Atlas Forum

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/State Elections => Topic started by: Landslide Warren on June 09, 2019, 07:16:53 pm



Title: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: Landslide Warren on June 09, 2019, 07:16:53 pm
Here's the current map.

()

A 30% shade indicates the party not holding the governorship has supermajorities in the legislature.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: gracile on June 09, 2019, 07:46:29 pm
Virginia is basically a sure thing.

Other than that, I would Montana (R trifecta) and Minnesota (D trifecta) are the most likely after 2020, maybe Louisiana too.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: L.D. Smith on June 09, 2019, 08:03:53 pm
New Hampshire is possible, even likely, as long as the D nominee is competent.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: R.P. McM on June 09, 2019, 10:32:41 pm
VA and MN are the safest choices here.  Technically MN Dems need 1 fewer seats, but I don't know how the legislative maps compare.

The biggest difference: VA Dems need to flip two chambers. One of which was up in 2017, and retained a two-seat GOP majority. In contrast, the MN House now has a 16-seat DFL majority. But there are plenty of vulnerable suburban seats in both states, so in all likelihood, all three chambers flip.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: timewalker102 on June 10, 2019, 12:31:15 am
Kentucky loses Republican trifecta status, but not sure about Mississippi.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: lfromnj on June 10, 2019, 12:38:02 am
VA and MN are the safest choices here.  Technically MN Dems need 1 fewer seats, but I don't know how the legislative maps compare.

The biggest difference: VA Dems need to flip two chambers. One of which was up in 2017, and retained a two-seat GOP majority. In contrast, the MN House now has a 16-seat DFL majority. But there are plenty of vulnerable suburban seats in both states, so in all likelihood, all three chambers flip.

VA can be won by winning clinton seats.

MN requires winning quite a few Trump seats.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: R.P. McM on June 10, 2019, 01:47:22 am
VA and MN are the safest choices here.  Technically MN Dems need 1 fewer seats, but I don't know how the legislative maps compare.

The biggest difference: VA Dems need to flip two chambers. One of which was up in 2017, and retained a two-seat GOP majority. In contrast, the MN House now has a 16-seat DFL majority. But there are plenty of vulnerable suburban seats in both states, so in all likelihood, all three chambers flip.

VA can be won by winning clinton seats.

MN requires winning quite a few Trump seats.

MN requires retaining some Trump seats that were retained in 2016, and/or winning some territory where the GOP was massacred in 2018. Netting two seats in a chamber that wasn't up in 2018, but corresponds exactly to a chamber in which the DFL now enjoys a 16-seat majority. In VA, Democrats have to flip a chamber they couldn't flip in 2017. A D+9 electoral result in both states translated to legislative majorities of +16 and -2, respectively. I'm not exactly sure how this corresponds to the 2016 presidential results, but I suspect the difference owes to the court-drawn MN map. Still, I predict Democrats hold all three chambers by 2021.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: LoneStarDem on June 10, 2019, 07:54:53 am
NC: Cooper is NOT losing reelection. Stop being a God DAMN pessimist.

LA: JBE wins reelection. Divided government will continue.



Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: Nyvin on June 10, 2019, 08:46:40 am
Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire are the obvious choices to become trifectas.   After that I'd say Arizona has the biggest chance to "lose" trifecta status, followed by Montana. 

Not much else on the table after those five.   Kansas GOP losing it's supermajority in the State House could happen though.

Long Shots:  TX State House flipping,  NC Gov flipping, IA state House Flipping.   


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: The Denver Poster on June 10, 2019, 09:42:24 am
VA and MN are the safest choices here.  Technically MN Dems need 1 fewer seats, but I don't know how the legislative maps compare.

The biggest difference: VA Dems need to flip two chambers. One of which was up in 2017, and retained a two-seat GOP majority. In contrast, the MN House now has a 16-seat DFL majority. But there are plenty of vulnerable suburban seats in both states, so in all likelihood, all three chambers flip.

VA can be won by winning clinton seats.

MN requires winning quite a few Trump seats.

MN requires retaining some Trump seats that were retained in 2016, and/or winning some territory where the GOP was massacred in 2018. Netting two seats in a chamber that wasn't up in 2018, but corresponds exactly to a chamber in which the DFL now enjoys a 16-seat majority. In VA, Democrats have to flip a chamber they couldn't flip in 2017. A D+9 electoral result in both states translated to legislative majorities of +16 and -2, respectively. I'm not exactly sure how this corresponds to the 2016 presidential results, but I suspect the difference owes to the court-drawn MN map. Still, I predict Democrats hold all three chambers by 2021.

This is a little short sighted.

The -2 in the House of Dels was literally decided by a draw from a hat after one district had a tie. There was a 50-50 chance of Ds winning that draw and, in turn, winning the chamber (tiebreaker Lt. Gov is a D).

In addition to that, they still gained ~15 seats in one round. Some of these seats were incredibly easy pickups (there were an embarrassing number of Obama-Clinton-downballot R districts particularly in Fairfax/PWC/Loudon) but even still when you're aggressively targeting >15 seats you're spreading yourself thin. From a logistics standpoint 2019 should be much easier because they'll barely need to spend anything to defend many of these districts. There are still plenty of districts to target (two in VA Beach, one/two in Newport News, one in Fairfax) and there will be more resources available to target them.

Add to that a couple of R retirements and the fact that the lone Republican left in NOVA has turned hard right this session and gotten major flak for it and things look pretty good for Dems to flip the House.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: DPKdebator on June 10, 2019, 10:11:15 am
New Hampshire is possible, even likely, as long as the D nominee is competent.

Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire are the obvious choices to become trifectas.   After that I'd say Arizona has the biggest chance to "lose" trifecta status, followed by Montana. 

Not much else on the table after those five.   Kansas GOP losing it's supermajority in the State House could happen though.

Long Shots:  TX State House flipping,  NC Gov flipping, IA state House Flipping.   


New Hampshire is not an "obvious choice" or likely to become a Democratic trifecta, Sununu is running for reelection and it is highly unlikely that he loses in 2020.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: Oryxslayer on June 10, 2019, 10:25:36 am
Nornal Change For the Rs:

MT Trifecta, LA Trifecta

Longshots: AK Trifecta, NC Trifecta, NV Divided, CO Divided

The normal changes are your normal gubernatorial pickups, but the longshots are a little more peculiar.  AK R's still have some ground to gain in the state house, but control depends more on negotiation then seats - 2018 saw R gains. The peculiar position of Alaskas economy right now can't help the incumbent R's in this regard. NC right now favors Cooper. NV can fall, largely because the senate chamber is so small that a three seat gain is a flip, but its unlikely given the map. CO is also close to a senate pickup for Rs, but they are still playing defensive upon examining the maps lean.

Normal D change:

VA Trifecta, MN Trifecta, AZ Divided, KS Divided

Longshots: MS Divided but Trifecta, KY Divided, TX Divided, IA divided, NH Trifecta, PA Trifecta, MI Trifecta

Unlike the R's, the dems have a long tail of potential pickups. VA and MN should be easy flips given 2018 in MN and the district leans in VA. KS also should see the state house supermajority break, but in practice it already is given the moderate-fundamentalist divide among KS Rs. AZ's rules make both chambers a tossup going into 2020, since there are presently republican senators repping double dem state house seats, and a 1 rep - 1 dem seat in the state house. Tied control is a surprisingly high possibility here.

Longshots begin with the 2019 governor races in red states. TX state house can flip given the Beto results and national dems targeting the state in 2020, but the road is narrow. IA requires advancement in marginal seats when Trump is also on the ballot, potentially a tall order. NH requires Sununu to lose, right now a tall order. PA suffers from VA2017 syndrome right now, there is a road both in the senate and the state house in 2020 following the 2018 advances, but its a lot of seats in a lot of places (SE, NW, Pittsburg region, Lehigh, Harrisburg), since the chambers are large, so chances are low. MI only has the chance of a flip if Redistricting is approved and the courts order is carried out. If so, the  state likely becomes an expected gain, but the chances of this happening are low.

One notable missing chamber is FL-Senate. Despite the closeness of the Democrats to the flip threashold, the 2020 map requires something to go wrong for republicans to lose control. MO divided also deserves mention as a missing opportunity,  because Galloway probably isn't outrunning Trump in his reelection year - if she decides to run.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: Landslide Warren on June 10, 2019, 10:35:37 am
Best case scenario for R's:
()

Best case scenario for D's:
()


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: Nyvin on June 10, 2019, 10:43:57 am
New Hampshire is possible, even likely, as long as the D nominee is competent.

Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire are the obvious choices to become trifectas.   After that I'd say Arizona has the biggest chance to "lose" trifecta status, followed by Montana. 

Not much else on the table after those five.   Kansas GOP losing it's supermajority in the State House could happen though.

Long Shots:  TX State House flipping,  NC Gov flipping, IA state House Flipping.   


New Hampshire is not an "obvious choice" or likely to become a Democratic trifecta, Sununu is running for reelection and it is highly unlikely that he loses in 2020.

I wouldn't be so sure.   NH gov doesn't have the same kind of big profile other state govs have.   He's definitely not that popular with state party officials.   I personally think the last two candidates the NH dems ran for gov were both flops too.   

I wouldn't be surprised to see Sununu go down next year.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: Frenchrepublican on June 10, 2019, 10:47:04 am
()


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: LoneStarDem on June 10, 2019, 12:08:52 pm
TX House of Representatives & TX State Senate are NOT flipping back to the Dems until 2052 or so due to massive GOP gerrymandering.



Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: 🤩😍SECULAR LATINA GOVERNESS M. LUJAN😍🤩 on June 10, 2019, 12:12:31 pm
TX House of Representatives & TX State Senate are NOT flipping back to the Dems until 2052 or so due to massive GOP gerrymandering

Are you sure? I could see it flipping in 2056, maybe 2054, but 2052? What are you smoking?


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: Nyvin on June 10, 2019, 12:24:09 pm
Best case scenario for R's:
()

Best case scenario for D's:
()

Michigan's state senate isn't up till 2022.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: Frenchrepublican on June 10, 2019, 12:47:28 pm
Best case scenario for R's:
()

Best case scenario for D's:
()

Michigan's state senate isn't up till 2022.

Yeah and Parson losing + NC legislature flipping is hard to imagine


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: Nyvin on June 10, 2019, 01:26:07 pm
Best case scenario for R's:
()

Best case scenario for D's:
()

Michigan's state senate isn't up till 2022.

Yeah and Parson losing + NC legislature flipping is hard to imagine

Is NC still getting new legislative maps?  I remember hearing about that a while ago,  but it kinda faded out of attention now.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: LoneStarDem on June 10, 2019, 02:05:39 pm
NC: Cooper is NOT losing reelection. Stop being a God DAMN pessimist.

LA: JBE wins reelection. Divided government will continue.



There is the possibility that Roy Cooper losses reelection. He won by only 10,000 votes so he can lose by 10,000 votes. North Carolina is a pure swing state. If the gridlock in North Carolina counties a Republican may win the election which would make the state a trifecta again. 

NC Dems are NOT going to be caught napping when they have an opportunity to exact revenge on the NC GOP by flipping one or both chambers of the NC General Assembly.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: Oryxslayer on June 10, 2019, 03:07:12 pm
Best case scenario for R's:
()

Best case scenario for D's:
()

Michigan's state senate isn't up till 2022.

As I said in my post, there was a court decision that threw out a bunch of MI congressional, state senate, and state house districts. But the odds of the decision actually being enacted are low - see supreme court. So if they do, there will be a elections for the full state senate per the courts ruling, and dems will liekly gain it considering the remap potential. But if not, then no.

NC trifecta also isn't happening. Even though there similarly is a low chance for a remap, dems are constrained gain wise. The west of the state saw a dems mostly hit their geographic ceiling, and the east of the state has dems constrained by the necessity of AA seats. The dems are near their ceiling geographically, with all of the gains coming around the urban cores in 2018. A remap raises that ceiling especially in the senate, but like in florida, something needs to give for a flip.

Parson losing and Republican flips in New England are possible, but you need an vibrant imagination, at least right now, to see it happening.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: LoneStarDem on June 10, 2019, 03:38:33 pm
What are the odds the MI Dems win back control of both chambers of the MI State Legislature ? Whitmer needs full partners.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: Nyvin on June 10, 2019, 05:07:06 pm

Michigan's state senate isn't up till 2022.

As I said in my post, there was a court decision that threw out a bunch of MI congressional, state senate, and state house districts. But the odds of the decision actually being enacted are low - see supreme court. So if they do, there will be a elections for the full state senate per the courts ruling, and dems will liekly gain it considering the remap potential. But if not, then no.

NC trifecta also isn't happening. Even though there similarly is a low chance for a remap, dems are constrained gain wise. The west of the state saw a dems mostly hit their geographic ceiling, and the east of the state has dems constrained by the necessity of AA seats. The dems are near their ceiling geographically, with all of the gains coming around the urban cores in 2018. A remap raises that ceiling especially in the senate, but like in florida, something needs to give for a flip.

Parson losing and Republican flips in New England are possible, but you need an vibrant imagination, at least right now, to see it happening.

Oh wow, I didn't realize MI's court case would trigger new elections for the state senate.  In that case it's totally possible to flip if SCOTUS lets it go through.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: Frenchrepublican on June 10, 2019, 05:14:05 pm
NC: Cooper is NOT losing reelection. Stop being a God DAMN pessimist.

LA: JBE wins reelection. Divided government will continue.



There is the possibility that Roy Cooper losses reelection. He won by only 10,000 votes so he can lose by 10,000 votes. North Carolina is a pure swing state. If the gridlock in North Carolina counties a Republican may win the election which would make the state a trifecta again. 

NC Dems are NOT going to be caught napping when they have an opportunity to exact revenge on the NC GOP by flipping one or both chambers of the NC General Assembly.

While the Republican Supermajority is gone, they still have a significant majority that won't flip any time soon.

Yeah, and dems have at least five very vulnerable districts to defend in the state house


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear on June 10, 2019, 09:04:40 pm
Virginia is basically a sure thing.

Other than that, I would Montana (R trifecta) and Minnesota (D trifecta) are the most likely after 2020, maybe Louisiana too.

How many seats are up in both houses in VA?


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: lfromnj on June 10, 2019, 09:43:02 pm
Virginia is basically a sure thing.

Other than that, I would Montana (R trifecta) and Minnesota (D trifecta) are the most likely after 2020, maybe Louisiana too.

How many seats are up in both houses in VA?

all 140(40 Senate and 100 House)
All of them in MN too in 2020.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: ElectionsGuy on June 11, 2019, 01:24:47 am
D Trifecta gains: Virginia
R Trifecta gains: Montana

that's it.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: Gass3268 on June 11, 2019, 06:29:37 am
MN and VA Senate are all but assured. VA House is likely. Republicans probably get the Montana Governorship too.

Supreme Court will probably rule that they won't touch the North Carolina maps, so I expect the challenge to move to the overwhelmingly Democratic North Carolina Supreme Court were I expect them to strike down their state legislative maps, which could make the body super competative in 2020. Texas House is an outside shot as it all of a sudden finds itself not super gerrymandered anymore.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: Frenchrepublican on June 11, 2019, 11:53:32 am
MN and VA Senate are all but assured. VA House is likely. Republicans probably get the Montana Governorship too.

Supreme Court will probably rule that they won't touch the North Carolina maps, so I expect the challenge to move to the overwhelmingly Democratic North Carolina Supreme Court were I expect them to strike down their state legislative maps, which could make the body super competative in 2020. Texas House is an outside shot as it all of a sudden finds itself not super gerrymandered anymore.

The NC legislature won't flip even under a ''fair map'', democrats tried to win the senate last year and hoped that the new map would hand them a majority, but they failed anyway, the main problem is that dems are very concentred in large urban counties


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: LoneStarDem on June 11, 2019, 12:43:29 pm
MN and VA Senate are all but assured. VA House is likely. Republicans probably get the Montana Governorship too.

Supreme Court will probably rule that they won't touch the North Carolina maps, so I expect the challenge to move to the overwhelmingly Democratic North Carolina Supreme Court were I expect them to strike down their state legislative maps, which could make the body super competative in 2020. Texas House is an outside shot as it all of a sudden finds itself not super gerrymandered anymore.

The NC legislature won't flip even under a ''fair map'', democrats tried to win the senate last year and hoped that the new map would hand them a majority, but they failed anyway, the main problem is that dems are very concentred in large urban counties

NC GOP is running out of Anglos because the Tar Heel State is becoming more & more biracial each & everyday.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: Frenchrepublican on June 11, 2019, 02:45:16 pm
MN and VA Senate are all but assured. VA House is likely. Republicans probably get the Montana Governorship too.

Supreme Court will probably rule that they won't touch the North Carolina maps, so I expect the challenge to move to the overwhelmingly Democratic North Carolina Supreme Court were I expect them to strike down their state legislative maps, which could make the body super competative in 2020. Texas House is an outside shot as it all of a sudden finds itself not super gerrymandered anymore.

The NC legislature won't flip even under a ''fair map'', democrats tried to win the senate last year and hoped that the new map would hand them a majority, but they failed anyway, the main problem is that dems are very concentred in large urban counties

NC GOP is running out of Anglos because the Tar Heel State is becoming more & more biracial each & everyday.

You have also a big influx of white, older, conservative voters from other states, it's why NC is not really trending either way.

Anyway concerning the legislature, the fact that dems are more and more reliant on minorities in big cities will only deepen their problem, winning Charlotte 65/30 rather than 60/40 won't net them any new seats.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: LoneStarDem on June 11, 2019, 03:02:52 pm
MN and VA Senate are all but assured. VA House is likely. Republicans probably get the Montana Governorship too.

Supreme Court will probably rule that they won't touch the North Carolina maps, so I expect the challenge to move to the overwhelmingly Democratic North Carolina Supreme Court were I expect them to strike down their state legislative maps, which could make the body super competative in 2020. Texas House is an outside shot as it all of a sudden finds itself not super gerrymandered anymore.

The NC legislature won't flip even under a ''fair map'', democrats tried to win the senate last year and hoped that the new map would hand them a majority, but they failed anyway, the main problem is that dems are very concentred in large urban counties

NC GOP is running out of Anglos because the Tar Heel State is becoming more & more biracial each & everyday.

You have also a big influx of white, older, conservative voters from other states, it's why NC is not really trending either way.

Anyway concerning the legislature, the fact that dems are more and more reliant on minorities in big cities will only deepen their problem, winning Charlotte 65/30 rather than 60/40 won't net them any new seats.

NC Dems will win back control of the NC General Assembly sooner or later, I'm not crossing it off as a lost cause just yet.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: Frenchrepublican on June 11, 2019, 03:56:48 pm
MN and VA Senate are all but assured. VA House is likely. Republicans probably get the Montana Governorship too.

Supreme Court will probably rule that they won't touch the North Carolina maps, so I expect the challenge to move to the overwhelmingly Democratic North Carolina Supreme Court were I expect them to strike down their state legislative maps, which could make the body super competative in 2020. Texas House is an outside shot as it all of a sudden finds itself not super gerrymandered anymore.

The NC legislature won't flip even under a ''fair map'', democrats tried to win the senate last year and hoped that the new map would hand them a majority, but they failed anyway, the main problem is that dems are very concentred in large urban counties

NC GOP is running out of Anglos because the Tar Heel State is becoming more & more biracial each & everyday.

You have also a big influx of white, older, conservative voters from other states, it's why NC is not really trending either way.

Anyway concerning the legislature, the fact that dems are more and more reliant on minorities in big cities will only deepen their problem, winning Charlotte 65/30 rather than 60/40 won't net them any new seats.

NC Dems will win back control of the NC General Assembly sooner or later, I'm not crossing it off as a lost cause just yet.

Sooner or later is very vague, TBH I think that the TX House will flip before the NC House


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: Oryxslayer on June 11, 2019, 06:34:20 pm
In 2018 NC Dems got almost everything in both chambers that is part of Wake and Mecklenburg and while there are a pair of seats still to gain (both in the Senate), they are geographically constrained in that regard. Most of the dem gains in the state are coming from those two counties. County nesting prevents a remap from changing the fundamental seat distribution,  but might help lock down the seats by unpacking the core.

Its outside of the main hubs that dems could, and might I stress could, gain from a remap. Two more dem seats should probably exist in the Winston-Salem/Greensboro area if R's didn't pack the cities in, another in High Point if the city wasn't cracked, and then one other could maybe be found in the east in either Wilmington or Greenville areas. But that still leaves the dems two seats short on the house side of things for a chamber flip, and they still need to defend seats like their last rural one in the Western mountains outside of Ashville and Boone.

On the senate side, a remap leaves dems in a similar position. They currently have two easy targets in the Franklin - North Wake and South Mecklenburg seats they missed in 2018, which brings the count to 23. There is then the potential to get three more seats, one in the Black belt, one in the Winston-Salem/Greensboro area, and one Southwest of Fayetteville, but even then then dems still need to defend marginals and fight hard for a majority of one.

Without remaps, dems have a ceiling in both chambers close to 52-48 Republican. The big problem for dems is just growth really. The state was only on the cusp of becoming competitive in 2008, and Obama won it in a wave. There was also still some juice in the ancestral dem tanks, be that retired/old white dems who are now dead, or rural whites who finalized their transition to the republicans. The maps have to be drawn with those 2010 demographics. Since then, the areas most democratic or with dem swings have only grown. A fair map probably is a pure tossup/tiniest tilt dem in 2020 with seat redistribution. But, NC won't get fair maps without the political situation as it currently is in NC basically remaining the same (Dem Courts, Dem Executive, R non-super majorities) or only moving in the Dems direction. So a gerry on the same level as the present map with 2020 distribution probably falls in a dem year in the vein of 2018.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: R.P. McM on June 12, 2019, 01:25:50 am
VA and MN are the safest choices here.  Technically MN Dems need 1 fewer seats, but I don't know how the legislative maps compare.

The biggest difference: VA Dems need to flip two chambers. One of which was up in 2017, and retained a two-seat GOP majority. In contrast, the MN House now has a 16-seat DFL majority. But there are plenty of vulnerable suburban seats in both states, so in all likelihood, all three chambers flip.

VA can be won by winning clinton seats.

MN requires winning quite a few Trump seats.

MN requires retaining some Trump seats that were retained in 2016, and/or winning some territory where the GOP was massacred in 2018. Netting two seats in a chamber that wasn't up in 2018, but corresponds exactly to a chamber in which the DFL now enjoys a 16-seat majority. In VA, Democrats have to flip a chamber they couldn't flip in 2017. A D+9 electoral result in both states translated to legislative majorities of +16 and -2, respectively. I'm not exactly sure how this corresponds to the 2016 presidential results, but I suspect the difference owes to the court-drawn MN map. Still, I predict Democrats hold all three chambers by 2021.

This is a little short sighted.

The -2 in the House of Dels was literally decided by a draw from a hat after one district had a tie. There was a 50-50 chance of Ds winning that draw and, in turn, winning the chamber (tiebreaker Lt. Gov is a D).

In addition to that, they still gained ~15 seats in one round.

And the DFL gained 18 seats, and a 16-seat majority. Don't get me wrong ó I think all three chambers will flip. But I don't think VA Democrats have quite as easy a task. In 2020, turnout will be high, and the election will be all about Trump, for better or worse. But 2019? I guarantee you, Republicans will attempt to drag Ralph Northam and Justin Fairfax into the spotlight. And they might succeed. Point being, assuming a uniform swing, the DFL is in better shape than the VA Dems. Assuming Northam and Fairfax factor in, there's every reason to believe a MN trifecta is equally, if not more likely than a VA trifecta.


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: cvparty on June 12, 2019, 02:35:24 pm
MN and VA Senate are all but assured. VA House is likely. Republicans probably get the Montana Governorship too.

Supreme Court will probably rule that they won't touch the North Carolina maps, so I expect the challenge to move to the overwhelmingly Democratic North Carolina Supreme Court were I expect them to strike down their state legislative maps, which could make the body super competative in 2020. Texas House is an outside shot as it all of a sudden finds itself not super gerrymandered anymore.

The NC legislature won't flip even under a ''fair map'', democrats tried to win the senate last year and hoped that the new map would hand them a majority, but they failed anyway, the main problem is that dems are very concentred in large urban counties

NC GOP is running out of Anglos because the Tar Heel State is becoming more & more biracial each & everyday.

You have also a big influx of white, older, conservative voters from other states, it's why NC is not really trending either way.

Anyway concerning the legislature, the fact that dems are more and more reliant on minorities in big cities will only deepen their problem, winning Charlotte 65/30 rather than 60/40 won't net them any new seats.
you know meckís dem trend is because of a massive swing in the suburbs right? same for wake. itís plausible that every seat in both counties will be dem-held in the near future. plus both are growing crazy fast, which will result in constantly increasing representation


Title: Re: Predict trifecta status in 2020
Post by: DPKdebator on June 13, 2019, 07:35:14 pm
New Hampshire is possible, even likely, as long as the D nominee is competent.

Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire are the obvious choices to become trifectas.   After that I'd say Arizona has the biggest chance to "lose" trifecta status, followed by Montana. 

Not much else on the table after those five.   Kansas GOP losing it's supermajority in the State House could happen though.

Long Shots:  TX State House flipping,  NC Gov flipping, IA state House Flipping.   


New Hampshire is not an "obvious choice" or likely to become a Democratic trifecta, Sununu is running for reelection and it is highly unlikely that he loses in 2020.

I wouldn't be so sure.   NH gov doesn't have the same kind of big profile other state govs have.   He's definitely not that popular with state party officials.   I personally think the last two candidates the NH dems ran for gov were both flops too.   

I wouldn't be surprised to see Sununu go down next year.

Sununu's one of the most popular governors in the country, I highly doubt he'll lose reelection.