Atlas Forum

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections => Topic started by: Mizzouian on May 10, 2019, 03:56:50 pm



Title: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: Mizzouian on May 10, 2019, 03:56:50 pm
I actually think itís Hood. I think he has about even odds or better of winning the popular vote in his state unlike most people on Atlas. But heíll still lose anyway since the courts will steal his election from him with the electoral college abomination. Thereís no way Hood wins the most districts in the gubernatorial race even if he wins by a few points.


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: MT Treasurer on May 10, 2019, 03:58:03 pm
JBE obviously, and itís not even close.


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: Pericles on May 10, 2019, 04:04:00 pm
JBE obviously, and itís not even close.


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: MT Treasurer on May 10, 2019, 04:06:42 pm
JBE obviously, and itís not even close.

I thought you were pretty pessimistic about R chances in MS

I think MS is a Tossup/maybe Tilt D, but I still think LA is more winnable for Democrats than MS, if only because JBE is the popular incumbent running for reelection. Like I said though, theyíre both more likely to win than Beshear, if you ask me (thatís not to say that Beshear should be counted out).


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: Politician stands with Sanchez on May 10, 2019, 04:14:15 pm


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: MT Treasurer on May 10, 2019, 04:20:26 pm
JBE obviously, and itís not even close.

I thought you were pretty pessimistic about R chances in MS

I think MS is a Tossup/maybe Tilt D, but I still think LA is more winnable for Democrats than MS, if only because JBE is the popular incumbent running for reelection. Like I said though, theyíre both more likely to win than Beshear, if you ask me (thatís not to say that Beshear should be counted out).

My thinking goes as this: MS has a much higher Democratic floor than the other states and Hood is the only one of the three who has a track record of deep crossover support and easily winning in tough conditions. JBEís solo 2015 win was almost solely due to his opponent being Vitter and the Jindal administartionís unpopularity, so I would hardly call that running in anything as tough as Jim Hoodís been through with a truck driver leading his ticket

Thatís what I figured, but you could just as well argue that Hood has never really won a high-profile race before (although Iím aware that he can still win even if he loses something like 60% of his crossover appeal due to the high D floor and off-year turnout dynamics). I guess it boils down to whether you believe JBEís incumbency advantage matters or not. If LA was an open seat, Iíd agree with you that Hood would have a better chance, and obviously Democrats are more likely to win a Senate race in MS than in LA.


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: Nyvin on May 10, 2019, 04:50:17 pm
If democrats are going to win any of the three...it would be Louisiana.


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: For Trump everything, for immigrants the law on May 10, 2019, 05:06:49 pm
Louisiana, easily. If inelasticity is destiny, why would Hood be any less doomed than JBE? I'm pretty sure a popular incumbent governor will do better than a Democratic challenger in an open race, even if he doesn't end up winning.


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: Cory Booker on May 10, 2019, 05:08:00 pm
JBE probably avoids run-off and wins with 57%


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: SnowLabrador on May 10, 2019, 05:10:07 pm
Easily JBE, but I think he'll lose.


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: Cory Booker on May 10, 2019, 05:13:47 pm
He won't lose, he is ahead in every matchup


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: Lechasseur on May 10, 2019, 06:08:01 pm


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: Ἅιδης on May 10, 2019, 06:30:39 pm
JBE obviously, and itís not even close.

According to the polls does Andy Beshear have the best chances, and it's not even close.


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 10, 2019, 08:46:06 pm
Obviously JBE.


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: Zaybay on May 10, 2019, 08:47:15 pm


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: gracile on May 10, 2019, 08:57:10 pm


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: Ἅιδης on May 10, 2019, 09:18:20 pm

Kentucky: Andy Beshear (D) 48% vs. Matt Bevin (R) 40% vs. undecided 12% (Dec 12Ė15, 2018) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election#Polling_2)

Louisiana: John Bel Edwards (D) 40% vs. Ralph Abraham (R) 36% vs. undecided 24% (Apr 25Ė29, 2019) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Louisiana_gubernatorial_election#General_election)

Mississippi: Jim Hood (D) 44% vs. Tate Reeves (R) 42% vs. undecided 14% (Jan 30 Ė Feb 1, 2019) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Mississippi_gubernatorial_election#Polling_3)


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: gracile on May 10, 2019, 09:33:54 pm
^You really shouldn't take polls at face value - especially for KY where polling in the past has skewed heavily Democratic compared to the final result.


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: smoltchanov on May 11, 2019, 12:24:18 am
JBE. Whether that will be enough - another question...


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: Unconditional Surrender Truman on May 11, 2019, 12:25:00 pm
JBE obviously, and itís not even close.

According to the polls does Andy Beshear have the best chances, and it's not even close.
Governor Conway agrees with this methodology.


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: АndriуValeriovich on May 12, 2019, 01:01:14 am
JBE-Hood-Beshear, but all 3 will win


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: PSOL on May 12, 2019, 08:40:31 am


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: Sestak stands with Drag Queen Story Hour on May 12, 2019, 04:21:01 pm
JBE easily.

Lmao at "but Beshear is up by more in a poll taken a full year out from the election!"


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: Speaker YE on May 12, 2019, 04:38:14 pm


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: Nyvin on May 18, 2019, 05:31:17 pm
The State House districts as electoral college thing in MS (which Hood would surely lose if it holds up in court) only applies if no one has a majority of the statewide vote.  Is there a serious 3rd party candidate running? 

Mississippi doesn't vote third party much,  so the chances of the state house college thing actually affecting the outcome is quite low.


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: Bagel23 on May 18, 2019, 05:45:03 pm
All will lose, JBE least likely to lose, Hood most likely to. Ratings

LA: Strong Lean R, I am a firm believer as of 3 weeks ago or so  that JBE is f$cked

MS: Strong Likely R, Tate Reeves is very underrated as a candidate, and the whole legislature district winning thing too

KY: Likely R, partisanship wins for the worse at the end of the day here


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: Fuzzy Stands With Angel Moms and Sanchez! on May 18, 2019, 05:50:38 pm


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: Sestak stands with Drag Queen Story Hour on May 18, 2019, 07:41:18 pm
JBeshood


Title: Re: Hood or JBE or Beshear
Post by: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on May 18, 2019, 07:44:01 pm
Possibly a chance for not JBE.

Liberal NO D runs due to JBE's position on abortion and splits D vote to a small degree in November resulting in a low turnout runoff in Nov.