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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections => Topic started by: MB on May 13, 2019, 02:04:00 pm



Title: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: MB on May 13, 2019, 02:04:00 pm
With Bernie on top of the ticket. Bernie can win W. Virginia in 2020. Dems have a plurality of voters. Bernie won far more voters than Clinton in 2016 primaries. If one lookat how bad Manchin ran in 2018, it because he a corporate Democrat.

Democrats will win W. Virginia by probably 20-30 in 2020 with Bernie on the thicket. He's pro single payer which is what people there like and want.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: TML on May 13, 2019, 02:16:45 pm
I'm not entirely sure about this prospect. Most registered Democrats in WV are socially conservative, and it may take them some time to shake the narrative of "Democrats want to take away coal jobs with no replacement" which has been fed to them by Republicans.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Cory Booker on May 13, 2019, 02:23:44 pm
BERNIE was only polling well in 2016, in WVA, due to fact Justice was a Democrat and leading the field.  Bernie isn't gonna win the nomination.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Sensitive Soccer Moms Against Impeachment on May 13, 2019, 02:25:11 pm
Itís definitely more likely to flip than GA-PRES, a pro-corporate Democrat would struggle here though.

EDIT: Oh, and WV is one of the most E-L-A-S-T-I-C states in the country, so of course itís possible.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Xing on May 13, 2019, 02:35:39 pm
If Bernie wins the nomination, WV moves to Toss-Up/Tilt D, though AZ/FL/GA/NC would immediately become Titanium R, since all minorities hate Bernie (Twitter told me so!) so they would flock to Trump, obviously.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 13, 2019, 02:40:53 pm
OMG.

First of all, Sanders will NEVER be the Dem nominee for POTUS because it would result in Trump sweeping all 50 states, reducing the Dems to minor political party status.

On WV Governor's Mansion: forget about it! Let the GOP have at it.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: swamiG on May 13, 2019, 02:44:08 pm
OP needs to layoff their TYT binge lol

https://twitter.com/NathanIWinston1/status/1127712075642392576


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: brucejoel99 on May 13, 2019, 03:01:22 pm
MB, are you on ecstasy?



Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Gravel/Feinstein 2020 on May 13, 2019, 03:04:18 pm
Bernie has a lot of appeal here, his friendship with Joe Manchin helps out a lot too (their political views are surprisingly similar). Anyway, white working class populists are dying to get back to the Democratic party, look at 2018! Perhaps a Sanders/Ojeda ticket anyone?? Overall, WV is tilt R; in a close race it could very well flip. Keep your eyes on those Mingo/McDowell county populists on election night. Mark my words.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: brucejoel99 on May 13, 2019, 03:06:06 pm
Bernie has a lot of appeal here, his friendship with Joe Manchin helps out a lot too (their political views are surprisingly similar). Anyway, white working class populists are dying to get back to the Democratic party, look at 2018! Perhaps a Sanders/Ojeda ticket anyone?? Overall, WV is tilt R; in a close race it could very well flip. Keep your eyes on those Mingo/McDowell county populists on election night. Mark my words.

Is this sarcasm or not? Because it's legitimately hard to tell.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Gravel/Feinstein 2020 on May 13, 2019, 03:09:42 pm
Bernie has a lot of appeal here, his friendship with Joe Manchin helps out a lot too (their political views are surprisingly similar). Anyway, white working class populists are dying to get back to the Democratic party, look at 2018! Perhaps a Sanders/Ojeda ticket anyone?? Overall, WV is tilt R; in a close race it could very well flip. Keep your eyes on those Mingo/McDowell county populists on election night. Mark my words.

Is this sarcasm or not? Because it's legitimately hard to tell.


Not sarcasm, if you look at the 2014 Senate - 2016 Gov - 2018 Senate trends, they are quite favorable to the Dems. I would expect them to pick up both houses of state legislature in 2020.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Old School Republican on May 13, 2019, 08:14:33 pm
Itís definitely more likely to flip than GA-PRES, a pro-corporate Democrat would struggle here though.

EDIT: Oh, and WV is one of the most E-L-A-S-T-I-C states in the country, so of course itís possible.

WV is not IA


To answer this question obviously not


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: brucejoel99 on May 13, 2019, 08:53:53 pm
Bernie has a lot of appeal here, his friendship with Joe Manchin helps out a lot too (their political views are surprisingly similar). Anyway, white working class populists are dying to get back to the Democratic party, look at 2018! Perhaps a Sanders/Ojeda ticket anyone?? Overall, WV is tilt R; in a close race it could very well flip. Keep your eyes on those Mingo/McDowell county populists on election night. Mark my words.

Is this sarcasm or not? Because it's legitimately hard to tell.


Not sarcasm, if you look at the 2014 Senate - 2016 Gov - 2018 Senate trends, they are quite favorable to the Dems. I would expect them to pick up both houses of state legislature in 2020.

()


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Gravel/Feinstein 2020 on May 13, 2019, 10:48:22 pm
Bernie has a lot of appeal here, his friendship with Joe Manchin helps out a lot too (their political views are surprisingly similar). Anyway, white working class populists are dying to get back to the Democratic party, look at 2018! Perhaps a Sanders/Ojeda ticket anyone?? Overall, WV is tilt R; in a close race it could very well flip. Keep your eyes on those Mingo/McDowell county populists on election night. Mark my words.

Is this sarcasm or not? Because it's legitimately hard to tell.


Not sarcasm, if you look at the 2014 Senate - 2016 Gov - 2018 Senate trends, they are quite favorable to the Dems. I would expect them to pick up both houses of state legislature in 2020.

()

In an addendum to my previous post, I think the Democrat narrowly dodged a bullet in 2018 with Joe Manchin. Had they nominated Paula Jean-Sweargin, I think she would has at least got Jay Rockefeller numbers, possibly Robert Byrd numbers.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: brucejoel99 on May 13, 2019, 11:21:38 pm
Bernie has a lot of appeal here, his friendship with Joe Manchin helps out a lot too (their political views are surprisingly similar). Anyway, white working class populists are dying to get back to the Democratic party, look at 2018! Perhaps a Sanders/Ojeda ticket anyone?? Overall, WV is tilt R; in a close race it could very well flip. Keep your eyes on those Mingo/McDowell county populists on election night. Mark my words.

Is this sarcasm or not? Because it's legitimately hard to tell.


Not sarcasm, if you look at the 2014 Senate - 2016 Gov - 2018 Senate trends, they are quite favorable to the Dems. I would expect them to pick up both houses of state legislature in 2020.

()

In an addendum to my previous post, I think the Democrat narrowly dodged a bullet in 2018 with Joe Manchin. Had they nominated Paula Jean-Sweargin, I think she would has at least got Jay Rockefeller numbers, possibly Robert Byrd numbers.

Okay, now you're f**king with me.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Gravel/Feinstein 2020 on May 14, 2019, 01:29:34 pm
Bernie has a lot of appeal here, his friendship with Joe Manchin helps out a lot too (their political views are surprisingly similar). Anyway, white working class populists are dying to get back to the Democratic party, look at 2018! Perhaps a Sanders/Ojeda ticket anyone?? Overall, WV is tilt R; in a close race it could very well flip. Keep your eyes on those Mingo/McDowell county populists on election night. Mark my words.

Is this sarcasm or not? Because it's legitimately hard to tell.


Not sarcasm, if you look at the 2014 Senate - 2016 Gov - 2018 Senate trends, they are quite favorable to the Dems. I would expect them to pick up both houses of state legislature in 2020.

()

In an addendum to my previous post, I think the Democrat narrowly dodged a bullet in 2018 with Joe Manchin. Had they nominated Paula Jean-Sweargin, I think she would has at least got Jay Rockefeller numbers, possibly Robert Byrd numbers.

Okay, now you're f**king with me.

I'm not!! Watch some TYT and Cenk Uygur.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: cvparty on May 14, 2019, 02:30:30 pm
yes populists like bernie will win back WV for all eternity


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on May 14, 2019, 04:04:28 pm
Bernie has a lot of appeal here, his friendship with Joe Manchin helps out a lot too (their political views are surprisingly similar). Anyway, white working class populists are dying to get back to the Democratic party, look at 2018! Perhaps a Sanders/Ojeda ticket anyone?? Overall, WV is tilt R; in a close race it could very well flip. Keep your eyes on those Mingo/McDowell county populists on election night. Mark my words.

Is this sarcasm or not? Because it's legitimately hard to tell.


Not sarcasm, if you look at the 2014 Senate - 2016 Gov - 2018 Senate trends, they are quite favorable to the Dems. I would expect them to pick up both houses of state legislature in 2020.

()

In an addendum to my previous post, I think the Democrat narrowly dodged a bullet in 2018 with Joe Manchin. Had they nominated Paula Jean-Sweargin, I think she would has at least got Jay Rockefeller numbers, possibly Robert Byrd numbers.

Okay, now you're f**king with me.

I'm not!! Watch some TYT and Cenk Uygur.
Alright dude, lay off, no way you are serious lmao.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Indy Texas on May 14, 2019, 09:49:45 pm
With Bernie on top of the ticket. Bernie can win W. Virginia in 2020. Dems have a plurality of voters. Bernie won far more voters than Clinton in 2016 primaries. If one lookat how bad Manchin ran in 2018, it because he a corporate Democrat.

Democrats will win W. Virginia by probably 20-30 in 2020 with Bernie on the thicket. He's pro single payer which is what people there like and want.

lolno


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Gravel/Feinstein 2020 on May 14, 2019, 10:50:59 pm
Bernie has a lot of appeal here, his friendship with Joe Manchin helps out a lot too (their political views are surprisingly similar). Anyway, white working class populists are dying to get back to the Democratic party, look at 2018! Perhaps a Sanders/Ojeda ticket anyone?? Overall, WV is tilt R; in a close race it could very well flip. Keep your eyes on those Mingo/McDowell county populists on election night. Mark my words.

Is this sarcasm or not? Because it's legitimately hard to tell.


Not sarcasm, if you look at the 2014 Senate - 2016 Gov - 2018 Senate trends, they are quite favorable to the Dems. I would expect them to pick up both houses of state legislature in 2020.

()

In an addendum to my previous post, I think the Democrat narrowly dodged a bullet in 2018 with Joe Manchin. Had they nominated Paula Jean-Sweargin, I think she would has at least got Jay Rockefeller numbers, possibly Robert Byrd numbers.

Okay, now you're f**king with me.

I'm not!! Watch some TYT and Cenk Uygur.
Alright dude, lay off, no way you are serious lmao.

You got my, in reality the whole WV = secret socialist thing is so easy to mock is because it is one of the most ridiculous things floated on the forum. However, I still think Bernie would do better here than a Kamala Harris or Joe Biden.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: PAK Man on May 15, 2019, 11:51:21 am
The only reason Bernie did so well in the 2016 WV Dem primary was because he wasn't Clinton.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on May 15, 2019, 12:01:10 pm
Not sure if this is parody, but while Bernie will certainly do better than Clinton did in 2016, he'll still lose, get sub-40%, and not win any counties.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on May 15, 2019, 01:53:13 pm
MB, are you on ecstasy?



He's taking the piss out of the guy who made that.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Skunk on May 15, 2019, 02:15:35 pm
Only if the nominee is Michael Dukakis, a proven winner in West Virginia.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Ishan on May 15, 2019, 04:26:21 pm
Only if the nominee is Bill Clinton Michael Dukakis, a proven winner in West Virginia.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: pbrower2a on May 17, 2019, 01:15:39 pm
Why does anyone think that a state that hasn't gone D in a Presidential election since 1996 and has steadily gone R will be a pickup for any Democrat?


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Speaker YE on May 17, 2019, 01:26:33 pm
Why does anyone think that a state that hasn't gone D in a Presidential election since 1996 and has steadily gone R will be a pickup for any Democrat?

This thread is basically a meme.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: swamiG on May 17, 2019, 01:29:54 pm
Only if the nominee is Bill Clinton Michael Dukakis, a proven winner in West Virginia.


Fr tho even Bill Clinton wouldn't get more than like 40% in WV or even AR nowadays


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Ses on May 17, 2019, 01:30:49 pm
Safe 🅱️


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: SnowLabrador on May 17, 2019, 05:34:07 pm
Yes if Manchin runs, no otherwise.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: here2view on May 19, 2019, 08:53:48 pm
Bernie can win this state, but he'll have to pitch "BREAD AND BUTTER" issues to the voters. Many of them are economically liberal, they just don't know it.

I'd highly suggest Bernie goes down to a few good ol' boy coal mines and gets a little dirt on the hands. Nothing like some coal smoot on the old face to get those Bush-Bush-McCain-Romney-Trump voters to reconsider things.

(If you think that last part is insane, read this: http://www.nbcnews.com/id/5461322/ns/politics/t/byrd-tells-kerry-how-win-w-va/#.XOIIvlNKhJU)


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 21, 2019, 08:58:37 pm
Manchin still trolling the WV Governor's Mansion ?


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Cory Booker on May 22, 2019, 02:10:11 pm
Hopefully, Ojeda succeeds him as Senator-elect in 2024


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Politician on May 22, 2019, 04:33:14 pm
No


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Barron on May 22, 2019, 07:36:58 pm
Safe D. Paula Jean Swearengin will defeat Shelley Moore Capito by 50%+.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: KaiserDave on May 22, 2019, 07:52:38 pm
Safe D. Paula Jean Swearengin will defeat Shelley Moore Capito by 50%+.
What? This is nonsense you neoliberal.
Paula Jean Swearengin will get 90% by getting ancestral Dems from coal country (her father was a miner) and students in the state university.
Richard Ojeda will beat Jim Justice through #populism you neoliberal.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Fuzzy Bear on May 27, 2019, 08:48:26 am
Safe D. Paula Jean Swearengin will defeat Shelley Moore Capito by 50%+.
What? This is nonsense you neoliberal.
Paula Jean Swearengin will get 90% by getting ancestral Dems from coal country (her father was a miner) and students in the state university.
Richard Ojeda will beat Jim Justice through #populism you neoliberal.

Is this tongue-in-cheek?

WV shifted to the GOP in 2000 because its nominee, Al Gore, was the poster child of the anti-fossil fuels campaign.  It's as simple as that.  WV is socially conservative, but its social conservatism didn't interfere with it's voting Democratic for the most part.  Even in 1984, Reagan carried WV 55-45, which was only 1 point higher than he carried New York, which Reagan carried 54-46.

The UMW did not endorse a candidate in 2016; this was huge for Trump and the GOP in WV, and contributed to the exaggerated margin Trump won by.  I strongly suspect that the UMW will endorse Biden in 2020.  I also suspect that some of the conservative economics of Trump will not be helpful in WV.  I would not be surprised if the Democrats rebound somewhat in WV, though the hits they've taken will make it tough for them carry state offices they don't currently hold.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: DINGO Joe stands on Sanchez on May 27, 2019, 12:58:45 pm
If by D, you mean Death, then yes, it will be a D pickup as Death will continue to pickup in WV.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Cory Booker on May 27, 2019, 01:09:39 pm
No, only MT, NH, NC are in play in 2020.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Bagel23 on May 27, 2019, 03:02:25 pm
I seriously do think that Trump will do worse in WV than 2016, not by a lot, but visibly worse.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: KaiserDave on May 27, 2019, 03:08:00 pm
Safe D. Paula Jean Swearengin will defeat Shelley Moore Capito by 50%+.
What? This is nonsense you neoliberal.
Paula Jean Swearengin will get 90% by getting ancestral Dems from coal country (her father was a miner) and students in the state university.
Richard Ojeda will beat Jim Justice through #populism you neoliberal.

Is this tongue-in-cheek?

WV shifted to the GOP in 2000 because its nominee, Al Gore, was the poster child of the anti-fossil fuels campaign.  It's as simple as that.  WV is socially conservative, but its social conservatism didn't interfere with it's voting Democratic for the most part.  Even in 1984, Reagan carried WV 55-45, which was only 1 point higher than he carried New York, which Reagan carried 54-46.

The UMW did not endorse a candidate in 2016; this was huge for Trump and the GOP in WV, and contributed to the exaggerated margin Trump won by.  I strongly suspect that the UMW will endorse Biden in 2020.  I also suspect that some of the conservative economics of Trump will not be helpful in WV.  I would not be surprised if the Democrats rebound somewhat in WV, though the hits they've taken will make it tough for them carry state offices they don't currently hold.

I'm totally kidding. Titanium R always.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Bagel23 on May 27, 2019, 03:08:50 pm
Safe D. Paula Jean Swearengin will defeat Shelley Moore Capito by 50%+.
What? This is nonsense you neoliberal.
Paula Jean Swearengin will get 90% by getting ancestral Dems from coal country (her father was a miner) and students in the state university.
Richard Ojeda will beat Jim Justice through #populism you neoliberal.

Is this tongue-in-cheek?

WV shifted to the GOP in 2000 because its nominee, Al Gore, was the poster child of the anti-fossil fuels campaign.  It's as simple as that.  WV is socially conservative, but its social conservatism didn't interfere with it's voting Democratic for the most part.  Even in 1984, Reagan carried WV 55-45, which was only 1 point higher than he carried New York, which Reagan carried 54-46.

The UMW did not endorse a candidate in 2016; this was huge for Trump and the GOP in WV, and contributed to the exaggerated margin Trump won by.  I strongly suspect that the UMW will endorse Biden in 2020.  I also suspect that some of the conservative economics of Trump will not be helpful in WV.  I would not be surprised if the Democrats rebound somewhat in WV, though the hits they've taken will make it tough for them carry state offices they don't currently hold.

I'm totally kidding. Titanium R always.

What do you think the Trump cs Biden margin would be?

I say 66-30.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: KaiserDave on May 27, 2019, 03:51:25 pm
Safe D. Paula Jean Swearengin will defeat Shelley Moore Capito by 50%+.
What? This is nonsense you neoliberal.
Paula Jean Swearengin will get 90% by getting ancestral Dems from coal country (her father was a miner) and students in the state university.
Richard Ojeda will beat Jim Justice through #populism you neoliberal.

Is this tongue-in-cheek?

WV shifted to the GOP in 2000 because its nominee, Al Gore, was the poster child of the anti-fossil fuels campaign.  It's as simple as that.  WV is socially conservative, but its social conservatism didn't interfere with it's voting Democratic for the most part.  Even in 1984, Reagan carried WV 55-45, which was only 1 point higher than he carried New York, which Reagan carried 54-46.

The UMW did not endorse a candidate in 2016; this was huge for Trump and the GOP in WV, and contributed to the exaggerated margin Trump won by.  I strongly suspect that the UMW will endorse Biden in 2020.  I also suspect that some of the conservative economics of Trump will not be helpful in WV.  I would not be surprised if the Democrats rebound somewhat in WV, though the hits they've taken will make it tough for them carry state offices they don't currently hold.

I'm totally kidding. Titanium R always.

What do you think the Trump cs Biden margin would be?

I say 66-30.
That's about right. I think Sanders would be 65-31, maybe 65-30.


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: Fuzzy Bear on May 27, 2019, 04:31:42 pm
Safe D. Paula Jean Swearengin will defeat Shelley Moore Capito by 50%+.
What? This is nonsense you neoliberal.
Paula Jean Swearengin will get 90% by getting ancestral Dems from coal country (her father was a miner) and students in the state university.
Richard Ojeda will beat Jim Justice through #populism you neoliberal.

Is this tongue-in-cheek?

WV shifted to the GOP in 2000 because its nominee, Al Gore, was the poster child of the anti-fossil fuels campaign.  It's as simple as that.  WV is socially conservative, but its social conservatism didn't interfere with it's voting Democratic for the most part.  Even in 1984, Reagan carried WV 55-45, which was only 1 point higher than he carried New York, which Reagan carried 54-46.

The UMW did not endorse a candidate in 2016; this was huge for Trump and the GOP in WV, and contributed to the exaggerated margin Trump won by.  I strongly suspect that the UMW will endorse Biden in 2020.  I also suspect that some of the conservative economics of Trump will not be helpful in WV.  I would not be surprised if the Democrats rebound somewhat in WV, though the hits they've taken will make it tough for them carry state offices they don't currently hold.

I'm totally kidding. Titanium R always.

I probably agree.  It didn't have to be that way, but the Democrats have done all they could to make that worse, and the path back is probably blocked for them at this point.

The sad thing about the Democrats losing WV (and KY, for that matter) is the fact that these states have decent percentages of unionized workers; they are NOT part of the South.  Their voters have been, until recently, extremely elastic.  Even Robert Byrd (D-WV) voted for the 1965 and 1968. 


Title: Re: Will WV be a D pickup?
Post by: decunningham2 on June 01, 2019, 03:18:47 pm
This thread has to be trolling.