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Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Presidential Election Trends => Topic started by: jake_arlington on September 07, 2019, 01:14:07 pm



Title: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: jake_arlington on September 07, 2019, 01:14:07 pm
If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Technocracy Timmy on September 07, 2019, 01:15:16 pm
Rashida Tlaib


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: I Can Now Die Happy on September 07, 2019, 01:16:00 pm

Great post, I would love to see her be the D nominee in 2024.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: here2view on September 07, 2019, 01:21:30 pm
Gretchen Whitmer


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Staunch anti-Trump Dem for Trump bcuz SoCiAlIsM on September 07, 2019, 01:57:53 pm
Depends on who he beats in 2020.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Roll Roons on September 07, 2019, 02:12:53 pm
Far too early to tell. Newsom, Whitmer, Chris Murphy, Duckworth, Merkley, Cortez Masto, Baldwin, Brown, and Cooper all seem like they might go for the nomination. Maybe one of the also-rans from this year, like Harris, Booker or Klobuchar. I don't see AOC getting it, especially if the losing 2020 nominee is Warren or Bernie.

Plus there could always be some new person who comes out of nowhere.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia on September 07, 2019, 02:15:27 pm
No idea, but I can tell you it wonít be Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, or any other old fart.  2020 is the Old Guardís last throw of the dice.  We are going to see entirely new and younger generations (mainly Generation Xers and Millennials) dominate the nomination battle.  It will be even more wide open in 2024 than it is now.  


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Kyng on September 07, 2019, 02:17:59 pm
Probably someone who isn't even on the radar yet.

I hate to say it, but I can honestly see it being a celebrity candidate - or, if it's a politician, then it'll be someone well to the left of the Democratic mainstream. After two terms of Trump, the Democratic base will be wanting to throw a brick at the Democratic establishment - and this is doubly true if the 2020 nominee is Joe Biden or another establishment-friendly figure. Heck, even if it's Bernie who loses in 2020, his wing of the party will probably put it down to him being "too centrist" or "too neoliberal" in the general election campaign...


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: АverroŽs 🦉 on September 07, 2019, 02:27:42 pm
Warren will be 75 in 2024. That will be a tough sell if either Biden or Sanders loses to Trump.

My entirely serious answer to this question is a name that few even dare mention on this forum: Andrew Cuomo.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Cory Booker on September 07, 2019, 02:30:09 pm
It would be Sherrod Brown, he was ready to run for Prez in 2020, if Biden somehow fails; which he wont, it will be Brown


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Cassandra on September 07, 2019, 02:31:19 pm
Warren will be 75 in 2024. That will be a tough sell if either Biden or Sanders loses to Trump.

My entirely serious answer to this question is a name that few even dare mention on this forum: Andrew Cuomo.

Is Cuomo popular in New York? I thought no one really liked him, even offline.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Bennet or Bust on September 07, 2019, 02:37:38 pm
Neil Abercrombie. It's his turn.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: redeagleofficial on September 07, 2019, 02:42:33 pm
AOC.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: L.D. Smith on September 07, 2019, 02:48:00 pm
Someone that represents the path to M4A, no questions asked. The nominee is probably not even on anyone's radar.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: АverroŽs 🦉 on September 07, 2019, 03:04:07 pm
Warren will be 75 in 2024. That will be a tough sell if either Biden or Sanders loses to Trump.

My entirely serious answer to this question is a name that few even dare mention on this forum: Andrew Cuomo.

Is Cuomo popular in New York? I thought no one really liked him, even offline.

He was popular enough to win reelection in a landslide despite cratering Upstate. A well-funded left-wing primary challenge, outrage over the SAFE Act, corruption trials for various cronies - none of it made a difference.

And that's exactly why he would make sense. No matter how much everyone seems to hate him, no matter how outraged various party factions get over his behavior, and no matter how much heat he catches from his center and left flanks alike, Cuomo always wins. Who better to take up the Democratic mantle after two terms of Donald Trump than someone who can campaign openly as a partisan thug? (But one who, nonetheless, is not particularly ideological or likely to raise middle class taxes.)


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: 96FJV on September 07, 2019, 04:10:13 pm
Sherrod Brown, Gretchen Whitmer, Tammy Baldwin, and Gavin Newsom come to mind. I could see alot of the people going nowhere this time around giving it another go. I do think Biden would lose to Trump, and if he did I think it would be even more contentious than it is now.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Skill and Chance on September 07, 2019, 04:26:39 pm
Depends heavily on who lost and what the CW is on why they lost. 

"Biden lost because he was too boring/moderate" = activist left pick, probably favors someone young and nonwhite: AOC/Abrams/Jayapal/Pressley/Gavin Newsom/maybe Sherrod Brown

"Sanders/Warren lost because they were too socialist" = establishment pick, with a notable pro-business streak and executive experience being a plus: Whitmer/Cooper/Walz/Lujan Grisham/Sinema/Kelly if she wins reelection, maybe Booker/Klobuchar (their time may have passed?) or some moderate elected to gov/sen in a Trump state in 2020/22.  Mark Kelly sticks out as someone with national potential if he flips the other AZ seat.


"Biden/Sanders/Warren lost because they were too old/didn't connect with Millennials" = Buttigieg/AOC/Yang/JPK III if he wins the senate seat


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Reluctant Berniebro on September 07, 2019, 05:24:42 pm

Be careful what you wish for, you might end up getting President Tlaib if the country is sick enough of Trump to vote for anything with a (D) next to their name.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Roll Roons on September 07, 2019, 05:27:54 pm

Be careful what you wish for, you might end up getting President Tlaib if the country is sick enough of Trump to vote for anything with a (D) next to their name.

At the same time, imagine the downballot backlash that would come under a Tlaib presidency.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Thunder98 on September 07, 2019, 05:33:36 pm
Don Blankenship


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: bronz4141 on September 07, 2019, 05:46:26 pm
No idea, but I can tell you it wonít be Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, or Bernie Sanders, or any other old fart.  2020 is the Old Guardís last throw of the dice.  And Iím on the fence about whether Elizabeth Warren will be the next-in-line assuming Biden wins the 2020 nomination but (barely) fails to beat Trump.  We are going to see entirely new and younger generations dominate the nomination battle.  It will be even more wide open in 2024 than it is now.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: jake_arlington on September 07, 2019, 05:53:50 pm
D-did I just ... hear you say ...


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia on September 07, 2019, 06:08:05 pm
Warren will be 75 in 2024. That will be a tough sell if either Biden or Sanders loses to Trump.

For whatever reason I thought she was younger, and would be about Reagan's age in 1980 when 2024 came around. 

Okay, never mind what I said about her.... 


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Technocracy Timmy on September 07, 2019, 06:46:46 pm

Be careful what you wish for, you might end up getting President Tlaib if the country is sick enough of Trump to vote for anything with a (D) next to their name.

At the same time, imagine the downballot backlash that would come under a Tlaib presidency.

The pendulum always swings :P


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: giving birth to thunder on September 08, 2019, 12:48:34 am
My first thought was "some Governor who was first elected in 2018", but honestly looking at the roster...

Gavin Newsom: Sleazy as hell, all sorts of skeletons in his closet.
Steve Sisolak: Too conservative, boring, kind of old.
Michelle Lujan Grisham: Maybe if she can actually get news for something? Seems kind of boring and generic but potential might be there.
Jared Polis: Too many shady ties like with Bitcoin.
Laura Kelly: Really boring and old. If she gets reelected she could run on the electability angle but I doubt people will care especially as she didn't so much win as the Kansas GOP lost (and that would probably be true in 2022 if she wins as well.)
Tim Walz: As much as I love this guy, I'd be very surprised if he's interested, and he's probably aware his Midwestern folksiness is the big part of his appeal and that would go nowhere nationally (especially after Klobuchar's failure to capitalize on it.)
Tony Evers: Old and almost certainly not interested.
JB Pritzker: I know Democrats have kind of turned around on him...but come on. Though I'll grant he's not as laughable of a Presidential candidate as Peter Florrick would've been.
Gretchen Whitmer: ...maybe? Actually pretty plausible.
Ned Lamont: Unpopular, unlikely to improve, already proven he's not really that great at campaigns or primaries unless he has the entire progressive movement backing him, which he sure won't this time.
Janet Mills: Old and boring.

Andrew Gillum would've been a contender had he won...but not Stacey Abrams, who has always been a laughably overhyped candidate who I frankly goes away forever (especially since it looks like Georgia might be developing a decent Democratic bench without her.)

Although looking at pre-existing Governors Tom Wolf would be a fantastic candidate except he's too old and almost certainly not interested. Phil Murphy actually looks pretty good on his record until you consider the optics of "former Goldman Sachs guy from New Jersey." For Cuomo, I'll just note that he's incredibly dull, uncharismatic and has a non-neglible chance of being indicted by then.

So I'm going to go with some Senator who isn't running now but is making a bit of a name for themselves and is sufficiently charismatic and high energy, like Chris Murphy or Tammy Duckworth, or some dark horse like Pete Buttigieg who isn't even on the radar yet.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Mister Mets on September 08, 2019, 12:00:50 pm
Interesting question. This does depend a bit on who loses and why.

If Sanders or Warren loses, there might be the sense the party went too far left, and that someone who appears more moderate is needed.

If Biden loses, there might be the sense that someone younger/ more diverse is needed.

I don't think it'll be the people currently running. The second place finisher is likely to pretty damn old, if it's Warren, Sanders or Biden. I don't see much reason Harris, Booker or Klobuchar will do better the next time around.

Of the people who didn't run, Tammy Duckworth may be well positioned. She's a military veteran/ woman of color in Obama's old Senate seat.

The last few years haven't featured that many elections of obvious star Democrats to statewide office. Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum would be top contenders had they won, but they didn't win their races. Gretchen Whitmer looks the best on paper. Krysten Sinema may have a following, and has demonstrated tremendous political skill, although what worked in Arizona might not fit the US.

Some of the 2020 Senate races might also feature new contenders. Hickenlooper probably wouldn't get more buzz as a Senator than he did as a Governor, but Joe Kennedy III would be a star on day one. I could see Sara Gideon getting support.

This is a new environment where members of Congress could plausibly run. AOC would be a progressive favorite, although she likely has a ceiling (it might also be in her interest to challenge Gilibrand in the primary.) Younger African-American members of Congressional leadership Cedric Richmond and Hakeem Jeffries might have openings.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Anarcho-Statism on September 11, 2019, 12:55:41 pm
My hunch right now is that Warren and Buttigieg barely lose 2020. Gretchen Whitmer positions herself ideologically somewhere between Biden and Warren and picks Cedric Richmond as her running mate. They win 2024 by a decent margin and 2028 by a bigger margin because of division in the GOP.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: President Johnson on September 11, 2019, 02:16:42 pm
Gretchen Whitmer.

I think there is a great chance she will become president regardless of 2020.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Dirty Dan on September 11, 2019, 02:19:13 pm
What are the chances that either that the next Democratic president is either 1) some famous person not really into politics yet, 2) some low-level party official or local government person, or 3) is just some lawyer, banker, scientist, or bureaucrat somewhere?


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Skill and Chance on September 11, 2019, 07:08:43 pm
Interesting question. This does depend a bit on who loses and why.

If Sanders or Warren loses, there might be the sense the party went too far left, and that someone who appears more moderate is needed.

If Biden loses, there might be the sense that someone younger/ more diverse is needed.

I don't think it'll be the people currently running. The second place finisher is likely to pretty damn old, if it's Warren, Sanders or Biden. I don't see much reason Harris, Booker or Klobuchar will do better the next time around.

Of the people who didn't run, Tammy Duckworth may be well positioned. She's a military veteran/ woman of color in Obama's old Senate seat.

The last few years haven't featured that many elections of obvious star Democrats to statewide office. Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum would be top contenders had they won, but they didn't win their races. Gretchen Whitmer looks the best on paper. Krysten Sinema may have a following, and has demonstrated tremendous political skill, although what worked in Arizona might not fit the US.

Some of the 2020 Senate races might also feature new contenders. Hickenlooper probably wouldn't get more buzz as a Senator than he did as a Governor, but Joe Kennedy III would be a star on day one. I could see Sara Gideon getting support.

This is a new environment where members of Congress could plausibly run. AOC would be a progressive favorite, although she likely has a ceiling (it might also be in her interest to challenge Gilibrand in the primary.) Younger African-American members of Congressional leadership Cedric Richmond and Hakeem Jeffries might have openings.

I think the most likely answer is that Dems are going to crush it in the Sunbelt states in 2022 if Trump is reelected and the nominee will probably be someone elected statewide in AZ/NC/GA/TX/maybe FL in 2020/22.  I really like Mark Kelly's chances if he breaks through in AZ.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Mister Mets on September 11, 2019, 10:12:53 pm
Interesting question. This does depend a bit on who loses and why.

If Sanders or Warren loses, there might be the sense the party went too far left, and that someone who appears more moderate is needed.

If Biden loses, there might be the sense that someone younger/ more diverse is needed.

I don't think it'll be the people currently running. The second place finisher is likely to pretty damn old, if it's Warren, Sanders or Biden. I don't see much reason Harris, Booker or Klobuchar will do better the next time around.

Of the people who didn't run, Tammy Duckworth may be well positioned. She's a military veteran/ woman of color in Obama's old Senate seat.

The last few years haven't featured that many elections of obvious star Democrats to statewide office. Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum would be top contenders had they won, but they didn't win their races. Gretchen Whitmer looks the best on paper. Krysten Sinema may have a following, and has demonstrated tremendous political skill, although what worked in Arizona might not fit the US.

Some of the 2020 Senate races might also feature new contenders. Hickenlooper probably wouldn't get more buzz as a Senator than he did as a Governor, but Joe Kennedy III would be a star on day one. I could see Sara Gideon getting support.

This is a new environment where members of Congress could plausibly run. AOC would be a progressive favorite, although she likely has a ceiling (it might also be in her interest to challenge Gilibrand in the primary.) Younger African-American members of Congressional leadership Cedric Richmond and Hakeem Jeffries might have openings.

I think the most likely answer is that Dems are going to crush it in the Sunbelt states in 2022 if Trump is reelected and the nominee will probably be someone elected statewide in AZ/NC/GA/TX/maybe FL in 2020/22.  I really like Mark Kelly's chances if he breaks through in AZ.
Do you think someone elected to statewide office in 2022 could be the favorite in 2024? Is there enough time to accomplish anything before the process of running a national campaign kicks off?


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Mister Mets on September 11, 2019, 10:20:18 pm
What are the chances that either that the next Democratic president is either 1) some famous person not really into politics yet, 2) some low-level party official or local government person, or 3) is just some lawyer, banker, scientist, or bureaucrat somewhere?
Interesting question.

Technically, this is likeliest to happen if the next Democratic President isn't elected until 2028 or later.

At the moment, we have a sense of who is running for statewide office in 2020, and they would be newcomers seeking office in 2024.

On the flipside, sixteen years ago Obama was a state senator a few months into a primary where he was the underdog to the state comptroller and a multimillionaire securities trader whose domestic violence allegations hadn't come out yet.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Mister Mets on September 16, 2019, 07:06:58 pm
The more I think about it, the more Joseph Kennedy III makes sense.

If Warren, Biden or Sanders lose, a takeaway will be that Democrats should nominate someone younger.

He'll probably be in the Senate in the state next to New Hampshire that has produced multiple nominees.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Chris B on September 28, 2019, 06:10:19 pm
I'm going against the grain here, but I think it'll be someone ideologically similar to Warren and Sanders even if one of those two wind up the nominee this time around and goes on to lose to Trump. I mean being seen as too far to the right on immigration was seen as one of the reason why Romney lost in '12 but that still didn't prevent Trump from winning the GOP nomination four years later. I'm skeptical that today's Democratic base would attribute being too liberal as the reason for a Warren or Sanders defeat so I'm personally not expecting a renewed love for more moderate candidates. And especially if Biden is nominated and loses, I think that fervor would be stoked even more.

That said, I could see Booker, Harris, and Buttigieg all giving it another try out of the candidates running this time. Maybe Warren as well if she loses to Biden in the primary, but as has been pointed out she'll be 75 by then.

Joe Kennedy III strikes me as real possibility assuming he defeats Markey in that primary.

None of the current Democratic governors strike me as really presidential material with the possible exceptions of Newsom and Whitmer.

This is part wishful thinking and part prognostication, but I could maybe see Sherrod Brown finally giving it a go. The fact that his Senate seat will be up that year could maybe circumvent the problem of DeWine picking his replacement, assuming a Dem isn't elected governor of Ohio in 2022.



Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on September 30, 2019, 11:35:29 pm
Gretchen Whitmer


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Del Tachi on October 01, 2019, 09:57:42 pm
Showdown between AOC and either Harris/Newsom


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: My 401(k) is YUGE on October 02, 2019, 08:03:31 am
It won't matter. 2024 will be a change year, and unless a whole lot goes perfectly for the GOP, the Democrats will win the White House.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Corbyn is STILL leader of the Labour Party on October 02, 2019, 11:15:00 am
Roy Cooper


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: My 401(k) is YUGE on October 04, 2019, 12:58:58 pm
Possibly someone no one here has heard of unless they are from the same state.


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: EEllis02 on October 30, 2019, 06:23:03 pm
Most likely Michelle Obama if she decides to run


Title: Re: If Trump wins again in 2020, who will the 2024 Dem nominee be?
Post by: Feel The Bern on October 31, 2019, 10:56:54 am
Brown, Booker, Harris, Yang, Buttigieg will all run again, with some additions like Newsom, Whitmer, Kennedy III, Sinema, AOC or Pressley, and some others. Maybe Howie Hawkins as well.