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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: JerryArkansas on October 29, 2019, 06:20:01 am



Title: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: JerryArkansas on October 29, 2019, 06:20:01 am
[Labour just confirmed they're voting for it, so it is on.  I'll change the date once it's worked out today.  Could be either the 9th or 12th.

Here is a link to the BBC article. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-50221856

Edit, since it looks like its set save drama in the lords.


Title: Re: Great Britain Parliamentary Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Thomas D on October 29, 2019, 06:34:06 am
Hmmmmmmm..a hastily called election where early polls indicate the Conservatives will win in a landslide and have a shot at getting over 400 seats.  Never seen this play before.


Title: Re: Great Britain Parliamentary Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: DaWN on October 29, 2019, 06:42:31 am
It's actually a United Kingdom General Election, as Northern Ireland will also participate and we don't call them parliamentary elections. Otherwise spot on.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Cassius on October 29, 2019, 06:56:27 am
So.

Tories will start off with the 10 point lead or so. Johnson will start bumbling his way around the country. He’ll find himself on the walkabout in Peterborough/Canterbury/Lincoln/Somesuch Place. A large concerned citizen will then waddle up to him and ask whether he’s ever had to clean up his own mother’s piss. He’ll mumble and stumble on camera which will be all over the news/social media. Labour will then pull even as the Tory vote erodes and Labour consolidates some of the anti-Tory vote.

Result: Labour minority


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Zinneke on October 29, 2019, 07:04:30 am
How likely Tories get rinsed in Cornwall, Norfolk, London, and Scotland? Enough to lose any chance of a majority despite 10 point lead?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Hnv1 on October 29, 2019, 07:19:27 am
How likely Tories get rinsed in Cornwall, Norfolk, London, and Scotland? Enough to lose any chance of a majority despite 10 point lead?
unlikely, remote, possible, possible


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: MillennialModerate on October 29, 2019, 07:36:26 am
So.

Tories will start off with the 10 point lead or so. Johnson will start bumbling his way around the country. He’ll find himself on the walkabout in Peterborough/Canterbury/Lincoln/Somesuch Place. A large concerned citizen will then waddle up to him and ask whether he’s ever had to clean up his own mother’s piss. He’ll mumble and stumble on camera which will be all over the news/social media. Labour will then pull even as the Tory vote erodes and Labour consolidates some of the anti-Tory vote.

Result: Labour minority


I wish gambling was legal or possible through this site.

You are out of your mind if you think Labour is winning a minority government.

A hung parliament is the absolute best anyone can hope for.

I’m an American so I don’t have a dog in the fight but if I was a Brit, I’d be a moderate Labour voter (think Blair) but one who supports leave. I think Corbyn is horrific. But then again I think the Tories Brexit deal is awful as well, so it’s a lose lose all around.

I think you’re looking at a result approximately:

Conservative 340
Labour 200
Liberal Democrat 50
Brexit 5
Independent 16


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Cassius on October 29, 2019, 08:04:38 am
So.

Tories will start off with the 10 point lead or so. Johnson will start bumbling his way around the country. He’ll find himself on the walkabout in Peterborough/Canterbury/Lincoln/Somesuch Place. A large concerned citizen will then waddle up to him and ask whether he’s ever had to clean up his own mother’s piss. He’ll mumble and stumble on camera which will be all over the news/social media. Labour will then pull even as the Tory vote erodes and Labour consolidates some of the anti-Tory vote.

Result: Labour minority


I wish gambling was legal or possible through this site.

You are out of your mind if you think Labour is winning a minority government.

A hung parliament is the absolute best anyone can hope for.

I’m an American so I don’t have a dog in the fight but if I was a Brit, I’d be a moderate Labour voter (think Blair) but one who supports leave. I think Corbyn is horrific. But then again I think the Tories Brexit deal is awful as well, so it’s a lose lose all around.

I think you’re looking at a result approximately:

Conservative 340
Labour 200
Liberal Democrat 50
Brexit 5
Independent 16


Put me down for Burlington Bertie 100/30 on a Labour minority ;)

On a serious note, granted, if the current polls are correct (and note there is some variation between the polling companies, with the Tory lead bouncing around between 3-15 points) a Labour minority is unlikely. However, my somewhat facetious post above was a synecdoche for that fact that polls can easily change in the campaign, as of course they did in 2017, when the Tories blew a 20 point lead over Labour (which was considered even less of a threat back then than it is now). Whilst I’m sure Johnson, Swinson, the Media punditry class and galaxy brain psephologists would love for the election to polarize around the issue of leaving the EU, there are other issues out there, and most of those are not favourable  to the Tories.

The Tories have several big issues which I think will harm them significantly in the campaign. Firstly, they continue to be weighed down by the baggage of ‘austerity’, and no matter how much money they promise to spend to reverse it, they will always be outbid by Labour, who did this very effectively in 2017. I think if Corbyn and Labour roll out a similar manifesto to the one they did last time, this will be helpful in consolidating the anti-Tory vote.

Secondly, whilst he’s not quite as bad as Theresa May (who had the wit and charisma of my left shoe), I do not think Johnson will perform well on the campaign trail and I think he will be liable to get embroiled in embarrassing imbroglios similar to the one I mentioned in my previous post. Whilst he had this reputation as this great, charismatic campaigner when he was Mayor of London, I think the crucial thing in his favour was that there was, relatively speaking, a lot of goodwill for him (which has since evaporated), and he was running for a Mickey Mouse position with comparatively little power. Nothing I have seen of him over the last couple of years makes me believe that he will be able to stand up to scrutiny in a general election campaign.

Thirdly, unlike in the last election when the Tories largely consolidated the pro-Brexit vote and had no significant opposition to their right, in this election the Brexit party will be a very real problem. They may not be polling at 20% anymore, but even if they get half of that that will cause serious problems for the Tories. I was looking at the Scottish polls, and I noted that if you put the Tories and the Brexit party together (and I assume the Brexit party vote has come largely from the Tories in Scotland) then the Tories would be in the same place votes wise as they were in 2017. Of course, they’d still probably lose seats, as the SNP have also risen in the polls, but vote splitting between the Tories and the Brexit party will make that situation much worse. This applies to all of the country, not just Scotland, although I picked that out because it shows how the Brexit party can negatively impact the Tories even in fairly remainy type areas.

I just don’t believe the polls will stay in their current position - I think the Tories will bleed support and that Labour will once again manage to consolidate some of the anti-Tory vote, although probably not to the same extent as in 2017, which potentially opens the possibility of a Labour minority, of the Tories lose a significant number of seats and Labour either tread water or make some modest gains.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on October 29, 2019, 08:05:27 am
There will be a few amendments that are in the works to lower the voting age, give voting rights to Uk residents who are eu citizens and to cap election spending. I think the former would have the most chance of passing, but it would be opposed by the government.

Sam Gyimah to stand in Kensington.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: MillennialModerate on October 29, 2019, 08:15:54 am
I really hope Farage gets a seat this time. He’ll be tempted to run in a Labour Leave constituency but that’s not the right move. I think he’s got conviction, believes in his cause and unlike his friend Trump - isn’t a fraud


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: HuskofCorn on October 29, 2019, 08:25:39 am
I think he’s got conviction, believes in his cause and unlike his friend Trump - isn’t a fraud
LMAO


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Zinneke on October 29, 2019, 08:28:18 am
There will be a few amendments that are in the works to lower the voting age, give voting rights to Uk residents who are eu citizens and to cap election spending. I think the former would have the most chance of passing, but it would be opposed by the government.

Sam Gyimah to stand in Kensington.

Will this help Labour or Tories?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: EastAnglianLefty on October 29, 2019, 08:31:05 am
There will be a few amendments that are in the works to lower the voting age, give voting rights to Uk residents who are eu citizens and to cap election spending. I think the former would have the most chance of passing, but it would be opposed by the government.

Sam Gyimah to stand in Kensington.

Will this help Labour or Tories?

No.

It does help the Lib Dems, who had previously selected a follower of Lutfur Rahman as their candidate there, but probably not enough to matter very much.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: PoliticalShelter on October 29, 2019, 08:35:14 am

Could end up being neither as its possible that Kensington could turn into a 3 way race in this election.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: jaichind on October 29, 2019, 08:54:59 am
It seems to me the key issue here are the size and nature of the LAB-LDEM-Green tactical voting versus CON-BXP tactical voting.  The way these tactial voting goes will determine if this is NOM or some CON majority of unknown size.   One thing to note is that due to the Brexit issue I believe LDEM would have a lot more financial resources this around versus previous elections.   


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: libertpaulian on October 29, 2019, 09:07:44 am
Hopefully we see a humiliating defeat for Comrade Corbyn and a return to Blairism for Labour.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: cp on October 29, 2019, 09:30:42 am

[snip]

On a serious note, granted, if the current polls are correct (and note there is some variation between the polling companies, with the Tory lead bouncing around between 3-15 points) a Labour minority is unlikely. However, my somewhat facetious post above was a synecdoche for that fact that polls can easily change in the campaign, as of course they did in 2017, when the Tories blew a 20 point lead over Labour (which was considered even less of a threat back then than it is now). Whilst I’m sure Johnson, Swinson, the Media punditry class and galaxy brain psephologists would love for the election to polarize around the issue of leaving the EU, there are other issues out there, and most of those are not favourable  to the Tories.

This is my read, too. There's no doubt Labour is starting further behind and with more baggage than they had in 2017, but the same is true of the Tories and then some. Add to that the spoiler factor of the Brexit Party, the (high, I think) likelihood of tactical voting by non-Tory/Brexit parties, and the relative campaigning abilities of the respective party leaders and I think there is far more likelihood of a pro-Labour upset than a pro-Tory status quo.

I don't expect there to be much movement in the polls for a while, though. If an anti-Tory result is what comes about, it will only start to materialize in the final few weeks of the campaign. The first month or so will be a kind of unofficial 'primary' campaign for which party gets to be the primary opposition to the Tories; this is rather like how the NDP/Liberals fought it out in August/September of the 2015 GE.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 29, 2019, 09:35:40 am
This is very likely to be the most Brexit-focused election yet, perhaps even more then the EU election. Boris has been campaigning more or less since he entered govt, and the only thing the guy is actually good at is running a campaign/getting people to believe his lies and vote for him. He won in London after all as a Tory, and I know that was a different time  but...

So, lets engage in a little though experiment that I ran last night. Lets take the 2017 election results (a 'normal' party breakdown) and the 2019 elections results (a 'brexit' focused breakdown) by consistency into a spreadsheet. On one  side we will have the Tories, UKIP, and Brexit - this will be called the Leave block. On the  other side we will have Labour, Lib-Dems, SNP, Greens, PC, and CHUK - this will be referred to as the  opposition. Add up each of their vote shares in each constituency for each election. Ignore NI because there are no 2019 numbers for that and it's elections are weird. Lets be sure to apply some weight to the opposition numbers, say a multiplier of .85 on their result in each seat to account for the naturally inefficient vote splitting between SNP/Lab/Remain forces. Now, lets weight each result (2017 and 2019) by 50% and add them together to see what the seat breakdown is.

We get a total Leave Block seat count of around 345-350. This thought experiment does not predict seat outcomes, but I think it is a good indicator of a overall total. Boris has been chasing the metaphorical dragon of the leave-labour seats and even if he gets just a bit it will be more than enough to counter losses in Scotland, London, the London bedroom communities, and various urban regions throughout the country.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on October 29, 2019, 10:24:51 am
This is very likely to be the most Brexit-focused election yet, perhaps even more then the EU election. Boris has been campaigning more or less since he entered govt, and the only thing the guy is actually good at is running a campaign/getting people to believe his lies and vote for him. He won in London after all as a Tory, and I know that was a different time  but...

On each occasion (2008 and 2012) he actually performed a bit less well than polls predicted.

(and his personal popularity was greater, at the very least he was less toxic to non-Tories than now)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 29, 2019, 11:11:42 am
This is very likely to be the most Brexit-focused election yet, perhaps even more then the EU election. Boris has been campaigning more or less since he entered govt, and the only thing the guy is actually good at is running a campaign/getting people to believe his lies and vote for him. He won in London after all as a Tory, and I know that was a different time  but...

On each occasion (2008 and 2012) he actually performed a bit less well than polls predicted.

(and his personal popularity was greater, at the very least he was less toxic to non-Tories than now)

I'm not sure if under/overpreforming actually matters here. If you are a member of one party, and you are able to convince the stronghold of another party (less so during the period in question, but still applicable) to vote you in, you have already succeeded. You kinda confirmed my point there, Boris is great at crafting personas to appeal to whatever demographic he needs to win, be it more 'liberal' Londoners or Brexit-voting northerners. He's good at making you think he's appealing and on your side if you are the target, even though deep down he is still the same old rotting Boris Johnson.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on October 29, 2019, 11:15:26 am
This is very likely to be the most Brexit-focused election yet, perhaps even more then the EU election.

And sorry, but this is a ridiculous statement.

Those elections were basically *nothing* but a glorified opinion poll on Brexit (this tendency being all the greater due to their essential meaninglessness)

Whatever happens in the coming GE, those hoping for that yet again are likely to be disappointed.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Zinneke on October 29, 2019, 11:27:37 am
This is very likely to be the most Brexit-focused election yet, perhaps even more then the EU election.

And sorry, but this is a ridiculous statement.

Those elections were basically *nothing* but a glorified opinion poll on Brexit (this tendency being all the greater due to their essential meaninglessness)

Whatever happens in the coming GE, those hoping for that yet again are likely to be disappointed.

Especially as it seems Johnson's gamble that Remainer Tories would still back him and a Harder Brexit over Corbyn seems to have worked.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on October 29, 2019, 11:29:24 am
How likely Tories get rinsed in Cornwall, Norfolk, London, and Scotland? Enough to lose any chance of a majority despite 10 point lead?

They'll be decimated in Scotland and emaciated in some of their London seats. That should be enough to make a majority very tight, although how well they do in Labour-Leave constituencies in the north will probably determine the election. I certainly don't think the Tories should be as eager for an election as they seem.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Tintrlvr on October 29, 2019, 11:42:46 am
There will be a few amendments that are in the works to lower the voting age, give voting rights to Uk residents who are eu citizens and to cap election spending. I think the former would have the most chance of passing, but it would be opposed by the government.

Sam Gyimah to stand in Kensington.

Will this help Labour or Tories?

To the extent it helps either, presumably the Tories, because the ultra-Remainer typically Tory voters who voted Labour as a backlash against Victoria Borwick in 2017 will mostly vote for him, and Labour can't win Kensington without them. In extremis, maybe he could win the seat through the middle. I don't know enough about the Tory candidate to say; if she's a strong Leaver, Gyimah has a chance. She has apparently stumbled around totally unwinnable seats for the last couple of elections (South Down in 2015 and South Shields in 2017), so she may just be loyal footsoldier type.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 29, 2019, 12:27:44 pm
Only tabled Amendments selected today for a commons vote concern the election date, no 16/17, no EU nationals, no future vote system changes, no mass postal ballots.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: EastAnglianLefty on October 29, 2019, 12:45:03 pm
There will be a few amendments that are in the works to lower the voting age, give voting rights to Uk residents who are eu citizens and to cap election spending. I think the former would have the most chance of passing, but it would be opposed by the government.

Sam Gyimah to stand in Kensington.

Will this help Labour or Tories?

To the extent it helps either, presumably the Tories, because the ultra-Remainer typically Tory voters who voted Labour as a backlash against Victoria Borwick in 2017 will mostly vote for him, and Labour can't win Kensington without them. In extremis, maybe he could win the seat through the middle. I don't know enough about the Tory candidate to say; if she's a strong Leaver, Gyimah has a chance. She has apparently stumbled around totally unwinnable seats for the last couple of elections (South Down in 2015 and South Shields in 2017), so she may just be loyal footsoldier type.

This isn't really true. Remainer Tories in Kensington were never going to vote Labour, because nobody in their family has done that since 1832. We are talking about a very posh, very wealthy and implacably anti-Labour demographic.

The reason they lost in 2017 was that a) some of those Remainer Tories voted Lib Dem (as was the case in a fair swathe of well-off west London); b) more of those Remainer Tories didn't vote; c) there are fewer of those Remainer Tories than there used to be, because they're being outcompeted in the property market by oligarchs and have to move to Chiswick instead and d) turnout in the Labour-voting estates went up, as has been the pattern for a little while now.

The following article takes a pretty solid go at putting forward the case for Gyimah, but it's notable that it only really addresses the posher half of the seat. Unless we start seeing active evidence that he's making inroads in the more down-at-heel bits of North Kensington, I struggle to see his path to victory.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/10/sam-gyimah-standing-kensington-can-he-win


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Tintrlvr on October 29, 2019, 12:59:02 pm
There will be a few amendments that are in the works to lower the voting age, give voting rights to Uk residents who are eu citizens and to cap election spending. I think the former would have the most chance of passing, but it would be opposed by the government.

Sam Gyimah to stand in Kensington.

Will this help Labour or Tories?

To the extent it helps either, presumably the Tories, because the ultra-Remainer typically Tory voters who voted Labour as a backlash against Victoria Borwick in 2017 will mostly vote for him, and Labour can't win Kensington without them. In extremis, maybe he could win the seat through the middle. I don't know enough about the Tory candidate to say; if she's a strong Leaver, Gyimah has a chance. She has apparently stumbled around totally unwinnable seats for the last couple of elections (South Down in 2015 and South Shields in 2017), so she may just be loyal footsoldier type.

This isn't really true. Remainer Tories in Kensington were never going to vote Labour, because nobody in their family has done that since 1832. We are talking about a very posh, very wealthy and implacably anti-Labour demographic.

The reason they lost in 2017 was that a) some of those Remainer Tories voted Lib Dem (as was the case in a fair swathe of well-off west London); b) more of those Remainer Tories didn't vote; c) there are fewer of those Remainer Tories than there used to be, because they're being outcompeted in the property market by oligarchs and have to move to Chiswick instead and d) turnout in the Labour-voting estates went up, as has been the pattern for a little while now.

The following article takes a pretty solid go at putting forward the case for Gyimah, but it's notable that it only really addresses the posher half of the seat. Unless we start seeing active evidence that he's making inroads in the more down-at-heel bits of North Kensington, I struggle to see his path to victory.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/10/sam-gyimah-standing-kensington-can-he-win

It's kind of crazy to deny that a bunch of (obviously not all) Remainer Tories voted Labour in Kensington in 2017. The factors you cite happened, too, but turnout was up overall, and swings like that against the national grain don't just happen because of organization. Tory Remainers voting Labour was the only reason it was competitive in the first place: Borwick, as an ardent Leave campaigner, was a dreadful fit for the constituency, and many Tory Remainers who had only ever voted Tory before abandoned her - some, yes, for the Lib Dems, but a larger share for Labour. Obviously many Tory Remainers stuck with the Tories anyway in 2017 (if they hadn't, Borwick would have gotten around 20% of the vote instead of over 40% of the vote), but Tory Remainers who voted for Borwick are probably mostly going to vote for another Tory this time around, too, especially one who is less strongly associated with the Leave campaign than Borwick was (although apparently the new candidate writes for "BrexitCentral.com", so maybe she's not much of a shift from Borwick ideologically).


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: jaichind on October 29, 2019, 01:02:19 pm
Befair markets for vote share seems to imply CON at around 37%, LAB around 25% and LDEM around 20%


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 29, 2019, 01:06:14 pm
()

All October polls conducted before the vote tonight.

()

Scotland.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Krago on October 29, 2019, 01:23:33 pm
I was looking up UK election odds on betting sites and found 'Nigel Farage Specials'.

Worst. Ska band. Ever.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Helsinkian on October 29, 2019, 01:31:53 pm
Conservative Party restores whip to ten of the rebel MPs who were kicked out earlier.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: jaichind on October 29, 2019, 01:42:19 pm
Conservative Party restores whip to ten of the rebel MPs who were kicked out earlier.

Ken Clarke is not one of them.  Good.  One good thing about this election is he is now out for good one way or another.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat on October 29, 2019, 01:51:09 pm
Ugh. We can but hope that Al, and presumably the Lib Dems, are right and the Tory polling lead won't be enough to overcome their anemic overall vote share.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: President Johnson on October 29, 2019, 02:11:30 pm
As I'm tired of the Brexit drama, I hope BoJo wins a mandate to get it done finally, even though I would vote for the Liberal Democrats. And hopefully Labor loses big, so that Corbyn is finally gone and they could (at least in theory) return to Blairism.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat on October 29, 2019, 02:15:25 pm
And hopefully Labor loses big, so that Corbyn is finally gone and they could (at least in theory) return to Blairism.

Dichotomies To Watch Out For


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on October 29, 2019, 02:49:51 pm
As I'm tired of the Brexit drama, I hope BoJo wins a mandate to get it done finally, even though I would vote for the Liberal Democrats. And hopefully Labor loses big, so that Corbyn is finally gone and they could (at least in theory) return to Blairism.

Blairism is dead, was dead before Corbyn and it does not hold a monopoly on the Labour Right. Indeed, you could argye that the struggle for the Right to find its identity after Blair is a big reason for its internal failure today.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 29, 2019, 03:01:46 pm
Amendment vote:

Ayes: 295
Nos: 315

GE will be on December 12.

Scottish harmonization of registration dates (recognizing the banking holiday) is unanimous.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: DaWN on October 29, 2019, 03:02:00 pm
As I'm tired of the Brexit drama, I hope BoJo wins a mandate to get it done finally, even though I would vote for the Liberal Democrats. And hopefully Labor loses big, so that Corbyn is finally gone and they could (at least in theory) return to Blairism.

Blairism is dead, was dead before Corbyn and it does not hold a monopoly on the Labour Right. Indeed, you could argye that the struggle for the Right to find its identity after Blair is a big reason for its internal failure today.

This.

Also, some people seriously need to get it out of their heads that the far-left genie is going back in the bottle when Corbyn goes. His replacement will just as, if not more, left-wing than he is. The inability of those on the centre and centre-left to just let go of Labour has been/is one of the most frustrating things to watch over the past few years.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Pericles on October 29, 2019, 03:14:40 pm
Really hope Labour pulls through here, while Corbyn isn't great the LibDems and the Tories are both worse imo, and the LibDems still can't win in most constituencies so voting for them just helps get Boris back in. There is a lot of volatility so hope is not lost. However I am pessimistic about this and think Boris probably gets a majority.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 29, 2019, 03:21:05 pm
Apparently Parliament will be dissolving on the 5th November.

And the election results will be reported the  morning of Friday 13th December.

God has certainly lost the plot for reality.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: afleitch on October 29, 2019, 03:22:42 pm
I'll be in Florida :/


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Lumine on October 29, 2019, 03:25:01 pm
438 to 20, the bill for the General Election passes. All that's left is the Lords.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 29, 2019, 03:30:07 pm
Whilst he had this reputation as this great, charismatic campaigner when he was Mayor of London, I think the crucial thing in his favour was that there was, relatively speaking, a lot of goodwill for him (which has since evaporated), and he was running for a Mickey Mouse position with comparatively little power.

He was also running against Ken Livingstone, who had reached his electoral sell-by date in 2008 and was even less inherently appealing when he ran again four years later.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12, 2019
Post by: afleitch on October 29, 2019, 03:36:12 pm
I will probably be doing some on the ground activity for the first time in 8 years, even though I won't be here for the last week.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Gary J on October 29, 2019, 03:37:26 pm
Apparently Parliament will be dissolving on the 5th November.

And the election results will be reported the  morning of Friday 13th December.

God has certainly lost the plot for reality.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, leader of the House of Commons, just announced in the House that the dissolution will take place at 1 minute after midnight on 6th November.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 29, 2019, 03:41:12 pm
Something important to be aware of: once the campaign period begins, strict rules about broadcast media coverage for political parties are imposed. Note that most people get their news from the broadcast media and pay much more attention to the political items during an election campaign than the rest of the time. So this matters a lot.

Anyway, broadcast media coverage over the past few months has recently focused very, very heavily on the government and on the Conservative Party. Once the campaign rules kick in, just about everyone (Labour, the LibDems, the Brexit Party...) will get more airtime. This will have an effect. Exactly how much always varies, but it matters.

Or to put things more bluntly: it will not be possible for the government to run a 'people vs. parliament' (absurd concept, whatever) campaign, because the broadcast regulations will not allow for the coverage shares that might allow it.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Ishan on October 29, 2019, 03:44:10 pm
As I'm tired of the Brexit drama, I hope BoJo wins a mandate to get it done finally, even though I would vote for the Liberal Democrats. And hopefully Labor loses big, so that Corbyn is finally gone and they could (at least in theory) return to Blairism.


Blairism isn't in the Labour party anymore, the Lib Dems has inherited Blairism.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 29, 2019, 03:45:55 pm
Right, can we all agree to behave as adults in this thread? It isn't a game for the entertainment of baboons: some of us have to live here.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on October 29, 2019, 03:51:40 pm
Hopefully, Tories get a majority


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: xelas81 on October 29, 2019, 04:25:07 pm
Right, can we all agree to behave as adults in this thread? It isn't a game for the entertainment of baboons: some of us have to live here.

Solution
Have a separate thread for the yanks and ban all Americans from the real thread.
Yes, I am including myself when I say all Americans. :)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat on October 29, 2019, 04:31:37 pm
Right, can we all agree to behave as adults in this thread? It isn't a game for the entertainment of baboons: some of us have to live here.

Solution
Have a separate thread for the yanks and ban all Americans from the real thread.
Yes, I am including myself when I say all Americans. :)

Seconded. To use a very American saying, I'm willing to take one for the team.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: EastAnglianLefty on October 29, 2019, 04:34:56 pm
There will be a few amendments that are in the works to lower the voting age, give voting rights to Uk residents who are eu citizens and to cap election spending. I think the former would have the most chance of passing, but it would be opposed by the government.

Sam Gyimah to stand in Kensington.

Will this help Labour or Tories?

To the extent it helps either, presumably the Tories, because the ultra-Remainer typically Tory voters who voted Labour as a backlash against Victoria Borwick in 2017 will mostly vote for him, and Labour can't win Kensington without them. In extremis, maybe he could win the seat through the middle. I don't know enough about the Tory candidate to say; if she's a strong Leaver, Gyimah has a chance. She has apparently stumbled around totally unwinnable seats for the last couple of elections (South Down in 2015 and South Shields in 2017), so she may just be loyal footsoldier type.

This isn't really true. Remainer Tories in Kensington were never going to vote Labour, because nobody in their family has done that since 1832. We are talking about a very posh, very wealthy and implacably anti-Labour demographic.

The reason they lost in 2017 was that a) some of those Remainer Tories voted Lib Dem (as was the case in a fair swathe of well-off west London); b) more of those Remainer Tories didn't vote; c) there are fewer of those Remainer Tories than there used to be, because they're being outcompeted in the property market by oligarchs and have to move to Chiswick instead and d) turnout in the Labour-voting estates went up, as has been the pattern for a little while now.

The following article takes a pretty solid go at putting forward the case for Gyimah, but it's notable that it only really addresses the posher half of the seat. Unless we start seeing active evidence that he's making inroads in the more down-at-heel bits of North Kensington, I struggle to see his path to victory.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/10/sam-gyimah-standing-kensington-can-he-win

It's kind of crazy to deny that a bunch of (obviously not all) Remainer Tories voted Labour in Kensington in 2017. The factors you cite happened, too, but turnout was up overall, and swings like that against the national grain don't just happen because of organization. Tory Remainers voting Labour was the only reason it was competitive in the first place: Borwick, as an ardent Leave campaigner, was a dreadful fit for the constituency, and many Tory Remainers who had only ever voted Tory before abandoned her - some, yes, for the Lib Dems, but a larger share for Labour. Obviously many Tory Remainers stuck with the Tories anyway in 2017 (if they hadn't, Borwick would have gotten around 20% of the vote instead of over 40% of the vote), but Tory Remainers who voted for Borwick are probably mostly going to vote for another Tory this time around, too, especially one who is less strongly associated with the Leave campaign than Borwick was (although apparently the new candidate writes for "BrexitCentral.com", so maybe she's not much of a shift from Borwick ideologically).

I'd invite you to check the 2014 and 2018 local election results. In almost every ward, there's a notable lack of Lab-Con swing, with the only difference being slightly higher turnout in 2018 (primarily but not exclusive to Labour's benefit.) And that was after not just Brexit but the Grenfell Tower fire. We are talking about a remarkably inelastic electorate, on both sides of the divide.

Yes, of course there will be a few voters who switched directly from the Conservatives to Labour (and with a 20 vote majority, more or less any group can be crucial.) But they're a very small part of the picture and the sorts of voters who are most likely to switch don't live in Kensington in large numbers. Dent Coad won in 2017 because it's a seat where Labour can be competitive when we turn our vote out successfully and the Tories don't (had it existed in 1997 and 2001, we'd have won it then too). Direct switchers are very much a third-tier factor there.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on October 29, 2019, 04:35:24 pm
Speaking of Americans, Michael gets to vote in his first GE. His mind is already blown with it just being an 'x' in a box.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on October 29, 2019, 04:37:29 pm
I assume this election is still going with the 650 seat boundaries and not the proposed 600 seat boundaries.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat on October 29, 2019, 04:40:07 pm
Speaking of Americans, Michael gets to vote in his first GE. His mind is already blown with it just being an 'x' in a box.

Are you guys going to be voting early/absentee? How does that process work in the UK?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on October 29, 2019, 04:46:51 pm
Speaking of Americans, Michael gets to vote in his first GE. His mind is already blown with it just being an 'x' in a box.

Are you guys going to be voting early/absentee? How does that process work in the UK?

Yeah. We'll apply for postal votes sharpish. We'll get them once the 'notice of poll' with all the candidates has been published. Then vote and post.

I think a very sizable number will vote by post because there's a risk of adverse weather and there's only 7 hours daylight where I am at that time of year (which if overcast can end up being only 4 or 5 hours...)

Which is something pollsters will have to consider as in some seats we could be looking at close to 40% or 50% of votes being cast weeks before.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Thomas D on October 29, 2019, 05:06:48 pm
If you look at everything that has happened in the UK since 2010, this has been the most surreal decade in the UK since the war.

Why wouldn't it end with PM Jeremy Corbyn 


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 29, 2019, 05:14:02 pm
If you look at everything that has happened in the UK since 2010, this has been the most surreal decade in the UK since the war.

Why wouldn't it end with PM Jeremy Corbyn 

Because Jo Swinson getting the keys to number 10 would be more surreal, if that's the criteria :P


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on October 29, 2019, 05:49:19 pm
Owen Smith (remember him?) is standing down in Pontypridd, as is Heidi Allen.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 29, 2019, 05:56:28 pm


??? ??? ???


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: IceAgeComing on October 29, 2019, 05:59:00 pm
He resigned from the whip to vote for the deal and the expectation was that this is what he'd do - he remained close with the Lib Dems and the deal was basically "let us know when you want to come back".


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 29, 2019, 06:04:57 pm
He resigned from the whip to vote for the deal and the expectation was that this is what he'd do - he remained close with the Lib Dems and the deal was basically "let us know when you want to come back".

I mean the Lib-Dems these days are going to be winning seats based on them being the party with full ownership of the Hard Remain column. Breaking the party line on this most crucial issue, frequently, and then returning to said party even though your views are against their number one selling point is awkward.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: LabourJersey on October 29, 2019, 06:14:14 pm
I really hope Farage gets a seat this time. He’ll be tempted to run in a Labour Leave constituency but that’s not the right move. I think he’s got conviction, believes in his cause and unlike his friend Trump - isn’t a fraud

Dude Nigel Farage is one of the biggest frauds in UK politics.

The man made a small fortune in the City yet claims to be a Common Man who understands the Real British. He's married to a German woman but made his political fortunes around demonizing foreigners and anyone who wasn't just like him and his cronies in UKIP. Getting brexit delivered is second to ensuring his own political fortunes and the attention he gets

He's a shameless far-right hack, just like Trump. He's got no "conviction" aside from believing in himself


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 29, 2019, 06:19:33 pm


I think this not paywalled poll tracker needed to be pinned to the thread, since it makes the geographic and demographic breakdowns (and their change) in each poll nice and visible, in addition to the fluctuation in the topline.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on October 29, 2019, 06:22:46 pm
All I can say is thank God the will-they-won't-they hold an election storyline is finally over. The most tedious week in the history of British politics.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on October 29, 2019, 06:29:36 pm
In Northern Ireland, the UUP claim that they don't want any pacts with the DUP (which in fairness were not the greatest deals in the world for the former) potentially damaging Nigel Dodds in N Belfast, Emma Little Pengelly in S. Belfast and reducing chances of picking up Fermanagh and South Tyrone (one would hope that the DUP being completely craven bastards would also imperil them, but this is nothing new).

Other questions will be whether Collum Eastwood stands in Foyle, Naomi Long stands in W Belfast and whether Lady Hermon stands again in N Down.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Dereich on October 29, 2019, 06:29:49 pm
So the union for Royal Mail has already voted for industrial action by 97% of voting members. The union general secretary is keeping open the threat of a postal strike during the election.




Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Gary J on October 29, 2019, 06:44:12 pm
I assume this election is still going with the 650 seat boundaries and not the proposed 600 seat boundaries.

The 650 seat boundaries are still in force and will be unchanged since the 2017 election.

Neither Theresa May nor Boris Johnson have demonstrated any interest in implementing the 600 seat boundary proposals. In formal terms all that was necessary was to produce a draft Order in Council and getting Parliament to vote for it. This would then lead to the reorganization of constituency party structures and a game of musical chairs amongst the MPs scrambling for a reduced number of candidacies.

It was suggested, when the boundary commission reports were issued, that Theresa May was not confident that she could get a majority for the revised boundaries. Parliament was told that it would take some time for the Order in Council to be drafted and somehow it has never since been produced.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Lechasseur on October 29, 2019, 06:44:47 pm
Conservative Party restores whip to ten of the rebel MPs who were kicked out earlier.

Which MPs are those?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Lechasseur on October 29, 2019, 06:54:51 pm
Conservative Party restores whip to ten of the rebel MPs who were kicked out earlier.

Which MPs are those?

Ok I found the list, it appears in this article:

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/29/tories-restore-party-whip-to-10-mps-who-sought-to-block-no-deal-brexit


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on October 29, 2019, 06:56:57 pm
Even if the LibDems collapse over the course of the campaign, the distribution of their vote could be much less uniform than is usually the case, confounding our expectations and resulting in an outcome that none of us anticipate. In the event that the LibDems actually receive over 20% of the vote, I'd expect that result to be very distinct from past elections where LibDems received a similar vote share. Thus, this election is kind of a "black box" for long-time followers of British politics - you can punch the vote shares for each party into a seat calculator and the seat count could be wildly off!

I don't want to overempashize this because the present government is extremely unpopular, granting the possibility that the LibDems could very well appeal to their traditional electorate, which is far from being uniformly "eurosceptic" anyways, but even the possibility of a strategically-distributed LibDem electorate emerging strikes me as being very consequential


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: Krago on October 29, 2019, 06:58:05 pm
Apparently Parliament will be dissolving on the 5th November.

And the election results will be reported the  morning of Friday 13th December.

God has certainly lost the plot for reality.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, leader of the House of Commons, just announced in the House that the dissolution will take place at 1 minute after midnight on 6th November.

Can The Queen stay up that late?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on October 29, 2019, 07:08:51 pm
In Northern Ireland, the UUP claim that they don't want any pacts with the DUP (which in fairness were not the greatest deals in the world for the former) potentially damaging Nigel Dodds in N Belfast, Emma Little Pengelly in S. Belfast and reducing chances of picking up Fermanagh and South Tyrone (one would hope that the DUP being completely craven bastards would also imperil them, but this is nothing new).

Other questions will be whether Collum Eastwood stands in Foyle, Naomi Long stands in W Belfast and whether Lady Hermon stands again in N Down.

FPP is always evil, of course, but it is particularly comically ill-suited for an area like Northern Ireland.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on October 29, 2019, 07:16:05 pm
All I can say is thank God the will-they-won't-they hold an election storyline is finally over. The most tedious week in the history of British politics.


Well its not *finally* over until the election bill passes the Lords and becomes law......


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 29, 2019, 07:25:52 pm
Even if the LibDems collapse over the course of the campaign, the distribution of their vote could be much less uniform than is usually the case, confounding our expectations and resulting in an outcome that none of us anticipate. In the event that the LibDems actually receive over 20% of the vote, I'd expect that result to be very distinct from past elections where LibDems received a similar vote share. Thus, this election is kind of a "black box" for long-time followers of British politics - you can punch the vote shares for each party into a seat calculator and the seat count could be wildly off!

I don't want to overempashize this because the present government is extremely unpopular, granting the possibility that the LibDems could very well appeal to their traditional electorate, which is far from being uniformly "eurosceptic" anyways, but even the possibility of a strategically-distributed LibDem electorate emerging strikes me as being very consequential

Yes, the proper take until the campaign seriously kick into high gear is that this election will be a black box. You mention the nature of the vote splits, but that is only one part of the equation. Looking at the tracker I posted, the tories are even with labour in the north, which mind you includes Labour strongholds like Manchester, Leeds, and Liverpool, while the Tories are only outpacing the opposition by 20 points in their usually (30ish pts) lock-step south. It's very possible that there are  far less damaging vote splits  between the LDs and Lab, because  they appeal as parties to two different sides of the electorate. Or the Tories will waltz down the middle. We don't know. The only thing that can be said for certain in my eyes is that many seats will be changing hands in many directions, and a good deal of those seats may be ones that come as a shock to prognosticators used to the old party strongholds.

For example, the first constituencies to usually announce, the Sunderlands, shouldn't be anything but safe labour under normal circumstances. But this election is a black box, and a community that returned some of the strongest results for Leave in 2016 and the Brexit Party in 2019 can't be ignored as potential targets depending on polling data. We don't know, the only thing the black box is willing to tell us is that near every seat could be competitive this cycle, and the calculators are worse then useless.  The only people who have any sort of grasp on the data right now are sitting in party war rooms right now, we just have to wait for things to kick into high gear.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on October 29, 2019, 08:41:44 pm
What would happen if the Tories fell around 10 seats short of a majority as they are now? So an effective majority is probably around 320 seats, and the Tories need at least 310 seats to be able to have the confidence of the House even if the DUP supports them. How would the UK move forward with Brexit if it's a bit of a status quo result, so like 315 Conservative MPs. In such a scenario Labour probably loses around 30 seats if not more.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Dereich on October 29, 2019, 09:12:02 pm
What would happen if the Tories fell around 10 seats short of a majority as they are now? So an effective majority is probably around 320 seats, and the Tories need at least 310 seats to be able to have the confidence of the House even if the DUP supports them. How would the UK move forward with Brexit if it's a bit of a status quo result, so like 315 Conservative MPs. In such a scenario Labour probably loses around 30 seats if not more.

The Tories probably can't count on the DUP anymore, not after selling them out to get a new Brexit deal.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on October 29, 2019, 09:16:03 pm
What would happen if the Tories fell around 10 seats short of a majority as they are now? So an effective majority is probably around 320 seats, and the Tories need at least 310 seats to be able to have the confidence of the House even if the DUP supports them. How would the UK move forward with Brexit if it's a bit of a status quo result, so like 315 Conservative MPs. In such a scenario Labour probably loses around 30 seats if not more.

The Tories probably can't count on the DUP anymore, not after selling them out to get a new Brexit deal.

Perhaps, but the DUP still loathes Corbyn, I doubt they back him. Though perhaps Corbyn could be forced to resign and the minor parties prop up a non-Corbyn Labour government and pass a second referendum before having another election, but there might not be the numbers for a second referendum in such a parliament either.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Tintrlvr on October 29, 2019, 09:20:20 pm
What would happen if the Tories fell around 10 seats short of a majority as they are now? So an effective majority is probably around 320 seats, and the Tories need at least 310 seats to be able to have the confidence of the House even if the DUP supports them. How would the UK move forward with Brexit if it's a bit of a status quo result, so like 315 Conservative MPs. In such a scenario Labour probably loses around 30 seats if not more.

They would have largely purged the Remainer rebels, so a similar result to 2017 is still probably a success for Johnson.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 29, 2019, 09:22:33 pm
What would happen if the Tories fell around 10 seats short of a majority as they are now? So an effective majority is probably around 320 seats, and the Tories need at least 310 seats to be able to have the confidence of the House even if the DUP supports them. How would the UK move forward with Brexit if it's a bit of a status quo result, so like 315 Conservative MPs. In such a scenario Labour probably loses around 30 seats if not more.

The only thing with any guarantee of occurring in such a scenario would be more gridlock. The opposition could form a govt, but realistically it would be just like the present opposition - glued together solely by opposition to Tories. According to news pieces, nobody wants the status quo to return to Westminster.

The other likely thing that can't be ignored is that no matter what happens after this election, the Tories are going to be far more  in tune with Brexit. Boris's purges, various retirements and new  nominations, and their expectation to gain Brexit-voting seats  and lose remain voting ones all point to a Conservative party more united around the PM and Brexit as an issue. No more  backbench revolts and '5th columnists' for them.  


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Kingpoleon on October 29, 2019, 10:14:58 pm
I’m sorry to bring it up again, but it seems to have been lost in the shuffle.

Assuming the Conservatives hit ~295, Labour hits well below that, but SNP and the Lib Dems could get them to a majority, will either Corbyn or Johnson ever give in to Swinson’s demands on the EU in Johnson’s case and Corbyn as PM in Labour’s case?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: AndyHogan14 on October 29, 2019, 11:52:37 pm
While we do not get many polls outside of Northern Ireland very often, the most recent polling that I can find has the Alliance Party making gains while the other parties are remaining stagnant. That may put Belfast East and Belfast North in play. Also, while I wouldn't bet on it, can the UUP or SDLP steal a constituency away from the DUP or SF respectively? An SDLP MP would raise the threshold for a majority while a UUP MP would be a bit of a wildcard on how they would vote when it comes to Brexit.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: rob in cal on October 30, 2019, 01:33:32 am
Is there any discussion about electoral pacts, stand down agreements etc?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on October 30, 2019, 01:49:39 am
Is there any discussion about electoral pacts, stand down agreements etc?

The Lib Dems are allegedly in talks with Plaid Cymru, the SNP, and Greens about selected stand downs in a handful of seats. The Tories have categorically ruled out any cooperation with the Brexit Party. I don't think the Brexit Party has responded in kind, but the inexorable logic of the situation is that they will attempt to stand a full slate of candidates.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Gary J on October 30, 2019, 02:52:08 am
Is there any discussion about electoral pacts, stand down agreements etc?

The Lib Dems are allegedly in talks with Plaid Cymru, the SNP, and Greens about selected stand downs in a handful of seats. The Tories have categorically ruled out any cooperation with the Brexit Party. I don't think the Brexit Party has responded in kind, but the inexorable logic of the situation is that they will attempt to stand a full slate of candidates.

It is extremely unlikely that Labour and pretty unlikely that the Conservatives will not have a candidate in every seat in Great Britain, except possibly the constituency of a new Speaker if one gets elected on Monday.

The Liberal Democrats may be prepared to stand down in a limited number of cases. For example in 2017 they did not contest Brighton Pavilion, held by Caroline Lucas of the Green Party (although I see from the Wikipedia article that there is a Lib Dem prospective parliamentary candidate for the seat now). It may be more a case of a "gentleman's agreement" not to run a strong campaign in non target seats, where the campaign will largely consist of the one free postal delivery leaflet (postal strikes permitting). I know that in recent general election campaigns attempts have been made to persuade activists in non target seats to devote their major efforts to nearby target seats, as an attempt to replicate by-election levels of activity in a limited number of constituencies. I am not sure what level of resources are going to be available to the Lib Dems in this election.

I would be surprised if the SNP would be willing not to contest any seats in Scotland. I suspect they would quite like to win every seat in Scotland, which would not be entirely impossible except perhaps for Orkney and Shetland.

I do not think any widespread electoral pacts are likely. There are four major or major minor GB wide parties, none of which particularly like or trust the others, plus the SNP which has a similar status in Scotland. The position is more like the recent Canadian federal elections where just about every riding had a candidate from just about all the competing parties.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on October 30, 2019, 03:33:17 am
Is there any discussion about electoral pacts, stand down agreements etc?

The Lib Dems are allegedly in talks with Plaid Cymru, the SNP, and Greens about selected stand downs in a handful of seats. The Tories have categorically ruled out any cooperation with the Brexit Party. I don't think the Brexit Party has responded in kind, but the inexorable logic of the situation is that they will attempt to stand a full slate of candidates.

Brilliant. Now the massive SNP and Plaid Cymru vote in London can be united behind the LibDems.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Helsinkian on October 30, 2019, 04:32:13 am
Ironically, Farage and the Brexit Party doing well are the remainers' best hope in this election.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: EastAnglianLefty on October 30, 2019, 04:52:20 am
In Northern Ireland, the UUP claim that they don't want any pacts with the DUP (which in fairness were not the greatest deals in the world for the former) potentially damaging Nigel Dodds in N Belfast, Emma Little Pengelly in S. Belfast and reducing chances of picking up Fermanagh and South Tyrone (one would hope that the DUP being completely craven bastards would also imperil them, but this is nothing new).

Other questions will be whether Collum Eastwood stands in Foyle, Naomi Long stands in W Belfast and whether Lady Hermon stands again in N Down.

I presume this is a typo for East Belfast - hard to see anything making West Belfast even vaguely interesting.

Interestingly for South Belfast, the SDLP candidate abandoned the party whip over their link-up with FF, whilst the Alliance candidate was formerly the UUP/Conservative candidate in 2010.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12, 2019
Post by: Serenity Now on October 30, 2019, 07:52:01 am
Something important to be aware of: once the campaign period begins, strict rules about broadcast media coverage for political parties are imposed. Note that most people get their news from the broadcast media and pay much more attention to the political items during an election campaign than the rest of the time. So this matters a lot.

Anyway, broadcast media coverage over the past few months has recently focused very, very heavily on the government and on the Conservative Party. Once the campaign rules kick in, just about everyone (Labour, the LibDems, the Brexit Party...) will get more airtime. This will have an effect. Exactly how much always varies, but it matters.

Or to put things more bluntly: it will not be possible for the government to run a 'people vs. parliament' (absurd concept, whatever) campaign, because the broadcast regulations will not allow for the coverage shares that might allow it.

Listening to the news breaks on popular radio stations (whether BBC or commercial) gives a useful impression of what information is reaching most voters.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on October 30, 2019, 08:06:32 am
Ironically, Farage and the Brexit Party doing well are the remainers' best hope in this election.

Just as the LibDems and Greens taking lots of previous Labour votes is the best hope for Brexiteers.

That's how it works.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 30, 2019, 08:15:16 am
Of course a lot of those voters in 2017 were not normal voters for either party: that was a very strange election in that all the smaller parties basically collapsed at the start of the campaign (the LibDem vote share only held up at all because the outward flow of solidly pro-EU voters from the Conservatives was so strong). A lot of the odder voting patterns that resulted have not shown up in subsequent rounds of local elections, with a couple of exceptions: General Elections are not applied local elections, but this is interesting. All of this is a major complicating factor for anyone trying to make predictions or projections.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 30, 2019, 09:22:49 am


Further proof that UKIP are a zombie party. Similarly, the Sinners had November leadership challenge that now would coincide with the campaign period, so it may get shelved.  


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: MillennialModerate on October 30, 2019, 09:38:54 am
Whoever made the decision to approve the election on Labour is absolutely crazy.

I mean this could approach 97’ or ‘01 in reverse.

Which would make 2024 a tall task, albeit more likely with Corbin gone.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: sopojarwo on October 30, 2019, 09:55:01 am
The rise of the ex-Revolutionary Communist Party member influence over Tory is one of the weirdest and least talked about aspects of recent events. Their election manifesto is being drawn up by a communist. Ironic when they accuse Corbyn of being an IRA sympathiser


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on October 30, 2019, 10:07:46 am
Labour had no choice but to go along with an election soon once Swinson in particular decided to support it for their own short-termist and narrow party political considerations.

But maybe some in the party think they can defy the odds again? Crazy thought, I know.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on October 30, 2019, 10:34:07 am
Labour had no choice but to go along with an election soon once Swinson in particular decided to support it for their own short-termist and narrow party political considerations.

But maybe some in the party think they can defy the odds again? Crazy thought, I know.

It would be actually crazy if the Tories weren't led by a carnival-barking ideological jellyfish who has chosen to stand with the most grotesque and unpopular wing of his party in an attempt to ram through a Brexit policy that a consistent majority of Britons really don't like.

I suppose Jezza thinks that a cogent and credible case against a Brexiteer government can be made and can beat the Tories. Of course he's right, but the question is whether this case will be made. Obviously it would be easier to have, say, Keir Starmer doing this rather than Corbyn's weird British Guevarrista-in-tweed cosplay. But at the end of the day it's easier to oppose than defend a sitting government, which is why Labour's silliness about Brexit probably matters less than people realize.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Ishan on October 30, 2019, 11:00:27 am

Further proof that UKIP are a zombie party. Similarly, the Sinners had November leadership challenge that now would coincide with the campaign period, so it may get shelved.  
I wonder when UKIP will dissolve.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: urutzizu on October 30, 2019, 12:16:08 pm

It would be actually crazy if the Tories weren't led by a carnival-barking ideological jellyfish who has chosen to stand with the most grotesque and unpopular wing of his party in an attempt to ram through a Brexit policy that a consistent majority of Britons really don't like.

The most recent polling on Boris Deal vs Remain that I could find.


Granted, it will be further scrutinized during the election but anything remotely close to that is enough for him. Added that he is polling a quite consistent ~15-20% of the 2016 Remain vote as well.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on October 30, 2019, 01:02:52 pm
If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.




Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 30, 2019, 01:22:47 pm
If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on October 30, 2019, 01:27:35 pm
If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.

If Remain wisn a 2nd referendum , Brexiters will have all the rights in the world to expect a third one.


In 2016 I was a Remainer(though not solidly just leaned towards it) , now I am a complete and total Brexiter  . So my rankings for the parties for this election would be


1. Tories
2. Brexit(In districts where they have a better chance of winning than the Tories)
3. Lib Dems
4. Labour


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 30, 2019, 01:30:16 pm
If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.

If Remain wisn a 2nd referendum , Brexiters will have all the rights in the world to expect a third one.


In 2016 I was a Remainer(though not solidly just leaned towards it) , now I am a complete and total Brexiter  . So my rankings for the parties for this election would be


1. Tories
2. Brexit(In districts where they have a better chance of winning than the Tories)
3. Lib Dems
4. Labour

In no way whatsoever is any of what you just said a logical response to what I said.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on October 30, 2019, 01:35:20 pm
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/76e74c38-fb22-11e9-98fd-4d6c20050229

Brexit party considers pulling out of hundreds of seats to boost Tories

Not sure this helps CON that much.  Lots of BXP voter are people that will never vote CON regardless of Brexit stance.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on October 30, 2019, 01:37:19 pm
If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.

If Remain wisn a 2nd referendum , Brexiters will have all the rights in the world to expect a third one.


In 2016 I was a Remainer(though not solidly just leaned towards it) , now I am a complete and total Brexiter  . So my rankings for the parties for this election would be


1. Tories
2. Brexit(In districts where they have a better chance of winning than the Tories)
3. Lib Dems
4. Labour

In no way whatsoever is any of what you just said a logical response to what I said.


What I am saying is Remainers did everything in their power to make sure the people's will was not followed so if they succeed in forcing an winning a second referendum , the Brexiters will be 100% justified in doing the same to force a third referendum.




Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 30, 2019, 01:41:48 pm
If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.

If Remain wisn a 2nd referendum , Brexiters will have all the rights in the world to expect a third one.


In 2016 I was a Remainer(though not solidly just leaned towards it) , now I am a complete and total Brexiter  . So my rankings for the parties for this election would be


1. Tories
2. Brexit(In districts where they have a better chance of winning than the Tories)
3. Lib Dems
4. Labour

In no way whatsoever is any of what you just said a logical response to what I said.


What I am saying is Remainers did everything in their power to make sure the people's will was not followed so if they succeed in forcing an winning a second referendum , the Brexiters will be 100% justified in doing the same to force a third referendum.

If this was the case, then a majority of the nearly 500 MP's who voted to trigger Article 50 wouldn't have done so.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on October 30, 2019, 01:43:11 pm
If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.

If Remain wisn a 2nd referendum , Brexiters will have all the rights in the world to expect a third one.


In 2016 I was a Remainer(though not solidly just leaned towards it) , now I am a complete and total Brexiter  . So my rankings for the parties for this election would be


1. Tories
2. Brexit(In districts where they have a better chance of winning than the Tories)
3. Lib Dems
4. Labour

In no way whatsoever is any of what you just said a logical response to what I said.


What I am saying is Remainers did everything in their power to make sure the people's will was not followed so if they succeed in forcing an winning a second referendum , the Brexiters will be 100% justified in doing the same to force a third referendum.

If this was the case, then a majority of the nearly 500 MP's who voted to trigger Article 50 wouldn't have done so.


They should have not obstructed May's deal, and obstructed her ability to make any good deal.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 30, 2019, 01:46:47 pm
If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.

If Remain wisn a 2nd referendum , Brexiters will have all the rights in the world to expect a third one.


In 2016 I was a Remainer(though not solidly just leaned towards it) , now I am a complete and total Brexiter  . So my rankings for the parties for this election would be


1. Tories
2. Brexit(In districts where they have a better chance of winning than the Tories)
3. Lib Dems
4. Labour

In no way whatsoever is any of what you just said a logical response to what I said.


What I am saying is Remainers did everything in their power to make sure the people's will was not followed so if they succeed in forcing an winning a second referendum , the Brexiters will be 100% justified in doing the same to force a third referendum.

If this was the case, then a majority of the nearly 500 MP's who voted to trigger Article 50 wouldn't have done so.


They should have not obstructed May's deal, and obstructed her ability to make any good deal.

You do realize that it was literally BoJo & the arch-Brexiteers who did exactly that, right?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on October 30, 2019, 02:15:21 pm
https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/group_b.6b9db4dc-d1df-4c9d-b9ab-c9a136a91f1e/uk-general-election-seats-markets

Sportingindex market medium

CON     324
LAB      206
SNP       49.5
LDEM     47.5
BXP         3.5

Which with SF not taking their seats gives CON a bare de facto majority


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 30, 2019, 03:24:14 pm
Nicky Morgan is retiring and will not stand in December. First off, her seat should still keep to it's history even in a Brexit focused election, voting near 50-50 between remain and leave. It's a rather unique seat in that regard since it's located in the Brexit-loving East/Northeast. However, fear of loss probably wasn't the motivator - she's a remainer, backed Gove for leadership, and was opposed to Boris's brexit maneuvers. People like her are no longer a natural fit for the Conservative party.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Krago on October 30, 2019, 03:52:25 pm
For those who want precise Westminster constituency boundaries, this is for you:

https://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/ (https://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/)


Also, a friend and I would like to travel to Britain for the last week of the campaign, and we have a couple of questions:

(a) How often do party leaders hold big rallies?  Is it easy to attend them?
(b) If we wanted to attend an election announcement early in the morning, how easy are those to go to?  Perhaps, Uxbridge and South Ruislip?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 30, 2019, 03:54:52 pm
(b) Election counts are nearly always in large sports centres. I don't think any of the locations have been announced for where they will be, but your best bet is to ask the relevant local council for more information.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Justice Blair on October 30, 2019, 06:28:36 pm
For those who want precise Westminster constituency boundaries, this is for you:

https://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/ (https://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/)


Also, a friend and I would like to travel to Britain for the last week of the campaign, and we have a couple of questions:

(a) How often do party leaders hold big rallies?  Is it easy to attend them?
(b) If we wanted to attend an election announcement early in the morning, how easy are those to go to?  Perhaps, Uxbridge and South Ruislip?

A.) Rare; Tories will be members only and Labour will be hard to track down; unless you’re happy tl go wherever the rally is in the UK.

B.) you need a pass to get into the actual counts iirc- esp for a PM one.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: morgieb on October 30, 2019, 06:29:38 pm
Nicky Morgan is retiring and will not stand in December. First off, her seat should still keep to it's history even in a Brexit focused election, voting near 50-50 between remain and leave. It's a rather unique seat in that regard since it's located in the Brexit-loving East/Northeast. However, fear of loss probably wasn't the motivator - she's a remainer, backed Gove for leadership, and was opposed to Boris's brexit maneuvers. People like her are no longer a natural fit for the Conservative party.
Worth remembering that Labour held that seat from 1955-1979 and 1997-2010. It's not a safe Tory seat.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on October 30, 2019, 06:36:09 pm
Morgan had a majority of 4,269 votes (7.9% in 2017), in 2017 she suffered a 5.3% swing against her. While she did well in 2015, she also had a relatively close majority (3,744 votes, 7.1%) in 2010. This seat seems like it could flip, though tbf it probably doesn't.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: MillennialModerate on October 30, 2019, 06:42:21 pm
I really hope Farage gets a seat this time. He’ll be tempted to run in a Labour Leave constituency but that’s not the right move. I think he’s got conviction, believes in his cause and unlike his friend Trump - isn’t a fraud

Well this didn’t age well.

If the reports are true that he’s even considering only running a handful of candidates in Labour Leave areas and that he himself may not even stand - That’s just pathetic. After all that to just fade away and give up on his cause? Embarrassing


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Tintrlvr on October 30, 2019, 06:43:48 pm
Nicky Morgan is retiring and will not stand in December. First off, her seat should still keep to it's history even in a Brexit focused election, voting near 50-50 between remain and leave. It's a rather unique seat in that regard since it's located in the Brexit-loving East/Northeast. However, fear of loss probably wasn't the motivator - she's a remainer, backed Gove for leadership, and was opposed to Boris's brexit maneuvers. People like her are no longer a natural fit for the Conservative party.
Worth remembering that Labour held that seat from 1955-1979 and 1997-2010. It's not a safe Tory seat.

Loughborough has voted for the winning party nationally at every election since February 1974. We'll see if it keeps that streak.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 30, 2019, 06:48:35 pm
Nicky Morgan is retiring and will not stand in December. First off, her seat should still keep to it's history even in a Brexit focused election, voting near 50-50 between remain and leave. It's a rather unique seat in that regard since it's located in the Brexit-loving East/Northeast. However, fear of loss probably wasn't the motivator - she's a remainer, backed Gove for leadership, and was opposed to Boris's brexit maneuvers. People like her are no longer a natural fit for the Conservative party.
Worth remembering that Labour held that seat from 1955-1979 and 1997-2010. It's not a safe Tory seat.

Loughborough has voted for the winning party nationally at every election since February 1974. We'll see if it keeps that streak.

Thats what I meant by History. If we get a old fashioned election,a brexit election, or something in between, Loughborough still will likely be a marginal.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections December 12?, 2019
Post by: cp on October 31, 2019, 04:57:01 am
I really hope Farage gets a seat this time. He’ll be tempted to run in a Labour Leave constituency but that’s not the right move. I think he’s got conviction, believes in his cause and unlike his friend Trump - isn’t a fraud

Well this didn’t age well.

If the reports are true that he’s even considering only running a handful of candidates in Labour Leave areas and that he himself may not even stand - That’s just pathetic. After all that to just fade away and give up on his cause? Embarrassing

If true, it's also tactically inept. Labour Leave seats are precisely the places where the Tories *don't* want the BXP to run. With BXP on the ballot (in, say, Hartlepool) they'll just repeat the results of 2015 (where Lab won that seat with a 35/30/20 split). For all the hype about Labour being wracked by division over Brexit, virtually every poll, interview, and study of Labour Leave areas has shown Labour Leavers are far more Labour - and hostile to the Tories - than they are Leavers, and the committed Leavers in Labour Leave seats are not typically Labour voters.

If it wasn't apparent already, it's worth adding there aren't really that many seats where the BXP will do more damage to the Tories than Labour in the first place. If the BXP really wanted to help the Tories they would simply fold, but I think Farage has a bit too much ego to contemplate that.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on October 31, 2019, 06:48:10 am
Not to mention that if the BxP only run a token number of candidates they will lose their right to PPBs and to participate in any debates that might be set up during the campaign.

Either run in most seats or not at all seem to be the only two credible options for them.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Mr. Illini on October 31, 2019, 07:47:20 am
If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.

If Remain wisn a 2nd referendum , Brexiters will have all the rights in the world to expect a third one.


In 2016 I was a Remainer(though not solidly just leaned towards it) , now I am a complete and total Brexiter  . So my rankings for the parties for this election would be


1. Tories
2. Brexit(In districts where they have a better chance of winning than the Tories)
3. Lib Dems
4. Labour

You know that Labour has maintained the position that they will follow the referendum result (albeit with a final deal put to the people) while Lib Dems have been full-on anti-Brexit, right?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Serenity Now on October 31, 2019, 08:21:02 am
Some of you will already be aware of the notoriously misleading bar charts which have sometimes been produced by the Lib Dems, but this really takes the cake (just read the small print).



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 31, 2019, 08:25:02 am
Some of you will already be aware of the notoriously misleading bar charts which have sometimes been produced by the Lib Dems, but this really takes the cake (just read the small print).



The only way JRM loses his seat is if the 600 reappointment goes into effect (it merges the two bath seats), or a different reappointment carves the city in two and has bath north/south rather than inner/outer. There are a good number of LDs in JRMs seat, but they will always be outgunned by the Tories without reinforcements from the city.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Serenity Now on October 31, 2019, 08:29:13 am
Some of you will already be aware of the notoriously misleading bar charts which have sometimes been produced by the Lib Dems, but this really takes the cake (just read the small print).



For the benefit of those who understandably can't read the tiny text:

Quote
Survation polled 405 respondents aged 18+ living in NE Somerset with the question: “Imagine that the result in your constituency was expected to be very close between the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidate, and none of the other parties were competitive. In this scenario, which party would you vote for?”

And the 2017 result, for reference:

Con 53.6%
Lab 34.7%
Lib Dem 8.3%
Grn 2.3%
Ind 1.1%


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 31, 2019, 08:42:53 am
We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on October 31, 2019, 10:14:01 am
We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

UKIP were averaging about the same as Brexit is now going into 2017. Greens too. What is curious is that the Tories ended about the same at the end as at the start and Labour cannibalised everyone including a chunk of UKIP voters.

Labour with its worst result since 1933, Tories doing better than 1987. Boris gets a thumping majority? It feels wrong. It doesn't sit right.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on October 31, 2019, 10:19:25 am
A reminder that Survation were the most accurate pollster in 2017 (that is not including YouGov's constituency based modelling that is separate from their normal polling) Would have been in 2015 as well, if they hadn't got cold feet.

Talking of YouGov, I see their latest manages to have Labour down 2 whilst the Tories and LibDems are unchanged. Hmmm.



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on October 31, 2019, 10:39:32 am
On the other hand Survation were the least accurate pollster in the European Elections with Ipsos-MORI and YouGov the most accurate.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on October 31, 2019, 11:15:34 am
If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.

If Remain wisn a 2nd referendum , Brexiters will have all the rights in the world to expect a third one.


In 2016 I was a Remainer(though not solidly just leaned towards it) , now I am a complete and total Brexiter  . So my rankings for the parties for this election would be


1. Tories
2. Brexit(In districts where they have a better chance of winning than the Tories)
3. Lib Dems
4. Labour

You know that Labour has maintained the position that they will follow the referendum result (albeit with a final deal put to the people) while Lib Dems have been full-on anti-Brexit, right?


I know but Jermey Corbyn cannot be PM under any circumstances.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on October 31, 2019, 11:23:11 am
On the other hand Survation were the least accurate pollster in the European Elections with Ipsos-MORI and YouGov the most accurate.

Well I suppose that "wrong for meaningless elections, accurate for the ones that matter" isn't such a bad claim :p

Hopefully one thing this coming election will do is dump all the extravagant claims made on the back of that joke exercise into the dustbin. Forever.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on October 31, 2019, 01:01:36 pm
What seats do you guys reckon Labour are likeliest to pick up even on a bad night? Putney? Hastings? Southampton Itchen?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: brucejoel99 on October 31, 2019, 01:04:32 pm
If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.

If Remain wisn a 2nd referendum , Brexiters will have all the rights in the world to expect a third one.


In 2016 I was a Remainer(though not solidly just leaned towards it) , now I am a complete and total Brexiter  . So my rankings for the parties for this election would be


1. Tories
2. Brexit(In districts where they have a better chance of winning than the Tories)
3. Lib Dems
4. Labour

You know that Labour has maintained the position that they will follow the referendum result (albeit with a final deal put to the people) while Lib Dems have been full-on anti-Brexit, right?


I know but Jermey Corbyn cannot be PM under any circumstances.

jErEmY cOrByN cAnNoT bE pM uNdEr AnY cIrCuMsTaNcEs


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on October 31, 2019, 01:07:02 pm
We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Note that the only significant difference between these two polls are the Labour and Green scores - which, in both, add up to exactly 27%. So if that pattern holds, it looks like it's a matter of how many votes the Greens will spoil for Labour.

(Of course, a lot more than that could change in a month and a half.)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on October 31, 2019, 01:14:04 pm
It's pretty much inevitable that FPP will produce many horrific distortions of the popular will in this election.

For example, if the Tory + Brexit vote is say 45%, but that vote is less split than the Remain vote then the Tories probably get a majority and the idiotic media will proclaim it as a mandate for a hard Brexit.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Lord Halifax on October 31, 2019, 01:33:46 pm
We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

Are there any methodological differences that can explain why the Green score varies so much?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on October 31, 2019, 01:43:11 pm
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-boris-johnson-corbyn-would-take-uk-to-bad-places-2019-10

"Trump backs 'fantastic' Boris Johnson and says Jeremy Corbyn would take UK to 'bad places'"

Trump says this to Nigel Farage and encouraged that Nigel Farage's BXP and Johnson's CON should join forces.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on October 31, 2019, 02:00:43 pm
We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

Are there any methodological differences that can explain why the Green score varies so much?

Because the Green Party is newer, less well established, and highly responsive to the media environment of the moment (i.e. if there are climate change issues in the news on any given week), their numbers tend to fluctuate. A similar phenomenon occurs in Canada: the Greens will poll at nearly double the rate they end up getting on election day, except for periods when non-environmentalist issues dominate the news.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: RGM2609 on October 31, 2019, 02:01:35 pm
How likely is it for the Greens to have 2 seats or more following this election?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on October 31, 2019, 02:03:04 pm
How likely is it for the Greens to have 2 seats or more following this election?

Highly unlikely.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 31, 2019, 02:10:30 pm
How likely is it for the Greens to have 2 seats or more following this election?

Highly unlikely.

If the greens get a deal with Libs, Lab, or  both to stand aside  in some of the areas their strong in, or be the de facto remain choice on the ballot then they could easily get as many seats where the above holds true. But barring that, it's an unlikely prospect.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: RGM2609 on October 31, 2019, 02:24:22 pm
Also if the Conservatives get a substantial majority (350-370) do you think they'll be able to hang on until 2023 or will UK have snap elections again?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on October 31, 2019, 02:47:20 pm
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-boris-johnson-corbyn-would-take-uk-to-bad-places-2019-10

"Trump backs 'fantastic' Boris Johnson and says Jeremy Corbyn would take UK to 'bad places'"

Trump says this to Nigel Farage and encouraged that Nigel Farage's BXP and Johnson's CON should join forces.

Corbyn should just surreptitiously bait Trump every day for the next seven weeks to comment on British elections. Labour will have 400 seats at this rate.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: MillennialModerate on October 31, 2019, 04:16:11 pm
Also if the Conservatives get a substantial majority (350-370) do you think they'll be able to hang on until 2023 or will UK have snap elections again?

2024 would be the date you’re thinking of (Canada and US do 4 years, UK does 5)

If they get a substantial majority and Labour is way behind in the polls then the Conservatives will likely take advantage of that around 2022, but no sooner then that.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 31, 2019, 04:34:55 pm
If the Conservatives get a substantial majority, they will almost certainly repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on October 31, 2019, 04:46:48 pm
If the Conservatives get a substantial majority, they will almost certainly repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.

Frankly, I think any govt should ammend the act when it comes back up for renewal. The last few months have shown that any govt that has sigifcantly lost it's majority and expired it's term has to be given the rights of burial and can't just be allowed to sit there and do nothing. The opposition shouldn't be able to Ted Cruz the whole thing if polling isn't great for them at that moment. Hell, I can imagine the situation could easily be reversed, where the govt controls more than enough to avoid the 2/3s rule, not every opposition wants to go to an election preventing a straight VONC, the govt doesn't want to go to the polls do to bad numbers, but said govt can't get enough votes to do anything in the commons.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on October 31, 2019, 04:54:02 pm
If the Conservatives get a substantial majority, they will almost certainly repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.

As explained before, they can repeal it but will have to replace it with something. Even if that is just a bill saying power to call an election should be solely the preserve of the sitting PM again.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 31, 2019, 05:22:44 pm
FTPA manages to be the worst of both worlds (there is a case for actual fixed terms and there is a case for the traditional Westminster approach, but this halfway house is appalling) and should certainly be replaced.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on October 31, 2019, 05:36:21 pm
Apparently Antoinette Sandbach (Ind, former Con; Eddisbury) has defected to the Lib Dems and will stand for re-election under that label. I'll be charitable and say she has 'no chance' rather than 'pffffttttt not a f!cking chance in hell'


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Cassius on October 31, 2019, 05:57:12 pm
Apparently Antoinette Sandbach (Ind, former Con; Eddisbury) has defected to the Lib Dems and will stand for re-election under that label. I'll be charitable and say she has 'no chance' rather than 'pffffttttt not a f!cking chance in hell'

Whilst it probably wasn’t an option for her given the timing of her defection, I’ll give props to her for re-contesting Eddisbury, as opposed to joining the other defecting poultry in the chicken run to London.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: AndyHogan14 on October 31, 2019, 10:22:09 pm
If there is a 2nd referendum and Remain wins 52-48 I wonder if the Remainers will say there should be another referendum on that because the vote was too close.

No Remainer has called for there to be another referendum on the basis that the last one was too close, & disingenuousness aside, I think you know that.

If Remain wisn a 2nd referendum , Brexiters will have all the rights in the world to expect a third one.


In 2016 I was a Remainer(though not solidly just leaned towards it) , now I am a complete and total Brexiter  . So my rankings for the parties for this election would be


1. Tories
2. Brexit(In districts where they have a better chance of winning than the Tories)
3. Lib Dems
4. Labour

You know that Labour has maintained the position that they will follow the referendum result (albeit with a final deal put to the people) while Lib Dems have been full-on anti-Brexit, right?


I know but Jermey Corbyn cannot be PM under any circumstances.

I know that Boris Johnson returning to No. 10 may very well lead to the dissolution of the United Kingdom so I would argue that Johnson should not remain as PM under any circumstances.

I am no fan of Jeremy Corbyn and I despise the SNP, but if I were a British voter, the integrity of the union should be the first priority. A hard Brexit (something that the public certainly did not vote for) would threaten the very existence of the United Kingdom—if we have to stomach Corbyn in No. 10 with the support of the SNP to remain or get a soft Brexit, then so be it. The union would then be (somewhat) safe. It's deliciously ironic that the SNP joining the government or giving confidence to a Labour-led government may very well end up preserving the union that they so foolishly hate.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Tintrlvr on October 31, 2019, 10:36:49 pm
How likely is it for the Greens to have 2 seats or more following this election?

Highly unlikely.

If the greens get a deal with Libs, Lab, or  both to stand aside  in some of the areas their strong in, or be the de facto remain choice on the ballot then they could easily get as many seats where the above holds true. But barring that, it's an unlikely prospect.

There are I believe zero seats that are Conservative-held where the Greens are in second place, though, so there's nowhere really where the Greens could really get a free run. Maybe the LDs will stand aside for them on the Isle of Wight, probably the Greens' best chance at a gain from the Conservatives, but they're still fighting from third place, and in a Leave seat.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Hnv1 on November 01, 2019, 02:41:07 am
If the Conservatives get a substantial majority, they will almost certainly repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.
good. It's foreign to the Westminster system and it's common law. And 2/3 of the house is a high bar, the house should be sovereign to dissolve with a simple majority


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Gary J on November 01, 2019, 03:15:37 am
Another part of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011, that needs further thought, is the provision about motions of no confidence. I would suggest adopting the idea that a motion of no confidence must specify the member of the House of Commons who would replace the existing Prime Minister if the motion is carried. I would also clarify who can move a motion of no confidence and when. It seems absurd that the government itself should control when it can be challenged and usually give time only to the votes moved by the Leader of the Opposition, even if some other member might have a reasonable chance of winning a majority.

I would also include a provision that certain votes, such as that in response to the Queen's speech or on the budget must be votes of no confidence, so they pass unless the House votes for another member to be named as Prime Minister.

The parties, interested members of the public and academic experts should probably be encouraged to gameplay the proposed rules before they are adopted into law to see if anyone can come up with unintended consequences or ways where the rules might break down in a time of crisis.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: tack50 on November 01, 2019, 03:57:35 am
How likely is it for the Greens to have 2 seats or more following this election?

Highly unlikely.

If the greens get a deal with Libs, Lab, or  both to stand aside  in some of the areas their strong in, or be the de facto remain choice on the ballot then they could easily get as many seats where the above holds true. But barring that, it's an unlikely prospect.

There are I believe zero seats that are Conservative-held where the Greens are in second place, though, so there's nowhere really where the Greens could really get a free run. Maybe the LDs will stand aside for them on the Isle of Wight, probably the Greens' best chance at a gain from the Conservatives, but they're still fighting from third place, and in a Leave seat.

Wouldn't Bristol West be a better target for the Greens?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Serenity Now on November 01, 2019, 05:41:58 am
How likely is it for the Greens to have 2 seats or more following this election?

Highly unlikely.

If the greens get a deal with Libs, Lab, or  both to stand aside  in some of the areas their strong in, or be the de facto remain choice on the ballot then they could easily get as many seats where the above holds true. But barring that, it's an unlikely prospect.

There are I believe zero seats that are Conservative-held where the Greens are in second place, though, so there's nowhere really where the Greens could really get a free run. Maybe the LDs will stand aside for them on the Isle of Wight, probably the Greens' best chance at a gain from the Conservatives, but they're still fighting from third place, and in a Leave seat.

Wouldn't Bristol West be a better target for the Greens?

It probably has the most *potential* for them outside of Brighton Pavilion given the 2015 result. Norwich South would also be a contender. However, their best bet would really need to be somewhere where parties other than the incumbent have some strength too. Back in 2010 this was the case in Brighton Pavilion but is not the case right now for either Bristol West or Norwich South.

When it comes to Bristol West I think that the 2015 result for Labour (35.7%) was probably their 'floor' and the 2017 result (65.9%) their 'ceiling' for now, so i don't see the seat changing hands even in what is likely to be one crazy-ass election nationally.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Tintrlvr on November 01, 2019, 07:42:26 am
How likely is it for the Greens to have 2 seats or more following this election?

Highly unlikely.

If the greens get a deal with Libs, Lab, or  both to stand aside  in some of the areas their strong in, or be the de facto remain choice on the ballot then they could easily get as many seats where the above holds true. But barring that, it's an unlikely prospect.

There are I believe zero seats that are Conservative-held where the Greens are in second place, though, so there's nowhere really where the Greens could really get a free run. Maybe the LDs will stand aside for them on the Isle of Wight, probably the Greens' best chance at a gain from the Conservatives, but they're still fighting from third place, and in a Leave seat.

Wouldn't Bristol West be a better target for the Greens?

Bristol West is held by Labour; Isle of Wight is their top target held by the Conservatives. Labour-held seats are very unlikely to be relevant to a ”Remain Alliance”, and in any event I have a tough time seeing the Greens peeling off a lot of votes from Corbyn Labour other than strategic votes.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Helsinkian on November 01, 2019, 07:43:42 am
Nigel Farage throwing a lifeline to the remainers by announcing that they are going to stand in all constituencies.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 01, 2019, 08:25:15 am
Nigel Farage throwing a lifeline to the remainers by announcing that they are going to stand in all constituencies.

They almost certainly won't do that, but this scotches the idea they were going to contest a few dozen Labour seats only (though that "rumour" emerged from Seb Payne, the biggest Tory shill at the FT, so was never reliable)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 01, 2019, 08:37:14 am
Nigel Farage throwing a lifeline to the remainers by announcing that they are going to stand in all constituencies.

Not 100% sure about that.  For sure BXP running everywhere will eat into CON Brexi votes but could also eat into LAB Brext voters that otherwise would never vote CON anyway.  The main problem with a de facto CON-BXP alliance is that it will trigger an even greater defection rate of CON Remain vote as well as trigger LAB-LDEM-Green tactical voting in response.

The most recent Yougov poll on a cross section of 2017 and 2016 vote is fairly instructive:

Voting intention among 2016 REMAIN voters
Lib Dem - 34%
Labour - 33%
Con - 16%
Green - 9%

Voting intention among 2016 LEAVE voters
Con - 58%
Brexit Party - 24%
Labour - 10%

LEAVE voters only
Voting intention among CON+LEAVE voters
Con - 77%
Brexit Party - 19%

Voting intention among LAB+LEAVE voters
Labour - 43%
Brexit Party - 25%
Con - 19%
()


REMAIN voters only
Voting intention among CON+REMAIN voters
Con - 61%
Lib Dem - 31%

Voting intention among LAB+REMAIN voters
Labour - 58%
Lib Dem - 27%
Green - 9%
()


There are almost no CON REMAIN vote that will defect to LAB and all such defection will go to LDEM.
The some LAB LEAVE vote will defect to CON but an even larger chunk will go to BXP.  That is the bloc of LAB LEAVE voters that will most likely never vote CON anyway and BXP running will keep those votes away from LAB.  Of course there is a bloc of CON LEAVE voters that will go to BXP but like in 2015 CON can hope for tactical voting.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on November 01, 2019, 08:48:51 am
We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

Are there any methodological differences that can explain why the Green score varies so much?

Maybe this explains the differences:



Edit:
    Worth noting about this poll:

    > Greens are not prompted.
    > 50% of the sample DO see the Brexit Party prompted, 50% do not. https://t.co/64ns9IQQSf
    — Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 31, 2019


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 01, 2019, 10:34:58 am
Here's some potential high profile incumbent shock defeats (note: not a prediction)

Conservative

Boris himself - Uxbridge isn't out of the realm of possibility and it isn't too dissimilar to middle-class seats that have swung away from Tories elsewhere.

Zac Goldsmith - tbh unless it's a dismal night for the Lib Dems, he's probably going down

Iain Duncan Smith - another London seat, and one Labour basically has to win to call it a remotely good night (and they could even win it on a pretty lousy score as well.

Jacob Rees Mogg - bit more remote, and could probably suffer from divided opposition given the old Labourist tradition around the Somerset coalfields and the Lib Dem renewed strength in the West Country. Still, Lib Dems won Bath and NE Somerset last locals, even excluding Bath constituency.

Steve Baker - another Hard Brexiter sitting in the not hugely Brexit friendly commuter town of Wycombe

Labour

Not sure how many likely Lab>Lib pick-ups there will be (it says something about how badly that faction of swing voters took the clegg years that there is only dead certain Lib Dem pick-up, and that's the seat of the soon to be missed Mr O'Mara). Maybe if Labour do catasrophically with Remain voters you could see them come back from the dead in places like Emily Thornberry's Islington and Finsbury seat.

Much more potential Labour weaknesses to Tories though, obviously: Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper, Sarah Champion, Dennis Skinner, Caroline Flint and so on. In the event of Boris getting the much vaunted 100 seat super majority expect all sorts of people up in the hinterlands of Leeds, Sheffield, Birmingham etc to fall.

Lib Dems

aside from the likes of Ummuna and Gyimah, who don't count, the only vulnerable Lib Dem MP is probably their own leader, given Scotland's unpredictability.

SNP

Likewise, the SNP are doing so well at the moment the only potential for a fall is probably their own Westminster leader, Ian Blackford, who the Lib Dems are definitely gunning for after his pretty gross campaign against Charles Kennedy (there's also the Western Islands, but Christ knows what goes on politically there). As the SNP drifts into becoming an urban party, I expect the Liberal tradition to reassert itself in the region.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 01, 2019, 10:46:12 am
Eh, I think you've maybe been reading too many newspapers. The Tories only managed to poll 26% in the Rotherham constituency (for example) in 2017, a number smaller than the Labour majority there and a full seventeen percentage points lower than their national score.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 01, 2019, 10:50:22 am
Regarding the Brexit Party presumably running everywhere it can: though the exact effects are hard to predict with much certainty (like every other detail of this election, actually), it certainly isn't good news for a Conservative strategy that aims to repeat what they tried last time. At least so long as the Brexit Party is able to maintain some sort of polling viability. People do need to remember that most people do not have firm partisan attachments these days, even if they have views and preferences...


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 01, 2019, 10:56:10 am
Eh, I think you've maybe been reading too many newspapers. The Tories only managed to poll 26% in the Rotherham constituency (for example) in 2017, a number smaller than the Labour majority there and a full seventeen percentage points lower than their national score.

yeah, but if it does happen I can bump that post without context and claim I'm a genius


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 01, 2019, 10:59:52 am
Lib Dems

aside from the likes of Ummuna and Gyimah, who don't count, the only vulnerable Lib Dem MP is probably their own leader, given Scotland's unpredictability.


Brake and Lloyd (if he counts) are definitely more likely to lose than Swinson. Probably Farron as well. I think people are overestimating how vulnerable she is.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 01, 2019, 11:31:53 am
Brake? Long-time Lib Dem MP who survived both 2015 and 2017 in an seat that only narrowly voted for Brexit who seems relatively untouched by scandal to my knowledge?

Fair enough about Farron though.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 01, 2019, 11:42:09 am
Here's some potential high profile incumbent shock defeats (note: not a prediction)

Conservative

Boris himself - Uxbridge isn't out of the realm of possibility and it isn't too dissimilar to middle-class seats that have swung away from Tories elsewhere.

Zac Goldsmith - tbh unless it's a dismal night for the Lib Dems, he's probably going down

Iain Duncan Smith - another London seat, and one Labour basically has to win to call it a remotely good night (and they could even win it on a pretty lousy score as well.

Jacob Rees Mogg - bit more remote, and could probably suffer from divided opposition given the old Labourist tradition around the Somerset coalfields and the Lib Dem renewed strength in the West Country. Still, Lib Dems won Bath and NE Somerset last locals, even excluding Bath constituency.

Steve Baker - another Hard Brexiter sitting in the not hugely Brexit friendly commuter town of Wycombe

Labour

Not sure how many likely Lab>Lib pick-ups there will be (it says something about how badly that faction of swing voters took the clegg years that there is only dead certain Lib Dem pick-up, and that's the seat of the soon to be missed Mr O'Mara). Maybe if Labour do catasrophically with Remain voters you could see them come back from the dead in places like Emily Thornberry's Islington and Finsbury seat.

Much more potential Labour weaknesses to Tories though, obviously: Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper, Sarah Champion, Dennis Skinner, Caroline Flint and so on. In the event of Boris getting the much vaunted 100 seat super majority expect all sorts of people up in the hinterlands of Leeds, Sheffield, Birmingham etc to fall.

Lib Dems

aside from the likes of Ummuna and Gyimah, who don't count, the only vulnerable Lib Dem MP is probably their own leader, given Scotland's unpredictability.

SNP

Likewise, the SNP are doing so well at the moment the only potential for a fall is probably their own Westminster leader, Ian Blackford, who the Lib Dems are definitely gunning for after his pretty gross campaign against Charles Kennedy (there's also the Western Islands, but Christ knows what goes on politically there). As the SNP drifts into becoming an urban party, I expect the Liberal tradition to reassert itself in the region.

I'd also add Dominic Raab to your list of potential big name Tory losers. His constituency, Esher & Walton, voted heavily for remain, the Lib Dems did really well in the local elections in May, and their candidate has managed to convince the central party to make E&W a target seat. It's more of a long shot than Uxbridge or IDS's seat, but if the Tories are having a bad night then it could be the evening's Portillo moment (assuming Johnson doesn't lose as well).


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 01, 2019, 11:48:21 am
Brake? Long-time Lib Dem MP who survived both 2015 and 2017 in an seat that only narrowly voted for Brexit who seems relatively untouched by scandal to my knowledge?

Fair enough about Farron though.

I'm not saying Brake is particularly vulnerable (he isn't), just that he's more likely to lose than Swinson.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Laki on November 01, 2019, 11:49:36 am
The only thing I hope is that we don't return to Blairism or that Lib Dems do well. Hopefully it's a SNP + Labour victory. Tories winning is okay to me as well.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 01, 2019, 01:53:20 pm
Here's some potential high profile incumbent shock defeats (note: not a prediction)

Conservative

Boris himself - Uxbridge isn't out of the realm of possibility and it isn't too dissimilar to middle-class seats that have swung away from Tories elsewhere.

Zac Goldsmith - tbh unless it's a dismal night for the Lib Dems, he's probably going down

Iain Duncan Smith - another London seat, and one Labour basically has to win to call it a remotely good night (and they could even win it on a pretty lousy score as well.

Jacob Rees Mogg - bit more remote, and could probably suffer from divided opposition given the old Labourist tradition around the Somerset coalfields and the Lib Dem renewed strength in the West Country. Still, Lib Dems won Bath and NE Somerset last locals, even excluding Bath constituency.

Steve Baker - another Hard Brexiter sitting in the not hugely Brexit friendly commuter town of Wycombe

Labour

Not sure how many likely Lab>Lib pick-ups there will be (it says something about how badly that faction of swing voters took the clegg years that there is only dead certain Lib Dem pick-up, and that's the seat of the soon to be missed Mr O'Mara). Maybe if Labour do catasrophically with Remain voters you could see them come back from the dead in places like Emily Thornberry's Islington and Finsbury seat.

Much more potential Labour weaknesses to Tories though, obviously: Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper, Sarah Champion, Dennis Skinner, Caroline Flint and so on. In the event of Boris getting the much vaunted 100 seat super majority expect all sorts of people up in the hinterlands of Leeds, Sheffield, Birmingham etc to fall.

Lib Dems

aside from the likes of Ummuna and Gyimah, who don't count, the only vulnerable Lib Dem MP is probably their own leader, given Scotland's unpredictability.

SNP

Likewise, the SNP are doing so well at the moment the only potential for a fall is probably their own Westminster leader, Ian Blackford, who the Lib Dems are definitely gunning for after his pretty gross campaign against Charles Kennedy (there's also the Western Islands, but Christ knows what goes on politically there). As the SNP drifts into becoming an urban party, I expect the Liberal tradition to reassert itself in the region.

I'd also add Dominic Raab to your list of potential big name Tory losers. His constituency, Esher & Walton, voted heavily for remain, the Lib Dems did really well in the local elections in May, and their candidate has managed to convince the central party to make E&W a target seat. It's more of a long shot than Uxbridge or IDS's seat, but if the Tories are having a bad night then it could be the evening's Portillo moment (assuming Johnson doesn't lose as well).

E&W definitely needs to be on the list. That entire slice of London from the city & Westminster to already LD Twickenham should be going Orange, and E&W is just a greater extension of the slice. Especially since all their Tory rebel flips are fleeing here to stand on the LD ticket. In fact, it reminds me a lot of the wealthy mansion strips in Houston and Dallas that now are represented by Dems.  I mean yeah, Raab has a large majority, but how the Lib Dems work is they either get ziltch or a reasonable percentage depending on if they are seriously targeting the seat. Their voter base is more white collar, more educated, and older then the electorate, so on average your LD voter is going to be more in tune with electoral information. If the LDs lack serious opportunity in a seat, their voters scatter to the big two depending on personal views. It's why they regularly underperform FPTP polls.

Now while many names on the list I could see losing their seats even on good night's for the party, Boris requires the Tories to have a known loss incoming. In part this is because he sits on a healthy leave base in addition to the Tory base, aplifying the headwinds. The main problem though will be inflexible remainers: this is London and this is Boris, so you know there will be a bunch of radicals who share the stage with him like Buckethead did with May. LDs will also want a good showing here to stick it to the Man, as it were.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 01, 2019, 02:05:46 pm
It would be amusing if Raab lost, but I would caution that he polled 59% two years ago. And for obvious reasons if one was still voting Conservative in 2017, one was not #fbpe. Of course as recently as 2005 the LibDems managed to poll a shade under 30% there (still not enough to come close: 16pts behind) which is, sure, an indicator of potential of a sort, but...


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 01, 2019, 02:09:41 pm
The only thing I hope is that we don't return to Blairism or that Lib Dems do well. Hopefully it's a SNP + Labour victory. Tories winning is okay to me as well.

That first sentence doesn't really fit together logically.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Tintrlvr on November 01, 2019, 02:14:02 pm
Lib Dems

aside from the likes of Ummuna and Gyimah, who don't count, the only vulnerable Lib Dem MP is probably their own leader, given Scotland's unpredictability.


Brake and Lloyd (if he counts) are definitely more likely to lose than Swinson. Probably Farron as well. I think people are overestimating how vulnerable she is.

Way overestimating. East Dumbartonshire one of the most strongly anti-independence areas in Scotland outside of the borders and the islands, and the SNP is not going to sop up Remain votes in the LD-held seats. Swinson is very safe.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 01, 2019, 02:27:43 pm
It would be amusing if Raab lost, but I would caution that he polled 59% two years ago. And for obvious reasons if one was still voting Conservative in 2017, one was not #fbpe. Of course as recently as 2005 the LibDems managed to poll a shade under 30% there (still not enough to come close: 16pts behind) which is, sure, an indicator of potential of a sort, but...

E&W has an odd profile in some ways. The Tories win by a clear margin, but not by the landslide margins you get in more rural seats (or northern Labour ones). The Lab/Lib totals are pretty even around 20% apiece, with some variation factored in due to national swings. This is because the constituency includes loads of leafy Surrey surburbs (McMansions, really) alongside small but dense pockets of social housing and new builds in places like Walton. Give it another 10 years and it'll be like the Essex London suburbs that used to be super conservative but are now full of 'young professionals' that can't stand the Tories.

A non-Tory win in E&W isn't exactly a long shot, but it requires two things to happen independently: Raab needs to get super cocky and not put any effort into campaigning, AND one of the parties (*ahem* Labour) needs to tactically throw its voters toward the other party.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Lord Halifax on November 01, 2019, 03:54:53 pm
We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

Are there any methodological differences that can explain why the Green score varies so much?

Maybe this explains the differences:



The tweet's gone. What did it say?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 01, 2019, 03:58:56 pm
Brake? Long-time Lib Dem MP who survived both 2015 and 2017 in an seat that only narrowly voted for Brexit who seems relatively untouched by scandal to my knowledge?

Fair enough about Farron though.

Dunno about Farron either - he has been working his constituency *hard* since the 2017 scare.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Tintrlvr on November 01, 2019, 04:02:44 pm
Brake? Long-time Lib Dem MP who survived both 2015 and 2017 in an seat that only narrowly voted for Brexit who seems relatively untouched by scandal to my knowledge?

Fair enough about Farron though.

Dunno about Farron either - he has been working his constituency *hard* since the 2017 scare.

The LDs also gained seats in the local council in 2019 and really have  stranglehold on local politics. I know that's not definitive, but South Lakeland is an odd one where the local council strength is strongly tied to Farron personally.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 01, 2019, 04:42:27 pm
FWIW, I expect Scottish Labour to hold onto a few seats even if they tank. The local by election in Thorniewood makes me think they will hold onto Coatbridge. Same with Midlothian and East Lothian. I think the Tories will also hold fairly firm in 6 or 7 seats. Stirling and Angus and Ochil are likely SNP pickups but the Grampian Tory gains in 2017 will either all fall fast or hold.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Justice Blair on November 01, 2019, 04:45:38 pm
Yes the importance of Scottish leave voters has been ignored; I’m sure I’m as guilty as most but there’s a trend to treat Scotland as one universal set of seats rather than the 4-5 different clusters you have


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Keep Calm and ... on November 01, 2019, 05:01:32 pm
We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

Are there any methodological differences that can explain why the Green score varies so much?

Maybe this explains the differences:



The tweet's gone. What did it say?

    Worth noting about this poll:

    > Greens are not prompted.
    > 50% of the sample DO see the Brexit Party prompted, 50% do not. https://t.co/64ns9IQQSf
    — Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 31, 2019


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 01, 2019, 06:15:08 pm
Workington which is in NE England Survation poll

CON  45(+3)
LAB   34(-17)
BXP   13 (new)
LDEM   3(-2)
Green.  2(new)

LDEM fall is a surprise
CON has never won this seat before


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Anomalocaris🌹 on November 01, 2019, 06:23:52 pm
Iain Duncan Smith - another London seat, and one Labour basically has to win to call it a remotely good night (and they could even win it on a pretty lousy score as well.

This is a very exciting one since his Labour opponent will become an instant national star (a real one, not just someone like Pidcock - who I like - who has a caché among Labour supporters but not a grand national profile) upon her victory.   


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 01, 2019, 06:31:21 pm
Workington which is in NE England Survation poll

CON  45(+3)
LAB   34(-17)
BXP   13 (new)
LDEM   3(-2)
Green.  2(new)

LDEM fall is a surprise
CON has never won this seat before

Not surprising. I ran a simple regional swing calculation yesterday, using some of the numbers from the Economst's poll tracker, which includes a tracker for geographic regions (actually somewhat accurate on account of volume). However, I applied weights for Brexit results. That entire part of the northwest was blue, except for the LD seat of course. And this is with a weighted swing calculation, something that is by nature, inaccurate. LDs are going to fall in any hard Brexit seat they don't currently hold.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 01, 2019, 06:33:37 pm
Workington which is in NE England Survation poll

CON  45(+3)
LAB   34(-17)
BXP   13 (new)
LDEM   3(-2)
Green.  2(new)

LDEM fall is a surprise
CON has never won this seat before

I've had a look at the internals. Put bluntly, they don't pass the smell test. Even ignoring some of those issues (we shouldn't) the starting sample size was small and by the time they reached the effective sample size, tiny.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 01, 2019, 06:43:08 pm
I note (wearily) that just as all those splendid recent constituency polls for the LibDems were commissioned by them, so this poll seems to have been to-order for an article in the Daily Mail. Survation's record as a nationwide pollster isn't bad, but they have had (and ever since they emerged) a bad habit of doing this sort of thing alongside...


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 01, 2019, 06:47:44 pm
LDs are going to fall in any hard Brexit seat they don't currently hold.

No they won't. If they end up polling anything like where they currently are in the national polls, they will see their percentages soar in pretty much every constituency that they do not presently hold (and will do so in most of those as well).


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 01, 2019, 06:58:59 pm
LDs are going to fall in any hard Brexit seat they don't currently hold.

No they won't. If they end up polling anything like where they currently are in the national polls, they will see their percentages soar in pretty much every constituency that they do not presently hold (and will do so in most of those as well).

I suspect their vote is going to correlate very well with their targets, as usual, but outside of that it's going to be mainly going up in remain and urban areas. Swinson is unambiguously campaigning as the remain candidate, everything else is a secondary clause you would use to withhold your vote from the LDs if you are a remainer - say tuition fees. So why would anyone who supports brexit cast a ballot for remain? Lets go back to the yougov polling posted on the last page - LD's are under 5% with leavers!


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 01, 2019, 07:05:26 pm
You are trying to Yanksplain to us how elections work in this country. OK.......


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 01, 2019, 07:07:32 pm
Workington which is in NE England Survation poll

CON  45(+3)
LAB   34(-17)
BXP   13 (new)
LDEM   3(-2)
Green.  2(new)

LDEM fall is a surprise
CON has never won this seat before

For what it is worth Electoral Calculus model which has CON at 363 seats overall has Workington at
 
CON   34.9 (-6.8  )
LAB    32.1 (-19.0)
BXP     16.1 (New)
LDM    11.8 (+9.1)
Green   2.7 (New)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: IceAgeComing on November 01, 2019, 08:00:51 pm
keep in mind the... spotty history of constituency polling in the UK.  Wasn't a whole lot done in the last election but in 2015 there were masses of the things to try and unpick an election somewhat similar to this one: a massive shift in the dynamics of the vote with the collapse of the Lib Dems and the rise of UKIP.  What those polls revealed was an apparently strong personal vote for incumbent Lib Dem MPs; the general voting intention had most Liberal seats falling while when they threw in candidate names the Lib Dems held a lot more of their seats.  This was the reason behind the very high Lib Dem projections in 2015: some people saying that even on 8% of the vote they'd hold onto 30 seats because of this personal vote.

What happened?  The outcomes were closest to the general voting intention questions in those seats; the vast majority of Lib Dem MPs lost their seats and they ended up with 8.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: SunSt0rm on November 01, 2019, 08:04:28 pm
Workington which is in NE England Survation poll

CON  45(+3)
LAB   34(-17)
BXP   13 (new)
LDEM   3(-2)
Green.  2(new)

LDEM fall is a surprise
CON has never won this seat before
I think people are underestimating the number of Labours to the Brexit Party. I heard many Labour Leave voters are seeing a vote for the Tories are step too far, but voting for the Brexit Party is easier for them. Many people are assuming too fast that the Brexit Party is a threat to only the Conservatives, while I think its also a big threat as for Labour as well in these Leave Labour seats


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Justice Blair on November 01, 2019, 08:54:29 pm
There are no such thing as Brexit or Remain seats!

A Labour- Tory marginal seat in the Midlands that voted 52-48 leave is still a million times different to a 52-48 leave voting Lib-Tory marginal in the South West. Equally a 24 year old single mum who voted leave in the first seat is a lot different to a 57 year old professional who voted leave in the second seat.

We’re talking about groups respectively of 17 and 16 million people; and any voter between the age of 18-21 couldn’t vote in 2016 by my maths.

We know seats that ‘voted leave’ can still easily vote for the Lib Dem’s- we already have examples of this when the Lib Dem’s won before- Carshalton, Westmoreland, Brecon and Radnorshire and Eastbourne to give four.

The Lib Dem’s even now are not just a stop Brexit Party; they’re actually a cash rich, Uber local, and activist led party with a strong local base. They have a history of winning seats they shouldn’t by getting local people to run on bin collections who win as a council, then run the council, then win the seat etc. They also have regions of historic strength that did well for them at the local elections.



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on November 02, 2019, 02:30:22 am
Yes the importance of Scottish leave voters has been ignored; I’m sure I’m as guilty as most but there’s a trend to treat Scotland as one universal set of seats rather than the 4-5 different clusters you have

Any Scottish leave voter is simply an SNP voter. There is virtually zero leave-unionist piece of the electoral pie big enough to swing a seat.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 02, 2019, 04:04:22 am
Workington which is in NE England Survation poll

CON  45(+3)
LAB   34(-17)
BXP   13 (new)
LDEM   3(-2)
Green.  2(new)

LDEM fall is a surprise
CON has never won this seat before
I think people are underestimating the number of Labours to the Brexit Party. I heard many Labour Leave voters are seeing a vote for the Tories are step too far, but voting for the Brexit Party is easier for them. Many people are assuming too fast that the Brexit Party is a threat to only the Conservatives, while I think its also a big threat as for Labour as well in these Leave Labour seats

If people are underestimating Lab>Bxp voters, there's good reason for it. Study after study looking into these voters has shown they are far more motivated by non-Brexit issues (NHS, education, income inequality, etc.) than Brexit itself. It's not that Brexit isn't a factor, it's just that if asked to choose between a single issue party and their longstanding political leanings, they opt for their longstanding political leanings.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: politicallefty on November 02, 2019, 04:39:40 am
One of the things that concerns me most is that this is Boris Johnson's Conservative Party, not Theresa May's. In 2017, a lot of heavy Remain seats (particularly in London) swung hard to Labour. However, looking at the maps, Labour still holds a lot of Leave seats. Over 400 constituencies voted Leave in 2016. With the Tories running as a far more Brexit-centric than under May, that's sure to lead to some significant divergence from past elections.

With the Lib Dems running as the unabashed Remain party, is there any chance they could make inroads into heavy remain Labour areas like London?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 02, 2019, 04:52:23 am
One of the things that concerns me most is that this is Boris Johnson's Conservative Party, not Theresa May's. In 2017, a lot of heavy Remain seats (particularly in London) swung hard to Labour. However, looking at the maps, Labour still holds a lot of Leave seats. Over 400 constituencies voted Leave in 2016. With the Tories running as a far more Brexit-centric than under May, that's sure to lead to some significant divergence from past elections.

With the Lib Dems running as the unabashed Remain party, is there any chance they could make inroads into heavy remain Labour areas like London?

Inroads, maybe, but not a breakthrough. Keep in mind, London Labour's support is deep, their electoral machine is superb, and they've got candidates who are pretty well aligned to their constituents' priorities (Katy Hoey aside). It's also worth remembering Sadiq Khan is running for reelection in 6 months, so there's a well trained and primed activist base across the city prepared to turn its attention to a GE.

On the broader point of how Johnson will fare vis a vis 2017: Thanks to Brexit, precisely no one believes Johnson, and the party beneath him, is appreciably more liberal than May. The Tories will struggle to hold scores of seats in the SE and SW, not so much due to vote switching but because a sizeable portion of their core vote will just stay home in protest. On the other side, with the Brexit Party lining up to run virtually everywhere, the Tories will struggle to pick up the votes they need to win Leave heavy Labour seats in the midlands and north. If the Brexit Party rises high enough (anything above 15% or so) the Tories will also struggle to hold marginal seats everywhere.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 02, 2019, 05:09:58 am
I wouldn't be surprised if the overall result is pretty much the same as 2017.... or indeed the situation as this Parliament comes to an end. More deadlock.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: politicallefty on November 02, 2019, 05:45:33 am
On the broader point of how Johnson will fare vis a vis 2017: Thanks to Brexit, precisely no one believes Johnson, and the party beneath him, is appreciably more liberal than May. The Tories will struggle to hold scores of seats in the SE and SW, not so much due to vote switching but because a sizeable portion of their core vote will just stay home in protest. On the other side, with the Brexit Party lining up to run virtually everywhere, the Tories will struggle to pick up the votes they need to win Leave heavy Labour seats in the midlands and north. If the Brexit Party rises high enough (anything above 15% or so) the Tories will also struggle to hold marginal seats everywhere.

All good points. If we're looking at a strong Brexit Party, we should instead be looking more to the 2015 election. However, that doesn't work due to the complete decimation of the Lib Dems and the SNP at their virtual maximum seat count. Am I the only thinking this election is going to be very difficult to figure out until the votes are actually counted? And of course, as Theresa May found out the hard way, campaigns do actually matter. I'd feel a lot better about Labour if it wasn't Corbyn leading the party. His approvals are astronomically bad right now when they were roughly net neutral in 2017.

I wouldn't be surprised if the overall result is pretty much the same as 2017.... or indeed the situation as this Parliament comes to an end. More deadlock.

I've been thinking the same actually. It was only a marginal difference from 2015 though. Would the Tory Majority from 2015 realistically have been able to pass anything (under either May or Johnson)? It seems unlikely to me.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: tack50 on November 02, 2019, 06:10:16 am
One of the things that concerns me most is that this is Boris Johnson's Conservative Party, not Theresa May's. In 2017, a lot of heavy Remain seats (particularly in London) swung hard to Labour. However, looking at the maps, Labour still holds a lot of Leave seats. Over 400 constituencies voted Leave in 2016. With the Tories running as a far more Brexit-centric than under May, that's sure to lead to some significant divergence from past elections.

With the Lib Dems running as the unabashed Remain party, is there any chance they could make inroads into heavy remain Labour areas like London?

Inroads, maybe, but not a breakthrough. Keep in mind, London Labour's support is deep, their electoral machine is superb, and they've got candidates who are pretty well aligned to their constituents' priorities (Katy Hoey aside). It's also worth remembering Sadiq Khan is running for reelection in 6 months, so there's a well trained and primed activist base across the city prepared to turn its attention to a GE.

On that note, is the London mayor race anything other than safe Labour? I definitely can't see the Tories winning it, and the even the Lib Dems seems like a stretch.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 02, 2019, 06:15:42 am
Workington which is in NE England Survation poll

CON  45(+3)
LAB   34(-17)
BXP   13 (new)
LDEM   3(-2)
Green.  2(new)

LDEM fall is a surprise
CON has never won this seat before

Conservatives have won the seat once -- in a 1976 by-election


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 02, 2019, 06:53:45 am
One of the things that concerns me most is that this is Boris Johnson's Conservative Party, not Theresa May's. In 2017, a lot of heavy Remain seats (particularly in London) swung hard to Labour. However, looking at the maps, Labour still holds a lot of Leave seats. Over 400 constituencies voted Leave in 2016. With the Tories running as a far more Brexit-centric than under May, that's sure to lead to some significant divergence from past elections.

With the Lib Dems running as the unabashed Remain party, is there any chance they could make inroads into heavy remain Labour areas like London?

Inroads, maybe, but not a breakthrough. Keep in mind, London Labour's support is deep, their electoral machine is superb, and they've got candidates who are pretty well aligned to their constituents' priorities (Katy Hoey aside). It's also worth remembering Sadiq Khan is running for reelection in 6 months, so there's a well trained and primed activist base across the city prepared to turn its attention to a GE.

On that note, is the London mayor race anything other than safe Labour? I definitely can't see the Tories winning it, and the even the Lib Dems seems like a stretch.

Haven't seen any polling in a while but my take is that Khan will be reelected comfortably. The only news of note lately is Rory Stewart - a centrist Tory from Cumbria and the Beto O'Rourke of the last leadership election - inexplicably threw his hat into the ring as an independent.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 02, 2019, 06:56:36 am
There are no such thing as Brexit or Remain seats!

A Labour- Tory marginal seat in the Midlands that voted 52-48 leave is still a million times different to a 52-48 leave voting Lib-Tory marginal in the South West. Equally a 24 year old single mum who voted leave in the first seat is a lot different to a 57 year old professional who voted leave in the second seat.

We’re talking about groups respectively of 17 and 16 million people; and any voter between the age of 18-21 couldn’t vote in 2016 by my maths.

We know seats that ‘voted leave’ can still easily vote for the Lib Dem’s- we already have examples of this when the Lib Dem’s won before- Carshalton, Westmoreland, Brecon and Radnorshire and Eastbourne to give four.

The Lib Dem’s even now are not just a stop Brexit Party; they’re actually a cash rich, Uber local, and activist led party with a strong local base. They have a history of winning seats they shouldn’t by getting local people to run on bin collections who win as a council, then run the council, then win the seat etc. They also have regions of historic strength that did well for them at the local elections.



Fairly sure Westmorland & Lonsdale voted Remain.

But otherwise yes, I mostly agree with this. Remain-Leave is going to be a divide in this election (and people who claim that its not going to be important and other issues will take over are kidding themselves) but it will be far from the only issue and the ones that have ruled British politics for decades are not going to magically disappear.

And by the way, even if it was, you guys understand there are Remain voters even in Leave seats right? So even if the Lib Dems were only improving among Remainers, their vote share would still go up in Brexity seats if it goes up nationwide by the amount currently predicted.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: IceAgeComing on November 02, 2019, 09:00:09 am
Yes the importance of Scottish leave voters has been ignored; I’m sure I’m as guilty as most but there’s a trend to treat Scotland as one universal set of seats rather than the 4-5 different clusters you have

Any Scottish leave voter is simply an SNP voter. There is virtually zero leave-unionist piece of the electoral pie big enough to swing a seat.

errr, this is very wrong.  The chunk of the Scottish population that voted leave is probably likely to vote Tory more than the national average; the trends in the 2017 election in the North East indicates that: although some of that might just be areas of natural Tory strength returning home after spending 30 years with the SNP.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: rob in cal on November 02, 2019, 11:45:56 am
  Do wwe have any polling evidence of what the 2nd choice of Brexit Party voters would be?  For that matter the 2nd choice of other party voters as well?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Helsinkian on November 02, 2019, 11:48:31 am
Any Scottish leave voter is simply an SNP voter.

Brexit Party got 15% of the Scottish vote in the European Parliament election.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 02, 2019, 12:04:50 pm
Nigel Farage throwing a lifeline to the remainers by announcing that they are going to stand in all constituencies.

Not 100% sure about that.  For sure BXP running everywhere will eat into CON Brexi votes but could also eat into LAB Brext voters that otherwise would never vote CON anyway.  The main problem with a de facto CON-BXP alliance is that it will trigger an even greater defection rate of CON Remain vote as well as trigger LAB-LDEM-Green tactical voting in response.

The most recent Yougov poll on a cross section of 2017 and 2016 vote is fairly instructive:

Voting intention among 2016 REMAIN voters
Lib Dem - 34%
Labour - 33%
Con - 16%
Green - 9%

Voting intention among 2016 LEAVE voters
Con - 58%
Brexit Party - 24%
Labour - 10%

LEAVE voters only
Voting intention among CON+LEAVE voters
Con - 77%
Brexit Party - 19%

Voting intention among LAB+LEAVE voters
Labour - 43%
Brexit Party - 25%
Con - 19%
()


REMAIN voters only
Voting intention among CON+REMAIN voters
Con - 61%
Lib Dem - 31%

Voting intention among LAB+REMAIN voters
Labour - 58%
Lib Dem - 27%
Green - 9%
()


There are almost no CON REMAIN vote that will defect to LAB and all such defection will go to LDEM.
The some LAB LEAVE vote will defect to CON but an even larger chunk will go to BXP.  That is the bloc of LAB LEAVE voters that will most likely never vote CON anyway and BXP running will keep those votes away from LAB.  Of course there is a bloc of CON LEAVE voters that will go to BXP but like in 2015 CON can hope for tactical voting.

Even if we are to take the Yougov estimates as given, it's hard to see how the Brexit Party focusing on "Labour heartland" seats benefits them. Let's do a little exercise. Assume that all Tory voters and UKIP voters in 2017 backed Leave (dubious and favorable to Labour but more close to being accurate than not in "Labour heartland" seats), that all LibDem/Green voters backed Remain, and use this to estimate the Remain/Leave share of the Labour vote. We can then applying these vote share estimates. I simply add the old LibDem and UKIP vote shares to the YouGov-based vote transfers for LAB/COn.

Doing this in Redcar (~68% Leave):
Labour - 55.5% -> Labour Leave 30%, Labour Remain 25.6%
Conservative - 33.2% -> Tory Leave 33.2%
LibDem - 6.7%
UKIP - 4.6%

Vote Estimates with Brexit Party (no tactical squeeze, just YouGov):
Conservative 31.2%
Labour 27.7%
Brexit 18.3%
LibDem 13.6%

However, let's assume a tactical "squeeze" among Labour remain voters, giving Labour ~90% of these voters but no tactical squeeze to benefit Tories because Brexit resources ensure voter confusion:
Labour 35.9%
Conservative 31.2%
Brexit 18.4%
LibDem 8%

Now, all of this is very "problematic", resting on a bunch of absurd assumptions but the idea is to illustrate the problem of the Brexit Party strategy. Even in Leave-heavy Labour heartland seats, something like ~40% of Labour 2017 voters backed remain - vast majority will back Labour again, even if they are annoyed, because they'll be squeezed. However, intervention of Brexit Party makes the same "squeeze" strategy for the Tories difficult - it'll be unclear which party is best positioned to win.

Let's assume that there is an accidental squeeze to Brexit that's more concentrated among Labour leave voters than Tory voters (we give 35% among Labour Leavers, reducing Tory share to 9% with this group and 25% among Tory leavers and 75% to Tories), holding all else constant:
Labour 35.9%
Conservative 27.6%
Brexit 23.3%
LibDem 8%

Such an accidental squeeze is possible (perhaps likely and seeing as it as a squeeze may be a mistake when one remembers how many "Tory Leave" types in Redcar or Rother Valley are just UKIPers who loaned their vote to the Tories last time!) in many of these seas and notice what it does - it produces a much larger Labour majority! Perversely, insofar as Brexit Party wants to coordinate with the Tories, its best strategy might be to abolish itself. Insofar as it wants to be independent and does not care about the Tories, it should probably target as many marginal Labour/Tory seats, as "Labour heartland" seats!


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: RGM2609 on November 02, 2019, 12:31:43 pm
How many seats is the Brexit Party likely to win?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: vileplume on November 02, 2019, 12:35:25 pm
There are no such thing as Brexit or Remain seats!

A Labour- Tory marginal seat in the Midlands that voted 52-48 leave is still a million times different to a 52-48 leave voting Lib-Tory marginal in the South West. Equally a 24 year old single mum who voted leave in the first seat is a lot different to a 57 year old professional who voted leave in the second seat.

We’re talking about groups respectively of 17 and 16 million people; and any voter between the age of 18-21 couldn’t vote in 2016 by my maths.

We know seats that ‘voted leave’ can still easily vote for the Lib Dem’s- we already have examples of this when the Lib Dem’s won before- Carshalton, Westmoreland, Brecon and Radnorshire and Eastbourne to give four.

The Lib Dem’s even now are not just a stop Brexit Party; they’re actually a cash rich, Uber local, and activist led party with a strong local base. They have a history of winning seats they shouldn’t by getting local people to run on bin collections who win as a council, then run the council, then win the seat etc. They also have regions of historic strength that did well for them at the local elections.



Fairly sure Westmorland & Lonsdale voted Remain.

But otherwise yes, I mostly agree with this. Remain-Leave is going to be a divide in this election (and people who claim that its not going to be important and other issues will take over are kidding themselves) but it will be far from the only issue and the ones that have ruled British politics for decades are not going to magically disappear.

And by the way, even if it was, you guys understand there are Remain voters even in Leave seats right? So even if the Lib Dems were only improving among Remainers, their vote share would still go up in Brexity seats if it goes up nationwide by the amount currently predicted.

Well in a seat like North Norfolk the Lib Dem share in 2017 is extremely artificially high. If Lamb had stepped down in 2015 the Tories would've won it easily and it would've had a further swing towards them in 2017 to the extent that it would now look like a safe Tory seat with the Lib Dems a long way behind. Thus given the nature of this election I reckon North Norfolk is a likely Tory gain.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 02, 2019, 12:44:01 pm
How many seats is the Brexit Party likely to win?

One or two at most.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 02, 2019, 01:03:39 pm
How many seats is the Brexit Party likely to win?

They aren't "likely" to win any, and have non-negligible chances in maybe half a dozen.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: vileplume on November 02, 2019, 02:08:16 pm

Fairly sure Westmorland & Lonsdale voted Remain.


Comfortably at that. South Lakeland council (of which Westmoreland and Lonsdale is the vast majority) was 53% Remain. On top of that the bit of South Lakeland not in the Westmoreland and Lonsdale constituency, principally the town of Ulverston, would've been solidly Leave. This would mean the Remain vote in Westmoreland and Lonsdale was approximately 54%-55%.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 02, 2019, 02:22:44 pm
More polls, and I'm sure they will bring clarit... oh...

Opinium: Con 42, Lab 26, LDem 16, Brexit 9, SNP 4, Greens 2, Others 2
ORB: Con 36, Lab 28, LDem 14, Brexit 12 (no further details)

Also, there was a Panelbase yesterday - was it reported here? Can't recall. If not...

Panelbase: Con 40, Lab 29, LDem 14, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 02, 2019, 03:36:50 pm
More polls, and I'm sure they will bring clarit... oh...

Opinium: Con 42, Lab 26, LDem 16, Brexit 9, SNP 4, Greens 2, Others 2
ORB: Con 36, Lab 28, LDem 14, Brexit 12 (no further details)

Also, there was a Panelbase yesterday - was it reported here? Can't recall. If not...

Panelbase: Con 40, Lab 29, LDem 14, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

It's giving some indication that the Tories are polling back at 2010-2017 levels which has given us two hung parliaments and one slender majority. In some polls they are drifting back to their 2017-early 2019 average. Labour are obviously not and Brexit are clearly still a presence even with the Tory drift upwards. The Lib Dems seem to be slipping back down to the mid teens which is not great going into the two party echo chamber.



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 02, 2019, 03:49:19 pm
The Lib Dems seem to be slipping back down to the mid teens

This was always going to happen. I knew not to underestimate the probability of the "Corbyn may be an incompetent foolish Hard-Brexiteering fool with no real solutions apart from regressive 70s socialism and who is at best apathetic about antisemitism BUT I DON'T WANT TO LET THE TORIES IN" voters going back to the fold quickly and polling seems to show that has happened. However, the Lib Dems will still make significant gains at 16-19% of the vote (that's basically triple what they got last time) and the real (and achievable) goal is to maintain that level into the election.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 02, 2019, 04:26:59 pm
It's important for everyone to be aware that, per some unfathomable tradition, polling firms in the UK do not report toplines with undecided voters, as they do in the US. This creates the impression of the Tories having a substantial lead when, in fact, they do not.

As an example, on October 25th, Opinium released a poll showing: Con 40%, Labour 24%, LibDem 15%, Brexit 10%. With "Don't Knows" included, we have: Con 31%, Labour 21%, Don't Know 16% LibDem 12%, Brexit 9%.

Here are the share of "Don't Knows" by 2017/2016 voting history:
Conservative Remainers - Don't Know 22%
Conservative Leavers - Don't Know 9%
Labour Remainers - Don't Know 14%
Labour Leavers - Don't Know 18%

Backing this out, the Don't Knows in this opinion poll voted the following way in 2017 and 2016:
EU Party Referendum Groups - Labour Remain 32%, Conservative Remain 25%, Conservative Leave 24%, Labour Leave 19%
2017 GE - Labour 49%, Conservative 43%, LibDem 4%
2016 EU Referendum - Remain 53%, Leave 47% (Remain 42%, Leave 38%, Didn't Vote 19%)
Remain voters by party - Labour 53%, Conservative 41%
Leave voters by party - Conservative 53%, Labour 43%

Here's what the "Don't Knows" think about the leaders:
Preferred Prime Minister - None/Don't Know 65%, Boris Johnson 31%, Corbyn 3%,
Boris Johnson (excluding people without a view) - Disapprove 61%, Approve 39%
Jeremy Corbyn - Approve 25%, Disapprove 75%
Jo Swinson - Approve 42%, Disapprove 58%

Is performing this sort of analysis on the disgusting entrails of a polling sausage a bit misguided? Sure but I hope it's a reminder of certain facts: polls can whiff in dramatic ways when "undecided" voters are left unreported, there are many undecided voters and those undecided voters have a clear lean. If I had to guess, the undecided voters will gravitate towards Labour/LibDems throughout the campaign.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Vosem on November 02, 2019, 04:39:50 pm
There doesn't seem to be any reason to think that constituency polling will be any better than it was in 2015, is there? I followed it quite closely that time and was badly burned.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 02, 2019, 04:42:00 pm
There doesn't seem to be any reason to think that constituency polling will be any better than it was in 2015, is there? I followed it quite closely that time and was badly burned.

Constituency polling is always terrible and nobody should be taking it seriously. Unfortunately, people will but that's par for the course.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: rob in cal on November 02, 2019, 05:02:44 pm
  US house race polling seemed to be pretty good last few cycles, maybe UK pollsters could learn from accross the Atlantic.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Justice Blair on November 02, 2019, 05:15:47 pm
The polls with low labour levels have had a stupidly high Green vote (at 5-7%) and a high Lib Dem vote.

  US house race polling seemed to be pretty good last few cycles, maybe UK pollsters could learn from accross the Atlantic.

I don’t think it’s that easy...


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 02, 2019, 05:34:52 pm
The polls with low labour levels have had a stupidly high Green vote (at 5-7%) and a high Lib Dem vote.

 US house race polling seemed to be pretty good last few cycles, maybe UK pollsters could learn from accross the Atlantic.

I don’t think it’s that easy...

Well, one has to hope that if you are exerting the effort to get a representative poll with a respectable sample from a small population, you are also willing to exert the effort so that your data can stand scrutiny. That's arguably why the nyt had their polls run live rather than be conducted all in-house and secret.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Helsinkian on November 02, 2019, 05:39:56 pm
It's important for everyone to be aware that, per some unfathomable tradition, polling firms in the UK do not report toplines with undecided voters, as they do in the US.

Because "Don't know" is not an option on the ballot paper on election day.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Vosem on November 02, 2019, 05:47:11 pm
US House seats are like 10 times the size (typical population of like 700,000 people) of a UK Parliament constituency (typical population of like 70,000 people). They are correspondingly much easier to poll.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 02, 2019, 06:44:51 pm
It's important for everyone to be aware that, per some unfathomable tradition, polling firms in the UK do not report toplines with undecided voters, as they do in the US.

Because "Don't know" is not an option on the ballot paper on election day.

Neither is "undecided" but it's typical for American pollsters to report this information because it gives a sense of the actual size of a lead. We all should have known that Hillary Clinton's lead was tenuous in 2016 because there are more undecideds and third party voters than usual. If you simply removed undecideds, she would have had an even larger lead in polls!


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Kyng on November 02, 2019, 07:29:48 pm
The Lib Dems seem to be slipping back down to the mid teens

This was always going to happen. I knew not to underestimate the probability of the "Corbyn may be an incompetent foolish Hard-Brexiteering fool with no real solutions apart from regressive 70s socialism and who is at best apathetic about antisemitism BUT I DON'T WANT TO LET THE TORIES IN" voters going back to the fold quickly and polling seems to show that has happened. However, the Lib Dems will still make significant gains at 16-19% of the vote (that's basically triple what they got last time) and the real (and achievable) goal is to maintain that level into the election.

Yeah, it's depressing, but not in the least bit surprising. I guess that's what happens when you have a broken political system that strongly encourages two major parties, at the expense of everybody else.

Like in 2017, I'm probably going to end up voting Lib Dem, not because I like them very much (I don't really like any of the main parties), but because I hate two-party politics more than I hate any specific one of those parties.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 02, 2019, 07:47:08 pm
More polls, and I'm sure they will bring clarit... oh...

Opinium: Con 42, Lab 26, LDem 16, Brexit 9, SNP 4, Greens 2, Others 2
ORB: Con 36, Lab 28, LDem 14, Brexit 12 (no further details)

Also, there was a Panelbase yesterday - was it reported here? Can't recall. If not...

Panelbase: Con 40, Lab 29, LDem 14, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

There's more, because, you know, the Sunday papers...

Deltapoll: Con 40, Lab 28, LDem 14, BP 11, SNP 3, Greens 2, Others 2
YouGov: Con 39, Lab 27, LDem 16, BP 7, Others ?
ComRes: Con 36, Lab 28, LDem 17, BP 10, SNP 4, Greens 3, Others 1


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 02, 2019, 11:35:18 pm
  US house race polling seemed to be pretty good last few cycles, maybe UK pollsters could learn from accross the Atlantic.

It's easier to poll 2 way races.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 03, 2019, 04:44:46 am
More polls, and I'm sure they will bring clarit... oh...

Opinium: Con 42, Lab 26, LDem 16, Brexit 9, SNP 4, Greens 2, Others 2
ORB: Con 36, Lab 28, LDem 14, Brexit 12 (no further details)

Also, there was a Panelbase yesterday - was it reported here? Can't recall. If not...

Panelbase: Con 40, Lab 29, LDem 14, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

There's more, because, you know, the Sunday papers...

Deltapoll: Con 40, Lab 28, LDem 14, BP 11, SNP 3, Greens 2, Others 2
YouGov: Con 39, Lab 27, LDem 16, BP 7, Others ?
ComRes: Con 36, Lab 28, LDem 17, BP 10, SNP 4, Greens 3, Others 1

Labour up six points with YouGov in a matter of days, actually down with ComRes - very much against the trend (though they have consistently been the least favourable pollster for the Tories recently)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: vileplume on November 03, 2019, 05:12:15 am
US House seats are like 10 times the size (typical population of like 700,000 people) of a UK Parliament constituency (typical population of like 70,000 people). They are correspondingly much easier to poll.

Well British constituencies are drawn based on registered electorate not on population so they will all in reality have populations significantly larger than their registered electorate of ~75,000. However the point does stand, constituency polling is atrocious in the UK. Lord Ashcroft invested a lot of money doing them for the 2015 election but they were all way wide of the mark (in this case they tended to massively underestimate the Tories and massively overestimate the Lib Dems).


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 03, 2019, 05:55:14 am
I get a kick out of the lefties posting here who say the 2019 British election will run along basically on the same track as 2017.. 

Will the 2020 US election run along the same track as 2016?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: RGM2609 on November 03, 2019, 06:37:43 am
How many seats is the Brexit Party likely to win?

They aren't "likely" to win any, and have non-negligible chances in maybe half a dozen.
Probably if they are over 10% nationally they'd win 1 or 2 seats I guess. Their importance right now is how many votes will they take from the Conservatives, right?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: MillennialModerate on November 03, 2019, 06:55:38 am
I’m embarrassed FOR Nigel Farage. He’s literally “leading a party” and not standing in the election.

Pathetic


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 03, 2019, 06:59:33 am


Bu-bu-but I thought Labour was a Remain party! It's all a fake news media conspiracy to suggest they might in fact support Brexit! YOU'RE MAKING BREXIT MORE LIKELY BY NOT VOTING LABOUR!

(And no prizes for guessing whether this is going to be reported on. Better clear news space for the next time Jo Swinson forgets to say bless you after someone sneezes I suppose)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 03, 2019, 07:04:08 am


Bu-bu-but I thought Labour was a Remain party! It's all a fake news media conspiracy to suggest they might in fact support Brexit! YOU'RE MAKING BREXIT MORE LIKELY BY NOT VOTING LABOUR!

(And no prizes for guessing whether this is going to be reported on. Better clear news space for the next time Jo Swinson forgets to say bless you after someone sneezes I suppose)

I thought the LAB position is that when then come to power they will negotiate a new deal with the EU and then have a referendum where they will campaign against the deal they just negotiated? 


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 03, 2019, 07:48:16 am
The Labour position on Brexit can best be summarized as confusion. This could be a problem if the election becomes a single-issue focused campaign, and they are forced to take a side that will either anger London or the North.

In other news, Farage right now is not going to stand for a Westminster seat in December. I guess he sees the trendlines and recognizes that brexit won't be winning any seats, even with his star power? Who knows, especially in the context of last weeks debate on the party standing candidates.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 03, 2019, 08:05:48 am


Bu-bu-but I thought Labour was a Remain party! It's all a fake news media conspiracy to suggest they might in fact support Brexit! YOU'RE MAKING BREXIT MORE LIKELY BY NOT VOTING LABOUR!

(And no prizes for guessing whether this is going to be reported on. Better clear news space for the next time Jo Swinson forgets to say bless you after someone sneezes I suppose)

Labour will have another referendum with a remain option within months, if it wins.

Almost certainly, people in the party will be allowed to campaign for either side (as with Wilson in '75) This may not satisfy Remainiac purists, but might actually go down OK with many voters.



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Ishan on November 03, 2019, 10:03:27 am


Bu-bu-but I thought Labour was a Remain party! It's all a fake news media conspiracy to suggest they might in fact support Brexit! YOU'RE MAKING BREXIT MORE LIKELY BY NOT VOTING LABOUR!

(And no prizes for guessing whether this is going to be reported on. Better clear news space for the next time Jo Swinson forgets to say bless you after someone sneezes I suppose)

Labour will have another referendum with a remain option within months, if it wins.

Almost certainly, people in the party will be allowed to campaign for either side (as with Wilson in '75) This may not satisfy Remainiac purists, but might actually go down OK with many voters.


If they campaign on Leave, the Lib Dems will make sure that the people will never forget that.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 03, 2019, 10:11:13 am
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/lib-dems-greens-and-plaid-cymru-in-remain-pact-to-repeat-brecon-win-clrnch62m

"Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid Cymru in ‘remain pact’ to repeat Brecon win"

Looks like a LDEM-PC-Green alliance in Wales.  While I am sure this will hurt CON in a few seats as well LAB in a few as well I suspect this might trigger BXP->CON tactical voting in response.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 03, 2019, 10:33:35 am
Does that mean Mark Williams won't stand in Ceredigion? I can't see the Libs wanting to surrender one of their few potential gains in Wales, but that seat is potentially vulnerable to both Labour and the Tories in the right conditions.

Edit: ceredigion is exempt, williams is standing again. Quite likely a Lib gain then, plaid vote here is pretty inflexible and we'll expect a lot of Lab to Lib movement.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 03, 2019, 10:57:17 am
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/lib-dems-greens-and-plaid-cymru-in-remain-pact-to-repeat-brecon-win-clrnch62m

"Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid Cymru in ‘remain pact’ to repeat Brecon win"

Looks like a LDEM-PC-Green alliance in Wales.  While I am sure this will hurt CON in a few seats as well LAB in a few as well I suspect this might trigger BXP->CON tactical voting in response.

Perhaps, but any such move will face the considerable headwind of both Tory and Brexit Party leaders and candidates explicitly disavowing such behaviour.

Beyond that, the unspoken premise of such a move-countermove dynamic is that Brexit is going to be the primary motivator of peoples' votes. You can make a case for why it might be, but I think the opposite case is much easier to make - and more convincing.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 03, 2019, 11:23:06 am
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/lib-dems-greens-and-plaid-cymru-in-remain-pact-to-repeat-brecon-win-clrnch62m

"Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid Cymru in ‘remain pact’ to repeat Brecon win"

Looks like a LDEM-PC-Green alliance in Wales.  While I am sure this will hurt CON in a few seats as well LAB in a few as well I suspect this might trigger BXP->CON tactical voting in response.

Perhaps, but any such move will face the considerable headwind of both Tory and Brexit Party leaders and candidates explicitly disavowing such behaviour.

Beyond that, the unspoken premise of such a move-countermove dynamic is that Brexit is going to be the primary motivator of peoples' votes. You can make a case for why it might be, but I think the opposite case is much easier to make - and more convincing.

You could be right. I am just going off my view that attempts at identity based consolidation works like jujitsu or second mover advantage where the side that makes an open attempt at consolidating votes usually does not get as much out of it as it thinks and counter-consolidation in response tend to be stronger.  This is why I think any sort of CON-BXP deal would be disastrous for CON and that CON-BXP tactical voting work best in response to an external threat (Remainder alliance, Corbyn coming in with LDEM-SNP support, SNP holding the balance of power to trigger English nationalism tactical voting etc etc) and not any explicit attempt to reach such a deal. 


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 03, 2019, 11:33:58 am
No polls out of Scotland, but for fun here's the average of all the subsamples since the campaign period.

SNP 45
CON 20
LAB 15
LIB 11
BRX 6
GRN 3


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 03, 2019, 01:17:54 pm
I mean Plaid standing down in some heavily Anglophone constituencies where they are a fringe party in exchange for the LibDems standing down in some heavily Welsh-speaking constituencies where they've not polled well since the 1960s has... what effect, exactly?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jeron on November 03, 2019, 01:37:35 pm
I mean Plaid standing down in some heavily Anglophone constituencies where they are a fringe party in exchange for the LibDems standing down in some heavily Welsh-speaking constituencies where they've not polled well since the 1960s has... what effect, exactly?

It could make a difference in the marginal seats. Plaid won in Arfon by just 94 votes in 2017.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 03, 2019, 02:17:39 pm


Bu-bu-but I thought Labour was a Remain party! It's all a fake news media conspiracy to suggest they might in fact support Brexit! YOU'RE MAKING BREXIT MORE LIKELY BY NOT VOTING LABOUR!

(And no prizes for guessing whether this is going to be reported on. Better clear news space for the next time Jo Swinson forgets to say bless you after someone sneezes I suppose)

Labour will have another referendum with a remain option within months, if it wins.

Almost certainly, people in the party will be allowed to campaign for either side (as with Wilson in '75) This may not satisfy Remainiac purists, but might actually go down OK with many voters.


If they campaign on Leave, the Lib Dems will make sure that the people will never forget that.

It is pretty inconceivable that most in the party will campaign to leave whatever happens.



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 03, 2019, 03:17:08 pm
Latest Yougov poll (change from same poll from a couple of days ago)

CON    39 (+3)
LAB     27 (+6)
LDEM   16 (-2)
BXP       7 (-6)
Green    4 (-2)

Leavers
CON    66  (+9)
LAB     10  (+3)
LDEM    3  (-2)
BXP     15 (-11)
Green    1 (-1)

Remainders
CON   17  (--)
LAB    41 (+9)
LDEM  28 (-6)
Green   6 (-2)

Leavers consolidating around CON and Remainders shifting to LAB but CON stronger with Remainders than LAB is with Leaves with LDEM losing ground.

Edit: fixed typo on LAB change


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 03, 2019, 03:47:13 pm
That's the one I referred to above, Labour are up 6 points not 3.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 03, 2019, 03:54:16 pm
That's the one I referred to above, Labour are up 6 points not 3.

Opps .. typo ...


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 03, 2019, 03:56:50 pm
Well, we're getting Hard Brexit then. If Remainers are going to vote Labour after everything they've done to scupper Remain, then there's no chance of stopping it. I wish I could look forward to the surprise and outrage when they and the Tories work together to deliver it and saying I told you so, but I can't even do that...


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 03, 2019, 04:37:47 pm
Labour are never going to work with the Tories to deliver a version of Brexit that they haven't written.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 03, 2019, 05:05:32 pm
Well, we're getting Hard Brexit then. If Remainers are going to vote Labour after everything they've done to scupper Remain, then there's no chance of stopping it. I wish I could look forward to the surprise and outrage when they and the Tories work together to deliver it and saying I told you so, but I can't even do that...

We will certainly get hard Brexit if large number of "remainers" waste their votes on the LibDems or Greens in seats that they could not possibly win, but Labour might.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 03, 2019, 05:09:07 pm
Labour isn't going to win Hornchurch and Upminster or Romford, so I can happily vote my conscience there.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 03, 2019, 05:13:15 pm
It doesn't matter so much whether Labour is definitively for Remain no matter what in this election, because either a soft Brexit or Remain are much better than Boris' hard Brexit, and not voting for Labour in most seats effectively makes a hard Brexit more likely.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 03, 2019, 05:37:47 pm
Well, we're getting Hard Brexit then. If Remainers are going to vote Labour after everything they've done to scupper Remain, then there's no chance of stopping it. I wish I could look forward to the surprise and outrage when they and the Tories work together to deliver it and saying I told you so, but I can't even do that...

We will certainly get hard Brexit if large number of "remainers" waste their votes on the LibDems or Greens in seats that they could not possibly win, but Labour might.

A vote for Labour is a vote for Jeremy Corbyn's Hard Brexit. For him, worker's rights, human rights, jobs created by intra-EU trade, industry and communities supported by it, the threat of companies leaving the UK and the threat of the NHS being sold off to American big pharma are all unimportant because the EU once said something nasty and capitalist. On Brexit terms, there's no difference between Labour and the Tories and its Corbyn Labour's one great skill that they have managed to convince millions this isn't the case.

A vote for genuine Remain representation in Parliament is much better than that. Unfortunately, a large number of Remainers will see it your way and there will be 500+ MPs committed to Hard Brexit in the next parliament. Because of that, I'd be ecstatic with 20 Lib Dem MPs.

TLDR; "I'm voting Labour because I don't prioritise Brexit and I agree with them on the issues" is a stance I'm perfectly fine with. I don't agree with it but it's a reasonable one. "I'm voting Labour because they'll prevent Hard Brexit" is ridiculous and counterproductive to the Remain cause.

And before anyone points it out, yes I'm bitter and my distaste of the whole situation is bringing emotion into my judgement, which is obviously not ideal.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 03, 2019, 05:42:29 pm
A vote for Labour is a vote for Jeremy Corbyn's Hard Brexit. For him, worker's rights, human rights, jobs created by intra-EU trade, industry and communities supported by it, the threat of companies leaving the UK and the threat of the NHS being sold off to American big pharma are all unimportant because the EU once said something nasty and capitalist. On Brexit terms, there's no difference between Labour and the Tories and its Corbyn Labour's one great skill that they have managed to convince millions this isn't the case.

A vote for genuine Remain representation in Parliament is much better than that. Unfortunately, a large number of Remainers will see it your way and there will be 500+ MPs committed to Hard Brexit in the next parliament. Because of that, I'd be ecstatic with 20 Lib Dem MPs.

TLDR; "I'm voting Labour because I don't prioritise Brexit and I agree with them on the issues" is a stance I'm perfectly fine with. I don't agree with it but it's a reasonable one. "I'm voting Labour because they'll prevent Hard Brexit" is ridiculous and counterproductive to the Remain cause.

And before anyone points it out, yes I'm bitter and my distaste of the whole situation is bringing emotion into my judgement, which is obviously not ideal.

You're not being "bitter" or "emotional", you're making sh**t up out of whole cloth.

If you want to criticize Corbyn's position on the EU that's more than fine with me, but you're obviously not interested in engaging with reality at all, so there's no point in arguing with you at all.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Justice Blair on November 03, 2019, 05:50:19 pm
Can we please not derail this thread with such banal and inaccurate comments?

If you want to stop Brexit you need a second referendum. If you want a second referendum you need to work out how to get Lab+LD+Green+PC+SNP to get to 325. Look at your seat & work out who that candidate is... it's not that hard

The comment about voting Labour for a 'hard brexit' ignores the fact that there's a chunk of 50-100 members of the PLP who've spend the last two years organizing, pushing and fighting for Labour to take a much more pro-remains stance... and it's worked. And ignores the fact it was the Benn Bill that blocked no-deal & Labour votes which got the various wrecking amendments to Brexit through the HOC.

Why throw those MPs out just to get a Tory MP (the reality if you don't vote Labour in a Lib-Dem Tory marginal)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 04, 2019, 02:43:44 am
Can we please not derail this thread with such banal and inaccurate comments?

If you want to stop Brexit you need a second referendum. If you want a second referendum you need to work out how to get Lab+LD+Green+PC+SNP to get to 325. Look at your seat & work out who that candidate is... it's not that hard

The comment about voting Labour for a 'hard brexit' ignores the fact that there's a chunk of 50-100 members of the PLP who've spend the last two years organizing, pushing and fighting for Labour to take a much more pro-remains stance... and it's worked. And ignores the fact it was the Benn Bill that blocked no-deal & Labour votes which got the various wrecking amendments to Brexit through the HOC.

Why throw those MPs out just to get a Tory MP (the reality if you don't vote Labour in a Lib-Dem Tory marginal)

Indeed. I'd go further and argue Labour's position on Brexit at the moment (yes, it took them *way* too long to get there) is the most sensible and responsible one on offer. If there's one thing both sides agree on it's that they don't want to keep talking about Brexit anymore. Both the Tories and the Lib Dems are offering, in essence, an all-or-nothing resolution: either a Tory Brexit (in name only?) happens, or no Brexit ever happens. This is certainly appealing to the diehards, but neither option will provide any kind of actual conclusion to the Brexit debate.

If there's a Tory Brexit, everyone who's not a Tory - including a good chunk of diehard leavers - will decry the result. What's more, for the next decade any bad economic news or diplomatic failure will get ascribed to Brexit, rightly or not. It's a recipe for endless agony. On the other hand, a straight revocation of Article 50, with neither a referendum nor any other kind of mechanism to obtain loser's consent from leavers, is a recipe for endless resentment and acrimony. All the Brexiteers' nonsense rhetoric about 'betrayal' really will have a grain of truth about it.

Labour offers a compromise: A Brexit deal that is *much* closer to what was promised by the Leave campaign in 2016 (and doesn't screw NI) OR remaining, but only after securing a mandate for that in a referendum. It's not where I would like to be - Brexit is a terrible idea and always was - but as a way to draw a line under an acrimonious and agonizing debate foisted on the country by the Tories, a new deal+referendum is a pretty statesmanlike way to go about it.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Lord Halifax on November 04, 2019, 05:32:17 am
Can we please not derail this thread with such banal and inaccurate comments?

If you want to stop Brexit you need a second referendum. If you want a second referendum you need to work out how to get Lab+LD+Green+PC+SNP to get to 325. Look at your seat & work out who that candidate is... it's not that hard

The comment about voting Labour for a 'hard brexit' ignores the fact that there's a chunk of 50-100 members of the PLP who've spend the last two years organizing, pushing and fighting for Labour to take a much more pro-remains stance... and it's worked. And ignores the fact it was the Benn Bill that blocked no-deal & Labour votes which got the various wrecking amendments to Brexit through the HOC.

Why throw those MPs out just to get a Tory MP (the reality if you don't vote Labour in a Lib-Dem Tory marginal)

Indeed. I'd go further and argue Labour's position on Brexit at the moment (yes, it took them *way* too long to get there) is the most sensible and responsible one on offer. If there's one thing both sides agree on it's that they don't want to keep talking about Brexit anymore. Both the Tories and the Lib Dems are offering, in essence, an all-or-nothing resolution: either a Tory Brexit (in name only?) happens, or no Brexit ever happens. This is certainly appealing to the diehards, but neither option will provide any kind of actual conclusion to the Brexit debate.

If there's a Tory Brexit, everyone who's not a Tory - including a good chunck of diehard leavers - will decry the result. What's more, for the next decade any bad economic news or diplomatic failure will get ascribed to Brexit, rightly or not. It's a recipe for endless agony. On the other hand, a straight revocation of Article 50, with neither a referendum nor any other kind of mechanism to obtain loser's consent from leavers, is a recipe for endless resentment and acrimony. All the Brexiteers' nonsense rhetoric about 'betrayal' really will have a grain of truth about it.

Labour offers a compromise: A Brexit deal that is *much* closer to what was promised by the Leave campaign in 2016 (and doesn't screw NI) OR remaining, but only after securing a mandate for that in a referendum. It's not where I would like to be - Brexit is a terrible idea and always was - but as a way to draw a line under an acrimonious and agonizing debate foisted on the country by the Tories, a new deal+referendum is a pretty statesmanlike way to go about it.

Only if you assume the EU is willing to offer the UK yet another deal.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 04, 2019, 05:56:07 am
If there is a change of government, they will go along with that (even if not too enthusiastically)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 04, 2019, 06:33:51 am
And only if you assume Labour won't go back on its second referendum pledge. Which I don't.

In other (much less angry and confrontational news) Rick Wakeman's 'Arthur' is apparently back as the BBC's Election Theme. I think I can say without fear of contradiction that this is the best news we've had all election.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 04, 2019, 07:29:16 am
Can we please not derail this thread with such banal and inaccurate comments?

If you want to stop Brexit you need a second referendum. If you want a second referendum you need to work out how to get Lab+LD+Green+PC+SNP to get to 325. Look at your seat & work out who that candidate is... it's not that hard

The comment about voting Labour for a 'hard brexit' ignores the fact that there's a chunk of 50-100 members of the PLP who've spend the last two years organizing, pushing and fighting for Labour to take a much more pro-remains stance... and it's worked. And ignores the fact it was the Benn Bill that blocked no-deal & Labour votes which got the various wrecking amendments to Brexit through the HOC.

Why throw those MPs out just to get a Tory MP (the reality if you don't vote Labour in a Lib-Dem Tory marginal)

It needs to be mentioned that Hilary Benn is very different from his father in worldview.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 04, 2019, 08:18:40 am
Can we please not derail this thread with such banal and inaccurate comments?

If you want to stop Brexit you need a second referendum. If you want a second referendum you need to work out how to get Lab+LD+Green+PC+SNP to get to 325. Look at your seat & work out who that candidate is... it's not that hard

The comment about voting Labour for a 'hard brexit' ignores the fact that there's a chunk of 50-100 members of the PLP who've spend the last two years organizing, pushing and fighting for Labour to take a much more pro-remains stance... and it's worked. And ignores the fact it was the Benn Bill that blocked no-deal & Labour votes which got the various wrecking amendments to Brexit through the HOC.

Why throw those MPs out just to get a Tory MP (the reality if you don't vote Labour in a Lib-Dem Tory marginal)

Indeed. I'd go further and argue Labour's position on Brexit at the moment (yes, it took them *way* too long to get there) is the most sensible and responsible one on offer. If there's one thing both sides agree on it's that they don't want to keep talking about Brexit anymore. Both the Tories and the Lib Dems are offering, in essence, an all-or-nothing resolution: either a Tory Brexit (in name only?) happens, or no Brexit ever happens. This is certainly appealing to the diehards, but neither option will provide any kind of actual conclusion to the Brexit debate.

If there's a Tory Brexit, everyone who's not a Tory - including a good chunck of diehard leavers - will decry the result. What's more, for the next decade any bad economic news or diplomatic failure will get ascribed to Brexit, rightly or not. It's a recipe for endless agony. On the other hand, a straight revocation of Article 50, with neither a referendum nor any other kind of mechanism to obtain loser's consent from leavers, is a recipe for endless resentment and acrimony. All the Brexiteers' nonsense rhetoric about 'betrayal' really will have a grain of truth about it.

Labour offers a compromise: A Brexit deal that is *much* closer to what was promised by the Leave campaign in 2016 (and doesn't screw NI) OR remaining, but only after securing a mandate for that in a referendum. It's not where I would like to be - Brexit is a terrible idea and always was - but as a way to draw a line under an acrimonious and agonizing debate foisted on the country by the Tories, a new deal+referendum is a pretty statesmanlike way to go about it.

it all sounds good whene put like that, but lets remember that this is FPTP, which loves to push things towards a 1v1 dichotomy based on clear partisan lines. Holding the middle ground is a smart thing to do both in the long term, and in the short term when considering labours voter divide and leadership vs backbench on the issue. Unless you are one of the 30-40% who have prior affiliations with labour, it's easy to look at a issue and gravitate towards the simplest most  polarizing message. Their 30-40% is certainly not immune to the 'all-or-nothing' messaging, it's just going to take a bit more effort to convert them. This was one of Clintons problem: rightly had a lot of details, but that made her programs harder to markets when compared to Trump's catchy one-liners. The Tories and the LDs are going to keep pestering Corbyn because Labour is weak on this issue that so many people  care about, 'which side are you on' statements may work wonders. It's labours job to navigate and have a appropriate counterargument for these upcoming attacks.

The the other thing to note is that there likely will be some sort of LD 'moment' because of Labour weakness on this issue. I would be seriously surprised if the LDs just had a slow decline in polls and didn't have a point where they recover upwards before falling back down. The tories also are going to be throwing tons of softballs towards Swinson because like Harper's Canadian Conservatives, they want to see the third party carve up the opposition. Now the moment may just be that, a moment, and it is not limited any specific period of the campaign. It's labour's job to be ready for the LD bump when it happens and be willing to adjust their platform, talking points, or campaign approach to push the LDs back down to their prior position.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 04, 2019, 12:21:41 pm
Some good news for Labour: Woodcock is to stand down at Barrow & Furness. He and his partner (liberal journalist Isabel Hardman, whose employment by the increasingly hard-right Spectator is, of course, a source of continued bafflement to all) are having a baby and he seems to have decided to move forward with his life. Had he run again I doubt he would have won, but he'd have knocked the seat right of contention. As it is, well, once again it will depend on how that peculiar collection of peculiar towns responds to whatever the hell the national environment is by December.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 04, 2019, 12:27:55 pm
Labours Lindsay Hoyle looks likely to be elected the next speaker in one of the upcoming ballots. I have a feeling the Tories and the LDs won't even think of contesting the seat, since the decision to hold a speaker vote before the poll was a decision made to temper uncertainty.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 04, 2019, 12:42:26 pm


All told, this is fairly good news for everyone. The Tories are still in the lead and gained more than Labour. Labour's also gained and is within spitting distance of the lead in a way they aren't in other polls. The Lib Dems and Brexit Party only dropped by small amounts, so easily dismissed as statistical noise.

Elsewhere, the Brexit Party PPC (prospective parliamentary candidate, for those not in the UK) dropped out and switched to the Tories. This is good news for the Tories, as the seat in question, Dudley South, is just the kind of place where a strong Brexit Party presence could cost the Tories a seat they cannot afford to lose.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Farmlands on November 04, 2019, 01:25:46 pm
Seems as if it is 2017 all over again. Which is expected, but disappointing, in my personal opinion, as it shows voters are willing to ignore the problems of the two main parties as long as they keep their opponent out of Westminster. Which just makes it easier for weak or unpopular leaders, like Corbyn, to stay in power and not be held accountable.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 04, 2019, 01:28:41 pm
More developments in NI: UUP reverse their "stand everywhere" policy, standing down in Belfast North in aid of the DUP's Nigel Dodds, in exchange for the UUP given free reign in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

SDLP will not stand in three seats - Belfast East (where they will back Naomi Long of Alliance), Belfast North (where they will back Sinn Fein against Nigel Dodds) and North Down (where they back Lady Hermon.

In exchange Sinn Fein will not stand in three Northern Irish seats: in Belfast South (where they will back the SDLP's Claire Hanna), in Belfast East (where they will also back Long) and North Down (also for Hermon).


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat on November 04, 2019, 01:34:59 pm
More developments in NI: UUP reverse their "stand everywhere" policy, standing down in Belfast North in aid of the DUP's Nigel Dodds, in exchange for the UUP given free reign in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

SDLP will not stand in three seats - Belfast East (where they will back Naomi Long of Alliance), Belfast North (where they will back Sinn Fein against Nigel Dodds) and North Down (where they back Lady Hermon.

In exchange Sinn Fein will not stand in three Northern Irish seats: in Belfast South (where they will back the SDLP's Claire Hanna), in Belfast East (where they will also back Long) and North Down (also for Hermon).

Is the SDLP favored anywhere?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 04, 2019, 01:40:38 pm
More developments in NI: UUP reverse their "stand everywhere" policy, standing down in Belfast North in aid of the DUP's Nigel Dodds, in exchange for the UUP given free reign in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

SDLP will not stand in three seats - Belfast East (where they will back Naomi Long of Alliance), Belfast North (where they will back Sinn Fein against Nigel Dodds) and North Down (where they back Lady Hermon.

In exchange Sinn Fein will not stand in three Northern Irish seats: in Belfast South (where they will back the SDLP's Claire Hanna), in Belfast East (where they will also back Long) and North Down (also for Hermon).

Is the SDLP favored anywhere?

Belfast South (especially if the UUP stand separate from the DUP) and perhaps Foyle, where their leader is standing (Foyle is an extremely marginal SF/SDLP which is basically Derry - for obvious reasons it is not named after the city it covers).


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 04, 2019, 01:43:39 pm
More developments in NI: UUP reverse their "stand everywhere" policy, standing down in Belfast North in aid of the DUP's Nigel Dodds, in exchange for the UUP given free reign in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

SDLP will not stand in three seats - Belfast East (where they will back Naomi Long of Alliance), Belfast North (where they will back Sinn Fein against Nigel Dodds) and North Down (where they back Lady Hermon.

In exchange Sinn Fein will not stand in three Northern Irish seats: in Belfast South (where they will back the SDLP's Claire Hanna), in Belfast East (where they will also back Long) and North Down (also for Hermon).

Is the SDLP favored anywhere?

Belfast South (especially if the UUP stand separate from the DUP) and perhaps Foyle, where their leader is standing (Foyle is an extremely marginal SF/SDLP which is basically Derry - for obvious reasons it is not named after the city it covers).
What do you think Long's chances are in Belfast East? 


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 04, 2019, 01:58:13 pm
More developments in NI: UUP reverse their "stand everywhere" policy, standing down in Belfast North in aid of the DUP's Nigel Dodds, in exchange for the UUP given free reign in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

SDLP will not stand in three seats - Belfast East (where they will back Naomi Long of Alliance), Belfast North (where they will back Sinn Fein against Nigel Dodds) and North Down (where they back Lady Hermon.

In exchange Sinn Fein will not stand in three Northern Irish seats: in Belfast South (where they will back the SDLP's Claire Hanna), in Belfast East (where they will also back Long) and North Down (also for Hermon).

Is the SDLP favored anywhere?

Belfast South (especially if the UUP stand separate from the DUP) and perhaps Foyle, where their leader is standing (Foyle is an extremely marginal SF/SDLP which is basically Derry - for obvious reasons it is not named after the city it covers).
What do you think Long's chances are in Belfast East? 

Not OP but I suspect Long is going back to Westminster. The Alliance is the only NI party with any sense of 'momentun:' the Sinners and DUP are down from their 2017 high and the SDLP/UUP are trading a consistent and long-term stable vote share for actual seats. But beyond her the Alliance's prospects lower, even with their momentum. For more  check out this (now outdated) analysis I snagged from a Northern Irishman (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=342118.msg7035627#msg7035627) from another forum.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 04, 2019, 02:11:25 pm
Here's a basic 'paint' map for you to colour in

()


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 04, 2019, 03:07:26 pm
afleitch, your post reminded me.  Here is a map of MPs not standing or moving seats in the upcoming election.  I'll have a final map on the 14th when nominations close and appeals are done.

()

Also, I used the party the MP was elected with instead of what they currently hold.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 04, 2019, 03:58:03 pm
More developments in NI: UUP reverse their "stand everywhere" policy, standing down in Belfast North in aid of the DUP's Nigel Dodds, in exchange for the UUP given free reign in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

SDLP will not stand in three seats - Belfast East (where they will back Naomi Long of Alliance), Belfast North (where they will back Sinn Fein against Nigel Dodds) and North Down (where they back Lady Hermon.

In exchange Sinn Fein will not stand in three Northern Irish seats: in Belfast South (where they will back the SDLP's Claire Hanna), in Belfast East (where they will also back Long) and North Down (also for Hermon).

Is the SDLP favored anywhere?

Belfast South (especially if the UUP stand separate from the DUP) and perhaps Foyle, where their leader is standing (Foyle is an extremely marginal SF/SDLP which is basically Derry - for obvious reasons it is not named after the city it covers).
What do you think Long's chances are in Belfast East? 

I don't know tbh. First off, the abstention by SF and sdlp won't matter - I don't think the nationalist vote combined has ever even come close to breaking the 5% desosit threshold. The issue is that the current MP has a pretty thumping lead and is not surrounded by scandal (which was the reason Long won back in 2010) - in a place as inflexible as NI it could be insurmountable, and if he is defeated it would indicate a serious issue with rhe DUP as a brand. I honestly think, even with alliance doing well, he is the safest DUP MP in Belfast.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Tintrlvr on November 04, 2019, 04:28:11 pm
More developments in NI: UUP reverse their "stand everywhere" policy, standing down in Belfast North in aid of the DUP's Nigel Dodds, in exchange for the UUP given free reign in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

SDLP will not stand in three seats - Belfast East (where they will back Naomi Long of Alliance), Belfast North (where they will back Sinn Fein against Nigel Dodds) and North Down (where they back Lady Hermon.

In exchange Sinn Fein will not stand in three Northern Irish seats: in Belfast South (where they will back the SDLP's Claire Hanna), in Belfast East (where they will also back Long) and North Down (also for Hermon).

Is the SDLP favored anywhere?

Belfast South (especially if the UUP stand separate from the DUP) and perhaps Foyle, where their leader is standing (Foyle is an extremely marginal SF/SDLP which is basically Derry - for obvious reasons it is not named after the city it covers).
What do you think Long's chances are in Belfast East?  

I don't know tbh. First off, the abstention by SF and sdlp won't matter - I don't think the nationalist vote combined has ever even come close to breaking the 5% desosit threshold. The issue is that the current MP has a pretty thumping lead and is not surrounded by scandal (which was the reason Long won back in 2010) - in a place as inflexible as NI it could be insurmountable, and if he is defeated it would indicate a serious issue with rhe DUP as a brand. I honestly think, even with alliance doing well, he is the safest DUP MP in Belfast.

I do agree with this; I think the Alliance has a better shot in Belfast South, where they could win on a close split between the Unionist and Nationalist parties, than in Belfast East.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: EastAnglianLefty on November 04, 2019, 05:54:05 pm
SF standing down in N Down is a bit odd, as whilst it saves them £500 it doesn't help Hermon win and it probably increases their chances of shedding votes to a dissident candidate in Foyle and hence letting the SDLP back in.

As for Belfast East and South, I think it both were entirely within the city limits then the Alliance would take them both, but in East they'll probably trail enough from Dundonald that they won't be able to catch up in Belfast itself. South is probably their best prospect, but candidate quality probably gives the SDLP an advantage. A lot also depends on how much the Green vote does or doesn't get squeezed.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 04, 2019, 07:21:20 pm


All told, this is fairly good news for everyone. The Tories are still in the lead and gained more than Labour. Labour's also gained and is within spitting distance of the lead in a way they aren't in other polls. The Lib Dems and Brexit Party only dropped by small amounts, so easily dismissed as statistical noise.

Elsewhere, the Brexit Party PPC (prospective parliamentary candidate, for those not in the UK) dropped out and switched to the Tories. This is good news for the Tories, as the seat in question, Dudley South, is just the kind of place where a strong Brexit Party presence could cost the Tories a seat they cannot afford to lose.

Though the changes in this poll are compared to a previous one nearly a month ago - the Tories gained between then and late October in most polling.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 04, 2019, 07:27:20 pm
ICM now work for Reuters, having been fired from The Grauniad after an openly acknowledged decision to 'adjust everything to make it at least 3pts more Tory' backfired embarrassingly at the 2017 GE. And one presumes they have dropped the above approach.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 04, 2019, 09:39:44 pm
One of the likelier independent gains of the night will be in Ashfield, where Gloria De Piero is standing down and longtime local council leader Jason Zadrozny is standing for his Ashfield Independents. Zadrozny was probably going to win back in 2010 for the Lib Dems, till his sudden arrest for child abuse allegations. Since then, he's been expelled from the party, tried to run for PCC, been re-elected as an independent, been acquitted of all charges and then swept in the recent locals with his new pet party.

In other independent news Claire Wright is standing for a third time in East Devon, except this time not against the slightly dodgy Hugo Swire, who is retiring. Sadly for her she doesn't seem to have the goodwill of the Remain/Prog Alliance with a Lib Dem on the ballot.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 05, 2019, 06:40:41 am
I am reading some of the coverage of the 2017 election.  A Vox article:

https://www.vox.com/world/2017/6/9/15767522/uk-election-results-hung-parliament

states May did not agree to participate in leadership debates. The article states this empathized her arrogance.  I do not have an independent recollection of this.  Is it correct.

I would suggest that both Johnson and Corbyn change course and call for or agree to permit Swinson in every debate.  If they do not I think they may cause a backlash in her favor.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: IceAgeComing on November 05, 2019, 07:08:28 am
I'm assuming this is about the BBC debate: both major party leaders initially said they'd not be attending but on the day of the thing Corbyn suddenly announced he would in something that I think was probably planned to make May and the Tories look bad and it worked; the "why didn't the Prime Minister show up???" line was easy for everyone to use and they all did.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 05, 2019, 07:47:53 am




First poll I have seen in a while of any sort that is so favorable to potential PM BoJo. This is probably why the Northern Wales seats are all on the Tory target list at the moment.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 05, 2019, 07:51:17 am
Oh and here's another constituency poll I picked up while at the Britain Elects twitter handle. This one certainly seems like the kind of consituency poll that is off because of the natural barriers to polling a single constituency.



EDIT: and here is one that seems more reasonable:



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2019, 08:05:20 am
Yougov london poll

LAB    39
CON   29
LDEM 19
BXP      6
Green.  5


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 05, 2019, 08:21:11 am
Swinson says she will never let Corbyn become PM.  She knows she has to get the votes of Conservative Remainers. She knows this is the only possible way.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10272085/general-election-live-latest-news/

Will this not make Labour less willing to tactically vote for a Lib Dem?

Is also possible she might get caught making some deals with Labour?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: MillennialModerate on November 05, 2019, 09:27:31 am
I know I’ve talked about how predictable this is election is going to be but even so it’s shaping up to be pretty disappointing and by that I mean I expected this election to have a lot of twists and turns and lead to a hung parliament, marginals switching all over the place, 4 way races but it already looks like for political junkies this is going to be a major let down

• Farage isn’t standing, major let down. Farage in the commons at PMQ’s would be terrific entertainment for years to come - no matter who is PM.

• It appears like voters are drifting toward Tories and Labour - meaning the chances of marginals flipping all over and four way races are shrinking.

• It appears as if the Lib Dems aren’t going to win a boatload of seats from remainers on both sides, as it first seemed. It also seems as if BrExit might not win ANY seats which means you won’t see the Tories being forced make serious choices and  to stop riding the self serving fence they’ve been on for three years

Revising my prediction in a big way:

Conservative - 360
Labour - 200
Lib Dem20
SNP - 45


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 05, 2019, 09:30:54 am
Parliament hasn't even been dissolved yet, kid.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 05, 2019, 09:38:21 am
Yougov london poll

LAB    39
CON   29
LDEM 19
BXP      6
Green.  5

Electoral Calculus sets out the London vote in 2017 as follows:
            Labour got 54.5% and the Liberals 8.8 for a total of 63.3%
            Conservatives got 33.1% and UKIP 1.3% for a      
It predicts the current vote at Labor 34.2%,
                                                    Conservatives 29.5                                        
                                                    Liberal Dems 21.2
                                                    Brexit 7.5%
                                                    UKIP  .3%
                                                    Green 5.5%
                                                    Other 1.8%

On this swing it finds the Conservatives gain 6 seats from Labour: Etham, Battersea, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central, Kensington, and Dagenham and Rainhem

The Liberals gain Richmond Park from the Tories and Bermonbsey and Old Southwark from Labour

Swinson better not be caught trying to make any deals with Labour.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 05, 2019, 09:52:12 am
One thing about the London poll is that 52% of Remainers are backing Labour with only 26% backing the Lib Dems. That's worse than the 30% of backers they have in the most recent GB wide YouGov. Lib Dems underperforming, relatively, with BME voters accounts for this.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 05, 2019, 10:21:10 am
The Daily Mail touts a new You Gov poll showing that Brexit gained 4% to 11% after Farage said he would contest 600 seats.  The Tories were down to 38, Labour down 2 to 25% and the Lib Dems unchanged at 16. 

The Daily Mail endorsed the Tories in 2015 and 2017.  Do not know why they are encouraging Farage.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 05, 2019, 10:43:38 am
Philip Hammond is standing down in Runnymead and Weybridge, will not run in 2019.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 05, 2019, 10:54:09 am
In reading today’s Daily Mail I think I come up with the reason that Corbyn will not recover this year as in 2017.  It is the Anti-Semitism that has been propagated by several Labourites. I that is also the reason his satisfaction level is -60.

In today’s Mail there is article covering Tony Blair’s attack on Corbyn for allowing Labour to be tainted with anti-Semitism and not dealing with in a proper manner. He spoke before a Board of Deputies of British Jews.  They gave him a standing ovation.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7651683/Tony-Blair-says-anti-Semitism-absolutely-killing-Labour-Party.html

In another article the Mail covered the apology of the Labour candidate running against Boris Johnson in Uxbridge and Ruislip seat for deeply inappropriate anti-Semitic tweets.

It is an issue that keeps coming up.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: IceAgeComing on November 05, 2019, 11:27:21 am
wow didn't think we'd get the editor of the daily mail posting on these forums

perhaps you should consider your own anti-semitism before attacking others; let he who has not sinned etc


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 05, 2019, 11:32:33 am
wow didn't think we'd get the editor of the daily mail posting on these forums

perhaps you should consider your own anti-semitism before attacking others; let he who has not sinned etc

I knew someone would attack me like this.

I would suggest you talk to Tony Blair.  He is the one going around making speeches.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 05, 2019, 12:35:16 pm
wow didn't think we'd get the editor of the daily mail posting on these forums

Unlikely: Grieg is a better writer than that.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 05, 2019, 01:24:58 pm
Main story on BBC News site right now (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-50302172), probably not a super one for the government, on balance.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 05, 2019, 01:49:41 pm
Main story on BBC News site right now (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-50302172), probably not a super one for the government, on balance.

At least it's better for them than what's trending on Twitter



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 05, 2019, 02:02:51 pm
Main story on BBC News site right now (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-50302172), probably not a super one for the government, on balance.

At least it's better for them than what's trending on Twitter



....

What annoys me is that deep down I know that JRM has not a clue what the inside of a densely packed tower block looks like. Even without smoke and raging fire.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 05, 2019, 02:16:27 pm
Your daily reminder that Tories are sociopaths. :)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 05, 2019, 02:20:36 pm
I'm thinking of doing a weekly 5 minute audio podcast from a Scottish perspective for this forum if anyone is up for that. I prefer talking to writing :)

Also 'Arthur' is back for the BBC Election Theme, vastly different from Rick Wakeman's prog rock perfection but welcome!

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/1191309283134230528


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 05, 2019, 06:48:18 pm
So Corbyn is now claiming that a trade deal with the US could cost the NHS £500m a week in higher drug prices. Tbh this seems like a great move, given how well the £350m claim worked.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Lumine on November 05, 2019, 07:18:07 pm
I suspect they'll get their act together, but man are the Conservatives making Theresa May look like a competent campaigner at the moment.

(Fantastic to see the Arthur theme back!)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 05, 2019, 07:19:26 pm
Tonight's/tomorrow's front page for the Borisograph - bizarre really isn't strong enough.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 06, 2019, 04:36:20 am
Holding up US drug, food, safety standards and having to deal with Trump as an immanent, amorphous danger as Boris attempts a Trumpian style disinformation campaign, might be a good move by Labour actually.

Because the Tories can't deny it would absolutely not happen. Even if on paper it probably wouldn't be as bad.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 06, 2019, 07:38:23 am
Alun Cairns, Welsh Secretary resigns as an MP for his role in squashing a rape trial.

His seat, the Vale of Glamorgen, is a bellwether that contains the working-class industrial resort town of Barry as well as more Tory inclined villages.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 06, 2019, 08:41:10 am
Williamson, Hepburn and Godsiff all rejected as candidates by the NEC.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Heat on November 06, 2019, 09:41:40 am
Alun Cairns, Welsh Secretary resigns as an MP for his role in squashing a rape trial.

His seat, the Vale of Glamorgen, is a bellwether that contains the working-class industrial resort town of Barry as well as more Tory inclined villages.
I believe he's only resigned as Welsh Secretary and still intends to stand in the election.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Cassius on November 06, 2019, 09:51:31 am
Alun Cairns, Welsh Secretary resigns as an MP for his role in squashing a rape trial.

His seat, the Vale of Glamorgen, is a bellwether that contains the working-class industrial resort town of Barry as well as more Tory inclined villages.
I believe he's only resigned as Welsh Secretary and still intends to stand in the election.

He wasn’t involved in collapsing the rape trial - he’s resigned because he wasn’t clear regarding how soon he knew about the individual in question’s involvement in collapsing the rape trial.

As I expected though, the avalanche of embarrassing trivia that will likely bury the Tories chances of winning a majority has begun.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 06, 2019, 10:00:59 am
Williamson, Hepburn and Godsiff all rejected as candidates by the NEC.

Excellent news :)

Of course the first named will attract the usual cranks in his support - its actually a very good way of telling who on the Labour left is actually serious about getting and using power, and who aren't.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 06, 2019, 01:02:06 pm
Apparently Nick Brown was extremely insistent on Godsiff getting the heave-ho, and, well, it's hard not to respond to that detail with a cackle.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 06, 2019, 01:05:00 pm
Bad news: Lady Sylvia Hermon is retiring.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2019, 01:05:35 pm


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Tintrlvr on November 06, 2019, 01:09:41 pm
Bad news: Lady Sylvia Hermon is retiring.

Perhaps she thinks she won't win after the DUP gave her a close scare last time around. Any chance for someone other than the DUP (maybe the Alliance if they can get the Greens to stand down, or vice versa?) to win the seat?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 06, 2019, 01:13:36 pm
Bad news: Lady Sylvia Hermon is retiring.

Perhaps she thinks she won't win after the DUP gave her a close scare last time around. Any chance for someone other than the DUP (maybe the Alliance if they can get the Greens to stand down, or vice versa?) to win the seat?

She may have had enough: it's been eighteen years and the political atmosphere is increasingly ghoulish. As for the constituency... it is the most singular constituency in Northern Ireland, so who knows.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2019, 01:14:37 pm
Bad news: Lady Sylvia Hermon is retiring.

Perhaps she thinks she won't win after the DUP gave her a close scare last time around. Any chance for someone other than the DUP (maybe the Alliance if they can get the Greens to stand down, or vice versa?) to win the seat?

There was rumors today that Upper Bann would be vacated by the expected Carla Lockhart, and replaced with DUP leader Arlene Foster. With North  Down now open and a 'gimmi' pickup for the DUP, at least on paper, Foster probably goes there if those rumors  had any leg to them.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Justice Blair on November 06, 2019, 02:34:11 pm
Apparently Nick Brown was extremely insistent on Godsiff getting the heave-ho, and, well, it's hard not to respond to that detail with a cackle.

The sun is out and so am I.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 06, 2019, 03:09:28 pm
Looks like Tom Watson is not running...

CON gains West Bromwich East ?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 06, 2019, 03:12:51 pm
Looks like Tom Watson is not running...

CON gains West Bromwich East ?

Highly unlikely. Tories didn't even win when the SD split the vote near perfectly in 1983.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 06, 2019, 03:42:43 pm


Electoral Calculus
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Cambridgeshire%20South
Predicts the following for this seat.

2017
Votes   2017
Share                         Predicted 2019
Votes
CON   33,631   51.8%   42.5%
LAB   17,679   27.2%   16.2%
LIB   12,102   18.6%   29.6%
Green   1,512   2.3%   3.5%
Brexit   0   0.0%   6.8%
UKIP   0   0.0%   0.1%
OTH   0   0.0%   1.3%
CON Majority   15,952   24.6%   Pred Maj 12.9%

This seat voted 39% leave.  In 17 this not effect the votE.   We shall have to see.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Lord Halifax on November 06, 2019, 03:56:03 pm
Tom Watson will continue as deputy leader during the campaign. Who do you think will replace him?



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 06, 2019, 04:03:48 pm
The post is actually very weak 99% of the time (basically only becomes relevant when the Leader resigns) and serves little practical purpose, other than giving the holder a seat on the NEC. Historically it was an honorific, one that often went to defeated leadership contenders.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 06, 2019, 04:10:31 pm
Two questions for the Labour supporters: what is your reaction to Swinson’s declaration she will never make Corbyn PM.

We know she and the other remain parties will not make Boris PM.

Then assume a hung Parliament and that the hat the Tories have the most seats and there not enough DUP or Independents to makeBoris PM

Will the nation have to await a Labour leadership election to discover who will be PM.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Lord Halifax on November 06, 2019, 04:42:42 pm
Chris Williamson has stated he will run as an Independent Socialist in Derby North, which should benefit the Tories.



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 06, 2019, 05:28:34 pm
Looks like Tom Watson is not running...

CON gains West Bromwich East ?

Highly unlikely. Tories didn't even win when the SD split the vote near perfectly in 1983.

Note also that despite all the bluster it wasn't even arguably close two years ago: majority of 20% on a vote share of 58%. As Watson polled 50% two years earlier that is probably a relatively 'hard' 58%, so to speak. Labour also won every ward in the constituency in May.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 06, 2019, 06:35:49 pm
Watson was at least gracious enough to time his announcement to overshadow Johnson's set-piece campaign launch in the evening, rather than Corbyn's big speech earlier today.

No I have never particularly liked or trusted him, and think the Leech business was very very bad. But he will still be a hard act to follow for his "wing" of the party.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Kingpoleon on November 06, 2019, 06:55:17 pm
I have to say, Watson was a good leader for his wing of Labour, and it’s sad to see him go.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Lord Halifax on November 06, 2019, 08:01:33 pm


:(


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 06, 2019, 08:10:58 pm


:(

Otherwise  known as the 2017/18 GOP 'strategy.'


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 07, 2019, 03:06:43 am


Consistent with my big post here  (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=342118.msg7038735#msg7038735)on how the best place for Swinson's Lib-Dems in not just London but perhaps the entire country this cycle could be the wealthiest and whitest slice of london, a slice that extends outwards into Raab's seat.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 07, 2019, 03:27:51 am


Consistent with my big post here  (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=342118.msg7038735#msg7038735)on how the best place for Swinson's Lib-Dems in not just London but perhaps the entire country this cycle could be the wealthiest and whitest slice of london, a slice that extends outwards into Raab's seat.

Yay a poll from my constituency! Totally agree that E&W falls into 'slice' territory. So far I've received only Lib Dem literature. Truth be told, the Lib Dems will have to get lucky if they want to take the seat: a Tory implosion AND mass tactical voting by Lab. Not impossible, but will need a lot of work to make happen.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Justice Blair on November 07, 2019, 06:44:20 am


Consistent with my big post here  (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=342118.msg7038735#msg7038735)on how the best place for Swinson's Lib-Dems in not just London but perhaps the entire country this cycle could be the wealthiest and whitest slice of london, a slice that extends outwards into Raab's seat.

Yay a poll from my constituency! Totally agree that E&W falls into 'slice' territory. So far I've received only Lib Dem literature. Truth be told, the Lib Dems will have to get lucky if they want to take the seat: a Tory implosion AND mass tactical voting by Lab. Not impossible, but will need a lot of work to make happen.

are you gonna vote Lib Dem?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 07, 2019, 06:52:05 am


:(

Otherwise  known as the 2017/18 GOP 'strategy.'

There is no actual evidence this is planned, its a totally unsourced rumour.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 07, 2019, 06:56:32 am


:(

Otherwise  known as the 2017/18 GOP 'strategy.'

There is no actual evidence this is planned, its a totally unsourced rumour.

And even if it was going to happen, it wouldn't make the tiniest bit of difference to the result


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 07, 2019, 07:02:01 am
Also, the Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid have entered into a Remain alliance, which involves standing down in a number of seats. And of course, one of the seats the Lib Dems have chosen to stand down in is mine. Terrific. I'm not huge on voting Green but I can at least stomach it unlike everyone else so that's what I'll be doing.

I doubt this alliance will shift a single seat in the end.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 07, 2019, 07:32:59 am
Quick tally up of the constituency polls.  Tories are down 12, Labour down 15, Lib Dems up 15, Brexit at 8 and Greens at 2.

In terms of % rise and fall based on 2017 this gives C35 L26 LD19 B9 G7, so it's not actually far off the national polls.

What it suggests is that there's a some reassortment underway which could disproportionately help the Lib Dems. Or these polls might just be sh!t.





Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Justice Blair on November 07, 2019, 07:33:34 am
Also, the Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid have entered into a Remain alliance, which involves standing down in a number of seats. And of course, one of the seats the Lib Dems have chosen to stand down in is mine. Terrific. I'm not huge on voting Green but I can at least stomach it unlike everyone else so that's what I'll be doing.

I doubt this alliance will shift a single seat in the end.

For some of the seats it actually benefits Labour- for example in Exeter the Lib Dems aren't running & in Bermondsey the Greens aren't running.

If I was a Labour MP I'd be worried about losing remainy votes to the Lib Dems & low info/anti-politics votes to the Green- if you remove one of the two they're just as likely to float back to Labour as one of the rivals.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 07, 2019, 07:52:02 am
Why are the Greens standing Molly Scott Cato, one of their bigger names, in Stroud? Grudge against Drew?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 07, 2019, 08:10:23 am
Why are the Greens standing Molly Scott Cato, one of their bigger names, in Stroud? Grudge against Drew?

She is local to that area, isn't she?

But also Stroud saw one of the earliest ever "Green surges" (three decades ago now) and remains something of an iconic place in the party's mindset even though they have never really done well there in GEs.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 07, 2019, 09:20:25 am


Consistent with my big post here  (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=342118.msg7038735#msg7038735)on how the best place for Swinson's Lib-Dems in not just London but perhaps the entire country this cycle could be the wealthiest and whitest slice of london, a slice that extends outwards into Raab's seat.

Yay a poll from my constituency! Totally agree that E&W falls into 'slice' territory. So far I've received only Lib Dem literature. Truth be told, the Lib Dems will have to get lucky if they want to take the seat: a Tory implosion AND mass tactical voting by Lab. Not impossible, but will need a lot of work to make happen.

are you gonna vote Lib Dem?

Possibly. I'll see how the polls are looking closer to the day. If the Lib Dems are clearly in third and there's no local evidence that the Tories are flailing, I'll vote Labour. If there's a chance of knocking off Raab, tho, of course I'll take it.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 07, 2019, 10:01:57 am
[broken images]

Here's the full list of 'electoral pact' seats negotiated between the remain alliance.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 07, 2019, 10:47:18 am
()

Full map of the Remain Alliance. I suspect it contains a lot of the LDs main defense and top targets, Notable missing seats:

-St Albans
-Cities of London and Westminster
-Putney
-Kingston and Surbiton
-Cambridge
-Carshalton and Wallington
-Ceredigion still remains a LD/PC grudge match

-Eastbourne remains a peculiar seat for both the LDs and 'their' incumbent.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2019, 11:00:09 am
()

Full map of the Remain Alliance. I suspect it contains a lot of the LDs main defense and top targets, Notable missing seats:

-St Albans
-Cities of London and Westminster
-Putney
-Kingston and Surbiton
-Cambridge
-Carshalton and Wallington
-Ceredigion still remains a LD/PC grudge match

-Eastbourne remains a peculiar seat for both the LDs and 'their' incumbent.

Other than Cambridge (and Ceredigion), I find it strange that the Greens weren't willing to stand aside in any of these. I understand Cambridge because it should be a relatively strong seat for them.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 07, 2019, 11:07:01 am
Lib Dems and Plaid stepping down in the Vale of Glamorgen will probably be a lot more beneficial to Lavour than the Greens. Scrap what I said about Stroud, that truly is the weirdest part of this alliance - the Greens got less than 1% of the vote last election! I guess the Welsh Greens wanted a token run, and it's not like there are many great targets for them, but still very funny.

I imagine some of the obvious omissions are due to Eurosceptic candidates e.g. St Ives, Eastbourne or friendly incumbents (Norwich South? Sheffield Central?). Or for that matter obstinate local parties, but you'd have to be on the ground to find out what's going on there.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2019, 11:09:24 am
Lib Dems and Plaid stepping down in the Vale of Glamorgen will probably be a lot more beneficial to Lavour than the Greens. Scrap what I said about Stroud, that truly is the weirdest part of this alliance - the Greens got less than 1% of the vote last election! I guess the Welsh Greens wanted a token run, and it's not like there are many great targets for them, but still very funny.

I imagine some of the obvious omissions are due to Eurosceptic candidates e.g. St Ives, Eastbourne or friendly incumbents (Norwich South? Sheffield Central?). Or for that matter obstinate local parties, but you'd have to be on the ground to find out what's going on there.

That's the problem when the Greens are only relevant in maybe 5 seats nationwide but want to be seen as an equal partner in the alliance.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 07, 2019, 11:26:06 am
True. Another issue is a lot of the Green "surge" was based around a Lib Dem collapse amongst certain sections of the population - students and bobos - that they had cultivated in the Blair years. This means a lot of seats that have seemingly healthy Green vote-shares have Lib Dem histories and latent Lib Dem local machinery and ambitious personnel who don't feel like standing down because central office has made a deal with Caroline Lucas. (Remember, a key part of the Lib Dem appeal is they are the LOCAL party, whose branches theoretically act as autonomous representatives). The only seats the with prior LD history that  have effectively been ceded to Greens, at first glance, are the Isle of Wight (where the local Green is a notable) and Bristol West. Other seats where the Greens have scored highly in 2015 or had good local results since - Sheffield Central, Norwich South, Solihull, Oxford East etc - all are not included in the alliance, and not coincidentally have had good LD results in the past.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 07, 2019, 11:46:23 am
The journalist Lewis Goodall just did a good twitter thread (https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1192475588734390272) on this.

tl;dr without Labour involved, Remain Alliance strategic voting is a lot trickier.

It seems to me a clever tactic for the LD's might be to stand down 'for the Greens' in English seats where the Labour candidate is obviously better positioned to win. With the Green's lack of ground game, money, or incumbency, there's a decent chance many of the erstwhile Lib Dem voters would end up voting Labour anyway.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 07, 2019, 12:27:07 pm
The purpose of this alliance isn't really to win seats (aside from Brighton and some of the Tory-LD contests) - its to prevent Lib Dem activists and money from being funnelled into unwinnable seats and to make sure the Greens keep as many deposits as possible. You'll notice there hasn't been any stand-downs in Lab-LD contests, probably because they're well aware that a large number of Green voters next choice is Labour.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 07, 2019, 01:01:21 pm
Godsiff to stand as an independent at Hall Green doubtless on a Save Sparkbrook From Sodomy ticket, because we live in Hell.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: urutzizu on November 07, 2019, 01:07:25 pm
Godsiff to stand as an independent at Hall Green doubtless on a Save Sparkbrook From Sodomy ticket, because we live in Hell.

Whats his chances? Respect got 25% there back in 2005...


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 07, 2019, 01:22:12 pm
Godsiff to stand as an independent at Hall Green doubtless on a Save Sparkbrook From Sodomy ticket, because we live in Hell.

Whats his chances? Respect got 25% there back in 2005...

He isn't personally popular at all (he's a bloody awful lazy MP from absolutely any way you look at it: does no work in the House, does no work in his constituency...) so it would be nice to say 'none whatsoever', but that issue is extremely toxic. So first thing to do will be to see who the Labour candidate is before speculating further. Of course the issue is not 'live' in parts of the constituency, important not to ignore that.

He will be motivated to cross the 5% line as he's a mercenary toad - one of those retired trade unionists who treat being an MP as part of their pension package - and five hundred quid is five hundred quid.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 07, 2019, 02:02:36 pm


y i k e s


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Tintrlvr on November 07, 2019, 02:14:32 pm


y i k e s

Speaking of which, what's Salma Yaqoob up to these days? Is she going to run somewhere?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 07, 2019, 02:23:53 pm
Not in this election, no. She's been shortlisted for the Labour nomination for West Midlands mayor.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 07, 2019, 03:09:36 pm


I guess survation is releasing one  of these every day.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 07, 2019, 07:30:15 pm


I guess survation is releasing one  of these every day.

Was this one commissioned by anybody?

Because election spending restrictions have now kicked in, and polls cost a bit of money......


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 07, 2019, 07:55:05 pm

The Economist.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2019, 09:07:06 am
YouGov regional polls.  (https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=ge2019_regional_VI)I'm not sure if these are usual subsample breakdowns or individual polls for each region. In general, the trend is Tories up in North, Lib dems up in South.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 08, 2019, 09:20:20 am
They are aggregates from subsamples of pre-campaign polling - in other words, worthless.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 08, 2019, 11:02:15 am
https://order-order.com/2019/11/08/yougov-poll-11500-voters-puts-tories-14-ahead-labour/

()

Latest yougov poll with massive 11K plus respondents has a shift from LAB to LDEM

CON   36 (-)
LAB    22 (-3)
LDEM 19 (+2)
BXP   12 (+1)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 08, 2019, 11:44:24 am
Its not their "latest" poll, as mentioned above most of the data is literally weeks old.

(and why are you using Staines as a source anyway?)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 08, 2019, 12:03:27 pm
We do, however, now have an actual new poll. From Panelbase. And it reads thus: Con 40, Lab 30, LDem 15, BP 8, Greens 3

This, for the record, would equate to a 4pt swing from 2017.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 08, 2019, 12:11:44 pm
Its not their "latest" poll, as mentioned above most of the data is literally weeks old.

(and why are you using Staines as a source anyway?)

Ah .. thanks for pointing that out.  My mistake


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 08, 2019, 12:16:31 pm
We do, however, now have an actual new poll. From Panelbase. And it reads thus: Con 40, Lab 30, LDem 15, BP 8, Greens 3

This, for the record, would equate to a 4pt swing from 2017.

Basically static with what they found the previous week, too. Overall not great news for anyone but the Tories. Lab in the 30s is too low to prevent a good number of losses. LD at 15 won't make much progress on what they have now. BP taking only 8% is about half of what they ought to expect.

I do wonder if the Brexit Party is deliberately holding its fire until Farage's self-imposed deadline for a pact with Johnson (next Friday) expires, though. If so, and Farage spends the subsequent 4 weeks training both barrels on Johnson, there's the potential to shift the numbers quite significantly.


Its not their "latest" poll, as mentioned above most of the data is literally weeks old.

(and why are you using Staines as a source anyway?)

Ah .. thanks for pointing that out.  My mistake

No need to apologize. Journos who should know better and every Russian pornbot twitter account is spreading the poll like mad. Rather unfortunate testament to people's media savvy these days.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 08, 2019, 12:22:43 pm
We do, however, now have an actual new poll. From Panelbase. And it reads thus: Con 40, Lab 30, LDem 15, BP 8, Greens 3

This, for the record, would equate to a 4pt swing from 2017.

Labour and LibDems up 1 since a week ago, BxP down 1.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 08, 2019, 12:23:50 pm
I am wondering why the CON want to block the LDEM from being in the debates.  I would think the CON strategy should be to lower the LAB vote no matter how and what.  Even if the LAB vote does not go CON but goes to LDEM or BXP that is fine because if the LAB vote is down and down a lot, seats will show up for the CON.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2019, 12:28:03 pm
I am wondering why the CON want to block the LDEM from being in the debates.  I would think the CON strategy should be to lower the LAB vote no matter how and what.  Even if the LAB vote does not go CON but goes to LDEM or BXP that is fine because if the LAB vote is down and down a lot, seats will show up for the CON.

Yep, Con strategy should be to be throwing as many softballs and Swinson as possible. Sure, they may lose seats in the south when the oranges pick up steam, but it will more than pay off in the north. Basically the Harper strategy back when the NDP was a serious possibility: force Lib voters to pick NDP or Con, and more seats will pick Con. Swinson is no way as radical as the NDP except in the Brexit issue, so it's in the Tories interest to construct a dichotomy between their leave and the LD Remain, in an attempt to force Lab voters to pick a side.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 08, 2019, 12:39:18 pm
Such a strategy is fine, as long as it works. But there is certainly potential for it to misfire.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Lord Halifax on November 08, 2019, 12:56:24 pm
Such a strategy is fine, as long as it works. But there is certainly potential for it to misfire.

The Tories don't have many young voters and will be in trouble when the boomers die off. So establishing the LibDems as a credible alternative for centre-right voters would presumably be quite risky. A post-boomer two party system with Labour and the LibDems as the main parties and the Tories stuck in 3rd place with 20-23% of the vote must be their ultimate nightmare scenario.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: urutzizu on November 08, 2019, 01:05:20 pm
Such a strategy is fine, as long as it works. But there is certainly potential for it to misfire.

The Tories don't have many young voters and will be in trouble when the boomers die off.

I remember there was a debate about this point back in 2015 after the Tories won. There is quite a bit of evidence to suggest that at least in Britain people do generally become more conservative as they age. And considering that the UK is a aging society, perhaps the future is not so gloomy for the Conservatives..

https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-do-we-become-more-conservative-with-age-47910


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Cassius on November 08, 2019, 01:05:54 pm
The thing is though, every seat lost to the Lib Dems means that the Tories need to gain another seat from somewhere else to make up for it. At the moment, the Tories need to gain six seats  over their 2017 performance if they’re to get a working majority of just one seat (if we exclude the Speaker and a minimum of five abstentionist Shinners from the total Parliamentary tally), and that’s if they hold on to every single seat they currently possess, which seems unlikely. If we assume the Conservatives will lose a minimum of six seats, which may be being generous, in Scotland to the SNP, they’ll need twelve gains. There are plenty of Tory seats that are currently fairly vulnerable to the Lib Dems: Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnorshire (ignoring the change of allegiance resulting from the by election), Cheltenham and St Ives are some examples of seats where the Lib Dems were competitive in the last election. Moreover, whilst constituency polling should always be treated with a Carthaginian field full of salt, if those polls from Wokingham, Esher and South Cambridgeshire are on the money then there clearly previously safe Tory seats that the Lib Dems have a chance of snatching as well as their traditional marginals.

So, say the Tories lose ten to fifteen seats  to the Lib Dems (net of a potential Tory gain in North Norfolk), they’re going to have to find around twenty five gains from Labour (because they’re not making gains from the SNP, Plaid or the Greens at this election) in order to win a majority of one. Now I know there’s a meme about how the Tories are going to win scores of ‘northern’ (which under this particular definition seems to be any Labour seat north of Oxford and west of Bristol) seats from Labour as hardy white workin’ class battlers defect to the party in droves over Labour’s supposed perfidy re the EU referendum; the thing is, I’ll believe it when I see it. Media pundits and psephologists have been predicting this for years, either in the form of Tory or, earlier on, UKIP gains, and thus far it has barely transpired. The Tories did get enormous swings in many traditionally Labour constituencies last time round, but even then, in the election where they won more votes than in any since 1983, they still came up short, often by comfortable margins (as I understand it they only made six gains from Labour, at least two of which were partially helped by extremely lacklustre Labour incumbents).

Now, if the current state of the polls does hold and Labour do lose 10% of the vote nationwide, whilst the Tories hold at about 40%, then the psephologists dream of realigning British politics along American lines might, finally, come true. But that cannot be counted upon, and I think even in that scenario a lot of traditional Welsh, Midland and Northern Labour seats might prove stickier than one would imagine. This of course ignores the possibility that the Tories might lose additional seats to Labour (Chingford for instance), even if the result ends up being Tories at 40, Labour at 30. Therefore, if the Tories want to win a majority, it’s vital that they minimise their losses to the Lib Dems, in order to make a majority less reliant upon uncertain gains in Labour heartlands. This can best be done by a mixture of denying Swinson publicity and kicking the crap out of her and her party every time her tin-whistle of a voice box does manage to break through.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Lord Halifax on November 08, 2019, 01:16:08 pm
Now I know there’s a meme about how the Tories are going to win scores of ‘northern’ (which under this particular definition seems to be any Labour seat north of Oxford and west of Bristol)

:D


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 08, 2019, 01:25:32 pm
Such a strategy is fine, as long as it works. But there is certainly potential for it to misfire.

The Tories don't have many young voters and will be in trouble when the boomers die off.

I remember there was a debate about this point back in 2015 after the Tories won. There is quite a bit of evidence to suggest that at least in Britain people do generally become more conservative as they age. And considering that the UK is a aging society, perhaps the future is not so gloomy for the Conservatives..

https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-do-we-become-more-conservative-with-age-47910

But at present the Tories are *unusually* reliant on older voters, and there are at least some reasons to think the present extreme pro-Tory lean of "boomers" is actually down to specific non-replicable factors which won't be entirely matched in the future simply by the next generations becoming more right wing as they age.

For a start the print media in this country (massively pro-Tory) likely has a limited shelf life in its present form.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 08, 2019, 01:38:03 pm
It is pretty clear that unless they change something major and fairly soon* that we will start to see, and maybe this will even occur soon as in a decade, a major structural fall in Conservative support; something akin to the declines suffered by the Cold War People's Parties in German-speaking countries. Or, for that matter, similar to the decline in turnouts seen here as the Wartime Generation started to depart in the 1990s.

It is true that people become more conservative as they grow older, but this does not mean that they will automatically become more likely to vote for the Conservative Party. This was not the case with earlier generations, particularly. It has been with older people recently for very specific material factors which cannot and will not be replicated: teachers will not be retiring to golden handshakes and final salary pensions, for instance. That's before we consider the property issues.

Of course this will play no role in the present election.

*Which can hardly be ruled out: this is British politics.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 08, 2019, 01:54:55 pm

[snip]

This can best be done by a mixture of denying Swinson publicity and kicking the crap out of her and her party every time her tin-whistle of a voice box does manage to break through.

Rude.

It is pretty clear that unless they change something major and fairly soon* that we will start to see, and maybe this will even occur soon as in a decade, a major structural fall in Conservative support; something akin to the declines suffered by the Cold War People's Parties in German-speaking countries. Or, for that matter, similar to the decline in turnouts seen here as the Wartime Generation started to depart in the 1990s.

It is true that people become more conservative as they grow older, but this does not mean that they will automatically become more likely to vote for the Conservative Party. This was not the case with earlier generations, particularly. It has been with older people recently for very specific material factors which cannot and will not be replicated: teachers will not be retiring to golden handshakes and final salary pensions, for instance. That's before we consider the property issues.

Of course this will play no role in the present election.

*Which can hardly be ruled out: this is British politics.

Maaaaybe. The material reasons you allude to - fraying social services, inability to get out of (student) debt or to save or get on the property ladder - are already weighing pretty heavily on most every voter under 40. For those who have an elderly parent to care for, the Tories' NHS policy for the past 10 years has been a double whammy. I can see the Tories coming up conspicuously, and fatally, short on election day not because of any one major factor but because of a widespread anemia in their <40 vote. Sort of like the generational equivalent of the Dems 2016 white/rural vote in the Midwest.   


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 08, 2019, 01:55:58 pm
The standoff over the Labour selection in Bassetlaw seems to have resolved: it is probably to Labour's luck that this row won't have been occupying minds all that much locally as half the constituency is presently under water.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Unbred on November 08, 2019, 02:15:12 pm
If you were to go off of current polling, Conservatives will pick up a bunch of seats, Labour will be crushed, Brexit Party might pick up a couple seats, and Liberal Democrats will win a bunch of seats too.

Current polling. Of course, the same thing was said about the general election in 2017. We all know how that ended.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 08, 2019, 02:16:07 pm
There will always be a political left and a political right, if one tent on one side of the gap vanishes another takes it's place. That is the law of competitive politics. People have been predicting since the 70s that left-leaning strength with the youth with transform into a permanent advantage in 'X' country. Well, turns out old people are a renewable resource.

But how are old people a renewable resource? Two ways. The first is turnout, when you are younger you are more likely to vote if you are an activist. The self-constructed barriers to entry are higher when one is 18 than when one is 60. This leads to a predictable turnout curve in every non-mandatory election anywhere, the youth will always vote less then the eldarly, and the sample of the youth that is voting are those with a higher political interest. As one gets older, the barriers lower and the 'quiet' voters enter the pool, allowing parties to survive with only minimal reference to the activist part. The second way is that ideologies and issues change, and parties follow their voters. If the general electorate has reached a consensus on a issue, then parties ride or die. New issues rise up, the parties battle over them, and when victory occurs the other convert. When one 'greys' the issues that you fought for in your youth will no longer drive the great battles of govt, and new issues that you always held opinions on may align said voter to another party.

For example, one can make the argument that Brexit is this type of issue. Tories can't win long term on stuff like the NHS, May got eviscerated when she tried that platform last time. But the EU and Brexit have been long term issues and those entering the 'grey-zone' are happy to fight for it. I'll make a  bet now that Boris's tory platform will be relatively moderate compared to those  past, except the most frequent keyword will be Brexit. In part this is because  of his ideological flexibility, in part because the 'greys' he wants to win from post-industrial labour would be put off if he did anything other than carry the brexit flag. In 20 years, theres a good chance  Brexit won't be the big issue, something new will come up for the voters to fight over. That's life.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: (CT) The Free North on November 08, 2019, 02:30:59 pm
What sort of result for Labour would force Corbyn out? Or is his support too solid at this point among party loyalists to be harmed by one poor election?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 08, 2019, 03:33:39 pm
2017 wasn't a win, but it wasn't a bad election for Labour (as far as not winning it goes): they gained seats and votes, they severely hampered their principal opponents, defied expectations all around.

A 2019 loss would be something much more unambiguous. Corbyn would likely not be able to last until the subsequent election. The flip side of this, of course, is that anything but a total loss (i.e. Tory majority) likely makes him PM.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 08, 2019, 03:39:34 pm
Corbyn is 70; he's probably gone by 2024 regardless. Whether he becomes PM in a hung Parliament remains to be seen - convention is that the incumbent PM stays on until he resigns or is ousted via losing a confidence vote.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Tintrlvr on November 08, 2019, 03:47:20 pm
2017 wasn't a win, but it wasn't a bad election for Labour (as far as not winning it goes): they gained seats and votes, they severely hampered their principal opponents, defied expectations all around.

A 2019 loss would be something much more unambiguous. Corbyn would likely not be able to last until the subsequent election. The flip side of this, of course, is that anything but a total loss (i.e. Tory majority) likely makes him PM.

Tough call on the bold. If the Tories are larger than Labour+SNP, and even if they're smaller than Labour+SNP but Labour+SNP are far short of a majority, I think another election in early 2020 is at least as likely as, or maybe more likely than, PM Corbyn.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 08, 2019, 04:15:21 pm
Fair point. There's a narrow window where the Tories are not a majority, but also so much larger than Labour that Labour can't form a majority (my guess is 310-320 seats). In that case, yes another election is likely. If Lab+SNP+LD is >330 then I think it'll be a *very shaky* minority government for 9 months or so in order to hold a referendum.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: vileplume on November 08, 2019, 06:14:39 pm
It is pretty clear that unless they change something major and fairly soon* that we will start to see, and maybe this will even occur soon as in a decade, a major structural fall in Conservative support; something akin to the declines suffered by the Cold War People's Parties in German-speaking countries. Or, for that matter, similar to the decline in turnouts seen here as the Wartime Generation started to depart in the 1990s.

It is true that people become more conservative as they grow older, but this does not mean that they will automatically become more likely to vote for the Conservative Party. This was not the case with earlier generations, particularly. It has been with older people recently for very specific material factors which cannot and will not be replicated: teachers will not be retiring to golden handshakes and final salary pensions, for instance. That's before we consider the property issues.

Of course this will play no role in the present election.

*Which can hardly be ruled out: this is British politics.

Great post!

Whilst it at present looks likely the Tories will win this election (of course that could change) sooner or later they will lose power for the simple reason that the electorate will be sick of them after a decade+ in power and that's before we even consider any economic downturns that may be on the horizon. When they do lose I believe it will likely usher in a significant period of left rule, probably led by someone more competent and likeable than Corbyn, in which the Tories are confined to an infighting irrelevance whilst the left push through transformational change (e.g. how Labour was in the 80s when the right was in its ascendancy).

Eventually the Tories will have to come up with a way to appeal to Millennial and Gen Z voters (and indeed ethnic minority voters) and if they do they will eventually return to power when Labour has run its course, probably led by a Blair-esque centrist looking person. If they fail to do this however they risk a party like the Lib Dems eclipsing them as the major party of the centre-right (the Lib Dems do appear to be moving in the direction of becoming the party of centre-right metropolitans with their newfound strength in Wimbledon, Putney, Chelsea, Wokingham, Esher etc.)

Of course we could get Proportional Representation by then which would completely realign the political landscape in ways that would be very difficult to predict.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Lord Halifax on November 08, 2019, 08:21:32 pm
There will always be a political left and a political right, if one tent on one side of the gap vanishes another takes it's place. That is the law of competitive politics. People have been predicting since the 70s that left-leaning strength with the youth with transform into a permanent advantage in 'X' country. Well, turns out old people are a renewable resource.

Not sure why you felt the need to write these platitudes as no one argued the left would dominate permanently.

The point is that the main centre-right party in the UK doesn't have to be particularly right wing or even Conservative, plenty of European countries have a fairly centrist party as their main centre-right party, and that generational change could undermine the Tories and either open the door for the LibDems or a situation where different centre-right parties dominate in different regions. If they become the third largest party they would struggle to get back. It will probably be hard for the Tories to rebrand enough (and fast enough) to appeal to younger generations in the post-boomer era.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Deranged California Suburbanite on November 08, 2019, 11:55:37 pm
Just a thought that I had this afternoon:

In the recent Canadian election in Newfoundland, the Liberals lost something like 20%, and only lost one (of seven) seats. The Tories gained most of that, with the NDP gaining only two percent or so. However, the NDP gained the one seat that the Liberals lost. Could we see something like that in some places here? Ie, Labour loses a lot in the popular vote, but not many seats?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 09, 2019, 02:37:15 am
That's a good question! It's certainly plausible, both for the Tory and Labour vote. There's a lot of huge majorities for Labour up north and in central London. The Tories get huge majorities in the rural and suburban south and east, too. Either of these areas could see huge drops in votes for the dominant party but very few seats change hands, and which seats did flip would depend on the differential as much as the drop, i.e. did the Tories' vote drop more than Labour's did, or vice versa.

If there was a big drop for one of the parties in their heartland, however, it would probably correlate to a drop in scores of marginal seats, too. The result would likely be a landslide for the Tories or an unexpected majority for Labour.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Hnv1 on November 09, 2019, 07:54:21 am
YouGov Scotland poll is dire for Labour, now fourth behind the Nats Tories and LibDem. oh how the mighty have fallen


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 09, 2019, 08:06:42 am
YouGov Scotland poll is dire for Labour, now fourth behind the Nats Tories and LibDem. oh how the mighty have fallen

My understanding is that it was a subsample ergo it has less significance than a Yougov poll for Scotland


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 09, 2019, 08:17:46 am
Subsamples mostly from weeks ago.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Anomalocaris🌹 on November 09, 2019, 11:45:28 am
If you were to go off of current polling, Conservatives will pick up a bunch of seats, Labour will be crushed, Brexit Party might pick up a couple seats, and Liberal Democrats will win a bunch of seats too.

Current polling. Of course, the same thing was said about the general election in 2017. We all know how that ended.

Thank you for the insight, brother. Prayer Emoji.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 09, 2019, 01:42:22 pm
YouGov Scotland poll is dire for Labour, now fourth behind the Nats Tories and LibDem. oh how the mighty have fallen

My understanding is that it was a subsample ergo it has less significance than a Yougov poll for Scotland

It was a full poll. But yes it's old.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 09, 2019, 01:52:22 pm
Let's just say that today was the first time I and probably many other people have heard of Dan Carden, so he didn't exactly make a good first impression.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: adma on November 09, 2019, 02:14:49 pm
There will always be a political left and a political right, if one tent on one side of the gap vanishes another takes it's place. That is the law of competitive politics. People have been predicting since the 70s that left-leaning strength with the youth with transform into a permanent advantage in 'X' country. Well, turns out old people are a renewable resource.

Not sure why you felt the need to write these platitudes as no one argued the left would dominate permanently.

The point is that the main centre-right party in the UK doesn't have to be particularly right wing or even Conservative, plenty of European countries have a fairly centrist party as their main centre-right party, and that generational change could undermine the Tories and either open the door for the LibDems or a situation where different centre-right parties dominate in different regions. If they become the third largest party they would struggle to get back. It will probably be hard for the Tories to rebrand enough (and fast enough) to appeal to younger generations in the post-boomer era.

Macron in France can be viewed as a test case for such "post-boomer middle" dynamics.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 09, 2019, 02:54:21 pm
There will always be a political left and a political right, if one tent on one side of the gap vanishes another takes it's place. That is the law of competitive politics. People have been predicting since the 70s that left-leaning strength with the youth with transform into a permanent advantage in 'X' country. Well, turns out old people are a renewable resource.

Not sure why you felt the need to write these platitudes as no one argued the left would dominate permanently.

The point is that the main centre-right party in the UK doesn't have to be particularly right wing or even Conservative, plenty of European countries have a fairly centrist party as their main centre-right party, and that generational change could undermine the Tories and either open the door for the LibDems or a situation where different centre-right parties dominate in different regions. If they become the third largest party they would struggle to get back. It will probably be hard for the Tories to rebrand enough (and fast enough) to appeal to younger generations in the post-boomer era.

Macron in France can be viewed as a test case for such "post-boomer middle" dynamics.

Then it's just more of the same old neoliberal right.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 09, 2019, 03:09:09 pm


Guess it's time for the regularly scheduled  weekend poll drop. Overall, Opinium's numbers and changes match the general trend from last week: Lab up a bit, Lib-Dems down a bit, but everyone's overall rather stable except Brexit. Brexit keeps falling and I wouldn't be surprised if they wind up a zombie party.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 09, 2019, 03:13:29 pm
I'd hold off on that last prediction for another couple of weeks. If we are to believe Farage is genuinely trying to broker a Tory/BP pact, he has deliberately held his fire for the time being. Once the registration deadline, and the possibility of a formal pact, passes next Friday the Brexit Party may start to register much more.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: adma on November 09, 2019, 04:34:53 pm
There will always be a political left and a political right, if one tent on one side of the gap vanishes another takes it's place. That is the law of competitive politics. People have been predicting since the 70s that left-leaning strength with the youth with transform into a permanent advantage in 'X' country. Well, turns out old people are a renewable resource.

Not sure why you felt the need to write these platitudes as no one argued the left would dominate permanently.

The point is that the main centre-right party in the UK doesn't have to be particularly right wing or even Conservative, plenty of European countries have a fairly centrist party as their main centre-right party, and that generational change could undermine the Tories and either open the door for the LibDems or a situation where different centre-right parties dominate in different regions. If they become the third largest party they would struggle to get back. It will probably be hard for the Tories to rebrand enough (and fast enough) to appeal to younger generations in the post-boomer era.

Macron in France can be viewed as a test case for such "post-boomer middle" dynamics.

Then it's just more of the same old neoliberal right.

No it isn't; it's the *new* neoliberal right!  If you get my drift.  (Also cf Justin Trudeau)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: parochial boy on November 09, 2019, 05:08:38 pm
France is a bit different in that its party system is weaker to begin with - ie formerly major players like the Radicals, UDF or even SFIO could dissapear off the face of the earth. In the UK, the Liberals have been almost dead on a couple of occasions, but always slithered back into existence. In that respect, no matter what, I think a future period of opposition; adjustment to new, ehm, realities; the old governing instruments and a degree of the electorate's short memories will mean the Tories will come back and win future elections. The bigger structural worry for the Conservative party is probably the ageing and declining activist base; coupled with the risk it gets tken over by hard right entryists.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 09, 2019, 05:08:50 pm
There will always be a political left and a political right, if one tent on one side of the gap vanishes another takes it's place. That is the law of competitive politics. People have been predicting since the 70s that left-leaning strength with the youth with transform into a permanent advantage in 'X' country. Well, turns out old people are a renewable resource.

Not sure why you felt the need to write these platitudes as no one argued the left would dominate permanently.

The point is that the main centre-right party in the UK doesn't have to be particularly right wing or even Conservative, plenty of European countries have a fairly centrist party as their main centre-right party, and that generational change could undermine the Tories and either open the door for the LibDems or a situation where different centre-right parties dominate in different regions. If they become the third largest party they would struggle to get back. It will probably be hard for the Tories to rebrand enough (and fast enough) to appeal to younger generations in the post-boomer era.

Macron in France can be viewed as a test case for such "post-boomer middle" dynamics.

Then it's just more of the same old neoliberal right.

No it isn't; it's the *new* neoliberal right!  If you get my drift.  (Also cf Justin Trudeau)

The closing line of a certain song by the Who comes to mind...


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 09, 2019, 05:29:16 pm
"Oh tell me who are you, you, you, ah you?"


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 09, 2019, 07:30:40 pm
Let's just say that today was the first time I and probably many other people have heard of Dan Carden, so he didn't exactly make a good first impression.

What has been alleged very likely didn't happen.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Annatar on November 09, 2019, 11:14:04 pm
It is pretty clear that unless they change something major and fairly soon* that we will start to see, and maybe this will even occur soon as in a decade, a major structural fall in Conservative support; something akin to the declines suffered by the Cold War People's Parties in German-speaking countries. Or, for that matter, similar to the decline in turnouts seen here as the Wartime Generation started to depart in the 1990s.

It is true that people become more conservative as they grow older, but this does not mean that they will automatically become more likely to vote for the Conservative Party. This was not the case with earlier generations, particularly. It has been with older people recently for very specific material factors which cannot and will not be replicated: teachers will not be retiring to golden handshakes and final salary pensions, for instance. That's before we consider the property issues.

Of course this will play no role in the present election.

*Which can hardly be ruled out: this is British politics.

Great post!

Whilst it at present looks likely the Tories will win this election (of course that could change) sooner or later they will lose power for the simple reason that the electorate will be sick of them after a decade+ in power and that's before we even consider any economic downturns that may be on the horizon. When they do lose I believe it will likely usher in a significant period of left rule, probably led by someone more competent and likeable than Corbyn, in which the Tories are confined to an infighting irrelevance whilst the left push through transformational change (e.g. how Labour was in the 80s when the right was in its ascendancy).

Eventually the Tories will have to come up with a way to appeal to Millennial and Gen Z voters (and indeed ethnic minority voters) and if they do they will eventually return to power when Labour has run its course, probably led by a Blair-esque centrist looking person. If they fail to do this however they risk a party like the Lib Dems eclipsing them as the major party of the centre-right (the Lib Dems do appear to be moving in the direction of becoming the party of centre-right metropolitans with their newfound strength in Wimbledon, Putney, Chelsea, Wokingham, Esher etc.)

Of course we could get Proportional Representation by then which would completely realign the political landscape in ways that would be very difficult to predict.

The age distribution isn't simply young vs old though, Conservatives are winning voters from around the age of 45 onward, someone who is 45 will be voting for another 40 years on average, 50 year olds are on average voting pretty Conservative and they will be voting for around 35 more years. Conservatives can rely on voters in their 40's and 50's for decades to come.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 10, 2019, 05:32:23 am
Yes but its a much narrower Tory lead in the 45-65 age bracket, and one that is subject to change - this group (my age group as it happens) is also much more "swingy" than the boomers.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 10, 2019, 11:07:02 am
Let's just say that today was the first time I and probably many other people have heard of Dan Carden, so he didn't exactly make a good first impression.

What has been alleged very likely didn't happen.

On the one hand there are reasons to raise eyebrows at the source and other people on the trip have denied the story. On the other, the MPs in question are known lushes. The denials from them are funny: they clearly can't remember a thing about the journey.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: EastAnglianLefty on November 10, 2019, 12:36:56 pm
YouGov Scotland poll is dire for Labour, now fourth behind the Nats Tories and LibDem. oh how the mighty have fallen

My understanding is that it was a subsample ergo it has less significance than a Yougov poll for Scotland

It's also worth noting that the Labour gains in Scotland were completely unheralded in 2017 - eg some of the media seriously tried to portray Glasgow East as a Tory vs. SNP duel. It's not yet clear whether this was simply a more extreme example of having missed the Labour surge, or whether there's a specific issue with Scottish polling.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Heat on November 10, 2019, 03:43:57 pm
YouGov Scotland poll is dire for Labour, now fourth behind the Nats Tories and LibDem. oh how the mighty have fallen

My understanding is that it was a subsample ergo it has less significance than a Yougov poll for Scotland

It's also worth noting that the Labour gains in Scotland were completely unheralded in 2017 - eg some of the media seriously tried to portray Glasgow East as a Tory vs. SNP duel. It's not yet clear whether this was simply a more extreme example of having missed the Labour surge, or whether there's a specific issue with Scottish polling.
Scottish polling at the time showed Labour rising to 25% or even above, it's just the narrative was set by the polls right after the election call that showed Labour in the teens so nobody really picked up on it at the time, and all the polling very much overestimated the SNP.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 10, 2019, 04:35:44 pm
Keith Vaz has just lost the Keith Vaz game.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 10, 2019, 04:42:21 pm
Scotland post-indyref has seen an unusual level of tactical voting between the Unionists, which produces the massive 20% swings that have become normal if the geographic territory in question was last contested in 2015/16. Now the tactical voting is not absolute, but it's more then what goes on to the south. Since the SNP are pushing IndyRef2 this time much harder, perhaps tactical voting will be even more  strategic. Likely won't benefit the tories, their still losing seats, but maybe the others will do decently.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 10, 2019, 05:42:46 pm
YouGov Scotland poll is dire for Labour, now fourth behind the Nats Tories and LibDem. oh how the mighty have fallen

My understanding is that it was a subsample ergo it has less significance than a Yougov poll for Scotland

It's also worth noting that the Labour gains in Scotland were completely unheralded in 2017 - eg some of the media seriously tried to portray Glasgow East as a Tory vs. SNP duel. It's not yet clear whether this was simply a more extreme example of having missed the Labour surge, or whether there's a specific issue with Scottish polling.
Scottish polling at the time showed Labour rising to 25% or even above, it's just the narrative was set by the polls right after the election call that showed Labour in the teens so nobody really picked up on it at the time, and all the polling very much overestimated the SNP.

Low teens, they actually doubled their score from that on the day.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 11, 2019, 07:17:10 am
Farage Says He Won't Contest 317 CON seats.  Not sure if this is good news for CON as a lot of BXP votes might flow to LAB.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 11, 2019, 07:39:34 am
Farage Says He Won't Contest 317 CON seats.  Not sure if this is good news for CON as a lot of BXP votes might flow to LAB.

Agreed, but not for the reason you state. The sorts of votes the BXP draws in seats already held by Labour are votes that wouldn't have voted for Labour in the first place. Meanwhile, the sorts of votes the BXP draws in seats already held by Tories are votes that are not crucial to the swing that the Lib Dems/SNP/PC or even Lab would need to take them.

If nothing else this definitively shows what a mendacious empty vessel Farage is and always has been.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 11, 2019, 08:00:27 am
A rather strange decision.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: sopojarwo on November 11, 2019, 08:03:04 am
Might this work in Labour's favour? Spilt the leave vote in seats they need to keep


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 11, 2019, 08:10:28 am
Might this work in Labour's favour? Spilt the leave vote in seats they need to keep


It might have a beneficial effect to the LibDems in parts of the West Country as well, oddly.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Umengus on November 11, 2019, 08:16:09 am
good move in my opinion:

-if conservatives won in 2017, the should win again in 2019.
-in lab constituencies, the goal is to impeach some leave voters to vote for labour and so conservatives can win the seat due to the weaked labour result.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 11, 2019, 08:26:40 am
It gives credence to the line that BxP is simply a Tory party reserve squad.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: EastAnglianLefty on November 11, 2019, 08:31:55 am
BXP support has been on a pretty clear downward trend anyway and it's likely they'd have been below 5% by polling day anyway. This may increase the chance that they become totally irrelevant in all but a handful of seats, as was the case in 2017.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 11, 2019, 08:39:18 am
BXP support has been on a pretty clear downward trend anyway and it's likely they'd have been below 5% by polling day anyway

They might plausibly have seen the campaign as a chance to change that. But it appears not.

Could this actually cause a few more UKIP candidates to appear in Tory held seats?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Umengus on November 11, 2019, 08:41:03 am
It gives credence to the line that BxP is simply a Tory party reserve squad.

or just a party wich wants a brexit.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 11, 2019, 08:43:22 am
It gives credence to the line that BxP is simply a Tory party reserve squad.

or just a party wich wants a brexit.

Until literally days ago, its line was that Johnson wasn't really offering that.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 11, 2019, 08:48:54 am
-in lab constituencies, the goal is to impeach some leave voters to vote for labour and so conservatives can win the seat due to the weaked labour result.

Not how things actually work, though...


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 11, 2019, 08:49:39 am
BXP support has been on a pretty clear downward trend anyway and it's likely they'd have been below 5% by polling day anyway. This may increase the chance that they become totally irrelevant in all but a handful of seats, as was the case in 2017.

Yes, there's the possibility that the main effect of this will just be self-sabotage.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: EastAnglianLefty on November 11, 2019, 08:54:45 am
Farage is famously not actually particularly good at the hard graft of electioneering, he's very much a front man. On the rare occasions UKIP ran a competent campaign, it wasn't down to him. So his absolute authority over BXP is unlikely to make it as effective as it could be.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 11, 2019, 09:03:22 am
It gives credence to the line that BxP is simply a Tory party reserve squad.

I think this is where this will hurt CON.  It will most likely encourage Remain tactical voting.  Ideally BXP run dummy candidates in Remain areas so Leave voters know who to vote for and run strong candidates on LAB Leave districts to eat into the LAB Leave vote.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 11, 2019, 09:35:33 am
It also seems some BxP people due to stand in Tory seats had no knowledge of this decision and are not happy about it. A few might well take the UKIP label or stand as some sort of Indy.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Umengus on November 11, 2019, 09:42:34 am
-in lab constituencies, the goal is to impeach some leave voters to vote for labour and so conservatives can win the seat due to the weaked labour result.

Not how things actually work, though...

we will see but it's clear for me that it's a good news for conservatives in the conservative seats.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 11, 2019, 09:49:30 am
https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/group_b.6b9db4dc-d1df-4c9d-b9ab-c9a136a91f1e/uk-general-election-seats-markets

Sporting Index market for seats saw an increase of around 15 seats for CON on the Farage/BXP news.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: urutzizu on November 11, 2019, 09:52:37 am
It also seems some BxP people due to stand in Tory seats had no knowledge of this decision and are not happy about it.

Indeed. To quote the (former) Brexit Party Candidate in Crawley:


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 11, 2019, 09:59:58 am
https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/group_b.6b9db4dc-d1df-4c9d-b9ab-c9a136a91f1e/uk-general-election-seats-markets

Sporting Index market for seats saw an increase of around 15 seats for CON on the Farage/BXP news.

The sort of knee jerk reaction I expected.

Already seen takes like "Tories will hold all their Scottish seats now" even though (just like UKIP in their heyday) BxP always polled much less well in Scotland than England/Wales anyway.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 11, 2019, 10:44:39 am
It also seems some BxP people due to stand in Tory seats had no knowledge of this decision and are not happy about it.

Indeed. To quote the (former) Brexit Party Candidate in Crawley:


Technically, of course, there's no reason why such an aggrieved provisional candidate cannot run as an independent, if they choose.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Anomalocaris🌹 on November 11, 2019, 11:08:48 am
It also seems some BxP people due to stand in Tory seats had no knowledge of this decision and are not happy about it.

Indeed. To quote the (former) Brexit Party Candidate in Crawley:


...my man is a Scientologist!!!


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Velasco on November 11, 2019, 11:19:17 am
The Brexit Party logo is so graphic...


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 11, 2019, 11:29:44 am
Good!  The Brexit stand down should take a lot of the pressure of Tories in the southeast and southwest.

Sorry folks there is not going to be a hung Parliament. 

The antisemitic charges will put a damper on any Corbyn recovery this time. 


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 11, 2019, 11:58:28 am
New poll from ComRes:

Tory: 36%
Labour: 29%
Lib Dem: 17%
Brexit: 11%

Given today's events, I think this tweet is helpful for interpretation:



A straight factoring in on that ratio would give something like 40/31/17. To be clear: doing this would be extremely simplistic and any conclusions you would like to draw from such a calculation would be faulty.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: MillennialModerate on November 11, 2019, 01:48:14 pm
As a political anomaly - a center left person who would be a Anti-Corbyn/Pro-Blair Labour/Leave voter in the UK and one who would have SUPPORTED Farage. I now find him to be a fraud. Not standing AND not contesting the whole nation is weak. How are you going to accomplish “Change Politics for Good” when you only send a message to half the establishment. He could’ve done great things for the UK by putting both the Torres and Labour on notice - instead he chickened out.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Cassius on November 11, 2019, 01:57:37 pm
As a political anomaly - a center left person who would be a Anti-Corbyn/Pro-Blair Labour/Leave voter in the UK and one who would have SUPPORTED Farage. I now find him to be a fraud. Not standing AND not contesting the whole nation is weak. How are you going to accomplish “Change Politics for Good” when you only send a message to half the establishment. He could’ve done great things for the UK by putting both the Torres and Labour on notice - instead he chickened out.

I think Nigel Farage is largely in politics for the craic and to keep himself in beer these days, so I wouldn’t have placed much faith in him to begin with. On the other hand, deciding to stand down against the Tories is probably among the more principled acts Farage has committed in recent years, given that it doesn’t do much for his career but nonetheless helps the Tories a bit in the election, making it more likely the UK will leave the EU in one form or another (which is supposed to be Farage’s main aim in politics).


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 11, 2019, 02:44:33 pm
Yeah, Farage has probably sunk his party's chance of having any relevance in the future. Good riddance.

This probably marginally helps Tories, but I can see it triggering consolidation of the Remain vote toward Labour (which we're already seeing some evidence for) so let's see where things go from there.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 11, 2019, 02:49:53 pm
I can see it triggering consolidation of the Remain vote toward Labour (which we're already seeing some evidence for) so let's see where things go from there.

Why do you think this? Labour, despite what Corbynites would have us believe, still don't have any credibility on Brexit. The Lib Dem polling slide after the calling of the election was only a few points, was always inevitable once a campaign began and has since stalled.

For what feels like the 400th time, Labour are not a remain party

Besides, the Lib Dems will happily use this in every election leaflet and broadcast from now until December 12th in order to bring Tory remainers over to their side, so if anything, their share of the remainer vote will go up because of it.

Fwiw, I don't think this will change much except at the margins in a few Brexity & Lab held marginals where the Lib Dems were already mostly irrelevant.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 11, 2019, 02:54:45 pm
Anyone who's paying attention can see that, in most constituencies, a vote for Labour is their best bet to stop Brexit. That doesn't mean that's how they'll vote, of course. This is the last election I'd ever hazard a prediction for at this point. But I'm at least hoping they will.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 11, 2019, 03:02:12 pm
Best way to have stopped Brexit would have been to vote Labour in 2015. That was the most important election of our times, everything else just follows the ghastly course it set. Oh well.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 11, 2019, 03:13:01 pm
BXP support has been on a pretty clear downward trend anyway and it's likely they'd have been below 5% by polling day anyway

They might plausibly have seen the campaign as a chance to change that. But it appears not.

Could this actually cause a few more UKIP candidates to appear in Tory held seats?

Remember it's £500 a seat just on the deposit.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 11, 2019, 03:14:00 pm
For what its worth, I think people seriously underestimate how badly Labour have pissed off much of their remainer voting bloc from 2017 and to assume that they will flock back between now and election day at the sight of Boris is a dubious assumption. The problem for the Lib Dems of course is that these people are, electorally speaking, mainly irrelevant, being concentrated in safe Labour seats where the majorities will no doubt fall by a decent amount but nothing like enough to put the seats in danger (a good example is my own seat), but Labour thinking that the same arguments they used in 2017 are going to work this time after the last 2 and a half years has the potential to end badly for them.

Having said that,

Best way to have stopped Brexit would have been to vote Labour in 2015. That was the most important election of our times, everything else just follows the ghastly course it set. Oh well.

This is the correct answer


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 11, 2019, 03:14:17 pm
I can see it triggering consolidation of the Remain vote toward Labour (which we're already seeing some evidence for) so let's see where things go from there.

Why do you think this? Labour, despite what Corbynites would have us believe, still don't have any credibility on Brexit. The Lib Dem polling slide after the calling of the election was only a few points, was always inevitable once a campaign began and has since stalled.

For what feels like the 400th time, Labour are not a remain party

Besides, the Lib Dems will happily use this in every election leaflet and broadcast from now until December 12th in order to bring Tory remainers over to their side, so if anything, their share of the remainer vote will go up because of it.

Fwiw, I don't think this will change much except at the margins in a few Brexity & Lab held marginals where the Lib Dems were already mostly irrelevant.

Labour is offering a second referendum though. With Labour you get either a soft Brexit or no Brexit at all, both are clearly superior to if Boris wins a majority which would guarantee a hard Brexit. Labour isn't perfect but they're clearly better than the Tories on Brexit (and overall too).


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 11, 2019, 03:18:04 pm
I can see it triggering consolidation of the Remain vote toward Labour (which we're already seeing some evidence for) so let's see where things go from there.

Why do you think this? Labour, despite what Corbynites would have us believe, still don't have any credibility on Brexit. The Lib Dem polling slide after the calling of the election was only a few points, was always inevitable once a campaign began and has since stalled.

For what feels like the 400th time, Labour are not a remain party

Besides, the Lib Dems will happily use this in every election leaflet and broadcast from now until December 12th in order to bring Tory remainers over to their side, so if anything, their share of the remainer vote will go up because of it.

Fwiw, I don't think this will change much except at the margins in a few Brexity & Lab held marginals where the Lib Dems were already mostly irrelevant.

Labour is offering a second referendum though. With Labour you get either a soft Brexit or no Brexit at all, both are clearly superior to if Boris wins a majority which would guarantee a hard Brexit. Labour isn't perfect but they're clearly better than the Tories on Brexit (and overall too).

I can't speak for anyone else but I don't trust that Labour will give the second referendum that they offer and even if I did, its too little too late. I also don't believe a Corbyn Brexit would be any softer than a Boris one. Again, this is just me and I'd probably advise against extrapolating this to a wider voting bloc - I imagine there are a near-infinite range of opinions on this among remainer voters.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 11, 2019, 03:20:59 pm
Best way to have stopped Brexit would have been to vote Labour in 2015. That was the most important election of our times, everything else just follows the ghastly course it set. Oh well.

I did. I campaigned on the doorstep too, on a trip in Thurrock where the TV actor Shaun Dooley was one of the people bussed in to the marginal seat.

Labour came third. Then Ed Miliband decided to throw open the leadership ballot to every Johnny and Jenny come lately that could pony up a sum less than what I spent on my lunch today instead of limiting it to actual members.

So we got Corbyn. Who managed to make multiple unforced errors in week one. Since then Labour supporters have spent a huge amount of time moaning about media coverage and very little working out a viable way of dealing with it.

Then there's been antisemitism. I quit partly because it was taking longer than a murder case from arrest to conviction does to deal with Ken Livingstone and things have gotten worse since then.

A Conservative majority is a realistic possibility here and to be honest, a heavy loss might be what Labour needs to bring some sense back into its politics. I'd rather have five more years of Tory rule if it gets us ten of Labour after that than vice versa.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 11, 2019, 03:50:04 pm
I can see it triggering consolidation of the Remain vote toward Labour (which we're already seeing some evidence for) so let's see where things go from there.

Why do you think this? Labour, despite what Corbynites would have us believe, still don't have any credibility on Brexit. The Lib Dem polling slide after the calling of the election was only a few points, was always inevitable once a campaign began and has since stalled.

For what feels like the 400th time, Labour are not a remain party

Besides, the Lib Dems will happily use this in every election leaflet and broadcast from now until December 12th in order to bring Tory remainers over to their side, so if anything, their share of the remainer vote will go up because of it.

Fwiw, I don't think this will change much except at the margins in a few Brexity & Lab held marginals where the Lib Dems were already mostly irrelevant.

I think this entire Leave/Remain issue is more about identity than what is the technical definition of Leave and Remain. This is why Farage seems to have failed in his attack on Johnson's deal as "Not real Brexit" since very few is really that interested in that dictionary definition.  By the same token I think the LAB position which is of course very vague could end up collecting a lot of Remain voters by the same logic. 


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 11, 2019, 03:51:27 pm
What I want to know about Labour's position is which passport control queue I'll end up in if I land at Vienna airport.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: brucejoel99 on November 11, 2019, 04:07:17 pm
Best way to have stopped Brexit would have been to vote Labour in 2015. That was the most important election of our times, everything else just follows the ghastly course it set. Oh well.

I did. I campaigned on the doorstep too, on a trip in Thurrock where the TV actor Shaun Dooley was one of the people bussed in to the marginal seat.

Labour came third. Then Ed Miliband decided to throw open the leadership ballot to every Johnny and Jenny come lately that could pony up a sum less than what I spent on my lunch today instead of limiting it to actual members.

So we got Corbyn. Who managed to make multiple unforced errors in week one. Since then Labour supporters have spent a huge amount of time moaning about media coverage and very little working out a viable way of dealing with it.

Then there's been antisemitism. I quit partly because it was taking longer than a murder case from arrest to conviction does to deal with Ken Livingstone and things have gotten worse since then.

A Conservative majority is a realistic possibility here and to be honest, a heavy loss might be what Labour needs to bring some sense back into its politics. I'd rather have five more years of Tory rule if it gets us ten of Labour after that than vice versa.

Not that I'm particularly a fan of Corbyn or anything, but that's kind of a non-sequitur, as "limiting [the 2015 leadership election] to actual members" wouldn't have changed anything; the result certainly would've been narrowed, of course, but Corbyn had already secured 49.5% of the members' vote on the 1st ballot alone, so had it been a members' only election, he would've just won it on the 2nd ballot instead of the 1st, & Labour would still be right where they are today.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 11, 2019, 04:26:11 pm
Best way to have stopped Brexit would have been to vote Labour in 2015. That was the most important election of our times, everything else just follows the ghastly course it set. Oh well.

I did. I campaigned on the doorstep too, on a trip in Thurrock where the TV actor Shaun Dooley was one of the people bussed in to the marginal seat.

Labour came third. Then Ed Miliband decided to throw open the leadership ballot to every Johnny and Jenny come lately that could pony up a sum less than what I spent on my lunch today instead of limiting it to actual members.

So we got Corbyn. Who managed to make multiple unforced errors in week one. Since then Labour supporters have spent a huge amount of time moaning about media coverage and very little working out a viable way of dealing with it.

Then there's been antisemitism. I quit partly because it was taking longer than a murder case from arrest to conviction does to deal with Ken Livingstone and things have gotten worse since then.

A Conservative majority is a realistic possibility here and to be honest, a heavy loss might be what Labour needs to bring some sense back into its politics. I'd rather have five more years of Tory rule if it gets us ten of Labour after that than vice versa.

Not that I'm particularly a fan of Corbyn or anything, but that's kind of a non-sequitur, as "limiting [the 2015 leadership election] to actual members" wouldn't have changed anything; the result certainly would've been narrowed, of course, but Corbyn had already secured 49.5% of the members' vote on the 1st ballot alone, so had it been a members' only election, he would've just won it on the 2nd ballot instead of the 1st, & Labour would still be right where they are today.

I think it is referencing that Labour had an absurdly low membership fee and lots of people joined to vote for Corbyn.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaymichaud on November 11, 2019, 04:35:07 pm
So the Labor surge is... underwhelming at the moment.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: brucejoel99 on November 11, 2019, 04:48:06 pm
Best way to have stopped Brexit would have been to vote Labour in 2015. That was the most important election of our times, everything else just follows the ghastly course it set. Oh well.

I did. I campaigned on the doorstep too, on a trip in Thurrock where the TV actor Shaun Dooley was one of the people bussed in to the marginal seat.

Labour came third. Then Ed Miliband decided to throw open the leadership ballot to every Johnny and Jenny come lately that could pony up a sum less than what I spent on my lunch today instead of limiting it to actual members.

So we got Corbyn. Who managed to make multiple unforced errors in week one. Since then Labour supporters have spent a huge amount of time moaning about media coverage and very little working out a viable way of dealing with it.

Then there's been antisemitism. I quit partly because it was taking longer than a murder case from arrest to conviction does to deal with Ken Livingstone and things have gotten worse since then.

A Conservative majority is a realistic possibility here and to be honest, a heavy loss might be what Labour needs to bring some sense back into its politics. I'd rather have five more years of Tory rule if it gets us ten of Labour after that than vice versa.

Not that I'm particularly a fan of Corbyn or anything, but that's kind of a non-sequitur, as "limiting [the 2015 leadership election] to actual members" wouldn't have changed anything; the result certainly would've been narrowed, of course, but Corbyn had already secured 49.5% of the members' vote on the 1st ballot alone, so had it been a members' only election, he would've just won it on the 2nd ballot instead of the 1st, & Labour would still be right where they are today.

I think it is referencing that Labour had an absurdly low membership fee and lots of people joined to vote for Corbyn.

No, that would've been the registered £3 supporter category that Miliband introduced, which was separate from the membership.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 11, 2019, 05:19:36 pm
This is from Election Maps UK

()

This doesn't mean in anyway the same is going to happen again; but Labour are polling the same as they did during the same point in the last campaign and Brexit are only slightly ahead of UKIP (with the expectation that support will collapse) Green are also converging on their last result. For all the talk of Lab-Lib Dem switchers, the Tories are down almost as much as the Lib Dems are up.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 11, 2019, 05:22:06 pm
BBC reports the Greens are not fielding a candidate against Iain Duncan Smith and endorse Labour in bid to take him  down.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: morgieb on November 11, 2019, 05:47:17 pm
This is from Election Maps UK

()

This doesn't mean in anyway the same is going to happen again; but Labour are polling the same as they did during the same point in the last campaign and Brexit are only slightly ahead of UKIP (with the expectation that support will collapse) Green are also converging on their last result. For all the talk of Lab-Lib Dem switchers, the Tories are down almost as much as the Lib Dems are up.
So by that logic, we can expect the votes on December 12 to be:

Con: 33.7%
Lab: 39.9%
Lib Dem: 13.9%
Brexit: 4.3%
Greens: 2.3%

Dominating!


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 11, 2019, 08:17:50 pm
One rumor that I have seen going around concerning farage is that he may have financial issues. The party was always fueled by the tory grassroots and so once the Conservatives returned to their commanding position, the money dried up. Those backers that still remain want him to cooperate with the Tories and push them further right, not compromise Brexit for Farage's ego. Which is why the man is begging for the Tories to reach out, and now stepped down in their seats.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 11, 2019, 09:13:02 pm
For the record, Labour came second in Thurrock in 2015 (as in 2010 and 2017 - all by small margins)

And the solution to what happened then was never for the party to hurtle to the right as the lemming like 4.5% tendency (well represented on here as on other politics discussion boards) demanded. That way lay only SPD or PASOK style oblivion. 

Like it or not, some form of Corbynism (even if moderated and "sanitised" a bit) really *is* the only game in town - almost whatever the result next month. Though the above graph should give those who have already decided that a big Tory win is inevitable some pause.   


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 11, 2019, 10:11:40 pm
I can see it triggering consolidation of the Remain vote toward Labour (which we're already seeing some evidence for) so let's see where things go from there.

Why do you think this? Labour, despite what Corbynites would have us believe, still don't have any credibility on Brexit. The Lib Dem polling slide after the calling of the election was only a few points, was always inevitable once a campaign began and has since stalled.

For what feels like the 400th time, Labour are not a remain party

Besides, the Lib Dems will happily use this in every election leaflet and broadcast from now until December 12th in order to bring Tory remainers over to their side, so if anything, their share of the remainer vote will go up because of it.

Fwiw, I don't think this will change much except at the margins in a few Brexity & Lab held marginals where the Lib Dems were already mostly irrelevant.

Labour is offering a second referendum though. With Labour you get either a soft Brexit or no Brexit at all, both are clearly superior to if Boris wins a majority which would guarantee a hard Brexit. Labour isn't perfect but they're clearly better than the Tories on Brexit (and overall too).

I can't speak for anyone else but I don't trust that Labour will give the second referendum that they offer and even if I did, its too little too late. I also don't believe a Corbyn Brexit would be any softer than a Boris one. Again, this is just me and I'd probably advise against extrapolating this to a wider voting bloc - I imagine there are a near-infinite range of opinions on this among remainer voters.

I've heard this sentiment from a Lib Dem supporter lately and, honestly, it baffles me. Given the agonies Labour has endured internally to get to the policy it has now (which is, for the record, nearly identical to the Lib Dem position from 2017), and given the electoral calculus attached to adopting a pro-Leave position for anyone but the Tories and Brexit/UKIP, what on earth makes a person think Labour would renege on promising a referendum with a Remain option? Whose benefit would it be to? What advantage would it provide?

Add to that, even if a PM Corbyn and his inner circle tried to push  a soft vs hard Brexit referendum through parliament, the PLP would never support it and the membership would go apoplectic. Not holding a referendum at all would just put Corbyn in the same position May and Johnson were in, even if he had a majority (again, PLP is overwhelmingly Remain).

I get that distrusting politicians, and Corbyn in particular, is basically the default position for most voters, but the idea that Corbyn would renege on this policy at this time doesn't hold up to even modest scrutiny.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: EastAnglianLefty on November 12, 2019, 04:03:03 am
It's clear Labour has pissed off a fair number of people who voted for it in 2017 and this is not consequence-free. That said, we got a fair amount of votes in 2017 from people who felt they had to pick the lesser of two evils and from people who didn't trust Corbyn but figured he wasn't going to win, so they could safely park their vote with us. I haven't seen any studies on what proportion of our vote that was, but the extent to which those voters are willing to do the same again is likely to be quite important.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 12, 2019, 06:03:36 am
I can see it triggering consolidation of the Remain vote toward Labour (which we're already seeing some evidence for) so let's see where things go from there.

Why do you think this? Labour, despite what Corbynites would have us believe, still don't have any credibility on Brexit. The Lib Dem polling slide after the calling of the election was only a few points, was always inevitable once a campaign began and has since stalled.

For what feels like the 400th time, Labour are not a remain party

Besides, the Lib Dems will happily use this in every election leaflet and broadcast from now until December 12th in order to bring Tory remainers over to their side, so if anything, their share of the remainer vote will go up because of it.

Fwiw, I don't think this will change much except at the margins in a few Brexity & Lab held marginals where the Lib Dems were already mostly irrelevant.

Labour is offering a second referendum though. With Labour you get either a soft Brexit or no Brexit at all, both are clearly superior to if Boris wins a majority which would guarantee a hard Brexit. Labour isn't perfect but they're clearly better than the Tories on Brexit (and overall too).

I can't speak for anyone else but I don't trust that Labour will give the second referendum that they offer and even if I did, its too little too late. I also don't believe a Corbyn Brexit would be any softer than a Boris one. Again, this is just me and I'd probably advise against extrapolating this to a wider voting bloc - I imagine there are a near-infinite range of opinions on this among remainer voters.

I've heard this sentiment from a Lib Dem supporter lately and, honestly, it baffles me. Given the agonies Labour has endured internally to get to the policy it has now (which is, for the record, nearly identical to the Lib Dem position from 2017), and given the electoral calculus attached to adopting a pro-Leave position for anyone but the Tories and Brexit/UKIP, what on earth makes a person think Labour would renege on promising a referendum with a Remain option? Whose benefit would it be to? What advantage would it provide?

Add to that, even if a PM Corbyn and his inner circle tried to push  a soft vs hard Brexit referendum through parliament, the PLP would never support it and the membership would go apoplectic. Not holding a referendum at all would just put Corbyn in the same position May and Johnson were in, even if he had a majority (again, PLP is overwhelmingly Remain).

I get that distrusting politicians, and Corbyn in particular, is basically the default position for most voters, but the idea that Corbyn would renege on this policy at this time doesn't hold up to even modest scrutiny.

BuT jEmErY cRoByN sEcReTlY wAnTs A nO dEaL bReXiT!!!!!!!?????1111!!!!!


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 12, 2019, 06:22:36 am
Labour say their systems have been hit by a DDoS attack.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 12, 2019, 06:31:12 am
I've heard this sentiment from a Lib Dem supporter lately and, honestly, it baffles me. Given the agonies Labour has endured internally to get to the policy it has now (which is, for the record, nearly identical to the Lib Dem position from 2017), and given the electoral calculus attached to adopting a pro-Leave position for anyone but the Tories and Brexit/UKIP, what on earth makes a person think Labour would renege on promising a referendum with a Remain option? Whose benefit would it be to? What advantage would it provide?

It would provide the advantage that we would have no way of not leaving the EU and this is what Corbyn wants, because he is a useful idiot for the Faragists. Remember, the EU once said something capitalist and that is utterly inexcusable for a good comrade to support.

Add to that, even if a PM Corbyn and his inner circle tried to push  a soft vs hard Brexit referendum through parliament, the PLP would never support it and the membership would go apoplectic. Not holding a referendum at all would just put Corbyn in the same position May and Johnson were in, even if he had a majority (again, PLP is overwhelmingly Remain).

Ah, yes, the PLP, that famously firm and not-at-all-spineless group of people. Get real. Corbyn wouldn't have to finish the word 'deselection' before they'd all bolt into line like a succession of highly paid rabbits. And frankly I find the notion that the membership would oppose Corbyn on anything utterly and completely hilarious. The only way his hand would be forced would be by any parties supporting the government threatening to pull support, which I suppose would require... oh yes, the Lib Dems. A majority Corbyn government would have no issue making a soft vs hard Brexit referendum or not having one at all. And at what cost? Some grumbling from MPs and initial outrage from voters before everyone forgets it even happened by 2024. And that's not even considering the possibility that he would try to pass it with Conservative votes.

I get that distrusting politicians, and Corbyn in particular, is basically the default position for most voters, but the idea that Corbyn would renege on this policy at this time doesn't hold up to even modest scrutiny.

You're quite right that I don't trust Corbyn on this. My evidence for it are his last three and a half years of actions, right up to the '7/10' interview. The counter-evidence is the idea that Corbyn actually wants to remain (just lol) or that the PLP will force his hand (the PLP couldn't force him to drink a glass of water.) I'm quite happy in my distrust.

BuT jEmErY cRoByN sEcReTlY wAnTs A nO dEaL bReXiT!!!!!!!?????1111!!!!!

This but unironically


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 12, 2019, 06:35:34 am

BuT jEmErY cRoByN sEcReTlY wAnTs A nO dEaL bReXiT!!!!!!!?????1111!!!!!

This but unironically

Ah, you subscribe to one of the most ridiculous alt-centrist memes. Good to know :)

In reality, Corbyn has publicly opposed a no deal Brexit on every occasion. From the beginning. And has whipped Labour MPs to oppose it again and again.

But something something DISASTER SOCIALISM something something, amirite?  


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: morgieb on November 12, 2019, 06:41:13 am
I've heard this sentiment from a Lib Dem supporter lately and, honestly, it baffles me. Given the agonies Labour has endured internally to get to the policy it has now (which is, for the record, nearly identical to the Lib Dem position from 2017), and given the electoral calculus attached to adopting a pro-Leave position for anyone but the Tories and Brexit/UKIP, what on earth makes a person think Labour would renege on promising a referendum with a Remain option? Whose benefit would it be to? What advantage would it provide?

It would provide the advantage that we would have no way of not leaving the EU and this is what Corbyn wants, because he is a useful idiot for the Faragists. Remember, the EU once said something capitalist and that is utterly inexcusable for a good comrade to support.

Add to that, even if a PM Corbyn and his inner circle tried to push  a soft vs hard Brexit referendum through parliament, the PLP would never support it and the membership would go apoplectic. Not holding a referendum at all would just put Corbyn in the same position May and Johnson were in, even if he had a majority (again, PLP is overwhelmingly Remain).

Ah, yes, the PLP, that famously firm and not-at-all-spineless group of people. Get real. Corbyn wouldn't have to finish the word 'deselection' before they'd all bolt into line like a succession of highly paid rabbits. And frankly I find the notion that the membership would oppose Corbyn on anything utterly and completely hilarious. The only way his hand would be forced would be by any parties supporting the government threatening to pull support, which I suppose would require... oh yes, the Lib Dems. A majority Corbyn government would have no issue making a soft vs hard Brexit referendum or not having one at all. And at what cost? Some grumbling from MPs and initial outrage from voters before everyone forgets it even happened by 2024. And that's not even considering the possibility that he would try to pass it with Conservative votes.

I get that distrusting politicians, and Corbyn in particular, is basically the default position for most voters, but the idea that Corbyn would renege on this policy at this time doesn't hold up to even modest scrutiny.

You're quite right that I don't trust Corbyn on this. My evidence for it are his last three and a half years of actions, right up to the '7/10' interview. The counter-evidence is the idea that Corbyn actually wants to remain (just lol) or that the PLP will force his hand (the PLP couldn't force him to drink a glass of water.) I'm quite happy in my distrust.

BuT jEmErY cRoByN sEcReTlY wAnTs A nO dEaL bReXiT!!!!!!!?????1111!!!!!

This but unironically
The reason why Corbyn has shifted a lot on Brexit recently is IMO down to supporter pressure. I bet if he tried to push Labor in a Brexit direction even the supporters would revolt. The party membership does come across as cultish at times but the majority of them would draw the line at Corbyn not allowing a remain option in a referendum.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 12, 2019, 07:02:59 am

BuT jEmErY cRoByN sEcReTlY wAnTs A nO dEaL bReXiT!!!!!!!?????1111!!!!!

This but unironically

Ah, you subscribe to one of the most ridiculous alt-centrist memes. Good to know :)

In reality, Corbyn has publicly opposed a no deal Brexit on every occasion. From the beginning. And has whipped Labour MPs to oppose it again and again.

But something something DISASTER SOCIALISM something something, amirite?  

Nice label but I think you'll find I'm firmly a creature of the left on  nearly every issue apart from 'is Jeremy Corbyn the rightful Emperor of the Galaxy?'

The only reason he whipped against No Deal is because even he is smart enough to spot the electoral consequences. I have no doubts about his personal views.

I don't necessarily agree with his economic policies but they are well down the list of issues.

The reason why Corbyn has shifted a lot on Brexit recently is IMO down to supporter pressure. I bet if he tried to push Labor in a Brexit direction even the supporters would revolt. The party membership does come across as cultish at times but the majority of them would draw the line at Corbyn not allowing a remain option in a referendum.

You ever met any Corbyn supporters lol? Worship of him comes first. The reason for the shift was electoral, notice it mainly coincides with the LD poll rise around late spring/early summer


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 12, 2019, 07:15:42 am
Ah yes, its all about "belief".

You are certainly a good fit for the cult DaWN - Swinson's "remain as identity" cult, that is. 


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 12, 2019, 07:52:46 am
Well, guilty as charged there. I'd point out that you and I are not on as different sides as you seem to think. We both want the same thing (a fairer society), I am just of the belief that Lexit is certain to cause, not prevent, Farage and Boris' free market dystopia. That's why I am so adamant.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on November 12, 2019, 07:58:54 am
Labour say their systems have been hit by a DDoS attack.

No, it was just a compatibility issue with the Soviet hardware the campaign is using.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 12, 2019, 09:11:12 am
More polls...

Survation: Con 35, Lab 29, LDem 17, BP 10, Greens 1, Others ?*
ICM: Con 39, Lab 31, LDem 15, BP 8, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 1

*Note that Survation polls include Northern Ireland, so mentally change those figures to 36, 30... for comparative purposes.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 12, 2019, 09:14:25 am
Anyway, the government's response to the flooding in Yorkshire and the East Midlands has become an election issue.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 12, 2019, 09:43:43 am
Ian Lavery has clarified Labour's "neutrality" in the Kashmir conflict, fearing that Hindu voters will turn from the party.

In irrelevant microparty news, the Women's Equality Party are standing down in favour of the Lib Dems in the City of London and Westminster and Sheffield Hallam. (it looks like they were standing against all the prominent sexual misconduct cases, but of course neither Field nor O'Mara are standing again).


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 12, 2019, 09:50:50 am
Labour say their systems have been hit by a DDoS attack.

No, it was just a compatibility issue with the Soviet hardware the campaign is using.

In socialist Britain, service denies *you*!


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 12, 2019, 10:30:44 am
Well, guilty as charged there. I'd point out that you and I are not on as different sides as you seem to think. We both want the same thing (a fairer society), I am just of the belief that Lexit is certain to cause, not prevent, Farage and Boris' free market dystopia. That's why I am so adamant.

I am also opposed to Brexit, voted remain in 2016 and would do so again.

That's not the Swinsonite mindset I referred to, however. 


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Solidarity Forever on November 12, 2019, 11:07:33 am

Not if you know what Farage wants.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on November 12, 2019, 11:26:01 am
More polls...

Survation: Con 35, Lab 29, LDem 17, BP 10, Greens 1, Others ?*
ICM: Con 39, Lab 31, LDem 15, BP 8, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 1

*Note that Survation polls include Northern Ireland, so mentally change those figures to 36, 30... for comparative purposes.

It's certainly tightening up.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 12, 2019, 11:52:38 am


Okay so the first DDoS was the probe?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on November 12, 2019, 12:17:44 pm


Okay so the first DDoS was the probe?

Jezza: Keir, mate, WHAT IS THIS "WEBSITE NOT FOUND" MESSAGE? Is it the modem again? I just wanted to send an electronic mail to Evo.

Diane Abbot: RUSSIANS!!!

Jezza: SAY MORE.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: EastAnglianLefty on November 12, 2019, 01:00:35 pm
More polls...

Survation: Con 35, Lab 29, LDem 17, BP 10, Greens 1, Others ?*
ICM: Con 39, Lab 31, LDem 15, BP 8, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 1

*Note that Survation polls include Northern Ireland, so mentally change those figures to 36, 30... for comparative purposes.

It's certainly tightening up.

YouGov have just reported a 14 point lead for the Tories, so some of it is just about the differing house effects of the various pollsters.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 12, 2019, 01:35:19 pm
More polls...

Survation: Con 35, Lab 29, LDem 17, BP 10, Greens 1, Others ?*
ICM: Con 39, Lab 31, LDem 15, BP 8, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 1

*Note that Survation polls include Northern Ireland, so mentally change those figures to 36, 30... for comparative purposes.

It's certainly tightening up.

YouGov have just reported a 14 point lead for the Tories, so some of it is just about the differing house effects of the various pollsters.

At the national level, Survation knows what it is doing and YouGov does not.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 12, 2019, 01:47:20 pm
They did last time. Not necessarily a guarantee that they do this time.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 12, 2019, 01:54:57 pm
They did last time. Not necessarily a guarantee that they do this time.

Rule one of elections: Cherry Picking or throwing out polls means you are biased or an idiot, unless said polls were  commissioned by Mclaughlin. Instead you weight/average said polls and look at the overall trends, which right now all look like this, even though there is some MOE disagreement by a point or 2 depending on your weights.

()

()

()


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 12, 2019, 01:58:08 pm
More polls...

Survation: Con 35, Lab 29, LDem 17, BP 10, Greens 1, Others ?*
ICM: Con 39, Lab 31, LDem 15, BP 8, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 1

*Note that Survation polls include Northern Ireland, so mentally change those figures to 36, 30... for comparative purposes.

It's certainly tightening up.

YouGov have just reported a 14 point lead for the Tories, so some of it is just about the differing house effects of the various pollsters.

Though that is just one point up on their previous poll, and none at all before a methodology change (supposedly accounting for BxP not standing in Tory seats) is added. On that evidence, not exactly the turbo-boost to Johnson's campaign some pundits excitedly proclaimed.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 12, 2019, 01:59:10 pm
For purposes of comparison, 2017 was Conservatives 42, Labour 40.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 12, 2019, 02:00:24 pm


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 12, 2019, 02:01:09 pm
For purposes of comparison, 2017 was Conservatives 42, Labour 40.

Actually Tories 43.5 Labour 41 if we are doing GB scores (as most pollsters do)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 12, 2019, 02:03:19 pm
For purposes of comparison, 2017 was Conservatives 42, Labour 40.

Actually Tories 43.5 Labour 41 if we are doing GB scores (as most pollsters do)

Though, as it happens, not Survation.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 12, 2019, 02:08:52 pm
()

oof


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 12, 2019, 02:11:52 pm


After he had made a total tit of himself, mind. Though it is a mystery why the LibDems thought they should have a "high profile" candidate in this one anyway - they will probably replace him before the Thursday deadline but this time round it really will be a token.  


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: brucejoel99 on November 12, 2019, 02:54:43 pm
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1194327946107867137

After he had made a total tit of himself, mind. Though it is a mystery why the LibDems thought they should have a "high profile" candidate in this one anyway - they will probably replace him before the Thursday deadline but this time round it really will be a token.  

Sorry, how did Walker make a total tit of himself? Not doubting it or anything, it's just that I hadn't heard of any incidents regarding him having occurred.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 13, 2019, 04:35:52 am
David Gauke is standing as an Independent. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/12/ex-tory-cabinet-minister-david-gauke-to-run-as-independent He is now backing a second referendum, saying that the country could no longer be united around a "relatively soft Brexit". Gauke also suggested that people should vote LibDem in many constituencies (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/13/vote-lib-dem-urges-former-conservative-minister-david-gauke), saying "A Conservative majority after the next general election will take us in the direction of a very hard Brexit and in all likelihood at the end of 2020 we will leave the implementation period without a deal with the EU on WTO  terms – in effect on no-deal terms – and that I believe would be disastrous for the prosperity of this country."

Indeed he is probably right, Johnson has promised not to extend the transition period (though his promises are now pretty unreliable) and has even refused to give parliament a vote on such an extension, plus he has probably made some kind of deal with the Brexit Party. Therefore, the UK would have to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU in one year, which is if anything more implausible than leaving the EU on October 31 was.

Good on Gauke for standing on principle, I hope he wins. His constituency I believe voted for Remain but I don't know much about the contest, does he have a good shot at winning?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 13, 2019, 06:25:44 am
According to Election Calculus Hertfordshire South West voted 46% Leave.

The Liberal Dem has decided on his own volition to withdraw.  The Liberal Dems are considering replacements.  The Green Party is not contesting the seat. It is also a seat covered by by the Brexit Party standown.
 
In 2017 Gauke as the Tory candidate won the seat with 57.9%. The other percentages were Labour 25.7%, Liberal Dem. 11.7%, Green 2.6%, UKIP 2.1%.

Without Gauke as an Independent candidate and without Liberal Dem, Green, or Brexit candidates Electoral Calculus predicts the following results  Conservative 61%, Labour 37.7%, UKIP .4%, Other .9%.

I guess Gauke figures he is a popular MP and that he can take enough of the Conservative and Labour vote to win.  With the Leave vote at 46% I do not see him pulling this off, even if the Labour candidate stood down.  I also do not see a Labour stand down materializing.

I think Gauke may have developed some delusions of grandeur.
 


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 13, 2019, 06:31:16 am

Good on Gauke for standing on principle, I hope he wins. His constituency I believe voted for Remain but I don't know much about the contest, does he have a good shot at winning?

Indeed, kudos to him. His shot at winning is debatable. The seat, South West Hertfordshire, is quintessentially Home County Tory. They always win there - even in 1997 the Tories had a majority of 10K+. Labour came in 2nd in 2017, but 20K votes behind, and in previous years the Lib Dems have occasionally taken second place, again with around a 10K+ deficits.

On the other hand, Gauke has been around for over a decade and appears to have his own 'personal' vote on top of what you would expect any Tory to get. Also, SWH voted remain 53/47, and it's reasonable to assume it's more remainy now than in 2016.

If Gauke runs he could very well poach enough of the Tory vote to win, but probably only if either the Lib Dems or Labour stands down and endorses him, too. Even then, unless it's Labour that stands down I doubt even deep personal affection for Gauke would be enough for most (Tory) voters in the area to 'risk' a vote for him, lest it allow Labour to win by coming up the middle.

Edit:

The Liberal Dem has decided on his own volition to withdraw.  The Liberal Dems are considering replacements.  The Green Party is not contesting the seat. It is also a seat covered by by the Brexit Party standown.
 

Have they? I haven't seen that reported, but it might be buried pretty far down with all the news during an election.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 13, 2019, 06:38:28 am
This whole Canterbury thing is such a sorry affair for the Lib Dems and has the potential to be rather damaging all because of one idiot's ego.

Even if you buy the whole 'Vote Labour Get Remain' line (which I think we've established I don't), he must have known that this would create a serious debate within the party at a time more than any other when it needs to provide a united front. It also continues to perpetuate the idea that Labour can take control of the Remain vote which not only is ridiculous (accepting Jeremy Corbyn as Remain's great hope is accepting we have finally lost) but also is completely counter to what the Lib Dems actually need to be doing right now to win votes and seats - i.e getting remainers to vote for them. It also creates a lovely line for Tory leaflets: "The Lib Dems back Corbyn in Canterbury. How do you know they won't in Cheltenham/Winchester/Guildford/Brecon/St Ives/Cheadle/Hazel Grove/Westmoreland/Carshalton etc." And the worst thing is it won't even achieve what he wants! The national party will just impose another candidate who I doubt will get all that much less than he would have done. I can only conclude he is a rampant egotist who has decided his 20 minutes in the spotlight is more important than actually getting Remain MPs elected. This will hurt the party and the cause in the short, medium and long run.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Cassius on November 13, 2019, 07:40:21 am
https://youtu.be/97zPDojMWiQ (https://youtu.be/97zPDojMWiQ)

Is this satire? Also, enough of this ing ‘oven ready’ Brexit for the microwave mixed metaphor.

This is one of the problemswith Johnson - every time he gets asked a simple question about anything, trivial or non-trivial, outside of the context of PMQ’s, he looks and responds as if the question were ‘would you like to come with us sir? Down the station’.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on November 13, 2019, 07:55:44 am
This whole Canterbury thing is such a sorry affair for the Lib Dems and has the potential to be rather damaging all because of one idiot's ego.

Even if you buy the whole 'Vote Labour Get Remain' line (which I think we've established I don't), he must have known that this would create a serious debate within the party at a time more than any other when it needs to provide a united front. It also continues to perpetuate the idea that Labour can take control of the Remain vote which not only is ridiculous (accepting Jeremy Corbyn as Remain's great hope is accepting we have finally lost) but also is completely counter to what the Lib Dems actually need to be doing right now to win votes and seats - i.e getting remainers to vote for them. It also creates a lovely line for Tory leaflets: "The Lib Dems back Corbyn in Canterbury. How do you know they won't in Cheltenham/Winchester/Guildford/Brecon/St Ives/Cheadle/Hazel Grove/Westmoreland/Carshalton etc." And the worst thing is it won't even achieve what he wants! The national party will just impose another candidate who I doubt will get all that much less than he would have done. I can only conclude he is a rampant egotist who has decided his 20 minutes in the spotlight is more important than actually getting Remain MPs elected. This will hurt the party and the cause in the short, medium and long run.

It's not complicated. A man who is member of a party almost entirely oriented around stopping Brexit determined that the best way of stopping Brexit was not running at all. When your party makes itself entirely about stopping Brexit, this is entirely the right thing to do. In fact, the only mystery is why more members of the party entirely about stopping Brexit wouldn't do what is most likely to stop Brexit and step down. The LibDems prattlr on and on about Brexit but when it comes down to making hard choices to stop Brexit they go about political strutting that makes stopping Brexit less likely. But please do go on (and on) about how thr LibDems are the only party capable of stopping Brexit.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 13, 2019, 08:00:56 am
This whole Canterbury thing is such a sorry affair for the Lib Dems and has the potential to be rather damaging all because of one idiot's ego.

Even if you buy the whole 'Vote Labour Get Remain' line (which I think we've established I don't), he must have known that this would create a serious debate within the party at a time more than any other when it needs to provide a united front. It also continues to perpetuate the idea that Labour can take control of the Remain vote which not only is ridiculous (accepting Jeremy Corbyn as Remain's great hope is accepting we have finally lost) but also is completely counter to what the Lib Dems actually need to be doing right now to win votes and seats - i.e getting remainers to vote for them. It also creates a lovely line for Tory leaflets: "The Lib Dems back Corbyn in Canterbury. How do you know they won't in Cheltenham/Winchester/Guildford/Brecon/St Ives/Cheadle/Hazel Grove/Westmoreland/Carshalton etc." And the worst thing is it won't even achieve what he wants! The national party will just impose another candidate who I doubt will get all that much less than he would have done. I can only conclude he is a rampant egotist who has decided his 20 minutes in the spotlight is more important than actually getting Remain MPs elected. This will hurt the party and the cause in the short, medium and long run.

It's not complicated. A man who is member of a party almost entirely oriented around stopping Brexit determined that the best way of stopping Brexit was not running at all. When your party makes itself entirely about stopping Brexit, this is entirely the right thing to do. In fact, the only mystery is why more members of the party entirely about stopping Brexit wouldn't do what is most likely to stop Brexit and step down. The LibDems prattlr on and on about Brexit but when it comes down to making hard choices to stop Brexit they go about political strutting that makes stopping Brexit less likely. But please do go on (and on) about how thr LibDems are the only party capable of stopping Brexit.

You mustn't have read any posts of mine before then


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: brucejoel99 on November 13, 2019, 09:58:50 am
This whole Canterbury thing is such a sorry affair for the Lib Dems and has the potential to be rather damaging all because of one idiot's ego.

Even if you buy the whole 'Vote Labour Get Remain' line (which I think we've established I don't), he must have known that this would create a serious debate within the party at a time more than any other when it needs to provide a united front. It also continues to perpetuate the idea that Labour can take control of the Remain vote which not only is ridiculous (accepting Jeremy Corbyn as Remain's great hope is accepting we have finally lost) but also is completely counter to what the Lib Dems actually need to be doing right now to win votes and seats - i.e getting remainers to vote for them. It also creates a lovely line for Tory leaflets: "The Lib Dems back Corbyn in Canterbury. How do you know they won't in Cheltenham/Winchester/Guildford/Brecon/St Ives/Cheadle/Hazel Grove/Westmoreland/Carshalton etc." And the worst thing is it won't even achieve what he wants! The national party will just impose another candidate who I doubt will get all that much less than he would have done. I can only conclude he is a rampant egotist who has decided his 20 minutes in the spotlight is more important than actually getting Remain MPs elected. This will hurt the party and the cause in the short, medium and long run.

Lol regardless of what you think of Corbyn on this issue & a potential "Lexit," you can't equate Rosie Duffield to Corbyn on this issue. She is a legitimate full-on Remainer, through & through.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 13, 2019, 10:00:47 am


What morons. Corbyn probably can't believe his luck. Not only is his conning people into thinking he'll support Remain working, he's actually getting help for it! And the Lib Dems wonder why they got plastered so badly in 2015.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: brucejoel99 on November 13, 2019, 10:40:15 am


What morons. Corbyn probably can't believe his luck. Not only is his conning people into thinking he'll support Remain working, he's actually getting help for it! And the Lib Dems wonder why they got plastered so badly in 2015.

Again, to equate Corbyn himself with Ruth George, the individual pro-Remain Labour MP in question, is disingenuously misguided.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 13, 2019, 10:44:09 am
Again, to equate Corbyn himself with Ruth George, the individual pro-Remain Labour MP in question, is disingenuously misguided.

When the time comes, Duffield, George and all the other Remainer Labour MPs will do what Corbyn tells them to or face instant deselection.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on November 13, 2019, 11:01:18 am


What morons. Corbyn probably can't believe his luck. Not only is his conning people into thinking he'll support Remain working, he's actually getting help for it! And the Lib Dems wonder why they got plastered so badly in 2015.

It's almost as though remainers want to do what it takes to, you know, remain.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: brucejoel99 on November 13, 2019, 11:14:18 am
Again, to equate Corbyn himself with Ruth George, the individual pro-Remain Labour MP in question, is disingenuously misguided.

When the time comes, Duffield, George and all the other Remainer Labour MPs will do what Corbyn tells them to or face instant deselection.

Wow, not only do you have no idea what you're talking about when it comes to those named MPs in particular, let alone many of the other Remainer Labour MPs who also understand that the Remain movement is bigger than Labour, but that would be a fantastic way for Corbyn to lose valuable, super marginal seats, then.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 13, 2019, 12:07:24 pm
It's almost as though remainers want to do what it takes to, you know, remain.

By supporting a man who's done nothing but support Brexit for years? Brilliant logic. I guess in your view a great way for Democrats to get rid of Republicans in 2020 is to vote for Trump?

Wow, not only do you have no idea what you're talking about when it comes to those named MPs in particular, let alone many of the other Remainer Labour MPs who also understand that the Remain movement is bigger than Labour

Single MPs don't have the room to be independent mavericks in these hyper-polarised, charged up times. We saw that in the last parliament when MPs with years of service to the Conservative Party, including Ken Clarke, a man who served as a Tory chancellor and was Father of the House, were unceremoniously booted for opposing the party line on Brexit. I'm happy to bet a similar occurrence will take place in a Corbyn-led government.

And I can tell you've never met a Corbynite if you think they prioritise Remain over Corbyn Worship

but that would be a fantastic way for Corbyn to lose valuable, super marginal seats, then.

He's been doing nothing but supporting Brexit for years and his reward is about to be millions of remainers happily voting for him. I think it's a risk he'll take based on that.

--

My overall point was nothing to do with Corbyn anyway. It was that these Lib Dems are self-defeating idiots who have taken down the party's vote share by at least a few points and I'm surprised some are so dismissive of it. They've come out and said 'don't vote for us'. There's a massive difference between doing a non-existent campaign (which they easily could have done if they wanted these Corbyn Mouthpieces re-elected) and making a public display that their own party doesn't matter. If this is a message that gets repeated any further, its the end in any LD-Lab contests and is an easy print on every Tory leaflet in every Con-LD contest ("Vote Lib Dem Get Corbyn"). It's because of poor message discipline and that there's yet to be a strong rebuttal from the leadership speaks volumes. The downward trajectory of the party going into the campaign was probably inevitable but this event could well hasten and amplify the decline. Which leaves Remainers with Mr 7/10 as our spokesman.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 13, 2019, 12:31:48 pm
Kantar's first poll of the campaign: Con 37, Lab 27, LDem 17, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 3

This is possibly of some minor interest as throughout the Autumn, Kantar had been consistent in showing Conservative leads of 14pts.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 13, 2019, 12:56:21 pm
Still no polling from Scotland.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on November 13, 2019, 01:00:27 pm
It's almost as though remainers want to do what it takes to, you know, remain.

By supporting a man who's done nothing but support Brexit for years? Brilliant logic. I guess in your view a great way for Democrats to get rid of Republicans in 2020 is to vote for Trump?

Wow, not only do you have no idea what you're talking about when it comes to those named MPs in particular, let alone many of the other Remainer Labour MPs who also understand that the Remain movement is bigger than Labour

Single MPs don't have the room to be independent mavericks in these hyper-polarised, charged up times. We saw that in the last parliament when MPs with years of service to the Conservative Party, including Ken Clarke, a man who served as a Tory chancellor and was Father of the House, were unceremoniously booted for opposing the party line on Brexit. I'm happy to bet a similar occurrence will take place in a Corbyn-led government.

And I can tell you've never met a Corbynite if you think they prioritise Remain over Corbyn Worship

but that would be a fantastic way for Corbyn to lose valuable, super marginal seats, then.

He's been doing nothing but supporting Brexit for years and his reward is about to be millions of remainers happily voting for him. I think it's a risk he'll take based on that.

--

My overall point was nothing to do with Corbyn anyway. It was that these Lib Dems are self-defeating idiots who have taken down the party's vote share by at least a few points and I'm surprised some are so dismissive of it. They've come out and said 'don't vote for us'. There's a massive difference between doing a non-existent campaign (which they easily could have done if they wanted these Corbyn Mouthpieces re-elected) and making a public display that their own party doesn't matter. If this is a message that gets repeated any further, its the end in any LD-Lab contests and is an easy print on every Tory leaflet in every Con-LD contest ("Vote Lib Dem Get Corbyn"). It's because of poor message discipline and that there's yet to be a strong rebuttal from the leadership speaks volumes. The downward trajectory of the party going into the campaign was probably inevitable but this event could well hasten and amplify the decline. Which leaves Remainers with Mr 7/10 as our spokesman.

It is true for these two things to he true at the same time--that Corbyn is a feckless leader with little ability to see clearly on Brexit because he wears thick ideological blinders AND that Corbyn is the last, best hope for remainers. He certainly is more competent and less monstrous than his opponents think of him, in any case. He also is hemmed in enough by political reality that even of he were a closet leaver (I think he's just agnostic) his fecklessness still wouldn't prevent a second referendum which stands a good shot at overturning Brexit. In certain constituencies the LibDems may very well be a better option for remainers. But if remainers in many other constituencies see that Labour is the better remain choice, it's downright craven to suggest that they are sealing the deal for Brexit.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 13, 2019, 01:00:39 pm

My overall point was nothing to do with Corbyn anyway. It was that these Lib Dems are self-defeating idiots who have taken down the party's vote share by at least a few points and I'm surprised some are so dismissive of it. They've come out and said 'don't vote for us'. There's a massive difference between doing a non-existent campaign (which they easily could have done if they wanted these Corbyn Mouthpieces re-elected) and making a public display that their own party doesn't matter. If this is a message that gets repeated any further, its the end in any LD-Lab contests and is an easy print on every Tory leaflet in every Con-LD contest ("Vote Lib Dem Get Corbyn"). It's because of poor message discipline and that there's yet to be a strong rebuttal from the leadership speaks volumes. The downward trajectory of the party going into the campaign was probably inevitable but this event could well hasten and amplify the decline. Which leaves Remainers with Mr 7/10 as our spokesman.

There was a nearly instantaneous and unwavering denunciation by Jo Swinson of the mere idea of cooperating with Corbyn/Labour, both now and literally every other time it has come up. As you rightly point out, fearful Tory Remainers need to be reassured that voting Lib Dem doesn't equate to enabling a Corbyn government; the Lib Dem central office was pretty quick to swat down this idea. I'm not sure how you could have missed it.

To the broader point at hand, yes, you are correct to note Corbyn's longstanding Euroskepticism, perfunctory endorsement of Remain, and agonizingly slow adoption of a pro-referendum platform. However, you consistently overstate the case, assert facts that aren't in evidence, and ascribe to Corbyn/Labour motivations that don't make sense.

Corbyn's skeptical about the EU, but to say he's 'been doing nothing but supporting Brexit for years' is patently false: he campaigned for remain in 2016, he voted against the Tories' deal multiple times, and whipped his party to do the same. I'd also point out that among Tory/UKIP/BXP circles Corbyn's nickname is 'Remainer-in-chief'.

Secondly, Corbyn is definitely popular among Labour members but he's not infallible. Speaking as a Corbynite (my Lib Dem husband can attest to this, much to his chagrin), I assure you that I would take a Remain win over a Corbyn one any day of the week. More relevantly (and less subjectively), Corbyn, though popular, is not the only major force within the party. Any informed observation of Labour party politics would recognize the enduring power of the unions (only two of which are pro-Brexit), the influence of Momentum which is overwhelmingly Remain and has called for a referendum repeatedly, and the obviously pivotal role internal party democracy plays in guiding the direction of the party (why else would all those NEC elections get so heated?). Like it or not, Labour is bigger than Corbyn and any attempt to simplistically conflate the two deserves to be dismissed out of hand as nonsense.

Finally, whatever one thinks of Corbyn's personal motivations, the last few years have demonstrated beyond any reasonable doubt that he is far more wily and pragmatic than anyone assumed. Think about it: he's a lifelong Republican and anti-nuclear activist who has comfortably left those passions aside and adopted the mainstream Labour Party pro-monarchy/Trident line; he spent two decades denouncing 'triangulation' by Blair and then spent 3 years straddling the Remain/Leave divide with his 'Brexit if necessary but not necessarily Brexit' style policy; he even started wearing a suit and tie and singing (ok, nodding along) to the national anthem.

It's easy and tempting to denounce Corbyn, I know. But is it really so hard to believe that he might be willing to appease his party on Brexit? Especially when power is so close at hand.



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: brucejoel99 on November 13, 2019, 01:10:28 pm
Wow, not only do you have no idea what you're talking about when it comes to those named MPs in particular, let alone many of the other Remainer Labour MPs who also understand that the Remain movement is bigger than Labour

Single MPs don't have the room to be independent mavericks in these hyper-polarised, charged up times. We saw that in the last parliament when MPs with years of service to the Conservative Party, including Ken Clarke, a man who served as a Tory chancellor and was Father of the House, were unceremoniously booted for opposing the party line on Brexit. I'm happy to bet a similar occurrence will take place in a Corbyn-led government.

And I can tell you've never met a Corbynite if you think they prioritise Remain over Corbyn Worship

How do you not realize that your logic (single maverick MPs don't have the room to exist) is in & of itself negated by the very example you brought up? Nevertheless, you can bet on something all you want, but when it comes to expelling ideologically-opposed MPs from the parliamentary party, Corbyn hasn't done in more than 4 years what it took BoJo less than 2 months to do, so perhaps that's a tell that what you think is gonna happen isn't actually gonna happen.

Moreover, the MPs in question (especially Duffield) are far from Corbynites, but you wouldn't know that unless you took literally a second to examine who these individual MPs actually are.

but that would be a fantastic way for Corbyn to lose valuable, super marginal seats, then.

He's been doing nothing but supporting Brexit for years and his reward is about to be millions of remainers happily voting for him. I think it's a risk he'll take based on that.

--

My overall point was nothing to do with Corbyn anyway. It was that these Lib Dems are self-defeating idiots who have taken down the party's vote share by at least a few points and I'm surprised some are so dismissive of it. They've come out and said 'don't vote for us'. There's a massive difference between doing a non-existent campaign (which they easily could have done if they wanted these Corbyn Mouthpieces re-elected) and making a public display that their own party doesn't matter. If this is a message that gets repeated any further, its the end in any LD-Lab contests and is an easy print on every Tory leaflet in every Con-LD contest ("Vote Lib Dem Get Corbyn"). It's because of poor message discipline and that there's yet to be a strong rebuttal from the leadership speaks volumes. The downward trajectory of the party going into the campaign was probably inevitable but this event could well hasten and amplify the decline. Which leaves Remainers with Mr 7/10 as our spokesman.

Nuance is something that completely escapes you. I'm not surprised that you think this way, as all the reasoning you've exhibited in your comments here has been extraordinarily shallow. It's unfortunate that you approach such complex problems with this degree of myopia. It's especially unfortunate that you haven't learned in all your years of life that politics, like life itself, is a bit more complex than your simple reductionism.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 13, 2019, 01:28:01 pm
Anyway, the SNP have now joined the LibDems and filed a legal suit with ITV over their decision to make the first debate 1v1. The SNP is citing their position as 3rd largest party, the LibDems cited their competitive poll numbers, numbers that are similar to what Clegg had before the surge. Essentially ITV needed to set out SOME parameters for getting into their debate, they could have been high AF and restricted it to the top two, but setting out none and saying top two looks like you're playing favorites.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Serenity Now on November 13, 2019, 01:31:47 pm
Kantar's first poll of the campaign: Con 37, Lab 27, LDem 17, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 3

This is possibly of some minor interest as throughout the Autumn, Kantar had been consistent in showing Conservative leads of 14pts.

For what it's worth (very little) that poll apparently showed a 1pt Labour lead before demographics were weighted by likelihood to vote. If true the 'interesting' part of this, I guess, is the implied importance for Labour of boosting turnout.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Serenity Now on November 13, 2019, 01:32:58 pm

To me that seems pretty crazy.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 13, 2019, 03:53:20 pm
The lastest yougov poll does it both ways (exclude BXP for voters where BXP have stood down AND just display BXP for everyone)

The result where one removes BXP where BXP is not standing gives

CON    42
LAB     28
LDEM  15
BXP      4
Green   4

The one that have BXP everywhere

CON   39
LAB    26
LDM   16
BXP     9

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/w3ohbvr6zt/Sky_TheTimes_VI_191112_w.pdf

By looking at 2016 Leave vs Remain votes it seems most BXP voters when not given BXP as a choice mostly went CON or Other (BXP rebels?).  For 2016 Remain voters by not having BXP as an option actually shifted some LDEM voters over to LAB (tactical voting now that they see BXP is not there to split the CON vote?)

Anyway this poll seems to show that in Southern seats (where CON mostly won in 2017) the BXP voter are mostly CON voters.  I suspect in the North the BXP voter are much more likely to be LAB Leave voters so BXP running there does take LAB votes that would otherwise go back to LAB if BXP is not running.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Deranged California Suburbanite on November 13, 2019, 04:45:06 pm
A Northern Ireland Poll appears!



DUP: 28% (-1)
SF: 24% (-1)
ALL: 16% (-5)
SDLP: 14% (+6)
UUP: 9% (=)

Polling taken 30 Oct to Nov 1, before Hermon dropped out
Changes from early August



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 13, 2019, 05:10:17 pm
Huh, why is the SDLP surging back into relevance all of a sudden?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 13, 2019, 05:12:16 pm
Sinn Fein are abstentionists, so people feel that's giving the Tories half a seat for free.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 13, 2019, 05:21:06 pm
Sinn Fein are abstentionists, so people feel that's giving the Tories half a seat for free.

The swings suggest that it's mostly Alliance voters switching to them though.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 13, 2019, 05:21:21 pm
Huh, why is the SDLP surging back into relevance all of a sudden?

They are seriously contesting, and potentially likely to win two seats. Foyle has their leader running and its a straight Sinn/SDLP fight there so nobody fears vote splits. South Belfast is kinda a three way, but the DUP are sending out feelers that the seat may already be lost, we just don't know if its going to be to the Alliance or to SDLP. There is also the cross-party endorsements and stand-downs that occurred between the remainers. Contrast this with the UUP who are failing to find good candidates and only really have a shot in F&S and maybe north down if they become the anti-DUP candidate, not the Alliance. But those two are tossups at best, whereas the SLDP's were potentially leaning in their favor before today. Now South Down may even be in the cards.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 13, 2019, 05:35:53 pm
Kantar's first poll of the campaign: Con 37, Lab 27, LDem 17, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 3

This is possibly of some minor interest as throughout the Autumn, Kantar had been consistent in showing Conservative leads of 14pts.

For what it's worth (very little) that poll apparently showed a 1pt Labour lead before demographics were weighted by likelihood to vote. If true the 'interesting' part of this, I guess, is the implied importance for Labour of boosting turnout.

The "certain to vote" figure amongst 18-24 year olds was reportedly a completely ridiculous 10%.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 13, 2019, 07:09:39 pm
DaWN what do you see as the realistic best case scenario for the election? It seems to me that since only Labour or the conservatives can realistically form the government, in most constituencies people should vote Labour even if they aren't enthusiastically for Corbyn.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 13, 2019, 07:19:23 pm
Kantar's first poll of the campaign: Con 37, Lab 27, LDem 17, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 3

This is possibly of some minor interest as throughout the Autumn, Kantar had been consistent in showing Conservative leads of 14pts.

For what it's worth (very little) that poll apparently showed a 1pt Labour lead before demographics were weighted by likelihood to vote. If true the 'interesting' part of this, I guess, is the implied importance for Labour of boosting turnout.

The "certain to vote" figure amongst 18-24 year olds was reportedly a completely ridiculous 10%.

Interesting. Of course this is a big feature of polling these days - they are no longer social surveys that ask a political question, but an attempt to guess the 'right' result. The polling failure at the last election was to a great extent a result of that: assumptions being made, polls being adjusted accordingly... and those assumptions turning out to be incorrect.

Not that this means we can simply assume the same will happen again and in the exact same way and direction (that's voodoo), but it is something to be eternally aware of.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 13, 2019, 08:03:17 pm
Yeah I think there'll probably be some sort of polling error, but it's very risky to guess what the error would be. Maybe it will be a 2015-style polling error or a 2017-style polling error, or maybe the LibDems or Brexit party are significantly overestimated or underestimated by the polls. Even a regional polling error, if the SNP is overrated by 5% or underrated by 5%, could have a meaningful impact on the results.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: EastAnglianLefty on November 14, 2019, 02:19:11 am
Again, to equate Corbyn himself with Ruth George, the individual pro-Remain Labour MP in question, is disingenuously misguided.

When the time comes, Duffield, George and all the other Remainer Labour MPs will do what Corbyn tells them to or face instant deselection.

One of the underconsidered stories of the past few months has been how few Labour MPs actually got triggered. None of those triggered can be considered a particularly strong Remainer, with the possible exception of Hodge (who was primarily triggered for being a strong critic of Corbyn and who comfortably won the reselection ballot.) Several of those triggered, on the other hand, were on the more Brexit-y wing of the party. There are other things at play besides that, of course, but some conclusions can still be drawn.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Justice Blair on November 14, 2019, 03:05:55 am
Again, to equate Corbyn himself with Ruth George, the individual pro-Remain Labour MP in question, is disingenuously misguided.

When the time comes, Duffield, George and all the other Remainer Labour MPs will do what Corbyn tells them to or face instant deselection.

One of the underconsidered stories of the past few months has been how few Labour MPs actually got triggered. None of those triggered can be considered a particularly strong Remainer, with the possible exception of Hodge (who was primarily triggered for being a strong critic of Corbyn and who comfortably won the reselection ballot.) Several of those triggered, on the other hand, were on the more Brexit-y wing of the party. There are other things at play besides that, of course, but some conclusions can still be drawn.

Yes Dawn is being either woefully wrong about the internal dynamics in the Labour Party or engaging in pearl clutching. There's not a single case of an MP being deselected over being too pro EU & if you think Corbyn has the power to point and deselect ask how Neil Coyle, Ian Murray and the most vitriolic anti-Corbyn MPs sailed through...

There's at least 50 MPs who have rebelled regularly & are actively encouraged and supported by their local party.

There's another 50 who have proved wiling to also rebel against the leadership


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 14, 2019, 06:48:10 am
DaWN what do you see as the realistic best case scenario for the election? It seems to me that since only Labour or the conservatives can realistically form the government, in most constituencies people should vote Labour even if they aren't enthusiastically for Corbyn.

Some kind of Labour-Lib Dem agreement probably. But even that comes with a few caveats
1) I'm not sure Lab+LD on their own reaching a majority counts as realistic and any government with the SNP in it is not a government worth having
2) The Lib Dems have not exactly proven themselves as the sharpest party of them all over the last few days so their ability to actually stop Corbyn doing anything bad is probably limited
3) Let's not forget what happened the last time the Lib Dems went into a coalition... so their ability to actually stop Corbyn doing anything bad is probably limited.

I've been resigned to a bad election outcome for a long time though.

EDIT: It also doesn't mean I think Labour deserves the vote of any Remainer because they don't


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: GoTfan on November 14, 2019, 07:21:22 am
I think the point is that a lot of Lib Dems at least feel they can get something out of Corbyn, while they can't with anyone else.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Helsinkian on November 14, 2019, 09:29:20 am
Conservatives -- party of the working class.



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 14, 2019, 09:38:51 am
Not this **** again.

a) the 'social grade' system was faulty even in the 1970s and is a complete disaster now; it in no way reflects the realities of a service sector economy with a very large elderly population (it is true, by the way, pensioners are routinely rolled into category DE by some polling firms).* I can go into far too much detail about this if anyone is interested: I have done before. But for now: how many people in Great Britain consider, for example, nursing to be a middle class occupation? I suspect not many. I wonder how many people (in the countryside, where this is relevant) consider farmers to be working class? No one.

b) even were this not so, YouGov's peculiar polling methods happen to make their internal numbers completely worthless anyway. It's some real voodoo nonsense. Rubbish.

c) even were this not so, different polling firms internals show very different figures and patterns, not just from YouGov but from each other. In fact the main thing that shows up when one monitors numbers for these categories over even a short period of time (say, a month) is how absurdly volatile they are. Which is not surprising as they are almost random categories by this point.

d) this actually takes us back to a) because there are serious issues with sampling for some of the categories, particularly C2 which is a notorious disaster.

e) even were all of this not so, poll internals are not polls or surveys themselves, but a way of making sure that the poll was conducted with an appropriately balanced sample. The way they are thrown around by people who know this but have commercial reasons to ignore that fact amounts to the pollution of public discourse.

f) you wouldn't give your bank details to a 'Nigerian Prince', you don't believe anything hawked by Matthew Badwin.

*And there are reasons to be a mildly dubious as to how thorough the ones that say they do not do this actually are.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on November 14, 2019, 09:49:07 am
Conservatives -- party of the working class.



It must be all of the economic distress that EU subsidies cause people.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 14, 2019, 09:54:33 am
Not this **** again.

a) the 'social grade' system was faulty even in the 1970s and is a complete disaster now; it in no way reflects the realities of a service sector economy with a very large elderly population (it is true, by the way, pensioners are routinely rolled into category DE by some polling firms).* I can go into far too much detail about this if anyone is interested: I have done before. But for now: how many people in Great Britain consider, for example, nursing to be a middle class occupation? I suspect not many. I wonder how many people (in the countryside, where this is relevant) consider farmers to be working class? No one.

b) even were this not so, YouGov's peculiar polling methods happen to make their internal numbers completely worthless anyway. It's some real voodoo nonsense. Rubbish.

c) even were this not so, different polling firms internals show very different figures and patterns, not just from YouGov but from each other. In fact the main thing that shows up when one monitors numbers for these categories over even a short period of time (say, a month) is how absurdly volatile they are. Which is not surprising as they are almost random categories by this point.

d) this actually takes us back to a) because there are serious issues with sampling for some of the categories, particularly C2 which is a notorious disaster.

e) even were all of this not so, poll internals are not polls or surveys themselves, but a way of making sure that the poll was conducted with an appropriately balanced sample. The way they are thrown around by people who know this but have commercial reasons to ignore that fact amounts to the pollution of public discourse.

f) you wouldn't give your bank details to a 'Nigerian Prince', you don't believe anything hawked by Matthew Badwin.

*And there are reasons to be a mildly dubious as to how thorough the ones that say they do not do this actually are.

This is most likely too America-centric but why cannot the polls instead group the population by education (grad school, university, vocational, and high school etc etc)?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on November 14, 2019, 10:02:02 am
Not this **** again.

a) the 'social grade' system was faulty even in the 1970s and is a complete disaster now; it in no way reflects the realities of a service sector economy with a very large elderly population (it is true, by the way, pensioners are routinely rolled into category DE by some polling firms).* I can go into far too much detail about this if anyone is interested: I have done before. But for now: how many people in Great Britain consider, for example, nursing to be a middle class occupation? I suspect not many. I wonder how many people (in the countryside, where this is relevant) consider farmers to be working class? No one.

b) even were this not so, YouGov's peculiar polling methods happen to make their internal numbers completely worthless anyway. It's some real voodoo nonsense. Rubbish.

c) even were this not so, different polling firms internals show very different figures and patterns, not just from YouGov but from each other. In fact the main thing that shows up when one monitors numbers for these categories over even a short period of time (say, a month) is how absurdly volatile they are. Which is not surprising as they are almost random categories by this point.

d) this actually takes us back to a) because there are serious issues with sampling for some of the categories, particularly C2 which is a notorious disaster.

e) even were all of this not so, poll internals are not polls or surveys themselves, but a way of making sure that the poll was conducted with an appropriately balanced sample. The way they are thrown around by people who know this but have commercial reasons to ignore that fact amounts to the pollution of public discourse.

f) you wouldn't give your bank details to a 'Nigerian Prince', you don't believe anything hawked by Matthew Badwin.

*And there are reasons to be a mildly dubious as to how thorough the ones that say they do not do this actually are.

This is most likely too America-centric but why cannot the polls instead group the population by education (grad school, university, vocational, and high school etc etc)?

In the UK educational attainment is at least as horizontal as it is vertical. So private vs public school can be at leaat as or even more meaningful than PhD vs BA or BA vs vocational work. The point is that you would have to weight for different TYPES as well as levels.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 14, 2019, 10:05:09 am
This is most likely too America-centric but why cannot the polls instead group the population by education (grad school, university, vocational, and high school etc etc)?

They often do, but the huge changes to education policy over the past fifty years and the massive expansion of higher education from the 1990s means that while you're clearly measuring something interesting by doing that, it is no longer that closely related to class.

What they could (and should) do is use occupational breakdowns based on the census categories the ONS use. They don't because of laziness on their part and a certain deranged conservatism on behalf of their clients, many of whom seem to like ABC1C2DE as a sort of comfort blanket.

A couple of firms, I have noticed, ask for income instead: these are mostly newer firms, without legacy clients.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 14, 2019, 11:56:27 am


Just something interesting I saw, and one of the (many) reasons why there is a lot of potential energy trapped right now waiting to explode and throw polling one one of countless directions.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Dereich on November 14, 2019, 12:26:40 pm
What do people make of Corbyn saying that in a hung parliament he would not agree to a coalition with the SNP  (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/13/jeremy-corbyn-dismisses-snp-calls-for-progressive-alliance-labour-sturgeon)(and presumably the Lib Dems) and would force them decide between supporting a Labour minority or the Tories? I'd call it electioneering, but it seems pretty consistent with the Labour position earlier this year around the "national unity government" debate.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 14, 2019, 12:47:48 pm
What do people make of Corbyn saying that in a hung parliament he would not agree to a coalition with the SNP  (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/13/jeremy-corbyn-dismisses-snp-calls-for-progressive-alliance-labour-sturgeon)(and presumably the Lib Dems) and would force them decide between supporting a Labour minority or the Tories? I'd call it electioneering, but it seems pretty consistent with the Labour position earlier this year around the "national unity government" debate.

I think it's his way of rebutting the Tories' charge of 'coalition of chaos' and shoring up Labour's vote in Scotland.

More broadly, *of course* it's electioneering. It's *always* electioneering. It baffles me that people and the media insist on going through this pantomime every time. Every party that's aiming for government will say they won't do a coalition, and every party, when presented with the possibility of taking office in a coalition once the votes are counted, will seek to do so anyway.



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 14, 2019, 02:21:33 pm
I can go into far too much detail about this if anyone is interested: I have done before.

I vaguely remember you discussing that before, but I don't remember all the details, and I'd be very interested if you'd like to elaborate on it.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 14, 2019, 03:54:34 pm
How come Boris gets heckled so much? Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like it happens more often than in previous elections. And divisiveness over Brexit doesn't seem like the explanation because most of the heckling isn't actually about Brexit. The other party leaders, who are polling worse, don't seem to get heckled as much.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 14, 2019, 04:03:31 pm
How come Boris gets heckled so much? Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like it happens more often than in previous elections. And divisiveness over Brexit doesn't seem like the explanation because most of the heckling isn't actually about Brexit. The other party leaders, who are polling worse, don't seem to get heckled as much.

Those who dislike him, really dislike him. He's a British version of Trump.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 14, 2019, 04:07:07 pm
How come Boris gets heckled so much? Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like it happens more often than in previous elections. And divisiveness over Brexit doesn't seem like the explanation because most of the heckling isn't actually about Brexit. The other party leaders, who are polling worse, don't seem to get heckled as much.

He's very polarising and if he turns up in a marginal (which the party leaders will) then roughly half of the people there hate his guts- out of that half, there's bound to be people willing to yell at him. The same thing will certainly happen to Corbyn and quite possibly some of the lesser leaders as well. It's the way of things, for better or worse (alright, definitely for worse).


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Cassius on November 14, 2019, 05:53:55 pm
How come Boris gets heckled so much? Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like it happens more often than in previous elections. And divisiveness over Brexit doesn't seem like the explanation because most of the heckling isn't actually about Brexit. The other party leaders, who are polling worse, don't seem to get heckled as much.

He’s the leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister, therefore he will be heckled. Happened to May and happened to Cameron. It’s kind of axiomatic for almost any Conservative politician that fifty percent of the electorate will hate you with a wild eyed, broiling passion that lends itself to heckling, whilst most of the remaining fifty percent will be, at best, agnostic in their attitude towards you.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 14, 2019, 06:06:37 pm
()

In a surreal turn, here we see Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn photographed holding a blu-ray of a fanmade spinoff movie of an obscure Doctor Who villain from the 1980s. I wish this was fake.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat on November 14, 2019, 06:50:27 pm
()

In a surreal turn, here we see Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn photographed holding a blu-ray of a fanmade spinoff movie of an obscure Doctor Who villain from the 1980s.

This actually improves my opinion of Corbyn.

Quote
I wish this was fake.

I don't.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 14, 2019, 07:24:19 pm
Again, to equate Corbyn himself with Ruth George, the individual pro-Remain Labour MP in question, is disingenuously misguided.

When the time comes, Duffield, George and all the other Remainer Labour MPs will do what Corbyn tells them to or face instant deselection.

One of the underconsidered stories of the past few months has been how few Labour MPs actually got triggered. None of those triggered can be considered a particularly strong Remainer, with the possible exception of Hodge (who was primarily triggered for being a strong critic of Corbyn and who comfortably won the reselection ballot.) Several of those triggered, on the other hand, were on the more Brexit-y wing of the party. There are other things at play besides that, of course, but some conclusions can still be drawn.

Yes Dawn is being either woefully wrong about the internal dynamics in the Labour Party or engaging in pearl clutching. There's not a single case of an MP being deselected over being too pro EU & if you think Corbyn has the power to point and deselect ask how Neil Coyle, Ian Murray and the most vitriolic anti-Corbyn MPs sailed through...

There's at least 50 MPs who have rebelled regularly & are actively encouraged and supported by their local party.

There's another 50 who have proved wiling to also rebel against the leadership

Coyle's at least didn't really "sail through" - voting was quite close and it is credibly reported that some rather dodgy tactics were employed. Your more general point is valid, though.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Beezer on November 15, 2019, 04:03:34 am
Corbyn surge is real and this time around the gap at the beginning of the campaign is smaller than 2 years ago. Comrades, our dreams may become a reality after all.

()

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/coffee-house-shots-live-what-will-happen-in-this-election/


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on November 15, 2019, 04:10:50 am
Corbyn surge is real and this time around the gap at the beginning of the campaign is smaller than 2 years ago. Comrades, our dreams may become a reality after all.

()

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/coffee-house-shots-live-what-will-happen-in-this-election/

Jezza is an outstanding campaigner. Corbyn's Labour is perhaps as good at campaigning as the Tories are bad. Somehow "Let's not tax rich people, let's cut ties with our main economic benefactor across the Channel, and maybe America's impeached president will bestow glory on us" is emphatically less aspirational than Labour's promises to build a fair, equal, and prosperous future.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Helsinkian on November 15, 2019, 05:29:46 am
According to the Wikipedia article Brexit Party is standing in 267 seats, so not quite the 300 that Farage was promising. UKIP has 43 candidates.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 15, 2019, 06:22:48 am
Corbyn surge is real and this time around the gap at the beginning of the campaign is smaller than 2 years ago. Comrades, our dreams may become a reality after all.

()

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/coffee-house-shots-live-what-will-happen-in-this-election/

Jezza is an outstanding campaigner. Corbyn's Labour is perhaps as good at campaigning as the Tories are bad. Somehow "Let's not tax rich people, let's cut ties with our main economic benefactor across the Channel, and maybe America's impeached president will bestow glory on us" is emphatically less aspirational than Labour's promises to build a fair, equal, and prosperous future.

Corbyn's a much better politician than his opponents will ever be willing to admit to themselves, and the Tories' policy proposals have been out of step with most of the country since 2015 (at least), but I'm treating this development with more caution than vindication at the moment.

Yes, Labour is following the basic trajectory they did in 2017, but the Tories are gaining ground, too - something that didn't happen in 2017. The Lib Dems are also polling better than they did 2 years ago and their reasons for jumping to Labour are less obvious than they were then (tactical voting notwithstanding). I'd also note that at least part of the Tories' shifting fortunes in the 2017 campaign was due to the collapse of personal popularity for Theresa May. Johnson isn't anywhere near as popular as May was when she called the 2017 election and his supporters are *much* more devoted than May's ever were; he hasn't got as far to fall and he has a higher floor of support.

We'll see how things play out over the next couple of weeks. The leaders' debates will probably accelerate whatever trends have taken hold by the time they happen.

Also, in yet another installment of me not understanding how politics works, Labour's policy announcement of free broadband (and the nationalization of part of BT to do it) is getting huge  positive media attention and the attacks against it from the Tories and Lib Dems are falling flat. Strange times.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: MillennialModerate on November 15, 2019, 06:23:21 am
What a boring election.

But basically everyone has no one to blame but themselves

Labour for not ditching Corbyn

LibDems for a ridiculous policy of defying the will of the people regardless of what they might say in a second referendum

Brexit - for not fighting the Tories nationwide. If they did I think they could actually win a handful of seats. But not fighting a full campaign has definitely discouraged voters and Farage not running was a putrid mistake because most Brexit party voters look up to him a lot and would be more motivated to vote for them knowing they’d be led by Farage in parliament.

Yawn


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 15, 2019, 07:58:26 am
No polls, but 3 local by-elections in Scotland last night in Dunfermline, Rosyth and Inverness.

Here is the 4 party share in the Scottish by-elections with change on 2017 4 party share. That's the 2017 local elections which took place one month before the GE.

SNP 43.5 (+3.8 )
CON 25.3 (-0.3)
LIB 17.2 (+9.1)
LAB 14.0 (-12.6)



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Ishan on November 15, 2019, 08:18:19 am
What a boring election.

But basically everyone has no one to blame but themselves

Labour for not ditching Corbyn

LibDems for a ridiculous policy of defying the will of the people regardless of what they might say in a second referendum

Brexit - for not fighting the Tories nationwide. If they did I think they could actually win a handful of seats. But not fighting a full campaign has definitely discouraged voters and Farage not running was a putrid mistake because most Brexit party voters look up to him a lot and would be more motivated to vote for them knowing they’d be led by Farage in parliament.

Yawn
Labour isn't New Labour anymore.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on November 15, 2019, 09:26:24 am
What a boring election.

But basically everyone has no one to blame but themselves

Labour for not ditching Corbyn

LibDems for a ridiculous policy of defying the will of the people regardless of what they might say in a second referendum

Brexit - for not fighting the Tories nationwide. If they did I think they could actually win a handful of seats. But not fighting a full campaign has definitely discouraged voters and Farage not running was a putrid mistake because most Brexit party voters look up to him a lot and would be more motivated to vote for them knowing they’d be led by Farage in parliament.

Yawn
Labour isn't New Labour anymore.

And opposing Brexit is a brilliant political strategy for any of the opposition parties, and not only because "the will of the people" has so obviously changed.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 15, 2019, 10:11:56 am


Continued proof that Brexit was just the holding pen for future tories.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: MillennialModerate on November 15, 2019, 10:22:21 am
What a boring election.

But basically everyone has no one to blame but themselves

Labour for not ditching Corbyn

LibDems for a ridiculous policy of defying the will of the people regardless of what they might say in a second referendum

Brexit - for not fighting the Tories nationwide. If they did I think they could actually win a handful of seats. But not fighting a full campaign has definitely discouraged voters and Farage not running was a putrid mistake because most Brexit party voters look up to him a lot and would be more motivated to vote for them knowing they’d be led by Farage in parliament.

Yawn
Labour isn't New Labour anymore.

Yup. And they’re paying the price for it.

New Blair would throttle this Tory party


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 15, 2019, 10:28:15 am


Continued proof that Brexit was just the holding pen for future tories.

I wonder what their methodology is?  Namely did they just ask for party support or excluded BXP as a choice for someone from a seat where BXP is not running.  If former then this result ia significant. If the latter it seems to be a statistical shift as long as we accept that most Southern BXP supports are mostly former CON voters.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 15, 2019, 10:38:50 am

What a boring, brainless troll.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 15, 2019, 10:50:24 am
There was also a ComRes out... I think yesterday? that showed Con 40, Lab 30, LDem 16, BP 7, SNP 4, Greens 3.

So, again, a small upwards Con tick from the Brexit Party. Neither they nor Panelbase are what you'd call 'good', of course.

This whole 'half of constituencies' thing is going to be such a mess for pollsters and for people tying to work out the implications of polls.


They say that they ask for a second-choice party and make appropriate adjustments - claim the effect is Con +1.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Estrella on November 15, 2019, 11:24:09 am
What a boring election.

But basically everyone has no one to blame but themselves

Labour for not ditching Corbyn

LibDems for a ridiculous policy of defying the will of the people regardless of what they might say in a second referendum

Brexit - for not fighting the Tories nationwide. If they did I think they could actually win a handful of seats. But not fighting a full campaign has definitely discouraged voters and Farage not running was a putrid mistake because most Brexit party voters look up to him a lot and would be more motivated to vote for them knowing they’d be led by Farage in parliament.

Yawn
Labour isn't New Labour anymore.

Yup. And they’re paying the price for it.

New Blair would throttle this Tory party

You do realize there already is a party for the metropolitan upper class? A non-insignificant part of Corbyn's success comes from people who are left wing economically and, for the want of a better term, anti-SJW. How exactly would turning the party into Lib Dems but in red help, I don't understand.

In any case, it's not the 90s, when everybody was trying to be the centristest centrist (on the left at least). The strategy worked well then,  but then is then and now is now. Just see my sig.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 15, 2019, 11:36:39 am
worth noting that New Labour was many things, but it wasn't what Tony Blair thinks it is now (i.e. a socially liberal version of Thatcherism). If anything it was the most naked form of populism we've ever seen the party go down, given it mainly consisted of focus grouped targets and catchy slogans that polled well with non-ideological types.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 15, 2019, 11:41:13 am
Some polls recently showing big Tory headline leads also have a near tie in their basic findings before likelihood to vote is taken to account. Clearly the promise to "get Brexit done" has solidified the Tory base and Labour needs to counter that in some way to get voters attention. The announcement on broadband is an excellent start there - more like that please :)

(some interesting polling evidence out recently, too, that adopting a pro "freedom of movement" line might not be the massive vote loser for Labour some have assumed - as so often, it depends on the FRAMING)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: urutzizu on November 15, 2019, 11:48:14 am
worth noting that New Labour was many things, but it wasn't what Tony Blair thinks it is now (i.e. a socially liberal version of Thatcherism). If anything it was the most naked form of populism we've ever seen the party go down, given it mainly consisted of focus grouped targets and catchy slogans that polled well with non-ideological types.

Agree absolutely. If one looks at both their Rethoric and their Actions on things such as Counter-Terrorism/civil liberties, welfare claimants, "antisocials", drug users etc. they were anything but social liberals. I would perhaps coin the term "liberal authoritarians". "Liberal" only in the sense that anyone who didn't fit in their model liberal depoliticized society was treated very illiberaly.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 15, 2019, 12:07:05 pm
Forget the Tory gain in the Panelobase poll.  Note your magnificent Campaigner Corbyn gained nothing. 

Please note most Conservative Remainers are not going to vote Labour this election even tactically.

I guess you think large numbers Conservative Leavers who were going to vote Brexit in the Tory held seat will not vote.   Stop dreaming.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: (CT) The Free North on November 15, 2019, 12:32:19 pm
Given the chart posted on the previous page, it would seem that Labour's continued rise is contingent on the Lib Dems shedding a significant amount of their support. Is that likely given their Brexit posturing and the importance of that issue this time around vs 2017?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: parochial boy on November 15, 2019, 12:53:36 pm
Some polls recently showing big Tory headline leads also have a near tie in their basic findings before likelihood to vote is taken to account.

That would seem to indicate that the pollsters' sampling collectively is still crap, and they know it, and are trying to re-weight to get a "credible" looking score. Which makes it impossible to know who might be the "most" accurate; and tbh, just means they are going to continue coming out with crap until they can address the root problem which is their inability to get the sampling right.

Incidentally, would it be possible to like, ban anyone with a US IP address from posting in this thread or something?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Deranged California Suburbanite on November 15, 2019, 01:02:55 pm
Incidentally, would it be possible to like, ban anyone with a US IP address from posting in this thread or something?

How about you just ignore drivel from Americans you don’t like and let others be?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 15, 2019, 01:23:31 pm
Incidentally, would it be possible to like, ban anyone with a US IP address from posting in this thread or something?

That's not entirely fair as quite a few Americans have made some good posts in this thread. We shouldn't lump these good posters in with MillenialModerate etc. who clearly are talking out of their arses.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 15, 2019, 03:31:29 pm
Incidentally, would it be possible to like, ban anyone with a US IP address from posting in this thread or something?

That's not entirely fair as quite a few Americans have made some good posts in this thread. We shouldn't lump these good posters in with MillenialModerate etc. who clearly are talking out of their arses.

Agreed. The place for mindless venting and baseless speculation is the general discussion forum. Or the Telegraph.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 15, 2019, 04:21:27 pm
That would seem to indicate that the pollsters' sampling collectively is still crap, and they know it, and are trying to re-weight to get a "credible" looking score. Which makes it impossible to know who might be the "most" accurate; and tbh, just means they are going to continue coming out with crap until they can address the root problem which is their inability to get the sampling right.

This almost certainly relates to the issue I was complaining about yesterday: if you have a society marked by strong socio-economic disparities, one in which these are an observable driver of a very high proportion of voter-behaviour no less, but you persist in failing to bother to measure them in appropriate manner, then, well, your surveys will probably be a bit shit won't they.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 15, 2019, 05:19:57 pm
worth noting that New Labour was many things, but it wasn't what Tony Blair thinks it is now (i.e. a socially liberal version of Thatcherism). If anything it was the most naked form of populism we've ever seen the party go down, given it mainly consisted of focus grouped targets and catchy slogans that polled well with non-ideological types.

Arguably built on pillars of sand with all the PFI borrowing.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 15, 2019, 05:20:24 pm
()

In a surreal turn, here we see Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn photographed holding a blu-ray of a fanmade spinoff movie of an obscure Doctor Who villain from the 1980s. I wish this was fake.

Sil. Arguably a parody of the sort of capitalist Thatcher made common...


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 15, 2019, 05:22:00 pm
()

In a surreal turn, here we see Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn photographed holding a blu-ray of a fanmade spinoff movie of an obscure Doctor Who villain from the 1980s. I wish this was fake.

Sil. Arguably a parody of the sort of capitalist Thatcher made common...

I know perfectly well who it is lol. Doctor Who has a proud history of political analogy but I'm not sure Sil was one of its strongest examples.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Anomalocaris🌹 on November 15, 2019, 05:23:24 pm
lmao guys I just realized Jared O'Mara actually managed to stay until dissolution


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 15, 2019, 07:01:22 pm


Ah, good, something about trains. I can finally get into my element. And its a distraction from all the depressing Brexit sh!t.

TL;DR: This is a very stupid idea from a very stupid person in a very stupid party who doesn't have a leg to stand on when accusing Comrade Useless of ill-considered spending plans.

Beeching was an exceptionally unfortunate inevitability of years of mismanagement of the railways. Did it go too far? Absolutely. Was it, in the end, necessary? Absolutely. Reversal of Beeching in itself is therefore immediately impractical because that would involve reinstating thousands of miles of track that serves nobody and sets money on fire. (I'm sure the 20 people in one of those tiny hamlets in Cumbria that had a branch from the Settle & Carlisle line are delighted though.)

That, of course, assumes the infrastructure is still there. Which it isn't. Most of it was built over in the years immediately following the closures, and what wasn't built over is now either nature walks or heritage railways.

Now obviously Mr Shapps is not suggesting the government will reinstate every line closed (as a side note, while Wilson's government did nothing to slow down or reduce the scope of the closures, which is a black mark against it, they were started under the previous Tory government, partially engineered by Transport Sec. Ernest Marples, who had a considerable business interest in motorway construction; such a conflict of interest would hopefully never be allowed today but times being as they are...) but such a vagueness is not appreciated. There's a massive difference between reopening beneficial links and ridiculous branch lines that were only built because setting money on fire was a passtime of Victorian railway companies. Where is the line drawn? What would be economic insanity to rebuild and what would be a worthwhile investment? Does he know? Does he care? I suspect not.

But then we come to the basic problem that the railways that were closed in the 1960s were railways that served the market of the 1960s. The closure of the Great Central Main Line was a huge mistake for instance, but there's no doubt that had it remained open the services provided would have changed with the times - reopening it like for like would do nothing except relieve congestion on a few select journeys out of London (mainly to Rugby, the East Midlands and Sheffield) while doing nothing else for the overall network. It wouldn't even be any good for freight on the West Coast Main Line as that mostly goes to Birmingham and Manchester, which the GC didn't serve. Tolerate it or loathe it, HS2 has the same benefits, except its a high speed route so comes with faster journey times, and actually serves Birmingham and Manchester instead of swerving off in completely the wrong direction. What would be served by spending money on reopening the GC instead of building HS2?

Also, £500m builds you barely anything in this day and age (it cost £85 million to build a couple of bridges and a viaduct in Manchester). Unless Grant here has an idea to drastically reduce the cost of railway construction, which somehow I doubt he does. So what is this? A cynical voter-attracting ploy or is this just Shapps being an idiot? Or both?

There's no doubt the UK rail system needs to plan itself a post-Beeching network (only 50 years too late...) and that will probably require some reopenings. But it needs careful strategic planning, a decision of what new lines will be worthwhile and not just pledging money for a nice shiny policy that everyone can get behind because Beeching is a name that's synonymous with dog sh!t nowadays.  Just a reminder that as idiotic as Corbyn is, 'pledging to throw money at stuff without a real plan or thought to how it'll work' is not unique to Labour.




Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Lord Halifax on November 15, 2019, 07:17:41 pm
worth noting that New Labour was many things, but it wasn't what Tony Blair thinks it is now (i.e. a socially liberal version of Thatcherism). If anything it was the most naked form of populism we've ever seen the party go down, given it mainly consisted of focus grouped targets and catchy slogans that polled well with non-ideological types.

Agree absolutely. If one looks at both their Rethoric and their Actions on things such as Counter-Terrorism/civil liberties, welfare claimants, "antisocials", drug users etc. they were anything but social liberals. I would perhaps coin the term "liberal authoritarians". "Liberal" only in the sense that anyone who didn't fit in their model liberal depoliticized society was treated very illiberaly.

They prefer communitarian. :P


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 15, 2019, 07:51:59 pm
Ah, Ernest Marples! Hilarious man. Not the only notable Conservative minister of the period to raise eyebrows because of ties to the construction industry: there was also Keith Joseph, though in his case there doesn't seem to be any evidence that the (radical, socially disastrous, much regretted) policies he championed were linked to that. Though the possibility does seem to have aided his relations with the various local government rogues he had to deal with: 'one of us!' they, incorrectly, assumed.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 15, 2019, 10:32:46 pm
I think the combined result of the two main parties will be a lot better than people expected. Despite strong dissatisfaction with both parties, most people have a party they clearly dislike more, so people are starting to panic about the possibility of their 'greater evil' party winning and moving to the lesser evil (on both sides of the Brexit debate). The stakes being so high for this election are also increasing the momentum for a shift to the two main parties. The exception will probably be in Scotland where the SNP is the best chance to stop either the Tories or Labour in most seats and they are a good outlet for dissatisfaction with the main two.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: kongress on November 15, 2019, 11:21:53 pm
As an American train enthusiast, I just want to see the railways nationalized so we can no longer see the many ugly brands and liveries that plague the current UK network.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 16, 2019, 02:44:54 am
Something a bit different today. A couple of political scientists constructed an election forecasting model (https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ge2019-pm-and-the-pendulum/) around the concept of pendulum swing, with a little extra weighting given to party leader approval/popularity.

As I understand it, the conceit here is that whenever a party wins an election (i.e. has a 'swing' toward it) its popularity automatically starts decaying away. Over time, the residual popularity of the initial win decays enough that the party loses (i.e. has a 'swing' against it). Notably, the size of the initial win (or a larger win for the incumbent in its first attempt at reelection) determines the 'half life' of the party's decay rate. So, a big win means greater likelihood of winning subsequent elections; a small win means the party will likely lose power more quickly.

The popularity of the incumbent party leader can accelerate/arrest this process, and third party performance is factored in as well; the model doesn't seem to take into account opposition leader popularity, though there's some evidence to say such un/popularity can help exaggerate existing trends.

So what does the model predict for 2019?

Tory: 311
Labour: 268

It's worth keeping in mind these numbers are a function of a distribution; 311 is the most likely result, with a bell curve of possibilities on either side. A Tory majority is, all told, about a 1/3 possibility.

I kind of like this model (no, not for its hopeful result) because it tries to quantify a gut feeling I think a lot of people have about governments wearing out their welcome. It's also reassuringly predictive. In the paper this article was based on, the model predicted the eventual 'winner', i.e. the party that got to form the government, in every election but once since 1929 (the model called the 1951 election wrong. Go figure.)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 16, 2019, 03:04:41 am
Ah, Ernest Marples! Hilarious man. Not the only notable Conservative minister of the period to raise eyebrows because of ties to the construction industry: there was also Keith Joseph, though in his case there doesn't seem to be any evidence that the (radical, socially disastrous, much regretted) policies he championed were linked to that. Though the possibility does seem to have aided his relations with the various local government rogues he had to deal with: 'one of us!' they, incorrectly, assumed.

Also fled the country to avoid tax evasion charges... via the Night Ferry sleeper train.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Justice Blair on November 16, 2019, 03:13:01 am
What a boring election.

But basically everyone has no one to blame but themselves

Labour for not ditching Corbyn

LibDems for a ridiculous policy of defying the will of the people regardless of what they might say in a second referendum

Brexit - for not fighting the Tories nationwide. If they did I think they could actually win a handful of seats. But not fighting a full campaign has definitely discouraged voters and Farage not running was a putrid mistake because most Brexit party voters look up to him a lot and would be more motivated to vote for them knowing they’d be led by Farage in parliament.

Yawn

Yawn this shows you don’t know a lot about British politics.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 16, 2019, 09:20:40 am
For reasons that genuinely escape me, the LibDems seem to have endorsed the same "permanent government surplus" plan that went down like a cup of cold sick when Liz Kendall put it forward in the 2015 Labour contest.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 16, 2019, 10:05:08 am
()

Good chart. The tories are standing three more than labour because 4 NI conservatives are running in safe unionist seats and won't get their deposits back, and of course team blue are not standing in the speakers seat.

Sourced from the BBC.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 16, 2019, 10:13:26 am
Its actually the first TV debate (a straight Johnson v Corbyn one) just this Tuesday (on ITV)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Cassius on November 16, 2019, 10:46:09 am
For reasons that genuinely escape me, the LibDems seem to have endorsed the same "permanent government surplus" plan that went down like a cup of cold sick when Liz Kendall put it forward in the 2015 Labour contest.

As I understand, the proposal is for ‘current spending’ (welfare payments et al) to be covered by taxation, whilst ‘worthwhile investment’ will be funded by borrowing, so not quite a British version of a balanced budget amendment.

Of course, it’s just posturing for the ‘fIsCaLlY cOnSeRvAtIvE but SoCiAlLy LiBeRaL’ technocracy crowd that the Lib Dem’s have been gunning full bore for since Swinson took over. Not that most of them will understand the distinction between current and investment spending.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 16, 2019, 10:46:39 am
Its actually the first TV debate (a straight Johnson v Corbyn one) just this Tuesday (on ITV)

Anyway, the SNP have now joined the LibDems and filed a legal suit with ITV over their decision to make the first debate 1v1. The SNP is citing their position as 3rd largest party, the LibDems cited their competitive poll numbers, numbers that are similar to what Clegg had before the surge. Essentially ITV needed to set out SOME parameters for getting into their debate, they could have been high AF and restricted it to the top two, but setting out none and saying top two looks like you're playing favorites.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 16, 2019, 11:05:53 am
For reasons that genuinely escape me, the LibDems seem to have endorsed the same "permanent government surplus" plan that went down like a cup of cold sick when Liz Kendall put it forward in the 2015 Labour contest.

As I understand, the proposal is for ‘current spending’ (welfare payments et al) to be covered by taxation, whilst ‘worthwhile investment’ will be funded by borrowing, so not quite a British version of a balanced budget amendment.

Of course, it’s just posturing for the ‘fIsCaLlY cOnSeRvAtIvE but SoCiAlLy LiBeRaL’ technocracy crowd that the Lib Dem’s have been gunning full bore for since Swinson took over. Not that most of them will understand the distinction between current and investment spending.

That seems a rather reasonable stance to have with allowances for recessions.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 16, 2019, 11:08:28 am
()

Good chart. The tories are standing three more than labour because 3 NI conservatives are running in safe unionist seats and won't get their deposits back.

I can't see the image. Can you upload it to an image host (such as imgur)?

fixed.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Cassius on November 16, 2019, 11:18:21 am
For reasons that genuinely escape me, the LibDems seem to have endorsed the same "permanent government surplus" plan that went down like a cup of cold sick when Liz Kendall put it forward in the 2015 Labour contest.

As I understand, the proposal is for ‘current spending’ (welfare payments et al) to be covered by taxation, whilst ‘worthwhile investment’ will be funded by borrowing, so not quite a British version of a balanced budget amendment.

Of course, it’s just posturing for the ‘fIsCaLlY cOnSeRvAtIvE but SoCiAlLy LiBeRaL’ technocracy crowd that the Lib Dem’s have been gunning full bore for since Swinson took over. Not that most of them will understand the distinction between current and investment spending.

That seems a rather reasonable stance to have with allowances for recessions.

From what I can see on current spending it’s a return to the Osbornist view of surpluses needing to be maintained regardless of the wider economic picture, so I guess no allowances for counter-cyclical expenditure. Also, the definition of investment can be argued - from what I’ve read it will only apply to capital projects in the Lib Dem package, even though many (not me, but I’m not an economist) would argue that education and even childcare could be viewed as a form of investment.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 16, 2019, 11:34:01 am
The chances are that this (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50443430) won't lead anywhere, but it's worth keeping half an eye on just in case.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 16, 2019, 11:35:13 am
The chances are that this (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50443430) won't lead anywhere, but it's worth keeping half an eye on just in case.

Indeed. This (https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/general-election2019--boris-johnson-20891412.amp?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar&__twitter_impression=true) also seems unlikely to have much lasting impact ... but a girl can dream.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 16, 2019, 01:14:05 pm
For reasons that genuinely escape me, the LibDems seem to have endorsed the same "permanent government surplus" plan that went down like a cup of cold sick when Liz Kendall put it forward in the 2015 Labour contest.

It's far from the best policy they could have come up with, but a policy that doesn't go down well with the internal Labour electorate isn't one that will necessarily go down badly with the types of voter the Lib Dems need to win seats.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 16, 2019, 01:26:54 pm
The chances are that this (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50443430) won't lead anywhere, but it's worth keeping half an eye on just in case.

Indeed. This (https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/general-election2019--boris-johnson-20891412.amp?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar&__twitter_impression=true) also seems unlikely to have much lasting impact ... but a girl can dream.
Given that Corbyn was endorsed by David Duke this would be a stupid game to play


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 16, 2019, 02:30:14 pm
Three London constituency polls were published by Deltapolls and reported on by The Guardian here.  (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/16/election-2019-london-polls-show-lib-dem-surge) Overall, they show a similar picture  to what I talked about a while back on the wealthy, remainy, 'slice' of Western London. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=342118.msg7038735#msg7038735) There's a third constituency here from the Jewish Barnet region, which confirms that even as the non-slice London keeps moving towards Labour, the Jewish vote remains Corbyn's metaphorical ulcer.

Important quote from guardian, which probably signals that all three would go LD if the Oranges keep polling well enough:

Quote
-Most Labour and Lib Dem supporters are prepared to vote tactically if their preferred party is out of the running.

-Labour supporters are willing to switch to the Lib Dems in overwhelming numbers – in all three seats by enough to give the Lib Dems victory.

-Lib Dem supporters tend to prefer Labour, but far less decisively. If they can’t have a Lib Dem MP, quite a few would vote Conservative, in each case by enough to increase the Tory majority.


()

()

Images sourced from guardian article in post.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 16, 2019, 03:05:53 pm
FPP is a cancer. There's a lot I like about Ed Miliband, but his contribution to torpedoing AV will go down as a black mark in history.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 16, 2019, 03:18:40 pm
The chances are that this (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50443430) won't lead anywhere, but it's worth keeping half an eye on just in case.

Indeed. This (https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/general-election2019--boris-johnson-20891412.amp?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar&__twitter_impression=true) also seems unlikely to have much lasting impact ... but a girl can dream.
Given that Corbyn was endorsed by David Duke this would be a stupid game to play

No he hasn't. Duke commented on the reports about Corbyn's 'English irony' statement (widely misreported in the press, but never mind that) in 2018. Duke hasn't made an endorsement and if he did Corbyn would likely have the political sense to denounce it right away. Unlike Johnson.

FPP is a cancer. There's a lot I like about Ed Miliband, but his contribution to torpedoing AV will go down as a black mark in history.

Miliband did lots wrong, but this one isn't on him.

In any case, in the case of Finchley and Wimbledon, this is probably good news for the anti-Tory forces, as those seats are currently held by Tories and have never really been in reach for Labour. Kensington is currently held by Labour, but it was a *super* marginal seat, and the Tory candidate's showing in that poll is actually down about 4 points on their 2017 total. If some wise dame does a bit more polling in the lead up to election day and gives a clear indication of which party is in second place, I suspect there will be a bit of anti-Tory herding behind them.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 16, 2019, 04:02:42 pm
Some good new for the Tories in this weekends polls

BMG 0 0 0 0
YouGov +3 0 0 0
Deltapoll +4 +1 -5 0
ComRes +1 +3 -2 -2
Opinium +3 -1 -1 0



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 16, 2019, 04:05:18 pm
We don't all have to have the constituency poll discussion again, do we?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 16, 2019, 04:20:24 pm
We don't all have to have the constituency poll discussion again, do we?

We don't. However they are rare enough to post when they show up.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 16, 2019, 07:06:43 pm
Some good new for the Tories in this weekends polls

BMG 0 0 0 0
YouGov +3 0 0 0
Deltapoll +4 +1 -5 0
ComRes +1 +3 -2 -2
Opinium +3 -1 -1 0

From some of them yes. Though with the caveat that some of the ones showing the best numbers look very strange, and we all know what that often means. The general lack of agreement between firms continues...


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 16, 2019, 07:28:33 pm
The polls showing the Tories on 44-45% are apparently saying some other weird and wonderful things, such as 90% of over-60s are going to vote. One also apparently has a massive (and unexplained) rise in Johnson's personal rating.

The constituency polls are also not that recent, in particular the Kensington one was taken before Gyimah's comments about Dent Coad - which do not appear to have gone down well locally.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Annatar on November 16, 2019, 08:04:12 pm
According to the Economist's General Election tracker, on October 30th the Conservatives had a 10% lead over Labour, on November 16th they had a 12% lead. So far there has been no narrowing but Labour still has 4 weeks left to gain votes.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: parochial boy on November 16, 2019, 08:10:47 pm
see what you wanna see innit


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 16, 2019, 08:18:27 pm

Doesn't help that if you drew up a list of 'Britain's most obviously dodgy pollsters' then the Venn Diagramme between that list and the list of firms with contracts with the Sunday papers right now would... well...


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 16, 2019, 11:04:52 pm

Doesn't help that if you drew up a list of 'Britain's most obviously dodgy pollsters' then the Venn Diagramme between that list and the list of firms with contracts with the Sunday papers right now would... well...

I usually am not receptive to the "Polls are junk, ignore them!" argument but I am more receptive to it for the UK than most contexts.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 17, 2019, 01:29:32 am
Electoral Calculus has made some changes to their model that I thought were interesting. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Quote
This latest update has cut the predicted Conservative majority from over a hundred to around fifty. We have also improved the handling of seats where parties do not stand candidates, and improved the tactical voting feature in the user predictor.

The major change is the new baseline. Our modelling works by applying regression techniques (sometimes also called MRP or RPP) to detailed polling information to learn how voters with particular demographic and political characteristics tend to vote on average. This information is then applied to the census and political data of each seat to get an estimate of the current voting intention of each seat. The new baseline is based on recent polling and should give a more accurate "shape" of political opinion through the country.

Following the Brexit party's decision not to stand in half the seats, our predictors now assume that Brexit support is only counted by respondents who live in a seat where there will be a Brexit candidate. Using this convention, measured Brexit party support will appear to have halved, being around 4pc-5pc rather than 8pc-10pc. YouGov have announced they will poll on this basis, but other pollsters might not. When using the user predictor, use the smaller number to avoid over-estimating Brexit support.

The current estimate, based on a 10-point Tory lead, is reasonably in line with expectations (perhaps slightly higher than expected), showing around 350 Tory seats and 215-ish for Labour. For the purposes of this post, I'll focus on uniform swings from the Tories to Labour from the projections, to keep things simple (of course a major factor will be where support for other parties ends up). A 1% swing from the Tories to Labour (a swing from the projected percentages, not from 2017) results in 326 Tories to 232 seats for Labour, even though the Tory popular vote margin over Labour is 8-9 points. Another 1% swing means the Tories have a slight net loss from 2017, while Labour also loses 20 seats, this is with a 6-7 point Tory popular vote lead (so a significant national swing to the Tories from Labour). From there the changes are less, a further 1% swing results in 308-247, then 302-253, and with a virtually tied popular vote the Tories still have a significant lead in seats, 300-255 (of course they probably are ejected from government in this scenario).

This is just one model, though the use of MRP may make it more credible. It is an interesting dynamic, and if true the Tory position is a lot more precarious than the national polls make it seem. It does seem to go against the fact that Leave won most constituencies. However, a lot of the constituencies with very high Leave votes that Boris is trying to flip also seem to have strong Labour majorities, so a big swing that reduces but does not eliminate the Labour majority in these seats would be useless to the Tories in terms of seats. I haven't researched this in depth, please link me to research others have done on this, but this is another source of uncertainty for this election.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 17, 2019, 03:41:42 am
I think a Conservative majority of 50 is at the top end of realistic projections here.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 17, 2019, 06:10:48 am
I think a Conservative majority of 50 is at the top end of realistic projections here.

I must confess, I'm all over the place how to read the state of play. The polls aren't good for Labour, but they're also not bad, and not really as positive for the Tories as the commentariat portrays them. Labour's policy announcements are going down well and Corbyn's TV appearances have been pretty good, but his rock bottom personal approval numbers seemed baked in. Johnson hasn't had a great week, but his middling/positive personal approval rating seems untouchable; why he isn't as unpopular as Corbyn still baffles me. With 3 1/2 weeks to go, anything from a Labour plurality to a Tory landslide seem possible, but the upshot of most people's analyses is that the Tories have a near-to-full majority locked in.

Meanwhile, I think IPSOS is going to release a poll for Esher & Walton some time soon. My landline just got called for a pretty extensive survey.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 17, 2019, 06:22:30 am
If the polls look like this on Election Day then Boris clearly wins. However, I think that the margin will most likely be closer and there is a significant possibility of a big Labour surge.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 17, 2019, 07:17:22 am
I know most of the British posters here are either true red Labour supporters, even with Corbyn as leader, or you may not like Corbyn but your political heart remains true red and you still hope for a Labour victory.

Even so, can you not admit Boris, as a seeming street fighting supporter of Brexit during the referendum vote, may be gaining the votes of a significant number of Labour Leavers because of his strong stand to complete Brexit now when it must be completed or become lost in a hung or Labour controlled Parliament? In 2017 these Labour supporters stuck with Corbyn due to the fact that a actual leave date was two years off, Corbyn seemed to be a Leaver, Corbyn’s negatives were not as clear, and they may not in the June 2017 been drawn to May, who had been a patrician Tory who had recently been a Remainer?

Is it not possible Boris is successfully making this election into a Brexit election?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 17, 2019, 07:34:01 am
I don't think that theory is supported by any of the evidence - polling, anecdotal, or otherwise. Most Labour Leavers care more about the NHS/austerity/etc. than they do about the EU, and those that don't are pretty tribal about hating the Tories. Corbyn was attacked in 2017 for being ambivalent about Brexit and had an approval rating pretty much the same as now; there hasn't been much to change those dynamics since.

The idea that this vote is a 'Brexit election' is, and always has been, more of a (Tory) slogan than an analysis. No election is dominated by a single issue. The media spent most of the past week and a half dwelling on candidate selection scandals, and the big policy items discussed have been immigration, Labour's broadband pledge, and the floods in the Northeast. Brexit's being discussed, sure, but it's not the defining issue some would like it to be.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 17, 2019, 07:36:31 am
This is interesting:

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ge2019-pm-and-the-pendulum/

If the Tories win big, it breaks a model that's called GE's since the war.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 17, 2019, 08:48:16 am
I don't think that theory is supported by any of the evidence - polling, anecdotal, or otherwise. Most Labour Leavers care more about the NHS/austerity/etc. than they do about the EU, and those that don't are pretty tribal about hating the Tories. Corbyn was attacked in 2017 for being ambivalent about Brexit and had an approval rating pretty much the same as now; there hasn't been much to change those dynamics since.

The idea that this vote is a 'Brexit election' is, and always has been, more of a (Tory) slogan than an analysis. No election is dominated by a single issue. The media spent most of the past week and a half dwelling on candidate selection scandals, and the big policy items discussed have been immigration, Labour's broadband pledge, and the floods in the Northeast. Brexit's being discussed, sure, but it's not the defining issue some would like it to be.

Sky's coverage of the election is generally OK (and certainly better than the BBC's) but they lose important marks for simply headlining it all as "THE BREXIT ELECTION" - not even a qualifying question mark!


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 17, 2019, 08:51:34 am
One also apparently has a massive (and unexplained) rise in Johnson's personal rating.

Was this Deltapoll? If so, when combined with the obviously odd business of LibDem support dropping by a third in a week and transferring all to the Tories, we can say 'bad sample' and draw a line through it.

Edit: O.K. I've seen their uploaded tables and... this is a bad poll, I'll just leave it at that.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 17, 2019, 09:21:14 am
If the polls look like this on Election Day then Boris clearly wins. However, I think that the margin will most likely be closer and there is a significant possibility of a big Labour surge.

Even ignoring the polls that look... strange... then, yes, if the election was today you'd be shocked at anything other than a majority, the question would be the size of it. But as you say there's a long time to go, essentially a month. Two things to remember in addition to that: firstly, that the campaign has been very low-key so far, and secondly that everyone involved being disliked makes the potential for volatility higher (in all sorts of directions!) than was historically normal.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Ishan on November 17, 2019, 09:32:55 am
What a boring election.

But basically everyone has no one to blame but themselves

Labour for not ditching Corbyn

LibDems for a ridiculous policy of defying the will of the people regardless of what they might say in a second referendum

Brexit - for not fighting the Tories nationwide. If they did I think they could actually win a handful of seats. But not fighting a full campaign has definitely discouraged voters and Farage not running was a putrid mistake because most Brexit party voters look up to him a lot and would be more motivated to vote for them knowing they’d be led by Farage in parliament.

Yawn

Yawn this shows you don’t know a lot about British politics.
If Labour ran on a pro-Brexit campaign, they would lose tons of seats and the Lib Dems would definitely have 60 something seats.
The Lib Dems are a Pro-EU party.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Kyng on November 17, 2019, 10:14:46 am
This is interesting:

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/ge2019-pm-and-the-pendulum/

If the Tories win big, it breaks a model that's called GE's since the war.

CON 311, LAB 268? Good grief, I hope that doesn't happen >_< . That probably means that:

1) Boris has a good chance of being able to cling on as PM (depending on what happens with the minor parties, there is the possibility of Corbyn becoming PM by assembling a very weak 'rainbow coalition');
2) Even if Corbyn doesn't get in, he'll probably still be able to stay on as Labour leader, on the basis that the party's number of seats in Parliament went up;
3) Whoever does become Prime Minister is going have a very hard time getting their Brexit plans through Parliament, because the numbers for a Brexit deal simply won't be there.

As someone who can't stand either Corbyn or Boris, and is sick of Brexit deadlock and uncertainty... this outcome sounds to me like the worst of all possible worlds.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 17, 2019, 11:09:08 am
It would be hilarious, in a very dark way.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: LabourJersey on November 17, 2019, 11:11:21 am
I know it's too early to discuss this, but if Corbyn were to resign after the election due to a bad Labour performance, who would be the likely candidates to replace him? I hear names like John McDonnell and Emily Thornberry but I obviously don't know what's the actual sentiment on the ground among Labour members and I'm curious.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 17, 2019, 11:21:02 am
Entirely off topic, but due to the traffic on this thread, the Aberfanepisode of 'The Crown' is probably one of the greatest and saddest hours of TV you will see this year.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 17, 2019, 11:35:43 am
McDonnell doesn't really want to be leader, and the party would likely want somebody a bit younger.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 17, 2019, 11:46:40 am
One also apparently has a massive (and unexplained) rise in Johnson's personal rating.

Was this Deltapoll? If so, when combined with the obviously odd business of LibDem support dropping by a third in a week and transferring all to the Tories, we can say 'bad sample' and draw a line through it.

Edit: O.K. I've seen their uploaded tables and... this is a bad poll, I'll just leave it at that.

What makes it bad ? Is it because it shows almost a third of 2017 LDEM voters going to CON ?  I agree that looks fishy.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaymichaud on November 17, 2019, 12:04:50 pm
I know it's too early to discuss this, but if Corbyn were to resign after the election due to a bad Labour performance, who would be the likely candidates to replace him? I hear names like John McDonnell and Emily Thornberry but I obviously don't know what's the actual sentiment on the ground among Labour members and I'm curious.

Probably some social democrat who isn't too centrist but also doesn't shake the table too much.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 17, 2019, 12:08:16 pm
Entirely off topic, but due to the traffic on this thread, the Aberfanepisode of 'The Crown' is probably one of the greatest and saddest hours of TV you will see this year.

Not sure if a 'good' depiction of that is something that I'd be able to sit through, but I'll file the recommendation away.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on November 17, 2019, 12:17:09 pm
I know it's too early to discuss this, but if Corbyn were to resign after the election due to a bad Labour performance, who would be the likely candidates to replace him? I hear names like John McDonnell and Emily Thornberry but I obviously don't know what's the actual sentiment on the ground among Labour members and I'm curious.

The fact that Keir Starmer isn't leader is dumb. But for him to not replace Corbyn is simply unthinkable.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 17, 2019, 01:08:15 pm
Entirely off topic, but due to the traffic on this thread, the Aberfanepisode of 'The Crown' is probably one of the greatest and saddest hours of TV you will see this year.

Not sure if a 'good' depiction of that is something that I'd be able to sit through, but I'll file the recommendation away.

It's gut wrenchingly visceral. And it's because there's a level of respect shown for the town and the victims that it feels that way. I cried.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 17, 2019, 01:56:30 pm
I know it's too early to discuss this, but if Corbyn were to resign after the election due to a bad Labour performance, who would be the likely candidates to replace him? I hear names like John McDonnell and Emily Thornberry but I obviously don't know what's the actual sentiment on the ground among Labour members and I'm curious.

The fact that Keir Starmer isn't leader is dumb. But for him to not replace Corbyn is simply unthinkable.

He has been very good on Brexit - whether he has all the needed skills to be leader is another question tho.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Gary J on November 17, 2019, 03:06:57 pm
I know it's too early to discuss this, but if Corbyn were to resign after the election due to a bad Labour performance, who would be the likely candidates to replace him? I hear names like John McDonnell and Emily Thornberry but I obviously don't know what's the actual sentiment on the ground among Labour members and I'm curious.

The left wing faction, which controls the Labour Party, will want to elect one of its own to replace Corbyn. That means under no circumstances can they permit someone like Keir Starmer to win. The left faction is far more interested in cementing total control of the Labour Party than in winning general elections.

I would not be surprised if someone like the totally obscure and untalented Rebecca Long-Bailey gets elected. We can then look back at Corbyn's leadership as a golden age of able statesmanship.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 17, 2019, 07:43:19 pm
I am not going to list all the Antisemitism charges against Labour.   There seems to be a new one at least every other day.  Here is a new one.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7693489/amp/Labour-Election-candidate-ran-secret-Facebook-group-advises-party-Holocaust-deniers.html?__twitter_impression=true

I do not see how Labour recovers in this atmosphere.  The continuing charges are worse than any of the complaints against the Tories.   I am sure this is why Corbyn’s satisfaction ratings are so low.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Annatar on November 17, 2019, 09:11:50 pm
G. Elliott Morris is a leftist hack it seems, he looks at a model that shows the range of Tory seats between 326-388 and he says he foresees a hung parliament.

 https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1196199682751565828


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 17, 2019, 09:19:21 pm
G. Elliott Morris is a leftist hack it seems, he looks at a model that shows the range of Tory seats between 326-388 and he says he foresees a hung parliament.

 https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1196199682751565828

It seems like his personal opinion of how things will ultimately turn out, not him saying what the polls show right now (as I said right now a Tory majority is almost inevitable but on December 12 a Tory majority is far from inevitable)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Annatar on November 17, 2019, 09:54:33 pm
That may be true.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 17, 2019, 10:04:15 pm
It seems like his personal opinion of how things will ultimately turn out, not him saying what the polls show right now (as I said right now a Tory majority is almost inevitable but on December 12 a Tory majority is far from inevitable)

Yes: it is important to note that the official campaign period did not start until the 6th of November and that very little has happened since then - the tone has been subdued and the main news has been the business with the Brexit Party withdrawing half its candidates.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Annatar on November 17, 2019, 10:15:43 pm
Some thoughts from Matt Singh on how swings are occurring nationally vs in the marginal seats.

https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1196041829533323264


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 18, 2019, 02:19:15 am
Neil O’Brien the Tory MP for Harborough in Leicestershire in the East Midlands expresses the feeling about how much better this campaign feels than the 2017 campaign. It is just an anecdotal view of differences between the campaigns of 2017 and 2019 from a Tory perspective.

https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/11/neil-obrien-there-are-still-weeks-to-go-but-for-backbenchers-like-me-campaign-2019-feels-much-much-better-than-2017.html





Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Justice Blair on November 18, 2019, 02:50:15 am
I know it's too early to discuss this, but if Corbyn were to resign after the election due to a bad Labour performance, who would be the likely candidates to replace him? I hear names like John McDonnell and Emily Thornberry but I obviously don't know what's the actual sentiment on the ground among Labour members and I'm curious.

Probably some social democrat who isn't too centrist but also doesn't shake the table too much.

ha.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 18, 2019, 06:01:25 am
Neil O’Brien the Tory MP for Harborough in Leicestershire in the East Midlands expresses the feeling about how much better this campaign feels than the 2017 campaign. It is just an anecdotal view of differences between the campaigns of 2017 and 2019 from a Tory perspective.

https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/11/neil-obrien-there-are-still-weeks-to-go-but-for-backbenchers-like-me-campaign-2019-feels-much-much-better-than-2017.html




I mean, he would say that though? Hardly a groundbreaking revelations that an incumbent seeking reelection wants to impress that his party is doing well relative to their botched previous campaign.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 18, 2019, 06:06:24 am
With just a week to go in 2017, Tories were still briefing journalists about how they were going to win all sorts of weird and wonderful Labour "heartland" seats - and some Labour people agreed with them.

Its easy to forget, with the benefit of hindsight, how utterly unexpected that exit poll was.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 18, 2019, 06:19:39 am
With just a week to go in 2017, Tories were still briefing journalists about how they were going to win all sorts of weird and wonderful Labour "heartland" seats - and some Labour people agreed with them.

Its easy to forget, with the benefit of hindsight, how utterly unexpected that exit poll was.

Yeah, one of the reasons I'm not going with my gut instinct is that I completely brought into the narrative last time, pessimistically viewed the a Labour campaign boat as irrelevant noise or herding and ended up looking a total Chicken Little on election day.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 18, 2019, 07:27:02 am


Oh look, an abysmal poll for the Lib Dems. Almost as if letting some of your candidates publicly claim your own irrelevance is a very bad idea. Who could have seen that coming.

Obviously terrible news but I'm beginning to be at peace with it. After all, in a democracy, you get what you vote for, and if Remainers want Mr 7/10 to represent them, then that is more than their prerogative. They just shouldn't expect any sympathy from me when he goes straight back to his old ways the minute after the election.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 18, 2019, 07:52:23 am
Neil O’Brien the Tory MP for Harborough in Leicestershire in the East Midlands expresses the feeling about how much better this campaign feels than the 2017 campaign. It is just an anecdotal view of differences between the campaigns of 2017 and 2019 from a Tory perspective.

https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2019/11/neil-obrien-there-are-still-weeks-to-go-but-for-backbenchers-like-me-campaign-2019-feels-much-much-better-than-2017.html




I mean, he would say that though? Hardly a groundbreaking revelations that an incumbent seeking reelection wants to impress that his party is doing well relative to their botched previous campaign.

Would he necessarily say this.  I do not think so.

2017 and 2019 are not duplicates.

I remember there was a god deal of anger that May had called an election. She actually had a small but seemingly working majority.  It seemed she called the election only to get a larger majority to ride out the next Four years. That started the election getting out of May’s control

She realized she could not just run on Brexit, when the required leave date was 2 years away.

She attempted to change the details of how the elderly could use the equity in there home to finance their care after retirement.  The change was actually beneficial for most middle and lower income people.  However she could never explain it.

Then she refused to debate Corbyn.

She began to look like a deer in the headlights of a car.  No politician ever wants to develop that appearance.

This year it became quite clear that an election was necessary to resolve all the Brexit question. I do not think the opposition parties distinguished themselves by proving this Parliament could not resolve the Brexit question.  Boris did distinguish himself by a new
Brexit deal.

Then we have the collapse  of Corbyn’s reputation.  We have Labour’s anti Semitic problems.
We have Corbyn refuse to set out a coherent Brexit policy.  It is assumed that he cannot obtain a majority government.  It seems he will have to allow another Independence referendum to get SNP support.  He will have to allow another Brexit referendum to get Liberal Democrat support.

Finally, we have Corbyn’s Marxist reputation.  It terrifies the business community and Remainder Tories.  Swinson has already promised not to make him PM.  

IT IS CLEAR THIS YEAR THAT CORBYN IS THE DEER IN THE HEADLIGHTS.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Cassius on November 18, 2019, 09:19:55 am
I would be extremely wary of writing off Corbyn as the dead weight that will drag Labour down to ignominious defeat, especially before the debates. He did well in his own right during the last campaign, in which most commentators automatically assumed that Labour were headed for their worst defeat since 1983/1931, mostly because of him, which obviously didn’t happen. Since then he has continued evolving into a fairly capable public speaker and debater, in contrast to the leadership elections where he won solely because he was the most left wing candidate in the race and Labour supporters didn’t like being flagellated by their failed leadership cadre.

I think the debates will be important in this campaign. They weren’t in 2017 (aside from the very fact of May’s absence illustrating her shortcomings as a campaigner), or in 2015 (because they were dull and safe bar Farage’s bust ups with the other party leaders and the audience), but were somewhat in 2010 (due to the novelty value and the fact they gave the Prince of Platitudes, Nick Clegg, a massive publicity boost). This time however you’ve got Johnson vs Corbyn, the Rumble in the Jungle, but with two semi-competent British politicians as opposed to Ali and Foreman. That head to head tomorrow and a constellation of other debates of various formats dibbly dobbling up until Election Day. These will get a lot of replay I expect (both online and on the TV).

This will be crucial, as we’re seeing Johnson, a generally weak public speaker and debater, being pitched against Corbyn, who is fairly steady, albeit not particularly entertaining, speaker, then subsequently being pitched into the bear pit of the multi-party debates. Although he may surprise me (as he has done in the past), I expect Johnson to perform very badly in these debates, as I think he will contrast poorly with Corbyn in the head to head, and will be pummelled to bits in the multi-party debate as every other leader will gang up on him. On the other hand, the debates probably offer Corbyn his best chance to put forward Labour’s policy agenda and to directly contrast it with Johnson’s lack of one (I also think Johnson’s attacks on the Labour agenda will probably fall flat), which could define the rest of the campaign and lead to a shift to Labour.

Or nothing could happen and the polls could remain stock still as everybody’s made up their minds that they hate the other lot. But I think the debates probably are Labour’s best chance to change the dynamic of the campaign.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: urutzizu on November 18, 2019, 09:54:24 am
Good news for Jeremy, retaking second place from Swinson.



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 18, 2019, 09:54:46 am
I don't agree with the idea the debates will be important (a strategically shaved donkey vs a propped up classroom skeleton doesn't sound like a gamechanger to me but as I'm not a swing voter who's to say...) but overall a lot of people on both sides are very quick to rush to judgements, yes.

I think its clear from the polls that they have no idea what kind of electorate is going to turn out on polling day; I doubt anyone knows. That, and movement due to campaign quality and the inevitable tactical squeeze/Remainer idiocy (delete as appropriate) will be what determines the outcome. A Tory majority is the most likely option but pretending its the only possibility is a great way to look like an idiot when the results come in.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 18, 2019, 11:05:53 am
No one cares.

It's Christmas. No one gives a sh!t. There's more important things to focus on. You have voters who decided who they were going to vote for since before the GE and the rest won't give it thought until after the presents are bought and they've had the works night out and they have nothing else to worry about.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Zinneke on November 18, 2019, 11:57:28 am
While we are at the discussion as to the differences/similarities between 2017 and 2019, I remember watching a documentary on the Labour Party of the 2017 vote, the same one that had Stephen Kinnock look shocked as Corbyn clawed his way back and had to receive counselling from the ex-Danish PM (who is incidently also his wife); What struck me the most though was how he and many other Labour MPs effectvely ran a campaign against both the Tories and Corbyn on the doorstep, saying that they knew they would lose but they need a strong voice against Momentum Labour from the electorate. I wager that that kind of rhetoric is no longer in play?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 18, 2019, 12:05:27 pm
While we are at the discussion as to the differences/similarities between 2017 and 2019, I remember watching a documentary on the Labour Party of the 2017 vote, the same one that had Stephen Kinnock look shocked as Corbyn clawed his way back and had to receive counselling from the ex-Danish PM (who is incidently also his wife); What struck me the most though was how he and many other Labour MPs effectvely ran a campaign against both the Tories and Corbyn on the doorstep, saying that they knew they would lose but they need a strong voice against Momentum Labour from the electorate. I wager that that kind of rhetoric is no longer in play?

Hard to say. Corbyn's popular with a pretty big chunk of Labour supporters, if not a majority. I suspect most Labour MPs with a decent shot at (re)election have figured out how to read the proverbial room with each conversation.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 18, 2019, 12:09:34 pm
Also, just so we're all aware: the only story anyone's paid attention to for the past 48 hours is Prince Andrew's bone chilling interview with ITV about his (apparent total lack of) remorse for associating with Jeffrey Epstein.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 18, 2019, 12:13:03 pm
An important thing to note about Corbyn is that while he's ultra-popular with Labour supporters, he's slightly less popular than most of the major diseases among non-Labour supporters. And Labour need some of the latter to win. Normally I'd say this means that Corbyn's Labour has a high floor but a low ceiling (as far as such a remark would be useful when talking about British politics), but given Boris has a fairly similar weakness, it makes this election even more unpredictable. Which side will benefit the most from 'hold their nose' voters?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 18, 2019, 12:52:53 pm
No one cares.

It's Christmas. No one gives a sh!t. There's more important things to focus on. You have voters who decided who they were going to vote for since before the GE and the rest won't give it thought until after the presents are bought and they've had the works night out and they have nothing else to worry about.

I made one of my long trips up to the University to have a chat about the White Whale today. Hardly a poster to be seen, not even in farmers fields. A few, but not many. Strikingly few. People just haven't been gripped by the election yet (very little has happened in the campaign so that's rational enough) and are, for the moment, focused on other things.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 18, 2019, 03:21:23 pm
I saw two interesting articles.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/11/16/the-latest-ipsos-mori-government-satisfaction-ratings-are-worse-for-the-incumbent-than-major-faced-just-before-blairs-ge1997-landslide/
()
Ignore the 2017 in the axis.

I don't think Labour would be winning a 1997-style landslide if it had a good leader, Brexit will polarize the electorate more regardless. However Labour should be winning this election, either as the largest party or a majority. It would be a hugely damning indictment of Corbyn's leadership if Boris actually wins a majority, though if the Tories are the largest party it would be a bit of a bad result for Labour (though in most such scenarios Labour would form a government, then it'd be that they underperformed without doing so badly as to actually lose the election).

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/11/16/for-how-long-can-johnson-continue-to-defy-gravity/

Quote
The problem that the Conservatives have is that while Johnson is himself popular, the government is not. The PM’s unusually strong +2 rating has to be set against the net satisfaction score of the government he leads of a fairly awful -55. This is a disparity that cannot endure. Political gravity may be temporarily suspended but it will, sooner or later, come into play: either Johnson will scramble back to the cliff-edge by pulling the government’s rating up towards his own, or else he will plummet chasmwards as opinion turns against him. My firm expectation is the latter because the fundamentals driving that unpopularity are much stronger; the big uncertainty is when it happens.

The article also cited Johnson's weak performances on the campaign trail and vulnerabilities that could drive down his personal popularity too.

Clearly this election is extremely winnable for Labour. So far they are blowing it on a historic level (with extremely high stakes), but it isn't yet over for them and Labour can still come back, and it's hard to see them doing as badly as the polls show (or more accurately, it's hard to see the Tories doing as well, at least in terms of seats). Labour's actual election campaign seems ok so far, too early to tell but there is potential there. I think Corbyn got a big opportunity with a debate against only Johnson, and Labour's message seems like a good one (the 'real change' slogan could seize on the dissatisfaction with the government). Currently without major changes the Tories probably end up with a 2015-style majority, but it could easily be that they suffer a net loss of seats and cannot form a government.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 18, 2019, 04:58:18 pm
I'm amazed at how Boris get's away with everything; financial scandal, sex scandal. His past. All of it. Tory candidates getting away with casual anti-Muslim statements.

The press will get bored with Corbyn. Eventually.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Gustaf on November 18, 2019, 05:06:51 pm
So, I'm no expert and obviousy there are multiple volatility factors this election that makes it unpredictable, but that said...

I'd be a bit surprised if the Tories don't win.

1. Yes, Brexit isn't the only thing but it does seem to be a huge dominant issue. And while the Leave vote seems ready to coalesce around Johnson the Remain vote will be split between different parties to a much higher degree.

2. One reason for this is that Corbyn is so extremely toxic. Even though the alternative is Boris f**ing Johnson he's waaaay behind in popularity. And fundamentally those reasons are legitimate. I mean, when Al decides to leave the Labour Party that says something about the poor state they're in. :P

3. I imagine that for less political swingy voters who are a bit tuned out the promise to resolve Brexit with what can be sold as "not that dangerous" I'd imagine to be fairly powerful. My impression from many of my own British friends is that getting it settled and done as an issue in a way that doesn't feel scary is a fairly common sentiment at this stage.

There is obviously a lot more going on but I imagine those things will ultimately be enough to deliver a Tory majority.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: vileplume on November 18, 2019, 07:54:13 pm
An important thing to note about Corbyn is that while he's ultra-popular with Labour supporters, he's slightly less popular than most of the major diseases among non-Labour supporters. And Labour need some of the latter to win. Normally I'd say this means that Corbyn's Labour has a high floor but a low ceiling (as far as such a remark would be useful when talking about British politics), but given Boris has a fairly similar weakness, it makes this election even more unpredictable. Which side will benefit the most from 'hold their nose' voters?

Corbyn is not that popular with Labour voters, a large chunk aren't keen on him in the slightest (hence why his national approval ratings are so utterly dire). Labour Party members on the other hand (very different group of people) do genuinely seem to see him as a Messiah-esque figure. Though sadly for him their views are totally out of whack with everyone else's, even Labour voters.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 18, 2019, 08:42:59 pm
An important thing to note about Corbyn is that while he's ultra-popular with Labour supporters, he's slightly less popular than most of the major diseases among non-Labour supporters. And Labour need some of the latter to win. Normally I'd say this means that Corbyn's Labour has a high floor but a low ceiling (as far as such a remark would be useful when talking about British politics), but given Boris has a fairly similar weakness, it makes this election even more unpredictable. Which side will benefit the most from 'hold their nose' voters?

Corbyn is not that popular with Labour voters, a large chunk aren't keen on him in the slightest (hence why his national approval ratings are so utterly dire). Labour Party members on the other hand (very different group of people) do genuinely seem to see him as a Messiah-esque figure. Though sadly for him their views are totally out of whack with everyone else's, even Labour voters.

To provide some data to this point, I just went and clicked on one of the most recent polls found here.  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election)

Approval of Corbyn: 25% approve, 68% Disapprove

Approval among those who voted Labour in 2017: 55% Approve, 39% Disapprove
Among other groups: 6% approve within 2017 Tory voters, 15% withing 2017 LD voters, and 21% withing other party voters.

In context BoJo is treading water in this poll.
Approval among those that voted Conservative in 2017: 77% Approve - 21% Disapprove
Among other groups: 29% approve within 2017 Labour voters, 48% withing 2017 LD voters, and 39% withing other party voters.


A leader of a political party should normally be getting the kind of support BoJo, or for that matter Trump, gets within your own base. Your base should be able to hold firm even if the opposition hates you. When your base holds firm a politician can survive with piss-poor approvals. If your base has cracked then there are serious problems going on.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 18, 2019, 10:10:43 pm
The Observer is conducting riding surveys that are to be reported in the Guardian.  The first reported surveys cover the previously Tory seats in London that have become marginal due to Brexit.  They are Finchley and Golders Green (what a name!), Kensington, and Wimbledon.

Finchley
      Conservative 46% change from 2017 -1%
      Lib Dem 32% change +25%
      Labour 19% change -25
       Other 3
             Hypothetical races with only one opposition party viewed with chance of election
                     Conservative 53%
                     Labour 37%
                     Lib. Dem 7%
               OR
                     Conservative 44%
                     Lib. Dem  50%
                     Labour 5%

Kensington
           Conservative 36%   Change -6
            Lib. Dem 33%.  +25
            Labour 27% -16
            Other 4

                  Hypos
                      Conservative 51%
                      Labour 41%
                      Lib Dem 5%
             OR
                      Conservative 38%
                      Lib. Dem  56%
                      Labour 5%

Wimbledon
          Conservative 38%.   Change -6
           Lib. Dem 36%.   +21
           Labour 23%      -13
           Other 3
                 Hypos
                  Conservative 48%
                   Labour. 41%
                   Lib. Dem 10%
     OR
                   Consevative 38%
                    Lib. Dem.   56%
                    Labour       6%

To each their own view of the dilemmas created.

See https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/16/election-2019-london-polls-show-lib-dem-surge

      


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 19, 2019, 04:06:43 am
An important thing to note about Corbyn is that while he's ultra-popular with Labour supporters, he's slightly less popular than most of the major diseases among non-Labour supporters. And Labour need some of the latter to win. Normally I'd say this means that Corbyn's Labour has a high floor but a low ceiling (as far as such a remark would be useful when talking about British politics), but given Boris has a fairly similar weakness, it makes this election even more unpredictable. Which side will benefit the most from 'hold their nose' voters?

Corbyn is not that popular with Labour voters, a large chunk aren't keen on him in the slightest (hence why his national approval ratings are so utterly dire). Labour Party members on the other hand (very different group of people) do genuinely seem to see him as a Messiah-esque figure. Though sadly for him their views are totally out of whack with everyone else's, even Labour voters.

I did say supporters not voters, and there is a difference. You are right though.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 19, 2019, 06:42:27 am
British politics being an absolute horror show, tis now the turn for antisemitic remarks to emerge from some Conservative candidates as well, at Leeds North East (which happens to be the home of pretty much all Leeds Jewry...), and at Aberdeen North. In the latter case, there were some rather crassly homophobic remarks as well.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 19, 2019, 07:09:34 am
An interesting detail from ICM's poll published yesterday (Con 42, Lab 32, LDem 13, BP 5, SNP 3, Greens 3, Others 2) is that they observe that where the Brexit Party is standing, their vote is (at the moment) holding up quite well.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: parochial boy on November 19, 2019, 08:34:53 am
Incidentally, has anyone ever (tried to) poll overseas voters?

Obviously, there is no way you'd ever know how they vote seeing as they just get subsumed into home constituencies - but I was reading the other day that, as a result of various efforts, the number of overseas registered voters has jumped from  about 50'000 to 300'000 in the last 4/5 years - and that's almost starting to be a somewhat marginally relevant voting bloc.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 19, 2019, 08:57:02 am


I guess the Lib-Dems and SNP had a reason to be pissy about the first debate being 1v1...but they are going to BBC's in three days!

Also this just seems like way too many debates for any particular one to have a chance at standing out.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 19, 2019, 10:03:41 am
There's risk in the first debate; viewers might not like any of them. I loathe both; I'm hoping they eat each other :)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Lord Halifax on November 19, 2019, 10:13:06 am
There's risk in the first debate; viewers might not like any of them. I loathe both; I'm hoping they eat each other :)
Corbyn is too skinny to eat, more meat on Johnson.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 19, 2019, 10:56:21 am
Big dump of leaks from Aaron Banks' twitter today.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: urutzizu on November 19, 2019, 11:07:32 am
Incidentally, has anyone ever (tried to) poll overseas voters?

Obviously, there is no way you'd ever know how they vote seeing as they just get subsumed into home constituencies - but I was reading the other day that, as a result of various efforts, the number of overseas registered voters has jumped from  about 50'000 to 300'000 in the last 4/5 years - and that's almost starting to be a somewhat marginally relevant voting bloc.

I have not seen a poll, but my guess is that most lean Conservative. While there is a very vocal anti-brexit crowd among the Central European Diaspora, they are outnumbered by a far larger number of British Citizens living in Australia, Canada and the US, who could be expected to be rather more sympathetic to the whole Brexit Empire Commonwealth nostalgia. And the largest group of Expats on the Continent are in retiree-heavy Spain, and that is a highly pro-tory age group. Anecdotal, of course, but I seem to remember an Interview that the BBC did with them before the Referendum and many of them seemed to be highly supportive of leave, seemingly oblivious to the consequences it would have for them personally.

Perhaps this is the Reason why the Conservatives have traditionally been supportive of demands to allow votes for life for British living abroad, while the Labour Party has been opposed (despite wanting to extend the franchise to other groups); they suspect that overseas voters lean conservative.
Or perhaps it could be rather a more old fashioned tory idea of an ethnic bond of all British people, and allowing overseas Citizens to vote is a a way of 'preserving their connection to the motherland'.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: parochial boy on November 19, 2019, 12:24:03 pm
Incidentally, has anyone ever (tried to) poll overseas voters?

Obviously, there is no way you'd ever know how they vote seeing as they just get subsumed into home constituencies - but I was reading the other day that, as a result of various efforts, the number of overseas registered voters has jumped from  about 50'000 to 300'000 in the last 4/5 years - and that's almost starting to be a somewhat marginally relevant voting bloc.

I have not seen a poll, but my guess is that most lean Conservative. While there is a very vocal anti-brexit crowd among the Central European Diaspora, they are outnumbered by a far larger number of British Citizens living in Australia, Canada and the US, who could be expected to be rather more sympathetic to the whole Brexit Empire Commonwealth nostalgia. And the largest group of Expats on the Continent are in retiree-heavy Spain, and that is a highly pro-tory age group. Anecdotal, of course, but I seem to remember an Interview that the BBC did with them before the Referendum and many of them seemed to be highly supportive of leave, seemingly oblivious to the consequences it would have for them personally.

Perhaps this is the Reason why the Conservatives have traditionally been supportive of demands to allow votes for life for British living abroad, while the Labour Party has been opposed (despite wanting to extend the franchise to other groups); they suspect that overseas voters lean conservative.
Or perhaps it could be rather a more old fashioned tory idea of an ethnic bond of all British people, and allowing overseas Citizens to vote is a a way of 'preserving their connection to the motherland'.

Yeah, that makes intuitive sense - but my thinking on that is that; firstly, 300k is only a small proportion of the British diaspora as a whole - and without knowing whether registered voters are more concentrated among certain communities than others it's hard to be able to tell beyond that.

Adding to that, I believe a fair few of the spanish-retirees still maintain UK residencies and the right to vote at home, and I would imagine that the US/Aus/Canada communities probably combine a lot of people who have been in those countries for decades and therefore lost the right to vote - and that the newcomers, owing to immigration restrictions of the 21st century, will likely be overwhelmingly highly educated professionals. Ie the class who tend to be broadly "liberal" ideologically and allegedly decamping from the Tories en masse. (and I imagine there is a solid - immigrant who naturalised British and has now returned to their country of origin demographic too; particularly famously in parts of Pakistan).


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Old School Republican on November 19, 2019, 01:26:32 pm
Jermey Corbyn is so bad that he makes Ilhan Omar look good compared to him. Corbyn needs to lose in a landslide


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 19, 2019, 01:29:29 pm
Jermey Corbyn is so bad that he makes Ilhan Omar look good compared to him. Corbyn needs to lose in a landslide

Wow, thank you for the insight, Old School Republican, very cool!

Can we please deport people who know nothing about British politics from the thread?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: (CT) The Free North on November 19, 2019, 01:30:25 pm
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-poll-kantar-idUKKBN1XT21T?taid=5dd4329d9007110001d2ca4b&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 19, 2019, 01:35:38 pm
The latest YouGov - for some time one of the more favourable pollsters for the Tories - has them down 3 to 42 and Labour up 2 to 30 (their highest with this poll since the spring) Taken very recently too.

Just a blip? Possibly, but tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 19, 2019, 01:38:20 pm
I am surprised Theresa May is running again.  Last few PMs seems to have retired from politics after they left the PM spot.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 19, 2019, 02:04:21 pm
tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

Cleggmania didn't change anything though. It gave Clegg a momentary blip but the overall effect on the election was actually fairly minimal. And that's when he was the clear winner over Brown and Cameron, whereas both Johnson and Corbyn are so bad at debating I'm not sure there can be a clear winner. And even if there is a decisive winner, there's still three weeks until the election, plenty of time for other shiny things to make people forget the debate even happened.

I am surprised Theresa May is running again.  Last few PMs seems to have retired from politics after they left the PM spot.

As I said in my predictions, her becoming the female Ted Heath would be such a perfect end to her story.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: parochial boy on November 19, 2019, 02:07:51 pm
Wait, there's a debate tonight? You all have my deepest sympathies :(


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 19, 2019, 02:11:37 pm
Wait, there's a debate tonight? You all have my deepest sympathies :(

Don't worry, I'll be joining most of the country in avoiding watching it or any part of it like the plague. Frankly I'd rather have a root canal than watch Boris and Corbyn debate.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: kongress on November 19, 2019, 02:21:31 pm
tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

Cleggmania didn't change anything though. It gave Clegg a momentary blip but the overall effect on the election was actually fairly minimal. And that's when he was the clear winner over Brown and Cameron, whereas both Johnson and Corbyn are so bad at debating I'm not sure there can be a clear winner. And even if there is a decisive winner, there's still three weeks until the election, plenty of time for other shiny things to make people forget the debate even happened.

I am surprised Theresa May is running again.  Last few PMs seems to have retired from politics after they left the PM spot.

As I said in my predictions, her becoming the female Ted Heath would be such a perfect end to her story.

So this implies that there will be diddling accusations after her death?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 19, 2019, 02:26:54 pm
tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

Cleggmania didn't change anything though. It gave Clegg a momentary blip but the overall effect on the election was actually fairly minimal. And that's when he was the clear winner over Brown and Cameron, whereas both Johnson and Corbyn are so bad at debating I'm not sure there can be a clear winner. And even if there is a decisive winner, there's still three weeks until the election, plenty of time for other shiny things to make people forget the debate even happened.

I am surprised Theresa May is running again.  Last few PMs seems to have retired from politics after they left the PM spot.

As I said in my predictions, her becoming the female Ted Heath would be such a perfect end to her story.

So this implies that there will be diddling accusations after her death?

I meant sulking on the backbenches for 25 years lol. I certainly wouldn't accuse the ex-Prime Minister of such things (happy, any lawyers reading?)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 19, 2019, 02:47:10 pm
Is the debate being streamed online somewhere?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 19, 2019, 02:49:52 pm
Remember to treat any post-debate snap-polls with extreme caution. They are worse than regular polls, and regular UK polling is as we have all said here, iffy. Now, I don't think anyone can "win" this debate, but this just needs to be stated for cautions sake.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 19, 2019, 02:51:07 pm
Is the debate being streamed online somewhere?

Purgatory.

BBC and Sky streams are usually easier to find online; best hit YouTube and see what you can find.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 19, 2019, 02:55:59 pm
It seems Yougov will do a snap poll after the debate.  Of course it is not clear who will watch this debate.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 19, 2019, 02:58:03 pm
It seems Yougov will do a snap poll after the debate.  Of course it is not clear if anyone will watch this debate.

FTFY


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 19, 2019, 03:28:36 pm
Stream:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kEB5pqWpJw


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Lumine on November 19, 2019, 03:30:37 pm
Tried to watch the debate, but couldn't, it seemed absurdly cringeworthy.

Also, Boris is absolutely incompetent as a debater. From what I saw before moving onto something else, Corbyn - hopelessly mediocre as he is - seemed to be doing a lot better.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 19, 2019, 03:32:04 pm
Neither of them can be bothered.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Cassius on November 19, 2019, 03:34:10 pm
Well this is surreal


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Tirnam on November 19, 2019, 03:37:48 pm
Why can't we have a real debate?

No time-limited respond, no question from the audience, no audience at all, ...


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 19, 2019, 03:40:08 pm
Why can't we have a real debate?

No time-limited respond, no question from the audience, no audience at all, ...

The UK audience, with decades of panel debates behind them love the sound of themselves and their own quips and their own laughter to nauseating levels.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 19, 2019, 03:50:49 pm
Tories being utter c-nts with CCHQPress twitter changed their name to 'factcheckUK.'


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Cassius on November 19, 2019, 03:55:12 pm
This is gloriously shambolic.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Fremont Speaker Roblox on November 19, 2019, 03:55:57 pm
The time limits were hilariously strict. Like, they couldn't finish a single sentence before being told to stop lmao.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Zaybay on November 19, 2019, 03:56:44 pm
Both party leaders arent really doing well in this debate, but the gap between how well Corbyn is doing and how well Johnson is doing is rather wide.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 19, 2019, 04:08:01 pm
The UK collectively lost that debate. Just like I expected, nobody won.



Remember those snap polls I warned  you about? The only thing they confirm is this debate sucked.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 19, 2019, 04:12:37 pm
Damn that was a letdown.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Coastal Elitist on November 19, 2019, 04:14:13 pm
Johnson definitely won because he made the debate all about Brexit. Although the debate itself was a sh**t show. The moderator barely gave any time to answer questions and then at the end said that they didn't get to as many questions as they were hoping, lol. Also having the candidates shake hands and pledge to be more civil was just cringe worthy. The quickfire format at the end was dumb to and asking a question about Prince Andrew was also cringe

I don't expect this debate to shift opinion though.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 19, 2019, 04:31:38 pm
The UK collectively lost that debate. Just like I expected, nobody won.


Who could have seen that one coming.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 19, 2019, 04:55:15 pm
don't understand why Corbyn couldn't say "I will remain personally neutral in the second referendum rather than divide the country etc" rather than awkwardly repeat his line about giving a second referendum a couple of times.

Boris annoyed me intensely in how he answered the Brexit/Scottish questions, but I've long found him an irritating public presence even relative to other Tory politicians, so I can't be the best judge. I guess his strategy of talking about his Brexit deal as often as possible was to ensure he would be talking about it on the news, but it was aggrevating to watch. Corbyn speaks a bit slow for me, but that's probably better than BoJo's nonsense stream of words.

Never cringed harder at a debate than at Etchingham's "WHY CANT YOU SHAKE HANDS" gimmick. Do we really need to treat politicians like they're seven year olds who have just had a tiff? Especially because all things considered, both were pretty genial relative to what they could have been (maybe BJ thought he would look a bit mean ripping into Corbyn too hard ?)

lmao at the Prince Andrew question making Boris's previous question look tactless.

Also ban audiences from these debates imo. They do nothing but waste our time with their generic questions and rehearsed interruptions to throw the opposing candidates.

In conclusion: basically no winner at all and no real effect in the grand scheme of things.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 19, 2019, 04:58:11 pm
Seven year olds having a tiff would be an improvement.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 19, 2019, 04:58:37 pm
YouGov / Sky News

Post debate scores

Trustworthy
Corbyn 45
Johnson 40

Prime ministerial
Corbyn 29
Johnson 54

Likeable
Corbyn 37
Johnson 54

In touch with ordinary people
Corbyn 59
Johnson 25


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 19, 2019, 04:58:52 pm
Jermey Corbyn is so bad that he makes Ilhan Omar look good compared to him. Corbyn needs to lose in a landslide

Wow, thank you for the insight, Old School Republican, very cool!

Can we please deport people who know nothing about British politics from the thread?

There's a vicious antisemite running for Prime Minister of a country with nuclear weapons. This ceased being solely about the UK a long time ago.

We've already got at least two racists in control of nuclear weapons, so a third won't make much of a difference.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 19, 2019, 05:02:57 pm
Jermey Corbyn is so bad that he makes Ilhan Omar look good compared to him. Corbyn needs to lose in a landslide

Wow, thank you for the insight, Old School Republican, very cool!

Can we please deport people who know nothing about British politics from the thread?

There's a vicious antisemite running for Prime Minister of a country with nuclear weapons. This ceased being solely about the UK a long time ago.

We've already got at least two racists in control of nuclear weapons, so a third won't make much of a difference.

Also, corbyn isn't antisemitic. Doesn't matter how many times you say it, it doesn't make it true.

Meanwhile, if those YouGov polls are.to be believed (yes, yes, grain of salt and all), Corbyn has probably come out ahead. His personal ratings were so low before, after all, he couldn't help but make a good impression.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Deranged California Suburbanite on November 19, 2019, 05:08:36 pm
Jermey Corbyn is so bad that he makes Ilhan Omar look good compared to him. Corbyn needs to lose in a landslide

Wow, thank you for the insight, Old School Republican, very cool!

Can we please deport people who know nothing about British politics from the thread?

There's a vicious antisemite running for Prime Minister of a country with nuclear weapons. This ceased being solely about the UK a long time ago.

We've already got at least two racists in control of nuclear weapons, so a third won't make much of a difference.

Also, corbyn isn't antisemitic. Doesn't matter how many times you say it, it doesn't make it true.

Meanwhile, if those YouGov polls are.to be believed (yes, yes, grain of salt and all), Corbyn has probably come out ahead. His personal ratings were so low before, after all, he couldn't help but make a good impression.

Good old dead cat bounce.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 19, 2019, 05:10:40 pm
Jo Swinson...being very...you know...Blair (slight exasperation) in how...you know...she talks.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 19, 2019, 05:12:18 pm
Jo Swinson...being very...you know...Blair (slight exasperation) in how...you know...she talks.

If she doesn't wipe the floor with the two jokers that have been up tonight at the multi-party debate she should just give up with politics.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 19, 2019, 05:23:45 pm
Sturgeon doing well.

Not that I'm biased.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 19, 2019, 05:27:24 pm
tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

Cleggmania didn't change anything though. It gave Clegg a momentary blip but the overall effect on the election was actually fairly minimal

There can certainly be a pretty good argument that it stopped the Tories getting a majority in that election, with the consequences that we are all familiar with.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Tintrlvr on November 19, 2019, 05:29:19 pm
tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

Cleggmania didn't change anything though. It gave Clegg a momentary blip but the overall effect on the election was actually fairly minimal

There can certainly be a pretty good argument that it stopped the Tories getting a majority in that election, with the consequences that we are all familiar with.

Also the LDs were meandering in the mid-teens before Cleggmania. They didn't get 30+% of the vote as looked possible at the peak of Cleggmania, but they did get mid-20s, which was a big difference. Maybe less so in seats.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 19, 2019, 05:35:51 pm
Anyway, the debate.

Given how far Corbyn was behind Johnson on most measures beforehand, I think he will be happy with basically a draw. And significantly more Tories think he did well than Labourites were impressed by Johnson.

Not a game changer in itself, but maybe evidence the Tories don't have it all sewn up yet.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Anomalocaris🌹 on November 19, 2019, 06:02:53 pm
Well-deserved.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 19, 2019, 07:31:37 pm
Anyways, I think the debate went well for Jeremy Corbyn and serves as a reminder that Boris Johnson being an incredibly polarizing figure is hardly an asset when the aim of the Conservative Party is winning a majority - a repeat of 2017 won't do and a one-on-one debate with Corbyn was always going to push many people towards Labour.

Jeremy Corbyn could have wiped the floor with Boris Johnson if instead of evading his question, he had remarked that he wouldn't campaign in the referendum because he wants "the people to decide". This would still constitute a kind of evasion but would be more clever and would stand as a nice foil to Boris Johnson's polarizing rhetoric.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Ishan on November 19, 2019, 07:33:19 pm
tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

Cleggmania didn't change anything though. It gave Clegg a momentary blip but the overall effect on the election was actually fairly minimal. And that's when he was the clear winner over Brown and Cameron, whereas both Johnson and Corbyn are so bad at debating I'm not sure there can be a clear winner. And even if there is a decisive winner, there's still three weeks until the election, plenty of time for other shiny things to make people forget the debate even happened.

I am surprised Theresa May is running again.  Last few PMs seems to have retired from politics after they left the PM spot.

As I said in my predictions, her becoming the female Ted Heath would be such a perfect end to her story.
Why did Clegg do worse than Kennedy in seats?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Cigarettes & Saints on November 19, 2019, 07:34:18 pm
Seriously I get that many people here hate Corbyn which is hardly surprising if you're in any way right-wing, but mucking up this thread just ranting about how terrible he is about as insightful and productive as that clique who spammed up the KY Governor election thread circle jerking about how obviously Titanium Safe R the election was.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Vosem on November 19, 2019, 07:34:48 pm
Jermey Corbyn is so bad that he makes Ilhan Omar look good compared to him. Corbyn needs to lose in a landslide

Wow, thank you for the insight, Old School Republican, very cool!

Can we please deport people who know nothing about British politics from the thread?

There's a vicious antisemite running for Prime Minister of a country with nuclear weapons. This ceased being solely about the UK a long time ago.

Take this noise pollution somewhere else dude, no one cares about your opinion and no one knows who you are! This is a thread for discussing the UK election, not a place for spewing second-rate invective lifted from the Daily Mirror or the Daily Mail.

Please leave, thanks.

No comment about his education? You're slipping, man. It's always sad to see.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 19, 2019, 07:40:16 pm
If the debate was actually aimed at providing a forum for a productive discussion then I suspect we would have seen something like the Clinton-Trump debates where both candidates are speaking to two different countries. There is a reason why BoJo kept punching at corbyn on Brexit after all. But the debates were entirely unproductive and like I said earlier, the country lost tonight.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 19, 2019, 08:02:20 pm
I did not watch it and I gather that I was correct in my decision. As far as impact, I presume the main thing will be a reminder that the election is 'real' - this has been such a low-key campaign thusfar that that isn't a minor matter. Though, for the record, if the general view is that it was a draw, that means a strategic loss for Johnson given Corbyn's low approval ratings.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 19, 2019, 08:24:45 pm
I do not think that Corbyn is antisemitic. He just refuses to deal with those that inhabit his party or speak at the same rallies.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 19, 2019, 08:32:00 pm
With Tories in the low 40s in most polls and Labour in the high 20s or at 30 in most polls, I do not see them getting anywhere near as close as they did in 2017 without the collapse of the Lib Dem or some real tactical voting.  I do not yet see either really happening.

The Tories are benefitting from the collapse of the Brexit Party.  Farage is making a fool out of himself.  I am sad to see it.  He could be leading the swing to the Tories rather than causing it by becoming a fool.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 19, 2019, 10:37:32 pm
The audience probably shouldn't be allowed to laugh and jeer in the debate, that factors into what the people at home think when they should just focus on the points the candidates make. This isn't a partisan thing because the audience laughed and jeered at both candidates.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 20, 2019, 01:11:34 am
The audience probably shouldn't be allowed to laugh and jeer in the debate, that factors into what the people at home think when they should just focus on the points the candidates make. This isn't a partisan thing because the audience laughed and jeered at both candidates.

I suppose you're right, but I've always enjoyed listening to audience reactions. They're a kind of instantaneous snap poll of whatever the person speaking has just said that cuts through the bullsh!t and bluster. They're especially useful in the age of social media where partisans on either side (online or in commentary panels on TV afterwards) will spin *everything* as pro-us/anti-them.

I think it would be useful to have a debate with no audience but with a more prosecutorial moderator and/or a format that allows the contestants more time to speak freely. Have that alongside other debates where there is an audience and you might get the best of both worlds. 


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 20, 2019, 01:59:10 am
Johnson definitely won because he made the debate all about Brexit.

ITV decided beforehand to make the first half of the debate focused on Brexit. The second half was on other topics, including the NHS where Corbyn did substantially better than Johnson did.


Tories being utter c-nts with CCHQPress twitter changed their name to 'factcheckUK.'

This appears to be getting a lot of coverage, with pretty universal condemnation; even right-wing hacks like Janet Hart-Brewer have denounced it. Twitter's also made a formal statement saying that they will swiftly discipline any account that tries this again.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 20, 2019, 02:04:26 am
I'm amazed at how many people said both did well.



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: urutzizu on November 20, 2019, 05:05:22 am
Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have a feeling that this confirmation bias at play here, though.

The TV audience yesterday was 6.7 Million by the way.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 20, 2019, 05:54:13 am
6.7 million viewersv.  Not a good number at all.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 20, 2019, 06:29:19 am
6.7 million viewersv.  Not a good number at all.

Based on what? The assorted 2010 and 2015 election debates ranged between 2 and 9 million viewers, and the numbers out today are just the overnights. People who watch on catch up aren't counted, nor are the masses of people who watch clips of the debate online.

Some more detailed figures from the YouGov after action poll here:



A trend worth keeping an eye on: Whenever Johnson, or to a lesser extent the Tory party in general, has a lead in various 'attributes' (more likeable, more relatable, better on the NHS, etc.) it's almost always because of softer support for Labour/Corbyn rather than a higher regard for the Tories. Put another way: Tories are lock step behind Johnson and his party no matter what while Labour supporters are more ambivalent. This dynamic was also present in 2017.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 20, 2019, 08:00:55 am
tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

Cleggmania didn't change anything though. It gave Clegg a momentary blip but the overall effect on the election was actually fairly minimal. And that's when he was the clear winner over Brown and Cameron, whereas both Johnson and Corbyn are so bad at debating I'm not sure there can be a clear winner. And even if there is a decisive winner, there's still three weeks until the election, plenty of time for other shiny things to make people forget the debate even happened.

I am surprised Theresa May is running again.  Last few PMs seems to have retired from politics after they left the PM spot.

As I said in my predictions, her becoming the female Ted Heath would be such a perfect end to her story.
Why did Clegg do worse than Kennedy in seats?

The point is, he was likely to do a *lot* worse before the debates.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 20, 2019, 08:41:40 am
6.7 million viewersv.  Not a good number at all.

That's more than ten percent of the electorate.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 20, 2019, 09:22:28 am
Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have been following the story in question, and was genuinely not aware there was a "correct" and "incorrect" way to pronounce said name before last night - never mind that any particular one betrays AS tendencies ::)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 20, 2019, 09:50:58 am
The usual American pronunciation would be 'steen',* the usual British pronunciation would be 'stein', the original pronunciation would be 'schtein'.

*Though there are exceptions: e.g. the great LENNY always insisted that his surnname should be pronounced as Bern-schtein not Burn-steen.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: parochial boy on November 20, 2019, 10:38:51 am
The vast majority of what I have seen post-debate seems to be more about the Tories' "Fact Checking" rather than anything that was actually said during. Is that broadly how it is going down overall, or just left wing bubble-ism?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on November 20, 2019, 11:14:04 am
The vast majority of what I have seen post-debate seems to be more about the Tories' "Fact Checking" rather than anything that was actually said during. Is that broadly how it is going down overall, or just left wing bubble-ism?

And Bojo stepping all over his party's tax plan roll out (oops).


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 20, 2019, 11:22:18 am
The vast majority of what I have seen post-debate seems to be more about the Tories' "Fact Checking" rather than anything that was actually said during. Is that broadly how it is going down overall, or just left wing bubble-ism?

It seems to be at least as much "savvy" types inside the Westminster bubble assuring us that NO REAL <sic> PEOPLE WILL CARE about the Tories trickery, or indeed the debate itself.

(the latter emphasis seems to have become more evident as it becomes clear Corbyn did well, strangely)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 20, 2019, 11:49:07 am
It seems to be at least as much "savvy" types inside the Westminster bubble assuring us that NO REAL <sic> PEOPLE WILL CARE about the Tories trickery, or indeed the debate itself.

(the latter emphasis seems to have become more evident as it becomes clear Corbyn did well, strangely)

While not completely ruling out that either event will make a difference, I'd say there's a difference between saying "No real people care" (which is obviously false) and "Nobody will remember or care that any of this happened in 3 weeks time" (which is a possibility).


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 20, 2019, 11:57:12 am
It seems to be at least as much "savvy" types inside the Westminster bubble assuring us that NO REAL <sic> PEOPLE WILL CARE about the Tories trickery, or indeed the debate itself.

(the latter emphasis seems to have become more evident as it becomes clear Corbyn did well, strangely)

While not completely ruling out that either event will make a difference, I'd say there's a difference between saying "No real people care" (which is obviously false) and "Nobody will remember or care that any of this happened in 3 weeks time" (which is a possibility).

Of course, its much more a comment on how a certain type of political "observer" sees things.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 20, 2019, 12:04:32 pm
6.7 million viewersv.  Not a good number at all.

That's more than ten percent of the electorate.

2010 first debate audience =9,679,000  29,687,684 voted
2015 first debate audience =8.8 million. 30,697,525 voted.

In 2017 May refused to debate.  This is one reason she failed to secure a majority in the election.

Does’nt 6,700,000 seem a little puny..


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Estrella on November 20, 2019, 12:57:36 pm
6.7 million viewersv.  Not a good number at all.

That's more than ten percent of the electorate.

2010 first debate audience =9,679,000  29,687,684 voted
2015 first debate audience =8.8 million. 30,697,525 voted.

In 2017 May refused to debate.  This is one reason she failed to secure a majority in the election.

Does’nt 6,700,000 seem a little puny..


This is the third general election (and fourth major vote, counting the 2016 referendum) in four years. For over three years now, Brexit and its fallout haven't been out of the news. Frankly, I'm surprised more people aren't turned off by politics at this point.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 20, 2019, 01:08:47 pm
And one thing that is notable in this campaign - anecdotal, but agreed by quite a few people of varying persuasions - is how keen many of the public are to talk about literally anything *but* Brexit.

(and just a point about the debate viewing figures - it is now quite a bit easier to view these and other things on social media rather than simply the TV, compared to 2010)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: The Mikado on November 20, 2019, 01:11:45 pm
Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have been following the story in question, and was genuinely not aware there was a "correct" and "incorrect" way to pronounce said name before last night - never mind that any particular one betrays AS tendencies ::)

If you go out of your way to pronounce Epstein with an "Sch" sound for the S, you're clearly going for a very Jewish pronunciation...but that's not necessarily anti-Semitic. It depends on context and what Epstein's preference was in life.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 20, 2019, 01:15:31 pm
Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have been following the story in question, and was genuinely not aware there was a "correct" and "incorrect" way to pronounce said name before last night - never mind that any particular one betrays AS tendencies ::)

If you go out of your way to pronounce Epstein with an "Sch" sound for the S, you're clearly going for a very Jewish pronunciation...but that's not necessarily anti-Semitic. It depends on context and what Epstein's preference was in life.

Indeed, such "careful" pronunciation is often an attempt to be "respectful" to the minority concerned rather than the opposite - its only because it is Corbyn that certain people are losing their s*** over it.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on November 20, 2019, 01:46:36 pm
And one thing that is notable in this campaign - anecdotal, but agreed by quite a few people of varying persuasions - is how keen many of the public are to talk about literally anything *but* Brexit.

(and just a point about the debate viewing figures - it is now quite a bit easier to view these and other things on social media rather than simply the TV, compared to 2010)

A poll today (Ipsos, I reckon) now has the NHS as the most important issue for voters, for the first time topping Brexit. Corbyn's namby-pambyism on Brexit may hurt Labour in core remainer constituencies in central London, but a government will be made out of marginals outside of London, in places where voters want to see Brexit views couched within a broader ideological context involving trade, taxes, nhs, etc. And on those issues Labour is clearly winning the debate so far.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: vileplume on November 20, 2019, 01:49:17 pm
tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

Cleggmania didn't change anything though. It gave Clegg a momentary blip but the overall effect on the election was actually fairly minimal. And that's when he was the clear winner over Brown and Cameron, whereas both Johnson and Corbyn are so bad at debating I'm not sure there can be a clear winner. And even if there is a decisive winner, there's still three weeks until the election, plenty of time for other shiny things to make people forget the debate even happened.

I am surprised Theresa May is running again.  Last few PMs seems to have retired from politics after they left the PM spot.

As I said in my predictions, her becoming the female Ted Heath would be such a perfect end to her story.
Why did Clegg do worse than Kennedy in seats?

Because most Lib Dem seats/target seats are 'naturally' Tory leaning. In 2010 the Tory's vote share nationally went up significantly more than the Lib Dem's did and so consequently the Lib Dems made net losses to them. They did gain ground on Labour in many 'metropolitan' seats (e.g. Streatham) but not enough to flip many of them and hence despite 'Cleggmania' they ended up losing a net of 5 seats.

In the opposite way in the Blair landslide of 1997 the Lib Dem's vote share decreased but they gained a net of 26! seats. This was because the Tory's vote share fell by an awful lot more (hence they gained a lot of Tory seats) and as the surging Labour Party still wasn't competitive in most Lib Dem held or target seats (meaning they only lost a couple of seats in that direction).


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Tintrlvr on November 20, 2019, 01:51:47 pm
Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have been following the story in question, and was genuinely not aware there was a "correct" and "incorrect" way to pronounce said name before last night - never mind that any particular one betrays AS tendencies ::)

If you go out of your way to pronounce Epstein with an "Sch" sound for the S, you're clearly going for a very Jewish pronunciation...but that's not necessarily anti-Semitic. It depends on context and what Epstein's preference was in life.

Indeed, such "careful" pronunciation is often an attempt to be "respectful" to the minority concerned rather than the opposite - its only because it is Corbyn that certain people are losing their s*** over it.

“Respectful” but wrong, as Epstein’s name is NOT pronounced that way, which makes it look more like stupid-person failed fake PC pandering. I agree that it’s unlikely it was intended to be anti-Semitic, but Corbyn has justifiably lost the benefit of the doubt on anti-Semitism at this point, so one can hardly blame people for having their hackles up.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 20, 2019, 02:21:18 pm
Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have been following the story in question, and was genuinely not aware there was a "correct" and "incorrect" way to pronounce said name before last night - never mind that any particular one betrays AS tendencies ::)

If you go out of your way to pronounce Epstein with an "Sch" sound for the S, you're clearly going for a very Jewish pronunciation...but that's not necessarily anti-Semitic. It depends on context and what Epstein's preference was in life.

Indeed, such "careful" pronunciation is often an attempt to be "respectful" to the minority concerned rather than the opposite - its only because it is Corbyn that certain people are losing their s*** over it.

“Respectful” but wrong, as Epstein’s name is NOT pronounced that way, which makes it look more like stupid-person failed fake PC pandering. I agree that it’s unlikely it was intended to be anti-Semitic, but Corbyn has justifiably lost the benefit of the doubt on anti-Semitism at this point, so one can hardly blame people for having their hackles up.

Problem is, if you try to explain why such hackling might be, in this case, unjustified and even a little silly, it still feeds into the 'Corbyn is an antisemite' discourse and so reinforces that loss of the benefit of the doubt, which in this case is actually pretty unfair to Corbyn.

On the 2010 Lib Dem performance, something I picked up after the fact from people involved is how unprepared the Lib Dems were for the massive surge in their vote mid-campaign. They had no plan for how to expand their map of targeted seats to account for being in first or a three way tie for first. As a result, the party frantically shoveled money/resources into ultimately unwinnable seats, depleting the resources in more marginal ones where they could have won if they had stuck to a consistent plan.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: EastAnglianLefty on November 20, 2019, 02:51:09 pm
One of my friends was an organiser in a marginal Labour lost to the Lib Dems in 2010. When the ballot boxes were opened, initial sampling suggested that they'd done enough to hold on. It wasn't until the postal votes were mixed in that they realised they were in trouble, because those had been returned in the middle of Cleggmania and the Lib Dems far outperformed the score they got on the day.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 20, 2019, 02:53:04 pm
It's so hilarious in hindsight there was a 'mania' for that snake oil salesman


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Zinneke on November 20, 2019, 03:12:41 pm
It's so hilarious in hindsight there was a 'mania' for that snake oil salesman

Alternative Vote and no tuition fees, plus a staunch anti-interventionist stance towards Iraq. Sounds good to me at the time too.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 20, 2019, 04:05:14 pm
Jeremy Corbyn is British. Why would he know how Americans pronounce German surnames? The way we butcher these surnames is specific to the US, similar to how British people have a knack for mangling Spanish words and surnames.  



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 20, 2019, 04:41:54 pm
The usual American pronunciation would be 'steen',* the usual British pronunciation would be 'stein', the original pronunciation would be 'schtein'.

*Though there are exceptions: e.g. the great LENNY always insisted that his surnname should be pronounced as Bern-schtein not Burn-steen.

I pronounce it "schtein" as a lingering legacy of my German gcse (I also pronounce "Vollkswagen" as "folksvagen" for similar reasons)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Anomalocaris🌹 on November 20, 2019, 04:49:49 pm
I see we’ve reached a new peak of Corbyn Derangement Syndrome.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: adma on November 20, 2019, 06:36:56 pm
The usual American pronunciation would be 'steen',* the usual British pronunciation would be 'stein', the original pronunciation would be 'schtein'.

*Though there are exceptions: e.g. the great LENNY always insisted that his surnname should be pronounced as Bern-schtein not Burn-steen.

Case in point: the most fabled British Epstein, Beatles manager Brian Epstein.  (Which Wikipedia affirms as "stein", even though a lot of casual Yank Beatlemaniacs have tended to default to "steen")


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 20, 2019, 07:51:32 pm
I have to say, it's really not a good look for the media to go after Corbyn for supposedly mispronouncing a name while he was pledging to defend the victims of Epstein's sordid pedophile ring. It's more than a bit anti-Semitic to assume that disdain for a literal pedophile is some sign of an anti-Semitic bent...


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Fremont Speaker Roblox on November 20, 2019, 08:32:41 pm
Wait, the media is actually ragging on Corbyn for….Mispronouncing a pedophiles name? What the ? Like, are there any actual British voters that would actually think "how dare that socialist bastard Corbyn disrespect the good name of….The guy who ran an international pedo ring…"


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 20, 2019, 08:47:11 pm
I think it's just a surprisingly slow news day, all of the discussion boards I follow on the election have been concerned with different minor things.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on November 21, 2019, 03:47:38 am
I have to say, it's really not a good look for the media to go after Corbyn for supposedly mispronouncing a name while he was pledging to defend the victims of Epstein's sordid pedophile ring. It's more than a bit anti-Semitic to assume that disdain for a literal pedophile is some sign of an anti-Semitic bent...

What is more anti-Semitic: obsessing about the Jewish identity of a man who ran an illegal smut ring, or mispronouncing his name?

For what it's worth, Israelis often pronounce the "-stein" differently than Americans, too. "Ayan-sta-yan" can be "Ayan-shteen," for example.

But this obviously has less to do with Jew-phobia than with Jezza-phobia.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 21, 2019, 06:16:37 am
Roundheads v Cavaliers

https://election.unherd.com/

Focal Data doing some election stuff...but for now just views of the monarchy.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: urutzizu on November 21, 2019, 07:10:30 am
Full labour manifesto: https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Real-Change-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf

full lib dem manifesto: https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/libdems/pages/57307/attachments/original/1574267252/Stop_Brexit_and_Build_a_Brighter_Future.pdf?1574267252

Credit where credit is due to the lib dems, pledging to give all 7 Million Hong kongers full Citizenship rights and right of abode is ambitious and would help correct many historical injustices (but would also spark full blown diplomatic crisis with china)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 21, 2019, 07:32:10 am
Full labour manifesto: https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Real-Change-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf

full lib dem manifesto: https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/libdems/pages/57307/attachments/original/1574267252/Stop_Brexit_and_Build_a_Brighter_Future.pdf?1574267252

Credit where credit is due to the lib dems, pledging to give all 7 Million Hong kongers full Citizenship rights and right of abode is ambitious and would help correct many historical injustices (but would also spark full blown diplomatic crisis with china)

Well it's a good policy of course, but it's also one they know there's zero chance of being implemented, so they can afford to promise things that obviously aren't actually all that practical.

I'm actually pleasantly surprised with the Lib Dem manifesto. Labour manifesto is uncosted seventies tripe of course but that was hardly unexpected so my reaction is an uninterested 'meh'. The Tory manifesto will be the interesting one to watch; if its really bad again we could be in for an interesting ride.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 21, 2019, 07:32:55 am

Credit where credit is due to the lib dems, pledging to give all 7 Million Hong kongers full Citizenship rights and right of abode is ambitious and would help correct many historical injustices (but would also spark full blown diplomatic crisis with china)

I mean obvious unicorns are obvious. LDs are never going to be in command of government so they can afford to make outlandish proposals like this. It's the kind of proposal that isn't that thought out, but since everyone agrees that something needs to be done about the timely crisis in Hong Kong, it doesn't hurt to throw unicorns out there and use them to win votes.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: urutzizu on November 21, 2019, 07:52:13 am
I mean obvious unicorns are obvious. LDs are never going to be in command of government so they can afford to make outlandish proposals like this. It's the kind of proposal that isn't that thought out, but since everyone agrees that something needs to be done about the timely crisis in Hong Kong, it doesn't hurt to throw unicorns out there and use them to win votes.


I am not sure whether it is so outlandish or not thought out. It was only recently proposed by the Chairman of the Commons affairs committee Tom Tugenthat (Con) and was supported by both the last two Governors of HK before the Handover. The extent of emigration to Britain would likely not massively increase in the immediate term, HK and Britain have comparable living standards and social security systems. The main idea is giving HKers an Insurance policy of sorts against a Chinese crackdown like 1989. People in Hong Kong are already entitled to a form of second class British nationality (BN(O) status), the history of which is mired in quite racist ideas, but without right of abode in the UK.

But I do take your point that they can promise unicorns as they are not going to form Government.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 21, 2019, 08:03:04 am
tbf in regards to the costings, an awful lot of the Lib Dem manifesto is a presupposition that the "remain bonus" of 50 billion pounds turns out in reality.

They also want a LVT on commercial land to replace rents. I support that.

Also in regards to the LD policy on further education, I really hate the phrase "skills wallet". Must have focus grouped well, because I've seen them use it a lot.

Classic LD triangulation policy with Trident: they decide not to abolish, not to renew in full, but build three submarines instead of the current four. (In all fairness to them, Labour apparently were musing on an even sillier one a few years back: build the submarines so Barrow workers can do something, but don't build the missiles)

Also they want cannabis legalised. Can't remember if they wanted that last time.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 21, 2019, 08:22:34 am
Great Grimsby

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 31% (-18)
BREX: 17% (+17)
LDEM: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+3)

(lot of undecided Lab 2017 voters + a small sample size, but not great news for Labour)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 21, 2019, 08:36:22 am
Great Grimsby

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 31% (-18)
BREX: 17% (+17)
LDEM: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+3)

(lot of undecideds mostly Lab 2017 voters ans a small sample size, but not great news for Labour)

Sort of fits the narrative that BXP eats into LAB leave voters that would not vote CON while in the South BXP tend to eat into CON base.  Of couse BXP is not running in most of the South.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 21, 2019, 08:39:27 am
Great Grimsby

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 31% (-18)
BREX: 17% (+17)
LDEM: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+3)

(lot of undecideds mostly Lab 2017 voters ans a small sample size, but not great news for Labour)

Sort of fits the narrative that BXP eats into LAB leave voters that would not vote CON while in the South BXP tend to eat into CON base.  Of couse BXP is not running in most of the South.

On the  other hand, we don't know if BXT voters would flow to the Tories here if BXT didn't exist. BXT is just the easier pill to swallow, but if forced to choose more may go for the next blue in line.

Also, obvious warnings about the accuracy of constituency polls are obvious.  


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 21, 2019, 08:52:32 am
A notable feature of constituency polling thusfar is that with the exception of the Gedling poll, they have all shown significantly larger absolute or relative declines (i.e. where the drops have been lower in percentage-point terms, they have been in constituencies where the vote was lower to start with; often a higher proportion of the vote in such seats is shown as lost) in Labour support than suggested by national polling at the time they were conducted. Given the diversity of constituency polled, this is, how shall we say, something of a red flashing light as to their likely accuracy.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 21, 2019, 09:12:17 am
Sort of fits the narrative that BXP eats into LAB leave voters that would not vote CON while in the South BXP tend to eat into CON base.  Of couse BXP is not running in most of the South.

The essential problem with this narrative is that there is no reason to believe that the Brexit Party vote does not = (some of the) people who voted UKIP in 2015 and, well, that really isn't what that pattern looked like.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 21, 2019, 09:19:03 am
A notable feature of constituency polling thusfar is that with the exception of the Gedling poll, they have all shown significantly larger absolute or relative declines (i.e. where the drops have been lower in percentage-point terms, they have been in constituencies where the vote was lower to start with; often a higher proportion of the vote in such seats is shown as lost) in Labour support than suggested by national polling at the time they were conducted. Given the diversity of constituency polled, this is, how shall we say, something of a red flashing light as to their likely accuracy.

Or universal swing isn't going to be as applicable as it has been in the past. I have long expected the Referendum results to be a be a predictor of swings, though the results won't mirror the brexit vote, obviously. We had polls from the uber-remain wealthy strip of tory London and Cambridge, and surprise the LDs are surging in these remain strongholds to some degree at the expense of both majors. We have had polls of Workington and now Grimsby and both confirmed the parties that are campaigning on Brexit are doing good in the harder Leave seats. So where is labour holding up under these Brexit-weighted models: their urban safe seats. These places are the home  of the modern working class, urban visible minorities, and to borrow a term from Canada, ABC voters. Makes sense considering Momentum and their youth-focused campaign is naturally going to do better in the  places where the  youth are congregating.

But, of course, obvious worries about constituency polls MOE and accuracy are obvious.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 21, 2019, 09:27:11 am
Sort of fits the narrative that BXP eats into LAB leave voters that would not vote CON while in the South BXP tend to eat into CON base.  Of couse BXP is not running in most of the South.

The essential problem with this narrative is that there is no reason to believe that the Brexit Party vote does not = (some of the) people who voted UKIP in 2015 and, well, that really isn't what that pattern looked like.

Sure.  But the 2015 UKIP vote in the North are also made up of pre-2015 pro-Leave LAB voters.  They went back to LAB in 2017 when many like myself thought UKIP would be a gateway drug to CON but it seems that this bunch has a real resistance to voting CON.  So if BXP did not run here I suspect many of them would not vote or vote LAB but not CON.  So my guess is that BXP running in places like this helps CON.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: parochial boy on November 21, 2019, 09:51:23 am
A notable feature of constituency polling thusfar is that with the exception of the Gedling poll, they have all shown significantly larger absolute or relative declines (i.e. where the drops have been lower in percentage-point terms, they have been in constituencies where the vote was lower to start with; often a higher proportion of the vote in such seats is shown as lost) in Labour support than suggested by national polling at the time they were conducted. Given the diversity of constituency polled, this is, how shall we say, something of a red flashing light as to their likely accuracy.

Or universal swing isn't going to be as applicable as it has been in the past. I have long expected the Referendum results to be a be a predictor of swings, though the results won't mirror the brexit vote, obviously. We had polls from the uber-remain wealthy strip of tory London and Cambridge, and surprise the LDs are surging in these remain strongholds to some degree at the expense of both majors. We have had polls of Workington and now Grimsby and both confirmed the parties that are campaigning on Brexit are doing good in the harder Leave seats. So where is labour holding up under these Brexit-weighted models: their urban safe seats. These places are the home  of the modern working class, urban visible minorities, and to borrow a term from Canada, ABC voters. Makes sense considering Momentum and their youth-focused campaign is naturally going to do better in the  places where the  youth are congregating.

But, of course, obvious worries about constituency polls MOE and accuracy are obvious.

Portsmouth South, Cambridge, Reading West (ok, the students are mostly in Reading East but still...) are all good examples of urban constituencies with big student/youth votes, and yet all have labour collapsing by 20 odd points.

And the UK isn’t Canada. There just isn’t enough of an ethnic minority population (esp given the BJP’s naked targetting of Hindu voters) or enough people in the successful liberal cities (considering quite a few big cities like Birmingham and Sheffield voted for Brexit after all) for the maths to really work out.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 21, 2019, 10:08:43 am
A notable feature of constituency polling thusfar is that with the exception of the Gedling poll, they have all shown significantly larger absolute or relative declines (i.e. where the drops have been lower in percentage-point terms, they have been in constituencies where the vote was lower to start with; often a higher proportion of the vote in such seats is shown as lost) in Labour support than suggested by national polling at the time they were conducted. Given the diversity of constituency polled, this is, how shall we say, something of a red flashing light as to their likely accuracy.

Or universal swing isn't going to be as applicable as it has been in the past. I have long expected the Referendum results to be a be a predictor of swings, though the results won't mirror the brexit vote, obviously. We had polls from the uber-remain wealthy strip of tory London and Cambridge, and surprise the LDs are surging in these remain strongholds to some degree at the expense of both majors. We have had polls of Workington and now Grimsby and both confirmed the parties that are campaigning on Brexit are doing good in the harder Leave seats. So where is labour holding up under these Brexit-weighted models: their urban safe seats. These places are the home  of the modern working class, urban visible minorities, and to borrow a term from Canada, ABC voters. Makes sense considering Momentum and their youth-focused campaign is naturally going to do better in the  places where the  youth are congregating.

But, of course, obvious worries about constituency polls MOE and accuracy are obvious.

Portsmouth South, Cambridge, Reading West (ok, the students are mostly in Reading East but still...) are all good examples of urban constituencies with big student/youth votes, and yet all have labour collapsing by 20 odd points.

And the UK isn’t Canada. There just isn’t enough of an ethnic minority population (esp given the BJP’s naked targetting of Hindu voters) or enough people in the successful liberal cities (considering quite a few big cities like Birmingham and Sheffield voted for Brexit after all) for the maths to really work out.

Students =/= Youth vote. It was brought up during the debate over the election date that about 75% of students are registered in their home constituency. Universities get their hues more from the staff, long-term researchers, and the surrounding university-serving communities that reflect their clientele's political views. Look more for the constituencies the youth move to after graduation. 


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 21, 2019, 10:11:46 am


Some tentative suggestion of tactical voting.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: ¢®🅰ß 🦀 ©@k€ 🎂 on November 21, 2019, 10:41:38 am
A notable feature of constituency polling thusfar is that with the exception of the Gedling poll, they have all shown significantly larger absolute or relative declines (i.e. where the drops have been lower in percentage-point terms, they have been in constituencies where the vote was lower to start with; often a higher proportion of the vote in such seats is shown as lost) in Labour support than suggested by national polling at the time they were conducted. Given the diversity of constituency polled, this is, how shall we say, something of a red flashing light as to their likely accuracy.

How do they generate the constituency polls anyway? Landline calls, then weight them for age?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Anomalocaris🌹 on November 21, 2019, 11:04:33 am
This stuff is just hysterical, man. Is there a single prominent politician in recent memory - in any Democratic country - to inspire this degree of lunacy?




Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 21, 2019, 12:42:00 pm


Reminder: Not all tactical voters are LD-Tory or LD-Lab voters.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 21, 2019, 01:48:33 pm
Bit of ground level anecdotal evidence: My Esher & Walton based landline has now been called 3 (!) times by polling companies, most recently be Deltapoll. In 15 years of living here my partner has never been called by a polling company before.

Meanwhile, the local Lib Dem campaign is in high gear with leafleters at the local train stations each morning. Labour campaign MIA. Tory campaign limited to a single pamphlet pushed through our mail slot that made zero mention of their party leader.

Am heading to a hustings (candidate meet and greet) tonight.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: parochial boy on November 21, 2019, 01:58:20 pm
A notable feature of constituency polling thusfar is that with the exception of the Gedling poll, they have all shown significantly larger absolute or relative declines (i.e. where the drops have been lower in percentage-point terms, they have been in constituencies where the vote was lower to start with; often a higher proportion of the vote in such seats is shown as lost) in Labour support than suggested by national polling at the time they were conducted. Given the diversity of constituency polled, this is, how shall we say, something of a red flashing light as to their likely accuracy.

Or universal swing isn't going to be as applicable as it has been in the past. I have long expected the Referendum results to be a be a predictor of swings, though the results won't mirror the brexit vote, obviously. We had polls from the uber-remain wealthy strip of tory London and Cambridge, and surprise the LDs are surging in these remain strongholds to some degree at the expense of both majors. We have had polls of Workington and now Grimsby and both confirmed the parties that are campaigning on Brexit are doing good in the harder Leave seats. So where is labour holding up under these Brexit-weighted models: their urban safe seats. These places are the home  of the modern working class, urban visible minorities, and to borrow a term from Canada, ABC voters. Makes sense considering Momentum and their youth-focused campaign is naturally going to do better in the  places where the  youth are congregating.

But, of course, obvious worries about constituency polls MOE and accuracy are obvious.

Portsmouth South, Cambridge, Reading West (ok, the students are mostly in Reading East but still...) are all good examples of urban constituencies with big student/youth votes, and yet all have labour collapsing by 20 odd points.

And the UK isn’t Canada. There just isn’t enough of an ethnic minority population (esp given the BJP’s naked targetting of Hindu voters) or enough people in the successful liberal cities (considering quite a few big cities like Birmingham and Sheffield voted for Brexit after all) for the maths to really work out.


Students =/= Youth vote. It was brought up during the debate over the election date that about 75% of students are registered in their home constituency. Universities get their hues more from the staff, long-term researchers, and the surrounding university-serving communities that reflect their clientele's political views. Look more for the constituencies the youth move to after graduation. 

Reading and Cambridge would be excellent examples of those sorts of places - thriving service/it oriented job markets that employ lots of graduates


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Babeuf on November 21, 2019, 02:13:53 pm
Probably won't matter, but as a general observation the social media videos being put out by Labour / Momentum are very well done.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 21, 2019, 02:19:58 pm
Bit of ground level anecdotal evidence: My Esher & Walton based landline has now been called 3 (!) times by polling companies, most recently be Deltapoll. In 15 years of living here my partner has never been called by a polling company before.

Meanwhile, the local Lib Dem campaign is in high gear with leafleters at the local train stations each morning. Labour campaign MIA. Tory campaign limited to a single pamphlet pushed through our mail slot that made zero mention of their party leader.

Am heading to a hustings (candidate meet and greet) tonight.

As a local do you think there's a genuine chance of Raab losing? I'm certainly very sceptical of it but I'd be interested to know what someone in the area thinks.

Definitely won't matter, but as a general observation the social media videos being put out by Labour / Momentum are very well done.

FTFY


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 21, 2019, 05:14:47 pm
So there's this forecast site:

https://leantossup.ca/uk-constituency-map/

CON GAIN Torfaen anyone?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 21, 2019, 05:27:53 pm
Bit of ground level anecdotal evidence: My Esher & Walton based landline has now been called 3 (!) times by polling companies, most recently be Deltapoll. In 15 years of living here my partner has never been called by a polling company before.

Meanwhile, the local Lib Dem campaign is in high gear with leafleters at the local train stations each morning. Labour campaign MIA. Tory campaign limited to a single pamphlet pushed through our mail slot that made zero mention of their party leader.

Am heading to a hustings (candidate meet and greet) tonight.

As a local do you think there's a genuine chance of Raab losing? I'm certainly very sceptical of it but I'd be interested to know what someone in the area thinks.


Based on the hustings tonight *definitely* yes. In the 90 minutes Raab, Monica Harding, and the Labour candidate debated, Raab got booed or laughed at at least a half dozen times. The biggest jeers came when he tried to answer questions on Brexit. Frankly, even as someone inclined not to like Raab's politics, I was surprised at how vociferous opposition to him was in the room. There was still a solid core of audience support for him, but the Lib Dem contingent was definitely bigger and louder.

Added to that, the Labour candidate was quite weak. I went up to him afterwards and he seemed like a nice enough guy. But he was very soft spoken, seemed very nervous, and actually wrapped up his concluding remarks with something like 'we have to beat the Tories with Labour or the Lib Dems'.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 21, 2019, 05:34:24 pm
So there's this forecast site:

https://leantossup.ca/uk-constituency-map/

CON GAIN Torfaen anyone?

Even better: they have Swansea East (!!!!!!!!!) down for that as well. What the actual Christ.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 21, 2019, 05:39:53 pm
Bit of ground level anecdotal evidence: My Esher & Walton based landline has now been called 3 (!) times by polling companies, most recently be Deltapoll. In 15 years of living here my partner has never been called by a polling company before.

Meanwhile, the local Lib Dem campaign is in high gear with leafleters at the local train stations each morning. Labour campaign MIA. Tory campaign limited to a single pamphlet pushed through our mail slot that made zero mention of their party leader.

Am heading to a hustings (candidate meet and greet) tonight.

As a local do you think there's a genuine chance of Raab losing? I'm certainly very sceptical of it but I'd be interested to know what someone in the area thinks.


Based on the hustings tonight *definitely* yes. In the 90 minutes Raab, Monica Harding, and the Labour candidate debated, Raab got booed or laughed at at least a half dozen times. The biggest jeers came when he tried to answer questions on Brexit. Frankly, even as someone inclined not to like Raab's politics, I was surprised at how vociferous opposition to him was in the room. There was still a solid core of audience support for him, but the Lib Dem contingent was definitely bigger and louder.

Added to that, the Labour candidate was quite weak. I went up to him afterwards and he seemed like a nice enough guy. But he was very soft spoken, seemed very nervous, and actually wrapped up his concluding remarks with something like 'we have to beat the Tories with Labour or the Lib Dems'.


Must be hard standing in front of a crowd trying to argue that you're more than a sacrificial lamb candidate, even though everyone and yourself knows that's a lie.

Interesting that the LDs can follow up on their word to seriously contest the seat though. One has to assume that their prospects are looking up in those Tory seats to the North if they can get a vibrant crowd in the more reachy Raab seat.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 21, 2019, 05:43:36 pm
Bit of ground level anecdotal evidence: My Esher & Walton based landline has now been called 3 (!) times by polling companies, most recently be Deltapoll. In 15 years of living here my partner has never been called by a polling company before.

Meanwhile, the local Lib Dem campaign is in high gear with leafleters at the local train stations each morning. Labour campaign MIA. Tory campaign limited to a single pamphlet pushed through our mail slot that made zero mention of their party leader.

Am heading to a hustings (candidate meet and greet) tonight.

As a local do you think there's a genuine chance of Raab losing? I'm certainly very sceptical of it but I'd be interested to know what someone in the area thinks.


Based on the hustings tonight *definitely* yes. In the 90 minutes Raab, Monica Harding, and the Labour candidate debated, Raab got booed or laughed at at least a half dozen times. The biggest jeers came when he tried to answer questions on Brexit. Frankly, even as someone inclined not to like Raab's politics, I was surprised at how vociferous opposition to him was in the room. There was still a solid core of audience support for him, but the Lib Dem contingent was definitely bigger and louder.

Added to that, the Labour candidate was quite weak. I went up to him afterwards and he seemed like a nice enough guy. But he was very soft spoken, seemed very nervous, and actually wrapped up his concluding remarks with something like 'we have to beat the Tories with Labour or the Lib Dems'.


That's interesting then - perhaps I might have to change my rating then. I suspect there might be a whiff of close but no cigar to it but maybe the tactical voting potential is there. It's obviously very unpredictable though...

So there's this forecast site:

https://leantossup.ca/uk-constituency-map/

CON GAIN Torfaen anyone?

Apparently these guys nailed the Canadian election... not sure they'll be repeating that here. My personal favourite is apparently Leeds NW more likely to LD than St Albans.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 21, 2019, 06:25:37 pm
How do they generate the constituency polls anyway? Landline calls, then weight them for age?

You'd think, but some of the earlier ones (at least: can't comment on the more recent ones) were actually only weighted by... um... Euro Election vote? Bizarre stuff.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 21, 2019, 06:37:51 pm
Reading and Cambridge would be excellent examples of those sorts of places - thriving service/it oriented job markets that employ lots of graduates

Quite so. It also needs to be emphasised that very few constituencies these days are at all uniform; communities like that no longer exist, and constituencies themselves are drawn to hit quotas rather than to represent communities of interest - they are not natural units. Which makes it even less likely that the maths works out. Besides, Occam is usually right.

Of course 'these probably all suck you know' does not mean that they all suck in the same direction. And it is true that, for various long-term grudge reasons relating to the collapse of its traditional economy (i.e. cod fisheries), it is quite likely that 'Brexit' alone is a stronger siren-song in Grimsby than in most places.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Coastal Elitist on November 21, 2019, 06:41:49 pm
Labour's manifesto is crazy.

From the financial times: https://www.ft.com/content/1b35a81e-0c5f-11ea-b2d6-9bf4d1957a67

The Labour party manifesto is nothing more than a blueprint for socialism in one country. The combination of punitive tax increases, sweeping nationalisation, and the end of Thatcher-era union reforms turn the clock back 40 years. Set alongside a vast expansion of the state — based on spending amounting to six per cent of national income — Labour’s plans are a recipe for terminal economic decline.

Whereas previous Labour leaders, from Tony Blair to Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband, accepted the market economy, the hard left clique around Jeremy Corbyn have elected to replace it with their own statist model. This owes more to François Mitterrand’s socialist programme in 1981 than to a realistic prescription for reforming a modern economy, still less preserving the UK’s treasured status as a beacon for foreign investment.

The tragedy of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party, like so many populist movements, is that it does identify areas that genuinely need fixing. Nearly a decade after the Conservatives returned to power, real wages have still not returned to their pre-crisis peak. Homelessness has risen. Basic public services such the criminal justice system, social care and local government are dire. Privatised water and rail companies are not delivering for users. Large parts of the population feel excluded from the bright spots of prosperity, mainly in the south-east.

Yet virtually all of Labour’s prescriptions to tackle these challenges are misguided. Mr Corbyn’s original sin is to cast private enterprise as a necessary evil to be managed rather than being part of the solution to the problems his party has identified. The assault on business is an attack on wealth creation.

First, Labour is proposing a staggering increase in taxes — close to £83bn a year by 2023-24, with the bulk coming from higher levies on business investment, much of it being squeezed out of the private sector in year one.

Second, the nationalisation programme goes far beyond anything contemplated in a generation. True, private monopolies in rail and water have fallen short in performance. There is a case for re-regulation or indeed re-examining ownership; but to extend nationalisation to the energy utilities, broadband and Royal Mail is an unwarranted interference which will shatter confidence and deter investment.

Third, the party proposes collective sectoral bargaining over pay and conditions, claiming this “will increase wages and reduce inequality”. It would instead stifle innovation and lock workers out of employment. Similarly, plans for rent control would advantage “insiders” who already rent and push “outsiders” into an unregulated black market.

In some areas, the manifesto is less radical than expected. It has dropped the fantasy target of hitting net zero carbon emissions by 2030, which would require a hugely expensive and near-impossible transformation of the economy. Also gone are proposals to bring private schools into the state sector, and a mooted idea to give private tenants a right to buy their home from their landlord. On security and defence it commits to renewing Trident, remaining part of Nato and keeping to the alliance’s target for military spending of 2 per cent of national income.

The British economy is not broken. It has proven remarkably resilient in the face of Brexit uncertainty. Labour’s plans would exponentially increase the risks to the economy. A responsible centre-left programme to restore fairness and opportunity, to rebuild public services, and preserve private sector incentives, was there for the taking. Mr Corbyn has missed an open goal.

it's not against the terms of service to post this. Also I've seen many others do this


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Lord Halifax on November 21, 2019, 07:25:24 pm
In some areas, the manifesto is less radical than expected. It has dropped the fantasy target of hitting net zero carbon emissions by 2030, which would require a hugely expensive and near-impossible transformation of the economy. Also gone are proposals to bring private schools into the state sector, and a mooted idea to give private tenants a right to buy their home from their landlord.

Dissapointing.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 21, 2019, 07:30:14 pm
So there's this forecast site:

https://leantossup.ca/uk-constituency-map/

CON GAIN Torfaen anyone?

Even better: they have Swansea East (!!!!!!!!!) down for that as well. What the actual Christ.

Barnsley East: Tossup

uh okay?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Ishan on November 21, 2019, 07:30:27 pm
How do they generate the constituency polls anyway? Landline calls, then weight them for age?

You'd think, but some of the earlier ones (at least: can't comment on the more recent ones) were actually only weighted by... um... Euro Election vote? Bizarre stuff.
Had that been the case in 2015, Farage would have had a lot of seats.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 21, 2019, 08:44:11 pm
Since the Tories haven't released their manifesto, we can play a little game: approximately how much if it will be dedicated to Brexit? 1/5th? 1/3rd?

Note that Labour buried their Brexit policy near the end of their manifesto, a reflection of their campaign strategy to bridge the Remain/Leave divide.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 21, 2019, 09:05:22 pm
With Great Grimsby an interesting factor is that Melanie Onn endorsed Boris Johnson's Brexit deal (probably to try and get re-elected). I'm not sure how many people know about that, or how it'll factor into the election. This is of course a heavily Leave seat, Onn probably calculated that she could outperform by backing Brexit. However, it does seem quite likely (and ironic) that she'll lose anyway, and most voters won't care or even know. Perhaps it'll even hurt her by reducing Remainer support and enthusiasm for her, and even in these types of constituencies a majority of the Labour base are probably Remainers.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 21, 2019, 11:46:26 pm
The fact that folks like the Financial Times are terrified of the manifesto is precisely what makes it so good.

It's such a shame that Corbyn is such a sh*tty messenger, because the message itself is amazing.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 22, 2019, 02:08:06 am


Based on the hustings tonight *definitely* yes. In the 90 minutes Raab, Monica Harding, and the Labour candidate debated, Raab got booed or laughed at at least a half dozen times. The biggest jeers came when he tried to answer questions on Brexit. Frankly, even as someone inclined not to like Raab's politics, I was surprised at how vociferous opposition to him was in the room. There was still a solid core of audience support for him, but the Lib Dem contingent was definitely bigger and louder.

Added to that, the Labour candidate was quite weak. I went up to him afterwards and he seemed like a nice enough guy. But he was very soft spoken, seemed very nervous, and actually wrapped up his concluding remarks with something like 'we have to beat the Tories with Labour or the Lib Dems'.


Must be hard standing in front of a crowd trying to argue that you're more than a sacrificial lamb candidate, even though everyone and yourself knows that's a lie.

Interesting that the LDs can follow up on their word to seriously contest the seat though. One has to assume that their prospects are looking up in those Tory seats to the North if they can get a vibrant crowd in the more reachy Raab seat.

If by 'north' you mean Kensington, Wimbledon, and so on, then yes I'd agree. The Lib Dems aren't serious contenders in most of 'The North', i.e. Yorkshire, Lancashire, etc. They *are* making a big play in the Southwest (Cornwall and Devon) but I haven't heard anything about the campaigns in that part of the country.

On the way to work this morning the Tories were handing out pamphlets to commuters at the train station. A bit late to the game, tbh; the Lib Dems have been doing that for two weeks, albeit intermittently.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Justice Blair on November 22, 2019, 04:20:44 am
FWIW it's remarkable for the FT to say that the British Economy isn't broken- and equally galling that the FT didn't back Miliband who was offering pretty much what the FT wants now (no Brexit, modest state investment, regulation rather than nationalisation etc) 

At the risk of sounding like the boorish 'you're part of the problem' types- if you think the british economy is working well (current growth rate of 0.1% irrc) then I'm going to be a bit sceptical of your views.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 22, 2019, 06:01:58 am
The decision by the likes of the FT and Independent to back Cameron over Miliband in 2015 is in retrospect one of the greatest acts of folly in recent times. A completely delusional, cosy mindset that if we could just get rid of this pesky interloper preaching DANGEROUS MARXISM - you know, like regulating the energy market - then things (both in the country and Labour party) would go back to where they were and we could all pretend that 2008 and everything that subsequently developed had never happened.

And people actually wonder why Corbyn supporters don't like our media?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 22, 2019, 06:05:04 am
The British economy is obviously broken and needs transformational change. But that isn't what Corbyn is offering - there's nothing clever or interesting to try and reform a failed system, just "LET'S SPEND OUR WAY OUT!". So at the end of five years, all we are is deep in debt and with the same economic system the Tories will then use for Austerity 2: Electric Boogaloo.

It's probably the most frustrating thing about Corbyn, is that there are frequently opportunities for good things to happen, and he ALWAYS hoofs the ball well clear of the open goal. I'd be interested in voting for transformational change to the economy to create a better, fairer and more reliable system than the current sh**tshow (not this time because of Brexit but maybe in the future.) I have zero interest in voting for failed regressive seventies socialism.

Anyway, from what I've seen the manifesto is going down like a treat with the converted but the jury is very much out on the people who's votes actually matter. I don't think this was a game changer of any kind.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 22, 2019, 07:17:10 am


Based on the hustings tonight *definitely* yes. In the 90 minutes Raab, Monica Harding, and the Labour candidate debated, Raab got booed or laughed at at least a half dozen times. The biggest jeers came when he tried to answer questions on Brexit. Frankly, even as someone inclined not to like Raab's politics, I was surprised at how vociferous opposition to him was in the room. There was still a solid core of audience support for him, but the Lib Dem contingent was definitely bigger and louder.

Added to that, the Labour candidate was quite weak. I went up to him afterwards and he seemed like a nice enough guy. But he was very soft spoken, seemed very nervous, and actually wrapped up his concluding remarks with something like 'we have to beat the Tories with Labour or the Lib Dems'.


Must be hard standing in front of a crowd trying to argue that you're more than a sacrificial lamb candidate, even though everyone and yourself knows that's a lie.

Interesting that the LDs can follow up on their word to seriously contest the seat though. One has to assume that their prospects are looking up in those Tory seats to the North if they can get a vibrant crowd in the more reachy Raab seat.

If by 'north' you mean Kensington, Wimbledon, and so on, then yes I'd agree. The Lib Dems aren't serious contenders in most of 'The North', i.e. Yorkshire, Lancashire, etc. They *are* making a big play in the Southwest (Cornwall and Devon) but I haven't heard anything about the campaigns in that part of the country.

On the way to work this morning the Tories were handing out pamphlets to commuters at the train station. A bit late to the game, tbh; the Lib Dems have been doing that for two weeks, albeit intermittently.


Yes, I meant those seats directly to the North in the wealthy slice of London, not Yorkshire, NE, etc. I'm not that daft to think the LDs will make seriously gains north of Birmingham, unless polling turns around in a big way. Those seats were all 'in front' of Raab target-wise, so LD prospects must be good across the wealthy slice of West London.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 22, 2019, 07:30:13 am
The financial times should be scared from their position on the political spectrum. Their UK readership is not accommodating to corbyn, so it would be a shocker that they had good things to say at all. For example, the only times in recent memory the FT endorsed Labour was during the third-way landslide years:

()

()

Now I have suspected since before the election that the FT will be endorsing the LDs, their readership and press corps are very pro-remain, but that is not a topic for the here and now.

Images sourced from The Guardian and YouGov.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 22, 2019, 10:06:24 am
Still trying to work out which Vote 2012 Forum member 'I'm poor on 80k me.' shouty BBC Question Time man is.



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 22, 2019, 10:08:10 am
And following on from my previous post, one of the best things that could be done to improve media coverage in this country is to fire THAT programme - and all involved with it - onto the surface of the sun.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 22, 2019, 10:31:24 am
And following on from my previous post, one of the best things that could be done to improve media coverage in this country is to fire THAT programme - and all involved with it - onto the surface of the sun.

It's the home of jabbing finger 'look at me' self opinionated wankers. It makes me feel sorry for politicians....maybe that's the point of it.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 22, 2019, 10:57:13 am
()

This came through the door earlier. Now that's what I call a misleading bar chart.

Looks like the Greens are really gunning to turn this into a long-term target. I think a major reason for the Remain Alliance coming into place was so the Greens could get a few more of those. Anything other than third this time around would shock me of course, but who knows what'll happen in the future.(Although I suspect the boundary changes that need to happen eventually will screw them over in that endeavour)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 22, 2019, 11:31:12 am
The British economy is obviously broken and needs transformational change. But that isn't what Corbyn is offering - there's nothing clever or interesting to try and reform a failed system, just "LET'S SPEND OUR WAY OUT!". So at the end of five years, all we are is deep in debt and with the same economic system the Tories will then use for Austerity 2: Electric Boogaloo.

It's probably the most frustrating thing about Corbyn, is that there are frequently opportunities for good things to happen, and he ALWAYS hoofs the ball well clear of the open goal. I'd be interested in voting for transformational change to the economy to create a better, fairer and more reliable system than the current sh**tshow (not this time because of Brexit but maybe in the future.) I have zero interest in voting for failed regressive seventies socialism.

Anyway, from what I've seen the manifesto is going down like a treat with the converted but the jury is very much out on the people who's votes actually matter. I don't think this was a game changer of any kind.

What I'm not keen on is the universality of much of the new spending. Handing out free broadband to everyone and free bus passes to those under 25 regardless whether they actually need to get them for free is the kind of thing that personally doesn't appeal to me and seems like a waste of money that could be better spent on other priorities.

The same goes with nationalisation; slapping a double arrow on a train doesn't make it magically more reliable.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 22, 2019, 11:41:03 am
This is an area where I strongly disagree - the centrist love of means testing and "targeting" everything is one of the least likeable things about them. Universal benefits and services are, other things being equal, good.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 22, 2019, 11:47:17 am
If they are universal, then those who don't actually need them should be discouraged from taking them.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Kingpoleon on November 22, 2019, 12:52:04 pm
This came through the door earlier. Now that's what I call a misleading bar chart.

Looks like the Greens are really gunning to turn this into a long-term target. I think a major reason for the Remain Alliance coming into place was so the Greens could get a few more of those. Anything other than third this time around would shock me of course, but who knows what'll happen in the future.(Although I suspect the boundary changes that need to happen eventually will screw them over in that endeavour)
How do they justify just blatant lies like that Remain graphic?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 22, 2019, 01:04:13 pm
This came through the door earlier. Now that's what I call a misleading bar chart.

Looks like the Greens are really gunning to turn this into a long-term target. I think a major reason for the Remain Alliance coming into place was so the Greens could get a few more of those. Anything other than third this time around would shock me of course, but who knows what'll happen in the future.(Although I suspect the boundary changes that need to happen eventually will screw them over in that endeavour)
How do they justify just blatant lies like that Remain graphic?

To be fair, it isn't a lie - that's the European election figures for Green+LD+any other Remain parties like CHUK (lol), or at least a close estimation of the numbers. What it is is exceptionally misleading but we've been seeing that a lot lately...


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Tintrlvr on November 22, 2019, 01:34:30 pm
This came through the door earlier. Now that's what I call a misleading bar chart.

Looks like the Greens are really gunning to turn this into a long-term target. I think a major reason for the Remain Alliance coming into place was so the Greens could get a few more of those. Anything other than third this time around would shock me of course, but who knows what'll happen in the future.(Although I suspect the boundary changes that need to happen eventually will screw them over in that endeavour)
How do they justify just blatant lies like that Remain graphic?

To be fair, it isn't a lie - that's the European election figures for Green+LD+any other Remain parties like CHUK (lol), or at least a close estimation of the numbers. What it is is exceptionally misleading but we've been seeing that a lot lately...

LD+Green etc. really got 64% of the vote there? That's honestly surprising, I knew the LDs won most of the rockribbed Labour seats in core London at the EU elections, but didn't know they won any by those margins.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 22, 2019, 02:16:15 pm
Corbyn just confirmed that he would, in no uncertain terms, stand as a politically neutral party in Labour's hypothetical 'labour deal versus remain' referendum. The rest of his position was the normal half-and-half between Remain and Leave.

Also gives a half-and-half on IndyRef2. Says Labour will oppose the IndyRef for the first 2-3 years of their govt, uncertain beyond that. While neutrality might be better on Brexit, this seems like an approach designed to piss of all of Unionists/Seperatists/Scottish labour.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 22, 2019, 03:28:15 pm
Labour can't categorically say no to IndyRef (they need to have at least some channel of communication with the SNP open, which requires keeping the possibility open), but they obviously shouldn't promise it explicitly, for the sake of their own unionist voters. Just like on Brexit, this is not an ideal stance but it's the least bad choice for Labour.

The fact that Labour refuse to go all in on these bullsh*t culture war issues and persists in focusing on bread-and-butter issues that actually affect people's lives is one of the thing I like most about this party. The next Labour leader will have to change many things from the Corbyn years, but I really hope they aren't foolish enough to change that.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 22, 2019, 03:48:16 pm
Labour can't categorically say no to IndyRef (they need to have at least some channel of communication with the SNP open, which requires keeping the possibility open), but they obviously shouldn't promise it explicitly, for the sake of their own unionist voters. Just like on Brexit, this is not an ideal stance but it's the least bad choice for Labour.

The fact that Labour refuse to go all in on these bullsh*t culture war issues and persists in focusing on bread-and-butter issues that actually affect people's lives is one of the thing I like most about this party. The next Labour leader will have to change many things from the Corbyn years, but I really hope they aren't foolish enough to change that.

I'd disagree that Labour hasn't gone all in on culture war issues (which when it comes to equality, I personally wouldn't categorise as bullsh*t); it has (even in the manifesto) But it is good at keeping to core 'Labour' face to face issues and trying to draw the Tories to that fight where they try and fail to match it with populism.

Labour in Scotland is an awkward coalition of unionists, Orangemen, old Lanarkshire grannies and wealthy Edinburgh suburbanites. If it falls back again then yes, UK Labour have nothing to lose because there's nothing left of the Scottish party to try and keep on side. Ideally, if it wasn't for matters of pride and pushback from the Scottish party, some of whom have over the past decade in trying to 'own the Nats' ended up as fellow travellers to the Tories, Labour would stand down in Scotland completely.

So I think a swift agreement with the SNP would happen; that's why the first 'one or two years of a Labour government' is the line; not 'never'.



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: parochial boy on November 22, 2019, 04:07:00 pm
In glamorous Bury this weekend so had the chance to watch the Question Time thingy and er, Jo Swinson, yikes....

Also, genuinely amazed that there seem to be absolutely no signs of an impending election anywhere. Like no yard signs, posters, nothing. It’s almost a bit dystopian it’s so absent


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 22, 2019, 04:09:38 pm
In glamorous Bury this weekend so had the chance to watch the Question Time thingy and er, Jo Swinson, yikes....

Swinson was fine. It's just the audience was packed with Corbynites to trip her up, because contrary to some belief, the media is biased in favour of Corbyn, not against him.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Anomalocaris🌹 on November 22, 2019, 04:21:06 pm
In glamorous Bury this weekend so had the chance to watch the Question Time thingy and er, Jo Swinson, yikes....

Swinson was fine. It's just the audience was packed with Corbynites to trip her up, because contrary to some belief, the media is biased in favour of Corbyn, not against him.

"Some belief" = Literally the only reasonable description of observable reality. This is a media that reports on the arguably mispronunciation of a pedophile's surname as a national crisis while four million people are forced to use food banks. Even the most deranged of anti-Corbyn partisans cannot seriously defend the media's conduct against the man over the last four years.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 22, 2019, 04:21:09 pm
In glamorous Bury this weekend so had the chance to watch the Question Time thingy and er, Jo Swinson, yikes....

Swinson was fine. It's just the audience was packed with Corbynites to trip her up, because contrary to some belief, the media is biased in favour of Corbyn, not against him.

No.

She was terrible; one of the worst TV guttings of any political leader I've seen.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Anomalocaris🌹 on November 22, 2019, 04:23:17 pm
In glamorous Bury this weekend so had the chance to watch the Question Time thingy and er, Jo Swinson, yikes....

Swinson was fine. It's just the audience was packed with Corbynites to trip her up, because contrary to some belief, the media is biased in favour of Corbyn, not against him.

No.

She was terrible; one of the worst TV guttings of any political leader I've seen.

You're talking to someone who sincerely thinks the commentariat is biased in favor of Jeremy Corbyn. There's no point in even engaging.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Anomalocaris🌹 on November 22, 2019, 04:24:56 pm
Swinson posts live footage of her party walking towards single-digit polling:


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: bigic on November 22, 2019, 04:25:10 pm
I see this thread is becoming as bad as the Israel thread once was...


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Justice Blair on November 22, 2019, 04:27:28 pm
Thank god I'm trying a politics free weekend!


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 22, 2019, 04:29:45 pm
Yeah I know I'm an SNP supporter and activist, but I do objectively think

Sturgeon


Corbyn






Boris



























(upside down kangaroo)









Swinson


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 22, 2019, 04:32:45 pm
I've mentioned elsewhere that the decision to do public questions in urban Sheffield led to a very pro-labour crowd. Nobody except Labour is going to win these votes, except maybe in sheff-Hallam which is a different electorate than the city. Everyone who wasn't Jeremy Corbyn got raked over the coals, it just was less obvious with Sturgeon since they made an effort to get Scots in the crowd. In contrast, Corbyn got soapboxes from the crowd in his favor. If you have already made up your mind, then you are going to see this panel as a biased affair and rally around your candidate of choice.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 22, 2019, 04:37:59 pm
And of course, filling an audience with those people definitely means the BBC is biased against Corbyn.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 22, 2019, 04:40:52 pm
And of course, filling an audience with those people definitely means the BBC is biased against Corbyn.

Which it isn't. If the BBC has any bias, it's biased in favor of a competitive race. But that won't stop partisans from rallying around the flag and digging in deeper, because that is always easier if you have made up your mind - it's harder to change.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Lord Halifax on November 22, 2019, 04:42:57 pm
Getting closer.



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 22, 2019, 05:07:17 pm
"Some belief" = Literally the only reasonable description of observable reality. This is a media that reports on the arguably mispronunciation of a pedophile's surname as a national crisis while four million people are forced to use food banks. Even the most deranged of anti-Corbyn partisans cannot seriously defend the media's conduct against the man over the last four years.

The food bank figure needs explaining to avoid the kind of wild distortions that ultimately hurt Labour.

The figure is more like three million and that's the number of parcels that were given out. Food bank parcels contain three days of food for emergency situations, which are very frequently, but not always benefit related. You need a note from the Jobcentre or a doctor to get one:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/nov/05/welfare-changes-key-factor-rising-poverty-food-bank-use-study-finds

'Benefit sanctions' is a loss of benefit for breaking the conditions for having them:
https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/benefit-sanctions

Considering I once got sanctioned for going to an agency registration instead of signing on - and had told the JCP what I was doing beforehand, they might be fairly casual in handing them out. I did manage to successfully appeal that one.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Justice Blair on November 22, 2019, 05:21:34 pm
fwiw much like QT the BBC would weight the attention; even in Sheffield you are more than capable of finding enough Conservatives, or heaven forbid they could find people sad enough to travel by train.

Besides all it takes is 5-6 people being loutish in the audience to make it appear on TV as if one side is dominant.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Representative Thumb21 on November 22, 2019, 05:59:38 pm
I think that if anyone had a favourable audience, it was probably Sturgeon. She wasn't questioned nearly as strongly as the other leaders. It was a mainly English audience who probably weren't as well informed on her record.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: parochial boy on November 22, 2019, 06:32:34 pm
Sheffield though. It may be a big safe Labour city, but it’s hardly a Manchester, or even a Leeds. It’s still a city that voted for Brexit, is still in many ways struggling with the decline of employment in the steel industry - and for all it has the students and stuff round Broomhill or Ecclesall, it’s also got places like Hillsborough or Attercliffe that are a good fit for that « northern working class left behind » type voter who we are told voted Brexit and are deserting Labour in droves. Not all big urban areas are alike (and if the tories are still cancer in south yorks there’s a reason for it of course)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 22, 2019, 06:52:45 pm
Swinson bombed, and anyone who actually watched it and disagrees is simply delusional.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Coastal Elitist on November 22, 2019, 08:05:52 pm
Sheffield though. It may be a big safe Labour city, but it’s hardly a Manchester, or even a Leeds. It’s still a city that voted for Brexit, is still in many ways struggling with the decline of employment in the steel industry - and for all it has the students and stuff round Broomhill or Ecclesall, it’s also got places like Hillsborough or Attercliffe that are a good fit for that « northern working class left behind » type voter who we are told voted Brexit and are deserting Labour in droves. Not all big urban areas are alike (and if the tories are still cancer in south yorks there’s a reason for it of course)
It's not far off Leeds who barely voted to remain. It was pretty clear that the audience was heavily pro labour. With that being said I don't think there really is a point to debates or these type of events because everyone declares themselves the winner afterwards.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 23, 2019, 01:20:10 am
I'd disagree that Labour hasn't gone all in on culture war issues (which when it comes to equality, I personally wouldn't categorise as bullsh*t);

I should clarify that that's not what I meant by "bullsh*t culture war issues". Basically, the distinction I make is between issues that are about providing symbolic benefits to a constituency vs those that are about material benefits. There are certainly plenty of LGBT-related issues that fall into the latter category (as there are plenty of Brexit-related issues - and Labour's position on the material component of Brexit is indeed excellent all around). There's a difference between those questions and the questions that are mainly around the affirmation of symbols (of which the Scottish independence question is one, because let's face it, the material consequences of it are impossible to assess one way or the other, and even if they weren't, they clearly aren't what's driving support or opposition to independence).


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 23, 2019, 04:01:02 am
Swinson bombed, and anyone who actually watched it and disagrees is simply delusional.

I watched all but Corbyn's bit and I thought Swinson did reasonably well given how hard she was getting hit. The evening was probably still a net negative for her, but I didn't see a moment that was truly irredeemable. Sadly, Johnson also didn't have such a moment, though I think he also came out looking worse overall. The part of his shtick where he babbles/stutters in the lead up to point gets old fast in a setting like this. I also think it makes him look frazzled and unprepared, but that might just be my motivated reasoning at work.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 23, 2019, 06:06:04 am
Sheffield though. It may be a big safe Labour city, but it’s hardly a Manchester, or even a Leeds. It’s still a city that voted for Brexit, is still in many ways struggling with the decline of employment in the steel industry - and for all it has the students and stuff round Broomhill or Ecclesall, it’s also got places like Hillsborough or Attercliffe that are a good fit for that « northern working class left behind » type voter who we are told voted Brexit and are deserting Labour in droves. Not all big urban areas are alike (and if the tories are still cancer in south yorks there’s a reason for it of course)
It's not far off Leeds who barely voted to remain. It was pretty clear that the audience was heavily pro labour. With that being said I don't think there really is a point to debates or these type of events because everyone declares themselves the winner afterwards.

Generally true, but not universally so as the fall out from this one shows ;)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 23, 2019, 06:17:14 am
Interesting analysis of the campaign from Conservative Home:

   https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/11/johnsons-campaign-stops-suggest-cchq-is-not-betting-the-house-on-a-landslide-yet.html

It notes that unlike May, Johnson has weathered both his first debate and the launch of Labour’s Manifesto.  If he can weather the launch of his own, he might be set.”

It points out he has divided his time between with visits to the West Midlands were there are several Labour marginals and visits to the South West “to shore up Liberal Democrat facing marginals.”  Thus he seems to be “dividing his attention pretty evenly between defensive and offensive targets.”

It concludes the “key test of a commander is their ability to adapt on the fly.  With Labour failing their 2017 ignition and Liberal Dem campaign appearing to stall, the Conservative strategists might have to make a decision whether to adopt a more ambitious and aggressive posture.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on November 23, 2019, 06:17:57 am
Getting closer.



It's worth noting that the Tories have kept a decent lead solely by cannibalizing the Leave vote and turning the Brexit Party into dust. The ceiling for the Tories is no higher than the 42% they have here. On the other hand, by squeezing a few seats away from the SNP in Scotland and continuing to eat away at the LibDem (presumably Remain) vote, they can continue to grow as in 2015.

So with a few weeks left the Tories have a nice lead but have no room to grow, and Labour trails but still has a lot of room to grow. Sound familiar? I would still rather be the Conservative Party than Labour with these numbers, but the trajectory of this campaign means that at Tory HQ they'll be white-knuckling it to see how much ground Corbyn the Campy Campaigning Champion makes up between now and the election.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Zinneke on November 23, 2019, 06:19:02 am
It was a strange crowd - at one point Fiona Bruce picked like 7 Scottish nationalists in a row to ask questions to Corbyn about Scotland. So Swinson getting grief from the more local middle class youth was maybe the least surprising thing - but she's not as effective a campaigner and speaker as she thinks she is. I actually though Boris handled his first part terrible mainly because he just couldn't answer their concerns about Russia and then he rallied well. Sturgeon was forgettable. Corbyn was the best, but apart from the antisemitism the questions were all easily replied within the manifesto's confines.


I really hope Swinson's incompetence and radical message on Remain doesn't cost soft Tories who find a potential Johnson Premiership "unbecoming" . Think her general tone will cost potential upset seats like Esher where people otherwise positive about a LiBDem platform see her and think its a joke party again.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 23, 2019, 07:48:06 am
Survation has completed a poll for the Daily Mail.  It shows 30 northern ridings are set swing to the conservatives:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7716641/Tories-win-30-seats-Labours-northern-heartland.html

Most of Corbynites posting here have maintained that Survation was the best pollster in 2017. Well Survation never produced any polling similar to this in 2017.  I cannot wait to get the cross tabs.

I cannot wait to see how you Corbynites explain away this poll.
    


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 23, 2019, 07:51:15 am
()


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 23, 2019, 08:11:11 am
The Daily Mail website is a pain to use so I might have missed stuff, but this is impressively dishonest stuff. This appears to be a regional poll (of the whole of the North of England and the Midlands!) that shows a swing of 4.5. Which is not substantially different to what national polling suggests at present - actually it is slightly less than the most recent Survation national poll. In order to justify the general tone of the article, they have decided to milk the hell of out selected subsamples, which, as we all know, is serious '...' territory. It is a little disturbing that they have a quote to that effect as well from someone from the polling firm in question; this is the sort of thing that does not help boost confidence in the polling industry.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: urutzizu on November 23, 2019, 08:50:05 am
Yougov: 42(0)/30(0)/16(+1)/4(0)/3(-1)   21-22 Nov

Tory Manifesto will be released tomorrow.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 23, 2019, 09:02:23 am
While I think this piece from the Mail is nothing but A+ level spin, I would push back on the idea that constituency polls are useless. A constituency poll is like throwing a dart at a dart board with limited accuracy in regards to results. You should never expect bulls eyes, but no darts will end up incredibly far from that center. They in essence are data points, which work best with other data points and not standing on their own, just like every other poll ever.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: parochial boy on November 23, 2019, 09:10:48 am
Could I just make the point that The. UK. Does. Not. Have. Ridings.

Thanks


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 23, 2019, 12:52:02 pm
So there's an expectation of a glut of polls this weekend.

Worth remembering is that all that matters is the direction of travel not the actual individual gaps as such; last weekend saw a widening of the Tory lead after Labour had been closing the gap.

I'm taking a risk here but if Labour don't close the gap even marginally this weekend, it does look difficult for them to 'repeat 2017' which has been the mantra I've heard a lot from activists. The caveat to this is the 'likely to vote' numbers especially for younger voters. They should start to tick up.

But again there's a potential for this to be the election that 2017 'should have been.'


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 23, 2019, 12:57:48 pm
And on that front, Opinium have the Tory lead up to 19 points up from 16 points last week.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 23, 2019, 01:17:34 pm
I think the current betting arounds of around 65% chance of a Tory majority look right, IMHO. Unless Labour manages to pull this back, we'll be facing a Johnson government with a working majority with all that entails.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 23, 2019, 01:21:43 pm
I think the current betting arounds of around 65% chance of a Tory majority look right, IMHO. Unless Labour manages to pull this back, we'll be facing a Johnson government with a working majority with all that entails.

I think if things don't shift to a lead of less than 8%, probably a landslide. Something that sees them through to 2024 and perhaps strong enough to weather 2029.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 23, 2019, 01:26:11 pm
So far of the weekend glut we have had...

Panelbase: Con 42, Lab 32, LDem 14, BP 3, Greens 3. A change from a 13pt lead to a 10pt one on the week.
YouGov: Con 42, Lab 30, LDem 16, Greens 4, BP 3. No change on a poll they did midweek, but a change from an 18pt lead to a 12pt one on their last weekend poll.
Opinium: Con 47, Lab 28, LDem 12, BP 3. A change from a 16pt lead to a 19pt one on the week.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 23, 2019, 01:28:48 pm
I think if things don't shift to a lead of less than 8%, probably a landslide. Something that sees them through to 2024 and perhaps strong enough to weather 2029.

If votes were ever somewhat banked, they aren't now. So there's no point worrying about the longer term.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 23, 2019, 01:40:38 pm
I think if things don't shift to a lead of less than 8%, probably a landslide. Something that sees them through to 2024 and perhaps strong enough to weather 2029.

If votes were ever somewhat banked, they aren't now. So there's no point worrying about the longer term.

I think it's based on sizeable majorities insulating governments somewhat of which there's some political theory behind; 1987 helping Major in 1992, 2001 helping Labour in 2005 despite just a 3 point lead (and 2005 making 2010 harder for the Tories). This is the third (quick) election for the incumbent Tories and if Boris walks away with a majority of 100, it's probably not going to become a Labour majority of say 10 in one cycle.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Justice Blair on November 23, 2019, 02:07:39 pm
Survation has completed a poll for the Daily Mail.  It shows 30 northern ridings are set swing to the conservatives:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7716641/Tories-win-30-seats-Labours-northern-heartland.html

Most of Corbynites posting here have maintained that Survation was the best pollster in 2017. Well Survation never produced any polling similar to this in 2017.  I cannot wait to get the cross tabs.

I cannot wait to see how you Corbynites explain away this poll.
    

Why are you talking about a riding?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 23, 2019, 02:08:53 pm
That is pretty much what happened in 1964 and 1970 though. Landslides in the elections before that and the incumbent government lost power five years later.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 23, 2019, 02:23:07 pm
So far of the weekend glut we have had...

Panelbase: Con 42, Lab 32, LDem 14, BP 3, Greens 3. A change from a 13pt lead to a 10pt one on the week.
YouGov: Con 42, Lab 30, LDem 16, Greens 4, BP 3. No change on a poll they did midweek, but a change from an 18pt lead to a 12pt one on their last weekend poll.
Opinium: Con 47, Lab 28, LDem 12, BP 3. A change from a 16pt lead to a 19pt one on the week.

BMG: Con 41, Lab 28, LDem 18, Greens 5, BP 3. A change from an 8pt lead to 13pt point one on the week, but last week's BMG poll made no adjustment for the Brexit Party standing down in Conservative-held constituencies.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 23, 2019, 02:23:50 pm
Next of the weekend polls:



There are also three London constituency polls similar to what we saw last week (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=342041.msg7055759#msg7055759), so I'm going to wait for the Guardian to make their post before talking about them.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: DaWN on November 23, 2019, 02:34:20 pm
I think its becoming very clear that the pollsters don't have the tiniest bloody idea of what's going on apart from the fact the Tories are in the lead.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 23, 2019, 02:46:22 pm
I think it's based on sizeable majorities insulating governments somewhat of which there's some political theory behind; 1987 helping Major in 1992, 2001 helping Labour in 2005 despite just a 3 point lead (and 2005 making 2010 harder for the Tories). This is the third (quick) election for the incumbent Tories and if Boris walks away with a majority of 100, it's probably not going to become a Labour majority of say 10 in one cycle.

There's a certain logic to the idea of mass-incumbency bonuses, sure, but I would say that it is more of an occasional tendency than a rule. Three figure majorities melted away at the first challenge in 1964 and 1970, for instance. A long time ago now, a literal lifetime away, yes, but the issue is the operation of this most obviously idiotic of electoral systems rather than direct comparison. And of course one only needs to look at what happened in Scotland in 2015 to see what can happen when the electorate has decisively changed its mind these days: if things turn, they turn. Party affinity and party loyalty at present are also so extremely low now that I wouldn't even be particularly surprised if a genuinely new party were to do randomly very well out of nowhere at some point.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: cp on November 23, 2019, 03:09:43 pm
I think it's based on sizeable majorities insulating governments somewhat of which there's some political theory behind; 1987 helping Major in 1992, 2001 helping Labour in 2005 despite just a 3 point lead (and 2005 making 2010 harder for the Tories). This is the third (quick) election for the incumbent Tories and if Boris walks away with a majority of 100, it's probably not going to become a Labour majority of say 10 in one cycle.

There's a certain logic to the idea of mass-incumbency bonuses, sure, but I would say that it is more of an occasional tendency than a rule. Three figure majorities melted away at the first challenge in 1964 and 1970, for instance. A long time ago now, a literal lifetime away, yes, but the issue is the operation of this most obviously idiotic of electoral systems rather than direct comparison. And of course one only needs to look at what happened in Scotland in 2015 to see what can happen when the electorate has decisively changed its mind these days: if things turn, they turn. Party affinity and party loyalty at present are also so extremely low now that I wouldn't even be particularly surprised if a genuinely new party were to do randomly very well out of nowhere at some point.

This is basically the idea behind the model I posted a link to a couple weeks back. It's based on previous election performance, the concept of swing, and leader ratings, and predicted a hung parliament with the Tories losing a handful of seats.

For all the sturm and drang of polling hype, there seems to be a few clear patterns: Tories stable in the low/mid 40s, Labour slowly rising. If those trends continue for the next three weeks a hung parliament is more likely than not.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 23, 2019, 03:23:08 pm
Still no word on whether there will be a Scotland only poll. None so far this campaign (we'd had 5 this time during the last campaign) and Wales is due it's second on Monday.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 23, 2019, 03:33:45 pm
Anyway, The Guardian failed to produce nice charts like last time (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=342041.msg7055759#msg7055759), so here's the three London Constituency Polls I mentioned. Link to the relevant Guardian piece.
 (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/poll-models-fail-spot-voting-variation-london-marginal-seats)

Hendon (Barnet):

Con: 51% (+3)
Lab: 33% (-13)
Lib: 12% (+8)
Grn: 1% (-)

If only Lab/Lib had a change of winning the seat:

Con: 55% / 53%
Lab: 41% / 7%
Lib: 4% / 39%
Grn: 0% / 1%

Cities of London and Westminster:

Con: 39% (-8)
Lib: 33% (+22)
Lab: 26% (-12)
Grn: 1% (-1)

If only Lab/Lib had a change of winning the seat:

Con: 49% / 42%
Lab: 44% / 5%
Lib: 7% / 51%
Grn: 0% / 1%

Chelsea & Fulham:

Con: 48% (-5)
Lib: 25% (+14)
Lab: 24% (-9)

If only Lab/Lib had a change of winning the seat:

Con: 57% / 49%
Lib: 7% / 43%
Lab: 35% / 8%

Obvious disclaimer about constituency polls is obvious. Changes are  with the 2017 results.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: bigic on November 23, 2019, 05:09:25 pm


That's pretty bad for the Lib Dems, gaining just 2 seats compared to 2017 despite doubling the level of support.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 23, 2019, 05:18:03 pm
The Lib Dems have had a real problem of strong support not being translated into seats under FPTP. It's no surprise that they're big electoral reform advocates.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 23, 2019, 05:41:59 pm
So far of the weekend glut we have had...

Panelbase: Con 42, Lab 32, LDem 14, BP 3, Greens 3. A change from a 13pt lead to a 10pt one on the week.
YouGov: Con 42, Lab 30, LDem 16, Greens 4, BP 3. No change on a poll they did midweek, but a change from an 18pt lead to a 12pt one on their last weekend poll.
Opinium: Con 47, Lab 28, LDem 12, BP 3. A change from a 16pt lead to a 19pt one on the week.

BMG: Con 41, Lab 28, LDem 18, Greens 5, BP 3. A change from an 8pt lead to 13pt point one on the week, but last week's BMG poll made no adjustment for the Brexit Party standing down in Conservative-held constituencies.

Deltapoll: Con 43, Lab 30, LDem 16, BP 3, Others ???. A change from a 15pt lead to a 13pt one on the week.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 23, 2019, 05:45:03 pm
The Lib Dems have had a real problem of strong support not being translated into seats under FPTP. It's no surprise that they're big electoral reform advocates.

Also seems that they underperform in every campaign recently (2010 is more of a mixed bag though where they overperformed expectations at the start of the campaign while underperforming end of campaign expectations)


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Lord Halifax on November 23, 2019, 05:56:38 pm


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 23, 2019, 06:09:04 pm
Breaking: Wolf Swears he Won't Eat the Sheep This Time


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Oryxslayer on November 23, 2019, 06:11:32 pm
The Lib Dems have had a real problem of strong support not being translated into seats under FPTP. It's no surprise that they're big electoral reform advocates.

Also seems that they underperform in every campaign recently (2010 is more of a mixed bag though where they overperformed expectations at the start of the campaign while underperforming end of campaign expectations)

LDs have kinda a weird situation. They always underperform their projected vote, because their voters are on average more likely to be white-collar, educated, politically-attuned, and be at least stable in their situation. This leads to a voter base that if presented with a seat where it is obvious the LDs stand no chance, the LD voter will be more likely to cast a red or blue vote depending on his/her opinions. On the other hand, the LDs will outperform the number of seats they should be getting for said percentage. This is because the LD strategy is to narrow in on targets with a greater propensity to flip orange. This often makes LD swing impossible to calculate since they could potentially have a 'latent' voter base in a seat that will be activated by campaign resources. A LD incumbent in this regard is a powerful resource. I personally have the LDs a lot higher in my current 'excel prediction' than most models, because of these historical trends. Mostly this is because Wealthy West London seems poised to be 'activated' and go into strategic voting mode.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 23, 2019, 06:55:15 pm
So far of the weekend glut we have had...

Panelbase: Con 42, Lab 32, LDem 14, BP 3, Greens 3. A change from a 13pt lead to a 10pt one on the week.
YouGov: Con 42, Lab 30, LDem 16, Greens 4, BP 3. No change on a poll they did midweek, but a change from an 18pt lead to a 12pt one on their last weekend poll.
Opinium: Con 47, Lab 28, LDem 12, BP 3. A change from a 16pt lead to a 19pt one on the week.

BMG: Con 41, Lab 28, LDem 18, Greens 5, BP 3. A change from an 8pt lead to 13pt point one on the week, but last week's BMG poll made no adjustment for the Brexit Party standing down in Conservative-held constituencies.

Deltapoll: Con 43, Lab 30, LDem 16, BP 3, Others ???. A change from a 15pt lead to a 13pt one on the week.

ComRes: Con 42, Lab 32, LDem 15, BP 5, SNP 4, Greens 2. A change from an 8pt lead to a 10pt one on the week, but a change from an 11pt one to a 10pt one compared to a poll out midweek.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 23, 2019, 07:32:37 pm
Anybody who *really* believes the Tories are ahead by 47-28 probably shouldn't be allowed out unattended.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Lord Halifax on November 23, 2019, 07:52:38 pm
Panelbase poll of Scotland

SNP 40%
Tories 28%
Labour 20%
Lib Dems 11%
BxP less than 1%

Not great for SNP.



Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: jaichind on November 23, 2019, 07:55:53 pm
My main concern about this latest batch of polls are that the CON+BXP vote share seems to be dropping from something like 48% to something like 46%.  Any CON gains are mostly from gains from BXP due to real shifts in support or methodological changes to take into account that BXP will only be running in half the seats.  At this stage CON gains are maxed out vis-a-vis BXP and any more gains will have to be from LAB or LIB.  But the recent trends seems to be the other direction.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 23, 2019, 08:09:36 pm
Also remember the LibDems ended this parliament with 20 MPs and brought on this election to try and get more MPs, it would be ironic if (as seems pretty likely) they end up with less MPs than they went in with.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Lumine on November 23, 2019, 08:17:28 pm
I have wonder what kind of result would force Swinson into resigning. Would she be able to stay on if the party barely makes any gains - or even loses seats -? Are we looking at Tim Farron 2: Electric Boogaloo?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Coastal Elitist on November 23, 2019, 08:25:35 pm
Still no word on whether there will be a Scotland only poll. None so far this campaign (we'd had 5 this time during the last campaign) and Wales is due it's second on Monday.
New scotland poll


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Annatar on November 23, 2019, 08:54:19 pm
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1198360854959403010

Looks like turnout will be high this election as people consider it important.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: TWTown on November 23, 2019, 10:50:50 pm
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1198360854959403010

Looks like turnout will be high this election as people consider it important.
Surely this bodes better for Labour then it does for the Tories?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: morgieb on November 23, 2019, 11:56:41 pm
I have wonder what kind of result would force Swinson into resigning. Would she be able to stay on if the party barely makes any gains - or even loses seats -? Are we looking at Tim Farron 2: Electric Boogaloo?
If the result remains fairly static from 2017? Then she probably goes. But she is getting a 8% swing or so, which isn't insubstantial.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Zaybay on November 24, 2019, 12:09:23 am
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1198360854959403010

Looks like turnout will be high this election as people consider it important.
Surely this bodes better for Labour then it does for the Tories?

Depends on if an increase in turnout disproportionately effects young voters or not. If it does, then most pollsters likely wont be able to see it and will severely overestimate the Tories(this was a problem in 2017).


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 24, 2019, 12:55:07 am
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1198360854959403010

Looks like turnout will be high this election as people consider it important.
Surely this bodes better for Labour then it does for the Tories?

Perhaps, the EU referendum was the highest turnout vote in decades and like 6% higher turnout than the 2015 election, but that didn't mean Remain did well. On the other hand, the 2017 election was also high turnout by UK standards, and also higher turnout from 2015 and Labour did better than 2015.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 24, 2019, 03:52:52 am
Panelbase poll of Scotland

SNP 40%
Tories 28%
Labour 20%
Lib Dems 11%
BxP less than 1%

Not great for SNP.


If the results above proved correct is it not likely that the Tories would only lose one of its 13 seats in Scotland?  That would be Stirling.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: afleitch on November 24, 2019, 04:19:17 am
Panelbase poll of Scotland

SNP 40%
Tories 28%
Labour 20%
Lib Dems 11%
BxP less than 1%

Not great for SNP.


If the results above proved correct is it not likely that the Tories would only lose one of its 13 seats in Scotland?  That would be Stirling.

It's the best result with Panelbase for the SNP in two tears. Tories are back up to 2017 levels in line with the country. A result like that could still see the Tories almost wiped out ot even make gains; it'll depend on local swings.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 24, 2019, 04:28:18 am
What do the Corbynites here think Maureen Lipman? What do the Labour who do not really like Corbyn think of her?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Pericles on November 24, 2019, 04:45:14 am
Also remember the LibDems ended this parliament with 20 MPs and brought on this election to try and get more MPs, it would be ironic if (as seems pretty likely) they end up with less MPs than they went in with.

This, plus Jo Swinson running a leader focused campaign despite being unappealing to the public and not suitable for such a campaign (and ends up dropping in the polls in that campaign) could mean Swinson ends up being the Theresa May of the 2019 election.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Walmart_shopper on November 24, 2019, 05:54:14 am
My main concern about this latest batch of polls are that the CON+BXP vote share seems to be dropping from something like 48% to something like 46%.  Any CON gains are mostly from gains from BXP due to real shifts in support or methodological changes to take into account that BXP will only be running in half the seats.  At this stage CON gains are maxed out vis-a-vis BXP and any more gains will have to be from LAB or LIB.  But the recent trends seems to be the other direction.

Because it isn't true that every Brexit vote is a Tory vote. It isn't a one-to-one correspondence and Labour will net a small number of Brexit Party voters if and when they come home.

It seems pretty obvious that Labour will almost inevitably spend the next few weeks eating into the Tory polling lead. The question is whether it's a small bite or a Milliband bacon-bite.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 24, 2019, 05:55:29 am
What do the Corbynites here think Maureen Lipman? What do the Labour who do not really like Corbyn think of her?

The same person who has "turned her back on Labour" on at least four occasions now? And cites AS (of course) but wouldn't vote for the party when it had a Jewish leader??


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 24, 2019, 06:45:55 am
Ed Miliband was actually pretty friendly to the Palestinian cause - recognition of the State of Palestine was on the Labour manifesto in 2015.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 24, 2019, 08:49:33 am
We are 18 days from the election.   In 2017 Labour average in the polls was averaging around 33.  It is now 29 now.  When is it going to reach 33?


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: CumbrianLeftie on November 24, 2019, 09:12:51 am
Take out the fraudulent Opinium poll, and this weekend's surveys are very similar to the same point in 2017. Which does not mean history is bound to repeat itself, but maybe worth bearing in mind.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Arkansas Yankee on November 24, 2019, 09:38:34 am
Take out the fraudulent Opinium poll, and this weekend's surveys are very similar to the same point in 2017. Which does not mean history is bound to repeat itself, but maybe worth bearing in mind.

In 2017 I pointed out by this weekend Labour was averaging around 33.  Even excluding the Opinium poll this year it is averaging only around 30.   When is it going to reach 33 this year?
It has to make such a move sometime.


Title: Re: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 24, 2019, 09:44:03 am
Every election is different, but