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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/State Elections => Topic started by: Tekken_Guy on June 05, 2019, 03:00:51 pm



Title: More vulnerable: Parson or Holcomb?
Post by: Tekken_Guy on June 05, 2019, 03:00:51 pm
Who is more likely to lose re-election? Mike Parson of Missouri or Eric Holcomb of Indiana?


Title: Re: More vulnerable: Parson or Holcomb?
Post by: Frenchrepublican on June 05, 2019, 03:37:28 pm
Mike Parson because Holcomb is just incredibly popular (65% approval rate according to a poll I saw on HPI)

But both are safe R and with Trump winning both states in a landslide itís unlikely that any race will become competitive.


Title: Re: More vulnerable: Parson or Holcomb?
Post by: LoneStarDem on June 05, 2019, 03:38:01 pm
Neither because both are super popular.


Title: Re: More vulnerable: Parson or Holcomb?
Post by: Landslide Warren on June 05, 2019, 03:48:32 pm
Parson, obviously.


Title: Re: More vulnerable: Parson or Holcomb?
Post by: Xing on June 05, 2019, 03:56:15 pm
Voted Parson, since he'll win by less, but both of them are safe.


Title: Re: More vulnerable: Parson or Holcomb?
Post by: Ses on June 05, 2019, 05:54:30 pm
Parson, but it would take a lot of things lining up for this to even be close to competitive.


Title: Re: More vulnerable: Parson or Holcomb?
Post by: I Beg to Dream and Differ on June 05, 2019, 06:05:44 pm
Not that I expect either to lose, but Parson by default. Indianans love Holcomb.


Title: Re: More vulnerable: Parson or Holcomb?
Post by: #Split California In 4 on June 05, 2019, 06:23:50 pm
The guy who underperformed Trump by 13, not the guy who underperformed Trump by 8; both while sharing a ballot with Trump.


Title: Re: More vulnerable: Parson or Holcomb?
Post by: SnowLabrador on June 05, 2019, 06:27:45 pm
Parson. Holcomb is a relatively non-controversial figure. However, I don't expect either race to be even within single digits. 


Title: Re: More vulnerable: Parson or Holcomb?
Post by: MT Treasurer on June 06, 2019, 03:00:08 am
Parson, because he could actually lose and MO is a lot more D-friendly down-ballot than IN. Holcomb is safe.


Title: Re: More vulnerable: Parson or Holcomb?
Post by: АndriуValeriovich on June 06, 2019, 03:45:17 am
Not that I expect either to lose, but Parson by default. Indianans love Holcomb.


Title: Re: More vulnerable: Parson or Holcomb?
Post by: Cory Booker on June 06, 2019, 05:59:52 pm
Only if Galloway runs, will Parsons lose


Title: Re: More vulnerable: Parson or Holcomb?
Post by: Young Conservative on June 06, 2019, 08:03:53 pm
Galloway would lose by double digits.


Title: Re: More vulnerable: Parson or Holcomb?
Post by: Cory Booker on June 07, 2019, 05:23:30 am
Possible Gubernatorial map

()

DEL Carney inc
IN Holcomb inc
KY Beshear
LA JBE inc
MS Reeves inc seat
MO N Galloway
MT Fox
NH M.Kelly
NC R.Cooper inc
ND Burgam inc
UT GOP inc seat
VT Scott inc
WA L.Brown inc seat
WVA Justice inc


Title: Re: More vulnerable: Parson or Holcomb?
Post by: Frenchrepublican on June 07, 2019, 05:38:56 am
Possible Gubernatorial map

()

DEL Carney inc
IN Holcomb inc
KY Beshear
LA JBE inc
MS Reeves inc seat
MO N Galloway
MT Fox
NH M.Kelly
NC R.Cooper inc
ND Burgam inc
UT GOP inc seat
VT Scott inc
WA L.Brown inc seat
WVA Justice inc

If Parson is losing, which could require either a scandal or a mega democratic tsunami, dems  are not losing MT


Title: Re: More vulnerable: Parson or Holcomb?
Post by: Frenchrepublican on June 07, 2019, 05:39:58 am

Stupid


Title: Re: More vulnerable: Parson or Holcomb?
Post by: Cory Booker on June 07, 2019, 06:34:06 am
Nicole Galloway isn't McCaskill, and Sununu lost his 15 point lead to Kelly and it went down to 7.

Its possible, not probable and Jason Kander almost beat Blunt without a major scandal, in MO, in an R wave yr 2016


Title: Re: More vulnerable: Parson or Holcomb?
Post by: bronz4141 on June 07, 2019, 12:22:33 pm
Gov. Mike Parson.

Yes, Missouri is fairly pro-life, but the MO GOP is a bit too extreme.

A Missouri Democrat can make it a bit competitive, but I believe both of them may win reelection.


Title: Re: More vulnerable: Parson or Holcomb?
Post by: Strong Candidate on June 07, 2019, 04:44:24 pm
Good to see the board actually making some reasonable and well-founded analysis here.