Talk Elections

I know it's early, but how do you rate the 2021 contest for the VA Executive Mansion ?

Dem hold, but might be close-ish if Trump loses in 2020.

Remember that Virginia had a tendency to elect governors from the party opposite of the incumbent President's party from 1977 onwards (except 2013), even when the incumbent President's party won VA decisively at the Presidential level. The 2021 result could indicate whether 2013 was just an aberration or part of a larger pro-Democratic trend.

We're going to find out soon enough.

Dems hold the governors mansion, if I had to guess. The real question is who could be the Democratic nominee? A few months ago, I thought it would be a battle between Justin Fairfax and Mark Herring, but that seems unlikely now... Perhaps Levar Stoney runs? I could also see Tom Perriello doing well if he runs again. Maybe one  of the new members of Congress (Wexton, Spanberger, or Luria) decides to run? None of them would have to give up their seats, because it’s an off year election.

Tom Perriello run please.

It's true, may be within single digits if Trump loses.


I think we have enough evidence to say that this trend effectively stopped in 2013 and VA now votes as a solid blue state. The only reason this fell into the "trend" in 2017 was because the President was a Republican and VA would have still voted comfortably for Northam if Hillary won.

Let's be honest, the trend would have held in 2013 if the VAGOP had nominated Bolling. T-Mac was not seen as a good candidate.

Maybe. Bolling generated zero excitement. People forget that 2013 was still in the midst of the Tea Party phase and that wing of the party is where all of the energy in the Republican Party was.

Bolling vs. T-Mac would have been lawful neutral vs. lawful neutral instead of lawful neutral vs. chaotic evil. Kuccinelli was chaotic evil but chaotic still brings your base out to vote even if it drives the other side out as well.

I don't think the people are consciously voting this way. I think the trends in presidential politics and Virginia's transition from a Solid South state to a brief Republican state to a Democratic state again just happened to create a situation where it looked like people were picking Governors methodically but really it's just because neither party had an iron grip on the state and so a backlash to the party that controlled the White House was enough to put the "out party" over in Virginia executive races.

But fast forward to 2013-2017, where polarization and VA's Democratic trend meant that there are no longer enough ticket splitters or residual GOP strength to overcome the dominant party's grip on power.

Yeah, the whole "elect governors of opposite party" thing is more coincidence than causation – Wyoming also had a similar pattern for longer than Virginia, if I recall correctly, but Mark Gordon pretty easily waltzed into office.

Democratic hold

May flip if Trump loses and the Dem has horrendous approvals, abd the GOP nomniates a moderate

Dem hold

If Trump wins: Safe D, Democrats +12-16
If Trump loses: Safe D, Democrats +8-12

I’m probably being too generous to Republicans.

I'm predicting a Republcan sweep of all statewide offices in 2021.  It may be the last time in my lifetime that ever happens, but the Democrats in VA have shot themselves in the foot in ways I never dreamed possible.

If the body of Democrats had accepted Northam's apology quietly and gone onward, they would not be where they are now.  Where they are now is in the status of being a collective laughingstock.  And, on top of all of that, their own behavior was catalytic in bringing up the worst allegations; the actual sexual allegations against their Lt. Governor, Justin Fairfax.  (And they all came out AFTER Democratic pols called for Northam's resignation saying things like how Justin Fairfax was "the Governor VA needs right now".

Perhaps the Democrats have learned the wisdom of not hammering people for what they did in 1984 by the standards of 2019.  Then, again, we are a nation of slow learners, so . . .

D hold because Trump is winning reelection

Depends on who is the WH

Republicans hold MD-GOV if Trump loses reelection tbh

I would be predicting a Republican sweep of all statewide offices too... if this was the 1990s.

Polarization has become too much of a force for these scandals to matter, and they'll have no effect especially considering almost everyone was calling for Northam and Fairfax to resign, and the AG's scandal was handled basically perfectly by him. Grietens and his issues didn't cost Republicans in Missouri, so why would the scandals that VA Democrats had hurt Democrats who had nothing to do with those scandals?

Okay. Looking forward to Dems picking up 4-5 seats in the Senate in 2019 despite being the "a collective laughingstock"

The thing that none of the Republicans who concern-troll over the blackface stuff care about is that the VAGOP is toxic and couldn't beat a Democratic party that inadvertently tied one of its behind its back. You're talking about a party that lost a 2-1 House of Delegates majority in one election, nominated a Neo Confederate to run against Tim Kaine, and thought that running on MS-13 would win them a governorship when Trump ran an anti-immigrant campaign and lost Virginia decisively.

Anybody who is paying attention to this stuff beyond what they see in a USGD thread will realize that the vast majority of Democratic voters can separate dumb stuff that Northam did from the entire rest of the state party apparatus.

Safe D.

I very much doubt it. The VA GOP is well on their way to irrelevancy. They would have lost the House of Delegates in 2017 under a fair map and had it not been for an unfairly counted ballot in Newport News.

It is extremely unlikely they will retain control of either chamber of the State Legislature in November and will lose them divisively.

How would an all female ticket do in Virginia in 2021? Maybe McClellan-Favola-Carroll Foy? Good regional, ethnic, and age diversity. Might be able to move the state and the party beyond Northam-Fairfax-Herring.

500 cry-laughing emojis.

NO, if MD Dems blow that seat, they just disband as a party. even David Trone would bury Boyd Rutherford, by double digits

What are the odds we'll see Richmond, VA Mayor Levar Stoney (D) running for statewide office in 2021 ?

More like Safe D if Trump is President and Likely D if a Democrat is President.

I think its pretty likely Stoney runs for Governor in 2021, especially with Fairfax and Herring being embroiled in their scandals.

He seems pretty ambitious.

 https://twitter.com/rubycramer/status/1118693685150011392

TMAC-Stoney-Perriello or TMAC-Northam-Herring will work for a successful statewide ticket. What a beautiful piece of news — this’ll excite millions of voters across the state.

If Vogel ran, would she have any chance? She ran closer then Gillespie in 2017 and she's from NVA

The VA Lieutenant Governor is elected independent separately.

Bring back the T-Mac.

Titanium D.

If this was any other state than VA, it’d probably be close. You know they’re going to run a loon on the Republican side

Hope T-Mac runs again. He was a successful and honest governor. Maybe they can then get rid of the silly one-term limit?

Abigail Spanberger would also be a good candidate, though I'd prefer her to keep her seat or replace Mark Warner.

I do NOT see VA removing the 1-term rule anytime soon. They seem to like the status quo up there.

On Warner: I do NOT see him giving up his US Senate seat anytime soon.

Its probably very likely he runs for Governor if he wins reelection as Mayor next year.

What is wrong with Herring?

Herring's damaged because of his own blackface scandal & the VA Dems do NOT want to see him as their nominee for Governor in 2021.

If I was the VA Dems, I would distance myself from Northam, Fairfax & Herring altogether & cut ties with them as well. Got to avoid all 3 of them at all costs.

where did you get the info from that Dems don't want Herring as the nominee?

I hope Stoney runs and its very likely in my view he does if he wins reelection next year. He seems very ambitious

I knew Northam and Fairfax are dealing with scandals, but what happened with Herring? I wasn't aware of anything going on with him.

His 2021 campaign account is still open so he's running for now. He did a few interviews and has been doing the same 'racial reconciliation' tour stuff that Northam is doing. I think he has an uphill path in the primary though he's probably doomed if a women runs. Primary voters will probably want a clean break from all three in 2021.

He also admitted to wearing blackface at a college party, but unlike Northam there aren't any known pictures of him wearing it.

I still don't see Herring as the nominee though.

The possible Dem field

https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=863718

The possible GOP field

https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=863719

Fairfax "seriously" considering a campaign.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1143144254119825408

If he won the primary, I think the general could actually be competitive because of his rape allegations. I don't think VA Democratic Primary voters are dumb enough to nominate him though unless it's proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he isn't guilty of any wrongdoing.

Disgusting. He should resign from office immediately.

Hopefully T-Mac comes back.

Ugh. If he gets nominated in a Democratic midterm, the general would actually be a tossup.

Oh yeah. If the VA GOP can avoid a neo-confederate like Corey Stewart and put up someone relatively moderate like Jill Vogel, I think a lot of people would be willing to settle for her as compared to someone with several rape allegations.

The election taking place in a non-general election or midterm year definitely hurts their chances too.

I still think Fairfax would win if he won the nomination, the Democrats will circle the wagons around him just like with Bob Menendez

Say it with me yall- GOVERNOR LEE CARTER!

Ugh.

I wouldn’t expect him to win the primary, but it sure worries me that he may do so.

Dumb A****le for thinking about running and deserves to be in federal prison, longer then Weiner.

BIG 👏 LEE 👏 SHOULD 👏 RUN 👏