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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => 2020 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Frenchrepublican on October 17, 2019, 11:29:59 am



Title: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: Frenchrepublican on October 17, 2019, 11:29:59 am
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/iowa-2020-dead-heat-with-biden-and-warren-mayor-pete-continues-to-build-and-sanders-slides


Title: Re: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: SnowLabrador on October 17, 2019, 11:32:12 am
Safe R. Iowa polls always overestimate Democrats.


Title: Re: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 17, 2019, 11:33:59 am
Gonna be close given Ernst's dropping popularity.


Title: Re: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: Frenchrepublican on October 17, 2019, 11:34:50 am
Gonna be close given Ernst's dropping popularity.

Based of MC ? Lol. Morning consult numbers are unreliable


Title: Re: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: Frenchrepublican on October 17, 2019, 11:36:08 am
Safe R. Iowa polls always overestimate Democrats.

Likely R in my mind.

But I agree with you, Ernst will probably win 54/45 in the end.


Title: Re: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: Cory Booker on October 17, 2019, 11:38:30 am
Ernst under 50, Collins and Ernst look vulnerable. Sabato ratings have been too generous to both Collins and Ernst.


Title: Re: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: Xing on October 17, 2019, 11:44:41 am
If Ernst does overperform Trump by 5, she has nothing to worry about (though she won't win by 20, lol), but Memerson isn't the most reliable pollster.


Title: Re: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: redjohn on October 17, 2019, 11:48:50 am
Yeah, Ernst isn't losing her seat. Likely R.


Title: Re: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: Cory Booker on October 17, 2019, 11:52:07 am
Yeah, Ernst isn't losing her seat. Likely R.

This is an Emerson poll, which uses phone polls, online polls which are more favorable to Dems can easily have this race 3-4 points.  Ernst is not Safe


Title: Re: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: Skye on October 17, 2019, 11:54:58 am
The real story is this:

Quote
The Democratic Primary for US Senate is wide open with no clear frontrunner  - 74% of Democratic primary voters are still undecided. Theresa Greenfield is at 11%, Michael Franken and Eddie Mauro are both tied at 6% while Kimberly Graham is at 4%.


Title: Re: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: Impeachment Inquiry on October 17, 2019, 12:51:12 pm
I pray that this horrible woman loses her seat simply for the fact that she called the shooting at UCSB an accident. With that said, I'd be very surprised if she won again because the tariffs have done Iowa no favors and the midterms were not friendly to Republicans at the federal level. Plus, if I'm not mistaken she was out raised this last reporting cycle.

I'm also not convinced that she's not an accidental Senator who stumbled into office in a midterm. There is also the GOP logic that undecideds break for the challenger, so if you factor that in Ernst is set to lose 53-47.


Title: Re: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: Zaybay on October 17, 2019, 01:23:30 pm
While it is Emerson, I do agree with the poll that the race is competative. Though it stands at lean/likely R at the moment, it will be interesting to see how it evolves.

The real story is this:

Quote
The Democratic Primary for US Senate is wide open with no clear frontrunner  - 74% of Democratic primary voters are still undecided. Theresa Greenfield is at 11%, Michael Franken and Eddie Mauro are both tied at 6% while Kimberly Graham is at 4%.

I cant tell if these numbers are due to Emerson being Emerson, of if this is the actual status of the primary. I would believe either explanation, TBH.


Title: Re: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: Cory Booker on October 17, 2019, 02:42:24 pm
Ernst is being hurt by the controversial heart beat bill Reynolds signed


Title: Re: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 17, 2019, 05:23:55 pm
Safe R as always, yawn.


Title: Re: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: Politician on October 17, 2019, 05:25:57 pm
Governor Molly Kelly, Still-Senator Heidi Heitkamp, Inevtiable Dem Nominee Joe Biden and Governor-elect Jim Hood recommend this post.

And yeah I know I've been wrong before but the point is to call out overconfident, silly predictions.


Title: Re: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 17, 2019, 05:31:15 pm
Governor Molly Kelly, Still-Senator Heidi Heitkamp, Inevtiable Dem Nominee Joe Biden and Governor-elect Jim Hood recommend this post.

And yeah I know I've been wrong before but the point is to call out overconfident, silly predictions.

Even if itís "only" Likely R, thereís no way this will be even close to the tipping point Senate race.


Title: Re: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: Politician on October 17, 2019, 05:33:02 pm
Governor Molly Kelly, Still-Senator Heidi Heitkamp, Inevtiable Dem Nominee Joe Biden and Governor-elect Jim Hood recommend this post.

And yeah I know I've been wrong before but the point is to call out overconfident, silly predictions.

Even if itís "only" Likely R, thereís no way this will be even close to the tipping point Senate race.
Not implausible it is the tipping point seat, although I wouldn't bet on it. Certainly more likely to be so than TX, KS, AK, MT (LOL), or AL (LOL).


Title: Re: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 17, 2019, 05:36:31 pm
Not implausible it is the tipping point seat, although I wouldn't bet on it. Certainly more likely to be so than TX, KS, AK, MT (LOL), or AL (LOL).

It really is, though. Sorry, but ME/NC/GA-R/GA-S/AZ/CO/TX/MI would all flip before IA, and maybe a few other races too.


Title: Re: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: Politician on October 17, 2019, 05:40:10 pm
Not implausible it is the tipping point seat, although I wouldn't bet on it. Certainly more likely to be so than TX, KS, AK, MT (LOL), or AL (LOL).

It really is, though. Sorry, but ME/NC/GA-R/GA-S/AZ/CO/TX/MI would all flip before IA, and maybe a few other races too.
Already backtracking. I remember when you said MT/AK/KS/AL/even MS were more winnable for Dems than IA.


Title: Re: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: Zaybay on October 17, 2019, 07:24:49 pm
I dont agree that IA is likely to be the tipping point state(I would give the medal to NC/ME/GA for that one), but the idea that the race is completely noncompetitive is also nonsense.


Title: Re: Ernst leads Greenfield 47/40 (Emerson)
Post by: kongress on October 17, 2019, 09:38:22 pm
Safe D, yawn. I know Iowa like the back of my hand. Happy Iowa farmers are angry that fascism has taken over the US Senate, and Ernst doesn't have the u kno what that Grassley has. Prepare for a humiliating crush of the Iowa Republican Party in 2020.


Title: IA: Emerson College: Ernst Leading in Iowa
Post by: Dave Leip on November 04, 2019, 01:21:48 pm
New Poll: Iowa Senator by Emerson College on 2019-10-16 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2020/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=19220191016223)

Summary: D: 40%, R: 47%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/iowa-2020-dead-heat-with-biden-and-warren-mayor-pete-continues-to-build-and-sanders-slides)