Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => Past Election What-ifs (US) => Topic started by: coolface1572 on November 07, 2019, 08:19:48 PM



Title: 2010 Arkansas senate: Bill Halter vs John Boozman
Post by: coolface1572 on November 07, 2019, 08:19:48 PM
Bill Halter almost beat Blanche Lincoln in the Arkansas democratic primary runoff. Lincoln then went on to lost to John Boozman by a landslide. How would Halter have done against Boozman?

Also, how would Lincoln or Halter have done against Jim Holt, who finished second in the first round for the republicans? If Boozman had just fallen slightly below the threshold it would have forced a runoff between him and Holt.


Title: Re: 2010 Arkansas senate: Bill Halter vs John Boozman
Post by: TML on November 08, 2019, 12:18:22 AM
The margin would probably have been narrower, but I suspect Halter might have suffered the same fate as Joe Sestak that year.


Title: Re: 2010 Arkansas senate: Bill Halter vs John Boozman
Post by: Adam Griffin on November 08, 2019, 12:26:09 AM
Probably something like 54-44 at best. Even though Halter probably would have better consolidated a splintering left and kept more long-term Democrats from defecting, this would have still been one of the many examples throughout the South of an office shifting substantially to the GOP after the last Democratic incumbent to be elected during "the good ol' days" either lost or decided not to seek re-election.