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Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => U.S. Presidential Election Results => Topic started by: sg0508 on August 04, 2019, 07:06:28 pm



Title: Describe a 1984 Mondale voter, and a 1988 Bush voter
Post by: sg0508 on August 04, 2019, 07:06:28 pm
All I can think of is "Willie Horton" and those suburban voters that pushed George Bush to victory, especially in MD and PA, which were two states that Dukakis should have won given Reagan's weakness there in '84.

Thoughts?


Title: Re: Describe a 1984 Mondale voter, and a 1988 Bush voter
Post by: TheElectoralBoobyPrize on August 04, 2019, 10:37:08 pm
Maybe in the South? I donít think there was much swing in some of those states.


Title: Re: Describe a 1984 Mondale voter, and a 1988 Bush voter
Post by: darklordoftech on August 04, 2019, 10:41:11 pm
You answered your own question, but there could have been #neverReagan Republicans.


Title: Re: Describe a 1984 Mondale voter, and a 1988 Bush voter
Post by: morgieb on August 04, 2019, 11:38:57 pm
Remember though Reagan also did amazingly in the suburbs. IIRC in most of the suburban counties there was a Dukakis swing.

ElectoralBoobyPrize is right in that there was little swing in parts of the South (and in Tennessee Mondale did better). I don't get why they'd vote Mondale but not Dukakis though. Maybe Southern pride (even though Bush was a Southerner in name only)?


Title: Re: Describe a 1984 Mondale voter, and a 1988 Bush voter
Post by: morgankingsley on August 05, 2019, 02:27:58 am
People who liked Reagan's ideas, but not Reagan


Title: Re: Describe a 1984 Mondale voter, and a 1988 Bush voter
Post by: bagelman on August 05, 2019, 02:52:37 am
Remember though Reagan also did amazingly in the suburbs. IIRC in most of the suburban counties there was a Dukakis swing.

ElectoralBoobyPrize is right in that there was little swing in parts of the South (and in Tennessee Mondale did better). I don't get why they'd vote Mondale but not Dukakis though. Maybe Southern pride (even though Bush was a Southerner in name only)?

Yellow dog decay and Wille Horton.


Title: Re: Describe a 1984 Mondale voter, and a 1988 Bush voter
Post by: darklordoftech on August 05, 2019, 01:37:07 pm
My grandfather left his ballot blank in 1984 because he saw Reagan as a Goldwaterite, but then voted for Bush in 1988 and 1992.

Anyway, a pro-establishment voter who thought Bush was smarter than Reagan and more qualified than Reagan or Dukakis.


Title: Re: Describe a 1984 Mondale voter, and a 1988 Bush voter
Post by: TheElectoralBoobyPrize on August 06, 2019, 05:50:00 pm
Were there any counties that voted this way? Obviously, Tennessee would be the place to look.

Mondale wouldn't appeal to the South EXCEPT for the fact that he was VP to a southern president, who had only been out of office for four years in 1984. By 1988, these same conservative Democrats may not have been willing to give Dukakis the benefit of the doubt.

Just a theory...


Title: Re: Describe a 1984 Mondale voter, and a 1988 Bush voter
Post by: Bern Notice on August 14, 2019, 04:17:28 pm
My aunt hated Reagan (because she hated Nancy) and said she never voted for him, but said Bush Sr. was her favorite President, so I guess she would qualify.


Title: Re: Describe a 1984 Mondale voter, and a 1988 Bush voter
Post by: morgankingsley on August 15, 2019, 06:20:48 am
My aunt hated Reagan (because she hated Nancy) and said she never voted for him, but said Bush Sr. was her favorite President, so I guess she would qualify.

That's a little random


Title: Re: Describe a 1984 Mondale voter, and a 1988 Bush voter
Post by: sg0508 on August 24, 2019, 11:44:10 pm
It's amazing how the Law & Order issue really seemed to kill Dukakis badly, and likely cost him MD and PA at a minimum, in addition to perhaps IL and maybe MO too.


Title: Re: Describe a 1984 Mondale voter, and a 1988 Bush voter
Post by: morgankingsley on September 05, 2019, 06:28:27 am
It's amazing how the Law & Order issue really seemed to kill Dukakis badly, and likely cost him MD and PA at a minimum, in addition to perhaps IL and maybe MO too.

PA and IL easily, probably MD, I don't know about MO. But still that would have put him to 170


Title: Re: Describe a 1984 Mondale voter, and a 1988 Bush voter
Post by: darklordoftech on September 09, 2019, 11:58:43 pm
The fairness doctrine was still in effect in 1984, so its absence could have resulted in the crime issue being presented in a one-sided matter in 1988.