Title: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Ebsy on November 18, 2019, 03:05:12 PM https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/sc/sc11182019_snzm94.pdf/
Likely Voters Biden: 33 Warren: 13 Sanders: 11 Buttigieg: 6 Steyer: 5 Yang: 4 Harris: 3 Booker: 2 Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: amdcpus on November 18, 2019, 03:09:35 PM I believe Steyer is now qualified for the December debate.
Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Gass3268 on November 18, 2019, 03:11:18 PM I believe Steyer is now qualified for the December debate. He just needs the 200k donors which I imagine he'll get. Also Yang is now only one poll away. Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Bakersfield Uber Alles on November 18, 2019, 03:30:22 PM Buttigieg is at 11% with white voters and 0% with black voters.
Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Tender Branson on November 18, 2019, 03:31:31 PM Buttigieg is at 11% with white voters and 0% with black voters. ::) Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Matty on November 18, 2019, 03:32:26 PM I understand the sentiment that you don’t want to give up after so much effort, but what the heck is Harris seeing on the ground and in these polls that makes her think she has a chance?
Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Rookie Yinzer on November 18, 2019, 03:39:13 PM I understand the sentiment that you don’t want to give up after so much effort, but what the heck is Harris seeing on the ground and in these polls that makes her think she has a chance? Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: LAKISYLVANIA on November 18, 2019, 03:41:37 PM I understand the sentiment that you don’t want to give up after so much effort, but what the heck is Harris seeing on the ground and in these polls that makes her think she has a chance? Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Skye on November 18, 2019, 03:42:51 PM Black voters might really be the nail in the coffin to the Buttigieg campaign even if he posts IA and NH wins. It's still an open question whether he can substantially improve with them or not, but these numbers certainly aren't encouraging.
Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Vosem on November 18, 2019, 03:47:19 PM I believe Steyer is now qualified for the December debate. No, he's actually quite far from the fundraising threshold. This poll does qualify Yang, though (and I think it's the strongest poll he's gotten out of SC, period). Gabbard is still one poll away and still needs to hit the fundraising threshold (though unlike Steyer she's close to it and probably won't struggle). Booker has no qualifying polls and is far from the threshold; I think he quits sometime around Thanksgiving. Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 18, 2019, 03:52:26 PM Black voters might really be the nail in the coffin to the Buttigieg campaign even if he posts IA and NH wins. It's still an open question whether he can substantially improve with them or not, but these numbers certainly aren't encouraging. The Dems compacted primaries so close together, that there wont be enough time for Warren, Buttigieg or Sanders to get a bounce after IA and NH. The primaries are 1 month apart. Jan 3rd would of goven Candidates more time Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Pollster on November 18, 2019, 04:09:20 PM What's interesting is that white voters are 14% more likely to say they are paying "a lot" of attention to the race than Black voters - it stands to reason that Biden could see a slide similar to what he experienced in Iowa and New Hampshire if Black voters move away from him the way White voters have as they became more immersed in the race, a very big if.
Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Mr. Morden on November 18, 2019, 04:20:26 PM https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/sc/sc11182019_snzm94.pdf/ Likely Voters Biden: 33 Warren: 13 Sanders: 11 Buttigieg: 6 Steyer: 5 Yang: 4 Harris: 3 Booker: 2 Also: Klobuchar 1% Gabbard 1% Williamson 1% Castro, Delaney, Messam, Bennet, Bullock, Sestak, Patrick 0% Patrick debuts at 0%, and Bloomberg wasn’t included as an option. Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Mr. Morden on November 18, 2019, 04:26:20 PM white, w/ college degree:
Biden 22% Warren 18% Buttigieg 14% Sanders 8% Steyer 8% Gabbard 5% white, w/ no college degree: Biden 22% Warren 16% Sanders 14% Yang 10% Buttigieg 9% Steyer 5% black: Biden 44% Sanders 10% Warren 8% Harris 6% Steyer 4% Booker 2% city: Biden 31% Sanders 14% Warren 12% suburb: Biden 28% Warren 18% Sanders 13% rural: Biden 39% Warren 11% Sanders 7% This poll does qualify Yang, though (and I think it's the strongest poll he's gotten out of SC, period). No, Yang still needs one more poll for December. Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on November 18, 2019, 05:54:51 PM Buttigieg is at 11% with white voters and 0% with black voters. ::) Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 18, 2019, 06:07:02 PM Good polls for Biden
Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: OneJ on November 18, 2019, 06:21:16 PM Buttigieg is at 11% with white voters and 0% with black voters. ::) Same thing I was thinking, lol. Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: wbrocks67 on November 18, 2019, 06:29:04 PM Not sure why people are obsessed with Harris dropping out but not Booker, Steyer, Yang, Klobuchar, etc
Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 18, 2019, 07:39:33 PM Not sure why people are obsessed with Harris dropping out but not Booker, Steyer, Yang, Klobuchar, etc The Prmaries are almost over, once the Holidays are upon us, and Feb and Marh primaries, Biden will be the presumptive nominee 😎😎😎😎 Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Torrain on November 21, 2019, 10:21:34 AM Not sure why people are obsessed with Harris dropping out but not Booker, Steyer, Yang, Klobuchar, etc Harris' campaign is clearly on a downward spiral, and is short enough on cash, that a cannier candidate would likely start to consider a tactical departure and immediate endorsement (likely of Warren, given their shared political history). That's not to say that I don't want most of the candidates you mentioned to drop out. It's just that I think that if a candidate like Steyer is running a vanity campaign, it's a lot harder to get them to drop out, especially if they still have an effective funding apparatus. Some candidates leave because of money, while others need to taste defeat in IA and NH before they drop out. I think Harris could be persuaded by her aides to leave, in order to protect political capital, while candidates like Steyer, Yang and Gabbard will need to be resoundly defeated in order to make them consider leaving the race. Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on November 21, 2019, 10:33:41 AM Biden will win the south pretty easily. I don't see any other candidate that could take the minority vote away from him, unless Harris or Booker suddenly became viable like Obama in 2008. There is no sign of that happening.
Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 21, 2019, 10:50:53 AM The south on its own is not enough to win the nomination.
Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Gustaf on November 21, 2019, 10:53:46 AM The south on its own is not enough to win the nomination. While that's true, it's not Biden is getting obliterated elsewhere either. If he comes second in IA and NH (which seems like a plausible outcome given the polls) and wins Nevada and SC he'd be a clear frontrunner. For example. Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Tintrlvr on November 21, 2019, 10:58:46 AM The south on its own is not enough to win the nomination. While that's true, it's not Biden is getting obliterated elsewhere either. If he comes second in IA and NH (which seems like a plausible outcome given the polls) and wins Nevada and SC he'd be a clear frontrunner. For example. Biden winning Nevada after coming second in both IA and NH (unless he loses them to different candidates, I suppose, but that also seems unlikely) is implausible. At this point, Biden coming second in IA also looks implausible, although who knows. Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 21, 2019, 01:42:00 PM The south on its own is not enough to win the nomination. While that's true, it's not Biden is getting obliterated elsewhere either. If he comes second in IA and NH (which seems like a plausible outcome given the polls) and wins Nevada and SC he'd be a clear frontrunner. For example. I mean sure, and tbf he may well come in second in NH (we'll see), but at least right now he's probably looking at a third or even fourth place finish in Iowa. Obviously, a lot can happen, but I could see a distant third or fourth in Iowa costing him a lot of support from folks who assume he's the only electable candidate and if he then underperforms in NH too (also possible), I don't know that he can recover from the narratives that's gonna create. Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Sirius_ on November 21, 2019, 08:44:19 PM The south on its own is not enough to win the nomination. Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Chancellor Tanterterg on November 21, 2019, 09:40:37 PM The south on its own is not enough to win the nomination. Not really, I see little evidence Biden will do well in the Midwest. Iowa is the only midwestern state where anyone is paying attention and he’s getting killed there. Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Annatar on November 21, 2019, 09:49:29 PM This isn't that good for Biden, he's only at 33% in SC, it's conceivable he could drop to around 25% by the time the primary happens there. Getting around 30% in states like SC is good but its not some kind of crushing performance, Hillary got 73% in SC by way of comparison.
Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 21, 2019, 11:20:59 PM Hopefully, Biden loses in the primary
Title: SC PrimD: Quinnipiac University: Biden with Large Lead in South Carolina Post by: ElectionAtlas on November 24, 2019, 07:25:55 PM New Poll: South Carolina President by Quinnipiac University on 2019-11-17 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4520191117015)
Summary:
Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://poll.qu.edu/south-carolina/release-detail?ReleaseID=3649) Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Adam Griffin on November 26, 2019, 12:52:40 AM The south on its own is not enough to win the nomination. Ehh, I suppose that's true in a vacuum/strictly mathematical sense, but it's not really correct in how things tend to play out (namely, that candidates will be receiving delegates & votes from other places as well). Take Clinton in 2016: her 55-43 PV win would have become 51-47 if she had merely broken even in the core states of the Confederacy. She would have tied nationally just by breaking even in those states + MD, CA, NJ & NY (and I suspect given the inherently "packed" nature of black voters in urban areas, Sanders would have eked out the delegate win nationally in a tied PV scenario). Given that there are still likely to be more candidates on the ballot when these states begin to vote (and therefore more outlets for protest/anti-Biden sentiment) than in 2016 and the fact that a candidate must hit 15% in a congressional district or statewide to receive delegates, it's not unfathomable to think that Biden could walk away with 90% or more of the delegates in a slew of Southern states (and something like 75-80% regionally; Clinton got a little over two-thirds by comparison) despite receiving a drastically smaller percentage of the vote. If this poll was/is accurate, then Biden would be snagging every state-level delegate in SC, and probably all but a few at the congressional level - with 33% of the vote. If a scenario like this plays out, then it's very possible that the difference between Biden winning or losing will be in the difference between breaking even in the South versus whatever share of the delegates he gets here. Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Mr. Morden on November 26, 2019, 01:20:56 AM If this poll was/is accurate, then Biden would be snagging every state-level delegate in SC. Except that it has 18% undecided. If those people either ended up not voting or casting their votes in the same proportion as those who are decided, then that pushes Warren above 15%. Title: Re: SC-Quinnipiac: Biden+20 Post by: Adam Griffin on November 26, 2019, 01:40:16 AM If this poll was/is accurate, then Biden would be snagging every state-level delegate in SC. Except that it has 18% undecided. If those people either ended up not voting or casting their votes in the same proportion as those who are decided, then that pushes Warren above 15%. Obviously preferences are going to change between now and voting time, and yes, there are undecideds. But the broader point still stands: if 1 or more candidates are barely at or above 15% (and several below that), then Biden will be walking away with the vast majority of the delegates from the South with as little as 35-40% of the vote. It's also worth pointing out that this is a bit of "damned if you do, damned if you don't" in that Biden stands to gain a notable amount of supporters from any other candidate dropping out, including Sanders. I haven't followed closely enough to see if there's a greater propensity for Biden to benefit from drop-offs in the South versus elsewhere, but I do imagine that to be true. That will largely just increase his PV share, which, while mainly just likely to make the vote/delegate discrepancies a bit smaller, still ends up with him winning as much or more than Clinton with a smaller vote share. This will likely become the "superdelegate issue" of 2020 if Biden manages to seal up the nomination by winning twice as many delegates in a swath of the country as his PV suggested he should win. People could say what they wanted to about Clinton and the way the South voted in 2016, but the allocation was largely fair (66-32 in PV; 68-32 in delegates) due to the two-way nature of the contest. |