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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Gubernatorial/State Elections => Topic started by: ctherainbow on June 14, 2019, 11:04:59 PM



Title: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on June 14, 2019, 11:04:59 PM
Considering how much fun I had making a breakdown of the 2018 PA State legislative election, I thought I'd do it again for 2020, and start earlier this time that so I'm not rushing as much, and have more time to research individual races.  In addition, there are several elections for statewide office; a packed race to succeed outgoing Democratic Auditor General Eugene DePasquale, as well as the races for Attorney General and State Treasurer, which both feature Democratic incumbents running for their second terms.

Statewide Elections:


Auditor General:

Democrat:  Nina Ahmad
Democrat:  Scott Conklin
Democrat:  Rosie Davis
Democrat:  Tracie Fountain
Democrat:  Christina Hartman
Democrat:  Michael Lamb
Republican:  Timothy DeFoor

Statewide, Pennsylvania is a Tilt D state, but the office of the Auditor General has been controlled by Democrats for all but 8 years since 1961, and continually since 1997.  Now, this year should be rather interesting, as there's a crowded Democratic primary field with candidates from across the state, facing off against a lone black Republican County Controller from the Capital area.  There are also PoC on the Democratic side; Tracie Fountain is also from the Capital area, while Nina Ahmad from Philadelphia is a Bangladeshi immigrant with a powerful backstory.  Christina Hartman is from Lancaster, a key area in Pennsylvania that's been trending leftward, and she embarked on a county-by-county tour of the state earlier this year while gathering nominating petition signatures.  Also running is Michael Lamb, the current Pittsburgh City Controller, and uncle of Western PA political superstar Conor Lamb, as well as Scott Conklin, a State College area state representative.  Rounding out the primary is Rose Davis, of Monroe County, who I could not find much information on, and whose campaign website triggers a security alert in my browser.

In terms of the contested Democratic primary, from what I have been able to deduce from party "insiders", geographical weight, and petition returns, it appears that Ahmad, Hartman, and Lamb likely are the top tier candidates, and I would give the edge to Lamb, though that may just be my own pessimism around female candidates' election chances.

So overall, while I am somewhat confident that Democrats will retain this office, a face-off between DeFoor and a candidate like Conklin, who hails from a relatively non-critical portion of the state when it comes to the overall battlegrounds, could be very close.  A good portion of the results of this race will depend on the state of the presidential race in PA, so we should have a clearer picture of the race later this summer, but for now:   Tilt D.

Attorney General:

Democrat:  Josh Shapiro (I)
Republican:  Heather Heidelbaugh

In the Attorney General race, relatively popular incumbent Josh Shapiro is facing off against Republican Heather Heidelbaugh, an attorney who is also a former member of the Allegheny County council, and also a vocal critic of Trump in many key areas.  While I'm sure her criticism of Trump will help her out in the suburbs, it will likely harm her in the more blood red areas of the state.  Again, turnout for this race will be very dependent on presidential turnout, but I expect Shapiro to be able to hang on to his office for a second term.   Lean D.

State Treasurer:

Democrat:  Joseph Torsella (I)
Republican:  Stacy Garrity

The State Treasurer race features Democratic incumbent Joe Torsella, first elected in 2016, versus military veteran Stacy Garrity.  Both candidates are running on similar platforms of transparency and assisting college and vocational students in saving to make college affordable.  Garrity has called for Torsella to sign a pledge that he will serve his full term if re-elected, in a bid to cast him as a political climber using the office as a springboard to run for governor in 2024(which she may not be wrong about).  Torsella is a well-respected community leader from Philadelphia, though, and has avoided any major scandals during his first term, so he should be able to pull off a re-election win.  Lean D.


State Legislature:

The PA state legislature consists of 50 Senators, elected to 4-year terms, staggered so that only half the seats are contested per election(2020 will feature the odd-numbered seats), and 203 Representatives, each serving a 2-year term, and each up for election every cycle.  A total of 228 seats will be contested in 2020.

The current partisan makeup of the state Senate is 21D/28R/1I.  The state House is 93D/110R.

(All predictions are early projections only, and are color-coded in non-Atlas colors)

Let's take a look at the Senate seats that are up for election:

Current Partisan Composition:  21D/28R/1I

()

District 1:

Democrat:  Larry Farnese (I)
Democrat:  Nikil Saval

This Philadelphia district is solidly Democratic, and incumbent Farnese, who's held the seat since 2008, won his last contested general election with over 80% of the vote.  He faces a primary challenge, but no general election opponent.  Strong D.

District 3:

Democrat:  Sharif Street (I)

Another Philadelphia district, this one was the longtime seat of well-known legislator Shirley Kitchen until her retirement in 2018.  Current incumbent Sharif Street has no opponents who have filed to run against him.  Strong D.

District 5:

Democrat:  John Sabatina Jr (I)

Also in Philadelphia, District 5 encompasses more conservative areas of the city, but even the conservative areas of Philadelphia pushed incumbent Sabatina to 67% of the vote in 2016.  Sabatina has no registered opponents.  Strong D.

District 7:

Democrat:  Vincent Hughes (I)
Democrat:  Devon Cade

Partly in Philadelphia, but also snaking into Montgomery County, District 7 is also very Democratic.  The last time this district was contested, it went 85% Democrat, and should stay Democrat, even if Hughes falls in the primary.  Strong D.


District 9:

Democrat:  Brett Burman
Democrat:  John Kane
Democrat:  Robert McKinstry Jr
Republican:  Thomas Killion (I)

District 9 is going to be an exciting district to watch.  Located in Delaware and Chester counties, this district has not had a Democratic representative since 1873.  However, incumbent Killion won his first full term in the seat with only 51% of the vote in 2016, and the district had been a competitive district before then.  Given the Philly suburbs' swing since 2016, this district is the prime pickup opportunity for Dems, and three have officially filed for the primary.  Tilt D.

Democratic Challengers:
https://www.delcotimes.com/news/democratic-challenger-emerges-in-th-state-senate-district/article_4d01eac2-93a3-11e9-942f-17bf2a9d4e80.html (https://www.delcotimes.com/news/democratic-challenger-emerges-in-th-state-senate-district/article_4d01eac2-93a3-11e9-942f-17bf2a9d4e80.html)
https://www.delcotimes.com/news/local/labor-leader-kane-eyes-dem-nod-to-challenge-killion/article_70497afe-e61e-11e9-ba86-dfb35f3d830b.html (https://www.delcotimes.com/news/local/labor-leader-kane-eyes-dem-nod-to-challenge-killion/article_70497afe-e61e-11e9-ba86-dfb35f3d830b.html)

District 11:

Democrat:  Judy Schwank (I)
Republican:  Annette Baker

A Berks County district that includes the city of Reading, District 11 represents a move back to more Democratic territory.  Incumbent Schwank was unopposed in 2016, but beat a Republican challenger in 2012 with nearly 65% of the vote.  Strong D.

District 13:

Democrat:  Craig Lehman
Democrat:  Janet Temin
Republican:  Scott Martin (I)

District 13 is further west, in Lancaster County, which is home of both famed Amish settlements and conservative farm country, as well as the artsy and relatively progressive city of Lancaster.  While it's a consistently Republican district, it's not overwhelmingly so, and previous elections have seen the Republican candidate win with around 55% of the vote.  Lean R.

District 15:

Democrat:  George Scott
Democrat:  Alvin Taylor Sr
Republican:  John DiSanto (I)

Containing Perry County and most of Dauphin County, District 15 is an extremely competitive one.  Both the 2012 election, won by a Democrat, and the 2016 election, won by a Republican, were decided by about 3 points.  While the electoral environment will likely be more favorable to Democrats than in 2016, Republican Scott Perry had a strong showing in the 2018 US Congressional race that covered the Dauphin County portion of this district.  However, with DiSanto stumbling over a property tax delinquency faux pas, and an intense Congressional race shaping up up-ballot, this district should be a close one on Election Night.  Tossup.

DiSanto Property Tax Delinquency:
https://www.pennlive.com/news/2019/08/pa-state-senator-brother-to-pay-delinquent-14k-property-tax-bill.html (https://www.pennlive.com/news/2019/08/pa-state-senator-brother-to-pay-delinquent-14k-property-tax-bill.html)

District 17:

Democrat:  Daylin Leach (I)
Democrat:  Elvira Berry
Democrat:  Amanda Cappeletti
Democrat:  Parthenia Izzard
Republican:  Ellen Fisher

District 17 is located in the Philly suburb counties of Delaware and Montgomery, and is reliably Democratic(about 63%).  Incumbent Leach actually improved his margins from 2012 to 2016, but I could see him going down in the primary, as he has been accused of sexually inappropriate workplace behavior.  Likely D.

District 19:

Democrat:  Andy Dinniman (I)(Retiring)
Democrat:  Kyle Boyer
Democrat:  Carolyn Comitta
Democrat:  Don Vymazal II
Republican:  Kevin Runey
Republican:  Amber Turner

District 19 pushes us further out from the Philly metro area into Chester County, the richest county in Pennsylvania.  While not an extremely Democratic area, the district has given incumbent Dinniman 12 and 15 point victories in the past two election cycles, and despite his retirement, all indications are that this suburban district should hold for Dems.  Likely D.

District 21:

Democrat:  Shelbie Stromyer
Republican:  Scott Hutchinson (I)

A northwestern district that sprawls from Pennsylvania's northern border almost all the way down to Pittsburgh, the 21st is a reliably Republican district, and includes Clarion, Forest, and Venango counties, as well as parts of Butler and Warren counties.  The current incumbent ran unopposed in both 2012 and 2016, and though he's being challenged this cycle, I expect him to still be holding the seat in 2021.  Strong R.

District 23:

Democrat:  Jackie Baker
Republican:  Gene Yaw (I)

Another sprawling district, but further east this time, District 23 covers Bradford, Lycoming, Sullivan, and Union counties, as well as western parts of my home county, Susquehanna.  This heavily Republican district(about 2 to 1 Republican), is unlikely to flip.  Strong R.

District 25:

Democrat:  Margaret Brown
Republican:  Joe Scarnati (I)(Retiring)
Republican:  James Brown
Republican:  Cris Dush
Republican:  John Suplizio

Filling in between the 21st and 23rd districts along the state's northern border, the 25th District is arguably the most conservative of the three.  Made up of Cameron, Clinton, Elk, Jefferson, McKean, Potter, and Tioga counties, plus part of Clearfield County, this district gave current incumbent Scarnati nearly 75% of the vote in his last re-election bid.  Though he is retiring, I don't see that the seat being open will move the needle anywhere near competitiveness.  Strong R.

District 27:

Democrat:  Michelle Siegel
Republican:  John Gordner (I)

District 27 contains Columbia, Montour, Northumberland, and Snyder counties, as well as a little chunk of non-urban Luzerne County.  While not as overwhelmingly rural as some districts, 27 is devoid of any major urban centers, and is another heavily Republican district.  Incumbent Gordner has not been challenged for this seat in over a decade.  Strong R.

District 29:

Republican:  Dave Argall (I)

Containing all of Schuylkill County and non-Reading portions of Berks County, District 29 sits on the edge of competitiveness, but Argall has not drawn an apparent opponent this cycle.  Strong R.

District 31:

Democrat:  John Bosha
Democrat:  Richard Coplen
Democrat:  Shanna Danielson
Republican:  Mike Regan (I)

Stretching from the Cumberland County Harrisburg suburbs deep into York County, this south-central district avoids the city of York, and is heavily Republican.  Having given incumbent Regan almost 65% of the vote in 2016, it's likely the district will give him a repeat win in 2020.  Strong R.

District 33:

Democrat:  Richard Sterner
Republican:  Doug Mastriano (I)

Incumbent Mastriano was elected to this Adams County based district in a special election earlier this year.  The district also includes portions of Cumberland, Franklin, and York counties, and gives Republicans about 70% of the vote.  Strong R.

District 35:

Democrat:  Shaun Dougherty
Republican:  Wayne Langerholc (I)

District 35 was Democratic-controlled from its inception until 2016, when then-incumbent John Wozniak, perhaps sensing the rural/small-city Democrat extirpation that was coming, retired.  Current incumbent Langerholc flipped the district with 62% of the vote in this Bedford, Cambria, and partial Clearfield County district.  I doubt he'll be unseated in 2020.  Likely R.

District 37:

Democrat:  Pam Iovino (I)
Republican:  Jeffrey Neff
Republican:  Devlin Robinson

This swing district, which contains parts of Allegheny and Washington counties, was the site of a major coup for Pennsylvania Democrats earlier in 2019, when Pam Iovino was elected by a 4% margin to fill the vacant seat left by Republican Guy Reschenthaler, who was elected to the US House.  Having changed hands between the parties many times since its inception, this district is the GOP's best pickup opportunity, and could easily flip.  Tilt D.

District 39:

Democrat:  Tay Waltenbaugh
Republican:  Kim Ward (I)

Encompassing most of Westmoreland County in the southwestern part of the state, this district was a longtime Democratic district until the 2000s.  Incumbent Ward's last seriously contested election was in 2008, when she was first elected with 54% of the vote.  However, this area has trended Republican since then, and I don't expect her to lose in 2020.  Likely R.

Democratic Challenger:
https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/supporters-gather-around-as-tay-waltenbaugh-announces-state-senate-run-in-jeannette/ (https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/supporters-gather-around-as-tay-waltenbaugh-announces-state-senate-run-in-jeannette/)

District 41:

Democrat:  Anthony Deloreto
Republican:  Joe Pittman (I)

District 41 consists of Armstrong and Indiana counties, plus parts of Butler and Westmoreland counties. The district should stay in GOP hands, as it did in the special election earlier this year, since about two-thirds of the district votes Republican.  Strong R.

District 43:

Democrat:  Jay Costa Jr (I)
Democrat:  William Brittain

This heavily Democratic Allegheny County district includes parts of the city of Pittsburgh, and has been sending Jay Costa to the state capitol since I was 3 years old(1996).  There's no indication that's going to change in 2020.  Strong D.

District 45:

Democrat:  Jim Brewster (I)
Republican:  Nicole Ziccarelli

Another Allegheny County district that also includes a small part of Westmoreland County, this district is far less Democratic than the neighboring District 43.  Given that the incumbent only won election to the seat with 53% in 2010, it really surprises me that he hasn't been challenged in either of his two elections since then.  He's had time to get entrenched now, but if he draws a strong challenger and the up-ballot GOP performs well in Western PA, this race could be the State Senate GOP's second-best pickup opportunity, though it's probably a longshot.  Likely D.

District 47:

Democrat:  John Krizan III
Republican:  Elder Vogel (I)

Squashed against the Ohio border, District 47 includes Lawrence County, as well as parts of Beaver and Butler counties.  While not overwhelmingly Republican, this district has generally voted close to 58% GOP in recent elections, so I expect it to be a hold for Vogel.  Likely R.

District 48:

(Special election January 14th)

Republican:  Dave Arnold - 64.7%(W)  
Democrat:  Michael Schroeder - 35.3%

In a seat that hadn't been scheduled to be in play until 2022, the resignation of former State Senator Mike Folmer over child porn charges threw this seat into contention, with both parties scrambling to field candidates for the January 14th special election.  This badly gerrymandered district encompasses Lebanon County, as well as portions of Dauphin and York Counties, and is a very Republican district, voting nearly two-thirds Republican in 2018.  It did not buck this trend in 2020, electing Republican Lebanon County District Attorney Dave Arnold to the seat.  Republican Hold

District 49:

Democrat:  Andre Horton
Democrat:  Julie Slomski
Republican:  Daniel Laughlin (I)

This district is located in Erie County, including the city of Erie, and has swung between the major parties several times.  This swing again occurred in 2016, when the current incumbent defeated then-incumbent Sean Wiley, who had won the seat with 60% of the vote in 2012.  This district is a critical bellweather for how 2020 Election Night in PA will go, and I expect it to be bitterly contested.  Tossup.

Summary of District Analysis:

(Map will be added)

Strong D: 1, 3, 5, 7, 11, 43
Likely D: 17, 19, 45
Lean D:
Tilt D: 9, 37
Tossup: 15, 49
Tilt R:
Lean R: 13
Likely R: 35, 39, 47
Strong R: 21, 23, 25, 27, 29, 31, 33, 41

()

Potential State Senate 2021:

Good Dem Result: 24/25/1
Neutral Result: 22/27/1
Good GOP Result: 20/29/1

The fight for the PA State Senate looked to be vicious this cycle, as there were exactly enough very competitive seats up for re-election to determine control of the Senate, before Democratic State Senator John Yudichak's defection from the party in November 2019 to become an independent.  As of now, the best Democrats likely have the ability to do is hold District 37 and flip Districts 9, 15, and 49.  If Republicans hold the Lean R District 13, they keep control of the Senate, and if the night goes well for them, they could expand their majority to 29 seats.  It looks like Republicans will keep at least narrow control of the state senate in the 2020 cycle.

Chance Of Control:  10%D/90%R


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on June 14, 2019, 11:05:26 PM
The entire State House is up for election:

Current Partisan Composition:  93D/110R

()

District 1:

Democrat:  Patrick Harkins (I)

Very Democratic Erie city district.  Strong D.

District 2:

Democrat:  Robert Merski (I)

Very Democratic Erie city district.  Strong D.

District 3:

Democrat:  Ryan Bizzarro (I)
Republican:  Greg Hayes

Relatively Democratic Erie County district.  Strong D.

District 4:

Republican:  Curtis Sonney (I)

Relatively Republican Erie County district.  Strong R.

District 5:

Democrat:  Graham Gonzales
Republican:  Barry Jozwiak (I)

Relatively Republican Berks County district.  Likely R.

District 6:

Democrat:  Matthew Ferrence
Republican:  Bradley Roae (I)

Relatively Republican Crawford and Erie County district.  Strong R.

District 7:

Democrat:  Mark Longietti (I)

Recently uncontested Mercer County district.  Rating only indicative of uncontested status; needs more research.  Strong D.

District 8:

(Special election March 17th)

Democrat:  Phillip Heasley
Republican:  Tedd Nesbit (I)(Resigning January 2020)
Republican:  Timothy Bonner
Republican:  Scott Jaillet

Very Republican Mercer/Butler County district.  Nesbit was charged with a DUI late last year after the election, so we'll have to see if he makes it through the primary.  If he does, this district might be more competitive, but I honestly don't see it going blue even with a criminal GOP candidate.  (Edit: He ran for and won a judicial position, so he's vacating the seat in January 2020.  Should still be a GOP hold).  Strong R.

Retirement:
http://www.butlereagle.com/article/20191202/NEWS12/712029884 (http://www.butlereagle.com/article/20191202/NEWS12/712029884)

District 9:

Democrat:  Chris Sainato (I)
Republican:  Carol Ryan

Democratic-leaning Lawrence County district.  Republicans have already started targeted ad buys in his district, indicating that they intend to hit Sainato hard in 2020.  Lean D.

District 10:

Democrat:  Kolbe Cole
Republican:  Aaron Bernstine (I)

Swingy Beaver/Butler/Lawrence County district.  Was held by Democrats from 1975 to 2016, when it was flipped by the current incumbent.  Bernstine managed to snag the Democratic nomination as well as the Republican nomination in 2018 due to a successful write-in campaign, so he clearly has some crossover appeal, and may be harder to unseat.  Lean R.

District 11:

Republican:  Marci Mustello (I)

Relatively Republican Butler County district, where former incumbent Brian Ellis was replaced in a special election after allegations of sexual assault.  Likely R.

District 12:  

Republican:  Daryl Metcalfe (I)

Another relatively Republican Butler County district, this one represented by infamous heterosexual Daryl Metcalfe, who you may know from his meltdown over another legislator touching his arm, and who has called fellow representative Brian Sims a “lying homosexual”.  Likely R.

District 13:

Republican:  John Lawrence (I)

District 13 contains portions of Lancaster and Chester counties, and leans Republican.  Lean R.

District 14:

Republican:  Jim Marshall (I)

A weirdly shaped Beaver/Butler County district, this one looks like a safe Republican hold.  Strong R.

District 15:

Republican:  Joshua Kail (I)

District 15 covers portions of Beaver and Washington counties, and is Republican enough that its new GOP incumbent shouldn't be ousted.  Strong R.

District 16:

Democrat:  Robert Matzie (I)

Relatively Democratic Allegheny/Beaver County district.  Likely D.

District 17:

Republican:  Parke Wentling (I)

Very Republican Crawford/Erie/Lawrence/Mercer County district.  Strong R.

District 18:

Republican:  Gene DiGirolamo (I)(Resigning January 2020)

A Bucks County swing district that before last cycle, hadn't been contested in a decade.  However, incumbent DiGirolamo, who has represented the district since 1995, will be retiring to become a Bucks County commissioner, which should make the district significantly more competitive.  Tilt D.

Incumbent retiring to take commissioner seat: http://www.buckscountyvotes.org/ (http://www.buckscountyvotes.org/)

District 19:

Democrat:  Jake Wheatley Jr. (I)

Extremely Democratic Pittsburgh city district.  Strong D.

District 20:

Democrat:  Adam Ravenstahl (I)

Very Democratic Pittsburgh-based Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 21:

Democrat:  Sara Innamorato (I)

Very Democratic Pittsburgh-based Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 22:

Democrat:  Peter Schweyer (I)

Very Democratic Allentown district.  Strong D.

District 23:

Democrat:  Dan Frankel (I)

Very Democratic Pittsburgh city district.  Strong D.

District 24:

Democrat:  Edward Gainey (I)

Very Democratic, majority Pittsburgh, Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 25:

Democrat:  Brandon Markosek (I)

Democratic-leaning Allegheny County district.  Likely D.

District 26:

Republican:  Timothy Hennessey (I)

A Chester/Montgomery County district, this is a very swingy area.  Incumbent Henessey fended off his latest challenger by 5 points last cycle, but his margins tightened a bunch, and he'd be right to be worried if Dems have another good cycle in 2020.  Tilt R.

District 27:

Democrat:  Daniel Deasy Jr (I)

Very Democratic Pittsburgh-based Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 28:

Republican:  Mike Turzai (I)(Retiring)

Republican-leaning Allegheny County district.  Turzai, current Speaker of the State House, had a strong challenge last cycle, and has inexplicably decided to retire.  I imagine the state GOP will focus on this race to avoid the embarrassment of losing the outgoing Speaker's seat.  Lean R.

Retirement notice:  https://www.wgal.com/article/speculation-grows-about-pennsylvania-house-speaker-mike-turzais-future/30644084 (https://www.wgal.com/article/speculation-grows-about-pennsylvania-house-speaker-mike-turzais-future/30644084)

District 29:

Republican:  Meghan Schroeder (I)

A northern Bucks County district, District 29 is a swing district.  Current incumbent Schroeder only pulled out a four-point win last cycle, so she'll have to work to hold this district again.  Tilt R.

District 30:

Republican:  Lori Mizgorski (I)

A swing Allegheny County district that has the potential to flip.  Like District 29, the current incumbent won by four points last cycle.  Tilt R.

District 31:

Democrat:  Perry Warren (I)

Another Bucks County district.  This one was really tight in 2016 as an open district, but swung 10 points Dem in 2018, so unless the night goes very well for the GOP, I don't expect it to flip.  Lean D.

District 32:

Democrat:  Anthony DeLuca (I)

Very Democratic Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 33:

Democrat:  Frank Dermody (I)

A swingy Allegheny/Westmoreland County district; incumbent Dermody has almost continually faced strong challenges, but should be able to hold the seat this cycle.  Lean D.

District 34:

Democrat:  Summer Lee (I)

Very Democratic partial Pittsburgh Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 35:

Democrat:  Austin Davis (I)

Relatively Democratic Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 36:

Democrat:  Harry Readshaw III (I)(Retiring)

Very Democratic Pittsburgh-based Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

Retirement announcement:  https://www.wtae.com/article/pennsylvania-state-rep-harry-readshaw-of-pittsburgh-will-retire/30433071 (https://www.wtae.com/article/pennsylvania-state-rep-harry-readshaw-of-pittsburgh-will-retire/30433071)

District 37:

Republican:  Mindy Fee (I)

Very Republican Lancaster County district(including HersheyPark).  Mindy Fee garnered over 70% of the vote in her last three contested elections, and the area is full of upper class Republicans.  Strong R.

District 38:

Democrat:  William Kortz II (I)

Very Democratic Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 39:

Republican:  Michael Puskaric (I)

Partial Allegheny/Washington County district that leans Republican, but not by a whole lot.  Lean R.

District 40:

Republican:  Natalie Mihalik (I)

Partial Allegheny/Washington County district.  Relatively Republican, but not overwhelmingly so.  Likely R.

District 41:

Republican:  Brett Miller (I)

Relatively Republican Lancaster County district, that saw its tightest margin of victory in a decade last cycle.  This is south-central PA Amish country, though, so I don't see it being elastic enough to flip.  Lean R.

District 42:

Democrat:  Dan Miller (I)

Relatively Democratic Allegheny County district.  Likely D.

District 43:

Republican:  Keith Greiner (I)

Another Lancaster County Amish country district, but this one has a harder right lean.  Strong R.

District 44:

Republican:  Valerie Gaydos (I)
Democrat:  Michele Knoll

Slightly Republican-leaning Allegheny County district.  This race was far closer than I expected last cycle, with the current incumbent winning by only four points.  If Dems improve their performance at all this upcoming cycle, this seat could flip, but will 2018 candidate Michele Knoll be able to pull it off this cycle?  Tilt R.

Democratic Challenger:
https://sewickley.triblive.com/user-submitted-content/michele-knoll-announces-candidacy/ (https://sewickley.triblive.com/user-submitted-content/michele-knoll-announces-candidacy/)

District 45:

Democrat:  Anita Astorino Kulik (I)

Very Democratic Allegheny County district.  Strong D.

District 46:

Republican:  Jason Ortitay (I)

In this swingy Allegheny/Washington County district, incumbent Jason Ortitay has a somewhat moderate profile, and fended off his 2018 challenger by more than I expected.  Lean R.

District 47:

Republican:  Keith Gillespie (I)

York County district which leans hard enough Republican that Gillespie shouldn't face much of a challenge getting re-elected.  Strong R.

District 48:

Republican:  Timothy O'Neal (I)

Washington County district that is pretty moderate.  However, Incumbent O'Neal had an impressive showing last cycle, so it looks like he'd need a strong challenger or serious national headwinds to be in danger.  Lean R.

District 49:

Republican:  Bud Cook (I)

Fayette/Washington County swing district that was decided by exactly 11 votes last cycle.  This has to be a top target for the state Dem party, and I expect them to recruit a good challenger and put money into this race.  Tossup.

District 50:

Democrat:  Pam Snyder (I)

In this Southwest PA district that covers Green County and parts of Fayette/Washington County, incumbent Snyder has managed to hang onto this rural/ancestral Dem area for the last few cycles, including a six-point win in 2016.  However, with Trump already winning her district's counties in 2016 by hefty margins, expect significant pressure on Snyder.  Tilt D.

Summary of District Analysis:

Strong D: 1, 2, 3, 7, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 27, 32, 34, 35, 36, 38, 45, 70, 77, 95, 96, 103, 113, 118, 126, 127, 132, 135, 136, 140, 149, 153, 154, 159, 164, 166, 172, 173, 174, 175, 179, 180, 181, 182, 184, 185, 186, 188, 190, 191, 192, 194, 195, 197, 198, 200, 201, 202, 203
Likely D: 16, 25, 42, 55, 74, 112, 114, 121, 133, 141, 148
Lean D: 9, 31, 33, 115, 146, 150, 156, 157, 161, 177
Tilt D: 18, 50, 61, 72, 119, 155, 158, 163
Tossup: 49, 53, 131, 143, 144, 151, 160, 162, 165, 167, 178
Tilt R: 18, 26, 29, 30, 44, 71, 105, 160, 168, 170
Lean R: 10, 13, 28, 39, 41, 46, 48, 51, 58, 76, 87, 104, 106, 120, 129, 137, 142, 145, 147, 152, 176, 183
Likely R: 5, 11, 12, 40, 52, 54, 56, 62, 73, 79, 83, 88, 97, 122, 123, 128, 134, 138, 171, 187, 189, 199
Strong R: 4, 6, 8, 14, 15, 17, 37, 43, 47, 57, 59, 60, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 75, 78, 80, 81, 82, 84, 85, 86, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 116, 117, 124, 125, 130, 139, 169, 193, 196

()

Potential State House 2021:

Good Dem Result: 108/95
Neutral Result: 93/110
Good GOP Result: 82/121

While PA Democrats have only a minor chance at flipping the State Senate, they have a better chance of flipping the State House, though there are a large number of recently flipped swing House districts to defend in Southeast PA, and other GOP seats that looked vulnerable last cycle have incumbents that successfully dug in and slugged it out to victory in 2018.  On the plus side for Dems, there are fewer rural/ancestral Dem seats to defend.  Both parties will likely be focusing on the Philly burbs again, because the path to expansion of either party's House contingent lies primarily through Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware, and Chester counties, with a few other seats across the rest of the Commonwealth.

Chance Of Control:  35%D/65%R


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on June 14, 2019, 11:05:38 PM
District 51:

Republican:  Matthew Dowling (I)

A partial Fayette/Somerset County district in Southwest PA.  Current incumbent Dowling knocked out the former Democratic incumbent in 2016, and actually managed to improve his margin of victory in 2018.  This seat may be gone for the Dems at this point.  Lean R.

District 52:

Republican:  Ryan Warner (I)

Fayette/Westmoreland County district that has only leaned Republican in the past.  However, incumbent Warner keeps improving his performance in this seat, including a 22-point victory last cycle.  Likely R.

District 53:

Democrat:  Steven Malagari (I)

Montgomery County district that was a nailbiter last cycle.  The district had been sending its former Republican incumbent to Harrisburg with about 60% of the vote, but after he retired, the Democratic candidate to replace him, with the help of a Libertarian, managed to squeak out a 51.1% victory.  The outcome of this seat is likely going to hinge on how well up-ballot Dems perform on election night.  Tossup.

District 54:

Republican:  Robert Brooks (I)

Yet another Allegheny/Westmoreland County district, this one has a Republican lean that should keep it on the GOP side of the aisle.  Last cycle knocked the Republican below 60% of the vote for the first time in a long time, but it would take a complete blowout to flip this seat.  Likely R.

District 55:

Democrat:  Joseph Petrarca (I)

Armstrong/Indiana/Westmoreland County district that leans Democratic enough downballot that it should be a hold for Petrarca.  However, the state GOP is targeting him with early ad buys, and this district, although trending a teensy bit blue, could present a challenge for Petrarca if the day goes south for Dems.  Lean D.

District 56:

Republican:  George Dunbar (I)

Westmoreland County district that could be competitive with an A-list challenger and wave year, but is otherwise pretty safe.  Likely R.

District 57:

Republican:  Eric Nelson (I)

Solidly Republican Westmoreland County district.  Nelson has faced challenges every recent election cycle, and easily defeated them all.  He should win with no problem.  Strong R.

District 58:

Republican:  Justin Walsh (I)(Resigning January 2020)
Democrat:  Ken Bach
Democrat:  Robert Prah

District 58 is another Westmoreland County district, that's more competitive than District 57.  While the district was represented by a Democrat until 2016, incumbent Walsh managed to improve his share of the vote from 2016 to 2018, albeit against the same challenger.  However, he is resigning, so the seat will be open next year.  Lean R.

Retirement:  https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/westmoreland-could-add-special-election-for-state-house-seat-to-aprils-primary-ballot/ (https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/westmoreland-could-add-special-election-for-state-house-seat-to-aprils-primary-ballot/)

District 59:

Republican:  Mike Reese (I)

Somerset/Westmoreland County district that is solidly conservative.  Strong R.

District 60:

Republican:  Jeffrey Pyle (I)

Heavily Republican Armstrong/Butler/Indiana County district.  Strong R.

District 61:

Democrat:  Liz Hanbidge (I)

A Montgomery County district, this is another one where the Democratic candidate in 2018 overperformed expectations.  Current incumbent Hanbidge ousted an 8-term Republican incumbent by about the national predicted GCB margin.  She could have a harder time holding the seat this cycle, and I expect the state Republican Party to target the seat, but I'll give her the edge for now. Tilt D.

District 62:

Republican:  James Struzzi II (I)

Very Republican Indiana County district that has had a few Democratic representatives in the past, but still doesn't look competitive yet this cycle.  Likely R.

District 63:

Republican:  Donna Oberlander (I)

Extremely Republican rural district encompassing parts of Armstrong and Forest counties, plus all of Clarion County.  Strong R.

District 64:

Republican:  R. Lee James (I)

District 64 covers part of Butler County and all of Venango County, and is rural and very Republican.  Strong R.

District 65:

Republican:  Kathy Rapp (I)

Heavily Republican district that covers parts of Crawford and Forest counties, and all of Warren County.  Strong R.

District 66:

Republican:  Cris Dush (I)(Retiring at end of term)

Rural Western PA district covering part of Indiana County and all of Jefferson County.  Extremely Republican.  Strong R.

Incumbent retiring: https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/dush-announces-retirement-in-2020-third-lawmaker-to-call-it-quits-this-november/ (https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/dush-announces-retirement-in-2020-third-lawmaker-to-call-it-quits-this-november/)

District 67:

Republican:  Martin Causer (I)

Northern rural district encompassing Cameron and McKean counties, as well as part of Potter County.  Extremely Republican.  Strong R.

District 68:

Republican:  Clint Owlett (I)

This rural northeast/northcentral district that includes parts of Bradford/Potter County, plus all of Tioga County, regularly gives Republican candidates 3 to 1 vote margins.  Strong R.

District 69:

Republican:  Carl Metzgar (I)

Pennsylvania's sexiest district, District 69 covers parts of Bedford and Somerset counties in Southern PA.  Apparently in Southcentral PA, sexy also means Republican, because nearly 80% of votes were GOP in 2018.  Strong R.

District 70:

Democrat:  Matthew Bradford (I)

Montgomery County district that includes Norristown.  Incumbent Bradford has easily fended off his most recent challengers.  Strong D.

District 71:

Republican:  James Rigby (I)

Partial Cambria and Somerset County district in Western PA that includes the city of Johnstown.  Former Democratic incumbent Bryan Barbin pulled a great 18-point winning margin in 2016 in this ancestral Dem area, then got knocked out last cycle by 5 points.  It might be Pennsyltucky pessimism on my part, but I think this seat has a good chance to stay red in 2020, if not by much.  Tilt R.

District 72:

Democrat:  Frank Burns (I)

Also located in Cambria County, District 72 has broken comfortably for incumbent Burns in the past, but like District 71, showed signs of significant change in 2018.  Burns managed to hold on, but there's blood in the water, and early ad buys by the state GOP point to this seat being a target.  Tilt D.

District 73:

Republican:  Thomas Sankey (I)

Relatively Republican Cambria and Clearfield County district that used to be represented by a Democrat, but when Republican incumbent Sankey was redistricted into the 73rd after 2012, that Democratic incumbent retired and ceded the seat.  Likely R.

District 74:

Democrat:  Dan Williams (I)

A Southeastern PA district in Chester County.  Former Republican incumbent Harry Lewis Jr managed to cling to his seat with narrow margins for several cycles, but he retired before last cycle, and current incumbent Williams flipped the seat with over 60% of the vote.  Likely D.

District 75:

Republican:  Matt Gabler (I)

Heavily Republican Elk County and partial Clearfield County Central PA district.  Strong R.

District 76:

Republican:  Stephanie Borowicz (I)

Covering portions of Centre County and all of Clinton County, District 76 is a mostly rural district that flipped by 8 points last cycle, and is the type of seat flip that helped turn 2018 into an underwhelming performance for PA House Democrats.  It's also the type of seat that's not super likely to flip back given rural trends.  Lean R.

District 77:

Democrat:  H. Scott Conklin (I)

Relatively Democratic Centre County district that includes the city of State College.  Strong D.

District 78:

Republican:  Jesse Topper (I)

A Southcentral PA district that includes parts of Bedford/Franklin County, as well as the entirety of Fulton County.  This is an extremely Republican(80%) district.  Strong R.

District 79:

Republican:  Louis Schmitt Jr. (I)

A Blair County district that includes the city of Altoona; this seat has enough registered Dems to make it look competitive on paper.  However, given Central PA Republican trends, I don't see this district being in play without an extremely favorable environment and strong challenger.  Likely R.

District 80:

Republican:  James Gregory (I)

Also in Blair County, District 80 is much more solidly Republican.  Strong R.

District 81:

Republican:  Richard Irvin (I)

A Central PA district that includes portions of Centre and Mifflin Counties, plus Huntingdon County.  Heavily Republican.  Strong R.

District 82:

Republican:  Johnathan Hershey (I)

Another Central PA district, encompassing Franklin and Mifflin County in part, and the entirety of Juniata County.  District 82 is heavily Republican.  Strong R.

District 83:

Republican:  Jeff Wheeland (I)

A Lycoming County district that includes the city of Williamsport, this was a Democratic seat for six years before the 2014 election, when then-incumbent Richard Mirabito was ousted by ten points by current incumbent Jeff Wheeland.  Wheeland held the seat with 66% of the vote last cycle, but during the nominating process for the successor to Tom Marino in the 12th Congressional District, Wheeland dropped out after allegations of spousal abuse were brought to light.  Will this hurt him enough to flip the seat in 2020?  Doubtful.  Likely R.

District 84:

Republican:  Garth Everett (I)

Composed of the rural parts of Lycoming County, plus part of Union County, the last contested election here saw incumbent Everett getting nearly 80% of the vote.  Strong R.

District 85:

Republican:  David Rowe (I)

A Central PA partial Snyder and Union County district, District 85 gave new incumbent David Rowe nearly 63% of the vote in a special election two weeks ago, against an opponent with better electoral name recognition.  I don't see this district flipping.  Safe R.

District 86:

Republican:  Mark K. Keller (I)

Heavily Republican district including all of Perry County and a portion of Cumberland County.  Strong R.

District 87:

Republican:  Greg Rothman (I)

Right across the river from the city of Harrisburg, District 87 is a Cumberland County district that leans a bit farther right than you might expect from suburbs, but there is a significant difference between West Shore and East Shore Harrisburg communities.  Incumbent Rothman has managed to explain his way through multiple assault and conspiracy charges from his past, and if I were his challenger, I'd hammer those home.  However, while not likely to be a blowout, incumbent Rothman is still a clear favorite to win right now.  Lean R.

District 88:

Republican:  Sheryl Delozier (I)

You don't have to travel far to move on to District 88; also a West Shore Harrisburg district, this district has the same general electoral demographics as District 87, but is just a few points farther right.  Likely R.

District 89:  

Republican:  Rob Kauffman (I)

Very Republican Franklin County district.  Strong R.

District 90:

Republican:  Paul Schemel (I)

Very Republican Franklin County district.  Strong R.

District 91:

Republican:  Dan Moul (I)

A relatively safe Republican district in Adams County, surrounding the iconic town of Gettysburg.  Strong R.

District 92:

Republican:  Dawn Keefer (I)

Very solidly Republican partial Cumberland and York County district, located along the Susquehanna.  Strong R.

District 93:

Republican:  Mike Jones (I)

Another York County district, also heavily Republican.  Strong R.

District 94:

Republican:  Stanley Saylor (I)

We're still in York County!  District 94, like most areas in York County, is solidly Republican.  Strong R.

District 95:

Democrat:  Carol Hill-Evans (I)

Remember how I just said most areas of York County were solidly Republican?  Except the city of York, which is where District 95 draws its hefty Democratic vote margin.  Strong D.

District 96:

Democrat:  Michael Sturla (I)

Same thing applies to this Lancaster County district, which unlike the surrounding rural areas, contains the city of Lancaster.  Strong D.

District 97:

Republican:  Steven Mentzer (I)

A non-Lancaster city Lancaster County district.  Same York/Lancaster County rules apply, though last cycle saw a more tightened vote margin than other area non-city districts.  Likely R.

District 98:

Republican:  David Hickernell (I)

Primarily a Lancaster County district, plus one Dauphin County township, this is another very Republican district.  Strong R.

District 99:

Republican:  David Zimmerman (I)

Still in Lancaster County.  Still not Lancaster city.  Still overwhelmingly Republican.  Strong R.

District 100:

Republican:  Bryan Cutler (I)

Surprise, surprise, it's another Lancaster County district.  The last Democratic challenger lost by 44 points.  Strong R.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on June 14, 2019, 11:05:49 PM
District 101:

Republican:  Francis Ryan (I)

Well, we've moved out of Lancaster County into Lebanon County, but the demographics are pretty much the same(no offense to anyone in Lancaster/Lebanon/York County, but ya'll pretty homogeneous).  Strong R.

District 102:

Republican:  Russell Diamond (I)

Heavily Republican Lebanon County district.  Surprised yet?  Strong R.

District 103:

Democrat:  Patty Kim (I)

This Dauphin County district includes the city of Harrisburg and some of its closest suburbs.  Before last cycle, the seat hadn't been contested by Republicans since at least 2010, for good reason.  2018's GOP candidate was blown out by 68%.  Strong D.

District 104:

Republican:  Susan Helm (I)
Democrat:  Jesse Gantt

This partial Dauphin and Lebanon County district has been represented by a Republican for decades.  Current incumbent Susan Helm doesn't usually win by hefty margins, but she does consistently win.  This district will likely be a lot more competitive when it's open.  Lean R.

District 105:

Republican:  Andrew Lewis (I)

Another Dauphin County district, District 105 was EXTREMELY competitive last cycle as an open seat.  It is a Republican-leaning district, but if new incumbent Lewis draws another tough challenger, this could be close again.  Tilt R.

District 106:

Republican:  Thomas Mehaffie (I)

My old Dauphin County district back when I was in college, District 106 is another Republican-leaning district; despite covering suburban areas, which in PA are usually swing areas, this district's suburbs are more classically “American Dream” type suburbs, with lower white-collar type, two kids, one dog, family goes to church every Sunday, white picket fence with a pool in the backyard, Republican-voting families.  Lean R.

District 107:

Republican:  Kurt Masser (I)

Partial Columbia and Northumberland County, plus Montour County, district.  Solidly Republican.  Strong R.

District 108:

Republican:  Lynda Schlegel Culver (I)

Very Republican partial Northumberland and Snyder County district.  Strong R.

District 109:

Republican:  David Millard (I)

Very Republican Columbia County district.  Strong R.

District 110:

Republican:  Tina Pickett (I)

NEPA district covering the western part of Susquehanna County, part of Bradford County, and all of Sullivan County, this district borders my home district.  Before 2018, Tina Pickett hadn't been challenged for her seat in a decade, and for good reason.  This district is overwhelmingly Republican.  Strong R.

District 111:

Republican:  Jonathan Fritz (I)

My home district, covering most of Susquehanna and Wayne counties; District 111 is very Republican.  Although there are a few precinct enclaves where Democrats can almost manage 50% of the vote, I don't expect to have a Democrat representing me this upcoming term.  Strong R.

District 112:

Democrat:  Kyle Mullins (I)

This Lackwanna County district, formerly held by dueling Democratic representatives Kevin Haggerty and Frank Farina, leans heavily Democratic.  Though 2016 saw Republican challenger Ernest Lemoncelli draw within 6 points, he lost by over 30 last election.  Likely D.

District 113:

Democrat:  Martin Flynn (I)

Very Democratic Scranton-based Lackawanna County district.  Strong D.

District 114:

Democrat:  Bridget Kosierowski (I)

North-end Lackawanna County district formerly represented by well-known(locally) Sid Michaels Kavulich.  While this district has the potential to be somewhat competitive, new incumbent Kosierowski had a strong showing in the special election to replace Kavulich.  Lean D.

District 115:

Democrat:  Maureen Madden (I)

A slightly Democratic-leaning Monroe County district that includes the artsy town of Stroudsburg, this district has been the scene of bitter partisan and personal struggle the past three election cycles.  After David Parker became the first Republican representative the district had since 1969, beating Maureen Madden by 5 points in 2014, Madden turned around and took the seat from him in 2016, beating him by 4 points.  Parker tried to get the seat back in 2018, but Madden pulled north of 60% of the vote to hold him off.  Lean D.

District 116:

Republican:  Tarah Toohill (I)

Relatively Republican Luzerne County district.  Strong R.

District 117:

Republican:  Karen Boback (I)

Covering parts of Lackawanna and Luzerne County, plus all of Wyoming County, Boback represents a very strongly Republican district.  Strong R.

District 118:

Democrat:  Mike Carroll (I)

Relatively Democratic district covering parts of Lackawanna and Luzerne counties.  Strong D.

District 119:

Democrat:  Gerald Mullery (I)

Luzerne County district that that votes majority Democrat, but tightened last cycle to about a 6 point win for incumbent Mullery.  Your district trending away from you in a wave year for your party is not a great sign.  Tilt D.

District 120:

Republican:  Aaron Kaufer (I)

Slightly Republican-leaning Luzerne County district.  This was a serious recruiting miss for Democrats in 2018 when they failed to contest this district; the seat was held by Democrats as recently as 2014, and should be competitive with a decent recruit.  Lean R.

District 121:

Democrat:  Eddie Day Pashinski (I)

This Luzerne County district, which includes the city of Wilkes-Barre, is a Democratic-leaning district, but could be flipped under the right circumstances.  It depends on what kind of opponent Pashinski draws.  Likely D.

District 122:

Republican:  Doyle Heffley (I)

Covering most of Carbon County, this District leans Republican, but the GOP usually doesn't reach 60% of the vote here.  The exception to that was last cycle, though, when Heffley's vote percentage increased substantially.  This district is trending away from competitiveness.  Likely R.

District 123:

Democrat:  Neal Goodman (I)(Retiring at end of term)

Partial Schuylkill County district that's been uncontested for a surprisingly long time, given that Schuylkill County isn't exactly a liberal bastion.  That should change in 2020, barring a complete GOP recruiting failure, as longtime Democratic incumbent Goodamn has announced his retirement.  Likely R.

Incumbent retiring: https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/democratic-rep-neal-goodman-is-the-latest-legislative-retirement/ (https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/democratic-rep-neal-goodman-is-the-latest-legislative-retirement/)

District 124:

Republican:  Jerry Knowles (I)

Relatively Republican partial Berks, Carbon, and Schuylkill County district.  Strong R.

District 125:

Republican:  Mike Tobash (I)

Very Republican Dauphin/Schuylkill County district.  Strong R.

District 126:

Democrat:  Mark Rozzi (I)

Heavily Democratic Berks County district, including parts of the city of Reading.  Strong D.

District 127:

Democrat:  Thomas Caltagirone (I)

Incumbent Caltagirone has represented this Reading-based Berks County district since 1977.  Given the partisan makeup of the district, that's not likely to change anytime soon.  Strong D.

District 128:

Republican:  Mark Gillen (I)

A partial Berks and Lancaster County, non-city district, this district is only a little less reliably Republican than you'd expect given Central PA rural demographics. Likely R.

District 129:

Republican:  Jim Cox (I)

Another partial Berks and Lancaster County district, this one has more of a Democratic margin than District 128, and the Democratic challenger in 2018 put up an impressive performance.  Lean R.

District 130:

Republican:  David Maloney (I)

A heavily Republican partial Berks County district.  Strong R.

District 131:

Republican:  Justin Simmons (I)(Retiring at end of term)
Democrat:  Kevin Branco

A Southeastern PA Lehigh, Montgomery, and Northampton County district.  The 2014 and 2016 elections here were not very competitive, but the 2018 race pulled Simmons down to a 6-point win, and past elections like 2012 saw Simmons barely squeaking over 50%.  With SEPA drifting left and Simmons retiring, this seat will be a competitive one in 2020.  Tossup.

Retirement:  https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-house-openings-2020-election-20191220-u3gpfv7llvgbfa2uutqep3qxca-story.html (https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-house-openings-2020-election-20191220-u3gpfv7llvgbfa2uutqep3qxca-story.html)

District 132:

Democrat:  Michael Schlossberg (I)

This minority-majority partial Lehigh County district includes a good chunk of the city of Allentown, and is heavily Democratic.  Strong D.

District 133:

Democrat:  Jeanne McNeill (I)

Relatively Democratic partial Lehigh County district that includes portions of the city of Bethlehem.  Likely D.

District 134:

Republican:  Ryan Mackenzie (I)

A partial Berks and Lehigh County district that has been almost competitive in some past elections, especially in 2018.  However, overall this district has a significant Republican advantage.  Likely R.

District 135:

Democrat:  Steve Samuelson (I)

Heavily Democratic partial Northampton County district that includes parts of Bethlehem city.  Strong D.

District 136:

Democrat:  Robert Freeman (I)

Relatively Democratic partial Northampton County district that includes the county seat city of Easton.  Strong D.

District 137:

Republican:  Joe Emrick (I)

Another partial Northampton County district, this one was represented by a Democrat up until 2010, but since then has elected a Republican representative by pretty comfortable margins.  This is almost a Likely R seat, but the Dem challenger turned in a good performance last cycle, so I'm going to rate it as a little bit more vulnerable for now.  Lean R.

District 138:

Republican:  Marcia Hahn (I)(Retiring at end of term)

Also a partial Northampton County district, this one is similar to the prior district, and is in much the same situation, but a few more points to the right.  Likely R.

Retirement:  https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-house-openings-2020-election-20191220-u3gpfv7llvgbfa2uutqep3qxca-story.html (https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-house-openings-2020-election-20191220-u3gpfv7llvgbfa2uutqep3qxca-story.html)

District 139:

Republican:  Michael Peifer (I)

A partial Wayne and Pike County district that is relatively Republican.  Strong R.

District 140:

Democrat:  John Galloway (I)

Heavily Democratic partial Bucks County district.  Strong D.

District 141:

Democrat:  Tina Davis (I)

This Bucks County district has gradually trended Democratic over the last five elections, with the exception of last cycle, when Davis' husband was charged with housing fraud.  She still won, though, and a generic Dem might do even better.  Likely D.

District 142:

Republican:  Frank Farry (I)

A more northern Bucks County district, this district has had only had one term of Democratic control since 1969.  The Republican lean of this district should keep it in in Farry's hands, despite his margins shrinking last year as the Greater Philly suburbs drifted towards the Dems.  Lean R.

District 143:

Democrat:  Wendy Ullman (I)

Another northern Bucks County district, this seat was very competitive last cycle, when current incumbent Ullman won the open seat with 50.8% of the vote.  This one will be a nailbiter in 2020.  Tossup.

District 144:

Republican:  F. Todd Polinchock (I)

It's another Bucks County district!  This one was also a close open seat in 2018, but went GOP by a tiny margin.  Also going to be one to watch in 2020.  Tossup.

District 145:

Republican:  Craig Staats (I)

Guess which county we're in?  You guessed right, this is another Bucks County district.  This one features an incumbent who held on in 2018, and his vote share was robust enough that there's a good chance he'll hang on in 2020 as well.  Lean R.

District 146:

Democrat:  Joseph Ciresi (I)

This Montgomery County district has a messy electoral history.  It's switched party control multiple times the past few elections, including in 2018, when current incumbent Ciresi knocked out the incumbent with an impressive 10-point win.  He has to be favored in 2020, but he also needs to watch his back.  Lean D.

District 147:

Republican:  Marcy Toepel (I)(Retiring at end of term)

Another Montgomery County district, this one is significantly more Republican than most.  GOP vote margins here usually sit around the 2 to 1 range, and although last cycle showed improvement for Dems, it's not likely enough to flip the district in 2020, though Toepel's vacation of the seat should make it more competitive.  Lean R.

Retirement:  https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/high-ranking-house-republican-toepel-announces-2020-retirement/ (https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/high-ranking-house-republican-toepel-announces-2020-retirement/)

District 148:

Democrat:  Mary Jo Daley (I)

Relatively Democratic Montgomery County district.  Likely D.

District 149:

Democrat:  Tim Briggs (I)

Very Democratic Montgomery County district.  Strong D.

District 150:

Democrat:  Joseph Webster (I)

Another Montgomery County district, this one one flipped to Webster with a 12-point victory in 2018, albeit in an open race with no incumbent.  Webster's impressive performance still makes him the favorite in 2020.  Lean D.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on June 14, 2019, 11:06:03 PM
District 151:

Republican:  Todd Stephens (I)

Montgomery County district.  This is a competitive district where incumbent Stephens barely crested 51% last cycle.  Tossup.

District 152:

Republican:  Thomas Murt (I)

This partial Montgomery County district also includes a little chunk of Philadelphia, and has not been represented by a Democrat in 50 years.  Last cycle, I thought this might flip, but Murt managed to pull off a 10-point win.  I might end up moving this to Likely R depending on what news comes out of the district.  Lean R.

District 153:

Democrat:  Ben Sanchez (I)

Another Montgomery County district, that is heavily Democratic territory.  Strong D.

District 154:

Democrat:  Steve McCarter (I)(Retiring at end of term)

We're still in Montgomery County, and this district is a 4-1 Democratic district.  For some reason, Republicans kept challenging incumbent McCarter, and he kept crushing them.  Not likely to change this year, even with McCarter retiring.  Strong D.

Incumbent retiring: https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/montco-dem-mccarter-announces-2020-retirement/ (https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/montco-dem-mccarter-announces-2020-retirement/)

District 155:

Democrat:  Danielle Otten (I)

Moving to Chester County, this district is one that flipped last year, as Otten ousted a Republican incumbent in a 9-point victory.  I think she'll be able to hold this swing district in 2020, if not by much.  Tilt D.

District 156:

Democrat:  Carolyn Comitta (I)

Also part of Chester County, this district saw a massive swing towards the Dems last cycle; after Comitta took the seat from its former Republican incumbent in 2016 by 25 votes, she held it in 2018 with a 13-point victory.  Lean D.

District 157:

Democrat:  Melissa Shusterman (I)

Partial Chester and Montgomery County district, where current incumbent Shusterman swung the district from a 12 point GOP win in 2016 to an impressive victory for her in 2018, knocking off the former Republican incumbent by over 13 points.  Lean D.

District 158:

Democrat:  Christina Sappey (I)

Another Chester County district, and this one also featured a Democratic woman knocking out the GOP incumbent.  Her margin of victory was around half of the two previous districts listed, so while I still expect her to hold the district, I'm predicting this one conservatively for now.  Tilt D.

District 159:

Democrat:  Brian Kirkland (I)

This Delaware County district is heavily Democratic, about 3-1.  Strong D.

District 160:

Republican:  Stephen Barrar (I)(Retiring at end of term)

District 160 is split between Chester and Delaware counties, and current incumbent Barrar barely squeaked by last cycle with a less than 3-point win.  With the Philly burbs still looking hostile to the GOP, this is likely to be tight again in 2020, and Barrar will be out of the picture as an incumbent.  Tossup.

Incumbent retiring: https://www.penncapital-star.com/government-politics/veteran-delco-lawmaker-barrar-to-retire-at-the-end-of-his-term/ (https://www.penncapital-star.com/government-politics/veteran-delco-lawmaker-barrar-to-retire-at-the-end-of-his-term/)

District 161:

Democrat:  Leanne Krueger-Braneky (I)

A Delaware County district, this is a very competitive area.  Out of the past five elections, only one candidate was able to win more than 56% of the vote, and that was in 2018, when the Dem incumbent hit nearly 60%, an 8-point improvement from her 2016 win.  This could be a flip district if the night goes very badly for Dems, but should probably be a hold in a neutral or Dem-friendly environment.  Lean D.

District 162:

Democrat:  David Delloso (I)

This riverside Delaware County district is significantly more Republican than most Delaware County districts, and when former incumbent Nick Miccarelli retired, leaving the seat open in the 2018 elections, I expected the partisan lean of the district to keep it in GOP hands.  However, Delloso managed to take the win with 51.6% of the vote; it remains to be seen if he can hang onto the seat if the environment is any less favorable than 2018.  Definitely a race to watch.  Tossup.

District 163:

Democrat:  Michael Zabel (I)

Another competitive Delaware County district, this was also another casualty in the GOP suburban Philly wipeout last cycle.  Still gonna be close, but advantage Zabel, who knocked out the former incumbent by about 7 points in 2018.  Tilt D.

District 164:

Democrat:  Margo Davidson (I)

This heavily black Delaware County district has voted about 80% for Davidson in recent elections.  Strong D.

District 165:

Democrat:  Jennifer Omara (I)

Still in Delaware County, and this district was extremely close last election.  The former Republican incumbent won re-election in 2016 by 12 points, but current incumbent Omara barely toppled him with 50.8% of the vote in 2018.  If he runs against her this upcoming cycle, or if PA suburbs start polling differently, this could easily be a Tilt/Lean R seat, but for now...  Tossup.

District 166:

Democrat:  Gregory Vitali (I)

Split between Delaware County and Montgomery County, District 166's incumbent Vitali has represented the district since the year of my birth, and has been increasing his win margins in recent elections.  I wouldn't rate him as vulnerable.  Strong D.

District 167:

Democrat:  Kristine Howard (I)

We're hopping back over to Chester County for this district, which has leaned Republican in recent elections, but was flipped by 4 points in 2018.  Could go either way depending on the suburban environment in November 2020.  Tossup.

District 168:

Republican:  Christopher Quinn (I)

Heading back into Delaware County, this district is yet another competitive one.  Current incumbent Quinn won the seat in 2016 with 56% of the vote, but shrunk to barely over 50% last cycle.  He still held on, though, and I'll give him the advantage until we know more about the 2020 environment.  Tilt R.

District 169:

Republican:  Kate Anne Klunk (I)

It's a York County district that doesn't include the city of York, so it's heavily Republican.  Strong R.

District 170:

Republican:  Martina White (I)

This Philadelphia district has to be a top target for state Dems, as it was represented until 2015 by Democrat Brendan Boyle.  Current incumbent Martina White won the special election to replace him, and managed to hold her seat in 2016 with less than 54% of the vote.  Somehow, she increased her share of the vote in 2018, but she has a far more conservative voting record than you would expect for the district, and won in part due to a massive fundraising disparity.  I'm switching her from being barely disfavored last cycle in my predictions to being barely favored in this cycle, but I really do expect Dems to go after her harder in 2020.  Tilt R.

District 171:

Republican:  Kerry Benninghoff (I)

This district spans parts of Centre County and Mifflin County, and is pretty Republican.  Though 2018's challenger McCracken swung the district 10 points left, incumbent Benninghoff is still the heavy favorite here.  Likely R.

District 172:

Democrat:  Kevin Boyle (I)

Heavily Democratic Philadelphia district that also includes a tiny bit of Montgomery County.  Strong D.

District 173:

Democrat:  Michael Driscoll (I)

Heavily Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 174:

Democrat:  Edward Neilson (I)

Heavily Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 175:

Democrat:  Mary Isaacson (I)

Heavily Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 176:

Republican:  Jack Rader Jr (I)

This 30%+ minority Monroe County district leans more Republican than you might expect.  Despite some historically close elections in this district, it doesn't look to be super competitive this cycle; incumbent Rader still managed a 10-point win in 2018 despite the favorable environment for Dems.  Lean R.

District 177:

Democrat:  Joseph Hohenstein (I)

Back to Philadelphia; this district had a Republican incumbent from 1985 until 2018, when Hohenstein knocked him out with a 60% win.  Lean D.

District 178:

Republican:  Wendi Thomas (I)

In this Bucks County district, first-term incumbent incumbent Wendy Thomas initially lost this seat to Democrat Helen Tai in a special election earlier in 2018.  She then came back and won it in the general election, but only with 50.8% of the vote.  Who knows how this one's going to settle out.  Tossup.

District 179:

Democrat:  Jason Dawkins (I)

Heavily Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 180:

Democrat:  Angel Cruz (I)

Heavily Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 181:

Democrat:  Malcolm Kenyatta (I)

To give you an idea of how Democratic this Philadelphia district is, Kenyatta won over 95% of the vote in 2018.  Strong D.

District 182:

Democrat:  Brian Sims (I)

This Philadelphia district is represented by Daryl Metcalfe target, queer PA icon, and recently “scandal”-plagued(he called an old white lady protesting an abortion clinic an “old white lady”), Brian Sims.  This is a center-city Philly district, so barring a primary challenge, Sims will hold the seat.  Strong D.

District 183:

Republican:  Zachary Mako (I)

For District 183, we're headed back up to Lehigh County and Northampton County, and to an incumbent with a cool shark last name.  Mako won the seat in 2016 with 58% of the vote, and slipped a few points last cycle, but is still the favorite for 2020, and it would take a significant effort to oust him.  Lean R.

District 184:

Democrat:  Elizabeth Fiedler (I)

Heavily Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 185:

Democrat:  Maria Donatucci (I)

Heavily Democratic Delaware County and Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 186:

Democrat:  Jordan Harris (I)

Heavily Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 187:

Republican:  Gary Day (I)

This Berks and Lehigh County district has a pretty strong Republican lean.  Likely R.

District 188:

Democrat:  James Roebuck Jr (I)

Heavily Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 189:

Republican:  Rosemary Brown (I)

In this Monroe and Pike County district, incumbent Rosemary Brown generally wins by comfortable margins of at least 10 points.  Last cycle was a tougher year for her than usual, though she still starts off as the very clear favorite, because it wasn't a particularly close win.  Likely R.

District 190:

(Special election February 25th)

Democrat:  Wanda Logan
Republican:  G. Roni Green

Extremely Democratic open Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 191:

Democrat:  Joanna McClinton (I)

Extremely Democratic Delaware County/Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 192:

Democrat:  Morgan Cephas (I)

Extremely Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 193:

Republican:  Torren Ecker (I)

Heavily Republican Adams and Cumberland County district.  Republicans regularly win about 70% of the vote.  Strong R.

District 194:

Democrat:  Pamela DeLissio (I)

Montgomery County/Philadelphia district with a hefty Democratic voting advantage.  Strong D.

District 195:

Democrat:  Donna Bullock (I)

Very Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 196:

Republican:  Seth Grove (I)

Very Republican York County district.  Strong R.

District 197:

Democrat:  Danilo Burgos (I)

Very Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 198:

Democrat:  Rosita Youngblood (I)

Very Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 199:

Republican:  Barbara Gleim (I)

Cumberland County district that is heavily Republican.  Could be somewhat competitive given a perfect storm of Dem-favorable circumstances, but that's not likely to happen.  Likely R.

District 200:

Democrat:  Christopher Rabb (I)

Very Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 201:

Democrat:  Stephen Kinsey (I)

Very Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 202:

Democrat:  Jared Solomon (I)

Very Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.

District 203:

Democrat:  Isabella Fitzgerald (I)

Very Democratic Philadelphia district.  Strong D.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on June 14, 2019, 11:06:26 PM
(Reserved for post-election results)


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner on June 14, 2019, 11:37:27 PM
Leach is gonna get primaried.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on June 14, 2019, 11:58:30 PM

And he's gonna publicly complain about it the entire time and sink his chances even further.   >_<


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on June 18, 2019, 02:06:51 AM
Done with preliminary predictions.  Can't wait to see how the primaries settle out.    :3


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Epaminondas on June 18, 2019, 06:32:44 AM
Wonderful work!

As you say, how counter-intuitive that the House seems like a longer reacher than the Senate, when there are so many more pickings.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on July 10, 2019, 06:59:19 PM
Wonderful work!

As you say, how counter-intuitive that the House seems like a longer reacher than the Senate, when there are so many more pickings.

Thank you!  Hopefully you'll come around once in a while to check out the updates.    :d


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on July 10, 2019, 08:54:42 PM
First update of the cycle:


House District 85 Special Election:

Both parties have decided on their candidates for the PA House 85th District special election on August 20th.  Republicans have picked a local Union County businessman, David Rowe, while Democrats have again picked their 2018 candidate for this seat, local doctor Jennifer Rager-Kay.  Rager-Kay lost to former incumbent Fred Keller by 35 points in 2018, so despite the seat being open now, I don't expect her to win this time.  For optimal electability, I was hoping the Dems would nominate a young, business owning, white male moderate, but they went with a previous losing candidate, and the district doesn't have enough of a Democratic base or swarm of moderate independents for Dems to win without convincing some Republicans to defect or stay home.  Generic R, which Rowe seems to be thus far, should carry this race, barring a scandal where he's caught eating a fetus or something.

Likely R ---> Strong R

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2019/06/candidates-set-for-special-election-to-fill-state-house-seat-vacated-by-us-rep-fred-keller.html (https://www.pennlive.com/news/2019/06/candidates-set-for-special-election-to-fill-state-house-seat-vacated-by-us-rep-fred-keller.html)


Senate District 17:

Also, in the Philly suburbs, embattled Democratic State Senator Daylin Leach has drawn a primary challenge from Sara Atkins, a local activist.  So far, this doesn't look like the most credible challenge, but given the allegations against Senator Leach, I expect more primary opponents to throw their hats in the ring.  A particularly ugly primary could spell a closer general election margin, but this is still a pretty democratic seat.  Not changing this district's ratings yet.

Likely D ---> Likely D

http://www.politicspa.com/leach-draws-first-primary-challenger-in-sara-atkins/91401/ (http://www.politicspa.com/leach-draws-first-primary-challenger-in-sara-atkins/91401/)


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort on July 10, 2019, 09:48:57 PM
Thank you for tracking this. PALeg is one of the most interesting state legislative election cycles in 2020.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on July 11, 2019, 06:59:42 PM
Thank you for tracking this. PALeg is one of the most interesting state legislative election cycles in 2020.

You're welcome!  I'm excited to be tracking this cycle; Dems haven't controlled either legislative chamber in a decade, and there hasn't been a Democratic trifecta in the state since 1994.  Right now, the GCB looks really good for Dems, so we'll have to see what happens next November.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Yellowhammer on July 11, 2019, 08:06:23 PM
Martina White’s seat is likely R.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on July 11, 2019, 08:13:43 PM

Aren't you the user who said banning conversion therapy "deprives queer people of necessary treatment to release them from suffering" or something along those lines?  I don't need you in my thread, thank you.

()


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Pericles on July 12, 2019, 09:40:17 PM
Pennsylvania seems quite gerrymandered, Democrats won the popular vote for the state House by 11 points in 2018 and still clearly lost the majority (rather than say a Virginia HoD situation where they come really close), Pennsylvania also being a swing state in 2020 could be bad for state Democrats here, the state House and presidential margins were relatively close in 2016. I'm not a very informed person on Pennsylvania politics but the current map seems very difficult for Democrats to win with, though it probably is possible. Is this right or am I missing something, and so how would this factor into an analysis of Pennsylvania's state legislature?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Nyvin on July 12, 2019, 09:55:24 PM
Pennsylvania seems quite gerrymandered, Democrats won the popular vote for the state House by 11 points in 2018 and still clearly lost the majority (rather than say a Virginia HoD situation where they come really close), Pennsylvania also being a swing state in 2020 could be bad for state Democrats here, the state House and presidential margins were relatively close in 2016. I'm not a very informed person on Pennsylvania politics but the current map seems very difficult for Democrats to win with, though it probably is possible. Is this right or am I missing something, and so how would this factor into an analysis of Pennsylvania's state legislature?

Yeah, pretty much.   Trump only won SD-15 less than 5%,  if the district just took in Camp Hill/Mechanicsburg it would almost certainly be a real swing seat, instead it takes in blood red Perry county and makes it a lean R seat.  Also doesn't help that SD-48 takes in a chunk of Harrisburg.

Thankfully with Wolf's Veto, the State Supreme Court being overwhelmingly left wing, and the Demographics of the state favoring dems heavily...this will probably be the last election where Republicans get carried by a favorable map.  

Also SD-9 was won by Clinton by like 13 points and the GOP senator just barely scraped by in 2016...that district should be like Likely/Lean D, not tilt.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Duke of York on July 12, 2019, 11:38:24 PM
Under a fair map democrats would likely be favored to gain one or both chambers. The gerrymandering will become much less severe come 2022 due to Wolf winning reelection


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on July 13, 2019, 12:28:34 AM
Pennsylvania seems quite gerrymandered, Democrats won the popular vote for the state House by 11 points in 2018 and still clearly lost the majority (rather than say a Virginia HoD situation where they come really close), Pennsylvania also being a swing state in 2020 could be bad for state Democrats here, the state House and presidential margins were relatively close in 2016. I'm not a very informed person on Pennsylvania politics but the current map seems very difficult for Democrats to win with, though it probably is possible. Is this right or am I missing something, and so how would this factor into an analysis of Pennsylvania's state legislature?

Yeah, there are definitely some egregious gerrymanders in both the House and Senate maps.  I'm hoping that redistricting in 2021, which is done by a 2Dem/2Pub/1Neutral(ideally) commission, will resolve some of the mess.  However, there are some hurdles to clear:

A, four of the redistricting commission members are legislative leadership, so there is a lot of incentive to protect their own districts+the districts of their friends+generally just the districts of incumbents in their caucuses, unless they don't like somebody, who they could try to screw over.  So districts can end up being really weird to protect incumbents.

B, Pennsylvania's minorities are very concentrated in our cities, so while it's relatively easy to draw minority-majority districts, these reliably Democratic voters also generally get packed into extremely Democratic districts.

C, our smaller cities(basically any city other than Philly or Pittsburgh) don't always have the kind of large, well-educated, suburban housewife neighborhoods that allow more Democratic-leaning seats to be drawn in other states.

It's definitely possible to draw an equal map, or even a slightly Dem-favorable map, so we'll have to see how redistricting settles out in 2021.  In terms of the current map, it's possible for Dems to take both chambers, but it'll take a wipeout of GOP seats in the Philly/Pitt burbs, plus the two Senate seats in Hburg and Erie.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS on July 13, 2019, 12:56:06 AM
Under a fair map democrats would likely be favored to gain one or both chambers. The gerrymandering will become much less severe come 2022 due to Wolf winning reelection

Democrats technically have control over Legislative Redistricting in Pennsylvania for the 2020s decade, since when divided government in Pennsylvania makes it impossible to pass any state legislative map though legislative means; it goes to the state Supreme Court which is now controlled by Democrats.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on July 13, 2019, 01:21:36 AM
Yeah, pretty much.   Trump only won SD-15 less than 5%,  if the district just took in Camp Hill/Mechanicsburg it would almost certainly be a real swing seat, instead it takes in blood red Perry county and makes it a lean R seat.  Also doesn't help that SD-48 takes in a chunk of Harrisburg.

Also SD-9 was won by Clinton by like 13 points and the GOP senator just barely scraped by in 2016...that district should be like Likely/Lean D, not tilt.

Dude, SD 15 is a real swing seat.  It's definitely not a Lean R seat; you could MAYBE make the argument for Tilt R, but I'd say Tossup.  Perry County is very red, yes, but it has a miniscule number of voters compared to Dauphin, which went 3 points blue even in the horrible Dem year of 2016.

And no need to get shady about my ultra-conservative, over a year before the election predictions, ma'am.  It's likely that I will be moving SD 9 to Lean D by the time we closer to the election, but I'm not one to count chickens 16 months before they hatch, are you?

(Thanks for giving my thread a post, though.  :d )


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Mr.Phips on July 13, 2019, 07:15:12 AM
How did a Dem incumbent lose the Erie state senate seat when Hillary carried it?  Did the Dem incumbent get indicted or something?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on July 13, 2019, 12:50:08 PM
How did a Dem incumbent lose the Erie state senate seat when Hillary carried it?  Did the Dem incumbent get indicted or something?

Honestly, it was one of the surprises of Election Night, but the Republican challenger did his utmost to tie the Dem incumbent to his vote in favor of keeping disgraced Attorney General Kathleen Kane in office.  Add to that the fact that this seat was a top GOP target, and the fact that Hillary’s win in this district was far from overwhelming, and you end up with the flip.  Was definitely a surprise, though.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: smoltchanov on July 13, 2019, 12:53:58 PM
How did a Dem incumbent lose the Erie state senate seat when Hillary carried it?  Did the Dem incumbent get indicted or something?

Honestly, it was one of the surprises of Election Night, but the Republican challenger did his utmost to tie the Dem incumbent to his vote in favor of keeping disgraced Attorney General Kathleen Kane in office.  Add to that the fact that this seat was a top GOP target, and the fact that Hillary’s win in this district was far from overwhelming, and you end up with the flip.  Was definitely a surprise, though.

IIRC - Republican was relatively moderate on social issues too...


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on July 13, 2019, 07:16:12 PM
IIRC - Republican was relatively moderate on social issues too...

Yeah, he’s very... meh... on social issues.  100% rating from Planned Parenthood, 50% rating from some major LGBTQ+ groups, and sub-20% ratings from environmental groups.  Definitely a mixed bag, but more moderate than Generic R, which is going to make unseating him that much harder.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Yellowhammer on July 14, 2019, 05:15:18 PM

Aren't you the user who said banning conversion therapy "deprives queer people of necessary treatment to release them from suffering" or something along those lines?  I don't need you in my thread, thank you.

()

Yes that’s me, and no, I won’t leave :)


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: lfromnj on July 15, 2019, 11:56:13 AM
Interestingly there's also a rock island state senate seat that Hillary carried but the Dem lost.

Reminder these areas aren't really ancestrally Democrat just Working class.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Politician on July 15, 2019, 03:10:45 PM
Interestingly there's also a rock island state senate seat that Hillary carried but the Dem lost.

Reminder these areas aren't really ancestrally Democrat just Working class.
Rock Island is ancestrally Dem; Whiteside and Carroll are ancestrally R (the latter never voted D for president until Obama won it in 2008).

It's also worth noting the GOP picked up that seat by double digits in 2014 and held it by <2 points in 2018.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Peanut on July 15, 2019, 07:27:25 PM
Thank you for the district-by-district analysis, it looks great! Definitely looking forward to the State Leg races in PA next year. They'll be very interesting.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on July 15, 2019, 07:30:53 PM
Thank you for the district-by-district analysis, it looks great! Definitely looking forward to the State Leg races in PA next year. They'll be very interesting.

You're welcome!  Hope ya stop by throughout the cycle next year for updates.   :d


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on July 20, 2019, 10:01:24 PM
Updates:

State Senate District 9:

Republican State Senator Thomas Killion, who is in serious danger of losing his suburban Philly district, has a challenger in local health care executive Brett Burman, who is running on a platform of ending corruption in the state legislature, expanding school district funding for underfunded schools, and reforming the state health care support system, especially in the area of mental health.  If elected, Burman would also be the first openly gay PA State Senator.

https://www.delcotimes.com/news/democratic-challenger-emerges-in-th-state-senate-district/article_4d01eac2-93a3-11e9-942f-17bf2a9d4e80.html (https://www.delcotimes.com/news/democratic-challenger-emerges-in-th-state-senate-district/article_4d01eac2-93a3-11e9-942f-17bf2a9d4e80.html)

Burman has the potential to develop into a strong candidate by next year, but it's going to take some time and strong performance in local media, as he doesn't have a particularly visible public profile.  Not changing this district rating based on his entrance into the race.

Tilt D --> Tilt D

State Senate District 17:

Embattled Democratic State Senator Daylin Leach has drawn another primary challenger, Norristown Area School Board President Shae Ashe.  Ashe joins community activist Sara Atkins in challenging incumbent Leach, who is struggling to retain his seat amidst calls to resign from many major party leaders over sexual misconduct allegations.  Ashe has credentials as a community organizer, local government official, and has worked in constituent services for US Representative Madeleine Dean, of PA's 4th Congressional District.

https://www.timesherald.com/news/local/shae-ashe-to-take-on-daylin-leach-for-th-district/article_6f287dbe-a311-11e9-b838-cfb74b23866a.html (https://www.timesherald.com/news/local/shae-ashe-to-take-on-daylin-leach-for-th-district/article_6f287dbe-a311-11e9-b838-cfb74b23866a.html)

If the Dem primary field keeps expanding as fast as it is, it could create a messy primary and potentially weaken the party's general election prospects, but three candidates isn't an unusual amount for a primary, so this rating isn't changing, either.

Likely D --> Likely D

State Senate District 39:

Democrat and former nonprofit CEO Tay Waltenbaugh is challenging 3-term Republican incumbent Kim Ward, hoping to run on his years of community revitalization work in this economically struggling Southwest PA district.  

https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/supporters-gather-around-as-tay-waltenbaugh-announces-state-senate-run-in-jeannette/ (https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/supporters-gather-around-as-tay-waltenbaugh-announces-state-senate-run-in-jeannette/)

Waltenbaugh looks like the kind of Democrat who could make some waves in this type of district, but I'm not moving the rating just yet.  This area has been trending to the right for years, and it would take a hell of a candidate to flip it.

Likely R --> Likely R


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Gustaf on July 23, 2019, 03:59:02 AM

Aren't you the user who said banning conversion therapy "deprives queer people of necessary treatment to release them from suffering" or something along those lines?  I don't need you in my thread, thank you.

()

Yes that’s me, and no, I won’t leave :)

S**t stains are notoriously hard to clean out.

----------------------------

Interesting analyis, ctherainbow! Did you by any chance catch the 538 podcast on PA? It wasn't super in depth but still had some interesting bits on the state.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on July 23, 2019, 12:09:40 PM
Interesting analyis, ctherainbow! Did you by any chance catch the 538 podcast on PA? It wasn't super in depth but still had some interesting bits on the state.

I did not!  Thanks for letting me know about it; I’ll have to check it out.    :d


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 23, 2019, 12:18:20 PM
I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on July 23, 2019, 03:57:45 PM
I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.

I hope so, too!  Then at least I’ll have a buddy to help me start the second war on Heaven.    3:)

Did you have any thoughts about the PA State Legislative elections in 2020?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Duke of York on July 23, 2019, 03:59:29 PM
I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.
what do you have against him?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 23, 2019, 04:21:26 PM
I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.
what do you have against him?

He betrayed my confidence and my vote, is intolerant beyond parody, and is a very violent and unstable man clearly suffering from head injuries like a certain former football player who posts on this forum that fantasizes about violence. His values are entirely determined by opposition to any form of institution responsible for stability in society just to wickedly own someone from his childhood. He will never get my vote again - just very vicious harassment if I ever see him walking down my block or if we ever decide to organize at his office. He is the single most bigoted politician in America and a narcissistic agent of chaos.

I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.

I hope so, too!  Then at least I’ll have a buddy to help me start the second war on Heaven.    3:)

Did you have any thoughts about the PA State Legislative elections in 2020?

I am so proud to have so many names in there that end in vowels. It brings a tear to my eye, and I hope those incumbents fight the good fight and retain their disproportionate representation in the chamber. I could care less what party is in charge, but split chambers would probably be the best case scenario. My concerns generally lie with the Philadelphia local government rather than Harrisburg, but I appreciate your work.

Go incumbents except for mine! You guys are doing great!


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on July 24, 2019, 07:31:11 PM
State House Update Districts 1-100:

District 8:

District 8's incumbent was charged with a DUI late last year, so he may get primaried by an opportunist.  We'll have to see if he makes it through the primary or not, so I'm not changing the rating yet, but even if he does, this is a very Republican district.

http://www.wfmj.com/story/40300504/pennsylvania-state-rep-nesbit-to-enter-rehab-program-avoids-trial (http://www.wfmj.com/story/40300504/pennsylvania-state-rep-nesbit-to-enter-rehab-program-avoids-trial)

Safe R --> Safe R

District 9:

The GOP is already doing ad buys in this district, which indicates a readiness to go after Sainato's district next year.  Upon closer analysis, the district also appears to be trending R long-term, so I'm nudging this district further along the competitive scale.

Likely D --> Lean D

District 10:

In District 10, Republican incumbent Bernstine has shown significant crossover appeal with Democrats in the district, winning a write-in campaign for the Democratic nomination in 2018.  His Democratic(write-in) opponent from 2018 plans to challenge him again in 2020, so against a likely repeat candidate, and with the addition of his concerted crossover voter outreach, I'm bumping this race into safer territory for Bernstine.

Tilt R --> Lean R

District 18:

Gene DiGirolamo has represented this district for decades, but will be resigning from the seat to pursue a new career as a Bucks County Commissioner if he wins a commissioner seat this November.  This looks likely, as he had the second-highest vote tally of all candidates in the primary this May.  As an open seat, District 18 should be significantly more competitive, in both the special election for the rest of the term, as well as in the 2020 general.

http://election.buckscountyonline.org/ (http://election.buckscountyonline.org/)

Lean R --> Tilt R

District 50:

As with District 9, early ad buys indicate that the PA GOP are planning to target this seat.  Snyder already looked vulnerable, but with confirmation that the State Republicans are planning to push for her seat, I'm scooting this prediction to the right.

Lean D --> Tilt D

District 58:

District 58's incumbent successfully ran to be a Republican nominee for the Court of Common Pleas, and he has a shot at winning in November, but we'll have to see how that election settles out.  Loss of an incumbent could make the district more "competitive", but likely still not flippable.  Not moving this district's rating until November, and until I find out who's replacing Walsh if he does move on.

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/PA/Westmoreland/95683/Web02.226438/#/ (https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/PA/Westmoreland/95683/Web02.226438/#/)

Likely R --> Likely R

District 83:

District 83's incumbent Jeff Wheeland was hit with spousal abuse allegations during the nominating process to take over Tom Marino's 12th Congressional District seat in March, and though he dropped out of that contest, I haven't heard anything about him stepping down from his State House seat.  I still don't think this seat will flip, but it's gone from a chance in hell to maybe 3.7 chances in hell if Wheeland is the party's nominee next November.  Likely R was already a stretch to the left for this district, so I'm not gonna move this rating unless the allegations lead to an arrest, or something else happens to upend the incumbent further.

https://www.dailyitem.com/news/update-gop-delegates-pick-keller-to-run-for-marino-s/article_d80c2638-3d2b-11e9-bebd-bbd30cc7d548.html (https://www.dailyitem.com/news/update-gop-delegates-pick-keller-to-run-for-marino-s/article_d80c2638-3d2b-11e9-bebd-bbd30cc7d548.html)

Likely R --> Likely R


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Duke of York on July 24, 2019, 08:01:38 PM
I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.
what do you have against him?

He betrayed my confidence and my vote, is intolerant beyond parody, and is a very violent and unstable man clearly suffering from head injuries like a certain former football player who posts on this forum that fantasizes about violence. His values are entirely determined by opposition to any form of institution responsible for stability in society just to wickedly own someone from his childhood. He will never get my vote again - just very vicious harassment if I ever see him walking down my block or if we ever decide to organize at his office. He is the single most bigoted politician in America and a narcissistic agent of chaos.

I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.

I hope so, too!  Then at least I’ll have a buddy to help me start the second war on Heaven.    3:)

Did you have any thoughts about the PA State Legislative elections in 2020?

I am so proud to have so many names in there that end in vowels. It brings a tear to my eye, and I hope those incumbents fight the good fight and retain their disproportionate representation in the chamber. I could care less what party is in charge, but split chambers would probably be the best case scenario. My concerns generally lie with the Philadelphia local government rather than Harrisburg, but I appreciate your work.

Go incumbents except for mine! You guys are doing great!
You have any evidence of your inflammatory remarks? Why dont you run against him then?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 24, 2019, 08:49:46 PM
I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.
what do you have against him?

He betrayed my confidence and my vote, is intolerant beyond parody, and is a very violent and unstable man clearly suffering from head injuries like a certain former football player who posts on this forum that fantasizes about violence. His values are entirely determined by opposition to any form of institution responsible for stability in society just to wickedly own someone from his childhood. He will never get my vote again - just very vicious harassment if I ever see him walking down my block or if we ever decide to organize at his office. He is the single most bigoted politician in America and a narcissistic agent of chaos.

I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.

I hope so, too!  Then at least I’ll have a buddy to help me start the second war on Heaven.    3:)

Did you have any thoughts about the PA State Legislative elections in 2020?

I am so proud to have so many names in there that end in vowels. It brings a tear to my eye, and I hope those incumbents fight the good fight and retain their disproportionate representation in the chamber. I could care less what party is in charge, but split chambers would probably be the best case scenario. My concerns generally lie with the Philadelphia local government rather than Harrisburg, but I appreciate your work.

Go incumbents except for mine! You guys are doing great!
You have any evidence of your inflammatory remarks? Why dont you run against him then?

He proudly posted the videos all over his Twitter feed. I don't feel an onus to dig them up when they made national news.

Why would I run for State Assembly when I would have to take a pay decrease and be forced to commute to Harrisburg constantly? I thoroughly enjoy never having to leave Center City Philadelphia except to go to New York or Boston. He is very clearly going to win anyway. The Gayborhood has spoken and they prefer this psycho to people like me and Pete Buttigieg


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Duke of York on July 24, 2019, 11:30:44 PM
I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.
what do you have against him?

He betrayed my confidence and my vote, is intolerant beyond parody, and is a very violent and unstable man clearly suffering from head injuries like a certain former football player who posts on this forum that fantasizes about violence. His values are entirely determined by opposition to any form of institution responsible for stability in society just to wickedly own someone from his childhood. He will never get my vote again - just very vicious harassment if I ever see him walking down my block or if we ever decide to organize at his office. He is the single most bigoted politician in America and a narcissistic agent of chaos.

I hope Brian Sims self-deports to the underworld from which he came and will spend eternity.

I hope so, too!  Then at least I’ll have a buddy to help me start the second war on Heaven.    3:)

Did you have any thoughts about the PA State Legislative elections in 2020?

I am so proud to have so many names in there that end in vowels. It brings a tear to my eye, and I hope those incumbents fight the good fight and retain their disproportionate representation in the chamber. I could care less what party is in charge, but split chambers would probably be the best case scenario. My concerns generally lie with the Philadelphia local government rather than Harrisburg, but I appreciate your work.

Go incumbents except for mine! You guys are doing great!
You have any evidence of your inflammatory remarks? Why dont you run against him then?

He proudly posted the videos all over his Twitter feed. I don't feel an onus to dig them up when they made national news.

Why would I run for State Assembly when I would have to take a pay decrease and be forced to commute to Harrisburg constantly? I thoroughly enjoy never having to leave Center City Philadelphia except to go to New York or Boston. He is very clearly going to win anyway. The Gayborhood has spoken and they prefer this psycho to people like me and Pete Buttigieg
because your one vote won't do anything but running against him would. They said AOC wouldnt win but yet she is in Congress.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 25, 2019, 08:15:11 AM

because your one vote won't do anything but running against him would. They said AOC wouldnt win but yet she is in Congress.

Her alternative is bartender. Again, you are asking me to severely downgrade from a comfortable career and get lots of hate in order to run in a district where I don't represent the median voter and have to go to Harrisburg (a long way from Heaven).

What difference does it make ethically if Sims is state representative or gets kicked out and joins some abortion advocacy group? I just want the satisfaction of him being humiliated, but that doesn't involve dragging myself down into politics.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Duke of York on July 25, 2019, 10:27:29 AM

because your one vote won't do anything but running against him would. They said AOC wouldnt win but yet she is in Congress.

Her alternative is bartender. Again, you are asking me to severely downgrade from a comfortable career and get lots of hate in order to run in a district where I don't represent the median voter and have to go to Harrisburg (a long way from Heaven).

What difference does it make ethically if Sims is state representative or gets kicked out and joins some abortion advocacy group? I just want the satisfaction of him being humiliated, but that doesn't involve dragging myself down into politics.

He isn’t going to lose


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 25, 2019, 10:37:16 AM

because your one vote won't do anything but running against him would. They said AOC wouldnt win but yet she is in Congress.

Her alternative is bartender. Again, you are asking me to severely downgrade from a comfortable career and get lots of hate in order to run in a district where I don't represent the median voter and have to go to Harrisburg (a long way from Heaven).

What difference does it make ethically if Sims is state representative or gets kicked out and joins some abortion advocacy group? I just want the satisfaction of him being humiliated, but that doesn't involve dragging myself down into politics.

He isn’t going to lose

I know....evil men can go far in this profession.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Duke of York on July 25, 2019, 03:34:27 PM

because your one vote won't do anything but running against him would. They said AOC wouldnt win but yet she is in Congress.

Her alternative is bartender. Again, you are asking me to severely downgrade from a comfortable career and get lots of hate in order to run in a district where I don't represent the median voter and have to go to Harrisburg (a long way from Heaven).

What difference does it make ethically if Sims is state representative or gets kicked out and joins some abortion advocacy group? I just want the satisfaction of him being humiliated, but that doesn't involve dragging myself down into politics.

He isn’t going to lose

I know....evil men can go far in this profession.
He is far from evil. You posting what you are on an obscure forum will have zero effect on the outcome in your district next year.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 25, 2019, 04:14:08 PM

because your one vote won't do anything but running against him would. They said AOC wouldnt win but yet she is in Congress.

Her alternative is bartender. Again, you are asking me to severely downgrade from a comfortable career and get lots of hate in order to run in a district where I don't represent the median voter and have to go to Harrisburg (a long way from Heaven).

What difference does it make ethically if Sims is state representative or gets kicked out and joins some abortion advocacy group? I just want the satisfaction of him being humiliated, but that doesn't involve dragging myself down into politics.

He isn’t going to lose

I know....evil men can go far in this profession.
He is far from evil. You posting what you are on an obscure forum will have zero effect on the outcome in your district next year.

Why are you instigating a flame war? I have absolutely no intention of impacting the election in a safe seat, least of all by posting here. No other posters here live in this district. Am I not allowed to state my disapproval of a public figure on the Internet?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on July 25, 2019, 09:22:35 PM
Can you guys either take this to PMs or make a separate Brian Sims thread, please?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Epaminondas on July 26, 2019, 08:28:24 AM
You could care less? So you do care?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 26, 2019, 08:35:23 AM

You're on an obscure American state's local legislative elections thread. Learn American! :)


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on July 27, 2019, 01:31:55 AM
State House Update Districts 101-203:

District 114:

This district was already on the low end of Likely D, as Kosierowski likely overperformed against her special election opponent after he was found to have made Islamophobic Facebook posts, but the state GOP has revealed that they'll be targeting her seat with ad campaigns, and I know they'd like to make inroads against the relatively strong Lackawanna County Democratic machine.  I'm gonna nudge this rating over the edge into Lean D territory, but I still expect Kosierowski to hold this seat without that brutal of a fight.

Likely D --> Lean D

District 119:

Another NEPA seat held by Dems, this one is trending away from the incumbent, and has also been placed on the state GOP hit list.  This one looks a lot more vulnerable, and Trump support in Luzerne County is at scary levels, so a general election featuring Trump will likely drive turnout in this district against Mullery, this district's incumbent.

Tilt D --> Tossup


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on July 31, 2019, 09:17:21 PM
State House Update District 104:

While at Harrisburg Pride over the weekend, I got to meet Jesse Gantt, the vice-president of a local school board who is running against Sue Helm in the 104th House District.  A realtor and self-proclaimed "huge NASA nerd", he doesn't seem like the strongest possible candidate for the seat, which Helm has held since 2006.  Helm, who usually wins about a 10 point margin in her re-election campaigns, still looks the clear favorite to retain her seat this cycle.

Lean R --> Lean R


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on August 11, 2019, 05:06:34 AM
State Senate District 17 Update:

Union organizer and activist Linda Fields, who drew significant visibility last cycle for her 5-point loss to Republican incumbent Bob Mensch in State Senate District 24, has decided to carpetbag to District 17 and primary Daylin Leach, bringing his number of primary challengers so far to three.  I'm not sure the Dem leadership of the 17th District will throw their support behind a carpetbagger, but honestly who knows.  This primary is shaping up to be a mess.

https://wskg.org/news/fellow-dems-challenging-leach-promise-similar-policies-but-a-change-in-culture/ (https://wskg.org/news/fellow-dems-challenging-leach-promise-similar-policies-but-a-change-in-culture/)

Likely D --> Likely D


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on August 25, 2019, 03:10:29 AM
Updates:


State Senate District 15:

Republican incumbent John DiSanto, who has pushed for school property tax elimination, is reportedly delinquent to the tune of over $14,000 in property taxes on acreage that he owns with his brother.  While he claims that the bill was simply "overlooked", it's not a good look, and will provide his eventual Democratic challenger with another puddle of mud to sling from.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2019/08/pa-state-senator-brother-to-pay-delinquent-14k-property-tax-bill.html (https://www.pennlive.com/news/2019/08/pa-state-senator-brother-to-pay-delinquent-14k-property-tax-bill.html)

This news in and of itself didn't provide enough impetus for me to move the race, but there's a highly competitive US Congressional race between current Rep Scott Perry and Auditor General Eugene DePasquale shaping up in the US Congressional District that covers the Dauphin County portion of District 15.  Increased turnout from another aggressive campaign in the more heavily Democratic portion of the district should benefit DiSanto's challenger, if even a little, so out of an abundance of caution, I'm shifting this race to Tossup.

Tilt R --> Tossup


State House District 44:

2018 candidate and eventual loser Michele Knoll has announced that she'll challenge current incumbent Valerie Gaydos again in 2020.  Doesn't change much yet for me in terms of prediction; Knoll doesn't come off as a played-out retread candidate, and her name recognition in the district could help, but Gaydos will also have two years to entrench herself.

https://sewickley.triblive.com/user-submitted-content/michele-knoll-announces-candidacy/ (https://sewickley.triblive.com/user-submitted-content/michele-knoll-announces-candidacy/)

Tilt R --> Tilt R


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on September 04, 2019, 09:43:34 PM
State House Update:

District 85:

The special election went pretty much as expected; the Dem challenger closed the margins a little bit in the special election last month, but nowhere near enough to even be close to competitive.  Republican Daniel Rowe held this seat for the state GOP, and I don't expect it to be competitive in 2020, either.

https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_District_85 (https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_District_85)

Strong R --> Strong R


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on September 18, 2019, 08:25:48 AM
State Senator Mike Folmer (R-Lebanon) charged with child porn possession (https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/18/us/pennsylvania-state-senator-child-pornography-charges/index.html)


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Lisa's voting Biden on September 18, 2019, 08:32:20 AM
State Senator Mike Folmer (R-Lebanon) charged with child porn possession (https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/18/us/pennsylvania-state-senator-child-pornography-charges/index.html)
Democrats won't be able to pick this one up. SD-48 will elect another Republican after this (has been Solid R since the 1960s).


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on September 18, 2019, 09:00:33 AM
State Senator Mike Folmer (R-Lebanon) charged with child porn possession (https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/18/us/pennsylvania-state-senator-child-pornography-charges/index.html)

Democrats won't be able to pick this one up. SD-48 will elect another Republican after this (has been Solid R since the 1960s).

Well yeah, unfortunately.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on September 18, 2019, 01:50:20 PM
State Senator Mike Folmer (R-Lebanon) charged with child porn possession (https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/18/us/pennsylvania-state-senator-child-pornography-charges/index.html)

When I was browsing Reddit and saw the article title, but without the party ID, I was 99% sure it was a Republican.

B--b-b--ut PizzaGate!


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on October 03, 2019, 11:29:55 PM
Sorry the updates have fallen off, you guys.  Have had a ton of personal stuff to attend to.
Anyway, here are some State Senate updates:


State Senate District 9:

Endangered Republican Thomas Killion has gotten another challenger in what should be one of PA Election Night 2020's top races to watch.  Local labor organizer and plumber John Kane has announced his intent to seek the Democratic nomination, and this race, as PA Dems' best pickup opportunity in the State Senate, should continue to attract more challengers to Killion as we get closer to 2020.

https://www.delcotimes.com/news/local/labor-leader-kane-eyes-dem-nod-to-challenge-killion/article_70497afe-e61e-11e9-ba86-dfb35f3d830b.html (https://www.delcotimes.com/news/local/labor-leader-kane-eyes-dem-nod-to-challenge-killion/article_70497afe-e61e-11e9-ba86-dfb35f3d830b.html)

Tilt D --> Tilt D


State Senate District 48:

In a seat that wasn't scheduled to be in play until 2022, the resignation of former State Senator Mike Folmer over child porn charges has thrown this seat into contention, with both parties scrambling to field candidates for the January 14th special election.  This badly gerrymandered district encompasses Lebanon County, as well as portions of Dauphin and York Counties, and is a very Republican district, voting nearly two-thirds Republican in 2018.  Barring a miracle, this district should stay Republican.  So far there are three announced Republican candidates for the district, including Lebanon County District Attorney Dave Arnold, State House Representative Russ Diamond, and think-tank CEO Matthew Brouillette.  If Diamond were to win this Senate seat and his House seat were vacated, it would also likely remain Republican, as it is a very conservative district.

http://pressandjournal.com/stories/third-republican-declares-candidacy-for-folmers-state-senate-seat,66762 (http://pressandjournal.com/stories/third-republican-declares-candidacy-for-folmers-state-senate-seat,66762)

Strong R


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Flyersfan232 on October 13, 2019, 03:34:02 PM
Under a fair map democrats would likely be favored to gain one or both chambers. The gerrymandering will become much less severe come 2022 due to Wolf winning reelection
D favor gerrymandering


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: lfromnj on October 13, 2019, 03:52:01 PM
Btw whatd the odds that Cambria county democrat in like a +30 trump seat wins?. 1%?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on October 14, 2019, 06:12:23 PM
Btw whatd the odds that Cambria county democrat in like a +30 trump seat wins?. 1%?

Mayyyyyyybe 5% at the high end?  Central Pennsylvania politics is a weak spot for me in terms of state knowledge, but this seat is unlikely to flip unless there's a perfect storm in favor of Dems, with better margins than 2018 and an inexplicable rebound of Dem support in aging industrial towns(this is the type of area where you might think ticket-splitting Republican presidential voters are likely to still exist, but recent elections haven't borne that out too much).  Are you referring to the senate seat that contains Cambria, or the house seats that cover it?  I can do some deeper dives than I have and come up with some stats if you'd like.    :d


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on November 06, 2019, 03:50:30 AM
State House Update:

District 18:

As I had been predicting, current Republican incumbent Gene DiGirolamo has won a seat on the Bucks County Commission, opening up his state house seat in the competitive Bensalem Township.  The seat would likely have been Lean R with DiGirolamo, but as an open seat this race looks like a Tilt D or Tossup.  Today's Bensalem Township vote margins point towards a Tossup race, but the last presidential cycle gave Clinton a nearly 9 point win, so I'm updating this race to Tilt D.

http://www.buckscountyvotes.org/ (http://www.buckscountyvotes.org/)

Tilt R --> Tilt D


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on November 19, 2019, 09:11:05 PM
State Senate Update:

District 14:

Not a 2020 seat, but Democrat John Yudichak of the 14th Senate District has changed his registration to Independent and plans to start attending GOP caucus meetings.  Yudichak's main complaint seems to be "party purity tests", while the PA Democratic leadership maintains that the state party is open to all types of Democrats.  This defection deals a serious blow to Democrats' hopes of flipping the State Senate in 2020, and leaves John Blake of the 22nd district as the only Democrat to represent any portion of Northeastern PA.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2019/11/pa-dems-lose-a-state-senator-john-yudichak-of-luzerne-county-declares-himself-independent-will-caucus-with-gop.html (https://www.pennlive.com/news/2019/11/pa-dems-lose-a-state-senator-john-yudichak-of-luzerne-county-declares-himself-independent-will-caucus-with-gop.html)

Democratic --> Independent


State Senate Overall Rating:

With the defection of Yudichak, Democrats would have to flip the relatively red 13th district, which is Lancaster County, a trending Dem area, but one that's not trending fast enough to make recent races close.  The seat could flip in theory, but it's not at all likely, and thus Democrats are unlikely to flip the State Senate in 2020.

Estimated Chance of Control:

45%D/55%R --> 10%D/90%R


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: wbrocks67 on November 20, 2019, 07:23:24 AM
It'd be nice if we could get un-gerrymandered maps for State Senate and State House but alas...


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 20, 2019, 11:20:27 AM
You’d think that with a divided government, both sides would agree to a non-partisan redistricting commission in PA.  Is there anything like this working it’s way toward passage?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 20, 2019, 06:50:02 PM
If Wolf and the legislature can't agree on a map, wouldn't that mean the PASC gets to draw it?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Mr.Phips on November 20, 2019, 06:55:35 PM
If Wolf and the legislature can't agree on a map, wouldn't that mean the PASC gets to draw it?

Yep.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 20, 2019, 06:57:16 PM
Well then, we will get un-gerrymandered maps for State Senate and State House soon enough.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Badger on November 20, 2019, 07:40:26 PM
Well then, we will get un-gerrymandered maps for State Senate and State House soon enough.

But when?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 20, 2019, 07:42:05 PM
Well then, we will get un-gerrymandered maps for State Senate and State House soon enough.

But when?

For the 2022 cycle, as always happens with a decennial redistricting.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Orser67 on November 26, 2019, 10:35:22 AM
There's an article (https://www.inquirer.com/news/pennsylvania-legislature-democrats-2020-election-20191125.html?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar) in the Philadelphia Inquirer today about the PA state legislative races. As anyone following these races might expect, it mentions that the party-switcher in the state senate will make picking up that chamber significantly more difficult for Democrats, and that leading Democrats now seem to be more focused on picking up the state house of representatives.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: lfromnj on November 26, 2019, 03:52:15 PM
Trump +31 state house D rep retiring
SAFE R
somehow it was obama plus 5 in 2012. These swings are insane.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on November 26, 2019, 11:12:27 PM
State House Updates, Retirement Edition:

District 66:

Republican incumbent Cris Dush is retiring at the end of his term in this blood-red Western PA district, but that shouldn't put the district in any danger of flipping.

https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/dush-announces-retirement-in-2020-third-lawmaker-to-call-it-quits-this-november/ (https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/dush-announces-retirement-in-2020-third-lawmaker-to-call-it-quits-this-november/)

Strong R --> Strong R


District 123:

Democratic incumbent Neal Goodman is retiring at the end of his term in this heavily red Schuylkill County coal country district.  The GOP hadn't challenged him in years, which is what my initial prediction was predicated on, but unless the GOP again has a massive recruiting failure, Goodman's retirement almost certainly means that this district flips.

https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/democratic-rep-neal-goodman-is-the-latest-legislative-retirement/ (https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/democratic-rep-neal-goodman-is-the-latest-legislative-retirement/)

Likely D --> Likely R


District 154:

Democratic incumbent Steve McCarter is retiring at the end of his term, which should open the door for another Democrat to succeed him, as this district is very blue.

https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/montco-dem-mccarter-announces-2020-retirement/ (https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/montco-dem-mccarter-announces-2020-retirement/)

Strong D --> Strong D


District 160:

Republican incumbent Steve Barrar is the second Steve to announce his retirement at the end of this term, and his Chester/Delaware County district is a serious 2020 battleground.  He won the district in 2018 by about 2.5 points, but Governor Wolf won the district with nearly 60 percent of the vote, and Clinton also carried the district by 2 points in 2016.  It remains to be seen what kind of candidates both parties will field in this district in 2020, but given the GOP extirpation occurring in suburban SEPA, I'm gonna start an open race in this district at Tossup, with the possibility of quickly moving to Tilt D depending on candidate selection.

https://www.penncapital-star.com/government-politics/veteran-delco-lawmaker-barrar-to-retire-at-the-end-of-his-term/ (https://www.penncapital-star.com/government-politics/veteran-delco-lawmaker-barrar-to-retire-at-the-end-of-his-term/)

Tilt R --> Tossup


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Lourdes on December 04, 2019, 04:11:34 PM


The previous representative also resigned over corruption, whose seat rep. Johnson-Harrell took over after a special election earlier this year.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 04, 2019, 06:47:44 PM
Damn that’s a shame... anyways, the special is Mega Titanium D... that district is smack in the middle of Philadelphia.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on December 06, 2019, 05:06:34 PM
Whoo boy.  There's an embarrassingly long record of corruption in that seat.  Was hoping Johnson-Harrell would end it.     >_<    Anyway, agree with others; seat is Safe D.  Let's hope the third rep this term can give more ethical representation to Philadelphians.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on December 24, 2019, 03:25:03 AM
State House Updates, Retirement Edition 2.0:


District 8:

Republican Tedd Nesbit is resigning from this deeply red northwestern PA district to take a judicial seat he won this November.  The seat being open might knock down the margins a bit in 2020, but hell would freeze over before this district flips.  Veronica Cardello, a local realtor and Republican, has announced that she will run for this seat.

http://www.butlereagle.com/article/20191202/NEWS12/712029884 (http://www.butlereagle.com/article/20191202/NEWS12/712029884)

Strong R --> Strong R


District 58:

Another Republican resigning to take a position as a judge, Justin Walsh's exit has one silver lining for the state GOP, as he was dogged by multiple criminal convictions, yet also managed to not only flip this district in 2016, but actually improve upon those numbers in 2018.  The Republican who runs to fill this seat should benefit from the region's conservative trend, but perhaps not as much as Walsh would have as an incumbent.  Two Democrats have already announced their intention to contest this seat; an Army veteran and a local small business owner.

https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/yough-school-board-president-running-for-state-rep/ (https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/yough-school-board-president-running-for-state-rep/)

Likely R --> Lean R


District 131:

Republican Justin Simmons, who represented this seat since 2010, has announced that he will be retiring at the end of his term.  Straddling a trio of the north-end Philly burb counties, this district is an even more enticing target for Dems now that it's an open seat.  Simmons had held the district for the GOP in several close elections in the past, but will the state Republicans be able to hang on to the district in 2020?  We'll have to see.

https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-house-openings-2020-election-20191220-u3gpfv7llvgbfa2uutqep3qxca-story.html (https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-house-openings-2020-election-20191220-u3gpfv7llvgbfa2uutqep3qxca-story.html)

Tilt R --> Tossup


District 138:

Republican Marcia Hahn is retiring at the end of her term in this relatively Republican Northampton County district.  This district could potentially become competitive, but isn't likely to unless a lot of things go right for the eventual Democratic nominee.

https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-house-openings-2020-election-20191220-u3gpfv7llvgbfa2uutqep3qxca-story.html (https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-house-openings-2020-election-20191220-u3gpfv7llvgbfa2uutqep3qxca-story.html)

Likely R --> Likely R


District 147:

Republican Caucus Chairwoman Marcy Toepel is retiring at the end of her term, leaving this northern Montgomery County district open, and likely making it a stretch target for the state Dems.  It has a hard GOP lean, but a strong Democrat challenger could likely make the GOP nominee sweat.

https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/high-ranking-house-republican-toepel-announces-2020-retirement/ (https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/high-ranking-house-republican-toepel-announces-2020-retirement/)

Likely R --> Lean R




Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Frenchrepublican on December 24, 2019, 05:11:00 AM
State House Updates, Retirement Edition 2.0:


District 8:

Republican Tedd Nesbit is resigning from this deeply red northwestern PA district to take a judicial seat he won this November.  The seat being open might knock down the margins a bit in 2020, but hell would freeze over before this district flips.  Veronica Cardello, a local realtor and Republican, has announced that she will run for this seat.

http://www.butlereagle.com/article/20191202/NEWS12/712029884 (http://www.butlereagle.com/article/20191202/NEWS12/712029884)

Strong R --> Strong R


District 58:

Another Republican resigning to take a position as a judge, Justin Walsh's exit has one silver lining for the state GOP, as he was dogged by multiple criminal convictions, yet also managed to not only flip this district in 2016, but actually improve upon those numbers in 2018.  The Republican who runs to fill this seat should benefit from the region's conservative trend, but perhaps not as much as Walsh would have as an incumbent.  Two Democrats have already announced their intention to contest this seat; an Army veteran and a local small business owner.

https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/yough-school-board-president-running-for-state-rep/ (https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/yough-school-board-president-running-for-state-rep/)

Likely R --> Lean R


District 131:

Republican Justin Simmons, who represented this seat since 2010, has announced that he will be retiring at the end of his term.  Straddling a trio of the north-end Philly burb counties, this district is an even more enticing target for Dems now that it's an open seat.  Simmons had held the district for the GOP in several close elections in the past, but will the state Republicans be able to hang on to the district in 2020?  We'll have to see.

https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-house-openings-2020-election-20191220-u3gpfv7llvgbfa2uutqep3qxca-story.html (https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-house-openings-2020-election-20191220-u3gpfv7llvgbfa2uutqep3qxca-story.html)

Tilt R --> Tossup


District 138:

Republican Marcia Hahn is retiring at the end of her term in this relatively Republican Northampton County district.  This district could potentially become competitive, but isn't likely to unless a lot of things go right for the eventual Democratic nominee.

https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-house-openings-2020-election-20191220-u3gpfv7llvgbfa2uutqep3qxca-story.html (https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-house-openings-2020-election-20191220-u3gpfv7llvgbfa2uutqep3qxca-story.html)

Likely R --> Likely R


District 147:

Republican Caucus Chairwoman Marcy Toepel is retiring at the end of her term, leaving this northern Montgomery County district open, and likely making it a stretch target for the state Dems.  It has a hard GOP lean, but a strong Democrat challenger could likely make the GOP nominee sweat.

https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/high-ranking-house-republican-toepel-announces-2020-retirement/ (https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/high-ranking-house-republican-toepel-announces-2020-retirement/)

Likely R --> Lean R




Rating HD58 as Lean R seems very optimistic. Trump won this district 63/34 and even Romney prevailed here by a 55/43 margin. And considering how red Westmoreland is becoming, I think Strong R would bem more approriate


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on December 25, 2019, 06:12:41 PM
Rating HD58 as Lean R seems very optimistic. Trump won this district 63/34 and even Romney prevailed here by a 55/43 margin. And considering how red Westmoreland is becoming, I think Strong R would bem more approriate

I could definitely see an argument for Likely R, which I almost left it at.  I don't buy the Trump trends being permanent, and downballot Democrats can easily outperform the top of the ballot.  I'd hesitate to rate this as Strong R, though, because in my ratings, Strong R is reserved for districts where the opposing party has only a snowball's chance in hell of winning, and what I see in the data for this district looks more the Greenland ice cap in hell for Democrats.  But thanks for your rating!  I hope you're gonna be following the PA state elections in 2020 with the rest of us.     :D


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Badger on December 27, 2019, 07:44:26 PM
With his record of convictions, how the hell did Justin Walsh get elected JUDGE?!? :o


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on December 27, 2019, 07:54:26 PM
With his record of convictions, how the hell did Justin get elected JUDGE?!? :o

That's WePA Republicans to you...


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Mexican Wolf on December 27, 2019, 08:09:12 PM
It's too bad Senate District 48 is so red; Schroeder would make a great State Senator. Here's hoping for a massive upset.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Lourdes on January 07, 2020, 03:25:48 PM


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on January 10, 2020, 12:17:23 PM
George Scott, a PA10 Democratic congressional candidate who tried and narrowly failed to flip the house district, is throwing his hat in the ring for the PA Senate 15th capitol district race this year.  

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/01/democrat-george-scott-says-hes-running-for-state-senate-seat-in-harrisburg-report.html (https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/01/democrat-george-scott-says-hes-running-for-state-senate-seat-in-harrisburg-report.html)


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Boomerberg2020 on January 17, 2020, 01:10:10 AM
I think the Dem nominee for president will decide how the suburban seats vote downballot. Someone like Biden or Amy would hold these seats for dems while Bernie or Warren would cause major damage.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Ebsy on January 22, 2020, 11:21:01 PM


Seems significant, Turzai is in a swing seat is he not?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on January 23, 2020, 11:57:05 AM
Turzai retiring:



Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: wbrocks67 on January 23, 2020, 12:31:13 PM
Can't imagine that says anything good for the PA GOP this year.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on January 23, 2020, 06:51:45 PM

Seems significant, Turzai is in a swing seat is he not?

It’s a solidly Lean R district, Likely R if Turzai had continued to entrench himself.  As an open district, the 28th is definitely a stretch target for House Dems, and if it flips, it’s likely that Dems are taking the State House.  In a neutral or mildly pro-Democrat environment, the 28th will probably stay Republican.

However, his retirement is surprising given the likelihood of the GOP hanging on to the PA state legislature.  Maybe the state GOP is seeing stormclouds in their internal polls?  Or maybe Turzai actually just wants to spend more time with his family.  It’s a long trek from Allegheny to Harrisburg.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Badger on February 12, 2020, 09:21:10 PM
I grew up in the 28th District. The fact that it was even remotely competitive this past election still boggles my mind. Of course it also blew my mind in the decidedly upper-middle-class Housing Development I lived in to see Obama signs springing up in 2008. Going home to visit my parents from Ohio I thought I'd somehow driven through a wormhole into an alternative universe.

Upper middle-class suburbs in Western Pennsylvania like the 28th District are shifting Democratic know where remotely to the same speed that Philadelphia suburbs have over the last 20 years, but there is some shifting.

Who knows, the race was closeish in 2018. Still a reach for Democrats though


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Oryxslayer on February 13, 2020, 09:06:38 AM


Not just Turzai but also Scarnati is now out. The democrats shouldn't be favored to flip both chambers, so what gives? Do both of them fear next years redistricting/reapportionment battle? 


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: wbrocks67 on February 13, 2020, 09:09:16 AM


Not just Turzai but also Scarnati is now out. The democrats shouldn't be favored to flip both chambers, so what gives? Do both of them fear next years redistricting/reapportionment battle? 

It's gotta be something. Common sense would tell you Rs will probably keep the chamber, so it seems odd that they'd both be retiring. Do they know something we don't?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on February 13, 2020, 09:12:21 AM


Not just Turzai but also Scarnati is now out. The democrats shouldn't be favored to flip both chambers, so what gives? Do both of them fear next years redistricting/reapportionment battle? 

I'll f--kin' take it.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Orser67 on February 14, 2020, 10:45:06 AM
Upper middle-class suburbs in Western Pennsylvania like the 28th District are shifting Democratic know where remotely to the same speed that Philadelphia suburbs have over the last 20 years, but there is some shifting.

Yeah, although the Greater Pittsburgh area overall has shifted against Democrats, Allegheny County (which contains both Pittsburgh and many surrounding suburbs, including at least parts of Turzai's district) was one of just five counties where Clinton improved on Obama's margin of victory. Three of the other four counties that trended Democratic in 2016 were suburban counties in SEPA, and the remaining county is home to Penn State.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on February 22, 2020, 11:02:47 PM
Alrighty, so filing wrapped up on Tuesday(sidenote, the filing line was hell; I waited with my candidate for 4 hours and I swear they were trying to winnow the candidate fields through a literal trial by fire with how high the thermostat was), so we finally have an idea of what the initial candidate spread looks like.


State Senate Primary Candidates:


District 1:

(Philadelphia)

Larry Farnese(I)
Nikil Saval

District 3:

(Philadelphia)

Sharif Street(I)

District 5:

(Philadelphia)

John Sabatina Jr(I)

District 7:

(Montgomery/Philadelphia)

Vincent Hughes(I)
Devon Cade

District 9:

(Chester/Delaware)

Brett Burman
John Kane
Robert McKinstry Jr
Thomas Killion(I)

District 11:

(Berks)

Judy Schwank(I)
Annette Baker

District 13:

(Lancaster)

Craig Lehman
Janet Temin
Scott Martin(I)

District 15:

(Dauphin/Perry)

George Scott
Alvin Taylor Sr
John DiSanto(I)

District 17:

(Delaware/Montgomery)

Daylin Leach(I)
Elvira Berry
Amanda Cappelletti
Parthenia Izzard
Ellen Fisher

District 19:

(Chester)

Kyle Boyer
Carolyn Comitta
Don Vymazal II
Kevin Runey
Amber Turner

District 21:

(Butler/Clarion/Forest/Venango/Warren)

Shelbie Stromyer
Scott Hutchinson(I)

District 23:

(Bradford/Lycoming/Sullivan/Susquehanna/Union)

Jackie Baker
Gene Yaw(I)

District 25:

(Cameron/Clearfield/Clinton/Elk/Jefferson/McKean/Potter/Tioga)

Margaret Brown
James Brown
Cris Dush
John Suplizio

District 27:

(Columbia/Luzerne/Montour/Northumberland/Snyder)

Michelle Siegel
John Gordner(I)

District 29:

(Berks/Schuylkill)

Dave Argall(I)

District 31:

(Cumberland/York)

John Bosha
Richard Coplen
Shanna Danielson
Michael Regan(I)

District 33:

(Adams/Cumberland/Franklin/York)

Richard Sterner
Doug Mastriano(I)

District 35:

(Bedford/Cambria/Clearfield)

Shaun Dougherty
Wayne Langerholc Jr(I)

District 37:

(Allegheny/Washington)

Pam Iovino(I)
Jeffrey Neff
Devlin Robinson

District 39:

(Westmoreland)

Tay Waltenbaugh
Kim Ward(I)

District 41:

(Armstrong/Butler/Indiana/Westmoreland)

Anthony Deloreto
Joe Pittman(I)

District 43:

(Allegheny)

Jay Costa Jr(I)
William Brittain

District 45:

(Allegheny/Westmoreland)

James Brewster(I)
Nicole Ziccarelli

District 47:

(Beaver/Butler/Lawrence)

John Krizan III
Elder Vogel(I)

District 49:

(Erie)

Andre Horton
Julie Slomski
Daniel Laughlin(I)


Key Takeaways:

- Dems fail to contest one race, GOP leaves 5 races uncontested

- Everyone wants to knock out Killion and Leach

- No GOP Senators face primary challenges, allowing them to save resources for the general

- None of the competitive general election Dem-held districts feature a contested primary

- Both the GOP and Dem open districts feature well-known contenders from their party

- The PA State Senate could have its first openly queer Senator if Brett Burman wins the 9th


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: MaxQue on February 23, 2020, 06:05:26 PM
Any possibility than a primary challenge is successful?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on February 23, 2020, 06:30:42 PM
Any possibility than a primary challenge is successful?

Which race?  Daylin Leach could easily be knocked off, yes, the others, I doubt it as things stand today.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on February 23, 2020, 07:14:14 PM
State Representative Primary Candidates District 1-50:


District 1:

(Erie)

Patrick Harkins(I)

District 2:

(Erie)

Robert Merski(I)

District 3:

(Erie)

Ryan Bizzarro(I)
Greg Hayes

District 4:

(Erie)

Curtis Sonney(I)

District 5:

(Berks)

Graham Gonzales
Barry Jozwiak(I)

District 6:

(Crawford/Erie)

Matthew Ferrence
Bradley Roae(I)

District 7:

(Mercer)

Mark Longietti(I)

District 8:

(Butler/Mercer)

Phillip Heasley
Timothy Bonner
Scott Jaillet

District 9:

(Lawrence)

Chris Sainato(I)
Carol Ryan

District 10:

(Beaver/Butler/Lawrence)

Kolbe Cole
Aaron Bernstine(I)

District 11:

(Butler)

Samuel Doctor
Marci Mustello(I)
Ryan Covert

District 12:

(Butler)

Daniel Smith Jr
Daryl Metcalfe(I)
Scott Timko

District 13:

(Chester/Lancaster)

Richard Ruggieri III
John Lawrence(I)

District 14:

(Beaver/Butler)

Zachary Wilson
James Marshall(I)

District 15:

(Beaver/Washington)

Robert Williams Sr
Joshua Kail(I)

District 16:

(Allegheny/Beaver)

Robert Matzie(I)
Rico Elmore

District 17:

(Crawford/Erie/Lawrence/Mercer)

Jeffery Omelian
Parke Wentling(I)

District 18:

(Bucks)

Harold Hayes
Kathleen Tomlinson

District 19:

(Allegheny)

Jake Wheatley(I)
Aerion Abney

District 20:

(Allegheny)

Adam Ravenstahl(I)
Emily Kinkead

District 21:

(Allegheny)

Sara Innamorato(I)
John Waugh

District 22:

(Lehigh)

Peter Schweyer(I)
Enid Santiago

District 23:

(Allegheny)

Dan Frankel(I)

District 24:

(Allegheny)

Edward Gainey(I)
William Anderson

District 25:

(Allegheny)

Brandon Markosek(I)
John Ritter

District 26:

(Chester/Montgomery)

Paul Friel Jr
Frank Gillen
Timothy Hennessey(I)

District 27:

(Allegheny)

Daniel Deasy(I)

District 28:

(Allegheny)

Emily Skopov
Elizabeth Blackburn
Michael Heckmann
Robert Mercuri

District 29:

(Bucks)

Marlene Katz
Meghan Schroeder(I)
Gregory Archetto

District 30:

(Allegheny)

Melissa Shulman
Marco Attisano
Lori Mizgorski(I)

District 31:

(Bucks)

Perry Warren(I)
Charles Adcock

District 32:

(Allegheny)

Anthony DeLuca(I)
Erin Vecchio

District 33:

(Allegheny/Westmoreland)

Francis Dermody(I)
Carrie Delrosso

District 34:

(Allegheny)

Summer Lee(I)
Christopher Roland

District 35:

(Allegheny)

Austin Davis(I)

District 36:

(Allegheny)

Jessica Benham
Mark Johnson
Heather Kass
Edward Moeller
Jacob Nixon
Adrian Doyle

District 37:

(Lancaster)

John Padora Jr
Melinda Fee(I)

District 38:

(Allegheny)

Anthony Dicenzo
Nickolas Pisciottano
Victoria Schmotzer

District 39:

(Allegheny/Washington)

Sara-Summer Oliphant
Michael Puskaric(I)
Thomas Kirsch

District 40:

(Allegheny/Washington)

Sharon Guidi
Natalie Mihalek(I)

District 41:

(Lancaster)

Michele Wherley
Brett Miller(I)
Bradford Witmer

District 42:

(Allegheny)

Daniel Miller(I)

District 43:

(Lancaster)

Keith Greiner(I)

District 44:

(Allegheny)

Michele Knoll
Valerie Gaydos(I)
Robert Doddato

District 45:

(Allegheny)

Anita Kulik(I)
Daniel Devito
Malek Francis

District 46:

(Allegheny/Washington)

Byron Timmins
Jason Ortitay(I)

District 47:

(York)

Keith Gillespie(I)

District 48:

(Washington)

Harlan Shober Jr
Timothy O'Neal(I)

District 49:

(Fayette/Washington)

Randy Barli
Donald Cook(I)
Anthiny Bottino Jr

District 50:

(Fayette/Green/Washington)

Pam Snyder(I)
Larry Yost II


Key Takeaways Districts 1-50:

- Dems fail to contest 3/50 seats, GOP fails to contest 14/50 seats

- The GOP not contesting District 7 is a recruiting failure.  While the district won't be as easy to pick up as you may think for a non-city Western PA district(in part because of its black population), this is still a district that Dems should not be given a free pass on if you're the state GOP

- 6 Dem incumbents face primary challengers, but none are in a competitive R/D district, while 7 GOP incumbents face primary challengers, and 5 of those are in seats I would consider at least Lean in terms of general election competitiveness, including 2 Tilt R and 1 Tossup races


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on February 23, 2020, 09:37:56 PM
Also, rebranding this thread as a general 2020 PA state elections megathread, as I don't see one already in existence, and we have a competitive Auditor General race coming up in 2020 as well.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Badger on February 24, 2020, 06:15:27 PM
Any possibility than a primary challenge is successful?

Which race?  Daylin Leach could easily be knocked off, yes, the others, I doubt it as things stand today.

But doesn't he have a decent chance of surviving only because his primary Challengers are so many and the splitting the vote? Or is one in particular emerging as the true contender to Leach?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on February 24, 2020, 08:52:13 PM
But doesn't he have a decent chance of surviving only because his primary Challengers are so many and the splitting the vote? Or is one in particular emerging as the true contender to Leach?

Yeah, that’s definitely a scenario that could play out!  Now, keep in mind that I’m not a SEPA Dem, so I don’t have my finger right on the pulse of that faction of the party, but overall I know that Leach is widely seen as a liability by the state party at large, and also by many Democratic voters.  I’ll be honest, I think it’s within the realm of possibility that the state party or major factions within it endorse one of Leach’s primary challengers, as we really don’t need to risk a mass refusal to vote if Leach is the general election candidate.  Like you said, with that many primary opponents, Leach could squeak through the pack, but he’s definitely in boiling hot water as it stands.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: Badger on February 25, 2020, 01:54:35 AM
But doesn't he have a decent chance of surviving only because his primary Challengers are so many and the splitting the vote? Or is one in particular emerging as the true contender to Leach?

Yeah, that’s definitely a scenario that could play out!  Now, keep in mind that I’m not a SEPA Dem, so I don’t have my finger right on the pulse of that faction of the party, but overall I know that Leach is widely seen as a liability by the state party at large, and also by many Democratic voters.  I’ll be honest, I think it’s within the realm of possibility that the state party or major factions within it endorse one of Leach’s primary challengers, as we really don’t need to risk a mass refusal to vote if Leach is the general election candidate.  Like you said, with that many primary opponents, Leach could squeak through the pack, but he’s definitely in boiling hot water as it stands.

I hear you. But doesn't Leach also have the slight advantage that his seat is safely democratic and has no realistic chance of flipping even if he is the nominee?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on February 25, 2020, 12:56:35 PM
I hear you. But doesn't Leach also have the slight advantage that his seat is safely democratic and has no realistic chance of flipping even if he is the nominee?

Yeah, he definitely has that advantage!  I would say that there is a small chance of the district flipping if he is the general election nominee; not a huge one, but Roy Moore managed to lose in territory that was about as favorable to him as this district is to Leach, and I can't imagine suburban Pennsylvania Democrats who might not vote for him are going to be more skeptical of sexual harassment/assault claims than Alabama Republicans were.  Even if he is the nominee, he's heavily favored, but I imagine the party would prefer a less problematic nominee.  But we'll have to see!


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on February 25, 2020, 02:11:01 PM
Boooo post the state representative candidates for the remaining districts! I just want to see my district--even though I know who's running and am volunteering for the Democratic candidate :P


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on February 25, 2020, 02:33:34 PM
State Representative Primary Candidates District 51-100:


District 51:

(Fayette/Somerset)

Matthew Dowling(I)

District 52:

(Fayette/Westmoreland)

Harry Cochran
Ryan Warner(I)

District 53:

(Montgomery)

Steven Malagari(I)
Allan Arnott

District 54:

(Allegheny/Westmoreland)

Robert Brooks(I)

District 55:

(Armstrong/Indiana/Westmoreland)

Joseph Petrarca(I)
Jason Silvis

District 56:

(Westmoreland)

George Dunbar(I)

District 57:

Eric Nelson(I)

District 58:

(Westmoreland)

Robert Prah Jr
Eric Davanzo

District 59:

(Somerset/Westmoreland)

Michael Reese(I)

District 60:

(Armstrong/Butler/Indiana)

Jeffrey Pyle(I)

District 61:

(Montgomery)

Laura Hanbidge(I)
Florence Friebel

District 62:

(Indiana)

Dennis Semsick
James Struzzi II(I)

District 63:

(Armstrong/Clarion/Forest)

Donna Oberlander(I)

District 64:

(Butler/Venango)

R. Lee James(I)

District 65:

(Crawford/Forest/Warren)

Kathy Rapp(I)

District 66:

(Indiana/Jefferson)

John Matson Jr
Brian Smith

District 67:

(Cameron/McKean/Potter)

Martin Causer(I)

District 68:

(Bradford/Potter/Tioga)

Clinton Owlett(I)

District 69:

(Bedford/Somerset)

Carl Metzgar(I)

District 70:

(Montgomery)

Matthew Bradford(I)
James Saring

District 71:

(Cambria/Somerset)

James Rigby(I)

District 72:

(Cambria)

Frank Burns(I)
Gerald Carnicella
Howard Terndrup

District 73:

(Cambria/Clearfield)

Thomas Sankey III(I)

District 74:

(Chester)

Dan Williams(I)
Dale Hensel

District 75:

(Clearfield/Elk)

Ryan Grimm
Michael Armanini
Michael Clement
Lisa Labrasca Becker

District 76:

(Centre/Clinton)

Joseph Waltz
Stephanie Borowicz(I)

District 77:

(Centre)

Harry Conklin(I)
Stephen Yetsko

District 78:

(Bedford/Franklin/Fulton)

Jesse Topper(I)

District 79:

(Blair)

Jason Runk
Louis Schmitt Jr(I)

District 80:

(Blair)

James Gregory(I)

District 81:

(Centre/Huntingdon/Mifflin)

Ian Kidd
Richard Irvin(I)

District 82:

(Franklin/Juniata/Mifflin)

Johnathan Hershey(I)

District 83:

(Lycoming)

Airneezer Paige
Jeff Wheeland(I)

District 84:

(Lycoming/Union)

Amanda Waldman
Joseph Hamm
David Hines

District 85:

(Snyder/Union)

David Rowe(I)

District 86:

(Cumberland/Perry)

William Benner III
Jedidiah Nessinger
Perry Stambaugh

District 87:

(Cumberland)

Heather Macdonald
Nicole Miller
Sean Quinlan
William Rothman(I)

District 88:

(Cumberland)

Tara Shakespeare
Sheryl Delozier(I)

District 89:

(Franklin)

Robert Kauffman(I)

District 90:

(Franklin)

Paul Schemel(I)

District 91:

(Adams)

Daniel Moul(I)

District 92:

(Cumberland/York)

Douglas Ross
Dawn Keefer(I)

District 93:

(York)

Paul Jones(I)

District 94:

(York)

Stanley Saylor(I)

District 95:

(York)

Carol Hill-Evans(I)
Kathryn French

District 96:

(Lancaster)

Michael Sturla(I)

District 97:

(Lancaster)

Dana Gulick
Steven Mentzer(I)

District 98:

(Dauphin/Lancaster)

William Troutman Jr
David Hickernell(I)

District 99:

(Lancaster)

Richard Hodge
David Zimmerman(I)

District 100:

(Lancaster)

Bryan Cutler(I)


Key Takeaways Districts 51-100:

- Dems contest only 24/50 of these seats, which are mostly heavily Republican seats; GOP contests 49/50

- Dems seem to have given up on ancestrally union/Dem districts like 51 and 71, which are both uncontested this cycle, and thus GOP locks, while they seem to be pushing harder in areas like Lancaster, York, and Cumberland Counties.  While I don't expect this strategy to pay off in 2020, as many of the York and Lancaster County districts are just too conservative, they are slowly trending left, so maybe it's a good long-term strategy to lay the groundwork for future cycles?

- The best hope for the endangered Democratic reps in Districts 55 and 72 was that their races would be uncontested, but that didn't pan out for either of them.  Expect these races to be nailbiters, and very possibly flips to the GOP


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on February 25, 2020, 02:42:18 PM
Boooo post the state representative candidates for the remaining districts! I just want to see my district--even though I know who's running and am volunteering for the Democratic candidate :P
Working on it!  Trying to update this+be the Field Director for one of the State Senate campaigns+do my day job has me like:

()

Which district/candidate ya volunteering for?  I'm working for Jackie Baker in District 23.    :d


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on February 25, 2020, 02:43:39 PM
You rock! I'm volunteering for Rick Hodge in District 99 :D This is the first time I'll be volunteering for a local campaign--also volunteering for Sarah Hammond for Congress in PA-11!


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: wbrocks67 on February 25, 2020, 02:43:54 PM
Can someone break down the special election for me?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on February 25, 2020, 03:05:53 PM
You rock! I'm volunteering for Rick Hodge in District 99 :D This is the first time I'll be volunteering for a local campaign--also volunteering for Sarah Hammond for Congress in PA-11!
Good luck!  That'll be a heavy lift in both those districts, but more power to you!  I'm also working for a Democrat in a very red district, so I'm strugglin along with ya.    :3


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on February 25, 2020, 03:17:39 PM
Can someone break down the special election for me?

Sure!  District 190 is an EXTREMELY Democratic North/West Philadelphia district, and features a face-off between Roni Green, a first-time Democrat candidate who was a 38th Ward committee person, and Wanda Logan, a Republican local businesswoman, who is also a perennial candidate for this seat.  Logan has previously run as a Democrat for this seat, in every regular election since 2012, and has lost every single primary, which is likely what caused her to bail out and run for the GOP nomination.  Logan may pull some voters from this district who know her from previous runs or from her business, but this election shouldn't be anywhere near close, and even if she did win, I could see Logan switching back to her old party.  Green should win this one no problem, and I hope, for the sake of the people in this district, that she escapes the legacy of corruption that has tossed out the last two reps from District 190.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on February 25, 2020, 07:19:46 PM
State Representative Primary Candidates District 101-150:


District 101:

(Lebanon)

Calvin Clements
Francis Ryan(I)

District 102:

(Lebanon)

Matthew Duval
Russ Diamond(I)

District 103:

(Dauphin)

Patty Kim(I)
Kelvin Maxson

District 104:

(Dauphin/Lebanon)

Patricia Smith
Susan Helm(I)
Travis Stauffer

District 105:

(Dauphin)

Brittney Rodas
Andrew Lewis(I)

District 106:

(Dauphin)

Lindsay Drew
Jonathan Keeler
Thomas Mehaffie III(I)
Robert Jeffries
Mimi Legro
Christopher Lupp

District 107:

(Columbia/Montour/Northumberland)

Kurt Masser(I)

District 108:

(Northumberland/Snyder)

Lynda Schlegel Culver(I)

District 109:

(Columbia)

William Monahan
David Millard(I)

District 110:

(Bradford/Sullivan/Susquehanna)

Tina Pickett(I)

District 111:

(Susquehanna/Wayne)

Jonathan Fritz(I)

District 112:

(Lackawanna)

Kyle Mullins(I)
Mary Noldy

District 113:

(Lackawanna)

Marty Flynn(I)
William Kresge

District 114:

(Lackawanna)

Bridget Kosierowski(I)
James May IV

District 115:

(Monroe)

Maureen Madden(I)
Maria Ridder

District 116:

(Luzerne)

Todd Eachus
Tarah Toohill(I)

District 117:

(Lackawanna/Luzerne/Wyoming)

Karen Boback(I)

District 118:

(Lackawanna/Luzerne)

Michael Carroll(I)
Andrew Holter

District 119:

(Luzerne)

Gerald Mullery(I)
John Chura
Andrew Gegaris Jr

District 120:

(Luzerne)

Joanna Smith
Aaron Kaufer(I)

District 121:

(Luzerne)

Edwin Pashinski(I)

District 122:

(Carbon)

Doyle Heffley(I)

District 123:

(Schuylkill)

Peter Symons Jr
John Leshko
Timothy Twardzik

District 124:

(Berks/Carbon/Schuylkill)

Taylor Picone
Jerome Knowles(I)

District 125:

(Dauphin/Schuylkill)

Hervey Breault II
Theresa Gaffney
Christy Joy
Joseph Kerwin

District 126:

(Berks)

Mark Rozzi(I)
James Oswald

District 127:

(Berks)

Raymond Baker
Cesar Cepeda
Robin Costenbader-Jacobson
Manuel Guzman Jr
Robert Melendez
Vincent Gagliardo Jr
Branden Moyer

District 128:

(Berks/Lancaster)

Mark Gillen(I)

District 129:

(Berks/Lancaster)

Kelly McDonough
James Cox Jr(I)

District 130:

(Berks)

Francis Foley Jr
David Maloney Sr(I)

District 131:

(Lehigh/Montgomery/Northampton)

Kevin Branco
Nathan Brown
Joseph Ellenberger
Vicki Lightcap
Milou Mackenzie

District 132:

(Lehigh)

Michael Schlossberg

District 133:

(Lehigh)

Jeanne McNeill(I)
David Molony

District 134:

(Berks/Lehigh)

Ryan Mackenzie(I)

District 135:

(Northampton)

Stephen Samuelson
Scott Hough

District 136:

(Northampton)

Robert Freeman(I)

District 137:

(Northampton)

Katelind Brennan
Joseph Emrick(I)

District 138:

(Northampton)

Tara Zrinski
Ann Flood
Anthony Tarsi

District 139:

(Pike/Wayne)

Marian Keegan
Michael Peifer(I)

District 140:

(Bucks)

John Galloway(I)
Jeanine McGee

District 141:

(Bucks)

Tina Davis(I)
Kelly Bellerby-Allen

District 142:

(Bucks)

Malinda Lareau
Frank Farry III(I)

District 143:

(Bucks)

Wendy Ullman(I)
Shelby Labs

District 144:

(Bucks)

Gary Spillane
F. Todd Polinchock(I)

District 145:

(Bucks)

Robyn Colajezzi
Craig Staats(I)

District 146:

(Montgomery)

Joseph Ciresi(I)
Thomas Neafcy Jr

District 147:

(Montgomery)

Jill Dennin
Tracy Pennycuick
Anna Scannapieco

District 148:

(Montgomery)

Mary Daley(I)
Allen Anderson

District 149:

(Montgomery)

Tim Briggs(I)

District 150:

(Montgomery)

Joseph Webster(I)
Beth Mazza


Key Takeaways Districts 101-150:

- In this mix of districts across Eastern PA, the GOP contests 45/50 districts, while Dems contest 41/50 districts

- Retirements in districts 125, 127, and 131 have set off primary feeding frenzies

- Among Democratic incumbents, only Mindy Fee, who represents the Harrisburg City district, has a primary challenger.  Two Republican incumbents have primary challengers, including Thomas Mehaffie of District 106, who has THREE.  I'll have to check into what he did to draw that much competition

- District 116 features an interesting matchup, as former Speaker of the PA State House Todd Eachus has come back 10 years after losing the seat to Tarah Toohill to challenge her for his old office.  Toohill has crushed Democratic challengers in recent elections, so I don't expect Eachus to win, but it's still an interesting race

- Democrats seem to again be focusing their attention on the growing Lehigh Valley/Lancaster areas, at the expense of northern and central districts, while Republicans are pushing the Northeast districts, trying to build momentum in Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on February 25, 2020, 10:41:05 PM
State Representative Primary Candidates District 151-203:


District 151:

(Montgomery)

Jonathan Kassa
William Stephens(I)

District 152:

(Montgomery/Philadelphia)

Nancy Guenst
Karen Houck

District 153:

(Montgomery)

Benjamin Sanchez(I)

District 154:

(Montgomery)

Jay Conners
Jennifer Lugar
Napoleon Nelson Sr
Adrienne Redd
Raymond Sosa
Gretchen Sprigg-Wiseheart
Kathleen Bowers

District 155:

(Chester)

Danielle Otten(I)
Rose Danese
Michael Taylor

District 156:

(Chester)

Carolyn Comitta(I)
Leonard Iacono

District 157:

(Chester/Montgomery)

Melissa Shusterman(I)

District 158:

(Chester)

Christina Sappey(I)
Eric Roe

District 159:

(Delaware)

Brian Kirkland(I)
Angela Prattis
Ruth Moton

District 160:

(Chester/Delaware)

Anton Andrew
Catherine Spahr
Wendell Williams

District 161:

(Delaware)

Leanne Krueger(I)
Ralph Shicatano Jr

District 162:

(Delaware)

David Delloso(I)
Peter Gaglio Jr

District 163:

(Delaware)

Michael Zabel(I)
Michael McCollum

District 164:

(Delaware)

Margo Davidson(I)

District 165:

(Delaware)

Jennifer O'Mara(I)
Robert Smythe Jr

District 166:

(Delaware/Montgomery)

Greg Vitali(I)
Jennifer Leith
Christine Boyle

District 167:

(Chester)

Kristine Howard(I)
Virginia Marcille-Kerslake
Wendy Leland

District 168:

(Delaware)

Debra Ciamacca
Brittany Forman
Christopher Quinn(I)

District 169:

(York)

Kate Klunk(I)

District 170:

(Philadelphia)

Martina White(I)

District 171:

(Centre/Mifflin)

Peter Buckland
Kerry Benninghoff

District 172:

(Montgomery/Philadelphia)

Kevin Boyle(I)
Haroon Bashir

District 173:

(Philadelphia)

Michael Driscoll(I)

District 174:

(Philadelphia)

Ed Neilson(I)

District 175:

(Philadelphia)

Marylouise Isaacson(I)
Jeffrey Dempsey
Vanessa McGrath

District 176:

(Monroe)

Claudette Williams
Jack Rader Jr(I)

District 177:

(Philadelphia)

Joe Hohenstein(I)
John Nungesser

District 178:

(Bucks)

Ann Mitchell
Wendi Thomas(I)

District 179:

(Philadelphia)

Jason Dawkins(I)

District 180:

(Philadelphia)

Angel Cruz(I)

District 181:

(Philadelphia)

Malcolm Kenyatta(I)
Charlotte Greer

District 182:

(Philadelphia)

Brian Sims(I)
Andrew Murray
Marisa Shaaban

District 183:

(Lehigh/Northampton)

Jason Ruff
Zachary Mako(I)

District 184:

(Philadelphia)

Elizabeth Fielder(I)
Louis Menna IV

District 185:

(Delaware/Philadelphia)

Maria Donatucci(I)
Wilson Alexander
Evette Thompson
Regina Young

District 186:

(Philadelphia)

Jordan Harris(I)

District 187:

(Berks/Lehigh)

Michael Blichar Jr
Gary Day(I)

District 188:

(Philadelphia)

James Roebuck(I)
Gregory Benjamin
Karen Dunn
Rick Krajewski

District 189:

(Monroe/Pike)

Adam Rodriguez
Rosemary Brown(I)

District 190:

(Philadelphia)

Gwendolyn Green(I)
Amen Brown
Samuel Downing
Michael Horsey
Roi Ligon Jr
Danyl Patterson
Theodore Smith
Wanda Logan

District 191:

(Delaware/Philadelphia)

Joanna McClinton(I)

District 192:

(Philadelphia)

Morgan Cephas(I)
Jasmine Reavis-Brown
D'Angelo Virgo

District 193:

(Adams/Cumberland)

Torren Ecker

District 194:

(Montgomery/Philadelphia)

Pamela DeLissio(I)
Lisa Riley
Bernard Strain

District 195:

(Philadelphia)

Donna Bullock(I)

District 196:

(York)

Seth Grove(I)

District 197:

(Philadelphia)

Danilo Burgos(I)

District 198:

(Philadelphia)

Fareed Abdullah
Nikki Bagby
Michael Cogbill
Supreme Dow
Darisha Parker
Bernard Williams

District 199:

(Cumberland)

Janelle Crossley
Barbara Gleim(I)

District 200:

(Philadelphia)

Chris Rabb(I)

District 201:

(Philadelphia)

Stephen Kinsey(I)

District 202:

(Philadelphia)

Jared Solomon(I)

District 203:

(Philadelphia)

Isabella Fitzgerald(I)


Key Takeaways Districts 151-203:

- GOP fails to contest 23/50 districts, which is pretty much expected, as this group contains a lot of Philly districts.  Dems contest all but 4 districts

- A TON of Philly Dems are getting primaried, but Philly districts are mostly non-competitive R/D districts

- A few suburban Dems who were recently elected are being primaried in competitive districts, which is not great in terms of saving resources for the general

- Dems fail to recruit a challenger to Martina White in Philadelphia's District 170, which frankly is disappointing/embarrassing for the state Dem party in such a winnable district


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on March 31, 2020, 03:44:15 PM
Apologies to anyone who may have been following this thread; updates fell off because I'm trying to digitize as much of my candidate's campaign as possible, given the COVID outbreak in PA.

Anyway, just put up the first statewide race; gonna do those before I update the state legislature races, as they're a lot quicker to do.  Thanks for following along and bearing with me!


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on May 28, 2020, 12:35:52 AM
So sorry for neglecting this thread; campaign work has consumed me.  That said, it appears that the PA State House GOP just shot themselves in the foot.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/05/pa-house-democrats-say-keeping-gop-colleagues-exposure-to-covid-19-private-is-unacceptable.html (https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/05/pa-house-democrats-say-keeping-gop-colleagues-exposure-to-covid-19-private-is-unacceptable.html)

The PA House GOP leadership allegedly did not inform House Democrats that multiple GOP House members, who continued coming to committee meetings with no protective PPE, had tested positive for coronavirus.  And now the video recordings of the meetings in question that featured close contact between unmasked COVID-positive House members and House Democrats, have mysteriously gone missing.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on May 28, 2020, 03:03:02 AM
So sorry for neglecting this thread; campaign work has consumed me.  That said, it appears that the PA State House GOP just shot themselves in the foot.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/05/pa-house-democrats-say-keeping-gop-colleagues-exposure-to-covid-19-private-is-unacceptable.html (https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/05/pa-house-democrats-say-keeping-gop-colleagues-exposure-to-covid-19-private-is-unacceptable.html)

The PA House GOP leadership allegedly did not inform House Democrats that multiple GOP House members, who continued coming to committee meetings with no protective PPE, had tested positive for coronavirus.  And now the video recordings of the meetings in question that featured close contact between unmasked COVID-positive House members and House Democrats, have mysteriously gone missing.

How can Turzai and his accomplices not being indicted for what they did?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: 😥 on May 28, 2020, 08:50:07 AM
Who has the best chance of winning Democratic primary for Auditor?

And also, ctherainbow, you did a great job! This is awesome!


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on May 28, 2020, 09:12:10 AM
Who has the best chance of winning Democratic primary for Auditor?

And also, ctherainbow, you did a great job! This is awesome!

Michael Lamb racked up a ton of endorsements statewide--he's Conor Lamb's uncle. If I had to guess who the "favorite" is, it's probably him.

I voted for Nina Ahmad, who seems to have a lot of support in the Philadelphia area but it's tough to gauge whether or not that will translate statewide.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: Continential on May 28, 2020, 09:23:33 AM
Who has the best chance of winning Democratic primary for Auditor?

And also, ctherainbow, you did a great job! This is awesome!

Michael Lamb racked up a ton of endorsements statewide--he's Conor Lamb's uncle. If I had to guess who the "favorite" is, it's probably him.

I voted for Nina Ahmad, who seems to have a lot of support in the Philadelphia area but it's tough to gauge whether or not that will translate statewide.
I'm guessing that Ahmad will win as the Eastern PA vote was divided by 3 different candidates, (Stack, Ahmad, Cozzone,)


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: Not Me, Us on May 28, 2020, 05:53:55 PM
I'm not sure who to support in the Auditor General primary. It doesn't seem like any major progressive groups have endorsed, and it doesn't seem like there's much policy difference between the candidates. Which one is the most progressive?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on May 29, 2020, 07:03:56 AM
Who has the best chance of winning Democratic primary for Auditor?

And also, ctherainbow, you did a great job! This is awesome!

Michael Lamb racked up a ton of endorsements statewide--he's Conor Lamb's uncle. If I had to guess who the "favorite" is, it's probably him.

I voted for Nina Ahmad, who seems to have a lot of support in the Philadelphia area but it's tough to gauge whether or not that will translate statewide.

Interestingly enough, the Philly establishment seems not to be too wild about Ahmed.  Lamb has gotten an unusual amount of support there for a Pittsburgh candidate, he even has the support of both Jim Kenney and his faction of the Philly Democratic machine.  Ahmed has some support in Philly and will obviously win it, but I'm not so sure she'll get even close to the margins she needs in east PA.  Plus, Christina Hartman seems to randomly be getting some establishment support in the Philly burbs and also got Rendell's endorsement (IDK how much pull he still has in Philly though).  I think Lamb is probably the pretty solid favorite here although obviously Ahmed could pull off a win and regional turnout patterns may be weird due to the COVID-19 chaos.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: They put it to a vote and they just kept lying on June 05, 2020, 07:36:25 AM
District 61:

(Montgomery)

Florence Friebel

Holy sh*t she was my social studies teacher my sophomore year of high school, I never saw that she was running lmao


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: Epaminondas on June 05, 2020, 08:12:37 AM
PA Primary results: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/02/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-primary-elections.html

5 state representatives have lost their primaries:
Ravenstahl (20), Puskaric (39), Donatucci (185), Roebuck (188) & Green (190)

And 2 state senators:
Farnese (1) & Leach (17)


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: Oryxslayer on June 06, 2020, 05:46:17 PM


As more mail ballots come in, it can be projected that the Leach goes down.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on June 06, 2020, 11:52:47 PM
Did the pro-Trump Democrat in Allegheny lose her primary?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: Co-Chair Bagel23 on June 07, 2020, 12:18:43 AM
Did the pro-Trump Democrat in Allegheny lose her primary?

()

Yes, that person is Kass.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on June 07, 2020, 12:43:22 AM
Did the pro-Trump Democrat in Allegheny lose her primary?

()

Yes, that person is Kass.

Wow, I'm glad that it's such a landslide loss. It's pretty embarrassing that the Allegheny Democratic Party actually endorsed her.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: Zaybay on June 07, 2020, 12:44:06 AM
Ahmad has taken the lead.

()


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: GlobeSoc on June 07, 2020, 12:48:13 AM
how did progressives and/or DSA do on June 2nd?


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: Zaybay on June 07, 2020, 12:49:45 AM
how did progressives and/or DSA do on June 2nd?

Very well. Focusing specifically on PA, the DSA ousted a state senator, and a couple other Progressive challengers won here and there.

Check out the New Mexico Progressive Thread to see the coup de grace of June 2nd.


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on March 18, 2021, 11:44:44 PM
Apologies for borderline necroing this thread, but I've finally wrapped up all the loose ends from last cycle, and am ready to do a postmortem of the 2020 PA Elections.

Summary:  The PA Dems had a disastrous night, with the only high-profile bright spot being Josh Shapiro's overperformance of the entire statewide ticket including Biden, confirming him as the (barring any unforeseen items)clear best hope for PA Dems to retain the governorship next year.  The GOP flipped 2/3 of the statewide row office seats, the State Senate was a wash(almost became Dem -1 if Brewster hadn't squeaked out a win), and Dems lost 3 seats in the State House, including a mortifying loss for the House Dems Minority Leader, racking up a massive deficit of statewide combined votes versus the GOP House candidates.

Let's jump into the numbers!


Federal:

President/VP:

I'm only mentioning this race perfunctorily, as it's been beaten to death long ago, but I will note that the media's Election Week narrative of "Atlanta and Philadelphia saving the rest of the country from Trump"(I heard this several times a day for weeks)... may be true for Atlanta, but Biden actually lost ground in Philly from 2016, so I'm not seeing the same Great Savior Philadelphia that many in the media did.

My Rating:  Tossup
Result:  D+1.17 (Dem Flip)

Joe Biden/Kamala Harris:  3,458,229 / 50.01%
Donald Trump/Mike Pence(I):  3,377,674 / 48.84%
Jo Jorgenson/Spike Cohen:  79,380 / 1.15%


Seat Change:  

D Gain: President/VP

Partisan Change:  

D+1/R-1 (1R-->1D)

Ratings Result:  

(1 Tossup)

Competitiveness Index:

President/VP: +1.17



Statewide:

Attorney General:


Josh Shapiro is a bit of a hero right now amongst the establishment portion of the PA Dems, and is seen as the prohibitive frontrunner for Governor in 2022.  Not only did he outperform Biden's margins, he also received more raw votes than Biden, despite the presence of a Green on the Attorney General ballot, which Biden did not have to contend with.  He has yet to announce for Governor, perhaps waiting until the pandemic eases further and reduces electoral animosity against PA's top executive position.

My Rating:  Lean D
Result:  D+4.52 (Dem Hold)

Josh Shapiro(I):  3,461,472 / 50.85%
Heather Heidelbaugh:  3,153,831 / 46.33%
Daniel Wassmer:  120,489 / 1.77%
Richard Weiss:  70,804 / 1.04%


Auditor General:

Poor Nina Ahmad.  A combination of lackluster support from the state party, DeFoor's overperformance in Philly+outright winning Dauphin County, and a last name that did her no favors in rural PA, made her the most underperforming statewide candidate of the night for the PA Dems, despite this race also featuring the best-performing statewide Libertarian of the night.  During her campaign, she also came off as running for a legislative position, not for Auditor.  There are rumblings that she is extremely pissed at the PA Dems and may challenge for leadership in upcoming party elections.

My Rating:  Tilt D
Result:  R+3.09 (GOP Pickup)

Timothy DeFoor:  3,338,009 / 49.44%
Nina Ahmad:  3,129,131 / 46.35%
Jennifer Moore:  205,929 / 3.05%
Olivia Faison:  78,588 / 1.16%


State Treasurer:

This race was the biggest disappointment for me and most PA Dems.  Relatively well-liked Democratic incumbent Joe Torsella sleepwalked through the election season, and was edged out by Stacy Garrity in the closest statewide margin of the night.

My Rating:  Lean D
Result:  R+0.77 (GOP Flip)

Stacy Garrity:  3,291,877 / 48.68%
Joe Torsella(I):  3,239,331 / 47.91%
Joe Soloski:  148,614 / 2.20%
Timothy Runkle:  81,984 / 1.21%


Seat Change:  

D Hold: Attorney General
R Gain: Auditor General, Treasurer

Partisan Change:  

D-2/R+2 (3D-->1D/2R)

Ratings Result:  

1/3

Competitiveness Index:

State Treasurer: +0.77
Auditor General: +3.09
Attorney General: +4.52



State Senate:

District 1:

Progressive challenger Nikil Saval knocked out incumbent Larry Farnese in the primary, then cruised to election unopposed in this Philadelphia district.

My Rating:  Strong D
Result:  D+100 (D Hold)

Nikil Saval:  124,514 / 100%


District 3:

Philadelphia

My Rating:  Strong D
Result:  D+100 (D Hold)

Sharif Street(I):  90,323 / 100%


District 5:

Philadelphia

My Rating:  Strong D
Result:  D+100 (D Hold)

John Sabatina Jr(I):  69,514 / 100%


District 7:

Montgomery/Philadelphia

My Rating: Strong D
Result:  D+100 (D Hold)

Vincent Hughes(I):  115,760 / 100%


District 9:

About the only bright spot of the evening for Senate Dems was John Kane's ouster of GOP incumbent Tom Killion in this Chester/Delaware district.

My Rating: Tilt D
Result:  D+3.9 (D Flip)

John Kane:  80,198 / 51.95%
Tom Killion(I):  74,173 / 48.05%


District 11:

Berks

My Rating:  Strong D
Result:  D+16.72 (D Hold)

Judy Schwank(I):  66,735 / 58.36%
Annette Baker:  47,624 / 41.64%


District 13:

Lancaster

My Rating:  Lean R
Result:  R+11.26 (R Hold)

Scott Martin(I):  73,371 / 55.63%
Janet Diaz:  58,524 / 44.37%


District 15:

This Dauphin/Perry district was a pickup opportunity for Dems, but they blew it.  With two Capitol Area losses under his belt now, it's hard to see George Scott running a third time and winning.

My Rating:  Tossup
Result:  R+3.26 (R Hold)

John DiSanto(I):  71,119 / 51.63%
George Scott:  66,632 / 48.37%


District 17:

Embattled incumbent Dem Daylin Leach went down in the primary, but Amanda Cappelletti, who defeated him, held this Delaware/Montgomery seat for Dems with a whopping 32 point victory.

My Rating:  Likely D
Result:  D+31.82 (D Hold)

Amanda Cappelletti:  105,840 / 65.91%
Ellen Fisher:  54,750 / 34.09%


District 19:

Carolyn Comitta easily defeated Kevin Runey to replace retiring Andy Dinniman in this Chester seat.

My Rating:  Likely D
Result:  D+14.96 (D Hold)

Carolyn Comitta:  88,996 / 57.48%
Kevin Runey:  65,836 / 42.52%


District 21:

Butler/Clarion/Forest/Venango/Warren

My Rating:  Strong R
Result:  R+41.7 (R Hold)

Scott Hutchinson(I):  98,627 / 70.85%
Shelbie Stromeyer:  40,570 / 29.15%


District 23:

Bradford/Lycoming/Sullivan/Susquehanna/Union

My Rating:  Strong R
Result:  R+46.08 (R Hold)

Gene Yaw(I):  87,037 / 73.04%
Jackie Baker:  32,131 / 26.96%


District 25:

Cris Dush defeated Margie Brown to replace retiring top Senate GOP Senator Joe Scarnati in this Cameron/Clearfield/Clinton/Elk/Jefferson/McKean/Potter/Tioga district.

My Rating:  Strong R
Result:  R+48.82 (R Hold)

Cris Dush:  88,994 / 74.41%
Margie Brown:  30,608 / 25.59%


District 27:

Columbia/Luzerne/Montour/Northumberland/Snyder

My Rating:  Strong R
Result:  R+44.48 (R Hold)

John Gordner(I):  83,629 / 72.24%
Michelle Siegel:  32,135 / 27.76%


District 29:

Berks/Schuylkill

My Rating:  Strong R
Result:  R+100 (R Hold)

Dave Argall(I):  106,205 / 100%


District 31:

Cumberland/York

My Rating:  Strong R
Result:  R+21.04 (R Hold)

Mike Regan(I):  95,228 / 60.52%
Shanna Danielson:  62,123 / 39.48%


District 33:

Adams/Cumberland/Franklin/York

My Rating:  Strong R
Result:  R+37.28 (R Hold)

Doug Mastriano(I):  96,097 / 68.64%
Richard Sterner:  43,914 / 31.36%


District 35:

While a relatively safe race for the GOP, this district deserves a mention for just how staggeringly badly Shaun Dougherty did.  While we've known that the small exurban manufacturing cities like Johnstown were swinging hard Republican, this district was controlled by Dems as recently as 2016.  In 2020, it became the Dems second worst Senate performance of the races they contested, beaten only by the EXTREMELY rural 25th, and the uncontested 29th.  This Bedford/Cambria/Clearfield district is the harshest reflection of PA Dems losses in non urban/suburban PA.

My Rating:  Likely R
Result:  R+47.28 (R Hold)

Wayne Langerholc(I):  91,595 / 73.64%
Shaun Dougherty: 32,794 / 26.36%


District 37:

"Could easily flip" was my prediction, and I should have been even less bullish on Pam Iovino's chances of holding this seat, because she went down in flames.  This loss negated the Dems' gain in the southeastern suburbs, and gave the PA GOP a foothold back into Allegheny County on the Senatorial level.

My Rating:  Tilt D
Result:  R+4.22 (R Flip)

Devlin Robinson:  92,027 / 52.11%
Pam Iovino(I):  84,582 / 47.89%


District 39:

Westmoreland

My Rating:  Likely R
Result:  R+35.16 (R Hold)

Kim Ward(I):  93,310 / 67.58%
Tay Waltenbaugh:  44,768 / 32.42%


District 41:

Armstrong/Butler/Indiana/Westmoreland

My Rating:  Strong R
Result:  R+45.56 (R Hold)

Joe Pittman(I):  92,542 / 72.78%
Anthony Deloreto:  34,610 / 27.22%


District 43:

Allegheny

My Rating:  Strong D
Result:  D+100 (D Hold)

Jay Costa Jr(I):  117,888 / 100%


District 45:

This Allegheny/Westmoreland district was almost a disaster for PA Dems, and though I had pegged it as the PA Senate GOP's second-best pickup opportunity, I didn't expect it to be THIS close to actually flipping.  It was also a bit of a disaster post-election, with the PA GOP refusing to seat Brewster until Ziccarelli's federal court cases contesting the state election failed to gain any traction.  These results also bear out Brewster's luck in not drawing opponents in recent cycles, and I expect the PA GOP to contest this seat(or a redrawn one that is similar geographically) fiercely in 2024.

My Rating:  Likely D
Result:  D+0.06 (D Hold)

James Brewster(I):  66,261 / 50.03%
Nicole Ziccarelli:  66,192 / 49.97%


District 47:

Beaver/Butler/Lawrence

My Rating:  Likely R
Result:  R+32.94 (R Hold)

Elder Vogel(I):  88,419 / 66.47%
Stephen Krizan:  44,595 / 33.53%


District 49:

Another major embarrassment for the PA Dems was this Erie district, which is by all accounts a swing district, yet challenger Slomski got crushed by an almost 20 point margin.  I imagine PA Dems will try to find a strong recruit for 2024, but we'll have to see if this seat continues to drift even further away from Dems, or if Laughlin had unique crossover appeal that doomed Slomski.  We might get to test this two years early, as there are initial signs that Laughlin may run for Governor next year.

My Rating:  Tossup
Result:  R+19.62 (R Hold)

Daniel Laughlin(I):  69,818 / 59.81%
Julie Slomski:  46,907 / 40.19%


Seat Change:  

D Hold: District 1, 3, 5, 7, 11, 17, 19, 43, 45
D Gain: District 9
R Gain: District 37
R Hold: District 13, 15, 21, 23, 25, 27, 29, 31, 33, 35, 39, 41, 47, 49

Partisan Change:  

D+0/R+0 (28R/1I/21D)-->28R/1I/21D)

Ratings Result:  

22/23 (+2 Tossups)

Competitiveness Index:

District 45: +0.06
District 15: +3.26
District 9: +3.9
District 37: +4.22
District 13: +11.26
District 19: +14.96
District 11: +16.72
District 49: +19.62
District 31: +21.04
District 17: +31.82
District 47: +32.94
District 39: +35.16
District 33: +37.28
District 21: +41.7
District 27: +44.48
District 41: +45.56
District 23: +46.08
District 35: +47.28
District 25: +48.82
District 1: +100
District 3: +100
District 5: +100
District 7: +100
District 29: +100
District 43: +100


Senate Composition Map:

(Flipped districts in lighter shades)

()


Title: Re: 2020 PA State Elections Megathread
Post by: ctherainbow on March 19, 2021, 02:16:42 AM
For the State House, I will not be(at least initially) listing uncontested races.

State House

District 3:

Erie

My Rating:  Strong D
Result:  D+22.74 (D Hold)

Ryan Bizzarro(I): 22,219 / 61.37%
Greg Hayes:  13,985 / 38.63%


District 5:

Berks

My Rating:  Likely R
Result:  R+39.46 (R Hold)

Barry Jozwiak(I):  23,291 / 69.73%
Graham Gonzales:  10,112 / 30.27%


District 6:

Crawford/Erie

My Rating:  Strong R
Result:  R+30.7 (R Hold)

Bradley Roae(I):  21,285 / 65.35%
Matthew Ferrence:  11,286 / 34.65%


District 7:

This was an uncontested Mercer County district, but I feel it deserves a special mention, as incumbent Mark Longietti managed to capture both the Democratic and Republican nominations.

My Rating:  Strong D
Result:  D+100 (D Hold)

Mark Longietti(I):  28,297 / 100%


District 8:

Butler/Mercer

My Rating:  Strong R
Result:  R+50.3 (R Hold)

Timothy Bonner:  23,838 / 75.15%
Phillip Heasley:  7,883 / 24.85%


District 9:

Lawrence

My Rating:  Lean D
Result:  D+10.45 (D Hold)

Christopher Sainato(I): 15,180 / 50.35%
Carol Ryan:  12,030 / 39.9%
Darryl Audia:  2,940 / 9.75%


District 10:

Beaver/Butler/Lawrence

My Rating:  Lean R
Result:  R+17.07 (R Hold)

Aaron Bernstine(I):  15,009 / 51.5%
Kolbe Cole:  10,032 / 34.43%
Johnathan Peffer:  4,100 / 14.07%