Talk Elections

Biden 51
Trump 43

Sanders 48
Trump 44

Warren 47
Trump 44

Buttigieg 46
Trump 43

Harris 45
Trump 44

https://ajc-isabetai.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/poll-nov-2019-crosstabs.pdf

I'm going to choose to....not believe this

Their sample has HRC winning GA in the "2016 vote" section, so they're probably over a bit for the Ds

Just for fun, I went back and looked at U[sic]GA*'s polling record.

2016: No polling. (Final result: Trump+5)

2018: Tie, Kemp+2, Tie (Final result: Kemp+1.3)

538 says that UGA has a R+0.4 bias and a B/C rating, but with only two races analyzed.

I'm just glad we're getting Georgia polls. That said, even if this sample is a tad D-leaning, it does point to Georgia being quite competitive in 2020; none of this "Likely/Safe R" business.

* Sorry, I'm a GT alum, so I had to.

Poll has trump approval at 44-54, seems like it’s off the mark. Reminds me of all the pre 2018 election polls that had trump approval in the mid 40’s and then Election Day came and trump approval was 51% in Florida, 52% in Georgia and 53% in Ohio, all the polls massively underestimated trump approval in a bunch of states. Seems like polls have same issue today.

This is almost certainly too D-friendly, but it doesn’t change the fact that this state is a ticking time bomb for the GOP and Republican overconfidence about GA is just as unwarranted as Democratic overconfidence about PA in 2016. It’ll be "too inelastic" until it’s not.

A wave can indeed happen, the GOP Senate is toast

61% college grads? That seems a tad too high.

Too D-friendly, but shows that GA can be quite competitive.

To be fair, Georgia is "inelastic." But the people who are showing up at the polls are different from who they were years ago. Of course there were substantial swings in suburban Atlanta in 2016, you don't get the results in GA06 and GA07 without persuasion, but as a whole the state is moving to the Left for the same reason why Virginia did a decade earlier. The suburban swing voters coming over is bolstered by the fact that every day more people of color (as well as young educated white liberals) move to metro Atlanta and some white oldster kicks it.

Given how rapidly things have been changing in GA, the state may yet surprise next year. While UGA polls do not have a long track record, what they have done recently, as you point out, was actually almost spot on so... fingers crossed.

61% ??????? lol

Even in SF college educated folks are only 55% of the population. It’s just insane

2016 was 51% per exit polls.

GA is a toss-up. If Abrams had presidential turnout from voters under 45 she would have won with no run-off.

The Pres nominee doesn't even need to clear 50, just beat Trump. I expect a lot of revisionist history from the Likely/Safe R GA crew on Election Night.

This poll is 38% non-college/61% college (2018 exit polls in GA were 67% non-college/33% college).

61% college grads is a bit too much, especially for a Southern state, but these polls seem credible.  If even Buttigieg is ahead in the South, Trump is in trouble.

Apparently the 2018 election results have been forgotten by many people. All of those races being decided by single digits was a sneak preview of what is coming.

Trump should be leadding by now, if according to SN, that he will make a comeback in states like GA. The fact, that he still trails, in GA, is trouble. If the economy is so good, like SN says it is.

on the one hand, the 61% college educated figure is crazy and wrong.

on the other hand, if you believe catalist's data from 2018, which i think is based on the actual voter file, kemp won non-college voters by 2% and abrams won college voters by 1%, so barely a difference (there's a lot of non-white non-college folks in georgia and they dislike trump/republicans *even more* than their white counterparts dislike democrats). so i'm not sure that the education weighting concerns are as salient here as they would be somewhere like michigan or wisconsin? also this same poll was only off by 1 point in the 2018 governor's race-- i'm not sure what their longer term track record is though.

I want to believe... obviously an outlier, but Georgia will be competitive, especially with Joe Biden.

Depends on how they're counting. In 2016, exit polls showed 50% with a bachelor's or higher, but 2018 was only 33%. Those same exit polls showed a 12-point education gap in 2016 and a 23-point one in 2018. There's definitely a possibility that both the shares and support levels of educated/non-educated are incorrect - especially since prior to 2016, GA's education gap was smaller (and even just a few years ago, reversed; Dems did better with non-college educated than college educated).

The poll number is definitely off (assuming they're not including associate degrees, some college, etc), but - assuming 2018 education gap (23 points) is more reflective of 2020 & the 2016 % of college graduates (50%) is more reflective than 2018 - the difference would be around 5 points.  

So Biden +3, Sanders -1, Warren/Buttigieg -2, Harris -4, etc.

()

This is an outlier bc it over samples college grads. This is more like the margin we’ll see in ten years.

Definitely too D-friendly, but people who think GA isn't at least competitive (not more than Lean R) are sticking their heads in the sand.

The exit polls oversampled educated voters in 2016, they admitted that and rebalanced things for 2018.
 

The real figures for 2020 likely will be closer to 2016 exit poll figures than 2018 figures. First, there's a pretty solid track record of college graduates making up more than 40-45% of the electorate in a presidential year that goes back well beyond 2016 (irrespective of past debates over whether "working class" people were undersampled). Also, there are age discrepancies at work that naturally reduce the percentage of midterm voters who are college grads.

Do you have a source for this? Not calling you a liar but in the past whenever the exit polls have oversampled/undersampled someone, they've always retroactively reweighted the published results of the exit poll itself to correct their mistake. It would be very unusual if they did not do so in this situation as well.

Both the Center for American Progress and Pew in their post-election analysis found a much lower percentage of the electorate being college-educated than indicated in the 2016 Exit Polls.

CAP
 (https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/reports/2017/11/01/441926/voter-trends-in-2016/)
Pew (https://www.people-press.org/2018/08/09/an-examination-of-the-2016-electorate-based-on-validated-voters/)

Specifically looking at Non-College White's share of the electorate nationally by the different measures.

45% - Center for American Progress

44% - Pew

34% - 2016 Exit

Color me skeptical that midterm turnout differentials benefit non-college educated voters. I recall 538 finding that the opposite is in fact true.

()

It seems this trend held true in 2018, as at least per the Fox / University of Chicago Exits had 42% of the electorate being college-educated. Given past trends, it seems likely 2020's electorate will be slightly less college-educated than 2018's. 

Admittedly there is a lot of conflicting data surrounding the education of voters at-large, but the chart above would suggest that there's a relatively small difference between the educational attainment of voters and non-voters, which contradicts a lot of other observations made via exit polls, polling and surveys in general.

The crazy thing is that this poll is giving Perdue a 49/31 approval rate. How can he be so popular in a such D friendly poll ?

These polls are great for Dems, we can win alot of the states we picked off in 2008-12:wave yrs

Midterm electorates are always more educated because less educated voters tend to stay home in midterms. In 2018 for example this was how turnout varied by education according to the Census Bureau.

High School Graduate: 42.1%
Some College: 54.7%
Bachelor Degree: 65.7%
Advanced Degree: 74%

In a presidential year, the rate won't rise much for bachelor's or advanced because it is already so high, they will rise for less educated voters. In 2018 college voters made up 43% of all voters, that figure will be lower in 2020. 

From 2016 -2018, according to the US Census Bureau, turnout fell by 18% among high school graduates in relative terms from 51.5% to 41.2%, 14% among voters with some college, 11.5% among voters with a Bachelor's degree and 7.9% among voters with an Advanced Degree.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-583.html

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-580.html

I think there are tons of suburbanites, particularly women, in Georgia who aren't all that ideological (but at least tend to be moving meaningfully to the left of the modern Republican party on cultural issues) and are fine with a "generic" Republican who doesn't make too many waves (at least that they are aware of) but absolutely hate Trump and his perceived boorishness/stupidity and will almost certainly vote against him or stay home in 2020. The gap between the presidential horserace and Purdue's approval probably isn't quite this wide in reality, but as someone who grew up in the Atlanta suburbs it's not crazy to me that there'd be a big one.

It’s probably just bc Perdue mostly keeps his head down. Other than the lying about the sh**thole comment, he pretty much stays in the background. If you keep up with politics, you know how he is but the average Jane/Joe doesn’t. A lot of it will come out during the election but for now he’s good

Georgia is a powder keg.

Texas is a thermonuclear bomb.

I would say AZ is the powder keg, GA is the land mine

Which is why I am saying it will be good for the GOP in the long run to lose in 2020. Begin the rebuilding process right now rather than wait till that bomb goes off cause once that bomb goes off well rebuilding will take some time and they will face a similar period in the wilderness as the Democrats did in the 1980s .

Not necessarily: There are factors other than educational attainment at play, in particular age. Educational attainment is much higher among younger people (say, ages 26-35, done with college and maybe grad school but still young) than among older people (65+), but voter turnout among older people is much higher than younger people. Controlling for age, educational attainment is a huge factor in turnout. But, when not controlling for age, that's not the case, as a highly educated young person is less likely to vote than a low-education older person. Age explains why polls show the more educated a person is, the more likely they, holding their other characteristics constant, are to vote, yet more educated people and less educated people vote at about the same rate overall.

To some degree, race (and national origin), sex and income play into the equation as well, but age is the overwhelming other factor.

Even if oversampling Democrats, an 8 point Biden lead leaves plenty of room for margin of error. This state would legitimately he competitive with him as the nominee.