Talk Elections

Indiana Attorney General Curtis Hill, a black Republican, one of the GOP's rising stars, is embroiled in a sexual assault scandal, in which his fellow Republicans, whites, have called on him to resign or have distanced from him.

I think this is a prime Indiana Democratic pickup for statewide offices.

Who can beat AG Hill?

Nobody, because Joe Donnelly could not win as an incumbent. Indiana is just too red.

#ButtigiegWouldHaveWon

A primary opponent

Downballot races, especially non governor ones are not that polarized

But there are exactly four Democrats who can win in Indiana: Joe Donnelly, John R. Gregg, Brad Ellsworth, Baron Hill


Look for Donnelly to make a comeback

But someone like Messer could always make a comeback with a primary challenge, could also see some state legislators take a crack at primarying Hill

If IN Dems are smart, they’ll run Donnelly, who can definitely win this race, especially if a crazy primaries Hill, this looks a lot like IN-SEN 2012, incumbent vulnerable to a primary challenge from a nut, but unlike Lugar, Hill, himself, is quite weak

Because a lot of Democrats see black Republicans are tokens, etc.

Big question is whether Hill can survive these scandals & win reelection ? Has the IN GOP tried to pressure him into retirement ?

Besides a GOP primary opponent... no one.

The average voter in Indiana has no idea that Curtis Hill is a Weak Incumbent™.

isn't this the guy who does some weird ass elvis impression?

This is the kind of thing that reminds me why I decided to follow American politics

*ding ding ding*

This race has IN-9 written all over it: vulnerable to a Democratic challenge under conventional wisdom, which is increasingly shown to be worth very little as Indiana settles comfortably in the Republican column down ballot.

You're from Indiana, explain why.

Rokita and Messer (who, amusingly, both have JDs) ought to blow each other up again and let Hill come up through the middle.

Also like no one cares about that anymore. Sexual assault is sooo 2018.

In simplest terms, because Indiana Democrats are losing ground everywhere except the suburbs, and demographic change is not rapid enough to make up for the collapse in the Southern part of the state. Those rural Southern counties are what allowed Joe Donnelly to win and John Gregg to nearly defeat Mike Pence in 2012. In 2018, they voted overwhelmingly for Braun—and Donnelly was much better funded, better known, more experienced running a statewide campaign, and benefitted from more media attention on his race than whoever the party ends up running against Curtis Hill in 2020. For whatever reason, these areas are no longer willing to vote for a Blue Dog candidate the way they were even ten years ago; chalk it up to Trump, or generational change, or the state GOP being mostly competent and disinclined to flights of conservative fantasy legislating compared to their counterparts in Kansas or Wisconsin: it comes to the same thing. Hill might lose to a challenger at the State Convention, but he'll win reelection in the fall if he doesn't, even if the margin of this race is somewhat narrower than Holcomb's reelection likely will be.

Partly, this comes down to what Joshua said: most people aren't following this scandal closely enough for it to change their vote. I'd be surprised if a majority of Hoosiers could independently name the Attorney General or, vice versa, tell you exactly who Curtis Hill is or describe the allegations against him with any degree of specificity. That being the case, it's hard to see where the fuel for a "Republicans for [insert Dem nominee here]" campaign is going to come from. Glenda Ritz managed to pull off a win in the 2012 Superintendent race—in an environment much more favorable to Democrats than 2020 is likely to be—thanks to the support of teachers' unions and parents upset over the Common Core. Who are the anti-Hill Republicans who are going to bring the same degree of passion and commitment to this race next year? Unlike the SoPI, the State Attorney General doesn't have a direct impact on most people's lives. We've already seen that politicians and voters are willing to ignore sexual harassment charges as it suits their narrative. Especially considering the charges were originally made two years before the election, I doubt this will be a burning issue in most voters' minds—except maybe for those who were never going to vote for Hill anyways.

Finally, the state Democratic party is an organizational wreck and is unlikely to have the funds to mount a serious challenge to Hill, especially with a popular incumbent like Holcomb leading the opposing slate.

Also worth noting that apart from Governor and U.S. Senate, candidates for statewide office are chosen at party conventions, not in the primary: so this would have to be a decision by the leadership to dump Hill, not a grassroots campaign such as toppled Lugar in 2012.

This. It would take a Democratic landslide nationwide to take down Hill, especially considering Holcomb will likely wipe the floor with his opponent.

Holcomb literally only won by 6 in a Republican tilting national environment, no more than the amount that Donnelly lost by in a Democratic leaning national environment. He is not Safe.

Yeah, but now he's an incumbent rather than being a tainted nominee because of Pence. He also won't be running against John Gregg, who outraised him and was popular across the state. Democrats have also lost a lot of ground in the rural parts of the state as previously mentioned that Holcomb will win this time.

Note that Charlie Baker won by 2 with a plurality in very R-friendly 2014, and got almost 2/3 of the vote in D-friendly 2018. Just like him, Holcomb has become very popular, and will win easily.

Probably the dumbest comment of the month.
The democratic sacrificial lamb will be lucky to win 36% of the vote

No one.  

The Indiana Democratic bench is completely decimated, and their only "star" candidate, Christina Hale, is likely to challenge Susan Brooks for IN-05.  Plus, Hale can't run for AG anyway because she doesn't have a law degree and thus isn't a member of the Indiana Bar.
 

Curtis Hill deserves to burn for what he did to the Elkhart 4.

What exactly did he do to them ?

You should try. I think you'd make a very compelling GE candidate for the voters of Indiana.

I’d like to see Attorney General Trey Hollingsworth. That way Erin Houchin can get her revenge.

He "only won by 6" when it looked the week of the election like Gregg had a good shot at winning. The Trump landslide kind of condemned Gregg, but he was the best candidate of the 3 major Democrats running statewide in 2016 between him, Hillary, and Bayh.

As far as this race, I think this is the only noise the Democrats will attempt to make statewide in 2020. Brian Howey has reported that Democrats are considering putting up a sacrificial lamb for governor and choose to focus on Attorney General. It's to the point now that some think Buttigieg is going to use a failed presidential run to run for governor, which I don't see. I think Buttigieg is trying to get out of Indiana as fast as he can politically.

Holcomb had asked Hill to resign after the House investigation into it. This was refused. It's part of an intra-party squabble that's not been resolved yet. Hill was considering running against Holcomb in 2020 in a primary pre-scandal, and I think the scandal as well as horrid internal polling numbers Hill backers ran showed that's not going to happen. Hill gets more interest than he would otherwise because he's an elected black Republican, but if you didn't follow politics intensely, which most people don't, the voters in 2016 didn't know he was black, they think he's just a guy named Curtis. Harry Truman is stating as much.

Last tea leaves I saw on it was people in the state GOP were asking Todd Rokita to consider running for Attorney General. I think Hill being on the ballot in 2020 is opposed by Holcomb, State Chairman Kyle Hupfer, and State House Speaker Brian Bosma. They need a candidate to put forward at the Convention however.

This is a little more than a month old.