Talk Elections

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If you voted for Iowa you're a hack.

Staunch leftist here

Colorado, VA, and WA would flip before IA lol

Iowa will flip to D because rural folks are falling in love with socialism

LOL, MS and SC would flip before WA.

Anyway, IA narrowly, though that's not saying much.

CO is the least likely to flip, in a 2012 climate, IA will flip

IA is more elastic than CO.

CO. Iowa and Ohio are long gone for the dems

Colorado is long gone for the Republicans due to demographic change (fast-growing Mexican-American vote, lots of educated people moving from California, stagnant rural population). Iowa can get hard by anything that hurts rural America because it is one state particularly connected to agribusiness.

I look at the House vote statewide in Iowa, and I don't see a state swinging rapidly R. I see Iowa close to the national average, maybe slightly R (R+2?).

What keeps me from being a hack on this is that I see Donald Trump is an unmitigated disaster as President. Iowa would be voting for a second term of someone like Jeb Bush or Scott Walker. I see the Democratic nominee getting around 300 electoral votes or 375-425 electoral votes this time because Trump is in the area in which he makes things close or gambles and loses. (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio are going to vote together either for or against Trump).     

Colorado


But I would be stunned, if either came close to flipping

Can the very enlightened posters saying Colorado please tell me where the votes for Donald Trump are coming from? (Presumably the same place all of their other analysis comes from which is their asses?) Are the :) moderate Jeff Co suburbanites :) going to get amnesia and forgot that they voted for a progressive governor who ran on guaranteed kindergarten to vote for Donald Trump?

IA isn't likely to flip but the votes are definitely there for the right candidate. "Three Democratic Reps!" is a meme at this point but if you're comparing Iowa to a state where Democrats annihilated Republicans statewide en route to a solid trifecta then it obviously counts for something.

Democrats actually won the House popular vote in Iowa last year, and they won it in Colorado decisively, along with just about every other race in the state. Colorado is long gone for the GOP. Iowa is still pretty damn elastic indeed, and while I don't think it's necessarily all that likely to abandon Trump, it's far from impossible (just look at the Trump approval rating in the state via Morning Consult), and far more likely than Colorado suddenly embracing Trump. It's probably somewhere in the second tier of states I think could flip, behind MI, WI, PA, and AZ but above OH, NV, and TX. Can't decide how to order IA, FL, NH, and GA but it's in that tier. Theoretically Florida at least should probably be more likely to flip, but I've just given up trying to predict that damn state.

Iowa is much more elastic than Colorado and Democrats didn't get wiped out there in 2018 like Republicans did in Colorado, so the answer is obvious.

Both rather unlikely, but Iowa is somewhat more plausible. I feel like there's a clearer path that's been set out.

Iowa is a far more elastic state historically speaking (look at 1988 in particular)

Iowa (sane)

Obviously, Iowa

There is not only nowhere for Trump to gain votes but a vast and infinite everywhere for Democrats. Colorado will hurtle towards one-party state status pretty quickly. I don't get how people didn't see it happen first with California, then Washington state, then Oregon, then New Mexico. Colorado is so far underway that it's pretty much a done deal. Nevada will be the next domino to fall. Then Arizona... The demographic changes going on in the West should be a canary in a coal mine for the GOP.

Now, this demographic trend, while weaker in Iowa and counteracted by the rural white transition to the GOP, is still strong enough that a candidate like Sanders who could max out the urban, educated, and diverse vote that exists and win over enough white working class voters to squeeze by, could win in Iowa. Obama did it twice, and Democrats haven't really put out a candidate of his stature in a long time in Iowa.

Yeah, every state will trend D

Iowa, because I'm sane.


Not saying it's likely (hell, Trump may even exceed his Ohio margin yet again) but Colorado is pretty much gone.  Iowa is still very much a swing state (even if most of the Ds running would lose it decisively) , Colorado pretty much isn't.

Colorado.

We're talking about Trump +9 with a majority vs Clinton +5 without a majority right? And in Iowa's case, the trend is greater for Republicans than Colorado is for Democrats. I don't know why that's so insane to presume.

But this all depends on what people think will happen. If most people believe 2020 is going to be some Democratic blowout (+7-10 points in the PV), then yeah, Iowa is more likely to flip.

Iowa could get much closer than it was in 16 with Trump performing similarly in the PV and even winning in the general, it wouldn't take a 2008 style blowout for Iowa to turn blue.

His near 10 point margin isn't set in stone, his trade policies affect people in agribuisness, and HRC was a poor fit for the Midwest.  I say Trump wins it 3-6 points whether or not he wins the GE. 

Colorado isn't going to get better for Trump than the 4.8% he lost it by in 16.  The D's floor in the state is higher than the R's floor in Iowa. 

I gotta go with Iowa.

IA. Neither will flip though

Colorado. Cory Gardner will help Trump.

LOL What?

That would be like saying Obama could flip WV in 2012 because Manchin would help him there...and Gardner is already likely to lose anyway.

Y’all have got to be kidding me if this is actually up for debate. The only correct answer here is IA. A Lean R state going through a farm crisis is way more likely to flip than a Likely D state that just elected a gay governor by double digits.

Did you just compare Colorado to West Virginia?

Well gee, IA went for trump by almost 10 pts while CO went to Clinton by almost 5, literally double the margin, I think there's room for the Democratic candidate to improve in IA with farming there taking a beating but a 10% swing? Not likely. CO isn't either but it's more likely by the numbers.

The only way Washington flips Republican in 2020 is if by some miracle Kshama Sawant is the Democratic nominee. And if that were to ever happen, the Democrats would have a lot bigger problems than Washington going red

That question's tricky. 2016 results would point to Colorado, 2018 results would point to Iowa.

I would go with Colorado though as I do believe the 2020 results will be more similar to 2016 than 2018.

How does a D+5 victory for the candidate who did the worst job of turning out the Democratic base in decades suggest that Colorado is likely to flip? It shows that Dems have a high floor there.

Seriously how are you going to get 130K voters who turned out for an anemic Clinton campaign against an unknown quantity in Trump to flip to Trump the known quantity against a (probably) decent opponent?

Iowa. It voted majority D in the overall election of House members in 2018, suggesting that Iowa can revert to its pre-2014 pattern as a legitimate swing state.

Iowa for sure.