Talk Elections

What do you think, how many women will have been in the Oval Office by the midst of this century?

I think there are going to be at least two, voted three. The 2020s will almost definitely see a female president. Either Kamala Harris or Liz Warren in 2021, or either Kamala Harris (as Joe Biden's running mate) or Gretchen Whitmer in 2025, at latest in 2029.

I'd expect one Republican female president in the 2030s. Maybe there is going to one more of either party in the 2030s or 2040s. My prediction, which is only pure speculation, is that this woman will succeed to office from the vice presidency. (Random note: Considering there was at least one vice president succeeding to the presidency each two decades from 1841 to 1974, the next presidential succession is long overdue already.)

Thoughts?

1-Kamala Harris 2021

1

This will include seven presidential elections (2024, 2028, 2032, 2036, 2040, 2044, 2048.)

There's been a recent tendency for Presidents to serve two full terms, but odds are something weird will happen at some point, and there may be an older President who doesn't seek reelection, so we're probably looking at 4-5 Presidents.

I'd guess 1-2 will be women. There seems to be about a 30 percent chance that 2020 will see the election of a Democratic woman (Harris, Warren, slight chance of Klobuchar) and if it's Biden, his running mate is almost certainly a woman, so she'd be the favorite in '24.

The Republican bench on women is low, given the number in the House, although Nikki Haley is a top contender.

Probably 2. I think Harris or Warren will be the next President so that's one already.

0.

Ancient patriarchal gender identities will not be recognized in 2050.

I'll say 1. It seems like this is bound to happen sooner rather than later.

Following from Mister Mets' argument, there will be 4-5 presidents during that time period (probably closer to 4).

Let's take the chances of a female president as 50%. That means that the median would be of 2 female presidents and that there is a 12.5% chance of no female presidents (and also a 12.5% chance of all presidents after Trump being women)

In practice the chances are probably below perfect 50-50 odds so I could also see an argument for only 1, but 2 is probably still the most likely scenario.

Queen Tulsi, Queen Blackburn, Queen Haley, Queen Noem.

Probably 2, at most 3. Harris in the 2020s, Stefanik in the 2030s, & maybe Ocasio-Cortez in the 2040s.

2

Two it is.

2

3. Harris in 2020s, Haley in 2030s, and Ocasio-Cortez in 2040s

2. Harris in the 2020s and a GOPer in 2030s or 2040s.

4

There'll be 8 elections between now and then. Assuming all two term presidents, that means 4 new presidents by 2050. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say 2. If things keep going the way people say they are, it's hard for me to see the Democrats putting a man on the top of the ticket beyond 2020, even a minority in race or sexuality.

There's really no way to know this, but I think its pretty likely the answer is "none".

Assume Trump defeats Joe Biden in 2020.  Progressives are livid, and the backlash is enough to nominate AOC in 2024 but she fails spectacularly to a male Republican nominee (i.e., Pence, DeSantis, Pompeo, etc.).  Moderate Dems come back in 2028 by nominating Gavin Newsom or Hakeem Jeffries and defeating the Republican incumbent, and the Dem gets a second term in 2032. 

We're now to 2036 without a female president.  Its not hard to see Republicans putting up another White guy who is able to beat the Democratic nominee due to fatigue after Newsom/Jeffries' two terms.  Say the economy is good and he gets reelected in 2040.  Now we're to 2045 with no female POTUS. 

I think we're coming close to the break-even point in general elections: where long-term outcomes in these contests will be reflective of gender (i.e. if a man and a woman are the two nominees, there is no handicap in who can win; female candidates have notably underperformed in federal contests by 1-2 points in the modern era). Of course, small sample sizes and all that. I wouldn't be surprised if we had 2 female Presidents (with 1 being a one-termer; women will likely continue to be held to a higher standard).

However, the GOP nominating a woman is practically out of the question right now, so maybe the chances are only like 1 in 4 for each future election based on today's trends. So seeing just 1 prior to 2050 is perfectly possible as well.

For us to get 2 female Presidents, we'd most likely need to see a strong trend of the GOP nominating men and the Democrats nominating women (not impossible).

Literally none of these women will ever be President.

Anyway, my guess would be 2 as well. probably some Republican who isn't relevant right now + AOC.

Please grip a basic understanding of current events and politics then return to the site.

Dems: Warren (2021-2029) & AOC (2041-2050)
GOP: none

The further we get from the present, the more likely the Presidents, male or female, will be people we don't currently recognize, or wouldn't consider serious contenders for the office.

Until about five years before the 2008 presidential election, Barack Obama was a state senator with an interesting background.

About seven years before the 2000 presidential election, George W Bush was a failed congressional candidate whose dad served one term in the White House running against a favored incumbent.

Twelve years before the 1992 presidential election, Bill Clinton was defeated for reelection as Governor of a small state.

Trump's been consistently seen as a fringe political figure.

Ten years before the 2020 presidential election, Elizabeth Warren was an academic taken out of the running for being in charge of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau because of potential blowback.

We can't expect the nomination of a particular individual, let alone whether they'll win the final race.