Talk Elections

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/01/us/politics/iowa-poll-warren-biden.html

Petementum !

Biden in third

Oh dear that's close. Really hope Warren wins this, she's the best candidate if and if she loses, regardless of who else wins, Biden will be the nominee.

It's also a debate qualifying poll (NYT).

+1 for Klobuchar for December.

She has 2/4 now.

This is absolutely stunning.

This is a good poll for Warren, an excellent poll for Sanders and Buttigieg, and a terrible poll for Biden. He really is dropping the ball in these early states, and along with the fact that he's hemorrhaging money, I have doubts that he would even be able to lead an opposition if Warren/Sanders won IA, NH, and NV.

I wouldn't be surprised if Pete was the dark horse here, with Sanders in second and Warren third.

Iowa has a track history of voting for underdogs.

2/3rd of the voters way they could change their preference & are not fully decided, so the field is very fluid. For Sanders, the positive he has the most committed & least likely to change voters as per this poll & he is also 2nd in the 2nd choice voters.

I don't see any silver lining for Biden. It is very likely that his voters are the least energized & most likely to not turn out. He also has a weak ground game. His numbers among young voters are horrendous. If Biden actually finishes 4th in Iowa & 3rd/4th in NH, he will find a very tough race.

It would surprise me because of the prevalence of women supporting women candidates in 2018. Pete could surprise but I don’t think he gains at warren’s expense unless she seriously gaffes.

Please elaborate.

BTW Sanders is beating Warren among 30-44 & 45-55 voters (& losing badly among 65+) but the interesting part is Warren is beating Sanders among 18-29 voters comfortably which is an anomaly vs national trends. So either she is doing much stronger among young voters in Iowa than other states or if the small sample size of young voters in this poll is too friendly for her, then she may well be 1-2-3% behind Sanders overall.

Either way this is a very close & fluid race. Warren also has incredible 2nd choice numbers including among most of Sanders voters.

Can someone kamikaze Buttigieg already? The media and rich donors keep propping this guy up and his sanctimonious act is just unbearable.

Says the Beto supporter.

You may want to adjust your bifocals and have another look.

...

I’ve been a Warren supporter since the summer. Keep up n!gga

New Poll: Iowa President by Siena Research Institute on 2019-10-30 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1920191030079)

Summary:

Warren:	22%
Sanders:	19%
Buttigieg:	18%
Biden:	17%
Other:	16%
Undecided:	8 %

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/01/us/politics/iowa-poll-warren-biden.html)

Your username threw me off and it's early. Sorry!

Agreed - I would like him more if he A) wasn't such a robot and B) got off the whole 'holier than thou' attitude thing.

Sorry, but I find nothing genuine about that guy. Everything comes off scripted and disingenuous

Lmao. I’m dead.

No problem fam, I used the “-a” instead of “-er” so you’re fine.

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The establishment is trying to replace Biden with Buttigieg but they are too stupid to understand that he can't absorb Biden's voters in most states.

lmao

DROP OUT, BERNIE!

Why Harris is pictured in the graph, but not Yang who got the same percentage as her?

#YangMediaBlackout continues. It's getting shameful at this point.

I'm getting 2008 vibes from IA this year.

Finally a proper Poll here!

I agree.

Fix that sarcasm detector, clown. 

That image is cropped. The original graphic in the article includes Yang

No commentary from Nate Silver when his top tier candidate is at 3% in a state she went 'full in on' months ago?

Yeah. Honestly they should have included neither of them.

Klobuchar and Harris' supporters could wind up deciding this race with their second choice. Remember that you need 15% to be viable, and within your precinct that number becomes even more critical. Biden is in position to suffer from this bigtime.

Full results at 538:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/iowa/

Warren 22%
Sanders 19%
Buttigieg 18%
Biden 17%
Klobuchar 4%
Harris 3%
Yang 3%
Booker 2%
Steyer 2%
Gabbard 2%
everyone else 0%

DROP OUT, BIDEN!

Harris should probably drop out.

Last comment I can find from him is from mid-September when he said Harris was not in the top tier and ranked her together with Buttigieg down in tier 2b. So not sure your point is very strong.

Looking pretty bad for Sloth Biden since Buttigieg seems to have taken a chunk of his support, clearly. Still, a Buttigieg-Sanders-whoever top finish in IA-NH-NV respectively is unequivocally a better result than a Warren sweep. That's a less powerful narrative going into SC and Super Tuesday.

Buttigieg is now second in Atlas's IA poll average.

No wonder Harris is desperate in trying to win over Iowans, due to Warren's stamina in the race. Warren and Buttigieg will probably be the last two standing. Polls like USA Today and Rassy consistently are understating Warren

He's second in the same average on RCP as well.

BOOMtigieg!

How long before we get a Butti-1 poll?

Good for Warren/Sanders/Buttigieg, not so good for Biden, humiliating for Harris. While Biden finishing just barely behind Sanders/Buttigieg, and 5% behind Warren wouldn't be terrible for him mathematically, getting 4th wouldn't be good optics for him, especially if he gets 3rd or 4th in NH as well.

Biden is now relying on a McCain type bounceback, in SC instead of NH (4th state to vote) and his supposed firewall on Super Tuesday. His CoH, fundraising and ground game is very arguably worse than any other major candidate. His strategy is basically to hope that his numbers don't crash further in early and northern states and that the southern states will bail him out with large margins. Not a great trajectory at this point in time.

Wow so looking at the breakdown by age, Liz and Pete appear to be in the best shape here if it's really this close.

Keep in mind the 15% threshold. This indicates Biden is likely to do terrible in the higher populated college towns and Sanders will likely struggle in less populated older communities.

I'd much rather be Warren or Buttigieg right now where your distribution among age is more spread out, thus more likely to hit at least 15% everywhere throughout the state. In 2008 Obama decisively won younger voters but still captured nearly 20% of senior voters behind Clinton and Edwards.

My take based on this poll:

1. Warren
2. Buttigieg


3. Biden
4. Sanders

Yes, Biden and Sanders are out. Biden is indeed a sloth and he will go down as the Jeb of 2020😏😏😏😏

Remember though that this time they're actually going to release the raw count of initial preferences, before people reallocate their support on the 15% threshold.  I'm not sure how we know yet how the media is going to handle this. Will the initial preference vote be treated by the media as the "real" results?  Or will they put both sets of numbers up on the screen at once, or what?

I realize that the reallocated #s are the ones that determine delegate allocation, but Iowa's a small state with few delegates.  It matters so much only because of media framing / momentum reasons, so who the media crowns the "winner" matters more than delegates.

Sanders' numbers among young voters are comfortably lower than Warren which is anomaly considering the same poll has Sanders leading among 30-44 & 45-54 age groups where Warren generally leads. There has to be something wrong with the sample either way. If Sanders is leading among 30-54 vs Warren, then he is surely doing a lot better among 18-29 & he is actually leading Warren.

Another thing to consider is Yang-Gabbard voters who are like 5% here & Sanders can get 3-4% from that easily, maybe in some cases votes of Biden & Pete as well.

I don't see Sanders with any risk of dropping below 15%. If anything all polls don't consider the unlikely voter which Sanders is tapping to & under-estimate young voter turnout based on previous turnout levels. That coupled up with the energy of his supporters & huge volunteer & donor base means he will very likely exceed the polls. Just look @ the number of donors of Bernie. It is virtually impossible to fall below 15%.

Another aspect of the polls -

Would you say your mind is made up, or could you still be persuaded to caucus for a different candidate?

% “Mind is made up” by 1st choice candidate:

Sanders: 55%
Biden: 34%
Warren: 26%
Buttigieg: 25%

55% of 19% = 10.45% (Sanders)
34% of 17% = 5.78% (Biden)
26% of 22% = 5.72% (Warren)
25% of 18% - 4.5% (Pete)

There will be considerable movement till Caucus date.

Buttigieg is going to end up winning Iowa Obama 2008 style. 

Yes.

He’s a very good match for the state and he probably has the best ground game there.

Sanders and Biden are gonna be out and Warren and Buttigieg are gonna be in after Iowa. The voters are making a statement that politics the old way, isn't gonna fly; includes Trump and Bden and soon to be ex Leader McConnell

Obama was actually ahead in Iowa polls prior to the caucus. I think Mayor Pete certainly has a good shot of winning, but Obama winning Iowa wasn't that much of a surprise. The big surprise was Clinton coming in third, something Biden could very well replicate.

it was a more mixed bag. Clinton still led in some polls even right before caucus day, and very few polls gave Obama a lead close to his ultimate margin, which came as a surprise. In November, he was not leading but instead was roughly tied with Edwards for second.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_January_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Iowa

Discounting ARG (lol), Zogby (lol), Research 2000 (proven to have been faking) and Strategic Vision (proven to have been faking) (NB: 2008 was a polling wasteland), the polls conducted after Christmas had:

Des Moines Register: Obama+7 over Clinton
CNN: Clinton+2 over Obama
Insider Advantage: Clinton+1 over Edwards with Obama in a distant third
MSNBC/Mason-Dixon: Edwards+1 over Clinton with Obama one point further back; with second preferences, it was Edwards+7 over both Clinton and Obama.

I was going by the final rcp aggregate. But yeah, definitely seems like Hillary was the favorite late December.

But more proof Ann Selzer is the authority on all things Iowa.

Incidentally, the NYT had a poll right around now in Iowa in 2008:

Clinton 25%
Edwards 23%
Obama 22%
Richardson 12%
Biden 4%
Kucinich 1%
Dodd 1%
Undecided 12%

Clinton - Biden
Edwards - Warren?
Obama - Buttigieg

Those are the best parallels I can think of? Not perfect and obviously there isn't a Bernie. I feel like Richardson's number is a mixture of Klobuchar and Yang as a parallel.

Agreed everything about Iowa is more about the media narrative than how the delegates shake out, but regardless whoever comes out on top will get all the hype unless we see someone really unexpected get a close second or third.

This is the first I'm hearing about what you described though. The media is somehow going to release all the first round results before any precinct moves on to their 2nd round of voting? Or once everything is done we'll get both numbers? If it's the former this sounds like a mess. If we end up getting both numbers after it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Maybe. One characteristic of the Iowa 2008 polling even months before the caucuses was that Obama consistently did by far the best with potential caucus-goers who said they were absolutely certain to caucus or otherwise had the highest enthusiasm. I haven't seen enough to see for sure who that's true of this year; at a guess, I think each of Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg have the potential to overperform their polling based on enthusiasm. Biden would almost certainly underperform his polling in a caucus, though, which makes being in fourth in general polling even worse for him (but, beneficially for him, Iowa is really the only true caucus left, so if he can survive a disastrous showing there, there wouldn't be more opportunities to underperform his polling).

Biden can obviously win the nomination even without IA/NH, but finishing 3rd/4th in one or both of them would be absolutely humiliating. The coverage would be brutal.

The fact that they'll be releasing the pre-reallocation raw vote count is mentioned in passing in the Wiki article:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses

and also here:

https://iowademocrats.org/iowa-democratic-party-proposes-historic-changes-2020-iowa-caucuses/


We know that the raw initial vote count will be released on the night of the caucus, but I don't think there's been any clarity on the exact timing beyond that.  Will they just give us the numbers for that at the end of the night (after having been tracking the "state delegate equivalent" number up until that point)?  Will initial and final preferences dribble out slowly precinct by precinct at the same time?  I don't think we know the answer to that.

Are these your thoughts or are they from another site? The 15% threshold is by precinct so in a tight 4 way race with so many options he could very well slip below 15% in many communities.

Of course a lot could change in the next few months, at this point I would put him 3rd at best regardless of his percentage.

Have there been any additional polls confirming that Sanders is virtually getting 0% of Clinton caucus supporters from 2016? That's also horrible for him.

I would guess we'd get them at the same time as everything else. Of course with social media now I'm sure there will be tons of people documenting throughout the night so you'll probably get a small handful of results at some sites beforehand.

Not just could, absolutely will. If this poll were the actual results, every candidate would be below 15% in some polling places, maybe even a lot of polling places.

Curious question: Is there any rule for what happens if no candidate reaches the 15% viability threshold at a particular caucus site? That wouldn't be impossible to happen somewhere with these figures. Top two continue viability? Top three? Just the leader takes all delegates? Delegates go unpledged?

 The combination of Warren/Sanders being the front runner in Iowa is what really is impressive. It shows where The Democratic Party is going.

Warren and Buttigieg are gonna place 1st and 2nd, hopefully,  until SC

There's an interesting glitch on RCP right now whereby, because Pete is in 2nd place for the first time, but Warren has not always been in first place, the graph of the polling margin thinks that Buttigieg was clear in the lead by five points back in May.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html

The media blocked out Yang again I see...

Dude, you change your assessment each day, depending on the newest poll...