Talk Elections

Results are in, in article form
Undecided at 29%
Biden at 18%
Warren at 17%
Buttigieg at 13%
Sanders at 9%
Steyer, Klobuchar, Harris, Gabbard at 3%
Yang, Booker, O’Rourke at1%
Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Messam, Ryan, Sestak, Williamson at 0%

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/10/21/iowa-caucuses-pete-buttigieg-elizabeth-warren-joe-biden-top-poll/4025797002/

Ah, so when Buttigieg goes after his opponents people like him more, but when Harris went after Biden, she was "mean" (or Castro for that matter). Funny how that works, huh?

Whoever talks about misogyny in American politics is an establishment neoliberal shill.

It must be sexism, that's why Warren is in a tie for first

Not really talking about gender.

I know Suffolk is known for undecideds, but 30% is kinda ridiculous.

Can Buttigieg’s campaign just die already. The media hard-on for this guy is insufferable. He does the exact same things Beto was ravaged for when he announced (speaks in platitudes, no experience, no plans). But it’s okay because he speaks Swedish.

Then he goes out and attacks the other candidates with bs talking points (“We were this close to banning assault weapons until you said we should have a mandatory buyback”) and he’s praised for having passion, but when Castro and Harris do it their just mean and nasty. I’ll be happy when Bernie and Warren tag-team this guy out of the running next debate.

Thats a debate qualifying poll for Gabbard, Klobuchar and Steyer.

Klobuchar needs two more, Gabbard needs three.

Not sure how many Steyer needs.

This is an early state poll - qualifying, yes, but they have to hit 5%. 3% is for national polls.

Oh...

Hmmm. Sucks for all the bottom tier candidates then. Harris included apparently.

Thank goodness for that. Maybe we can finally winnow the field below 10 candidates.

This is incorrect. The paths are either 4 national or early state over 3% or 2 early state over 5. Earlier poster is correct that this is #2 out of 4 for Klobuchat and 1 out of 4 for Harris.

Steyer's already qualified.

Nina Turner, Krystal Ball, and Shuan King told me that Bernie was back! I didn't know that back meant being in fourth place with single digits in Iowa.

I'm old enough to remember when Harris was suddenly a top tier contender after the media foamed at the mouth over a debate performance too.

Yes, it must be racism. From a party who nominated a black guy 8 years ago and whos members members include almost every politically active African American in the country.

Could it be that maybe Kamala is just a crap candidate?

I dont know why AOC endorsed Sanders, but Sanders is done, Warren is gonna win the nomination. Hopefully, Biden places 3rd in IA

Full results here:

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2019/10_21_2019_marignals_pdftxt.pdf

Biden 18%
Warren 17%
Buttigieg 13%
Sanders 9%
Steyer 3%
Gabbard 3%
Harris 3%
Klobuchar 3%
Yang 1%
Booker 1%
O’Rourke 1%
Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Messam, Ryan, Sestak, Williamson 0%

Beautiful! Thank you Hillary!

I think the reason why Buttigieg probably improved upon his numbers post-debate while Harris and Castro dropped was that he didn't go after Warren. Sure, Warren is very well-liked among Democratic voters and is more popular now than Biden himself in favorability but many more voters might just have a stronger affection for Biden because they knew him for so long. Buttigieg smartly avoided this because his numbers could've dropped as well.

Also, I'm not sure if we can draw too many conclusions from this poll due to high amount of undecideds and Buttigieg was already polling around the lower double-digit range from other pollsters.

Here's the change from last poll:

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1186258970480132097

Buttigieg "surged" from the last poll, but the poll was taken in late June/Early July.

I pity those who find elections this predictable. Reminder: Biden is now +6 in RCP national average.

She might be even higher now, cause I believe this poll was conducted entirely before the controversy broke out. ;)

Beto is an empty suit running around like a chicken with its head cut off whereas not only does Buttigieg seem to be the real deal, but he’s also clearly the smartest person in the race with the possible exception of Warren (although Buttigieg seems to be the more honest of the two where policy is concerned).

And I’m as pro-gun control as it gets, but mandatory buybacks might be the dumbest ideas I’ve heard on this issue from the Democratic side.  When you say stupid things in a Presidential debate, sometimes you get called out for it.  Beto learned that the hard way.  The one time Harris made a coherent attack against Biden, she got her 15 minutes of fame as flavor of the month...only to blow it in spectacular fashion.  Castro is a C-list candidate at best who got criticized for how he went about his attack on Biden.

How does junk like this count as qualifying but Economist/YouGov and Emerson don't?

I do find it disappointing that Pete seems to have taken Amy K's lane. She is just way more qualified and more prepared to be Pres than a Mayor of a small town. Pete lost statewide race by 25% while Amy routinely wins in landslides I hope in the end voters realize who is the better candidate.

Congratulations, President Undecided!

I want Warren and Pete to be the "last people standing" after Super Tuesday, so that voters who are voting later have the chance between one young, charismatic moderate and a convincing leftist.

Pete is everything that Biden is, just younger and less used.

They have, it’s Buttigieg :P

My opinion: YouGov is online only which is still untested in the United States while Emerson has been awful in the past and still uses way too many IVR landline calls in their polls(usually 60% to 70%).

I could see Gabbard getting high single digits in Iowa maybe even 10%.