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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections => Topic started by: swamiG on May 16, 2019, 03:33:42 pm



Title: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: swamiG on May 16, 2019, 03:33:42 pm
Here are the states that have managed to elect a Democratic governor during the FL Dems' 20 year dry spell:

()

What a national embarrassment.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 16, 2019, 03:39:22 pm
Here are the states that have managed to elect a Democratic governor during the FL Dems' 20 year dry spell:

()

What a national embarrassment.

The FL Dems died with then-FL Governor Lawton Chiles (D) on December 12th, 1998 & they haven't been the same ever since.

With FL Governor Ronald DeSantis (R) likely to win reelection very overwhelmingly (he might crack 60%) in 2022, I doubt the FL Dems will ever get the FL Governor's Mansion back in 2026 if Fried runs for it.



Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: swamiG on May 16, 2019, 03:42:05 pm
Lol I highly doubt DeSantis wins by that much. Agreed that Fried might be their best shot, even though we'd need to wait till 2026


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Xeuma on May 16, 2019, 04:17:34 pm
Since 1990, Ohio Democrats have elected one governor against an incumbent with a literal 5% approval rating in 2006. Here's the map of states that have elected more than one Democratic governor (I counted re-elections as a second election).

()


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Frenchrepublican on May 16, 2019, 04:19:02 pm
Here are the states that have managed to elect a Democratic governor during the FL Dems' 20 year dry spell:

()

What a national embarrassment.

The FL Dems died with then-FL Governor Lawton Chiles (D) on December 12th, 1998 & they haven't been the same ever since.

With FL Governor Ronald DeSantis (R) likely to win reelection very overwhelmingly (he might crack 60%) in 2022, I doubt the FL Dems will ever get the FL Governor's Mansion back in 2026 if Fried runs for it.



60% is a bit too much.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: swamiG on May 16, 2019, 04:28:08 pm
Since 1990, Ohio Democrats have elected one governor against an incumbent with a literal 5% approval rating in 2006. Here's the map of states that have elected more than one Democratic governor (I counted re-elections as a second election).

()

Funny how the media holds Ohio and Florida to perennial swing state status even though they're essentially one-party states at the local level. Difficult to say which state will elect a Democratic governor first, I'd say Ohio because no reasonable betting man should ever bet on the travesty known as the FL Dems


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Frenchrepublican on May 16, 2019, 04:31:57 pm
Since 1990, Ohio Democrats have elected one governor against an incumbent with a literal 5% approval rating in 2006. Here's the map of states that have elected more than one Democratic governor (I counted re-elections as a second election).

()

Funny how the media holds Ohio and Florida to perennial swing state status even though they're essentially one-party states at the local level. Difficult to say which state will elect a Democratic governor first, I'd say Ohio because no reasonable betting man should ever bet on the travesty known as the FL Dems

Concerning Ohio, the big problem is that the D bench has been destroyed over the past decade, besides Mike DeWine will likely run again in 2022 and will be reelected. 


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: swamiG on May 16, 2019, 05:04:52 pm
The next viable nominee would have to be a congressman, I think. Like Tim Ryan if he doesn't get elected elected President (LOL)


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 16, 2019, 05:15:19 pm
I should note that the NV Dems had a similar problem until Sisolak finally ended 20 years of GOP dominance in Carson City in 2018.



Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Moscow Mitch on May 16, 2019, 08:02:31 pm
Here are the states that have managed to elect a Democratic governor during the FL Dems' 20 year dry spell:

()

What a national embarrassment.

It looks like 1998 was the last hurrah of the old Dixiecrat South, with Dems winning a lot of the Deep South.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: RoboWop on May 16, 2019, 08:14:44 pm
60% is probably too much for DeSantis '22 if Trump is still president, but I can see it as possible with a Democrat.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: swamiG on May 16, 2019, 08:58:38 pm
Here are the states that have managed to elect a Democratic governor during the FL Dems' 20 year dry spell:

()

What a national embarrassment.

It looks like 1998 was the last hurrah of the old Dixiecrat South, with Dems winning a lot of the Deep South.

This year will test whether it痴 gone for good


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Let Dogs Survive on May 16, 2019, 11:33:23 pm
In fairness, two of those years were GOP waves [which Florida was LEFT of the nation on!], three of those years had the GOP Pres have certain ties to the state that gave them an advantage inherently.

Truthfully the only one to be ashamed of is 2006, that was a Dem Wave and the vote was more than +3 R...pretty sure Crist won that won bigly.

And I guess 2018 was a disappointment...but it was 30,000 votes from breaking the +3R ceiling (in contrast, Nelson ran behind by double digits compared to the Senate vote)


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: swamiG on May 17, 2019, 12:20:23 am
In fairness, two of those years were GOP waves [which Florida was LEFT of the nation on!], three of those years had the GOP Pres have certain ties to the state that gave them an advantage inherently.

Truthfully the only one to be ashamed of is 2006, that was a Dem Wave and the vote was more than +3 R...pretty sure Crist won that won bigly.

And I guess 2018 was a disappointment...but it was 30,000 votes from breaking the +3R ceiling (in contrast, Nelson ran behind by double digits compared to the Senate vote)

Nope. No more excuses from the supposed swing state party whose only statewide position is the Almighty Agricultural Commissioner position.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 17, 2019, 06:57:22 am
Big question is whether it's time for the Dems to leave FL & move to NC, TX, etc., ?


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Smaug on May 17, 2019, 11:11:10 pm
The GOP margins have shrunk in every GOV Election since 2002 in FL. The urban areas have turned much bluer while rural and Retirement communites have turned strongly Republican.

2002: Jeb! +12.8%
()
2006: Crist +7.1%
()
2010: Scott +1.2%
()
2014: Scott +1%
()
2018: DeSantis +0.4%
()


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 18, 2019, 09:42:20 am
Jeb was the last FL Governor to win by double digits in 2002.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Fuzzy Stands With Angel Moms and Sanchez! on May 18, 2019, 10:41:58 am
Jeb and Crist (when he was a Republican) were both personally popular and well-connected.  Rick Scott never enjoyed personal popularity, and defeated Nelson only because Nelson was old, tired, ran a poor campaign, and whose personal popularity died with those folks who crossed party lines to vote for him in Brevard and Indian River Counties back in the day.

DeSantis is making all the right moves, and is proving to be exceptionally popular.  I believe he may well win re-election with over 55% of the vote, and I believe he will cause serious challengers to opt out of the 2022 FL Governor's race.  (Such a result would not be a reflection of where FL is at as much as personal approval of the candidates.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: TDAS04 on May 18, 2019, 10:57:10 am
Why did McBride do so well in North Florida?


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: gracile on May 18, 2019, 11:08:39 am
Why did McBride do so well in North Florida?

Probably because the ancestral Dems hadn't completely left the party at the down-ballot level yet.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: SunriseAroundTheWorld on May 18, 2019, 11:38:03 am
I'm a big DeSantis guy and had been since at least 2014/2015, but its too early to coronate him for a 2nd term.

I hope he continues to do well and continues to be a smart and pragmatic conservative, but I don't like making self-assured statements about political figures until after the fact.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: President Johnson on May 18, 2019, 12:49:46 pm
Yeah, this is an embarrassment. 2018 was definitely winnable, but the Democrats decided to put up a candidate, despite good intentions, out of step with the state. Graham would have won, Levine probably as well. And those pointing out Nelson lost as well, this is true, but he didn't run a strong campaign and Rick Scott, I admit, did so. 2022 will be much tougher, especially if a Democrat is sitting in the Oval Office. 2026 can go either way, obviously too soon to tell.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Frenchrepublican on May 18, 2019, 01:20:02 pm
Jeb and Crist (when he was a Republican) were both personally popular and well-connected.  Rick Scott never enjoyed personal popularity, and defeated Nelson only because Nelson was old, tired, ran a poor campaign, and whose personal popularity died with those folks who crossed party lines to vote for him in Brevard and Indian River Counties back in the day.

DeSantis is making all the right moves, and is proving to be exceptionally popular.  I believe he may well win re-election with over 55% of the vote, and I believe he will cause serious challengers to opt out of the 2022 FL Governor's race.  (Such a result would not be a reflection of where FL is at as much as personal approval of the candidates.

Concerning the 2018 senatorial race, Scott saw a surge in term of popularity after 2016 and it was clearly a major factor in the loss of Nelson


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: swamiG on May 18, 2019, 01:36:56 pm
Hell I知 starting to feel that TX (if Abbot decides against another term) and SD (if Sutton runs again) might be more likely to flip before FL. I think DeSantis will do much better in 2022 with Rubio also on the ballot


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: TDAS04 on May 18, 2019, 02:26:42 pm
Why did McBride do so well in North Florida?

Probably because the ancestral Dems hadn't completely left the party at the down-ballot level yet.

Makes sense, but Buddy McKay only won the typically liberal North Florida counties four years earlier.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: swamiG on May 18, 2019, 05:29:29 pm
Hell I知 starting to feel that TX (if Abbot decides against another term) and SD (if Sutton runs again) might be more likely to flip before FL. I think DeSantis will do much better in 2022 with Rubio also on the ballot

This.  If Trump is still in office, SD and a TX open seat will flip (Abbott would get a 3rd term, but only by 5 or so), but DeSantis will be completely fine barring Great Depression 2.0.

Yeah. Isn't that sad?


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 18, 2019, 09:40:33 pm
Hell I知 starting to feel that TX (if Abbot decides against another term) and SD (if Sutton runs again) might be more likely to flip before FL. I think DeSantis will do much better in 2022 with Rubio also on the ballot

TX is NOT flipping back to the Dems anytime soon. Abbott is running for reelection in 2022 & he'll win by double digits (20 percentage points).


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: swamiG on May 18, 2019, 09:57:38 pm
Hell I知 starting to feel that TX (if Abbot decides against another term) and SD (if Sutton runs again) might be more likely to flip before FL. I think DeSantis will do much better in 2022 with Rubio also on the ballot

TX is NOT flipping back to the Dems anytime soon. Abbott is running for reelection in 2022 & he'll win by double digits (20 percentage points).

He only beat a lackluster candidate by 13 points last year though. I think the days of Republicans winning TX by 20+ points are over.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Frenchrepublican on May 19, 2019, 08:12:49 am
Hell I知 starting to feel that TX (if Abbot decides against another term) and SD (if Sutton runs again) might be more likely to flip before FL. I think DeSantis will do much better in 2022 with Rubio also on the ballot

TX is NOT flipping back to the Dems anytime soon. Abbott is running for reelection in 2022 & he'll win by double digits (20 percentage points).

He only beat a lackluster candidate by 13 points last year though. I think the days of Republicans winning TX by 20+ points are over.

Valdez did better than Obama


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: The love that set me free on May 19, 2019, 09:26:06 am
Since 1990, Ohio Democrats have elected one governor against an incumbent with a literal 5% approval rating in 2006.
Taft was not running in 2006.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 19, 2019, 09:27:19 am
Hell I知 starting to feel that TX (if Abbot decides against another term) and SD (if Sutton runs again) might be more likely to flip before FL. I think DeSantis will do much better in 2022 with Rubio also on the ballot

TX is NOT flipping back to the Dems anytime soon. Abbott is running for reelection in 2022 & he'll win by double digits (20 percentage points).

He only beat a lackluster candidate by 13 points last year though. I think the days of Republicans winning TX by 20+ points are over.

Valdez did better than Obama

You can blame the Cruz & O'Rourke US Senate contest for that.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: here2view on May 19, 2019, 09:33:52 am
It's pathetic that Democrats won TWO Governor elections in WYOMING during that time.

The Florida Democratic Party is a disgrace, which was exemplified by Bill Nelson losing in a D+8.6 year.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Roll Roons on May 19, 2019, 09:39:56 am
It's pathetic that Democrats won TWO Governor elections in WYOMING during that time.

The Florida Democratic Party is a disgrace, which was exemplified by Bill Nelson losing in a D+8.6 year.

Also won two in Oklahoma. And Tennessee. And Arkansas. Not to mention three in Kentucky and Kansas.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 19, 2019, 12:07:19 pm
It's pathetic that Democrats won TWO Governor elections in WYOMING during that time.

The Florida Democratic Party is a disgrace, which was exemplified by Bill Nelson losing in a D+8.6 year.

Also won two in Oklahoma. And Tennessee. And Arkansas. Not to mention three in Kentucky and Kansas.

The AR Dems since the Clinton's left on December 12th, 1992:

1994: Tucker (D)
2006: Bebee (D)
2010: Bebee (D)



Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Xeuma on May 19, 2019, 03:29:37 pm
Since 1990, Ohio Democrats have elected one governor against an incumbent with a literal 5% approval rating in 2006.
Taft was not running in 2006.

That's what I get for speaking without looking it up. Yep, the 2006 GOP nominee was Ken Blackwell and they were coming off of Taft and his 5% approval rating.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 19, 2019, 03:31:47 pm
Since 1990, Ohio Democrats have elected one governor against an incumbent with a literal 5% approval rating in 2006.
Taft was not running in 2006.

That's what I get for speaking without looking it up. Yep, the 2006 GOP nominee was Ken Blackwell and they were coming off of Taft and his 5% approval rating.

I've heard that Blackwell really wanted to run for the OH Governor's Residence in 1998, but the OH GOP pushed him to go for OH Secretary of State instead.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: swamiG on May 19, 2019, 04:36:39 pm
It's pathetic that Democrats won TWO Governor elections in WYOMING during that time.

The Florida Democratic Party is a disgrace, which was exemplified by Bill Nelson losing in a D+8.6 year.

Tbh they need to disband over this shyte record and have a new left-leaning party like MN's DFL (easily one of the best-run state parties in the country) take over


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: sjoyce on May 19, 2019, 06:40:35 pm
Tbh they need to disband over this shyte record and have a new left-leaning party like MN's DFL (easily one of the best-run state parties in the country) take over

At least we haven't elected a Democrat who turned out to be a Klansman. Or a sex criminal.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: swamiG on May 19, 2019, 10:20:55 pm
Tbh they need to disband over this shyte record and have a new left-leaning party like MN's DFL (easily one of the best-run state parties in the country) take over

At least we haven't elected a Democrat who turned out to be a Klansman. Or a sex criminal.

Ralph Northam is not a Klansman. And I'm not going to defend Fairfax for what he's being accused of, but the LG of VA is nothing but a ribbon cutter. Either way, these two men won't have a political future after 2021.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Let Dogs Survive on May 19, 2019, 11:27:11 pm
It's pathetic that Democrats won TWO Governor elections in WYOMING during that time.

The Florida Democratic Party is a disgrace, which was exemplified by Bill Nelson losing in a D+8.6 year.

It wasn't D+8.6 at the gubernatorial level though, it was D+2.1...and anything less than D+3 just means the GOP holds on per usual.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on May 19, 2019, 11:29:40 pm
It's pathetic that Democrats won TWO Governor elections in WYOMING during that time.

The Florida Democratic Party is a disgrace, which was exemplified by Bill Nelson losing in a D+8.6 year.

Tbh they need to disband over this shyte record and have a new left-leaning party like MN's DFL (easily one of the best-run state parties in the country) take over

The Minnesota DFL is DFLINO. The Farmer part is completely gone and the labor part is quickly following.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Fuzzy Stands With Angel Moms and Sanchez! on May 27, 2019, 09:08:31 am
Jeb and Crist (when he was a Republican) were both personally popular and well-connected.  Rick Scott never enjoyed personal popularity, and defeated Nelson only because Nelson was old, tired, ran a poor campaign, and whose personal popularity died with those folks who crossed party lines to vote for him in Brevard and Indian River Counties back in the day.

DeSantis is making all the right moves, and is proving to be exceptionally popular.  I believe he may well win re-election with over 55% of the vote, and I believe he will cause serious challengers to opt out of the 2022 FL Governor's race.  (Such a result would not be a reflection of where FL is at as much as personal approval of the candidates.

Concerning the 2018 senatorial race, Scott saw a surge in term of popularity after 2016 and it was clearly a major factor in the loss of Nelson

Yes, he did.  There were major hurricanes that hit the state in 2016 and 2017, which gave Scott the opportunity to exhibit his crisis leadership skills, and he exhibited them well.  Such opportunities caused Scott to be able to show himself as a compassionate and decisive leader, unifying people behind his leadership, and giving him, in the minds of even voters that don't like him, a redeeming quality.

Scott projected a calm, steady, but firm hand on the wheel during Florida's hurricanes, a time which gives Florida's Governor a lot of media face time.  It put him on stronger footing versus Nelson, who ran a poor campaign, and appeared to be not just old, but tired as well (and the victim of some really bad plastic surgery).  Supporters of Biden ought to take heed of Nelson's fate when considering "electability" as Nelson is the same age as Biden.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Tekken_Guy on May 27, 2019, 05:31:24 pm
Debbie Stabenow had many of the same problems Nelson had and she won. Nelson would have won handily if Scott wasn稚 his opponent. People are always making it out to be that Scott 堵ot lucky. Scott was a popular governor known for his leadership after hurricanes and mass shootings, while Nelson was a faceless senator only known for being the Florida senator who wasn稚 Marco Rubio.

Had he lost, Scott would have just joined the likes of Scott Walker,, Rick Snyder, and Paul LePage as 2010s Republican governors the country wants to forget about. His win however puts him in prime position to go after the presidency in 2024.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: swamiG on May 28, 2019, 12:00:19 am
Debbie Stabenow had many of the same problems Nelson had and she won. Nelson would have won handily if Scott wasn稚 his opponent. People are always making it out to be that Scott 堵ot lucky. Scott was a popular governor known for his leadership after hurricanes and mass shootings, while Nelson was a faceless senator only known for being the Florida senator who wasn稚 Marco Rubio.

Had he lost, Scott would have just joined the likes of Scott Walker,, Rick Snyder, and Paul LePage as 2010s Republican governors the country wants to forget about. His win however puts him in prime position to go after the presidency in 2024.

Agreed. Rick Scott was arguably the star recruit of the NRSC last year and I was very worried that the FL Dems were going to blow Nelson痴 seat when he announced.

Now if only I could hear anything more than cricket chirps coming from the DSCC for next year.. We Dems honestly deserve to get owned by Cocaine Mitch until at least 2026 if we can稚 even convince at least a handful of the 420,069 Dems running for the presidency to pivot and run for senate instead.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Pandaguineapig on May 28, 2019, 12:18:26 am
The problem for the democratic party in Florida for the next couple of cycles is that their bench has been completely wiped out, with only Fried and Stephanie Murphy constituting strong statewide candidates. Patrick Murphy has become a joke and the sheen has worn off Gillum


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: ajc0918 on May 28, 2019, 09:12:59 am
The problem for the democratic party in Florida for the next couple of cycles is that their bench has been completely wiped out, with only Fried and Stephanie Murphy constituting strong statewide candidates. Patrick Murphy has become a joke and the sheen has worn off Gillum

Fried came out of nowhere and won statewide. Dems have a fine bench in the Central Florida Mayors and their congressional delegation.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on May 28, 2019, 10:43:55 am
The problem for the democratic party in Florida for the next couple of cycles is that their bench has been completely wiped out, with only Fried and Stephanie Murphy constituting strong statewide candidates. Patrick Murphy has become a joke and the sheen has worn off Gillum

Fried came out of nowhere and won statewide. Dems have a fine bench in the Central Florida Mayors and their congressional delegation.

Also, I think the importance of having a "bench" is overrated in general, and especially in Beltway Media and on sites like this one: no one had ever heard of Doug Jones before 2017, and if you look at the background of most current U.S. senators, most were U.S. Reps, mayors, or state legislators before, of which the FL Dems still have plenty.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: swamiG on May 28, 2019, 01:20:01 pm
The problem for the democratic party in Florida for the next couple of cycles is that their bench has been completely wiped out, with only Fried and Stephanie Murphy constituting strong statewide candidates. Patrick Murphy has become a joke and the sheen has worn off Gillum

Fried came out of nowhere and won statewide. Dems have a fine bench in the Central Florida Mayors and their congressional delegation.

Also, I think the importance of having a "bench" is overrated in general, and especially in Beltway Media and on sites like this one: no one had ever heard of Doug Jones before 2017, and if you look at the background of most current U.S. senators, most were U.S. Reps, mayors, or state legislators before, of which the FL Dems still have plenty.

Yes. The problem isn't with the "bench." The problem is with this godforsaken state party, has there even been any major restructuring going on with the FL Dems since the humiliation of 2018?


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 28, 2019, 03:56:32 pm
It might be best for the FL Dems to build the party with FL Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried (D) leading the helm.

I can see her running for the FL Governor's Mansion in 2026 (assuming DeSantis wins the Presidency in 2024), though she'll have go up against Nunez.



Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Pandaguineapig on May 30, 2019, 04:37:24 pm
after the news of Gillum's campaign being under federal investigation, I think it would be fair to say the democrats won't be looking towards him in 2022 (Though it was already unlikely he could beat Desantis or Rubio)


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: swamiG on May 30, 2019, 05:26:11 pm
after the news of Gillum's campaign being under federal investigation, I think it would be fair to say the democrats won't be looking towards him in 2022 (Though it was already unlikely he could beat Desantis or Rubio)

The night Gwen Graham narrowly lost to him in the primary is when I knew the FL Dems dry spell would live on for at least another 4 years. Only later when the inaccurate af polling gave Gillum big leads for literally months did I give him the edge. He壇 lose decisively in a rematch with DeSantis and maybe even by double digits against Rubio


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 30, 2019, 05:55:42 pm
Is Gillum going to federal prison if this investigation continues to drag out & expand ? I believe it's safe to say his political career (or whatever is left of it) is OVER.



Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: UncleSam on May 31, 2019, 11:54:42 pm
What I知 still puzzled by is why Gillum polled so well (and so much better than Nelson).


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: swamiG on June 01, 2019, 02:47:35 am
What I知 still puzzled by is why Gillum polled so well (and so much better than Nelson).

I still lose sleep over this.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Lechasseur on June 01, 2019, 03:38:20 am
Jeb and Crist (when he was a Republican) were both personally popular and well-connected.

Did Crist win in 2006 despite the D wave and Nelson winning reelection in a landslide thanks to his and Jeb Bush's popularity or was Davis also a weak candidate?


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Lechasseur on June 01, 2019, 03:45:04 am
Yeah, this is an embarrassment. 2018 was definitely winnable, but the Democrats decided to put up a candidate, despite good intentions, out of step with the state. Graham would have won, Levine probably as well. And those pointing out Nelson lost as well, this is true, but he didn't run a strong campaign and Rick Scott, I admit, did so. 2022 will be much tougher, especially if a Democrat is sitting in the Oval Office. 2026 can go either way, obviously too soon to tell.

Agreed, and tbh I think Gillum pulled Nelson down tbh. Had the Democrats won the governor's mansion, Nelson would still be a senator imo (he actually had a higher percentage of the vote than Gillum did).

after the news of Gillum's campaign being under federal investigation, I think it would be fair to say the democrats won't be looking towards him in 2022 (Though it was already unlikely he could beat Desantis or Rubio)

The night Gwen Graham narrowly lost to him in the primary is when I knew the FL Dems dry spell would live on for at least another 4 years.

Same. I think I was one of the few people on here that correctly predicted that Gillum would lose. I actually thought Abrams was more likely to win in GA than Gillum was in FL (at the end Abrams did "worse" in terms of raw share of the vote but at anyrate ran a very a good campaign unlike Gillum who I felt would lose).


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Fuzzy Stands With Angel Moms and Sanchez! on June 01, 2019, 07:09:12 am
Jeb and Crist (when he was a Republican) were both personally popular and well-connected.

Did Crist win in 2006 despite the D wave and Nelson winning reelection in a landslide thanks to his and Jeb Bush's popularity or was Davis also a weak candidate?

Crist was, very much, a moderate Republican who had strong support with law enforcement.  He was NOT the "conservative" candidate, and had a surprisingly moderate record as Attorney General.

Davis was a weak candidate, and Nelson won because Katherine Harris was a far weaker candidate against Nelson.  Harris was almost disavowed by Jeb Bush, who was trying to step away from the fact that Harris was the person who was responsible for certifying W as the winner of FL while serving as Secretary of State.



Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: LoneStarDem on June 01, 2019, 10:34:55 am
FL Dems need to unite behind FL Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried (D) in 2026.

1.) Trump will be long gone by then.

2.) No US Senate contest.



Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: swamiG on June 01, 2019, 11:43:32 am
after the news of Gillum's campaign being under federal investigation, I think it would be fair to say the democrats won't be looking towards him in 2022 (Though it was already unlikely he could beat Desantis or Rubio)

The night Gwen Graham narrowly lost to him in the primary is when I knew the FL Dems dry spell would live on for at least another 4 years.

Same. I think I was one of the few people on here that correctly predicted that Gillum would lose. I actually thought Abrams was more likely to win in GA than Gillum was in FL (at the end Abrams did "worse" in terms of raw share of the vote but at anyrate ran a very a good campaign unlike Gillum who I felt would lose).

I wasn't that active on Atlas back then, but if I recall correctly after Gillum won the primary folks here were generally saying that this would boost DeSantis. It was only after polling almost always had Gillum in the lead did people here end up giving Gillum the major edge.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: decunningham2 on June 01, 2019, 03:09:14 pm
Is Gillum going to federal prison if this investigation continues to drag out & expand ? I believe it's safe to say his political career (or whatever is left of it) is OVER.



Even if he wasn't going to jail it's pretty apparent Democrats should never nominate him for any office ever again


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: mcmikk on June 17, 2019, 10:42:49 pm
Something I致e always wondered is: why do the FL Dems in particular suck so bad? FL Dems constantly choke in elections and I always hear how much they suck, but is there a particular reason why they do so much worse than other swing state Democratic parties. Anyone care to inform me?


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Beet on June 17, 2019, 10:47:11 pm
They just got really unlucky.
In 2018, their candidate would have won but got hit with the FBI bug right before the election.
In 2014, they had a good candidate but it was just a heavy GOP year.
In 2010, same thing -- good candidate, heavy GOP year. Would have won a neutral year.
In 2006, the GOP candidate ran very close to the center and so overcame a bad year.
In 2002, it was the Bush era.

Generally Im not a fan of idpol, but Florida is one area where the Dems have not done a good job of Hispanic outreach compared to the GOP, they barely have any Latinx electeds & almost never run them for statewide office. They are also losing WWC who used to vote for them. Finally, they are losing seniors who used to vote for them (the greatest generation turning into boomers). With these 3 triple blows it's just enough to keep the GOP in the majority statewide.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Skunk on June 17, 2019, 10:49:28 pm
Something I致e always wondered is: why do the FL Dems in particular suck so bad? FL Dems constantly choke in elections and I always hear how much they suck, but is there a particular reason why they do so much worse than other swing state Democratic parties. Anyone care to inform me?
I imagine it just has to do with the Democratic base in Florida being predominantly young voters and Hispanics, obviously this could describe other states too but the fact that Cubans in Florida are considerably more Republican-leaning than Hispanic voters in other states and the fact that youth turnout can be cancelled out by the growing retiree population, means that Florida Democrats are able to keep it close but can't quite seem to win.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Ilhan Apologist on June 21, 2019, 12:28:21 pm
What I知 still puzzled by is why Gillum polled so well (and so much better than Nelson).

I still lose sleep over this.

Yeah, this. Really makes me wonder: WAS the Bradley effect a thing in that race?


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Let Dogs Survive on June 21, 2019, 02:33:54 pm
What I知 still puzzled by is why Gillum polled so well (and so much better than Nelson).

Gillum actually ran a campaign, Nelson didn't.

Unfortunately, DeSantis was a good campaigner too. Adam Putnam would've lost, thanks to not being Trumpy-enough.

Oh, and Gwen Graham probably would've figured out how to do worse than 0.4 given how lackluster her primary campaign was.



Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Young Conservative on June 23, 2019, 01:03:52 pm
The dry spell will probably last through 2026 at least. Desantis is on track to win by double digits in 2022, especially if it is a Dem midterm.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: The Arizonan on June 23, 2019, 03:38:31 pm
What I知 still puzzled by is why Gillum polled so well (and so much better than Nelson).

I still lose sleep over this.

Yeah, this. Really makes me wonder: WAS the Bradley effect a thing in that race?

Considering how close the race was, I'd say no.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on June 23, 2019, 05:09:37 pm
Something I致e always wondered is: why do the FL Dems in particular suck so bad? FL Dems constantly choke in elections and I always hear how much they suck, but is there a particular reason why they do so much worse than other swing state Democratic parties. Anyone care to inform me?
I imagine it just has to do with the Democratic base in Florida being predominantly young voters and Hispanics, obviously this could describe other states too but the fact that Cubans in Florida are considerably more Republican-leaning than Hispanic voters in other states and the fact that youth turnout can be cancelled out by the growing retiree population, means that Florida Democrats are able to keep it close but can't quite seem to win.
So two things, right? The demographics just aren稚 as good as they look on paper. The state is aging faster than many other states. This used to not be a problem but now many pensioners think they池e competing with younger people for federal and state benefits. The other thing being that a lot of people who are 滴ispanics aren稚 really Hispanics. A lot of Cubans have blonde hair and blue eyes and they generally look Italian. I was talking with an old coworker on Facebook about this the other day.


My guess is that if the issues in Venezuela become a problem for the GOP, or that God forbid, there are fewer people retiring or even reaching old age, that probably  Florida will start voting somewhere between Colorado or New Jersey.

Or it could start voting like Ohio or Missouri if everyone just starts living forever and/or there is this shift in the Mestizo community that it痴 their personal responsibility to 杜arry up or whatever and maybe their Grandchildren will pass as 努hite. Those kids can pretend to be like Elizabeth Warren and just say they are 1/8 or 1/16 American Indian or something.

Maybe this sounds like I don稚 like old people or that I知 racist or whatever but Florida just sucks. I love the climate and there痴 a lot to do but the average IQ down there is in the low 90s. But yeah.

 I guess saying that most old people, especially boomers, are selfish and that some people don稚 care that they are discriminated against or claim that they are and they like it when they are not is wrong.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Indy Texas on June 23, 2019, 10:02:12 pm
The GOP margins have shrunk in every GOV Election since 2002 in FL. The urban areas have turned much bluer while rural and Retirement communites have turned strongly Republican.

The GOP's margins will asymptotically decrease, approaching but never reaching zero.

2022: DeSantis +0.2%

2026: Ashley Moody +0.05%

2030: Ashley Moody +0.01%

2034: Matt Gaetz by a single vote


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: swamiG on June 23, 2019, 10:16:18 pm
The GOP margins have shrunk in every GOV Election since 2002 in FL. The urban areas have turned much bluer while rural and Retirement communites have turned strongly Republican.

The GOP's margins will asymptotically decrease, approaching but never reaching zero.

2022: DeSantis +0.2%

2026: Ashley Moody +0.05%

2030: Ashley Moody +0.01%

2034: Matt Gaetz by a single vote

Bahahahaha... kill me now


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on June 24, 2019, 11:32:42 am
The GOP margins have shrunk in every GOV Election since 2002 in FL. The urban areas have turned much bluer while rural and Retirement communites have turned strongly Republican.

The GOP's margins will asymptotically decrease, approaching but never reaching zero.

2022: DeSantis +0.2%

2026: Ashley Moody +0.05%

2030: Ashley Moody +0.01%

2034: Matt Gaetz by a single vote

Bahahahaha... kill me now

Why don't we just have the governor serve one eight year term and then appoint his successor?


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: President Johnson on June 24, 2019, 02:24:27 pm
The GOP margins have shrunk in every GOV Election since 2002 in FL. The urban areas have turned much bluer while rural and Retirement communites have turned strongly Republican.

The GOP's margins will asymptotically decrease, approaching but never reaching zero.

2022: DeSantis +0.2%

2026: Ashley Moody +0.05%

2030: Ashley Moody +0.01%

2034: Matt Gaetz by a single vote


2038: Exactly tie, but the coin flip results into a Republican win.

2042: Florida is flooded due to climate change and finally turned blue.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: brucejoel99 on June 24, 2019, 03:31:32 pm
after the news of Gillum's campaign being under federal investigation, I think it would be fair to say the democrats won't be looking towards him in 2022 (Though it was already unlikely he could beat Desantis or Rubio)

Is Gillum going to federal prison if this investigation continues to drag out & expand ? I believe it's safe to say his political career (or whatever is left of it) is OVER.

Even if he wasn't going to jail it's pretty apparent Democrats should never nominate him for any office ever again

Trust me, we will. We're just that stupid enough here in the Florida Democratic Party.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Ilhan Apologist on June 24, 2019, 05:20:07 pm
What I知 still puzzled by is why Gillum polled so well (and so much better than Nelson).

I still lose sleep over this.

Yeah, this. Really makes me wonder: WAS the Bradley effect a thing in that race?

Considering how close the race was, I'd say no.

The polls weren't close


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Sir Mohamed on June 25, 2019, 08:17:37 am
The GOP margins have shrunk in every GOV Election since 2002 in FL. The urban areas have turned much bluer while rural and Retirement communites have turned strongly Republican.

The GOP's margins will asymptotically decrease, approaching but never reaching zero.

2022: DeSantis +0.2%

2026: Ashley Moody +0.05%

2030: Ashley Moody +0.01%

2034: Matt Gaetz by a single vote


2038: Exactly tie, but the coin flip results into a Republican win.

2042: Florida is flooded due to climate change and finally turned blue.

Best. answers. ever.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: SirWoodbury on July 07, 2019, 07:07:53 am
The Hamilton tickets bump put DeSantis over the finish line.


Title: Re: Documenting the FL Democratic Party's 20+ year dry spell on a national map
Post by: Lognog on July 07, 2019, 09:53:35 pm
Still amazing how since 2000 West Virginia has never elected a republican