Talk Elections

47% Biden, 40% Trump
44% Warren, 41% Trump
47% Sanders, 40% Trump
41% Buttigieg, 41% Trump

Trump approval: 45/52 (-7)

https://www.scribd.com/document/435041220/Fox-News-Poll-Joe-Biden-November-10-13-2019

Why did Fox News only poll Clinton/Rosen/Sisolak voters in Las Vegas?

Pretends to be shocked.

weird that bernie does so well there

Casino workers in Greater Las Vegas?

These numbers aren't too out of the ordinary.

Bernie is wining people under 45 by 28 points.

It's FOX, the poll was probably only done in Spanish.

Nevada is clearly Tilt R, though.

Tell that to Senator Joe Heck and Governor Adam Laxalt.

Another poll where the Trump # is within 1 point across the board and the two Democrats with more name recognition have higher toplines than the first time candidates.

It's almost like the Democrats shouldn't overthink the electability game.

Don't knows against Trump:
Biden 4
Bernie 4
Warren 5
Pete 6

Not a lot more room for the latter two when they are 4 and 7 points worse with their margin.

The real don't knows aren't listed the poll because they were pushed. Those are only the people who insisted they don't know to the end. This is one of many polls that show a correlation between topline  and name recognition, with almost no variance in the Trump number.

Waiting for a Tweet the numbers are fake. Obviously NV is lean/likely D and this Fox poll is more accurate than previous ones we've seen so far.

How is tied with Buttigieg and within the MOE with Warren losing bigly?

NV has an all female state delegation with state assembly and for Congress; as a result,  it's a D state now

Hmm, Sanders does well because the state is heavily unionized, so does Warren. I think NV will vote Democratic and by a margin of 5 probably, unless Buttigieg or Harris are the nominees.

unironically yes

Why do you choose to die on this pathetic hill?


Regardless, Likely D.

NV won't be in play for Trump.

Nevada polls overestimate Republicans.

The #s still aren't bad for Trump esp since there is not a nominee yet and no binary  choice.

His point is that Nevada is trending red. It was D+5 in 2008, D+3 in 2012, and D+0 in 2016. The senate and governor elections in 2018 were around R+4. Nevada is one of several states that trended blue between 2000 and 2008 and is trending back to red. Trump had 48% approval in the 2018 exit poll, which is a very good sign for Trump's chances in Nevada.

The polls in Nevada do generally overestimate Republicans, however, it is well established that Fox News polls drastically oversample Democrats and undersample Independents. Based on the sampling, this shows Trump narrowly winning Nevada.

I was being sarcastic.

And no, these polls don't show that Trump is winning Nevada no matter how much you try to unskew them.

Actuallyyyy it's safe R  ::)

Because those 2 are by far the least likely to get nominated?

Buttigieg maybe, but Warren? She’s definitely more likely than Sanders and arguably close to as likely as Biden.

Why would Trump be getting 4-5 pts fewer votes than his approvals?

It seems unlikely, but this poll does have high undecideds.