Talk Elections

So, it happens. Hundreds of miles of lateral movement occur along the San Andreas fault. We're talking large scale geologic shifts here, parts of coastal California turning into islands or falling into the Pacific. Terrible disaster. What are the long term political effects? Of course the first few years see necessary bipartisan disaster response, but when the dust settles, what happens to California and the country as a whole politically? Does the state go the way of Louisiana after Katrina and shift more Republican due to population loss on the coast, or does the sudden economic downturn increase the demand for federal aid? Does voter behavior change? Do investors come back, or is one of the biggest economic powerhouse states permanently lost? Does a spike in emigrating Californians affect the political climate elsewhere? Does FEMA funding become a more prominent issue in future elections? Though it has no relation, does the disaster have any effect on the climate change agenda? With terrible tsunamis hitting Asia, how do the parties handle foreign aid for them?

This is one of those black swans that can't be predicted, but seeing as it's 100% going to happen in the future, it's worth considering.

Well, there would obviously be a large influx of refugees into Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, as well as other Western states (California's Mormons would probably emigrate to Utah, which could significantly increase its population). California would definitely lose a good amount of electoral votes, but it probably stays Democratic (though it'll probably be less so). As the affected areas are mostly liberal, I think the states around California shift blue (this is most significant in Arizona, but less so in Nevada and Oregon).

Assuming Californian emigration is exacerbated, and natural disasters are fresh in western voters minds, this could have interesting implications for Montana and Idaho as well! For the first time in history, those libertarian voters might be more receptive to a hands-on federally-funded and/or managed approach in dealing with disasters.

Personally, as a Coastal Californian in the current diaspora, I wound up in the Sun Belt. I know that's the main target for Californians, but I've heard a big chunk- particularly those whiter and more well-off- are heading to northern states. Fresh air and acreage and whatever.

You know, earthquakes are exacerbated, once you live in Cali, than outside; as a result, you'll find out, there's nothing to fear. Its like flying or taking a cruise

Right, but I'm talking about the big one.