Talk Elections

Warren 28%
Buttigieg 20%
Sanders 18%
Biden 12%
Klobuchar 4%
Harris 3%
Steyer 3%
Gabbard 2%
Yang 2%
Booker 1%
O'Rourke 1%
Bennet 1%

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_ISU_banner_book_2019_10.pdf

Polls are all over the place, huh?

Biden in 4th in Iowa in one poll? He should drop out.

2nd Choices:
24% Warren
14% Buttigieg
13% Sanders
10% Biden
7% Klobuchar
6% Harris
5% Gabbard
4% Yang
4% Steyer
Everyone else below that.

Break out the Drudge Siren on this one.

Buttigieg could very well be the John Edwards 2008 of this race.

It's true, all the Bernie Bros on Twitter posted that one Emerson poll where Bernie beat Trump by 2% in Iowa, so now the Democrats must nominate Bernie in order to win #BattlegroundIowa

Wtf??? Biden up 10% nationally and at 12% in IA? Both figures are absurd.

Honestly, I'm starting to give up on polls. Maybe we ignore all the polls and just see what happens once voting begins.

Arguably, anyone could be Edwards at this point. Edwards was still a distant 4th/5th in Iowa in October of 2003.

2nd choice of Warren voters:
Sanders 25%
Buttigieg 20%
Harris 16%

2nd choice of Buttigieg voters:
Warren 37%
Biden 16%
Klobuchar 13%

2nd choice of Sanders voterrs:
Warren 40%
Gabbard 20%
Sanders 14% (?)

2nd choice of Biden voters:
Warren 34%
Buttigieg 24%
Steyer 9%

Somehow they allow voters to pick the same name for 1st and 2nd choice, such that, for example, 14% of Sanders voters say that he’s both their 1st and 2nd choice.

Fair, but meant this in the sense of a relentless focus on Iowa producing a great result, but the campaign not being ready for any of the immediately following contests.

They're just that devoted to voting for him.

Sloth Biden, is losing

New Poll: Iowa President by Iowa State University on 2019-10-22 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1920191022168)

Summary:

Warren:	28%
Buttigieg:	20%
Sanders:	18%
Biden:	12%
Other:	18%
Undecided:	4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_ISU_banner_book_2019_10.pdf)

Not so surprising considering their cult-like mentality.

Bad poll for Biden, surprising strong polls for Buttigieg and Warren. Sanders where i would predict him to be, but if this trend continues, he will end fourth, and will have to drop out before NH.

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1187381465673281541

Warren currently leads in every CD

Buttigieg now ahead of Sanders for the first time in the RCP Iowa average.

Awesome.

Warren and Pete should be the last 2 standing after Super Tuesday.

Pete has zero support from blacks and hispanics, so not likely.

He will, once Biden drops out and endorses him ...

Even if Buttigieg finishes a strong second in IA, he's not winning any of the other early states, which will be a big drag on him heading into Super Tuesday, which itself only has a few clear targets for him.

Lmao, complete trash

This poll is consistent with the QU polls that has been conducted, sloth Joe isnt the frontrunner, anymore

It is becoming pretty clear that the pollsters are having a lot of trouble modeling what the Democratic primary electorate is going to look like.

There is no front runner because none of the front runner candidates are good and democrats can't decide.

Yep.

Sample size of 598 likely voters, conducted October 18th to 22nd. Change is from their previous poll (https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_ISU_banner_book_2019_09_release.pdf) conducted one month ago.

Warren — 28% (+4%)
Buttigieg — 20% (+7%)
Sanders — 18% (+2%)
Biden — 12% (-4%)
Klobuchar — 4% (+1%)
Harris — 3% (-2%)
Steyer — 3% (+1%)
Gabbard — 2% (-2%)
Yang — 2% (-1%)
Booker — 1% (-1%)
O'Rourke — 1% (-1%)
Bennet — 1% (+1%)
Delaney — 0% (±0)
Castro — 0% (±0)
Williamson — 0% (-1%)
Bullock — 0% (±0)
Ryan — 0% (-1%)

Interesting that Warren is performing equally well with both white and non-white voters.  She leading among both groups in both 1st and 2nd choice.  (The poll is only 9% non-white, so I’m sure the MoE is huge.)

She’s also leading among both genders, all education groups, and all age groups except 18-34 (where she is 2nd to Sanders).

Anyone remember all the "Biden is inevitable" takes?

Biden is well positioned to be nominee, IA is a tossup and if Biden wins IA, he will win SC

Buttigieg, at the rate he's surging at, could win Iowa. Big if true.

'
If Biden wins Iowa, I'll literally eat my sock after a ten hour hike.  Biden "was" well positioned to be the nominee, but won't due to NickG's analysis of the polling data.   


This was evident back in August.  Everyone over 34 should be going to Biden.  Minorities should be going to Harris.  High School educated voters should be going to Biden.  This illustrates to me that a Warren that wins Iowa, will likely win the next three states.  Maybe Sanders wins NH.  Maybe. 

I'm almost ready to lock this indigenous people's pretender as the Democrat nominee.

Pete's ground game must be incredible in Iowa. He has been so far ahead of his national average in every poll I have seen.

-rubs eyes- What???

🙄

Rub eyes, What????😕😩😞😖

Biden is a sloth and is sleepy Joe

Calling him a sloth is an extreme insult to all the sloths of the world for sure. Joe Biden doesn't even go to the toilet every second week.