Talk Elections

Warren-mentum!

There's also this:

Favorability:
Biden 66/24 (80/14 in May)
Warren 74/19 (63/24 in May)

Biden campaign ought to prioritize early states. His lead in SC and other Super Tuesday states might not remain as strong if he loses both IA and NH (maybe NV too).

Well then. Looks like I'm voting Warren in 2020 if this holds up.

LOL Sanders.

If Warren can keep her current position, she looks kinda set to possibly win the nomination, or at least duke it out with Biden.

SHOOK.

Sanders is the clear loser of the Warren surge and I don't see what he can do differently to win over new voters. Everyone's heard his stump speech before and if they havent taken to it yet, whats going to change their mind down the road?

LOL Harris.

And so glad to see Mayor Pete still climbing!

Wow.  If Warren wins IA NH and NV she has a real shot of beating back the Biden landslides in the South.

Speaking as someone who likes Sanders, if he can't do better than this in NH, he really needs to think about dropping out and endorsing Warren. Warren is ideologically very similar to him, so if she wins, his goal of influencing policy within the Democratic Party will have been a big success.

Jeez...

As I was saying...

Warren might be peaking 2-3 months too early ...

Well, that's disappointing.

NH polling has been all over the place though.

This is a huge blow to Sanders if these numbers are accurate. No way he can win without NH. But I would also say the same to Warren. Warren has clearly taken the 2nd place spot now, even if the national polling is still close. The early states (sadly) are still definitive to the 'narrative' of success to each campaign.

And thank god Tulsi qualified. Now I can't wait to see CNN's gameshow to see if there are two debates and if so who's paired up with who. I would love to see a Tulsi vs Kamala KO round 2!

Except that her favorability numbers show she has a lot of room to grow.

Tulsi will be gunning for Warren this time.

Possibly, but unlike Harris and Pete(and the 2016 Republican primary field), her rise has been slow and steady. That points to her actually winning over voters and not being the flavor of the month.  

But also a lot of room and time left for the others to attack her ...

Warren isn't a flavor of the month candidate. She runs a good campaign and her opponents aren't some unknowns with room to grow.
And who says that she has peaked?

Yeah, the big thing is that if she wins the first two, she essentially knocks out Sanders.

Biden's going to be very hard to defeat long-term because of his strong support among blue-collar and black voters, but this will get her into a one-on-one fight with him, which is what she needs.

And unlike a Harris or an O'Rourke, her rise has been incredibly linear overtime, and not just some reaction by soft supporters to a single breakout moment.

Exactly. That's how you build a hard coalition of supporters, which is incredibly hard to break afterwards.

Disappointed in Yang's number, but ecstatic about Gabbard's. :)

Pete & Liz's numbers!!!!!!

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NUT!

Sanders doesn't have much of a path if he pulls numbers like this in NH.

At least this will be Gabbard’s last debate

Meh, Biden's numbers could be better. We'll see what happens, as long as Liz can't make inroads with African Americans, her path remains narrow even if she wins both Iowa and New Hampshire (which is far from granted). She could very well be the Ben Carson of 2020.

The Bern is obviously in deep trouble as multiple polls have shown. His die hard supporters may deny it, but he made a misscalculation to enter the race. A decent number of his 2016 voters only chose him because they disliked Hillary.

And it looks like Kamala is done. The Marco Rubio or even Scott Walker of 2020.

I'd say that IA/NH are must wins for Warren/Sanders, and she's getting the better of him in both right now. But there's still a long way left to go.

That said, things start to get really, really interesting if Warren takes both IA and NH. It definitely wouldn't guarantee her the nomination, especially if Biden can hold down the fort with the black vote (particularly in the South), but it gives her a very credible path. Biden will likely win SC and the other Southern states barring something wildly unexpected, but margins matter. Will he be able to win them by the ~50+ point massive landslides that Hillary did? If so, he'll probably still take the nomination after much angst. If not, he'd be in serious danger of losing.

And LOL at Gabbard making the debate anyway after all the breathless commentary and spilled ink regarding "riggage." If she wasn't polling so abysmally she wouldn't have been teetering on the edge of qualification to the point that interpretation of a single poll would make any difference regardless.

I’m curious to see the primary polls after this Ukraine thing, which looks like it’ll have the potential to gone on a while. I think it has a lot of potential to suck all of Warren’s momentum away while the spotlight is clearly on Trump and Biden and makes Biden look sympathetic

Nh/IA are must wins for anyone not named Biden.

Very close.
What is going on with Bernie? It seems that he is faltering in many polls, everywhere.
Sanders should be looking really good in NH.

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People start thinking that it might be better for the Democratic party if they nominate a Democrat.

Carson didn't even come in second place in a single state, lol.  Horrible analogy.

Warren's rise started when she was one of the first major candidate to call for impeachment. If anything, the Ukraine scandal helps her.

The Ukraine scandal is all about Trump and Biden. No one will care that Warren is one of the 150+ Dems calling for impeachment.

This is the best thing Biden could have hoped for to give a boost to his flailing campaign

Guess we'll find out but i cant say i agree.

The best analogy is Bernie 2016. With the added complication that Bernie is threatening to play spoiler, and he's definitely spiteful enough to stay in even when it becomes clear he doesn't have a chance.

Of course he did. Iowa is just one of them: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html#polls

The winner effect. People like me who want to stop Biden will cross over to Warren.

RIP Bernie & Kamala

Obama was given 99% odds to win NH on the day it voted, so a lot can change from September.

The difference is that Carson's surge was contained to about a month. Warren's been rising in the polls for several months now, and all indications are that many Sanders voters are switching to her, rather than vice-versa.

Remarkable how the Bernie boosters simultaneously believe that he will bring about a political revolution with wide popular support and also (correctly) recognize that him winning the Democratic nomination is an extreme long shot. You'd think if he could do the former then he wouldn't be stuck on the later.

He already brought out the revolution (with the exception of UBI). Now he can retire with the highest form of dignity, something which I expect will happen either after Iowa or New Hampshire.

Just want to throw out I have yet to see any Gabbard supporters taking back what they said about the DNC rigging all the polls and changing all the requirements at the last minute to keep Gabbard out of the debates.

Don't be a bad sports Crumpets.

They are too busy today warning us that Warren is Charles Koch in sheep's clothing.

Why do Democrats hate other Democrats so extremely much??????? Like seriously?????????

Gabbard is 100% most definitely one of the three most likely vice presidential candidates on the Democratic side out there. So you better get used to her. Seriously.

Gabbard has zero chance of being a VP nom. She's a totally disloyal opportunist, no one would want her on their ticket, and she adds nothing anyway. Certainly not Warren, who has much better choices.

Gabbard has probably less than a 10% chance of becoming a VP, unless Yang wins. Then it soars to about an 80% chance suddenly. I can't even imagine who would be Yang's second choice after her.

Out of interest, why do you think Gabbard would be so high on Yang's VP list?

Surely, if Yang (somehow) won the nomination, he'd want to do something similar to other presidents with little political experience, (think Eisenhower, Trump) and pick a skilled political operator, like a high profile Senator, or successful Governor?

I'd think he'd be more attracted to a Senator like Michael Bennet, Brian Schatz, or Amy Klobachar, or a Governor like Steve Bullock, or Roy Cooper.

This aged well.

Pick your spots when bumping threads like these.

Lol.  Owned.

The state of a race can shift over the course of five months? Incredible. My mind is blown. This must be a rare occurrence, and these polls surely must be bumped every time it occurs.