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Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => U.S. Presidential Election Results => Topic started by: President Johnson on November 15, 2019, 02:07:45 pm



Title: Nixon 1972 vs. Reagan 1984 by state
Post by: President Johnson on November 15, 2019, 02:07:45 pm
I had some time left during lunchbreak today, so I compared vote shares of Nixon in 1972 and Reagan 1984 by state. This map shows who received a higher share of votes in each state:
 
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Red = Nixon in 1972 received a higher voter share than Reagan in 1984
Blue = Reagan in 1984 received a higher voter share than Nixon in 1972
 

In both 1972 and 1984 electoral votes, Tricky Dick wins comfortably. However, he won two percent more than Reagan in the national popular vote (60.7% vs. 58.8%).

Nebraska was extremely close, seperating both results by just 0.05% as Reagan received 70.55% and Nixon 70.50%.
 
Nixon's margins in the South were just insane. He cracked 70% in some of them. In Georgia, he won 75% of the vote and every county, but four years later Jimmy Carter won 66% of the vote and also every county. Reagan received 60% in 1984, while losing the state in 1980.


Title: Re: Nixon 1972 vs. Reagan 1984 by state
Post by: Calthrina950 on November 15, 2019, 02:46:02 pm
I had some time left during lunchbreak today, so I compared vote shares of Nixon in 1972 and Reagan 1984 by state. This map shows who received a higher share of votes in each state:
 
()

Red = Nixon in 1972 received a higher voter share than Reagan in 1984
Blue = Reagan in 1984 received a higher voter share than Nixon in 1972
 

In both 1972 and 1984 electoral votes, Tricky Dick wins comfortably. However, he won two percent more than Reagan in the national popular vote (60.7% vs. 58.8%).

Nebraska was extremely close, seperating both results by just 0.05% as Reagan received 70.55% and Nixon 70.50%.
 
Nixon's margins in the South were just insane. He cracked 70% in some of them. In Georgia, he won 75% of the vote and every county, but four years later Jimmy Carter won 66% of the vote and also every county. Reagan received 60% in 1984, while losing the state in 1980.

Interesting map. Massachusetts of course stands out, being the only state that Nixon lost, but so do Connecticut and New Hampshire. And I'm certainly aware of Nixon's stronger performance in the South. Nixon received 18% of the black vote in 1972, compared to Reagan's 9% in 1984; he won many Black Belt counties that Reagan did not. Nixon also received a higher share of the nationwide white vote (68%) as compared to Reagan (66%). He must have gotten well over 70% of whites in the South, given the state by state results, and probably got close to 90% of the white vote in Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi, and Alabama.

Not surprised by Reagan's overperformance in the West either, a region where he did very well in both 1980 and 1984. McGovern only got in the twenties in Idaho and Utah, like Mondale, but Nixon was held back from the 70% mark in those states because of Schmitz (they were among his best states). Alaska is another example of this. Reagan got 66%, but Nixon "only" 58%, as Schmitz drew more than 7% of the vote, whereas Bergland got only around 3% there in 1984.


Title: Re: Nixon 1972 vs. Reagan 1984 by state
Post by: morgankingsley on November 15, 2019, 09:42:59 pm
Also as I mentioned once before, in Mississippi Nixon got a larger margin than McGovern got in DC


Title: Re: Nixon 1972 vs. Reagan 1984 by state
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 15, 2019, 10:44:05 pm
Trend map version (ie controlling for the national margin, and with shades):



Title: Re: Nixon 1972 vs. Reagan 1984 by state
Post by: MIKESOWELL on November 16, 2019, 12:21:51 am
It can be even argued that McGovern slightly over performed on election day, especially popular vote wise. I think in some polls Nixon was beating McGovern by nearly 30 points. In comparison, Mondale underperformed on election day. Reagan was consistently well ahead, but usually by 10-15 points with some polls having it around an 18 point lead, which was right on the money. I remember the pundits saying that Reagan did a little better than expected on election day, especially coming so close to a 50 state sweep.


Title: Re: Nixon 1972 vs. Reagan 1984 by state
Post by: bagelman on November 16, 2019, 12:06:59 pm
In the South civil rights was still a current issue and black voter registration was still poor.


Title: Re: Nixon 1972 vs. Reagan 1984 by state
Post by: Fuzzy Stands With The Rocky Jones Family on November 16, 2019, 01:24:54 pm
In the South civil rights was still a current issue and black voter registration was still poor.

That. and the Southern states had a disproportionate number of military installations.  McGovern was seen as someone who'd cut military spending, and the jobs and income that were generated from that.  There are any number of small cities in the South whose economies are dependent on military installations, and that was even more true in 1972 than today.

The Great Plains, Mountain West, and Far West had few racial minorities, and were not motivated to vote Nixon on that basis.  Additionally, the Western states had a longstanding streak of isolationism and opposition to foreign wars.  The support for the Vietnam War in members of Congress of BOTH parties was much, much higher in the South and Border States than it was in the Mountain West and Great Plains states. These areas became far more Republican after Carter, due to policies regarding Federal Lands. 


Title: Re: Nixon 1972 vs. Reagan 1984 by state
Post by: President Johnson on November 16, 2019, 02:48:59 pm
In the South civil rights was still a current issue and black voter registration was still poor.

Agreed, though it's pretty ironic that Nixon's administration actually implemented desegregation policies begin under the Johnson presidency. Nixon also supported civil rights longer than a number of others, as early has his tenure under Eisenhower. His Justice Department even sued the Trump Organization in 1973 for violating the Fair Housing Act.


Title: Re: Nixon 1972 vs. Reagan 1984 by state
Post by: mathstatman on November 17, 2019, 03:32:16 pm
Michigan is somewhat of an oddity, as Reagan improved over Nixon by 3 full points (59.2% vs. 56.2%); Reagan bested Nixon in Kent, Macomb, Oakland, Washtenaw, Ingham, Lapeer, St Clair, and Livingston Counties; Wayne and Genesee were the only major counties in which Reagan did worse than Nixon (which says a lot about population migration patterns in MI in the 1970s).

In WI, also colored blue, Reagan bested Nixon by less than 1%.


Title: Re: Nixon 1972 vs. Reagan 1984 by state
Post by: Calthrina950 on November 18, 2019, 11:41:49 pm
Michigan is somewhat of an oddity, as Reagan improved over Nixon by 3 full points (59.2% vs. 56.2%); Reagan bested Nixon in Kent, Macomb, Oakland, Washtenaw, Ingham, Lapeer, St Clair, and Livingston Counties; Wayne and Genesee were the only major counties in which Reagan did worse than Nixon (which says a lot about population migration patterns in MI in the 1970s).

In WI, also colored blue, Reagan bested Nixon by less than 1%.

Why did Reagan do better than Nixon in Michigan? Particularly given that he ran behind Nixon throughout most of the remaining Midwest and Appalachia.


Title: Re: Nixon 1972 vs. Reagan 1984 by state
Post by: Liberalrocks on November 19, 2019, 12:35:29 pm
It can be even argued that McGovern slightly over performed on election day, especially popular vote wise. I think in some polls Nixon was beating McGovern by nearly 30 points. In comparison, Mondale underperformed on election day. Reagan was consistently well ahead, but usually by 10-15 points with some polls having it around an 18 point lead, which was right on the money. I remember the pundits saying that Reagan did a little better than expected on election day, especially coming so close to a 50 state sweep.
  To the underperformance point: Was Mondale expected to win any states besides Minnesota? Iím sure pundits may have thought Massachusetts was going to McGovern?-


Title: Re: Nixon 1972 vs. Reagan 1984 by state
Post by: darklordoftech on November 19, 2019, 01:41:44 pm
The culture wars were more salient in 1972 while economic issues were more salient in 1984.


Title: Re: Nixon 1972 vs. Reagan 1984 by state
Post by: L.D. Smith on November 20, 2019, 07:02:19 pm
What's really interestingis  how much California was lukewarm for Nixon at each time after 1952.

I mean:

1956: Lost a lot of votes to Kefauver, especially in The Valley, Eisenhower performed worse here
1960: Outright lost Election Night and needed the Late Vote to save him.
1962: Lost Gubernatorial
1968: Plurality win, literally carried over by LA County.
1972: Significantly less of the vote, whole state moved leftward of the nation first time since FDR.


Title: Re: Nixon 1972 vs. Reagan 1984 by state
Post by: Old School Republican on November 20, 2019, 07:07:29 pm
What's really interestingis  how much California was lukewarm for Nixon at each time after 1952.

I mean:

1956: Lost a lot of votes to Kefauver, especially in The Valley, Eisenhower performed worse here
1960: Outright lost Election Night and needed the Late Vote to save him.
1962: Lost Gubernatorial
1968: Plurality win, literally carried over by LA County.
1972: Significantly less of the vote, whole state moved leftward of the nation first time since FDR.

CA voted to the left of the nation in 1956 as well


Title: Re: Nixon 1972 vs. Reagan 1984 by state
Post by: Old School Republican on November 20, 2019, 07:08:20 pm
Michigan is somewhat of an oddity, as Reagan improved over Nixon by 3 full points (59.2% vs. 56.2%); Reagan bested Nixon in Kent, Macomb, Oakland, Washtenaw, Ingham, Lapeer, St Clair, and Livingston Counties; Wayne and Genesee were the only major counties in which Reagan did worse than Nixon (which says a lot about population migration patterns in MI in the 1970s).

In WI, also colored blue, Reagan bested Nixon by less than 1%.

Why did Reagan do better than Nixon in Michigan? Particularly given that he ran behind Nixon throughout most of the remaining Midwest and Appalachia.

Reagan dominated the Suburbs like no other candidate really ever has


Title: Re: Nixon 1972 vs. Reagan 1984 by state
Post by: Calthrina950 on November 21, 2019, 01:53:23 am
What's really interestingis  how much California was lukewarm for Nixon at each time after 1952.

I mean:

1956: Lost a lot of votes to Kefauver, especially in The Valley, Eisenhower performed worse here
1960: Outright lost Election Night and needed the Late Vote to save him.
1962: Lost Gubernatorial
1968: Plurality win, literally carried over by LA County.
1972: Significantly less of the vote, whole state moved leftward of the nation first time since FDR.

Nixon got "only" 55% of the vote in California in 1972, beating McGovern by about 13%, as compared to his 23% margin of victory nationwide. California was one of McGovern's best states that year. California also voted marginally more Democratic than the national average in 1984, though Reagan did much better in the state than Nixon (beating Mondale by 17%). These were early indications of the state's eventual shift into Safe Democratic status.