Talk Elections

Saskatchewan is clearly the second most conservative Canadian province and has been trending rightward since the 1990s due to the death of "agrarian socialism" and resource politics.

Alberta is more urban and diverse and with less regional polarization I could see more "liberal" tendencies emerging in Calgary and Edmonton.  But in federal politics the Conservatives function as a sort of big tent "party of Alberta" that draws in the types of people that would be "blue Liberals" or populist NDPers if they lived in Ontario or BC (and these Albertans do vote for other parties in provincial elections).

The relatively strong showing of the Liberals in Calgary and Edmonton in the 2015 election suggested that Saskatchewan could displace Alberta as most conservative province.  Yes, Alberta was still 10 points more Conservative in the popular vote, but there seems to be more potential Liberal (and to a lesser extent NDP) growth in Alberta than in Saskatchewan where you see pretty much see the non-Conservative parties competitive in all the expected places (also Saskatchewan was the weakest province for the Liberals in 2015).

But now...Western alienation has come roaring back with a vengance, so maybe not so fast.

So...will Saskatchewan become the most conservative province any time soon?

Yeah, if the Liberals continue their current US Dem path of catering only to Toronto and Calgary billionaires and the NDP continues forgetting their roots.

The Calgary elite ain't going Liberal. 

How are "populist NDPers" analogous to "blue Liberals"? I thought the NDP is left of the Liberals on both economic and social issues.

They're very different.  My point is that both of these very different groups vote for the federal Conservatives.  The CPC really is that big a tent in Alberta.

Saskatchewan is the less urbanized province (40% of its population is in Regina and Saskatoon, compared to 60% of Alberta's population is in Calgary and Edmonton).  But Calgary remains the most conservative city in the Prairies.  Interestingly Edmonton is more NDP than Regina and Saskatoon provincially, but less so federally.  Also the rural areas in AB are a bit more conservative than SK. 

What are the demographics/views of voters who support the NDP in Alberta elections and the federal conservatives?

There's surprisingly little polling on this, but between polling and election results, it seems that such voters are disproportionately women (Alberta has a massive gender voting gap), and live in the Edmonton suburbs. To be honest they sound like Romney-Clinton voters.

According to pollster Frank Graves, political views in Alberta and Saskatchewan are virtually identical these days.

Pretty damn close.  Nothing but Conservatives elected in Saskatchewan.

In 2021.

Calgary was built around oil and natural gas and before that, mining.

A party identified as a distinctly pro-fossil fuels party is always going to do well in Calgary.

It is in their economic interests.

Indeed it is.