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Title: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 08, 2019, 06:25:16 PM I wanted to experiment by devising a Senate that still has 100 seats but equally represents populations. This plan would allow as many Senators from each state as the percentage of the state's overall US population and would allow combinations of states. This is how it sets up. I would do this based on the projected 2020 populations. I'm going to follow up with a post on each state, how it voted in the past and predict a potential senate election based on the senate district.
California - 12 Texas + Louisiana - 10 Florida + Alabama - 8 New York - 6 Ohio + Kenucky - 5 Illinois - 4 Pennsylvania - 4 Washington + Oregon + Hawaii - 4 Georgia - 3 North Carolina - 3 Michigan - 3 New Jersey - 3 Virginia + West Virginia - 3 Arizona + New Mexico - 3 Massachusetts - 2 Tennessee - 2 Indiana - 2 Missouri - 2 Wisconsin - 2 Colorado - 2 Minnesota - 2 South Carolina - 2 Maryland + Delaware + DC - 2 Oklahoma - 1 Utah - 1 Iowa - 1 Nevada - 1 Arkansas - 1 Mississippi - 1 Kansas - 1 Connecticut + Rhode Island - 1 Nebraska + North Dakota + South Dakota + Wyoming - 1 Alaska + Idaho + Montana - 1 Maine + New Hampshire + Vermont - 1 This is by no means a professionally created scheme, just doing this for fun. () Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 08, 2019, 06:36:05 PM Arkansas
Population: 3,013,825 2012 President Romney: 647,744 (60.6%) Obama: 394,409 (36.9%) 2016 President Trump: 684,872 (60.6%) Clinton: 380,494 (33.7%) 2018 House Republicans: 556,339 (62.6%) Democrats: 312,978 (35.2%) 2020 Senate Election Republican Primary Tom Cotton (i): 53% John Boozman (i): 35% Others: 18% General Election Tom Cotton: 61% Some Guy: 34% Rating: Safe R Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 08, 2019, 06:44:05 PM Iowa
Population: 3,156,145 2012 President Obama: 822,544 (52.0%) Romney: 730,617 (46.2%) 2016 President Trump: 800,983 (51.1%) Clinton: 653,669 (41.7%) 2018 House Democrats: 664,676 (50.5%) Republicans: 612,338 (46.5%) 2020 Senate Election Chuck Grassley retires, Joni Ernst wins Republican primary General election Joni Ernst: 54% Theresa Greenfield: 44% Rating: Likely R Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: cvparty on August 08, 2019, 07:59:12 PM is every senator elected at large or are there districts like in state senates?
Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: Epaminondas on August 09, 2019, 03:18:15 AM That's a great idea.
My back of the enveloppe estimation, using proportional allotment, yields 51-49 to the GOP. Interestingly, the Senate is still a dead heat with this new mapping. Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 09, 2019, 06:22:08 AM is every senator elected at large or are there districts like in state senates? There are districts among the areas that are allotted more than 1 senator. I just did Iowa and Arkansas so far which are exactly the same. Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 09, 2019, 08:03:49 AM Kansas
Population: 2,911,505 2012 President Romney: 692,634 (59.7%) Obama: 440,726 (38.0%) 2016 President Trump: 671,018 (56.7%) Clinton: 427,005 (36.1%) 2018 House Republicans: 563,190 (53.6%) Democrats: 464,380 (44.2%) 2020 Senate Election Republican Primary Jerry Moran (i): 52% Kris Kobach: 30% Others: 18% General Election Jerry Moran: 57% Nancy Boyda: 39% Rating: Safe R Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 09, 2019, 08:10:03 AM Mississippi
Population: 2,986,530 2012 President Romney: 710,746 (55.3%) Obama: 562,949 (43.8%) 2016 President Trump: 700,714 (57.9%) Clinton: 485,131 (40.1%) 2018 House Republicans: 471,162 (50.2%) Democrats: 398,770 (42.5%) 2020 Senate Election Republican Primary Roger Wicker (i): 59% Cindy-Hyde Smith (i): 39% General Election Roger Wicker: 58% Some Guy: 40% Rating: Safe R Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 09, 2019, 08:17:04 AM Nevada
Population: 3,034,392 2012 President Obama: 531,373 (52.4%) Romney: 463,567 (45.7%) 2016 President Clinton: 539,260 (47.9%) Trump: 512,058 (45.5%) 2018 House Democrats: 491,272 (51.1%) Republicans: 439,727 (45.8%) 2022 Senate Election Democratic Primary Catherine Cortez-Masto (i): 53% Jacky Rosen (i): 47% General Election Catherine Cortez-Masto: 50% Adam Laxalt: 46% Rating: Lean D Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 09, 2019, 08:21:55 AM Oklahoma
Population: 3,943,079 2012 President Romney: 891,325 (66.8%) Obama: 443,547 (33.2%) 2016 President Trump: 949,136 (65.3%) Clinton: 420,375 (28.9%) 2018 House Republicans: 730,531 (62.0%) Democrats: 428,452 (36.3%) 2020 Senate Election Inhofe retires. General Election James Lankford: 67% Some Guy: 31% Rating: Safe R Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 09, 2019, 08:29:03 AM Utah
Population: 3,161,105 2012 President Romney: 740,600 (72.8%) Obama: 251,813 (24.7%) 2016 President Trump: 515,231 (45.5%) Clinton: 310,676 (27.5%) McMullin: 243,690 (21.5%) 2018 House Republicans: 617,307 (58.7%) Democrats: 374,009 (35.5%) 2022 Senate Election Romney works out a deal with Lee, retires. General Election Mike Lee: 64% Ben McAdams: 34% Rating: Safe R Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 09, 2019, 08:41:40 AM Connecticut
() Population: 4,629,980 2012 President Obama: 1,184,760 (59.1%) Romney: 792,096 (39.5%) 2016 President Clinton: 1,150,097 (54.5%) Trump: 853,758 (40.5%) 2018 House Democrats: 1,091,916 (62.3%) Republicans: 650,359 (37.1%) 2022 Senate Election Jack Reed retires. Democratic Primary Chris Murphy (i): 38% Richard Blumenthal (i): 30% Sheldon Whitehouse (i): 20% General Election Chris Murphy: 57% Some Guy: 42% Rating: Safe D Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 09, 2019, 08:59:23 AM New Hampshire
() Population: 3,321,161 2012 President Obama: 970,106 (56.3%) Romney: 714,892 (41.5%) 2016 President Clinton: 884,834 (49.0%) Trump: 776,752 (43.0%) 2018 House Democrats: 842,451 (57.5%) Republicans: 570,509 (38.9%) 2020 Senate Election Leahy and King retire. Democratic Primary Bernie Sanders (i): 37% Jeane Shaheen (i): 34% Maggie Hassan (i): 26% Republican Primary Susan Collins (i): 55% Chris Sununu: 43% General Election Bernie Sanders: 51% Susan Collins: 47% Rating: Likely D Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on August 09, 2019, 03:04:59 PM Why combine FL & AL, TX & LA, etc?
Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: cvparty on August 09, 2019, 09:57:51 PM Why combine FL & AL, TX & LA, etc? Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: Epaminondas on August 12, 2019, 02:24:45 PM Are you not continuing, @ElectionsGuy?
This thread is intriguing. Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: jimrtex on August 12, 2019, 07:09:34 PM I wanted to experiment by devising a Senate that still has 100 seats but equally represents populations. This plan would allow as many Senators from each state as the percentage of the state's overall US population and would allow combinations of states. This is how it sets up. I would do this based on the projected 2020 populations. I'm going to follow up with a post on each state, how it voted in the past and predict a potential senate election based on the senate district. California - 12 Texas + Louisiana - 10 Florida + Alabama - 8 New York - 6 Ohio + Kenucky - 5 Illinois - 4 Pennsylvania - 4 Washington + Oregon + Hawaii - 4 Georgia - 3 North Carolina - 3 Michigan - 3 New Jersey - 3 Virginia + West Virginia - 3 Arizona + New Mexico - 3 Massachusetts - 2 Tennessee - 2 Indiana - 2 Missouri - 2 Wisconsin - 2 Colorado - 2 Minnesota - 2 South Carolina - 2 Maryland + Delaware + DC - 2 Oklahoma - 1 Utah - 1 Iowa - 1 Nevada - 1 Arkansas - 1 Mississippi - 1 Kansas - 1 Connecticut + Rhode Island - 1 Nebraska + North Dakota + South Dakota + Wyoming - 1 Alaska + Idaho + Montana - 1 Maine + New Hampshire + Vermont - 1 This is by no means a professionally created scheme, just doing this for fun. () While I was doing my North Dakota legislative history, I had figured out a comparable congressional redistricting. Under the (original) North Dakota constitution, it was invalid to attach part of a county to another county (whole or part of). This resulted in three types of senate districts: (a) Part of a large county (must be whole number of districts in county). (b) A single whole county. (c) Two or more contiguous whole counties. Representatives were apportioned to the senate districts and elected at large. The number of senators in North Dakota was similar to the number of counties (49 districts vs. 53 counties) so that in a largely rural North Dakota a whole-county senate district was normative. To give a comparable model for my Congress, there are 50 senators and 150 representatives.
On a raw basis, California would be entitled to 6 districts, but I didn't find a way to draw other districts and produce 50 total. The goal was to have all districts between 2/3 and 4/3. Overall the relative standard deviation is 15.13%. Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 13, 2019, 12:54:10 PM Are you not continuing, @ElectionsGuy? This thread is intriguing. No, I will continue, but right now I'm drawing all the districts in DRA 2020. I got a final in two days too so I might not post in this thread again until next week. Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: Storr on August 13, 2019, 04:08:29 PM A few nights ago I was trying to think of a change in the Senate that smaller states might be okay or even supportive of. What came to mind was giving the largest states an additional Senate seat. In this system small states still have much more power/influence/representation in the Senate than in the House, but large states would have representation more fitting their large populations than they previously had in the Senate. Of course representation would still be very skewed (only 3 Senators for the 40 million people in California for example), but I was trying to think of an idea that doesn't completely revamp the current Senate setup. This would also keep the class (I,II, and III) system in the Senate intact with the new seats put in the class each large state currently doesn't have a Senator in. What I haven't decided on is what the 'cutoff' for a third seat would be. >3.00% of the total US population would result in 10 new Senate seats. >10 million people would result in 9 new seats (with Michigan currently 5,000 people away from 10M as of 2018, it should reach it in the near future, leading to 10 new seats). >20 million people would result in 3 new seats (New York being at 19.5M, so it may reach 20M at some point). I personally don't like the idea of simply having a Top 10,15, etc. But, that could definitely work as well.
Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 14, 2019, 02:04:43 PM I just finished my district planning for every area. I did deviations of no more than 5% of district populations and kept counties whole whenever possible. I tried to keep whole metropolitan areas intact within states but sometimes it was a challenge, such as with Tennessee, but still, I think most of these look pretty good and I was really surprised that I didn't have to split that many counties. Right now, I'm a little unhappy with how the D/FW area turned out so I may change that up but otherwise it's pretty much finalized.
() Grey = split county Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: rpryor03 on August 16, 2019, 09:01:11 PM Great thought experiment, EG!
Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 22, 2019, 09:50:06 AM Nebraska
() Population: 4,149,317 2012 President Romney: 1,044,799 (60.4%) Obama: 641,233 (37.1%) 2016 President Trump: 1,114,895 (61.4%) Clinton: 551,683 (30.4%) 2018 House Republicans: 956,303 (61.5%) Democrats: 559,806 (36.0%) 2020 Senate Election Republican Primary Ben Sasse (i): 29% John Thune (i): 25% Kevin Cramer (i): 18% John Barasso (i): 15% General Election Ben Sasse: 64% Kara Eastman: 33% Rating: Safe R Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 22, 2019, 10:09:31 AM Idaho
() () Population: 3,553,951 2012 President Romney: 853,515 (59.4%) Obama: 537,266 (37.4%) 2016 President Trump: 851,682 (56.6%) Clinton: 483,928 (32.1%) 2018 House Republicans: 774,433 (56.0%) Democrats: 571,786 (41.4%) 2020 Senate Election Republican Primary Steve Daines (i): 35% Mike Crapo (i): 30% Dan Sullivan (i): 19% General Election Steve Daines: 59% Mike Cooney: 39% Rating: Safe R Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 22, 2019, 10:32:30 AM South Carolina
() SC S01 Population (2016 est.): 2,428,963 2016 President Trump: 604,081 (57.7%) Clinton: 392,655 (37.5%) 2020 Senate Election Lindsey Graham: 59% Democratic candidate: 39% 12/16 PVI: R+11 Rating: Safe R SC S02 Population (2016 est.): 2,405,642 2016 President Trump: 551,308 (52.2%) Clinton: 462,718 (43.8%) 2022 Senate Election Tim Scott: 55% Joe Cunningham: 44% 12/16 PVI: R+5 Rating: Likely R Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 22, 2019, 10:59:24 AM Minnesota
() MN S01 Population (2016 est.): 2,742,189 2016 President Clinton: 860,095 (56.8%) Trump: 520,014 (34.3%) 2024 Senate Election Klobuchar: 67% Someone: 30% 12/16 PVI: D+9 Rating: Safe D MN S02 Population (2016 est.): 2,708,679 2016 President Trump: 802,937 (55.2%) Clinton: 507,621 (34.9%) 2020 Senate Election Pete Stauber: 57% Dan Feehan: 41% 12/16 PVI: R+8 Rating: Safe R Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 22, 2019, 11:19:46 AM Colorado
() CO S01 Population (2016 est.): 2,696,445 2016 President Clinton: 750,159 (54.3%) Trump: 514,842 (37.2%) 2022 Senate Election Michael Bennet: 59% Someone: 38% 12/16 PVI: D+7 Rating: Safe D CO S02 Population (2016 est.): 2,662,850 2016 President Trump: 687,540 (49.2%) Clinton: 588,711 (42.1%) 2020 Senate Election Cory Gardner: 53% Joe Neguse: 44% 12/16 PVI: R+4 Rating: Likely R Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 22, 2019, 11:35:34 AM Wisconsin
() WI S01 Population (2016 est.): 2,862,279 2016 President Trump: 696,844 (47.9%) Clinton: 666,263 (45.8%) 2022 Senate Election Scott Walker: 52% Chris Larson: 46% 12/16 PVI: R+2 Rating: Lean R WI S02 Population (2016 est.): 2,892,519 2016 President Clinton: 714,015 (47.1%) Trump: 706,164 (46.5%) 2024 Senate Election Tammy Baldwin: 53% Sean Duffy: 46% 12/16 PVI: D+2 Rating: Lean D Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: Vern on August 25, 2019, 09:15:37 PM I love this so much. :)
Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 26, 2019, 07:25:42 PM Missouri
() MO S01 Population (2016 est.): 3,024,371 2016 President Trump: 765,012 (53.7%) Clinton: 593,805 (41.6%) 2022 Senate Election Ann Wagner: 54% Nicole Galloway: 45% 12/16 PVI: R+5 Rating: Safe R MO S02 Population (2016 est.): 3,035,280 2016 President Trump: 829,499 (59.1%) Clinton: 477,263 (34.0%) 2024 Senate Election Josh Hawley: 60% Chris Koster: 36% 12/16 PVI: R+13 Rating: Safe R Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 26, 2019, 07:40:37 PM Tennessee
() TN S01 Population (2016 est.): 3,263,137 2016 President Trump: 640,175 (51.3%) Clinton: 550,933 (44.1%) 2024 Senate Election Marsha Blackburn: 50% Phil Bredesen: 46% 12/16 PVI: R+4 Rating: Likely R TN S02 Population (2016 est.): 3,284,872 2016 President Trump: 882,704 (70.1%) Clinton: 319,743 (25.4%) 2020 Senate Election Tim Burchett: 72% No name: 25% 12/16 PVI: R+23 Rating: Titanium R Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 26, 2019, 08:06:39 PM Massachusetts
() () MA S01 Population (2016 est.): 3,373,507 2016 President Clinton: 953,523 (57.0%) Trump: 589,814 (35.3%) 2024 Senate Election Seth Moulton: 58% Republican: 40% 12/16 PVI: D+9 Rating: Safe D MA S02 Population (2016 est.): 3,368,636 2016 President Clinton: 1,041,673 (63.1%) Trump: 501,079 (30.3%) 2020 Senate Election Democratic Primary Joe Kennedy: 49% Ed Markey (i): 45% General Election Joe Kennedy: 65% Geoff Diehl: 33% 12/16 PVI: D+14 Rating: Safe D Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: Sol on August 26, 2019, 08:29:05 PM Very nice project!
A couple nitpicks--why not put Alaska with Washington? It's definitely the lower 48 state which has the most in common with it. Why not do a Boston vs. Not-Boston in mass? Title: Re: A More Equal Senate Post by: Politician on August 27, 2019, 08:41:37 AM Phil Bredesen would have won last year in West TN.
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