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Forum Community => Forum Community Election Match-ups => Topic started by: FairBol on June 08, 2019, 09:58:26 am



Title: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: FairBol on June 08, 2019, 09:58:26 am
Thought I'd start one of these threads up.  Predict how the previous poster would do in a run for said office, if he/she was the incumbent's only challenger.  I guess I'll start this off. 

US Senate (against Richard Blumenthal, D-CT).  :)


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: АndriуValeriovich on June 08, 2019, 11:25:51 am
Lose 53-47 to Blumenthal

US Senate (against Roy Blunt, R-MO 2022)


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Chancellor S019 on June 08, 2019, 11:33:24 am
Lose 49-48


Governor run against Phil Murphy (Biden midterm with Biden at 39-59 approval, following a major recession)


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: АndriуValeriovich on June 08, 2019, 11:40:39 am
Win 50-48

US Senate (against Rick Scott, R-FL, 2024, after 8 years of Trump, Trump at 41-53 approval)


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Chancellor S019 on June 08, 2019, 12:57:59 pm
Lose 49.99-49.97


Blame FL Democrats

2024 NJ Sen


Against Bob Menendez (Menendez has a 39-54 approval)
Joe Biden is the incumbent has an approval of 46-52
GCB is R+3


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Xing on June 08, 2019, 03:38:50 pm
Menendez wins 53-45.

WA-03 against Herrera-Beutler (2024 after eight years of Trump, Trump's approval is 39-56, Herrera Beutler's approval is 49-46)


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Pericles on June 08, 2019, 03:48:24 pm
Loses by 2%.

Senate against Pat Toomey, 2022, President Biden approval +4%.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Some of My Best Friends Are Gay on June 08, 2019, 03:57:06 pm
49-47 win for you


California Governor 2022, Trump is still President and has a 40/53 approval rating.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: RFayette on June 08, 2019, 04:29:49 pm
70-30 win.

CA governor, 2022 under President Biden, deep recession and 35-65 approval rating


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Fuzzy After Dark on June 08, 2019, 04:37:59 pm
Lose 47-53 (above-average showing)

Nominee of Republican, Conservative, and Independent parties for Governor of NY vs Andrew Cuomo in 2022 (Cuomo's 4th term).


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Bolshevik Biden on June 08, 2019, 04:43:12 pm
Lose 60-40 (horrible fit for NY)

Democratic nominee against Steve Daines for his Montana Senate seat.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Bagel23 on June 08, 2019, 04:48:54 pm
TX 32nd CD (my home district) 2018 as dem nominee


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Chancellor S019 on June 08, 2019, 04:51:37 pm
Lose 60-40 (horrible fit for NY)

Democratic nominee against Steve Daines for his Montana Senate seat.

Loses 57-43, your pro-drug, left-wing views are a terrible fit for Montana

TX 32nd CD (my home district) 2018 as dem nominee

Win by about 12%, you are a Blue Dog and end up Blanching Sessions

NJ-11 in 2022, following a reception, Biden is at 38-57 approval


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Landslide Warren on June 08, 2019, 06:17:46 pm
You win 52-45

Run for MA-GOV 2022 against Baker


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Pericles on June 08, 2019, 06:27:59 pm
Loses by a 12-point margin.

Run for Florida Senate seat against Rick Scott in 2024, President Warren with +2% approval rating, she is running for re-election.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Old School Republican on June 08, 2019, 06:33:36 pm
Lose 51-48


Oregon Governor with an unpopular Democrat  as President as well as Kate Brown approvals being under 40 percent


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Landslide Warren on June 08, 2019, 06:42:24 pm
Win 49-47

Run for MA-GOV 2022 (Baker retires)


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Pericles on June 08, 2019, 06:58:19 pm
Wins by a 12-point margin.

Runs for NC-Sen in 2022, Trump is President with -9% net approval rating, open seat.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Bagel23 on June 08, 2019, 08:18:09 pm
Win 49-48

TX Sen 2024 against Cruz, Trump won reelection, has negative 15 approval rating.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Gucci Slides on June 08, 2019, 09:03:17 pm
Win 52-46

2020 TN-04 Republican primary against Scott DesJarlais


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: gracile on June 08, 2019, 09:14:19 pm
DesJarlais wins 57-43

IL-06 as a Democrat against a generic Republican in the 2022 midterm under second term Donald Trump (assume under the current IL-06 lines, not anything redistricted).


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: АndriуValeriovich on June 09, 2019, 04:58:16 am
Win 52-47

US Senate (against Ron Johnson, R-WI, 2022, Biden at 50-45 approval, Johnson at 44-52 approval)


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Pericles on June 09, 2019, 05:54:09 am
Wins by a 1-point margin.

Runs for Georgia Governor in 2022 against incumbent Kemp, President Biden with -3% approval.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Landslide Warren on June 09, 2019, 08:03:40 am
Lose 51-48 (no runoff)

Run for WV-SEN in 2024 (Manchin retires)


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: АndriуValeriovich on June 09, 2019, 12:23:29 pm
Lose 60-40

US Senate in Montana 2020 against Steve Daines


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Chancellor S019 on June 09, 2019, 12:25:54 pm
Lost 50-48

Blame polarization


NJ SEN 2026, Dem President with a 38-51 approval, Booker retires, Norcoss runs as replacement


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Bagel23 on June 09, 2019, 12:48:07 pm
Norcross wins 54-42

CO Sen Race 2020


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on June 09, 2019, 03:15:30 pm
55-43
FL-26


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Chancellor S019 on June 10, 2019, 01:30:53 pm
Lose 53-47, Cubans hate actual Socialism


NJ-07 in 2022. Biden with a 39-58 approval, Malinowski won by 2 in 2020


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Landslide Warren on June 10, 2019, 02:20:34 pm
You lose 60-40 because of muh trends

MA-9 in 2020 (Keating retires, Trump loses district by 5)


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on June 10, 2019, 05:17:19 pm
Win 55-45

Mayor of Franklin, TN (2023, Mayor Ken Moore retires)

*The city in Williamson County, not Franklin County.  Franklin has voted about 65% Republican in recent elections.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Ishan on June 10, 2019, 07:21:34 pm
Win 64-36

AR-02, 2022

Trump 53-46 in Arkansas, Opponent in a scandal like Weiner or Foley.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: TDAS04 on June 10, 2019, 07:24:06 pm
Lose 49-51.

Elliott County (KY) Clerk (2022)


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Chancellor S019 on June 11, 2019, 06:28:28 am
Lose 63-37


Morris County Clerk (2022, Biden with 39-57 approval)


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Bagel23 on June 16, 2019, 05:25:14 pm
Win 57-43

Ohio 13th 2020, Tim Ryan vacates, running against DePizzo again in a rematch.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Landslide Warren on June 17, 2019, 10:17:33 am
Win 54-42, with a liberal third party taking 4%

Run for CT-2 (Courtney retires), Trump loses district by 3



Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Grassr00ts on June 19, 2019, 06:39:07 pm
Lose 49-50

Illinois gubernatorial in 2022 against Pritzker.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Pericles on June 19, 2019, 09:39:16 pm
Loses by a 15-point margin.

Run for Ohio Governor in 2022 against incumbent DeWine, Trump midterm with Trump at -12% net approval.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Landslide Warren on June 21, 2019, 05:15:25 pm
Win 48-48

Run for PA gov 2022, Trump at -10 approval


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: MB on June 23, 2019, 03:29:42 am
Win by 8 or something as long as you make it out of the primary

Governor of Idaho, 2042, against a 75 year old Raul Labrador


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Chancellor S019 on June 28, 2019, 10:32:16 pm
Lose 63-37


NJ-05 in 2022 (Biden with 37-59 approval)


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Bagel23 on June 29, 2019, 04:57:41 pm

It is a strong fight, but Gottheimer is too strong for you to topple, he narrowly survives 49-48

In an open seat you win 52-45

CA 21 in 2020 against Valadao.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Chancellor S019 on June 29, 2019, 11:25:01 pm
Bagel 57-43


US President in 2028 (following 4 years of Cotton, Cotton approval is 49-51)


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Chancellor S019 on August 17, 2019, 01:24:33 am
Bump


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Ishan on August 22, 2019, 06:22:24 pm
 49-46 SNJC


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Bagel23 on August 22, 2019, 06:54:09 pm
Aaaand since you did not give a race, I will do you vs Fitzpatrick,

I think you would win 51-49.

Tx 23rd 2020 GE against Flores.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Warren for Prez! on August 22, 2019, 08:59:38 pm
Bagel 53-48.


U.S Presidential election against Donald J. Trump


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Chancellor S019 on August 22, 2019, 11:57:57 pm
Monroe 49-45

You win the EC with 2016 +PA, MI, WI, NC, AZ

NJ-11 in 2022 (Biden with a national approval of 39-54), Sherrill is actively posturing for the Senate seat, and Malinowski got the incumbent protection seat, not Sherrill


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Landslide Warren on August 23, 2019, 06:19:37 am
You win 51-48

Run for MA-1 (Neal retired)


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Pericles on August 23, 2019, 06:52:04 am
Let's presume this takes place in 2020 and is about the general election. In which case, Politician wins by around a 25-point margin.

House race for Nebraska 2nd district in 2020 against incumbent Bacon.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Landslide Warren on August 23, 2019, 05:30:10 pm
You lose 50-50

Run for VT-GOV 2020 against Inc. Scott


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Trans Rights Are Human Rights on August 23, 2019, 05:32:34 pm
Loses by upper-single digits. Let's say 54-46 for simplicity.

2022 NC-SEN against Climbing Dan


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Chancellor S019 on August 24, 2019, 12:48:45 am
If Dem is President

Bishop 53-47


If Rep is President

Peebs 52-48

NJ-02 in 2020 against JVD, Trump wins the district by 3


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Pericles on August 24, 2019, 12:52:34 am
Close one but I think Van Drew pulls out a win.

Run for GA Senate seat in 2020 against Perdue.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Bagel23 on August 24, 2019, 02:21:11 am
Loses 51-47

Me vs Gardner 2020


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: morgankingsley on August 24, 2019, 04:05:48 am
You probably win by 2 or 3 points

Oregon representative first congressional district


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on September 01, 2019, 03:05:46 pm
Lose 58-42

Primary challenge to President Trump


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Elizabeth Warren 2020 on September 05, 2019, 04:22:14 pm
Loses. I'll ballpark it at 85-15 Trump.

Challenges Toomey in 2022.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: KoopaDaQuick on September 05, 2019, 11:06:12 pm
Victory, 61-49.

Against Rod Blum as a D in 2018.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Bagel23 on September 06, 2019, 10:26:40 am
Loses 52-46, blame social conservatism.

AZ 1 against Carlyle Begay 2020 GE.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Captain Thunder on September 11, 2019, 09:04:41 pm
Win 51-48
Senate run for Sherrod Brown's old seat, now VP under President O'Rourke 51-45 rating


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: S**tposting is a Human Right on September 14, 2019, 04:20:30 am
Win with the narrowest of margins. O'Rourke would be an unpopular president and the backlash would begin soon after his inauguration. But having Sherrod Brown on your side would be a positive if he campaigned with you.

California's 2nd congressional district (challenging Jared Huffman).


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: West_Midlander on November 09, 2019, 03:10:56 pm
26% as a Libertarian in the runoff.

If I was the sole challenger in CA-12


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Sen. Dean Heller on December 22, 2019, 11:59:29 pm
26% as a Libertarian in the runoff.

If I was the sole challenger in CA-12

5%, you're too ideologically similar to Pelosi to gain significant ground in a primary challenge.

2020 NC Senate Run as Republican nominee against Cal Cunningham


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Bagel23 on December 23, 2019, 03:27:51 am
49-48 you win.

TX 23rd 2020 GE vs Raul Reyes Jr


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Old School Republican on December 23, 2019, 03:41:35 am
You win by around 5-6 points


CA-25th vs Cenk Uygur


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: АndriуValeriovich on December 23, 2019, 08:37:04 am
53.5-46.5 win

Minnesota Senator 2020 (Tina Smith retires) vs Generic R


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: 538Electoral on December 23, 2019, 11:44:45 pm
5-6% win.

Ohio's 5th district against Generic D.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Oregon Blue Dog on December 28, 2019, 12:46:48 am
Win with over 60%. I could see a 61-39 victory occuring.

Oregon's 5th District against a competent Republican candidate (i.e. a Knute Buehler or Greg Walden type).


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: MB on December 28, 2019, 12:53:57 am
Win with over 60%. I could see a 61-39 victory occuring.

Oregon's 5th District against a competent Republican candidate (i.e. a Knute Buehler or Greg Walden type).
uh idk if you like Kurt Schrader or not but I'm gonna say since your username is Oregon Blue Dog and he's a literal Oregon Blue Dog then you'd vote for him.

oh sh!t wrong thread

Wins like 50-45

anyway Oregon Senate vs. Kurt Schrader in a D primary


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: I Beg to Dream and Differ on December 28, 2019, 02:52:10 am
Honestly, I feel like you'd squeeze out a narrow victory somewhere close to the tune of 52-48. Oregon isn't really a moderate place on the statewide level, and your brand of politics would be better-tuned for it than Schrader's.

Governor of Montana vs. Greg Gianforte.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Sen. Dean Heller on December 29, 2019, 11:35:48 pm
Honestly, I feel like you'd squeeze out a narrow victory somewhere close to the tune of 52-48. Oregon isn't really a moderate place on the statewide level, and your brand of politics would be better-tuned for it than Schrader's.

Governor of Montana vs. Greg Gianforte.

Loses, 42-53 (Sorry, neither of you is a good candidate for MT)

Texas Senate 2020 Run against MJ Hegar


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: West_Midlander on December 30, 2019, 05:24:40 am
Wins 52-45

1v1 Dem Primary against Hagar for US Senate, TX 2020


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Chancellor S019 on December 31, 2019, 01:11:46 am
Hegar 62-38


2020 Senate v Kim Guadagno (Booker retires, because he remains relevant in the WH race and Gottheimer and Sherrill don't run because the DCCC wants them to hold onto their house seats)


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: I Beg to Dream and Differ on December 31, 2019, 02:44:54 pm
S019 60-37. The GOP ship is sunk in New Jersey, especially for anyone attached to Christie's legacy.

AZ-SEN 2020 vs. Martha McSally (Kelly resolves to remain in retirement with his wife).


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Sen. Dean Heller on December 31, 2019, 03:06:05 pm
S019 60-37. The GOP ship is sunk in New Jersey, especially for anyone attached to Christie's legacy.

AZ-SEN 2020 vs. Martha McSally (Kelly resolves to remain in retirement with his wife).

Loses 46-49

2020 NJ-07 run against Tom Malinowski


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Chancellor S019 on December 31, 2019, 06:04:28 pm
Malinowski 52-47

TX-SEN in 2024 against Cruz


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Bagel23 on January 01, 2020, 07:10:24 pm
Narrowly wins 49-48 in a Trump white house, loses 51-46 in a dem white house.

Somehow gets the nomination for tx 24, 2020 GE against Beth Van Duyne.


Title: Re: How Would The Previous Poster Fare In A Run For....
Post by: Esteemed Governor Jimmy7812 on January 01, 2020, 09:37:38 pm
Wins 48-47