Talk Elections

I predict a sweep for Democrats in all three conservative states.

Red state Democrats will make a comeback in 2019---potentially culminating with a bigger 2020 comeback in West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri.

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Louisiana: Gov. John Bel Edwards beats Ralph Abraham
Kentucky: KY AG Adam Beshear beats Gov. Matt Bevin 52-48%
Mississippi: MS AG Jim Hood beats Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves 53%-46%

All three red state governors should speak at the 2020 DNC in Milwaukee.

Also Democrats keep the KY and MS AG, pick up the LA AG (Landry's gone).

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KY: Bevin wins by 2
LA: Edwards wins by 9
MS: Reeves wins by 5

Republicans pick-up KY-AG, KY-SoS, and MS-AG. Republicans gain a supermajority in the MS Senate but are unable to do this in the MS House, LA Senate, or LA House.

KY: D pickup

MS: R's barely hold on here

LA: Easy D hold

Kansas and Montana say hi. Also, WV elected a Dem governor (although he switched)

Yes, but Massachusetts, Vermont, Maryland, and New Hampshire still outweigh somewhat...

Mississippi will get a black AG

The Democratic nominee for governor will only win in Louisiana; everywhere else there will be slight bumps, stagnation, and a possibility of a tight race in Kentucky that will ultimately vote R in the end.

Generally - my forecast at present moment too. Of course - in can change, but i still doubt...

Id say a D hold in LA, a R hold in MS, and a tossup but tilting R race in KY.

A Republican sweep would require Republicans not to have given up trying to take down Edwards, and Abraham is a categorical punt. I don't have high expectations of 2019 myself, but sky-is-falling nonsense hardly helps the Democratic cause.

Edwards wins by 3-5, Reeves by 5 and Bevin by 10

This, but Bevin by 8 instead of 10.

KY: Bevin +7
LA: Edwards +10
MS: Reeves +6

Edwards will be reelected in Louisiana, mark my words.

MS lean R
KY pure tossup from what I've seen
LA Tilt D I'm cautious about this one I think the R's have a really good chance to pick it up feels like a reduced of MO and IN sen where the incumbent only won because of how weak their opponent was last time

Tilt D: KY
Tossup LA
Tilt R MS

I agree.

I will add though that Edwards is a much stronger incumbent than McCaskill or Donnelly, and this is a gubernatorial race, not a senate race, thus I'd give Edwards a slight advantage.

That being said, he'll still have a hard time because the GOP has a decent nominee in Ralph Abraham (Edwards would be in serious trouble had Kennedy decided to run, on the other hand I'd be pretty confident of Edwards winning reelection had the GOP nominee ended up being Landry), and with such a polarized environment, and the LA Gov election taking place during the Democratic Presidential Primary campaign, this won't be an easy race for Edwards.

I'd agree with KY being a tossup. KY is a very red state, but Bevin is an unpopular governor and the Democrats have some decent candidates running, so who knows what could happen there.

MS on the other hand will most likely be a GOP hold. Tate Reeves is a decent candidate for the GOP, Bryant I believe is a popular governor, and MS is very red, so even though Hood is the best candidate the Democrats could possibly run, MS will probably be too much for them, although Hood has proven time and time again that's he's capable of winning in MS and that's why I'd rank MS Lean R too.

LA: JBE wins by double digits with 57%.

MS (OPEN): Hood (D) might pull this off, but who knows.

KY: Bevin (R) wins reelection narrowly.

KY: Safe R, Bevin wins by 10-12
LA: Lean D, Edwards wins by 4-7
MS: Lean R, Reeves wins by 3-5

Beshear will WIN

Thanks, I needed a good laugh.

JBE by double digits with 57%.

Holds for all respective parties

MS: Tilt D, Hood +2
KY: Tilt R, Bevin +5 (but this one’s really an underrated pick-up opportunity for Democrats)
LA: Likely D, JBE +14

Not buying the "Democrats can’t win any of these races because polarization, inelasticity, and Trump rallies" nonsense.

If democrats are lucky they will gain KY and keep LA but there is no scenario where they take IN and MO in 2020

As of now I would say
Bevin +5
Reeves +12
JBE +2

12? Don't believe. All other- possible.

Its possible if black turnout is awful but yeah I do see it hard that Jim Hood does 5 points worse than a corrupt black man.

KY is not Tilt R, its a tossup

But Espy was acquitted and him being supposedly corrupt didn’t stick as a plurality of voters still saw him favorably and Mississippi’s polarized nature.

Still - 12 is way too much. I could believe 5, but - not 12. Especially - with Hood's proverbial strength with "redneck whites" in North-East of the state...