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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections => Topic started by: bronz4141 on April 23, 2019, 03:08:27 pm



Title: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: bronz4141 on April 23, 2019, 03:08:27 pm
I predict a sweep for Democrats in all three conservative states.

Red state Democrats will make a comeback in 2019---potentially culminating with a bigger 2020 comeback in West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri.

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Louisiana: Gov. John Bel Edwards beats Ralph Abraham
Kentucky: KY AG Adam Beshear beats Gov. Matt Bevin 52-48%
Mississippi: MS AG Jim Hood beats Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves 53%-46%


All three red state governors should speak at the 2020 DNC in Milwaukee.

Also Democrats keep the KY and MS AG, pick up the LA AG (Landry's gone).


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Politician on April 23, 2019, 03:14:21 pm
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KY: Bevin wins by 2
LA: Edwards wins by 9
MS: Reeves wins by 5

Republicans pick-up KY-AG, KY-SoS, and MS-AG. Republicans gain a supermajority in the MS Senate but are unable to do this in the MS House, LA Senate, or LA House.


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Yang2020 on April 23, 2019, 03:25:58 pm
KY: D pickup

MS: R's barely hold on here

LA: Easy D hold


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Politician on April 23, 2019, 03:33:55 pm
Republicans sweep. Democratic states will elect Republican Governors all the time and it takes exceptional circumstances for Dems to win red state governorships
Kansas and Montana say hi. Also, WV elected a Dem governor (although he switched)


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: smoltchanov on April 23, 2019, 03:41:00 pm
Republicans sweep. Democratic states will elect Republican Governors all the time and it takes exceptional circumstances for Dems to win red state governorships
Kansas and Montana say hi. Also, WV elected a Dem governor (although he switched)

Yes, but Massachusetts, Vermont, Maryland, and New Hampshire still outweigh somewhat...


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: bronz4141 on April 23, 2019, 03:44:53 pm
Mississippi will get a black AG


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: PSOL on April 23, 2019, 03:46:51 pm
The Democratic nominee for governor will only win in Louisiana; everywhere else there will be slight bumps, stagnation, and a possibility of a tight race in Kentucky that will ultimately vote R in the end.


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: smoltchanov on April 23, 2019, 03:48:24 pm
The Democratic nominee will only win in Louisiana; everywhere else there will be slight bumps, stagnation, and a possibility of a tight race in Kentucky that will ultimately vote R in the end.

Generally - my forecast at present moment too. Of course - in can change, but i still doubt...


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Zaybay on April 23, 2019, 04:02:49 pm
Id say a D hold in LA, a R hold in MS, and a tossup but tilting R race in KY.


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: SvenTC on April 23, 2019, 04:04:43 pm
Republicans sweep. Democratic states will elect Republican Governors all the time and it takes exceptional circumstances for Dems to win red state governorships

A Republican sweep would require Republicans not to have given up trying to take down Edwards, and Abraham is a categorical punt. I don't have high expectations of 2019 myself, but sky-is-falling nonsense hardly helps the Democratic cause.


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: DaWN on April 23, 2019, 04:11:48 pm
Edwards wins by 3-5, Reeves by 5 and Bevin by 10


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Sestak stands with Drag Queen Story Hour on April 23, 2019, 04:12:21 pm
Edwards wins by 3-5, Reeves by 5 and Bevin by 10

This, but Bevin by 8 instead of 10.


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: ElectionsGuy on April 23, 2019, 05:01:42 pm
KY: Bevin +7
LA: Edwards +10
MS: Reeves +6


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Some of My Best Friends Are Gay on April 23, 2019, 05:23:01 pm
Republicans sweep. Democratic states will elect Republican Governors all the time and it takes exceptional circumstances for Dems to win red state governorships

Edwards will be reelected in Louisiana, mark my words.


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Canis on April 23, 2019, 05:34:31 pm
MS lean R
KY pure tossup from what I've seen
LA Tilt D I'm cautious about this one I think the R's have a really good chance to pick it up feels like a reduced of MO and IN sen where the incumbent only won because of how weak their opponent was last time


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Cory Booker on April 23, 2019, 07:43:29 pm
Tilt D: KY
Tossup LA
Tilt R MS


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Lechasseur on April 24, 2019, 10:45:03 am
MS lean R
KY pure tossup from what I've seen
LA Tilt D I'm cautious about this one I think the R's have a really good chance to pick it up feels like a reduced of MO and IN sen where the incumbent only won because of how weak their opponent was last time

I agree.

I will add though that Edwards is a much stronger incumbent than McCaskill or Donnelly, and this is a gubernatorial race, not a senate race, thus I'd give Edwards a slight advantage.

That being said, he'll still have a hard time because the GOP has a decent nominee in Ralph Abraham (Edwards would be in serious trouble had Kennedy decided to run, on the other hand I'd be pretty confident of Edwards winning reelection had the GOP nominee ended up being Landry), and with such a polarized environment, and the LA Gov election taking place during the Democratic Presidential Primary campaign, this won't be an easy race for Edwards.

I'd agree with KY being a tossup. KY is a very red state, but Bevin is an unpopular governor and the Democrats have some decent candidates running, so who knows what could happen there.

MS on the other hand will most likely be a GOP hold. Tate Reeves is a decent candidate for the GOP, Bryant I believe is a popular governor, and MS is very red, so even though Hood is the best candidate the Democrats could possibly run, MS will probably be too much for them, although Hood has proven time and time again that's he's capable of winning in MS and that's why I'd rank MS Lean R too.


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: LoneStarDem on April 24, 2019, 03:32:14 pm
LA: JBE wins by double digits with 57%.

MS (OPEN): Hood (D) might pull this off, but who knows.

KY: Bevin (R) wins reelection narrowly.


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: For Trump everything, for immigrants the law on April 24, 2019, 03:52:03 pm
KY: Safe R, Bevin wins by 10-12
LA: Lean D, Edwards wins by 4-7
MS: Lean R, Reeves wins by 3-5


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Cory Booker on April 25, 2019, 12:33:13 am
KY: Safe R, Bevin wins by 10-12
LA: Lean D, Edwards wins by 4-7
MS: Lean R, Reeves wins by 3-5

Beshear will WIN


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: For Trump everything, for immigrants the law on April 25, 2019, 02:21:13 am
KY: Safe R, Bevin wins by 10-12
LA: Lean D, Edwards wins by 4-7
MS: Lean R, Reeves wins by 3-5

Beshear will WIN

Thanks, I needed a good laugh.


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: LoneStarDem on April 25, 2019, 06:57:26 am
JBE by double digits with 57%.


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Gravel/Feinstein 2020 on April 25, 2019, 10:02:38 am
Holds for all respective parties


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: MT Treasurer on April 25, 2019, 03:50:53 pm
MS: Tilt D, Hood +2
KY: Tilt R, Bevin +5 (but this oneís really an underrated pick-up opportunity for Democrats)
LA: Likely D, JBE +14

Not buying the "Democrats canít win any of these races because polarization, inelasticity, and Trump rallies" nonsense.


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Frenchrepublican on April 26, 2019, 05:23:34 pm
If democrats are lucky they will gain KY and keep LA but there is no scenario where they take IN and MO in 2020


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Frenchrepublican on April 26, 2019, 05:25:19 pm
As of now I would say
Bevin +5
Reeves +12
JBE +2


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: smoltchanov on April 27, 2019, 12:26:45 am
As of now I would say
Bevin +5
Reeves +12
JBE +2

12? Don't believe. All other- possible.


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on April 27, 2019, 12:50:04 am
As of now I would say
Bevin +5
Reeves +12
JBE +2

12? Don't believe. All other- possible.

Its possible if black turnout is awful but yeah I do see it hard that Jim Hood does 5 points worse than a corrupt black man.


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: Cory Booker on April 27, 2019, 06:47:45 am
KY is not Tilt R, its a tossup


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: 1J on April 27, 2019, 08:11:03 am
As of now I would say
Bevin +5
Reeves +12
JBE +2

12? Don't believe. All other- possible.

Its possible if black turnout is awful but yeah I do see it hard that Jim Hood does 5 points worse than a corrupt black man.

But Espy was acquitted and him being supposedly corrupt didnít stick as a plurality of voters still saw him favorably and Mississippiís polarized nature.


Title: Re: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions
Post by: smoltchanov on April 27, 2019, 08:25:31 am
As of now I would say
Bevin +5
Reeves +12
JBE +2

12? Don't believe. All other- possible.

Its possible if black turnout is awful but yeah I do see it hard that Jim Hood does 5 points worse than a corrupt black man.

But Espy was acquitted and him being supposedly corrupt didnít stick as a plurality of voters still saw him favorably and Mississippiís polarized nature.

Still - 12 is way too much. I could believe 5, but - not 12. Especially - with Hood's proverbial strength with "redneck whites" in North-East of the state...