Talk Elections

In the blue corner we have pretty boy Carte and in the red corner we have coal Baron Jim

I'd say Justice wins an underwhelming victory, especially when compared with Trump on top of the ballot. Goodwin probably wins a handful of counties.

I'm really curious to see how Justice does in the GOP primaries. Will it be close like Bevin v. Goforth?

Justice would beat anyone but Manchin.

Manchin and Ojeda would both make it relatively competitive, but I doubt either would actually win.

Justice wins by ~12, and Goodwin only wins Monongolia and Kanawha

In addition to beating anyone not named Manchin, he'd also beat Manchin.

That's most likely false.

Will yall quit it with the WV threads? This forum is so obsessed with it it's ridiculous. It's rural and educated and 90% white. The state is gone for D's and they wont vote for Bernie Sanders or Joe Manchin or any democrat! People never learn I swear!

Lol stfu this state literally JUST voted for Bad Boy Joe Manchin. He's the undisputed god™ of WV and the #rural #hicks would lovingly embrace their home bad boy despite #polarization trends

Why? If Manchin just scraped by in a good year for Democrats as the incumbent against a weak opponent, why would he win as a challenger in a year that likely won't be as good for Democrats?

This is still the statewide subforum, right?  There is your answer.  It's kind of funny to see the responses here of DEMOCRATS who are almost proud to talk about how their candidates have no chance here because the state has too many undesirables to possibly vote for their party.

The party of the people!

Noticed that Justice sometimes has to sit on a chair because of his extreme weight during his SOTS addresses,I'm starting to doubt whether he'll finish back-to-back 4-year terms.

And people accuse me of using strawmen ::). Show me where I talked about "undesirables" or "hicks" in my post. I'm simply accepting reality, that 2018 will almost certainly be the last statewide victory for a Democrat in West Virginia for a while. Democratic victories in strongly Republican states have been very few and far in between, and have usually been the result of extremely favorable circumstances. Interesting that you would attack Democrats for not being the party of the people, when Republicans regularly use the most populous parts of the United States as political punching bags.

Because gubernatorial elections are less nationalized than senate elections. Hence why three of the bluest states have Republican governors, but none will elect Republican senators any times soon. And the reverse is true with Louisiana.

Yeah, for all the talk about #polarization, it’s honestly remarkable that Manchin was able to win a very nationalized federal race in a Trump +42 state, even with Morrisey’s obvious flaws as a candidate, especially when Trump campaigned against him and WV-SEN was really the only opportunity for WV to express their support of Trump. Underestimating Manchin would be foolish, especially in a state where the then-Democratic candidate for governor outperformed Clinton by like 50 points in a massive Republican wave year. Maybe he wouldn’t win, but I have no doubt that he’d make the race competitive.

We need polls from MO, MT and WV

Is Manchin trolling again ?

Yes.

I want Ojeda to run!

So, uh, this is funny:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/6/10/1863939/-West-Virginia-candidate-wants-to-fix-roads-by-having-folks-drive-British-style-we-think

Somebody should tell Manchin this: "If you're so obsessed with the WV Governor's Mansion, go get your expletive out there & run for the office yourself!"

I'm wondering if he's actually as good of a candidate as he seemed in 2018. Like, he's what coastal elites stereotype Appalachians to be like--but does that make him a good candidate?

and the main people backing him is TYT

Manchin, and he would appoint Richard Ojeda to fill his seat

Doubtful. He'd appoint some DINO because he thinks only such an win the next election. However, if Manchin runs and wins, I'd expect the Republican legislature to change to laws and require a special election within 90 days. Manchin could do nothing about it because he has no veto power or they pass such a bill during the lame duck session.

I don't see Manchin running for the Governorship.

Jim Justice's approval rating is above water, and that'll be enough to win him a second term without much of a sweat.

But will he live to finish a 2nd term considering his large weight & having to use a chair during his SOTS addresses ?

I mean, he is a heart attack waiting to happen.

If Manchin is dead set on this, he would do well to run, win the Gub seat, then resign in such a way that we could name Goodwin as his own successor (2010 in reverse).

The Senate seat would be gone 2 years early, in 2022, but Goodwin would get some more executive experience with views on 2030 or so.
Better than letting Justice name his successor, which would be another flaming disaster.

Is Justice vulnerable to a GOP Primary?

It's pretty rare when a GOVERNOR of a state changes parties.  That's far more rare than a legislator changing parties, and that's because the GOVERNOR is the leader of his party in his/her state for the most part.

How many Governors switched parties while in office?  The only one I can remember is Buddy Roemer who switched to the GOP in 1991.  That didn't work out well for Roemer, whom I believe would have squeaked out reelection as a Democrat (or may have been resoundingly reelected if he was the candidate squaring off against David Duke in 1991).  Justice was a lifelong Republican who became a Democrat in order to run for Governor and switched back after less than a year in office, but I can't believe that this sat well with GOP regulars in WV.  Justice is vulnerable in a primary on general principles, given the manner in which he switched to the Democrats to get elected, and then switched right back to the GOP.  Party regulars don't like being sidestepped like that.

The only person that can beat Justice is Manchin. It's a risk due to fact the GOP leadership, can pass a bill in assembly changing Gov appointment to a special election; as a result Biden, if Prez would throw his support behind Ojeda and he will put another seat at risk for McConnell in a divided Senate, whomever has the majority.

If Biden and Tim Ryan are in Oval Office,  I am willing to take risk

Roemer was elected LA Governor in 1987 defeating EWE, who got his revenge in 1991.

EWE won 4th term in a massive landslide.

The massive landslide was due to David Duke being the GOP candidate, then being disavowed by Bush 41 and the national GOP.  Three Republicans ran, including Roemer, who was NOT the party's choice.  (Rep. Clyde Holloway was the GOP's designated candidate.). Had Roemer run as a Democrat, I believe that he would have made the runoff, beating out Edwards, and POSSIBLY facing Duke, whom he would have beaten.  How he would have fared against Holloway is another question, but Louisiana voted D plus 3 in 1992 and 1996, so his chances weren't bad as a Democrat.

I mean no one would hold the seat for the dems, but can we at least be real here for a second, Earl Ray Tomblin would do better than Ojeda or someone else.

If there is a single forward thinking bone in Joe Manchin's body -- which there may well not be -- he would appoint Carte Goodwin again. Carte's brother, Booth, who is a former US Attorney, or his sister-in-law, Amy, who is the Mayor of Charleston, could also make good appointees.

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