Talk Elections

How would Trump have done against Obama in 2012?
How much of an influence would the Birther movement had?

I think that Obama wins by a similar electoral college margin against Trump in this scenario as in real life with probably North Carolina staying in his column. I think the real difference is Obama running up his margins in blue states. Trump's birther rhetoric would contribute to an even greater African American vote and an even more lopsided Hispanic margin.
Obama 347 52.0%
Trump. 191 45.2%

Fairly close race, Trump wins FL, OH and IA but loses 279-259.

I wish he ran in 2012, because he would have gone down in flames.

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✓ President Barack Obama (D-IL)/Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE): 347 EVs.; 51.8%
Mr. Donald Trump (R-NY)/Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA): 191 EVs.; 46.4%

The time really wouldn't have been right for Trump in 2012. Anger at immigration hadn't boiled over, ISIS wasn't on anybody's radar, & the general feeling was that things weren't good but they weren't getting worse. That had changed for many of the people who mattered (& propelled Trump to victory) in 2016. Had he ran on the same populist platform, he would've lost the general by a significant margin.

And the birtherism thing was also something that most people, regardless of their views, thought was ridiculous & wouldn't get behind. Birtherism had a peak, in mid-2009, as the Tea Party rallies got a bit out of hand, but afterwards, it was widely discredited & even the most populist voices on the right (like Limbaugh & Hannity) were calling it out as dumb.

Obama wins

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