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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: c r a b c a k e on October 20, 2019, 04:15:15 pm



Title: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: c r a b c a k e on October 20, 2019, 04:15:15 pm
Happening today. Evo Morales, in office since 2006, is running for an unprecedented fourth term following the controversial Supreme Tribunal decision to strike down term limits (that were in the constitution).

Candidates

Evo Morales (MAS) -  Born into poverty, Evo Morales cut his political teeth as head of a union for coca growers which fought against War on Drugs attacks on their livelihoods. Ultimately this outlook took him into direct conflict with various Bolivian governments, which he saw as selling out a traditional Andean pastime at the behest of foreign Yankees. He took his union into the field of politics, eventually coming over to take over a largely defunct Falangist (yeah) party, MAS, and beyond his initial focus on legalizing coca to a broader socialist outlook. Luckily for him, the Bolivian business and political elite were dysfunctional, venal and dominated by whites in a very non-white country, and their response to him exploiting the crisis created after the Water and Gas Wars were shambolic: trying to expel him from Congress on dubious grounds, cycling through several hapless Presidents and rather blatantly trying to get the Bush administration to bail them out. In 2005, Morales won with a majority in the first round, a feat which he repeated in 2009 and 2014.

Evo Morales's Presidency, for all its leftist bluster, is very similar to the sort of social democracy we are familiar with elsewhere, avoiding calls to nationalize mines and pushing for pro-growth policies with largely balanced budgets. He took credit (fairly or unfairly, according to your political persuasion) for an extraordinary economic boom: cuts to poverty, inequality, unemployment, the deficit, debt and inflation all bolstered his popularity and allowed him to deflect from all other criticisms. This also led to social reforms: the elimination of illiteracy (by some measures, anyway), a modern constitution, recognition of indigenous peoples and the legalisation of coca. Even the end of the commodities boom hasn't been as disastrous as it was in Ecuador and Venezuela, owing to the aforementioned lack of deficits during the boom years. The ultimate legacy of MAS appears to be the creation of a truly indigenous middle-class, which isn't something to sniff at.

Not all find Morales so great. The country's lowland eastern provinces especially have been the centre of opposition to him, led by the wealthy and whiter province of Santa Cruz. The eastern lowlands have even made threats about secession, afraid of losing power to the lowlanders. The recent moves to quash terms limits in violation of his own constitution and a referendum have certainly stung. The country's strong focus on supporting extractive industries including within national parks has also caused a green backlash, especially after a disastrous fire this year that burnt vast swathes of the Chiquitano dry forest blamed on indiginous highlanders moving into the lowlanders turf and overly exploiting the land. And a recent rise in the deficit may portend future economic storms: should the President have done more to diversify the rather backward and non-industrial Bolivian economy? Even in the 2015 local elections, MAS saw some punishment, especially in middle-class urban indigenous areas that had once been the primary beneficiary of the President's pro-indigenous reforms (El Alto) - perhaps the ascetic President for the poor will become a victim of his own success?

Carlos Mesa (FRI or "Revolutionary Left Front") - One of the Presidents in the old Gas Wars, Mesa won some credit for breaking from the previous harsh treatment of protesters unleashed by his predecessor Goni upon the latter's resignation. Mild-mannered and intellectual, Mesa presents himself as a compromise figure who can unite the people who have always hated Morales with students, liberals and the new urban middle-class irritated by the term limits shenanigans without representing a drastic turn to the economic right (although Mesa pushes for increased foreign investment). He also is trying to court the green movement, opposing extractive industries in national parks. In case you are curious about Mesa's new party's name, it may not surprise you to know that the FRI, after previously being a front for a Maoist rebellion back in the day, seems (from my understanding) to have placed itself up to sale after the death of its longtime leader in 2017.

Oscar Ortiz "Bolivia Says No" - in third place is the Senator from right-wing stronghold Santa Cruz. Mr Ortitz represents a political tendency that is very much opposed to the, err, racial developments that have occurred under Morales. His candidacy has very much annoyed the Bolivian opposition, who wanted a united front, but his party wanted to cement its control over Santa Cruz province. Also very much an anti-Green, who seeks to export the "Santa Cruz model" (i.e. drill baby drill/more soy beans) to the entire country.

Chi Hyung Chung Christina Democrats - theocratic candidate who think women's rights and homosexuality are ruining Bolivia. Has seen the most success of the random candidates in polling.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: jaichind on October 20, 2019, 04:17:47 pm
If Evo does not get to 50% of the vote I assume Congress decides ?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: c r a b c a k e on October 20, 2019, 04:34:38 pm
If Evo does not get to 50% of the vote I assume Congress decides ?

nah run-off in December. He also avoids the run-off if he is over 40% and ten points clear of his rival, which is another reason why Otiz's campaign caused so much ire. (heck, his own VP candidate defected mid campaign and endorsed Mesa)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: National Progressive on October 20, 2019, 05:31:02 pm
Chi Hyung Chung Christina Democrats - theocratic candidate who think women's rights and homosexuality are ruining Bolivia. Has seen the most success of the random candidates in polling.

Chung is the child of missionary Korean Presbyterian parents and who was naturalized as a Bolivian citizen. Despite his right-wing views (he even is citing Park Chung Hee "Saemaeul" or New Villages programs as precedent for how he will develop Bolivia's economy), he was born in the famously left-leaning city of Gwangju.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Fubart Solman 🥀 on October 20, 2019, 06:41:34 pm
Chi Hyung Chung Christina Democrats - theocratic candidate who think women's rights and homosexuality are ruining Bolivia. Has seen the most success of the random candidates in polling.

Chung is the child of missionary Korean Presbyterian parents and who was naturalized as a Bolivian citizen. Despite his right-wing views (he even is citing Park Chung Hee "Saemaeul" or New Villages programs as precedent for how he will develop Bolivia's economy), he was born in the famously left-leaning city of Gwangju.

Now that’s a fascinating candidate.

Mesa doesn’t seem too bad.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: bigic on October 20, 2019, 07:13:02 pm


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Sir John Johns on October 20, 2019, 08:36:10 pm
Results with 64% counted:
Evo Morales (Movement for Socialism) 45.3%
Carlos Mesa (Civic Community) 38.2%
Chi Hyung Chung (Christian Democratic Party) 8.8%
Óscar Ortiz (Bolivia Says No) 4.4%
Félix Patzi (Third System Movement) 1.2%
Virginio Lema (Revolutionary Nationalist Movement) 0.8%
Ruth Nina (National Action Party of Bolivia) 0.7%
Víctor Hugo Cárdenas (Solidarity Civic Union) 0.5%
Ismael Rodríguez (Front for Victory) 0.3%

Morales won the departments of La Paz, Potosí, Oruro, Cochabamba and Pando while Mesa won the departments of Santa Cruz, Chuquisaca, Tarija and Beni.

(great write-up Crabcake btw).


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on October 20, 2019, 09:21:40 pm
Glad to see the obvious racist go down in flames. Mesa definitely seems like a step in the right direction for the anti-Morales camp, and there are a lot of legitimate reasons to conclude that Morales' time has gone, but ultimately I'd still rather he won this one. I don't trust the opposition not to undermine his accomplishments.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Solidarity Forever on October 21, 2019, 01:41:13 pm
With Morales’s camp claiming late votes from his rural base will put him over the 10%-gap threshold, the count has stalled at 83% (although I’ve also seen figures saying 86% or even 89%), with the percentages essentially unchanged (maybe a bit more for Ortiz and a bit less for Chi). The opposition is already crying foul and declaring victory by having forced a runoff. No word on when it’ll officially resume.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: c r a b c a k e on October 21, 2019, 04:47:52 pm
Chamber of Deputies

MAS - 64 (-24)
CC (FRI led list) - 54 (+54)
Christian Dems - 9 (-1)
MDS (Ortiz list) - 3

MAS narrowly loses majority

Senate

MAS - 19 (-6)
CC - 16 (+16)
MDS - 1
Christians - 0 (-2)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Heat on October 21, 2019, 05:55:03 pm
Chamber of Deputies

MAS - 64 (-24)
CC (FRI led list) - 54 (+54)
Christian Dems - 9 (-1)
MDS (Ortiz list) - 3

MAS narrowly loses majority

Senate

MAS - 19 (-6)
CC - 16 (+16)
MDS - 1
Christians - 0 (-2)
How much of a hindrance would this result be to each of Morales and Mesa, if they were to win the second round?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: PSOL on October 21, 2019, 07:00:39 pm
Hopefully Morales wins the Runoff. Let this be a painful lesson that MAS needs to start delivering to the Bolivian people stat, starting with running new blood.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Solidarity Forever on October 21, 2019, 09:02:53 pm
The counts I’m seeing now have Morales at 46% and Mesa at 36% (Morales having juuuuust over a 10% lead), with 95% of the vote in. Seems fishy but not outside the realm of possibility.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Solidarity Forever on October 21, 2019, 11:50:43 pm
Protests and repression all over the country. Mesa refuses to recognize Morales’s proclamation of victory in the first round.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Priest of Moloch on October 22, 2019, 09:38:43 am
Back in the good old days, you wouldn't need to pause the count for 24 hours to "find" enough ballots to put you over the top. Where is dedication? Where is passion? Where is respect for the craft?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: jaichind on October 22, 2019, 09:43:48 am
I recall back in the 2016 Referendum the the later part of the count got more Evo friendly so it is not a surprise that the Evo lead gets larger toward the end of the count.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Solidarity Forever on October 22, 2019, 01:58:27 pm
I recall back in the 2016 Referendum the the later part of the count got more Evo friendly so it is not a surprise that the Evo lead gets larger toward the end of the count.

As he said, a lot of the 17% of remaining votes were from rural areas, which are strongly pro-Evo.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Solidarity Forever on October 22, 2019, 08:33:49 pm
Results as of now are showing Morales up by 9.4% with 96% of the vote counted. The government has invited the OAS to supervise the vote, and Secretary General Luis Almagro has accepted.

https://computo.oep.org.bo/


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: kelestian on October 23, 2019, 04:20:03 am
And OF COURSE russian officials are involved in this (particularly, Rosatom). Goddamn, do they want participate in ALL world elections?

https://www.proekt.media/investigation/morales-rosatom-eng/


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: FredLindq on October 23, 2019, 05:19:03 am
Can some one tell me more about CC (FRI led list)?!
Is FRI now more centrist than it used to be and what more parties are on that list?

What happened to Samuel Dorina and UN? They did not run at all?

Does have a party have to have a presidential candidate in order to stand in the congressional elections?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Solidarity Forever on October 24, 2019, 07:29:14 pm
The OAS and EU are now asking that a second round be held; Evo’s still saying he won. I’m seeing different numbers in different places, some showing Evo winning outright and others not.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on October 25, 2019, 01:11:09 pm
So the "official" results say no runoff. Yikes. I thought Evo was the lesser evil, but if he truly had a hand in rigging the votes he has to go.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Simfan34 on November 09, 2019, 06:37:33 pm
Armed forces declares neutrality, says will "not clash with the people" after police "mutiny", protestors seize national television headquarters. (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/09/world/americas/bolivian-police-morales.html)

It's a step short of "the army stands with the people", but it's never a good sign for a regime when the army declines to reiterate its support.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: contra toda autoridad excepto mi mamá on November 09, 2019, 10:06:39 pm
Erica Chenoweth says when the police and military start to side with the protestors, regime change is imminent. Hopefully Bolivia doesn't fall apart because of this. Evo was no Chavez or Maduro, he hasn't been nearly as bad.


Title: BREAKING: Bolivia elections, Date Unknown: Round Two of the First Round
Post by: ∀lex on November 10, 2019, 06:52:51 am
The Organization of American States called today for new elections to be held after stating to have found serious irregularities in the results and clear manipulations of the voting system and it could not verify the result.

BREAKING NEWS: Evo said a few minutes ago that he will follow the OAS recommendations and there will be a new first electoral round and that all members of the Electoral Court will be replaced by new ones chosen by the Legislative Assembly

Also a couple of days ago, the electoral auditing company (Ethical Hacking) selected by the Electoral Court to supervise the electronic part vote counting said that they couldn't "vouch for the integrity of the electoral results" due to a lot of irregularities and weaknesses of the systems they had to work with


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: contra toda autoridad excepto mi mamá on November 10, 2019, 09:10:05 am
Let's see if this actually solves anything. Also, the OP should probably be changed lol


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, 20th October
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 10, 2019, 02:35:35 pm
Good on Evo for doing the right thing. Now everybody needs to calm down and deescalate the situation. Make sure the authority in charge of the election is fully independent, and let it run its course.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Simfan34 on November 10, 2019, 03:11:50 pm
Army chief calls for Morales to resign! (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-50369591?ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=news_central)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lumine on November 10, 2019, 03:51:24 pm
The President of the Chamber of Deputies and several government ministers have resigned, and the head of the national police has also called for Morales to go.

Rumors indicate Morales may have left the capital in the Presidential plane, destination unknown (likely to be one of his electoral bastions).


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lumine on November 10, 2019, 03:53:08 pm
Morales has resigned! He's at a live press conference now.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: kaoras on November 10, 2019, 04:00:31 pm
Morales has resigned! He's at a live press conference now.

If only somebody else would have the courage to resign instead of dragging his country to the mud for weeks.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: jaichind on November 10, 2019, 04:01:46 pm
If he had just accepted a second round he had a real shot at winning.  Instead he is now all washed up.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: kaoras on November 10, 2019, 04:03:20 pm
If he had just accepted a second round he had a real shot at winning.  Instead he is now all washed up.

Hilarious indeed.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ∀lex on November 10, 2019, 05:44:14 pm
Apparently no one knows who will rule the country until the new elections take place or when those elections will be held (there are rumors that it would take until the second hald of next year)

The Vice President, the President of the Senate (and Provisional President for a few hours) and the President of the House of Representatives also resigned

It's not known whether the Armed Forces will take the handle of the government or if the president of the Supreme Court will assume as president, as established by the Acephaly Law. The vice-president of the Senate (from the Democrats opposition party) claims that she should be the next provisional president

Fernando Camacho, the public face of the protests, will try to get to agree with the Armed forced to form a transitional government

The top prosecutor has ordered the arrest of all members of the Electoral Court


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 10, 2019, 06:28:53 pm
I'm glad we avoided the pro-Morales coup, but this is looking more and more like an anti-Morales coup...


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Simfan34 on November 10, 2019, 06:37:50 pm
Apparently no one knows who will rule the country until the new elections take place or when those elections will be held (there are rumors that it would take until the second hald of next year)

The Vice President  and the President of the Senate (and Provisional President) also resigned

It's not known whether the Armed Forces will take the handle of the government or if the president of the Supreme Court will assume as president, as established by the Acephaly Law. The vice-president of the Senate (from the Democrats opposition party) claims that she should be the next provisional president

The top prosecutor has ordered the arrest of all members of the Electoral Court

I highly doubt the head of the Armed Forces would formally take the mantle of power, as blatant coups have fallen out of fashion. What is more likely is that someone completely impotent (like the President of  the Supreme Court) formally takes power whilst the army runs things behind the scenes.

History will doubtlessly judge Morales favorably for not clinging to power at the expense of his country's wellbeing.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ∀lex on November 10, 2019, 07:41:21 pm
Mexico has offered Evo Morales political asylum

Jeanine Añez, the aforementioned Vice President of the Senate, has proclaimed herself as the next provisional president


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Solidarity Forever on November 10, 2019, 08:28:20 pm
I'm glad we avoided the pro-Morales coup, but this is looking more and more like an anti-Morales coup...

I mean, it’s not as if Adriana Salvatierra was forced to resign. She could be acting president right now if she wanted to.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: PSOL on November 10, 2019, 08:37:05 pm
I'm glad we avoided the pro-Morales coup, but this is looking more and more like an anti-Morales coup...

I mean, it’s not as if Adriana Salvatierra was forced to resign. She could be acting president right now if she wanted to.
Yeah, and then accidentally die from the crossfires of the police.

This is a blatant and violent power grab by the former rulers of Bolivia, sadly there exists no militias to restore democracy in Bolivia at the moment.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Solidarity Forever on November 10, 2019, 08:49:18 pm
I'm glad we avoided the pro-Morales coup, but this is looking more and more like an anti-Morales coup...

I mean, it’s not as if Adriana Salvatierra was forced to resign. She could be acting president right now if she wanted to.
Yeah, and then accidentally die from the crossfires of the police.

This is a blatant and violent power grab by the former rulers of Bolivia, sadly there exists no militias to restore democracy in Bolivia at the moment.

Shame how Evo’s ego was too big to let literally anyone else in his party be President after 21F. It’s entirely his fault that his accomplishments are in danger now.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Edu on November 10, 2019, 09:21:30 pm
I'm glad we avoided the pro-Morales coup, but this is looking more and more like an anti-Morales coup...

I mean, it’s not as if Adriana Salvatierra was forced to resign. She could be acting president right now if she wanted to.
Yeah, and then accidentally die from the crossfires of the police.

This is a blatant and violent power grab by the former rulers of Bolivia, sadly there exists no militias to restore democracy in Bolivia at the moment.


LOL


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: LabourJersey on November 10, 2019, 10:22:22 pm
Seems to be a common point on leftist twitter that the US is backing the anti-Evo factions to force him out of power. Is there any truth to this? As of now I'm treating it with more than a little skepticism until proven


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lord Halifax on November 10, 2019, 10:33:24 pm
Why didn't Morales appoint officers loyal to him to the top jobs in the military and police? Are there no leftists in the security services?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: National Progressive on November 10, 2019, 10:35:57 pm
I'm glad we avoided the pro-Morales coup, but this is looking more and more like an anti-Morales coup...

I mean, it’s not as if Adriana Salvatierra was forced to resign. She could be acting president right now if she wanted to.
Yeah, and then accidentally die from the crossfires of the police.

This is a blatant and violent power grab by the former rulers of Bolivia, sadly there exists no militias to restore democracy in Bolivia at the moment.

Shame how Evo’s ego was too big to let literally anyone else in his party be President after 21F. It’s entirely his fault that his accomplishments are in danger now.

I agree, but he may have been afraid of a betrayal by his successor as was the case in Ecuador where Moreno not only took a u-turn in policy but also investigated his predecessor for corruption.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Solidarity Forever on November 10, 2019, 10:48:44 pm
Why didn't Morales appoint officers loyal to him to the top jobs in the military and police? Are there no leftists in the security services?

According to El País, he did. Williams Kaliman is close to him. https://elpais.com/internacional/2019/11/10/actualidad/1573426533_008486.html


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lumine on November 10, 2019, 10:54:13 pm
Why didn't Morales appoint officers loyal to him to the top jobs in the military and police? Are there no leftists in the security services?

Oddly enough, General Kaliman - head of the Armed Forces - was seen as a staunch Morales loyalist, which is why his decisions not to intervene at first (against the police revolt) and later to force Morales's resignation was stunning.

I read an article which suggested that although Morales had loyalists leading both institutions he had A. offended the army through measures such as political indoctrination, B. offended most of the police by not taking their side over an internal dispute with their leadership, and C. didn't count on the military not wanting to be responsible of a bloodbath if they were used to crush the protests (when the military did attempt this in a separate instance a few years ago - before Evo -, the military leadership was tried and sent to jail in the aftermath).

That sounded somewhat reasonable, though the explanation may be found elsewhere.

Note: The article I mentioned is the one that was cited before my post.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Cinemark on November 10, 2019, 10:58:54 pm
Seems to be a common point on leftist twitter that the US is backing the anti-Evo factions to force him out of power. Is there any truth to this? As of now I'm treating it with more than a little skepticism until proven

They're going off of past history. But so far, there is nothing to pinpoint US involvement in any of this.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 10, 2019, 11:40:53 pm
Seems to be a common point on leftist twitter that the US is backing the anti-Evo factions to force him out of power. Is there any truth to this? As of now I'm treating it with more than a little skepticism until proven

They're going off of past history. But so far, there is nothing to pinpoint US involvement in any of this.

If anything, there seems to be a popular contagion effect going on in Latin America right now: Brazil, Chile, now Bolivia.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Solidarity Forever on November 11, 2019, 12:09:33 am
Seems to be a common point on leftist twitter that the US is backing the anti-Evo factions to force him out of power. Is there any truth to this? As of now I'm treating it with more than a little skepticism until proven

They're going off of past history. But so far, there is nothing to pinpoint US involvement in any of this.

If anything, there seems to be a popular contagion effect going on in Latin America right now: Brazil, Chile, now Bolivia.

Ecuador, Haiti, Peru.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ∀lex on November 11, 2019, 07:06:48 am
Why didn't Morales appoint officers loyal to him to the top jobs in the military and police? Are there no leftists in the security services?

Oddly enough, General Kaliman - head of the Armed Forces - was seen as a staunch Morales loyalist, which is why his decisions not to intervene at first (against the police revolt) and later to force Morales's resignation was stunning.

I read an article which suggested that although Morales had loyalists leading both institutions he had A. offended the army through measures such as political indoctrination, B. offended most of the police by not taking their side over an internal dispute with their leadership, and C. didn't count on the military not wanting to be responsible of a bloodbath if they were used to crush the protests (when the military did attempt this in a separate instance a few years ago - before Evo -, the military leadership was tried and sent to jail in the aftermath).

That sounded somewhat reasonable, though the explanation may be found elsewhere.

Note: The article I mentioned is the one that was cited before my post.

Evo also lost the support from a few other vital sectors in the last few days, e.g. yesterday the Central Over Boliviana, the main trade union confederation and a vital ally of Morales, asked for Evo to resign and for the members of the Electoral Court to be removed and put in trial a few hours before the statements saying basically the same things


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 11, 2019, 08:36:01 am
A coup by any other name is still a coup.

Morales will be judged well by history, despite his failings in more recent years.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Umengus on November 11, 2019, 08:43:11 am
A coup by any other name is still a coup.

Morales will be judged well by history, despite his failings in more recent years.

the coup was made by Morales and his refusal to respect the constitution (and the referendum)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: StateBoiler on November 11, 2019, 04:30:45 pm
Argie from another board I'm on describing this:

Quote
Bolivian Constitution precluded him to run for a 4th consecutive mandate.

Tried to reform the Constitution, didn't get enough votes.

Tried to have a referendum in order to get "popular support" to run for office again anyway: lost it.

Then claimed the results were "inconclusive enough" and decided to run for office again anyway.

At election day, all indications were that he wouldn't have enough votes to win in the first round. Then the vote counting got "suspended" for 24 hours. At the end of that period the had just gotten enough votes to avoid the 2nd round, by less than half a percentage point.

The protesters started to take the streets.

OEA's (American States' Organization) international overseeing commission emmited a report calling the election process "riddled by corruption, vote rigging and inconsistencies".

Protest increased. Paramilitary groups backing Morales started attacking the protests - while the Police just vanished -, ending with several injured and killed.

Several of his Ministers resigned, the Parliament tried to vote him off but the majority blocked the vote, and consecuently the President of the Senate resigned.

Up to this point, nothing seemed to be wrong for most of our Latin American "leaders".   

Finally, COB (the Union's Central Organization), the Head of the Police and the Head of the Army, all called for him to resign, while Morales was blabbering about a CIA plot. Morales finally resigned, while claiming there are assasins looking for him. And all of the sudden, to all the leftist parties in South America, it's a "coup d'État". 

Today, in Argentina, there's a standard 10.000 strong march in support of Morales, claiming president Macri "organized" the coup against Morales, and therefore he has to leave office NOW!!!! (instead of on December 10th, when his mandate ends).


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: You're Still Going to Vote for Biden on November 11, 2019, 06:34:24 pm
Pretty much out of the cards now, but Morales even win a new election?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 11, 2019, 07:09:00 pm
Pretty much out of the cards now, but Morales even win a new election?

Of course not. They made it clear that they aren't going to allow an indigenous President ever again.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ∀lex on November 11, 2019, 09:10:52 pm
Morales will soon be traveling to Mexico, the country that offered him political asylum, in a Mexican military plane

He said in Twitter that he'll soon be back to Bolivia and he'll be stronger than ever, but in cases like this who knows what will happen


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Solidarity Forever on November 12, 2019, 11:06:28 am
Pretty much out of the cards now, but Morales even win a new election?

Of course not. They made it clear that they aren't going to allow an indigenous President ever again.

“They” weren’t able to stop him the first three times, so clearly “they” can’t be too influential. The only thing that’s changed here is the referendum and everything that came after that.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Solidarity Forever on November 12, 2019, 11:24:41 pm
Áñez officially confirmed as acting president (by the constitutional court), new elections must be within 90 days.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat on November 12, 2019, 11:28:17 pm
Áñez officially confirmed as acting president (by the constitutional court), new elections must be within 90 days.

Is the constitutional court a relatively impartial institution in Bolivia or is it a de facto third chamber of Congress like the SCOTUS?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Solidarity Forever on November 13, 2019, 11:20:40 am
Áñez officially confirmed as acting president (by the constitutional court), new elections must be within 90 days.

Is the constitutional court a relatively impartial institution in Bolivia or is it a de facto third chamber of Congress like the SCOTUS?

This is the same court that allowed Evo to run in the first place by overturning the 21F referendum, which brought (naturally) many accusations of politicization from the opposition. This feels to me like something of a John Roberts type situation, trying to avoid the appearance of just being another branch of masismo, but I think someone else could answer that better than I could.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: rob in cal on November 16, 2019, 01:12:46 pm
  Wonder how Putin feels about this, as he has been fairly pro-Morales I believe.  I saw an article recently about alleged Russian pro-Morales election interference fwtw.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: bigic on November 16, 2019, 02:55:51 pm
  Wonder how Putin feels about this, as he has been fairly pro-Morales I believe.  I saw an article recently about alleged Russian pro-Morales election interference fwtw.
AFAIK they now recognize the new temporary government, but some Latin American countries still don't.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Intell on November 17, 2019, 07:27:40 am
A coup by any other name is still a coup.

Morales will be judged well by history, despite his failings in more recent years.

the coup was made by Morales and his refusal to respect the constitution (and the referendum)

People could have shown that they disliked that by not voting for him in the Bolivian election.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: bigic on November 17, 2019, 08:26:42 am
A coup by any other name is still a coup.

Morales will be judged well by history, despite his failings in more recent years.

the coup was made by Morales and his refusal to respect the constitution (and the referendum)

People could have shown that they disliked that by not voting for him in the Bolivian election.
Which they did! And the early counts and numbers from independent election observers have shown that Morales would face an opponent in the second round. The later count was rigged (after no results being counted for 24 hours, which is suspicious) so that the difference between Morales and his main opponent exceeds 10% - which is according to the Bolivian electoral law enough for avoiding the second round.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Walmart_shopper on November 17, 2019, 12:58:33 pm
A coup by any other name is still a coup.

Morales will be judged well by history, despite his failings in more recent years.

the coup was made by Morales and his refusal to respect the constitution (and the referendum)

People could have shown that they disliked that by not voting for him in the Bolivian election.

If right wingers supported coups when leaders contravene their country's constitutional norms there would hardly be any right wing governments.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Intell on November 17, 2019, 11:21:54 pm
A coup by any other name is still a coup.

Morales will be judged well by history, despite his failings in more recent years.

the coup was made by Morales and his refusal to respect the constitution (and the referendum)

People could have shown that they disliked that by not voting for him in the Bolivian election.
Which they did! And the early counts and numbers from independent election observers have shown that Morales would face an opponent in the second round. The later count was rigged (after no results being counted for 24 hours, which is suspicious) so that the difference between Morales and his main opponent exceeds 10% - which is according to the Bolivian electoral law enough for avoiding the second round.

Later votes were from rural areas that overwhelmingly favour morales anyway.

Also morales offered to have another election, but the coup happened nonetheless to benefit the interests of Bolivia.

This is by far less worse than what happened in 2000 that got Bush elected in which he refused a recount.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ∀lex on November 23, 2019, 10:44:29 pm
The Senate and the House have both unanimously passed a law calling for new elections under an exceptional one-time-only rules, neither Evo not his VP Álvaro García Linera will be allowed to run. No official date has been set AFAIK, but the new elections will take place somewhere in the next 120 days (and it has to be in 2020)

The results of the October elections are now officially void

Camacho said he may run for president


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 23, 2019, 10:47:05 pm
The Senate and the House have both unanimously passed a law calling for new elections under an exceptional one-time-only rules, neither Evo not his VP Álvaro García Linera will be allowed to run. No official date has been set AFAIK, but the new elections will take place somewhere in the next 120 days (and it has to be in 2020)

The results of the October elections are now officially void

Camacho said he may run for president

Calling it now, these elections are going to be rigged in favor of the right. And the OAS will have nothing to say about it.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Helsinkian on November 24, 2019, 07:11:06 am
The Senate and the House have both unanimously passed a law calling for new elections under an exceptional one-time-only rules, neither Evo not his VP Álvaro García Linera will be allowed to run.

So Morales's party threw him under the bus?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ∀lex on November 24, 2019, 07:39:47 am
The Senate and the House have both unanimously passed a law calling for new elections under an exceptional one-time-only rules, neither Evo not his VP Álvaro García Linera will be allowed to run.

So Morales's party threw him under the bus?

Evo himself said that he wouldn't run for president this time many days before anyone else in the party said anything about his candidacy


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ∀lex on November 24, 2019, 03:11:01 pm
The Senate and the House have both unanimously passed a law calling for new elections under an exceptional one-time-only rules, neither Evo not his VP Álvaro García Linera will be allowed to run. No official date has been set AFAIK, but the new elections will take place somewhere in the next 120 days (and it has to be in 2020)

The results of the October elections are now officially void

Mini update, Jeanine Añez has signed this bill, new elections will take place sometime between January [not very likely due to summer holidays] and May 2020. If there's a second round it will be less than 45 days after the first round

No official date has yet been established


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ∀lex on December 03, 2019, 04:42:41 pm
The provisional government wants the first round of the elections to take place in March

Confirmed candidates:

Carlos Mesa - Gustavo Pedraza (same ticket as in the October elections)

Chi Hyung Chung, now without the support of the parties which were backing him that are now supporting newcomer Camacho

Luis Fernando Camacho, probably with Potosí (a southwestern and generally more pro-Evo department) protest leader Marco Pumari as VP candidate

Probable MAS candidates:

Andrónico Rodríguez, coca-leaf trade unionist

Adriana Salvatierra, provisional president for a couple of hours and former senator (she resigned to avoid being president during the hardest moment of the resignation/coup protests)

David Choquehuanca (trade unionist, Minister for International Relations 2006-2007, since then General Secretary of the ALBA [the Venezuela-led anti NAFTA/FTAA project])-Luis Arce (Economy Minister 2006-2017)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on December 03, 2019, 08:03:45 pm
(she resigned to avoid being president during the hardest moment of the resignation/coup protests)

What a polite way to put it.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: When we run out of hydrogen we become supernovas on December 03, 2019, 08:30:38 pm
I'm kind of a bit torn on who I'd support, I actually was kind of rooting for Mesa last time just because Morales was in office for too long and had turned authoritarian though he did accomplish a lot of good early in his tenure. However since it won't be Morales on the ballot and the circumstances since then...it's kind of hard to root against MAS. I don't think Mesa is a terrible guy even though he's not a great fit ideologically for me (and honestly if he wins he'd probably still be the best South American President even if merely by default), but under these circumstances he could be indebted to terrible people.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ∀lex on December 03, 2019, 09:15:45 pm
I'm kind of a bit torn on who I'd support, I actually was kind of rooting for Mesa last time just because Morales was in office for too long and had turned authoritarian though he did accomplish a lot of good early in his tenure. However since it won't be Morales on the ballot and the circumstances since then...it's kind of hard to root against MAS. I don't think Mesa is a terrible guy even though he's not a great fit ideologically for me (and honestly if he wins he'd probably still be the best South American President even if merely by default), but under these circumstances he could be indebted to terrible people.

I pretty much agree with this (even though my opinion of Mesa wasn't as positive as yours)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lumine on December 03, 2019, 09:28:28 pm
Not a very impressive line-up, that's for sure. MAS or Camacho winning would probably just start new problems of its own or make current ones worse (and/or validate their respective morally questionable actions and/or statements), and the less said about Chi Hyung Chung the better (gods, I wish Evangelical pastors never ran for President in Latin America).

So yeah, Mesa seems like the least depressing option. Which is depressing on its own, I might say.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lord Halifax on December 04, 2019, 07:25:10 am

Probable MAS candidates:

Andrónico Rodríguez, coca-leaf trade unionist

Adriana Salvatierra, provisional president for a couple of hours and former senator (she resigned to avoid being president during the hardest moment of the resignation/coup protests)

David Choquehuanca (trade unionist, Minister for International Relations 2006-2007, since then General Secretary of the ALBA [the Venezuela-led anti NAFTA/FTAA project])-Luis Arce (Economy Minister 2006-2017)

Has Arce agreed to be Choquehuanca's running mate? Or is he a fourth potential candidate.

David Choquehuanca is 58, Arce is 56 and Salvatierra & Rodríguez are both "kids" around 30. Do you think MAS will prefer a young candidate or someone from Morales' generation?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ∀lex on December 04, 2019, 04:19:41 pm

Probable MAS candidates:

Andrónico Rodríguez, coca-leaf trade unionist

Adriana Salvatierra, provisional president for a couple of hours and former senator (she resigned to avoid being president during the hardest moment of the resignation/coup protests)

David Choquehuanca (trade unionist, Minister for International Relations 2006-2007, since then General Secretary of the ALBA [the Venezuela-led anti NAFTA/FTAA project])-Luis Arce (Economy Minister 2006-2017)

Has Arce agreed to be Choquehuanca's running mate? Or is he a fourth potential candidate.

David Choquehuanca is 58, Arce is 56 and Salvatierra & Rodríguez are both "kids" around 30. Do you think MAS will prefer a young candidate or someone from Morales' generation?

The article I got it from said that Arce may be Choquehuanca's VP candidate, but a lot of other articles say they'd run separate


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ∀lex on December 05, 2019, 06:41:05 am
Yesterday the OAS released their final 96-pages-long report on the audits of the October elections

Their "conclusion is that there was "intentional manipulation" and "serious irregularities" that make it impossible to validate the results originally issued by the Bolivian electoral authorities."

"The report confirms that the intentional manipulation of the elections took place in two areas. First, the audit detected changes in the minutes and the falsification of the signatures of poll officials. Second, it was found that in the processing of the results the data flow was redirected to two hidden servers and not controlled by personnel of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), which made it possible to manipulate data and falsify minutes. "These servers, and the direct results from the votes "counted" in these, were also hidden from the auditing company

"To this are added serious irregularities, such as the lack of protection of the acts and the loss of sensitive material. The report also details a significant number of errors and indices."

"The audit findings also reveal the partiality of the electoral authority. The members of the TSE, who were tasked with ensuring the legality and integrity of the process, allowed the flow of information to be diverted to external servers, destroying all confidence in the electoral process."

The conclusion of the report is that “the manipulations and irregularities indicated do not allow for certainty about the margin of victory of the candidate Evo Morales over the candidate Carlos Mesa. On the contrary, based on the overwhelming evidence found, what can be affirmed is that there has been a series of intentional operations aimed at altering the will expressed at the polls.”

OAS Press Release: https://www.oas.org/en/media_center/press_release.asp?sCodigo=E-109/19

Complete Report (in Spanish): http://www.oas.org/es/sap/deco/Informe-Bolivia-2019/


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ∀lex on December 08, 2019, 04:51:42 pm
Mini update:

Camacho confirmed that Pumari won't be his VP candidate , and the latter may run on his own for the presidency


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lumine on December 08, 2019, 04:54:19 pm
Pumari won't be Camacho's VP (allegedly due to some policy differences and because Pumari wanted to lead the ticket), so it appears likely that both of them will run for President instead. Camacho has picked up the endorsement of several minor parties, MAS is yet to pick a candidate, but they've chosen Morales to be their "campaign chief".

Also, the first poll came up, though the results don't seem very reliable:

Camacho: 16%
Pumari: 16%
Rodriguez (MAS): 16%
Mesa: 14%
Chi Hyung Chung: 10%


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Solidarity Forever on January 01, 2020, 01:07:57 pm
Lmao Camacho and Pumari are back together again. Latest poll had Rodríguez at 23%, Mesa at 21%, Camacho at 13%, and Pumari at 10%; MAS percentage dropped significantly when substituting David Choquehuanca, the apparent other most popular potential MAS candidate, for Rodriguez (down to about 10%) but that’s probably more due to name recognition than anything else.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ∀lex on January 01, 2020, 07:15:58 pm
MAS will announce their presidential candidate on on January 19



Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ∀lex on January 03, 2020, 08:48:16 pm
The Electoral Court has finally set the date for the new elections, May 3


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: PSOL on January 13, 2020, 02:31:52 pm
Well things seem to be heating up (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-media/britain-secretly-funded-reuters-in-1960s-and-1970s-documents-idUSKBN1ZC20H)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ∀lex on January 15, 2020, 06:24:25 pm
Well things seem to be heating up (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-media/britain-secretly-funded-reuters-in-1960s-and-1970s-documents-idUSKBN1ZC20H)

How is this related to anything happening in Bolivia?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lumine on January 15, 2020, 07:00:27 pm
The split of the opposition vote continues with the entry of former President Jorge Quiroga (2001-2002, Hugo Banzer's VP, lost the election to Evo) and Felix Patzi (was Morales's Education Minister in 2006-2007, went from MAS to the opposition), despite the current government's efforts to forge a united front against MAS.

Morales has made the news from Argentina with the leaking of a tape, in which Morales discusses the need to form "popular armed militias" (quoting Venezuela and Maduro as a direct example). Unsurprisingly, this has sparked quite a bit of controversy.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ∀lex on January 17, 2020, 05:27:38 pm
MAS officially endorsed a David Choquehuanca - Andrónico Rodríguez presidential ticket

Party leaders and allies will meet with Morales, here in Buenos Aires, in a couple of days to make the official announcement


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: RodPresident on January 17, 2020, 05:55:43 pm
The split of the opposition vote continues with the entry of former President Jorge Quiroga (2001-2002, Hugo Banzer's VP, lost the election to Evo) and Felix Patzi (was Morales's Education Minister in 2006-2007, went from MAS to the opposition), despite the current government's efforts to forge a united front against MAS.

Morales has made the news from Argentina with the leaking of a tape, in which Morales discusses the need to form "popular armed militias" (quoting Venezuela and Maduro as a direct example). Unsurprisingly, this has sparked quite a bit of controversy.
Opposition's pulverization can help Mesa's speech to be lesser evil as more electable candidate against MAS guy in runoff?


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: ∀lex on January 19, 2020, 06:55:33 pm
There were some last minute changes as Choquehuanca has now been demoted to VP candidate, and Luis Arce Will be the presidential candidate in the Evo-approved and now totally official MAS ballot

Morales said that Andrónico Rodriguez (30) is too young (read: inexperienced) to be president and that he is surprised that Andrónico was leading the polls. Rodriguez also didn't assists to the meeting with Evo in Buenos Aires, citing security reasons, which may have influenced the final decision


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: PSOL on January 19, 2020, 09:37:39 pm
There were some last minute changes as Choquehuanca has now been demoted to VP candidate, and Luis Arce Will be the presidential candidate in the Evo-approved and now totally official MAS ballot

Morales said that Andrónico Rodriguez (30) is too young (read: inexperienced) to be president and that he is surprised that Andrónico was leading the polls. Rodriguez also didn't assists to the meeting with Evo in Buenos Aires, citing security reasons, which may have influenced the final decision
If MAS loses because of the further damage from this spat, it’s going to be on Evo for losing the country to ruin.


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: Lumine on January 24, 2020, 10:47:24 pm
And, in (yet) another plot twist, President Añez announces she's running for a full term. The additional split of the opposition vote aside - are they actively trying to lose? - Añez appears to have started with her bid with several relevant former Mesa supporters behind her, so it appears Mesa will be the biggest loser from this.

Current field:
(Used the colors Bolivian parties currently use)

Luis Arce / David Choquehuanca (MAS)
Jeanine Añez / TBD (MDS)
Carlos Mesa / Gustavo Pedraza (CC)
Luis Fernando Camacho / Marcos Pumarí (Backed by PDC, ADN, UCS)
Chi Hyun Chung / TBD (Independent, former PDC)
Jorge Quiroga / TBD (MNR)
Félix Patzi / TBD (MTS)


Title: Re: Bolivia elections, Morales agrees a fressh run; date TBC
Post by: FredLindq on January 25, 2020, 04:57:10 am
Was not Camacho the candidate for MNR until now? And why is former ADN member Quoirga candidate for MNR now?