Title: Most Shocking State Result (4 years before each election) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on May 28, 2019, 01:46:19 AM Also say you had a good idea what the national margin for what each election would be and the wing of the party the nominees were from
This is what I think: 1960: How Close South Carolina was 1964: Mississippi 1968: South Carolina (Going Republican over Southern Democratic) 1972: New York 1976: Wisconsin 1980: Massachusetts(Narrowly over Arkansas) 1984: Pennsylvania voting to the left of New York(Nothing else was surprising) 1988: Iowa 1992: New Hampshire 1996: Arizona 2000: West Virginia 2004: Literally Nothing 2008: Virginia 2012: How Republican Missouri went 2016: Michigan Title: Re: Most Shocking State Result (4 years before each election) Post by: Vosem on May 28, 2019, 02:24:18 AM 2008 was definitely Indiana, beyond a shadow of a doubt. Remains the most shocking state result of the 21st century. Hard to say from before 2000, especially since the country as a whole was more elastic, but here're the ones since then:
2000: West Virginia (but, allowing the specific candidates, Tennessee) 2004: Kind of nothing, but FL and WV were both much more Republican than might've been expected 2008: Indiana by far, with MO still going R in a distant second and NC going D in third. VA going D in a large wave would not have been surprising in 2004. 2012: Kind of nothing, but a few states swung much harder than most would've predicted; IN and WV to the Rs, AK to the Ds 2016: Michigan. Some of the swings (OH/MO to the Rs, AZ/TX to the Ds) would've been shocking, but Michigan going R outright would've been shocking, yeah. Title: Re: Most Shocking State Result (4 years before each election) Post by: Sumner 1868 on May 29, 2019, 12:27:11 AM 2016: Trump's respectable performance in Maine and winning ME-02
2012: Missouri's hard R swing 2008: Indiana 2004: Iowa flipping to Bush given its isolationist streak 2000: Gore losing his home state 1996: Arizona, Georgia 1992: Florida 1988: Maryland having no change from 1984 1984: Reagan only losing Minnesota 1980: Arkansas, Nevada 1976: Massachusetts 1972: McGovern's weakness in WV and strength in WI 1968: Wallace losing the Carolinas. 1964: The near-reversal of the parties Florida coalition compared with 1960 1960: South Carolina voting for a Catholic 1956: Missouri 1952: Kentucky 1948: New York 1944: Michigan 1940: Wisconsin and Ohio 1936: Pennsylvania swinging to FDR so hard 1932: None, but those Cajun's flipping to Hoover 1928: Rhode Island 1924: LaFollette losing North Dakota 1920: Tennessee voting Republican 1916: New Hampshire 1912: Utah voting for Taft 1908: Nebraska 1904: Missouri 1900: None Title: Re: Most Shocking State Result (4 years before each election) Post by: OSR stands with Israel on May 29, 2019, 01:04:15 AM 2016: Trump's respectable performance in Maine and winning ME-02 2012: Missouri's hard R swing 2008: Indiana 2004: Iowa flipping to Bush given its isolationist streak 2000: Gore losing his home state 1996: Arizona, Georgia 1992: Florida 1988: Maryland having no change from 1984 1984: Reagan only losing Minnesota 1980: Arkansas, Nevada 1976: Massachusetts 1972: McGovern's weakness in WV and strength in WI 1968: Wallace losing the Carolinas. 1964: The near-reversal of the parties Florida coalition compared with 1960 1960: South Carolina voting for a Catholic 1956: Missouri 1952: Kentucky 1948: New York 1944: Michigan 1940: Wisconsin and Ohio 1936: Pennsylvania swinging to FDR so hard 1932: None, but those Cajun's flipping to Hoover 1928: Rhode Island 1924: LaFollette losing North Dakota 1920: Tennessee voting Republican 1916: New Hampshire 1912: Utah voting for Taft 1908: Nebraska 1904: Missouri 1900: None Some questions I have ; 2004: Bush nearly won Iowa in 2000 so it didn’t require much of a shift to win it at all and 4 years prior , IA would be considered one of the states that Bush had the best chance of flipping in 04. 2000: Clinton nearly lost Tennessee in 96 , so I don’t think people would consider even Gore losing that state more surprising than losing WV a state that Clinton won by 15 points and a state that even a North East Liberal like Dukakis won despite losing big time nationally . 1984 : If peolple say knew Reagan was going to win even bigger than 1980 I don’t think the overall results would be surprising at all just that PA was closer than NY 1980: Why would Nevada be surprising in 1980, a Western Conservative nominee was literally the perfect fit for that state . Massachusetts was far far more surprising, the idea that a Western Conservative could win that state against an incumbent President while even Nixon couldn’t is easily the most shocking result , even more than Arkansas . 1964: I don’t think anyone In 1960 would think the Deep South would flip by 64 1928: Texas going Republican would be far more surprising than Rhode Island Title: Re: Most Shocking State Result (4 years before each election) Post by: One Term Floridian on May 29, 2019, 02:28:36 AM 1932: MN votes Democratic for the first time ever, and by 23 points
1936: Despite the continuance of the Dust Bowl, FDR still managed to win every state within the Great Plains, and against the Governor of Kansas nonetheless 1940: ME's strong swing towards FDR, despite being 1 of the 2 states he never managed to carry 1944: FDR's margins significantly reduced in the Upper South, with margins within the single digits in WV, KY and MO (despite Truman being on the ticket) and the Republican nearing 40% in VA and TN 1948: VA within single digits 1952: TX goes from being the Dems' best state to one of their worst performing states in the South 1956: MO votes for the Democrat in a GOP landslide 1960: The Deep South swings hard towards the GOP despite a southerner being on the Dem ticket 1964: VT votes Dem for the first time ever, and by 33 points for a southerner nonetheless 1968: SC chooses the GOP over the Dixiecrats 1972: The Dems do decently well in NYC's boroughs while getting blown out elsewhere in the state 1976: A southern Democrat nearly loses MS to a northerner and actually loses VA 1980: Same southern Democrat gets annihilated...in the South and elsewhere 1984: MN remains Democratic in a 49 state GOP sweep, despite being within 4% four years ago 1988: IA votes Dem by double digits in a 40 state GOP sweep 1992: Ticket with two southern Dems comes within single digits of carrying WY yet lose most of the former Confederacy to the GOP 1996: Uneven swing in the South, with both Dem candidates' home states swinging R (esp TN) and states like FL, WV, LA and VA swinging sharply towards them 2000: WV goes R against a southern Dem and by over 6 points nonetheless 2004: OH votes more Democratic than the rest of the country in a losing year for that party 2008: IN 2012: All-county GOP sweep in WV 2016: Dem has closest margin in UT in over 50 years yet the GOP candidate still wins the election with over 300 electoral votes Title: Re: Most Shocking State Result (4 years before each election) Post by: One Term Floridian on May 29, 2019, 02:47:09 AM 1964: I don’t think anyone In 1960 would think the Deep South would flip by 64 Not all that surprising in hindsight, especially seeing how strongly it swung towards a losing GOP candidate in 1960 despite having a southerner on the Dem ticket. Granted, I don't think anyone would have guessed that the Republican would be getting 87% in MS! Title: Re: Most Shocking State Result (4 years before each election) Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on May 29, 2019, 11:18:54 PM In 1984, TN was more Democratic than the nation as a whole. I guess Al Gore's reverse coattails and Carter's residual Southern strength played a big role. In 1996 NJ went from a small Clinton win in 1992 which was to the right of the national average, to a Clinton landslide in 1996.
Title: Re: Most Shocking State Result (4 years before each election) Post by: One Term Floridian on May 29, 2019, 11:35:00 PM In 1984, TN was more Democratic than the nation as a whole. I guess Al Gore's reverse coattails and Carter's residual Southern strength played a big role. In 1996 NJ went from a small Clinton win in 1992 which was to the right of the national average, to a Clinton landslide in 1996. Gore winning all counties, including eastern ones like Sevier probably helped lift Mondale quite a bit down there. This overperformance explains why TN was the only state to swing R in 1988. As for NJ, one could argue Perot took more Clinton's "need for change of leadership" votes up there as well as residual suburban strength for the GOP that was still around 4 years after the Willie Horton attack ads. Title: Re: Most Shocking State Result (4 years before each election) Post by: Mr. Smith on June 04, 2019, 12:28:06 AM 1948: Virginia
1952: Texas 1956: California (decent leftward movement) 1960: Arizona (was a D-leaning bellwether, and Ike was a good fit, but Nixon really won it by a lot) 1964: Georgia 1968: Maine 1972: Rhode Island 1976: Georgia 1980: Massachusetts 1984: Tennessee 1988: Iowa 1992: New Hampshire 1996: Arizona 2000: West Virginia 2004: New Mexico 2008: Indiana 2012: Missouri 2016: Utah Title: Re: Most Shocking State Result (4 years before each election) Post by: One Term Floridian on June 08, 2019, 10:28:02 PM 1948: Virginia 1952: Texas 1956: California (decent leftward movement) 1960: Arizona (was a D-leaning bellwether, and Ike was a good fit, but Nixon really won it by a lot) 1964: Georgia 1968: Maine 1972: Rhode Island 1976: Georgia 1980: Massachusetts 1984: Tennessee 1988: Iowa 1992: New Hampshire 1996: Arizona 2000: West Virginia 2004: New Mexico 2008: Indiana 2012: Missouri 2016: Utah I think AZ swung heavily to the right following Goldwater's election to the Senate in 1952. In his re-election bid, he won by 13 points even as Dems gained a whopping 13 seats in the Sputnik midterm of 1958. Title: Re: Most Shocking State Result (4 years before each election) Post by: Crumpets on June 10, 2019, 05:56:59 PM 1992 - NH
1996 - NJ and CA becoming titanium blue 2000 - WV 2004 - Hmmm... possibly NH flipping back D before any other state? 2008 - IN 2012 - AK 2016 - TX voting to the left of IA Bonus: 2020 - FL |