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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections => Topic started by: Zaybay on April 25, 2019, 08:56:41 am



Title: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: Zaybay on April 25, 2019, 08:56:41 am
https://morningconsult.com/governor-rankings/


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: DaWN on April 25, 2019, 08:58:41 am
It's hilarious how unpopular Bevin is yet he's still going to get re-elected easily. Otherwise good numbers for all governors up in 2019 and 2020. Oh, and Bullock is an idiot if he passes on a senate run with those numbers.

On the other hand, Morning Consult, so maybe best not to analyse too deeply.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: Sir Mohamed on April 25, 2019, 09:01:51 am
Too bad no Dem governors rank higher. It's still so hilarious a GOP governor of the deepest blue state ranks first.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: Gass3268 on April 25, 2019, 09:25:36 am
Ralph Northam is back in the positive range, lol. Also he'll probably still win, but Bevin's not in the best spot to start out his reelection campaign.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: ElectionsGuy on April 25, 2019, 09:54:54 am
It seems like new governors tend to get the benefit of the doubt for their first few months and nobody except hardcore partisans tend to disapprove of non-controversial governors. So I don't think this is too meaningful. I am starting to think Bevin is a little vulnerable though. If Republicans don't take the race seriously I actually think he could lose.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: Gravel/Feinstein 2020 on April 25, 2019, 10:02:18 am
How is Northam even remotely popular?


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on April 25, 2019, 10:10:04 am

Its Virginia and he has the D next to his name.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: Pittsburgh For Kamala on April 25, 2019, 10:12:58 am
53-32% for my man Wolf!


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: Gass3268 on April 25, 2019, 10:29:56 am

He kept his head down and name out of the news. People forget.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: LoneStarDem on April 25, 2019, 10:35:19 am

He kept his head down and name out of the news. People forget.

The VA Dems will still pressure McAuliffe to run for Governor in 2021.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: RINO Tom on April 25, 2019, 10:40:52 am
10/10 most popular are Republicans

7/10 most unpopular are Democrats (and 4 of the bottom 5)

Looks like the Dems need to run Generic Democrat in more races.

It also seems that a lot of voters who wanted a check on Trump/are genuinely put off by the National GOP still are perfectly fine with their LOCAL Republicans running the show in many places.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: henster on April 25, 2019, 02:34:51 pm
Teflon Ralph!


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: President Johnson on April 25, 2019, 02:58:04 pm
Unbeatable Titan Charlie Baker! <3 This guy is so impressive. Also notable that Steve Bullock ranks on top of Democratic governors.

Lol at Ned Lamont, he's already unpopular.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: MT Treasurer on April 25, 2019, 03:46:29 pm
Itís Morning Consult, but people are kidding themselves if they think Bullock wouldnít make MT-SEN at least a Toss-up.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on April 25, 2019, 10:06:44 pm
Bill Lee has a pretty incredible split, with simultaneously having the name recognition for a top 10 approval rating while also having only a 14% disapproval rating.

It wouldn't surprise me if he only gets token opposition in 2022, especially if Trump loses.  It's probably possible that he could match Haslam's 2014 county sweep.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: For Trump everything, for immigrants the law on April 25, 2019, 10:25:24 pm
Bevin may be unpopular, but that doesn't mean Republicans won't vote for him. Just ask Senator Grimes how easy it is to beat an unpopular Republican in Kentucky.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: SvenTC on April 26, 2019, 12:02:40 am
What absolutely gobsmacks me is Laura Kelly's approvals. As someone mentioned before me, it's Morning Consult, but hot damn.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: PSOL on April 26, 2019, 12:04:34 am
Why is Kate Brown in the net negative?


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: MT Treasurer on April 26, 2019, 10:40:33 am
Again, not a very good pollster, but no way KY-GOV is Safe R if Bevinís approval is at 33/52. Heís even less popular than McConnell.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: TML on April 26, 2019, 10:54:35 am
Bevin may be unpopular, but that doesn't mean Republicans won't vote for him. Just ask Senator Grimes how easy it is to beat an unpopular Republican in Kentucky.

To be fair, exit polls on Election Day 2014 had Grimes as even more unpopular than McConnell (-17 vs. even). Grimes also made several tactical blunders during her campaign which contributed to the magnitude of the defeat.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: MT Treasurer on April 26, 2019, 11:03:16 am
Again, not a very good pollster, but no way KY-GOV is Safe R if Bevinís approval is at 33/52. Heís even less popular than McConnell.

McConnell was polling like -30 at this point in 2014 and he won by double digits

McConnell was also running for Senate against an unpopular opponent in a Republican wave year.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: President Johnson on April 28, 2019, 11:54:29 am
Itís Morning Consult, but people are kidding themselves if they think Bullock wouldnít make MT-SEN at least a Toss-up.

I think you're right. I'd still prefer him to be the presidential nominee, but let's not kid ourselfes, this won't happen sadly. He should run for senate and help Democrats to gain the chamber back (in addition to Colorado, Arizona and North Carolina at least). Hope Chuck Schumer makes a call.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: President Johnson on April 28, 2019, 12:05:11 pm
Itís Morning Consult, but people are kidding themselves if they think Bullock wouldnít make MT-SEN at least a Toss-up.

I think you're right. I'd still prefer him to be the presidential nominee, but let's not kid ourselfes, this won't happen sadly. He should run for senate and help Democrats to gain the chamber back (in addition to Colorado, Arizona and North Carolina at least). Hope Chuck Schumer makes a call.

Unfortunately it seems heís more eager to get 1% of the vote (https://www.mtpr.org/post/bullocks-closed-door-event-butte-fuels-presidential-campaign-speculation) in the Iowa caucuses than a decent shot at winnning a Senate seat

Maybe he changes his mind after that? I don't know what Montana filing deadlines for senate races are. Chuck Schumer and Jon Tester should convince him to do it.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: RoboWop on April 28, 2019, 12:30:59 pm
Starting to wonder if unbeatable unstoppable Chucky Baker runs for a third term.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: S019 on April 28, 2019, 12:38:09 pm
He will, the real question is if he wants to challenge Markey or Warren, Markey is very old and Baker os much stronger than Scott Brown, but polarization is a lot higher. If he did successfully pull it off, he would be DOA in 6 years, I could see him staying as Governor, moving to Nantucket and running for that district in a red wave, especially after Keating retires. I doubt, that he wants to be Governor for 30 years, but he can, if he wants, if he wants higher office, is really the real question


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: President Johnson on April 28, 2019, 01:19:10 pm
Starting to wonder if unbeatable unstoppable Chucky Baker runs for a third term.

I wouldn't be surprised. However, I think someone like (then President) Joe Biden could appoint him to the cabinet or an ambassadorship.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: Pittsburgh For Kamala on April 28, 2019, 01:40:28 pm
Laura Kelly with a +23 approval rating overall and only down 3 with Reps. Clearly DOA in 2022 ::)

#AtlasHotTakes


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on April 28, 2019, 02:21:59 pm
Laura Kelly with a +23 approval rating overall and only down 3 with Reps. Clearly DOA in 2022 ::)

#AtlasHotTakes

I mean don't think she is DOA but this is Morning Consult


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: Bagel23 on April 28, 2019, 06:24:11 pm
Bullock is an idiot if he does not run for senate. He might not win, but he would make it close and the GOP would realy have to fight to keep Daines. Meanwhile he provides no value by running for president.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: SvenTC on April 28, 2019, 06:28:08 pm
Laura Kelly with a +23 approval rating overall and only down 3 with Reps. Clearly DOA in 2022 ::)

#AtlasHotTakes

Westerners love incumbents. Just look at Dave "90% Approvals" Freudenthal.

Also, I suspect that this is what happens when the previous governor makes a concerted effort to dump on everyone to the left of Mussolini.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: Sir Mohamed on April 29, 2019, 01:36:50 am
Bullock is an idiot if he does not run for senate. He might not win, but he would make it close and the GOP would realy have to fight to keep Daines. Meanwhile he provides no value by running for president.

I agree. The dude should run for senate rather than for prez, where he has zero chance to get the nod despite being a formidable candidate for the GE. If he can win Daines' seat, Dems have a reasonable path to 50+ senators.


Title: Re: Morning Consult Governor Ratings - Q1 2019
Post by: Zaybay on April 29, 2019, 05:31:46 am
He will, the real question is if he wants to challenge Markey or Warren, Markey is very old and Baker os much stronger than Scott Brown, but polarization is a lot higher. If he did successfully pull it off, he would be DOA in 6 years, I could see him staying as Governor, moving to Nantucket and running for that district in a red wave, especially after Keating retires. I doubt, that he wants to be Governor for 30 years, but he can, if he wants, if he wants higher office, is really the real question

Ask Senator Bill Weld how that went for him.