Talk Elections

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Mine :

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Competitive races :

MN : 55/44 D
CO : 53/46 D
MI : 52/47 D
AZ : 50/48 D

ME : very close but Collins prevails
NC : 50/48 R
GA : 53/46 R
IA : 55/43 R
AL : 58/40 R

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GOP 53-45-2.  Not net change.

Competitive races:

Alabama:  Byrne 58, Jones 41
Arizona:  McSally 50, Kelly 48
Colorado:  Hickenlooper 53, Gardner 45
Georgia:  Perdue 52, Tomlinson 47
Kansas:  Kobach 51, Boyda 45
Kentucky:  McConnell 58, McGrath 41
Maine:  Collins 55, Gideon 43
Michigan:  Peters 50, James 48
North Carolina:  Tillis 51, Cunningham 46

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AL: Tommy Tuberville 55, Doug Jones 43
AK: Dan Sullivan 52, Al Gross 45
AZ: Mark Kelly 51, Martha McSally 47
AR: Tom Cotton 62, Josh Mahony 36
CO: John Hickenlooper 55, Cory Gardner 43
DE: Chris Coons 60, Tom Kovach 37
GA: David Perdue 50, Teresa Tomlinson 47
ID: Jim Risch 63, Nancy Harris 35
IL: Dick Durbin 56, Mark Curran 42
IA: Joni Ernst 51, Theresa Greenfield 47
KS: Kris Kobach 49, Nancy Boyda 46
KY: Mitch McConnell 54, Matt Jones 44
LA: Bill Cassidy 58, Leading Dem 39
ME: Sara Gideon 50, Susan Collins 50
MA: Joe Kennedy 64, Shiva Ayyadauri 32
MI: Gary Peters 53, John James 45
MN: Tina Smith 55, Jason Lewis 43
MS: Cindy Hyde Smith 54, Mike Espy 44
MT: Steve Daines 53, John Mues 45
NE: Ben Sasse 59, Chris Beutler 39
NH: Jeanne Shaheen 56, Corey Lewandowski 41
NJ: Cory Booker 58, Kim Guadango 40
NM: Ben Ray Lujan 57, Mick Rich 39
NC: Cal Cunningham 49, Thom Tillis 48
OK: Jim Inhofe 64, Mike Workman 33
OR: Jeff Merkley 58, Leading Rep 39
RI: Jack Reed 66, Leading Rep 30
SC: Lindsey Graham 53, Jaime Harrison 45
SD: Mike Rounds 60, Leading Dem 37
TN: Bill Hagerty 62, James Mackler 36
TX: John Cornyn 52, MJ Hegar 46
VA: Mark Warner 55, Scott Taylor 42
WV: Shelley Moore Capito 66, Paula Jean Swearangin 32
WY: Cynthia Lummis 65, Leading Dem 32

This is impossible. One has to win Maine with more than 50% because of RCV.

Barry Grissom was key to flipping Senate, he went the same way of Ted Strickland before the campaign began

Switch AL and CO. Otherwise, It's the senate we have now.

I chose 10 seats to mark as potentially competitive.

AL: 54-44% R
AZ: 51-47% R
CO: 52-47% D
GA: 53-45% R
IA: 55-44% R
KY: 58-40% R
ME: 56-43% R
MI: 50-48% D (Could easily see this one going to James though)
NH: 52-47% D
NC: 51-48% R

https://270towin.com/2020-senate-election/lgAzL2.png

Republicans hold on by a thin margin. Maine is the closest state.

Collins and/or Ernst can very well lose, but AZ isnt LR, like 538 has it, its LD with Kelly

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Georgia splits.

What I hope

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Colorado preferrably someone else than the Hick
New Hampshire preferrably someone else than Shaheen or Lewandowski
West-Virginia hopefully Ojedaland
Kentucky upset defeat hopefully for McConnell. Come on McGrath
Upset wins for Republicans in MN and Mi as long the challenger is decent. John James would be a good senator i guess.
More independents hopefully in Alaska and Maine hopefully. Collins leaving the Republican Party would be great. Kansas hopefully a Democrat or independent as well. Greg Orman?

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FL = GA-special

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An updated prediction. 20% = Tilt. MI is much closer to Likely D than to tossup. NH is much closer to Safe D than to Lean D. MT is much closer to Safe R than to Lean R.

KS will go Dem

Hey MT Treasurer

No, Kobach is too polarizing to be elected

I highly doubt Georgia goes red while Maine goes blue.

KS won't go Dem, hard to see Dems outrunning the presidential performance by enough to win there, and gubernatorial elections are different to Senate elections.

I moved IA to Lean R and MI to Likely D, but otherwise I stand by this.

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AK Gross
AZ Kelly
CO Hickenlooper
GA Tomlinson
KY McGrath
ME Gideon
MA Weld
MA Kennedy
NC Cunningham

The 2020 U.S. Senate Predictions are now open here (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2020/pred.php)

Composite Map:
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Enjoy,
Dave

Im unable to signup to make predictions

I had the same issue, but when i clicked on login while not accepting the private terms, a box showed up above it i agree with terms of use and i agree with accepting the private terms, than it worked. You have to click two boxes.

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Closest Races

ME: Collins 51-49
NC: Tillis 50-48
AZ: Kelly 50-47
GA(S): Collins 52-48
MI: Peters 52-47

Collins is doomed

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Current map with my projected margins in lean and swing states, from most Dem to most Rep.

New Hampshire: +14 Dem
Colorado: +12 Dem
Minnesota: +12 Dem
Virginia: +12 Dem
Michigan: +6 Dem
---
Arizona: +3 Dem
North Carolina: +0.5 Rep
Maine: +1 Rep
Montana: +3 Rep
Iowa: +5 Rep
---
Georgia: +6 Rep
Georgia Special*: +10 Rep
Kansas: +10 Rep
Texas: +12 Rep
Alaska: +14 Rep

* margin of final vote on Jan 5, 2021

June 2020 prediction. I'll make one of these predictions every month or so. Will change with the polls and the general environment, these could be way off come November but it'll be interesting to look back and see how it evolved.

Alabama: 58% Tuberville, 41% Jones
Alaska: 54% Sullivan, 41% Gross
Arizona: 52% Kelly, 46% McSally
Colorado: 53% Hickenlooper, 45% Gardner
Georgia: 52% Perdue, 47% Ossof
Georgia: (Runoff) 51% Collins, 49% Warnock
Iowa: 54% Ernst, 45% Greenfield
Kansas: 57% Marshall, 42% Bollier / 54% Kobach, 45% Bollier
Kentucky: 56% McConnell, 41% McGrath
Maine: 50% Collins, 48% Gideon
Michigan: 51% Peters, 48% James
Minnesota: 52% Smith, 45% Lewis
Mississippi: 55% Hyde-Smith, 44% Espy
Montana: 52% Daines, 46% Bullock
New Hampshire: 54% Shaheen, 44% Republican
North Carolina: 49% Tillis, 49% Cunningham
South Carolina: 54% Graham, 42% Harrison
Texas: 53% Cornyn, 46% Hegar
Virginia: 56% Warner, 43% Republican

Dem pickups: AZ, CO
Rep pickups: AL

D+1. 52-48 R Senate.

My prediction (updated 10/07/20)

AL: (in favor to R)
Tommy Tuberville 54%
Doug Jones 44%
R gain

AK: (no change)
Dan Sullivan 48%
Al Gross 47%

AZ: (in favor to D)
Mark Kelly 55%
Martha McSally 43%
D gain

CO: (no change)
John Hickenlooper 54%
Cory Gardner 44%
D gain

GA-r: (in favor to D)
David Perdue 50.1%
Jon Ossoff 49.9%

GA-s: (no change)
Kelly Loeffler 21%->50.1%
Raphael Warnock 35%->49.9%

IA: (no change)
Theresa Greenfield 50%
Joni Ernst 49%
D gain

KS: (in favor to R)
Roger Marshall 52%
Barbara Bollier 46%

KY: (in favor to R)
Mitch McConnell 59%
Amy McGrath 40%

ME: (no change)
Sara Gideon 54%
Susan Collins 46%
D gain

MI: (no change)
Gary Peters 55%
John James 43%

MN: (no change)
Tina Smith 54%
Jason Lewis 44%

MT: (in favor to R)
Steve Daines 51%
Steve Bullock 49%

NH: (in favor to D)
Jeanne Shaheen 60%
Don Bolduc 39%

NC: (in favor to R)
Cal Cunningham 49.5%
Thom Tillis 49%
D gain

SC: (in favor to D)
Lindsey Graham 49.5%
Jaime Harrison 49%

TX: (no change)
John Cornyn 52%
MJ Hegar 46%

R gain: AL
D gain: AZ, CO, IA, ME, NC
D+4

51-49 D

Tilt D AZ, CO, ME
Tossup AK, GA, IA, KY, MT, NC and SC
Safe R AL, KS with Marshall, TX

Democrats will see a net gain of five seats.  They will win CO, ME, AZ, NC, and both GA seats, but will lose AL.  That will leave them with a 52/48 majority.

Bonus predictions:
2022 - Democrats will see a net gain of two, leaving them with a 54/46 majority.  They'll pick up both PA and NC.

2024 - Democrats will see a net loss of four seats, leaving them with a 50/50 split.  They'll lose WI, OH, MT, and WV.

My current predictions:

Arizona (Special): (D+1)

Mark Kelly (D) 57%
Martha McSally (R) 42%

Georgia (Special) (Runoff)

Doug Collins (R) 52%
Raphael Warnock (D) 48%

Alabama: (R+1)

Tommy Tuberville (R) 61%
Doug Jones (D) 38%

Alaska:

Dan Sullivan (R) 57%
Edgar Blatchford (D) 34%
John Howe (Alaska Independence) 6%
Jed Whittaker (G) 2.7%

Arkansas:

Tom Cotton (R) 91%
Ricky Harrington Jr. (L) 8%

Colorado: (D+2)

John Hickenlooper (D) 53%
Cory Gardner (R) 41%
Dan Doyle (C) 5%
Raymon Doan (L) 0.7%

Delaware:

Chris Coons (D) 67%
James DeMartino (R) 32%
Nadine Frost (L) 0.9%

Georgia: (Runoff) (D+3)

Jon Ossoff (D) 50.7%
David Purdue (R) 49.3%

Idaho:

Jim Risch (R) 71%
Paulette Jordan (D) 26%
Ray Wirtz (C) 3%

Illinois:

Dick Durbin (D) 64%
Mark Curran (R) 33%
Willie Wilson (I) 2.7%

Iowa: (D+4)

Theresa Greenfield (D) 48%
Joni Ernst (R) 47%
Rick Stewart (L) 4.3%

Kansas:

Kris Kobach (R) 49%
Barbara Bollier (D) 46%
Jason Buckley (L) 4.4%

Kentucky (D+5)

Amy McGrath (D) 50%
Mitch McConnell (R) 49%
Brad Barron (L) 1%

Louisiana (Runoff)

Bill Cassidy (R) 69%
Antoine Pierce (D) 31%

Maine: (D+6)

Sara Gideon (D) 51%
Susan Collins (R) 49%

Massachusetts:

Joe Kennedy III (D) 70%
Shiva Ayyadurai (R) 29%

Michigan:

Gary Peters (D) 57%
John James (R) 41%
Anita Belle (G) 1.7%

Minnesota:

Tina Smith (D) 49%
Jason Lewis (R) 48%
Kevin O'Connor (Legal Marijuana Now) 3%

Mississippi:

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 59%
Mike Espy (D) 40.8%

Montana: (D+7)

Steve Bullock (D) 46%
Steve Daines (R) 45%
Susan Good Giese (L) 6%
Wendie Fredrickson (G) 3%

Nebraska:

Ben Sasse (R) 79%
Chris Janicek (D) 19%
Gene Siadek (L)

New Hampshire:

Jeanne Shaheen (D) 52%
Don Bolduc (R) 46%
Justin O'Donnell (L) 2%

New Jersey:

Cory Booker (D) 70%
Hirsh Singh (R) 29%
Madelyn Hoffman (G) 1%

New Mexico:

Ben Ray Lujan (D) 59%
Mark Ronchetti (R) 38%
Bob Walsh (L)

North Carolina: (D+8)

Cal Cunningham (D) 50%
Thom Tillis (R) 44%
Kevin Hayes (C) 3%
Shannon Bray (L) 3%

Oklahoma:

Jim Inhofe (R) 81%
Abby Broyles (D) 28%
Robert Murphy (L) 1%

Oregon:

Jeff Merkely (D) 66%
Jo Rae Perkins (R) 34%

Rhode Island:

Jack Reed (D) 66%
Alan Walters (R) 34%

South Carolina:

Lindsey Graham (R) 49%
Jamie Harrison (D) 47%
Bill Bledsoe 3.7%

South Dakota:

Mike Rounds (R) 74%
Dan Ahlers (D) 26%

Tennessee:

Bill Hagerty (R) 69%
James Mackler (D) 30%

Texas: (D+9)

MJ Hegar (D) 49%
John Cornyn (R) 48%
Wes Benedict (L)

Virginia:

Mark Warner (D) 55%
Daniel Gade (R) 44%

West Virginia:

Shelly Moore Capito (R) 66%
Richard Ojeda (D) 33.5%

Wyoming:

Cynthia Lummis (R) 90%
Merav Ben-David (D) 10%

Mid-June update. Disaster situation for the GOP right now.

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Safe D: 44
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 2
Tilt D: 2 <-- Control is decided here (Biden wins)
Tilt R: 2 <-- Control is decided here (Trump wins)
Lean R: 3
Likely R: 4
Safe R: 41

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 50

Pickups: AL, AZ, CO, ME, NC

AL: 57.0% Republican, 42.0% Jones
AK: 52.0% Sullivan, 43.0% Gross
AZ: 52.5% Kelly, 45.5% McSally
CO: 53.5% Hickenlooper, 44.0% Gardner
GA: 50.0% Perdue, 48.5% Ossoff
GA-S: 50.5% Collins, 49.5% Warnock (Runoff)
IA: 51.5% Ernst, 46.0% Greenfield
KS: 53.0% Kobach, 45.5% Bollier / 55.0% Marshall, 43.5% Bollier
KY: 54.0% McConnell, 43.5% McGrath / 54.5% McConnell, 43.0% Booker
ME: 49.0% Gideon, 48.0% Collins
MI: 52.0% Peters, 46.5% James
MN: 53.5% Smith, 44.0% Lewis
MT: 51.0% Daines, 46.5% Bullock
NC: 49.5% Cunningham, 47.5% Tillis
SC: 53.0% Graham, 44.5% Harrison
TX: 50.5% Cornyn, 47.5% Democrat

Safe D:  These states are guaranteed to vote Democratic.
NM, IL, OR, RI, NJ, DE, MA

Very Likely D: These states will almost certainly vote Democratic; there is a very small but nonzero chance of the Republican winning.
VA

Likely D: These states are probably voting Democratic, but a Republican win is within the realm of possibility.
MN, ME*, CO*, NH

Leans D: The race is competitive, but the Democrat is favored.
MI, AZ*, VP

Tossup: This race is competitive with no clear favorite.
IA, GA, GA-S, NC

Leans R: The race is competitive, but the Republican is favored.
MT, TX, KS

Likely R: These states are probably voting Republican, but a Democratic win is within the realm of possibility.
AL*, AK

Very Likely R: These states will almost certainly vote Republican; there is a very small but nonzero chance of the Democrat winning.
KY, MS, SC

Safe R: These states are guaranteed to vote Republican.
ID, SD, WY, NE, OK, WV, TN, AR, LA

Map Below:

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VP refers to the Vice Presidency, aka how I would rank the Presidential election. As a rule, I never have a state go beyond "Likely" if it would be a pickup. Some states have different rankings based on the victors of upcoming primaries. For those states, I assume the primary victors that would bring the state closest to Tossup. Safe ratings are absolute, so even the slightest ambiguity or uncertainty would dislodge a state from a Safe ranking. I am happy to answer any questions about any strange takes here.

The Senate is a tossup right now, mainly due to the Republicans' numbers advantage and how early we are in the cycle. If Biden is still up by ~9 points in October, the Senate map will look very different.

New poll in TX confirms TX is moving D, basically a tie 47 R 45 D

Safe D AZ, CO Romanoff, DEL, IL, ME, MA Kennedy MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, OR, RI 13
Slight D IA, KS, MT 3
Tossup AK, GA, NC, SC and TX 5
Solid R AL, ID, MS, KY, NEB, OK, SD, WVA, WY 8

My current ratings:

Alabama: Safe R (flip) (Even if Jeff Sessions pulls off a miracle comeback, and Jones and Trump refuse to endorse him, there's still no way Doug Jones wins reelection)

Arizona (special): Likely D (flip) (This is Mark Kelly's race to lose, but this one isn't over yet)
'
Alaska: Likely R (probably the closest to Safe R status of the Likely R incumbents. I don't like Al Gross or Edgar Blatchford's chances much)

Arkansas: Safe R

Colorado: Safe D (flip) (It doesn't really matter if Hickenlooper or Romanoff wins the primary. Cory Gardner is going down regardless. That said, Hickenlooper winning might make the general election uncomfortably close)

Delaware: Safe D

Georgia: Tossup (Jon Ossoff's actually running a very strong campaign. The only thing keeping me from putting this one in the Lean D column is the likelihood that this will go to a runoff)

Georgia (special): Tilt R (While I agree Kelly Loeffler is DOA, none of the Democrats running (Richard Dien Winfield, Matt Lieberman, Ed Tarver, Raphael Warnock are impressing me much. While one of them will make the runoff, whether one of those candidates wins the runoff might depend on whether Biden and Ossoff win Georgia in November, or whether there is a second runoff in the other Senate race instead)

Idaho: Safe R (Paulette Jordan is a strong candidate, but this is Idaho we are talking about here)

Illinois: Safe D

Iowa: Tilt R (Theresa Greenfield's a stronger candidate than she appears, but this race will come down to whether Biden carries Iowa in November-remember he didn't win the Iowa Caucuses)

Kansas: Safe R (Even Kris Kobach should be able to win a Senate election in Kansas)

Kentucky: Lean R (Even if Charles Booker holds on and wins the Democratic Primary, Mitch McConnell is so unpopular that it's plausible he loses)

Louisiana: Safe R (Barring a late entry by Mitch Landrieu or Cedric Richmond, as we haven't hit the filing deadline, Bill Cassidy won't face a serious challenge)

Maine: Lean D (flip) (Susan Collins is in serious political danger, and I've been impressed by Sara Gideon's campaign to this point. Just a couple of more polls, and I'll move this one to Likely D)

Massachusetts: Safe D (Doesn't really matter if Kennedy III or Markey wins in the primary, they aren't losing in November)

Michigan: Likely D (Gary Peters is probably a poll or two away from being a lock to win)

Minnesota: Safe D (Tina Smith could have been in more trouble after the George Floyd protests, but luckily for her, her primary Republican opponent is a crazy ex-Representative. She might still get held to an embarrassingly poor result in the primary though.)

Mississippi: Safe R (There is no way a black man is winning a Senate race in Mississippi any time soon)

Montana: Tossup (I'm not sure Steve Daines is taking this race seriously)

Nebraska: Safe R (This was Safe R before Janicek imploded, it's still Safe R)

New Hampshire: Safe D (Jeanne Shaheen probably will be in trouble in 2026. However she drew weak opposition this year.)

New Jersey: Safe D

New Mexico: Safe D

North Carolina: Lean D (flip) (Unless Trump wins North Carolina by a significant margin, the coattails from the Governor's race should carry Cal Cunningham over the top here)

Oklahoma: Safe R

Oregon: Safe D

Rhode Island: Safe D

South Carolina: Likely R (Jamie Harrison's been polling well lately but I'm skeptical of his chances. That said, I wouldn't rule out an upset here)

South Dakota: Safe R

Tennessee: Safe R

Texas: Tilt R (I have both MJ Hegar and Royce West doing far better against Cornyn than anyone else does, but that's because I believe Biden will spend significant sums of money to try to win Texas. Even if they don't succeed that helps Democrats downballot)

Virginia: Safe D (Unlike in the Presidential Race, Virginia is currently Safe D)

West Virginia: Safe R

Wyoming: Safe R

AZ, CO, ME, NC, IA, GA A, B, KS and MT gets Dems to 51 to 55 seats filibuster proof

AL, AK, SC, KY, MS, TX gets Ds to 55 to 60 seats

Realistically

AL,,AK, CO, GA, IA, ME, MS,,MT, NC and SC gets Ds to 55 to 58 seats enough to pass DC statehood

Updated my prediction map. MI stays D. And i have now IA, ME, MT, NC, AZ flipping on top of CO. AL flips as well. Huge change from my previous prediction map.

Updated: 7/28/20

Alabama - Tommy Tuberville d. Doug Jones
Alaska - Dan Sullivan d. Al Gross
Arizona - Mark Kelly d. Martha McSally
Arkansas - Tom Cotton d. Ricky Harrington Jr.
Colorado - John Hickenlooper d. Cory Gardner
Delaware - Chris Coons d. Lauren Witzke
Georgia -  Jon Ossoff d. David Perdue
Georgia - Kelly Loeffler d. Doug Collins
Idaho - Jim Risch d. Paulette Jordan
Illinois - Dick Durbin d. Mark Curran
Iowa - Theresa Greenfield d. Joni Ernst
Kansas - Kris Kobach d. Barbara Bollier
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell d. Amy McGrath
Louisiana - Bill Cassidy d. Antoine Pierce
Maine - Susan Collins d. Sara Gideon
Massachusetts - Joseph Kennedy III d. Shiva Ayyadurai
Michigan - Gary Peters d. John James
Minnesota - Tina Smith d. Jason Lewis
Mississippi - Cindy Hyde-Smith d. Mike Espy
Montana - Steve Daines d. Steve Bullock
Nebraska - Ben Sasse d. Chris Janicek
New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen d. Corky Messner
New Jersey - Cory Booker d. Natalie Lynn Rivera
New Mexico - Ben Ray Lujan d. Mark Ronchetti
North Carolina - Cal Cunningham d. Thom Tillis
Oklahoma - Jim Inhofe d. Abby Broyles
Oregon - Jeff Merkley d. Jo Rae Perkins
Rhode Island - Jack Reed d. Allen Waters
South Carolina - Lindsey Graham d. Jaime Harrison
South Dakota - Mike Rounds d. Dan Ahlers
Tennessee - Bill Haggerty d. James Mackler
Texas - John Cornyn d. MJ Hegar
Virginia - Mark Warner d. Daniel Gade
West Virginia - Shelley Moore Capito d. Paula Jean Swearengin
Wyoming - Cynthia Lummis d. Yana Ludwig

D gain: AZ, CO,, GA, IA, KS, ME, MT, SC, NC, SC
R gain: AL

My senate forecast as of August 1st, 2020.

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Senate: 51-49 Dem majority

R -> D Flips: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina
D -> R Flips: Alabama

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CO: Hickenlooper 51-43
AZ: Kelly 54-46
MI: Peters 54-46
NC: Cunningham 51-47
GA: Ossoff 50-49
MT: Daines 50-48
ME: Collins 51-49
IA: Ernst 51-48
KS: Marshall 53-46
TX: Cornyn 53-46
AK: Sullivan 54-45
AL: Tuberville 57-43

McSally +2 Kelly*
Hickenlooper +4 Gardner
Greenfield +1 Ernst*
Marshall +6 Bollier
Gideon+2 Collins
Kennedy +2 Markey
Peter's +4 James
Smith +4
Daines +6 Bullock, Gianforte +4 Cooney
Shaheen +6 Ds def Sununu
Cunningham* +2 Tillis as Cooper wins by 2

D+3 seats CO, IA, ME, NC flips as AL goes R

AZ , GA and NC can switch places, but this is order I think will play out

Mid-August Update

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Safe D: 44
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 2
Toss-Up/Tilt D: 2
Toss-Up/Tilt R: 0
Lean R: 5
Likely R: 4
Safe R: 42

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 50

AK: 52.5% Sullivan, 45.0% Galvin
AZ: 51.5% Kelly, 46.0% McSally
CO: 52.5% Hickenlooper, 44.5% Gardner
GA: 50.5% Perdue, 47.5% Ossoff
GA-S: 52.0% Collins, 48.0% Warnock (Runoff)
IA: 51.5% Ernst, 46.0% Greenfield
KS: 54.5% Marshall, 44.0% Bollier
ME: 49.0% Gideon, 48.0% Collins
MI: 51.5% Peters, 46.0% James
MN: 52.5% Smith, 45.0% Lewis
MT: 52.0% Daines, 46.0% Bullock
NC: 48.5% Cunningham, 48.0% Tillis
SC: 52.5% Graham, 45.0% Harrison
TX: 52.0% Cornyn, 45.5% Hegar

Senate in complete flux right now, it'll likely be decided by North Carolina or Maine. _ This close to moving KS to Safe R, just want something other than a crap PPP interest group sponsored poll to confirm. Could also potentially move Minnesota to Lean D and Montana to Likely R, depending on how the next few months go. Overall, this is still an embarrassing situation for the Republican party, which should have no problem defending any of these states besides Colorado. We'll see how the polls fare in November.

Well, a SurveyUSA poll was released today showing Marshall ahead by... 2 points, so you can discount that crap PPP interest group sponsored poll which only showed him ahead by 1 now and move it to Safe R.

Considering that poll only has Trump ahead by 7, I think he'll end up winning by much more than 2. So he's only underperforming Trump by 5, and more likely 3-4 as undecideds skew R and Trump-voting). Also SurveyUSA has not been great (also has Biden up an absurd 34 points in Washington and did that infamous poll in 2016 where he was only up 5 in Kansas). Biden is currently doing 4 points better nationally than Clinton at the end of 2016, but a whole 13 points better here? I don't expect Kansas to trend 9 points Democratic unless there are also similar documented trends in Nebraska which is a very similar state (there isn't). Much more likely, it's polls underestimating red state margins like they've done in the past. I'll keep it at Likely for now though out of caution.

Please do keep ridiculing me until election day about how competitive this race is though. I would love to be proven wrong.

IA is leaning blue and so is GA R, its 52/48

D CO, ME
Tilt D AZ, IA, Ga R and NC

September Update

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Safe D: 43
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 2
Toss-Up/Tilt D: 2
Toss-Up/Tilt R: 1 <-- Tipping point
Lean R: 4
Likely R: 4
Safe R: 42

Democrats: 49
Republicans: 51

State Predictions (rounded to nearest 0.5%)

AK: 52.5% Sullivan, 44.0% Galvin
AZ: 51.5% Kelly, 46.0% McSally
CO: 52.5% Hickenlooper, 45.0% Gardner
GA: 51.0% Perdue, 47.0% Ossoff
GA-S: 52.0% Collins, 48.0% Warnock (Runoff)
IA: 52.0% Ernst, 46.5% Greenfield
KS: 55.0% Marshall, 43.5% Bollier
ME: 49.5% Gideon, 49.0% Collins
MI: 50.5% Peters, 48.0% James
MN: 51.0% Smith, 46.5% Lewis
MT: 52.0% Daines, 46.0% Bullock
NH: 54.5% Shaheen, 44.0% Republican
NC: 48.5% Tillis, 48.5% Cunningham
SC: 53.0% Graham, 44.0% Harrison
TX: 52.5% Cornyn, 45.5% Hegar

Senate remains a toss-up, however, states like Michigan, Minnesota, and North Carolina look better for Republicans now than they did before, but Arizona still looks rough for McSally (but she's not losing by 17 points). Very sparse polling elsewhere (so I largely have to infer), but the generic ballot has tightened slightly in the aggregate, so 1-2 point improvement for Republicans across the board + some polls have the generic ballot closer than the presidential race.

If Cooper wins the Gov in NC , he will have coattails for Cunningham to beat Tillis

Doug Jones has zero chance. His opponent is a religious coach who wants more prayer in schools.

D's win AZ, CO and ME
Tossup GA R, GA S, IA and NC
Stretched seats KS, MT, SC and TX

So I've just finished two Wikipedia-style county maps for my two home states: Virginia and South Carolina. Questions, comments, and criticism are welcome.





(Images made myself)

Graham is gonna lose

A week before election (reserve the right to change until ED) it seems that the fate of the Senate majority will be decided in 3-4 states: Iowa, Maine, North Carolina and, possibly, in Georgia runoffs. Expect Democrats to lose Alabama and hold Michigan, Republicans - to lose Arizona and Colorado, but - hold Alaska, Kansas, Montana, South Carolina and Texas (in all cases - by single digits, but - nevertheless).  So, something between 49D -51R and 51D-49R..

So, for the races in Georgia and Louisiana, are we predicting the November 3rd results or are we predicting the final votes for each candidate to get into office?

R -> D flips: Alabama
D -> R flips: Colorado, Arizona, Maine, Alaska & Montana
Special election: Both Georgia races

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Final Senate Prediction 2020

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Safe D: 43
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 1
Tilt D: 2
Tilt R: 2
Lean R: 3
Likely R: 5
Safe R: 42

Democratic: 48 (+1)
Republican: 52 (-1)

States (rounded to nearest 0.5%)

AL: 58.0% Tuberville, 41.0% Jones
AK: 52.0% Sullivan, 43.0% Galvin
AZ: 51.0% Kelly, 48.0% McSally
CO: 52.5% Hickenlooper, 45.0% Gardner
GA: 51.0% Perdue, 46.5% Ossoff
GA-S: 43.0% Warnock, 25.5% Collins, 23.0% Loeffler (toss-up on 2nd place) --> 51.5% Collins, 48.5% Warnock
IA: 51.5% Ernst, 47.0% Greenfield
KS: 54.5% Marshall, 44.0% Bollier
ME: 50.5% Collins, 48.5% Gideon --> 50.5% Collins, 49.5% Gideon if RCV
MI: 49.0% Peters, 48.5% James
MN: 49.5% Smith, 47.0% Lewis
MT: 53.5% Daines, 46.5% Bullock
NH: 54.5% Shaheen, 44.5% Messner
NC: 50.0% Tillis, 48.5% Cunningham
SC: 54.0% Graham, 45.0% Harrison
TX: 52.0% Cornyn, 45.5% Hegar

Maine and Michigan are the races I'm least sure about. Maine is surely a bold call - not a single poll has Collins leading - but I think she's overperforming Trump by enough in them to make this at least close.

Going for this Senate map, 52 Democratic Senators.
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I have a feeling that at least one of the races I have Republicans winning will end up being won by the Democrats, but in each individual race the Republican candidate is favored. I decided not to try and adjust my prediction for that.

My forecast:

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Actual results:

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Postmortem on my forecast:

I predicted the wrong winner in three states (IA, ME, NC), and did not expect Georgia's regular senate election to go into a runoff.  I did not predict a margin for Georgia's special election.

My most accurate states were South Carolina, Texas, and Georgia.

My biggest misses were Arkansas, where I did not expect Tom Cotton's Libertarian opponent to get over 30% of the vote, and Maine, where Collins outperformed all expectations and won a near double digit victory.  I was also inaccurate in Iowa and Montana.

Here are my predicted margins from before the election vs the actual margins as of Nov 8th, 2020. We won't know Alaska for a while, so I'll leave that one out of the equation.

South Carolina      +10 Republican     +10.3 Republican     (0.3)
Texas         +10 Republican               +9.8 Republican       (0.2)
Kansas         +7 Republican               +11.9 Republican     (4.9)
Alaska         +6 Republican                N/A
Montana      +3 Republican                +10.0 Republican     (7.0)
Georgia         +2 Republican              +1.9 Republican       (0.1)
Iowa         +0.5 Democrat                 +6.6 Republican       (7.1)
Maine         +2 Democrat                  +8.9 Republican       (10.9)
North Carolina      +4 Democrat         +1.7 Republican       (5.7)
Arizona-S      +5 Democrat                +2.6 Democrat         (2.4)
Michigan      +6 Democrat                 +1.5 Democrat         (4.5)
Minnesota      +8 Democrat               +5.3 Democrat         (2.7)
Colorado      +10 Democrat               +9.0 Democrat         (1.0)

Alaska update...

Forecast: +6 Sullivan

Actual: +13.3 Sullivan

Well done!

Everyone had NC and ME as solid D pickups, that was funny it didn't come through

GA is leaning D now

My bias (rounded to nearest 0.5%)

AL: D+3.5
AK: D+3.5
AZ: D+0.5
CO: R+2
GA: R+2.5 pre runoff
GA-S: lol*
IA: D+2
KS: D+1
ME: D+6.5
MI: R+1
MN: R+2.5
MT: D+3
NH: R+5.5
NC: D+0.5
SC: D+1.5
TX: D+3

On average: D+1 (not including GA-S)

I overall underestimated Republicans in red states even after all the crap I got for saying AL, MT, KS, SC, and IA weren't going to be close in the end. My biggest error was Maine for Susan Collins, which I think was a shock for everybody the sheer margin. Ticket splitting is alive and well in Maine, as it is in New Hampshire where Shaheen landslided. I expected both Collins and Shaheen to well overperform their states presidential vote, but to the extent they both did was very impressive.

*I knew the Georgia special race was going to be a mess where a runoff was inevitable, so I obviously didn't predict that very well.