Talk Elections

CBS/YouGov polls of the IA/NH/SC:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2020-democratic-polls-elizabeth-warren-extends-lead-across-early-states-new-hampshire-draws-even-with-biden-in-iowa/

Iowa:
Biden 22%
Warren 22%
Sanders 21%
Buttigieg 14%
Harris 5%
Steyer 3%
Klobuchar 2%
Booker 2%
O’Rourke 2%
Bennet 1%
Gabbard 1%
Williamson 1%
Ryan 1%
Castro, Yang, Delaney, Bullock, Messam, Sestak 0%

New Hampshire:
Warren 32%
Biden 24%
Sanders 17%
Buttigieg 7%
Yang 5%
Harris 4%
Steyer 4%
Klobuchar 2%
Gabbard 2%
Booker 1%
O’Rourke 1%
Ryan 1%
Sestak, Williamson, Messam, Bullock, Cadstro, Bennet, Delaney 0%

South Carolina:
Biden 43%
Warren 18%
Sanders 16%
Harris 7%
Buttigieg 4%
Booker 3%
Steyer 2%
O’Rourke 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Yang 1%
Williamson 1%
Ryan 1%
Bennet 1%
Bullock, Delaney, Castro, Gabbard, Messam, Sestak 0%

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Basically a three way tie in Iowa? Im getting 2008 flashbacks.

What are the odds of Mayor Pete! actually winning the state in an upset?

If Sanders dont finish in 1st in one if these, he is finished

And then they also have a poll of all early primary states, defined as the first four states plus Super Tuesday states:

Warren 31%
Biden 25%
Sanders 17%
Harris 7%
Buttigieg 5%
O’Rourke 4%
Booker 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Castro 1%
Yang 1%
Steyer 1%
Bennet 1%
Williamson, Gabbard, Ryan, Delaney, Bullock, Messam, Sestak 0%

Delegate projection from this result:

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If he's actually in 4th right now, I'd wager the chances of an upset to be small. He needs one of the top three to implode and for their supporters to switch to him so he's above the threshold. If he's in 4th, chances are the situation is reversed and his supporters have to go somewhere else come the caucus.

Here's another way to look at it.

Iowa

Warren/Sanders: 43
Biden: 22

New Hampshire

Warren/Sanders: 49
Biden: 24

South Carolina

Biden: 43
Warren/Sanders: 34

Biden seems to be helped in Iowa by high % for Buttigieg and some others. There's no way Biden wins Iowa with over 30%, and there's a pretty large chance of nobody getting over 30% there. But these polls still show one main thing: Sanders is still a major contender in this race.

And Biden's firewall of Super Tuesday doesn't seem to be holding up. If he's losing all the states combined he's very likely losing all non-south states.

He's already finished.

If he knew what's good for both his health and his progressive ideals, he would already be out of the race.

No actually, they don't show that. If anything they just show he's spoiling the election for Warren. Her overall numbers nationwide and in early states have been consistently better than his for some time now. There is no sign that's going to change, especially after his heart attack. All he is doing is dragging her down with some diehards who can't let go.

That said, you can't just add all his numbers to Warren's. While I have no doubt most of them would go to her, some would go to Biden and others. But she would almost certainly take a decisive lead in IA and NH, and be much closer in SC, if he dropped out.

I mean for Christ's sake, the man is down big to two candidates in New Hampshire, his next door neighbor state that gave him 60% of the vote in 2016. If that isn't a death knell I don't know what is.

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Yikes?

I’ll be interested to see what happens to Iowa polls when they go to a Likely Voter Screen.

Welp. Four more years it is.

You’ve got to be ing kidding me.

Moderates do so well. Just look at JBE who did just as well as Clinton in most rural areas of Louisiana

You did the same sh**t with the House elections.

What this poll confirms, at least for me, is that whoever wins big in the early states is likely going to be the nominee. There wont be some large, deadly protracted battle like in 2008. So far, Warren is the candidate who can win in the early states, and even with the ST South considered, she still leads in overall delegate count(and this is without factoring in how voters would likely shift towards her in the case that she wins the early states).

Who knows, we may have the primary decided by Super Tuesday instead of the previously widespread idea that we would have a brokered convention.

Should we not add Harris's vote share to the Biden bloc.  What is left of Harris's support I suspect will go Biden either tactically or just directly if and when she drops out.

As far as I can tell, most of Harris’s former supporters fled to Warren, not Biden.  I’m not sure why the rest of them would go to Biden.

Crosstabs for the poll of the early states combined:

men:
Warren 28%
Biden 24%
Sanders 17%

women:
Warren 33%
Biden 27%
Sanders 17%

age 18-29:
Sanders 29%
Warren 26%
Biden 13%
O’Rourke 7%
Buttigieg 6%

age 65+:
Biden 40%
Warren 33%
Harris 7%
Buttigieg 6%
Sanders 5%

white:
Warren 38%
Biden 20%
Sanders 15%
Buttigieg 8%
Harris 6%

black:
Biden 44%
Warren 16%
Sanders 15%
Harris 11%

Hispanic:
Biden 27%
Sanders 24%
Warren 20%
O’Rourke 10%
Harris 7%

liberal:
Warren 38%
Biden 19%
Sanders 18%

moderate:
Biden 38%
Warren 19%
Sanders 15%

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Here's another way to look at it:

Iowa

Biden/Warren/Sanders: 65
Buttigieg: 14

New Hampshire

Biden/Warren/Sanders: 73
Buttigieg: 7

South Carolina

Biden/Warren/Sanders: 77
Harris: 7

I wonder if the Biden campaign is seriously hoping the southern states will save their butts. It's not like those SC numbers are written in stone, especially not if Biden loses the first three states.

Will need to see other polls before I believe Warren has lost the lead in IA. NH numbers are great though.

Buttigieg went from 7% in their last IA poll to 14% this time, an even bigger increase than Warren had. Looks like he might be catching on there.

Biden led Warren by 12 points in their last poll a month ago.

Why didn’t they poll Nevada?!?!? They did it last time!

Nevada's actually part of the entire early states sample, but for some reason CBS isn't showing the results for that particular state.

This underlines how important Iowa for the Biden campaign is. He must edge out a win here to gain early momentum. Sure, he could be winning without any early state other than South Carolina, but it would be a fight I'd like to avoid.

If that's the PV after Super Tuesday, I Warren has this won.  Biden's base states are almost all in.  Warren still has much of the Midwest and Western/Plains Bernie 2016 states to go. 

Also interesting how well Mayor Pete is doing in Iowa.  Can he pull an Obama 2008 there and sneak up between Biden and Warren as Sanders fades?  That looks like the last major opportunity for a candidate outside of the current top 3 to carry a state. 

This Question here is a massive Problem for Joe Biden.

More interesting stuff:

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1183418591447793666

It's a shame they didn't put out the Nevada numbers.

Welp. A bunch of marlarkey this is.

And I'm not ing kidding you.

Actually, among Sanders supporters, Biden is higher than Warren for second choice.

Democrats dont want Biden. He only poured in 15 M, online donations are ar an all time low for him. The only voters that want Biden are 55 and older folks, whom Rassy phone polls. Warren winning 49 and under crowd

Rassy polls often wrong as they poll only lifeline alert bracelets and answer of "ive fallen and cant get up," filed as vote for Biden. Pollsters not adjusting for new secular era of Warren Dem party

My post was simply an observation, one that two progressive firebrands are easily overtaking the established frontrunner. I did not insinuate that Warren and Sanders voters are interchangeable and that their supporters will group up, and if you know me you'll know I've stated many times that most Warren supporters will not go to Sanders, or vise versa. But your streak of being condescending towards me continues.

That’s an exaggeration. I said Dems +15. I was off yes but you act like I said it was going to be a Red wave or something. I had GOP +2 in the Senate.... which was correct.

It’s not like I want these things to happen but I call it how I see it and I see it that a President Elizabeth Warren is not going to happen. It just isn’t

This assertion is based off of nothing tangible. I hope if she's nominated you do more than just sit on the internet hand wringing about how she's going to lose.

Pretty much just like the "Trump will never be President!" takes of 2016.

"It’s not like I want these things to happen but I call it how I see it and I see it that a President Donald Trump is not going to happen. It just isn’t" - countless blue avatars in 2015/2016

Well, everyone, he said it! It's over you can all go home.

New Poll: Iowa President by YouGov on 2019-10-11 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1920191011178)

Summary:

Biden:	22%
Warren:	22%
Sanders:	21%
Buttigieg:	14%
Other:	21%
Undecided:	0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6m3FrMzNqO5OUczeGdZaTdDWlRxYUVIZ3pJd3NNN1NiQWxr/view)

New Poll: New Hampshire President by YouGov on 2019-10-11 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3320191011178)

Summary:

Warren:	32%
Biden:	24%
Sanders:	17%
Buttigieg:	7%
Other:	20%
Undecided:	0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6m3FrMzNqO5eVhMWWtnVWwzblZBbjU3WGgybkVWUHJLLXM0/view)

New Poll: South Carolina President by YouGov on 2019-10-11 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4520191011178)

Summary:

Biden:	43%
Warren:	18%
Sanders:	16%
Harris:	7%
Other:	16%
Undecided:	0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6m3FrMzNqO5b1lVMU5PYWRGV0I0b3pjbEF6WjZaS2xnXzF3/view)