Talk Elections

https://twitter.com/MikeDelMoro/status/1148544895835156480
Safe R > Safe R

Hopefully, she wins

Dems can't do much better than her here, so it's good they got a nice recruit. But this race is Safe R, and will only go Democratic in the 1% scenario Trump sits on his ass while the economy goes off a cliff in September and McConnell is caught napping. Hell, that might not even be enough: if Bevin ends up winning than we know that Kentucky is too far gone for even a 2008 scenario to produce a democratic victory.

Her mistake in 2018 was not going after her opponent aggressively enough. If she does that again, she would be annihilated.

Her odds of winning are low, but then again, back when Democrats had a lock on southern senate seats, they had little chance of losing.

Titanium R. If she couldn’t win the second most Democratic district in KY, then she has no shot winning statewide.

You know, I actually think she might have a chance.



Of doing better than Jim Gray did in 2016. Actually winning? pffffttttt

Could she perform better than ALG? Maybe. The race is still Safe R.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1148561454037184512?s=19

I mean, he ain't wrong.

Safe R, nothing to see here.

If Bevin loses though, Democrats will think "we can beat McConnell!" and pour millions into this race.

The real question is whether McGrath wins Elliot County. I think she does.

Ugh, in that case I don't know what to hope for in KY-GOV 2019. But this race is still Safe R, even if McGrath is probably one of the strongest candidates the Democrats could have asked for.

McConnell is only up 8 points in a Likely R state, against Jim Gray, that's not a landslide.

The real question is if KentuckyWildman will volunteer for McGrath.

Likely R. McConnell is too powerful, but he won't be in power forever.

Well yeah, eventually he'll die.

The economy went of on q cliff in 2008 and cocaine mitch still won by 5 points.

I’m surprised that he is not moving the race to toss-up like he did for TN and NJ last year

But even when he will be dead, his ghost will continue to rule the Senate

Adkin would have been better from a D perspective

Safe R

The Miami Dolphins also have a chance of winning the super bowl

I have no idea what that means

To blue avatars, waves dont happen in a yr prior to an election. Trump is in the Mitt Romney range, and can lose by a landslide. This seat is wave insurance, CO, AZ, AL and ME are tier 1

Teresa Tomlinson and Cal Cunningham could use the money instead of her but Resistance Twitter is about to blow their load all over this race.

Mcconnell can lose if Kentucky voters learn to read by election day and become aware of his corrupt record. The voters of Kentucky voted for Trump by overwhelming margins in their desire to drain the swamp. Once they are made aware of McConnell's corrupt record...he is done.

You know what...the more I read about McGrath and her campaign message, the more I get the feeling that I'm not even sure I know what she stands for. It's not enough to just say "I'm not ______", so I now think that if McGrath were to continue down her current path, she could end up just like McConnell's previous opponent in terms of the final election margin.

Lol. She ain’t gonna lose because people don’t know what she stands for. She’s gonna lose because she’s a Democrat in Kentucky.

I'm gonna totally grift for McGrath shares on predict it. Then buy cocaine mitch shares at a lower value. Anyone want to help me scam these donors and make em buy McGrath shares once it launches? All you need to do is tell em look Kentucky Democrat advantage registration and mitch McConnell low approval.

I also endorse  Beshear. If he somehow wins  Democrat donors will believe cocaine mitch is beatable.

Either McGrath is a narcissistic idiot or she’s a narcissistic grifter who knows she’s gonna be rolling in the campaign cash of delusional liberals

As I've said before, this race is unwinnable with any Democrat, so it doesn't really matter how she campaigns or if she stands for anything. if I was a donor or DNC member, I would not allocate any resources whatsoever to this race.

Will this have any effect on down-ballot races?

McGrath is pivoting slightly to the right:

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/09/amy-mcgrath-seeks-makeover-pro-trump-democrat/1680960001/ (https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/09/amy-mcgrath-seeks-makeover-pro-trump-democrat/1680960001/)

If she couldn't win in a seat well to the left of the state in a historically Democratic year what makes her think she can win statewide with Trump at the top of the ticket?

No harm in trying. Longshot races can prove to be very consequential (just look at Beto)

That money from idiot donors bruh. Just write off all your expenses/bar tabs to the campaign and life is great

She'll definitely pull donations from resistance idiots that could go to actual competitive races in North Carolina and Colorado

Colorado probably won't be competitive.

The denocrat will most likely win, but I'm guessing the race will still be within 5 pts

Yeah, Strong Moderate Incumbent^TM Cory Gardner would obliterate Jesus himself if he was the Democratic candidate.

Please. Jim Gray did amazing. There's a reason him and Kander are the only Democrats that ran ahead of Hillary Clinton.

McGrath running ahead of ALG seems like the best benchmark.

Or job-seeking in a future Cabinet. I have little doubt she'd be a great Sec. of Defense or Sec. of Vets Affairs to a Harris administration.

TURTLE

MAN

BAD

A very strong announcement video. Hope she can ditch Mitch, but I doubt it's happening. Still safe Republican.

Best case is she runs a strong campaign and helps build up Kentucky Democrats' campaign infrastructure statewide.  Even if she doesn't win, a good campaign could have beneficial results down-ballot both next year and into the future.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1148659663715520512?s=19

Nate, No! Don't give them false hope!

YES NATE ALUMINUM GIVE ME THAT DEM CASH.

I think Scott Taylor has a shot against Mark Warner. Probably this race might be a little "closer".

Nate Silver thinks McGrath has a shot because of approval ratings and his status as a party leader. This is his job and he still hasn't learned from past elections.

Nate Silver is great at models and numbers but is Bill Kristol level terrible as a pundit

The fact that Phil Bredesen, a guy with 60% favorables for most of the 2018 cycle, lost by double digits in a state that is a little friendlier to Dems than KY is in a D+9 year isn't teaching these people a lesson is beyond me. Screw it, I might go drop a ton of money on McConnell now too on PredictIt. So much for Democrats being more logical and reasonable when they still think beating McConnell is possible, lol.

I also think McGrath has a chance, let's wait until after Nov, 2019, when the KY-Gov contest is over, before we render anymore judgements.

2012 blue wave didnt happen 1 yr prior to the election. McConnell had a close election,  in 2008, against Lunsford in an election yr. 2014, was a midterm and ALG made a gaffe and Walsh had plagerism, which natl the election😃

You know what else happened in 2008? Max Baucus got 3/4 of the vote and swept every county and Dems held about a dozen R+20 districts. Things have changed just a little there bud

Give him a break; he's not very smart.

Can't wait for the ****libs to burn money away by donating to her and Jaime Harrison while MJ Hegar and whatever B-listers in Iowa/NC struggle to fundraise.

What are you talking about, Democrats can win KY with Harris/Ryan as ticket, with Ryan's megacoattails from OH

I don't agree that this race is not winnable, but Amy McGrath isn't gonna win it if she couldn't manage in KY6 during a wave year. Plus this flip-flopping is a time-tested strategy to turn off voters. I don't see a path for her specifically.

What is Matt Jones doing? He would make this race far more competitive.

TBH Mcgrath will probably win Ky 06 against Mitch.

To those complaining that the Dems will waste money here, I think she will ends up with the opposite problem - barely any money at all and cannot run a legitimate campaign. The dem base is educated and cares about winning, and is not afraid to cruelly throw candidates under the bus. Their donations are political investments after all. When the NYT found candidates losing by significant margins in a single poll, they lost their shine. I am reminded of TX23, TX31, and MN08 - all MOE races in the end, but all abandoned by the activist base first and then the donors when one data point came up not in their favor.

Lol no, these are the same people who lit their money on fire for O'Rourke and Heitkamp

ND and TN were a waste of money, but was TX? Yeah it was excessive, but O’Rourke came closer to winning than 3 of the 4 Democratic Senators that lost did. And he gave us a glimpse as to how a Democrat can win statewide sometime in the next decade when there previously wasn’t a template to use. Literally just add five points to Beto’s margins in the cities and suburbs and that’s a blue Texas. And his downballot coattails were huge in the legislature and at the county level.

Yes, but the countless millions raised went well beyond the point of diminishing returns

TX is an untapped gold mine of mobilizable voters. Money coming in there helps build an actual infrastructure. SC has very limited potential, but demographics are not on our side. Why money is going to go to Kentucky is beyond me.


This is the same party whose equivalent to the Koch Brothers is in the middle of a 9-figure, self-serving virtue signaling campaign and gave Jaime Harrison $1.5 million in a month because Lindsey Graham is a sycophant. Their financial priorities are heavily skewed.

McConnell needs to be defeated after what he sais about slavery reparations. McGrath isnt ALG. He exacerbated the racial tensions,  and Biden's segregationist additude, wasnt enough. McConnell exacerbated the racial tensions like Reverand Wright did, color KY, Atlas red or secular blue. Just like comment only helps Beshear,  not Bevin

You’re right. ALG actually won an election statewide in KY before she ran against McConnell (with over 60% of the vote). The same can’t be said of McGrath

I was referring to the gaffe, when she said that she voted for Hilary, not Obama.

If Cornyn or McConnell goes down, I will be satisfied, they both voted for Alito and Kavanaugh, ones that never take from to time some Dem policies like Roberts have done

People are really about to waste millions on a rural, low educated, 90 percent white state while GA and TX sit on a treasure trove of affluent suburban white women, white progressives, Black, Asian, and Latino voters.

K.

Safe R -> Safe R

Probably McGrath is a good fir for the state and she has certainly a good announcement video, but past elections in KY have lectured us that this is not winnable. I can tell you what will happen: Polls up to Oct 2020 will remain within single digits and parts of Atlas + Nate Silver will tell us how McConnell is vulnerable. During the last week, he'll expand his polling lead and on election day, he wins 59-39%.

Better put ressources into ME, NC, TX, GA and MT (with Bullock). CO is already lean/likely D.

He is losing in the polls to McGrath, what I said was righr, he will lose

It's good to have a warm body in case Cocaine Mitch is caught diddling underage boys, but otherwise this is safe R.

Yeah but VA would vote Trump because Youngstown-Ryan is a poor fit for Fairfax

Safe R, while McGrath probably does better than the Democratic presidential nominee, I can't see her overperforming by the tremendous amount needed to actually win the race, especially since that kind of split-ticket voting doesn't happen any more.

https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1148917914151600130

This is actually an impressive number.

And I guess that 98% of this amount comes from outstate

The good thing is that with these crazy numbers neither Adkins nor Gray will jump in the race 

Atlas consensus here is so dumb and tiresome. Yes, it's an uphill race, but the whole map is uphill! Because of the nature of the map, you have to make a serious effort to pick up seats in Montana, and Texas, and Kansas, all of which are going to be extraordinarily difficult. At least in this one you've got a good candidate who is fundraising well and will run a competitive election — absolute malpractice to write it off as safe R now.

The problem for Democrats is that this race won't be competitive and will siphon money from left-wing idiots that could go to actual races

That's not how donors work. Her average donation is something like $36, so mostly small donors. This isn't money that can be transferred to Georgia or North Carolina — it's people giving to a candidate (or, against a candidate) who they feel strongly about, in a way that they don't feel compelled to donate to random b-listers in Montana

The people over at DailyKos Elections are evenly stupidly buying into the idea that contesting KY is a good idea. So much for Democrats being more rational and logical than Republicans

McGrath naised 2 M her first day she announced

That doesn’t make them any less gullible or this any less of a scam. If anything it shows how easy it is to scam people in America nowadays by playing off people’s emotions

Goes to show that even the most informed and dedicated activists can be swindled. Had one on my feed saying they will expand the electorate in Kentucky. Like.... expand to who? LOL. Other poor white folk who have racial resentment? Kentucky is a waste of time but go off.

If she has little chance of winning, at least keeping McConnell tied down by giving him a race has some value.

https://www.nbcnews.com/card/mcgrath-raises-record-2-5-million-first-day-senate-campaign-n1028121?cid=sm_npd_ms_tw_ma
2.5 million.
Another female military vet could use that more.(Hegar) and could actually win but turtle man bad wins. Anyway what I have to do is find out these donors and get them on predict it when it launches so I can make that sweet $$$$

I don't get the "she's stealing money from other candidates" argument. It is clear there is a ton of energy out there right now, there is more than enough energy and money for the democrats to compete everywhere they want to. This was shown in 2018 where money flooded basically every race that was seriously contested. I wouldn't worry too much about her "stealing races". There is nearly zero harm in trying to win Kentucky because if by some miracle McConnell happens to lose, this forum would be in celebration for months.

McGrath isnt stealing votes from other candidates, votes are giving her the money, due to fact, she is fundraisering at the same time Steve Beshear is, and thats why I would rank this race over TX, unless Chris Bell gets the nomination😁

My God this plan is brilliant! It's a good thing absolutely no one else has thought of it, that PredictIt users are exactly the same as the sort of people that donate to opponents of hated incumbents and tend to not be far more analytical than emotional in their bets AND that they're easily swayed by the sort of things you want to bring up, that such donors are blowing big amounts instead of making small donations and would be equally willing to make big bets on a betting site, and that PredictIt doesn't heavily eat into the winnings of contracts above 80 cents with all their fees thus making a simple savings account or bond often a better deal. I mean if any one of those things were true this absolute stroke of genius probably wouldn't work.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3608/Will-Dean-Heller-be-re-elected-to-the-US-Senate-in-Nevada-in-2018

For people who never used PredictIt:

There's a limit of $850 per market. If you got McConnell shares at 85 cents a share (and no spamming amateur #analysis won't get it lower), you'd be able to buy 1000 shares. That's a winning of $150...minus the 10% fee. So actually $135. Add that to the $850 and you get $985...subject to a 5% withdrawal fee. You'd get $935.75 out. An $85.75 profit.

If you use a credit card you'll pay all that in interest and if you actually have $850 laying around you can afford to have tied up that long there's many better investments you could make. You could also make more money by working part time at McDonald's for a week.

So you're going to set up a polling company that'll release a bunch of bad polls right before the election showing McConnell down? Because that's the only way you'd replicate that happening.

Yes, polling KY-SEN will be going on at the same time they poll KY-GOV, all year long, until Nov, 2019, there will be polling from the two sources.

Honestly, during her 2014 Senate Run, Alison Grimes should have lied and claimed that she voted for Romney in 2012 whenever asked about it. If she did, then the race would have likely ended up within 5 points, and could have gone either way.

No one accused Kentuckians of being smart, but they’re also not that dumb

https://mobile.twitter.com/HolmesJosh/status/1149075028601954304

This woman really isn't ready for prime-time

McGrath may not be as skilled at this as we all thought:

https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1149080603956056069

Tapper: You compared Trump's election to 9/11. Can you explain that?

McGrath: Um, well, I only meant that, uh, they were both... very surprising

Lmao this woman is a joke.

I am glad I didnt jump on bandwagon and donate to her campaign

McGrath is better off carpetbagging somewhere else I still don't get why she moved from MD to KY... She lived in Annapolis and could've just jumped over to the MD-6 which was open at the time but here we are with her trying to appeal to Trump voters in a deep red state.

I told y’all.... waste of time, energy, and resources

Which is sad because she is so talented which such a great backstory but wasted in Kentucky. She had VA-10 and MD-6 to choose from to run for in 2018 and chose KY-6.

Safe R regardless, KY Dems may as well recruit Rocky Adkins to run against McConnell

I mean its been pointed out that McGrath is an inferior candidate to ALG in every metric, yet left wing idiots still pumped money into her campaign

What a trainwreck.

If DSCC throws a single dollar at this race, God help us

How can you be this bad at politics?

I mean, she did lose a race she was given a real shot in. Not too long ago that was the kiss of death. But it's a testament to how empty the Democratic bench has gotten outside of blue states that no one bats an eye at losers getting promoted to a higher race anymore, and that includes her, Beto, and MJ. Or mayors like Castro or Pete skipping statewide altogether....

This money should be spent on wave insurance seats in Maine, Montana, and Texas.  Hell, Jaime Harrison in South Carolina would be a better investment! 

She should have run for KY-06 again.

Safe R. I guess somebody had to try and challenge McConnell though. It's better than letting him go unchallenged. She would have lost to Barr again too, so why not run here instead? Any money spent here is undeniably better spent elsewhere though.

Cornyn isnt losing to Hegar, he will lose to C Bell. We need Franken to run in Iowa against Ernst

The best thing she could do is raise as much money as possible and direct it all to the DSCC.

She is making Eric Swalwell's campaign look like it was the campaign of the century

Hope Matt Jones jumps in. Need someone who will go negative

Alaska and Kansas would be better investments than this tbh.

We can’t make *any* judgments about this race until Fancy Feast happens

I want her to defeat Mitch a lot - but, she's really cringeworthy as a campaigner.

To be honest, I'm not sure if Gray had a shot, and I originally thought McGrath was the better candidate against Barr. The problem is that everyone underestimate that KY-6 was too far gone.

Hegar would have won had she gotten proper financial support. Ossoff lost, but without Ossoff's infrastructure there's no McBath (who's a dramatically better candidate). Not only are we wasting money on a hopeless race while Generic North Carolina Candidate and Generic Georgia Candidate starve, we're wasting it on ALG 2.0.

Oh right. At least ALG won statewide before.

She's going to be running ads like these while McConnell tears her to shreds.

https://twitter.com/AmyMcGrathKY/status/1044257435882606595

there's a good chance that McConnell's margin is closer to his 2002 race at this point, probably the worst first 48 hours for a hyped senate recruit in recent memory

Franken running in Iowa?  What on God's green earth are you talking about?

uasdguhiohadfsbujdsfdhsssssssssssssssssssssss

what the CHRIIIIIIIIIIIIIIST

Remember folks, supposedly educated and well-informed people were touting her candidacy on here and on DKE just today and yesterday and arguing that this candidacy wasn't in fact a scam. Well McGraft basically robbed people of $2.5 million and counting.

She's gonna be lucky to break 40% of the vote.

ALG only got 41%, after all.

After what McGrath said, Jim Gray should immediately jump into race and try to beat her, or Beshear will lose. Bredesen and Strickland and Bayh made conservative positions and lost the elections, by not taking progressive stances

Easily one of the worst and most overrated Democrats out there, so I’m definitely looking foward to McConnell annihilating her:

https://twitter.com/Team_Mitch/status/1148554996037890048

Solid thinks this is Lean D, seriously,  she didnt learn from Bredesen, who said the samething and lost. Safe R and KY-Gov

You repeatedly said McConnell might lose? And Beshear is likely to win.

...is this like the fastest campaign blunder ever?

The Democratic leadership couldn't get Bullock or Hickenlooper to run and instead are focusing recruitment attention and money on this fool's gold seat. Fell into the same trap in 2014.

What a joke of an opposition party on the Senate level.

On one hand it is unfortunate that McGrath seems to be a worse candidate than expected but otoh even if she were a perfect candidate this race would still be Safe R.

Adkins should run and beat her in the primary just to flex on Twitter Dems.

Had Jim Gray won the primary, he would have won in KY-06.

Also, I'd support Matt Jones and not Rocky Adkins in the primary.

Not Al Franken lol. There's a retired Navy Admiral named Michael Franken who's apparently considering a bid.

Jesus Christ she's so bad at this.

Usually agree with most things you say; but honestly what would you do differently as Schumer & co?

Like the Senate is a god awful place to work; both Bullock and Hickenlooper are ex governors in their 60s (so are hardly going to be lifers) who want the ego trip of running for President.

What can Schumer do to get them to run?  People seem to forget how egotistical, stubborn and tin eared a lot of politicians are- it's not like there's just a lever for Schumer to pull.

I think we tend to obsess slightly over recruiting; Strickland, Bredesen, Bayh, McSally, and lots of others were seen as great recruits where as people Jacky Rosen were at the bottom of Harry Reid's list to run

Damn, that's devastating and it's only the first ad.

Yarmuth and other local Dems are on record as wanting a primary, though not endorsing someone else. Jones sounds more interested than he initially did, and Adkins is also being courted. National Dems aren't interested in Jones though. (https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/11/amy-mcgrath-stumbles-spark-call-democratic-primary-challengers/1702660001/)

I really love this quote : ''Yarmuth said it is a waste of time for Kentucky Democrats to court Trump voters, who delivered the president a 30 percentage point victory in 2016. He said the better pathway to defeating McConnell is running up huge margins in urban centers, such as his district of Louisville, and other Democratic strongholds such as Lexington.''

This strategy worked really well for Jim Gray.

Anyway, I think Rocky Adkins would have at least given McConnell a scare, but McGrath is going to do worse than ALG and Gray.

Worse than ALG is a pretty hard thing to fathom.

A Democrat getting less than 40% in KY is quite easy to fathom. Even against McConnell. And McGrath hardly inspires confidence.

Her campaigns off to a rocky start but don't count her off yet she nearly won a trump +10 district last year. I think Adkins is our best shot at the seat but McGrath isn't DOA just yet though this race is almost safe r

If anything that bolsters the argument against her. If she couldn’t win the second Dem friendliest  seat in KY last year what the hell makes people think she has any shot statewide

Actually Trump +16

Yeah that's still a double digit loss in this state. LOL.

Whew! Imagine donating all of your cold, hard cash to this race hoping to flip the Senate with a dud candidate and ignoring states that have sprawling metros with hordes of non-white people and white progressives eager to be mobilized and flip their respective states.

Yeah I'd rather even spend on GA than this mess.

Adkins would have the best shot, but he still most likely loses by double digits. at least he'd win back some ancestral Democrats and maybe a handful of moderate Republicans who don't like McConnell but won't vote for a "progressive" Democrat.

Hey, at least we would get to feel good that we will win Elliot county by a massive margin.

So if she overperforms by as much as she did in the 6th district she'll only lose by 17.

This but for real

Dems are Spending  $$ on AK and KS, they are conceding GA, due to Tomlinson lack of funding

I'm not going to pretend to know the details of what has or has not been done behind the scenes because we as the public don't know that. Therefore, all I can do is expect results. Schumer hasn't gotten a single one of his recruits to run other than Mark Kelly and the candidate in this race.

As politics become more nationalized, there is no strategy to win back the Senate in the foreseeable future. Eventually, Manchin, Tester, Jones, Brown, etc are going to retire or lose.

Schumer seems frustratingly content. It's time to retire.

♪ One of these Senators' states is not like the others, one of these names does not belong. ♪

Which one? All of them are solidly red, and only trending further.

Brown may be less vulnerable than say Manchin or Tester, but let's not act like he isn't going to have trouble in future races - especially with the way Ohio is trending. His 2018 win showed him losing a lot of ground from his previous two runs.

Yes, Ohio is clearly a swing state that just happened to vote for Republicans in all row offices in a D+9 year. TX is not competitive though even though two statewide races were closer than any of the OH row office races, that’s a fluke

And before anyone @ me, no Im not saying TX is a swing state. Not yet at least

Dems arent gonna win TX with MJ Hegar.

Democrats swept all the statewide offices in Minnesota in 2014. Clearly anyone who calls it a swing stats is a moron. Connecticut had closer statewide races than Minnesota, so clearly it'll be more competitive in 2016.

Those aren't the same thing at all and I think you know that.

He did slightly better statewide in 2018 than he did in 2012.

He still lost several counties he won previously in 2012 and 2006, though. And considering 2018 was a much more Democratic year nationwide than 2012, a small swing is not as significant.

I genuinely don’t think he has the mental capacity to understand the difference. Either that or he’s trying WAYY too hard to save face over his previous assertions of Texas definitely NOT trending blue

If you ask me, it just sounds like he’d rather Democrats try to win homogeneous white areas over diverse ones, but whatever

The Gov race is still salvageable due to Bevin's approvals; Sen race in IA, TX and KY are lost. Barry Grissom will be the next Senator from KS and plan on donating to his campaign

1: Montana is trending blue.
2: You have to be willfully ignorant at best to think that Ohio is as red as West Virginia or Alabama. Not that we aren't trending red, mind. But it's an absurd leap.

I predict that we will trend to a little less red than Missouri and stay there for the foreseeable future.

I essentially agree. And apologize for derailing the thread to some degree.

Also, Mr. Illni, Steve Bullock is only 53, making him younger than Kamala Harris, who likely will be a Senate lifer if she isn't the nominee.

Did y’all know the DCCC tried to recruit Matt Jones for KY-06 last year, but he declined? I somehow doubt if he had lost to Barr by 5% that Senate leadership would be clamoring for him to get in the race against McConnell. A shame, because Jones seems to balance the flaws found Adkins—a good fit for the state with low national fundraising potential—and McGrath—the opposite.

He thinks 70 year old retired white factory workers who watch InfoWars are a more viable long term strategy than white progressives in Austin and Dallas, or low propensity black voters in Houston, or first time Latinx voters in Phoenix, or the burgeoning Asian electorate in Atlanta.

We must fight for people who will be dead in 10 years, in states that are becoming less and less electorally relevant (if they aren't already)

Absolutely dumbfounding. And don’t get me wrong, I’d love to be able to compete in Ohio and Missouri, but at some point ya gotta accept the fact that these people just don’t like Democrats anymore. It’s an exercise in futility to expend more effort trying to turn back time in those places over going with the path of least resistance in growing states like AZ, TX and GA where most the new people moving in or coming of age are overwhelmingly Democrat

I doubt Ohio will ever trend any more Republican than it became in 2016. On a Demographic level, Trumps coalition in the state is inherently unstable. He ran up the score in the rural areas of the state to the point of winning every single voter that would ever be willing to vote Republican in any circumstance. These areas happen to be losing population; so success based on reliance on these voters becomes harder every cycle. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati and Columbus Metros, basically the only areas of the state that are gaining population continue to trend Democratic, and will continue to do so as urban expansion continues, and as the areas diversify even more. The only part that is truly difficult for Democrats is that they need to get decent margins in urban area in Northern Ohio. Democrats need strong margins in places like the Toledo and Cleveland Metros. If the trends in the Cincinnati and Columbus Metros continue; then Democrats only need to get their margins back up in Urban Northern Ohio to take back the state; with no need to regain any of their lost ground in rural Ohio to win the state back.

I really hope other Democrats get in this race. After that Morning Joe appearance, I really am concerned that Mitch can win by over 20%. Not saying a Dem will win, but a strong candidate will cause Republicans to have to spend money.

Here is a Bold Prediction of note: Democrats have better odds of defeating Mitch McConnell than they do of re-electing Doug Jones in 2020.

LOL please tell me the DSCC isn't dense enough to waste a penny on this race. McGrath will lose by more then LG.

Eh, if she can drag any downballot candidates over the finish line, I'll consider it a success.

I'm backing Mike Broihier, who just announced today. Although he's running on some No Labels message, he seems solid enough on the issues and isn't a flip flopper like McGrath

If McGrath could not beat Barr, can she beat McConnell? Probably not.

Then, let McGrath step aside and she can be a Defense Secretary for a Democratic president.

No one is gonna beat McConnell

I like McGrath, she clearly has a grudge against McConnell and for good reason.

But she couldn't even win the second most Democratic district in the state during a D+9 Democratic wave. Her chances of beating McConnell approach 0%. In fact, even matching Alison Grimes' losing margin would be a big surprise.

Titanium R -> Titanium R

People are incapable of learning and let their hackery get in the way of reasonable electoral analysis far too often. Just look at all the Republicans who donate to the opponents of Pelosi, AOC, Maxine Waters, etc. in their D+9000 districts, lol.

The difference is that those states are potentially winnable in ideal circumstances. KY is not. Any cent spent on it is completely lit on fire.

DSCC isnt wasting money in TX Hegar, KY, MT Mues, GA Tonlimson and IA on Greenfield- weakest candidates by far. SC, AL, AK, KS, CO, NM, AZ and ME are seats that they are buying in

He's not responsible for Senate races.


I assume what you actually mean is where you think the DSCC should spend money, but SC and KS over GA, really?

There has never been a better time to be a political consultant looking to get their rake off than for leftists under Trump. The amount of money being thrown at these unwinnable races is insane

At least Republican have a few unwinnable races of their own where they are wasting tons of money.

IceSpear! Haven't seen you in a bit. I will take your opinions about the Southern United States under advisement.

Well, it is my forte after all. :)

I’m sure the Resister Sisters will keep throwing money at her because NC, GA, and TX aren’t as “sexy” as getting Mitch McConnell out. Smh.

Hours after the El Paso shooting, Massacre Mitch tweets photo with McGrath's name on a tombstone:

https://twitter.com/Team_Mitch/status/1157782112914890758?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...

Alas, karma always hits ya:

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1158106381372801030

New McConnell scandal breaking in the airwaves:

https://mobile.twitter.com/emrazz/status/1158504398164766720

Where's Bruce Lunsford's grave? I guess Mitch only enjoys beating women...

Outside of the Gov race, the Dems are gonna beat Mitch. Dems should dinate to AZ, CO, KS, ME and NC

And Steve Beshear's grave.

Both sides do that, they use physical violence to win elections.

It is stupid.

Wow, thats extremely scummy. Looks like such a tactic may have produced the exact opposite result, now that Jones has been axed he has really nothing to lose by running in the primary.

0/10, try something less predictable.

Schumer’s top recruit at it again! Seriously, Schumer sucks at his job. Why are Dems cool with him?

Yeah, Dick Durbin would be better Senate Democrats leader than Schumer by far

With McGrath's terrible gaffes and McConnell's terrible optics, Kentucky looks like it's heading for a dumpster fire election. It would be a good thing for the state and country if both lost their primaries imo.

Jesus Christ McGrath sucks.

Easily one of the most overrated candidates in the 2018 cycle too

Get this pile of trash out of here.

So much sexism in this thread. Typical atlas.

I can't be sexist, I have a biological birth mother.

It isn't inherently sexist to point out a female candidate's flaws.

Is lack of authenticity sexist? I don't think so.

Honestly, I don't know if it's reasonable to claim McGrath is a terrible candidate 14 months out. I will wait until Beshear v. Bevin finishes to start handicapping. To the vast majority of Kentuckians, I doubt anything McGrath says or McConnell does will impact the race this far out.

Her pluses:
- She got within 3 points in a district that has been moving away from Democrats since Ben Chandler almost lost it in 2010, and actually lost it in 2012 (and really before then, but still), and went 16 points for Trump.
- Extensive military service vs. "optic-neuritis, dismissed-from-service-Mitch" (it'll catch on)
- Turning out the media's new favorite people: "suburban white women" out of Lexington and Frankfort
Her minuses:
- Not a great media presence.
- She let(s) narratives too easily attach to her and makes dumb gaffes bigly. "socialist", "Trump = 9/11", "I would/wouldn't have voted for Kavanaugh (in the same day)"
- Frankly, she spent about 50% more than Andy Barr... only to lose. Yet, Barr (to my recollection) had ads blaring about her, 24/7. How does that happen when you are spending more than Marie Antoinette?

The best this can get is Likely R. With the best circumstances, she can get this within 10-12 points, but that's it. I think she's a good person, but she should have ran again for KY-6, which she at least has a chance of winning. But maybe it'll distract McConnell and keep him on his toes for a couple of months.

Even a perfect Democratic candidate would still lose to McConnell by double digits, but hopefully McGrath continues to implode, so that Democrats don't bother to flush money down the toilet in this race.

Catherine Cortez-Masto is head of DSCC.

McGrath was lauded as a recruit of Schumer not CCM

At this rate, McGrath might actually lose by more than Alison Lundergan Grimes did in 2014. McConnell will almost certainly carry Elliott County for the first time in his career. She'll be lucky to do as well as Jim Gray did in 2016.

Matt Jones looks like he's getting ready to hop in. He's pinned this to the top of his twitter feed:

https://twitter.com/krystalball/status/1163639730820571136

Don’t tell Politician that.

And I agree. I’d be shocked if she hit 40%.

It shouldn't be a surprise if McConnell does carry Elliott County. Hal Rogers won it for the first time in his career, in a competitive race last year, and I am doubtful that even Andy Beshear can carry it against Matt Bevin this year. Elliott is only continuing to trend away from the Democrats.

Literally anyone on this forum could have bs'ed an answer or pivoted to a different topic better than she did.

McGrath is looking like a total joke at this point

Probably the only candidate that could win Elliott County. Atlas will be thrilled by that despite McConnell's double digit win, lol.

If Adkins had won the nomination over Beshear earlier this year, he would probably be on track to defeat Bevin. Against McConnell, however, it's a different story. I think Adkins would do as well as Gray did in 2016, and he would definitely win Elliott County (where he has a base, and where he did exceptionally well against Beshear and Edelen). But McConnell would still win by around 12-15 points in the end, though.

I doubt he would win the primary against McGrath though, especially if Jones runs too.
Amy McGrath will have a small fortune to spend

This is also true, since Adkins did fall short against Beshear, and Jim Gray lost the primary to McGrath last year. It's a shame though, because Adkins and Gray both are more electable than Beshear and McGrath, for those respective races. But again, it ultimately would make little difference. Adkins would lose to McConnell maybe 56-44 or 57-43, while McGrath could very well lose 60-40 or even 62-38 against him.

She’ll probably have a big fortune to spend because idiots keep on pumping money into a lost cause in some vain effort to beat bogeyman McConnell. She raised $2.5 million on the first day alone. Talk about money on fire

Imagine if that was spent in GA and NC where GOP are already trying to smear our people. Ugh.

Forget donating to other political candidates, that money could've gone to like...feeding hungry kids or something. Instead it will become mere ash. Sad!

McConnell should honestly just troll and run those ASPCA type commercials that say "the money used to fund Amy McGrath's advertisements could have been used to send hundreds of our poorest Kentucky seniors to college for free, to build better animal kennels for our pounds, and to cover our poorest citizens' school lunch bill."

TBF it goes to stimulating the Kentucky economy. Wait nvm just goes to DC consultants.

And McConnell gets his money from corperations and Kentucky doesn't care because "Open Borders and Black man bad"

McGrath looks like a bad candidate, but McConnell will likely win by 10-25 points.

2021-27 will be his last term in office.

A Democrat can win in 2026 or 2032.

A radical partisan realignment would have to take place for this to happen. If anything, I wouldn't be surprised if McConnell is succeeded by someone like his protegee Cameron.

Well, Rocky's been a loyal soldier in campaigning for Beshear after the primary and if he could help Beshear run better in the East, and Beshear pulls off a win, then without taking sides, Beshear might take sides.  Rocky kind of has a John Bel style that could create a chance against Moscow Mitch.

This is how you do campaign ads.
https://twitter.com/AmyMcGrathKY/status/1164897509690527744

If there's any place in the party for anti-abortion Democrats, it's certainly not the US Senate. I'd rather take my chances with McGrath or the basketball guy or literally anyone else.

Great ad! Mitch McConnell's contempt for his own constituents is staggering.

Its just like a Greek prophecy at this point. McGrath has created the fate that she had tried so hard to avoid.

I don’t know what’s so attractive about running for a nomination forthe right to get publicly humiliated by McConnell. Unless it’s solely for the graft

Is it really so unimaginable to you that he thinks he can win?

He thinks Bevin will win by double digits, he's not exactly the brightest.

Many low-IQ posters these days. Very sad to see :(

You think Elliott County is more likely to vote D than Tarrant County

1. I don't think that.
2. How would you know? You registered 2 months ago, you shouldn't be able to know about a thread I deleted, unless you're a sock.

Lurker.

@sjoyce: Wendy Long thought that she could beat schumer too. Didn’t make her any less foolish

Something tells me this post is going to end up in the cellar of exquisitely aged content.

In the US Senate next year, yes.
In the Presidential Race, no.

()

I love eating Popcorn between Icespear and Politican fueds.
I lean more towards Icespear anyway but both of them are massive FF posters to me on the congressional board. T

Cornyn and McConnell arent gonna be defeated, but Rocky Adkins says he will run should Beshear win against Bevin. 

MT-SEN, KS-SEN and AK-SEN and MA-SEN with Joe Kennedy are getting more campaign donations than TX and KY

Jones exploratory committee has filed.

Another joins the DEM primary - Eric Rothmuller, a 31 year old Louisville resident, is a gamer best known for playing StarCraft.

https://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/391/201909169163346391/201909169163346391.pdf

ThE tUrTlE iS fInIsHeD!

McConnell is in so much trouble in KY should Bevin lose

This has to be a joke. Even if Bevin loses (which he won't), McConnell would still be absolutely safe in 2020, and McGrath hasn't done herself any favors.

Yeah, Olawakandi thinks Bevin will lose because Moscow Mitch is unpopular, but Mitch himself is safe. Sounds logic.

AARP polls has it Mitch 47 McGrath 46

McGrath raised $10 million this quarter:
https://twitter.com/AmyMcGrathKY/status/1182259828925882369

()

The definition of insanity.

We should steal the money from McGrath and give it to Cunningham, Gideon, and Greenfield.

Not sure why people think Amy doesn't have a chance to win?

Obstructionist Mitch will go down in a wave after Beshear wins in Nov, of Course

Because it is Kentucky.

I mean, maybe this is good for building up the Kentucky Democratic Party.  Surely there will be some down-ballot benefit to all this.

Are the Cincinnati, Louisville, and Lexington suburbs growing quickly?

Kentucky isn't urban/suburban enough for McGrath to have a Beto Effect, and I'm sure her campaign will still be toxic for the rural and small-town regions.

There, fixed it for you.

She is like the Democrats' equivalent of AOC's Republican challengers who suck up hundreds of thousands of dollars from gullible members of their party.

Let's put it this way...Jaime Harrison has more of a chance.

She won't even be the nominee.

She will. Jones and Adkins would be foolish to run against someone who has $11 M in the bank account.

Because Trump will carry the state by 25 points (probably even more) and you won’t have enough Trump/McGrath voters for her to win.

Just because that's what you want to happen, doesn't mean it will.

Full support to Rocky Adkins. He might make it Likely R.

https://twitter.com/KMaxGreenwood/status/1182391098909614080

McConnell got outrasied 5 to 1 by McGrath LMAO

I mean, that's great and humiliating for Cocaine Mitch, but, it doesn't really matter.

I was criticized for saying this about John James, but for this one... going to be sad to see this money go down the drain.

Mcconnel could raise a penny and still win by double digits in a mega recession

Against McGrath he would still win, but against Adkins? I honestly think he could be beaten in a recession.

He won in the midst of the 2008 recession, and that was at a time when Kentucky was still somewhat friendly to Democrats down-ballot.

()

And when it was "only" McCain +15 vs. Trump +30.

But...but....if we nominate someone who is #populist all the Trump voters will magically become progressive Dems!!!!

Yes, it seems Republicans are being much smarter about where they are putting their resources than democrats are. Watch us lose NC (and thus the majority) by like 500 votes or something like that all because Cunningham is woefully underfunded while McGrath meanwhile raised more than what he’s raised in a single day

Kentucky is more likely to flip than Kansas because reasons!

The amount of confidence in Cunningham in this thread is stunning.

But yeah, pretty sure Al Gross would be a better place for the money than here in KY.

McGrath needs to drop out and donate this money to the Democratic parties in NC, AZ, GA, and TX.

The only "defeat" Democrats could plausibly give McConnell would be making him Minority Leader, and it kinda baffles me that they still don't get that. Never mind Kansas or Texas, Mississippi would flip before Kentucky.

()

And no I am not arguing that McGrath has a chance or people who believe she is aren't delusional before anyone throws in more straw.

ME as well.

Oh, and donate a few bucks to Peters and Jones.

Uh the base of both parties are idiots. See AOC.

True. But you don’t see that guy raising $10 million for said unwinnable race

I think that was just one candidate . There are like 3 more grifters for AOCs district .Add in more house ds like Maxine waters and Omar.

I mean, I've spoken to Bernie fans who say Bernie will make the south competitive because M4A will turn them all into progressives...

Who on this site has said this?

There are a sizable amount of people who are not on Atlas. Obviously you don't need to believe me, but there are people who are convinced progressive candidates could flip obviously Safe R states.

If they're not posting here what's the point of sarcastically "calling them out" on this site?

I'm using them as examples of some people who fall into the type I described above.

I don’t see where in his post he did that. Maybe I’m stupid, though. I only got a 34/36 on ACT Reading Comprehension.

Pathetic.

Any more insight into how the molestation allegations helped Roy Moore that you would like to contribute here?

I am predicting a wave up to 53 seats: wish list AK, KY, GA, AL , KS and TX and takeovers are AZ, CO, NC, IA that can very well happen

Can we plaster the LA-GOV results across the walls of the rooms of people who think McGrath has a chance?

A Democrat running way ahead of the state's partisanship is not the best example to use, much better ones are available.

A better example would be Randy Bryce, I’m still amazed at how much money this stupid dude raised (for losing by double digits in the end)

We will find out in Nov, should Beshear unseat Bevin, if McGraft can unseat McConnell.  I am impressed with McGraft

“McGraft” lol

If McGrath doesn't drop out now I will lose any respect i ever had for her. She can't seriously believe she has any chance of winning now that we see a popular governor is struggling to win re-election due to this polarization.

In a state that is far more urban and far less white, no less.

See, this is exactly the problem — what does Roy Moore have to do with your poor ACT score? No wonder you had trouble with reading comprehension.

She's capably of winning

The fact that Amy McGrath is considered a "strong candidate" and McConnell is viewed as a "weak incumbent" by pundits shows you how meaningless, subjective, and utterly useless the candidate quality dichotomy (strong--weak, great--awful, good--bad) is. Just because he’s unpopular doesn’t mean that he’s an ineffective campaigner (far from it, actually).

I unironically believe that McConnell is a "stronger incumbent" than Gardner or Tillis despite being more unpopular. Shocker, I know.

I have AZ, CO, GA, KY, ME and NC as lean D. MASS and AL as R takeovers, due to Warren becoming President

McConnell is a weaker candidate  than Gardner , its just that Garden is running in Colorado while McConnell is running in Kentucky

https://twitter.com/rollcall/status/1189950202259628032

lol.

inb4 they consider a 9% loss "close." These people never learn. ::)

Lmao what a bunch of idiots.

We will have to wait til next Tuesday,  but if Beshear wins, McGrath can unseat McConnell, whom have low approvals

dammit

Clown Schumer spent his precious time lobbying for McGrift to enter KY and for Jeff Jackson to stay out of NC.

LMFAO at "even if Beshear loses the Senate race is winnable!1!!" The Stupid Party strikes again. They don't deserve to win the Senate tbh.

Liberal media people really need to stop giving her the time of day.

McConnell is 100% safe, and there's absolutely nothing Democrats can do about it. Every dollar they spend here is wasted.

McConnell is not safe, but Dems should spend their money on AL, AZ, CO, GA, KS, ME and NC

I agree with the above, from a strategic point of view.

Updated prediction: Safe R -> Likely R closer to Safe than Lean.


By percentages : 99% chance McConnell wins -> 95% chance McConnell wins

Safe R -> Safe R

Yeah the one good thing for R's for losing KY gov is that Mcgrath might actually outfundraise Beto here with none of the downballot effects either(ok maybe KY06 could flip if Trump is losing big nationally too)

So Beshear beat the least popular Republican governor in the country by 10K votes. Any one of these factors would erase that Democratic lead in this race:

- McGrath's missteps and awful campaign which is pretty clearly far inferior to the campaign Beshear ran
- McGrath's inability to capitalize on the popular Beshear family name
- this being a federal race and not a gubernatorial election
- the fact that this election will be held in a presidential year where weird off-year turnout dynamics (which clearly benefited Democrats this year) won’t be a factor (this also applies to AL-SEN)  
- McConnell being a far more competent candidate who not only clearly understands his state better than Matt Bevin but is also unlikely to be caught asleep at the wheel and tends to run scorched earth campaigns
- McConnell not being Matt Bevin

I’m not changing my rating.

I think McConnell wins 56-43 next year

I have a feeling that McGrath is going to receive a boat load of donations tonight, which I can’t say I’m mad about.

She's tweeting out delusions about how she is going to replicate Beshear's performance and get rid of Mitch, and she's raising a sh-t ton of money doing it. I hate her. LOL.

If Matt Bevin just barely lost, it proves Mitch McConnell is safe.

Let's compare:

2014-Sen: R+15.5
2015-Gov: R+8.7
2019-Gov: D+0.4 (a 9.1-point shift)

If we were to apply the 2015-2019 shift to McConnell, he would end up with a margin of R+6.4, which is very close to his 2008 margin of R+5.9. Yes, I agree that McConnell is still favored, but that kind of margin suggests that he could fall if he tried to sleepwalk to victory (so I would rate him likely rather than safe).

This is still Safe R with McGrath as the Dem candidate. If Matt Jones or Rocky Adkins run instead, there may be a very slim possibility of a Democratic victory and so given it would not be entirely safe it might be Likely R.

No it doesn't, Lunsford ran a competetive campaign in KY, in 2008, in a Prez yr, Trump is a weak Prez just like Dubya, that only got in by winning the EC college,  not popular vote

That both implies that McGrath (or whoever the Dems nominate) will be as much of an improvement over Grimes that Beshear was over Conway (which is very unlikely) and that there's even a chance McConnell will be caught "sleeping at the wheel" which we know will not happen. If there's one thing you can grant McConnell, it's that he knows how to win elections and he runs a savage campaign every time. So Safe R is still the most reasonable rating IMO.

McConnell is not safe, its Lean R, but at the moment, but Lunsford ran a very good election,  when he wasnt even backed by the Dems,  in 2008.

gimme McConnell by ten

Certainly possible we see other Dems express interest here now.

Democrats:

PLEASE. DO. NOT. INVEST. IN. KENTUCKY.

If you absolutely MUST throw your money into a quixotic race, go for South Carolina.  Demographics are more favorable there than Kentucky, anyhow.

Yes, Bevin actually did lose (just barely), but gubernatorial races are more likely to buck the partisan lean of a state. Not to mention, Beshear was a far better candidate than McGrath is proving to be. Despite getting the gubernatorial race wrong, I remain convinced that this race is Safe R, even if McConnell does underperform Trump by a decent margin.

Adkins needs to jump in at this point.

MS is more favorable to them then SC.

So it begins...

https://twitter.com/SenGillibrand/status/1191906601101398016

I just hope the DSCC and other national Democratic groups have more sense than to invest in this race.

Thanks to Citizens United, campaign contributions are basically an unlimited resource now, so "diversion of resources" doesn't matter that much. And also, even though McGrath is proving to be a disappointment so far, you can never be too sure about these things. After all, Beto O'Rourke was criticized for diverting money to a "hopeless" senate race in Texas, but he ended up doing way better than people who "should" have gotten the money.

Also, KY gubernatorial elections are being held off-cycle, which is the factor as well.

Safe R with McGrath, she is running a terrible campaign and couldn't win KY-6 in a Democratic wave. Likely R with Adkins, who is a far more competent candidate who will do much better in eastern Kentucky. However, McConnell is not losing regardless.

Texas is a fast growing state with half a dozen highly populated metropolises. The electorate there is also 41% non-white, with a burgeoning population of college ed white liberals. Not the same thing at all.

They are lobbing money at a poor, 85% white, rural state that abhors national Democrats. McGrath can NOT run away from national issues in this race and will lose no matter what.

The one bad thing about Bevin being toppled is that more money is going to be lit ablaze on McGraft’s behalf. Will probably be the most expensive Senate race ever at this point and there’s a good chance she might not even hit 40%

I'll admit that gubernatorial races in red states are (generally) more winnable for Democrats than I thought, but people need to learn that this isn't the case for Senate races. Even if Edwards wins, that doesn't make Cassidy vulnerable, nor does Baker's win make MA-SEN winnable for Republicans. Kentucky appears to be a state where Democrats can still win statewide races (under favorable circumstances), but federal races are a different story.

Kentucky GOP visibly worried about Matt Jones (https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/469217-kentucky-gop-files-complaint-against-potential-mcconnell-challenger)

Dems have AZ, CO, IA, ME and NC as their pathway to Senate; as a result, Ernst can lose should Biden be on ballot. This seat is definitely 2nd tier, but in 2008, wave, where Dems won 8 seats, its winnable

hahahhahaha

https://twitter.com/matthewjdowd/status/1191903500290199552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw


https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1191921072075083776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw


Surprised ABC is more wrong than Cook

As I stated before, 2008 produced 5-8 seats. AZ, CO, IA, ME and NC are Dems pathway to Senate majority.  KY and VA results made it much more likely that Biden, not Warren wins the nomination.  Biden can penetrate Appalachia. KY, KS , SC, TX and AK are Dems wish list; as a result, a Dems can duplicate a 2008 wave, Trump, is a Palin R, not a Reagan R, due to changing Demographics of Blacks and Latinos making up 40% of population

Maybe it's just "coincidence" but literally two days after the KY election, McConnell signed on to plan to provide funding to insolvent coal miner pensions that he'd been blocking for a couple of years now.

Link (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-energy-202/2019/11/08/the-energy-202-mitch-mcconnell-s-surprise-turnaround-means-coal-miner-s-pensions-a-lot-more-secure/5dc47c65602ff1184c316363/)

He'd been blocking it because Tea Party types and Wyoming (for they're own grifty reason) didn't want it, but daddy has to watch out for his own butt right now.

2008 is even more probable and throwing out conventional wisdom, with Trump and his Tea Party conservative R party in the House and Senate, they will slip further into minority status, just like 2009-11 wave years

New Democratic candidate, positioning himself clearly to McGrath’s left

https://twitter.com/booker4ky/status/1193974283992780805?s=21

Not Rocky. Not a chance of making this anything other than Safe R.

Could Matt Jones beat Mitch Mcconnell? I'm sure he has a better chance than Mcgrath.

No, but you're right that he'd do better than McGrath.

McConnell will have a competetive race, regardless, as long as Biden, who does well in Appalachia,  is the nominee

I'd say if the race was held today McConnell wins 55-45 or so. Depending on the national environment, this could get as close to 53-47 or 52-48, but barring scandals or any new degree of sleaze we haven't yet seen from Moscow Mitch, I fail to see how Jones would outright beat McConnell. Adkins is probably the only one who could.

Adkins is our only hope. But I maintain he'll still lose.

Honestly Ds would be smart to get behind a primary challenger to McConnell.

Bevin did it once, and he ain't busy now.

Sounds like Rocky Adkins is gonna jump in.

McGrath vs. Adkins vs. Booker could wind up looking a lot like Beshear vs. Adkins vs. Edelen.

Makes sense.  At this point, it will be 8 years before he gets another chance at governor, and his state legislative seat will only get more R over time. 

Today it was announced that Rocky Adkins is taking a position in Governor-elect Andy Beshear's administration. Therefore, he will be resigning his State House seat and will NOT be running for U.S. Senate.

https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article237959839.html

It also looks like former Lexington Mayor Jim Gray will be out of the running for U.S. Senate as well; Beshear appointed Gray to be his Secretary of Transportation today.

https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article237957439.html

Rocky's a good soul to take a job in the admin, but this both gives up his seat and loses our best hope for Senate.

Whelp, Safe R

It was always Safe R. A McConnell demolition of McGrath is all but assured at this point, as neither Adkins nor Gray will be running for the seat.

Dems are consolidating where they can win at and KY falls by the wasteside like AK, MT and SC


ME, IA, GA, AZ, CO, KS, TX and NC is the Senate majority, even if they dont win every race

Oh yes I agree. Rocky I'd say makes it Likely, but McGrath was always going to be crushed.

We have such a good slate of candidates in Kentucky for senate including State Rep Charles Booker. Shame that none of them can win. I still am supporting McGrath, but Rep Booker is a good man and I am proud to call him a fellow democrat.

McGrath can win, McConnell is one of the 10Rs vulnerable

Endorsed.

New articles tonight on how McConnell views Trump lowly, and Amy McGrath is not appealing to the progressive base in KY.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/20/how-mitch-mcconnell-became-trumps-enabler-in-chief

https://www.teenvogue.com/story/mcgrath-mcconnell-kentucky-young-voters

Pretty damning article of McConnell

The problem for these wave insurance seats isnt because of poor funding, but it's about $$$, in a sense on online funding, candidates have to rely on their own funding to fund their campaign,  she has a 33% chance of winning

Amy McGrath is running a horrible campaign. It's one thing to not be a perfect progressive, that's probably necessary if you are to have any hope of winning in Kentucky. It's quite another to only talk about opposing progressive priorities.

It's not like we had a chance of beating McConnell anyway, but this is just embarrassing.

It's a perfectly example of why (despite what some election twitter dorks and sh**tty CNN analysts tell you) that just because you're a moderate in a red seat doesn't mean you're going to do better. I've been incredibly impressed with how Booker has run his campaign and the number of endorsements he's been able to get while going up against a DCCC darling.

https://www.ket.org/program/kentucky-tonight/2020-primary-election-candidates-part-one/

There's been two debates over the past few days but I think you need a VPN set to Kentucky in order to view them.

Starting to see a lot of activity regarding Mike Broihier.

Will be interesting to see how this primary plays out.

Dems dont need to waste money in any more states like AK, KY and SC, defend KS, MT, ME, IA and NC.

May be the first time I've seen a Teen Vogue article link here, eagerly await Tiger Beats take on the race.

Yeah, McConnell is trash and McGrath is underwhelming

I'd have thought it was a fairly easy McGrath victory thanks to Broihier and Booker likely sharing more floating voters with each other than either does with McGrath.

https://twitter.com/MikeForKY/status/1267845251533864965

I'm getting so tired of Ojeda getting in the way of everything. If Booker loses by a slim margin, He and Williamson have to answer for that.

Yes I'm aware that their endorsements probably don't move the needle much but imo you have a responsibility as a political public figure to be intelligent with your endorsing decisions.

McGrath has been favored in the primary from the beginning and a little known former state Senator from West Virginia, who was also a candidate in one of the most overhyped races of the 2018 cycle, would not change that. I'll say the primary is Likely McGrath, it doesn't really matter who wins though, since the winner of this primary is losing to McConnell by double digits in November.

Why are Ds obsessed with KY, Ds have MT and KS to win and Ds can win those. Cal Cunningham isn't all that great of a candidate,  he has been tied or behind Tillis, so it's not sold that he will win.

Dems must target Daines and KS and GA to have a shot at majority in case Cunningham loses, KY is gone

For once you make perfect sense.

https://twitter.com/Booker4KY/status/1269102605764042754

United front with Broihier, or a Sanders/Warren endorsement?

Beshear maybe? He's gotten a lot of state level Dem endorsements.

I don't like Amy McGrath. Charles Booker is a much better candidate.

Mitch McConnell will still unfortunately win though.

It seems it was either that they'd raised over $1m, or this:

https://twitter.com/Booker4KY/status/1269417587571601411

Sigh, KY isnt in play

Booker on the offensive. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISJxk9d-6_c)

Unlikely to happen, but it would honestly be hilarious to see McGrath break ActBlue records just to lose to Booker in the home stretch.

The nomination is safe McGrath as long as both Booker and Broihier remain in the race.

https://twitter.com/phillipmbailey/status/1269792623973318656
He claims later in the thread that the rumour relates to (presumably private) polling numbers. He has also said Booker is "in mid-30s where rumors have him now." Do KY Democrats here think McGrath is a lock for the nomination?

Would Booker preform better than McGrath?

Probably not, but that would come at the expense of donations better sent elsewhere and he might do more to build party infrastructure/name ID for a future run at a less hopeless race.

McGrath is awful.

Safe R, regardless of who wins.

Rocky Adkins should have ran.

McGrath will lose by 17 points.

If McGrath loses the primary, can she then donate her leftover money to other candidates and Democratic entities (like the DSCC)?

inb4 McConnell only wins by like 7 or something

Should that happen, hopefully we flip KY06

LOL he would do worse than even Hillary

Why? I think Hillary was the floor for Dems in Kentucky.

The McGrath hatred in here is a bit ridiculous. Would be hilarious if she not only wins the primary bigly, but puts up a good fight against McConnell

She could/should give it to the Kentucky Democratic Party and the state parties in TX, NC, & GA.

I like Charles a bit, but McConnell would destroy him on supporting GND.

He'll also destroy McGrath on supporting the GND, because even if she says she doesn't, she'll have close to zero credibility with too many voters. Booker could at least conceivably have a political future in KY and could benefit from a well-run campaign.

Still Safe R.

KY Democrats should look to 2026.

Fair, but I doubt Booker does any better than she would do.

Lexington Herald-Leader endorses Booker. (https://www.kentucky.com/opinion/editorials/article243084106.html)

The momentum certainly seems to be in Booker's favor.

Me and Bernie agree <3

While no one is going to beat Mitch McConnell, I think it is better for Democrats to go with a candidate who genuinely believes in what they says and will wage a good campaign, then for someone who is a demonstrated flip-flopper and has poor campaign skills.

Hoping for Booker, but realistically expecting McGrath.

The Democratic nominee against McConnell will have absolutely zero trouble raising significant money, and the national Dems know that. They're wary of swapping in Booker for other reasons.

Lord help me, I'm going to start volunteering for a Berniecrat next week. They're both going to lose to Turtle but Booker is better and I want McGrath banished from politics.

This seat along with AK, AL, SC and TX will help Ds get to 60 votes along with GA specials

Meh, I think neither here is the best candidate possible. Cocaine Mitch is obviously going to win regardless. Just don't see how a national race with Trump on the ballot is going in the Democrats' favor here. Even if Joe Biden wins a modern-day landslide, the old turtle would still bin 15%. He probably wins by 18-20% in the end. Polling has never been that reliable here, so don't get your hopes up.

No one is getting their hoped up, but the Southern Strategy is finally being done away with, with Confederate flags being dismantled in the South. KY, MO were Confederate boarder states and if there is a landslide Galliway and McGrath can win , if Biden wins by 8, larger than the 2008 6 or landslide Obama had

2008, McConnell won by only 10 pts when Obama won the PVI, by 6, if its 8 pt PVI, McGrath will win.

McConnell won by 20 in 2014 due to it being a midterm

That's why Bullock and Bollier have a chance in red states, partisan leans arent like midterms than in Prez elections. That's why Gross can win in AK, and Dems win a Supermajority,  Begich won in 2008

I really like Mike and Booker I fear that them both being in the race means that Mcgrath will win the nomination not that it matters that much in kentucky anyway but if i had to choose one Id go with booker

Welcome aboard!

No matter how long you stay, you're still welcome to stand with us.

I have some ideas, but what do you think those reasons are?

Is someone scared?

https://twitter.com/AmyMcGrathKY/status/1271465886780661760?s=20

The national party will support the candidate using more moderate rhetoric 99 times out of 100 regardless of their actual platforms, due to both perceptions about electability and the belief that vocal progressive candidates will cause headaches for party leadership if they are elected. I'm sure there's also some quiet worry that Booker as a Black Democrat in 2020 has limited appeal in Kentucky.

What a nasty, vile person.

FTFY

You really should know better than to reply to OC.

Dems are leading by 9 pts in ME over Collins and Ernst is behind by 3 and GA are going to runoffs. The Rs are on the run in MT, KS and NC, Dems are up 8 seats, while KY, SC, TX and AK can clinch a 60/40 Senate and get Dems PR and DC statehood and 11 judge panel on SCOTUS,  I have my Hope's up

Dems say McGrath still has a yuge lead in private polling. (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/13/booker-mcgrath-mcconnell-kentucky-senate-316201)

I really don't think anyone outside of atlas knows who Booker is. He does not have nearly the fundraising or the name ID to mount that big of an upset

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/13/booker-mcgrath-mcconnell-kentucky-senate-316201 (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/13/booker-mcgrath-mcconnell-kentucky-senate-316201)

Politico has an excellent profile of the Democratic Primary here. Apparently Charles Booker has momentum, endorsements from Bernie Sanders, AOC, and the two largest newspapers in Kentucky.

McGrath has $19 million on hand as of the beginning of this month, which is more than Mitch McConnell's 2014 opponent Alison Lundergan Grimes spent during her entire race at all.

I think McGrath would be the stronger candidate to face McConnell in terms of winning the race, but wouldn't it be awesome to replace Mitch with an actual progressive?

National Democrats truly have no idea what they’re doing in red states and national progressives way-overestimate their influence in red states. Really wish Adkins had ran.

Honestly, at this point I hope Mary Ann Tobin wins the Democratic primary. She won the State Auditor election in 1983 with 64 % (!) and thus she is the only one in the primary having ever won a statewide race, hell yeah, even in a landslide! Plus she has a cute dog (https://scontent-frx5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/p960x960/89615160_120712539519766_2539730182076366848_o.jpg?_nc_cat=100&_nc_sid=85a577&_nc_oc=AQm9b0dENWBj04K8LOvzoX49kWDvp_xyeUhfk0Mx182LCGNCRKJs3NVitRHuiLG3p4XLFGWgklRqYyiMvWcRXSvN&_nc_ht=scontent-frx5-1.xx&_nc_tp=6&oh=2f8cb5d316d5b7c0bb6b83a7218e74a7&oe=5F090E1F). With Joe Biden being the oldest major party nominee ever, her progressed age (80 something? found no birth date anywhere...) is just in line with the Democratic presidential nominee. While she was serving as public servant in Kentucky, Charles Booker was crying for food in his diapers and Amy McGrath just learnt how to add numbers in elementary school. Take that!

And if she were to be nominated, national Democrats would maybe finally treat this race as what it is. A lost cause.

After McGrath wins, she can hire Booker's staff and give them all that.

Has there ever been a candidate with a huge bank like that lose a primary?  I know people have spent huge amounts and lost, but this is in the bank.  How would that money be disbursed if she lost (and i doubt she will)?

I don't know whether there ever has been someone, but suppose that Kelly Loeffler has a good chance of clinching that position after Georgia's jungle primary in November.

This is comically bad

It's not what it used to be, but some people do still read the Herald-Leader and the Courier-Journal...

I guess but $19 million is a lot to counter for some local newspapers

Booker is trailing in his own internal, this primary is basically over


https://bookerforkentucky.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Booker-Internal-2020-06-13.pdf

Is this guy affiliated with Booker's campaign or is he just talking out of his ass?

https://twitter.com/kartpath/status/1271909153599037444

McGrath will probably take this because nothing good happens but I'm rooting for Booker.

He appears to be affiliated with MVMT, one of the poll's sponsors.

Conservative white woman notable for her (campaign for) U.S. House attempts to run for statewide office in a Southern state, polling frontrunner with notable support from out of state, only to be upset in the last few days by a young black left-wing elected official? That upstart candidate only close in his own internals, but with a dominating sense of momentum in the final days before the primary? Not going to draw out the analogy too far, but we have heard this song somewhere else a couple years ago.

This isn't a Graham scenario, and it isn't that applicable here. Also had Graham won the primary, she'd be Governor right now. Also that primary arguably had 3 possible frontrunners (Graham, Levine, Gillum), which made the result very unpredictable.

Also Graham had actually won the seat she ran for and was forced out only because of redistricting.

The reasoning could very well be true, but it’s insinuation is likely off.

Shame on the Broihier numbers, I really liked him.

Coming from someone who supported her 2018 run, and was supporting her 2020 run, what the hell is wrong with her? I have had enough. Also why the heck am I seeing your ads in Texas? Switching my futile support to Mike Broihier.

The difference here is that Gwen Graham is a competent candidate who happened to lose to another competent candidate.

This is, perhaps, one of the worst posts I've seen on this website — certainly in this thread. Let's take it sentence by sentence.
This sentence is meaningless. Nobody knows what a "Graham scenario" is, and making the broad claim that "it's not applicable here" without any reasoning to back it up means you're just making a hollow claim with no support. You have to explain your logic and why your claim is true if you want people to take it seriously.

This sentence is irrelevant. We're discussing the dynamics of a Democratic primary, not whether or not the candidates in question would win their general election. This non sequitur does nothing to advance your point and is wholly off-topic.

And this sentence is wrong. Absolutely, factually wrong: Gillum led in one poll, sponsored and released by his campaign and conducted by (highly-respected) Change Research. The vast majority of polling had Graham in front or tied. "Arguably" is doing a lot of work in this sentence, but not enough to make it a valid claim.

Ugh! That sucks.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1272228230108516354

I'm very surprised to hear it

Oh f--k yes

It's genuinely sort of amazing how little local support McGrath has.

There's not a single state representative of senator endorsing her listed on wikipedia.

If she loses it will be hilarious

Hopefully, we have Charles Booker and Harrison

why are we arguining about Gwen Graham? We had at least 10 pages on the old Florida 2018 thread with democrats insulting each other over that!

You love to see it!

https://twitter.com/RuralChrisLee/status/1273049880446095363

https://twitter.com/StumboForKY/status/1273039087792844802?s=20

Damn, McGrath must be toxic to actual Kentuckians.

Hopefully, if McGrath loses or has a close call, Democrats stop donating here, but given that their donations are to oppose McConnell and not support McGrath, it probably doesn't matter. McGrath has like a 0.5% chance of winning this seat, and Booker has a 0.1% chance, so McGrath is probably the better candidate, but if Booker winning causes people to stop donating here, it would be worth it.

https://twitter.com/KYSecState/status/1272991853932134400

I see McGrath went to the same seminar that Hickenlooper and Engel went to: "The basics in screwing things up a couple weeks before the primary".

Just looked at the endorsements for McGrath and Booker, and unless I'm completely missing something, McGrath has zero local endorsements. Everyone from Kentucky who has endorsed has endorsed Booker.

She does have some support from local labor unions, if you want to count those.

But in terms of elected officials, yeah, looks like it.

I also don't think her website has anything about who has or hasn't endorsed her, which is extra funny.

I am heartened to see KY Dems rally around a Black candidate who is qualified, capable, and on paper without any biases... the better candidate. Far too many primaries I have seen state parties (especially in states with KY's demographics) rally around inadequate white candidates based off of nothing but the fear that anything else would scare the electorate.

McGrath is a terrible candidate with putrid consultants.

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1272879428205510656?s=20

She couldn't even acknowledge Breonna Taylor, a Kentuckian first responder murdered by the police while she was sleeping. SMH.

https://twitter.com/Booker4KY/status/1272912045990645761?s=20

Does that make Mike Broihier a younger Joe Biden? Very confused now.

Why does McGrath have so few in-state endorsements? I feel like that's the sort of situation you don't get unless you have an impressively toxic personality.

The gist of it really is that McGrath has never really been particularly a candidate that had any connections with the state party establishment, and indeed has always kinda crossed them.

Her 2018 House run actually kinda pissed off the local party folks for several reasons:
1) They were planning on running Lexington’s then-Mayor Jim Gray for that seat, so her jumping in kinda got them upset in the first place.
2) Her campaign gained traction on the back of a viral ad that was made by an out-of-state firm, and that ad meant she got a boatload of money from out-of-state support.
3) The general election campaign by her was functionally run by the DCCC, which meant the local party operatives were basically barred.

This Senate campaign is even worse on at least the latter two of those fronts. She has basically been running a national campaign (running ads in big media markets out of state, earned media mostly on major national cable news, donations almost entirely outside KY, etc.), and the DSCC is functionally running her campaign. Keep in mind the DSCC is even more heavy handed than the DCCC. And that is why the local endorsements for her are basically non-existent.

Ayanna Pressley just endorsed Charles Booker for Senate, whom might replace Warren if she is selected Veep and Kennedy oust Markey

https://mobile.twitter.com/ayannapressley/status/1273252989130739715?s=21

Yeah, this is good. First, McGrath used her national profile in '18 as an aesthetic lesbian to snuff out an actual LGBT candidate who won KY-6 just two years prior while running for Senate - who in my view, would have likely won the seat had he been the nominee, given actual '18 performance. Then, instead of using that as a launchpad to run again and potentially win, decides to launch her "I wrote Mitch McConnell a letter as a kid and I never got the reply I wanted" Senate bid using the classic DNC boilerplate consultant teams and strategy.

That Politico article shared several posts back? It can honestly be boiled down to two simple paragraphs that sum up these campaigns:


How many thousands of dollars do you think the McGrath campaign spent on focus-grouping the generic "I'M PRO-[STATE], PRO-[COUNTRY]!" line?

At any rate, I've been on the anti-establishment side enough times to know that McGrath, her money, the Democratic establishment and the brainless Democratic primary voters who do whatever the f[inks]k the former tells them to do (especially post-Trump; thanks white suburbrons!) will likely swoop her across the finish line with a double-digit win. The one potential sign of this being winnable is the fact that so many prominent politicians both in-state and out-of-state are coming to Booker's side right now.

What?

She is what those who live outside of or have no connections to Kentucky think will beat McConnell

Did I stutter?

Just in case you're legitimately asking/not familiar with the 2016 KY Senate GE or 2018 KY-6 primaries:
https://www.huffpostbrasil.com/entry/jim-gray-kentucky-congress_n_5a26a387e4b086e4e5046f25

https://ballotpedia.org/Jim_Gray_(Kentucky)

https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article188086754.html


Yes: McGrath underperformed Gray by 5 points despite her enjoying a Democratic tsunami election (especially relative to the 2016 Kentucky climate that Gray faced).

If McConnell does the right thing and pass more stimulus checks, he will help his cause, but he blocks the stimulus checks, he will be hurt

1+2 =/= 4. Just because Gray carried KY06 in 2016 does not mean he would carry it in 2018. When one runs statewide they end up with a brand more generic than a district brand. The less constituents, the more tailored your campaign and brand must be. Ossoff is going to learn this in a few months when he carries GA06, even if loses the state. More relevant to the discussion though is Paul Davis in KS-02, who carried the seat when he ran against Brownback, but then lost the seat in 2018.

Am I defending McGrath? Nope, all I am saying is that both Gray and McGrath would have lost KY06 by a small margin. There are just too many ancestral democrats in the seat for a democrat to win when running a focused district campaign.

Similarly, Democrats are going to lose KY-Sen by at least 20 points no matter who is nominated, so who cares who wins the seat next week.

Gray won Ky06 not just because he did better than Hillary in the coalfields but also because he was mayor of Lexington, he broke 60% in Fayette in 2016 of all years which is the first time I think that a Democrat has broken 60% in Fayette, in a statewide race this century.

Jim Gray was the mayor of Lexington.

I see you guys ignored the example of KS02, which I think is the most relevant example of what a hypothetical KY-06 election with Gray would have looked like. Davis kept his margin from 2014 in Lawrence, but lost ground everywhere else, leading to a close loss.

Hope Booker wins

Not a perfect example, federal vs. state race. Jim Gray performing as well as he did in KY-06 (and he performed well) despite no aid from the national party and probably being hurt by the top of the ticket more than he was helped. No question he was formidable and an incredibly well-defined entity in the district.

McGrath also (in)famously refused to run negative ads against Barr, hard to imagine Gray doing the same.

What happened to "all blue dog dems"?

Yes it's not a perfect example, but its better than looking backwards with Rose-tinted glasses and imagining what might have been. The past is written, the ink is dry. The job now is to find future battles, and KY-Sen is not a battle worth fighting, so who cares who wins.