Talk Elections

The four states which Republicans last won 15 years ago and which have remained solidly Democratic in presidential races ever since. Which of these states will vote Republican again in your lifetime, if any?

All 4 of them in my life time



In the next 20 years either NV or CO

If you deny any of these will vote Republican in your lifetime, especially if you're under 50, You're delusional. CO and NM could be safe Democratic within 15 years, NV and VA likely Democratic. But at some point, All 4 will vote Republican again. Why not any of them vote Republican in 2020 in fact?

I think NM and maybe NV are pretty good bets, but I’m much more unsure about CO. I definitely don’t see VA voting Republican again in my lifetime, though (even MD and WV probably flip before VA).

"Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania won't go Republican again" is all I have to say to this. Do I think New Mexico will go red any time in the next 10-15 years? Probably not, but coalitions can change. If the GOP comes back with Hispanic voters, could happen

I have no idea how the current coalitions will change in the more distant future, but I don’t see any of them flipping until there is some kind of realignment.

NV could plausibly flip in 2020.  The other 3 will take at least a 1988 level Republican victory in the PV. 

How could MD flip before VA? Wouldn't MD flipping mean Democrats collapsed in the greater DC area?

Now this is just plain stupid.

Yes, and I will still scientifically be able to sire children when it happens.

Only if Kanye West, Kasich or Rubio runs, beyond 2028, who knows

All

They are all D but not THAT D. A the next "Reagan" will win at least two of them. The last chance fo Nevada is probably next year for a while, though.

Yes all 4(don't have terminal illness)

No, probably not.

Nevada is the only one that is possible in the near future, and I can only see that happening in a relatively good Republican year (like if the GOP won the popular vote).

Yes, and is probably tilt D right now

Virginia could vote Republican again, but Republicans will have to improve in the suburbs, and stay economically right-wing while evolving on social issues, like a neoliberal European party. If the candidate is popular and charismatic enough. They'll win Virginia back.

Nevada could happen in 2020, but I think the state is trending hard left in the future. 2020, 2024 and 2028 might be the last opportunities to flip it. But the state is heavily unionized and prepared to vote for an even more leftist candidate if the Democrats swing left, and go with Warren type candidates. It's a hard state to predict it's future, but I think it will stay a Lean / Likely D state for a long time.

Colorado and New Mexico which i didn't vote for, could very well happen as well. I think in the future Colorado is going to be harder to flip, as there is a lot of improvement for Republicans to win the conservative-leaning Hispanic population back. Although Democratic Hispanics are generally quite left-wing. Colorado also has a lot of young people coming in, and will keep trending leftwards. Young people and a decent sized population of left-wing Hispanics is going to make it keep voting left, even if some Hispanics trend rightwards, who dislike the current direction of the Democratic Party and if the GOP becomes more open for minorities, which will happen if they evolve in an European neoliberal party. But Colorado will stay a state that attract libs and young people, and will probably become a Safe D state, barring a major re-alignment which i don't see likely to happen. Same does apply for New Mexico but I think that state is trending less leftwards, and will vote Democratic for the majority of the time.

I think states like Rhode Island, Connecticut, even Vermont are all likelier to vote GOP in one of the elections in the far distant future than Colorado and New Mexico, although New Mexico COULD happen if the GOP improves a lot with Hispanics.

All, unless the Republican Party should go into oblivion

I think most of them will, probably VA/CO/NV at least.  The reason being that the Republican Party in its current form is not sustainable.  Trading enormously populated suburbs for 80% margins in rural areas is not a credible long term strategy.  So after they lose several elections in a national scale in the 2020's they will have to readjust (i.e., push evangelicals to the side) and become a national party again that is capable of winning states like Virginia and Colorado, which seem like good candidates to flip back in the next realignment.

In 2064 I'll be 87, so that's most likely the last election I'll see. So, 12 more cycles for me. In the previous 12, every state except DC has gone Republican, but the following states have never gone Democratic:

ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, ID, WY, UT, AK

These are states that, these days, are typically 20 to 50 points to the right of the nation. The following states are the Democratic counterparts, and virtually guaranteed not to flip without a major realignment:

DC, HI, VT, MA, CA, MD, NY

Do any of VA/CO/NM/NV look like they will enter that tier? No.

Here are states that almost certainly will never flip, but could in a major GOP landslide:

IL, CT, RI, NJ, DE, WA

Virginia is moving into this tier by 2024 if not in 2020. I don't expect to see it flip back in my lifetime.

I think New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado are entering a tier that includes Oregon and... Oregon. States that could flip for the right GOP candidate in the right kind of year. I think they will go R again at least once in my lifetime.

The GOP would never be obsolute, due to a growing 22T dollar deficit, and the need for checks and balances. That's why GOP may hold onto Senate if Trump is defeated.

Nevada might; the rest are too urban, educated, or minority-majority.

There's a contingency of working class Hispanic or business-owning, non college-educated Hispanic which is much more sympathetic to the GOP than people realize. If there's a way the culture wars can be shifted from being race-based to being more effectively education/"cosmopolitan" then NM and maybe NV could be put back into play.

CO and VA have way too many college educated voters to be competitive in a situation like this.

In the short to medium term, Republicans are going to face some serious problems among Hispanics. In the long term Democrats are going to be in  trouble long term  if Hispanics assimilate  like the Italians,  Irish, and other ethnic whites.