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Title: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: SnowLabrador on August 11, 2019, 08:57:57 AM Is there a megathread for OK-5 right now? If not, this is the title I came up with.
It'll for sure be the most watched race in the state, as Kendra Horn (D) fights for a second term. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: terp40hitch on August 11, 2019, 09:00:49 AM Lean R
Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: 136or142 on August 11, 2019, 10:27:22 AM This district is based in Oklahoma City which has been trending Democratic for some time anyway. Certainly Lean D. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Young Conservative on August 11, 2019, 11:00:25 AM This district is based in Oklahoma City which has been trending Democratic for some time anyway. Certainly Lean D. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Politician on August 11, 2019, 11:11:48 AM Wait would Atlas be calling a Clinton +13 district where Trump got a lower % than Romney, but voted for the Republican governor candidate by 9% as the state became 24% less Republican and elected a Republican congressperson on their coattails Lean R?
Just asking. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on August 11, 2019, 11:18:19 AM 🤷🏻♂️
Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 11, 2019, 11:20:29 AM People keep forgetting that Edmondson carried this district by 10 points while he was losing statewide by 12. Horn's win wasn't an anomaly, the voters are clearly willing to vote Democratic downballot.
Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Gracile on August 11, 2019, 11:33:24 AM Horn is certainly the underdog here, but I can see her possibly keeping her loss respectable (mid-single digits or so).
Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Dr Oz Lost Party! on August 11, 2019, 11:42:54 AM People should underestimate Horn at their caution. Her win wasn’t on anybody’s radar in 2018, and she represents a district with parts of OKC and its suburbs... all things that trended Democrat, just like suburbs and cities everywhere else in the nation.
Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: terp40hitch on August 11, 2019, 12:21:36 PM This district is based in Oklahoma City which has been trending Democratic for some time anyway. Certainly Lean D. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: ON Progressive on August 11, 2019, 12:52:35 PM This district is based in Oklahoma City which has been trending Democratic for some time anyway. Certainly Lean D. Kendra Horn can definitely win in a less than D+6 year. Her district is trending D at a good clip and that can make up for a weaker national environment. Someone on Atlas of all forums should know that uniform swing isn't a thing. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Pandaguineapig on August 11, 2019, 01:05:47 PM Lean R, Trump will still likely win this seat by close to 10 points and Bice is close to the best Republican candidate for this seat. Still this seat is almost certainly a rental for whoever wins as the seat is gonna get nuked in 2022
Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Fmr. Gov. NickG on August 11, 2019, 01:09:28 PM This district is based in Oklahoma City which has been trending Democratic for some time anyway. Certainly Lean D. It’s been going Democratic but it is far from a Democratic district, it’s R+10 and Horn only won by one point in a D+7 year so its far from Lean D unless you are excepting a D+6 year which is unlikely in a presidential year. Why is D+6 unlikely because it’s a presidential year? 2008 was D+11. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: 😥 on August 11, 2019, 01:09:44 PM Tossup/Tilt D
Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: beesley on August 11, 2019, 01:10:59 PM Isn't Bice polling and fundraising behind someone else now? Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Rookie Yinzer on August 11, 2019, 02:25:06 PM Wait would Atlas be calling a Clinton +13 district where Trump got a lower % than Romney, but voted for the Republican governor candidate by 9% as the state became 24% less Republican and elected a Republican congressperson on their coattails Lean R? Just asking. The suburbs are trending D. Get over it. Tilt R/Toss-Up Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Yellowhammer on August 11, 2019, 05:15:15 PM Likely R, and that’s being generous to Horn.
Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: BuckeyeNut on August 11, 2019, 05:18:13 PM Lean D.
Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: lfromnj on August 11, 2019, 05:19:43 PM Lean R, its still pretty Republican and isn't trending that blue etc but I wouldn't be shocked if Kendra Horn becomes Rod Blum 2.0 either.
Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: terp40hitch on August 11, 2019, 08:16:23 PM Wait would Atlas be calling a Clinton +13 district where Trump got a lower % than Romney, but voted for the Republican governor candidate by 9% as the state became 24% less Republican and elected a Republican congressperson on their coattails Lean R? Just asking. The suburbs are trending D. Get over it. Tilt R/Toss-Up Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: morgieb on August 11, 2019, 08:20:08 PM People keep forgetting that Edmondson carried this district by 10 points while he was losing statewide by 12. Horn's win wasn't an anomaly, the voters are clearly willing to vote Democratic downballot. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Frenchrepublican on August 12, 2019, 05:57:11 AM They give Trump a 58% favourability rate (statewide), it seems quite low considering that in 2016 he won 2/3 of the vote. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: wbrocks67 on August 12, 2019, 06:01:31 AM The suburbs are only getting bluer, so for anyone to have this as anything but a tossup doesn't make much sense.
Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Frenchrepublican on August 12, 2019, 06:11:16 AM As of now I would rate this district as Tilt R / tossup
Two points On the one hand Trump won this district by double digits in 2016 and even if this district will probably trend D in 2020, Trump will likely win it again by a big margin ; on the other hand this district is very urban/suburban and Oklahoma County is one of the few place in the state where democrats have a true growth potential. Concerning 2020, it's clear that Horn is vulnerable, republicans have a bunch of good candidates, Horn is not a conservative democrat by most standards, Trump will likely give some coattails effects to the republican candidate, but Horn is still more likely to win than Peterson or Brindisi Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Strudelcutie4427 on August 12, 2019, 06:11:51 AM The suburbs are only getting bluer, so for anyone to have this as anything but a tossup doesn't make much sense. She won’t have a lazy opponent this time and OKC is getting chopped post 2020 Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: jamestroll on August 12, 2019, 06:19:17 AM As of now I would rate this district as Tilt R / tossup Two points On the one hand Trump won this district by double digits in 2016 and even if this district will probably trend D in 2020, Trump will likely win it again by a big margin ; on the other hand this district is very urban/suburban and Oklahoma County is one of the few place in the state where democrats have a true growth potential. Concerning 2020, it's clear that Horn is vulnerable, republicans have a bunch of good candidates, Horn is not a conservative democrat by most standards, Trump will likely give some coattails effects to the republican candidate, but Horn is still more likely to win than Peterson or Brindisi This times 1000! It would not be stunning if within a decade if Oklahoma County begins to vote double digits for the Democrats for local and statewide races and consistently for Democratic presidential candidates. It may end up being the Oklahoma Democratic party. I disagree with Peterson being dead on arrival that some on the forum think but I am thinking Kendra Horn has a slightly better chance at re-election. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Gass3268 on August 12, 2019, 10:17:35 AM Trumps approval is at -17 in OK-05 (https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://nondoc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Q2_Final_SoonerPoll2019.pdf&hl=en)
41% Approve 58% Disapprove [see page 58 in the link] Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort on August 12, 2019, 11:51:48 AM Trumps approval is at -17 in OK-05 (https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://nondoc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Q2_Final_SoonerPoll2019.pdf&hl=en) 41% Approve 58% Disapprove [see page 58 in the link] Glorious news. Kickass Kendra ain't going down without a fight. Lean D. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: lfromnj on August 12, 2019, 12:40:18 PM Trumps approval is at -17 in OK-05 (https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://nondoc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Q2_Final_SoonerPoll2019.pdf&hl=en) 41% Approve 58% Disapprove [see page 58 in the link] Glorious news. Kickass Kendra ain't going down without a fight. Lean D. Its a sub 100 size sample lol. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: terp40hitch on August 12, 2019, 01:47:32 PM The suburbs are only getting bluer, so for anyone to have this as anything but a tossup doesn't make much sense. Suburbs are turning more blue if we follow the trends of the past two election cycles but winning a pretty red district in midterms is much different then winning when the presidents on the ballot and when you have challengers that can win back some suburban votes (middle aged, white, women) so it’s not so crazy to say Horns district is Lean R. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: YE on August 12, 2019, 01:52:20 PM The suburbs are only getting bluer, so for anyone to have this as anything but a tossup doesn't make much sense. Suburbs are turning more blue if we follow the trends of the past two election cycles but winning a pretty red district in midterms is much different then winning when the presidents on the ballot and when you have challengers that can win back some suburban votes (middle aged, white, women) so it’s not so crazy to say Horns district is Lean R. The thing is in the age of rising polarization, they can't. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: OSR stands with Israel on August 13, 2019, 01:27:38 AM Wait would Atlas be calling a Clinton +13 district where Trump got a lower % than Romney, but voted for the Republican governor candidate by 9% as the state became 24% less Republican and elected a Republican congressperson on their coattails Lean R? Just asking. The suburbs are trending D. Get over it. Tilt R/Toss-Up Yah this Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: YE on August 13, 2019, 01:32:17 AM Wait would Atlas be calling a Clinton +13 district where Trump got a lower % than Romney, but voted for the Republican governor candidate by 9% as the state became 24% less Republican and elected a Republican congressperson on their coattails Lean R? Just asking. The suburbs are trending D. Get over it. Tilt R/Toss-Up Last time I checked Donald Trump is still in office and will still be in the 2020 election. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: InheritTheWind on August 13, 2019, 04:04:00 PM Toss Up, but slightly closer to Lean D than Lean R.
Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Gass3268 on August 13, 2019, 04:07:34 PM The suburbs are only getting bluer, so for anyone to have this as anything but a tossup doesn't make much sense. Suburbs are turning more blue if we follow the trends of the past two election cycles but winning a pretty red district in midterms is much different then winning when the presidents on the ballot and when you have challengers that can win back some suburban votes (middle aged, white, women) so it’s not so crazy to say Horns district is Lean R. So it will be worse? Polling shows Trump is very unpopular in this district, Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Young Conservative on August 13, 2019, 06:50:48 PM The suburbs are only getting bluer, so for anyone to have this as anything but a tossup doesn't make much sense. Suburbs are turning more blue if we follow the trends of the past two election cycles but winning a pretty red district in midterms is much different then winning when the presidents on the ballot and when you have challengers that can win back some suburban votes (middle aged, white, women) so it’s not so crazy to say Horns district is Lean R. So it will be worse? Polling shows Trump is very unpopular in this district, Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 13, 2019, 06:58:31 PM The suburbs are only getting bluer, so for anyone to have this as anything but a tossup doesn't make much sense. Suburbs are turning more blue if we follow the trends of the past two election cycles but winning a pretty red district in midterms is much different then winning when the presidents on the ballot and when you have challengers that can win back some suburban votes (middle aged, white, women) so it’s not so crazy to say Horns district is Lean R. So it will be worse? Polling shows Trump is very unpopular in this district, Seriously, it's posted at the top of this page. ::) Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: ON Progressive on August 13, 2019, 08:29:15 PM Wait would Atlas be calling a Clinton +13 district where Trump got a lower % than Romney, but voted for the Republican governor candidate by 9% as the state became 24% less Republican and elected a Republican congressperson on their coattails Lean R? Just asking. The suburbs are trending D. Get over it. Tilt R/Toss-Up Suburbs have actually been trending D for a long time, it's not just a 2016 thing. There's a few examples I could use, but I'll just use Oklahoma County since it's relevant to the thread. Oklahoma County, OK: 2004 - Bush +28 (R+26) 2008 - McCain +16 (R+23) 2012 - Romney +16 (R+20) 2016 - Trump +11 (R+14) It was already slowly trending Democratic during the Obama years, it was just accelerated by Trump. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: here2view on August 14, 2019, 08:51:37 AM Lean R. I think Horn is in a better position than Cunningham however. She can absolutely win re-election.
Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Gass3268 on August 14, 2019, 09:07:14 AM The suburbs are only getting bluer, so for anyone to have this as anything but a tossup doesn't make much sense. Suburbs are turning more blue if we follow the trends of the past two election cycles but winning a pretty red district in midterms is much different then winning when the presidents on the ballot and when you have challengers that can win back some suburban votes (middle aged, white, women) so it’s not so crazy to say Horns district is Lean R. So it will be worse? Polling shows Trump is very unpopular in this district, Trumps approval is at -17 in OK-05 (https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://nondoc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Q2_Final_SoonerPoll2019.pdf&hl=en) 41% Approve 58% Disapprove [see page 58 in the link] Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: beesley on August 14, 2019, 11:02:19 AM Lean R. I think Horn is in a better position than Cunningham however. She can absolutely win re-election. Curious to know if you think that because Horn is a better incumbent or because the seat is riper. Not saying I disagree. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: here2view on August 14, 2019, 08:30:00 PM Lean R. I think Horn is in a better position than Cunningham however. She can absolutely win re-election. Curious to know if you think that because Horn is a better incumbent or because the seat is riper. Not saying I disagree. They're both R+10 seats where Trump won by about 14%. OK-05 isn't as white as SC-01, and it's also more urban I believe. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: terp40hitch on August 14, 2019, 10:07:16 PM Wait would Atlas be calling a Clinton +13 district where Trump got a lower % than Romney, but voted for the Republican governor candidate by 9% as the state became 24% less Republican and elected a Republican congressperson on their coattails Lean R? Just asking. The suburbs are trending D. Get over it. Tilt R/Toss-Up Last time I checked Donald Trump is still in office and will still be in the 2020 election. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: beesley on August 17, 2019, 01:34:13 AM So Terry Neese has raised the most money. I wonder if she or Stephanie Bice will win the primary.
Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Flyersfan232 on September 01, 2019, 06:06:51 AM This district is based in Oklahoma City which has been trending Democratic for some time anyway. Certainly Lean D. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: HarrisonL on September 01, 2019, 01:04:52 PM Tossup.
Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on September 01, 2019, 05:25:21 PM This district is based in Oklahoma City which has been trending Democratic for some time anyway. Certainly Lean D. Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: President Punxsutawney Phil on September 01, 2019, 05:28:08 PM There is a big difference between D-trending (which OK-05 most definitely is), and D-leaning.
Title: Re: OK-5: Horn of Life Post by: Gracile on October 10, 2019, 02:19:04 PM Former Oklahoma City mayor Mick Cornett (R) has ruled himself out. This is mild good news for Horn who faces a tough reelection fight:
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