Talk Elections

1% win landslides. One in a year when they won by less than they should have and won in an unexpected upset.
Go.

You think Scott would get the nom over DeSantis, another Florida 1%er?

Its got to be a landslider, desantis has done it once, Scott has done it 3 times and Beshear has done it twice.

Beshear would beat Voldemort handily, but Scott would win Kentucky by over 15.

[Citation needed]

Whatever you think about Rick Scott, he is no Matt Bevin. He was a pretty good governor and was popular unlike Matt Bevin

In a scenario where Mr. Trump is reelected? Beshear would win, but I'm not sure how he could win the primary? Maybe if Trump defeated a progressive like Warren or Sanders in 2020, and Behear runs on the elactability angle with a moderate liberal platform.
 
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✓ Governor Andy Beshear (D-KY)/Representative Veronica Escobar (D-TX): ~ 370 EVs.; 53.5%
Senator Rick Scott (R-FL)/Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO): ~ 170 EVs.; 45.1%

Logically it should be Beshear, who outran Hillary by 30%, while Scott underperformed Trump by 1%.

Scott would lose. Sure, he was a fantastic Governor, but nobody outside of Florida will care because he’s boring as all hell and is a Medicare fraudster. DeSantis would beat Beshear, not necessarily easily, but he’d have the upper hand. Scott would be on the defensive from day one.

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306-232 under 2024 estimates.

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Kentucky and Florida are too close to call.

After 8 years of Trump
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Beshear going to be unemployed in 2024.

Even if you're a popular Democratic Governor of a deep red state (or the other way around), you'll still struggle heavily to overcome the partisan trend in presidential elections. I just can't see Dave Freudenthal winning Wyoming, Brad Henry winning Oklahoma, Charlie Baker winning Massachusetts or Phil Scott winning Vermont. And the same goes for congressional races, just ask Ben Nelson, a guy who was reelected as Governor of Nebraska with over 70% of the vote in such a Republican year as 1994. Two years later he ran for the Senate and lost by a wide margin. Sure, he was then elected four years later to other seat, but it was narrow and Nebraska was still more open to electing Democrats.

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