
Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
4,131   
15.1%
Cesar Flores
(Party Preference: GRN)
402   
1.5%



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on March 27, 2019, 01:09:53 am
85% in:

Al Austin, II
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,138   
4.2%
Thomas Jefferson Cares
(Party Preference: DEM)
700   
2.6%
Denise Diaz
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,941   
7.1%
Chris Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
622   
2.3%
Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
8,134   
29.8%
Ana Maria Quintana
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,376   
8.7%
Ali Saleh
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,489   
9.1%
Josť Luis Solache
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,999   
7.3%
Leticia Vasquez Wilson
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,439   
5.3%
Martha Flores Gibson
(Party Preference: REP)
1,920   
7.0%
Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
4,131   
15.1%
Cesar Flores
(Party Preference: GRN)
402   
1.5%



So Gonzalez is basically guaranteed this seat.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: smoltchanov on March 27, 2019, 01:09:59 am
Well, hopefully Dem votes in this district go to Kiley. Big missed opportunity if they donít.

Absolutely.... Kiley is a conservative, of course, but, at least - sane. Dahle - isn't....


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on March 27, 2019, 01:11:09 am
Well, hopefully Dem votes in this district go to Kiley. Big missed opportunity if they donít.

Absolutely.... Kiley is a conservative, of course, but, at least - sane. Dahle - isn't....

More importantly, though, is the competitiveness of the vacated House seat.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on March 27, 2019, 01:20:38 am
Not much has changed since Wulfric's last update:

Brian D. Dahle (Party Preference: REP) 42,807 28.7%

Kevin Kiley (Party Preference: REP) 42,302 28.3%


Silke Pflueger (Party Preference: DEM) 38,979 26.1%

Rex Hime (Party Preference: REP) 13,443 9.0%

Steve Baird (Party Preference: DEM) 8,815 5.9%

Theodore Dziuba (Party Preference: REP) 2,979 2.0%

Kiley and Dahle are currently in the lead, but Pflueger may still have a shot depending on late arriving ballots. I'll try to keep you folks updated once a day or so.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Holmes on March 27, 2019, 01:23:22 am
Commentary of the night goes to Wulfric who said the most Republican, white and rural senate district in California potentially going R v R means the CA GOP might have ended its decline.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on March 27, 2019, 01:35:26 am
Commentary of the night goes to Wulfric who said the most Republican, white and rural senate district in California potentially going R v R means the CA GOP might have ended its decline.

Canít be a special election without Wulfric making galaxy brain takes.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: smoltchanov on March 27, 2019, 01:38:44 am
Well, hopefully Dem votes in this district go to Kiley. Big missed opportunity if they donít.

Absolutely.... Kiley is a conservative, of course, but, at least - sane. Dahle - isn't....

More importantly, though, is the competitiveness of the vacated House seat.

That too. But most likely it will still stay Republican.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: smoltchanov on March 27, 2019, 04:00:54 am
Dahle and Kiley in run-off. Leans Kiley if Democrats will not do dumb thing......


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 27, 2019, 07:54:54 am
The thing that really makes that take Galaxy brain is the California late votes, which always lean Democrat. Congresswoman Kim can tell you how the Day of vote always matches the late vote.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on March 27, 2019, 08:29:54 am
The thing that really makes that take Galaxy brain is the California late votes, which always lean Democrat. Congresswoman Kim can tell you how the Day of vote always matches the late vote.

I am pretty sure in the Orange county commisonor race the late votes Leaned R or it went like Leaning R and only the very last leaned D.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on March 27, 2019, 09:02:21 am
It's over. Everything is in aside from late stuff, it won't be enough. R v R


Steve Baird
(Party Preference: DEM)
9,035
5.8%
Silke Pflueger
(Party Preference: DEM)
40,304
25.8%
Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
44,764
28.7%

Theodore Dziuba
(Party Preference: REP)
3,222
2.1%
Rex Hime
(Party Preference: REP)
14,223
9.1%
Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
44,519


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on March 27, 2019, 09:05:27 am
At least this one worked out

Al Austin, II
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,177
4.1%
Thomas Jefferson Cares
(Party Preference: DEM)
725
2.5%
Denise Diaz
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,999
7.0%
Chris Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
636
2.2%
Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
8,700
30.6%

Ana Maria Quintana
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,461
8.7%
Ali Saleh
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,577
9.1%
Josť Luis Solache
(Party Preference: DEM)
2,060
7.2%
Leticia Vasquez Wilson
(Party Preference: DEM)
1,479
5.2%
Martha Flores Gibson
(Party Preference: REP)
1,964
6.9%
Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
4,224
14.9%

Cesar Flores
(Party Preference: GRN)
432
1.5%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on March 27, 2019, 09:05:59 am
Next Elections are the LA runoffs on Saturday.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Politician on March 27, 2019, 09:08:52 am
Predictions are LaCombe +10 and Aucoin +10.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Holmes on March 27, 2019, 09:14:24 am
The thing that really makes that take Galaxy brain is the California late votes, which always lean Democrat. Congresswoman Kim can tell you how the Day of vote always matches the late vote.

Hard to say, since like I said, itís the most white, rural and Republican senate district in the state. Itíll probably buck expected trends.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on March 27, 2019, 11:04:01 am
The thing that really makes that take Galaxy brain is the California late votes, which always lean Democrat. Congresswoman Kim can tell you how the Day of vote always matches the late vote.

Hard to say, since like I said, itís the most white, rural and Republican senate district in the state. Itíll probably buck expected trends.

This isnít ďAvalancheĒ Ami Beraís US House district, thatís for sure. I wonít say itís over until itís over, but the Pflueger campaign should probably be looking at packing things up.

Well, hopefully Dem votes in this district go to Kiley. Big missed opportunity if they donít.

Absolutely.... Kiley is a conservative, of course, but, at least - sane. Dahle - isn't....

More importantly, though, is the competitiveness of the vacated House seat.

California Democrats struggle with winning Clinton +5 assembly seats, let alone one Trump won by double digits. This will be another snoozer.

I think it will be ďsurprisingly closeĒ to outsiders. Aka 54-46 if itís a Dem vs a Rep in the general.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on March 27, 2019, 03:15:41 pm
Maine State Rep. Dale Denno (D-45) has resigned to seek treatment for cancer. Special likely coming in June. Denno won his second term in November by 30 points and 1,700 votes (a lot in tiny Maine House districts).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Theodore on March 28, 2019, 07:59:33 am
Maine State Rep. Dale Denno (D-45) has resigned to seek treatment for cancer. Special likely coming in June. Denno won his second term in November by 30 points and 1,700 votes (a lot in tiny Maine House districts).

Very sad, I hope he gets better soon


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on March 28, 2019, 10:53:51 am
The Sacramento Bee reports that counting in CAís 1st Senate District should be done by April 4th, one week from today. Ballots are likely still coming in. (https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article228465849.html)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: smoltchanov on March 30, 2019, 01:56:57 am
Waiting with interest results in Louisiana's HD-18. Because, IMHO - this district is one of the few "atypical" districts in the whole country: district really suited and willing to go for a rather conservative (in real, not modern, where Dianne Feinstein is a "conservative", sense of this word) Democrat. Previous Democratic representative was moderate conservative (again - in real sense of these words), and such Democratic candidates are the best here. It's similar in some way to some other "backwater districts", still existing here and there. The best example for me remains Florida's Liberty county: absolutely rural, with 70+% Democratic registration, electing (IIRC) Democrats only for local offices, and, at the same time - 19,75% for HRC, 23.34% - for Bill Nelson, and 19,65% for Andrew Gillum. HD-18 has substantially more Blacks, and still went for "local liberal" Mary Landrieu (51.28%) in 2014, but -  strongly rejected HRC 2 years later..


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on March 30, 2019, 11:49:46 am
LA Runoff Results: https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/graphical/

Polls close at 9 ET. We've got 3 leg races and 2 judicial races to keep your attention.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Badger on March 30, 2019, 04:38:34 pm
Commentary of the night goes to Wulfric who said the most Republican, white and rural senate district in California potentially going R v R means the CA GOP might have ended its decline.

Yeah , that was truly facepalm Worthy even by his standards.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on March 30, 2019, 08:03:50 pm
Here were the final early voting numbers in HD-18 and HD-62:




HD-18's primary had a combined 75% Dem vote between 4 Dems, while HD-62 had the lone R get 45.5% with 30.8% going to the Indy and the remaining 23.7% going to the three Democrats.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ishan on March 30, 2019, 08:07:26 pm
I live in PA-37 and I swear, I sort of like D. Raja.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Politician on March 30, 2019, 08:15:53 pm

Looks like this is over.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on March 30, 2019, 08:39:22 pm
Judge, Court of Appeal -- 2nd Circuit, 2nd Dist., Election Section 2
9 of 122 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Jason Trevor Brown (REP)   17.69%   691
"Jeff" Thompson (REP)   82.31%   3,216
State Representative -- 17th Representative District
0 of 27 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Rodney McFarland, Sr. (DEM)   41.19%   465
"Pat" Moore (DEM)   58.81%   664
State Representative -- 18th Representative District
3 of 41 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 3 of 4 parishes
Click here for Results by Parish
Tammi G. Fabre (REP)   26.97%   558
Jeremy S. LaCombe (DEM)   73.03%   1,511
State Representative -- 62nd Representative District
9 of 64 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Roy Daryl Adams (IND)   46.42%   1,050
Dennis Aucoin (REP)   53.58%   1,212
District Judge -- 24th Judicial District Court, ES 1, Div. E
6 of 82 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Frank A. Brindisi (REP)   58.26%   878
Christy Howley (DEM)   41.74%   629


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: DINGO Joe stands on Sanchez on March 30, 2019, 09:10:58 pm
LaCombe wins with just under 70% and Roy Daryl beats Aucoin.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on March 30, 2019, 09:13:15 pm
Projected Winners in Bold:

Judge, Court of Appeal -- 2nd Circuit, 2nd Dist., Election Section 2
72 of 122 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Jason Trevor Brown (REP)   21.97%   1,655
"Jeff" Thompson (REP)   78.03%   5,877
State Representative -- 17th Representative District
All 27 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Rodney McFarland, Sr. (DEM)   36.75%   1,398
"Pat" Moore (DEM)   63.25%   2,406
State Representative -- 18th Representative District
39 of 41 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Tammi G. Fabre (REP)   32.37%   2,013
Jeremy S. LaCombe (DEM)   67.63%   4,205
State Representative -- 62nd Representative District
56 of 64 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Roy Daryl Adams (IND)   54.06%   2,614
Dennis Aucoin (REP)   45.94%   2,221
District Judge -- 24th Judicial District Court, ES 1, Div. E
51 of 82 precincts reporting
Absentee reporting - 100%
Click here for Results by Parish
Frank A. Brindisi (REP)   57.40%   2,586
Christy Howley (DEM)   42.60%   1,919


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on March 30, 2019, 09:27:11 pm
JBE has to be very happy with the state legislative results tonight.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Bagel23 on March 30, 2019, 09:56:34 pm
I hope Roy Adams caucuses with us.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on March 30, 2019, 10:17:56 pm
Wrapping Up:

 
64 of 64 precincts reporting - 100%
absentee reporting - 100%   Votes
2,925   Roy Daryl Adams (IND)  54%
2,529   Dennis Aucoin (REP)  46%
Total: 5,454
Unofficial Turnout: 17.7%
District Judge -- 24th Judicial District Court, ES 1, Div. E
 
82 of 82 precincts reporting - 100%
absentee reporting - 100%   Votes
3,625   Frank A. Brindisi (REP)  57%
2,762   Christy Howley (DEM)  43%
Total: 6,387
Unofficial Turnout: 7.1%


-------------


More elections on 4/2 - ME HD 52, PA SD 37, MS HD 101 Runoff (R v R)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln on March 30, 2019, 10:31:55 pm
TITANIUM D LOUISIANA


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on March 30, 2019, 11:29:16 pm


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Oryxslayer on March 30, 2019, 11:29:46 pm


()

Its fairly clear that the dem voters pushed the Indie over the top here. 


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: smoltchanov on March 31, 2019, 12:31:49 am


()

Its fairly clear that the dem voters pushed the Indie over the top here. 

Sure. Adams ran as typical southern populist: solid conservative on most social issues (100% pro-life, for example), but - more moderate on economy. So it was only natural for Democrats to support HIM in run-off. But- in addition to Democratic support he got supported by his Republican predecessor in this seat as well (though he was a Republican, he was, essentially, of the same type as Adams, and frequently quarreled with more "pure" members of his party).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Brittain33 on March 31, 2019, 10:55:22 am
It would surprise me if Adams chose to caucus with the Dems since they're a minority and likely to stay one.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on March 31, 2019, 11:02:16 am
I live in PA-37 and I swear, I sort of like D. Raja.

LOL I'm going to hit a big fat (X) on that one.

The guy is clinically insane.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: smoltchanov on March 31, 2019, 02:39:58 pm
It would surprise me if Adams chose to caucus with the Dems since they're a minority and likely to stay one.

Me too. He ran as more centrist candidate compared with AuCoin, but still - rather conservative. And, as i said above, support from his Republican predecessor was an important element of his campaign. Most likely he will stay Indie. Less likely - will join Republicans (though they will not be happy, that he beat their "official" candidate). Least likely - joins Democrats


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Comrade Funk on March 31, 2019, 02:43:46 pm
I live in PA-37 and I swear, I sort of like D. Raja.

LOL I'm going to hit a big fat (X) on that one.

The guy is clinically insane.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on March 31, 2019, 09:26:35 pm
Wow, completely didnít realize there were specials yesterday. Goddammit Louisiana, you just had to be ahead of the curve on weekend elections.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Bagel23 on March 31, 2019, 11:32:54 pm
I really want Iovino to beat that pos Raja.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 01, 2019, 10:30:21 pm
I really want Iovino to beat that pos Raja.

Tbf, I'd be quite shocked if she doesn't blow him out of the water.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Bagel23 on April 02, 2019, 08:03:32 am
I really want Iovino to beat that pos Raja.

Tbf, I'd be quite shocked if she doesn't blow him out of the water.

Good, keep our fingers crossed 🤞


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 06:38:33 pm
Polls close in 20 minutes here in PGH. Praying for an Iovino win!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 06:42:34 pm
So Reschenthaler's PA seat is the big contest today, right?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on April 02, 2019, 06:42:52 pm
Polls close in 20 minutes here in PGH. Praying for an Iovino win!
Me too dude, Iovino should pull it off but does she pull a decent margin?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Nyvin on April 02, 2019, 06:43:49 pm
So Reschenthaler's PA seat is the big contest today, right?

That and the WI Supreme Court


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 06:44:57 pm
So Reschenthaler's PA seat is the big contest today, right?

That and the WI Supreme Court

I meant for State Legs lol. Yeah WI SC and Chicago runoffs are also today, but don't go in this thread.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 06:46:33 pm
PA stuff is here: https://decisiondeskhq.com/election-results-wisconsin-supreme-court-chicago-mayor-pa-sd-37/

This twitter should give us results for Maine and Mississippi eventually: https://twitter.com/electionwatchus?lang=en

Polls close at the top of the hour.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 06:47:57 pm
Polls close in 20 minutes here in PGH. Praying for an Iovino win!
Me too dude, Iovino should pull it off but does she pull a decent margin?

Iíd imagine. This is the second time Raja is running for the seat, he lost the first time. Plus, he was whooped in a Wagner-2018 style for Allegheny commissioner in 2012.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 06:51:56 pm
Polls close in 20 minutes here in PGH. Praying for an Iovino win!
Me too dude, Iovino should pull it off but does she pull a decent margin?

Iíd imagine. This is the second time Raja is running for the seat, he lost the first time. Plus, he was whooped in a Wagner-2018 style for Allegheny commissioner in 2012.

Wasnít the Allegheny CE race after that? Cuz he lost the senate seat in 2012 (back when it was much more Republican in its voting habits than it is now, funny enough). He underperformed Mitt Romney of all people by like 15% lol

Something like that. Point is, Iovino should win the seat comfortably. Iím still nervous, but my worries are probably going to be for nothing.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Nyvin on April 02, 2019, 06:58:28 pm
Which of the candidates in the Chicago mayorial race is the Democrat. I expect them to win easily.

They're both Democrats, but Lightfoot is generally considered the progressive.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 07:00:03 pm
Which of the candidates in the Chicago mayorial race is the Democrat. I expect them to win easily.

Well first off, itís ďnonpartisanĒ, but both the candidates are Democrats. Second off, we have a thread for the mayoral race.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 07:01:59 pm
Polls have closed in PA SD-37.

First off: an anecdotal turnout nugget that shows very good news for Iovino:



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: #Kavanaugh For Prison on April 02, 2019, 07:08:08 pm
If Democrats win this Pennsylvania Election, and also the Wisconsin Election (they need to just win the Pennsylvania Election though they need a substantial margin in the Wisconsin Election), it will be time to call the whole 2020 Presidential Race for the Democratic nominee.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 07:08:45 pm
If Democrats win this Pennsylvania Election, and also the Wisconsin Election (they need to just win the Pennsylvania Election though they need a substantial margin in the Wisconsin Election), it will be time to call the whole 2020 Presidential Race for the Democratic nominee.

Quoting for future use, given how wrong your 2016 and 2018 predictions were.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Bevinevitable on April 02, 2019, 07:18:56 pm
If Democrats win this Pennsylvania Election, and also the Wisconsin Election (they need to just win the Pennsylvania Election though they need a substantial margin in the Wisconsin Election), it will be time to call the whole 2020 Presidential Race for the Democratic nominee.

()


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 07:25:57 pm


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 07:26:52 pm


As expected. At least we haven't started off with catastrophe.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 07:31:42 pm
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     52.3%   146
D Raja (Republican)     47.7%   133
1 of 224 (0%) Precincts Reporting, 279 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 07:34:43 pm
The first votes are coming out of Pleasant Hills, which was Trump +6, Casey +9, and Wolf + 12, so this is very good for Iovino.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on April 02, 2019, 07:36:25 pm
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     52.3%   146
D Raja (Republican)     47.7%   133
1 of 224 (0%) Precincts Reporting, 279 Total Votes

For reference, Bob Casey won this precinct by 9% in 2018. And this precinct is a bit to the right of the district.
so an underperformance, but not in loser territory.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: #Kavanaugh For Prison on April 02, 2019, 07:36:38 pm
This is a sign of a close race.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 07:36:40 pm
Looking solid so far.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 07:41:06 pm
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     54.7%   1,474
D Raja (Republican)     45.3%   1,223
12 of 224 (5%) Precincts Reporting, 2,697 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 07:42:53 pm
Where's this vote coming from?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on April 02, 2019, 07:43:08 pm


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: #Kavanaugh For Prison on April 02, 2019, 07:43:10 pm

Hardly. Casey won the seat by 12%, so if this precinct is representative (big if), that would point to a 7 or 8% Iovino win.

Anything less than 12.5% is a close race.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 07:43:36 pm
Team Raja not at all confident about tonight



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: LimoLiberal on April 02, 2019, 07:44:11 pm
I'm not sure if I like the early numbers so far... Iovino doing better than Clinton, but much worse than Lamb in some Allegheny precincts.

I'm looking at this map for reference: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 07:44:37 pm
Team Raja not at all confident about tonight



Could be trying to expectation-set. Just keep in mind.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 07:45:18 pm
Team Raja not at all confident about tonight



Could be trying to expectation-set. Just keep in mind.

Or theyíre not confident theyíre going to win.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: #Kavanaugh For Prison on April 02, 2019, 07:46:06 pm
<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>
Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: LimoLiberal on April 02, 2019, 07:46:53 pm
deleted


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on April 02, 2019, 07:47:13 pm
Team Raja not at all confident about tonight



Could be trying to expectation-set. Just keep in mind.
wouldn't they do something more public then like releasing a bad internal?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on April 02, 2019, 07:47:20 pm
<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>
Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 07:47:34 pm
Team Raja not at all confident about tonight



Could be trying to expectation-set. Just keep in mind.

Or theyíre not confident theyíre going to win.

Well, yes - if they were confident they wouldn't need to set expectations. This way they can try to frame a mid single-digit loss as an "overperformance" - doesn't necessarily mean double digit landslide is coming. (Of course it could also be their honest expectation, but no way to be sure).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 07:48:51 pm
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     57.3%   5,400
D Raja (Republican)     42.7%   4,022
41 of 224 (18%) Precincts Reporting, 9,422 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on April 02, 2019, 07:49:53 pm
<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>
Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.
To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: #Kavanaugh For Prison on April 02, 2019, 07:50:53 pm
<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>
Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.
To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.
He was referring to the special election.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 07:51:38 pm
Hmmmm.....

Quote from: Wikipedia article: D. Raja
Doraisamy Raja is a politician and the member of Rajya Sabha from Tamil Nadu. He is from the Communist Party of India(CPI) and he is the National Secretary of the Party since 1994.[1][2][3] [4]


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 07:52:25 pm
66/214

Iovino: 54.99% 8,335
Raja: 44.81% 6,791


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on April 02, 2019, 07:52:34 pm
<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>
Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.
To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.
He was referring to the special election.
How do you know this? He never specified.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 07:53:23 pm
<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>
Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.
To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.
He was referring to the special election.
How do you know this? He never specified.

Why are we spending this much time analyzing a Limo post?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 07:53:53 pm
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     55.1%   8,335
D Raja (Republican)     44.9%   6,791
66 of 224 (29%) Precincts Reporting, 15,126 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: LimoLiberal on April 02, 2019, 07:54:04 pm
<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>
Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.
To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.
He was referring to the special election.
How do you know this? He never specified.

1) Lamb had TWO 2018 "performances", the special in March and the November general, so you're confusing everybody here.
2) I'm referring to his performance in the special because that district contained a wider portion of Southern Allegheny county (thus more precincts to compare to SD-37)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 07:55:24 pm

Yeah, but Iovino doesn't need to match Lamb's special performance here lol.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 07:56:02 pm

Yeah, but Iovino doesn't need to match Lamb's special performance here lol.

Pretty much every pundit following the race on Twitter is saying Iovino is hitting her benchmarks.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on April 02, 2019, 07:56:03 pm
<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>
Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.
To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.
He was referring to the special election.
How do you know this? He never specified.

Why are we spending this much time analyzing a Limo post?
Honestly? Trying to pass the time as the results continue to come in :P.

<not going to force people who have Limo on ignore to read this post>
Lamb was running in a District Trump won by nearly 30 points. This District was just Trump + 6.

The edit is much appreciated.
To be fair, he may have been referring to Lamb's 2018 performance.
He was referring to the special election.
How do you know this? He never specified.

1) Lamb had TWO 2018 "performances", the special in March and the November general, so you're confusing everybody here.
2) I'm referring to his performance in the special because that district contained a wider portion of Southern Allegheny county (thus more precincts to compare to SD-37)
But as you very well know, this was a disproportionate swing.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 07:57:15 pm
42% in

Iovino: 54.20% 11,342
Raja: 45.63% 9,550


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 07:57:18 pm
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     54.3%   11,342
D Raja (Republican)     45.7%   9,550
90 of 224 (40%) Precincts Reporting, 20,892 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 07:57:28 pm
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     54.3%   11,342
D Raja (Republican)     45.7%   9,550
90 of 224 (40%) Precincts Reporting, 20,892 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: LimoLiberal on April 02, 2019, 07:58:52 pm
I think Iovino would need a more than 2000 vote margin out of Allegheny to feel safe. Washington county in a comparable 2015 special netted 2000 votes for Reschenthaler (R), and he won district-wide by 10.

https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/Special/CountyBreakDownResults?officeId=0&districtId=59&ElectionID=50&ElectionType=S&IsActive=0


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 07:59:48 pm
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     53.9%   14,161
D Raja (Republican)     46.1%   12,131
109 of 224 (49%) Precincts Reporting, 26,292 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 08:00:23 pm
Looking pretty solid right now.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 08:01:09 pm
Yeah, Iovino probably has this.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Horus on April 02, 2019, 08:01:29 pm
Isn't Raja sort of a Brian Fitzpatrick suburban "moderate" type? Could explain why he might improve on Trump's numbers in this sort of district, though this is Allegheny county, a place with... quirky voting patterns to say the least.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: LimoLiberal on April 02, 2019, 08:01:57 pm
Unless something goes horribly wrong, Iovino has this. Not enough votes in Washington county to make up for remaining Dem votes in Mt. Lebanon, Upper St. Clair, and Bethel Park.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 08:02:12 pm
Isn't Raja sort of a Brian Fitzpatrick suburban "moderate" type? Could explain why he might improve on Trump's numbers in this sort of district, though this is Allegheny county, a place with... quirky voting patterns to say the least.

NOOOOOOOOOO! He's more like Saccone. He ran attack ads comparing Iovino to AOC and Bernie.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on April 02, 2019, 08:03:37 pm
Unless something goes horribly wrong, Iovino has this. Not enough votes in Washington county to make up for remaining Dem votes in Mt. Lebanon, Upper St. Clair, and Bethel Park.
Woah. This is the first non-troll post I have seen in a while from limo.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 08:04:19 pm
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     53.5%   17,163
D Raja (Republican)     46.5%   14,909
133 of 224 (59%) Precincts Reporting, 32,072 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: #Kavanaugh For Prison on April 02, 2019, 08:04:29 pm
Majority of precincts reporting.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 08:04:59 pm
61% in, Iovino up 7% (2,200).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 08:08:15 pm
71% in

Virtually unchanged.

Iovino: 53.6% 20,095
Raja: 46.2% 17,329

That should be ball game.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Nyvin on April 02, 2019, 08:09:08 pm
71% in

Virtually unchanged.

Iovino: 53.6% 20,095
Raja: 46.2% 17,329

That should be ball game.

It'll probably be called any minute now.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Bagel23 on April 02, 2019, 08:09:37 pm
Still a smidge nervous, but we got this guys!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on April 02, 2019, 08:09:47 pm
Wow, Democrats have been on a tear in the Pittsburgh suburbs lately.

They have a real shot at flipping the Senate chamber next year.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 08:10:56 pm
Wow, Democrats have been on a tear in the Pittsburgh suburbs lately.

They have a real shot at flipping the Senate chamber next year.

Unless the GOP can recover here, PA will probably vote for the Democrat by a comfortable margin in 2020.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Duke of York on April 02, 2019, 08:12:15 pm
Wow, Democrats have been on a tear in the Pittsburgh suburbs lately.

They have a real shot at flipping the Senate chamber next year.

Unless the GOP can recover here, PA will probably vote for the Democrat by a comfortable margin in 2020.

That also depends on who they nominate


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 08:13:16 pm
Wow, Democrats have been on a tear in the Pittsburgh suburbs lately.

They have a real shot at flipping the Senate chamber next year.

Unless the GOP can recover here, PA will probably vote for the Democrat by a comfortable margin in 2020.

That also depends on who they nominate

Yang is probably the only one who could really screw up here.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 08:14:11 pm
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     53.7%   20,095
D Raja (Republican)     46.3%   17,329
152 of 224 (68%) Precincts Reporting, 37,424 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 08:14:39 pm
I think we have this. D+1.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Bagel23 on April 02, 2019, 08:15:11 pm

Heck yeah!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 08:17:19 pm
andidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     53.5%   22,082
D Raja (Republican)     46.5%   19,168
164 of 224 (73%) Precincts Reporting, 41,250 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 08:18:48 pm
A lot of people keep talking about the one township in Washington county that could really help Raja, but that only accounts for 8% of the votes in the entire district so IDK what's keeping them from calling it.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on April 02, 2019, 08:19:11 pm
Apparently Peters Township hasn't reported anything yet. Very conservative suburb in Washington County. I'd expect the margin to narrow some more when those results start coming in, but I'm not sure there's enough there to clinch it for Raja.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 08:20:22 pm
Apparently Peters Township hasn't reported anything yet. Very conservative suburb in Washington County. I'd expect the margin to narrow some more when those results start coming in, but I'm not sure there's enough there to clinch it for Raja.

Someone on Twitter said that Pam's Allegheny margin has to be below 1.5K for Washington to be able to clinch it for Raja, but her margin is at 3K.

EDIT: Now at 3.2K


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Nyvin on April 02, 2019, 08:21:13 pm
Washington county will narrow the race slightly, but 12 precincts aren't going to turn a 7 point margin.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on April 02, 2019, 08:21:38 pm
Washington county will narrow the race slightly, but 12 precincts aren't going to turn a 7 point margin.

My thoughts as well.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 08:22:43 pm
Pennsylvania State Senate General Election 37
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     53.6%   23,503
D Raja (Republican)     46.4%   20,376
172 of 224 (77%) Precincts Reporting, 43,879 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 08:30:16 pm
Iovino lead up to 3.9K


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 08:30:28 pm
Pennsylvania State Senate General Election 37
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     53.8%   27,484
D Raja (Republican)     46.2%   23,624
198 of 224 (88%) Precincts Reporting, 51,108 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 08:32:23 pm
Turnout could be at 30% which is pretty spectacular for a special election.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on April 02, 2019, 08:33:37 pm
Turnout could be at 30% which is pretty spectacular for a special election.

I mean its a rich suburban district. Its of course great for a SE but its not that out of line for this district. It looks Iovino will win but I wonder what the differences will be between the 2012 win and the the 2018 win.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 08:36:54 pm
WULFRIC PROJECTION:

Candidate   Percent   Votes
Pam Iovino (Democratic)     53.9%   28,663
D Raja (Republican)     46.1%   24,536
205 of 224 (92%) Precincts Reporting, 53,199 Total Votes


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 08:36:54 pm
Raja has conceded.

D+1


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Nyvin on April 02, 2019, 08:37:56 pm
Woohoo!  Nice victory for PA Dems!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 08:54:14 pm
Since apparently the last one was locked (and is basically at capacity)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 08:55:01 pm
Anyway DDHQ has finally called the race for Iovino.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 08:56:33 pm
We are still waiting for results in MS HD 101


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 08:59:33 pm
Lol @whoever merged this, you do realize Iíll have to make another one 15 posts from now?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 08:59:33 pm
Iovino's lead (if holds at current) would mean a 13-point shift from Trump in the district and would solidify the D-trend of the PGH suburbs.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Kevinstat on April 02, 2019, 09:03:03 pm
Maine House Distrct 52 (City of Bath) Special Election Results:

Sean C. Paulhus (D-Bath) 968 (66.48%)
Kenneth D. Sener (R-Bath) 488 (33.52%)

I got those numbers from a post by the losing candidate's campaign Facebook account on that campaign's Facebook page.  Apparently there are 7,029 registered voters in Bath which puts turnout (by that measure) at 20.71%.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 09:05:41 pm
Maine House Distrct 52 (City of Bath) Special Election Results:

Sean C. Paulhus (D-Bath) 968 (66.48%)
Kenneth D. Sener (R-Bath) 488 (33.52%)

I got those numbers from a post by the losing candidate's campaign Facebook account on that campaign's Facebook page.  Apparently there are 7,029 registered voters in Bath which puts turnout (by that measure) at 20.71%.

How does that compare to the districtís past voting?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Kevinstat on April 02, 2019, 09:13:36 pm
Maine House Distrct 52 (City of Bath) Special Election Results:

Sean C. Paulhus (D-Bath) 968 (66.48%)
Kenneth D. Sener (R-Bath) 488 (33.52%)

I got those numbers from a post by the losing candidate's campaign Facebook account on that campaign's Facebook page.  Apparently there are 7,029 registered voters in Bath which puts turnout (by that measure) at 20.71%.

How does that compare to the districtís past voting?

First of all, I see that the result (in terms of who won and it being a Dem hold had already been announced on this thread, but I guess I was the first to post numbers.  I've heard that Jennifer DeChant (the Democrat who vacated the seat) got over 70% in 2018.  The seat's been held by Democrats since 2002.  It was a Republican seat for a think quite a while before that (held by one Republican who served from the late 70s to 1994 and then another who served from '94 to 2002.  Both moved on to the Senate, and the second one became a Democrat like a month after beeing reeelected in 2004.  He was unseated in 2006 but another Democrat won the seat two years later.  That Senate seat had long been Republican like the House seat.

I haven't looked recently at the results for the House seat (which was missing some of Bath before the 2013 redistricting) from 2002 on, but I think it's safe to say it's a very Democatic district nowadays.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 02, 2019, 09:19:11 pm


That wraps up tonight


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on April 02, 2019, 09:19:16 pm
Lol Peters Township didn't even dent the margin.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Brittain33 on April 02, 2019, 09:20:15 pm
Lol @whoever merged this, you do realize Iíll have to make another one 15 posts from now?

I saw that you said the previous thread was locked, so I assumed I did that by mistake, unlocked, and merged.

I donít see why we canít let this thread run out the night and start a new one with the next race.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 09:21:06 pm


That wraps up tonight

What, did all the vote dump at once?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 09:24:00 pm
Lol Peters Township didn't even dent the margin.

I just have to laugh at all the "pundits" on twitter who refused to call the race for Pam, even when she was 3.9K votes ahead, because they thought the one township from Washington could actually make up the difference ::)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 09:27:39 pm
Lol Peters Township didn't even dent the margin.

I just have to laugh at all the "pundits" on twitter who refused to call the race for Pam, even when she was 3.9K votes ahead, because they thought the one township from Washington could actually make up the difference ::)

Wait they were waiting on literally one township? Lmao.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 09:31:53 pm
Lol Peters Township didn't even dent the margin.

I just have to laugh at all the "pundits" on twitter who refused to call the race for Pam, even when she was 3.9K votes ahead, because they thought the one township from Washington could actually make up the difference ::)

Wait they were waiting on literally one township? Lmao.

Yeah... I mean, they were being careful, but Raja had to win like 98% of the vote in that township to beat Iovino by a vote...


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Kevinstat on April 02, 2019, 09:34:16 pm
Maine House Distrct 52 (City of Bath) Special Election Results:

Sean C. Paulhus (D-Bath) 968 (66.48%)
Kenneth D. Sener (R-Bath) 488 (33.52%)

I got those numbers from a post by the losing candidate's campaign Facebook account on that campaign's Facebook page.  Apparently there are 7,029 registered voters in Bath which puts turnout (by that measure) at 20.71%.

How does that compare to the districtís past voting?

Okay, here are the results from 2014 on (since the district grew to become all of Bath):

2014: DeChant (D-inc) 2,435 (65.95%), Daniels (R) 1,257 (34.05%)
2016: DeChant (D-inc) 3,021 (64.45%), Weidner (R) 1,666 (35.55%)
2018: DeChant (D-inc) 2,959 (71.61%), Weidner (R) (same guy) 1,173 (28.39%)
2019 (unofficial): Paulhus (D) 968 (66.48%), Sener (R) 488 (33.52%)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 09:34:48 pm
Lol @whoever merged this, you do realize Iíll have to make another one 15 posts from now?

I saw that you said the previous thread was locked, so I assumed I did that by mistake, unlocked, and merged.

I donít see why we canít let this thread run out the night and start a new one with the next race.

Well, tonightís results are done now. Iím going to go ahead and start the new thread; feel free to continue discussions on todayís races here.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Brittain33 on April 02, 2019, 09:39:30 pm
Lol @whoever merged this, you do realize Iíll have to make another one 15 posts from now?

I saw that you said the previous thread was locked, so I assumed I did that by mistake, unlocked, and merged.

I donít see why we canít let this thread run out the night and start a new one with the next race.

Well, tonightís results are done now. Iím going to go ahead and start the new thread; feel free to continue discussions on todayís races here.

Sounds good, Iíll do the stickying later this week.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Kevinstat on April 02, 2019, 09:41:22 pm
Maine House Distrct 52 (City of Bath) Special Election Results:

Sean C. Paulhus (D-Bath) 968 (66.48%)
Kenneth D. Sener (R-Bath) 488 (33.52%)

I got those numbers from a post by the losing candidate's campaign Facebook account on that campaign's Facebook page.  Apparently there are 7,029 registered voters in Bath which puts turnout (by that measure) at 20.71%.

How does that compare to the districtís past voting?

Okay, here are the results from 2014 on (since the district grew to become all of Bath):

2014: DeChant (D-inc) 2,435 (65.95%), Daniels (R) 1,257 (34.05%)
2016: DeChant (D-inc) 3,021 (64.45%), Weidner (R) 1,666 (35.55%)
2018: DeChant (D-inc) 2,959 (71.61%), Weidner (R) (same guy) 1,173 (28.39%)
2019 (unofficial): Paulhus (D) 968 (66.48%), Sener (R) 488 (33.52%)

Okay, I guess there was some category of votes (there had to have been more than 10 absentee votes) amounting to 10 votes not counted.  The results are now:

Sean C. Paulhus (D-Bath) 975 (66.51%)
Kenneth D. Sener (R-Bath) 491 (33.49%)


Title: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 09:44:44 pm
So, tonight was all around pretty good for Dems in this department (result in WISC, whatever it may be, notwithstanding).

Next week is much more boring - 3 primaries in Florida and an R vs R race in Georgia.

Luckily weíll probably have Israeli election results to discuss that day.



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Ses on April 02, 2019, 09:45:34 pm
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=317244.0


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 02, 2019, 09:53:04 pm
The Democrats just flipped the Green Bay Mayorship... or is that being discussed in another thread?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: The Denver Poster on April 02, 2019, 10:56:37 pm
I'm assuming PA 37 stuff goes in here?



Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on April 03, 2019, 05:41:01 am
PA 37 is good news, though was hoping Iovino's margin would be higher than +4%. But probably too much to expect it to be close to Wolf (+16%) or Casey (+12%), but hey it's still way above Trump's margin, so that's good. While other states have faltered in special elections for Ds this year, PA has been a bright spot. Still resisting Trump.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 03, 2019, 02:54:34 pm
Schedule:

4/9: Florida HD 7 R primary, HD 38 R Primary, Georgia HD 28 (R v R)
4/16: Connecticut HD 19
4/23: South Carolina HD 14, Tennessee SD 22
4/30: Wisconsin AD 64
5/7: Connecticut HD 130
5/21: Pennsylvania SD 33, SD 41, HD 11


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Badger on April 03, 2019, 09:35:59 pm
If Democrats win this Pennsylvania Election, and also the Wisconsin Election (they need to just win the Pennsylvania Election though they need a substantial margin in the Wisconsin Election), it will be time to call the whole 2020 Presidential Race for the Democratic nominee.

Quoting for future use, given how wrong your 2016 and 2018 predictions were.

People in glass houses.....


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Badger on April 03, 2019, 09:38:10 pm
I'm not sure if I like the early numbers so far... Iovino doing better than Clinton, but much worse than Lamb in some Allegheny precincts.

I'm looking at this map for reference: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html

(Points and laughs at the Republican hack pretending to be a Democrat...poorly)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on April 07, 2019, 12:29:35 pm
Final results from CAís 1st Senate District {Primary: March 26th}: (https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/upcoming-elections/2019-sd1/final-official-election-results-senate-district-1/)

Brian Dahle (R) 57,725
Kevin Kiley (R) 54,290

Silke Pflueger (D) 49,164
Rex Hime (R) 18,050
Steve Baird (D) 10,855
Theodore Dzuiba (R) 4,672

The two assemblymen (Dahle and Kiley) will face off on June 4th.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on April 08, 2019, 10:51:24 am
Final results from CAís 1st Senate District {Primary: March 26th}: (https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/upcoming-elections/2019-sd1/final-official-election-results-senate-district-1/)

Brian Dahle (R) 57,725
Kevin Kiley (R) 54,290

Silke Pflueger (D) 49,164
Rex Hime (R) 18,050
Steve Baird (D) 10,855
Theodore Dzuiba (R) 4,672

The two assemblymen (Dahle and Kiley) will face off on June 4th.

As i said earlier - Lean Killey if Democrats are smart and will choose "slightly better" Republican candidate in run-off, Lean Dahle if they are dumb and will stay home "en masse"...


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on April 08, 2019, 11:47:36 am
Final results from CAís 1st Senate District {Primary: March 26th}: (https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/upcoming-elections/2019-sd1/final-official-election-results-senate-district-1/)

Brian Dahle (R) 57,725
Kevin Kiley (R) 54,290

Silke Pflueger (D) 49,164
Rex Hime (R) 18,050
Steve Baird (D) 10,855
Theodore Dzuiba (R) 4,672

The two assemblymen (Dahle and Kiley) will face off on June 4th.

As i said earlier - Lean Killey if Democrats are smart and will choose "slightly better" Republican candidate in run-off, Lean Dahle if they are dumb and will stay home "en masse"...

Yeah, my parents and I (2 Dems and a RINO whoís about to go No Party Pref) are going to vote for Kiley. Iíd rather have our assemblyman than someone elseís as my senator. Plus Iíll get another special election.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on April 08, 2019, 12:21:54 pm
The special for NJ SD-01 isnít til November but appointed Democratic incumbent Bob Andrzejczak is fighting to hold a Trump +9 seat that also went for Kim Guadagno and Bob Hugin, the latter by a landslide. I think he should be able to overcome that given his own impressive electoral performance when he was one of the districtís assemblymen. Heís a Bronze Star disables veteran so that probably has helped him significantly over perform the districtís lean in the past. Heís most likely being groomed by the Norcross machine to run for NJ-02 at some point after Van Drew retires or is defeated.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/gop-maintains-registration-edge-in-ld-1/amp/

Its a slightly republican district but for some reason D's have recently held this district at the state level for the past decade. It is Obama trump. Funfact about NJ. The state senate leader for both majority and minority along with the minority state house leaders represent obama Trump district for majority senate leader and Romney Clinton for the minority leaders.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 09, 2019, 02:58:37 pm
Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/95134/Web02-state.226435/#/


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on April 09, 2019, 03:01:43 pm
Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 09, 2019, 06:01:11 pm
Polls are closed


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: #Kavanaugh For Prison on April 09, 2019, 06:27:12 pm
Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on April 09, 2019, 06:29:33 pm
Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: #Kavanaugh For Prison on April 09, 2019, 06:32:49 pm
Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.

Why was Erwin not seated after winning by 67 votes?

Also, why was the 2 vote win nullified?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on April 09, 2019, 06:34:16 pm
Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.

Why was Erwin not seated after winning by 67 votes?

The 67 vote win was nullified because there were a lot of voters who were given an HD-28 ballot even though they didn't live in the seat.

The 2 vote win was nullified because 4 voters were found to have been ineligible by a court.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: #Kavanaugh For Prison on April 09, 2019, 06:48:03 pm
Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.

Why was Erwin not seated after winning by 67 votes?

The 67 vote win was nullified because there were a lot of voters who were given an HD-28 ballot even though they didn't live in the seat.

The 2 vote win was nullified because 4 voters were found to have been ineligible by a court.

Did those 4 voters split exactly 3-1 for Erwin?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on April 09, 2019, 06:54:47 pm
Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.

Why was Erwin not seated after winning by 67 votes?

The 67 vote win was nullified because there were a lot of voters who were given an HD-28 ballot even though they didn't live in the seat.

The 2 vote win was nullified because 4 voters were found to have been ineligible by a court.

Did those 4 voters split exactly 3-1 for Erwin?

There's zero way to know that because of secret ballot, but it's not unreasonable to believe the outcome could have changed off those ineligible voters so they nullified it.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 09, 2019, 06:54:53 pm
Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.

Why was Erwin not seated after winning by 67 votes?

The 67 vote win was nullified because there were a lot of voters who were given an HD-28 ballot even though they didn't live in the seat.

The 2 vote win was nullified because 4 voters were found to have been ineligible by a court.

Did those 4 voters split exactly 3-1 for Erwin?

No way of knowing. The state only has a record that they voted, and did so illegally. The identity of who cast which ballot is secret.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MaxQue on April 09, 2019, 06:55:49 pm
Polls close at 7 ET tonight.

Florida Primaries: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/ElectionResults/?Election=04/09/2019
Georgia HD 28 (R v R): Page not up yet

I so want HD 28 to end in a tie, since this is the *third* election for this race.

How is it the third?

The first attempt was the May 22nd primary (which Erwin "won" by 67 votes), and the second attempt was the December 4th special election (Erwin "won" by 2 votes).

If you're wondering why there was no November election, it's because no Democrats filed in the May 22nd primary.

Why was Erwin not seated after winning by 67 votes?

The 67 vote win was nullified because there were a lot of voters who were given an HD-28 ballot even though they didn't live in the seat.

The 2 vote win was nullified because 4 voters were found to have been ineligible by a court.

Did those 4 voters split exactly 3-1 for Erwin?

It is not known how these voted, so the election has been cancelled because the winner was uncertain.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 09, 2019, 06:56:27 pm
First Precinct:

CHRIS ERWIN (REP)82.59%1,774
REP REP   DAN GASAWAY (I) (REP)17.41%374
2,148




Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 09, 2019, 07:02:47 pm
3/17 in:

CHRIS ERWIN (REP)81.82%1,917
REP REP   DAN GASAWAY (I) (REP)18.18%426
2,343


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 09, 2019, 07:04:32 pm
Florida so far:

Republican
Contest Results by County
Compare State to County
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Lynda Bell   
REP   1,603   
19.4%
Virginia Fuller   
REP   367   
4.44%
Jason Shoaf   
REP   4,043   
48.93%
Mike Watkins   
REP   2,249   
27.22%
Total    8,262

   
State Representative, District 38
Republican
Contest Results by County
Compare State to County
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Randy Maggard   
REP   4,461   
61.77%
David "Mac" McCallister   
REP   2,761   
38.23%
Total    7,222   


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 09, 2019, 07:20:33 pm
15/17 in:

CHRIS ERWIN (REP)77.31%4,106
REP REP   DAN GASAWAY (I) (REP)22.69%1,205
5,311


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 09, 2019, 07:21:38 pm
Florida so far:

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Lynda Bell   
REP   1,812   
19.61%
Virginia Fuller   
REP   406   
4.39%
Jason Shoaf   
REP   4,553   
49.28%
Mike Watkins   
REP   2,468   
26.71%
Total    9,239   

State Representative, District 38
Republican
Contest Results by County
Compare State to County
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Randy Maggard   
REP   4,520   
61.88%
David "Mac" McCallister   
REP   2,784   
38.12%
Total    7,304   


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 09, 2019, 07:46:21 pm
Final:

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Lynda Bell   
REP   1,876   
19.53%
Virginia Fuller   
REP   408   
4.25%
Jason Shoaf   
REP   4,705   
48.97%

Mike Watkins   
REP   2,618   
27.25%
Total    9,607   

State Representative, District 38
Republican
Contest Results by County
Compare State to County
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Randy Maggard   
REP   4,520   
61.88%

David "Mac" McCallister   
REP   2,784   
38.12%
Total    7,304   


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 09, 2019, 08:25:36 pm
Final:

CHRIS ERWIN (REP)75.48%4,586
REP REP   DAN GASAWAY (I) (REP)24.52%1,490
6,076

Next week we'll have a special for CT HD 19.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on April 10, 2019, 04:02:15 am
Well, Florida's HD-7 is one more of "atypical dystricts". It's frequently called "the last Dixie district in Florida" (and one of the last - in the whole nation: very rural, mostly white, Democratic (but conservative) on very local level (especially in such counties as Liberty, where all local offices are held by Democrats, IIRC...), but - very Republican higher up (less, then 30% HRC in 2016), and so on). The last Democrats elected from district predecessor (Robert Trammell until 1994, and Jamie Westbrook (who ran later as Democrat, Republican and Indie) in 1996) were at least moderate conservatives (in real, not modern, sense of these words)..... Liberals or even moderates have no chances in this district now, and Democrats have no "real conservatives" in legislature since at least 1998-2000, so - it will surely stay Republican in general election...


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Politician on April 16, 2019, 07:40:13 pm
Democrats HOLD CT House District 19: https://ctmirror.org/2019/04/16/democrats-tammy-exum-wins-special-house-election/


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 17, 2019, 05:37:44 am
Democrats HOLD CT House District 19: https://ctmirror.org/2019/04/16/democrats-tammy-exum-wins-special-house-election/

21% turnout!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
Post by: Kevinstat on April 17, 2019, 05:06:25 pm
Maine State Rep. Dale Denno (D-45) has resigned to seek treatment for cancer. Special likely coming in June. Denno won his second term in November by 30 points and 1,700 votes (a lot in tiny Maine House districts).

Very sad, I hope he gets better soon
Unfortunately, he passed away (https://www.pressherald.com/2019/04/17/former-cumberland-lawmaker-dies-after-resignation-in-march/) yesterday.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Politician on April 23, 2019, 07:02:59 pm
Woah, Democrat leads in deep-red SC-LD-14: http://wlbg.com/2019/04/23/sc-house-district-14-election-results/?62227


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mr.Phips on April 23, 2019, 07:25:52 pm
Woah, Democrat leads in deep-red SC-LD-14: http://wlbg.com/2019/04/23/sc-house-district-14-election-results/?62227

For like a second.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on April 23, 2019, 07:36:49 pm
Ended up being 56-43 GOP in HD-14, which is quite a solid over-performance for a Trump +37 seat.

TN SD-22 ended up being very similar to Presidential margins. Trump won it 58-36, and the Republicans held it 59-39.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ebsy on April 23, 2019, 10:02:10 pm
The Tennessee seat ended up being much closer than initial counts suggested, giving a big swing towards the Democrat:

()

Democrats getting 44% in both of these districts is a very good performance to say the least.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ebsy on April 23, 2019, 10:21:17 pm
There are going to be two special elections for vacant Missouri House seats in November, 99 and 158, both Republican held.

99 is an interesting seat, stretching from one of the wealthiest areas of Missouri/St. Louis County, Manchester and Twin Oaks, down through more middle class Valley Park, which straddles the border with Jefferson County. The incumbent, Jean Evans, only won by 6 points last year and I would bet that Claire McCaskill carried the seat handily, while Trump won it only 49/44 against Romney's 55/43 victory. I imagine that Democrats are going to contest this seat heavily in their search for a way out of the super minority in the House. This seat covers terrain that has been moving towards the Democrats rapidly and is definitely one to watch.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Jacob Wohl on April 24, 2019, 04:29:51 pm
Ended up being 56-43 GOP in HD-14, which is quite a solid over-performance for a Trump +37 seat.

TN SD-22 ended up being very similar to Presidential margins. Trump won it 58-36, and the Republicans held it 59-39.

#RepublicansInDisarray


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on April 30, 2019, 12:11:46 pm
Tonight we have an election for WI State Assembly District 64. Polls close at 9 PM.

NC-3 coverage is at: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=307977.0


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Politician on April 30, 2019, 02:31:43 pm
Tonight we have an election for WI State Assembly District 64. Polls close at 9 PM.

NC-3 coverage is at: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=307977.0
In Kenosha county, it's Clinton +10, Obama +18. Likely hold.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Drew on April 30, 2019, 06:56:45 pm
WI AD-64 results:

Kenosha County (vast majority of the district): http://www.co.kenosha.wi.us/1405/Current-Election-Results

Racine County: https://racinecounty.com/government/county-clerk/election-information/election-results

Polls close 8 CDT


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Politician on April 30, 2019, 08:08:01 pm
12/56 in:

Tip McGuire (D): 426
Mark Stalker (R): 301


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Politician on April 30, 2019, 08:10:57 pm
41/56 in:

Tip McGuire (D): 1923
Mark Stalker (R): 1136

Calling this for McGuire.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: DINGO Joe stands on Sanchez on April 30, 2019, 08:12:41 pm
Stalker is a horrible name


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: PA is Lean D on April 30, 2019, 08:47:06 pm

https://ballotpedia.org/Russell_C._Fagg (https://ballotpedia.org/Russell_C._Fagg)

WI AD-64 was a 15-point improvement for the Ds from 2016.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Arch on April 30, 2019, 11:40:26 pm
Final Results for WI AD-64:

McGuire (D): 4,424 (62%)
Stalker (R): 2,677 (38%)

D+24


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: DINGO Joe stands on Sanchez on May 01, 2019, 12:08:17 am

https://ballotpedia.org/Russell_C._Fagg (https://ballotpedia.org/Russell_C._Fagg)

WI AD-64 was a 15-point improvement for the Ds from 2016.

Rather be a cigarette than a stalker.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Gass3268 on May 01, 2019, 09:17:13 am
WI AD-64 is clearly a Dempack but I always like to see over performances from 2012.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on May 05, 2019, 12:10:51 am
https://www.twincities.com/2019/05/04/mn-republican-representative-matt-grossell-arrested-saturday-in-st-paul-for-trespassing/

Minnesota Representative arrested for trespassing. D's did hold this district until 2014 but its gone. Its +30 Trump and the black Kenyan muslim did better than Klobuchar in 2018 in this district(He only lost it by 2 vs 3 points for Klobuchar.)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Bagel23 on May 05, 2019, 01:45:02 am
I know you are kidding, but just for any gullible people out there that could be reading this, for the millionth time, Obama is not a muslim.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Jacob Wohl on May 05, 2019, 05:30:54 pm
I know you are kidding, but just for any gullible people out there that could be reading this, for the millionth time, Obama is not a muslim.

Obama and Hillary both are both more Christian than Trumpolini.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on May 07, 2019, 02:52:04 pm
Tonight: CT HD 130

Polls close at 8 ET


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on May 07, 2019, 03:25:32 pm

It probably wonít even be close. The district contains downtown Bridgeport


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on May 08, 2019, 01:32:34 am
Democratic Hold:

A special election for District 130 of the Connecticut House of Representatives was held on May 7. Unofficial results showed 23-year-old Antonio Felipe (D) winning with 47.2% of the vote. Felipe will be the youngest member in the state House. The second place finisher, Kate Rivera, earned 34.8% of the vote and was the first petition candidate running for the Connecticut General Assembly to qualify for full public campaign financing.
 


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on May 09, 2019, 01:06:33 pm
Just got my ballot in the mail for the runoff for Californiaís First Senate District. The election is on June 4th. Havenít opened my ballot yet, but I know that itís between two Republicans. Iím going to vote for Kevin Kiley because heís my local assemblyman (donít want a senator from Lassen County) and I want another special election or two. Kileyís assembly district has a slight chance (read 0.1%) of flipping, while Brian Dahle's (Kileyís opponent) district wonít flip.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on May 19, 2019, 09:02:48 pm
Schedule:

5/21: PA SD 33 & 41, HD 11
6/4: CA SD 1 & 33; NJ SD 1
6/11: AL HD 11
6/18: FL HD 7, 38, 97


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on May 21, 2019, 11:00:16 am
Schedule:

5/21: PA SD 33 & 41, HD 11
6/4: CA SD 1 & 33; NJ SD 1
6/11: AL HD 11
6/18: FL HD 7, 38, 97


I'm fairly confident all the PA stuff today is safe Republican.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Politician on May 21, 2019, 12:03:38 pm
Schedule:

5/21: PA SD 33 & 41, HD 11
6/4: CA SD 1 & 33; NJ SD 1
6/11: AL HD 11
6/18: FL HD 7, 38, 97


I'm fairly confident all the PA stuff today is safe Republican.
Yep. All gave at least 60% to Trump and ROMNEY!


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 04:03:49 pm
Results Pages:

SD 33 - https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/Special/OfficeResults?ElectionID=73&ElectionType=S&IsActive=1
SD 41 - https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/Special/OfficeResults?ElectionID=74&ElectionType=S&IsActive=1
HD 11 - https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/Special/OfficeResults?ElectionID=76&ElectionType=S&IsActive=1

all polls close at 8 ET


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 08:07:40 pm
9% in:

41st Senatorial District County Breakdown
BOSER, SUSAN
(DEM)
33.73%
    Votes: 533
PITTMAN, JOE
(REP)
66.27%
    Votes: 1,047


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 08:31:50 pm
First numbers out of HD 11

11th Legislative District County Breakdown
DOCTOR, SAMUEL JOSEPH
(DEM)
43.85%
    Votes: 1,445
MUSTELLO, MARCI
(REP)
56.15%
    Votes: 1,850


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 08:36:34 pm
1% in:

33rd Senatorial District County Breakdown
HAMMOND, SARAH E
(DEM)
26.32%
    Votes: 533
MASTRIANO, DOUG
(REP)
73.68%
    Votes: 1,492


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 08:41:58 pm
WULFRIC PROJECTION:

33% in
41st Senatorial District County Breakdown
BOSER, SUSAN
(DEM)
28.37%
    Votes: 2,773
PITTMAN, JOE
(REP)
71.63%
    Votes: 7,001


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on May 21, 2019, 10:54:02 pm
33rd Senatorial District County Breakdown
HAMMOND, SARAH E
(DEM)
30.47%
    Votes: 3,445
MASTRIANO, DOUG
(REP)
69.53%
    Votes: 7,863


BOSER, SUSAN
(DEM)
34.4%
    Votes: 12,708
PITTMAN, JOE
(REP)
65.6%
    Votes: 24,236


11th Legislative District County Breakdown
DOCTOR, SAMUEL JOSEPH
(DEM)
42.61%
    Votes: 4,312
MUSTELLO, MARCI
(REP)
57.39%
    Votes: 5,808


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on May 22, 2019, 12:52:10 am
The 11th district loss was very impressive for democrats. Heard the Democrats ran some iron worker.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on May 22, 2019, 01:36:37 am
The 11th district loss was very impressive for democrats. Heard the Democrats ran some iron worker.

Agree. The only "bright spot" for Democrats in yesterday's elections..


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Bagel23 on May 22, 2019, 02:00:12 pm
The 11th district loss was very impressive for democrats. Heard the Democrats ran some iron worker.

Agree. The only "bright spot" for Democrats in yesterday's elections..

Tbf, these are wealthier suburbs and exurbs getting bluer.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: DINGO Joe stands on Sanchez on May 22, 2019, 10:31:52 pm
33rd Senatorial District County Breakdown
HAMMOND, SARAH E
(DEM)
30.47%
    Votes: 3,445
MASTRIANO, DOUG
(REP)
69.53%
    Votes: 7,863


BOSER, SUSAN
(DEM)
34.4%
    Votes: 12,708
PITTMAN, JOE
(REP)
65.6%
    Votes: 24,236


11th Legislative District County Breakdown
DOCTOR, SAMUEL JOSEPH
(DEM)
42.61%
    Votes: 4,312
MUSTELLO, MARCI
(REP)
57.39%
    Votes: 5,808


That turnout in SD 33 seems wildly different from the other two.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Brittain33 on May 24, 2019, 10:14:17 am
That turnout in SD 33 seems wildly different from the other two.

It does. Were the Allegheny local and county primary elections a big draw?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Seattle on May 24, 2019, 04:24:34 pm
LD-1 State Senator Guy Palumbo (D) has resigned effective 5/24 to take a job at Amazon.
This will trigger a November special, I believe. Should be Safe D.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on May 25, 2019, 12:59:04 am
LD-1 State Senator Guy Palumbo (D) has resigned effective 5/24 to take a job at Amazon.
This will trigger a November special, I believe. Should be Safe D.

Amazon, probably, pays more....


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: PA is Lean D on May 25, 2019, 12:15:29 pm
That turnout in SD 33 seems wildly different from the other two.

It does. Were the Allegheny local and county primary elections a big draw?

There were competitive DA and council primaries that fueled turnout.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on May 28, 2019, 08:59:52 pm
Went up to Shingle Springs looking at cars yesterday. There were a fair number of Kiley and Dahle signs dotting the highway. A lot more Kiley signs in Folsom though. I got three mailers from Dahle and groups campaigning for him. Iím voting Kiley since itís more likely he could be raplced by a Dem than Dahle could. Still have to fill out my ballot though.

One week to go until the election in CA Sen-1.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on June 04, 2019, 11:32:57 am
Went up to Shingle Springs looking at cars yesterday. There were a fair number of Kiley and Dahle signs dotting the highway. A lot more Kiley signs in Folsom though. I got three mailers from Dahle and groups campaigning for him. Iím voting Kiley since itís more likely he could be raplced by a Dem than Dahle could. Still have to fill out my ballot though.

One week to go until the election in CA Sen-1.

CA Senate Districts 1 and 33 have their special elections today.

There will be a special assembly election no matter the result of SD 1. Either the northern rural counties (Assembly District 1 - Brian Dahle) or Sacramento suburbs (Assembly District 6 - Kevin Kiley) will have a special election in the coming months. Both Dahle and Kiley are Republicans; Ted Gaines (whose resignation triggered this election) is a Republican as well.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on June 04, 2019, 12:26:21 pm
Went up to Shingle Springs looking at cars yesterday. There were a fair number of Kiley and Dahle signs dotting the highway. A lot more Kiley signs in Folsom though. I got three mailers from Dahle and groups campaigning for him. Iím voting Kiley since itís more likely he could be raplced by a Dem than Dahle could. Still have to fill out my ballot though.

One week to go until the election in CA Sen-1.

CA Senate Districts 1 and 33 have their special elections today.

There will be a special assembly election no matter the result of SD 1. Either the northern rural counties (Assembly District 1 - Brian Dahle) or Sacramento suburbs (Assembly District 6 - Kevin Kiley) will have a special election in the coming months. Both Dahle and Kiley are Republicans; Ted Gaines (whose resignation triggered this election) is a Republican as well.

Given the district - not surprising. Rooting for Kiley. But - one question: until not so long ago this territory used to elect Democrats not infrequently. What happened? Were these Democrats rather conservative or what?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ebsy on June 04, 2019, 02:46:42 pm
The MO HD 99 is heating up for November. Both the Dems and GOP have recruited serious candidates and I got a call from the Dem group today asking me to canvass. Presumably the Republicans are mobilizing as well. Both candidates appear to be upper middle class professional wine moms which is pretty hilarious.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on June 04, 2019, 03:18:42 pm
Went up to Shingle Springs looking at cars yesterday. There were a fair number of Kiley and Dahle signs dotting the highway. A lot more Kiley signs in Folsom though. I got three mailers from Dahle and groups campaigning for him. Iím voting Kiley since itís more likely he could be raplced by a Dem than Dahle could. Still have to fill out my ballot though.

One week to go until the election in CA Sen-1.

CA Senate Districts 1 and 33 have their special elections today.

There will be a special assembly election no matter the result of SD 1. Either the northern rural counties (Assembly District 1 - Brian Dahle) or Sacramento suburbs (Assembly District 6 - Kevin Kiley) will have a special election in the coming months. Both Dahle and Kiley are Republicans; Ted Gaines (whose resignation triggered this election) is a Republican as well.

Given the district - not surprising. Rooting for Kiley. But - one question: until not so long ago this territory used to elect Democrats not infrequently. What happened? Were these Democrats rather conservative or what?

Iím not an expert, but I think that there was a lot of logging going on in places like Lassen and Plumas Counties. They were some of the best counties for the CA Dems back maybe 40-50 years ago like you mentioned.

Polls in California close at 8 PM local time, 11 PM Eastern. (6 hours and 40 or so minutes)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on June 04, 2019, 07:05:04 pm
District 1: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/special/state-senate/district/1
District 33: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/special/state-senate/district/33

There's also a race for NJ Senate District 1, not seeing a results page for that though.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Mr. Matt on June 04, 2019, 07:15:24 pm
The NJ Senate race is only the primary (both D & R unopposed). Special elections outside of November haven't been done for legislative races since the late 1980s, the party appointee serves until/continue to serve that election.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: #Kavanaugh For Prison on June 04, 2019, 07:36:45 pm
The NJ Senate race is only the primary (both D & R unopposed). Special elections outside of November haven't been done for legislative races since the late 1980s, the party appointee serves until/continue to serve that election.

What a waste then. Unopposed special state legislative election primaries are fully pointless to run and almost invariably going to result in extremely low turnout.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on June 04, 2019, 10:17:50 pm
Placer came in big for Kiley. I'm guessing these were absentees that were mailed in early.

17,576 61.4% Kiley
11,028 38.6% Dahle


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on June 04, 2019, 10:20:21 pm
Sacramento came in big for Kiley as well.

11,918 71.4% Kiley
4,766 28.6% Dahle

Modoc in big for Dahle

1,317 84.5% Dahle
204 13.1% Kiley

Totals:
29,698 63.4% Kiley
17,111 36.6% Dahle

Edit: El Dorado decently for Kiley, maybe not as much as I would've guessed.

14,720 55.1% Kiley
11,975 44.9% Dahle

Total

45,566 60.2% Kiley
30,151 39.8% Dahle

Again, results are still early. If it's a close race by the end of the night, we might not know for a week or so. Ballots have until Friday to arrive at their respective county offices if they were postmarked by today.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on June 04, 2019, 10:24:21 pm
Plumas went big for Dahle as could be expected.

1,435 68.7% Dahle
655 31.3% Kiley


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on June 04, 2019, 10:30:53 pm
Nevada big for Dahle

10,040 67.1% Dahle
4,924 32.9% Kiley

Total

68,099 57.4% Kiley
50,575 42.6% Dahle

Siskyou also big for Dahle

3,942 68.4% Dahle
1,821 31.6% Kiley

Totals
54,080 53.2% Kiley
47,536 46.8% Dahle


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on June 04, 2019, 10:36:57 pm
Oh Jesus Shasta

14,282 80% Dahle
3,572 20% Kiley


Dahle is now in the lead
Totals:
61,818 51.7% Dahle
57,652 48.3% Kiley

Sierra went for Dahle
533 67% Dahle
263 33% Kiley


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on June 04, 2019, 10:43:05 pm
SD 33, entirely within LA County (to replace Ricardo Lara)

5.2% Reporting
18,684 69.2% Gonzalez (D)
8,304 30.8% Guerrero (R)

My posts will be back to SD 1


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on June 04, 2019, 10:45:15 pm
Lassen also went big for Dahle. It's his home county.

2,686 80.9% Dahle
636 19.1% Kiley

Totals:
64,546 52.5% Dahle
58,300 47.5% Kiley
 


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on June 04, 2019, 11:15:41 pm
Alpine County is up to 80% reporting

126 73.3% Dahle
46 26.7% Kiley

Totals:
64,956 52.6% Dahle
58,435 47.4% Kiley
Supposedly 54.1% reporting. Not sure how much I believe the reporting percentage. In the March primary, there were 194,756 total voters, including 49,000 for the legitimate Dem. Right now we're at about 123,500 give or take.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on June 04, 2019, 11:28:54 pm
Alpine County is up to 80% reporting

126 73.3% Dahle
46 26.7% Kiley

Totals:
64,956 52.6% Dahle
58,435 47.4% Kiley
Supposedly 54.1% reporting. Not sure how much I believe the reporting percentage. In the March primary, there were 194,756 total voters, including 49,000 for the legitimate Dem. Right now we're at about 123,500 give or take.

It's now up to 60.7% reporting district wide with a negligible vote change.

65,102 52.6% Dahle
58,636 47.4% Kiley


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on June 04, 2019, 11:38:55 pm
Democrats probably decided to be idiots and sit SD-1 election out completely. Well, they are likely to have a right-wing nutjob Dahle representing them..


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on June 05, 2019, 12:07:01 am
Probably my last update for the night:

65,956 52.8% Dahle
58,902 47.2% Kiley
66% reporting

It's definitely looking like Dems sat this one out, which is disappointing. Not sure if they would've swung it for Kiley, but jeez people, at least vote for the best of the Republicans (whoever you think that may be) or the one who's more likely to be replaced by a Dem (0.5% chance vs 0% chance).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on June 05, 2019, 12:11:54 am
Probably my last update for the night:

65,956 52.8% Dahle
58,902 47.2% Kiley
66% reporting

It's definitely looking like Dems sat this one out, which is disappointing. Not sure if they would've swung it for Kiley, but jeez people, at least vote for the best of the Republicans (whoever you think that may be) or the one who's more likely to be replaced by a Dem (0.5% chance vs 0% chance).

One more confirmation of the fact, that continuing ideologisation and polarisation of American politics makes it more and more idiotic with every passig year.... Reasonably sure, that 2020 will be even worse...


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on June 05, 2019, 01:15:18 am
BTW, situation in SD-33 is somewhat interesting too. Of course it was (and is) a reliable Democratic district, where HRC got almost 84% of votes. But Gonzalez undrperformed (and Guerrero - overperformed) rather significantly - it's about 69-31 now. I understand quite well, that this is a very low turnout special, but still - remarkable.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Oryxslayer on June 05, 2019, 07:25:36 am
BTW, situation in SD-33 is somewhat interesting too. Of course it was (and is) a reliable Democratic district, where HRC got almost 84% of votes. But Gonzalez undrperformed (and Guerrero - overperformed) rather significantly - it's about 69-31 now. I understand quite well, that this is a very low turnout special, but still - remarkable.

Rule 3 of Specials: Hispanic vote drops off precariously during any non-november election. We have seen this already this years in Texas specials, saw it before 2018 in California specials, saw it in the Texas primary...its only Nevada that sometimes bucks the trend if the national parties are pouring in cash for a certain election.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on June 05, 2019, 10:58:14 am
Final:

Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
70,556   
53.1%

Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
62,259   
46.9%

Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
26,343   
69.0%

Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
11,835   
31.0%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on June 05, 2019, 11:00:32 am
Final:

Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
70,556   
53.1%

Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
62,259   
46.9%

Lena Gonzalez
(Party Preference: DEM)
26,343   
69.0%

Jack M. Guerrero
(Party Preference: REP)
11,835   
31.0%


Iíd like to note that thereís still ballots to be counted in both races, but I think itís safe to call both.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: DINGO Joe stands on Sanchez on June 05, 2019, 01:46:55 pm
BTW, situation in SD-33 is somewhat interesting too. Of course it was (and is) a reliable Democratic district, where HRC got almost 84% of votes. But Gonzalez undrperformed (and Guerrero - overperformed) rather significantly - it's about 69-31 now. I understand quite well, that this is a very low turnout special, but still - remarkable.

Like Oryx said, it's not remarkable, it's pretty typical.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on June 05, 2019, 02:40:08 pm
BTW, situation in SD-33 is somewhat interesting too. Of course it was (and is) a reliable Democratic district, where HRC got almost 84% of votes. But Gonzalez undrperformed (and Guerrero - overperformed) rather significantly - it's about 69-31 now. I understand quite well, that this is a very low turnout special, but still - remarkable.

Like Oryx said, it's not remarkable, it's pretty typical.

When party candidate doubles his party Presidential candidate's percentages in his/her race - it's remarkable. At least - for me.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Annatar on June 09, 2019, 03:14:34 am
I'm not a big believer in the idea special election swings tell us much about what will happen in a general election, especially in a Presidential year but for what its worth, the average swing in the 29 special elections since the midterms where both parties together got at least 90% of the vote has been 6.1% towards the dems compared to Trump-Clinton and 0.8% compared to Obama-Romney, the average in the 2017-2018 cycle was 11.2% vs Clinton's number and 5.9% compared to Obama according to DailyKos. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dXQhlzCAw05fC7P21eCivdfLOB-F3nykPVRPzG49U9g/edit#gid=0

For a more exact comparison, in the first 29 special elections post Nov 8 2016 which went through to August of 2017 the average swing vs Clinton was 12.5% in the dems favour and 9.6% vs Obama. Again I'm not sure this really means anything but it might be a marker of reduced democratic energy.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on June 11, 2019, 05:29:49 pm
Today we have the special primary for Alabama HD 74. The Republican Primary is hotly contested; the democratic primary consists of one candidate running unopposed. Results will be here: http://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionnight/countyResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1001040&cid=03

Additionally we have the special general for Maine HD 45. Democrats are expected to hold the seat.

Polls close at 8 ET


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Politician on June 11, 2019, 07:32:27 pm


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on June 11, 2019, 07:40:14 pm
7% in:

Michael Fritz (REP)   
chart
10.42%
5
Tobias Grant (REP)   
chart
2.08%
1
Jesse Caleb Heifner (REP)   
chart
2.08%
1
Jay King (REP)   
chart
4.17%
2
Charlotte Meadows (REP)   
chart
60.42%
29
Daniel Sparkman (REP)   
chart
20.83%
10


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on June 11, 2019, 07:56:58 pm


"All I know is he's won, per the local party. Maine doesn't post SOS results, but ideally I'll find numbers within the next hour" ( https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1138604721185394688 )

Perhaps it was this tweet from House Majority Leader Matt Moonen: https://twitter.com/mattmoonen/status/1138603403712651264 .

I think he did that with at least one of the earlier special elections this year.  I wish people would just wait until the actual numbers came in, but of course if the victory is underwhelming the party would want the victory to be the "breaking news."


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on June 11, 2019, 08:50:48 pm
Final:

Percent
Votes
Michael Fritz (REP)   
chart
22.30%
618
Tobias Grant (REP)   
chart
6.93%
192
Jesse Caleb Heifner (REP)   
chart
11.58%
321
Jay King (REP)   
chart
4.15%
115
Charlotte Meadows (REP)   
chart
43.96%

1,218
Daniel Sparkman (REP)   
chart
11.08%
307
   
2,771


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on June 11, 2019, 09:01:20 pm
According to the Portland Press Herald, Moriarty (D) carried Cumberland (like 82% of the district based on 2010 census figures) 1,221 votes (61.73%) to 757 (38.27%). They don't have results from the Gray portion of the district (most of Gray is in another district), but while the Gray portion does seem to be a bit more Republican it's clear Moriarty has won, most likely north of 60%.

www.pressherald.com/2019/06/11/local-election-results-for-southern-maine/


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Kevinstat on June 11, 2019, 09:59:17 pm
According to the Portland Press Herald, Moriarty (D) carried Cumberland (like 82% of the district based on 2010 census figures) 1,221 votes (61.73%) to 757 (38.27%). They don't have results from the Gray portion of the district (most of Gray is in another district), but while the Gray portion does seem to be a bit more Republican it's clear Moriarty has won, most likely north of 60%.

www.pressherald.com/2019/06/11/local-election-results-for-southern-maine/

portion of Gray in the district (unofficial, of course everything's unofficial until the losing candidate indicates that he will not request a recount, although that may have already happened): Moriarty (D) 68 (59.13%), Hughes (R) 47 (40.87%).

Overall: Moriarty (D) 1289 (61.59%), Hughes (R) 804 (38.41%).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MaxQue on June 12, 2019, 08:15:34 am
Final:

Percent
Votes
Michael Fritz (REP)   
chart
22.30%
618
Tobias Grant (REP)   
chart
6.93%
192
Jesse Caleb Heifner (REP)   
chart
11.58%
321
Jay King (REP)   
chart
4.15%
115
Charlotte Meadows (REP)   
chart
43.96%

1,218
Daniel Sparkman (REP)   
chart
11.08%
307
   
2,771

Fritz should be in bold too, this is Alabama, so there is a runoff.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: smoltchanov on June 18, 2019, 08:34:41 pm
Republicans hold both FL-07 and FL-38. Result in FL-38:

Randy Maggard REP 9,615 55.58%

Kelly Smith DEM 7,684 44.42%

may be considered rather good for Democrats despite loss, result in HD-07:

Jason Shoaf REP 11,604 71.3%

Ryan Terrell DEM 4,670 28.7%

- surely not, as Democratic candidate managed to underperform even HRC in this rural, ancestrally Democratic, but solidly conservative district. Probably - he simply doesn't fit it....

Excellent paper on HD-07 and it's peculiar politics is here:

https://mcimaps.com/hd7-2019-special-election-the-last-of-floridas-conservative-democratic-districts/

In some cases it's ridiculous: very rural Liberty county, with about 70% Democratic registration and all-Democratic for county offices, went almost 4-1 for Republican candidate (and almost equally divided by registration Lafayette, which is majority-Democratic on county level: 7-1). Democrats continue to crater in rural South. They are lucky, that South became less rural of late.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on June 18, 2019, 08:46:21 pm
There are no further state leg specials until August.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: skbl17 on July 10, 2019, 12:40:07 pm
Special election for GA-HD-71 to be held on September 3 (https://gov.georgia.gov/sites/gov.georgia.gov/files/related_files/document/07.05.19.01.pdf) due to the resignation of Rep. David Stover. The eastern Coweta-based district is solidly Republican (it was R+[some number greater than 45] in 2018).


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ebsy on July 21, 2019, 06:43:02 pm
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/st-louis-state-rep-bruce-franks-says-he-s-leaving/article_0ff62be2-8182-5a64-8cbd-8f48c51239e5.html

Representative Bruce Franks is resigning on the 31, currently represents a House district that covers most of Downtown St. Louis and some neighborhoods north. Heavily black and Democratic. Special election should be in November.

Hopefully the Hubbards don't manage to stage a come back here, one would think two seats on the Board of Aldermen would be enough.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on August 13, 2019, 05:13:34 pm
August 6th Elections:

WA State Senate 40 (1st Round): Lovelett (D) and Miller (R) advanced
WA State House District 13, Position 2 (1st Round): Yabarra (R) and Verhey (D) advanced

Schedule for the late summer and fall. Primaries and uncontested races are not included.

8/20: Pennsylvania House 85, South Carolina House 19
8/27: California State Assembly District 1 (1st Round)
9/3: Georgia House 71 (1st Round)
10/1: South Carolina House 84, Georgia House 71 (Runoff)
10/8: New Hampshire House 9th Rockingham District

11/5: VOTE-O-RAMA!!!

Alabama: House 42
Arkansas: House 36
California: Assembly 1 (Runoff)
Missouri: House 22, 36, 74, 78, 99, 158
New Jersey: Senate 1
New York: Senate 57
Texas: House 100
Washington: Runoffs for Senate 40 and House 13, Position 2


11/12: Alabama House 74


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ebsy on August 13, 2019, 05:31:21 pm
It's crazy how many members have ditched the Missouri House of Reps. I knew things were bad but it must be a lot worse to serve than I thought.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: libertpaulian on August 13, 2019, 06:20:48 pm
Any pickup opportunities for either party?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Politician on August 13, 2019, 06:29:01 pm
Any pickup opportunities for either party?
Here's how I would rate the races:
PA-HD-85: Safe R
SC-HD-19: Safe R

CA-AD-1: Safe R

GA-HD-71: Safe R

SC-HD-84: Safe R

NH-HD-Rockingham 8: Tossup

AL-HD-42: Safe R
AR-HD-36: Safe D
MO-HD-22/36/74/78: Safe D
MO-HD-99: Tossup
MO-HD-158: Safe R
NJ-SD-1: Lean D
NY-SD-57: Safe R
TX-SD-100: Safe D
WA-SD-40: Safe D
WA-HD-13B: Safe R


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on August 13, 2019, 06:30:37 pm
Any pickup opportunities for either party?


Some Texas GOP rep retired, very unlikely pickup by Democrats.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Ebsy on August 17, 2019, 01:02:45 pm
Any pickup opportunities for either party?

MO-HD 99 is drawing a lot of resources from both parties. I would say Democrats are slightly favored to pick it up.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on August 20, 2019, 07:09:28 pm
Results:

SC: https://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/96549/Web02-state.228807/#/
PA: https://electionreturns.pa.gov/

Nothing in yet


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on August 20, 2019, 07:18:28 pm
Just absentee vote in SC so far:

Carrie Counton (D) 40
Patrick Haddon (R) 36

This does indicate an R blowout in all likelihood given the Democratic lean of absentees (the state Senate special election in this area in March had a massive Dem lead in absentees)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on August 20, 2019, 07:24:10 pm
Everything just dumped in at once:

Patrick Haddon (R) 61%
Carrie Counton (D) 39%

Pretty much what you'd expect, really. Counton winning 2 precincts is actually pretty impressive given that zero of the precincts in this seat voted for Tina Belge in the SD-06 special in March.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LCameronOR on August 20, 2019, 07:41:06 pm
Everything just dumped in at once:

Patrick Haddon (R) 61%
Carrie Counton (D) 39%

Pretty much what you'd expect, really. Counton winning 2 precincts is actually pretty impressive given that zero of the precincts in this seat voted for Tina Belge in the SD-06 special in March.
Less than 10% turnout is depressing.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LCameronOR on August 20, 2019, 08:26:38 pm
45% of PA-85 in:

Rowe - 66.75% (2927 votes)

Rager-Kay - 33.25% (1458 votes)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LCameronOR on August 20, 2019, 08:37:19 pm
65% of PA-85 in

Rowe - 62.7% (4159 votes)

Rager-Kay - 37.3% (2474 votes)


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LCameronOR on August 20, 2019, 09:17:56 pm
100% of PA-85 in

Rowe - 62.62% (6489 votes)

Rager-Kay - 35.79% (3874 votes)

FINAL: R +26.83

By County
Snyder
Rowe - 72.92 % (3035 votes)

Rager-Kay - 27.08% (1127 votes)

Union
Rowe - 55.70% (3454 votes)

Rager-Kay - 44.30% (2747 votes)

Previous Results
2018
R +35.4
2014
R +38.4


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on August 20, 2019, 10:03:34 pm
Certainly a disappointing night.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: soundchaser on August 20, 2019, 10:07:23 pm

Not *that* disappointing ó thatís a pretty sizable swing in PA. Bodes well for next year.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Duke of York on August 20, 2019, 10:38:02 pm

Its not disappointing at all. Both of these were very red districts


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LCameronOR on August 20, 2019, 10:59:01 pm
A 9-point swing to the D candidate after a Dem wave year is not disappointing if you're a democrat. Does not bode well for 2020.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on August 20, 2019, 11:01:13 pm
A 9-point swing to the D candidate after a Dem wave year is not disappointing if you're a democrat. Does not bode well for 2020.

Anything short of a win is a disappointment.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LCameronOR on August 20, 2019, 11:05:43 pm
A 9-point swing to the D candidate after a Dem wave year is not disappointing if you're a democrat. Does not bode well for 2020.

Anything short of a win is a disappointment.
What did you honestly expect with two safe R districts? I'd save that energy for tossup races.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Annatar on August 21, 2019, 05:42:34 am
The dems ran 3% ahead of Clinton in District 19 in SC and 8.2% in District 85 in PA, overall medium sized swings. So far we have had 34 special elections with both parties since the midterms and the dems have run 5.6% ahead of Clinton's number in them, in 2018 in the 49 special elections where both parties stood, dems ran 11.2% ahead of Clinton and of the 68 elections in 2017, dems also ran 11.2% ahead of Clinton.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: wbrocks67 on August 21, 2019, 09:07:13 am
The fact that the PA special ran ahead of even 2018 bodes very well.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Senator ON Progressive on August 21, 2019, 03:31:18 pm
A 9-point swing to the D candidate after a Dem wave year is not disappointing if you're a democrat. Does not bode well for 2020.

Anything short of a win is a disappointment.
What did you honestly expect with two safe R districts? I'd save that energy for tossup races.

Especially since the PA district has two counties that have literally never voted D since the Civil War.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on August 27, 2019, 07:59:20 pm
Follow Results for the CA Special tonight here: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/special/state-assembly/district/1

If no one gets 50%, the top two go to a runoff.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Arch on August 27, 2019, 10:21:44 pm
Follow Results for the CA Special tonight here: https://vote.sos.ca.gov/special/state-assembly/district/1

If no one gets 50%, the top two go to a runoff.

First results coming in (5.3% reporting):

Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
   6,707   
42.5%

   Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
   5,767   
36.5%

   Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
   2,010   
12.7%

   Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
   525   
3.3%

   Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
   786   
5.0%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on August 27, 2019, 10:24:29 pm
9% in:

Candidate   Votes
Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
11,942   
33.9%
Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
12,443   
35.4%
Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
8,253   
23.5%
Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
945   
2.7%
Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
1,594   
4.5%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on August 27, 2019, 10:32:29 pm
13% in:

   Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
12,835   
34.2%
Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
13,595   
36.3%
Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
8,386   
22.4%
Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
962   
2.6%
Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
1,708   
4.6%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Arch on August 27, 2019, 10:40:35 pm
24.5% in:

Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
   24,132   
40.9%
   Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
   20,976   
35.5%
   Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
   9,817   
16.6%
   Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
   1,223   
2.1%
   Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
   2,921   
4.9%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on August 27, 2019, 10:57:16 pm
PROJECTION:

Candidate   Votes
Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
24,899   
39.9%
Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
22,772   
36.5%

Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
10,061   
16.1%
Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
1,282   
2.1%
Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
3,410   
5.5%


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on August 28, 2019, 10:42:35 am
Final:

Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
27,786   
39.1%
Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
25,669   
36.2%

Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
12,298   
17.3%
Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
1,305   
1.8%
Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
3,943   
5.6%

This is a tough district for a Dem to win, but these results point to anything being possible in Round 2. The Democrat won the most votes in this first round, and 5/9 counties went either for the Democrat or the third-place candidate. Republicans are clearly disunified and split. Should be an interesting runoff.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: LCameronOR on August 28, 2019, 06:17:47 pm
Final:

Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
27,786   
39.1%
Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
25,669   
36.2%

Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
12,298   
17.3%
Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
1,305   
1.8%
Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
3,943   
5.6%

This is a tough district for a Dem to win, but these results point to anything being possible in Round 2. The Democrat won the most votes in this first round, and 5/9 counties went either for the Democrat or the third-place candidate. Republicans are clearly disunified and split. Should be an interesting runoff.
Voted for Cox by 22.4% and Trump by 20.6. It's Titanium R. The runoff will be fairly straightforward and Dahle will win by 25-26 points.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: MaxQue on August 28, 2019, 07:40:24 pm
Final:

Elizabeth Betancourt
(Party Preference: DEM)
27,786   
39.1%
Megan Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
25,669   
36.2%

Patrick Henry Jones
(Party Preference: REP)
12,298   
17.3%
Lane Rickard
(Party Preference: REP)
1,305   
1.8%
Joe Turner
(Party Preference: REP)
3,943   
5.6%

This is a tough district for a Dem to win, but these results point to anything being possible in Round 2. The Democrat won the most votes in this first round, and 5/9 counties went either for the Democrat or the third-place candidate. Republicans are clearly disunified and split. Should be an interesting runoff.
Voted for Cox by 22.4% and Trump by 20.6. It's Titanium R. The runoff will be fairly straightforward and Dahle will win by 25-26 points.

I struggle to see how the margin will be over 22. You did some people voted D now and will vote for Dahle in the runoff?


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Cougar 2020 🐆 on August 29, 2019, 03:46:14 pm
Canít believe I missed this one. I blame the issues Iíve been having getting the paper delivered.

But yeah, itís titanium R in the general. So Dahleís sister/wife/daughter/whatever will in all likelihood be the next assemblywoman.


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on September 04, 2019, 09:16:48 am
GA-71 Result:

NINA BLACKWELDER (REP)6.86%343
JILL E. PROUTY (DEM)22.11%1,106
MARCY WESTMORELAND SAKRISON (REP)34.20%1,711
PHILIP SINGLETON (REP)36.84%1,843

5,003


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on October 01, 2019, 07:45:40 pm
GA-71 Runoff:

MARCY WESTMORELAND SAKRISON (REP)41.14%1,788
PHILIP SINGLETON (REP)58.86%2,558
4,346

SC-84 - 57% in:

REP Melissa Oremus96.69%146
NON NON   Write-in3.31%5
151


Title: Re: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on October 08, 2019, 10:10:47 pm
Final results GOP Vose edges Democrat Andrews in Epping, 880-806.

(NH Rockingham 9)