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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Election Predictions => Topic started by: Joe Republic on December 21, 2005, 05:39:03 pm



Title: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Joe Republic on December 21, 2005, 05:39:03 pm
This is subject to change as new polls and information on candidates emerge:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;5&AK=1;3;3&AZ=1;10;7&AR=1;6;3&CA=2;55;3&CO=2;9;3&CT=2;7;7&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=2;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;21;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=2;7;5&KS=1;6;5&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=1;10;3&MA=1;12;5&MI=1;17;5&MN=2;10;5&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;5&NH=1;4;7&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;7&NY=1;31;7&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;3&OK=1;7;5&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=2;4;7&SC=2;8;7&SD=2;3;7&TN=1;11;5&TX=2;34;7&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;7&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;5&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;7&NE2=2;1;7&NE3=2;1;7)


Light blue/red: Very close election
Plain blue/red: Reasonably close
Dark blue/red: Wide margin of victory


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Frodo on December 21, 2005, 05:41:21 pm
Key

Dark Red -Democratic Gain
Pink -Democratic Hold

Dark Blue -Republican Gain
Light Blue -Republican Hold

(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;3&AK=1;3;9&AZ=1;10;3&AR=1;6;9&CA=2;55;3&CO=1;9;9&CT=2;7;3&DE=1;3;3&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;3&GA=2;15;3&HI=2;4;3&ID=2;4;3&IL=1;21;3&IN=0;11;5&IA=2;7;9&KS=1;6;3&KY=1;8;9&LA=2;9;9&MD=2;10;3&MA=2;12;3&MI=1;17;3&MN=1;10;9&MS=2;6;3&MO=0;11;3&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;3&NH=1;4;3&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;3&NY=1;31;9&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;9&OK=1;7;3&OR=1;7;3&PA=1;21;3&RI=2;4;3&SC=2;8;3&SD=2;3;3&TN=1;11;3&TX=2;34;3&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;3&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=2;10;9&WY=1;3;3&ME=1;2;3&ME1=1;1;3&ME2=1;1;3&NE=2;2;3&NE1=2;1;3&NE2=2;1;3&NE3=2;1;3)

This includes predictions for both the 2006 and 2007 gubernatorial elections.




Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Joe Republic on December 21, 2005, 05:43:40 pm
Ah, I was trying to figure out how you did your shading.  I was wondering why you had Ohio so deeply red, but then I realized you've made the darker colors pickups.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: © tweed on December 21, 2005, 06:53:09 pm
Dems gain Ohio, Maschusetts, New York, Maryland, California
GOP gains Iowa

Dems +4 (2006 only)


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Q on December 21, 2005, 08:42:55 pm
2006 and 2007 - confidence map (relative, not actual precentages):

(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;6;3&AK=2;3;3&AZ=1;10;7&AR=1;6;3&CA=1;55;3&CO=1;9;3&CT=2;7;7&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;3&GA=2;15;4&HI=2;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;21;3&IN=0;11;5&IA=2;7;3&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;5&LA=2;9;4&MD=1;10;3&MA=1;12;6&MI=1;17;5&MN=2;10;5&MS=2;6;7&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;3&NH=1;4;7&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;7&NY=1;31;7&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;3&OK=1;7;6&OR=1;7;3&PA=1;21;3&RI=2;4;7&SC=2;8;7&SD=2;3;7&TN=1;11;6&TX=2;34;7&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;7&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;5&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;7&NE2=2;1;7&NE3=2;1;7)


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Yates on December 21, 2005, 08:52:01 pm
Q, that is quite an accurate map, in my opinion. 


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Joe Republic on December 21, 2005, 08:55:34 pm
Wikipedia is keeping a fairly useful summary of all the guber elections next year:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Gubernatorial_elections%2C_2006


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: tarheel-leftist85 on December 21, 2005, 09:07:16 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;7&AK=2;3;3&AZ=1;10;5&AR=1;6;5&CA=1;55;4&CO=2;9;5&CT=2;7;7&DE=2;3;3&DC=0;3;8&FL=1;27;4&GA=2;15;7&HI=2;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;21;4&IN=1;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;4&LA=2;9;7&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;12;4&MI=1;17;4&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=1;11;4&MT=1;3;6&NV=2;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;6&NC=1;15;6&ND=2;3;7&OH=2;20;3&OK=1;7;6&OR=2;7;3&PA=1;21;4&RI=2;4;7&SC=2;8;7&SD=2;3;7&TN=1;11;4&TX=2;34;3&UT=2;5;7&VT=2;3;7&VA=0;13;5&WA=2;11;3&WV=1;5;6&WI=1;10;4&WY=1;3;5&ME=1;2;4&ME1=1;1;4&ME2=1;1;4&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;7&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)
Light Red/Blue--9% margin or less
Medium Red/Blue--b/w 9% and 18% margin
Dark Red/Blue--18% margin or greater (like Perdue will win b/c he saved Christmas...whew!)
So the new map will look like...
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=0&ev_p=0&AL=2;9;7&AK=2;3;3&AZ=1;10;5&AR=1;6;5&CA=1;55;4&CO=2;9;5&CT=2;7;7&DE=2;3;3&DC=0;3;8&FL=1;27;4&GA=2;15;7&HI=2;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;21;4&IN=1;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;4&LA=2;9;7&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;12;4&MI=1;17;4&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=1;11;4&MT=1;3;6&NV=2;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;6&NC=1;15;6&ND=2;3;7&OH=2;20;3&OK=1;7;6&OR=2;7;3&PA=1;21;4&RI=2;4;7&SC=2;8;7&SD=2;3;7&TN=1;11;4&TX=2;34;3&UT=2;5;7&VT=2;3;7&VA=1;13;5&WA=2;11;3&WV=1;5;6&WI=1;10;4&WY=1;3;5&ME=1;2;4&ME1=1;1;4&ME2=1;1;4&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;7&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Joe Republic on December 21, 2005, 09:09:54 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;7&AK=2;3;3&AZ=1;10;5&AR=1;6;5&CA=1;55;4&CO=2;9;5&CT=2;7;7&DE=2;3;3&DC=0;3;8&FL=1;27;4&GA=2;15;7&HI=2;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;21;4&IN=1;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;4&LA=2;9;7&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;12;4&MI=1;17;4&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=1;11;4&MT=1;3;6&NV=2;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;6&NC=1;15;6&ND=2;3;7&OH=2;20;3&OK=1;7;6&OR=2;7;3&PA=1;21;4&RI=2;4;7&SC=2;8;7&SD=2;3;7&TN=1;11;4&TX=2;34;3&UT=2;5;7&VT=2;3;7&VA=0;13;5&WA=2;11;3&WV=1;5;6&WI=1;10;4&WY=1;3;5&ME=1;2;4&ME1=1;1;4&ME2=1;1;4&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;7&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)
Light Red/Blue--9% margin or less
Medium Red/Blue--b/w 9% and 18% margin
Dark Red/Blue--18% margin or greater (like Perdue will win b/c he saved Christmas...whew!)
So the new map will look like...
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=0&ev_p=0&AL=2;9;7&AK=2;3;3&AZ=1;10;5&AR=1;6;5&CA=1;55;4&CO=2;9;5&CT=2;7;7&DE=2;3;3&DC=0;3;8&FL=1;27;4&GA=2;15;7&HI=2;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;21;4&IN=1;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;4&LA=2;9;7&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;12;4&MI=1;17;4&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=1;11;4&MT=1;3;6&NV=2;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;6&NC=1;15;6&ND=2;3;7&OH=2;20;3&OK=1;7;6&OR=2;7;3&PA=1;21;4&RI=2;4;7&SC=2;8;7&SD=2;3;7&TN=1;11;4&TX=2;34;3&UT=2;5;7&VT=2;3;7&VA=1;13;5&WA=2;11;3&WV=1;5;6&WI=1;10;4&WY=1;3;5&ME=1;2;4&ME1=1;1;4&ME2=1;1;4&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;7&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)

Huh?  Please explain.  Not every state is having a guber election next year, and the ones you've included (e.g. WA) don't make sense.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Sam Spade on December 21, 2005, 11:19:50 pm
Dems gain Ohio, Maschusetts, New York, Maryland, California
GOP gains Iowa

Dems +4 (2006 only)

I'll go with this for right now, also.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: tarheel-leftist85 on December 22, 2005, 12:28:04 am
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;7&AK=2;3;3&AZ=1;10;5&AR=1;6;5&CA=1;55;4&CO=2;9;5&CT=2;7;7&DE=2;3;3&DC=0;3;8&FL=1;27;4&GA=2;15;7&HI=2;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;21;4&IN=1;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;4&LA=2;9;7&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;12;4&MI=1;17;4&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=1;11;4&MT=1;3;6&NV=2;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;6&NC=1;15;6&ND=2;3;7&OH=2;20;3&OK=1;7;6&OR=2;7;3&PA=1;21;4&RI=2;4;7&SC=2;8;7&SD=2;3;7&TN=1;11;4&TX=2;34;3&UT=2;5;7&VT=2;3;7&VA=0;13;5&WA=2;11;3&WV=1;5;6&WI=1;10;4&WY=1;3;5&ME=1;2;4&ME1=1;1;4&ME2=1;1;4&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;7&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)
Light Red/Blue--9% margin or less
Medium Red/Blue--b/w 9% and 18% margin
Dark Red/Blue--18% margin or greater (like Perdue will win b/c he saved Christmas...whew!)
So the new map will look like...
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=0&ev_p=0&AL=2;9;7&AK=2;3;3&AZ=1;10;5&AR=1;6;5&CA=1;55;4&CO=2;9;5&CT=2;7;7&DE=2;3;3&DC=0;3;8&FL=1;27;4&GA=2;15;7&HI=2;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;21;4&IN=1;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;4&LA=2;9;7&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;12;4&MI=1;17;4&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=1;11;4&MT=1;3;6&NV=2;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;6&NC=1;15;6&ND=2;3;7&OH=2;20;3&OK=1;7;6&OR=2;7;3&PA=1;21;4&RI=2;4;7&SC=2;8;7&SD=2;3;7&TN=1;11;4&TX=2;34;3&UT=2;5;7&VT=2;3;7&VA=1;13;5&WA=2;11;3&WV=1;5;6&WI=1;10;4&WY=1;3;5&ME=1;2;4&ME1=1;1;4&ME2=1;1;4&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;7&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)

Huh?  Please explain.  Not every state is having a guber election next year, and the ones you've included (e.g. WA) don't make sense.
Sorry...I meant to put "Predictions for 2006/7/8"...it must've been erased.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: True Federalist on December 22, 2005, 12:37:38 am
Why on earth does everyone think Sanford is going to win in a landslide?  He beat Hodges in 2002 who was not particularly popular then by less than 6%.  Sanford will probably win in 2006, but almost certainly not with a double digit margin.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Gustaf on December 22, 2005, 08:49:36 am
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;6&AZ=1;10;6&AR=2;6;4&CA=1;55;3&CO=2;9;6&CT=2;7;6&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;6&GA=2;15;6&HI=2;4;6&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;21;6&IN=0;11;5&IA=2;7;4&KS=1;6;6&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=2;10;4&MA=1;12;6&MI=1;17;4&MN=2;10;4&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;6&NH=0;4;6&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;6&NY=1;31;6&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;4&OK=1;7;6&OR=1;7;6&PA=1;21;6&RI=2;4;6&SC=2;8;4&SD=2;3;6&TN=1;11;6&TX=2;34;6&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;6&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=2;10;3&WY=1;3;6&ME=1;2;6&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=1;1;6&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)

30%=close
40%=lean
60%=fairly solid

MA, NY, CA, OH to Dems, WI and IA to GOP.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Ben. on December 22, 2005, 12:04:17 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;3&AK=1;3;3&AZ=1;10;5&AR=1;6;3&CA=2;55;3&CO=2;9;3&CT=2;7;5&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;5&FL=2;27;4&GA=2;15;4&HI=2;4;5&ID=2;4;5&IL=1;21;4&IN=0;11;5&IA=2;7;3&KS=1;6;4&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=1;10;3&MA=1;12;4&MI=1;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;4&NH=1;4;5&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;5&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=1;20;4&OK=1;7;4&OR=1;7;4&PA=1;21;4&RI=2;4;4&SC=2;8;6&SD=2;3;5&TN=1;11;4&TX=2;34;5&UT=0;5;5&VT=2;3;5&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;4&WY=1;3;5&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;5&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;5&NE1=2;1;5&NE2=2;1;5&NE3=2;1;5)

Break Down

Republicans: 23 (-5)
Democrats: 27 (+5)

Democrats are very well positioned in New York but while he’ll win I’d expect Spitzer to be forced into more of a fight by Bill Weld than the polls might now suggest.

There are good signs that the Democrats will also score pickups in Maryland and Massachusetts, more competitive races where the Democrats are, on balance, favoured will take place in Ohio, Arkansas and Alaska.

Despite Schwarzenegger’s weakness the Democrats have little in the way of a strong candidate and most importantly a compelling and attractive narrative of how to solve the state’s fiscal woes; consequently I’d expect Arnie’s campaigning flare to trump the best efforts of the Democrats to oust him from office next fall.

Iowa will be a close contest but I’d expect Jim Nussle to win by a clear margin after a very competitive campaign, in Minnesota GOP Governor Tim Pawlenty is also likely to be re-elected by a clear margin but will probably have a healthy contest on his hands all the same.

While Alabama, Colorado, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Wisconsin are likely to see competive races the incumbents (or incumbent parties) are probably going to hold on to the governor’s mansions in those states.


The 2007 contests will be interesting as they will enable use to finally see what political impact the population shifts that followed Katrina will have.

Prior to Katrina, Haley Barbour was struggling however Barbour emerged from the aftermath of the hurricane well but importantly the gubernatorial contest will occur over two years after Katrina and Barbour is unlikely to draw as much benefit from his handling of the crisis as he might of done had his campaign for re-election been in 2005/06 rather than 2007. What is more Barbour may have a strong Democratic candidates be if current AG Jim Hood or former AG Mike Moore (assuming of course Moore hasn’t been elected to the senate the year before ;) )… if neither runs then Barbour will probably win over nominal opposition, yet I think a competitive and close race is most likely.     

Kathleen Blanco’s handling of Katrina was widely pilloried and her approval number have all but collapsed, its interesting that prior to Katrina, unlike Babour, she was doing alright and would probably have won a fairly easy re-election. But even though Blanco relied less on the solidly Democratic Afro-American communities of New Orleans than other Democratic state office holders the huge depopulation of that area and combined with the widespread criticism of her handling of the aftermath of the hurricane  means that she will probably draw a top-tier GOP opponent and will be defeated, that is of course if she survives the primary… the Democrats in the end might be better to dump her and nominate a less tarnished more competive candidate for governor such as Lt.Governor Mitch Landrieu or even former Senator John Breaux (who has expressed interest in the post in the recent past).                     

While Louisiana might provide bad news for Democrats, Kentucky will probably cheer them up. The State GOP and incumbent Governor Ernie Fletcher are mired in scandal on an enormous scale and what makes it even worse is that Fletcher is likely to seek re-election in 2007 making a divisive GOP primary a likelihood, on top of this the state’s democratic party can boast a number of powerful candidates such as the 03 candidate and current congressman Ben Chandler and state auditor Jonathan Miller. So on balance while Louisiana is likely to tip to the GOP, Mississippi likely to provide a close contest, Kentucky is a probable Democratic pick-up.         


(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=0;9;3&AK=0;3;3&AZ=0;10;5&AR=0;6;3&CA=0;55;3&CO=0;9;3&CT=0;7;5&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;5&FL=0;27;4&GA=0;15;4&HI=0;4;5&ID=0;4;5&IL=0;21;4&IN=0;11;5&IA=0;7;3&KS=0;6;4&KY=1;8;5&LA=2;9;5&MD=0;10;3&MA=0;12;4&MI=0;17;5&MN=0;10;4&MS=2;6;3&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=0;5;4&NH=0;4;5&NJ=0;15;5&NM=0;5;5&NY=0;31;5&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=0;20;4&OK=0;7;4&OR=0;7;4&PA=0;21;4&RI=0;4;4&SC=0;8;6&SD=0;3;5&TN=0;11;4&TX=0;34;5&UT=0;5;5&VT=0;3;5&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=0;10;4&WY=0;3;5&ME=0;2;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=0;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;5)   


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Ben. on December 22, 2005, 12:14:12 pm

Why on earth does everyone think Sanford is going to win in a landslide?  He beat Hodges in 2002 who was not particularly popular then by less than 6%.  Sanford will probably win in 2006, but almost certainly not with a double digit margin.


He’s a pretty popular and indeed effective governor and the polls seem to suggest he’ll win pretty handily added to which he’s a republican incumbent in South Carolina :D   


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Q on December 22, 2005, 02:48:08 pm
There are rumors that Murkowski isn't running for re-election.  I think that would be a toss-up, or a solid Dem if Knowles runs again.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: nini2287 on December 22, 2005, 08:15:18 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;3&AZ=1;10;9&AR=1;6;3&CA=1;55;3&CO=2;9;3&CT=2;7;9&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;3&GA=2;15;6&HI=2;4;9&ID=2;4;9&IL=2;21;3&IN=0;11;5&IA=2;7;3&KS=1;6;6&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=1;10;3&MA=1;12;6&MI=1;17;6&MN=2;10;6&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;6&NH=1;4;9&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;9&NY=1;31;9&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;3&OK=1;7;6&OR=1;7;3&PA=1;21;3&RI=2;4;9&SC=2;8;9&SD=2;3;9&TN=1;11;6&TX=2;34;9&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;9&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;3&WY=1;3;6&ME=1;2;3&ME1=1;1;3&ME2=1;1;3&NE=2;2;9&NE1=2;1;9&NE2=2;1;9&NE3=2;1;9)

>30% Tossup
>60% Lean
>90% Solid

Switches:

D-->R
Iowa
Illinois

R-->D
Massachusetts
Maryland
Ohio
California
Arkansas


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: tarheel-leftist85 on December 23, 2005, 12:35:53 am
Why on earth does everyone think Sanford is going to win in a landslide?  He beat Hodges in 2002 who was not particularly popular then by less than 6%.  Sanford will probably win in 2006, but almost certainly not with a double digit margin.

I'm sorry, but I disagree.  This is a libertarian-cloaked in Evangelism governor, in a like-minded state.  I've seen an ungodly number of Sanford stickers affixed to Saudi juice-guzzlers dropping their kid off at an all white--errr...private--school while they go wine-tasting for the day (so the wine-tasting part is made up, but I do wonder whether people in Chucktown have jobs).  I have yet to see one Moore sticker.  The fact is that my soon-to-be former state is run by Hilton Head, gentrified-Charleston and Mt. Pleasant, and Lexington county.  They must not happen to have polling places in Orangeburg or Columbia.  The place is pretty scary, as is Georgia (kind of hoping the family reunion will be elsewhere!).  I have few problems with the Evangelism, but the abounding flat tax bumper stickers make my blood boil.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: True Federalist on December 23, 2005, 01:00:00 am
I'm sorry, but I disagree.  This is a libertarian-cloaked in Evangelism governor, in a like-minded state.
I haven't seen any Sanford signs around here in Lexington County, but I have seen quite a few Lovelace signs.  Sanford has managed this past year to keep making the people who should be supporting him look for an alternative, and at this point, if he wins the primary it will be purely because of the power of being the incumbent and the fund-raising that goes with it.  In seven months he's gone from a net +18% approval to a net +3% approval and if he keeps slipping at this rate, he'll be down to a net -10% disapproval rating by the primary.  If Sanford gets into a fourth lackluster sparring round with the General Assembly again, the question won't be will Moore be able to beat Sanford, it'll be can Lovelace repeat beating the political pro a second time come November.

All that said, I still expect Sanford to get four more years, but it isn't anywhere near a lock, especially if we get more of Sanford's dog and pony show instead of something he can point to as an accomplishment.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: ian on December 23, 2005, 01:48:02 am
(http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/6412/genusmap4cz.jpg)

I'm not really sure who is term-limited or not, so I just kept CO, GA, MN, & others Repub, since I dunno about Bill Owens, Sonny Perdue, and Tim Pawlenty, etc.
I think that PA, OR, MI, and AL are all tossups, so I just stuck with the incumbent just to predict SOMETHING.  These will also be the closest races.
CA, OH, NY, and MA are coming back to us.
WI, ME, NH, IA, and IL are going to switch the next election cycle.
Everything else stays the same.

edit: I don't really know why I thought that the gov. of NH had a low approval rating.  Lynch keeps his seat.

As an edit, I change my prediction on Arnold, and believe now that he will, in fact, keep his seat.
Also, AR will be a tossup.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Q on December 23, 2005, 02:04:45 pm
Illinois is staying put.  Judy Baar Topinka will win the primary, and she's not a strong candidate.  Rauschenberger would make it close, perhaps even win.  As  unpopular as Blagojevich is, Topinka won't be able to take him down.  Especially without Dem primary opposition.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: MissCatholic on December 28, 2005, 01:15:24 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;7&AK=2;3;5&AZ=1;10;7&AR=2;6;5&CA=1;55;3&CO=1;9;3&CT=2;7;7&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=2;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;21;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=2;7;3&KS=1;6;5&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=1;10;3&MA=1;12;3&MI=1;17;5&MN=2;10;5&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;7&NY=1;31;3&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;3&OK=1;7;5&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=2;4;7&SC=2;8;5&SD=2;3;7&TN=1;11;5&TX=2;34;7&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;7&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=0;2;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)

Arkansas will be close but bush and Huckabee will push Hutchison over the top. Iowa will go down to the wire. If Bushs approval rating stays under 50, then the dems will have a great night with pickups in MD, CA, MA, CO, OH.

Surprises could be Georgia, Minnesota, Michigan or Wisconsin it all depends on Bush.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: tarheel-leftist85 on December 28, 2005, 01:18:16 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;7&AK=2;3;5&AZ=1;10;7&AR=2;6;5&CA=1;55;3&CO=1;9;3&CT=2;7;7&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=2;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;21;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=2;7;3&KS=1;6;5&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=1;10;3&MA=1;12;3&MI=1;17;5&MN=2;10;5&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;7&NY=1;31;3&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;3&OK=1;7;5&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=2;4;7&SC=2;8;5&SD=2;3;7&TN=1;11;5&TX=2;34;7&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;7&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;7&ME=0;2;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)

Arkansas will be close but bush and Huckabee will push Hutchison over the top. Iowa will go down to the wire. If Bushs approval rating stays under 50, then the dems will have a great night with pickups in MD, CA, MA, CO, OH.

Surprises could be Georgia, Minnesota, Michigan or Wisconsin it all depends on Bush.
If things depend on Bush, we're screwed, b/c I guarantee his approvals will be at least 47% (I'm thinking around 52%) on 2006 Election Day.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: © tweed on December 28, 2005, 01:18:21 pm
Dems gain Ohio, Maschusetts, New York, Maryland, California
GOP gains Iowa

Dems +4 (2006 only)

Whoops, I forgot about Illinois.  Blagovejoke is sure to lose, So D+3.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: True Democrat on December 28, 2005, 01:56:33 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;3&AZ=1;10;9&AR=1;6;3&CA=1;55;3&CO=2;9;3&CT=2;7;9&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;3&GA=2;15;6&HI=2;4;9&ID=2;4;9&IL=2;21;3&IN=0;11;5&IA=2;7;3&KS=1;6;6&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=1;10;3&MA=1;12;6&MI=1;17;6&MN=2;10;6&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;6&NH=1;4;9&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;9&NY=1;31;9&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;3&OK=1;7;6&OR=1;7;3&PA=1;21;3&RI=2;4;9&SC=2;8;9&SD=2;3;9&TN=1;11;6&TX=2;34;9&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;9&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;3&WY=1;3;6&ME=1;2;3&ME1=1;1;3&ME2=1;1;3&NE=2;2;9&NE1=2;1;9&NE2=2;1;9&NE3=2;1;9)

>30% Tossup
>60% Lean
>90% Solid

Switches:

D-->R
Iowa
Illinois

R-->D
Massachusetts
Maryland
Ohio
California
Arkansas

Even though New York is basically a sure thing, it still has a Republican governor right now.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Frodo on December 28, 2005, 02:36:31 pm
Supersoulty, can you sticky this?


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: nini2287 on February 06, 2006, 01:43:00 pm
Thanks for finding the old thread, Frodo.  Anyway, here's my new prediction:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;5&AK=2;3;3&AZ=1;10;7&AR=1;6;3&CA=1;55;3&CO=1;9;3&CT=2;7;9&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;3&GA=2;15;7&HI=2;4;9&ID=2;4;9&IL=2;21;3&IN=0;11;5&IA=2;7;3&KS=1;6;7&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=1;10;3&MA=1;12;5&MI=1;17;5&MN=2;10;5&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;3&NH=1;4;9&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;9&NY=1;31;9&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;3&OK=1;7;7&OR=1;7;3&PA=1;21;3&RI=2;4;9&SC=2;8;7&SD=2;3;9&TN=1;11;5&TX=2;34;7&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;9&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;3&WY=1;3;9&ME=2;2;3&ME1=2;1;3&ME2=2;1;3&NE=2;2;9&NE1=2;1;9&NE2=2;1;9&NE3=2;1;9)

Changes:
Dem to Rep:  IA, IL, ME
Rep to Dem: NY, MA, CO, AR, CA, OH
Net:  Dem +3

>30 Tossup
>50 Likely
>70 Lean
>90 Solid


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: nclib on February 07, 2006, 11:39:45 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;5&AK=2;3;5&AZ=1;10;5&AR=1;6;5&CA=2;55;5&CO=2;9;5&CT=2;7;5&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;5&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=2;4;5&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;21;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=2;7;5&KS=1;6;5&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;5&MI=1;17;5&MN=2;10;5&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;6&NY=1;31;6&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=1;20;5&OK=1;7;5&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=2;4;5&SC=2;8;5&SD=2;3;6&TN=1;11;5&TX=2;34;5&UT=0;5;5&VT=2;3;5&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;5&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;5&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;6)


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Gustaf on February 08, 2006, 01:33:29 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;4&AZ=1;10;6&AR=1;6;3&CA=2;55;4&CO=1;9;3&CT=2;7;6&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;4&GA=2;15;6&HI=2;4;6&ID=2;4;6&IL=2;21;3&IN=0;11;5&IA=2;7;3&KS=1;6;6&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=2;10;4&MA=1;12;3&MI=1;17;6&MN=2;10;4&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;6&NH=1;4;6&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;6&NY=1;31;3&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;3&OK=1;7;6&OR=1;7;4&PA=1;21;4&RI=2;4;6&SC=2;8;6&SD=2;3;6&TN=1;11;6&TX=2;34;6&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;6&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;4&WY=1;3;6&ME=2;2;3&ME1=2;1;3&ME2=2;1;3&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;6)

Here is my first prediction map for this...

30%=seats that will change
40%=competitive seats that will stay where they are
60%=seats that will not change hands, nor be all that competitive.

So:
Dem to Rep: Iowa, Illinois and Maine
Rep to Dem: Massachusetts, New York, Colorado, Arkansas and Ohio


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Q on February 15, 2006, 04:03:43 pm
2006 and 2007.  Dark are pick-ups, light remain same party.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=1;6;9&AK=2;3;3&AZ=1;10;3&AR=1;6;9&CA=1;55;9&CO=1;9;9&CT=2;7;3&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;3&GA=2;15;3&HI=2;4;3&ID=2;4;3&IL=2;21;9&IN=0;11;5&IA=1;7;3&KS=1;6;3&KY=1;8;9&LA=2;9;9&MD=1;10;3&MA=1;12;9&MI=1;17;3&MN=2;10;3&MS=2;6;3&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;3&NH=1;4;3&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;3&NY=1;31;9&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;9&OK=1;7;3&OR=1;7;3&PA=1;21;3&RI=2;4;3&SC=2;8;3&SD=2;3;3&TN=1;11;3&TX=2;34;3&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;3&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;3&WY=1;3;3&ME=1;2;3&ME1=1;1;5&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;3&NE1=2;1;7&NE2=2;1;7&NE3=2;1;7)

+6 D in '06, then no change in '07.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Soaring Eagle on February 15, 2006, 07:51:41 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=0&ev_p=0&AL=2;9;6&AK=1;3;6&AZ=1;10;5&AR=1;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=2;9;5&CT=2;7;5&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=2;4;5&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;21;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=2;7;4&KS=1;6;6&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=1;17;5&MN=2;10;5&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;5&OK=1;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=2;4;5&SC=2;8;5&SD=2;3;5&TN=1;11;5&TX=2;34;6&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;5&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;4&WY=1;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;5&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Gabu on February 15, 2006, 08:06:49 pm
+6 D in '06, then no change in '07.

Louisiana occurs in 2007, I believe, so it should be +1 R in 2007 (according to your map).


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Q on February 15, 2006, 09:29:16 pm
+6 D in '06, then no change in '07.
Louisiana occurs in 2007, I believe, so it should be +1 R in 2007 (according to your map).

No; see Kentucky.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Gabu on February 15, 2006, 09:32:10 pm
+6 D in '06, then no change in '07.
Louisiana occurs in 2007, I believe, so it should be +1 R in 2007 (according to your map).

No; see Kentucky.

Oh, I forgot Kentucky was 2007 as well.

Carry on. :)


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Q on February 15, 2006, 09:36:12 pm
Carry on. :)

Thank you; I shall. ;)


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: PBrunsel on February 15, 2006, 09:46:56 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=0&ev_p=0&AL=2;9;6&AK=1;3;6&AZ=1;10;5&AR=1;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=2;7;5&DE=0;3;5&DC=1;3;8&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=2;4;5&ID=2;4;6&IL=2;21;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=2;7;4&KS=1;6;6&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=2;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;5&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;5&OK=1;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=2;4;5&SC=2;8;5&SD=2;3;5&TN=1;11;5&TX=2;34;6&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;5&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=2;10;4&WY=1;3;6&ME=2;2;5&ME1=2;1;5&ME2=2;1;5&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: nick on February 15, 2006, 09:59:36 pm
Call me crazy, but I like Culver in IA.  Tie Nussle to DC and throw him a f'in anvil.   Oh yeah, dont forget his intern issues.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: PBrunsel on February 15, 2006, 10:26:41 pm
Call me crazy, but I like Culver in IA.  Tie Nussle to DC and throw him a f'in anvil.   Oh yeah, dont forget his intern issues.

It will be very close, and Nussle could very well lose. I too like Culver, and polls show him running neck-and-neck with the popular Secretary of State. It's more my optimisim on my part. Culver will have to spend considerbale money against another good man Jim Blouin and our very efficent Secretary of Agriculture Patty Judge. A weasel with two legs named Bob Vander Platts is the only opponent Nussle has. He will start the campaign with money, as Culver will have to use it against Blouin and Judge.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: nick on February 15, 2006, 11:15:55 pm
What is your problem with Vander Platts?  From what Ive read, he seems like the more conservative candidate (fiscially and socially).


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: PBrunsel on February 15, 2006, 11:17:59 pm
What is your problem with Vander Platts?  From what Ive read, he seems like the more conservative candidate (fiscially and socially).

He's a flake who was out charmed by Doug Gorss, a pig confinement lobbyist. He couldn't get elected Dog Catcher.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Q on February 16, 2006, 12:00:57 am
Culver will have to spend considerbale money against another good man Jim Blouin and our very efficent Secretary of Agriculture Patty Judge. ... He will start the campaign with money, as Culver will have to use it against Blouin and Judge.

Not so; Culver announced today that Judge will be his runningmate, and Judge is now encouraging the other Dems to drop out and endorse Culver/Judge.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Ben. on February 16, 2006, 09:33:28 am
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;4&AK=2;3;4&AZ=1;10;5&AR=1;6;5&CA=2;55;5&CO=1;9;4&CT=2;7;6&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=2;4;5&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;21;4&IN=0;11;5&IA=1;7;4&KS=1;6;5&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=2;10;4&MA=1;12;5&MI=1;17;5&MN=2;10;4&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;6&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;4&OK=1;7;5&OR=1;7;5&PA=2;21;4&RI=2;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=2;3;5&TN=1;11;5&TX=2;34;6&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;5&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;4&WY=1;3;5&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;5&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)

As of right know… I reckon it’ll be a credible performance for the Dems while not quite the massive success some could have hoped for and it might well help to outshine what looks like being a very lacklusta performance in the senate for the Dems against a potentially very robust performance by the GOP.   

Result – Dems +5 (CO, AR, NY, MA and OH), - 1 (PA): Net - +4   .
          - Reps +  1 (PA), -5 (CO, AR, NY, MA and OH): Net – 4. 


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: PBrunsel on February 16, 2006, 12:56:29 pm
Culver will have to spend considerbale money against another good man Jim Blouin and our very efficent Secretary of Agriculture Patty Judge. ... He will start the campaign with money, as Culver will have to use it against Blouin and Judge.

Not so; Culver announced today that Judge will be his runningmate, and Judge is now encouraging the other Dems to drop out and endorse Culver/Judge.

That does change, but he still has Blouin to worry about, and he is a strogn candidate.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: nini2287 on February 16, 2006, 02:21:11 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;5&AK=1;3;3&AZ=1;10;7&AR=1;6;3&CA=1;55;3&CO=1;9;3&CT=2;7;9&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;3&GA=2;15;7&HI=2;4;7&ID=2;4;8&IL=2;21;3&IN=0;11;5&IA=1;7;3&KS=1;6;5&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=2;10;3&MA=1;12;5&MI=1;17;3&MN=2;10;3&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;3&NH=1;4;9&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;9&NY=1;31;9&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;3&OK=1;7;7&OR=1;7;3&PA=1;21;3&RI=2;4;7&SC=2;8;9&SD=2;3;9&TN=1;11;5&TX=2;34;5&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;9&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;3&WY=1;3;9&ME=2;2;3&ME1=2;1;3&ME2=2;1;3&NE=2;2;9&NE1=2;1;9&NE2=2;1;9&NE3=2;1;9)

30% Tossup
50% Lean
70% Strong Lean
90% Solid

Switches

D->R
IL, ME

R->D
CA, CO, AR, OH, NY, MA

Dems +4


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 05, 2006, 08:09:06 pm
Somewhat optimistic, hopefully Democrats can't catch Arnold and fall behind in PA.

Arnold is toast.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Alcon on March 05, 2006, 08:10:16 pm
Somewhat optimistic, hopefully Democrats can't catch Arnold and fall behind in PA.

Arnold is toast.

Polls show a tie, despite him having seemingly bottomed out in approval ratings.   I would hardly say that the idiot is done.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 05, 2006, 08:15:00 pm
Somewhat optimistic, hopefully Democrats can't catch Arnold and fall behind in PA.

Arnold is toast.

Polls show a tie, despite him having seemingly bottomed out in approval ratings.   I would hardly say that the idiot is done.

All that means is that Arnold has way more name recognition then his opponents. Arnold hasn't broken 40% against either Democrat in the last 4 polls. That's terrible for an incumbent.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Alcon on March 05, 2006, 08:17:20 pm
Somewhat optimistic, hopefully Democrats can't catch Arnold and fall behind in PA.

Arnold is toast.

Polls show a tie, despite him having seemingly bottomed out in approval ratings.   I would hardly say that the idiot is done.

All that means is that Arnold has way more name recognition then his opponents. Arnold hasn't broken 40% against either Democrat in the last 4 polls. That's terrible for an incumbent.

There's a race where all the candidates have very high name recognition, and I could have sworn it was California.  What are the other two's name recognition numbers?


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 05, 2006, 08:22:26 pm

There's a race where all the candidates have very high name recognition, and I could have sworn it was California.  What are the other two's name recognition numbers?

Busted, Bush apoligist.

Ratings in the Field poll released a couple of days ago:

Schwarzenegger: 44% favorable, 49% unfavorable, 7% no opinion
Angelides: 24% favorable, 13% unfavorable, 63% no opinion
Westly: 19% favorable, 9% unfavorable, 72% no opinion.





Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 05, 2006, 08:23:25 pm
Somewhat optimistic, hopefully Democrats can't catch Arnold and fall behind in PA.
Arnold is toast.

Election:  8 months away.
No one knows any better than anyone else who will win, and I think he will.

If all predictions are equally likely, why don't you predict that Senators Kennedy and Hatch will both be defeated?


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Alcon on March 05, 2006, 08:44:57 pm

There's a race where all the candidates have very high name recognition, and I could have sworn it was California.  What are the other two's name recognition numbers?

Busted, Bush apoligist.

Ratings in the Field poll released a couple of days ago:

Schwarzenegger: 44% favorable, 49% unfavorable, 7% no opinion
Angelides: 24% favorable, 13% unfavorable, 63% no opinion
Westly: 19% favorable, 9% unfavorable, 72% no opinion.

I was asking you because I wasn't certain if my memory was right.  Evidently, it wasn't, and I accept that.  Why am I "busted"?


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on March 05, 2006, 08:46:23 pm

There's a race where all the candidates have very high name recognition, and I could have sworn it was California.  What are the other two's name recognition numbers?

Busted, Bush apoligist.

Ratings in the Field poll released a couple of days ago:

Schwarzenegger: 44% favorable, 49% unfavorable, 7% no opinion
Angelides: 24% favorable, 13% unfavorable, 63% no opinion
Westly: 19% favorable, 9% unfavorable, 72% no opinion.

I was asking you because I wasn't certain if my memory was right.  Evidently, it wasn't, and I accept that.  Why am I "busted"?

63% and 72% no opinion vs. 7% no opinion is a sign of lower name recognition. Amazing rocket science, huh?


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Alcon on March 05, 2006, 08:48:23 pm

There's a race where all the candidates have very high name recognition, and I could have sworn it was California.  What are the other two's name recognition numbers?

Busted, Bush apoligist.

Ratings in the Field poll released a couple of days ago:

Schwarzenegger: 44% favorable, 49% unfavorable, 7% no opinion
Angelides: 24% favorable, 13% unfavorable, 63% no opinion
Westly: 19% favorable, 9% unfavorable, 72% no opinion.

I was asking you because I wasn't certain if my memory was right.  Evidently, it wasn't, and I accept that.  Why am I "busted"?

63% and 72% no opinion vs. 7% no opinion is a sign of lower name recognition. Amazing rocket science, huh?

Well, that's obvious now that I've seen those numbers.  I still don't see why I'm "busted," unless you were busting me on not having a perfect memory of anything.  You don't always have to "win."


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Boris on March 06, 2006, 07:48:21 pm
Dems gain: California, Colorado, Ohio, Maryland, New York, Massachusettes
Republicans gain: Illinois

I'm basically unsure about Iowa and Pennsylvania, but right now I'm assuming that an anti-GOP mood will keep both of those stats in the democratic column. But seeing as a lot can change in nine months, the aforementioned states along with Illinois represent the GOP's best chance for pickups.

Florida, thanks to solid approval ratings of Governor Jeb Bush, will remain in the GOP's column.

For now, I'm keeping Pawlenty ahead in Minnesota and Granholm ahead in Michigan, although both of these races will probably be competitve.



Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on March 06, 2006, 11:47:40 pm
Minnesota: Another interesting race that I think could break either way, though I am predicting a very small Dem gain; I have heard from a Minnesotan friend that the Dems are ripe for big gains in the state legislature and may elect a Dem governor to go along. I'm leaning Hatch.

Gains in the legislature, yes, likely. Big gains? Unfortunately not, at least in the House. The good news however, is that's because most of the competetive Republican held seats were already lost in 2004. They lost 13 seats. That was one of 2004's few bright spots for me. Admittedly the DFL leadership of the Senate has been far from perfect, but it's certainly more competant than the Republican leaders who want to throw important issues like the budget behind stupid wedge issues. But to see Hatch win, the DFL take the House, and gains in the Senate would just make my day.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: ?????????? on March 07, 2006, 01:51:17 am
Florida: Another interesting race here...I say it's a toss-up, and give it to the Republican because of Florida's GOP trend.

Toss-up? Davis is just within 13% of Charlie Crist. I wouldn't really consider that a "toss-up" but I guess with the way Dems have been winning lately that's pretty close.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Gustaf on March 08, 2006, 12:58:11 pm
Likely to switch/vulnerable seats:

1. New York - not much to say, open seat, very Democratic state, very popular Democrat candidate, split on the GOP side and huge Democrat lead in all polls. As safe as it gets.

2. Arkansas - a little cheeky, but this is a very Dem state on the local level and the Democrat is leading in polls. Also, isn't Hutchiunson a former GOP senator? I have my doubts about running ex-electe officials (kind of like Mattingly in Georgia)

3. Colorado - another somewhat bold positioning on my side...but Colorado seems to have a Democrat trend, with Salazar's election and a Dem legislature, one of few non-Southern states to have that while being GOP for so long. And, of course, RItter is doing pretty well in polls.

4. Massachusetts - Open seat in very Democrat state. Yeah, there was that close poll, but MA should still elect a Democratic governor.

5. Ohio - With Coingate and all that and Strickland seemingly a strong candidate this ought to be an easy pickup for Dems. But there seems to be no end to the mess-ups the Ohio Dems are capable of, so I'm not too confident yet.

6. Iowa - Open seat, and everyone says Jim Nussle is so great. There also seems to be a marginal GOP lean in Iowa. Very, very marginal, yes, but it's still there. Could this become another Ohio?

7. Illinois - Impopular incumbent who seems to have a strong opponent in Topinka, whom I think he trailed by as much as 11 points in the last poll. On the other hand, he's a Democrat in a Dem state. Marginal GOP lean.

Cut-off between states that I predict will change hands and those that will not!

8. California - I got a hunch the Guvernator will still pull through. California is an expensive media market for his, as far as I can tell, pretty weak opponents. An incumbent always has an advantage, even if Ahnuld is not pollingvery strongly.

9. Maine - Baldacci is improving his previously poor poll numbers. He's the 3rd in this row of about equally impopular incumbents in about equally Democratic states. He gets the edge over Arnold because he's a Democrat in a Democratic state and over Blagojevich because he doesn't seem to have as strong opposition and is polling better.

10. Wisconsin - the last spot is a close call between Doyle and Pawlenty. Minnesota is the more Democratic state, but Pawlenty seems to be the more popular incumbent. Since the personalities are probably more important I put Doyle here.

That makes it
Dem to Rep: 2
Rep to Dem: 5

Net change: Dem +3

OVerall 25-25


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: MasterJedi on March 08, 2006, 04:16:01 pm
10. Wisconsin - the last spot is a close call between Doyle and Pawlenty. Minnesota is the more Democratic state, but Pawlenty seems to be the more popular incumbent. Since the personalities are probably more important I put Doyle here.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Oh God, thank you I needed a good laugh after today! ;D

Do you mean to be talking about Wisconsin or Minnesota here?


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Gustaf on March 08, 2006, 04:23:42 pm
What? If you mean to say that Pawlenty is a lot safer than Doyle, then yes, you're probably right. I should perhaps explain that my list is very much affected by what happens right now, so I took the most recent MN poll into account. I think that the most recent polls show both races as equally close.

Or...wait...you think I'm mixing up the races? I'm not, I'm trying to explain why Wisconsin is the 10th spot, and not Minnesota...I'm not under the imperssion that Pawlenty and Doyle are running against each other, if that's what you think... :P


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Soaring Eagle on March 08, 2006, 08:58:40 pm
Likely to switch/vulnerable seats:

2. Arkansas - a little cheeky, but this is a very Dem state on the local level and the Democrat is leading in polls. Also, isn't Hutchiunson a former GOP senator? I have my doubts about running ex-electe officials (kind of like Mattingly in Georgia)

7. Illinois - Impopular incumbent who seems to have a strong opponent in Topinka, whom I think he trailed by as much as 11 points in the last poll. On the other hand, he's a Democrat in a Dem state. Marginal GOP lean.

Asa Hutchinson is the erm... sibling of former Arkansas Senator Tim Hutchinson, who was defeated for reelection in 2002 by Mark Pryor, which is another reason for a Democrat to win the governorship in AR.

Your assessment of Illinois is pretty accurate. Topinka is pretty much the only Republican statewide office-holder, and is the best candidate the GOP could produce (her major opposition comes from Jim Oberweis, who is too right-wing while Topinka is relatively moderate). However Governor Blagojevich has a health care plan in the works, which, if passed, could be enough to secure his reelection. I wouldn't exactly call it a GOP lean, though. But that's just me.



Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Jake on March 08, 2006, 09:25:00 pm
Asa Hutchinson's a man...


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Soaring Eagle on March 08, 2006, 09:26:38 pm
Asa Hutchinson's a man...
Really? I read somewhere it was his sister...
Ah, well. You're probably right.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Gabu on March 08, 2006, 09:27:59 pm
Asa Hutchinson's a man...

That's what they want you to think.

I actually made the same mistake with the governor of Mississippi, Haley Barbour, mainly because the only instances of "Haley" that I've known were female.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Gustaf on March 09, 2006, 09:26:35 am
Blagojevich approval ratings are really, really poor. When you're that impopular and you face a credible candidate, I say you're in trouble. I go by recent polls quite a lot, and the last one gave Topinka an 11 point lead. Unless that changes I'm gonna give her the edge.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Soaring Eagle on March 10, 2006, 07:05:06 pm
Blagojevich approval ratings are really, really poor. When you're that impopular and you face a credible candidate, I say you're in trouble. I go by recent polls quite a lot, and the last one gave Topinka an 11 point lead. Unless that changes I'm gonna give her the edge.
Where is this poll? The last one I saw had Blagojevich leading. But yeah, he isn't that popular. He's a good guy, but gets a lot of negative press.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Gustaf on March 11, 2006, 09:16:03 am
Ah, whoops. I missed the latest poll from Rasmussen. That does change things. I twould then be:

7. California
8.Maine
9. Illinois

Democrats thus still take 5 seats, GOP only 1. Democrats have the majority of Governors, 26-24.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Democratic Hawk on March 12, 2006, 12:05:02 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;5&AK=1;3;3&AZ=1;10;9&AR=1;6;5&CA=1;55;3&CO=1;9;3&CT=2;7;9&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;5&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=2;4;5&ID=2;4;9&IL=1;21;3&IN=0;11;5&IA=1;7;3&KS=1;6;5&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=1;10;3&MA=1;12;5&MI=1;17;3&MN=2;10;3&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;5&NH=1;4;9&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;9&NY=1;31;9&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;5&OH=1;20;5&OK=1;7;9&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;3&RI=2;4;5&SC=2;8;5&SD=2;3;9&TN=1;11;9&TX=2;34;9&UT=0;5;5&VT=2;3;9&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;3&WY=1;3;9&ME=1;2;3&ME1=1;1;3&ME2=1;1;3&NE=2;2;9&NE1=2;1;9&NE2=2;1;9&NE3=2;1;9)

Light blue/red: Toss-up
Plain blue/red: Lean
Dark blue/red: Solid

I've called them (and I'm sticking with them), no matter how implausible some of these predictions may be

Dave


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Frodo on April 09, 2006, 06:45:54 pm
BUMP

And will someone ever sticky this?


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: MasterJedi on April 09, 2006, 06:51:55 pm
And will someone ever sticky this?

PM or IM Supersoulty and then you'll get it to happen.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: MasterJedi on April 09, 2006, 06:53:50 pm
And will someone ever sticky this?

PM or IM Supersoulty and then you'll get it to happen.

He is hardly ever around, and even if I do PM him, it will take a (long) while before he responds -if he does. 

Well waiting a little while is better then never having it stickied.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Gabu on April 09, 2006, 07:00:14 pm
Does Supersoulty even want the job anymore?  Maybe we need to get another moderator.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Mr. Paleoconservative on April 09, 2006, 07:02:42 pm
Prediction Map
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?type=pred&year=2006&off=5&ev_c=0&ev_p=0&AL=2;1;4&AK=2;1;5&AZ=1;1;4&AR=2;1;5&CA=2;1;4&CO=2;1;6&CT=2;1;5&FL=2;1;5&GA=2;1;5&HI=2;1;5&ID=2;1;5&IL=1;1;5&IA=2;1;5&KS=1;1;5&ME=1;1;4&MD=2;1;5&MA=1;1;4&MI=2;1;5&MN=1;1;4&NE=2;1;6&NV=2;1;6&NH=2;1;5&NM=1;1;5&NY=1;1;7&OH=2;1;4&OK=1;1;4&OR=2;1;4&PA=2;1;4&RI=2;1;5&SC=2;1;5&SD=2;1;5&TN=1;1;5&TX=2;1;5&VT=2;1;4&WI=2;1;4&WY=1;1;4)

Confidence Map
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?type=conf&year=2006&off=5&ev_c=0&ev_p=0&AL=2;1;6&AK=2;1;6&AZ=4;1;5&AR=2;1;6&CA=2;1;6&CO=2;1;6&CT=2;1;6&FL=2;1;6&GA=2;1;6&HI=2;1;6&ID=2;1;6&IL=1;1;4&IA=2;1;4&KS=1;1;4&ME=1;1;4&MD=2;1;4&MA=4;1;5&MI=4;1;5&MN=4;1;5&NE=2;1;6&NV=2;1;6&NH=2;1;4&NM=1;1;6&NY=1;1;6&OH=2;1;4&OK=4;1;5&OR=2;1;4&PA=2;1;4&RI=2;1;4&SC=2;1;4&SD=2;1;6&TN=4;1;5&TX=2;1;6&VT=2;1;6&WI=4;1;5&WY=4;1;5)


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Jake on April 09, 2006, 07:03:42 pm
Stop the drug use.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Alcon on April 09, 2006, 07:16:00 pm
Stop the drug use.

His map may be favourable to the Republicans, but it's reasonable (heck, he even gives Democrats more of an advantage than the polls show in Minnesota, Illinois, and Maine).

New Hampshire is the only state that is ridiculous on the map, and that is because a lot of people don't realise that a Democrat was elected there in 2004, who is now very popular.

EDIT: Colorado doesn't make sense either, as Gabu said.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: © tweed on April 09, 2006, 07:52:36 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2006/PREDMAPSP/ge200684P1.png)

D +6 I think.  Wow.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Gabu on April 09, 2006, 09:35:52 pm
His map may be favourable to the Republicans, but it's reasonable (heck, he even gives Democrats more of an advantage than the polls show in Minnesota, Illinois, and Maine).

New Hampshire is the only state that is ridiculous on the map, and that is because a lot of people don't realise that a Democrat was elected there in 2004, who is now very popular.

I'm also curious why Colorado is R 60+%, given that polls have shown the Democrat with a slight lead.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Gabu on April 09, 2006, 09:38:10 pm
Here's my current prediction, which will most likely change later:

(http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2006/PREDMAPSP/ge20063866P1.png)


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Mr. Paleoconservative on April 09, 2006, 09:48:08 pm
His map may be favourable to the Republicans, but it's reasonable (heck, he even gives Democrats more of an advantage than the polls show in Minnesota, Illinois, and Maine).

New Hampshire is the only state that is ridiculous on the map, and that is because a lot of people don't realise that a Democrat was elected there in 2004, who is now very popular.

I'm also curious why Colorado is R 60+%, given that polls have shown the Democrat with a slight lead.

I did not take the time to alter percentages on many of the states; my map is a general prediction of who will win, not by how much.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Frodo on April 09, 2006, 10:43:10 pm
Does Supersoulty even want the job anymore?  Maybe we need to get another moderator.

Do you have any suggestions for replacements?


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: ?????????? on April 09, 2006, 10:44:41 pm
Does Supersoulty even want the job anymore?  Maybe we need to get another moderator.

Do you have any suggestions for replacements?

Hi. :)


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Mr. Paleoconservative on April 16, 2006, 01:52:48 pm
For some reason linking to the maps does not appear to be working.



Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Alcon on April 16, 2006, 02:27:07 pm
For some reason linking to the maps does not appear to be working.

Can you post what code you are trying to use, even if it does not work?  We can probably troubleshoot based on that.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Alcon on April 16, 2006, 02:39:27 pm
Here is how I am linking the maps, the same way I link every other image on this board.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2006/pred.php?action-statepred&fips=46)

You are using the wrong URL.  Right-click on it, click View Image, and then copy the URL from the address bar.  I'm not sure why Firefox is showing only that URL, but it's the wrong one.

Hope that works.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Mr. Paleoconservative on April 16, 2006, 02:45:07 pm
Prediction Map
(http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2006/PREDMAPSP/ge20069737P1.png)

Confidence Map
(http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2006/PREDMAPSC/ge20069737C1.png)


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Gustaf on April 18, 2006, 07:00:02 am
Update:

Top 10 vulnerable:

1. New York: seems to have everything going the Democrats' way. Heavily Democratic state, popular Dem candidate, split Republican side...if they can't win this they can't win anything. An assured pick-up IMHO and Spitzer might even break Schumer's result.

2. Massachusetts: has elected a lot of GOP govenrors, but trends are to be broken. A state that is both very Democratic and VERY liberal doesn't give much wiggle-room for Republicans. Polls have shown Democrats doing very well too.

3. Arkansas: Beebe might not be up by double digits, but he's ahead and Arkansas likes to vote Democrat if given an excuse. I fully expect them to do so again this time.

4. Colorado: wins the 4th spot narrowly over Ohio. State seems to be trending Democrat, it's an open seat and Ritter has been polling well.

5. Ohio on the other hand is much more Republican locally, but I still give Strickland the edge given Taft's approval and the polls we've seen from there.

6. Iowa: the only state I expect Republicans to win. It's a tossup but everyone talked about Jim Nussle so much...

Cut-off between those who I predict as switching and those who I don't

7. Maine: Might be a last hurrah for the old GOP tradition. Baldacci is sufficiently unpopular that he might lose, even though polling numbers have been improving. Still gives him the edge, I do.

8.  Mihcigan: Granholm seems to be polling worse and worse. I still thinks she wins, but it's tightening up.

9. Oregon: Kulongonski is unpopular and the state is only a little Dem-leaning. I still expect a Democratic incumbent in a Democratic year in a marginally Democratic year to win, but who knows?

10. Wisconsin: even approval rating, even race, even state. Very tough call, but Wisconsin is slightly, ever so slightly Democratic, Doyle's approval seems to be going in the right direction and he has incumbency. I think he'll still win.

Off the list: California

Democrats: +5


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: jerusalemcar5 on April 18, 2006, 10:54:11 pm
I may be dreaming, but I say:

Dems pick up:
Mass.
Rhode Island
New York
Maryland
Ohio
Minnesota
Arkansas
Colorado
California
Alaska

The Dem. Party has benefited reatly from the Republican scandals.  I say the people show them what they think.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Gustaf on April 19, 2006, 05:19:36 am
I may be dreaming, but I say:

Dems pick up:
Mass.
Rhode Island
New York
Maryland
Ohio
Minnesota
Arkansas
Colorado
California
Alaska

The Dem. Party has benefited reatly from the Republican scandals.  I say the people show them what they think.

You may be fooling yourself. I think the people will show YOU what they think.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Sam Spade on April 29, 2006, 11:46:50 pm
Giving my end of April Governor predictions.  You should see more in a couple of months when the primaries come and go.

Given in the same scale as the Senate predictions.  * means open seat:

Safe Democratic
New Hampshire
New Mexico
New York (R)*
Wyoming

Likely Democratic
Arizona
Kansas (most likely to move to lean Dem, because of potential scandals)
Oklahoma (most likely one to move to safe over time, GOP has a credible challenger, but Henry's numbers are good)
Tennessee

Lean Democratic
Arkansas (R)*
Maryland (R)
Massachusetts (R)*
Ohio (R)*
Oregon
Pennsylvania

Toss Up
Alaska (R) (major uncertainty in a number of facets of this race makes me keep it at toss-up)
California (R) (Westly is the stronger challenger by far)
Colorado (R)*
Illinois (D)
Iowa (D)*
Maine (D)
Michigan (D) (recent polling has had this race more close, than the earlier Granholm lead we saw.  Besides, Michigan has internal dynamics that could put state incumbents in trouble)
Minnesota (R)
Wisconsin (D)

Lean Republican
Alabama (I simply don't think Riley is as strong as some of his other Southern Republican brethren)
Florida*
Nevada*
Rhode Island

Likely Republican
Georgia
Hawaii
South Carolina
Texas
Vermont

Solid Republican
Connecticut
Idaho*
Nebraska
South Dakota


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: 2,868,691 on May 31, 2006, 06:10:06 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?type=pred&year=2006&off=5&ev_c=0&ev_p=1&AL=1;*;4&AK=1;*;5&AZ=1;;5&AR=1;^;5&CA=1;*;4&CO=1;^;6&CT=2;;5&FL=2;;5&GA=2;;5&HI=2;;5&ID=2;;5&IL=1;;4&IA=1;;4&KS=1;;6&ME=1;;4&MD=1;*;4&MA=1;^;6&MI=1;;4&MN=1;*;4&NE=2;;6&NV=1;^;4&NH=1;;5&NM=1;;5&NY=1;^;6&OH=1;^;5&OK=1;;4&OR=1;;4&PA=1;;5&RI=1;*;4&SC=2;;5&SD=2;;5&TN=1;;5&TX=2;;3&VT=2;;5&WI=1;;5&WY=1;;5)

AL--Siegelman pulls off the upset
AK--Knowles enters the race and knocks off Murkowki
NV--Jim Gibson wins
RI--Fogarty knocks off Carcieri


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Gabu on May 31, 2006, 06:16:46 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?type=pred&year=2006&off=5&ev_c=0&ev_p=1&AL=1;*;4&AK=1;*;5&AZ=1;;5&AR=1;^;5&CA=1;*;4&CO=1;^;6&CT=2;;5&FL=2;;5&GA=2;;5&HI=2;;5&ID=2;;5&IL=1;;4&IA=1;;4&KS=1;;6&ME=1;;4&MD=1;*;4&MA=1;^;6&MI=1;;4&MN=1;*;4&NE=2;;6&NV=1;^;4&NH=1;;5&NM=1;;5&NY=1;^;6&OH=1;^;5&OK=1;;4&OR=1;;4&PA=1;;5&RI=1;*;4&SC=2;;5&SD=2;;5&TN=1;;5&TX=2;;3&VT=2;;5&WI=1;;5&WY=1;;5)

AL--Siegelman pulls off the upset
AK--Knowles enters the race and knocks off Murkowki
NV--Jim Gibson wins
RI--Fogarty knocks off Carcieri

This is the place where people come to make predictions, not to post their dreams.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: 2,868,691 on May 31, 2006, 09:50:29 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?type=pred&year=2006&off=5&ev_c=0&ev_p=1&AL=1;*;4&AK=1;*;5&AZ=1;;5&AR=1;^;5&CA=1;*;4&CO=1;^;6&CT=2;;5&FL=2;;5&GA=2;;5&HI=2;;5&ID=2;;5&IL=1;;4&IA=1;;4&KS=1;;6&ME=1;;4&MD=1;*;4&MA=1;^;6&MI=1;;4&MN=1;*;4&NE=2;;6&NV=1;^;4&NH=1;;5&NM=1;;5&NY=1;^;6&OH=1;^;5&OK=1;;4&OR=1;;4&PA=1;;5&RI=1;*;4&SC=2;;5&SD=2;;5&TN=1;;5&TX=2;;3&VT=2;;5&WI=1;;5&WY=1;;5)

AL--Siegelman pulls off the upset
AK--Knowles enters the race and knocks off Murkowki
NV--Jim Gibson wins
RI--Fogarty knocks off Carcieri

This is the place where people come to make predictions, not to post their dreams.
This map is quite plausible should the current growing anti-Republican trend continue...it's not like I gave the Dems states they don't have a chance in...I didn't even give them Florida!


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: ?????????? on June 01, 2006, 01:05:08 pm
Your colors are backwards TxIndy.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Nym90 on June 01, 2006, 09:48:40 pm
Harry, your map is not entirely implausible at all, but it is highly unlikely that the Democrats would do that well. Literally everything would have to go their way.

I admit that my map is also a bit on the optimistic side, but I do agree with you that there is likely to be a Democratic tide this fall.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: TexasGurl on June 01, 2006, 09:57:33 pm
(http://img315.imageshack.us/img315/9187/ge2006200p45of.png)


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Nym90 on June 01, 2006, 10:02:48 pm
Michigan as the only GOP pickup? Doubtful. It will stay Democrat unless Granholm makes some major gaffe or the national mood improves for the GOP.

And I'm all for being optimistic, but I don't see any way on God's green earth that the Democrats will pickup Connecticut.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: TexasGurl on June 01, 2006, 10:14:14 pm
Michigan as the only GOP pickup? Doubtful. It will stay Democrat unless Granholm makes some major gaffe or the national mood improves for the GOP.

And I'm all for being optimistic, but I don't see any way on God's green earth that the Democrats will pickup Connecticut.
Ye of little faith.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Gustaf on June 02, 2006, 03:58:16 am
Michigan as the only GOP pickup? Doubtful. It will stay Democrat unless Granholm makes some major gaffe or the national mood improves for the GOP.

And I'm all for being optimistic, but I don't see any way on God's green earth that the Democrats will pickup Connecticut.
Ye of little faith.

But why specifically Connecticut? Why not Texas, Maine or even Idaho?


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Republican Michigander on June 02, 2006, 02:26:45 pm
Pickups:
GOP - Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin
DEM - California, Ohio, New York, Alaska, Massachusetts

Tough Defenses but successful
GOP - Colorado, Maryland, Arkansas, Nevada, Minnesota, Alabama, Georgia, Rhode Island, Florida, Hawaii
DEM - Oregon, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arizona, Wyoming, Maine, New Hampshire

I'm going a little against the grain in Colorado and Illinois. I made a wildarsed guess with Hawaii wen I went with the incumbent. Oregon was a very tough call with the split democrats there, but usually they find a way to win.

I couldn't find how to transfer my gubenatorial map (RepublicanMich) to this, so I used a modified "Elec College" map shading out "tossups" as non-contests.

(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=1;3;6&AZ=1;10;5&AR=2;6;5&CA=1;55;5&CO=2;9;5&CT=2;7;5&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=2;4;5&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;21;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=2;7;4&KS=1;6;6&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=2;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=2;17;5&MN=2;10;5&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;31;5&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;5&OK=1;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=2;4;5&SC=2;8;5&SD=2;3;5&TN=1;11;5&TX=2;34;6&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;5&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=2;10;4&WY=1;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;5&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Sam Spade on June 07, 2006, 03:39:04 pm
With last night's primary in tow, I am moving California to Lean Rep.

As an update, I would also move Alaska to Lean Dem, for now.  PA is on the cusp of moving to Likely Dem if another poll comes in echoing Q and R.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Mr. Paleoconservative on June 13, 2006, 09:06:41 pm
My most recent prediction...

(http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2006/PREDMAPSP/ge20069737P2.png)


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: ?????????? on June 14, 2006, 12:13:38 am
What's the Oregon situation look like Reagan?


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Mr. Paleoconservative on June 14, 2006, 02:05:05 am
What's the Oregon situation look like Reagan?

Completely up in the air.  The Republicans have pro-choice big business friendly Ron Saxton, the Democrats have incompetent incumbent Teddy K, there is a liberal Independent Ben Westlund (R turned I) who should make the ballot, the Constitution Party has a solid candidate in Marry Starrett (Portland TV & Radio personality), the Libertarians have 2004 Sec. of State Candidate Richard Morley (Very smart, able to explain the Libertarian philosophy well), and the Greens have J. Keating (Typical burnt out Liberal).

The Governor's Mansion is completely up for grabs, and it is likely to be at least a three way race with Saxton, Teddy K, and Westlund.  That said, Starrett is picking up steam, and if Saxton screws up the Conservative vote may well completely be up for grabs making her a series player.   

Morley and Keating are 5% men, though Morley is very good, most of his constituency will go to Westlund.

It will be an interesting race for spectators, but as a person who is in the middle of it, who knows the players involved, it is even more fascinating.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 14, 2006, 02:07:48 am
there is a liberal Independent Ben Westlund (R turned I) who should make the ballot

I thought he was a conservative.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Mr. Paleoconservative on June 14, 2006, 02:34:41 am
there is a liberal Independent Ben Westlund (R turned I) who should make the ballot

I thought he was a conservative.

Not in the least.  Imagine John Anderson circa 1980.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 14, 2006, 12:29:27 pm
there is a liberal Independent Ben Westlund (R turned I) who should make the ballot

I thought he was a conservative.

Not in the least.  Imagine John Anderson circa 1980.

Oh, nevermind. I was thinking of Atkinson. Whatever happened to him?


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Mr. Paleoconservative on June 14, 2006, 01:11:19 pm
there is a liberal Independent Ben Westlund (R turned I) who should make the ballot

I thought he was a conservative.

Not in the least.  Imagine John Anderson circa 1980.

Oh, nevermind. I was thinking of Atkinson. Whatever happened to him?

22% is what happened.  The GOP rimary was (roughly) 22% (Atkinson) - 30% (Mannix) - 43% (Saxton) with one of the lowest primary election turnouts in state history.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Keystone Phil on June 14, 2006, 03:04:56 pm
22% is what happened.  The GOP rimary was (roughly) 22% (Atkinson) - 30% (Mannix) - 43% (Saxton) with one of the lowest primary election turnouts in state history.

I see. I didn't follow the OR primary since I was too busy with PA results. I remember looking into the OR candidates earlier in the year though and thought Atkinson would be the best. For whatever reason, I thought he might have dropped out.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: MAS117 on June 14, 2006, 03:24:10 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2006/PREDMAPSP/ge200647P3.png)


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: © tweed on June 15, 2006, 10:11:54 am
(http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2006/PREDMAPSP/ge200684P3.png)

Changes from last entry:

Alaska from D --> R: It looks like Murkowski is going to lose the primary.  A Republican who is not hated in the state will have a much better chance.  But this race remains very close and Knowles has a good chance.

Illinois from R --> D: Blagojevich sucks and I hate him, but he's doing slightly better in the polls now and looks to be a slight favorite.  However, he's still doing badly and isn't out of the woods yet by any stretch of the imagination.

Maine from R --> D: Baldacci isn't in the terrible shape that we originally thought.  He should win.

Michigan from D --> R: I didn't believe Granholm was in really serious trouble until a DeVos took the lead.  Clearly DeVos would win if the election was held today, but it isn't going to be held today, so Granholm is still breathing.  DeVos doesn't really fit that state well, and if Granholm can exploit that she can still salvage the victory.  But DeVos has to be the slight favorite at this point.

Rhode Island from R --> D: Carcieri is in serious trouble.  I don't exactly know why; my theory is that it's that medical marijuana bill he vetoed.  The race is pretty much tied now, but I'll give it to Fogarty at this point due to the general anti-GOP nature of 2006.

Minnesota and Wisconsin are too close to call now.  I left them with the incumbents until further notice.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Sam Spade on July 09, 2006, 02:53:14 pm
An August 1 update to be nice.  :)

Safe Democratic
Arizona
New Hampshire
New Mexico
New York (R)*
Tennessee
Wyoming

Likely Democratic
Kansas
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania

Lean Democratic
Alaska (R)
Arkansas (R)*
Illinois
Iowa*
Maryland (R)
Massachusetts (R)*
Ohio (R)*
Oregon
Wisconsin

Toss Up
Colorado (R)*
Maine (D)
Minnesota (R)
Rhode Island (R)

Lean Republican
California
Florida* (probably won't be here for long)
Georgia
Michigan (D)
Nevada*
South Carolina

Likely Republican
Alabama
Hawaii 
Texas
Vermont

Solid Republican
Connecticut
Idaho*
Nebraska
South Dakota


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Alcon on July 09, 2006, 03:06:57 pm
Any reason you don't have VT as Safe, Sam?  Always good to see your predictions.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Sam Spade on July 09, 2006, 03:13:52 pm
Any reason you don't have VT as Safe, Sam?  Always good to see your predictions.

In the polling, Douglas % not high enough for me.  Right now, it's sort of like Arizona:  I think it's heading to safe, but I'm playing it safe for the time being.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: 12th Doctor on July 16, 2006, 01:45:58 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;7&AK=2;3;3&AZ=1;10;5&AR=1;6;5&CA=1;55;4&CO=2;9;5&CT=2;7;7&DE=2;3;3&DC=0;3;8&FL=1;27;4&GA=2;15;7&HI=2;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;21;4&IN=1;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;4&LA=2;9;7&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;12;4&MI=1;17;4&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=1;11;4&MT=1;3;6&NV=2;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;6&NC=1;15;6&ND=2;3;7&OH=2;20;3&OK=1;7;6&OR=2;7;3&PA=1;21;4&RI=2;4;7&SC=2;8;7&SD=2;3;7&TN=1;11;4&TX=2;34;3&UT=2;5;7&VT=2;3;7&VA=0;13;5&WA=2;11;3&WV=1;5;6&WI=1;10;4&WY=1;3;5&ME=1;2;4&ME1=1;1;4&ME2=1;1;4&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;7&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)
Light Red/Blue--9% margin or less
Medium Red/Blue--b/w 9% and 18% margin
Dark Red/Blue--18% margin or greater (like Perdue will win b/c he saved Christmas...whew!)
So the new map will look like...
(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=0&ev_p=0&AL=2;9;7&AK=2;3;3&AZ=1;10;5&AR=1;6;5&CA=1;55;4&CO=2;9;5&CT=2;7;7&DE=2;3;3&DC=0;3;8&FL=1;27;4&GA=2;15;7&HI=2;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;21;4&IN=1;11;4&IA=1;7;4&KS=1;6;6&KY=1;8;4&LA=2;9;7&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;12;4&MI=1;17;4&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;6;7&MO=1;11;4&MT=1;3;6&NV=2;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;6&NC=1;15;6&ND=2;3;7&OH=2;20;3&OK=1;7;6&OR=2;7;3&PA=1;21;4&RI=2;4;7&SC=2;8;7&SD=2;3;7&TN=1;11;4&TX=2;34;3&UT=2;5;7&VT=2;3;7&VA=1;13;5&WA=2;11;3&WV=1;5;6&WI=1;10;4&WY=1;3;5&ME=1;2;4&ME1=1;1;4&ME2=1;1;4&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;7&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)

Huh?  Please explain.  Not every state is having a guber election next year, and the ones you've included (e.g. WA) don't make sense.
Sorry...I meant to put "Predictions for 2006/7/8"...it must've been erased.

Send me some of what you're smoking.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: © tweed on August 11, 2006, 08:31:50 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2006/PREDMAPSP/ge200684P4.png)

2007 Party Breakdown: 29 D/21 R


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Sam Spade on August 15, 2006, 11:29:14 pm
August 15 Update:

Alaska:  From Lean D to Toss-up based on Palin's polling and Murkowski's soon-to-be demise.
Colorado:  From Toss-up to Lean D.
Ohio:  From Lean D to Likely D.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Sam Spade on August 23, 2006, 12:45:31 pm
Moving Michigan back to Toss-Up.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Frodo on August 26, 2006, 01:04:19 pm
Key

Dark Red -Democratic Gain
Pink -Democratic Hold

Dark Blue -Republican Gain
Light Blue -Republican Hold

(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;3&AK=1;3;9&AZ=1;10;3&AR=1;6;9&CA=2;55;3&CO=1;9;9&CT=2;7;3&DE=1;3;3&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;3&GA=2;15;3&HI=2;4;3&ID=2;4;3&IL=1;21;3&IN=0;11;5&IA=2;7;9&KS=1;6;3&KY=1;8;9&LA=2;9;9&MD=2;10;3&MA=2;12;3&MI=1;17;3&MN=1;10;9&MS=2;6;3&MO=0;11;3&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;3&NH=1;4;3&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;3&NY=1;31;9&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;9&OK=1;7;3&OR=1;7;3&PA=1;21;3&RI=2;4;3&SC=2;8;3&SD=2;3;3&TN=1;11;3&TX=2;34;3&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;3&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=2;10;9&WY=1;3;3&ME=1;2;3&ME1=1;1;3&ME2=1;1;3&NE=2;2;3&NE1=2;1;3&NE2=2;1;3&NE3=2;1;3)

This includes predictions for both the 2006 and 2007 gubernatorial elections.




Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Nym90 on August 28, 2006, 01:24:20 am
Fordo, any particular reason why Wisconsin and Iowa go Republican but Michigan and Minnesota go Democratic? That would certainly seem an unlikely combination given the polls currently.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Nym90 on August 28, 2006, 10:12:06 am
http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php?year=2004

Um, is that supposed to be a response to me? I'm not sure. In any event, you might be implying that Wisconsin and Iowa are more Republican on the Presidential level than Michigan and Minnesota, which is true, but it would seem the Democrats have a better chance in the Governor's races this year in Wisconsin and Iowa than they do in Michigan and Minnesota (although I personally feel at least 3 of the 4 will go Democratic, and quite possibly all 4).


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: © tweed on October 06, 2006, 07:07:13 pm
Maryland is over with.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Mr. Paleoconservative on October 14, 2006, 10:59:53 pm
Here are my updated predictions...
(http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2006/PREDMAPSP/ge20069737P3.png)


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Snowguy716 on October 21, 2006, 01:20:07 pm
The race in Minnesota is neck and neck.  The last few polls have showed Hatch with a lead or a dead heat. 

The most recent poll put Pawlenty (R) and Hatch (DFL) at a dead heat, but also gave Klobuchar a 7 point lead over Kennedy, the narrowest lead since July, so I have reason to think that this poll gave Republicans a 1-2% advantage.

The governor's race in MN will mostly be determined by GOTV.. the Democrats are fired up statewide, but because we have so many close races in the state, the Republicans will also be fired up.  Minnesota will have a very high turnout rate for this election, and it's going to go to either Pawlenty or Hatch with a very slim lead.  My guess would something like 50-48% for Hatch.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: 12th Doctor on October 27, 2006, 12:20:21 pm
Key

Dark Red -Democratic Gain
Pink -Democratic Hold

Dark Blue -Republican Gain
Light Blue -Republican Hold

(http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;3&AK=1;3;9&AZ=1;10;3&AR=1;6;9&CA=2;55;3&CO=1;9;9&CT=2;7;3&DE=1;3;3&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;3&GA=2;15;3&HI=2;4;3&ID=2;4;3&IL=1;21;3&IN=0;11;5&IA=2;7;9&KS=1;6;3&KY=1;8;9&LA=2;9;9&MD=2;10;3&MA=2;12;3&MI=1;17;3&MN=1;10;9&MS=2;6;3&MO=0;11;3&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;3&NH=1;4;3&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;3&NY=1;31;9&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;9&OK=1;7;3&OR=1;7;3&PA=1;21;3&RI=2;4;3&SC=2;8;3&SD=2;3;3&TN=1;11;3&TX=2;34;3&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;3&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=2;10;9&WY=1;3;3&ME=1;2;3&ME1=1;1;3&ME2=1;1;3&NE=2;2;3&NE1=2;1;3&NE2=2;1;3&NE3=2;1;3)

This includes predictions for both the 2006 and 2007 gubernatorial elections.




I agree with this map, except Minnesota.  I think Pawlenty will hold


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: © tweed on October 27, 2006, 02:43:14 pm
I agree with this map, except Minnesota.  I think Pawlenty will hold

So you think Healey and Ehrlich are going to win?


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: nick on October 27, 2006, 05:24:42 pm
Ehrlich are going to win?

Thats not out of the question now.  See my post here. (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=47848.0).

Also, Ehrlich received the endorsement of the WaPo this week.  On top of that, 20 year old not-guilty DUI has suddenly popped up.

The dynamics of this race have changed slightly.  Its probably a toss-up now.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: © tweed on October 27, 2006, 06:52:42 pm
I really think you're guilty of overthinking that race, Nick.  There's really no evidence to suggest O'Malley will lose.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: nick on October 28, 2006, 12:48:14 am
I really think you're guilty of overthinking that race, Nick.  There's really no evidence to suggest O'Malley will lose.

I hope your right.  Trust me I do. 

Early morning tomorrow with a full day of campaigning for Martin.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Saturday's Cab Ride Home on November 03, 2006, 01:07:51 am
I really think you're guilty of overthinking that race, Nick.  There's really no evidence to suggest O'Malley will lose.

I hope you're right.  Trust me I do. 

Early morning tomorrow with a full day of campaigning for Martin.

Pet peeve of mine ;)

It's great you're doing all this campaigning though. I only wish my schedule was open enough to do it that much. I did sign up for doing two 4 1/2 hour shifts on GOTV stuff this weekend though.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Soaring Eagle on November 03, 2006, 02:29:46 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;5&AK=1;3;5&AZ=2;10;6&AR=1;6;5&CA=2;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=2;7;6&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=2;4;6&ID=1;4;5&IL=1;21;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=1;7;5&KS=1;6;6&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=1;17;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=1;5;5&NH=1;4;6&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;6&NY=1;31;6&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;5&OK=1;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=2;3;6&TN=1;11;6&TX=2;34;3&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;6&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;5&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)

This is my final prediction. I might make last-minute changes if anything happens in AK, ID, or NV, since those are pure tossups.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Gustaf on November 05, 2006, 07:55:00 am
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;5&AK=1;3;5&AZ=2;10;6&AR=1;6;5&CA=2;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=2;7;6&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=2;4;6&ID=1;4;5&IL=1;21;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=1;7;5&KS=1;6;6&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=1;17;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=1;5;5&NH=1;4;6&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;6&NY=1;31;6&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;5&OK=1;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=2;3;6&TN=1;11;6&TX=2;34;3&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;6&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;5&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)

This is my final prediction. I might make last-minute changes if anything happens in AK, ID, or NV, since those are pure tossups.

Lol, I hope you're not serious...


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Soaring Eagle on November 05, 2006, 01:12:42 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;5&AK=1;3;5&AZ=2;10;6&AR=1;6;5&CA=2;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=2;7;6&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=2;4;6&ID=1;4;5&IL=1;21;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=1;7;5&KS=1;6;6&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=1;17;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=1;5;5&NH=1;4;6&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;6&NY=1;31;6&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;5&OK=1;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=2;3;6&TN=1;11;6&TX=2;34;3&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;6&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;5&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)

This is my final prediction. I might make last-minute changes if anything happens in AK, ID, or NV, since those are pure tossups.

Lol, I hope you're not serious...

I am, though some of those could just as easily go the other way. ID, for example, came pretty much out of nowhere. Have you seen those polls?

I'm also tempted to give NV back to the GOP. I'm not sure how this whole bit with Gibbons is going to play out.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Gustaf on November 06, 2006, 10:47:25 am
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;5&AK=1;3;5&AZ=2;10;6&AR=1;6;5&CA=2;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=2;7;6&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=2;4;6&ID=1;4;5&IL=1;21;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=1;7;5&KS=1;6;6&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=1;17;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=1;5;5&NH=1;4;6&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;6&NY=1;31;6&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;5&OK=1;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=2;3;6&TN=1;11;6&TX=2;34;3&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;6&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;5&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)

This is my final prediction. I might make last-minute changes if anything happens in AK, ID, or NV, since those are pure tossups.

Lol, I hope you're not serious...

I am, though some of those could just as easily go the other way. ID, for example, came pretty much out of nowhere. Have you seen those polls?

I'm also tempted to give NV back to the GOP. I'm not sure how this whole bit with Gibbons is going to play out.

Idaho I have no problem with, but Alaska? And Nevada? Not to mention Rhode Island...but, oh well. It isn't super-crazy I guess.


Title: Re: Post your 2006 Gubernatorial Election Prediction Maps
Post by: Soaring Eagle on November 06, 2006, 06:26:25 pm
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;5&AK=1;3;5&AZ=2;10;6&AR=1;6;5&CA=2;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=2;7;6&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;5&HI=2;4;6&ID=1;4;5&IL=1;21;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=1;7;5&KS=1;6;6&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=1;17;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=1;5;5&NH=1;4;6&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;6&NY=1;31;6&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;5&OK=1;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=2;3;6&TN=1;11;6&TX=2;34;3&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;6&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;5&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)

This is my final prediction. I might make last-minute changes if anything happens in AK, ID, or NV, since those are pure tossups.

Lol, I hope you're not serious...

I am, though some of those could just as easily go the other way. ID, for example, came pretty much out of nowhere. Have you seen those polls?

I'm also tempted to give NV back to the GOP. I'm not sure how this whole bit with Gibbons is going to play out.

Idaho I have no problem with, but Alaska? And Nevada? Not to mention Rhode Island...but, oh well. It isn't super-crazy I guess.

I'm a bit of a combination between an optimist and a hack. ;)

Last minute updates:
(http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=1;3;5&AZ=1;10;6&AR=1;6;5&CA=2;55;5&CO=1;9;5&CT=2;7;6&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;8&FL=2;27;5&GA=2;15;6&HI=2;4;6&ID=1;4;5&IL=1;21;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=1;7;5&KS=1;6;6&KY=0;8;5&LA=0;9;5&MD=1;10;5&MA=1;12;6&MI=1;17;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;11;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=2;5;5&NH=1;4;6&NJ=0;15;5&NM=1;5;6&NY=1;31;6&NC=0;15;5&ND=0;3;6&OH=1;20;6&OK=1;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;5&SC=2;8;6&SD=2;3;6&TN=1;11;6&TX=2;34;3&UT=0;5;7&VT=2;3;6&VA=0;13;5&WA=0;11;5&WV=0;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=1;3;6&ME=1;2;4&ME1=1;1;4&ME2=1;1;4&NE=2;2;6&NE1=2;1;6&NE2=2;1;6&NE3=2;1;7)