Talk Elections

I'm changing my characterization of this race from Likely R --> Lean R. No, not because 60% of votes cast in the primary were Democratic, more so because Bevin got a pathetic margin of victory out of his primary. There's a very real risk of Republicans staying home, Bevin is going to practically beg Trump to come into Kentucky to save his ass. I realize we're a half year out, but all the signs so far confirm Bevin is, in fact, the least popular governor in the country and he performed like it yesterday. Bevin still has a (pathetically) weak advantage going into the general election.

I know there are a few posters sticking to their guns calling it Safe R, but I think you're gonna have egg on your face if this thing ends up close.

I remember several months ago someone wrote an opinion column that Beshear's campaign might turn out just like that of Jack Conway in 2015, based on Beshear's campaign style compared to Conway's style.

I'll keep observing this race, but I do see the potential for it to shape out like that.

Lean R, for now.

Strong Lean R

Beshear has at least four things going for him Conway didn’t:

1. He has never lost a statewide race. Conway was tainted by his failed Senate bid against Rand Paul.

2. His name. Steve Beshear won two landslides within the last 12 years, and remains a popular figure in the state.

3. Beshear actually won (albeit narrowly) a statewide race the same year Conway lost to Bevin, 2015, which was generally a really bad turnout year, especially for Democrats. Turnout should actually FAVOR Democrats this year, given both Bevin’s unpopularity and the national partisan climate that should motivate Democrats more.

4. Bevin was still pretty unknown at the time and people were willing to roll the dice on him after eight years of Democratic leadership and a lackluster Democratic candidate. Now, however, people know him, and they HATE him. He IS the least popular governor in the country. Incumbency will be a DISADVANTAGE for him.

Moreover, the state Democratic Party should be pretty united around Beshear, while Bevin’s support is lackluster even among his own party — rank and file voters AND legislators (who have mutinied against Bevin) AND elites (i.e. McConnell, who hasn’t forgotten Bevin tried to primary him) all dislike Bevin.

The man is Kentucky Fried Chicken. Anyone who can’t see that because “muh partisan lean” is woefully ignorant of Kentucky state politics to an embarrassing degree. By the same logic Charlie Baker was doomed to fail in 2018. I would have thought this board of all places would know that state politics do not equal national politics, and this is even more true in certain states (including Kentucky) than others. But I guess the temptation to write Kentucky off as nothing but a bunch of stupid hicks who will vote Republican for every office until the end of time is too strong...

Anyone who is actually voting anything stronger for Bevin than Toss-Up/Tilt Bevin either has their head buried deep in the sand or is so ignorant about the race they shouldn’t be voting in this poll.

While Democrats getting more votes overall is irrelevant, the fact that Bevin did so poorly in the primary does give me pause. While I definitely don't want to get my hopes up, and I still think most Republicans will come home for Bevin, I'll acknowledge that there's a chance he could lose, even if it is a Jim Carrey chance. I'll move this from Safe R to Likely R.

This should never have been Safe R to begin with lol

Likely R, but closer to lean than safe.

Unlike, what blue avatars think, its Tilt Beshear, every poll, has shown Beshear leading.

Close to a pure tossup, but I actually give the slightest edge to Beshear. Obviously Kentucky is a much redder state, but the primary result reminds me of what happened with Rauner last year. Plus Beshear's name was able to help him survive the 2015 red wave that brought down Edelen, and it's still an asset this year.

Would've been tossup with Adkins, lean/likely R with Beshear.

Tilt R, would have been Tilt D with Adkins, Likely R with Edelen.

At the moment, I'd tilt it to Beshear, but I would bet my bottom dollar that Trump does 2-3 rallies in the state and makes the race Likely R. I wouldn't underestimate Beshear, though, he probably has a better chance than Bevin ignoring Trump.

Why are you #NeverBeshear, according to your signature? Just curious

https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article174005941.html

Not a fan of political dynasties either.

Tossup, although Tilt R if forced to choose. You could definitely make a case for Lean R, but I really don’t buy the Safe R KY meme.

KY-SEN 2020 is Safe R, but this race isn’t.

This literally has nothing to do with *Andy* aka Baby Beshear

Likely GOP Hold.

Lean R for now with the potential to move in either direction.

That sounds about right.

(And thank you for avoiding the childish expression "gun to my head".)

No

How would such a map look? It’s not hard for me to envision Beshear getting to around 45#•% (just a bit better than Jim Gray’s performance), but after that I’m stumped. He needs either red suburbs to go his way or a resurrection of coal mining Dems
[/quote]

1995 map would be sufficient, due to Paul Patton narrow win over his GOP opponent Larry Forgey, 50-48%

If Beshear wins, that will be his margin over Matt Bevin

He does most likely need to win over a large number of ancestral Democrats in Coal Country, which is why I believe Rocky Adkins would have been a better candidate than Beshear, but oh well. I suppose it's possible Beshear could still win by swinging the suburbs way to the left and winning back a couple rural counties, but I wouldn't count on it.

Dems need to win in KY, to make sure that Biden prove that they are viable in OH and IA again. KY win will dispel Trump strength in OH. Especially, if Biden picks Bullock or Ryan

Are you suggesting Beshear's coattails will carry Biden over the finish line in a different state one year later?

Lean Bevin

Democrats should have nominated Adkins, he would have had some appeal among rural voters. Beshear is probably too progressive on social issues for this state, I mean KY voters are very pro life and I doubt that a NARAL endorsement is of any help in this state.

Some people are really DUMB

Lean R.

Every poll has Beshear ahead, what poll has Bevin ahead?

This is stupid : Dems need to win in KY, to make sure that Biden prove that they are viable in OH and IA again. KY win will dispel Trump strength in OH. Especially, if Biden picks Bullock or Ryan

Text was yesterday, things change.

No, Beshear will get some of the Paul Patton voters, that voter R in 2015 due to Bevin's unpopularity. Every poll has had Beshear leading Bevin.

Senator Grimes and Governor Conway agree

Good thing this is 2014 then.

This might be a bit of hubris after the primary results, but I would say tilt Brashear

That is relating to Olawakandi's post, also Beshear probably loses, this is KY, and KY does not like Democrats, ALG and Beshear won narrowly in 2015, and KY has only gotten redder

Beshear will lose this time around

Greg Stumbo for AG may also be competitive, but I think that flips R

No other statewide races in KY will even be competitive

More Democrats voted in the Democratic primary than GOP, its a tossup, Beshear can equal a Paul Patton victory map over Bevin 50-48%, over David Fogerty, in 1995. But, Bevin is still in the game.