Talk Elections

Trump - 50%
Sanders - 50%

Trump - 51%
Biden - 49%

Trump - 51%
Warren - 49%

Conducted 10/31-11/2, 1089 RV, +/- 2.9%
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/nevada-2020-biden-extends-lead-warren-jumps-to-second

I see the s****y Nevada polls have come early.

Likely D, but looks like we’re gonna have to go through this for the tenth time.

Up next:

KY-Emerson: Trump tied to -4

Ah good ol nevada polling...  :]

()

For reference:

Back in 2016 the final RCP polling average for NV was Trump +0.8, yet the actual result was -2.4, which amounts to a 3.2-point underperformance of the polls. This means we shouldn't be betting on Trump winning NV just yet.

This likely = a small Dem lead given well known Nevada polling problems, but emphasis on small.  Nevada should continue to be a Trump > Generic R state.  I fully expect it to be within 5 again and give Trump about 1 in 3 odds of winning.

So Trump is down 5-8 nationally but tied or ahead in NV? I agree that he has a fairly high floor in NV, but there’s really no way he’s doing this well in the state. Don’t be fooled by NV polling again.

I think the state will track closely to the popular vote, but given that the popular vote is pretty much Safe D...

I am going to guess that they don't poll in Spanish, which means this poll is trash.

Emerson + Nevada is two strikes right off the bat.

I think he's actually only down 3ish nationally.  See the other thread here I recently posted in.

Nope. I'm not buying it.

You would think that eventually pollsters would figure out what they are doing wrong here and rectify it. Whether it's under sampling of Spanish-speaking voters or union members (heavy overlap there), they have consistent missed in the same direction. Trump isn't +2 in NV, and something tells me his polling average will nonetheless be +2 in NV in the month leading up to the election.

Sen. Heller who won by 7 points really likes this poll.

How strong do you all think the Reid machine will be this time through? I heard he was sick, but i'm not sure if he is, or if that'll affect anything.

Isn't Emerson's big problem in Nevada that they don't poll in Spanish?

Between this and the Michigan poll, can we really say that the pollsters have learned their lessons from 2016? At this point, it's predictable the kind of polling bias that will continue (and this is not just limited to Emerson).

Memerson and NV polling history is a very bad combination.

Emerson can't poll in any language.

not at all

let me show you

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton-5891.html
Emerson*   11/4 - 11/5   600 LV   3.9   trump 46%   clinton 47%   Clinton +1

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html
Emerson   11/1 - 11/4   1197 LV   3.0   rosen 49   heller 45   Rosen +4

hey emerson's final was

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html
Emerson   11/1 - 11/4   1197 LV   3.0   rosen 49   heller 45   Rosen +4

Likely D.

This poll is wrong, Dems will win NV

Nope

A Nevada poll that does not reach cell phones and does not reach the large Hispanic electorate will get results unduly favorable to Republicans. Many people decide to vote late, and those tend to go D.

Outside Greater Las Vegas, Nevada is very strong R... think of Greater Chicago in Illinois or the large cities to the south and east of Interstate 69 in Michigan. Ranch and mining interests in Nevada are really-strong R. But we know where the population is. Only if Democrats barely win Clark County is Nevada a swing state.

Landline phones are a dying technology because it requires a high-cost investment and maintenance.     

Why would Democrats underpoll in NV in every election for the last decade, then suddenly stop even without the polling methodology fixed?

It seems that Nevada could be pure tossup this time around after all.

Didnt Laxalt lead in NV polling and lost the election? Yes he did and so did Heck and Heller

Nope

Having followed every election in Nevada since 2004, I can tell you that Democrats ALWAYS outrun their polls for a few reasons:

1) Many firms (especially lower-cost ones) don't poll in Spanish or poll landlines only
2) A lot of people in NV work odd hours because they work in casinos or some form of entertainment
3) The Reid Machine: possibly the one machine/GOTV operation that actually lives up to the hype, Dems have nothing else like it anywhere in the country :(

As a side note on item 2): one of the coolest people I've ever met was this woman in her sixties who had worked as a blackjack dealer for over thirty years.  She was exactly what you'd imagine: short hair, gravel-ey smoker's voice, didn't take sh*t from anybody. 

Anyway back on topic.  Yeah, I'd have to agree with most of the other posters here that NV isn't likely to be in serious play for the GOP in 2020.  Could it swing to Trump? Sure.  But it definitely wouldn't be the tipping point state; if the Dems are losing NV, they're getting blown out nationwide. 

Atlas (with the exception of the biggest R hacks) is learning, I'm so proud! :) Anyway, as others have said, pure junk, Senators Angle, Heck, and Heller, as well as Governor Laxalt will surely give Trump high-fives when he wins Nevada.