Talk Elections

Quinnipiac poll of NH, conducted Nov. 6-10:

https://poll.qu.edu/new-hampshire/release-detail?ReleaseID=3648

Biden 20%
Warren 16%
Buttigieg 15%
Sanders 14%
Gabbard 6%
Yang 4%
Klobuchar 3%
Steyer 3%
Harris 1%
Booker 1%
Castro 1%
Bennet 1%
Delaney, Williamson, Messam, Bullock, Sestak 0%

<3 MAYOR PETE! <3

Is Tulsi now qualified for the December debate?

It seems that whoever wins IA will likely take NH with how close it is.

Is Pete really going to win Iowa and then storm his way to the nomination? Holy smokes.

Didnt QU had Warren ahead in its natl poll, now this, Biden is still the frontrunner

very liberal:
Warren 35%
Sanders 22%
Buttigieg 11%
Biden 9%

somewhat liberal:
Biden 21%
Buttigieg 21%
Sanders 21%
Warren 21%

moderate or conservative:
Biden 24%
Buttigieg 15%
Warren 10%
Gabbard 9%
Sanders 8%

men:
Biden 19%
Sanders 19%
Buttigieg 13%
Warren 11%
Gabbard 9%
Yang 8%

women:
Biden 21%
Warren 20%
Buttigieg 17%
Sanders 11%
Gabbard 4%
Klobuchar 4%

city:
Biden 21%
Sanders 16%
Warren 16%
Buttigieg 14%

suburb:
Biden 20%
Warren 16%
Buttigieg 14%
Warren 14%

rural:
Biden 20%
Buttigieg 17%
Warren 16%
Sanders 14%

Perfectly balanced...as all things should be.

I got excited about Uncle Joe's lead, until I saw it's Qunnipiac and Tulsi at 6%....

Needs one more poll and a few thousand more donors (I believe 5-7k)

Buttigieg will have problems once he gets to SC, he hasnt explained anything to AA or Latinos about his criminal justice record in IN. He only talks about gun control. Beto was more of an asset, but he was gaffe prone

With his lack of support among minorities, Pete has zero chance of winning the nomination.  Sorry, but that's reality.

Biden benefits from a fractured field in IA and NH and he's going to run the table down south, it's his nomination to lose if these polls are accurate

He was in 4th in the most recent IA poll. Really, all the candidates benefit from the fractured field but none of them have been able to capitalize on it.

Biden is bouncing back in NH. To be confirmed in other polls.

This is bad news for Warren, she needs NH

It'll be a 2016 redux. 

Impressive numbers for Tulsi, and really bad for Harris.

They went through the trouble of asking for Bloomberg, why didn't they poll him for the horse race numbers?

They were pretty much all in a statistical tie in that last IA poll.

Unless the black and brown vote is hideously split and he consolidates the white vote, no. 

To be fair it's just one poll and one can also say we need more polls to confirm he's bouncing back here.

Tulsi and Yang looking ok, Harris at 0: NH continues to be a massive FF state.

Biden will win the primary and lose the general election.

Yeah sorry, not buying that Gabbard has 6% and Yang has 4% and Harris has 1.

Bad poll for Warren and Sanders. Good poll for Joe Biden who wins whether he does it himself or if Buttigieg comes through for him.

Impressive numbers for Gabbard and Yang but they have no path to victory and their inflated percentages are probably hurting Bernie.

For Gabbard, look at the Nate Silver tweet I posted above.  Her support is coming almost entirely from moderate/conservative independents (not Democrats).

New Poll: New Hampshire President by Quinnipiac University on 2019-11-10 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3320191110015)

Summary:

Biden:	20%
Warren:	16%
Buttigieg:	15%
Sanders:	14%
Gabbard:	6%
Other:	15%
Undecided:	14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://poll.qu.edu/new-hampshire/release-detail?ReleaseID=3648)

Mayor Pete has been a big surprise recently.
I have a feeling that if Biden wins the nomination, he will highly consider Pete for the ticket.

No, he wont this is a change election and 2008 scenario. Trump is gaffe prone as Sarah Palin. Dems can take 5-8 Senate seats, 70 polls tell the story with Trump 😎

A Biden vs Buttigieg race is the only circumstance in which I would support Biden. At least Biden pretends to support a public option. Buttigieg has no plan in which healthcare is free, only "affordable".

That poll in IA showed a 4-way race as does essentialy this poll. But Biden has the advantage not being in a 4-way race in SC and other southern and midwestern states looks good for him. I don't think he will win NH but if this poll is somewhere close to the truth it's a great news for him.

Great poll for Tulsi. I think she could get 5th for sure in New Hampshire and around 10-12% maybe even 4th.

I'm supposed to believe he's at 21 nationally (according to Quinnipiac) but at 20 and leading in New Hampshire?

Mind-Made up - Biden 43%, Sanders 57%, Warren 29%, Pete 24%

Counting only mind made up -

Biden  8.6% Sanders 7.98 Warren 4.64% Pete 3.6%

Only 38% have made up their minds most of which are Sanders & then Biden supporters. Look @ how brittle Warren's & Pete's numbers are.

Has everyone forgotten that New Hampshire seems to basically ignore whoever wins Iowa? The last time the same candidate won both in a contested primary on either side is 2004.

On the other hand, 2020 seems to be quite analogous to 2004.

Also there have only been 5 contested primaries since 2004 so it's not that crazy that it wouldn't have happened. Also Romney and Bernie both came extremely close to winning Iowa in years when they won New Hampshire so it really wouldn't be that crazy.

So? That shows she has bipartisan support. She should def get VP consideration if she doesn't win the nomination.

Tulsi at 6%?! Holy cow. Pete may well have a shot here, too. I think Warren may overtake Biden in the end.

In fact, sometimes, NH seems to consciously go against whatever IA did (see the 2008 Dem primary).

Biden is old, Buttigieg has youth on his side

I can't see any way in which it was. 2004 was defined by the Howard Dean collapse, he was leading wide at this point. Now we have a close race.

What happened to Warren? Her polls dropped. So, has Sanders. I guess new flavor of month is Buttigieg

This illustrates an important point.  The race is fluid, and flavors of the month often don't last.  Remember when Warren was inevitable?  She could still win, but clearly her momentum has stalled.  Remember when Harris was the flavor of the month?  Now she's barely hanging on.  Harry Enten had a couple of good tweets on this recently:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1193986534753611777

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1194332779917533186

In short: don't think you know what's going to happen based on short-term trends.