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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections => Topic started by: Smaug on May 22, 2019, 05:06:16 pm



Title: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: Smaug on May 22, 2019, 05:06:16 pm
Usually MD is very Dem friendly up and down the ballot, but in 2002 Ehrlich was the first Republican elected as Governor in MD since Spiro Agnew in 1966. Gov Ehrlich ran in 2006 and lost to O'Malley, same story in 2010. Larry Hogan won in a major upset in 2014 against Lieutenant Gov Anthony Brown and Gov. Hogan won again in 2018 by a higher margin.



2002: Ehrlich +3.7%
()

2006: O'Malley +6.5%
()

2010: O'Malley +14.4%
()

2014: Hogan +3.8%
()

2018: Hogan +11.9%
()


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: Some of My Best Friends Are Gay on May 22, 2019, 06:20:30 pm
Does anyone know what percentage of the black and Hispanic vote Hogan got last year? I'm stunned by how well he did in Baltimore City.


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on May 22, 2019, 06:44:02 pm
Does anyone know what percentage of the black and Hispanic vote Hogan got last year? I'm stunned by how well he did in Baltimore City.
lost Hispanics 52-47 and blacks 71-28.


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 22, 2019, 08:39:35 pm
Does anyone know what percentage of the black and Hispanic vote Hogan got last year? I'm stunned by how well he did in Baltimore City.
lost Hispanics 52-47 and blacks 71-28.

I'm assuming Hogan is the first GOPer to get close to 30% among African Americans since Agnew in 1966 right ?

Ehrlich won 14% of African Americans in 2002, then 16% in 2006 & I think 13% in 2010 ?


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: smoltchanov on May 22, 2019, 11:32:50 pm
Does anyone know what percentage of the black and Hispanic vote Hogan got last year? I'm stunned by how well he did in Baltimore City.
lost Hispanics 52-47 and blacks 71-28.

I'm assuming Hogan is the first GOPer to get close to 30% among African Americans since Agnew in 1966 right ?

Ehrlich won 14% of African Americans in 2002, then 16% in 2006 & I think 13% in 2010 ?

Probably yes. But Charles Mathias got even higher Black percentage in at least some of his Maryland Senate races, IIRC...


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: Roll Roons on May 23, 2019, 12:42:28 am
Why did Ehrlich lose anyway? I thought he was decently popular. Republican governors in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, California and Hawaii (!!!) won reelection in '06 and Hogan won reelection last fall so there has to have been more to it than just the wave.


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: NoobMaster69 on May 23, 2019, 11:18:11 am
Does anyone know what percentage of the black and Hispanic vote Hogan got last year? I'm stunned by how well he did in Baltimore City.
lost Hispanics 52-47 and blacks 71-28.

Wow thatís crazy. I wonder thatís the best a Republican has done with black people (in a heavily black state) recently. Thatís an amazing performance


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: Cory Booker on May 23, 2019, 02:17:44 pm
The GOP ran ultra liberal Ben Jealous instead of Rashurn Baker. Baker, in 2022, should be the nominee.


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 23, 2019, 02:20:04 pm
I should note that then-NJ Governor Tom Kean, Sr., (R) won 11% of African Americans in 1981 & later got a whopping 62% in 1985.

Christine Todd Whitman (R) won 25% of African Americans in 1993 & later 17% in 1997.

Christie got 9% in 2009 & later improved to 21% in 2013.



Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on May 23, 2019, 05:25:42 pm
Once Hogan is term-limited, the MD GOP may not have any bench for a statewide race. Andy Harris is far too conservative, and if MD-06 gets changed to be R-leaning, I doubt that Rep will be statewide material.


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on May 23, 2019, 05:28:30 pm
Why did Ehrlich lose anyway? I thought he was decently popular. Republican governors in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, California and Hawaii (!!!) won reelection in '06 and Hogan won reelection last fall so there has to have been more to it than just the wave.
He did have positive approvals on election day in 2006, but it still wasn't enough. Hogan had about +40 approvals and only won by 11, so gives you a sense of how Democratic Maryland really is.


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on May 23, 2019, 07:03:25 pm
Pretty incredible how the Maryland GOP got utterly annhilated in all the major county executive races even with Hogan romping in all of them. They ran 40 points behind him in Baltimore County, Anne Arundel and Frederick.
Hogan's performance had quite literally no downballot coattails.


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 23, 2019, 08:09:37 pm
Hogan is the GOP version of JBE ?


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: Some of My Best Friends Are Gay on May 23, 2019, 09:57:43 pm

Charlie Baker and Phil Scott also fit that bill.


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: smoltchanov on May 24, 2019, 12:00:31 am

And even more so, as both are more liberal then Hogan...


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: Roll Roons on May 24, 2019, 09:42:19 am
Once Hogan is term-limited, the MD GOP may not have any bench for a statewide race. Andy Harris is far too conservative, and if MD-06 gets changed to be R-leaning, I doubt that Rep will be statewide material.

While Hogan will almost certainly be succeeded by a Democrat, a secretary from from his administration could be a good bet for the future. That's how Hogan (and Baker) got their starts.


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: Nutmeg on May 24, 2019, 10:08:37 am
Pretty incredible how the Maryland GOP got utterly annhilated in all the major county executive races even with Hogan romping in all of them. They ran 40 points behind him in Baltimore County, Anne Arundel and Frederick.
Hogan's performance had quite literally no downballot coattails.

So many Republican candidates last year had the "Hogan Endorsed!" sticker slapped everywhere on their branding. Voters clearly didn't care. Interesting that he's so personally popular but has limited political capital.

==
Also from these maps: As Goes Howard County, So Goes Maryland, it seems.


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: #Kavanaugh For Prison on May 24, 2019, 01:39:10 pm
Pretty incredible how the Maryland GOP got utterly annhilated in all the major county executive races even with Hogan romping in all of them. They ran 40 points behind him in Baltimore County, Anne Arundel and Frederick.
Hogan's performance had quite literally no downballot coattails.

He scored his party a net gain of 1 seat in State Senate races, with 2 gains (1 in Clinton territory, 1 in Trump territory), and 1 loss (in Clinton territory). There were downballot coattails.

Ironically, this is not the 1st time in recent memory where a party gained seats in the Maryland State Senate while the national environment had tilted heavily in the other direction. Democrats took a net gain of 2 seats in the Maryland State Senate in 2010.


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: #Kavanaugh For Prison on May 24, 2019, 02:07:01 pm
Pretty incredible how the Maryland GOP got utterly annhilated in all the major county executive races even with Hogan romping in all of them. They ran 40 points behind him in Baltimore County, Anne Arundel and Frederick.
Hogan's performance had quite literally no downballot coattails.

He scored his party a net gain of 1 seat in State Senate races, with 2 gains (1 in Clinton territory, 1 in Trump territory), and 1 loss (in Clinton territory). There were downballot coattails.

Ironically, this is not the 1st time in recent memory where a party gained seats in the Maryland State Senate while the national environment had tilted heavily in the other direction. Democrats took a net gain of 2 seats in the Maryland State Senate in 2010.

Who was the clown that managed to lose a Clinton seat last year? There's no excuse for that, particularly when people like Jan Gardner were easily winning in light red turf as Hogan was landsliding.

Robbie Leonard

It was an open seat vacated by the Jim Brochin, the Conservative Democrat who lost the Baltimore County Executive Democratic Primary by 17 votes.


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 24, 2019, 03:16:04 pm
Sounds like the MD GOP is going to hit rock bottom when Hogan leaves office on January 18th, 2023.


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on May 25, 2019, 10:01:33 am
Pretty incredible how the Maryland GOP got utterly annhilated in all the major county executive races even with Hogan romping in all of them. They ran 40 points behind him in Baltimore County, Anne Arundel and Frederick.
Hogan's performance had quite literally no downballot coattails.

He scored his party a net gain of 1 seat in State Senate races, with 2 gains (1 in Clinton territory, 1 in Trump territory), and 1 loss (in Clinton territory). There were downballot coattails.

Ironically, this is not the 1st time in recent memory where a party gained seats in the Maryland State Senate while the national environment had tilted heavily in the other direction. Democrats took a net gain of 2 seats in the Maryland State Senate in 2010.

Who was the clown that managed to lose a Clinton seat last year? There's no excuse for that, particularly when people like Jan Gardner were easily winning in light red turf as Hogan was landsliding.

Robbie Leonard

It was an open seat vacated by the Jim Brochin, the Conservative Democrat who lost the Baltimore County Executive Democratic Primary by 17 votes.
To be fair, some places in Maryland tend to just have a less Democratic lean than in presidential elections. Clinton carried Baltimore County by 17, while Olszewski won by 15.


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: #Kavanaugh For Prison on May 25, 2019, 01:47:52 pm
Pretty incredible how the Maryland GOP got utterly annhilated in all the major county executive races even with Hogan romping in all of them. They ran 40 points behind him in Baltimore County, Anne Arundel and Frederick.
Hogan's performance had quite literally no downballot coattails.

He scored his party a net gain of 1 seat in State Senate races, with 2 gains (1 in Clinton territory, 1 in Trump territory), and 1 loss (in Clinton territory). There were downballot coattails.

Ironically, this is not the 1st time in recent memory where a party gained seats in the Maryland State Senate while the national environment had tilted heavily in the other direction. Democrats took a net gain of 2 seats in the Maryland State Senate in 2010.

Who was the clown that managed to lose a Clinton seat last year? There's no excuse for that, particularly when people like Jan Gardner were easily winning in light red turf as Hogan was landsliding.

Robbie Leonard

It was an open seat vacated by the Jim Brochin, the Conservative Democrat who lost the Baltimore County Executive Democratic Primary by 17 votes.
To be fair, some places in Maryland tend to just have a less Democratic lean than in presidential elections. Clinton carried Baltimore County by 17, while Olszewski won by 15.

What I do not get is then why did Republicans fail to win the seat in 2014 when the national environment was much better for them?


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: PragmaticPopulist on May 25, 2019, 03:10:23 pm
Pretty incredible how the Maryland GOP got utterly annhilated in all the major county executive races even with Hogan romping in all of them. They ran 40 points behind him in Baltimore County, Anne Arundel and Frederick.
Hogan's performance had quite literally no downballot coattails.

He scored his party a net gain of 1 seat in State Senate races, with 2 gains (1 in Clinton territory, 1 in Trump territory), and 1 loss (in Clinton territory). There were downballot coattails.

Ironically, this is not the 1st time in recent memory where a party gained seats in the Maryland State Senate while the national environment had tilted heavily in the other direction. Democrats took a net gain of 2 seats in the Maryland State Senate in 2010.

Who was the clown that managed to lose a Clinton seat last year? There's no excuse for that, particularly when people like Jan Gardner were easily winning in light red turf as Hogan was landsliding.

Robbie Leonard

It was an open seat vacated by the Jim Brochin, the Conservative Democrat who lost the Baltimore County Executive Democratic Primary by 17 votes.
To be fair, some places in Maryland tend to just have a less Democratic lean than in presidential elections. Clinton carried Baltimore County by 17, while Olszewski won by 15.

What I do not get is then why did Republicans fail to win the seat in 2014 when the national environment was much better for them?
Incumbency, most likely. Brochin was entrenched.


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: LoneStarDem on May 26, 2019, 02:46:03 pm
When's the last time the MD GOP controlled both chambers of the MD General Assembly ?


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: Tartarus Sauce on May 27, 2019, 09:06:54 pm
When's the last time the MD GOP controlled both chambers of the MD General Assembly ?

1899-1901, which was also the only legislative session in Maryland history where both chambers were controlled by Republicans.


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: Pandaguineapig on May 28, 2019, 12:21:16 am
Once Hogan is term-limited, the MD GOP may not have any bench for a statewide race. Andy Harris is far too conservative, and if MD-06 gets changed to be R-leaning, I doubt that Rep will be statewide material.
True, maybe Boyd Rutherford could run but that's it


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: Timothy87 on June 03, 2019, 09:03:45 am
Pretty incredible how the Maryland GOP got utterly annhilated in all the major county executive races even with Hogan romping in all of them. They ran 40 points behind him in Baltimore County, Anne Arundel and Frederick.
Hogan's performance had quite literally no downballot coattails.

So many Republican candidates last year had the "Hogan Endorsed!" sticker slapped everywhere on their branding. Voters clearly didn't care. Interesting that he's so personally popular but has limited political capital.

==
Also from these maps: As Goes Howard County, So Goes Maryland, it seems.

First - yes I was a bit surprised at the lack of coattails. In countywide races I figured Kittleman would lose but not Schuh.  In the legislature, the districts are so skewed and unfair towards Republicans its not surprising. If we had fair districts in Maryland, republicans would have done better.

Second - Dem State Senators Katherine Klausmeier and Jim Mathias sent out mailers touting how much they work with Gov. Hogan to get re-elected. Mathias lost, and Klausmeier won re-election by 2%, in a district where Dems outnumber Repubs 2 to 1 and she won 61% the last time

Third - It was a big Dem wave year, and it's a heavily Dem state

Fourth - Hogan is well liked around the state. It shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone that he performed as well as he did in Baltimore City and Prince George's county running against the former President of the NAACP no less!


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: LoneStarDem on June 03, 2019, 10:44:49 am
The big question is whether Rutherford has the stomach or guts to run for Government House (Residence of the MD Governor) when Hogan is term limited in 2022 ?



Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: Vespucci on June 03, 2019, 04:40:43 pm
Kathy Szeliga could also be a possibility, albeit a likely sacrificial lamb.


Title: Re: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
Post by: LoneStarDem on June 04, 2019, 07:35:07 am
MD GOP has no good options in 2022.